Newbie 1471: Italian Ice (Game Over!)
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- Hayate Yagami
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Hayate Yagami Townie
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- Hayate Yagami
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Hayate Yagami Townie
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- Hayate Yagami
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Nah, if I were an alt, no chance I'd join a newbie game without saying so. That sounds crazy immoral. I've been a lurker here a long time tho and read a lot of games; so I'm pretty familiar with lingo and am reading ongoings so I know about player activity. So I'm mostly doing this as its a chance to refine my scumhunting and get opinions about my play from people far better than I.In post 1188, emeraldemon wrote:@Hayate Yagami
Your account is brand new, but you sound like someone with a lot of experience, maybe on this site specifically (referring to nacho's activity elsewhere for example). Is this an alt account or something? If you want to remain mysterious I can dig it, but I like to know where players are coming from.
Fair enough! Let's see here. I haven't really liked bjc from the beginning, since although he has been making moves to generate content, he never actually does anythingIn post 1188, emeraldemon wrote:Also your catchup post is really long, would you mind summarizing your bjc read please?withthat content. This is blatant in #35: he actually comments on what resulted from this vote, but merely says "interesting" instead of actually putting up anything of value. And if you proceed to look at his votes... they're pretty bad. He reaction votes you for no apparent reason except that you were attacking ika (which makes his aggressive stance on Rob W for voting for no reason kind of hypocritical, really), and then wagon votes nacho a good 50 posts later. Also without giving any reasons. Does the exact same thing with abbott and then my slot. His vote on ika later on is just awful, this is after calling ika town in his reply to RayFrost in #208, saying that RayFrost's scumread of ika is off on #197, and calling ika a solid townread back on #145, with nothing really seeming to cause a shift in opinion. Yet he suddenly warrants pressure? He then says that he has a hard time believing ika is scum and yet ika is worthy of an investigation 3 posts later.
And then, after all that pressure on TS and ED, he shifts to easy mislynch pisskop without giving any particular rationale. Like looking at his iso you see a post here or thing with sniping or a quick 1-liner but nothing resembling a solid case. The only thing that really saves him here is that he was willing to swing back to you once that wagon appeared to be gaining momentum.
Now, let's talk about other stuff. His reads are just bad. As noted his ika read is erratic as heck, and he suddenly turns on pisskop with pretty much no coherent rationale. Some of his reads in his analysis post are completely unexplained (see RayFrost being one of the towniest when he didn't even comment on him). He found Abbott scummy at the start of the game but did absolutely nothing to pressure that slot up until Sakura came in, and he has made a special effort to not comment on Sakura at all. (Like I just searched "Sakura" in his ISO, he has said literally nothing about her except asking why she's scummy and saying that he sees no TS-Sakura connections, which is basically the equivalent of nothing).
And then there's his blatant survivalism surrounding the Rob wagon, and some posts that just give me bad vibes in general- that joke about scum hammering and that overreaction at the beginning of the game, for instance.
Most of my read is based off ika, yeah. I find you trickier to read; looking back at your ISO you have been providing reads, but no incredibly strong content and unlike ika you aren't really making any massive waves, finding it easier to sit in the back a bit more and poke and prod players with questions. Overall a lot of your questions have been decently proactive though and your interaction with ED in particular did feel like genuine scumhunting, so you haven't done all that much to cause me existing read on the slot to change.In post 1190, fferyllt wrote:Hayate, I take it your read of me is entirely based on ika?
bjc, why is pisskop scum? And what are your feelings on Sakura at the moment?
ffery, convince me on bjc-town. I'm not feeling it at all at the moment and would much prefer a wagon on bjc to a wagon on emerald or pisskop. (Or Tier, for that matter, but I don't think that's happening today)
Sakura, why do you think I have your slot as null right now? I'm curious as to your thoughts on my read on you. Also, what makes bjc town?
RayFrost (Do you have any preferred shorthand? Ray feels a bit casual; would you prefer Frost?), let's put our Imagination Caps on and imagine Hypothetical World Y where bjc is scum. Exactly how do you feel the wagons on him would be different in such an instance?
(Annoyingly, it looks like my links don't work, sorry about that. Not sure what I did wrong there. You'll either have to dig through people's isos to see exactly which posts I'm getting at, reread the game, or, well, ask me. ^_^;)- Hayate Yagami
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That's kind of it. It's a bit like abbott where, as I noted around 300 posts in (I believe) I still didn't have a single post of his that I felt was worthy of comment. You're kind of the same way. You decently back up your argument regarding replacements and their likelihood of being scum (I don't think it's a great one but you defend it decently) and overall your hammer gambit felt roughly pro-town, but that's not exactly an impossible gambit to fake as scum. And although you've been posting more content than abbott I can never quite pin you down, which really concerns me.In post 1199, Sakura Hana wrote: I don't see why you'd want my thoughts of your read on me, only thing i'd be thinking would be "Why after so many posts someone still can't sort me?", tho if you're paranoid because you can't tell then i'd understand that.
What about his latest posts have you liked? His eagerness for a hammer, for instance, has done anything but give me good vibes. What was good about his fake-hammer reactions? How did you feel about his earlier posts while he was under pressure, which definitely were survivalist?In post 1199, Sakura Hana wrote: I liked his reactions when he was under pressure, and his reactions to the fake hammer, and i've also liked his latest posts.
Also, I know you think nacho's town, and you've played a decent amount of games with him, and you've said you have him as town for meta reasons. What about his play thus far meshes with his pro-town meta in your opinion?- Hayate Yagami
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I'd agree with this a bit more if it felt like the day was lagging and no content was being generated. But discussions are happening, people are posting content, and he still seems to be pushing for a hammer? It feels less like apathy and more like an attempt to shut down discussion to me, honestly.In post 1201, Sakura Hana wrote: his eagerness for hammer just shows that he's tired of how this day keeps going on and on and on, it shows he's being affected by apathy, which is scum's weapon (scum would just keep silent overall and let town fall into apathy instead).
How do you feel about the case I made earlier, which is more focused on his votes and reads? What flaws do you see in it?
How do you think that meshes with #608, where his attitude is suddenly the opposite: "Oh, lynch me, whatever?" In retrospect this feels kind of weird; ika pressures him to not act survivalistically, and thus instead he switches to the opposite?In post 1201, Sakura Hana wrote:Newbtown tends to act more survivalist, i'd expect newbscum to self-hammer to end discussion OR fake claim a PR to draw the actual PR.
Also, yeah. LMB was really kind of passive in his scumhunting, and that's not an attitude I'm going to take; I feel like getting out active feelers is a much better strategy on both ends.
This is definitely the best case on Tier I've seen thus far this game, I think. I still feel like I can see pro-town thought processes in Tier's posts and Tier's thoughts echo mine at some junctures which I always perceive as a slight town read, but your logic is still decent.In post 1189, emeraldemon wrote: I've put a lot of thought into it anyway, and the answer I get out is "probably scum". It's hard for me to argue with him for townreading me since in my mind all my posts are town, but that doesn't stop me from being suspicious about it, and specifically about him not responding to my scumreading of him, or him not being paranoid of me as scum when I just tricked him as scum last game. And in general his reads have felt suspiciously constant, pushing the same cases basically the whole day. Of course town can do this also, but I think maybe town is less worried about being self-consistent. And being fluid and open to new information is something that's hard for scum to fake I think, so they may compensate by tunneling more.
Which then begs the question... given this, why are you still voting pisskop? What would it take for you to change your vote?
Tier- Come out and play, if you would. You think bcj is scum. Why? Who do you think is a likely scumbuddy? How do you feel about this counter-wagon being made on you? Do you think it's scumdriven?- Hayate Yagami
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But then why doesn't the same apply to pisskop, who got up to L-1 and claimed VT? If Pisskop was scum, wouldn't they just self-hammer/claim PR? Your logic to clear bcj logically should also be used to clear your top scum suspect, which feels weird.In post 1206, Sakura Hana wrote: Hmm... actually now that you mention it, it feels quite odd, when I came in bjc was already getting pressured anyhow and i just thought that if he was scum he would have self-hammered or claimed PR, what do you think about him wanting to get hammered instead of just ending the discussion himself right there?
Also, I could see it a couple ways; he could be scum resigned to his fate but not wanting to self-hammer for whatever reason (because he feels like it's playing against his wincon, etc.) and hope that this resigned bluff would be enough to, at the very least, stall the wagon. But then, I'm not a mind-reader. Heck, he could have been caught-scum that just didn't think to self-hammer. Who knows.
I think that ffery raises a good point, and I dislike that instead of actually explaining her actions and why she hasn't put effort into sorting her thus far, Sakura just leaps to do what ffery says that town-her should be doing.
Why weren't you putting more effort into sorting ffery? Looking, you hadn't asked her a single question all game or really attempted to start a back and forth with her; wouldn't that be beneficial in trying to figure her out?- Hayate Yagami
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Hm, this is actually a valid point. The bjc wagon just kind of... stagnates at L-1 and nothing really happens for a while until ika eventually unvotes, and the pressure slowly shifts to rob and Tier. I see two options here:In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:In the hypothetical situation where bjc is scum for sure without a doubt with interactions akin to this game, there would have been, I'd imagine, a tipping point at which either bjc's buddy was attempting to consistently raise counterwagons (not just one, as consistently trying to push a single one could come across as scummy via the t.v. issue whereas finding things scummy for multiple people is more liable to be seen as active scumhunting and mere disagreement with the bjc wagon) or given up the ghost and gone for the bus. These wouldn't necessarily happen at the same time, but the simple fact that I haven't seen much evidence of people trying to subtly snipe the wagon's momentum or distract from the wagon itself or even a bus makes me inclined to feel that it's simply an issue of too many low hanging fruit for bjc to be lynched.
1. Scum were already part of the rob wagon and thus letting go of that and trying to pursue a different counterwagon to bjc would just look odd and scummy (especially since rob was the only target that even got close to a counterwagon when bjc was floating around at L-1), so the scummate sticks to the easy target and hopes that that will go through and the heat on bjc will die down.
or
2. The scum felt that bjc was going to go down, and decided to try and bus for cred by joining the wagon.
I will admit that I'm no vote count expert though, so I could be off here. But I feel like you're noting the optimal scum play, not seeing the optimal scum play, and then stating that it couldn't possibly have gone in any other fashion because that would be suboptimal for the scum. If I were to guess, I would say that the scum were one of the voters committed to Rob (Nacho being the main candidate) and trying to push that as an alternate wagon, or after they saw the bjc wagon start to gain momentum, they hop onto it to try and pick up the towncred. (Abbott being the main candidate here).
I'll admit that I'm no vote count analysis expert though, so I will concede that you have a point. Out of curiosity, did you look at the case I put up regarding bjc? What did you think of it?
And honestly, Abbott's post kind of feels like a weak distancing/bussing attempt to me, but I'll get there.
Well, let's go back and begin with Abbott. He was most certainly coasting; look at his iso. There's a good chunk of fluff there, as well as some softball questions that make it look like Abbott is generating content, but then he never really does anything with it. A colossal chunk of his posts are just him sparring verbally with Nacho, and others are just weak couple-line statements that to me feel more like active-lurking than anything. Give me solid content from that slot where he isn't passively observing the game, taking shots at Nacho whenever the opportunity presents itself.In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:I'm not really following the sakura case. All I can get out of these interactions in terms of things you guys find scummy is "sakura wasn't pressuring ffery" - hardly particularly convincing. Which leads me to think you have more. Please explain.
And then there's his vote on bcj:
This vote just feels off to me. He's attacking bcj for "going with the flow" during D1, but I don't really see abbott making huge waves either; he seems content to toss out some weak feelers and post reads every few pages without explaining them. And that last part is just bad; it feels like Abbott is saying "Oh, the rob lynch isn't gaining any momentum here, so I'll just cast this vote now, but by adding this caveat I will be perfectly capable of backing out of it whenever I feel like!" It kind of feels like Abbott is reluctantly bussing here because he thinks the wagon is going to go through, but will happily swing back to the easy lurker lynch if given the chance.In post 355, AbboTT wrote:Alright. Rob clearly isn't going to be pressured, so that vote is useless until we make a decision about lynching him.
I'm comfortable putting bjc at L-1. His self-proclaimed "go with the flow" attitude towards D1 doesn't mesh well with my ideal townie profile. I do like that he isn't actively over-defending himself, but I'm starting to read that as scum playing it cool.
All in all, I think he's a solid choice. We will learn a thing as a vote count analysis and some ISOing should yield good info on D2 regardless of his flip.
My mind could be changed for a Rob lynch if anybody is down for that.
bcj
Then Sakura comes in. On a whole her posts aren't awful, but they are incredibly light too; a question here, a bit of pressure there, nothing incredibly substantive. And then she celebrates ffury coming in because she's able to read her, yet not only doesn't try to pressure her at any point or get a dialogue going, but only starts to do it when ffury calls out how strange it is. Then, after asking one pretty weak question, she doesn't go back to it and attack another angle or find something in ffury's response that's worth replying to. It just doesn't feel like genuine sorting. And then you have her weird hypocritical stance on bjc.
That's all that I've got right now; but then it's 3 AM so my mind might be getting a bit foggy at this point.
Emmy is a stronger townread than either of those two, honestly. So I don't really want that lynch either. :\In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:Hayagatemi (fun fact, this is actually easy to say in Japanese): you say you prefer sakura over tier / pisskop, but what about emmy the big green dog?- Hayate Yagami
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Okay, somebody is going to have to actually substantiate the case against Tier or link me to something, because I'm just not seeing it. The closest I've gotten is emerald's case, a player that isn't even voting Tier. (You never answered my question by the way; why were you voting pisskop and not Tier given your case on the latter?)
And while emerald's case is decent, it isn't enough to cancel out the minor townread I have on Tier. I'd much prefer a bcj lynch, but I get that's not happening, and will make do for a Sakura lynch. A pisskop lynch is the worst of the options and the only reason I'd ever vote for him is deadline.
I also think it would be GREAT if bcj would actually answer the questions I asked him a few pages ago.
But for the record if we get up to deadline and ffery hasn't hammered, I'd be happy to. A somewhat controversial townread being lynched is better than no lynch at all. So Tier should probably claim soon; if ffery isn't content with Tier doing it right now, it should still get done ASAP so that if we need to switch targets we aren't stuck.- Hayate Yagami
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In post 1288, bjc wrote:What questions Hayate? I'm sure most of them were already addressed.
And I know that you've given some reasons why Tier was scum in your ISO, but if you could make that argument too that would be great. I'm waiting for a compelling case on that slot that I'm just not seeing.In post 1197, Hayate Yagami wrote: bjc, why is pisskop scum? And what are your feelings on Sakura at the moment?- Hayate Yagami
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That's not an answer. What, specifically, about his posts is scummy?In post 1291, bjc wrote: Literally everything pisskop ever posts comes across as scum to me.
Also, you didn't answer my question about Sakura.- Hayate Yagami
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What about Sakura makes her town?In post 1295, bjc wrote:Sakura is town to me, but that is always subject to change. Sorry, forgot about the part about her.
But weren't you doing the same thing earlier when you were begging people to lynch rob instead of you? What makes Tier different? And weren't you being erratic regarding reads yourself, particularly when it comes to ika? Why is it not-scummy for you to do those things, and scummy for pisskop to?In post 1295, bjc wrote:His flailing, his attempt to get anyone but him to die, his flopping (one moment saying he's willing to die to clear TS, the next moment saying to kill TS)...
I'd be happy to formalize my case for pisskop being town, but a lot of it is more gut feelings I get from his posts than anything substantive.- Hayate Yagami
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I'm confused as to who this is addressed to? Like, the three people who joined the hanawagon, as I recall, were ffery, me, and pisskop. And both ffery and I consider pisskop to be probtown, I believe. So ???In post 1302, RayFrost wrote: All of you on hana's ass that don't see the towniness in kisspop should at least see a little bit of the genuine originality and effort that I've been seeing off of the fact that he brings something up about someone you guys are just now starting to bring things up about.- Hayate Yagami
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What were you expecting to gain from claiming Hana was at L-1, when the vote count was right at the top of the page for everybody to see? This kind of gambit really only works when we haven't had a vote count in a while, and it's harder to check exactly who is at what.In post 1281, emeraldemon wrote:
Don't do this. Why would you do this? Please don't make me regret not lynching you.In post 1278, pisskop wrote:hana's L-2 . . .- Hayate Yagami
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What in particular convinced you?In post 1309, emeraldemon wrote: I believe the things people are saying about pisskop, I can see him as probably town.- Hayate Yagami
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In post 613, Sakura Hana wrote:
I agree with thisIn post 612, bjc wrote:ED is a great starting point, IMO.
Vote: ED
Go counterwagon!
What in particular caused you to change your opinion on ED in those 100 posts, Sakura?In post 716, Sakura Hana wrote:In post 715, TierShift wrote:Rob still scum? Ed?Ed has gone town for me,Rob at least this time seems like he's going to be replaced... which makes me incredibly skeptical because 3/4 times i replace into a newbie slot it's a scum slot. I think i rather push for ika at this point.- Hayate Yagami
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Eh, I can't really make a particularly solid Tier-town case; to be the defending of Rob felt very genuine, as did his eventual push-back from Rob after Nacho and Sakura presented their case and Nacho clarified what his case on Rob was exactly. And posts like 670 feel to me like genuine scumhunting. Not to mention that our thought processes are very similar, and that always gets players town points from me.
Note the next line. (And hey, no offense. It's just you're a null slight scum read, so I'd rather you die than a weak town read like Tier.) A couple things have made me slightly more hesitant, but not enough to not want a Sakura lynch over a Tier lynch, honestly.In post 1317, Sakura Hana wrote:In post 1311, Hayate Yagami wrote:Sakura's at L-2. Can still make a Sakura lynch happen, people!
=/In post 1301, GuyInFreezer wrote:Deadline counter: 0 days, 3 hours, 29 minutes
I still want TS or kop lynched. I may be able to be around during the whole deadline but if i have to leave in a hurry i'll claim.
Also, see my above question.- Hayate Yagami
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That isn't an answer to the question, though. Why am I scum, when you didn't mention me being scum a single time since I replaced in, and the last time you read lmb, pisskop and Sakura's slots were both scummier to you? And why ffery, when ika was above me in your previous read of her slot and you didn't say a single thing about ffery being scum since she replaced in?In post 1340, bjc wrote:
Do you think hayateIn post 1337, fferyllt wrote:
Why is hayate in your next group?In post 1334, bjc wrote:I was going to vote ED. ED turned out to be the cop, so I'm a little shocked there.
My next group consists of ffery and hayate but I need to look over Sakura's posts.shouldn'tbe in that group?
Also, what happened to your suspicion of pisskop?
Nacho, talk to me about pisskop scum. I quite believe him to be town, so I'm going to need some convincing here.
Tier's flip does give Nacho some townpoints in my book for switching to Tier, when he was abandoning both the pisskop wagon and ignoring the Sakura wagon when it was gaining momentum.
The flip is making me think that I could use a hard reset on this game; I think I'll be back later with a vote-count analysis and some analysis of Tier interactions with everybody.- Hayate Yagami
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In your opinion has he done anything pro-town this game that would warrant you being more hesitant to vote him, or is it just entirely because you can't read him? And if you can't read him, then why would you still be happy to hop onto his bandwagon? To me, that would be more reason to be wary of such bandwagons, since if I think a player is always scummy, logically I'm going to think they're an easy lynch as well, which could easily be exploited by scum.In post 1347, bjc wrote:In post 1342, bjc wrote:It should be noted that pisskop is always scummy in my eyes, so I'm willing to wagon him too if the town sheeps Nacho's vote.
Also, why didn't you answer my other question(s)?- Hayate Yagami
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For the record, Scum-Hayate's Devious Gambit this game would apparently be: Call the scum that was bandwagoned to L-1 near deadline town, explain why I thought him to be town, continue to push an emergency counterwagon to save my buddy, yet instead of just staying off MS near deadline and make it dependent on somebody else to push a lynch through, hammer him myself, when it pretty clearly would grant me no towncred given how I had previously made it clear that I thought Tier was town. I'm... not sure exactly where the scum benefit is in me doing all this?
I also don't think that pisskop's meta on killing people he thinks is town means all that much, given how emerald flipped to him being town in their last couple posts.
Went out to dinner and have schoolwork I need to do, but I promise that that analysis is coming.
Also, bjc, why are you continuing to ignore my questions? I have less of a scumread on you given Tier's flip, but you really aren't helping me get a firmer read on you.- Hayate Yagami
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Okay, let's do this then.
Interactions with TierShift:
Spoiler: Abott/Sakura
Spoiler: bjc
Spoiler: ika/ffery
Spoiler: Nacho
Spoiler: Rob W/Pisskop
Spoiler: RayFrost
So yeah, really after analyzing everybody's interactions with Tier, Sakura's slot looks the worst to me quite easily. I already posted a case on Sakura yesterday, so I guess I'm right back to where I started.
VOTE: Sakura
I may look Tier-Sakura interactions and do a wagon analysis later; this has kind of worn me out a bit. So many posts...
Helping me get a better read on you and hopefully convince me that you're town isn't "progressing the game"? Okay. It's this kind of obstinant behavior that kind of makes me want to vote you, but I'm really beginning to think you're just a stubborn townie.bjc wrote: I don't feel like answering your questions really helps progress the game, but I don't remember what the questions were in the first place. I'll have more to add to this game tomorrow. - Hayate Yagami
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