Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Gooner]

Hi gooner. Do you think we should sheep the vote you have down right now or no?

I make it 3/4 days before deadline. I make that enough time to read the thread and formulate reads.

Of course if someone wants to spoonfeed me a strong case on someone I won't complain.

And no I'm not a watcher.

[Gooner]

(The joke is that your current vote is on yourself, btw)

Ahh, well when I'm caught up that vote will move.

[Gooner]

Still catching up...

[Gooner]

Good news, my read-through should be done tomorrow morning at some point. If you lot want to start moving to end the day you're more than welcome to.

[Gooner]

Ok, I'm caught up at last.

Now, first things first how I tend to scumhunt in Day One:
I first of all try to find smoking gun, a really strong moment or point that makes me pretty sure someone's scum. I don't have that so far. So then I look for players who are kind of blending in, not really doing much, not really trying to find scum or push a lynch. Players who are sort of sitting back and watching the town run around like headless chickens. Moreover bear in mind that I have very little meta experience with you, although I think I've played with a fair few of you in the past.

So, with that in mind, time for a good old roster run (or reads list or whatever they're called here):
ActionDan: This is the type of player I dislike. A player who nobody has paid any attention to up to this point and has done literally nothing useful to deserve his status in the town. He's completely passed under the radar.
Aegor: I disliked the conversation with Skull and I don't think he's done a lot that's useful. His quote walls have largely been empty and vacuous and haven't really said a lot.
Angry Frat Bros: I doubt this slot's scum, he's been too pro-active. However I have a concern with him which I'll detail in my next post.
Gooner- Awesome as shown by the fact he supports Arsenal.
Cabd- I hardly remember anything this slot has posted. This makes me nervous and makes me dislike him a lot.
Cephrir- I think he's town since he's been pretty pro-active and has done stuff on Day One. I don't see a smoking gun against him so he's town for now.
Flandre Scarlet- I disliked the bandwagon vote on this slot early on and other than that we've had nothing from this slot. I'm happy to lynch this slot today.
Kagami- Another player I dislike simply for blending in and not really doing anything.
Kazekirimaru- I initially liked this slot but since then this slot had blended in and fulfils my criteria for a Day One vote.
macmollie- I disliked this slot early on simply because it didn't seem like the way mollie normally played. It still doesn't to be honest with you so this slot concerns me.
MafiaSSK- This is how this slot normally plays based on my past game with him and what others have said about him. Null leaning town.
Mastin- He would have backed down and done what he was told when the wagon built on him as scum. The fact he was so stubborn suggests town.
Metal Sonic- Chronic bandwagoning and I forgot about him at one point. Another player I would be happy to lynch.
Orcinus_theoriginal- His case on Skull was bad but at least he's done something noteworthy and that puts him on my not lynch list.
pieguyn- Probably town. He was pro-active early on, his claim doesn't seem like something scum would claim and his reaction to being bandwagoned seemed genuine.
Sangres- I quite like this slot. It's done stuff despite having more fluff posts than I'm normally comfortable with on Day One.
Skullduggery- So town it's painful. Questioning, probing and generally being controversial suggests town to me.
Varsoon- I disliked his vote for me but there seem to have been genuine reasons for his inactivity. Null for now.
Venmar- Completely blending into the background but the fact he was paranoid regarding his neighbourhood probably suggests town.
zMuffinman- Bad votes on this slot and pieguyn. I liked his reads list though and he's not blending in so he wins points for that.

VOTE: Flandre Scarlet is a lynch I'm happy with for now.

Town/Not Scum: Mastin, Skull, Cephrir, pieguyn, Angry Frat Bros, MafiaSSK, Orcinus, Venmar, Sangres
Null: Muffin, Varsoon
Scum: Cabd, Aegor, ActionDan, Scarlet, Kagami, Kaze, macmollie, Sonic

[Gooner]

L-1 by the way.

[Gooner]

Dan, vote Cephrir with me and I won't serial kill you tonight.

Yeah here it is, the thing with AFB. Now this could be a Freudian slip that AFB is an SK. In particular Broseidon's excuse seems odd:

Dan, vote Cephrir with me and I won't serial kill you tonight.

Oops, I typed vigilante but my phone auto-corrected it to SK, LOL.

I mean a phone auto-correcting vigilante to serial killer? I find it unlikely to be honest with you.

For the moment though I don't suggest lynching AFB until or unless we have evidence that there is a serial killer in the game since I really doubt AFB's scum. Basically I want to see how many kills there are in a night and if anyone other than AFB claims responsibility for them before I assume there's a serial killer and lynch him.

[Gooner]

can't tell if serious

or just mental

Probably both. Like I said if we are ever pretty sure there's an SK in the game then AFB will be the first place I will be looking.

[Gooner]

That doesn't make sense to assume AFB is a SK...

Well it's a good thing I'm not assuming AFB is then.

[Gooner]

Probably both. Like I said if we are ever pretty sure there's an SK in the game then AFB will be the first place I will be looking.

Ahem.

Do you genuinely believe that AFB slipped in 467?

It's possible. If we have evidence of an SK at any point it'll be the first place I'll be looking.

[Gooner]

Gooner- Awesome as shown by the fact he supports Arsenal.

I'll try not to hold it against you.

Spoiler:

Ugghhh, that game today put me in a bad mood. 4 down after 20 minutes. Wasn't happy.

[Gooner]

Yeah here it is, the thing with AFB. Now this could be a Freudian slip that AFB is an SK. In particular Broseidon's excuse seems odd:

I like gooner, but if he actually believes this then he needs to reevaluate his life.

Again, if we end up finding out that there is an SK in this game then that comment bears greater relevance than it does at the moment.

[Gooner]

I'd be content with a Kagami lynch today. Checking with bork about whether I can just copy-paste my reads list from the neighbourhood here or whether I have to re-write it.

[Gooner]

Dan, vote Cephrir with me and I won't serial kill you tonight.

Yeah here it is, the thing with AFB. Now this could be a Freudian slip that AFB is an SK. In particular Broseidon's excuse seems odd:

Dan, vote Cephrir with me and I won't serial kill you tonight.

Oops, I typed vigilante but my phone auto-corrected it to SK, LOL.

I mean a phone auto-correcting vigilante to serial killer? I find it unlikely to be honest with you.

For the moment though I don't suggest lynching AFB until or unless we have evidence that there is a serial killer in the game since I really doubt AFB's scum. Basically I want to see how many kills there are in a night and if anyone other than AFB claims responsibility for them before I assume there's a serial killer and lynch him.

AFB, my position always was don't kill AFB unless we have good evidence there is an SK. I didn't backtrack, that was my original position.

[Gooner]

1. Considering the fact we're a 5-player neighbourhood I doubt we're all town. Possible but unlikely. Probably one scum, unlikely to be two.
2. I'm pretty confident that Skull is town and I like sangres too, not as much as Skull but he doesn't look scum to me. At the moment I'm disliking Aegor and macmollie, I reckon one of you two is scum. Not sure which at the moment.
3. I dislike Venmar more than I did initially after the Flandre flip. I expect there to be one scum nestled amongst my town reads and he seems like a likely candidate at the moment.
4. I reckon two of Kaze,Kag, Venmar and Sonic are scum off the wagon. At the moment I lean Kaze and Kag, I liked Venmar being paranoid about his neighbourhood at the start of the game and Kaze and Kag seem to want to blend into the background a lot, to be honest I don't remember much that either player has done.
5. That leaves probably one more scum on the wagon which, looking at my initial reads list would be ActionDan. If not him then probably Varsoon or I've got another one of my townreads wrong. To be honest I'm starting to think I should be looking within my initial town reads for the scum on the wagon, I'm beginning to feel Dan as town and I'm still trying to get a read on Varsoon.

Bork said I could just copy-paste this so here we go.

[Gooner]

We're in hammer range. Intent to hammer in 48 hours. I want there to at least be some discussion about other reads from more people before I hammer.

AFB, I can't really do much to dissolve a feeling other than give my reads and see what happens.

[Gooner]

I'd be content with a Kagami lynch today. Checking with bork about whether I can just copy-paste my reads list from the neighbourhood here or whether I have to re-write it.

Please let us know what the answer is.

And I agree with your suspicion of Venmar.

Yes to that post but check with bork before copy-pasting anything else. Nice though it would be to have a potential scum modkilled it kinda breaks the spirit of the game to deliberately allow it to happen.

And Venmar's not at the top of my list. Others worry me more. I'd prefer to lynch MS from that neighbourhood.

[Gooner]

I'd be content with a Kagami lynch today. Checking with bork about whether I can just copy-paste my reads list from the neighbourhood here or whether I have to re-write it.

Please let us know what the answer is.

And I agree with your suspicion of Venmar.

Yes to that post but check with bork before copy-pasting anything else.

Nice though it would be to have a potential scum modkilled

it kinda breaks the spirit of the game to deliberately allow it to happen.

And Venmar's not at the top of my list. Others worry me more. I'd prefer to lynch MS from that neighbourhood.

....????

Simple, I suspect Aegor as scum. It would be nice to have one of my scumreads modkilled but deliberately sowing confusion to allow it to happen seems to break the spirit of the game.

[Gooner]

3. I dislike Venmar more than I did initially after the Flandre flip. I expect there to be one scum nestled amongst my town reads and he seems like a likely candidate at the moment.

Why?

Flandre flipped scum and I felt Venmar's defence of Flandre could be a scum softly defending a scumbuddy without being willing to risk sticking his neck out.

[Gooner]

I dislike Kaze and Sonic most outside of this whole MafiaSSK debacle which I'm still trying to get my head around.

Kaze has been blending in a lot, not really doing things. Asking a lot of questions, a bit fence-sitty. Blending in in other words.

Sonic looks the scummiest of the other neighbourhood to me. He made a potential slip regarding three neighbourhoods and he hasn't done anything other than that.

VCA from yesterday to come.

[Gooner]

[10] Kagami (Angry Frat Bros, Venmar, mastin2, Metal Sonic, Cephrir, Kazekirimaru, macmollie,

pieguyn

, Aegor, ActionDan)
[1] Kazekirimaru (

Kagami

)
[1] Skullduggery (sangres)

[6] Not Voting (Gooner,

Cabd

, MafiaSSK, orcinus_theoriginal, Skullduggery, zMuffinMan)

2 on, 2 off seems like a solid assumption. Kaze and Sonic would be my initial thought but that means that mac and Aegor would be both be town. Not sure if I buy sangres or Skull being scum at this point. Hmm... starting to suspect that the three-player neighbourhood might be all town.

This VCA makes me feel better about Dan, he's way down the list of players I dislike on that wagon.

MafiaSSK looks like a very solid bet for scum off the wagon and the mechanics stuff adds another layer to that. Other than that we have Muffin, sangres, Skull and orcinus off the wagon. Beginning to suspect sangres/Skull is the scum in the five man neighbourhood, Muffin's always been a null read and Orcinus has moved to a null read through lack of recent content.

[Gooner]

[11] Flandre Scarlet (sangres, Cephrir, Angry Frat Bros, ActionDan, Aegor, Skullduggery, orcinus_theoriginal,

pieguyn,

Varsoon

, Gooner, macmollie)
[3] Kagami (Kazekirimaru, Venmar,

Flandre Scarlet

)
[2] Cephrir (

Kagami

, mastin2)
[2] zMuffinMan (Metal Sonic, MafiaSSK)
[1]

Cabd

(zMuffinMan)

Probably 2 on, 3 off here.

On the wagon I'm looking at the probable scum in my neighbourhood, I'm a bit confused in that regard. AFB and Ceph are reads who I'm pretty sure aren't scum so that leaves one probable scum in orcinus/Dan. If MafiaSSk is scum then Dan probably isn't scum so Orcinus probably is which would make me feel better about Skull and sangres again which would lead to me looking at Aegor/mac for scum in my neighbourhood which would lead me to suspect that the three-man neighbourhood is all town. Or Venmar's scum.

Off the wagon I'm going for MafiaSSK and Kaze as scum. If MafiaSSK isn't then MS probably is scum. If MafiaSSK is scum then probably either mastin or Muffin are.

Going back to Day One was actually quite enlightening.


Next up I'll ISO MafiaSSK.

[Gooner]

@SSK

why did you visit me on night 1?

Metal Sonic

what was that shit about 3 neighborhoods?

Reading ffery is like trying to make a virus go through a firewall. It just doesn't work. Ffery will pretty much always be my night 1 action so that I at least have some clue.

This makes me feel better about MafiaSSK being an actual Tracker.

[Gooner]

@SSK

why did you visit me on night 1?

Metal Sonic

what was that shit about 3 neighborhoods?

Reading ffery is like trying to make a virus go through a firewall. It just doesn't work. Ffery will pretty much always be my night 1 action so that I at least have some clue.

Cut that last comment, I thought it was from Day One when I read through his ISO. It's not, it's from today which nullifies my read from it.

[Gooner]

Idiot that I am I forgot that FS takes up one scum spot off the wagon. That leaves 2 on and 2 more off.

[Gooner]

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Put simply I can't see anything in his ISO which suggests he's an actual Tracker. If he had been clear about his reads I might have been able to form a viable narrative. As it is I can't and we'll gain a lot of info from an SSK lynch which I'll detail now:

If SSK is town

There is likely one scum in the three-man neighbourhood, either Sonic or Venmar, which means that Aegor and mollie are probably not scum on the wagon on Day 2 which means the scum in the other neighbourhood is either sangres or Skull. Kaze's likely scum off the wagon anyway. The other scum is then probably Dan. Not sure about SK here, I doubt an SK and a scum would be in the same neighbourhood so the potential AFB slip on Day One is irrelevant. Mastin, muffin or orcinus would be decent guesses.

If SSK is scum

The three-man neighbourhood is likely town due to my scumread on Kaze. This means one scum on the wagon on Day 2 with Kaze is likely Aegor or macmollie and they're probably the scum in the neighbourhood instead of Skull or sangres. Orcinus is likely scum instead of Dan. AFB could be an SK in a neighbourhood if not then mastin or muffin would be my picks.

So an SSK kill is a kill on a player who has a very good chance of being scum and who will give us a load of information tomorrow.

[Gooner]

thought that vca is pretty dumb since there's no real reason to assume x on, y off

Justifications for my poolings:
Day 1: I went for 2 on, 3 off because 4:1 either way makes little sense as a scum move. Scum generally spread out their votes, bunching them up isn't something they do naturally. I went for 3 off the wagon because believing only 2 scum were off the wagon would mean I would have to think that only one of Kaze, MS, Venmar, MafiaSSK, Mastin and muffin are scum. Which I don't.

Days 2 and 3: 2 on, 2 off seems more likely that 3:1 either way. 3:1 either way is possible but unlikely and I find 2:2 more likely.

[Gooner]

Prod dodge, more later today.

[Gooner]

As ever, the voting data seems a good place to start:
[11]

Flandre Scarlet

(sangres,

Cephrir

, Angry Frat Bros, ActionDan, Aegor, Skullduggery, orcinus_theoriginal,

pieguyn

,

Varsoon

, Gooner, macmollie)
[3]

Kagami

(Kazekirimaru, Venmar,

Flandre Scarlet

)
[2]

Cephrir

(

Kagami

, mastin2)
[2] zMuffinMan (Metal Sonic,

MafiaSSK

)
[1]

Cabd

(zMuffinMan)

I was pretty much prepared to go against Kaze today but Ceph turning up scum has given me pause. If we work off of the assumption there are 5 scum Kaze is likely to be scum off the wagon but with 4 scum that would mean there is no scum in either neighbourhood which I struggle to believe.

I'm thinking there's another scum on the wagon and it's the scum from the 5-man neighbourhood, who I suspect to be macmollie.

To put it simply, I know I'm town. Sangres is also almost certainly town, I doubt that a scum would target another scum. Skull I'm feeling confident is town, my Day 2 analysis yesterday suggested Skull was town if SSK was scum and SSK claiming to have targeted Skull is also noted as a point in Skull's favour but my opinion may change when I re-analyse Day 2 bearing Ceph scum in mind. I liked Aegor's push on MafiaSSK yesterday so that pretty much leaves mollie as the scum in the 5-man neighbourhood.

[Gooner]

[10] Kagami (Angry Frat Bros, Venmar, mastin2, Metal Sonic,

Cephrir

, Kazekirimaru, macmollie,

pieguyn

, Aegor, ActionDan)
[1] Kazekirimaru (

Kagami

)
[1] Skullduggery (sangres)

[6] Not Voting (Gooner,

Cabd

,

MafiaSSK

, orcinus_theoriginal, Skullduggery, zMuffinMan)

If we have 4 scum at the start I'm thinking 2 on and one off seems decent although it could be one on and two off. If it's the former then it's mac that's scum and if it's the latter it's probably Skull. Hmm... beginning to doubt my townread of Skull based off of yesterday's analysis.

If we have 5 scum at the start then probably 2 on and 2 off still seems reasonable so we likely have one more scum off the wagon as scum with SSK and one more on it. Probably either Muffin/mac (maybe orcinus actually) or Kaze/Skull as pairings.

[Gooner]

[8]

MafiaSSK

(ActionDan, Gooner,

Cephrir

, Aegor, sangres, zMuffinMan, Kazekirimaru, Skullduggery)
[3] Metal Sonic (mastin2, Venmar, Angry Frat BROs)
[1] mastin2 (macmollie)

[3] Not Voting (

MafiaSSK

, Metal Sonic, orcinus_theoriginal)

If we started the game with 4 scum then we only have one left to find which suggests mollie over Skull simply because Skull went for MafiaSSK and mollie didn't. I'm thinking more likely one on and two off than the other way around simply because scum wouldn't want to have lost half their team in three days.

Yep, overall I'm thinking VOTE: macmollie for the lynch today. If macmollie's town then we lynch Skull tomorrow.

If 5 scum Muffin/mac holds up from my Day 2 analysis while Skull/Kaze doesn't assuming another 2-2 split. I doubt scum put three on the wagon on their teammate so I'm thinking 2-2 is more likely and 3 in the smaller pool off the wagon also seems unlikely.

Yep macmollie seems like a good vote today.

[Gooner]

then lets lynch gooner! which is funny cos I was talking about him in the qt

VOTE: gooner

danny I am not sure how i feel about you

I wouldn't mind being lynched today. Town has a good advantage and it would lead directly back to you tomorrow.

[Gooner]

gooner i made that post specifically for you don't ignore

I'm not sheeping your read of mollie unless you can prevent a case why he's not scum which doesn't involve meta/Nacho magic.

[Gooner]

FUCK WHAT THE RESULTS SAY. FUCK IT BEING INCRIMINATING.

Do you think Mastin-scum would stick his neck out that far for a scumbuddy? This goes a few steps beyond not bussing.

From the player who told me Mastin's love of bussing meant that wasn't a towntell.

Was that your other head last night or did I convince you?

[Gooner]

Take a look at mollie's voting record. Last vote on FS. Earlier vote on Kagami. No vote on MafiaSSK.

Now consider the interaction between mollie and the known scum in her ISO. And mollie's general contribution to this game. Someone please explain the town mindset here.


My Kaze on case is long and well-established.

I pretty much agree with Aegor here. I don't see why so many people are townreading mollie and Kaze is definitely at the top of my list if there are 5 scum.

[Gooner]

@whoever mentioned aegor's push on ssk pointing towards aegor being town

Fair argument muffin, Aegor's back on the list of people I wouldn't mind being lynched today. At the moment that lynch is mollie or Aegor for the scum in the neighbourhood, I'm leaning mollie at the moment.

[Gooner]

Gooner, why did you give Aegor a free pass to Townsville so readily in your wagon analysis in 2365, 2366, and 2368?

To be honest I keep on flipping regarding Aegor as I read through. One moment someone points something out about him that makes me think scum then his defence is strong and I'm back to town again. Having read Aegor-AFB I'm back to town Aegor.

Macmollie is my best scumread from within the neighbourhood. Sangres is almost confirmed town. Aegor seems well engaged and is posting and arguing a lot today which I like. You're doing the same.

On the other hand mollie has been lurky, has a poor voting record and is sitting back again today and letting other people do her defending for her. She's being given a free pass by a lot of people for no reason and I dislike it, it makes me think she's scum.

[Gooner]

I don't get why every1 has gooner as town. like I really don't.

I am looking at his iso and it is shit like this:

macmollie- I disliked this slot early on simply

because it didn't seem like the way mollie normally played

. It still doesn't to be honest with you so this slot concerns me.

that fucking crawl all over me cos I am pretty sure gooner and I have not played together before so how would know what I do or do not do? I could see cephrir going over a player list and putting me as a possible easy person to tunnel but hard to lynch so as not to be incriminating with my flip. some1 told him something and since we do not run with the same crowd I srsly doubt this came from outside communication.

We've played together twice mollie.

[Gooner]

Also I might be biased, but I still want to call him scummy for the whole "I wonder if AFB SK-slipped" -> "Well no I never called you an SK, but if there IS one it might be you" -> *where the fuck did this train of thought go* was suspicious and possibly distancing from inside knowledge of him being an SK.

Nope still there, I believe I mentioned it in the Neighbourhood QT last night and at the beginning of today analysis.

And I never did call you an SK, I just said you were a player I was certainly looking at as an SK candidate.

But I'm more interested in lynching group scum today, I feel we have enough info to finish that faction off quickly before we start worrying about the SK.

[Gooner]

I was pretty much prepared to go against Kaze today but Ceph turning up scum has given me pause. If we work off of the assumption there are 5 scum Kaze is likely to be scum off the wagon but with 4 scum that would mean there is no scum in either neighbourhood which I struggle to believe.

I might be insane (help?) but this post read off to me as if he were expecting Ceph to flip town last night.

I had a townread on Ceph so Ceph dying and being scum shook my reads a little.

[Gooner]

Busy couple of days, I will get to this tomorrow.