Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[mastin2]

Well, that was fast.

FUCK YEAH
I'M EXCITED AS FUCK FOR THIS GAME AND THE SCUM TEAM IS GONNA GET FUCKED
LET'S FUCKING GO

vote: Kaze

bc he's always scum \o/

Is this your scumgame pie?

'Cause this feels forced-as-hell.

people are sheeping me and I have yet to post, wtf

Well, not unjustifiably so. You're pretty damn town even on page one, and your other head

had

posted (with, y'know, the two of you basically merging into a single entity), soyeah.

Yeah, it's called respect. Enjoy it while you can.

The sheep votes might have started off of respect and reputation, but they will end off of obvtowning (done), charisma, and good reads.

Sangres is a mild townread, but I'll need a whole HECK of a lot more from both of them to strengthen that.

/Page one.

VOTE: pieguyn.

[mastin2]

Sangres, what is your read on Kaze and Brian Skies?

Town and town.
I havent read any of their posts but probability is on my side and maybe Brian made a post that seemed pretty town?

For the record, I also agree with this.

Okay, pie. I'll be blunt. Normally, when you're town, I can generally get an air for it. Maybe not an absolute air, but a general air of it. What I'm seeing here has an utter lack of it. It feels weak. Half-hearted. Fake. As if you're playing a game of manipulation rather than analysis.

no he's just always scum

even if he has a town role PM

VOTE: Pieguy

SSK is officially town. This is his townplay. Aside from that, when he and I synch up our reads, it's also an excellent sign that he's town, too. (Even though I can nearly-guarantee we'll diverge later.)

/2.

[mastin2]

I'll be honest: When it comes to this series of questions from Kaze, my instinctive reaction is "kinda sorta feels faked". It's something I

can

see being legitimate scumhunting, but can also see as being scum faking it.
When it comes to a similar series of questions from Skull, though, my instinctive reaction is, "Oh! Yeah! That's town, alright."

Skull is town, Kaze is scum.

Dammit, AP. Stop stealing my thunder!
(May or may not actually be AP, but doesn't matter--AFB is town.)

hi guyz

whats going on

Well, I think you're town, to a decent degree of certainty, but I'm going to need more from ya to be sure.

Skull is town, Kaze is scum.

Agree, Disagree. Ceph prob-town too.

VOTE: Brian

I like your posting, even if I don't agree with it. (Cephrir is kinda nullish-scum to me.)

[5] Brian Skies (Kazekirimaru, pieguyn, Flandre Scarlet, Skullduggery, Kagami)

Not really liking this wagon. Skull's almost certainly town, and Kagami's got a high probability of being town, yet the other three...not so much. (Which is another reason to townread Brian Skies. )

Venmar (sixth on the wagon) is prob-town.

Vote: Brian

i don't think brian is scum

Is probably town, but I need more to be sure. (Seventh.)

Metal Sonic (8) is basically null, but Cephrir's aversion to the wagon feels bad. It feels like scum-WKing-town to me.

Brian (9 and L-2) basically solidifies himself as being town with that self-vote, by the way.

And now I'm feeling the effects of trying to RVS wagon Jesus.

Well, duh. People like to defend their faith a lot, and attacking the central figure in their belief system is not going to go over very well.

(Also, by the end of that page, zMuff looks more town.)
/4.

Have to leave, so the remaining three pages will come in approximately 45 minutes from now.

[mastin2]

pieguy is actually scum

Yes, yes he is. Problem is finding out who his scumbuddies are.

[10] Brian Skies (Kazekirimaru, pieguyn, Flandre Scarlet, Skullduggery, Kagami, Varsoon, zMuffinMan, Metal Sonic, Brian Skies, orcinus_theoriginal)

Yeeeeeeeeah, thinking Metal Sonic and Orc might be the later-scum additions to the wagon. With pie and maaaaaaaaaaaybe Kaze as early-starters. The wagon's likely not going to have all the scum on it, and I'd wager probably no more than three. (There being either 4 or 5 in the game.) Could feasibly be as low as two, though I'm not going lower than that.

Definitely think that one of or perhaps both of Kaze/Metal Sonic are scum. It's difficult to tell if Kaze is bussing, Kaze's town and Metal Sonic's scum, or Kaze's scum and Metal Sonic's town. I don't think they're both town, but that's all I've got right now.

Fun Fact: In the last Xeno game, the L-3 wagon on TD at the start of the game only had 1 scum on it.

And it was the last scum we caught.

Indeed, but this wagon feels different. It's not an all-scum wagon, but I'd be surprised if it was mostly or entirely town. Like I said, I'm betting either two or three scum on it. Probs not Skull, Kagami, Varsoon, zMuff, or Brian Skies. But could be Kaze (nullscum), pie (scum), Flandre Scarlet (null), Metal Sonic (nullscum), or orcinus (nullish, maaaaaybe nulltown; difficult to be certain).

57 is not great. Also, I hate walls of text.

If Kaze is scum, lynch this shit. Kaze made a similar wall, but which was much worse than Skull's wall--why'd you glaze over it, Aegor?

That said, if Kaze's town, I'm wagering that Cephrir is scum. I don't think both Aegor and Cephrir are scum, nor do I think Cephrir-Kaze have interacted like scumbuddies, but I do think that there's scum in those interactions.

@mastin: Not sure I follow the bro read.

How exactly can you not? They're obvtown as hell. Even better, their reads are sorta in synch with my own.

Cabd's becoming a townread. Am liking the sangres interactions as well.

Maybe if I knew Flandre's main, this sort of post wouldn't ring all kinds of alarm bells. Since I don't, it does.

Ceph continues to look bad, and I don't understand the townreads there at all.

/caught up.

[mastin2]

Oh!

Just realized.

Fuck yeah, this game's a town win.

BRO is town.
Nacho is town.

They never lose.

We win.

I'm also feeling great this game, which helps. I feel like the town players here are already in the process of synching up, just like last Xeno game, and that the scum are trapped on the outside for the most part. I generally don't feel like instantly flipping the switch, but this game is going so damn awesomely that I kinda sorta feel like I almost could flip it right here and now and be that pseudo-scumhunting-god.

[mastin2]

1. ActionDan
^Nullish-town. Need more from Danny boy, but his posting thusfar sorta seems town.

2. Aegor
^Scummy. Can be scum with Kaze easily, but I see him as town if Kaze is town. I also see him as town if Cephrir is scum.

3. Angry Frat Bros (BROseidon + AngryPidgeon)
^Town. These guys are townposting like champs.

4. Brian Skies
^Also town. Brian Skies gives off the aura of a town player who doesn't give a crap about the wagon on him. He's relaxed, he's casual, and he's also not being a lurkaderp; he's still putting time, effort, and analysis into the game.

5. Cabd
^Town. I admittedly do not know Cabd that well; I'm not sure I've seen his scumgame and am not intimately familiar with his towngame. But his posting so far just feels like town, and that's good enough for me.

6. Cephrir
^Scummy, and opposite of Aegor: if Kaze's town, he's scum. If Aegor's scum, though, he'd be town.

7. Flandre Scarlet
^Nullish-scum.

8. Kagami
^Town. I can see the aura of towniness emitting from Kagami right now, and it is clear as can be.

9. Kazekirimaru
^Nullish-scum. While I can see elements of a town mindset present, for the most part, what I'm seeing just doesn't

feel

town. Right now, I'm actually guessing town with Pie/Cephrir as scum, but it easily could be Pie/Aegor/Kaze.

10. macmollie (mac + pirate mollie)
^Fairly decently town. Mollie hasn't done much, but what she has done gave me an immediate townvibe from her.

11. MafiaSSK
^Also town. This is SSK's townmeta, through-and-through, and his posting has been goodposting, too.

13. Metal Sonic
^Nullish-scum. Not liking his posting so far.

14. orcinus_theoriginal
^Nullish-town. Could be scum, but the claim makes me lean slightly towards town.

15. pieguyn
^Scum. This isn't a town pie. I don't know how I know this, but it simply...

isn't

.

16. sangres (fferyllt + Nachomamma8)
^Town. Sangres's posting so far has definitely been that of their towngame.

17. Skullduggery
^Also town. Meta points help, but I also found that Skull's posting regardless of meta still looked town overall, because it didn't feel forced, it didn't feel faked; it felt like natural town posting.

18. Varsoon
^Also also town. This is Varsoon's townposting.

19. Venmar
^Null. Don't really remember Venmar's posting, which is a bad sign.

20. zMuffinMan
^Town. This is a town-Muffin, through-and-through.

I'll be back later to compile this into an official list; short on time, so gotta go.

[mastin2]

If you think the wagon is scummy, why do you dislike me for not jumping on it?

Because of the way you didn't jump on it. Like I said--two, maybe three scum on it. Not all the scum. They'd want to avoid that.

What about that post makes you think completely precludes them from both being town? o.o
The Kaze-town MS-scum possibility from that post makes especially little sense to me.

Nothing. Just my general analysis. Kaze looks sorta scummy, MS looks sorta scummy, so I don't think they're both town. Simple.

Literally can't believe you just handwaved my entire post

Clarification: I understand your "townreads". I don't understand why YOU have townreads on ya.

There is not nearly enough evidence to support either of these reads

Sure isn't, but that doesn't mean they're not right. BRO's town, Nacho's town; game is a town win.

That's literally his entire fucking ISO, mastin.

So? It's townish. Not really town, but town enough.

If Brian flips Town, I'd be more inclined to look at who

wasn't

on his wagon to find Scum since I imagine that Scum off the wagon wouldn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

True, but this also applies to the beginning of the wagon--those on it early didn't know what was coming, thus, could be scum.

Can you go into a bit more detail about why you find Cephrir scummy? He's a tentative Town read of mine since his suspicion of me seems to be coming from a Town mindset, so I'm interested in hearing counter-arguments to either solidify or change this read, and I believe you're the first person to express suspicion of Cephrir.

Not right now, but maybe later. Basically, he could be town, but his posting feels like scum manipulating things rather than town scumhunting.

The only thing that SSK has done so far is vote for Pieguyn.

So? (And technically speaking, there was more than just the vote.)

the way I see it, town-you stays light and waffles a lot, and then sometime later when your picture of the game state is correct you figure it out and start owning the fk out of the scum.

Surprised me, too! I literally had no clue I was going to come in and be like, "wow, that...seemed surprisingly easy". Which is the main reason I haven't already flipped the switch; generally if I think I'm this good, it's because my reads have gone horribly wrong rather than actually being that damn good.

not to mention you voted me before you even finished reading the thread. if you hadn't read the thread why would you park your vote on me so soon?

Because I saw you as suspicious?
Suspicion that only grew as I saw and continue to see your posting?

also, where are you currently at with zmuffin?

Town, hands-down. It's not an absolute read, but it's a reasonably-strong read all the same.

PEdit: Wow Ceph looks town.

That post was a whole bundle-load of null, though.

(And, yeah, orc could be scum, but I'm not certain of that.)

Hey Mastin and I's reads are syncing! This is a good sign!

Extremely!

Pieguys walls on this page feel town. But I dunno.

Would love to see you explain, since to me it seems like more of the same, only worse.

I think after we've played as MastinSSK, we've both gotten to know each other better. Mastin to a way better extent of me than vice versa, but the point remains.

I also was fairly good at telling your alignment before-hand; MastinSSK just made it much easier. Butyeah, both town.

lol @ people thinking mastin is scum

Indeed.

[mastin2]

What about that specific post made it more likely to come from a town mindset than a scum mindset?

Because it fits my understanding of Action Dan as town and not as scum? It's one post. It's not strong. But it's there. It's a read.

[mastin2]

TOWN:
MafiaSSK
Angry Frat BROs
Sangres
zMuffinman

Skullduggery
Kagami

Varsoon
macmollie
Cabd
Brian Skies (fairly interchangeable with Cabd, but overall weaker)

LEANING TOWN:
ActionDan
orcinus_theoriginal

LYNCH POOL:
pieguyn
Aegor (mutually exclusive with Cephrir)
Cephrir (mutually exclusive with Aegor)
Kazekirimaru
Metal Sonic
Flandre Scarlet

NULL:
Venmar

So basically, 7 or so names for scum candidates, maaaaaaaaaaaaybe eight if you bump orcinus down--I need a little over half that. (I'm

guessing

five scum for this game, but it's difficult to be certain if it's four or five.)

I'm otherwise preoccupied, so I'll see if I can analyze the details later.

[mastin2]

so you as town came into this thread and immediately posted a full reads list despite 1. thinking your reads might have gone horribly wrong and 2. some people only having like 1 or 2 posts?

Not immediately. My reads list is the sixth in my iso. But yes. I did. Number of posts doesn't matter; I've got the read and I'm going to say as much.

if you're having doubts about your reads then why would you immediately declare a reads list like that? but here you feel perfectly comfortable announcing firm reads on people who only have like 1 post?

Yeah? I mean. I have the reads. They're probably wrong, but they're what I'm feeling all the same.

if you were considering "flipping the switch" this early and thus thought there was a chance all your reads could be terribly wrong, why wouldn't you say so considering

you did the same thing in imperishable night?

Not sure you understand what that expression means. I basically have said exactly this--that the reason I haven't flipped the switch is because I'm generally not

this

accurate early on. Basically, I feel, gut-wise, that my reads are awesome enough to basically flip the switch now. Rationally-wise, I know better. I'm

not

that good, even though I FEEL like I am. Basically, I AM confident. I just know said confidence will eventually waver.

Town, hands-down. It's not an absolute read, but it's a reasonably-strong read all the same.

so you somehow have a "hands-down" town read despite the fact that he's done fuck all so far?

Yep! Join the club with Cephrir, Cabd, and several others chastising me for it. It's there. It exists. I have it. That's the best explanation I can give.

[mastin2]

wow really.

I'm still going to murder you

Would you prefer a faked scumread?

I'll be honest: When it comes to this series of questions from Kaze, my instinctive reaction is "kinda sorta feels faked". It's something I can see being legitimate scumhunting, but can also see as being scum faking it.
When it comes to a similar series of questions from Skull, though, my instinctive reaction is, "Oh! Yeah! That's town, alright."

So, why do they feel different?

If I knew this, that'd make things so much simpler. It's called "feeling" because it's FEELING, not knowing. Skull's posting looks like it comes from a town mindset, scumhunting. Yours...didn't.

General agreements here, but why do you think so?

Well, it's hard to say. It felt like the distinctive trolling of a town-zMuff. (zMuff trolls regardless of alignment, obv, but this trolling felt like town-trolling.) Since then, it's been much stronger. This is his town self. I have a fairly good grasp of it, and to a high degree of certainty, I can say that it's him. Yeah, I could be wrong--but I'm almost certainly not.

What makes this one feel different?

Well, that game, it felt like it was fairly town overall anyway. I seem to recall I said as much. Something like "I realize that it seems improbable, but I REALLY don't see who the scum here could be, except maybe *one player of the eight*." Said player was wrong, but my analysis was correct; it was a town-driven wagon.

This one felt different. It felt like it was mainly driven by town, but not entirely driven by town--that there should be two or three scum.

What did you think of his selfvote?

Contributes to the townread but is not the entirety of it.

Agreements. But again, why?

Well, because Kagami's posting just seems, well, like it comes from a townset without manipulation. Like, that it's actually town posting.

10. macmollie (mac + pirate mollie)
^Fairly decently town. Mollie hasn't done much, but what she has done gave me an immediate townvibe from her.

How?

Well, because I have a decent grip on mollie and this feels like a town mollie. She's playing basically as I'd expect a town her to do so, rather than a scum her. Not much to see, sure, but enough for that read.

Take a little trip with me.

Indeed, because you have to be on a trip in order to see me as scum.

It's not true of the two games that I played with scum-Mastin. And in my prior meta-forays, I found him to be arrogant and confident in some of his town games. But, I don't constantly re-meta or read ALL the games like some players I could mention.

For the record. It's cyclic. It goes back and forth. I even said this in some of my previous games. The town me of a few months ago is the scum me of the present...and vice-versa. Really depends. It's actually more of a "Mastin's mental health" tell than it is of an alignment-tell. And right now, I'm thinking I'm beating depression, so...happy thoughts = happy town play.

[mastin2]

Mastin, when you attempt to turn in your AP Calc homework with just answers and no work shown, don't be fucking surprised when everyone thinks you cheated and already had the answer sheet.

Fun fact:

I used mental math for concepts that most people couldn't do without calculations for

years

. In fact, my mental math often proved more accurate than my written math, because mentally, I came to the right answer, but when trying to do the processes that I had skipped, I made mistakes--sometimes obviously, or sometimes knowing they were mistakes yet not being able to figure out *why* they were mistakes.

I was later forced to learn to write it down because my teacher refused to give credit for the mental math, in spite of me having absolutely no method of cheating and my answers largely being right anyway. Understandably, I was worse at math for a while before I learned how to adjust.

So, yes, I can be surprised that people think I cheated, because I'm an honorable guy, for the most part. I expect me saying "No, I didn't cheat; that'd just be cheating myself. Why would I cheat?", means that people won't think I'm cheating, since I wasn't. I just did it, naturally. Granted, there were some things I needed to work at--to study. But for the most part, math was intuitive. I grasped the concept, and really really

got

it. (I did have trouble tying separate concepts together, though. Doing one, was fine. Doing the other, was fine. Doing both, my mind broke down.) Anything I write down is mostly a formality in math for me having already worked out the answer. The mind's faster than the hand.

...You probably need a better metaphor.

[mastin2]

No, YOU need to give me one of your patented walls'o'text telling me what the baseline for dantown and danscum entry posts is; and how specifically this matches the town baseline more. This is a team game, not a "stroke mastin's inflated ego" game.

It feels like Walking Dead and that one New York game, not Pinkmin?

Like. That's what I've got. That it felt like his more casual scumhunting self, not his scum self.

[mastin2]

vomit

That mean you scumread Kaze?

pie has already responded beautifully to this (honestly 278 is probably the best post in this thread).

But basically, that post boiled down is insisting that there's a contradiction between me feeling awesome about my reads and having confidence in them, and me knowing that I'm likely wrong and said confidence will later waver. When, bluntly, there isn't; the two are entirely separate things.

are you giving us that silly dichotomy and immediately quickreading bro & nacho? then you gonna let them live till lylo if it happens? yo have you forgotten xeno 1 with me & bro & nacho (even though that was partially my fault yea) and because bro and nacho thought each other so town i had to be kicked instead ? and you still dare to pull this sort of early crap gut reads are you serious? no you arent

Uh...Nacho and BRO were both town in Xeno, and you were scum encouraging their fight? Nacho's town. BRO's town. If they live 'til lylo, it's because the scum had higher kill priorities or were utterly incompetent; they're both town, and not getting lynched.

I am so not understanding all of the mastin hate. Could someone explain?

A lack of explanation is the reason.

hey guys MS and kaze and i are gonna be inthread mason buddies from now on ty

Funny, I was just going to say this of Muffin, MafiaSSK, and maaaaaaaaaybe AFB/sangres.

But I must admit...this feels off. Mastin is supposedly one of the most experienced players around. To be felled by such a thing as this? I don't know. I'd expect scum-Mastin to have more chops than that.

Not to mention one would expect scum to contrive reasoning when pressured. Mastin is literally saying "It is because it feels that way and that's all I got." Not even an ounce of fuck-giving. Would scum be so brash as to just put down reads with no reasoning and not even bother to explain? Even when pressured? It wouldn't be the first time I've seen scum just take the "I don't care" route, but I'm not sure it would come from Mastin.

I've got a serious case of the Thisfeelstooeasys.

While this is goodposting with your words, your actions do not back it.

there are differences in the way mastin approaches the game as scum/town and there are differences in the way he sounds as scum/town. it's not as simple as "arrogance" or "hesitance" or anything like that so i have trouble describing what the actual difference is.

This is actually a surprisingly-good description.

[7] mastin2 (Angry Frat BROs, Cephrir, pieguyn, Cabd, Kazekirimaru, Metal Sonic, orcinus_theoriginal)

AFB's town. Cabd's still a townread. Other than that...this wagon's pretty much crap. Cephrir's a scumread, especially if Kaze's town. (I'm beginning to lean that way.) Pie's scum, and hilariously obviously so. Metal Sonic's probably also scum. Orc's probably but not certainly not scum, but is still playing awfully weak.

{mastin, pieguy}

Yeeeeeeah, no. I might bus when I feel it's appropriate, but immediately hard-bussing pie, fuck no. Choose one or the other. Not both.

(Also, side-note, I find it hilarious how people are quoting various different ideas of what mastin-meta is when they're all simultaneously wrong and right, because they're drawing experiences from entirely different games. )

Metal Sonic - Town for post 137 alone. Obvious town even. If you can't see it, then I can't help you.

Well, then, I'm beyond help. There was something in there I could see as town, masked by stuff that looked like scum.

You're being pretty quiet.

Indeed, but it's something to only get worried about if it continues.

Like AP's townreads aside from Metal Sonic, and scum list aside from zMuff and now probably Kaze.

[mastin2]

I take back my ActionDan townread, by the way, on grounds of him being a lurker.

Can you go into a bit more detail about why you find Cephrir scummy? He's a tentative Town read of mine since his suspicion of me seems to be coming from a Town mindset, so I'm interested in hearing counter-arguments to either solidify or change this read, and I believe you're the first person to express suspicion of Cephrir.

Not right now, but maybe later. Basically, he could be town, but his posting feels like scum manipulating things rather than town scumhunting.

Do you get this feeling from anybody else?

Yep, pie for sure. Minus the bit about him having a town mindset. Squinting really hard, I could maybe take random pieces of his iso and rub them together and maybe sorta-semi-think it could vaguely resemble townposting, but aside from that...

At the time you listed SSK as Town, he had only made three posts: 48, 49, and 50. I don't see how you get a Town read from that, which means that you must be seeing something that I'm not. I would like to know what that something is.

Because SSK is my mason buddy.

I know SSK. I know his meta, I know his mindset. This is not a scum SSK. Not in a million years. He's so damn transparent that you don't NEED more than that to read him; he is town.

If Mastin does get lynched and flips Town, where would you be likely to look to find Scum?

Well, I never get lynched as town anyway, and not through lack of scum trying, so...it's not going to happen. When Mastin does

die

, though, you can look for scum in those he's been pushing as scum.

[mastin2]

This is actually a surprisingly-good description.

surprisingly?

Yep, wasn't expecting someone to come up with wording that was that, well, effective.

[mastin2]

You have yet to give any reason for thinking AFB and sangres are town despite having been asked multiple times. And frankly I don't think you can, the latter in particular have done precisely nothing unfakeable or actually even particularly town on a surface level.

AFB is town because this is their towngame through-and-through. Their mindset is town, their posting is town, and critically, their thought process largely matches up with my own. Their insights look like solid scumhunting, and overall, I don't see any manipulation in their posting.

Sangres is town mostly because of their interactions with others. I pick up the exact same feeling of them that I did in Walking Dead, in that they're being town, but in their more subtle way. Their posting could have manipulation in it, but doesn't feel like it does; it feels more like the type of analysis that comes from a ffery/Nacho hybrid style. (And, yes, their posting does come across as exactly what they're a hydra of. It's not quite Nacho but not quite ffery, lingering somewhere between.)

Your wagon is scum? What an original insight!

Egos aside, yes, the wagon on me is scum. Not nearly as scum-filled as my ego wants it to be, but the wagon on me is, simply put, objectively bad. The speed of the wagon is bad, the reasoning behind it is pretty dang weak, most of the players on it are people I cast suspicion onto (making their votes largely OMGUSy), and beyond that, are acting suspicious in areas other than their vote on me, anyway.

There's still no reason for your stupid kaze-me-aegor dichotomy and you seem to think ignoring me will make that fact go away.

The reasoning is because of your interaction with Kaze. Aegor's looked like it could be from a scumbuddy. (I am now thinking Kaze and Aegor are both town.) Yours looked like it came from scum, buddying town.

cephir why you so cranky

Because he's probably scum?

DESPITE knowing you're likely wrong, you make no mention of this whatsoever, and instead DECLARE A LYNCH POOL 24 HOURS INTO THE GAME. whereas a town you would take extra care to make sure everyone knows your reads might be all wrong, explicitly because there's a good chance they're all wrong. you have said before that town wins by maintaining a high level of transparency and a high flow of information. *blahblahextraranting*

Thing is, you're pushing the idea that I'm not being transparent with these things, that I'm not mentioning the doubt, but the thing about that is...well...it's kinda obvious. I haven't been mentioning the doubt specifically

because

of the transparency. It's there in my posts. I don't need to say it every single time when it's laid out. You also are pushing the idea that "OMG reads list = absolute!", when you of all people would know my reads lists change...a lot.

pieguy still not town

Indeed. Though that post is admittedly a much better display, it is still not his town self. Not even close.

Unlike Mastin who judges immediately and is probably wrong/scum

On the contrary, I am constantly changing my mind on everything. Continuously passing "judgment", every time I post, every day I read, at all times, continuing to update. That doesn't mean I change my judgments every time; my townreads on zMuff/MafiaSSK/AFB/Sangres don't waver nor does my scumread on pie. But I'm not turning a blind eye to their posting, contrary to what you're saying.

(Also, MS is scum for this post.)

What does Scum SSK look like? For those of us who aren't so intimately familiar with his meta, what should we be looking for?

It's...kinda difficult to explain. It's not so much lurking, but basically...a town SSK is a player generally underestimated, who makes good analysis and good insight for those paying attention. That, he's showed. Its absence is his scumgame. Basically, town-him is analytical; scum-him is survivalistic. This is not him surviving. But I think this is a very poor explanation of it. Just...read some of his town games and compare them to his scum games. They're nothing alike.

(Also, Skull's ridiculously town. Like, seriously, RIDICULOUSLY town.)

that masonry didn't last long

Yes, because it was one likely formed by scum, in contrast to ours.

VOTE: Cephrir
All aboard that scum wagon.

P-edit: Join me, bus for cred before its too late.

Cephrir is probably scum, yes, but not certainly scum. For me, that's pie. What do you think of him?

Dan might be mafia. his posts look sort of town, but I'm not seeing Dan-town specifically here.

Get out of my head. >_<

pie/kaze back & forth is strange. not so much kaze's posting but pies, especially agreeing with kaze about brian so quickly when his line of question appeared to be questioning kaze on his brian vote. plus I'm not so sure about the "scum are more aware of supersaints" theory he seems to be floating around in this series of posts.

(This is probably because pie is scum and kaze likely-town.)

Skull's first wall post in #57 doesn't really do much, doesn't ask alot of probing questions, just doesn't tickle my fancy. not sure why there are townreads being dished out there?

Basically, this is Skull's towngame. Skull's post might not have done much, but read the tone behind it--it was town trying to do something, rather than scum fully aware they were doing nothing.

mastin how the hell did you townread us off one freakin' post holy shit? that's a cause for concern.

Because you're town? Like I said. I'm reasonably certain this is your towngame, and that your entrance was town. One post, ten posts, doesn't matter.

[mastin2]

This paragraph about sangres is a lot of words that don't say very much. But suffice to say I don't agree, not to mention I don't think Nacho is even here yet? Also, would it be scummy if they didn't sound like a combination between themselves? I mean, yes, if Nacho was posting and ffery wasn't I would probably vote them, but in a void.

It did say a lot. It doesn't matter that Nacho's not here, yet. People in hydra tend to pick up trends of their partners, often without realizing it. (I often do so intentionally, though. I became a MUCH stronger player when I intentionally faked being Nacho, and became more like him as an eventual result. ) sangres is not ffery, despite ffery being the one doing the posting. It's sangres, which is ffery plus Nacho. And I said that they were sounding like a combo of their town selves--not a combo of their scum selves. (Granted, have never seen ffery's scum self.)

Okay but

what about it looked like scum buddying town

and how does that make Aegor's alignment dependent on mine

Well, Aegor's posting didn't look like scum-buddying-town, and yours did. If Aegor was buddying, it'd have been scum-buddying-scum, and if so, then you couldn't be scum-buddying-town and your posting didn't look like scum-buddying-scum. I said this already. As for why...just general feeling of your interaction with him? Like, when I see your posting towards him...I don't see a town player naturally vibing with another town player. I see what looks to be scum manipulating.

pieguy still not town

Indeed. Though that post is admittedly a much better display, it is still not his town self. Not even close.

Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy notttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

Gonna steal zMuff's train of thought on me, but turned around. There's a fundamental difference in how pie approaches the game as town and as scum, and how his tone comes across as town and as scum. Pie's a lot like me in that regard. And I'm telling you that this is not the town pie I am familiar with. His posts are not analytical; they're a faking of analysis. They're not meant to find scum; they're meant to lynch town and manipulate town. Even without meta (seriously, look his town games up), that'd be a player I'd be suspicious-as-hell of. With it, a sealed deal. Pie is scum. His posting's forced, his emotions are largely faked, and all-in-all, his posts just don't have the same heart as the town-him.

You keep insisting your reads are open to change but you also keep stating these reads that aren't going to change, some of which have minimal basis.

Yeah? They're not mutually exclusive. My reads can change, have changed, and will continue to evolve. My reads fit the evidence, not the other way around. That doesn't mean they're going to always change, though, because the evidence sometimes doesn't change.

And... you call what he's done so far good analysis?

Yep!

Town:

AFB
Skullduggery
Cabd
Orcinus
Brian Skies
MacMollie*

Maybe Town:

Metal Sonic
Cephrir*
Kaze
Varsoon
Mastin2*

Null:

MafiaSSK
zmuffin*
pieguyn
Kagami – might move her down because she's pretty damn inactive looking

Maybe Scum:

Aegor
Venmar
Flandre Scarlett

* reads I particularly want to discuss with Nacho

I'm working through my null pile to see if I can move some of them up or down.

This is not a seriatim list.

I actually quite like your townreads and maybe-scumreads. (I don't think Aegor's scum anymore, though.) But your null/maybe town lists could use some adjustment. MafiaSSK is town. Trust me on that one. zMuffinman is also town; this is not his scum game. Pie

is

scum, and Kagami basically sure as hell isn't. Also, Cephrir/MS should be at least one rung down.

[mastin2]

Why don't you bother to read scumgames of people whose scumgames you're unfamiliar with?

Two factors, basically. First being laziness, the second being that I question the usefulness of doing so in the first place--second-hand meta is no substitute for first-hand experience.

I think mastin is town. I'm quite sure this isn't his scum play.

While I appreciate the vote of confidence...why? I mean, I can understand some other players townreading me, but you're not among the ones I'd expect. My memory of you is that quite frankly, it took a ton of my power to make you stop scumreading me last time.

Orcinus becomes more town on page 21, by the way.

In regards to my last post not feeling genuine- (not really looking for sympathy, just explaining)- I'm trying to mask my playstyle (PL the metadodger) as well as get a feel for where I fit into the machine.

(By the way, basically the only reason I haven't figured out who you are is that I've put zero effort into trying. Your posting's really damn familiar, and that means your style even on an alt is shining through and I remembered it. I'm just not bothering to figure out why. )

Cephrir's 576 is horribad, by the way.

I don't know how I feel about this development.

Well, regardless of pie's alignment, you're scum. Pie's probably a scum bodyguard*, but not certainly so. However, even though I'm reasonably certain his claim's fake, it's not something I'm lynching today.

(*No, not really a scum bodyguard, as interesting a role as that'd be. Pie is likely scum fakeclaiming bodyguard.)

...I don't even pieguy. I don't fucking even.

If pie's town, Cabd might be scum.

Agree. And the outburst/claim comes off kinda townish to me.

Not to me, but I'm letting it pass for the time being.

Gotta sheep Kaze
VOTE: Pieguy
I don't think Pie's the kinda guy to fake-claim, but Pie has a tell that I'm relying on and right now it has me pinging scum there.
Too sick to sleep. God this sucks.

Regardless of pie's alignment, this is town. This is not scum bussing; this is not scum jumping onto a wagon on a PR. This is town, through-and-through.

Well that pretty much confirmed pie's slot as town, as much as I hate alignment-indicative replace outs.

I see it as genuine and not faked, but that doesn't equate to town. I'm treating the act as a null-tell because the wording was, well...it felt like it could have been talking about a scum PM filtered through an attempt to have a town PM, if that makes sense.

Vote on mastin pending votecount. I agree with Cabd re: the replace out.

Yep. This slot's scum.

I'll probably end up being the only one who thinks Pie is still scum cause her post wasn't town bitching it was her as a player in general bitching. You people are gullible and ate it up for whatever reason, failing to realize it wasn't exclusively from a town perspective at all, but "omg pie threatened to leave the game SHE IS SO FUCKING TOWN HOLY SHIT AMIRITE". Whenever a player throws an AtE tantrum, tries to replace out, but then stays when people tell them to stay, they should either not fucking play this game again or they are just scum. The last time i've seen a player do this THEY WERE FUCKING SCUM.

(For the record, I do lean town on Venmar.)

[5] mastin2 (Cephrir, pieguyn, Cabd, Metal Sonic, Varsoon)

Ceph's scum, Metal Sonic's *probably* scum, and pie/Cabd will be sorted out. Varsoon's town, though.

yeah i just got hard ignored.

I've been scumreading you, but your last few posts have had more of a town feel to them.

I don't think they do =(

It is worth noting, though, that I don't see ahypothetical scum neighbor benefiting from going after their neighbors... that would make them look worse once said hypothetical neighbors flipped town.

Yeah, you're scum.


Oh god. I just realized something--
I'm nearly impossible to lynch as scum, except when it comes to the players who know me well and have that high accuracy at reading me...and even then, they often have trouble. This extends to my mislynch rate as well, with my death via rope being quite uncommon.

Scum also tend to have a healthy respect for me, causing me to get nightkilled early-on a fair amount of the time. And it gets better--often, people sheep me quite easily, despite me giving little to no reasoning behind my pushes. Additionally, when I *do* give logic, it is typically crazy. (Plus, I say some pretty insane shit.)

But to top it all off? I also have a fondness for VCA, and of stubbornly pushing things. Yet it gets even better. I get the impression that in my town games, increasingly, I'm either amazingly right or amazingly wrong.



...I think I'm turning into DGB.

VOTE: Cephrir.

[mastin2]

I need some time to cool down, which means I'm ironically enough prod-dodging until I can think in a more level-headed rational function. I'll begin reading at page 32 and get caught up as soon as I'm back into a healthy mindset for playing. (Trust me, I'm not in one right now.)

[mastin2]

Apologies for the delay. Certain parties are aware of why. (Let's just say that yesterday, I was planning on prod-dodging and focusing on something, but that circumstances made that no longer necessary yet made me emotionally compromised enough where I ironically prod-dodged

anyway

. Deep breaths of fresh air later, and I think I should be okay.)

butz

Are not as good as butts.

If you misread someone on meta, you meta'd them incorrectly.

(SO damn true. >_<)

Mastin is ridiculously town and not to be lynched ever this game, dear god.

While true, what the hell in that post made you declare that? There was literally nothing in 773 that I wouldn't also post as scum.

Dammit now this town is split into a pro-pieguy lynch camp and pro-mastin lynch camp

Help pls we need to sort this out(this is to everyone by the way)

If Metal Sonic is scum (he is), then pie's town.

Pieguy is the one who claimed Bodyguard? Then no. We should be lynching Cephrir, Flandre, Kaze.

I'll need the Kaze read explained.

Also why Flandre? For lurking?

Might be relevant.

Everything Flandre does reads overly cautious.

Playing devil's advocate, that can be attributed to them being an alt and wanting to protect their identity. But as you can tell by me saying this is advocating for the devil, I happen to be in agreement anyway. Basically, their entire posting comes across as being insincere. Artificial as well (though that could be alt-protection), cautious certainly, but the main issue I have with it is that even through the filter of an alt, I'd expect basically any player to come across as being sincere; I saw none.

Oh right, zMuffin is still hillariously scum. Anyone want to quicklynch that?

I know zMuff. This isn't his scum-play. I realize that often-times, my scumdar could use calibration. I realize that as of late, I haven't generally been able to lock onto these known reads instantaneously. So in theory it would be possible for me to be fallible when it comes to my zMuf read. But I'm not. He is town. I can tell.

K so MS is still probably just a dummy.

While I don't exactly see Metal Sonic as the, ah, brightest bulb in a batch, I also don't see him as the dimmest, either, AP. (May or may not be AP, but doesn't matter; I said it before--the hydra's effectively just AP even when BRO's posting because BRO BECOMES the guy he's hydraing with. ) To translate--no, not a dummy. If you think he's a dummy, that means he's scum.

Also, Varsoon is hilariously town.

The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes.

Helpful hint: fuck the later game; pay attention to the earlier game from me. As scum I get stronger; as town I get weaker. It's happened in literally every damn game I've been in ever. (Even though I say otherwise, not even Anything Goes was entirely immune--I dropped mid-game to bounce back endgame.)

None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

Then you suck at reading, since the intent's basically painted out clear as day.

That MafiaSSK has managed to lurk this much is distressing. I am awaiting a kick-ass post after the prod.

You will be disappointed, unless your idea of a kick-ass post is something that is obviously town, but only subtly so. SSK is not a high-key player of many words. Reading him requires the finer details.

(By the way, still think Aegor is town.)

If I'm correctly reading some of the hints that people have dropped, it sounds like there might be at least three separate Neighborhoods in this game.

If there are three neighborhoods in this Large game, I'm suing bork for copyright infringement.



(No, but seriously. I'm treating the neighborhoods as a non-entity in this game. One neighborhood with three in it? Likely has one scum, no more nor less. Multiple neighborhoods in the same game? Are likely randomly or at least semi-randomly generated. Thus, are not alignment-indicative. Thus, we should base reads on the players not on setup spec, but on the players themselves. Which still points to Metal Sonic being scum anyway. )

My impression is that mastin is a hopeless egotist who is town.

Egotist, yes, but not hopelessly so.

(I'll read AP's Kaze case in more detail later.)

Town players: Brian, MacMollie, Kagami, Aegor, Venmar
Still town, just a little less so: mastin2, sangres, orcinus, Skull, ActionDan

Holy hell, your reads are nearly identical to mine. Which is either a really good sign or a really bad one. (Good.)

But to help on the 'meh'--AP, I know SSK, and probably know him better than I know zMuf. He's town this game. Admittedly, this is something which requires familiarity with his game, but to put it simply, yes, there is a fundamental difference between his scum mindset and his town mindset that is apparent in his posting quite easily. You just need to be paying attention, and then he transforms into a player who is transparent-as-fuck.

Varsoon is probably town; this feels like a town him. Metal Sonic is probably scum, for the same reason.

(Cabd is also a 'meh' to me, so no help there, unfortunately.)

Why do you have Aegor so town?

Because Aegor's posting looks town-as-hell?

FWIW, I have MafiaSSK on the scummy side of null after reading his ISO

Fuck that.

AP, I'm delivering an ultimatum: Scumread me, or don't scumread SSK and/or zMuff. Failure to comply will result in a scumread on you from me.

If you don't trust me to be town, that's fine. If you don't trust me on my strongest of strong townreads, that isn't.

(Also, Venmar is probably town.)

/37. I'll do the remaining pages next post, probably.

[mastin2]

Helpful hint: fuck the later game; pay attention to the earlier game from me. As scum I get stronger; as town I get weaker.

(Actually, it'd be more accurate to say that it's a sine function, and either a negative sine or a cosine function for the other. Which is which depends from month to month and year to year. In previous years, my towngame got stronger and scumgame got weaker. That's since changed. And is likely to change back within a year or two. Cyclic process and all that.)

[mastin2]

Ceph are you really making an effort to sort me? I can't tell. Your questions seem kind of shallow and perfunctory, and also kind of answered already in some cases.

(Hint: That's because he's scum. )

I thought he felt pretty unafraid to say what he wanted to say which is townie.

Pretty damn bad reason to be townreading me, since I learned long ago that a "fuck that" approach as scum would get me towntold for ages.

(Also, happy scumday, Cabd.)

If that's real you're kind of stupid

This is a scum reaction.

Eh. To think we would have had a wagon to analyze eventually. Ah, well. ._.

*Might* be scum, but easily could be town.

WHAT THE LITERAL FUCK IS THIS PAGE 14 WAGON ON MASTIN

Oh, you mean this little thing?

[7] mastin2 (Angry Frat Bros, Cephrir, pieguyn, Cabd, Kazekirimaru, Metal Sonic, orcinus_theoriginal)

My welcoming wagon, of course! A fair number of scum wanted to pay their respect to me!

Because lying to be an ic? Why would he lie? I dunno, reaction test I guess
To me that's a scum move

A reaction test you failed, by the way.

don't slander me

But can we Slandaar you?

No the IC claim is just fake. That's just bad.

VOTE: Muffin

You're town, but don't get caught up in this instinctive reaction like that.

Everyone list your top 4 and we wagon the highest count person?

I've got Cephrir and Metal Sonic (in that order) as top-two. Honestly, am still working on hashing out the rest. Flandre's a tentative third. Fourth, fuck if I know. I'm still figuring that out.

/caught up, but I largely skimmed. Let me know if I missed something.

[mastin2]

Also, I fell like town-mastin would want to interact with me more, why aren't you?

Well, if I had scumread you (and mutually so), and then you 'crumbed your role (and then me to you), then yes I would, but we're both townreading each other.

[mastin2]

Mastin why aren't you voting MS

Because my Cephrir scumread is stronger?

[mastin2]

Even Mastin is ignoring me.

I asked if I missed anything. What of yours did I miss?

(And, no, not know. Strongly suspect, though, yes; you're a fairly solid townread.)

[mastin2]

I wish I could point to concrete things, but its really just your overall attitude. I like where your emphasis has been; you feel like you are genuinely trying to convey opinions as you have them. You feel open. I guess compare to Anything Goes where everything you did felt more calculated.

Awesome. Now drop that dumb-ass zMuff scumread and we can synch up and go kill scum.

I'd like that Kagami wagon to happen right about now. Mhmm.

Might be receptive to this, by the way, 'cause I feel like it.

(That said, I'm quite liking AP's points about Kaze.)

UNVOTE: ; VOTE: Metal Sonic
Uhhh, guys we need a lynch. This is one that we can both agree on.

I know I'm scumreading Metal Sonic. I know I

said

that I would be willing to move onto him. And if my vote is absolutely required, then I will. But eh. Town-MS, scum-MS, doesn't matter; I don't feel like being on his wagon. (Yes, yes, I know, that's gonna cost me towncred. If he's scum, for me not wanting to bus. If he's town, for me not wanting to be on his mislynch despite pushing him as scum. Don't give a damn; I just don't feel like being on the wagon.)

Soyeah, go ahead. But I kinda like the idea of keeping my vote on Cephrir, just for the hell of it. (Does make a stronger statement on my opinion of him, though.)

I suspect someone is looking for me too, given the interaction above; someone who is a very important character in the series.

I feel lonely. ;_; As far as I can tell, nobody's looking for me.

[mastin2]

This feels like a bus post because of the outright assumption that this lynch will go through.

That's not a bus-vote.

THIS is a bus-vote.

VOTE: Flandre Scarlett.

I want a claim.

[mastin2]

This game makes me sad.

Eh, to be honest, I liked your Metal Sonic wagon better than I liked the Flandre wagon. I was wagoning Flandre just for the heck of it. That said, though...Flandre's been remarkably absent in spite of the wagon on them. Also, while the speed of the wagon is concerning, how fast the wagon disintegrated is also noteworthy. Like, once it was up...people couldn't wait to find an excuse to get off, and were looking for anyone else to lynch.

And, yeah, technically this wagon was the counter-wagon to Metal Sonic. Noteworthy also is that the Metal Sonic wagon basically only was half the size. (I'd have to check the exact number of votes, since I think some people jumped on and then off before bork got a votecount up, meaning the wagon is larger than VCA would indicate, but not extremely so.)

It's possible (though not particularly probable) that both wagons were on scum. I don't think both wagons were on town, though. The dynamic just seems to weird for that.

VOTE: Cephrir.
Just 'cause I'm

also

looking for an excuse to get off Flandre 'cause I was explicitly casting a bus-vote.

[10] Flandre Scarlet (sangres, Cabd, Cephrir, Angry Frat Bros, ActionDan, Aegor, Varsoon, Kazekirimaru, Skullduggery, mastin2)

With Macmollie stating intent to hammer. (SSK was also fine with joining the wagon, but didn't, presumably thanks to its size.)

People I would be fine lynching:

Kaze
FS
Skull on a policy basis

MS and Kagami are basically interchangeable in that they are actively lurking hardcore. Would be willing to lynch either to avoid a no lynch.

Feeling increasingly iffy about Cephrir, whose questions are increasingly spurious and do not lead anywhere, much like Kaze's posts. Probably would be willing to lynch him too.

This slot is really damn town.

Mastin, your SSK townread is dubious. Like maybe he

is

town, but his posts are not really indicating that. Im still seeing him as 'meh' leaning towards 'hmm'.

Admittedly, his recent posting isn't quite as strong a showing as I would prefer. However, he's still town, whether you like it or not, so you're going to have to live with it.

[mastin2]

Yeah I don't see how any of that brought you to the conclusion of voting Cephrir...??

Because I don't feel like lynching them. The analysis of the wagons seems more important than actually being on the wagon. Cephrir's my default vote, since he's the guy I really want to lynch.

This game makes me sad.

Eh, to be honest, I liked your Metal Sonic wagon better than I liked the Flandre wagon. I was wagoning Flandre just for the heck of it. That said, though...Flandre's been remarkably absent in spite of the wagon on them. Also, while the speed of the wagon is concerning, how fast the wagon disintegrated is also noteworthy. Like, once it was up...people couldn't wait to find an excuse to get off, and were looking for anyone else to lynch.

Kind of like what you just did...?

Yes.

Explicitly

so.

Just 'cause I'm

also

looking for an excuse to get off Flandre 'cause I was explicitly casting a bus-vote.

Can't get less subtle than that.

[mastin2]

VOTE: Kagami

Pure survivalism at this point.

Yep, probs-scum.

cabd, why did you stop the FS wagon?

'Cause he's probs-scumbuddy.

Why shift your attention to Cephrir when you sound confident that there's Scum in MS/Flandre?

'Cause I have a daycop guilty on Cephrir, of course!

Because I don't feel like lynching them.

Even though you think one or both of them are Scum?

Yep, but I feel like voting Cephrir. (Scumread's stronger.) Sometimes, I can be a really stubborn ass about this kind of thing.

when pressured he tends to just write said pressure off in one way or another, either by ignoring it and acting like it never happened or not taking it seriously and expecting it to go away. basically there's this pattern of trying to discredit anyone who scumreads him (me, Cephrir, Cabd) which i associate with scum behavior.

(

Psst. These are all signs of a town-Mastin. But you didn't hear it from me. Honest.

* )

*No, but seriously, they are. Yeah, I've basically invalidated it all since *I'm* the guy saying it, but, well, it's true. The things you're listing, with a great degree of probability, are likely the exact reason people are townreading me.


Side-note. I'm basically horribly wrong on most of my scumreads (quite likely), or the scum this game are bussing, since literally every damn player I've got suspicion on thinks another player I have suspicion on is scum. >_<

[mastin2]

Ffery, convince me that you didn't bus Flandre to shit. K thanks.

I'm surprised nobody's asking me the same. I explicitly said I was casting a bus-vote, and was absent from the second wagon.

But eh, issue for later, I guess.

Vote: Kagami.

[mastin2]

Also why the hell did Varsoon die. I was sort of expecting Sangres or maybe Dan.

This does support pie-town, at the least. Generally, scum not killing obvious targets means they fear protection.

[mastin2]

Btw, both Cabd and Metal Sonic are incredibly likely scum.

[mastin2]

Btw, both Cabd and Metal Sonic are incredibly likely scum.

Why

Aside from my scumreads on both?

Varsoon's scumreads on both, plus both having that familiarity with Varsoon. Few if any knew Varsoon better than Metal Sonic, and Cabd likely knew him, too. There might be others who'd kill him (thinking of those creamed by a town-him, like in Antihero, but off the top of my head, the only person is AP who's a townread), but those two are the most likely.

[mastin2]

(Yes, AP, I typed that before your post. )

Also, it's not that both are scum. Both

could

be scum. It's

possible

neither are, too. (Just not particularly probable.) It's just that, individually, they're the two players most likely to be responsible for the kill.

[mastin2]

anyway, in that case, what kind of reaction should i look for from a scum-mastin? and how can i tell you're not scum faking your town behavior?

Scum-Mastin is actually manipulative? Scum-Mastin actually fakes my town behavior? Scum-Mastin lacks the charm of the town-me? Scum-Mastin actually has an artificial feeling? Not sure I can actually answer that.

i really don't like the wagon composition after mastin but eh

That's a good point, but I kinda assumed that the scum thought Kagami was going down in flames and was caught.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

This is going to be one of

those

games. The ones where I get apathetic, follow along, get reads, but am largely wrong, yet still get nightkilled all the same because I maintain

just

enough towncred to not be lynched, am JUST enough of a threat not to be kept around (rather, because the scum fear the me-that-could-be rather than the me-that-is), and yet I've sucked enough not to get protection. Ultimately meaning I give nothing useful to the town before my demise. I'll see what I can do to break that, but I just have that feeling that's what's going to happen. Sorry.

I get why you think its town, but. its. not. town.

Look at the

motivation

. There is no scumhunting, there is no effort to solve the game, there is no.

Passion

. The defense reads a little town, I'll give you that, but look at the big picture. What is Kagami doing that looks town other than that? The soft defense of Flandre, lumped in with other lurkers was scum plain and simple. Town doesn't lump all the lurkers together and call them policy lynches in a negative way. That is what

I

would do if I were protecting a buddy subtly . It is manipulative scumplay and hraahhhh you have been manipulated. I'm here for you though Nacho to guide you to the light . Kagami's focus on her ROLE and nothing else is from scum. It shows that where her attention is, is, well, forced. If it fit into the bigger picture of trying to find scum it would make sense, but. it. does. not. This is a desperation attempt to look town and it is not working. the vote on us is posturing, the wagon analysis was superficial. You are being manipulated by scum.

Daaaaaaaang, this is a good impression of me.

Scum mastin would have been lynched by now?

Nah. Scum-Mastin you lynch on Day Four. (I think that's actually the average lifespan of scum-me, actually.)

Ceph is a scum-lean

Ceph's been a scumread of mine, but that's faded. (Well...everything's faded 'cept for a few. ) I need to have a rethink, and analyze things again. I'm mostly a blank slate right now.

Varsoon was killed by someone who plays with him enough, or is observant of meta enough, that they knew he could never be mislynched by a competent town team.

Honestly, probably an SK, though.

Also, chances of a scum ninja?

Possible. I'm also considering that the scum flat-out nightkilled pie. (Everyone here already knows that *I* would. Not only for the bodyguard claim, but also because it's pie. Who I respect.) Sadly, it's only me considering it, because who else here even remotely has that same train of thought? Pie-kill N1 is a scuMastin modus operandi, but I'm thinking who else it could possible be an MO of.

[10] Kagami (Angry Frat Bros, Venmar, mastin2, Metal Sonic, Cephrir, Kazekirimaru, macmollie, pieguyn, Aegor, ActionDan)

Half-hearted analysis, but pie's town, Dan's town, and AFB is likely town. Venmar's a decently-solid townread. I had a townread on Aegor, but need to look back on that. Metal Sonic, Cephrir, and to some extent Kaze/mollie are figures of interest.

Vote: Kaze

.
But note the tags.

[mastin2]

Mastin, how caught up are you?

Depends on your definition of 'caught up'.

Have read every post? Yes. (Okay, skimmed.)

Have my head in the mindset of the current game? Not so much.

[mastin2]

Have to say, though, I feel a little left out in general. No fancy role tying me to another player (as far as I know), and no neighborhood. (despite there being eight confirmed and potentially more players beyond that.) Like...I kinda get the impression that everything important happening this game is happening entirely without my knowledge.

[mastin2]

It could be a vantage point thing. But goddamn I'd like your perspective on Metal Sonic's "three neighborhoods" comment, and on MafiaSSK's apparent lack of crumb on day 2 given he's saying he investigated me/Nacho on night 1. Cabd listed him as one of the players who targeted me/nacho on night 1 so the visit is not up for debate.

I commented on both?

Like, I don't see SSK as scum in spite of the potentially-incriminating result, and I believe Cabd said that looking at SSK's iso made it plausible for him to be town with that result. Metal Sonic is in fact among my main suspicions, and I easily can vote there.

[mastin2]

Do you have anyone as a potential SK?

Nope! Not a damn clue. Don't know, don't particularly care, either. The SK's clearly not someone who'd be wise to leash (both sources of kills have been tremendously anti-town), so they're basically an extra scumbag, just one without interactive tells. I'll scumhunt and maybe catch them, but I'm not going to discriminate and hunt specifically for them.

Okay, so, as far as I'm concerned the lynch today is between Dan and SSK - the two unconfirmed who targeted sangres the other night

VOTE: Kazekirimaru.
Not exactly sure how, but...SSK is town. Dan's obviously town, too. Kaze isn't.

SSK being town requires the nightkill to have disappeared some other way. Do we think there's another protective role, or a roleblocker or something? I feel like if it was a roleblock we'd know it by now.
Definitely would like some more insight on why we would lynch Metal Sonic today. I guess a possible neighborhood slip might have nailed Flandre, but that would require that there be three neighborhoods ALL of which contain a scum?

Yep, you're scum. (Metal Sonic is, too.)

I feel compelled to point out that the top of 2030 sounds like a very preemptive explanation of why you're still going to be alive on day umpteen.

Uh...it was quite explicitly the opposite?

[mastin2]

Not exactly sure how, but...SSK is town.

?

Exactly that?

I don't give a damn what the role evidence says. I'm sticking by that judgment. This feels wrong. Everyone's interactions with him.

So... you were changing your mind, and that one literally completely innocuous post changes your mind back to lolcephisscumfornoreasonimwillingtoexplain?

Yep!

Makes me think one of mastin and kaze is a serial killer

Kaze, sure, but I play SSK so that I can

plausibly

claim vig. My kills still serve a serial killer agenda. I'm killing threats to me. But I'm not going to kill a player that I myself consider obvtown (and generally, not a player the town feels is obvtown even if I feel they aren't), specifically so that I can claim vig with truthful targets if I need to. (Also, as a serial killer, I would be far more prone to taking the stance of leashing serial killers. )

VOTE: Metal Sonic.

Kaze: SSK can potentially be town because we don't know how pie's role worked.

By the way, you guys are all idiots. Especially those who've played in Gundam, who know EXACTLY how a 1x BP works. And especially ESPECIALLY those who know action resolution. The BP is a passive ability--it activates when pie would die, protecting him from death once, no matter the timing of the attempted kill. The BG an active ability. It allows pie to protect someone from death, but having him be shot in their place. Thus, pie could have been shot at either night OR successfully protected either night. It could be one than the other, or the other and then the one. Pie shot, Pie shot. Pie protect, pie protect. Pie shot, pie protect. Pie protect, pie shot. None of these are any more nor less likely than one another. All are viable, because all are within the boundaries of the role.

oh hell no mastina you are always banging on about how leashing the sk is always good for town

*points to nightkills*

Yeaaaaaaah, no. On N1, Varsoon, and either pie or sangres were killed. On N2, Cabd and either pie or pie's target were killed. IF. If the serial killer's kills were plausibly "good". They could be leashed. But None of the N1 kill options are remotely like that. None of the N2 kills (aside from the incredibly-unlikely pie-protected-vigbait) are even remotely like that. The serial killer has made it clear that they're killing town. Intentionally. If they killed town accidentally, sure. Mercy. If they killed scum, sure. Mercy. But they didn't. They aimed for either obvtown players or conftown players. They're scum. Just scum that doesn't have scumbuddies.

If the serial killer changed their tune suddenly tonight, maybe.

Maybe

I'd give mercy. Assuming the change was legitimate, and that they've honestly changed their tune to that alternative rhythm. But if they continue to kill like they have? Or even have the intention of continuing to kill like they have? (Thus the maybe, rather than definitely.) Hell no, they don't get the leash. Because they're not willing to BE leashed. Yes, I advocate leashing serial killers. Yes, I think it good strategy. Yes, I normally would support it. But not THIS serial killer. Because THIS serial killer is clearly of the opinion that they are not to be leashed. We're not dealing with a rabid dog to be tamed. That, I'd support. We're dealing with a wolf, who's

hunting

humans. That, I cannot.

Which means that you think ActionDan tried to kill Sangres on Night 1, right? Why is ActionDan-Scum more plausible than SSK-Scum in your eyes?

No. In fact, I scumread Kaze for pulling this exact stunt. (And to some extent, Cephrir, too.)

Then who burned up Pieguy's Bulletproof on Night 1? It had to be either SSK or ActionDan. (I'll only entertain the possibility of Ninjas and Strongmen and the like if SSK flips Town.)

Or pie got killed N1. As I said, that's my MO as scum. It could be someone else's MO, here, too. I just don't know whose.

Do you think it's possible that SSK is going out of his way to replicate his Town play to fool you since you seem to be skilled at reading him?

Possible, but not probable. Honestly, the player more likely to be guilty of this is zMuffin.

[mastin2]

Also, I can't help but noticing a lack of deaths of those in the neighborhood. This very well could have meaning, but heck if I know on what.

[mastin2]

Please explain why we should collectively ignore evidence in favor of your nebulous and ill-supported "judgments" and "feelings."

...Because I said so?

While I am indifferent about "leashing" the hypothetical SK (I am not sure I even know what that means), that reasoning makes no sense. If the SK killed Cabd, then you are correct. If the SK targeted pie, then you are still correct. But if the SK targeted someone guarded by pie, then you are not necessarily correct. There is a suppressed premise in your argument that pie would target someone who is obvtown. And yet pie may have targeted someone he felt was town and the SK targeted that same person thinking he was scum.

Yet we

do

know the N1 target of pie was sangres. Pie's actions on N2 may not be known, but it's a probability that he'd protect someone widely or even universally townread, like sangres. Thus, my comment: outside the incredible improbability of pie-protecting-vig-bait, the serial killer killed town, KNOWING they were killing town. Yes, it's possible that pie protected, saaaaaaaay, Metal Sonic. But it's such a damn unlikely scenario it's practically impossible. The serial killer has been aiming for town. Period.

[mastin2]

Hi mastina is pinging all my scum radars please lynch him and if he isn't scum I'll buy you all a drink

Please do not invoke 'mastina' and then immediately use a male-gendered pronoun to refer to me.

I'll do a full ISO just to confirm my read, man my eyes are gonna bleed
But if I confirm his alignment as scum after my ISO then yeah my bet is on

Just iso'd Mastin.

...Nope, not scum. Bet's totally on.

[mastin2]

see no no no, I am pretty sure metal is oblivious to you coming out as a lesbian trapped in a man's body so would not know to use she.

Thus why I asked.

ap and I are both calling you mastina and lets face it the nick is catchy!

It is!

you are shifting your votes around and not

quite

following your scum meta.

Well, that'd be because I'm not scum.

[mastin2]

Actually, I don't feel bad about it at all. From my point of view, it's pretty obvious that either you or SSK tried to kill Sangres on Night 1, and it seems extremely unlikely that it was you. If Mastin is going to assert SSK's innocence, that means she's going to have to make a dang good argument that it was you instead.

Which means that you think ActionDan tried to kill Sangres on Night 1, right? Why is ActionDan-Scum more plausible than SSK-Scum in your eyes?

No. In fact, I scumread Kaze for pulling this exact stunt. (And to some extent, Cephrir, too.)

You don't seem too willing to analyze Cabd's Night 1 actions too closely. Why is that? It's difficult to ignore something so incriminating.

Then who burned up Pieguy's Bulletproof on Night 1? It had to be either SSK or ActionDan. (I'll only entertain the possibility of Ninjas and Strongmen and the like if SSK flips Town.)

Or pie got killed N1. As I said, that's my MO as scum. It could be someone else's MO, here, too. I just don't know whose.

Considering everything that happened on Day 1 (Pieguy's Bodyguard claim, ActionDan's attempts to find Rubedo, Sangres' overall strong play, etc.), I cannot fathom the Scum team viewing Pieguy as a bigger kill priority than Sangres. (I suppose it's possible, but just not very probable.)

Fuck this, I refuse to believe that a town-Skull would be this dense and would be intentionally breaking up my point as to weaken it, when my stance is crystal-clear.

I don't know how. Ninja. Strongman. Kill on pie rather than on sangres. Hell, redirector. (Yes, I'm going there.) But SSK is town. And those pushing him as confscum are bad.

Mainly because I've been kicking around that idea.

Yeah, fuck that, you're also a scumbag.

You can call me groupscum all you'd like; I fit as groupscum like, ridiculously well, between my "cheeky" bus-vote on Flandre (and later removal of it and never going back on), a nightkill on pie fitting my MO, my white knighting of SSK, and probably dozens of other things that could be used to justify me being scum. But not a chance in hell am I the serial killer and any town player who's even REMOTELY familiar with me damn-well KNOWS it.

As an aside, thinking Aegor's town again.

Also, Gooner's ridiculously town, soyeah. Never lynching that.

VOTE: MafiaSSK

L-1

THIS WAGON IS BAD,

AND YOU SHOULD ALL FEEL BAD.

(Except the scum, who are laughing their asses off.)

[mastin2]

[7] MafiaSSK (Skullduggery, ActionDan, Gooner, sangres, zMuffinMan, Cephrir, Aegor)
With Kaze wanting to hammer.

Seriously, this is a god-awful wagon.

[mastin2]

Skull is scum.
Cephrir is scum.
Kaze is scum.

Seriously. Not that hard.

Dan's town. Sangres is town. Gooner's town. Aegor's probably (but not certainly) town. Butyeah. This. is not. a good wagon.

It's wrong.

It's not right. It's too easy. It's too fast. It's too convenient.

Not a chance in hell that this is a wagon on scum. It's a wagon driven BY scum, and you should be ashamed that you're falling for it. You're lynching a god-damned PR for the scum.

[mastin2]

mastin, if you are going to howl about MafiaSSK being obvious town, you have to justify the watch results and lack of kill.

Cause it looks fairly incriminating.

FUCK WHAT THE RESULTS SAY. FUCK IT BEING INCRIMINATING. This is

wrong

. The people on the wagon are jumping on it blindly. They're not thinking. They're not analyzing. They're blindly hopping onto it without a care. They're not stopping to think, and feel what the wagon is actually like.

It's a damn scum-driven wagon. There are at least a third of a dozen number of possible explanations in which SSK is town. Ninja, strongman, pie kill, redirector. I don't know which happened. But I know that any of them are possibilities. Perhaps some are not probabilities, but this. is. NOT. a. good. wagon. Period. It's rushed. It's forced. It's being done without hesitation, without a second thought, because anyone who DOES give it would be thinking the exact damn same things that I am.

[mastin2]

I'm almost beginning to believe that SSK is somehow town exclusively because mastinscum is so upset about it and wants the townred so badly, and for absolutely zero other reason.

IF YOU WERE EVEN REMOTELY TOWN, YOU WOULD BACK THIS DAMN STATEMENT WITH A VOTE.

C'mon. You were voting me earlier. Why not move it back, here and now?

Oh, that's right.

BECAUSE YOU'RE SCUM TAKING A FREE MISLYNCH.

[mastin2]

Where did the missing kill go?

As I said, I don't know for sure. It could be a ninja-kill. It could be that the scum flat-out killed pie N1. This is one of the bigger ones in particular, since I've flat-out told you guys that a scum-me would do precisely that and kill pie. If you have even a shadow of a thought of me being scum, that should be giving you pause for thought, if maybe I'm scum flat-out telling you what I did. (Which I

do

do as scum!) Which would make SSK town. (Aside from zMuff's insane theory of SSK being a scum-tracker.)

And even if you 100% believe me to be town, then you should still be listening to that. And not ignoring my judgment on SSK. I can't tell who else here would kill pie. It would probably be someone who respects pie nearly as much as I do, and/or (probably "and") someone who wants to take out claimed PRs/claimed protective PRs regardless of their role. I can't tell who else here is like that.

Like, I've got ideas. Kaze in particular. zMuff as another. AFB as one who's theoretically possible (even though I think it impossible), albeit improbable. (Kagami woulda been another.) Dan as a theoretical other, even though he's town. Basically, anyone who sees pie as a strong player would see him as an appetizing nightkill, because it's basically a free nightkill as far as they're concerned--nobody would second-guess the reason pie died. They'd all assume it was because of his role, rather than because of him being him.

I don't know for sure who has this kind of mindset. I'm basically just describing my own. But I know that it's at least possible, if not probable. Combine that with my strong feeling of this being SSK's towngame, and that's MORE than enough to give pause to this wagon.

[mastin2]

Watcher does imply ninja possibly. Maybe a nerfed ninja.

Among my thoughts precisely. In particular, it's fully possible for a mafia JOAT to have ninja/strongman as two of their abilities. (See also: Anything Goes.)

[mastin2]

plz explain the bit about SSK's towngame in terms I can relate to.

I wish I could. It's, like. Basically. Magic. SSK's posting as scum carries a distinctly-different feeling, tone, and frequency from his town-games. He has an entirely-different mindset. I can't remember his scumgames that I've read, but I remember his towngames. His thought process here is dead-in-line with games like Theatre, Touhou, and others. Regardless of alignment, he'll lurk, of course. But...well. This is off of memory (so it might not be precisely right), but a scum-SSK gives the town nothing to work off of, whereas a town-SSK doesn't give a damn, posts what he likes, and as a result, does give some good content. Said content is not as obvious as other players, but there if you look.

Try...I guess. Try reading his posts and imagining those same posts with a lot more words in them to say the same things. Try imagining the thought process behind those words as scum and as town. Try expanding his content out, beyond the literal words and into the subtext present, and see if that helps. I'd be lying if I said SSK was 100% town. But he's a solid 93%.

[mastin2]

where did that happen in this game

Most of his posting?

You realize your vote is still on MS, right?

Yeah?

Uhh...how does this make you town?

It doesn't. It makes me scum. (Geez, guys. I've made a better case for me being scum than everyone else combined, and I did it in less than five minutes. Slackers. ) It also makes SSK town.

Mastin, it fails for me right there at mindset. I felt like the "I'll always investigate ffery" comment was meant to mollify me. He's talking about a ffery/nacho hydra and he's worried about

me

slipping past town?

...Yeah? I mean. You seem to think that this is strange. It's actually pretty damn solid play. Like, I'd have tracked AFB despite the fact that they were a realistic nightkill, just to get a better read on them. I can totally see SSK investigating you, not so much as a second thinking about you being nightkilled.

You've also admitted that your Town-read of SSK is based on personal experience, meta, gut, and other factors that can't be quantified. You're a well-respected player and your words do carry a lot of weight, but is it reasonable for you to expect us to believe your word over the provable actions that have happened in the game -- especially when your alignment is still such a big question?

Yep! You should listen to that list of reasons I'm defending SSK. When it comes to read off of play versus read off of role...nine times out of ten, I'm going for the read off of play. If this were a cop guilty, I

might

lynch SSK, in spite of being a solid 80-90% sure the cop was lying. It isn't--it's much, MUCH weaker. There are many possible explanations.

Why is this such an unlikely possibility?

Because the entire reason for suspecting SSK is him being at sangres N1, and pie dieing N2 as a 1x-BP Bodyguard, and people making the logical deduction that pie's BP was used N1 protecting sangres and that one of the others visiting sangres was killing. If that's not true, then there's no reason for SSK to be scum at all. Thinking he's scum-tracking-sangres is just, well, off.

Interestingly, super-thorough Mastin chose not to respond to this particular point.

Because I already did, elsewhere. No, I don't know which of the kills was performed by the serial killer. But I do know that N1, there were three targets and none of them were town-oriented kill targets. I know that N2, two of the three possible kill targets were not town-oriented kills, and the third is an unknown, which is still far, FAR more likely than not

still

not a town-oriented kill.

I wish someone would answer me, whats going on because i'm a lazy pig who kind of doesn't want to read so many pages.

The town's mislynching SSK, and people are making the hilariously-bad accusation that I'm THE SK.

I FELT REALLY GOOD ABOUT YOU ON D1 BUT D2 I COULDN'T FEEL YOUR PRESENCE IN THE GAME AT ALL AND TODAY YOU SEEM TO BE MISSING SOME BEATS!!!!

Know why here, on D3, I'm saying that the SSK wagon is filled with people who are asleep, not thinking things through? Guess why I described it that way?

'Cause that was me on D2. You couldn't feel my presence because there was no presence to be felt. As for today, there's nothing I can say that will answer. You either see me as town or don't. My beat isn't off; it's the rest of the town pushing SSK.

[mastin2]

Random thought: on day two, at least one person said that they thought Varsoon was not a mafia kill. I need to look back and see who said this and/or who agreed with it, since they have a significantly higher chance of being scum.

...Yeah? I mean. You seem to think that this is strange. It's actually pretty damn solid play. Like, I'd have tracked AFB despite the fact that they were a realistic nightkill, just to get a better read on them. I can totally see SSK investigating you, not so much as a second thinking about you being nightkilled.

That wasn't my point.

Then you're gonna have to tell me what was, since I just gave you a mindset, and you asked for a mindset.

Okay so why are people assuming the existance of a SK to begin with?

Because of two kills N2, neither of which remotely look like scumhunting.

(Quoting this as one more reason Skull's post was BS, by the way. )

[mastin2]

I swear, I am going to murder you all dead with my

super serial killer powers

scum factional nightkill

army of french knights for this.

[mastin2]

A thought occurred to me that perhaps one or both of the scum/SK actually legitimately believe SSK to be scum of the other kind, depending on how the night actions actually went N1.

Butyeah. SSK is flipping town. Guarantee it.

[mastin2]

I'm really not as engaged in this game as I'd like to be due to tons of back2back IRL things that are (hopefully) over.

UNVOTE: Skull; VOTE: MetalSonic

Because mastin is inside my head.

If I'm really inside your head, then why're you scumreading me? I'm good at manipulation and guessing what players think before they've thought it, but when I do, I target that specific player, and I'm not particularly competent with it when it comes to you. I can stall you from voting me, but I can't fool your read.

I don't know why I hate the above post so very much.

Because you're scum, and Skull is (or...at least, might be?) a scumbuddy who you're seeing their post as being more scummy than it actually is? There are

plenty

of Skull's posts to be suspicious of, but the one you have an issue with is utterly and entirely null; I can't see how anyone would have an issue with

that

particular post.

[mastin2]

I could really do without having all my posts quoted followed by a 'because you're scum'.

Well, you

were

, butyeah.

VOTE: mastin2.

It shooooooooooooooould be pretty dang obvious that I'm not groupscum, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut, a giant screw-you is in order to the serial killer, 'cause there's literally nobody else in the game other than me who I could even remotely see killing Cephrir. Like...I was the only one scumreading him. I was beginning to think that my inexplicable feeling of him being scum was wrong, and that everyone else not-scumreading him was right.

[mastin2]

As for reads. Like, I really don't know at this point.

ActionDan and sangres are basically conftown, but they're the only players I'm even remotely confident in.

There are elements in Aegor's posting that look like scum and elements that look like town.

AFB has been a major townread of mine all game, but...I'm beginning to have doubts on that, too. I KNOW. I shouldn't. I shouldn't be doubting them. But, well...I am. Nobody from their neighborhood has died, and I know that both AP and BROseidon are the type who would keep both Metal Sonic and Venmar alive to manipulate each other...ESPECIALLY if they were at each others' throats. (Which, last I knew, they are.) A lot of their thoughts have been good, but, well, they kinda lack the same wow-factor they had in Anything Goes. Plus, they're still alive, when by all rights, a competent scumteam in this playerlist would want them dead. Overall, still a townread, but...not as much of one as by all rights I should have.

Gooner's the closest I've got to a good townread. I don't know about Gooner's QT posting, but Gooner's analysis has been solid and incredibly pro-town. Brian Skies was also a strong townread, and I like basically everything to do with the slot. But even this is just a gut feeling. I don't have anything concrete backing it up, other than that Brian Skies looked like he was in a town mindset, and Gooner continued the trend even stronger.

Kaze's still a scumread of mine, because simply put, he's someone who feels like could be scum. More specifically, I kinda sorta feel like Kaze could be the serial killer this game. Especially given that his stance this game was that the serial killer would play never to get caught, especially given he said the serial killer would aim for town with dead scum and aim for scum with dead town, which is apparently exactly what happened. His posting overall doesn't feel town, but there's actually a lot of good things in there, and my memory is saying his interactions with the scum make him an unlikely buddy.

Mollie is a player I should be townreading. I really should be townreading her. But...I'm not. I don't know why I'm not. I just...kinda...don't feel anything with her. On the plus side, that also means I'm not feeling anything scum from her, either. But basically...she's a null. She shouldn't be a null. She really, REALLY shouldn't be a null, but. She is. And I can't shake that. I can't fake a read one way or the other on her. I can't force myself to make up my mind. I just...can't.

Metal Sonic's someone who should still be a scumread, and it's true--I've hated his contributions to the game, as they seem incredibly scummy. But, well. I'm not feeling it anymore. I don't know why I'm not. I just, don't feel like he's scum for some reason. Like, I've got the urge that he could be bad town or could be a serial killer, but isn't groupscum. I really don't know why.

Orc's a very mild townread, since that's basically what I feel like when reading his posts, but it's entirely gut.

Skull was MafiaSSK's second-claimed track target. On the one hand, he's not going to claim a result he couldn't back. On the other hand, him being scum going down, why would he truthfully claim a result on Skull that would clear Skull of being scum? Basically, it's fully possible for Skull to be scum, who SSK knew the result of and thus, could safely claim, in order to make Skull look better upon SSK's scumflip. But I dunno. That sounds awfully conspiracy-theorist-like to me. I mean, it fits what I know of SSK, but what I know of SSK is clearly shit considering his flip. On Skull's individual basis, Skull's someone who has posted a lot similarly to Aegor: lots suggesting town, but some suggesting he could be scum.
I really don't know.

Venmar's I guess a townread, but, well...other than tunneling Metal Sonic, I can't really recall him having done anything the entire game. I remember a town Venmar having more broad analysis, which went more in-depth than what I've seen this game. Basically, he's posted a lot of one-liners and such. There hasn't been any truly-extensive content from him that I can remember, and that's a concern of mine.

And zMuffinMan. I know I've been townreading him. I know that I've got a fairly good accuracy at reading him. But I'm doubting that, now. I thought yesterday that he could be intentionally mimicking what he understands is my understanding of his townplay. I thought that his insight looked too good to come from town. (Yes, I'm fully aware that's a fallacy! Of all players, I know what it's like better than anyone else to have insight into scum affairs that seem magical and couldn't-come-from-town yet did. Doesn't change how I still felt it, anyway!) Like...he could be scum, I guess. Especially since so many players I know, trust, and respect seem to have been suspicious of him, and I'm the only one who's really defended him. But, dammit. I don't want to doubt my read on him. I don't want him to be scum. I want to believe in myself, just a little bit, that I'm not an incompetent fool who doesn't know how to play the game at all.

It's like I said. I really don't know.

[mastin2]

You can trust us on that read and get voting Skull.

I do want to trust you, though. Soyeah, there's that, too.

SSK tracked us on N1, so therefore we weren't the scum NK target. That means that improbable as it sounds Varsoon was the NK target.

And that points to Skull.

Not that I disagree with Skull being scum, but you're ignoring the possibility of scum killing pie and the serial killer taking out Varsoon.

(Also, AP, pronoun trouble. She. SHE. Not he. Habits die hard, I know.)

I think the scum in our neighborhood are either Skull or Aegor.

I guess I do, and I also lean towards Skull.

her interactions with the Flandre wagon AND MafiaSSK in general would be going for broke if she IS scum.

(AP, you, uh...kinda should know better than this. Yes, I DO go for broke as scum. I'm not groupscum because of the Cephrir read, but if Cephrir had been town, you darn-well know I would do this as scum for Flandre and SSK.)

Is matin claiming scum? I cant even tell anymore.

Quite frankly, it'd take a cop innocent on me for me

not

to be scum. >_<

No joke. So dont even worry about this.

Alright.


At this point, I guess that my top candidates for scum would be Skull or Aegor,
And that my top candidates for serial killer would be (approximately most-least) Kaze, (the other of the two above), Metal Sonic, or Venmar.

But I don't know.

[mastin2]

(incidentally, this game is playing out very similar to xenogears so far)

Except that this time, I'm the girl in the dark rather than the one connecting all the dots. :/

[mastin2]

you are doing the exact same thing you did in chain of command, you are avoiding getting intimate with me like the fucking plague.

Uh, I got plenty-intimate with you in chain of command? My whole interaction with you on D1 was meant to 'bridge' the gap between us.

Is it really just skull/aegor? Aegor maf, skull sk?

Could very well be.

VOTE: Aegor.

[mastin2]

you have 5 hours to start interacting with me

Just took action, and it's inter. Happy?

[mastin2]

you most certainly did NOT get intimate with me in chain, you avoided the crap out of me and when you did respond the embrace was chilly same as here

Not by my memory?

Actually Skull SK makes little sense unless ninja. Ssk would have outed her on d3 for sure.

Derp, I knew that.

Still, could be scum. Whadda ya think of Aegor-SK, then? Or is Skull town and Aegor scum? Aegor town and Skull-scum?

[mastin2]

I STILL say muffina's incessant trolling is town the only thing that gives me pause is how he is playing up to sangres who are just gobbling it up. I am not entirely free of suspecting that danny and sangres are actually an sk faction or something I asked them about it in our neighborhood I need to go back and look at what they said but I think it was nacho who was reading danny as town but I am not sure how much I trust that danny is really really good at playing scum he isn't afraid to get cosy

Muffin's probably town, yes. Sangres-Dan being an SK pair still leaves the mystery of the N1/N2 kill dilemma, though.

[mastin2]

Townblock?: Sangres, Dan, Mollie
Probably not willing to touch today: mastin2, Metal Sonic, Venmar, orcinus, zMuffin* (is Skulls pressure here sudden; missing mafia kill last night relevant?)

The rest: Skull, Aegor, Gooner, Kaze* (need to review him again, I keep waffling, slight townlean?)

Move orc up and move Gooner way, WAY up. Then you've got a fairly decent starting point.

[mastin2]

Do you think Gooner could be a Serial Killer this game?

Theoretically? Sure. In reality? No, not really, I don't get that vibe at all. Gooner doesn't just send off not-mafia vibes; he sends off townvibes. Brian Skies did, too. Think about it for a sec, too. Brian Skies let himself be wagoned to L-1. Does that sound like a ballsy-SK move or a town-move? Definitely the latter to me.

[mastin2]

God damn it, that Cephrir ISO is going to make me suspicious of mastina.

Well, duh.

*I* would be suspicious of me if not for my role PM. I self-voted for a darn-good reason.

[mastin2]

Its not like he had a choice in the matter?

He kinda did?

How he reacted to things was largely, "Eh". Not as in, me looking back on it and thinking 'meh'. As in, he looked at the wagon on him and casually dismissed it. Like...he didn't even bother trying to dismount it. He let it be, even joining it. That doesn't sound like a serial killer, panicking. That doesn't sound like scum, panicking. Not even scum/SK who's calm and collected and cool as the method of dealing with it. It reads as relaxed town, who doesn't give a damn about the wagon on them.

[mastin2]

Yes but the fallacy in your reasoning is that relaxed=town and panicked=scum.

Which I address.

Not even scum/SK who's calm and collected and cool as the method of dealing with it.

It reads as relaxed town, who doesn't give a damn about the wagon on them.

Like, not relaxed scum, thinking that this is no big deal. Relaxed town.

[mastin2]

I don't care if he is group scum,blue scum,red scum, or sk.

I'm green-scum.


My vote's still on Aegor, last I checked.

[mastin2]

Right, so, there's another scum alive. If there wasn't, Aegor self-hammering (well, not, but thinking so) and claiming scum would be playing against his wincon. It's one thing to think you're in a no-win scenario; it's another to give up entirely and not fight back. I refuse to believe a scum-Aegor would do so, so he has to have a scumbuddy alive.

[mastin2]

Also, because he cut discussion short, it's likely someone who's under suspicion, but not one of our top candidates.

[mastin2]

Will probably support the Kaze wagon.

However, an important post I made was lost, where I basically said we need to make the day count. (Also, finish the massclaim.) And get everyone doing solid reads and such. I directed it to Skull, but it applies to everyone, myself included.

[mastin2]

Okay.

VOTE: Metal Sonic.

[mastin2]

Okay.

VOTE: Metal Sonic.

(Psst. This is me, rolling with what was obviously a reaction test.)

Unvote

.

[mastin2]

Gah. I've reached the sage in the game where I really should be able to shine. Really should be able to place the final nail in the coffin. With all the town players here and such. But I don't.

I think finishing the massclaim would be a good start, but that there's more to analyze.

If there was no protection/block, then the mafia likely killed Aegor. Aegor therefore had to have been a threat, and not rolecopped before the nightkill on him. (You, uh...don't nightkill a BP Serial Killer knowing they're BP. ) Additionally, the mafiate knowing the kill on Aegor failed would likely have suspicions, which makes it likely that the mafiate was on Aegor's wagon the day after Cephrir's death.

I keep on wondering about the relevance of the AP nightkill, too. I also need to run an Aegor iso to figure out which of Varsoon/pie/sangres he killed, 'cause that tells us who the mafia killed. For instance, if the mafia killed Varsoon, it's far more informative than if the mafia ninja-killed sangres. Pie's not a bad info-kill, either. (Actually, it's probable that Aegor ninja-killed sangres. But not a certainty; I need to make sure.) Cabd's an obvious nightkill, too, but again pie.

There's also the wagons/lynches, and isos on the dead scum to run.

I need to do all of that.
I'm...kinda feeling like doing none of them. Geh. Apathy.

[mastin2]

What the hell, mastin? We LYNCHED Aeogor yesterday. What's this about mafia killing him?

You got an explanation for there only being one nightkill the night Cephrir died, then? The options are roleblock (doubtful with jk), protect (doubtful with jk/bg), scum-no-kill, or scum-killing-BP. Aegor was BP-SK.

[mastin2]

Whoops. Misremembered Aegor's abilities.

[mastin2]

never lynching(100% townread): skull, mollie, sangre, muffin, orc, dan

unsure(non 100% townread): mastin, gooner, kaze venmar

With me as a townread.
Skull's looking town, yes, but not that town; I need an explanation, here.
Muffin I also want an explanation for.
Additionally, while I am townreading mollie, that townread has waned a bit, since I kinda feel like I remember town-Mollie having more...oomph? more rambling? More paranoia? More...stuff? than what she's got.

[mastin2]

plz don't be scum

I'm not. You're probs-not, either. ZMuff is debatable.

[mastin2]

O cool mastin is in this game!

That's debatable. My body's in the game, sure. Doesn't mean my mind is. :/

I'll jk kaze tonight

With that in mind:
I want focus to mainly be on {Muffin, Metal Sonic, Venmar} (with Venmar as the weakest), and with some focus on pidgey.

[mastin2]

Can we like just agree on a lynch and kill Metal Sonic already?

How okay are you with you dieing today and Metal tomorrow assuming a kill goes through and orc blocked Kaze?

[mastin2]

...except nobody is actually saying that?

Skull's actually right, by the way. My literal wording was asking exactly that. But if I meant it, I'd have backed it up with a vote. It was gathering information. And honestly, Venmar's reaction to it looks...well, looks bad.

all of mastin's recent posts are meh

Sure are! If it were just this game, you might be able to tell my alignment from it, but it's site-wide.

Basically, I'm largely apathetic. The game's basically a sure-fire town win; the only question is how rapidly that town win can be obtained. And it's had a deeply-negative effect on my motivation to play, here.

I think the lynch for today should be one of {Metal Sonic, Venmar}, but I'm not sure which.

[mastin2]

*sigh*

I really hate this.
Really, really do.

Vote: Metal Sonic.

I hate hammering. I hate voting players I don't really think are scum. I hate it. But I'm going to bed, now, and deadline's not until after I wake back up. And as much as I hate ending the day (especially when I don't think I'm ending the game), I need to make sure that we don't no-lynch, and I'm the only one I know for sure can do the deed in that time. :/

I do apologize. Especially to Metal Sonic, but to some extent, every living town player. (Oh, heck. Every dead town player, too.) This shouldn't be me.

[mastin2]

i feel like mastin might respect her meta too much to violate it

and i know she never hammers as town

No, if I self-inflicted a restriction on my meta, that'd be a trust-tell. I have trends as town and as scum. Habits. Ideals. Things I do. Not hammering as town is one of them. But though I can't recall the game, I have in fact hammered as town at least once before, if not multiple times.

As with Mastin2, she ticked me off with the BS she suggested last day, damaged my townread of her while making me think her quieter play later in this game might be reflective of her scummeta, idk.

Actually, that's the opposite of my scumplay. My scumplay is strong opener, but then going quiet immediately for fear of being caught, and then to get much stronger in the lategame. My townplay is to start strong, then to continuously drop. And keep on dropping. It used to bounce back up, but it's not bouncing anymore. I've been trying to fix that, though, so I will be trying to put that effort in.

My vote will likely still be going to you, anyway, since as I said, I didn't like your reaction to my test. (And, yes, it was a test, not a suggestion. If it was a suggestion, I'd have backed it up with a vote. I didn't, because it wasn't a serious suggestion. It was fishing for his reaction.)

Oh, and by the way, we've yet to finish massclaim. I forget who's claimed and who hasn't, but I know I haven't, I don't think mollie has, I don't think zMuffin has, and I don't remember Skull's claim even though Skull likely made one. (Actually, did Venmar claim? I don't remember. Nor do I remember Gooner/pidgey claiming. Dan/sangres haven't, but they claim last anyway.) We said we'd do so after yesterday's lynch, no?

[mastin2]

Yeah, that's a very convenient and predictable answer, isn't it?

Predictable, no. You can never predict Mastin. You just fool yourself into thinking you have.
Convenient, yes, but true all the same.

If I had the intention to lynch you yesterday on the spot, I wouldn't have asked for permission. I'd have jumped in and straight-out advocated for it, with some side-note apologizing if I were to be wrong. No, my post was, quite obviously, meant for one thing and one thing only: to invoke a response from you. I was expecting an "okay" or something similarly "sure" from you, of being fine with it even though it would be wrong. That was the answer I was expecting to see, because I was expecting to see an answer that came from a town mindset, and that was the answer that I associate with said town mindset. Instead, I didn't get that.

I got a freak-out. I got ranting. I got OMGUSy responses, which continue into today. (Your lynch candidates are, dead serious, the only two seriously pushing the idea of you being the lynch today.)

Instead of getting a response that looked like the type of apathy I'd expect from a successful town. Instead of getting a response that looked natural, organic, and fluid. I got a response which seemed defensive and desperate. It could have come from town-wanting-earlier-win, but it doesn't look that way. And even now, in your current posting, I see that similar thing. It feels faked. Flat. Empty. Like your "sorry guiz" is a formality that you feel you must post, rather than something you'd naturally post. Like your entire stance on you being lynched is something you're putting in to look good, but when push comes to shove, don't actually mean.

That's why I think you're scum.

[mastin2]

your question

was

bad, and it did suggest you thought he was town (or at least that his lynch wouldn't end the game) but wanted to lynch him anyway.

Except this was the post in question:

Can we like just agree on a lynch and kill Metal Sonic already?

How okay are you with you dieing today and Metal tomorrow assuming a kill goes through and orc blocked Kaze?

A question being exactly that. A query. An inquiry. A sentence worded or expressed so as to elicit information.

I wanted to know what he thought of that scenario. I was not suggesting that scenario. I was expecting "I'm okay with it, but I'd prefer otherwise". I was expecting maybe to have analysis from Venmar as a response, similar to how when Skull was pressured, he gave a ton of his own. Instead, there was the freak-out.

what are your thoughts on venmar's play as a whole? rather than just his recent posts which you think are "flat" or whatever?

They're part of the whole, and my horrible memory means that as far as I'm concerned, they're currently the entirety of it. I haven't done my research on him. But my memory of his play this game has been that it's been...largely unproductive? Like, that he's tunneled on Metal Sonic the whole game and hasn't done much aside from that?

[mastin2]

Like...the first non-neighbor content is a REALLY questionable Cephrir interaction.
The next is pieguyn, who Venmar basically tunneled on D1 along-side Metal Sonic.
There is this bit about me.
The next non-pie/MS bit is...yet another questionable Cephrir interaction.

Looking outside your neighborhood what are you thinking about the game?

I'm thinking Pieguyn scum, Sangres lean town (based off of ffer's posting), lean town on muffin, town read on mastin, very slight gut town feeling on varsoon, and leaning town on brian.

Everyone else I haven't felt bothered enough to read yet or just arent standing out.

This is literally the first time he's given proper reads, and he did so only after having been prompted, and it's not a great list. Cephrir was left out, too, in spite of previously saying leaning town, when I was left in and I was the only other read he had expressed.

Like I haven't been pretty explicit about my reads?

zMuffin, Cephrir, Kaze, Flandre

Maybe Flandre is a little less so than the other 3

Muffin is town, Kaze might be town, Ceprhir and Flandre idk.

Go vote MS and make yourself useful.

Then there's here, where he deflects off of Cephrir/Flandre while not giving reads on them, onto Metal. He does lean scum on Cephrir here, but yet again, focus is on Metal Sonic, with pie kept around. He even makes it explicit here. And defends Flandre from being lynched here.
And also sorta defends Cephrir here.
He does vote for Kagami on D1, but again, largely, the effort I'd expect is in hindsight absent. The strongest posts he makes are mostly talking about flipped scum positively.

After pie's death and Kagami's mislynch, it's back to tunneling Metal Sonic, with no contributions otherwise. It's not until here after AP died that he posts about someone other than MS...and it's explicitly SK-hunting, not mafia-hunting.

I see most of the remaining players alive as town-ish with the exception of Metal Sonic, who is the only players I have a scumread on I would be interested in pursuing, and ActionDan, who I am paranoid about but not suspicious of.

He says this, yet gives nothing.

The first time he does anything?

Muffin is town, sorry mollie, you're wrong, accept it, go home.

...Is defending Muffin hardcore. Even then. No explanation. Nothing. Just a focus on lynching Metal Sonic.

The stuff after that, I define as recent content.

It's something which I had no issue with at the time, but in hindsight?
Venmar's done nothing this game.
Like...read Xenogears in comparison.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... ct[]=18913
There's vague similarities. But it's a completely different Venmar overall; he actually did stuff.

[mastin2]

Whatever, fuck you, is this what you want?

Vote: Venmar

Lynch me. You're not even voting me, but go ahead and put me on L-1. Or hammer me, I don't even know.

Nevermind, this shit i'm doing is something I completely fucking loved to see as scum in my most recent scumgame.

Unvote

Vote: Mastin2

How come it took you longer to type out a naked vote on me than it did for you to post your unvote which was significantly longer? Speaking of which...how did you, in the span of one minute, post your vote, read it, change your mind, AND post your unvote?

I have a very. VERY hard time believing that was legitimately a freak-out. Like, it looks

ridiculously

orchestrated. It's an AtE that makes you look better but puts zero risk on you.

[mastin2]

You could quite literally claim scum and I wouldn't vote you right now.

I think you're scum. I probably will be voting you. But I did iso-analysis on you. That's it. I haven't done my homework. I haven't looked at the other players. I've done nothing. It's something like 70% on you being scum. Not nearly 100%.

[mastin2]

do you think this is (a) unusual for venmar or (b) a sensible play for scum?

Sorta and yes, respectively.

speaking of "flat" tone, i've never seen you do an iso analysis like that. there's a complete lack of motivation analysis (or any analysis at all, really)

Which is why Venmar's not a stronger scumread. I've not bothered to fully do my research. I'm more posting ideas than I am beliefs. There's a leading idea that Venmar is scum. I haven't done enough where it's actually a belief.

Partly for exactly that reason. I haven't looked at the town/scum motive.
He's my best guess. He's not the only guess I've got.

[mastin2]

Mod: V/LA for the next week. ESPECIALLY Thursday-Sunday.

My grandmother's dieing. She's in a coma, and fading fast. She's the relative I go to visit in southern Oregon each year, meaning that when I go down there, I'm obviously going to be V/LA, emphasis on the Limited Access. I'll do what I can to keep playing, though.

what are your other guesses

Approximately in order?
You. Skull. pidgey. mollie.

You know, basically everyone not kaze/sangres/Dan.

Mollie's like 95% likely not to be. pidgey a good 85%. Skull about 70%. You're much lower than that.

My big concern while thinking of this game is that if there's for some reason 2 remaining scum then we are in for a shit surprise later on. I dont think thats likely to happen so ill operate as if there was one remaining.

If so, I'd maintain that two of zMuff, Venmar, and Kaze's slot (Iece) would be scum. But, cross that bridge if the game comes to 5 players as a possibility; otherwise, not worth considering.

Im surprised i have no read on mastin. Maybe I should

Your reads and mine are the same. That help?

[mastin2]

This is awkward. I've got so many people offering me condolences, when I heard news that she's apparently not that bad off. (The news came from my grandfather, who panicked, rather than the nurse actually looking after her, who when she examined her, found her to be in good health, apparently. Also hearing things third-hand dilutes the info further. I don't speak directly with my grandfather; I don't even speak with the person who speaks with my grandfather. I speak with the person who speaks with my grandfather, resulting in a large delay in the info chain.)

Mollie's like 95% likely not to be. pidgey a good 85%. Skull about 70%. You're much lower than that.

elaborate on these when you have time

Mollie's been basically largely town the whole game. I may not be perfect at reading her mindset, but I'm still FAIRLY good at it, and when reading her train of thought, it looks to HIGHLY match EVERYTHING I know about how she operates as town and not how she thinks as scum. Admittedly, I could be wrong, but there's also play. I've had no issues with her the entire game; everything she's done has seemed to be (albeit not entirely correct) in mind with a town mindset, in that she's trying to figure things out, rather than trying to manipulate people. Her posts come across as extremely genuine, and overall, her emotions, her tone, everything, all says town.

That's just from me. Throw in the support of sangres (both heads of which I absolutely and entirely trust to be competent at reading her) also agreeing with this super-mega-town assessment? And you've got basically the strongest townread of the not-conftown players.

Pidgey's not conftown, but the slot has been playing a hugely, HUGELY pro-town game. I went over Brian Skies already, but to reiterate: his posting came across as casual, relaxed town, a player who was scumhunting and doing so fairly well, and having no fear of being lynched. That's strongly indicative of a town mindset. You can argue that he was calm scum, not panicking, but overall, he looked highly town. His slot inheritor, Gooner, took this trend and actually INCREASED it. He immediately entered with strong analysis, and was basically the entire time trying to figure things out and coordinating. I saw that same lack of manipulation, only stronger. His posts don't read as scum faking, or scum manipulating. They read as town legitimately analyzing to figure things out, and coming up with some dang-good conclusions overall, a nice process that looks incredibly town.
Pidgey's entrance was weaker than that, thanks to a lack of effort. However, once pidgey actually GAVE that effort, he immediately started to look town to me, because pidgey's posting raised good points, looked like legitimate analysis, and basically, he tried to figure things out in spite of being at a MASSIVE disadvantage information-wise. That he's putting so much effort in doesn't look like scum desperate to rebound from a near-guaranteed lost. It strongly looks like town, trying to end the game quickly with a scum lynch. Not to mention? His reads being similar to mine (yet him clearly not having got them from sheeping/parotting me) is another solidly good sign.

Skull's a much lesser version of pidgey. I really like the effort Skull has put into the game, and Skull's reaction to impending death screamed town. Skull could be scum, yes. Skull's essentially my third choice, behind you (second) and Venmar (first). But Skull's posting simply doesn't feel like scum. That Skull's bringing up such solid points and is seeing the same things I am is again a VERY good sign. Skull's posting doesn't seem like it comes with an agenda. It strongly looks like it comes from the mindset of someone who's attempting to figure the game out. Unlike pidgey, it's fully possible Skull's posting is meant to buddy me. But though the possibility exists, I don't see Skull as likely scum. I don't have concrete reasons. More than any other player, this would be gut. Yet it's a gut I'm actually going to trust.

You? Have kinda just...been there. Your stances don't make much sense. Your posting has not been solid. You've sorta just...well, been in the game, not been as strong as I'm used to seeing from a town-you. Your arguments are kinda convenient for a scum player to make, and your stances seem to match. Additionally, there have been times in the game where it takes a stretch of logic for you to be town and have guessed the things you 'guessed' correctly, whereas if scum you'd obviously have known them. (Such as SSK being a MAFIA tracker.)

It's the read I've done the least work on. I'm not seeing you as scum in spite of the above all pointing your direction. If I knew why, this game would be much easier than it is. But it's there, at a very weak percentage. Like...if 100% is conftown and 0% is confscum, you'd be at something like 40%, maybe even lower. Venmar would be at something like 10%, butyeah. That's really where I'm standing. Assuming one scum, I really think it's Venmar. If not him, then you. If there's two scum, Kaze's slot becomes another option. But I really don't see scum as being any other players.

[mastin2]

As an aside:
zMuffinman and Venmar really look like scumbuddies.
Their whole interaction.

Their whole way of going about things.
How they're treating each other.
And even how they treat others treating the other.

All looks like scumbuddies.

IF there are two scum, I'm not going to clear Kaze's slot (who could easily be scum with either of them in this scenario), but I really want them lynched.

Ah, heck with it.

VOTE: Venmar.

[mastin2]

I'll be blunt.
Make the best case in the world.
Against mollie.
Against pidgey.
Against Skull.

Honestly. I don't think I'll listen to it. I don't see myself ever voting mollie, nor do I see myself realistically voting pidgey. (Okay, so Skull's possible. Yet not probable.) You can try to argue. You can say that I'm missing something. That my analysis is imperfect at best. That I'm not seeing something that you have seen. That I'm just entirely wrong. Yet as stupid as this sounds coming from the person who hardcore defended SSK? I really don't feel like I am, here. If both Venmar and zMuffinman flipped town? Sure! Yeah. Obviously, I'd have gone wrong. So if you made cases on the other players with the expectation that I wouldn't listen to them unless we got to 5 players, then yeah, I'd listen after that.

But before then? I really don't think anything anyone will say to me is going to shift my opinion away from this.

[mastin2]

Like...I know it's a bad idea.
I KNOW I

should

be open to the possibility I'm wrong.
I know that I should listen to the fact that I've BEEN wrong on these strong feelings.
I know that I should be willing to have an open mind, and change it if there's a solid case to sway me.
I know. That's good play. That's what I should be doing.

...But I can't.

If I were to describe this feeling?
It's the "flipped switch" feeling. That something has clicked into place.
Yeah! Stupid. I know. But it's there.

I should be asking for opinions from Nacho. I should be asking sangres in general to convince me they're right. I should be listening to zMuffinman. To Mollie. To everyone. On who they think is scum and why. I should eventually be following the conftown. I should be doing all of that and so much more. I should be.

But what I want to be doing.
What I really, really want to be doing.

Is to simply say, "Trust me", and for people to sheep me, even though I'm normally not the strongest player of those here that are living. And that if I were wrong about Venmar, to then sheep me onto zMuffinman.
In spite of how I know that should be a bad idea, to lose two days to someone who's been utterly wrong before, and also as a consequence lose two conftown if it turns out that I'm in error. I know that. I shouldn't be asking you.

But I really, really want to.

[mastin2]

(Side-note, but when the people in the dead QT read my posts above, I kinda get the impression they're either going, "FUCK YEAH! Mastin just won the game." Or, "NO! NO! BAD MASTIN, BAD! BAD! BAD!" )

[mastin2]

Oh, heck with it. I'll do random analysis anyway.

mastin2

I'm tempted to agree about the wagon on Brian. Also leaning town on you thus far.

Brian Skies

What are you thinking of the contents of your wagon?

Kazekirimaru

If I wanted people to know who I was, I would be on my main account. That being said, you're the only one who really called out my naked vote on Brian. Townpoints to you.

Skullduggery

Yes, selfvote was an option. I did like your bit about getting used to quote walls however.

ActionDan

I'd like to see you try What are your thoughts on the Brian Skies wagon?

Venmar

What made you want to vote Metal Sonic?

orcinus_theoriginal

I'm not really understanding your interaction with Brian. If you don't want someone to declare intent/ask for a claim why did you participate in keeping him at L-1 rather than unvote before anything happened?

Everyone here is known town except Skull, Brian, and Venmar. The bit about the Brian Skies wagon could also be important since I said:

Not really liking this wagon. Skull's almost certainly town, and Kagami's got a high probability of being town, yet the other three...not so much. (Which is another reason to townread Brian Skies. )

With Varsoon, zMuff, Metal Sonic, and Brian himself adding themselves to the wagon, and me saying town/maybe-town/null/town (respectively), and also calling Cephrir out on him WKing the wagon. (Which he was.)

Speaking of which, I'm heavily inclined to think Cephrir was WKing rather than defending a scumbuddy, which would make pidgey's slot town as a result.

I like Brian Skies catch up posts, they felt genuine, along with his reaction to the flashwagon.
The macmollie/sangres interaction felt like a TvT to me.

I'm liking orcinus_theoriginal's hated claim.

I kinda feel two scum in {pieguyn, mastin2, zMuffinMan} but it's a gut instinct more than anything. But, I feel like part of the wagon on mastin2 is a burden of proficiency wagon.

I feel like there's one scum in {Aegor, Skullduggery}

So Flabndre did mention all the neighbors in this post, but I'm honestly not seeing the issue with that, given that they were most of the active players in the game at that point and there's no obvious grouping. Given that both SSK and Cephrir were off this list entirely, it's quite likely that Flandre wasn't casting focus onto scumbuddies, one way or the other. If there's scum, it'd be in the names lumped in without reason, which we'd know would be either zMuff or Skull. Basically, my working theory is that Flandre only cast attention (be it positive-light or negative-light) on town players, so as to keep scumbuddies in the background. (Admittedly, this theory could be confbiasing evidence to fit the read, but it's a point I want people to consider all the same.)

Accentuated here. I'm fairly certain there are more players than that, such as Metal Sonic, that were left out. Flandre as scum is obviously going to remember scumbuddies better, which does give credence to this idea.

sangres, Cephrir, Angry Frat Bros, ActionDan, Aegor, Skullduggery, orcinus_theoriginal, pieguyn, Varsoon

TTNTSTNNN

The current composition of the wagon on me. The disguised policy lynch is amusing, to say the least.

Town on sangres, Cephrir, Dan, and Skull; Null on AFB, Orc, Pie, and Varsoon; scum on Aegor. Seems important; we know that all the nulls are town. The question is if there's only one scum in the town (Cephrir) or two. I'm inclined to it being only one.

Admittedly, I am ignoring some Brian Skies interactions that make pidgey possible-buddy. But I see said interactions as essentially null, in that I see Flandre making them regardless of Brian Skies's alignment.

SSK's iso increases the chance of zMuff being a scumbuddy slightly, though.

Also, reading Cephrir's iso (skimming, actually) makes Skull not look like scum. I also think that his reads oddly switched after I scumread him. It's kinda sorta as if he had one plan, then I ruined it, and he switched to another. (Yes, I'm fully aware of how egotistical that sounds.)

/really meh quick analysis. If you can call it that.

[mastin2]

As an aside: zMuffinman and Venmar really look like scumbuddies. Their whole interaction. Their whole way of going about things. How they're treating each other. And even how they treat others treating the other. All looks like scumbuddies.

Can you pull up some examples of this when you get a minute?

on phone atm so not gonna do lengthy response but @mastin give me examples of the town stances you think mollie has taken this game

Why does everyone keep asking me to give examples? They know it's my weakness as a player. ;_;
Like, I guess I can try, but largely, this is probably the kind of thing you either see or don't see, and me pointing it out won't change whether you agree with it or not. I guess I could attempt to explain why, but I can guarantee you right here and now that'll fail, and my attempt to do so will take too much time anyway, assuming I even finished because that type of work kinda drains my energy fast.

ok, so i'll spell out the mafia tracker thing in very simple terms [blah blah].

While that's all nice and good, the tracker claim wasn't the only instance I was talking about. I'm pretty dang certain there's more. I've thought of them previously, but for whatever reason, didn't post them in-thread and have since forgotten them, but I know I've had similar issues with other things, akin to the tracker knowledge.

Oh. Now I remember one. There may be others, but you've also pushed the idea of two scum. If there actually were two scum, that'd look hella-bad for you. There may be others aside from that, too, but you get the idea. I'm concerned that your insight is too sharp, especially given the overall dullness feeling to your posting overall.

i'm pretty sure i was _the_ most vocal player in pushing the mafiassk lynch, i was also arguably _the_ most vocal player in pushing the aegor lynch through (coz, hey, go figure, it was after like a 2-page exchange with me that he got fed up and self-voted - and while it may not have been entirely because of me, i wasn't exactly "just there" when it happened).

I'll give a look at SSK, but pushing Aegor is no towntell.

D5 and D6? i've been making my opinions pretty fucking clear and i've been vocal about it.

Yet I don't feel the magic of a town-zMuff as much as I feel like I should be.

my stances don't make sense? which ones? coz i've made most of my thoughts on things pretty transparent and i literally don't know which stances you are referring to here.

All of them? Molliescum, Venmartown, basically, everything you've pushed recently has felt...off.

same with my posting not being solid. like, i've made cases, i've argued against cases, i've pushed my thoughts, i've repsonded to people, i don't really know what you're expecting in terms of "solid" posting or why you think my posts haven't been solid

They don't feel like you've put your heart into them? Like, I know you've pushed them. But they seem more reactive than they do proactive. As if you're playing Black rather than White, someone who's of course making moves, aggressive moves, but not playing the offensive long-term game that White would.

(and elaboration on venmar since you still haven't done the analysis you promised, but whatever)

Venmar's basically my number one choice for scum because, well...his mindset simply doesn't seem town from what I've seen, and his interactions with scum (and scum's [lack of] interaction with him) seem terrible. Like...there are elements which look town, especially town at the time. But which when looked at in hindsight, are far more null overall, and perhaps scum. His excessive tunneling on players, for instance, is a convenient way for him to have dodged giving content on other players, and gives him an excuse to stay off of scum wagons. (Which he did.)

Furthermore, other than his initial aggression against the neighbors (and maybe pie--I need to check on pie's stance on Venmar), his play has largely been reactive. He's been tunneling on players, but has put very little effort and energy into actually lynching players. He made a weak case against Metal Sonic, but had basically none against pieguy, and has had essentially no attempt to persuade others to his reads. Like, tunneling can come from town, but when it does, it often has effort attached to making players follow the tunneler. Venmar's got plenty of "Or we could lynch Metal Sonic" posts in there, but I only recall maybe one or two "WHY we should lynch Metal Sonic" posts, which weren't very strong, never followed-through on, and are quite weak overall.

All-in-all? His pushes don't feel genuine. Especially after MS flipped town. That "sorry guiz" attitude, in particular, felt entirely fake. His posting since then has continued the trend. His reads now are OMGUSy in nature, with literally his only two suspects being the players calling him scum. His posting continues to be reactionary, though, because while he calls us scum, he's not provided strong reasoning for it. We're scum 'cuz we are, not because of anything resembling reasoning.

His reads have no strength. There's also an extreme lack of trajectory in his reads. (Don't kill me, ffery.) There's almost no evolution, no change, no shift in them. Static, stale, stagnant reads that he kept throughout the game. It's not the town him that I remember seeing at all. I remember there being elements of this in his posting as town, but never all present at the same time, and even when present, only being a piece of the whole. As town, he gave so much more than what he's given this game, and I know he's capable of doing far more than what he's done.

And bluntly, mollie's been basically the opposite. I haven't done my research, but bluntly, the only thing in her posting that even so much as remotely resembles her scumplay was her early-game lurking, and even that wasn't as bad as I'd expect, with her having been much more active overall. Her reads I remember being better, and I've seen no issue with scum's interactions with her. (Granted, I don't particularly remember many mollie interactions, but those that I do remember point to town.)

But even if not. Even if not for those factors, mollie's posting has been strongly proactive. Yes, there are reactive elements, especially in regards to others' reads on her not being positive, but in her case, that's actually a good sign, because she was justified in being worried from what she knows of us as players...and unlike Venmar or you who've mostly just left that in place, she's been following through on it and trying to sort things out. She's been bridging the gaps. She's done those reach-outs. She's analyzed. She's not been manipulating; she's not been trying to survive. She's been trying to understand. Like, there's a lot more I could say, but basically...there's essentially zero about her that's scum. She's the strongest non-conftown townread I have.

And you ignoring that is yet another reason I'm concerned about

you

, because a town-you I far more remember respecting my opinion, whereas a scum-you I quite remember discarding it.

I have a smashing idea: let's not lynch Pidgey today. I just looked through Brian's and Gooner's ISOs and found them both to be painfully Town. I went out of my way to try to find incriminating scummy shit and came away empty-handed.

This is also why pidgey's my second-strongest not-conftown read.

Bluntly. I know this sounds arrogant. I know this sounds stupid. But I legitimately.
Seriously.
Feel like I'm one of the only town players who has their brain not turned off right now. That I've actually put serious thought and effort into figuring out who could be scum. My evidence isn't backed by extensive research. But I've been thinking.
I can't see pidgey's slot as scum; all three have been town in their own ways, without a hint of scum.
I can't see mollie's slot as scum.

I guess Skull being scum is theoretically possible, but I don't think so.

Also, side-note, but I read the first ten or so pages of the game a while back, and seeing things in their full content mode solidified a fair amount of these feelings. That Brian Skies is town (and thus, pidgey as a result), that Venmar is one of the more likely scum candidates, that zMuffinman is another. I didn't go much further, but really. I honestly don't feel like I should have to.

This is something where I really, really feel like saying, "Just...trust me."

[mastin2]

In fact, I think I will.

Nacho, I don't expect you to fully trust me on being 100% right.
But trust me enough to know that I'm speaking with 100% of me behind it. This isn't some half-hearted read. I might not have the most logically-backed case. But please. Read what I'm saying, and give the game a brief look with that in mind. Like...if I thought this was BS, I'd admit it. If I thought I was full of myself, I'd admit it. If I thought that I was entirely wrong, I'd be open about it. But...I don't. This feels solid. It feels right. And pidgey being scum...doesn't. Just like mollie being scum doesn't.

Like...on SSK, there was a piece of me at the back of my mind that I suppressed out of stubbornness that said I could be wrong--that SSK's comment about me having nailed his meta was right, but that his posting this game was the scum version not the town version. (Of course, this is a "take my word for it" thing, since obviously, I have no proof of that and even my own mind is prone to rewriting my personal history.) But I'm thinking.
There's a fear of if I'm wrong.
There's a fear of "what if mollie's scum?"
"What if pidgey's scum?"

A fear...yet not a thought. Like...I guess I could think Brian Skies's posting was relaxed scum. I guess I could think Gooner's strong entrance was an act that didn't accomplish much. I guess I could think that pidgey's lack of emotional outburst is a bad sign for him. But though those possibilities exist, I can't find myself believing them. I ask myself if it's the stubbornness again. That I'm refusing because I don't want to be wrong...again. And I'd be the first to admit that it's not impossible. But...I don't feel like it's true.

This started as just a major gut feeling. But right now...it feels right. It just feels right, for not just some inexplicable gut reason. Because I've actually explained the gut reason, and...it makes sense. The picture fits. It strongly says town, not scum. The town picture looks awesome. The town picture looks legitimate. The scum picture is weak, convoluted, and broken. Yes, it's true. There's no such thing as a perfect town/scum picture. Yet that's the thing: the fact that the pictures ARE imperfect is only serving to strengthen the feeling. And given the choice between a near-flawless-yet-not-perfect town-picture, and a messy-sloppy-hastily-thrown-together scum-picture...I'm choosing the former.

I wish there was some better way to explain this. This sensation. That last time I was wrong, but this time in spite of me having put it all on the line and lost...that this time, I'm actually not. That's what it feels like. Like it's not a mistake. Like pidgey's actually town. That Venmar or zMuffinman or both (most likely just Venmar, though) are the scum here, and that townreads there simply shouldn't be that strong off of what they've given. That's where I'm at. So even if you don't fully sheep me. Even if you don't pull a sudden reversal. I ask that you listen to that. Because while I think my explanation sucks, the point should be getting through the communication barrier all the same.

Please listen.

[mastin2]

Can you pull up some examples of this when you get a minute?

I can pull up more examples later, but basically, every bit of zMuff's posting and Venmar's posting after my most recent post? Is basically the type of thing. They're basically tag-teaming.

Mastin is using reasoning to justify her bizzare scumread of me as if she has never played with me before.

I have! Yet this...this isn't the towngame I saw from you in Xenogears. Your play here is nothing like your play there. You keep

saying

it is, but this game feels like a second-rate copy of it, as if it's scum-mimicking-a-towngame rather than town-actually-playing-a-towngame. Like...I don't see the similarity. At all.

PEDit: FYI I was very firmly anti-Brian wagon Day 1.

(Another point against you, for the record, given that one or two scum WKing is to have been expected.)

Holy fuck this post.
Nacho I forbid you to read that post.

Because that post is a post you don't want read; it not only makes it clear where I come from (town mindset), but also helps show why you're scum.

That "sorry guiz" attitude, in particular, felt entirely fake.

That's...

rich

coming from you.

I've had none of that. You: "Oh, lynch MS; he scum." We lynch him, he flips town. "Whoops, sorry."

Me? Me, I'm saying sorry right here and now for not being the player I should be. It does trace back to a root lynch where I was wrong, SSK. But in this case, the whole is much larger than just this game. If you look at Rubicon's Fire and Ice game, I hardcore pushed the mislynch of Surye, at the same time this game I hardcore defended SSK. Only a few players in this game (I think all of them are dead, though) can fully appreciate the scale of what that did to me, to be wrong so much in less than 48 hours, with back to back wrongness destroying my confidence in my towngame. One mis-push, I could call a fluke. Multiple mis-pushes made me rethink my mafia life. And it hasn't been until recent games (such as Tales) that I've begun to gain my confidence back from that disastrous time period. Including here, right now.

That's the difference between a fake "sorry guiz" and an "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahg. sorry. sorry. sorry I suck" outburst. The difference between a scum player posting as a formality and a town player who is recognizing their weaknesses.

And Mastin, I'll see if I can get Nacho to have a look.

In the mean time, I realized I could reach out to you as well and ask your half of sangres to do some work, too. You were in Xenogears; you saw a town Venmar just like me. Do you honestly think his play this game resembles that game? Because to me...it doesn't. At all. Heck, ffery, meta's kinda your thing. You should be able to get a much better picture of him, getting to know his scumgame and have additional towngames to know, if you haven't already. I need you telling me about what you see of Venmar after that. 'Cause what I have points to him being scum, in basically all of his posting.

[mastin2]

I swear we've played more together than just Xenogears. But if you want to compare me to Xeno games, how about you notice a simple pattern? Tunneling? I spent All of day 1 Xenoblade tunneling Sajin until I cleared him Night 1 via hide. Oh, what have I been doing this game? Tunnel MS from Day 1? HOW ABSURD, NO CONNECTION THERE LOL???

But i'm not going to use my own meta to defend myself anymore because I find it absurd to do so.

Like I said. Your play here seems like scum-imitating-their-towngame rather than town-actually-playing-their-towngame. For instance, the way you're going about defending yourself against the meta attacks. I realize this is a sucky way to explain it, but your way of defending against meta attacks is the same way I do it as scum: bringing up specific instances from specific games and going into detail about why the current game is like the past game, and being derisive of the person using the meta while also going for cheap towncred (or ranting about being caught for the wrong reasons) that meta's worthless.

The way I do that as town is that instead of bringing up specific examples from specific games in detail, I will describe the general trend, and bring up games that they've seen me in, as town and as scum, and tell them that they KNOW better than that. I never take that derogatory tone; I might call them idiots, but I do so with respect. I realize that's me, not you, but still, it

does

influence how I perceive you. Because this post? Feels like the former: scum trying to imitate their past self to clear them, and insulting their opponent for catching them on things they might see as having been entirely wrong. Rather than the latter, town playing their town self, angry at having been pushed when their pusher should know better.

Oh, so i'm scum if i'm ON the wagon, but i'm also scum if i'm NOT on the wagon? That sounds like some seriously flawed logic, and sounds like you're just tailoring me to look like scum now.

...No? The only time I said anything about you being on the wagon was when I accidentally switched Varsoon and yourself in my mind, and that was calling him town on it. Being on the wagon isn't a scumtell, not to me. Being off the wagon isn't a scumtell, either. WKing the wagon

is

a scumtell, and your post reminded me that you did so.

2. When I said it was rich of you, I meant it in the way that you gave me scum points for (apparently?) being sorry, when almost every post I bother to read from you has you appealing to several people and being all like "OH I MIGHT BE WRONG, I KNOW GUYS I KNOW, I KNOW". You're always doing it, so how dare you make it a scumtell for ME of all people? See, in the post above you say you are sorry for defending scum in this game (and other games, which I have no idea why it should be in ANYWAY be relevant or used here?) and frustrate at the fact no one appreciates that it makes you feel bad. But when I feel bad for tunneling Metal Sonic, a town, for the whole game, I get the scumpoints in the face? Jesus fucking christ.

And as I explained: it's not the act of saying "sorry" that is the scumtell. It's the tone. "sorry guiz" (basically your exact wording)? Not genuine. Fake. Artificial. There as a formality, rather than as something you actually believe.

Me? For me, you can see the entire thought process behind it. The full story was hidden thanks to ongoing games (and also partially hidden by part of the story being in the Speakeasy with a thread I made being relevant to my mindset), but the picture was there nonetheless. You can track my thoughts. You can see where I'm coming from. I'm explaining exactly why I feel the way I do, and why I'm apologizing for not having done better than I have. The circumstances also play a large part in it. With me? I am apologizing for not being more than I am, for my faults, for my flaws, as a player being unable to overcome those feelings and being subjective rather than objective. For my failures, for my lack of reasoning, for everything that makes me not be a Paragon-level scumhunter. That I screwed up. That I lost my confidence. That I let my failures destroy me, and ruin my reputation. I'm apologizing for the fact that, yes, I fully know I could be wrong...but that I'm pushing what I am anyway in spite of that possibility. Because a better town player shouldn't be doing that.

You? Yours was just "sorry, I was wrong". And that was it. Your number one scumread throughout the whole game. flipped town. and you have a private QT where you could have said the "sorry". And instead of in there. you say it in here. and move on. without a second of thought. continue to tunnel as you have been tunneling the whole game. no remorse. no hesitation. no reanalysis. no effort to figure out where you went wrong. A flat "sorry" that held no meaning. It had no backing. You said it. But then you never meant it, because your posting after that? Sure doesn't look sorry.

Again. The tone's the difference. Mine, you can tell is genuine. (Okay, so I guess I could fake it, theoretically. I did a good job in Anything Goes of faking that genuine tone, but there, I had help: it actually

was

largely genuine, thanks to a legitimate misread of AP/BRO that helped me spin the narrative. But there's a reason that, bluntly, tone's basically the number one reason I lose my scumgames: because a scum-me literally cannot fake that genuineness.) Yours...wasn't. There was no remorse. Nothing, except continued posting as if your read had been meaningless and worthless.

Which, bluntly, I feel it was--coming from scum, a scumread on a town player would be meaningless, would be worthless, because they didn't really care about it, so can move on with zero emotional loss to it. But I don't care how arrogant a player you are: no town player hardcore tunnels, has their scumread flip town, and then carries on as if that scumread never happened. Yet you? Did.

[mastin2]

Your number one scumread throughout the whole game. flipped town. and you have a private QT where you could have said the "sorry". And instead of in there. you say it in here.

(This is actually a fairly important bit. My understanding is that the QTs open at night. And I know from past experience with bork that when there's only one person left alive, bork will allow the QT to stay open. So Venmar could have posted his "sorry" in the neighbor QT, to apologize to Metal Sonic. To AP. He could have townclaimed in there, and said his piece about him having screwed up. But instead of posting in there...he waits until morning to post in here. Why? Because his post here is meant as a formality to make himself look better.)

[mastin2]

No, my QT was closed indefinitely the second Metal Sonic died.

Except that's generally not what bork does for QTs? Like I said...in my experience, quite explicitly, he leaves the QT open for the player to dump their notes in.

For the sake of finally ending this game, lets lynch Skull, in the name of AP's dying wish.

You know, the more you say that I should be lynched because that's what AFB wanted before he died, the more I'm inclined to believe that you killed AFB so you could use it as justification to set up my mislynch.

Not

exactly

this, but the general idea is still there. I need to check the kill patterns, but I think that Varsoon (who we now know to be the mafia nightkill) is an important NK. AFB is another one, where I can see no player having more incentive to kill them than Venmar. (Okay, so I would, but I'd do it N1, not N4.)

why didn't you respond to 3396?

Because there was nothing to respond to? You defended yourself. There was nothing in that defense to comment on.

And your first votes were on both your neighbors? Why happened to love thy neighbor? Apparently you don't have the generous spirit, so I'm being proactive in kicking you out.

I was trying to find out which one of you two was likely to be scum (if either?), you just made it easy for me.

I liked this mindset early: I don't expect scum Venmar would use neighborhood ammo against Metal Sonic since that's early mislynch then Venmar + AFB.

At the time, I liked it, too. But, really, his push there largely seemed, again, like a formality. His AFB vote was fairly empty. His Metal Sonic push was also kinda half-hearted. The push made him look good. I can see the town thought, of it being a 3p neighborhood and thinking one scum. Yet I also see a scum thought of knowing that town thought, faking it, and yet not getting it to backfire on him with his handling of it.

(By the way--in their exchange, I can see both as town or either as scum. It vaguely looks like it could be townVtown, but there are things Skull are saying that make Skull massively town and other things not so much, whereas Venmar also has said some things that seem genuine and other things that seem like BS. It's something I feel I need to read properly instead of skimming.)

[mastin2]

Okay.

Dan/Neighbors:

I know Nacho. He blazed last night with one or both of you. He wouldn't let himself die without doing analysis. So I want a full paraphrase of what happened last night, so that I can get Nacho's thoughts. Because I know his blazing and I know it's pretty dang good.

Dan:

I know your posting is mostly minimalistic, but given your status as conftown? Stop slacking off. Don't make me regret calling you one of the top-five scumhunters on the site. Analyze. Tell me what you're thinking. Give me where you are. Today's the only day you can do so, and I need it. I'll listen to what you have to say. Be it mollie, pidgey, Skull, or zMuff. I'll hear you out. But I need you to actually

give

that effort.

Iecerint:

Dan's right about the hypocrisy. Your posting this game has been lackluster. Bluntly, if there were two scum, you'd be my number one pick for a lynch simply because your slot has never been town and you've used the excuse of being conftown to not give any serious effort to this game. So stop slacking off. I KNOW you are capable of full-blown analysis, even in a game of this length. Give it.

I realize I'm guilty of this myself, in spite of not being conftown. But I'm actually going to try and fix it. You two both should, too. I've got no intention of leading the town. I've got no intention of taking up that mantle. I've got no intention of dictating our actions, of what we're going to do. But if you two don't, then bluntly, who will? You're confirmed town. You SHOULD be leading. So step your game up. Do-or-die. Do, and I will follow. Don't, and you'll both die, and right or wrong, I'll hijack the town, and take full responsibility if we lose 'cause I'm sick of this. 'Kay?

Refresh my memory -- why do we know this to be the case again?

Small derp on my part. We don't. My thought was "MafiaSSK visited sangres, so the mafia didn't nightkill them. Thus, they must've killed Varsoon, with Aegor killing sangres." I forgot that the mafia coulda killed pie, too.

[mastin2]

(And by the way. For those who doubt?
"You've been wrong so many times before! Why lead again, when you'll just be wrong again?"
Because I'm willing to take the fall for having been wrong if I've given the time and effort to read the game and ended up making the wrong call. [After all...it's a good way for people to stop thinking me to be more competent than I am, when I'm mediocre-at-best overall.] But that's exactly why I want someone else to lead. I don't trust myself to be competent enough to make the right call.
"Nobody's going to listen to you."
Oh, but that's the scary thing. Yes, yes they will. Be it through stubborn strongman tactics or cunning guile, I'll be able to charismatically persuade people into following me. Bartering, blackmailing, threatening, smooth-talking, whatever combination it'd take. I can read players; I know what buttons to push. So, yes. I can in fact get the town behind my banner again. In spite of having been wrong before. In spite of likely being wrong again. In spite of me probably being wrong in the future. Yes, I can get people to follow me. The Venmar lynch yesterday was proof enough of that. It might take me until deadline to accomplish. But I can get lynched anyone I choose to get lynched. Yet I don't want to be that person. I don't like to take that role, especially not when proven wrong.

Thus, my demand from Dan and Iecerint.)

[mastin2]

Just realized a couple questions I can ask:

Mollie:

Not saying you're wrong about your scumread on zMuff, but if zMuff were to be town, who'd be your pick for scum?

zMuff:

Not saying you're wrong about your scumread on mollie, but if mollie were to be town, who'd be your pick for scum?

Skull:

Your Venmar scumread was wrong, so who's your pick for scum?

[mastin2]

Hopefully the paraphrase is good enough. He basically just wanted to talk to Mollie but didn't get a chance to say more after she responded.

Can I get a paraphrase of the entire content from the QT from the beginning? It'd be helpful.

However, I can't help but shake the feeling that our (probably-)last scumbag is keeping Mollie and Muffin alive so they'll spend all their time focusing on each other.

Sadly not exactly alignment-indicative given number of conftown.

It's true that I'm not familiar with your Scum game, but I do know that you try to avoid bussing whenever possible, so your hard defense of SSK could be indicative of that.

Fair 'nuff. If you're expecting a defense, you'll be sorely disappointed, since I've none to give.

zMuff: Not saying you're wrong about your scumread on mollie, but if mollie were to be town, who'd be your pick for scum?

dun no

Get an idea?

What do you think the timing of Kaze's replace-out indicates about his alignment?

Absolutely nothing? I've been treating the slot as one entity.

also pretty sure mastin took AD's "heh" response (3589) as calling you a hypocrite

Basically, yeah. For chastising Dan for lack of leading, you've sure lacked it yourself, Iece.



Basic rundown of thoughts:

Mollie:

Plus side, tone and overall feel seems like town-mollie. Down-side, stances seem like scum and her absence in critical areas is concerning.

zMuff:

Plus side, arguments sound town. Down-side, doesn't look town. If that makes sense. (No, it doesn't. I need to get back to this.)

Skull:

Plus side, SSK investigation and looks like arguments come from town. Down side, SSK investigation and could be scum.

pidgey:

Plus side, all occupiers of the slot look highly highly town. Down side, they haven't really done much to keep townness, essentially.

Iece:

Plus side, JK result. Downside, lack of positive content throughout game.

Multitasking, so will come back with more.

[mastin2]

Yes, I suck.

I'm behind.
Not caught up.

And bluntly, apathetic about it all.
'Cause I really don't know.

There's nobody I'm actually suspicious of.

Like, none.

By necessity, that means some on everyone, but...while there's definitely some ambivalence, it's still essentially, well...me having nothing. On anyone. In spite of how a case can be made on any player being scum, I don't feel any of those cases as being holding water. And that's where I'm at, that worthless stage where someone has to be scum but I really don't know.

[mastin2]

Bork says the game's not going quickly.

But to me, I have the opposite take on it.
Bluntly, I'm...well. Really, really struggling to keep up. I'm sorry, everyone. I'll end up working the motivation to do stuff somehow. Or failing that, sheep near deadline. Regardless of who's the lynch candidate. (I'd lynch myself at this point simply because I'm that deadweight.)

I really don't feel anything.
I'll need to read. Maybe I'll feel something after seeing the posting from other people.
But right now, I don't.
And this is The Fall levels of...badness in me, you could say. I know it's possible that I can do this. Just, right now, I don't know how.

I could see Iece as scum with a role that beats the JK. Or scum with two scum, obv.
I could see zMuff as scum.
I could see mollie as scum.
I could see Skull as scum, playing a high-level scumgame, even though mostly I lean against it.
I could see pidgey as scum, in spite of Brian Skies and Gooner all playing solid games. (In fact I might actually be leaning this way, but by like a small fraction of a percent. If there were only two candidates, this would be a 50.005%, not even close to 51%, and there's not only two candidates.)

I suck. I'm sorry. There's no excuse for this kind of thing. :/

[mastin2]

Hello I suck

(Really, really suck far worse than orc ever could.)