I think you also have to look at the people being lynched and what kind of impact they were having in the game. For instance your third example with tierce and tug, majiffy was doing everything in his power to make his mislynch look delectable at that point. In the red wedding game, there was a show down between generic (scum) and metal sonic (town) and even though ms made a case he was mislynched instead and I stand by that largely in part because people were just annoyed.
But yeah whoever said you're going to get variations of the first answer is probably right and goes along with mastin's charisma theory.
Do influential people always provide better arguments?
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