Newbie 1471: Italian Ice (Game Over!)


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Hayate Yagami
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Post Post #1183 (isolation #0) » Tue Feb 04, 2014 4:58 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

*Whistle*

48 pages. Okay, catch-up analysis coming before I head to bed tonight.
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Post Post #1187 (isolation #1) » Tue Feb 04, 2014 10:23 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Okay, time for my catch-up analysis gogo

Spoiler:
is... weird. Not so much scummy as it is... weird. What was the point of this pseudo-claim?
- This feels like an overreaction to me- vt is in the 3x3 box as well, after all. So it wasn't an auto maf/PR claim. It just feels like you were trying too hard here.

The ika v. emeraldemon conflict feels like town v. town; emeraldemon has town motivation in being curious about exactly why bjc swapped his vote (which I took as a move to promote discussion- hence post #28) and wanting to pressure that angle, while ika is putting out aggressive feelers and genuinely seems to be trying to analyze the mindset behind emerald's pressure.

- I can't imagine scumnacho feeling insulted because another player townreads them; that's exactly what scum wants to see happen.

feels dreadfully weak. Okay, so conversation was spurred by your switch-vote. What do you think of it. Do you see anything interesting? Just saying "interesting..." doesn't really cut it; don't dodge the ability to provide content.

I disagree with the vote but I can see it making sense from a town pov. Emeraldemon makes a genuine attempt to put pressure on bjc for the switch-vote, ika jumps on him aggressively, I can see a townie lashing back with a vote at this stage.

- This post feels like buddying up to the most aggressive player in the game thus far to me. Why vote emeraldemon for that vote? What about it is scummy? Voting without explanation in this case is a bit ew, since it feels like a serious vote and not a "Prompting discussion" vote.

has the wrong target in my opinion, but it's overall relatively logical and I can see the pro-town thought process at work here.

- And... why don't you want to join the nacho-wagon? Give rationale please.

- Hate this vote. A random non-explained vote now that a great deal of discussion has occurred with no comment on said discussion.

- On a whole, this feels pro-town. Scum wouldn't be pushing as hard for players to get active and provide content as town, because providing content and information about your slot is inherently pro-town. I'd like to see him do more with the content provided though.

is town as hell; I especially like the questions.

- You're weary of somebody because they voted your second-highest scumread? Why? I dislike the fact that you never seem to explain things like this.

- A solid defense overall; don't see anything particularly objectionable

- I like the way that Emeraldemon is willing to throw doubt on his own argument; it makes me feels like his reads are more flexible and makes the scumhunting feel more genuine.

- Hey, what happened to that list of reads, bjc? And explain the nacho vote?

- This post is completely pointless. Why did you post it?

- Why would you be fine with a lynch on... page 4?

- I like Nacho's explanation of his ika read and I feel that he handles himself decently under the pressure here.

- My townread on nacho only grows stronger from that case, it seems logical and feels genuine.

- I dislike this "What information did you get on me?" "Enough." response. I would want specifics. What about the response made nacho town?

- Yet another explanationless vote/sheeping the wagon that's gaining momentum/sheeping ika. I feel like you've been doing some massively buddying up to ika this game.

- We're over 100 posts in, and you only have two reads, and explain neither of them? If you had a scumread on abott, why didn't you vote them until momentum began to shift towards that direction? I would love an explanation from you on what made Abott scum and what made ika town at this point.

- Like the list, this gives me good vibes. It genuinely feels like ika is trying to figure everybody out.

- This is just here to note that I have yet to find a single abbott post that is really worthy of comment and that seriously concerns me.

- I'm not sure that Ray's case is scummy, but it's pretty weak. The L-1 vote was relatively clearly for reactions and ika notes this during his unvote. I agree that the claiming that nacho is coasting 4 pages in is pretty weak, but you seem to be ignoring the fact that ika DID unvote. Also, I don't see anywhere where ika claims that he's only looking at the people deemed scummiest by consensus. I'm also surprised that you would consider ika to be "lack of own idea posting"... he seems to be one of the more actively independent thinkers thus far. Compare his posts to, say, bjc's.

- I dislike abbott disagreeing with Ray's post, but refusing to elaborate on why. He says that he's twisting ika's words, but never adds any MEAT to the disagreement.

- I like the second part of TierShift's case on Abbott- that of posting a lot but not really posting content; since it more or less echoes my thoughts on him.

- I disagree with the case on ika, but the case still feels relatively sincere. I also like how he's going after a player many people have been calling pro-town, instead of pushing easy targets Nacho/abbott. Feels genuine.

- Dislike the pushing for a quicklynch, although I do like the openness that he's doing it for the sake of following a wagon. So this post is kind of a toss-up.

- I dislike this "Eh, I'll lynch basically whoever" attitude. It feels scummy to me (Recall that as last reported he had a single townread).

- I hate this analysis. It feels like a whole bunch of IIoA and really bbjc doesn't commit to all that much. Also what is with RayFrost being so high? Why he is so much higher than Nacho, somebody whom you did say positive things about in your analysis?

- Contribute please.

This Rayfrost-ika argument really feels like an attack over playstyle, which is null. Overall I do think ika defends himself well, though.

- I like emerald's case on bjc; the logic flow feels townie and I agree with the points made; it feels like legitimate scumhunting.

- I dislike this reads list just because thrown out there with no explanation or elaboration on the reads, it feels like it's supposed to substitute for content.

- Would be curious about your reads SINCE 109. Another wagon vote; not all that pleased.

- Hi. Post content.

- I don't particularly like this post; it feels like a swipe at somebody that you say is town and have been following the entirety of the game.

- This feels like pro-town paranoia to me; I don't see ika-scum getting aggressive at another player because they have a town read on them.

Overall, ika's whole attack on nacho gives me good vibes. I would say that nacho defends himself decently well, however. Feels like another town v. town fight.

- Oh, I just realized that you never explained your rayfrost read! Also why does the fact that rob only made 2-3 posts not want to vote him? Connection noted.

- I wish Rayfrost would elaborate on "Reasons". Is Rob scummy? If so, why?

- If you want to focus on those players, why aren't you pushing cases on them at all? And just kind of... sitting there? This whole "I want to see more posts from everybody" also seems to contradict your earlier talking about being cool with a quicklynch.

- Bandwagoning onto a lurker lynch. Doubleplusungood. Content please

- The reads list feels genuine to me, and I like the whole "Rob W is an easy lynch" comment. I would expect scum to jump at being able to express pressure on a lurker; it's a great way to look like they're scumhunting. The RayFrost case is pretty meh, but nothing is particularly scummy amount it.

- Wasn't ika a town read? Your ONLY townread, as a matter of fact? What changed?

- Where did Tiershift/emeraldemon come from? What about the two of them makes them scummy? (Also, stop directing our PRs, people! It's not helpful.)

- There's SOMETHING about this post I like, but not sure what. Chalk it up to gut. I also really like the bjc case in the following post, and agree with it mostly.

- Now suddenly emeraldemon is more scummy than ika! Am I the only one that feels like these reads are really inconsistent and erratic? (Also no comment on anybody else in the game?)

- Again, I like it because it echoes my thought-process, and that will always be a good sign.

- Content. Post it.

- I dislike the way that bcj attacks Rob, but is unwilling to commit to a vote on him. What makes emerald scummier?

- I like how bcj attempts to discredit RayFrost's case instead of actually responding to it

- This is the first really proactive post I feel like Abbott has made. On a whole the bcj case is decent, but it feels like he's slightly hedging his bets with that rob comment- he'll happily swing back to the lurker wagon if it becomes more convenient or the bcjwagon stops having traction.

- If you don't feel like the lynch would teach us anything post flip... why would you be willing to switch to it?

- pushes for a rob lynch despite not voting him, and the self-preservation in this post reeks.

Another gut read but I like .

- I do dislike the way Tier dodges Nacho's second question and the first is a stale "dumb newb" defense. Though I am getting newb vibes from that slot, to be fair.

- Honestly I don't see Tier going out of his way to protect a buddy who obviously isn't going to contribute to his team like this, when it's a good opportunity to distance. This feels like a legitimate townie attempting to defend somebody who he thinks is a dumb newb.

Although I don't agree with it does show a good deal of independent thought and feels like genuine scumhunting. That said, this emerald read seems to materialize out of nowhere.

- This feels like "I can't come up with independent reasoning, so I'll just sheep somebody else's!" Which is especially funny because the arguments are about
another player
and
really don't work when it comes to emerald's slot!


- "Hey, don't lynch me! Here are some easier lynches for you to choose from!"

- This feels more like a town analysis post than bcj's earlier did. Here emerald is posting legitimate thoughts and providing content; I don't feel like the case against ika is all that compelling, though. I do agree with his thoughts on abbott though.

Again, I think that ika defends himself from the argument decently well; I'm not sure that I could have done all that much better- the logic he uses to defend himself is sound.

- I like this post a lot less. It feels like it's dependent upon misreads of Abbott's posts, and on a whole is a pretty weak argument, especially when you seemed decently convinced of nachoscum.

- This feels like an awful way to avoid actually having to address ika's points though.

- A couple things in this post do give me slight pings on the TownDar, but on the whole it's pretty meh.

- Why is Abbott scum? And if you think Abbott is scummier than Rob, why were you just like "Hey, if you want to lynch somebody, lynch rob!!!" in #369?

- I'm getting rather defensive vibes from this post.

seems genuine as fuck to me.

- Finally, some real content! (After having to be pressured to do it, which is slightly alarming); but it's all a case on one player which I really find weak and based on misinterpretations/misrepresentations of his posts to begin with.

and are annoyingly fluffy.

- I like the questions but the vote comes across as really opportunistic. What happened to that big post on bjc?

- I love the way emerald's thought process evolves throughout this post, and the analysis here is solid and feel genuine.

- Why must this slot have some kind of fatal allergy to posting content? :(

- I don't feel like ika's activity actually means much of anything, but I can't imagine scum going to all that effort and forcing everybody to give reads for an activity that isn't going to be particularly beneficial for them at all

- This feels like a townie response to a possible lurker lynch.

- It feels like ika abandoned that Tier wagon really quickly.

I wish Nacho would be a bit more active, although I'm not sure if that isn't a "busy-with-other-games-and-RL" thing rather than a "nacho-lurking-because-scum" thing.

- I like the attempts at discrediting without making a rebuttal to Tier's points (which are solid ones.)

- My gut is giving me slight townvibes from this post, but nothing too strong.

- Content. Post it. Gogogogo

- I love post 542. The response to ika's activity is logical and legitimate, but instead of simply dismissing it, Ray makes an effort to use it to generate content, particularly from slots currently under a good deal of pressure.

The frustration in feels entirely legitimate. That said, I'm not sure I like what almost feels like an attempt to dodge the activity, given how much content it could potentially generate.

I'm not sure about how to feel about the emerald-tier interaction; it feels a bit... fake somehow. That's my gut again though. I dislike even bringing up the POSSIBILITY of town PRs as emerald does in 558, though. It doesn't seem like a sound precedent. I kind of dislike the way emeraldemon seems to frame what Rob is doing in terms of it being anti-town and not scummy, yet still somewhat wants to lynch him. The fact that he notes he pursued a lurker in the previous game and was scum in that one does earn him some townpoints though.

- I hate the way Tier just sheeps other players reasoning here, especially when Tier seemed capable of making independent cases earlier on in the game. I'm torn on the rest of the post; the way that he's willing to change his mind makes me feel like he's making a sincere effort to determine who is scummy and who isn't, but a good chunk of the post still felt like fencesitting.

- Got any reason for those reads?

- I half-like the way that Sakura seems to be wondering why other people aren't pressuring her, in a way inviting that pressure, but on the other hand dislike how she doesn't provide the reasons on her own.

- I really, really dislike somebody suddenly shifting to sheep-mode right before a lynch, but the rationale I can at least understand in theory, so it's pretty null.

- Why does this attack on bcj make ika more likely to be scum, Sakura?

I agree with for the record... I see nothing particularly unfakeable in that post; though I may just be confo-biasing at this point.

- I really wish Sakura would be more specific on the content that strengthened/weakened her reads, and the fact that rereading only changed two, and one is changed by events in the present-day and not even further analysis during the reread feels sketchy; it makes me feel like her reads are rather static.

- Why would you press a PR to claim at L-2? That seems suboptimal. A PR should claim only if they absolutely HAVE to. AKA: At l-1.

- EM says that he's been trying hard to 1-1 TierShift to sort him... but I haven't seen all that much of this 1-1ing. :(

- I love the way that Tier soft-defends the player attacking him. The defense as a whole feels quite townie to me.

I kind of wish Nacho would post more content. :(

"I'm voting you because I think you're scum and I know I'll look scummy if you flip town, but I don't care, because I think you're scum." This reads town as hell to me.

- Replacement tells are, 99% of the time, worthless. Maybe they replaced because they were scum and didn't want to be attacked. Maybe they replaced because the game ended up boring them. Maybe they replaced because of internet problems. Etc. I dislike your sudden shift back to the rob wagon for really shaky reasoning.

Eh, I don't necessarily agree with Nacho and Sakura's case (and for obvious reasons I can't completely), but now that they have formalized it and backed it up with meta, it's stronger to me.

I'm not sure I completely like the way that Tier admits that they can't find backup for their point, but seem to cling to it by attacking Sakura and Nacho's rebuttals. That said, the way that Tier finally folds after Nacho fully elaborates on his reasoning (which is thorough, logical, and feels like it's coming from a town mindset) feels ever so slightly town, but its probably more null than anything. Changing his mind at this point is the logical option regardless of alignment.

The amount of IIOA in blows my mind.

I do like Sakura saying that her priority would be TS in ; a player that can actually defend themselves; rather than Rob who in the best-case scenario is going to be replaced by an unknown player who can't explain rob's actions.

- Dat blatant fear-mongering. Also I like how he calls the two slots scummy before even having read them. Also why would you do an RVS vote this late in the game, even if you're replacing in?

- On the one hand I'd be surprised at scum not bothering to fakeclaim a PR, on the otherhand that sort of defiant attitude feels more like caught scum rather than a wagoned townie. Hm. Toss-up.

I like emerald overall but this vote is just awful.

- What's with the "if" here. You know you're going to flip town. Why speak in conditionals when referring to your own flip?

- Ew. A reads list with three reads, Ray being completely unexplained, another being a bland nothing, and a third for unexplained reasons. And everybody else is null and nobody is scummy. Okay.

- When you're badly underfire like this... are you really going to attack one of the people that suddenly has no real desire to lynch you?

- This feels like stalling. If you have reads then share them with the rest of us.

- Ew, self-meta. That said is really pinging my gut. Sooo

Given how pisskop saw through the gambit, I don't buy much stock into any reactions therein. So it's all pretty null.

- And then this post is pinging my gut in the wrong way. This sudden defeatism just doesn't seem to jive with the rest of pisskop's play, and really gives me more a "caught scum" feel than a "frustrated townie" feel.

I like a lot, the removal has no real benefit for scum (it's removing any possibility of a townie hammer that would cut off discussion) and the rationale feels really genuine.

feels pretty omgusy. :\

I kind of like; it feels like it would have been more intuitive to shift back to defending Tier's scumbuddy now that it's a player who is actually contributing, instead getting aggressive at them. And it feels a bit late for distancing after all that hard defending in the early game.

- You want to hear two player's thoughts... yet you only give 6 hours? That feels like a relatively short timeframe.

- I dislike this sniping. Why is being forceful scummy?

- Not a huge fan of this snipe either.

- Honestly the frustration at their sniping feels genuine. The scumlist is really meh though. Especially with no rationale behind it.

- ew, more sniping.

- What is your case on nacho?

- I more or less completely agree with this reads list, and I can't help but give townie points to people who think as I do. And I can't see scum asking if their death will clear anybody, given what they know they'll flip, and that thus the question is completely pointless.

- The annoying thing is that I would expect a PR fakeclaim at this stage from scum. I don't see the pro-scum benefit in claiming VT unless you're giving up, and it doesn't feel like pisskop is giving up to me.

- Out of curiosity, do you feel like you've put a lot of effort into sorting Tier thus far? If so, how much more sorting do you think you'll need to do before you can give a valid conclusion.

- This feels like you're rushing the lynch, while simultaneously saying you get why we shouldn't.

- Out of curiosity, why the revote?

- People are still discussing things, the game isn't stalling, why are you so trigger-happy?

- I don't see RayFrost making this post, particularly if pisskop is town, which I suspect. This would be a perfect chance to bus a buddy, yet he instead pushes the minority position that is going to make him look bad when pisskop flips scum?

- Nacho, stop lurking please. I know you've been active in other games, so stepping up here would be good.

- Do I have to explain why this post is scummy?

- And why this post is town?

- It kind of feels like Sakura is using meta as an excuse here more than as an explanation. And did you ever explain what you thought nacho found scummy about Rob?

- I REALLY WISH we wouldn't talk about PR softclaims. Why do you feel that doing so is pro-town?

feels like pro-town paranoia to me.

- I don't agree with pisskop's post at all, but it feels like a legitimate townpost to me.

TL;DR Reads List:

TOWN:
ffery
emerald
RayFrost

LEANING TOWN:
Nacho
Pisskop
Tier

NULL:
Sakura

SCUM:
bcj

Basically, I'd really only want to hammer pisskop out of necessity at deadline; I genuinely don't buy that he's scum. I would much prefer a bcj flashwagon, though I wouldn't mind some pressure on Sakura either.

I have a hunch that even if bcj/Sakura is scum (and I would be surprised if neither are) the other one is hiding in one of my town lists somewhere... Nacho would be the first place I would look, then Tier.


If any of these reads confuse you/don't believe are adequately explained by my analysis, then feel free to ask! I'll do my best to oblige you.

Also, thanks Sakura. Only picture of the character I could find that fit the avvy requirements. ^_^;
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Post Post #1197 (isolation #2) » Wed Feb 05, 2014 11:49 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1188, emeraldemon wrote:@Hayate Yagami
Your account is brand new, but you sound like someone with a lot of experience, maybe on this site specifically (referring to nacho's activity elsewhere for example). Is this an alt account or something? If you want to remain mysterious I can dig it, but I like to know where players are coming from.
Nah, if I were an alt, no chance I'd join a newbie game without saying so. That sounds crazy immoral. I've been a lurker here a long time tho and read a lot of games; so I'm pretty familiar with lingo and am reading ongoings so I know about player activity. So I'm mostly doing this as its a chance to refine my scumhunting and get opinions about my play from people far better than I.
In post 1188, emeraldemon wrote:Also your catchup post is really long, would you mind summarizing your bjc read please?
Fair enough! Let's see here. I haven't really liked bjc from the beginning, since although he has been making moves to generate content, he never actually does anything
with
that content. This is blatant in #35: he actually comments on what resulted from this vote, but merely says "interesting" instead of actually putting up anything of value. And if you proceed to look at his votes... they're pretty bad. He reaction votes you for no apparent reason except that you were attacking ika (which makes his aggressive stance on Rob W for voting for no reason kind of hypocritical, really), and then wagon votes nacho a good 50 posts later. Also without giving any reasons. Does the exact same thing with abbott and then my slot. His vote on ika later on is just awful, this is after calling ika town in his reply to RayFrost in #208, saying that RayFrost's scumread of ika is off on #197, and calling ika a solid townread back on #145, with nothing really seeming to cause a shift in opinion. Yet he suddenly warrants pressure? He then says that he has a hard time believing ika is scum and yet ika is worthy of an investigation 3 posts later.

And then, after all that pressure on TS and ED, he shifts to easy mislynch pisskop without giving any particular rationale. Like looking at his iso you see a post here or thing with sniping or a quick 1-liner but nothing resembling a solid case. The only thing that really saves him here is that he was willing to swing back to you once that wagon appeared to be gaining momentum.

Now, let's talk about other stuff. His reads are just bad. As noted his ika read is erratic as heck, and he suddenly turns on pisskop with pretty much no coherent rationale. Some of his reads in his analysis post are completely unexplained (see RayFrost being one of the towniest when he didn't even comment on him). He found Abbott scummy at the start of the game but did absolutely nothing to pressure that slot up until Sakura came in, and he has made a special effort to not comment on Sakura at all. (Like I just searched "Sakura" in his ISO, he has said literally nothing about her except asking why she's scummy and saying that he sees no TS-Sakura connections, which is basically the equivalent of nothing).

And then there's his blatant survivalism surrounding the Rob wagon, and some posts that just give me bad vibes in general- that joke about scum hammering and that overreaction at the beginning of the game, for instance.
In post 1190, fferyllt wrote:Hayate, I take it your read of me is entirely based on ika?
Most of my read is based off ika, yeah. I find you trickier to read; looking back at your ISO you have been providing reads, but no incredibly strong content and unlike ika you aren't really making any massive waves, finding it easier to sit in the back a bit more and poke and prod players with questions. Overall a lot of your questions have been decently proactive though and your interaction with ED in particular did feel like genuine scumhunting, so you haven't done all that much to cause me existing read on the slot to change.

bjc, why is pisskop scum? And what are your feelings on Sakura at the moment?
ffery, convince me on bjc-town. I'm not feeling it at all at the moment and would much prefer a wagon on bjc to a wagon on emerald or pisskop. (Or Tier, for that matter, but I don't think that's happening today)
Sakura, why do you think I have your slot as null right now? I'm curious as to your thoughts on my read on you. Also, what makes bjc town?
RayFrost (Do you have any preferred shorthand? Ray feels a bit casual; would you prefer Frost?), let's put our Imagination Caps on and imagine Hypothetical World Y where bjc is scum. Exactly how do you feel the wagons on him would be different in such an instance?

(Annoyingly, it looks like my links don't work, sorry about that. Not sure what I did wrong there. You'll either have to dig through people's isos to see exactly which posts I'm getting at, reread the game, or, well, ask me. ^_^;)
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #3) » Wed Feb 05, 2014 12:27 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1199, Sakura Hana wrote: I don't see why you'd want my thoughts of your read on me, only thing i'd be thinking would be "Why after so many posts someone still can't sort me?", tho if you're paranoid because you can't tell then i'd understand that.
That's kind of it. It's a bit like abbott where, as I noted around 300 posts in (I believe) I still didn't have a single post of his that I felt was worthy of comment. You're kind of the same way. You decently back up your argument regarding replacements and their likelihood of being scum (I don't think it's a great one but you defend it decently) and overall your hammer gambit felt roughly pro-town, but that's not exactly an impossible gambit to fake as scum. And although you've been posting more content than abbott I can never quite pin you down, which really concerns me.
In post 1199, Sakura Hana wrote: I liked his reactions when he was under pressure, and his reactions to the fake hammer, and i've also liked his latest posts.
What about his latest posts have you liked? His eagerness for a hammer, for instance, has done anything but give me good vibes. What was good about his fake-hammer reactions? How did you feel about his earlier posts while he was under pressure, which definitely were survivalist?

Also, I know you think nacho's town, and you've played a decent amount of games with him, and you've said you have him as town for meta reasons. What about his play thus far meshes with his pro-town meta in your opinion?
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Post Post #1204 (isolation #4) » Wed Feb 05, 2014 2:00 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1201, Sakura Hana wrote: his eagerness for hammer just shows that he's tired of how this day keeps going on and on and on, it shows he's being affected by apathy, which is scum's weapon (scum would just keep silent overall and let town fall into apathy instead).
I'd agree with this a bit more if it felt like the day was lagging and no content was being generated. But discussions are happening, people are posting content, and he still seems to be pushing for a hammer? It feels less like apathy and more like an attempt to shut down discussion to me, honestly.

How do you feel about the case I made earlier, which is more focused on his votes and reads? What flaws do you see in it?
In post 1201, Sakura Hana wrote:Newbtown tends to act more survivalist, i'd expect newbscum to self-hammer to end discussion OR fake claim a PR to draw the actual PR.
How do you think that meshes with #608, where his attitude is suddenly the opposite: "Oh, lynch me, whatever?" In retrospect this feels kind of weird; ika pressures him to not act survivalistically, and thus instead he switches to the opposite?

Also, yeah. LMB was really kind of passive in his scumhunting, and that's not an attitude I'm going to take; I feel like getting out active feelers is a much better strategy on both ends.
In post 1189, emeraldemon wrote: I've put a lot of thought into it anyway, and the answer I get out is "probably scum". It's hard for me to argue with him for townreading me since in my mind all my posts are town, but that doesn't stop me from being suspicious about it, and specifically about him not responding to my scumreading of him, or him not being paranoid of me as scum when I just tricked him as scum last game. And in general his reads have felt suspiciously constant, pushing the same cases basically the whole day. Of course town can do this also, but I think maybe town is less worried about being self-consistent. And being fluid and open to new information is something that's hard for scum to fake I think, so they may compensate by tunneling more.
This is definitely the best case on Tier I've seen thus far this game, I think. I still feel like I can see pro-town thought processes in Tier's posts and Tier's thoughts echo mine at some junctures which I always perceive as a slight town read, but your logic is still decent.

Which then begs the question... given this, why are you still voting pisskop? What would it take for you to change your vote?

Tier- Come out and play, if you would. You think bcj is scum. Why? Who do you think is a likely scumbuddy? How do you feel about this counter-wagon being made on you? Do you think it's scumdriven?
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Post Post #1211 (isolation #5) » Wed Feb 05, 2014 2:33 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1206, Sakura Hana wrote: Hmm... actually now that you mention it, it feels quite odd, when I came in bjc was already getting pressured anyhow and i just thought that if he was scum he would have self-hammered or claimed PR, what do you think about him wanting to get hammered instead of just ending the discussion himself right there?
But then why doesn't the same apply to pisskop, who got up to L-1 and claimed VT? If Pisskop was scum, wouldn't they just self-hammer/claim PR? Your logic to clear bcj logically should also be used to clear your top scum suspect, which feels weird.

Also, I could see it a couple ways; he could be scum resigned to his fate but not wanting to self-hammer for whatever reason (because he feels like it's playing against his wincon, etc.) and hope that this resigned bluff would be enough to, at the very least, stall the wagon. But then, I'm not a mind-reader. Heck, he could have been caught-scum that just didn't think to self-hammer. Who knows.

I think that ffery raises a good point, and I dislike that instead of actually explaining her actions and why she hasn't put effort into sorting her thus far, Sakura just leaps to do what ffery says that town-her should be doing.

Why weren't you putting more effort into sorting ffery? Looking, you hadn't asked her a single question all game or really attempted to start a back and forth with her; wouldn't that be beneficial in trying to figure her out?
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #6) » Wed Feb 05, 2014 9:40 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

I can dig this. Much prefer it to a Tier or pisskop wagon.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sakura
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #7) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:10 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:In the hypothetical situation where bjc is scum for sure without a doubt with interactions akin to this game, there would have been, I'd imagine, a tipping point at which either bjc's buddy was attempting to consistently raise counterwagons (not just one, as consistently trying to push a single one could come across as scummy via the t.v. issue whereas finding things scummy for multiple people is more liable to be seen as active scumhunting and mere disagreement with the bjc wagon) or given up the ghost and gone for the bus. These wouldn't necessarily happen at the same time, but the simple fact that I haven't seen much evidence of people trying to subtly snipe the wagon's momentum or distract from the wagon itself or even a bus makes me inclined to feel that it's simply an issue of too many low hanging fruit for bjc to be lynched.
Hm, this is actually a valid point. The bjc wagon just kind of... stagnates at L-1 and nothing really happens for a while until ika eventually unvotes, and the pressure slowly shifts to rob and Tier. I see two options here:

1. Scum were already part of the rob wagon and thus letting go of that and trying to pursue a different counterwagon to bjc would just look odd and scummy (especially since rob was the only target that even got close to a counterwagon when bjc was floating around at L-1), so the scummate sticks to the easy target and hopes that that will go through and the heat on bjc will die down.
or
2. The scum felt that bjc was going to go down, and decided to try and bus for cred by joining the wagon.

I will admit that I'm no vote count expert though, so I could be off here. But I feel like you're noting the optimal scum play, not seeing the optimal scum play, and then stating that it couldn't possibly have gone in any other fashion because that would be suboptimal for the scum. If I were to guess, I would say that the scum were one of the voters committed to Rob (Nacho being the main candidate) and trying to push that as an alternate wagon, or after they saw the bjc wagon start to gain momentum, they hop onto it to try and pick up the towncred. (Abbott being the main candidate here).

I'll admit that I'm no vote count analysis expert though, so I will concede that you have a point. Out of curiosity, did you look at the case I put up regarding bjc? What did you think of it?

And honestly, Abbott's post kind of feels like a weak distancing/bussing attempt to me, but I'll get there.
In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:I'm not really following the sakura case. All I can get out of these interactions in terms of things you guys find scummy is "sakura wasn't pressuring ffery" - hardly particularly convincing. Which leads me to think you have more. Please explain.
Well, let's go back and begin with Abbott. He was most certainly coasting; look at his iso. There's a good chunk of fluff there, as well as some softball questions that make it look like Abbott is generating content, but then he never really does anything with it. A colossal chunk of his posts are just him sparring verbally with Nacho, and others are just weak couple-line statements that to me feel more like active-lurking than anything. Give me solid content from that slot where he isn't passively observing the game, taking shots at Nacho whenever the opportunity presents itself.

And then there's his vote on bcj:
In post 355, AbboTT wrote:Alright. Rob clearly isn't going to be pressured, so that vote is useless until we make a decision about lynching him.

I'm comfortable putting bjc at L-1. His self-proclaimed "go with the flow" attitude towards D1 doesn't mesh well with my ideal townie profile. I do like that he isn't actively over-defending himself, but I'm starting to read that as scum playing it cool.

All in all, I think he's a solid choice. We will learn a thing as a vote count analysis and some ISOing should yield good info on D2 regardless of his flip.

My mind could be changed for a Rob lynch if anybody is down for that.

bcj
This vote just feels off to me. He's attacking bcj for "going with the flow" during D1, but I don't really see abbott making huge waves either; he seems content to toss out some weak feelers and post reads every few pages without explaining them. And that last part is just bad; it feels like Abbott is saying "Oh, the rob lynch isn't gaining any momentum here, so I'll just cast this vote now, but by adding this caveat I will be perfectly capable of backing out of it whenever I feel like!" It kind of feels like Abbott is reluctantly bussing here because he thinks the wagon is going to go through, but will happily swing back to the easy lurker lynch if given the chance.

Then Sakura comes in. On a whole her posts aren't awful, but they are incredibly light too; a question here, a bit of pressure there, nothing incredibly substantive. And then she celebrates ffury coming in because she's able to read her, yet not only doesn't try to pressure her at any point or get a dialogue going, but only starts to do it when ffury calls out how strange it is. Then, after asking one pretty weak question, she doesn't go back to it and attack another angle or find something in ffury's response that's worth replying to. It just doesn't feel like genuine sorting. And then you have her weird hypocritical stance on bjc.

That's all that I've got right now; but then it's 3 AM so my mind might be getting a bit foggy at this point.
In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:Hayagatemi (fun fact, this is actually easy to say in Japanese): you say you prefer sakura over tier / pisskop, but what about emmy the big green dog?
Emmy is a stronger townread than either of those two, honestly. So I don't really want that lynch either. :\
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #8) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:08 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Okay, somebody is going to have to actually substantiate the case against Tier or link me to something, because I'm just not seeing it. The closest I've gotten is emerald's case, a player that isn't even voting Tier. (You never answered my question by the way; why were you voting pisskop and not Tier given your case on the latter?)

And while emerald's case is decent, it isn't enough to cancel out the minor townread I have on Tier. I'd much prefer a bcj lynch, but I get that's not happening, and will make do for a Sakura lynch. A pisskop lynch is the worst of the options and the only reason I'd ever vote for him is deadline.

I also think it would be GREAT if bcj would actually answer the questions I asked him a few pages ago.

But for the record if we get up to deadline and ffery hasn't hammered, I'd be happy to. A somewhat controversial townread being lynched is better than no lynch at all. So Tier should probably claim soon; if ffery isn't content with Tier doing it right now, it should still get done ASAP so that if we need to switch targets we aren't stuck.
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Post Post #1289 (isolation #9) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:16 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1288, bjc wrote:What questions Hayate? I'm sure most of them were already addressed.
In post 1197, Hayate Yagami wrote: bjc, why is pisskop scum? And what are your feelings on Sakura at the moment?
And I know that you've given some reasons why Tier was scum in your ISO, but if you could make that argument too that would be great. I'm waiting for a compelling case on that slot that I'm just not seeing.
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Post Post #1293 (isolation #10) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:33 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1291, bjc wrote: Literally everything pisskop ever posts comes across as scum to me.
That's not an answer. What, specifically, about his posts is scummy?

Also, you didn't answer my question about Sakura.
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #11) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:40 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Also, Tier, I would definitely like an updated reads list of who you currently think is town/scum (preferably with some explanation) before you get hammered, as that is probably going to be the play for today.
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Post Post #1297 (isolation #12) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:44 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1295, bjc wrote:Sakura is town to me, but that is always subject to change. Sorry, forgot about the part about her.
What about Sakura makes her town?
In post 1295, bjc wrote:His flailing, his attempt to get anyone but him to die, his flopping (one moment saying he's willing to die to clear TS, the next moment saying to kill TS)...
But weren't you doing the same thing earlier when you were begging people to lynch rob instead of you? What makes Tier different? And weren't you being erratic regarding reads yourself, particularly when it comes to ika? Why is it not-scummy for you to do those things, and scummy for pisskop to?

I'd be happy to formalize my case for pisskop being town, but a lot of it is more gut feelings I get from his posts than anything substantive.
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Post Post #1299 (isolation #13) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:49 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

EBWODP: Sorry, what makes PISSKOP different. Dangit cerebral cortex, communicate with my fingers properly!
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Post Post #1303 (isolation #14) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 4:45 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1302, RayFrost wrote: All of you on hana's ass that don't see the towniness in kisspop should at least see a little bit of the genuine originality and effort that I've been seeing off of the fact that he brings something up about someone you guys are just now starting to bring things up about.
I'm confused as to who this is addressed to? Like, the three people who joined the hanawagon, as I recall, were ffery, me, and pisskop. And both ffery and I consider pisskop to be probtown, I believe. So ???
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Post Post #1307 (isolation #15) » Thu Feb 06, 2014 6:43 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1281, emeraldemon wrote:
In post 1278, pisskop wrote:hana's L-2 . . .
Don't do this. Why would you do this? Please don't make me regret not lynching you.
What were you expecting to gain from claiming Hana was at L-1, when the vote count was right at the top of the page for everybody to see? This kind of gambit really only works when we haven't had a vote count in a while, and it's harder to check exactly who is at what.
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Post Post #1310 (isolation #16) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:26 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1309, emeraldemon wrote: I believe the things people are saying about pisskop, I can see him as probably town.
What in particular convinced you?
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Post Post #1311 (isolation #17) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:29 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Sakura's at L-2. Can still make a Sakura lynch happen, people!
(Okay, probably not. But a guy can dream, can't he?)

Anyway, will be here for deadline so if ffery doesn't drop by, I'll hammer.

And was going to ask Tier for an explanation for those reads, but I guess it's not happening. :(
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #18) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 6:44 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 613, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 612, bjc wrote:ED is a great starting point, IMO.
I agree with this
Vote: ED
Go counterwagon!
In post 716, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 715, TierShift wrote:Rob still scum? Ed?
Ed has gone town for me,
Rob at least this time seems like he's going to be replaced... which makes me incredibly skeptical because 3/4 times i replace into a newbie slot it's a scum slot. I think i rather push for ika at this point.
What in particular caused you to change your opinion on ED in those 100 posts, Sakura?
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #19) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:41 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Eh, I can't really make a particularly solid Tier-town case; to be the defending of Rob felt very genuine, as did his eventual push-back from Rob after Nacho and Sakura presented their case and Nacho clarified what his case on Rob was exactly. And posts like 670 feel to me like genuine scumhunting. Not to mention that our thought processes are very similar, and that always gets players town points from me.
In post 1317, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 1311, Hayate Yagami wrote:Sakura's at L-2. Can still make a Sakura lynch happen, people!
In post 1301, GuyInFreezer wrote:Deadline counter: 0 days, 3 hours, 29 minutes
=/
I still want TS or kop lynched. I may be able to be around during the whole deadline but if i have to leave in a hurry i'll claim.
Note the next line. :wink: (And hey, no offense. It's just you're a null slight scum read, so I'd rather you die than a weak town read like Tier.) A couple things have made me slightly more hesitant, but not enough to not want a Sakura lynch over a Tier lynch, honestly.

Also, see my above question.
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Post Post #1321 (isolation #20) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 7:55 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

I'll be here at deadline so I can hammer if ffery doesn't, but I'm not too worried about that.

And I'd love if Nacho is able to come on and give some input, though I don't consider it all that likely.
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Post Post #1323 (isolation #21) » Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:02 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Well, since I have to leave, ffery might not be around at deadline, and I doubt Ray/Nacho would have posted gamebreaking content in the next hour...

UNVOTE: Sakura
VOTE: TierShift

Hammah
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Post Post #1346 (isolation #22) » Sun Feb 09, 2014 10:44 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1340, bjc wrote:
In post 1337, fferyllt wrote:
In post 1334, bjc wrote:I was going to vote ED. ED turned out to be the cop, so I'm a little shocked there.

My next group consists of ffery and hayate but I need to look over Sakura's posts.
Why is hayate in your next group?
Do you think hayate
shouldn't
be in that group?
That isn't an answer to the question, though. Why am I scum, when you didn't mention me being scum a single time since I replaced in, and the last time you read lmb, pisskop and Sakura's slots were both scummier to you? And why ffery, when ika was above me in your previous read of her slot and you didn't say a single thing about ffery being scum since she replaced in?

Also, what happened to your suspicion of pisskop?

Nacho, talk to me about pisskop scum. I quite believe him to be town, so I'm going to need some convincing here.

Tier's flip does give Nacho some townpoints in my book for switching to Tier, when he was abandoning both the pisskop wagon and ignoring the Sakura wagon when it was gaining momentum.

The flip is making me think that I could use a hard reset on this game; I think I'll be back later with a vote-count analysis and some analysis of Tier interactions with everybody.
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #23) » Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:02 am

Post by Hayate Yagami »

In post 1347, bjc wrote:
In post 1342, bjc wrote:It should be noted that pisskop is always scummy in my eyes, so I'm willing to wagon him too if the town sheeps Nacho's vote.
In your opinion has he done anything pro-town this game that would warrant you being more hesitant to vote him, or is it just entirely because you can't read him? And if you can't read him, then why would you still be happy to hop onto his bandwagon? To me, that would be more reason to be wary of such bandwagons, since if I think a player is always scummy, logically I'm going to think they're an easy lynch as well, which could easily be exploited by scum.

Also, why didn't you answer my other question(s)?
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Post Post #1362 (isolation #24) » Sun Feb 09, 2014 1:14 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

For the record, Scum-Hayate's Devious Gambit this game would apparently be: Call the scum that was bandwagoned to L-1 near deadline town, explain why I thought him to be town, continue to push an emergency counterwagon to save my buddy, yet instead of just staying off MS near deadline and make it dependent on somebody else to push a lynch through, hammer him myself, when it pretty clearly would grant me no towncred given how I had previously made it clear that I thought Tier was town. I'm... not sure exactly where the scum benefit is in me doing all this?

I also don't think that pisskop's meta on killing people he thinks is town means all that much, given how emerald flipped to him being town in their last couple posts.

Went out to dinner and have schoolwork I need to do, but I promise that that analysis is coming.

Also, bjc, why are you continuing to ignore my questions? I have less of a scumread on you given Tier's flip, but you really aren't helping me get a firmer read on you.
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Post Post #1365 (isolation #25) » Sun Feb 09, 2014 3:09 pm

Post by Hayate Yagami »

Okay, let's do this then.

Interactions with TierShift:

Spoiler: Abott/Sakura
Abbott ignored Tier for the entirety of the early game, only making one response post to him, and never actually attempting to push on him or make much effort to get a read on him. Yet, when he posts his reads later on:
In post 169, AbboTT wrote:Updated read list:

ED - townish
BJC - townish
RF - patronizing townie

TS - mildly scummy

Nacho - scum

ika - ? (ISO needed)
RW - ? (post or die)
LMB - ? (post or die)
With absolutely no explanation as to why.

Afterwards, Abbott puts literally no pressure on Tier whatsoever. Not a vote, not a FOS, no interrogating. He makes no effort to actually get a firmer read on Tier, or actually make a case for Tier being scum.

And suddenly... 300 posts later...
In post 439, AbboTT wrote:
scum

BCJ
ED
ika

--
RobW
Nacho
--

town

TS
LMB
RF
Tier is suddenly pro-town. Why? Who knows. No explanation.

That's all we get from Abbott in terms of Tier.

When Sakura comes in, she also has an early Tier townread.
In post 584, Sakura Hana wrote: Reads as of now:
Town: Nacho, the snowman avatar guy, TS.
Scum: bjc, Rob, ED (which means im wrong about at least 1 of these)
With no explanation, but to be fair she was still reading the game thus far, so maybe I shouldn't expect detailed reads from her as of yet.

After bjc attacks Tier and ika pushes for a Tier lynch on the previous page, however, Sakura's opinion on Tier appears to begin to shift.
In post 630, Sakura Hana wrote:Yeah, also TS going a bit down in the town ladder, but still nullish-town because of his last post.
After this, when ika and bjc continue to put pressure on Tier, Sakura shifts, appearing to agree that Tier's #620 is scummy, but saying that she was trying to sort Tier, despite not asking Tier any questions or interacting with him. After this, she states that bjc's posting seems more sincere than Tier's, but quickly adds that they aren't "the only two players in the game", and proceeds to push her Ika scumread instead. She then unvotes 12 posts later, and gets caught in a debate with Tier about whether or not newbies are more likely to replace out as scum.

Then, suddenly in #794, she's fine with a Tier lynch, but pushes for Rob instead, despite saying that Tier was a priority lynch in . Then Sakura continues to softly push Tier scum with rob/pisskop, but continually puts actual pressure on the latter and continues to vote him. She then unvotes, saying that she is reconsidering her read, but it just goes back on a few posts later, after pisskop suddenly gets a scumread on TS. Then not much happens in the way of Sakura-Tier interactions (she implies that he's scum if Rob/pisskop is scum a couple more times, but little else, until momentum has shifted towards a Tier lynch, and then Sakura finally votes Tier, like she was saying she wanted to do way back in #798.

So, basically, Abbott has almost nothing to say about Tier, aside from a sudden flip from leaning scum (with no explanation) to one of his stronger townreads (with no explanation). Sakura, meanwhile, says that Tier is scum as pressure from bjc and ika builds on him, but ties it completely to pisskop scum, making it a suspicion incredibly easy to back out of should pisskop flip town. Then, after saying that Tier would be a better vote than Rob, ends up putting all her pressure and votes on Rob, until it is clear that there is much more momentum to lynch Tier.

Sooo... yeah. Feels pretty scummy to me.


Spoiler: bjc
Okay, going through all 200+ of bjc's posts looking for bjc-tier interactions was slightly tedious, but more or less, bjc has a light townread on him at the beginning, but once Tier votes bjc, he continually says that Tier is suspicious (including in an incredibly awkward line where he votes ika but says that Tier and emerald are the two that should be investigated at night), and makes plenty of posts toward Tier that are aggressive in nature. Although he swings from ED to Pisskop to Tier a good deal, Tier does continually remain one of his top sources of pressure/voting. He even says in that he wants to call Tier town, but one key reason why he isn't is because Tier is pushing on him. (He also does list Tier "not being helpful" and "uncooperative/anti-town posting" as other reasons for his scumread, though). Then, after continually calling Tier "meh" (along the same level of scumminess as Abbott), he votes Tier, and continues to attack him.

Then, when it looks like he could get a pisskop lynch, he swings to that. Then, finally, when momentum starts to push towards a Tier lynch, he goes back to Tier.

Really, I don't see bjc being scum with Tier. The only way I can imagine it happening is Tier for some reason deciding to ram his one scum-partner under the bus as hard as possible, and thus bjc responding in kind. The sudden shift to pisskop and going back to Tier only when momentum is pushing towards that lynch is a bit odd, but given his lynch-happy nature at the end of the day, isn't all that surprising or particularly out-of-character. Overall, bjc looks pretty town from Tier interactions.


Spoiler: ika/ffery
Ika starts out with a town read on Tier for most of the early game, but then suddenly pushes against Tier in 239, accusing him of fence-sitting. He then starts to push at Tier for most of the game, saying that Tier's confidence in his rob read was solely based off him being scum and knowing Rob to be town (something I agree with, now that Tier has flipped), and even says "I'm not going to budge on them [Nacho and Tier]" unless damning evidence is presented against somebody else in . Overall there isn't much Tier interaction for a bit (he says that he'll post a case on Tier and Nacho, but it never actually happens) until his next read list, where he lists Tier as scum. Then, after his exercise (after attacking Tier once again), he says that they should lynch Tier as, from the data, he feels that that is where they'll get the most information. He then votes Tier for the rest of his time in the game, after attacking bjc and emerald for a bit, until he is replaced out.

Overall, ika's sudden turn on Tier just doesn't feel like bussing, given how little pressure there was on Tier at that point, and more like town legitimately scumhunting. In addition, I can't imagine scum saying things like this-
In post 524, ika wrote:
In post 522, bjc wrote:You're making it too easy for the scum, but okay.

Apparently anything I post is discredited/wrong/survivalist by the fact that I'm scum according to Tier.
if you flip town im gunnung at teir next most likely jsyk.
Because it feels like ika is more or less putting pressure on himself to attack Tier tomorrow, through setting Tier up as an independent scumread. Whereas when you tie your scumread to connects with another player, the way Sakura did, you can easily back out once that other player flips town. And overall, most of ika's posts pressuring Tier just feel genuine, and not scum posturing.

ffery comes out saying that she didn't really like Tier in her read through. She then places a vote on Tier, and it stays there until she turns her attention to Sakura, putting some mild pressure on Tier all the while. Even when she's voting Sakura, she doesn't appear to forget to apply pressure to Tier, and implies that she's still happy to vote him. Then she unvotes and attempts to do some reading on emerald pre-hammer. The only really odd thing is that ffery says that she might not be around for deadline, yet... still doesn't hammer Tier, in case she misses out. On a whole this could be attempting to delay the hammer on her buddy so that they could potentially get a no lynch and Tier could survive to the next day, but this feels like a stretch to me.

On a whole, ika's read on Tier feels sincere, and ffery's hunting on Tier feels at least somewhat genuine as well; the Sakura suspicion feeling more like a genuine read shift rather than a scum-driven counterwagon, particularly the way ffery doesn't use it as an excuse to stop trying to read Tier. The only thing that slightly bugs me is the lack of a hammer, but ffery could still have been invested in giving Nacho and Ray time to come back, and just hoping that she would be able to make it back by then. It's nothing huge.

So ffery looks decently pro-town due to Tier interactions as well.


Spoiler: Nacho
On a whole I agree with Nacho's , and feel like him not putting Tier in his reads list is, if anything a sign that he isn't Tier's buddy. Why waste the opportunity to distance/defend, and draw attention to a possible connection between the two of you?

The two then spend some time debating over the rob read; I'd say this is overall relatively null, though it looks a bit... uncoordinated, I suppose, for a scumteam. Why would Scum!Nacho need to put in so much effort to convince Scum!Tier to side with him on pisskop?

However, after this, Nacho puts Tier on his "Lean town" list without much explanation. After Tier continues to defend Rob, however, Nacho turns on him, saying that he's beginning to think that Tier is scum. Nacho begins attacking Tier and stating that he would prefer to lynch him over, say, emerald. After the debate over Rob has ended, he doesn't seem to have much to say about Tier, but then swings his vote to him over Sakura, after the Sakura counterwagon begins to build.

Like I was saying earlier, I see Nacho's vote on Tier as a pretty clear sign that they aren't buddies; Nacho could have either continued to stay on the pisskop wagon in an attempt to prevent the Tier wagon from gaining momentum, or shifted to Sakura. Instead he helps the wagon on his scumbuddy start to gain momentum, for no apparent reason and not too much benefit. And the Tier pressure and interactions prior to that really don't feel like Scum-Scum to me, particularly the argument over Rob.


Spoiler: Rob W/Pisskop
Rob W, of course, has absolutely nothing to say about Tier.

Pisskop's interactions with Tier are more interesting. Despite the constant defending Tier did to his slot (which if scum is Tier desperately not wanting his buddy to get lynched D1), Pisskop refuses to reciprocate, and initially states that Tier is null. On the other hand, a couple posts later, and Tier is one of the towniest players in the game, only below Sakura and Ray.

That said:
In post 950, pisskop wrote:tier is looking town and i must admit I see his reasoning. will my death help clear him?
This doesn't look like scum defending scum AT ALL. Like, I don't see any scum motivation for pisskop to post this. None. It wouldn't help Tier one iota for pisskop to flip; if anything, it would make Tier look much worse to pretty much everybody. Yet Pisskop is willing to just roll over and die, if it will help Tier. This feels really, really genuine to me.

On the other hand, pisskop then suddenly turns on Tier later on, saying that he and Sakura had "avoided direct confrontations", a point that I'm not certain I agree with. He then wagons Tier, supposedly for information. Yet, he then turns and says that he has no plans to lynch Tier. This would be some of the most awkward distancing ever if pisskop was scum, which really makes me think he isn't.

On a whole I would say that kop's interactions with Tier look pretty genuine, and if he's scum then it just feels so awkward and weird and their interactions don't really seem to make all that much sense. Tier's hard-defense of Rob feels like scum trying to get town-cred by defending lynchbait to me.


Spoiler: RayFrost
Overall, Ray doesn't talk about Tier all that much. But when he does, it mostly feels genuine. For instance, the frustration in when he's trying to sell the Nacho case to Tier feels real to me, and it really doesn't feel like scum trying to convince his buddy to hop on his wagon. This snapping at Tier feels real too:
In post 207, RayFrost wrote:
In post 205, TierShift wrote:Heh. It's actually pretty hard to genuinely defend a scumbuddy, whose scummy things you can see and need to avoid and then make it seem like you didn't.

So, who are you gonna defend starting now?
Since I'm not scum, I don't really need to do this now do I?

I'll stick with how I've been playing, thanks.
He then has Tier in basically the middle of the pack in his reads list, which is admittedly a decent place for scum to place their buddy; not high enough that you're obviously buddying, but not low enough to feel the need to bus. His next comment on Tier is all the way up to , when he votes for Tier to try and stop a pisskop lynch, since he thinks that that's a wagon that could gain traction. On a whole, I don't see Ray starting a wagon out of the blue on a scumbuddy in order to avoid lynching easy-lynch pisskop. Even if you want to keep him alive for a mislynch later in the game, your lone scumbuddy is just such a precious resource that I can't imagine Ray not trying to start a wagon elsewhere.


So yeah, really after analyzing everybody's interactions with Tier, Sakura's slot looks the worst to me quite easily. I already posted a case on Sakura yesterday, so I guess I'm right back to where I started.

VOTE: Sakura

I may look Tier-Sakura interactions and do a wagon analysis later; this has kind of worn me out a bit. So many posts...
bjc wrote: I don't feel like answering your questions really helps progress the game, but I don't remember what the questions were in the first place. I'll have more to add to this game tomorrow.
Helping me get a better read on you and hopefully convince me that you're town isn't "progressing the game"? Okay. It's this kind of obstinant behavior that kind of makes me want to vote you, but I'm really beginning to think you're just a stubborn townie.
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