NY 167: COMPLETELY NORMAL Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Toomai]

Vote: Wake88

for being the only player with a number in their name.

[Toomai]

[quotestack]

VOTE: Cabd / MC Makara

Um so you get on a policy lynch and then make a random vote?

[Toomai]

Actually, good question for everyone. SK is found day one. Lynch or leash? Give reasoning, there will be a grading rubric.

I don't see the point in trying to control a third party who has essentially already lost all hope of winning. There's no reason for them to follow along.

[Toomai]

Well that's better...

And that post doesnt seem faked anyway, now I'd rather lynch this guy

Unvote
Vote: Wake

VOTE: Wake88

Any particular reason why?

[Toomai]

Any particular reason why?

Reactions.

Why do you care?

Because I see votes without reasons, and I like people to have reasons so I can better follow what they're thinking.

[Toomai]

Ah, the goody two shoes player. This is confirmed Town.

No it ain't.

Vote: TheIrishPope

for that needless buddying.

He can be confirmed town when he makes his avatar spin.

I'll figure out transparent .gifs with the GIMP and get back to you.

[Toomai]

I am having a very hard time separating serious posts from joke posts right now, and this is my first Large game, so I have to ask: Are third-parties common enough in Large games that discussing them Day 1 without much justification is helpful?

[Toomai]

[quotestack]

VOTE: Cabd / MC Makara

Um so you get on a policy lynch and then make a random vote?

Why don't you pursue this more? You placean accusation without pursuing it further, why?

Well to be honest I often forget what I was last doing when I previously posted, if no one responds to it. Since you reminded me I'll-

Please don't lynch me.

I'm town.

I'm town guys.

Don't lynch me please.

...

Vote: RadiantCowbells

until he gives a decent answer as to why those posts were necessary, in addition to answering the quoted question.

[Toomai]

Seriously though I'm town.

Lynch someone else !

A real town player would have a definite lynch target, not just say "someone else".

No but seriiiiiiiiiiiously I'm a town sided player >:(

How about you be town rather than claim town. I see no reason this kind of behaviour helps either alignment at all.

[Toomai]

Mod: I voted in 195, I think you missed it.

Fixed.

[Toomai]

How sure are you that I'm not an octuplevoter who just selflynched?

100% sure, because neither you nor the mod and reviewers are blithering idiots.

You sure are blithering though. How about you comment on other players instead of parading yourself around.

[Toomai]

Because I am group scum and know for a fact that he isnt one of us, and something in the way our scumteam is set up suggests that there are no other full scumteams, but we have reason to believe that there is a SK because one of us has bulletproof.

Duh.

You're just being obtuse at this point. I'm going to attempt to ignore you until you start being useful.

I'm not quite getting where the Sakura Hana votes are coming from.

[Toomai]

I like AFB's overall presence so far.

caledfwitch needs to do something.

[Toomai]

Can we continue to skewer RadiantCowbells to play properly instead of musing about previous games?

[Toomai]

TIP still not having the most postcount

VOTE: TIP

The heck is this, there's 7 players below him in postcount, some of which have pretty much zero content.

Vote: yessiree

Here's what I hate about this game so far... There's about a half dozen players doing this meta/history/relivingtheglorydaysofanotherepicgame/casual but deliberate buddying/bs. It's obfuscating real conversation and sorting. I get it, we're all friends here. And I understand we all have our own methods of scumhunting... But this has gotten far away from productive in my opinion. Sure, there's a number of players barely posting, but this non-productive banter is enabling that behavior. It's easy to hide or lurk when the cool kids club is attracting all the attention. So, fellow cool kids, let's focus the conversation a bit better.

Quoted for truth.

[Toomai]

I don't like the tone of that defeatism.

Vote: Guyett

[Toomai]

The preachy ex-Bronco who now plays for Canada (eh)

Sorry but you have to know how to pass to play in the league up here.

Guyett does seem too easy a lynch right now.

Unvote

Leaning towards voting JacobSavage, just to make him do something.

[Toomai]

Not sure what to make of this "likeabauss vs. Rank-slot" thing.

I guess I can ask: likeabauss, are you so sure on your meta-replace-read that you would be willing to go 1-for-1? I'm not saying it's a good idea or anything, I'm asking if you're that confident.

I will be V/LA the majority of Friday and Saturday.

[Toomai]

I've decided I'm currently in favour of the likeabauss case. I just feel like he's making more sense right now.

Vote: Angry Fat BROs

Still V/LA.

[Toomai]

V/LA done.

I'll vote for whichever of o_to or AFB is necessary to lynch, since I believe fairly solidy at this point that likeabauss is town. If either target happens to be town we can just lynch him Day 2 since I see no way there's a bus here.

[Toomai]

Scum don't want to upset people who they know are town [...]

This line of thinking assumes that Guyett is scum and AFB is town, yet by your vote you think it's more likely the other way around.

[Toomai]

V/LA done.

I'll vote for whichever of o_to or AFB is necessary to lynch, since I believe fairly solidy at this point that likeabauss is town. If either target happens to be town we can just lynch him Day 2 since I see no way there's a bus here.

...Lol. You lining up lynches?

If nothing happens to change my current opinion, then yeah I guess you could say that.

[Toomai]

So, therefore, you expect the target in question to be town...?

I do not. I'm just stating my opinion of what I would do should it occur.

To put it another way - I currently believe that likeabauss is town. I'm currently convinced that [likeabauss, AFB] and [likeabauss, orcinus] are pairs of differing factions (whether I'm right about which one is town or not), and by extension that there is 1 scum in each pair.

[Toomai]

15. Toomai:lurking shitsack

Is a consistent ~1.0 posts per day not good enough for you? As of this post I have 1,291 things that need doing on my primary website, some of which no one else in the world is capable of doing, and I had a graduation in the past week. Shut up.

I, like my avatar, suck early and scale well into late game.

That doesn't mean you can phone it in.

Alright, so at this point, the FratBros lynch is failing.

Vote: orcinus_theoriginal

Also, at least one guy who voted RC in the last 24 hours is scum, just so we're clear.

[Toomai]

Also, at least one guy who voted RC in the last 24 hours is scum, just so we're clear.

If you listed who voted him in the last 24 hours and gave thoughts on those people, it would become even more clearer.

Yeah okay.

• MC Maraca in 1364. I don't blame this vote. MCM has been harping RC to do stuff all game with no result.
• TheIrishPope in 1365. I know several people are meta-reading TIP as town, but I lack that knowledge. This, as his third vote of the game, does not help; he'd stated earlier he liked RC for town, and nowhere in his ISO do I see his opinion on RC changing.
• RadiantCowbells in 1366. Yet more obfuscating stupidity.
• Cephrir in 1368. I currently feel that Cephrir is town because of how willing he is to call out what he doesn't like about the current gamestate; I don't think he's scummy for this vote because he's been saying he doesn't like any other active wagon.
• orcinus_theoriginal in 1370. In a vacuum I think this guy has been null if not slightly scummy, gut feeling more than anything.

[Toomai]

Anybody notice anything strange about Orcinus's reads list?

You mean this post where 5 names are missing? I didn't think that was a reads list more than a complaints list.

[Toomai]

I think at least it's inconsistent. If you want to lynch someone without a claim you're implying you'd want to lynch them no matter what they claim.

Unvote

for now.

[Toomai]

caledfwitch is a bad lynch. He's been basically sitting out most of the day and has a fraction of the interactions available for analysis compared to almost anyone else.

I'm not sure what a good alternative would be at this point though. I don't want to lynch the Cop claim without forcing him to provide a result of some sort, despite buying into likeabauss's opinion and mindset, and there isn't really a strong wagon on anyone right now.

[Toomai]

It almost seems like he is pushing the lynch more now we have the claim rather than re-evaluating.

Considering 1491, 1492, and 1562, I think he both re-evaluated and started pushing more.

[Toomai]

@TIP, Toomai, sangres, your opinions on caledfwitch?

Not exactly impressed. For sitting out 1,000+ posts his catchup was rather meager, and the wording of 1530 was poor; I'm not sure how orcinus is exactly an "easy wagon" now that his claim came out. That said I think lynching him today is suboptimal for reasons previously stated.

[Toomai]

BP = bulletproof? Did I use an incorrect acronym? 1shot BP is a town role?

Town role yes. Extremely convenient way of explaining why you're not dead also yes. Policy lynch candidate.

I'm heavily undecided on who to lynch. I won't support caledfwitch unless it's that or no lynch. JS would be a lurker lynch which I guess is tolerable Day 1 with this kind of indecision. orcinus I'm in favour of letting live for this day. AFB probably won't happen but I could go for him. RC would be a policy lynch, but honestly not a bad one and I'd vote it. I personally think TiP is scummy but there won't be any support there.

[Toomai]

Vote: caledfwitch

[L-1]

I still do not agree with this lynch; the wagon sprang up rather quickly and seems to exist for no reason other than to be a counterwagon to orcinus. But at this point it's either that or orcinus, and I'm not voting orcinus.

Deadline is in less than 2 days. caledfwitch should claim.

[Toomai]

I'm really conflicted now. Sangres' case on orcinus is pretty good but I still can't make myself believe it's a good idea to lynch a D1 Cop claim.

Unvote

since that's not useful anymore.

[Toomai]

Theory question: If the deadline runs out, is it better to let no lynch happen and allow things to sort out, or to lynch the heavily-disputed PR claim and at least get something out of the day?

[Toomai]

Is it better to lynch scum or not lynch scum.

>Toomai 2013

I asked a generic strategy question that may apply to this game, not one tailored to the specific situation.

Reason being, I need to know whether it's a good idea to make sure a lynch goes through even if I disagree with it, under the pretense that no lynch Day 1 does not help town.

[Toomai]

I do, but my phone doesn't!

Then stop using inferior technology to post.

Vote: Sakura Hana

My SH read is pretty null right now, but it looks like the only viableish wagon right now, and no lynch Day 1 is just bad all around. I'm voting now because the deadline's in 8.5 hours and I generally sleep for 9-9.5.

[Toomai]

That's L-2. Nobody put him at L-1 for the self hammer until we decide that we've gotten in all the taking we want.

Okay then.

Pseudovote: orcinus_theoriginal

No way does he share alignment with likeabauss.

Oh there was an action claim on him too. Interesting.

[Toomai]

Hai cabd I'm quite hungover and not feeling that bright at the moment but when did you get a PR?

See post 2050.

[Toomai]

So anyway.

VOTE: orc

That's L-2. Nobody put him at L-1 for the self hammer until we decide that we've gotten in all the taking we want.

VOTE: Orcinus

[predictable results]

Vote: Hermy

[Toomai]

Toomai, you know you're better than this

You're such a comedian.

Toomai, what's your graph looking like?

Graph?

I (apparently) have a meta of using numerics to track my thoughts on players throughout the game, which others have realized is useful for reading and questioning my thought process. I have been attempting to supplement this with a less-mathematical playstyle in this game, given that it's somewhat poor at capturing interactions (of which there are significantly more in larger games), so it'll be a bit more divergent from some of my actions than usual.

Spoiler: as requested

[Toomai]

Incidentally, I'm kinda leaning towards 2106 being maybe a coaching effort to tell a less-competent scumbuddy to prehammer.

[Toomai]

What were the drops in the TiP scumread about?

There was this ("you should claim [at L-8]"), this (that whole wagon was suspect, and I believe at the time I decided he had the least reason to go along with it, though admittedly I can't remember why right now), this ("hammer without claim"), and this (the mentioned inconsistency about previous).

What does each colour mean on the graph

Colours = players, see legend on right.

[Toomai]

The gist is that I alter my read based on the contents of posts made by or about each player. It doesn't have to be the same jump each time (a comprehensive case is probably worth more than a one-liner), though in practice it usually is.

The raw data is currently 3.9MB and contains all my other games in a somewhat interdependent way, so I don't think it's practical to just give out as-is.

[Toomai]

Can you explain your delta functions in your MVP and AFB reads then

MVP: +7% (↗)

• 55 +1% Asks correct question.
• 129 +1% The non-joke parts have a good vibe.
• 188 +2% Good stuff overall, makes several good points.
• 190 -1% Brought up all the "you get a townread" in the previous, which I didn't really notice.
• 454 +1% I just don't see scum making this post; they wouldn't be trying to stop RC from being a dolt, they'd probably let it run for lulz.
• 864 +1% The callout.
• 1813 +1% Good defense.
• 2024 +1% All facts, no opinion.

Angry Frat BROs

(← Wake88)

: +1% (↘)

• 58 -1% Don't totally remember why, but I think the tone seemed off.
• 207 +1% Agreed with sentiment at the time.
• 352 +1% Catchup post, mostly matched my thoughts.
• 364 +1% Trufax.
• 381 +1% Agreed with, again.
• 387 +1% More astute observations.
• 407 +1% The third-last paragraph. At this point he was my strongest townread in the game.
• 523 -1% Brings up things I had not thought of.
• 609 +1% Another pointed observation.
• 795 -1% I knew something was up with the Guyett wagon and this sums it up.
• 1078 -1% Metattacking the replaced. Seems legit.
• 1319 -3% The big case. I see little if no fault in it.
• 1425 +2% The majority of responses and opinions in this post look town to me.
• 1792 -1% Not 100% convinced by the VCA, but very suspicious at least.

[Toomai]

regarding Hermy, the responses she provided so far seem honest. When she said she didn't read the entire thread before voting, she probably meant she didn't see 2016. This, and coupled with the thought that a scum could self-hammer which did not go through her mind were the reasons why. It boils down to whether or not you let her play the newb card. Based on her recent posts, I'm willing to let this one slide.

Would have to have not read 2111 either, where 2106 was quoted. Makes it a bit less likely. Not quite ready to give a pass yet but it is reasonableish to only see the votecount.

[Toomai]

here is no way Hermy is getting anywhere near LyLo.

I will make sure she does.

Big talk from you.

[Toomai]

Toomai

- Meta read. MOstly from simimlarity of his play here to the Harry Potter mini theme. I'd like him to elaborate on his tippy scumread, though, because I heavily disagree with it.

The simple explanation for the disconnect is that you have him as town based on meta alone, whereas I have no meta knowledge and no real time to acquire some, so I see all his short posts and relative lack of intelligent insights and decide he's scum.

• 82: Junk list.
• 97: Needless buddying.
• 244: Way to filler.
• 1135: "Claim [at L-8]"
• 1365: Helps get the RC crazywagon going
• 1458: "Hammer without a claim"
• 1508 and so on: "Oh hey he claimed something large, better backtrack"
• 2298: "Hey let's out our protective role with 12 players to go"
• His avatar's Yoshi colour has changed from green to red. Q.E.D.

[Toomai]

What's the case on Guyett? I currently have him as a total null.

[Toomai]

14. RadiantCowbells - Town - General play looks great.

What the peppermints?

Not liking the rest of that reads list. It's mostly "general stuff" with no specifics.

[Toomai]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=30103

In that thread, mara and I nail scum-tip on page one within his first five posts. Entire game is done three pages later.

As proof of knowing TIP's meta, I can accept that, but because I can't see a lick of difference between that and this, it doesn't much affect my own read on him.

Define 'general stuff'.

2. Cephrir - Leaning Scum -

Your play yesterday

was pretty good.

Your play today

is nowhere near as good.

11. Angry Frat BROs - Scum -

General play

, plus meta from one or two others, plus likeabauss's good case on him/them.

13. PeregrineV - Null/Leaning Town - Ever so slight townread for

recent stuff

, but please post a bit more.

14. RadiantCowbells - Town -

General play

looks great.

"Your play", "general play", "recent stuff". No specifics.

[Toomai]

Toomai, Hermy is not the optimal lynch today. It's easy to jump on her wagon using the anti-town L-1 vote on orc. This is the problem; both towns and scums can use this reason to push for her lynch and it is very difficult to differentiate one group from the other.

Wellllllllll okay you've got me there.

Unvote

[Toomai]

Vote: Angry Frat BROs

The two wagons right now are him and Guyett, and given the Day 1 stuff, I think he's more likely to be scum.

[Toomai]

I'll withold my opinions on this claim until RC puts forth all his actions, and I think we might want to cut down on the discussion a bit until he does so.

[Toomai]

No, you're literally insane. That's what I'm saying. Your results are mixed up. Hermy's the scum.

Because that's totally allowed in Normal games.

[Toomai]

I believe the sangres claim. Therefore, TIP is probably legit. Therefore, AFB is unlikely to be scum. Therefore:

Unvote

Debating whether to pick RC or Hermy now.

[Toomai]

I've made my decision.

Vote: RadiantCowbells

We have 4 days, let's get this done.

[Toomai]

What even.

Did sangres claim scum? I believe I saw that in this mess.

Vote: sangres

[Toomai]

Wait what? The site goes down and by the time it's back up the scum have quit?

Spoiler: Reaction

I respect you for walking away from what you believe to be an unwinnable situation, but I still don't like it.

[Toomai]

I'll be marking this down as a "no contest", not a win.

[Toomai]

I'm also disappointed that, not only did I not get the chance to activate the Innocent Child (first PR drawn as a player here), but I couldn't even get it set up by being suspicious enough to vote for because of all the other stuff flying around.