Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Aegor]

VOTE: Skullduggery

[Aegor]

57 is not great. Also, I hate walls of text.

[Aegor]

The reasons that Cephrir mentioned in 62. The vote especially bothered me, although I must say that the giant wagon was amusing.

[Aegor]

Also, I'm going to become increasingly pissy until someone gives me a real reason for thinking Skull is town. Or you, yes you, can nip this in the bud now by telling me! Limited time offer!

Seconded. Also, why are you not voting Skull currently (or did I miss a vote somewhere?).

[Aegor]

If Kaze is scum, lynch this shit. Kaze made a similar wall, but which was much worse than Skull's wall--why'd you glaze over it, Aegor?

You and Cephrir i.a. have also made walls, but I am not voting any of you. I found Skull's wall and vote to be full of specious questions and uncompelling reasoning for what appeared to be a serious vote. The wall of text was not the problem (although I do hate them); the content was.

If Brian flips Town, I'd be more inclined to look at who

wasn't

on his wagon to find Scum since I imagine that Scum off the wagon wouldn't want to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

Why the hell not?

If Brian flips Scum, then it would make more sense to look at the early voters on his wagon to see if there were any partners who casually voted for him without realizing that it was going to turn into an L-1 wagon so quickly.

Would you count yourself among the early voters, or have you conveniently excluded yourself from both categories you recommend scrutinizing based on Brian's indefinitely future lynch?

I wouldn't have voted for Brian if I didn't think he was Scum, so I'm looking more closely at the second scenario right now. The first three people on the Brian wagon were Kaze, Pieguyn, and Flandre. Of those three, Flandre is making me the most uncomfortable. I see nothing but fluff, a naked vote, and what looks like an attempt to produce content just for the sake of producing content.

VOTE: Flandre Scarlet

Question answered. This vote is just as much of a stretch as the last. You are voting Flandre because she nakedly voted someone who

may

be scum and there is consequently a non-negligible chance that she is scum who casually voted for her partner? The game has lasted a little over a day and FS made like three posts. This vote is

horribad

.

Same question I asked Cephrir: why was my vote for Brian offensive but the other nine were perfectly okay?

They are not necessarily okay. Yours bothered me the most.

Aside from finding it "amusing" (which tells us nothing),

It tells you plenty.

what do you think of the Brian wagon?

No opinion.

Do you object to it? Do you think it was Town-driven or Scum-driven?

Probably town-driven if numbers count as driving.

[Aegor]

what do you think of the Brian wagon?

No opinion.

Really, though?

It was a flashwagon. Opinions regarding it are completely unfounded by virtue of its nature.

[Aegor]

Then I leave those opinions to those who are qualified to hold them, because my emotional and intellectual responses to Brian's wagon itself are nonexistent and did not materialize upon re-read.

[Aegor]

Not getting why pie is being scumread. Meta case is laughably awful. I like pie.

Mastin's posts are at best counterproductive.

Because that's the first place you'd look to find Scum. If you're playing hide-and-seek, do you try to hide by standing in the middle of the road or do you hide in a place where the seeker is unlikely to look?

1) Voting for a lynch with 10 people on it is hardly "standing in the middle of the road."
2) The middle of the road may be the place where the seeker is unlikely to look. It is not as if the scum on the wagon are magically identified.

If Brian flips Scum, then it would make more sense to look at the early voters on his wagon to see if there were any partners who casually voted for him without realizing that it was going to turn into an L-1 wagon so quickly.

Would you count yourself among the early voters, or have you conveniently excluded yourself from both categories you recommend scrutinizing based on Brian's indefinitely future lynch?

Are you seriously asking me whether I would consider myself to be a likely candidate when looking for Scum? Why would I do that? What purpose would that serve?

OMG. You just blatantly strawmanned me. That is not what I asked. And your attempt to hand-wave it away has not gone unnoticed. Read my question, which is quoted right here as well for your convenience.

What makes you so certain that Brian is going to be lynched in the future?

Another strawman. I never said Brian would be lynched in the future. That is what makes his lynch

indefinitely

in the future.

Question answered. This vote is just as much of a stretch as the last. You are voting Flandre because she nakedly voted someone who

may

be scum and there is consequently a non-negligible chance that she is scum who casually voted for her partner? The game has lasted a little over a day and FS made like three posts. This vote is

horribad

.

Well, you could always sit there and cry about it. That might help. Your defense of Flandre is noted, though.

Since you seem to be so convinced that Flandre isn't Scum, would you mind explaining why he's Town and why he doesn't deserve to be voted?

Voting him for being scum and voting him are two completely different acts. I never said he does not deserve to be voted and I am not saying that now. I have no read on him at the moment.

Aside from finding it "amusing" (which tells us nothing),

It tells you plenty.

It tells me nothing, actually. What should it be telling me?

That I found the wagon amusing. I have never had any other reactions or emotions to the Brian lynch. You can sit there and cry about it, I guess.

What do you think of the Brian wagon?

No opinion.

Bullshit. You said yourself in 159 that my vote for Brian

especially

bothered you, but now you suddenly have no opinion of the Brian wagon?

Your vote is not equivalent to a bandwagon, you insufferable fucktard.

How very convenient. It seems to me that you're afraid to commit to an opinion of the wagon because you might be held accountable to it later.

Then hold me accountable for my limited emotional range when appropriate, which is certainly not now. I cannot fabricate an emotional state at will.

Would it help if I said that I'm terrible at being Scum because I have the worst poker face ever or would you be more inclined to just brush that away as WIFOM? Either way, I'll go on record right now and say that if I was Scum, a substantial chunk of the player list would be Scum-reading me by now. Take it or leave it.

Seriously; is no one reading Skull's posts?

[Aegor]

I don't think you understand my metaphor. Read the explanation I gave Cephrir in 372 and then let me know if you're still confused.

I understand your metaphor completely. I simply completely reject the notion that scum would not join the wagon.

You asked whether I would count myself as a Scum candidate among the early voters on the Brian wagon. My response was, "Why the fuck would I count myself as a Scum candidate when I know that I'm not Scum?" I don't see what you're confused about.

I am not confused. My question was whether you would consider the fourth voter on a bandwagon to be among the early voters. Or whether you were identifying categories that would conveniently exclude you regardless of Brian's flip were he lynched.

By that logic, all of our lynches are indefinitely in the future. What makes Brian's so special?

That was the one I was discussing.

Again I call bullshit. No vote is cast in a vacuum. You can't say that you don't like my vote on Flandre and then cover your ass by saying that you have no opinion of Flandre.

Yes I can. I could not like your vote on Flandre and also think Flandre is scum. This is easily possible in two situations:

1) I am not 100% sure that there is only one scum faction.
2) My dislike of your vote is relatively stronger than my read of its target.

In this case, both apply.

Do I sound like I'm crying about anything? No, no I'm not. Grow up.

kk

Do you think that childish name-calling is going to make the other players

more

willing or

less

willing to listen to you? Serious question.

Do not care. Serious answer.

Do me a personal favor, would you please? Either learn how to use a semicolon correctly or don't use them at all. Thanks.

Commenting on my grammar is a losing battle for you, but I encourage you to pull at that thread if you so desire.

[Aegor]

Whoops. That's awk. All the quotations belong to Skull.

[Aegor]

awful entrance from aegor. added to the scumpile 4 sure. reasons being he didn't explain the vote probably because he didn't want to claim scum sheeping cephrir. CAUGHT.

Elaborate? I must have missed something, because I explicitly stated that my reasons for voting were along the same lines as Cephrir's in post 159.

I'll give up on getting a solid answer re aegor & kaze, I guess it's possible you just can't articulate that even though I'm certainly dubious

Did I not answer something I should have answered, or was this directed to someone else completely?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aegor

You're not off the hook yet, Flandre. I'll get back to you. I've been burned for ignoring lurker-Scum before, and I'll be damned if I let it happen again here.

Sorry if my post was offensive or what, but I remember you posted in some game that you were waaay better at looking town than catching scum, and that stuck in my head.

In fact, that's in the book. Not trying to discredit you or whatever but yeah that stuck for me when I think of you...

It's true that I'm better at looking Town than catching Scum, but that doesn't necessarily mean that I have poor Scum-hunting skills as you insisted. I'm not the best Mafia player that ever lived, but that doesn't automatically mean that I suck. Come on now.

Nevertheless, why did you feel that this was such an important point that you had to bring it up twice? What was your intention there?

Did you miss the part where he called me an insufferable fucktard for asking perfectly legitimate questions?

Lies. You tried to claim that my general indifference to the Brian wagon was mutually exclusive with my suspicion of your single vote. That is not "perfectly legitimate."

I feel like there's one scum in {Aegor, Skullduggery}

Elaborate?

Orcinus said in 521 that he was suspicious of Sangres for Town-reading him based solely on the hated claim, so I thought it would be beneficial for him to expand on the hated claim so we could see whether his suspicion of Sangres was legit or not.

Orc's reaction, however, has me thinking that his hated claim might be fake and he made it just so he could accuse the first person who asked him about it of role-fishing.

This post may be the worst one in the entire thread.

1) Claiming hated is null.
2) Why on earth would knowing more about the Hated claim tell you whether his suspicion of Sangres is legit? I want an actual answer.
3) You rolefished. No one made you. Most town players see no need to push further when someone claims Miller, Hated, etc. unless absolutely -- absolutely -- necessary.

[Aegor]

Whoops, tags messed up in the middle of the post.


Also, LOL@pieguy.

[Aegor]

Metal Sonic does your neighborhood have day talk?

I would also like to know this.

I say we lynch within the neighborhoods it will be funny

I'm down for it. If there is Scum between Metal Sonic, AFB, and Venmar, I'd probably put my money on Venmar. What do you think?

VOTE SKULLDUGG. ?????

Oh, for the love of--

Okay, Orcinus, listen to me and listen good. I'm going to make this as simple and easy-to-understand as possible.

One Day 1, without any provocation, you told us what your role is. You made an announcement in big fucking font that you were hated until Night 2. You

voluntarily

shared this information with us.

You

told us what your role is. How am I role-fishing

when you already told us what your fucking role is?

You've been frothing at the mouth calling me Scum because I inquired about something that everyone knows because

you

already told us about it.

You

made your role general knowledge. How am I Scum for asking about something that everybody in the game already knows about? This is some of the most ass-backwards logic I've ever seen in a Mafia game. Either you're Scum or you're just a delusional idiot. Which is it?

Actually, you know what? Orc's entire case on me is built upon the erroneous belief that I was role-fishing, but how can I be role-fishing if he (presumably) already told us his role? This just reinforces my belief that he was lying when he said he was hated until Night 2. He would only accuse me of role-fishing if his role is different from what he told us it was.

The only question now is why. Why would he lie about being hated until Night 2, and is this lie coming from a Town mindset or a Scum mindset? Anyone want to help me figure this out?

I will post tomorrow after reviewing some of the earlier pages.

[Aegor]

Whoops. Did not think the quotes would appear if I did quick reply. Those were posts that stuck out in the last few pages because they were so awful.

Anyway, I was going to post that I really hope this moronic rolefishing discussion is over.

@Skull

: Claiming any sort of negative utility passive role (Hated, Miller, etc.) is standard. This permits the town to decide whether a policy lynch would be appropriate and simply makes the town aware of critical info. You pushed for MORE information than was provided. We were told that Orc is hated. That is all. You were fishing for more info about the role, when Orc told us only what we needed to know. He made the right play; you rolefished needlessly. If Orc had actually told us everything about his role, there would have been no need for you to ask any questions about it. The fact that answers to your questions would have required that more information be provided by definition means you were rolefishing.

Frankly, I hope that you get vigged tonight if not lynched today because you are either scum or a lying, misrepping town. Whichever you are, you should not be alive for very long.


More tomorrow, as I said. Some of the players are running together so I need to review the early game.

[Aegor]

Both mastin and muffin get added to my desired-vig list. I think mastin is scummier than zmuffin, which surprised me when I re-read. The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes. None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

That MafiaSSK has managed to lurk this much is distressing. I am awaiting a kick-ass post after the prod.

Kaze's posts were really bad upon re-read. We are treated to walls like 262 and 363, which have tons of fluff and specious questions ("Why are you self-voting, Brian?"). None of the questions -- even the decent ones -- appear to lead to concrete reads or cases; the answers provided almost seem irrelevant to anything Kaze posts next. Then we have 298, which correctly calls mastin out, then a series of superficially townish yet insubstantial and useless rhetorical questions wavering. Hammy and forced, especially given the succinct nature of most of his other posts. Voting record is also spotty -- early Brian vote is fine, but then he votes mastin. Then he switches to pie with this terrible and useless post. No real explanation. I have no problem with wagon-hopping, but town players at least accompany or justify it with some sort of information acquisition from those wagons. That really has not happened, and Kaze has not scumhunted anywhere else either.

VOTE: Kaze

[Aegor]

Aegor, why do you have zero trajectory on that Kaze vote.

Because there was zero trajectory on the vote.

[Aegor]

Sorry. I have been loosely following this game but am now caught up.

muffin's IC claim was stupid but null.

mastin2- Not scum, nor am I surprised you have a hunch(ish) about who I am. That being said, there are other plays I'm shocked have not let on an idea of my main.

sangres- Brilliant vote, I must say. In the spirit of naked votes, I raise you one:

VOTE: Aegor

ActionDan- Is this the part where we sing a duet of A whole new world or Hakuna Matata?

Brian Skies- Using intentional ragequits is a bannable offense I believe.

Presumably your Aegor vote has something to do with his weird Kaze vote, and yet here you are making a weird vote?

@FS

: Why the vote?

@Cephrir

: Why was my Kaze vote weird? I explained it thoroughly. Few other players can say the same about their votes. I would much rather see more cases that can lead to incisive questions than pages of inane blather (q.v. the last ten pages) with few votes other than those supported by vague "meta" and "gut" and "POE."

@Cabd - What? He's scum for having terrible views in your point of view? That's like one of the worst/fakest reasons I have ever heard for a scumread.

That is such a strawman. Regardless of whether the reads are good or not, do you find someone who consistently refuses to explain or justify anything anti-town at best?

Town:
Kaze- Has weird tone/wording sometimes, but what he is actually saying seems pretty town

if I don't think too hard about the ways he says it

.

Uh....

???:
Aegor- I'm pretty sure I have touched on when I felt he was weird and possibly WKing me/trying to create a TvT in places. Hate the left field Kaze vote. On the other hand, did some things I thought were town early on.

I do not know how to make this clearer: the vote was not out of left field. I re-read the entire game all at once and Kaze, when considered all at once over the course of the game rather than incrementally (as new posts are written in real time) really rubbed me the wrong way. Is forming new opinions after a re-read not a thing for you?

Scummy:
Mollie- I have never seen you be scum but this doesn't seem in character. Feel like I should not be the only one worried about this, but apparently I am. Weird free pass from mastin who is probably scum.
AFB- I am trying to get around my inherent bias because of them tunneling me but it's not working. Everyone else seems to think they are obvtown but I don't get it. Honestly sounds a lot like Scumrir, and I'm sort of done with the 'Scumrir-esque players are town' mindset I used to have because it keeps being wrong.
Flandre- Just all around sucks every single post. Has not done anything town whatsoever.

Agreed with both of these.

Everyone list your top 4 and we wagon the highest count person?

Kaze, FS, piratemollie, mastin

[Aegor]

By the way, Muffin's still scum, guys. Just thought I'd say so because the wagon only has 2 votes and it's disappointing.

Why? Because he fake-claimed IC? How does that chain of reasoning even make sense?

As for the Mastin pressure question, Mastin just seems town. We just get each other. So I was curious as to how people had felt he was scum when he's so obviously not to me.

Or he's playing you. Or you're playing him. Or you're both scum. And since you refuse to post anything other than vague one-liners, you are not helping anyone figure out the truth, which may be that you are both town. Right now you are simply a waste of space.

[Aegor]

If you and I have only played two games together and you act completely different in the second game than you did in the first, is it folly for me to draw conclusions from that?

YES.

Should I be looking at every game you've ever played before I can consider myself informed?

YES, and maybe not even then.

So your magnificent plan would be to manipulate the other players by intentionally acting scummy so you can gather votes and then yell "Gotcha!" while analyzing the wagon to see who was voting for a player who was acting scummy. And that will help you separate the Town players from the Scum players...how, exactly? Because only Scum players swing for low-hanging fruit? Because Town players never try to lynch the scummiest player first?

1) Playing scummily and having people vote you for playing scummily are very different
2) Even reasonable wagons can yield nice info

The plan sounds very reasonable.



Why does Kaze not have more votes?

[Aegor]

So? Your "plan" was what any reasonable IC would do if he were not brain-dead. Giving you towncred for a total hypothetical with an optimal strategy is like giving you towncred for telling us to lynch scummy players.

[Aegor]

You seem to have a majority, you could run me up to L-1 like nothing. Yet, a wagon hasn't actually happened. Why do you think? I have my own suspicions as to the reason.

People are reluctant to wagon or even vote lurky players.

[Aegor]

ISOd MS. Would only vote to avoid a no lynch. Not at all helpful but not really scummy either (unless active lurking counts as scummy).

Aegor, if you think Kaze is Scum, why did you butt in and answer the questions that I asked him (questions that were not addressed to you, might I add) in 1155?

I did not butt in. Kaze had already answered those questions in post 1153, so I did not spoil anything. And they were larger gameplay questions and worth answering in their own right.

Pointing out how reasonable his explanations are isn't exactly something you do to a player you're trying to lynch.

He was correct about one hypothetical scenario. Acknowledging that is not "pointing out how reasonable his explanations are."

And when they do, certain players try to shake the wagon apart by attacking the votes on it. For added bonus points, see if you can guess who I'm talking about!

Need a hint?

Spoiler:

It's you.

Give up?

Spoiler:

It's you.

Your vote deserved to be attacked. It was terrible. I did not attempt to "shake the wagon apart;" I simply stated the obvious. I have nothing against an FS wagon at all.

[Aegor]

That is what left field is. I might alter my opinions somewhat after mass-ISOing, but I also can't imagine myself feeling like I need to do that so early in the game.

Left field would be a naked vote with no trajectory. I explained why mine was made. I had almost no reads on anyone and was not following the game closely. I reached the obvious solution of re-reading the game.

Why does Kaze not have more votes?

Because he is scummy.


VOTE: Flandre Scarlet

[Aegor]

Here you are calling it reasonable twice:

1) Playing scummily and having people vote you for playing scummily are very different
2) Even reasonable wagons can yield nice info

The plan sounds very reasonable.

Your statements are stupid and your posts are stupid and you have no critical thinking ability or reading comprehension, which quite surprises me given your alleged education.

Kaze was presenting a hypothetical situation, akin to a dilemma or some gambit. He then explained an objectively advisable course of action. I simply acknowledged -- with complete, impersonal detachment -- that his analysis of a hypothetical situation was correct. These situations are akin to a logic problem. If I thought Kaze was scum, would I be forced to find his assertion that 2+2=4 is unreasonable? I am actually terrified of what your answer is, so feel free to consider this rhetorical.

Did I ever suggest he was not scummy? No. Did I ever suggest that I found his explanations for his behavior reasonable? No. So STFU.

Do you always try to drown out your stances in arguments over semantics or is that only something you do when you draw Scum?

My stances are explicit and clear. Nice try.

If you think that my initial Flandre vote was terrible, you're more than welcome to be wrong about that. I won't hold it against you. What I want to know is why you would attack a vote that you agree with.

See post 316. See also post 439 and post 451.

What was the intention there? What was the desired result of this attack? Were you just stirring the pot to see what would happen? Because right now all I see is this:

Step 1: Attack vote on Flandre despite (supposedly) having no objections to Flandre getting votes.
Step 2: ?????
Step 3: PROFIT!

Catch scum...duh. Are we even playing the same game?

AFB seems convinced that you're Town, Aegor, and I'd love to be able to trust his judgment on this, but I am having such a difficult time overlooking all the illogical things that you say.

Being illogical has

never

been my problem. I suggest you pick up a formal logic textbook.

[Aegor]

People I would be fine lynching:

Kaze
FS
Skull on a policy basis

MS and Kagami are basically interchangeable in that they are actively lurking hardcore. Would be willing to lynch either to avoid a no lynch.

Feeling increasingly iffy about Cephrir, whose questions are increasingly spurious and do not lead anywhere, much like Kaze's posts. Probably would be willing to lynch him too.

[Aegor]

cabd, why did you stop the FS wagon?

[Aegor]

cabd, why did you stop the FS wagon?

This is a really dumb question given I explained it in the very same set of posts.

No, you did not. My question is why you did not let the lynch play out. Unvoting because someone would be dumb enough to hammer does not tell me why you would be concerned with someone hammering in the first place.

[Aegor]

Hammering without a claim on day one of a large is so fucking stupid, I refuse to believe you think it's a good idea.

Would you mind pointing me in the direction of FS's claim? I do not remember it. Or are you saying that the wagon disintegrated without a claim, with your unvote leading it?

[Aegor]

Flandere sits at L-1; varsoon tells MS, who is NOT on the wagon, to hammer. I know MS is stupid enough to quickhammer without giving Flandere the time to claim shit, I unvote.

IF I HIT MY HEAD AGAINST THE WALL ANY MORE IT IS GOING TO BREAK HELP

That is not my point. You said that you unvoted in order to avoid a derphammer and to avoid a lynch with no claim. Yet in that post, you did not actually ask for a claim or express intent to continue forward with the FS lynch. And you never subsequently asked for a claim or seemed to care at all that the wagon disappeared.

[Aegor]

Why? Is this karma for Mini 1531? Why do I have to deal with so much stupidity about this? Do I need to show you the games where players like metal sonic have fucked EVERYTHING up for you to understand what I did and why? Would that help? Because this is common fucking sense.

Cabd, you are missing the point entirely. My issue is not that you unvoted. It is that I cannot reconcile the mindset of someone who wants to lynch scum and is willing to lynch FS but wants a claim with your unvote post and subsequent posts, none of which even mention a claim or strong conviction or thoughts on the FS wagon at all.

If you actually unvoted because you did not want a lynch without a claim, why did you not state a desire for a claim in the same post you unvoted? Why not vote FS again now?

[Aegor]

VOTE: Kagami; this is L-1.

Also, it's not that both are scum. Both

could

be scum. It's

possible

neither are, too. (Just not particularly probable.) It's just that, individually, they're the two players most likely to be responsible for the kill.

This is certainly a far cry from the vehemence and confidence you exhibited Day 1.

Aegor, Skullduggery, Gooner.

We didn't discuss outing this. But, I think it needs to be done.

Confirming this.

Why would Flandre, in an act of survivalism, add momentum to a counter-wagon

on his own partner

when he could have just as easily joined the equally viable Metal Sonic, Muffin, or Mastin wagons?

In case you missed AFB's post, distancing.

As for Metal Sonic, I think he's Town because of an observation I had during the Night phase. Remember how Metal Sonic repeatedly asked who Flandre's main account was during Day 1? If Metal Sonic and Flandre were both Scum, don't you think that this was a question that he would have asked Flandre during the pre-game? There are three possibilities:
1.) Metal Sonic is Town.
2.) Metal Sonic is Scum and the Scum team didn't have pre-game talk for whatever reason.
3.) Metal Sonic is Scum and he kept asking about Flandre's identity just to throw us off.

The first possibility seems like the most likely to me.

Agree completely with this.

Spoiler: Kagami

I'm concerned about the absence of a counter-wagon

Soft defending of Flandre.

I don't think all the scum would be on-board this as a bus if Flandre is scum, and I think they would be pushing an alternative wagon in the hopes for a mislynch rather than a scum-lynch. The lack of a counter-wagon suggests to me that they are happy with the current lynch.

I view the FS lynch as policy. She has certainly done just about nothing, but she's hardly the only one. The scummiest thing flandre has done so far is to refuse to divulge her main account; but I think that's just as likely anti-town town behavior as anti-town scum behavior. The appeal to "survivalism" is also kind of bad, but falls in the same category, imo. Still not a bad lynch, just a not bad policy lynch.

Really shallow wagon analysis, once again casting doubt on the Flandre lynch.

What is particularly disconcerting is that while no counter-wagon formed, Kagami was still attempting to slow and possibly eventually redirect the lynch. At the least we know that scum did not push an alternative wagon and was at best indifferent or oblivious to the lynch.

(Every post after this one needs to contain a vote for Kagami)

So why do you need to rush this so fast? Don't you think with all the suspicion on me from day one that there's likely to be an investigation on me? You don't feel like waiting for it?

LOL. You are not at L-1. Please.

I don't know what my scum-game would look like, but it's most likely going to involve more focus on the game's events rather than less.

Like when you started pointing out the lack of counterwagon on FS instead of actually suggesting new lynches? The rest of your posts except your Ceph vote were noncommittal and very bland, even when voting.

From the same post:

Flandre's naked vote is not scummy, imo.

Now, this leads to interesting associative results, especially with respect to Kaze:

Spoiler:

That said, anyone else want to wagon ScumKagami with me? Last chance.

I'll also accept MS. I really don't want to see that guy make it to LyLo at any rate.

Really. This FS wagon feels meh and I'm not the hugest fan of compromise.

I really wish I had picked up on your scent earlier so I could do my hypertunnel-the-gut-scumread thing.

In fact, screw this noise.

VOTE: Kagami

Suffer not for the Kagami to live.

Given Flandre's flip and the relationship between Kaze and Kagami, I would say there is no way both are scum. So if Kagami is scum, Kaze is totally cleared. It makes no sense for scum to derail a scum wagon in favor of a different scum wagon. If Kagami is town, then Kaze's view of the FS wagon as "meh" and attempt to wagon Kagami look worse.

Also interesting to me are Venmar's post 1311 and post 1496, which constitute one of the few attempts to question the FS wagon at all. They very well could be nothing, but look mildly worse if Kagami is scum.

The only other bizarre thing to me was muffin voting cabd out of nowhere in post 1354, but it does not really feel like an attempt to derail.

[Aegor]

So if Kagami is scum, Kaze is totally cleared. It makes no sense for scum to derail a scum wagon in favor of a different scum wagon.

and post 1496, which constitute one of the few attempts to question the FS wagon at all. They very well could be nothing, but look mildly worse if Kagami is scum.

Post: 1496 for ref:

Ok,

Vote:Kagami

Thanks for the catch. I meant if Kagami is town, following similar reasoning as Kaze.

[Aegor]

I'd be content with a Kagami lynch today. Checking with bork about whether I can just copy-paste my reads list from the neighbourhood here or whether I have to re-write it.

Please let us know what the answer is.

And I agree with your suspicion of Venmar.

[Aegor]

In other news, I think Kaze is noticeably scummier given Kagami's flip.

Yes.

VOTE: Kaze, for the reasons mentioned in post 1693.

[Aegor]

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Spoiler:

Supports FS wagon but never votes and questions a vote on it.

In all seriousness, I'm down for this Flandre wagon. So yeah.

Pieguyn, what's your reasoning for the Flandre vote?

Kaze remains a great lynch.

[Aegor]

Sangres, do you guys have a read on metal sonic other than telling me to go look it up.

The neighborhood question needs a good, solid answer IMO.

actually, changed my mind.

VOTE: Metal Sonic

This could nail the handwritten notes tell.

I am really not understanding this at all. Do you have any reason for suspecting MS beyond a potential third neighborhood slip? What about MS's answer was unsatisfactory?

[Aegor]

o wait

Unvote
Vote: Metal Sonic

you win this time, nacho

Are you serious? MafiaSSK is very obviously scum.

[Aegor]

VOTE: Kaze

[Aegor]

I had a townread on Aegor, but need to look back on that.

^ This.

Im not sure why I was townreading Aegor or why I stopped, but I don't feel extremely great about him. Feels like hes just along for the ride I guess and not really exploring avenues of interest.

Are you serious? ISO me. I voted Kaze Day1 and got flack for the vote "coming out of nowhere" and being totally random even though my post had a thorough explanation of my vote. I was one of the few to actually comment seriously on Kagami's posting history and look at associative tells. My posts in my neighborhood are the same. had links to Which is it? Are my votes out of left field and "bizarre," or are they products of my being "just along for the ride?" They certainly cannot be both.

SSK being town requires the nightkill to have disappeared some other way.

ninja, the scum targeted pieguy for the lolz (possible given 2 anti-town kills?), I don't know but Im paranoid and Im gonna waffle anyways? I dont see why SSK would be making the maf kill? could be SK I guess.

The scum did not necessarily target pie. Pie could have died defending someone else who was targeted. His bulletproof could have disappeared N1 when he guarded sangres.

What I'm wondering is, why did pie die instead of sangres last night?

Why would sangres die? Do you know something I do not?

Cabd I get, but the other kill looks odd to me. pie was essentially a VT after the save, and killing him only really served to help validate the "someone NK-targeted sangres N1" theory(especially since pie was 1-shot bulletproof). Killing sangres would have left us with pie, SSK, and Dan alive to duke it out and cause more chaos today, which sounds like a better position for any anti-town role to hide in.

You are still assuming that pie was targeted. How on earth do you justify that assumption?

What I'm wondering is, why did pie die instead of sangres last night?

Simple answer: Because Pie protected Sangres again???????????????????

Still not getting why we are assuming that sangres was targeted again.

I WAS WONDERING IF HOW PIE'S ROLE WORKED AND IF HE WAS SHOT N1 BUT THE BULLETPROOF PROTECTED HIM AND THEN HE SAVED SOME1 LAST NIGHT WHOM SCUM TARGETED IS THAT NOT HOW THAT ROLE WORKS

[Aegor]

^MACMOLLIE'S EXPLANATION SEEMS TO ME TO BE THE MOST LIKELY ONE. I THINK PIE WAS PROBABLY NOT DIRECTLY KILLED.

[Aegor]

You are still assuming that pie was targeted. How on earth do you justify that assumption?

Confusion.

But you are unjustifiably ignoring the other reasonable scenarios, i.e. those in which pie died but was not targeted.

[Aegor]

What's your take of the situation as it is?

My take is that either you or MafiaSSK dies today. And honestly, mastin's reluctance to lynch SSK makes me want to lynch SSK more. I will probably move my vote soon.

I don't give a damn what the role evidence says. I'm sticking by that judgment. This feels wrong. Everyone's interactions with him.

Please explain why we should collectively ignore evidence in favor of your nebulous and ill-supported "judgments" and "feelings."

...The serial killer has made it clear that they're killing town. Intentionally. If they killed town accidentally, sure. Mercy. If they killed scum, sure. Mercy. But they didn't. They aimed for either obvtown players or conftown players. They're scum. Just scum that doesn't have scumbuddies...

While I am indifferent about "leashing" the hypothetical SK (I am not sure I even know what that means), that reasoning makes no sense. If the SK killed Cabd, then you are correct. If the SK targeted pie, then you are still correct. But if the SK targeted someone guarded by pie, then you are not necessarily correct. There is a suppressed premise in your argument that pie would target someone who is obvtown. And yet pie may have targeted someone he felt was town and the SK targeted that same person thinking he was scum.

Therefore NKA is dumb. Let us move on plz.

[Aegor]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p5687313]...Because I said so?

Not good enough.

Yet we

do

know the N1 target of pie was sangres. Pie's actions on N2 may not be known, but it's a probability that he'd protect someone widely or even universally townread, like sangres.

But that is not guaranteed. And I would not say that there are very many universal townreads. Nor is there any guarantee whatsoever that pie guarded someone YOU consider a universal townread.

Thus, my comment: outside the incredible improbability of pie-protecting-vig-bait, the serial killer killed town, KNOWING they were killing town. Yes, it's possible that pie protected, saaaaaaaay, Metal Sonic. But it's such a damn unlikely scenario it's practically impossible. The serial killer has been aiming for town. Period.

Whatever. Agree to disagree. As long as we are lynching scum.

[Aegor]

SSK is Scum.

Mastin is the Serial Killer.

We're probably looking at a four-person Scum team, so there's two more Scum in {Aegor, Kaze, Orcinus, Macmollie, Gooner}

Everyone else is Town.

Could you please explain how the hell you are getting these reads? Beyond SSK, because the justification is obvious. And yes, I have ISOd and found no concrete explanations.

Also, with 15 players alive, do you find it odd at all that three of your top five scum suspects are in your five-person neighborhood? And that you have included in your scum list every single person in your neighborhood who is neither you nor the living player closest to conftown? It seems like you have lost perspective a little bit.

That being said, we have overlap in our scum lists but I want to hear your own reasons first.

[Aegor]

VOTE: MafiaSSK

L-1

[Aegor]

HAMMER

[Aegor]

Process of elimination, mostly. I have Town reads (of varying strengths) on everyone except for SSK, Mastin, and the five I mentioned in 2164 (Aegor, Kaze, Orcinus, Macmollie, Gooner).

k.

I don't find it odd. Do you think everyone in our neighborhood is Town?

You should find it odd. And you should also realize that your question is a straw man. Think about it.

[Aegor]

VOTE: sangres

WTF?

[Aegor]

What are the chances of 1 scum in your neighborhood and 1 in mine? Right now it seems absurdly dumb to assume both neighborhoods are full of town.

I think there is certainly at least one scum in my neighborhood.

Our neighborhood made a lot of posts on night 1. Night 2 not nearly so much. Also, on night 1, someone deleted their post in the neighborhood. afaik no one saw it prior to deletion. And no one owned up to it. Bork made it abundantly clear afterwards that deleting or editing QT posts is a modkillable offense.

That deletion makes me even more nervous about my neighborhood. I feel pretty sure there's at least one scum player in it.

That's almost a confirmation that there's a scum in that neighborhood. I can't imagine why someone would not own up to that.

Fo' shizzle; we really should be looking in my 'hood if all of us are alive tomorrow, which could be the result of a scum killing strategy in itself. For the record, Skull posted ten minutes prior to the deleted post. sangres posted fifteen minutes after the deleted post, and I posted after that.

[Aegor]

Can we please just lynch MafiaSSK or move on to someone else? I do not like prolonging a lynch-that-won't-be.

Kaze is another good lynch. I have a few others in mind as well.

[Aegor]

Not that you are biased or anything.

[Aegor]

WTF? He already claimed.

[Aegor]

Why would flavor claim matter?

Why is a maf Tracker so absurd?

Why is SSK still alive?

[Aegor]

I don't know why I hate the above post so very much.

Try to figure out and tell us.

[Aegor]

I am here. Was busy modding my game. Will respond.

[Aegor]

Please help me understand how any of this discussion makes any sense at all. In my 'hood, I think gooner and sangres are town. Skull is leaning town at this point, unless there is distancing that does not feel like distancing. mollie is by far the best scum candidate.

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Aegor has said somethings that look really explicitly scummy and I have a hard time seeing some of his thought process from town.

You can keep saying that, but that does not make it true.

Both mastin and muffin get added to my desired-vig list. I think mastin is scummier than zmuffin, which surprised me when I re-read. The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes. None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

That MafiaSSK has managed to lurk this much is distressing. I am awaiting a kick-ass post after the prod.

This in particular seemed sketchy to me. There are other things.

Calling mafiaSSK out on being sketch, supporting an FS lynch around this time (but not SSK?) and not wanting either of them vigged.

1) Lynch scummy people. Vig useless people that could be scum. Hence the split. Plus the vig thing is facetious; cf. my similar posts in other games.
2) I called out MafiaSSK on being lurky. FS attracted my attention more, as did Kaze. I am sorry that I am not able to balance all 15+ players as well as other people.
3) Assume I am scum. Now tell me what my strategy is and how my posts are reconcilable with that strategy.



We should be looking at mollie, Kaze or within the 3-person neighborhood today.

[Aegor]

Take a look at mollie's voting record. Last vote on FS. Earlier vote on Kagami. No vote on MafiaSSK.

Now consider the interaction between mollie and the known scum in her ISO. And mollie's general contribution to this game. Someone please explain the town mindset here.


My Kaze on case is long and well-established.

[Aegor]

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Well there is likely 1 mafia and 1 SK left, so you tell me where you think those are divided up among the 3:5:5 still alive.

I think there is one maf in my neighborhood and I think it is mollie. I have not actually played with an SK before so that will be more difficult until I do some more research on theory and other games with competent SKs.

[Aegor]

IDK, I think mollie's poor voting record most likely comes from town who doesn't know what its doing than scum intentionally avoiding bussing.

I find it funny that you are trying to point to a lack of town motivation here (when its just derp-motivated) instead of arguing that is just likely scum-motivated.

Something cannot be derp-motivated. It is either town or anti-town in motivation; whether it is stupid is a different question.

Explain why I should think mollie is an unlucky idiot, because that is what you are asking.

And then explain why I am more likely scum.

[Aegor]

AFB, bad voting records frequently happen. But voting records are often revealing when the actual votes are considered in more detail.

Spoiler:

mollie had occasional reads throughout Day 1. A naked vote for me in post 440 is followed by a justification much later:

awful entrance from aegor. added to the scumpile 4 sure. reasons being he didn't explain the vote probably because he didn't want to claim scum sheeping cephrir. CAUGHT.

We have a strong scumread on Kaze in post 1167 with no vote. Mollie states intent to hammer FS in post 1282 without commenting on the wagon. Her play for the entire day thus far has IMO been reactionary and half-hearted. Moreover, despite having apparently strong eads, she never actually pushes for me or Kaze. She is more than willing to go with the flow, but only actually hammers FS in post 1542, with hella posts in between. This is anticipated by her ambivalence as expressed in post 1283. Post 1400 includes a read list that has Cephrir as town and mafiaSSK as emphatic town!. Explicitly sheeps AFB in post 1670 and votes Kagami, which she later says is a result of a perceived crumb by AFB. No scumhunting at all. Then comes her incredibly bizarre case on mastin because of his position on leashing the SK, which coincidentally occurred at the height of MafiaSSK wagon. She does not actually comment on the SSK wagon at all, and of course is not on it by the end of the day.

It is not just the reads, which have been proven terrible. It is the utter lack of commitment to any case and chronically nonexistent scumhunting. It is the lack of comment on the first wagon until asked and on the second at all. It is the attempt to direct interest away from SSK and onto mastin.

So when you say things like this:

Even still I wouldn't call that "interactions" since that really just boils down to the same thing as your first point that her reads were subpar.

I am trying to suppress my anger, given that I more than any other player in this game has presented transparent and reasoned cases against those players I find especially lynch-worthy and you have done jack shit to justify your suspicion of me while blasting me for being "cryptic" and "dubious." I am actually kind of offended.

Now, why are you calling Mollie out specifically here when you ALSO in your SAME POST said you'd rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood?

I never said I would rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood.

Was there anyone in particular neighborhood hunting or are you just having your cake and eating it too by dissuading people from looking at your group and simultaneously casing on mollie?

Neither, since I have no problem with someone in my neighborhood being lynched.

Same for mastin. Hopped off the FS wagon blatantly when CWs were happening, adamant about SSK town, early vote on Kagami. THAT voting record is worse than mollies yet you are voting mollie.

I would also be fine lynching mastin, as anyone in my 'hood can confirm. I would actually rather lynch mastin than anyone in the three-person neighborhood, but if people are insistent on the neighborhoods, which I actually oppose, mastin is out of reach. And mollie's post 2375, clearly an attempt to direct attention, felt off. Especially given that there is no trajectory beyond a one-line assertion that Gooner is scum in our 'hood QT last night.

[Aegor]

@whoever mentioned aegor's push on ssk pointing towards aegor being town

aegor didn't push ssk all that hard...
what i don't like about this is the unnatural progression. his reasoning for voting ssk was meh but he seemed convinced that mafiassk was "very obviously scum" (the second quote there is the most unnatural part of this i think)

How is that suspicious? MafiaSSK was very obviously scum. And guess what? He flipped scum. My reasoning for voting SSK -- his position on the FS wagon in addition to the N1 shenanigans -- was more solid than ANYTHING ANYONE had presented on anyone else that day.

- but then dropped it and voted kaze before:...
it looked like bussing a sinking ship

You are being so shitty right now. I had been suspicious of Kaze since Day 1. I was perfectly willing to lynch either of Kaze or MafiaSSK, as I stated in post 2028:

VOTE: MafiaSSK...
Kaze remains a great lynch.

I had voted Kaze earlier in post 2019. The Kaze vote is explained in post 2132. In post 2144 I repeat my desire either for a Kaze or MafiaSSK lynch:

My take is that either you or MafiaSSK dies today.

And honestly, mastin's reluctance to lynch SSK makes me want to lynch SSK more. I will probably move my vote soon

.

My vote switch is completely anticipated, yet you ignore the trajectory completely to make your case. In that same post, I resist mastin's attempt to clear SSK.

Could you please explain how the hell it makes sense for me to push a bus through on my buddy after another player has presented me with a big-ass opening?

You also conveniently ignore my order that someone hammer in post 2211, repeated again in post 2311, not to mention my insistence that SSK could be a Maf Tracker in post 2328.

[Aegor]

I am liking Skull's posts more and more. Will review claims made therein.

[Aegor]

Ascetic reflexively RB's actions targeting them, yeah?

Anyone have their ability inexplicably fail lately?

What purpose does this question serve? We already know that Cephrir was an Ascetic.

I want a response to this question from Kaze.

I am liking Skull's posts more and more. Will review claims made therein.

really because post 2472 was terrible.

2473 was not. And 2472 had some merit. Which is more than I can say for Skull's earlier posts.

yours and gooner's push is pretty terrible and based on some dumb retarded idea you have about poe

FUCK YOUR POE YOU ARE WRONG VERY WRONG AND EVEN MORE WRONG THAN THAT

My case on you is emphatically not PoE. I know this because I spent a long time writing a post that you and everyone else just ignored. You are straight-up lying. At no point did PoE lead me to you.

AND, I told you why my participation is spotty AND YET YOU ARE ACTING AS IF I DIDN'T SAY A THING. I have a town mindset cos gee I dunno I am town how about you explain the scum mindset? I bet you can't cos you are reaching for the moon.

I never said you said nothing about your spotty participation. But I am not going to ignore it just because you acknowledge it. That is so dumb I cannot even believe you would feel comfortable stating it out loud. So all anyone has to do is acknowledge bad play and a free pass is given?

Can we just lynch backpedaling, "but you can't PROVE that I rolled mafia" players today?:

If

we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players?

We should be looking at mollie, Kaze or within the 3-person neighborhood today.

I never said I would rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood.

--
^^ - Backpedaling

Read better, foo'. Conditionals are an integral part of the English language. If we want to lynch within a neighborhood, the 3-person neighborhood obviously provides better odds unless there are independently strong scumreads in the larger one, in which case the fact that we are lynching within a neighborhood is irrelevant. I forgot to list mastin among my lynches in that post, but I would be more than happy to lynch her too.

"But you can't PROVE that I rolled scum in this game"

We both know that is a gross misrepresentation of my defense. For you to reduce it to that is just rude. It is not at all unreasonable for you to explain how my play is rational as scum. And the fact that you have not tells me loads.

You're not off the hook yet, Flandre. I'll get back to you. I've been burned for ignoring lurker-Scum before, and I'll be damned if I let it happen again here.

scum.

fire.

die.

lynch.

I must say that I am relishing the next sentence.

*breathes in* I never said that; Skull did in post 537:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aegor
You're not off the hook yet, Flandre. I'll get back to you. I've been burned for ignoring lurker-Scum before, and I'll be damned if I let it happen again here.

My quote tags messed up in the post you quoted.

3) Assume I am scum. Now tell me what my strategy is and how my posts are reconcilable with that strategy.

-Distance from buddies Flandre and MafiaSSK by calling them lurkers and suspicious
-Attempt to mislynch Skull by making case walls on her.
-Point out scummy thing that mastin has done to make people interested in lynching him instead of your lurker buddies.

Skull was never close to a lynch on Day 1 and there is no way that you can justifiably claim I was actively pushing for her lynch by the end of Day 1. I hate all lurkers; Meta me. I just lost a game (as town) because I lynched a lurker in lylo (I did think he was scum, to be fair to myself).

Day 3 is obviously not explicable as distancing; see my response to muffin's post for more detail. And have I ever pushed hard for mastin's lynch? No. Have I ever distracted the town via mastin? No. You must be thinking of mollie, who did exactly that yesterday. Yet you completely ignored my big-ass post that explained that.

"But you can't PROVE that Im scum"

That is so unfair and so wrong on so many levels.

Both mastin and muffin get added to my desired-vig list. I think mastin is scummier than zmuffin, which surprised me when I re-read. The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes. None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

Calling mafiaSSK out on being sketch, supporting an FS lynch around this time (but not SSK?) and not wanting either of them vigged.

1) Lynch scummy people. Vig useless people that could be scum. Hence the split. Plus the vig thing is facetious; cf. my similar posts in other games.
Backpedaling

No backpedaling. You are just assuming I am lying. Why waste information-yielding lynches on policies and VIs when they can be safely vigged?

[Aegor]

Why are you making the assumption that both neighborhoods have scum?

I never did. Why do you keep asking me why I believe things that I do not believe?

No I'm gonna back up my hydra partner on this one.

Stupid motivation is one of the four motivations.

Along with town, scum, and personal. It's sort of like the 4 forces in physics.

Force =/= motivation. Unless someone is attempting to be stupid, they do not have stupid motivation. Stupid people can still want to help town or want to help scum, which are the actual motivations.

[Aegor]

my issue with this is how unnatural it felt. the justification for the vote on mafiassk felt like, "hey i need to figure out some original reason for pushing mafiassk so it doesn't look like bussing!"

So I should just vote people with no explanation because any attempt to strengthen a read using other reasoning could be considered "figuring out some original reason so it does not look like bussing?" That is a great precedent to set, right there.

and the conviction here - that mafiassk was "very obviously scum" felt like putting on airs because, really, i thought he was scum

after

i assessed his claim and thought about possibilities, but even i wasn't sure he was very obviously scum. what's more, if he was very obviously scum, the vote on kaze doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

Of course it does. Kaze should also die. I would rather Kaze have died. But SSK was fine too. And guess what? I was right.

819 and 1693 are the only real cases you've put forth against kaze and at no point in the game have you suggested he is very obviously scum or anything like that. which makes me think the mafiassk conviction is because you knew he's scum and the lack of conviction with kaze is because you're scum pushing a mislynch

k. Then lynch Kaze and lynch me tomorrow if he is town. The suggestion that I was bussing SSK is patently absurd. I would have just ridden the wagon; it made no sense whatsoever for me to repeatedly call for his timely death.

because the mafiassk lynch was likely happening with or without you - you did very little to push it through (i don't think anyone even really acknowledged what you said about him) whereas the kaze lynch wasn't happening <- this doesn't necessarily mean you are definitely scum, but there is plenty of scum motivation in bussing here for whatever town cred it was worth (and some people seem to think it was worth some town cred)

My posts were hardly subtle. In no way am I claiming credit for pushing the lynch through, but after riding the FS wagon, why would I not just ride the SSK one out? Why post in response to mastin instead of letting his defense play out and see what happens? My vote is already on SSK; I could have just posted nothing.

This entire line of reasoning makes zero sense.

yes i ignored all posts after cephrir's bus vote because, if you are scum with cephrir, that would be the point where it was obviously scum's plan to bus

Convenient.

but honestly, those posts aren't impressive anyway - and no, you didn't "insist" ssk could be a mafia tracker, you questioned someone saying a mafia tracker was unlikely (well after i put forward the idea); i suppose you could argue this is because you thought he was a mafia tracker, but you never stated this as an opinion iirc

The fact that I voted SSK, never questioned his tracker claim, and then asked a rhetorical question about his being a maf tracker in the same post in which I asked a rhetorical question about why he is still alive constitutes an opinion that he is a maf tracker.

[Aegor]

@aegor,

i wasn't saying that people who add additional reasoning are scummy - just that the way in which you did it felt like scum who thought it was necessary to tack on additional reasoning to look more town or something. it didn't feel natural.

Great, so you feel like it was off. What a great way to not have to justify anything that you say.

and saying "of course it does" doesn't explain why you thought mafiassk was so "very obviously scum" - because i don't think (given the reasoning you put forth) he was very obviously scum, which is why i don't believe the conviction there was genuine. mafiassk flipping scum is the REASON i think the conviction was unnatural soooooo being proven "right" about him doesn't help your case

So if MafiaSSK had flipped town, my conviction would have been genuine, but because he was obviously scum and I pushed for his lynch and he flipped...wait for it...scum, my conviction was a sham?

i don't really get what you're asking here. are you asking me what the scum motivation is in avoiding prods? or are you simply asserting that, as scum, you would have gone silent after putting a bus vote down?

Yeah. Please. My posts could have been mere prod dodges and the lynch would have happened. There was no reason for me to draw attention to myself. I was not under any real suspicion and should not be today. There was no need for me to be vehement in any way. I was already on the first scum wagon; there would have been nothing suspicious about hopping on the second one early on too. And if I am scum, going silent after putting a bus vote down is exactly what I did with FS. Why not repeat a strategy that had led to exactly zero suspicion of me?

Your view that SSK's lynch was inevitable is unfounded. It was possible that mastin would successfully make a case to keep SSK alive, so I would gain nothing by expediting a lynch on my scumbuddy after one was already lynched on Day 1.

no it doesn't, but that's not even really an issue for me, anyway, so i don't care about this

It certainly does.


If I am to be lynched, whatever. At least use this day productively. We have plenty of time left. If/when I die, who next? Who is basically conftown? Anyone have theories on night kills/actions? Who is SK? What are thoughts on mastin, mollie, and Kaze? More specifically than "town" or "scum?" Reasons, with references to specific posts?

[Aegor]

BTW, kind-of-but-not-totally game-related:

@Skull:

I offer you my sincere apology for the language I used in a particular post on Day 1 (and language in any subsequent posts that was offensive). I should have guarded my tongue and treated you with the respect that every human being deserves. My behavior was unjustifiable. I hope that you can forgive me eventually.

[Aegor]

There is no way you can argue that relative silence on my end would have drawn more attention than repeated pushing for a lynch. Therefore I did draw attention to myself when it was unneeded.

i also don't like that you're conscious of the fact that you rode out the flandre wagon but did something different in regards to the mafiassk wagon

God forbid a player have self-awareness. Or do you just post anything and then forget about it?

mafiassk was definitely going to be the lynch yesterday - nothing you did or didn't do would have had any affect on this and nothing you did made this more likely

That is simply not true. If mafiaSSK was not obvscum, then there was a definite chance he was not going to be lynched, especially after mastin started pushing a defense. If mafiaSSK was obvscum, then my conviction was appropriate anyway. Your retroactive fatalism is just wrong.

if you're town, i look for next most likely scum in your neighbourhood (because there is almost certainly at least one scum in there because ~reasons bork doesn't want discussed~). if you're scum, i'm not thinking that far ahead atm

and i'm not going to go into specifics with my reads on the three people you named (too much effort, too little reward atm), but i do think all three of them look town (or at least not factional scum)

Are you fucking kidding me? That is all you have?

[Aegor]

i could argue that lurking can draw more attention than being active, actually. do you want me to? i'd rather not wall theory...the only people who don't draw attention for lurking are chronic lurkers

I would not have drawn attention for lurking on Day 3 since my activity level had not been noteworthy earlier in the game. I gained absolutely nothing by altering my posting pattern.

i am usually not self-aware of specific things like that as town. i am usually aware of my reasoning, who i've voted (though sometimes i forget even this), and how my reads have progressed as the game went on, but i don't think i'm ever aware of things like whether i simply silently rode out a wagon as town.

Then my memory is better than yours. I remember in what way I contributed or did not contribute to wagons via my posting. And I almost never am willing to lynch someone without a solid case on them, which is why FS's lynch was so unusual for me at a personal level.

mostly because i never do that as town (or at least if i do that, i'm not conscious that i'm doing it). but you being conscious of it suggests it was a decision you were making.

You have ridden out every single wagon in this game by my standards. I did not "decide" to ride out the FS wagon in the manner you suggest, and if I had, I would certainly not call attention to it on my own initiative. FS amounted to a policy lynch. Everyone rode that wagon. No one had a solid case against her.

no, mafiassk was going to be lynched (with or without you) and it wasn't because he was "obvscum", it was because he was likely scum and almost everyone agreed with this.

so no. i still don't think your conviction was appropriate

Even if one accepts your false premises, the conclusion still does not follow. But because your assertion that he would inevitably have been lynched remains incorrect, we do not even have to go there.

[Aegor]

And even if you did not think that SSK was surviving the day, I thought it possible:

Can we please just lynch MafiaSSK or move on to someone else? I do not like prolonging a lynch-that-won't-be.

Kaze is another good lynch. I have a few others in mind as well.

From post 2311. And since your argument rests on my motivation and mental state, I am surprised that this post does not appear in any of your posts.

[Aegor]

(1) how did you alter your posting pattern?

My activity increased over the course of the game once I started forming stronger reads. If my object was survival there would be no reason for me to increase my posting frequency, which was low Day 1.

(2) you say you gained nothing, but you're now using this as a defense - ergo you did gain something

This is is straight-up scummy reasoning. I did not preemptively point to my record and claim that I am town. You are accusing me on the basis of my posting yesterday, and now I am offering an explanation and a reason that your argument is uncompelling even if you are not convinced by my own explanation of my behavior. I did not lay the groundwork for a defense. Until today, no one articulated any real suspicion of me anyway.

You want scum? How about the people voting me with no explanation, no trajectory, and no substantial posts since the votes were cast. Read my cases on mollie and Kaze. Push Orc for content. But this is a dead-end, because when I get lynched, you will end up with a bandwagon full of people who have contributed nothing and no leads going into tomorrow. Or is that what you want?

you did decide to ride it out (i don't know how you can suggest otherwise), though,

If by "riding it out" you mean "leaping on it and just following it to the conclusion," no. I was perfectly willing to lynch FS because her contributions were at best nonexistent. But I had no damning case, so I posted none. That is what I meant by "riding it out."

and you didn't decide to draw attention to it until it became a matter of you contrasting how you approached one scum lynch compared to another as a means of suggesting you cannot be scum because you would have approached them uniformly.

And if I had anything to hide, I would not have mentioned it at all.

also if everyone rode out the flandre wagon, then why are you using it as part of your defense?

Because it relates to my defense.

yes, it does

My conviction was appropriate, and justified. And ultimately validated.

almost everyone thought mafiassk was likely scum -> there was no such general opinion on anyone else -> mafiassk lynch was definitely going to happen bar new information coming to light (mastin's defense wasn't new information)

Nope, because a wagon does not mean the day has to end. Just like the Brian wagon on Day 1 did not mean his death, and the wagon on me currently does not inevitably mean I will die. There was still plenty of time for someone to post a case on someone else; no one did. But there is no way to know whether that will occur until it does or does not before the lynch.


muffin, what bothers me the most about your posts recently is that you claim my conviction about SSK was unjustified, and yet you are responding to me with an equal level of conviction. Everything I have said is just more evidence for you that I am scum, regardless of how plausible or reasonable or legitimate any other explanation is. I could be saying the exact opposite of what I am, and your responses would be just as vehement and just as irrational and just as convinced that I am scum. It makes no sense. You are not actually reading my posts; you are assuming that I am lying and I am scum and then twisting my words into something that is consistent with that. No defense of mine will ever be adequate for you. So lynch me, fine.

But I urge the other players not to let muffin -- or anyone, not even themselves -- get away with starting on square 1 tomorrow. Where is orc? Why is mollie not even being considered a suspect, even after I made the most thorough case against her that anyone has made against anyone in this game? Why are my posts being ignored almost completely? Why would the town players NOT want to have a reads list from a shrinking pool of suspects that are in a position, with my premature lynch, to start tomorrow with a blank slate because they have not been forced to commit to reading any other players or taking positions or actually looking at anyone besides the designated lynch for the day? This is just bad town play.

[Aegor]

I already did, mollie. I believe that I have responded to every single one of your posts. If I missed something, feel free to repost your question/response.

muffin, your own posts are ridiculously stupid. You can say I am wrong as much as you want, but it is simply not true, as I have explained time and time again. I did not lay groundwork for my defense; I simply explained posts I made. None of that would have been mentioned had you not attacked them in the first place. Sorry that I actually pay attention to what I write and how I act in every game regardless of alignment.

I am done with this game, save for addressing mollie's alleged shooting down of my shitty case. Please just lynch me and give me more time to play my other games, since no one seems interested in any productive dialog or actually playing this game in any sort of comprehensive way.

[Aegor]

Yes.

[Aegor]

For those wondering, my case against mollie is in post 2467.

1) My standards for activity involve something other than active lurking. When I examine your scumhunting throughout this game, I see nothing.
2) Your voting record is terrible. I explained this in detail in my own post.
3) You did not bus retardedly on Day 1. You stated intent to hammer but did not for quite some time. That is not a dumb bus at all. That is a great bus because it is anticipated but you have given yourself time in case the wagon weakened. That did not happen, so bussing was safe. You stated your intent to hammer on Feb. 5th but did not actually vote until Feb. 8th. And if you do not bus, then your behavior on Day 3 makes perfect sense: reluctant to bus SSK, you direct attention to mastin, and never actually bussed SSK.

[Aegor]

VOTE: Aegor

[Aegor]

I am............free.

[Aegor]

BTW Gooner is confirmed town.

[Aegor]

mollie and kaze need to be lynched

mastin should probably be lynched as well. Or vigged.

[Aegor]

wait nvm L-1. Still, everything applies.

[Aegor]

Yes. I am scum. So someone hammer. As I said, I am done with this game. I have contributed (or not, depending on your point of view) all I can. I am completely spent and want to die. Clearly this is the consensus, so it should not be difficult.

[Aegor]

Wait, Kaze, you are not voting me.

After you think you caught me in a pathetic scum ploy, your next move should be obvious.

Hammer me

. Do it. DOOOOOOOOOO IIIIIIIIIIIT.

[Aegor]

Gooner is confirmed town.

And keep all my suspects alive. I really do not care at all.

[Aegor]

I will be lolling at my flip.

[Aegor]

Mastin, read through my ISO. I was the only player this game day consistently asking for discussion. I presented thorough explanations of my reads. They were ignored and waved away with one line posts. I presented a lengthy defense -- 100% accurate, as you will soon see -- and it was ignored or dismisse. I called for players' reads on others several times. The only person who responded to my requests, muffin, flat-out refused to provide them or any explanation for reads on other players.

After all that, you have the gall to say that I cut discussion short? lol

[Aegor]

Gooner is town for sure.

[Aegor]

Why do you think Kaze did not vote me right away? I just exposed either the SK or the last maf.

[Aegor]

K. I would highly recommend that you eliminate him ASAP. Then Mollie. Reverse the order if you like.

[Aegor]

asking for detailed reads on players who i'm not considering a lynch on (and are not in any immediate danger of being lynched) is wasted effort on my part unless you're asking me for a reason - but you never specified a reason. hey, i probably would have given you reasons if you weren't being such a dipshit about it and saying the reasons must include post links - fuck that, i'm not wasting my time

It is not a wasted effort. It provides information to town and forces all players to actually research the thread instead of just limiting themselves to the narrow pool of people who receive focus and attention. You are stuck in short-term thought. The point of my asking those questions was to provide a solid basis for scumhunting tomorrow and to compel every player to provide material for scrutiny later. What is with people not caring if someone who has barely posted makes it to lylo?

[Aegor]

Also, you're a fuck.

If you're town I wish for this to be our last game together.

K

[Aegor]

False dichotomy. I asked for something. No one gave anything. And there was little/no trajectory for anyone's vote on me save Skull's, which was misguided in the first place. So enjoy your low-info lynch and best of luck to you.

[Aegor]

Hmmm...I disagree. But I suppose I am rather vindictive.

[Aegor]

Yay! Congrats town, although mollie should have died way earlier because she was obvscum (as my ISO will reveal).

[Aegor]

But mollie deserves props for her successful efforts to avoid lynches.

[Aegor]

Low info kill. I was not really worried about getting lynched, so there seemed to be little point in killing active players.

[Aegor]

BTW, you are welcome for shooting Cephrir. I was too excited about my suspects for maf that I forgot to balance the factions in order to help me win.

And @Skull: My lynch literally came out of nowhere. You suspected me for incorrect reasons since Day 1, and my lynch was based on associative tells that were obviously not actually tells.

[Aegor]

Oh, gosh, you're absolutely right. I thought you were Scum, but you were actually the Serial Killer. I was

so

incorrect.

Of course you were: I can say whatever the fuck I want about other players with no justification and then say "I told you so!" after they flip; that does not make anything I said legitimate, it just makes it coincidentally correct.

[Aegor]

i.e. your practically non-existent case was bullshit.

[Aegor]

Oh, gosh, you're absolutely right. I thought you were Scum, but you were actually the Serial Killer. I was

so

incorrect.

Of course you were: I can say whatever the fuck I want about other players with no justification and then say "I told you so!" after they flip; that does not make anything I said legitimate, it just makes it coincidentally correct.

That's pretty mean

But on a serious note you did crack under pressure (after you killed scum for us lol) which was the reason why I placed my vote on you. I don't know about the others

Which does nothing to address my accurate claim that the initial wagon buildup on me was out of nowhere (though on-target, obviously).

[Aegor]

You lost, Aegor. Get over it. Crying about your lynch post-game isn't going to retroactively prevent it.

...? I think you have me confused with someone who takes mafia personally.