Newbie 1436 ~ Game Over

[fferyllt]

hi guys.

catching up. shouldn't take long.

[fferyllt]

Does it work if everyone ignores it? Because quite frankly I doubt there's going to be much more discussion on the topic.

Ok, so Sakura and Gravija don't understand this gambit. That's ok.

Also, link me to a game where someone has been replaced for idiocy.

Treat me like i'm five years old. Explain exactly what you hope to accomplish with this gambit of yours. How will town react? How will scum react? How do you account for false positives, and what percent chance do you feel it has of working?


Lots of players here know me as somebody who has done quite a few gambits, including claiming scum as scum, so from one gambit guy to another, tell me what you want out of this.,

loled.

[fferyllt]

GM <3!!!

I don't know if it's possible to return to the glory days of Hyrule.

[fferyllt]

There's really two kinds of meta. Meta from games you've actually played with someone, and meta from reading old games to see how a player has played as various alignments and roles.

I find the first kind of meta (experiential meta) a lot more meaningful than meta from cold reads.

Cabd and I have both played other games with the SEs and IC in this game.

I make it easy to meta dive my games. There's a "Games" tab on my wiki page. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... yllt/Games.

[fferyllt]

Ffery has until the end of this page to form a townbloc.

You're not invited.

[fferyllt]

My point isnt the self-vote, but that he had to come and say that he was gambiting, why would you need to specify you're gambiting if you're gambiting is like applying a pressure vote and saying it's for pressure.

Is it scummy?

[fferyllt]

Wow, TSO Sakura scumteam.

That was easy.

ESPECIALLY considering who Sakura is and who she plays with, that's a scumclaim.

How so?

[fferyllt]

Light townread on cliche, agi looks like day one lynchfodder of choice.

ffery/GM, thoughts on these two? Notsci, do you agree with cliche-read?

I think ns is right about agi. Leaning town on both.

[fferyllt]

Figuring ns out, though.

[fferyllt]

BTW this is about as close to an innocent child as we're gonna get this game. Not lynching this thing EVER.

Your thoughts about ns?

[fferyllt]

You know offhand if scum ns likes to hand out townreads to newbs, or is this a research project?

[fferyllt]

I'M ANSWERING A QUESTION FOR THE WRONG PERSON LOL

*twitch*

From my experience with scum-ns, no, but he has pretty adaptive play.

What are you thinking about him?

[fferyllt]

hm

well ok

I don't wanna put my vote back anyway, that would put me at L-1

Randomvote since I have no scumreads so far. VOTE: ffery

What sort of reaction are you wanting to get with a random vote when the game is beyond the RVS stage?

[fferyllt]

hm

well ok

I don't wanna put my vote back anyway, that would put me at L-1

Randomvote since I have no scumreads so far. VOTE: ffery

What sort of reaction are you wanting to get with a random vote when the game is beyond the RVS stage?

idk

Then I am not likely to disappoint.

[fferyllt]

Ah, okay.

What're you thinking about cliche? I know you said you were ignoring him, but does his "no explanation" shtick give you any leans?

What leans does it give you?

[fferyllt]

Vote: Cabd

This game's looking good.

You're not. :/

[fferyllt]

@GM: sorry for the late response, was sleeping. Honestly, Sakura has given more actual intelligent content in 5 or 6 posts than Notsci has given in idk how many posts.

Is that scummy?

[fferyllt]

No, it's not that it's scummy, it's just rather irritating.

So, has anything posted in the thread so far struck you as scumny?

[fferyllt]

@ffer: Eh, a couple of things. Not that many though.
@GM: Yeah. From my perspective, Notsci has posted absolutely NO legitimate reasoning. It's all OMGUS-esque BS and trolling from Notsci. Sakura has posted next to nothing, but at least it makes some semblance of sense.

What things?

[fferyllt]

Why do you think Cabd is Town?

Oh hai!

I don't. Not yet anyway. Do you think Cabd is scum?

Up to this post, you've been pretty opaque and non-interactive.

[fferyllt]

Why do you think Cabd is Town?

Oh hai!

I don't. Not yet anyway. Do you think Cabd is scum?

Up to this post, you've been pretty opaque and non-interactive.

Another way to ask you the question I meant was: why don't you think Cabd is scum?

IME, Cabd does the narrative control thing as both (probably all) alignments. It's not alignment indicative. I am still trying to figure out what in his play

is

alignment indicative.

[fferyllt]

Cabd, ffery, you should join this wagon for great justice.

Do a site search for "chivvied".

[fferyllt]

Why aren't you pressuring me to put a vote down?

[fferyllt]

Well I think this is Town v Town unless one of {Sakura, T S O} flips Town in which case Cabd (tinysmall chance ffery) is Scum.

You are referring to ns vs Cabd?

I've come around to town-ns. His logic about my early vote meta is weak.

[fferyllt]

BERT!

At least it's a quick catch up read. Or it was when I joined.

[fferyllt]

Sakura, I know you are kinda sorta V/LA, but your distinct lack of presence in this game is making me nervous.

[fferyllt]

I'm gonna sheep here a sec, don't mind me.
VOTE: Cabd

Why not just lynch me instead since i haven't read anything to being really busy (save a few posts last page), instead of someone that's actually contributing?

This has a town feel.

When do you expect to be able to post more?

[fferyllt]

I'm gonna sheep here a sec, don't mind me.
VOTE: Cabd

Why not just lynch me instead since i haven't read anything to being really busy (save a few posts last page), instead of someone that's actually contributing?

This has a town feel.

When do you expect to be able to post more?

I'm not trying to be a dick but this is standard Sakura, to be honest.

As in, occasional suicidal tendencies in-game.

I'm aware of this. Context matters.

[fferyllt]

Town

notscience - paranoia + decisiveness
ag102 - transparently town motivation
Bert - mostly on basis of predecessor

Null

gravija - irritability-based votes, otherwise pretty passive
Sakura Hana - almost moved her up. null for now because lack of content. I guess the main thing that troubles me is she apparently thinks she's seeing town-Cabd this early in a game
goodmorning - staying out of most of the hot spots
Cabd - the one townish thing I'll give him is that he's not trying to get on my good side

Scum

T S O - aggressively low content, and reacted to pokes about content by showering the thread with...content

Vote: T S O

[fferyllt]

Same question to you - is this your way of working with cabd.

No, I'm not working with Cabd. I want to put him in my scum pile, but I know there's a high paranoia content in my read.

And does your vote no TSO have nothing to do with what I said about TSO in the previous post?Just making sure.

Not really. I have had him in my scum pile since my first read through, but wanted to get a better sense of some of my nulls before voting. I almost put a vote down yesterday but decided to sleep on it.

And yes, I am fully caught up skimming-wise with this game.

Do you disagree with any of my reads?

[fferyllt]

Do you disagree with any of my reads?

No, but my reads aren't solid, but I really like the vibe of your reads list.

But um why do you think it's not good that Sakura thinks she/he is seeing town-Cabd?

It's incautious at the least. She's played at least 3 games with scum-Cabd. scum-Morph the Cat accounts for three games, and there may be others.

Is there such a thing as town-Cabd?

This is a philosophical question. Does a town role PM make a town-Cabd? Yes? I have one completed town game with Cabd. In that game he lied about investigating Rift Adrift-me and getting an innocent result. It prevented my day 3 mislynch. That was one of three major gambits he pulled in the Paradox Prime mini game.

[fferyllt]

Ffery what do you call that buddy/joking attempt by him at the start of the game? It looks like that kind of attempt to me.

The reason I replaced in is because Cabd IMed me about mala needing 2 replacements. I can see why that post looks like buddying to others, but to me it was and is just acknowledgement that we intentionally replaced in to the same game.

[fferyllt]

I think what I meant to say is:

is meta useful for him...but yes, I understand what you mean. So what I can try to do is look into Cabd's play in this game in a more productive light is all

He is very self-aware about his meta. And he's fooled me before. I've scum-read him and he was adept at wriggling out of it and convincing me I was wrong.

I have a long term project that I may have a chance to start this weekend. I'm going to go back through his scum games with a fine tooth comb and see if I can develop a better scum-Cabd model.

[fferyllt]

The reason I replaced in is because Cabd IMed me about mala needing 2 replacements. I can see why that post looks like buddying to others, but to me it was and is just acknowledgement that we intentionally replaced in to the same game.

I knew that you two had to have replaced into the same game on purpose.

Honestly, I saw this playerlist and was like <333. This doesn't feel like a newbie game at all, much like my last newbie with notscience and GM where on Day 1 only 2 newbies (marjam and Joanne) were there.

IME this is often the case in newbie games, but it's a little unusual for the game to go to such a high proportion of experienced players by page 4!

[fferyllt]

I don't have the impression that town T S O is all that accommodating.

[fferyllt]

What gives you that impression?

[fferyllt]

I don't have the impression that town T S O is all that accommodating.

But you're calling me scum.

Yes. I didn't expect town-you to step it up to such an extent right after I called you on your lack of content.

Also, you deflected my post about Sakura coming off a little townish in the post you characterized as self-sacrificing.

You focused on the self-sacrificing aspect and totally ignored that it was a defense of Cabd. Why would one scum baldly volunteer to be the lynch when the other scum is coming under fire?

[fferyllt]

I don't have the impression that town T S O is all that accommodating.

But you're calling me scum.

Yes. I didn't expect town-you to step it up to such an extent right after I called you on your lack of content.

Also, you deflected my post about Sakura coming off a little townish in the post you characterized as self-sacrificing.

You focused on the self-sacrificing aspect and totally ignored that it was a defense of Cabd. Why would one scum baldly volunteer to be the lynch when the other scum is coming under fire?

Why do you think I'm lazy as Town?

It's not about laziness. It's about abruptly stopping what you are doing and doing something else when you're called on it.

And I think Sakura would try it because she knows the reaction it elicits. I think she'd try it because it specifically got a reaction out of you in a game I cannot talk about for various reasons.

I've seen Sakura's fatalism in a bunch of completed games where she has been scum and town. Fatalism qua fatalism doesn't do much for me anymore.

You are positing a Sakura/Cabd team, or you were:

Sakura-Cabd team.

Game nailed.

So, let's look at how this works.

- Cabd gets some votes.

- Sakura freaks and says "lynch me instead".

- Sakura gets lynched and flips scum.

What happens next? And how was that helpful to a Sakura/Cabd scum team?

[fferyllt]

No, step 3 is the problem.

Sakura does that as a suicidal play because

she knows it works on you.

And it's working right now.

Sakura isn't going to flip because if I went for her then Cabd would turn on me for going for an "easy lynch." It works both ways.

Sakura has done some degree of suicidal play in every recent completed game I have with her save one where she was hydraing with Nacho. Maybe in every completed game save that one. The majority of those games she has been town.

I may be kidding myself that I can tell the difference between town fatalism, scum fatalism and scum fake fatalism, but I have seen all three from her and I do think I can tell the difference.

When you're asked for content and then you give it, isn't that a sign of someone who wants to show their thought process?

Ffery, I want your opinion on Sakura, opinion on Cabd, and opinion of them as a scumteam.

Sakura town. Cabd maybe scum. Scumteam - not likely.

I can see scum-Cabd coming up with yet another way to fuck with my mind, but he came into the game the same time I did and he would have had no chance to lay the groundwork with Sakura or any other hypothetical scumbuddy in the pregame. It's going to be totally impromptu and without much help from his scumbuddy, or it's not going to happen until day 2. That goes for any gambit, not just one designed to screw with my head.

Unvote

Not so sure about you now. You seem more interested in convincing me you're right about your scum reads than I'm wrong about my read of you.

[fferyllt]

And yeah, I think I've convinced myself Sakura is town. Or at least not scum with Cabd.

[fferyllt]

T S O if you stop engaging me after I take my vote off you I'm going to be pissed.

[fferyllt]

Your last sentence is the part that makes no sense to me. Sakura basically offers to be lynched instead of Cabd. She flips scum. What's likely to happen next?

[fferyllt]

Maybe he can talk his way out of it without getting a scumbuddy lynched in his place.

We're talking about Cabd here.

[fferyllt]

Ffery can I have meta of Sakura doing it as scum and as Town?

As town: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5222069 This was a self-hammer

As scum not faking it (I think) - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p5154079 This was L-1

This game is a twofer: As scum faking it (I think) http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5088017. As scum in the same game self-hammering: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5103138

As town: this one seemed mostly frustration. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5161695 and this one looked like pure fatalism. http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5215726

There are other examples that I'm not going to bother looking up. These are 3 games I played with her and one I modded.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, some food for thought

Sakura under pressure-

Town- AtE, OMGUS.
Scum- srsface

And it could be her sacking herself to keep Cabd alive longer.

Yeah I didn't miss this. I think I commented on the last sentence.

I'm mulling it over.

[fferyllt]

248 - You want to put Cabd in your scumpile but...you can't because...paranoia? Wat?

It's complicated.

[fferyllt]

Pretty much shellacked by GoodCop_BadCop and Ms Marangal. And people wonder why I'm so paranoid

[fferyllt]

Anything to say about the gamestate?

[fferyllt]

I'm trying to think if you've ever called me null before. Maybe one game.

[fferyllt]

Also, notsci is town.

[fferyllt]

That was the game I was thinking about.

[fferyllt]

Also, notsci is town.

Convince me?

He's reminding me of the R~~ part of Shiny Hydragea. If I'm wrong about which head R~~ was then my read goes a little flaky but still probtown.

[fferyllt]

What is your read of Cabd, bert?

[fferyllt]

BTW I kinda wondered if Shiny really has 3 heads.

[fferyllt]

Wait, no you said you don't know how to read Cabd. But you want him to sort me?

[fferyllt]

GM, you low level of engagement (and long-ish absence) is starting to bug me.

[fferyllt]

I feel the same about Sakura's absence.

do you think GM's slow start should be worrisome?

Sakura was on V/LA and she managed a few posts during the time. If she doesn't step it up now that she's supposedly back, I'll have some problems.

With GM it's really more the low level of engagement. I kinda expected some significant catch up from her yesterday. Our last MS game together she was scum. She kinda messed with me on day 1 of that game. She made a joking reference to that in a post right after my replace-in. Other than that, I feel like any reach-out has mostly been from my end.

Lack of reach out or sorting effort from Cabd has also bothered me, but jury duty.

Overall he's reminding me of the Perpetual MYLO game. :/

[fferyllt]

If she doesn't step it up now that she's supposedly back, I'll have some problems.

I'm already stepping it up, are you having problems?

What was your read of Bert's predecessor? What's the rationale for your vote? The reason you posted doesn't tell me much.

[fferyllt]

If she doesn't step it up now that she's supposedly back, I'll have some problems.

I'm already stepping it up, are you having problems?

What was your read of Bert's predecessor? What's the rationale for your vote? The reason you posted doesn't tell me much.

I don't even remember how his predecessor felt atm, but i ISO'd him and that was a weak town lean, but i cant get much out of 5 posts.

Bert on the other hand, I'm not liking his gut reasonings looks like an easy way to get mislynches like in mismatching flavor mafia.

The gut stuff is such a feature of his town game, I think he basically has to emulate that as scum. What makes you think his gut feels aren't genuine in this game?

[fferyllt]

Yes it is done, and still T S O and Sakura with low-and-unlikely chance of Cabd.

The Sakura read puzzles me, but I know I'm swimming upstream there. The Cabd read astounds me. Aside from that Rage mini game, have you played with Cabd when he's not town? What games?

[fferyllt]

Acceptable lynches today:

Cabd, Sakura, TSO

Pick one and stick.

Why are you guys trying to meta cabd

He has expicitly stated that he changes how he plays each g ame

There's stuff you can change, and stuff that's hard to change. I am making a longterm project of this.

[fferyllt]

The Rage and the Achievement, both with Morph.It's not that I find him scummy as such, more that I find him the least towny of everyone I'm not reading as Scum

I misinterpreted the emphasis you were putting on "unlikely".

But, as a side note, Morph is a joint venture of Cabd and me. Why am I not in that pool?

[fferyllt]

Acceptable lynches today:

Cabd, Sakura, TSO

Pick one and stick.

Why are you guys trying to meta cabd

He has expicitly stated that he changes how he plays each g ame

There's stuff you can change, and stuff that's hard to change. I am making a longterm project of this.

Let me know how that works out (entirely serious)

Why are you townreading cabd?

I'm not?

[fferyllt]

@GM: Your question is "Really?" Answer is: I don't remember, I might have had a point back then, but I don't remember it anymore.

Interesting.

The Rage and the Achievement, both with Morph.It's not that I find him scummy as such, more that I find him the least towny of everyone I'm not reading as Scum

I misinterpreted the emphasis you were putting on "unlikely".

But, as a side note, Morph is a joint venture of Cabd and me. Why am I not in that pool?

I didn't realize you forgot your hydra posts were signed, or that you were hydra-ing this game, because obviously finding one of you less town instantly means I have to go the same direction with the other.

I am, after all, completely incapable of differentiating you as players.

We signed in the Rage game. You were in that game for a short period of time. We didn't sign in Achievement Unlocked. I've gotten mixed reviews about how easy we were to differentiate in that game, which is why I'm curious.

[fferyllt]

the last link you gave messed up all my preconceptions about Sakura's hammering as alignment.

damn.

you're sure you can read it? I don't want to know how, I just want to know.

like neverlynch sure? Not that sure. But pretty comfortable she's town based what's in the thread so far. I've pushed back on a few things she's posted and been mostly happy.

The one thing she posted that I'm still not happy about was that post about agi102 stating he was gambiting and comparing it to announcing a pressure vote. I asked her if it was scummy. I don't think she replied

[fferyllt]

I can see scum-Cabd coming up with yet another way to fuck with my mind, but he came into the game the same time I did and he would have had no chance to lay the groundwork with Sakura or any other hypothetical scumbuddy in the pregame. It's going to be totally impromptu and without much help from his scumbuddy, or it's not going to happen until day 2. That goes for any gambit, not just one designed to screw with my head.

What do you think of Cabd's trajectory so far? Comments?

I just found this question rereading the thread.

He telegraphed his TSO vote in post 137 right after TSO put down the naked vote. But, it's pretty perfunctory as trajectories go. I think I made a better argument for scum-TSO and I concluded I was likely wrong.

His trajectory on me is maybe more interesting. The end-of-page townbloc challenge is something I think he's done before. I didn't give much indication who I was townreading until the next page or two just to give him something to talk to me about. He didn't. Aside from making "null", "sort later" noise I don't think he's voluntarily interacted with me at all since a few hours after we replaced in.

[fferyllt]

I really don't know what to make of that lack of interaction, tbh. Discounting the Perpetual MYLO game, he's interacted with me a fair bit in every game we've completed so far, regardless of his alignment. The MYLO game was demotivating for scum starting pretty early on day 1. I don't know why this game would have a similar effect on scum-Cabd. I'm chalking it up to jury duty time constraints right now.

[fferyllt]

- Why was GM's lack of activity troubling?

It's not easy to get reads on people who don't put enough posts into the game thread.

- What is "trajectory"?

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... Trajectory

(first time I've posted a link to this in a game!)

- There is metric fucktons more metaing in this game than I'm used to. I'm not good with metaing people. I really dislike this.

Some of us have played several games together before. And a couple of us are at least partially meta-based players. It's an unusual amount of meta play for a newbie game. It will probably slack off some.

[fferyllt]

Vote: T S O

I think I'm already voting him but just to be sure and also obvious...

No, your vote was on Sakura.

I think that puts T S O at L-1

I can't believe that you put him at L-1 and didn't know it.

Anybody planning to hammer T S O, declare intent to hammer first and let him role claim.

Vote: Goodmorning

[fferyllt]

Thanks. I went back to the last vote count and counted from there. Didn't realize agi's vote was incorrect.

Unvote

Still bugs me some.

[fferyllt]

So suddenly from TSO, Cabd scumteam people start seeing GM as scum.

What people are these?

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about revoting GM. Will post my thoughts on her in a bit.

[fferyllt]

There is some goodposting by GM during the first few pages. She took stances and laid down some reasoned reads.

notsci I'm thinking that Grav missing that joke is not a scumtell and that agi is actually leaning Town for me based on his line of questioning and the fact that we're having serious conversation early p2.

T S O looks a bit odd but quite frankly he looked like that the last time we played despite being confTown the entire time he inhabited the slot.

preliminary reads on 3 players there.

Ah, thanks for explaining the joke, GM.
I'm getting a few scummy vibes from agi, but not enough to make a conclusion. He keeps asking if there's a doctor, he might be attempting to figure out a night kill or something. He also claimed town, which isn't a good idea (though I think it was a joke).

This is a good post in a lot of ways. There's a lot of transparency of thought here which is very townish and there's definitely some protown motivation here.
I do disagree with some of the actual points though. There are reasons that newbtown would try to determine PRs just as much as newbscum would, and claiming town doesn't really mean anything imo.
At any rate this post has given me a nice strong townlean.

Another read with good basis.

Ok, so Sakura and Gravija don't understand this gambit. That's ok.

Also, link me to a game where someone has been replaced for idiocy.

I'm not 100% sure selfvoting counts as a gambit. Strictly speaking.

Even if you were being a complete idiot, you could really only be replaced if you were doing it on purpose.

Fair warning: many people frown on selfvotes, partly because they tend to be anti-Town and partly because they tend to be against one's wincon.

Vote: Sakura

This vote on the other hand is at the bottom of a midsized quotes wall and has no reasoning shown.

Then there are a bunch of posts including posts about Cabd and me joining the game with no mention at all of sakura. The first slight hint of reasoning is offered in 140:

@Grav: Who has provided more content thus far, Sakura or notsci?

Sakura was on v/la, but still making an appearance here and there.

In 157, another hint about her Sakura read - she reples "Really?" to grav's response to her that Sakura's provided more real content than notsci.

In 168 she votes T S O (another vote without reasoning). In her next post 186 she switches back to Sakura with no explanation.

Well I think this is Town v Town unless one of {Sakura, T S O} flips Town in which case Cabd (tinysmall chance ffery) is Scum.

^^ I remember thinking this one pinged when I first read it. "this is Town v Town" refers to the exchange between NotSci and Cabd. The pingy part though, comes next. She's doing pre-flip associations here. I need to go back and check a couple of games to be sure, but I am pretty sure GM has actively discouraged pre-flip/day 1 associative stuff in other games we've played.

Despite that tho, I haven't seen GM do much of anything and just tries to get me dead just like in monks and masons

Pot, meet kettle.

V/LA til Monday.

^ a no u.

I think I need to reread this, but I doubt my opinions will change much.

Given her posts/vote today this one in particular is ironic. She doubts her opinion will change but apparently she doesn't remember where her vote was. And the reread didn't refresh her memory.

Yes it is done, and still T S O and Sakura with low-and-unlikely chance of Cabd.

Consistency in the above though.

As far as posts of interest that brings me up to today. Kaze's point that the sloppiness/forgetfulness is more likely to come from town than scum resonates. I know that's the case for me. I'm meticulously careful about my stances and where my vote is as scum.

Her ISO shows a vague but discernable trajectory on sakura. Her initial vote on T S O was unexplained, and there's nothing in her later posts that sheds light on why he's in her scumpile, much less why she thinks she has her vote on him.

[fferyllt]

Can we please for the love of god get votes back on scum-cabd?

No comment on the GM cases?

[fferyllt]

What's your conclusion about GM, Ffery? Yeah, I skimmed it all. First part you list what's town about her, and then the second part you list what's bothering you. What do you want me to comment on, specifically?

I'm thinking scum.

I want to see her response to the assorted walls and I want to see Cabd's promised effort n stuff before putting my vote back down.

[fferyllt]

This is what I wanted to talk to Ffery and everyone else about:

Fine. You want your 1v1? You're not really going to get it until I think you're scum. So you get a 1v0. Go ahead, make a proper case for me and I'll put in special effort just for you to show you how you're entirely wrong.

In other news, i'm still town as fuck, so screw you TSO. You won't be able to mislynch me.

It's what I call the "intimidation factor." Why is Cabd resorting to this, and is it alignment-indicative or a tell in any way, shape, or form? Surely, this looks like it's supposed to arouse fear in the other and persuade someone to back down from attacking him?

Why not talk it out, or at least be more reachable for everyone

Tell me what you think, please?

It seemed more dismissive than intimidating.

I didn't play Red Wedding, but I watched it at times, and Cabd replaced into that game into a town slot that was the leading bandwagon at the time.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

Look at 551 and 561.

I'm trying to think if I've seen him dismissive as scum. Maybe in the Xenologue game. We were Morph-scum in that game and ProHawk was scumreading us pretty emphatically.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5200305

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5201056

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p5217207

[fferyllt]

as you apparently are as town* typo.

It seemed more dismissive than intimidating.

OK. I skimmed the examples you provided in those links. I'm not sure what to think, then. I feel the dismissiveness was more unyielding here compared to those examples which were more or less milder. I don't know what I'm trying to say.

I'm not sure either. I get the "unyielding' descriptive. I felt like th red wedding examples were much less biting. The Xenologue examples were snarky and maybe discrediting.

Meh.

I don't want to lynch him, I guess. Not based on what he's posted so far.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, what do you think of Kaze? You said she made a good point about GM's carelessness probably being more likely to be coming from town. Other than that, I can't find you having commented about that slot in the last couple of days.

I recently did a meta dive on Kaze. His game has been evolving pretty quickly. His first game at MS was a scum game. All his games since then have been town. His tone has gotten lighter and less formal with every game. The stuff that has stayed the same about his town games is reasoned stances and observations. I should go back and look at some of those games, though. IIRC he's been mislynched 2-3 times. I didn't pay attention to why he was mislynched. Was more interested in looking for differences in tone and expressiveness by alignment.

[fferyllt]

@Mala, agi102 unvoted TSO

Hope things calm down for you soon!

[fferyllt]

Sure I'm caught up

I don't have special thoughts about anyone

I'd use my vote if I did

Please try harder.

I'd like more minds working against scum please.

You're all metaing (or at least that's what skimming tells me), and I'm lost in the sea of metaing.

Don't worry about the meta stuff. It's possible (maybe even better sometimes) to evaluate players purely on what they post in the current game.

Win condition is what motivates players. Their specific role and their long term goals and principles about the game also affect motivation, but you can do a lot without knowing anything about how people approach specific power roles.

Motivation drives in-thread behaviors. And that is what we as players can actually see.

It's a reverse engineering process, getting from what a person posts to the motivations behind those posts. Town's motivation is to find and lynch scum, and to find other town to work with. Scum's motivation is to get town lynched instead if possible, and to prevent town from reaching good consensus and working relationships with each other.

Think about what players are doing and have done, and how those actions have furthered town goals, versus scum goals.

However today turns out, surviving town players will have more data to work with on day 2.

[fferyllt]

And then he mentioned ffery being a "paranoid chick." Am I missing something here?

That post that he made with a bunch of the gambits he's played as scum? Some of them were played against me, and they worked. Some of them he and I played together as Morph, and they worked. And the gambits he played as town? Some of those he played as town in a game where I was town. Including fake-claiming a cop-innocent result on me when he was vanilla town to derail my mislynch.

That's what he means by paranoid. I don't take anything he does at face value. And I don't trust my ability to identify when he's scum.

The bolded below are my comments.

To futher explain the paranoia I get....


An abridged history of "Gambits and Shit Cabd has Pulled in Mafia"

Chapter One: As Town
-Fakeclaim psychologist in RVS to get the SK to claim
-Fake a cop innocent on a townread

in a game we played, both town. The fake innocent results were on me.

-Fakeclaim nuetral survivor in 3-man lylo with the other two crossed -

in the same game as above

-Faked having a QT with a dead player

in the same game as above

-Faked a posting restriction to fly under the radar
-Faked a cop guilty on a huge scumread (they flipped scum)

Chapter Two: As Scum
-Claimed scum to get a daykill

our hydra

-Faked hours of metadiving

I think this might have been a game where he was scum and I was town. Or he actually did the hours of metadiving in that game

-Coasted on a hider claim to a perfect win (TWICE)

our hydra was one of these

-Used dead people to leverage my case against another player

our hydra

-Watcher-guiltied my own teammate in MYLO to go on to win

he was scum, I was town

-Pointed out my partner's scumflip on page one of a newbie
-Faked a towntell

[fferyllt]

@Mala I unvoted a while back.

[fferyllt]

Gotcha. If there's such a distinction between your town/scum games like you say there is, it is weird that he is reading you as null when he has already listed other reads. Maybe you take more effort to read, despite him knowing your play very well??

TBH I think how easy I am to read depends on scumhunting style and I haven't really figured out what styles tend to fail on me. I pretty much just carry on, and trust that my behaviors will reflect my motivations and hence my alignment, though the amount of time that takes may vary by player and by game.

Cabd apparently sometimes can't read me quickly when he's town. Or he plays that confusion up for the sake of when he's scum. Or a little of both.

[fferyllt]

Not terribly impressed.

The part about fluctuating wagons, I'm not sure what she means or why that would make her want to move her vote.

[fferyllt]

houghts on Kaze this game? What is your read? I asked you what you think earlier, and you came up with this response...which doesn't help that much within the context of this game. I feel like I might have been easily fooled for a while yesterday when Kaze was interacting with me. TSO's observation actually reaffirms what was farther in the back of my mind yesterday.

I've done a meta dive to develop a sense of his tone as different alignments, but what I came away with was an impression of someone whose game is changing pretty rapidly. His one scum game was also his first game, and the tone was pretty formal compared to more recent games. So, adjusting for the direction his game changes have taken, the big difference to me between his scum game and his town games is that the first game's posts felt organized with tight, well defined stances. In other games, his stances and reactions to game events have been more disorganized and hence fluid.

This is a scum/town difference I see in quite a few players who don't have really deep experience at mafia, and I think it's where the "informed" part of informed minority shows up in newer players.

Applying these thoughts to this game - His stances so far have been pretty fluid which feels town. There has been some hedginess or maybe waffling, though, which pings a little. I don't worry too much about waffling (changing stance), but hedging (e.g., fencesitting) tends to get my attention.

I want to factor in my impression of his predecessor. Gravija had a really strong newb vibe, and was reacting to stuff that irritated him without paying much attention to whether what irritated him was scummy. In newbie games I try to sort new players quickly and then mostly stop worrying about them if I think they are town. That's kinda where I was at with Gravija. I don't think he would have been as open in his responses to "yeah but is that scummy?" questions if he were scum. But, aside from the irritable reactions, he seemed kinda passive. IIRC he was the most townward of my null reads when I posted a reads list. At the time, I was thinking hard about moving both him and Sakura to my town pile.

The waffly/hedgy stuff bugs me enough that I want to call Kaze leaning town, not strong town.

[fferyllt]

I don't know if I'm officially on the GM wagon or not. Making it official.

Vote goodmorning

[fferyllt]

heh

[fferyllt]

Awesome. No more excuses accepted for lurking away your wagons.

[fferyllt]

Do you think that this is me playing like the MYLO game to make you think I'm town, do you think it's me being apathetic/busy town, or do you not yet know which of the two you feel it is?

I want to think that you wouldn't talk me into joining this game and then say oh shit not scum again, and go apathetic for some reason. The perpetual mylo game was a sort of unique meshing of game mechanic and player list, and that meshing made it a demotivating game for scum.

But, realistically being kidnapped by jury duty is what it is, and your lack of appearance isn't alignment indicative. It's just annoying as fuck to be on the threshold of nightfall and not have much to judge you by.

[fferyllt]

Ffery have you read mala's Castle Mafia? I think that's a great example of how bert fakes his gut as far as scum games go. He was more coastish in mismatching flavor, that game went on longer and he was not obvtown'd.

I haven't read it. I'll have a look tonight.

[fferyllt]

I'm here and posting and shit. What are your thoughts now about GM?

Yes you are.

Still not liking her. However, I have been demonstratively terrible at reading her in most of the games we've played. I let her skate as scum in the two MS games I played with her where she was scum. And I've been in on her mislynch a couple times.

Do you have an opinion?

[fferyllt]

Do you think that this is me playing like the MYLO game to make you think I'm town, do you think it's me being apathetic/busy town, or do you not yet know which of the two you feel it is?

I want to think that you wouldn't talk me into joining this game and then say oh shit not scum again, and go apathetic for some reason. The perpetual mylo game was a sort of unique meshing of game mechanic and player list, and that meshing made it a demotivating game for scum.

But, realistically being kidnapped by jury duty is what it is, and your lack of appearance isn't alignment indicative. It's just annoying as fuck to be on the threshold of nightfall and not have much to judge you by.

I actually salivate at the thought of drawing scum to town you again. This game is the most fun when the town team is a significant challenge and then I still fool the fuck out of people when they ought to know better. That's by far my favorite type of moment in the game of mafia.

Trust me, sitting through all those fucking sidebars and objections wasn't anything less than "annoying as fuck" either.

Especially annoying as fuck when you couldn't be in the game thread fooling the fuck out of me?

[fferyllt]

Actually, TBQH, when I'm scum, I leave ffery alone at least a day or two. She's one of the players I'm best at manipulating. My plans have only failed once (MYLO) and even then that was mostly due to apathy (and nacho being able to read me better as well).

This is so convenient. As town you leave me alone for a couple days because one of the best meta-players at MS inexplicably has a blind spot where my shitty scum game is concerned.

And as scum you leave me alone because I'm manipulable.

[fferyllt]

Well, Paradox Prime was maybe anomalous in that respect. At least for me.

[fferyllt]

wifom bucket still overflowed, though.

[fferyllt]

So much meta talk about games I've never heard of.

I refuse to do homework. Supplemental reading was not something I signed up for.

Game names are a sort of shorthand in the sorting process. I don't know how useful the convo is to other players tbh.

But, I think you'll see references to prior games when you're playing with meta-based players, because they do make a decent shorthand for people who either played or read the referenced games.

[fferyllt]

Talk to me about Bert, Cabd.

[fferyllt]

Would reading them help one make better scumhunting decisions, in your opinion?

I know some people hold the idea that "if you didn't play with them, it isn't meta" but idk where I stand on that.

Experiential meta is way more useful to me than cold meta. But, I still use cold meta to some extent in many games.

You could certainly track the back-and-forth that Cabd and I have had in other games via ISOs, where we were t v t, t v s, s v t. We've played 3 scum games as a hydra, and in those games we weren't interacting with each other - we were both interacting with other players. So maybe not as useful for sorting us as individuals.

[fferyllt]

So much meta talk about games I've never heard of.

I refuse to do homework. Supplemental reading was not something I signed up for.

Game names are a sort of shorthand in the sorting process. I don't know how useful the convo is to other players tbh.

But, I think you'll see references to prior games when you're playing with meta-based players, because they do make a decent shorthand for people who either played or read the referenced games.

I can start linking them to allow others to follow along i guess.

Talk to me about Bert, Cabd.

Seems he got a gut transplant from AL Capone, because his gut is similar to castle and doesn't remind me of the newbie game he mis-read and mis-lynched you in.

You haven't tried to add him to your townbloc in this game. That newbie game was mostly my fault for making a huge miscalculation about how well he knew my play style.

Even so, I was half convinced at times that his paranoia was manufactured.

[fferyllt]

We're trying to cram a week's worth of sorting into a few hours.

[fferyllt]

I have a castle mafia game to read.

[fferyllt]

I'm about halfway through. Bert seems a lot more serious in this game than in that one. I assume your talking about the way he flipped back and forth on macmollie? There were other stance-changes but the macmollie stuff looked over the top.

[fferyllt]

There's some sort of karma involved in me meta-ing a 130+ page game.

[fferyllt]

Ok. I didn't read the whole thread. I read his ISO and switched to contextual here and there.

And then I did the same in this game.

I am not seeing it I guess. The Castle game is Bert writ large, almost burlesquing his town game. It was over the top in nearly every dimension.

I'm really sleepy, though. I'll reread some sections of Castle tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

So when Cabd votes Bert he breaks out instantly, that's quite a bit overreacting but i'd understand with the short deadline, his latest posts are killing my townread on him. I'll think about it within the next few

P-Edit: Nevermind that OMGUS is bad

Unvote
Vote: Bert

This is a bad vote.

[fferyllt]

What the fuck did I just read?

Town flail. You just read town flail.

[fferyllt]

Like you said, there's no scum motivation. But yeah, this is town Bert.

[fferyllt]

Cabd you were going to say something definitive about GM last night?

[fferyllt]

I was gonna say why the hell would someone declare intent?

[fferyllt]

So Cabd was that reaction test a twofer?

[fferyllt]

Why are you leaning town on her?

And who are you leaning scum on?

[fferyllt]

I'm going to reread the narnia micro brb.

What about my other question

[fferyllt]

In the Narnia game she didn't push me to explain stances. There wasn't a whole lot of pushing on others either, and in fact she seemed to try to shut down explorations of stances at times (the line of questioning I was following on BROseidon is the most obvious example, but not the only one). I feel like this game is similar in that respect. She actually bestirred herself to meta dive enough to see if she could figure out another player's alt based on my not picking up an RVS vote in a past game. I don't recall her ever doing obvious meta checks as town. And I don't think she's made an obvious meta check here. Just experiential stuff.

In that game, she pushed for her lynch choices, even when both viable wagons turned out to be on town on day 1. The Kdub push during the last couple of days of day 1 are an example. Interestingly she commented early on that she didn't think she'd be able to successfully push a lynch on me if I were scum because she isn't that convincing in general or something. She's not pushing much to get her scum choices lynched in this game. Did she ever post that Sakura case you asked her for?

Objectively, I think my case on her is pretty good. But, this game doesn't look much like her Narnia play.

[fferyllt]

I don't think you've made a case on TSO.

[fferyllt]

How about a small case?

[fferyllt]

How about a small case?

[fferyllt]

I don't want to vote TSO.

I got such a town sense when he was arguing with me. He wasn't trying to convince me I was wrong about him. He was trying to convince me I was wrong about my other reads.

I think he's town.

[fferyllt]

bitter? What does that have to do with what I just posted?

[fferyllt]

I don't want to vote TSO.

I got such a town sense when he was arguing with me. He wasn't trying to convince me I was wrong about him. He was trying to convince me I was wrong about my other reads.

I think he's town.

I disagree somewhat but I can come up for air and go with you on this one. Let's say TSO is town. Does the chance of GM being scum fluxuate based upon TSO-town, or are the two reads independent?

Independent. Though I think when I had TSO in my scum pile I was still null on GM.

[fferyllt]

It's my rebuttal thing to you're town-reasonings.

He just seems too appeasy and trying to assume power of wagons he didn't actually start.

The whole "SCUM TSO WOULDNT DO X" is bad too

"SCUM TSO WOULDNT DO X" is a gross oversimplification. Scum do a lot of the same things town do by design, by accident and by necessity. How things are done is what usually reveals motivation.

[fferyllt]

I'll vote him later if it's that or nolynch.

And be pissed.

[fferyllt]

Spoiler: my original case

There is some goodposting by GM during the first few pages. She took stances and laid down some reasoned reads.

notsci I'm thinking that Grav missing that joke is not a scumtell and that agi is actually leaning Town for me based on his line of questioning and the fact that we're having serious conversation early p2.

T S O looks a bit odd but quite frankly he looked like that the last time we played despite being confTown the entire time he inhabited the slot.

preliminary reads on 3 players there.

Ah, thanks for explaining the joke, GM.
I'm getting a few scummy vibes from agi, but not enough to make a conclusion. He keeps asking if there's a doctor, he might be attempting to figure out a night kill or something. He also claimed town, which isn't a good idea (though I think it was a joke).

This is a good post in a lot of ways. There's a lot of transparency of thought here which is very townish and there's definitely some protown motivation here.
I do disagree with some of the actual points though. There are reasons that newbtown would try to determine PRs just as much as newbscum would, and claiming town doesn't really mean anything imo.
At any rate this post has given me a nice strong townlean.

Another read with good basis.

Ok, so Sakura and Gravija don't understand this gambit. That's ok.

Also, link me to a game where someone has been replaced for idiocy.

I'm not 100% sure selfvoting counts as a gambit. Strictly speaking.

Even if you were being a complete idiot, you could really only be replaced if you were doing it on purpose.

Fair warning: many people frown on selfvotes, partly because they tend to be anti-Town and partly because they tend to be against one's wincon.

Vote: Sakura

This vote on the other hand is at the bottom of a midsized quotes wall and has no reasoning shown.

Then there are a bunch of posts including posts about Cabd and me joining the game with no mention at all of sakura. The first slight hint of reasoning is offered in 140:

@Grav: Who has provided more content thus far, Sakura or notsci?

Sakura was on v/la, but still making an appearance here and there.

In 157, another hint about her Sakura read - she reples "Really?" to grav's response to her that Sakura's provided more real content than notsci.

In 168 she votes T S O (another vote without reasoning). In her next post 186 she switches back to Sakura with no explanation.

Well I think this is Town v Town unless one of {Sakura, T S O} flips Town in which case Cabd (tinysmall chance ffery) is Scum.

^^ I remember thinking this one pinged when I first read it. "this is Town v Town" refers to the exchange between NotSci and Cabd. The pingy part though, comes next. She's doing pre-flip associations here. I need to go back and check a couple of games to be sure, but I am pretty sure GM has actively discouraged pre-flip/day 1 associative stuff in other games we've played.

Despite that tho, I haven't seen GM do much of anything and just tries to get me dead just like in monks and masons

Pot, meet kettle.

V/LA til Monday.

^ a no u.

I think I need to reread this, but I doubt my opinions will change much.

Given her posts/vote today this one in particular is ironic. She doubts her opinion will change but apparently she doesn't remember where her vote was. And the reread didn't refresh her memory.

Yes it is done, and still T S O and Sakura with low-and-unlikely chance of Cabd.

Consistency in the above though.

As far as posts of interest that brings me up to today. Kaze's point that the sloppiness/forgetfulness is more likely to come from town than scum resonates. I know that's the case for me. I'm meticulously careful about my stances and where my vote is as scum.

Her ISO shows a vague but discernable trajectory on sakura. Her initial vote on T S O was unexplained, and there's nothing in her later posts that sheds light on why he's in her scumpile, much less why she thinks she has her vote on him.

Bringing this forward. More in a bit.

[fferyllt]

Have I not been showing development in my Sakura read?

TSO is probably trying to hardbus his scumbuddy, thus why he's so insistent on him being the shepherd to the flock.

OK, so you think it's TSO-Cabd or TSO-Sakura.

And you're voting Cabd. I see. Hmm....

BTW Cabd I thought you misread this last night but wanted to leave it for Bert to sort because screwing up lines of questioning and all that.

He was calling notsci on the you-vote when notsci had TSO as the common denominator in his scum team hypotheticals.

I couldn't figure out why that post drew your vote.

[fferyllt]

For now, I notice I haven't posted a real readslist.

Very Town: notsci, Bert, agi, Kaze

Less Town: ffery

Still pretty null though slightly townleaning: Cabd

Scum: Sakura

Very Scum: T S O

EDIT: As per your 508, will elaborate later. It takes time when there are suddenly four more pages.

Partial quote of a GM post. This points away from T S O being a partner if she's scum. In the two games where I played with scum-GM she did not mega-scumread her partner.

[fferyllt]

This is her response to my quotestripe case.

Spoiler: fferyllt's 442

Ok, so Sakura and Gravija don't understand this gambit. That's ok.

Also, link me to a game where someone has been replaced for idiocy.

I'm not 100% sure selfvoting counts as a gambit. Strictly speaking.

Even if you were being a complete idiot, you could really only be replaced if you were doing it on purpose.

Fair warning: many people frown on selfvotes, partly because they tend to be anti-Town and partly because they tend to be against one's wincon.

Vote: Sakura

This vote on the other hand is at the bottom of a midsized quotes wall and has no reasoning shown.

I kinda figured my "really?" ing of her would speak for itself.

But, that was it as far as trajectory on the vote until much later. The only thing about this that really suggests town, and it's GM's scummy as hell looking town at that, is that she didn't do much work to push Sakura's lynch harder. I'm pretty sure she didn't respond to Cabd's request for a Sakura case. If I'm wrong, I'll find it as I work forward from here.

Then there are a bunch of posts including posts about Cabd and me joining the game with no mention at all of sakura.

She wasn't posting frequently, or much content. Not much to say except whinge about her V/LA, and that's not alignment-indicative.

This is basically an admission that her case is shit on Sakura, I think

In 168 she votes T S O (another vote without reasoning). In her next post 186 she switches back to Sakura with no explanation.

That's to do with the fluctuation of the wagons, I believe.

I still don't get this. Maybe someone can explain it to me.

Well I think this is Town v Town unless one of {Sakura, T S O} flips Town in which case Cabd (tinysmall chance ffery) is Scum.

^^ I remember thinking this one pinged when I first read it. "this is Town v Town" refers to the exchange between NotSci and Cabd. The pingy part though, comes next. She's doing pre-flip associations here. I need to go back and check a couple of games to be sure, but I am pretty sure GM has actively discouraged pre-flip/day 1 associative stuff in other games we've played.

I do discourage pre-flip/D1 associative stuff. None of my tells on them are associative. They are just 2 strong scumreads in a game where I have quite a few strong townreads.

I can accept this. But, I think there is something to the lining up lynches argument because she's pre-positioning on the new second scum read in the event the first flips town.

I think I need to reread this, but I doubt my opinions will change much.

Given her posts/vote today this one in particular is ironic. She doubts her opinion will change but apparently she doesn't remember where her vote was. And the reread didn't refresh her memory.

I addressed this in a post to I think Kaze.
I don't tend to worry about reading myself too carefully on reread, as I like to be able to form opinions somewhat fresh.

This actually is maybe a town point, to be unconcerned about the appearance of not paying much attention.

[fferyllt]

Not terribly impressed.

The part about fluctuating wagons, I'm not sure what she means or why that would make her want to move her vote.

As I said:

186 - Why, though?

Because.
I am thoroughly satisfied with a lynch on either one (the other is T S O, obvs) at this point and so will continue to sway between them until it becomes clear which one is today's lynch (probably T S O, probably the better option).

Ok, so this is where she explains about fluctuating wagons. She has Sakura as scum and T S O as very scum. And it feels like she's checked out from being active in figuring things out. She has her two scum reads from a few days earlier and is passive as far as scumhunting goes at this point, not refining reads.

[fferyllt]

Is Cabd bitterly sarcastic and slightly pompous regardless of alignment? Confirm/deny please.

It's my only fun tool in opens and semiopens, since I can't gambit the fuck out of things like I prefer to do.

Do reaction tests qualify as gambits? If so, I think you have another fun tool.

[fferyllt]

Ok. I didn't read the whole thread. I read his ISO and switched to contextual here and there.

And then I did the same in this game.

I am not seeing it I guess. The Castle game is Bert writ large, almost burlesquing his town game. It was over the top in nearly every dimension.

I'm really sleepy, though. I'll reread some sections of Castle tomorrow.

Was I really supposed to have a great ah hah from reading this?

This was actually what I meant by twofer, btw.

[fferyllt]

Yeah saying X is town if Y flips scum and hence Z would also be scum is totally not an association.

No. I am saying that you and T S O are two very strong scumreads of mine, and that IF AND ONLY IF one of you were to flip Town, then Cabd would be Scum.

In other words, X and Y are Scum. If I am wrong about one of them, Z is Scum.

Totally passive, reactive play here. You've done little to refine your reads on them, or on Cabd or on anyone else. You've processed what's in the thread, mostly reply to stuff directed at you, and do very little in terms of helping to get content from other players.

Yes it is done, and still T S O and Sakura with low-and-unlikely chance of Cabd.

To GM:
I know you said you're going to elaborate on these and a nice big lovely "I want to ship SakuraXnoose" fanfiction would be great.

Well, the T S O one is coming today. The Sakura one may have to wait till D2, depends how long the T S O case takes and how much it saps my will to live.

Case in point.

[fferyllt]

Don;t risk it if it ends in a NL, but wait until you're unsure of service to do anything. Bolded intent would be nice if you're leaning that way.

What have I added to my original case that resonates?

[fferyllt]

A what?

[fferyllt]

open 480?

oh god. I bet you're offering to self-hammer. :/

[fferyllt]

Cabd. Thoughts?

[fferyllt]

Any other claim as scum is sub-optimal on day one in most cases. Especially this close to deadline. I don;t know how many other options we have, though.

I'm not believing gm-scum any more. Probably enough votes to switch if Sakura's still here. Could switch onto a PR though.

[fferyllt]

heh. don't see a serious nolynch consideration on day 1 every day.

GM? You're a disinterested party! And the IC. What are your thoughts?

[fferyllt]

Actually her thoughts are probably lynch TSO. :/

[fferyllt]

I'm here too. It's hell getting posts in.

There's about 3 hours left on the clock. I'll vote before it runs out.

[fferyllt]

To talk, we have to be able to post.

Town (Bert, aji102, notsci)
Probtown (Sakura, GM)
Scum (Cabd, Kase)

Possibly subject to change based on TSO flip.

[fferyllt]

If TSO flips town I dunno. Kase has been on his butt for much of his time in the game. Might give him town points for that. Cabd's hey how about nolynch was probably not going to happen given site meta about day 1 nolynch, so suggesting it so close to deadline makes me nervous.

[fferyllt]

Nervous in a maybe he knows what the flip's going to be way.

[fferyllt]

Possibly.

What happens to your piles if TSO is scum? Town? You still feel the same as your last post about it?

[fferyllt]

Possibly.

What happens to your piles if TSO is scum? Town? You still feel the same as your last post about it?

As I mentioned, I'll be looking at you if he flips Town.

Reasoning?

[fferyllt]

:/

[fferyllt]

If TSO claims and is not counter claimed, we're lynching me, understood?

I don't want this paranoia shit sending me to a LYLO mislynch.

Page from my book.

It doesn't scan right read by you.

[fferyllt]

Unvote

[fferyllt]

My vote was still on GM. Never took it off.

[fferyllt]

I think I'm wrong.

[fferyllt]

Scum-Cabd would have no reason to throw the lynch up in the air now.

And if he's that worried that I'll get him lynched he can just NK me. It would actually be a first and he could probably sell it on the basis of he keeps me alive until I stop suspecting him when I'm scum.

[fferyllt]

^^ when he's scum.

Yeah, I'm not seeing how this works for scum-Cabd

[fferyllt]

Not lynching you.

[fferyllt]

Doing a reset in the event I'm alive tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

Didn't GM claim VT?

[fferyllt]

VT. Do it if you like. I have revised my reads slightly in that I've switched Cabd's and fffff's places.

If you don't mind waiting a bit I'd like to finish the T S O case while I can.

Yeah she did.

[fferyllt]

You think Scum know who the PRs are?

No, but GM was under a considerable amount of suspicion yesterday, and had claimed VT. She would have been lynchbait and have made me paranoid for the duration of the game. I was paranoid thinking about her during the night, for that matter.

Yeah, the argument of them framing Ffery makes sense if you are scum and want to make a framing kill.

Because let's be honest here. A newbie might think silly enough to see GM flip after saying she was gonna nail ffery, and then push to turbolynch ffery. If agi is scum, this is probably the case. I don't think agi is scum, but it's certainly a layer of wifom added to the scenario, and the kill doesn't fit my scum ffery model.

Does Ffery kill whoever she wants dead just because she absolutely doesn't want him/her alive? Agi-scum does make sense in this scenario, but man I feel I am delving into WIFOM territory that is detrimental to town so feel free to put a stop to it.

As scum, I PR-hunt/PR-avoid for scum kills, and take out players I think are threats to my team. I don't anticipate staying alive for long.

[fferyllt]

agi102 fits on a surface level, but I really didn't get any sort of scum vibe from his posts yesterday. He was involved and trying out gambits and stuff initially. When the game got pretty deep, he just seemed lost.

[fferyllt]

To be entire honest, this is the kind of kill i'd make if I was scum with ffery, or was scum in ffery's slot. But I play scum in a very unique manner so for ffery to be scum means she's lifting pages from my book. Which is technically possible after those morph scumgames.

I don't think I'd try to emulate your game as scum. Not when I could PR hunt. In the newbie game format eliminating PRs is optimal IMO.

[fferyllt]

Town (Bert, aji102, notsci)
Probtown (Sakura, GM)
Scum (Cabd, Kase)

Possibly subject to change based on TSO flip.

So, did this change? Are you gonna wait a while before you tell us why

If TSO flips town I dunno. Kase has been on his butt for much of his time in the game. Might give him town points for that. Cabd's hey how about nolynch was probably not going to happen given site meta about day 1 nolynch, so suggesting it so close to deadline makes me nervous.

Does Kaze get townpoints and why or why not?

I'm kinda stunned atm. Not just by this game and the GM NK.

At the time I was thinking that Kaze would get townpoints with a TSO townflip because it seemed to me like he didn't have a second choice lined up. Scum usually do IME.

[fferyllt]

I said usually because it does depend on experience level. Newb scum are more likely to accidentally box themselves in, but experienced scum usually keep their options open. Town players don't worry about that. If the game state means you stop worrying about a scum read, you just...move on, keep looking and question other players.

[fferyllt]

To be entire honest, this is the kind of kill i'd make if I was scum with ffery, or was scum in ffery's slot. But I play scum in a very unique manner so for ffery to be scum means she's lifting pages from my book. Which is technically possible after those morph scumgames.

This post bugs me.

[fferyllt]

It's WIFOMY. It feels like a half-accusation with no push behind it.

[fferyllt]

To be entire honest, this is the kind of kill i'd make if I was scum with ffery, or was scum in ffery's slot. But I play scum in a very unique manner

so for ffery to be scum means she's lifting pages from my book. Which is technically possible after those morph scumgames.

Didn't look like an argument against to me.

[fferyllt]

Noted.

It looked like a hedge to me.

[fferyllt]

That's kind of a relief because I was at a loss!

I'm in the midst of a reread, but have to leave off for a couple hours.

[fferyllt]

I Whiteknighted Cabd pretty hard yesterday and he and me are still living, that's... kind of troubling.

Why is it troubling?

[fferyllt]

Whatever your alignment, I think I buy the read.

[fferyllt]

NotSci, when you're around, I'd really like to hear your thoughts.

[fferyllt]

BTW this is about as close to an innocent child as we're gonna get this game. Not lynching this thing EVER.

Maybe agi is scum after all?

lol. Ffery you should chat with me about this.

Now, let's discuss the standings of this kill

1) People say this kill was probably due to a newbie- but wait! That's strange, wouldn't agi (EVEN IF HE WAS SCUM) still have someone coaching him?

The idea was explored, but I think it's pretty much dismissed for now.

2) Agi's some hardcore ML bait.

Hence pretty much dismissed.

3) GM's kill didn't net us anyinfo on anyone's alignment. High-skill scumkill.

MS has a site meta of discouraging NKA. I kinda ignore that.

4) I don't remember what Kaze's positions on NKA were previously, I'll investigate this later.

I didn't notice any NKA comments in my recent meta dive, but it's not the sort of thing I look for in initial meta analysis. I'll take a look.

You think Kaze would come up with a "high-skill" kill?

[fferyllt]

agi102, having only town and null reads at this point in a game is not really something to worry about. It happens. Every game day is an opportunity for town players to refine their reads, and for scum players to pretend to do the same. And for town players to sort each other, and for scum players to pretend to do the same.

Reread, ask questions, follow up on stuff that you think sounds off. Those are the basic tools of scumhunting.

[fferyllt]

Ask questions?

Here's a good question for you: Are you scum?

Heh.

No seriously though, i honestly don't know right now. I will try to make a conclusion on someone I think is scum, if I think ANYONE AT ALL is scum. I might tunnel.

This might be useful: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... e_At_Mafia

[fferyllt]

Also these:

Newbie Guide
Frequently Asked Questions
Commonly Used Abbreviations

GM may have posted them already.

[fferyllt]

Maybe.

I like Cabd better for it.

I agree about NKA, which is what's really bugging me about number 3. There isn't much at all there. This looks like removing someone who could be a threat but doesn't give alignment clues,

or a PRhunt

.

Are you positing that scum discounted her claim?

[fferyllt]

I started working on a case for notsci-scum yesterday. I talked myself out of it.

[fferyllt]

I started working on a case for notsci-scum yesterday. I talked myself out of it.

Why did you talk yourself out of it? Do you mind telling us (generally) what the case consisted of?

I was looking at the way he bounced his vote between sakura, TSO and Cabd especially the late day stuff. He wound up with his vote on Cabd at the end because the alternative was to hammer TSO with maybe an hour so before nightfall, ostensibly without a claim though TSO had already basically said fuck off I'm not claiming earlier day 1.

Reading it in context, I think I can see that last couple of hours worth of posts coming from town motivation. Overall, day 1 was serial tunneling.

[fferyllt]

I have my ns quote stripes from yesterday still in my drafts I think. If I do, I'll go ahead and post them.

[fferyllt]

I forgot that I switched to post links instead of quote stripes. NotSci usually doesn't quote what he's replying to, and I found that quote stripes weren't showing his trajectory very well.


--------------------
Looking at NotSci's trajectory.

Wow, TSO Sakura scumteam.

That was easy.

Earlier he'd called an agi/grav but that was in the very early part of day 1.

In 129, 146, 176 he pressures Cabd and to a lesser extent me to vote TSO.

In 178 he advances the idea that you can't (effectively?) ask questions without the pressure of a vote behind the questions. 180 "your vote is useless".

Then he votes cabd in 184 for not voting. 187 failure to use vote is scummy.

Then there's talk of 1v1 and he calls TSO scumbuddies with Cabd.

213 is kind of a kitchen sink. Agreeing with NS' earlier reads on TSO and Sakura is now scummy, plus derides Cabd's "You've seen my scumgame" defense. However, I actually agree that it's a shitty defense coming from Cabd.

286 he points me at sakura. 364 "acceptable lynches" are TSO, Cabd, Sakura.

447 tries to herd votes back onto Cabd.

Going to summarize. He declares intent to hammer TSO (multiple times) while still trying to get more traction on the Cabd wagon.

Then in 775 he votes cabd because he won't be around to change off TSO if there's a claim. TSO had already declined to claim in 567

That post by TSO wasn't the reason I had him in my town pile but it was actually a pretty good indication he was town.

[fferyllt]

However, I actually agree that it's a shitty defense coming from Cabd.

Is there even such a thing you'd consider NOT a shitty defense coming from me?

* crickets *

Didn't think so.

That one was an epic contradiction.

[fferyllt]

Otoh there's also no such thing as a reason NOT to troll ns.

At least you didn't talk him into reading a long-ass and mostly irrelevant game thread. :/

[fferyllt]

So....before I go read your analysis of notscience, do you think he's scum, or leaning scum?

It's a gut-based worry. Objectively his posts don't scream scum. But, I know he'll tunnel the crap out of players as scum as well as town.

[fferyllt]

I started working on a case for notsci-scum yesterday.

I talked myself out of it.

bert I don't think I have a case. Not from what's in the thread so far.

This may piss Kaze off, but I'm going to meta notsci.

[fferyllt]

Ffery for the love of god read the above post and tell me a Sakura/Cabd scumteam doesn't make sense.

PEDIT DAMNIT BERT

It absolutely doesn't make sense.

[fferyllt]

Okay, Ffery.

Look at it this way.

She literally just gave away their fucking plan

They make a townbloc.

Then they kill from the "scumpool" for the MLs.

It explains the GM kill perfectly.

Dude.

[fferyllt]

Ok, that went really well guys.

[fferyllt]

What was that you said yesterday about this playerlist, Cabd? Take it back

[fferyllt]

Yeah, isn't Ffery good at noticing crumbs? Hmm... and you Sakura crumbed yesterday? or Cabd yesterday? I'm confused

Yeah, Ffery doesn't make sense as scum though, townread notwithstanding

notscience/agi would make sense, if notscience really is that ignorant about what's going on in this game. but that careless to not realize GM is a VT? Weird.

Yeah I noticed crumbs. Probably not all of them because I actually learned to read PRs by behaviors, not by crumbs. I don't usually react to crumbs in-thread unless a clusterfuck happens.

[fferyllt]

Where would you put your vote?

[fferyllt]

His last post bodes well though

Are you talking about Kaze?

[fferyllt]

How's that seisure comingffery?

My siezure circuits fried about 2 Morph games ago. But, if I were going to have one, it would have been about 2 hours ago I think. Whenever my through the looking glass moment happened.

[fferyllt]

I want to say that NotSci's reaction is town because he didn't hold back or slow down in the slightest.

I wish agi and Kaze had been around

to

react.

Did you even pick up on when I caught on?

[fferyllt]

Btw ffery you can tell me how you figured it out wheeeeenever you'd like.

Or don't. Meh

I don't think I should atm, tbh. Might accidentally telegraph something.

[fferyllt]

Note my question marks. Ffery sure thinks he is.

Do you disagree?

Am I missing something?

[fferyllt]

Bert your new av changes everything.

brb have to re-meta every game you've ever played.

[fferyllt]

I agree that the time for sorting the gambits is tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

I mean had ffery speed wagoned me yesterday I'd have called her town as I went down and she probably knows that.

I didn't know that. But, I will certainly keep it in mind for an appropriate occasion!

Sakura-scum with you, I can squint and almost make that out. Almost. But, day one end makes it very unlikely.

[fferyllt]

I put Kaze on hold due to the replacement. In fact, I kinda put the game on hold waiting for the replacement because Kaze is in the group I think I want to lynch from today.

[fferyllt]

the group I think I want to lynch from today.

Which is?

The ones I need to sort are Kaze, agi102 and to a lesser extent bert and notsci. Three of those players gave me good reasons to think they're town on day 1. :/

[fferyllt]

In the meantime, ffery, what do you think about the fact that notsci is still voting me?

Probably being a stubborn fuck. Probably null wrt alignment.

[fferyllt]

Yeah maybe.

[fferyllt]

Too many irons in the fire tonight. I still like the stubborn fuck reason, but I see your line of argument. I'm not going to have time to reread/rethink for a few hours.

[fferyllt]

I didn't even see the post. I better go back and see what else I missed.

Someday, Sakura and I may do something like that as a scum team. Someday.

Don't hold your breath.

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking Syr's theorem applies.