Mini 1547 - Wicked Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #2000 (isolation #0) » Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:58 am

Post by Fenchurch »

In post 1965, bazinga wrote:and you are agreeing with your partner to vote Medea over people in your lowest collective tier because....
If you think I was happy about it you are dead wrong! The reasons were:
1. CES is stubborn and tends to have conviction in his reads
2. I had less certainty in the accuracy of my own; especially prior to that post, when I wasn't even fully caught up with the game. (And now that I am, I feel more comfortable with CES' reads anyway.)

But pretty much since the start of Day 2, I was saying ‘I’m not sure Medea is scum’ or ‘I’m not happy with us voting Medea’, and mostly Wester would just look at me with slightly sad eyebrows, not saying anything, and I don’t actually know what that look meant or what he was thinking but I imagine it was something like: ‘I don’t have an answer for you because I think that she is scum and you’re wrong, I don’t want to unvote her, but I don’t like that you’re unhappy about it so I can’t see how to resolve this’. And it made it impossible for me to participate, because if I posted any of my thoughts it would de-value our vote, so I was feeling pretty aggravated and disenfranchised.

CES did offer on a couple of occasions to switch to Toasty or Osseus, but he clearly didn't believe either of them was a better vote, and I wasn't prepared to take sole responsibility should I turn out to be wrong.

(And I actually half-thought that CES had switched to Osseus in #1951; but that’s irrelevant now anyway.)

Again, I think your criticism ultimately stems from me being often getting left behind in the game, and I’ve been entirely open about my reasons for this. Only on Day 2 this is already twice as long as any completed game I've played; and most of the posts come in the middle of the night for me, so it's a pretty sharp change compared with the small UK-based games that I’ve been in more recently. We chose to hydra because I like to skimread games that CES is in and often want to make comments, and this is the only way I can legally do that. But actually playing the game is a bit more involved than I was prepared for…

-------------------------
In post 1960, notscience wrote:reminds me the goodnight hydra in 1520, who basically used their 2 heads so they could have more scumreads/excuse votes on people in the future
But that's not us, that's just me. After I put my thoughts in order in that post, I commented to CES that I still really only had 3 town reads, and everyone else as null or scummy :) And that's another reason why I've been mostly happy to defer to CES for our vote.

Also I feel more like you are town when you give the reasons for your reads.
-------------------------

Yesterday I re-read the end of Day 1, and skimmed one of F-16's scum games, and came out thinking Ghato could be scum. Their main towntell was the effort they put into giving reads when they were at L-1, but since it helped prevent them from getting lynched it could be a plausible scum strategy.

Plus there was Zdenek's read on them:
In post 1185, Zdenek wrote:I just looked through a bunch of [F-16's] games. When he's scum he fakes thoughtfulness, and that's what he's done this game.
I wish I'd asked chamber why he thought Ghato-scum wouldn't have made the Zdenek night kill, because to me it seems like it'd be pretty sensible play for them if they did.

But then Ghato's recent posts like...
In post 1983, Ghatokaca wrote:I thought scum-you would be able to sneak out of it and make me look bad in the process . . . I asked Nacho for tips on how to get charismatic scum players lynched and he said that all that was needed was conviction
This seems really sincere, and I don't think that this is a play that scum would have chosen to make, so I'm also inclined to think Ghato are probably town, after all.
In post 1983, Ghatokaca wrote:I usually ended up regretting not reaching out to people who had similar suspect lists to mine and when we both ended up town, I felt like if only I had reached out and stopped, everything could have been so much better.
And this also seems honest, plus reasonable advice to me. I think the scum are generally more likely to be among the players that nobody has a strong town-read on.

-------------------------
In post 1981, ToastyToast wrote:Because my votes were totally the scummiest. And not that lovely BRO wagon.
a) Even if all 3 scum were on the BRO wagon (which is a possibility), there were still 4 townies there too, so several players (myself included, by proxy) know that there were legitimate reasons to believe that BRO was likely scum.
b) There was a fair chance that the lynch could have swung to Ghato instead of BRO, and as mollie already pointed out, scumteams generally try to spread their votes a bit to prevent all being caught in the ‘wrong’ place - especially if Ghato is scum.

I do think it's a bit unlikely that Toasty and Osseus are scum together, since they're both pushing the same weak argument about the BRO-wagon, and that seems an unlikely move for scumbuddies to make. To be honest I think I find Toasty more scummy than Osseus, but I’d like to re-read both.
In post 1973, Mina wrote:That said, Fenchurch, what changed between the last time you called Hanzo townish and the big reads list?
Hahaha - my reads have all been so variable that I just assumed this was true – but when I went back through my posts so that I could answer you correctly, I could't find anywhere that I’ve called Hanzo townish. Am I missing it? I said I thought he was scum in #237, #542, #653. #726. It was CES who said he was 'pretty darn town' in #1874.

I did think Hanzo was town yesterday but now I re-read I can’t remember why so to be honest I’m back to scummy on him again! E.g. I don’t like how he wants to lynch Ghato because ‘Ghato is a VT and we have a mislynch to use to let’s use it’ (#1853).
In post 1973, Mina wrote:Also, when were your most recent scum games on the forum?
It's all on my wiki; but my forum scum games have been Open 316: Lovers, Open 318: Nomination Mafia, and Mini 1256: Marius & Sulla.

-------------------------

I've remembered why I think the claims are slightly less likely to be scum. Because if the scum claim power roles - even power roles that they truly have – then there's more of a chance for them to get caught, if their claims create an implausible conflict with another town power. I guess maybe that's not very likely with a neighbouriser... I'm not sure.

My scum/null pool is currently:
Mostly town-ish: Mina, chamber, bazinga, Ghato, notsci
Possible scum: Medea, Mala, Hanzo
Would most like to lynch: Osseus or Toasty

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Post Post #2074 (isolation #1) » Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:15 am

Post by Fenchurch »

Mina - do you think that Osseus is town despite them being 'ambiguous'? If so, why?

I might have more to post but it's a bit jumbled… gonna cook dinner and then meet Wester at the bus station. We'll probably be online a bit later this evening.
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Post Post #2075 (isolation #2) » Fri Mar 07, 2014 6:15 am

Post by Fenchurch »

bazinga - I'd also like for you to answer the questions Mina asked.
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Post Post #2589 (isolation #3) » Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:27 am

Post by Fenchurch »

Personally I don't see a compelling reason for Mala to use the gladiator
Today
. It seems pretty likely that she has it whether she's scum or town, because it's a stupid thing to lie about if she doesn't; and as long as she uses it before the end of the game then we'll find out then. And if she's scum there's still no real incentive to her hanging on to it, because she is always going to pit herself against one other player, so she'll still be up for lynch.

I can understand the point that it's a bit scummy her not having used it under the circumstances where she has been pretty much tunnelling a single player, and nobody else is following her on that, but if she is not that deep in the game right now it also fits with that; if none of her reads are that strong. (Although the lack of strong reads/time commitment to the game could itself be a minor scumtell, but also might not).

P-Edit: okay, that kinda makes this post pointless.
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Post Post #2943 (isolation #4) » Fri Apr 04, 2014 12:05 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

Could you repeat the question, Mala? I can't find it quickly.

Mina, I was secretive about my claim because I always play it that way. Fenchurch pushed me to claim all day but I have an old-school approach to that. My set-up speculation was perfectly straightforward too.
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Post Post #3275 (isolation #5) » Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:14 am

Post by Fenchurch »

ARGH! MINA.

I had this post half drafted at work and I'm gonna post it anyway.

Mina – I’ve already said most of these things before, but my own thoughts are that I hope you’ll vote correctly for Mala as scum. I know that you’ve had some paranoia on us; but I know that our play has been from town and I trust that you will see that overall, and recognise that the things which may have pinged you also make sense coming from me/CES as town. I was surprised that you were bothered by any aspects of our claim, given that it has influenced my play so significantly throughout the game (Day 1 frustrations about us being scumread, conflicts with CES about how best use our role, my Day 2 opinions on claims, my Day 3 conviction on Medea upon Katsuki's flip and Toasty’s claim, my Day 3 conflict over whether to vote a player I think is town just because it gives more information about the player I think is scum). And given how much I would have had to invent (our thoughts and reasons for each protection, the stuff in the neighbourhood on N1), and given that I can't see why we as scum would claim at all to get our scumreads lynched, when it just puts us in a 1v1 position and more in line for lynch ourselves.

I think notsci is probably Mala’s partner, based on his play and the reasons CES has given, although I am a bit surprised at some of the interactions/choices they’ve made (I don’t know if I’ve ever seen scum defend each other so strongly, if it was me I think I’d feel uncomfortable doing that as scum and would prefer to have some distance), and Ghato has done some weird stuff during the game (their tunnelling case on Mina, which in my eyes amounted to ‘she
could
be scum’ without any strong reasons why), so I’m not so sure. But I’m not too worried about getting the buddy correct right now; if you lynch correctly today, then at Night we can work out whether it’s Ghato or notsci.

----------

And you know, I was semi-reluctant to post this anyway (before what Mina just said) because I feel like every time I post my thoughts I get called scummy for them and I feel like that is going to happen with this. But then, if I post nothing then you don't know what I'm thinking and then my reads and actions will make no sense. So what else am I meant to do?!

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Post Post #3276 (isolation #6) » Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:16 am

Post by Fenchurch »

And the other thing I've been wanting to say today is, notsci, if you
are
town, please reconsider your read on us and Mala, because you have it the wrong way around.

And I was gonna post this earlier but CES said not to because he wanted to see what you would do on your own accord, that it would help to confirm which of you/Ghato is scum.

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Post Post #3411 (isolation #7) » Tue Apr 29, 2014 2:16 am

Post by Fenchurch »

So...

I'm sorry to Medea for the incorrect and relentless tunnelling D2 - D4, and penguin, I do like you as a player; I'm sorry if you really don't feel the same way. I acknowledge that I was wrong (and somewhat influenced by conf-bias), although I'm still not sure what would have been the correct play from our point of view (aside from, you know, better reads). I was a bit reassured to see Tammy in the dead topic says that she might also have been suspicious of the 'friendly neighbour' slip. Although it made more sense when you explained about your recently completed game that also contained a friendly neighbour and neighbourhood combo; but by that point it was too late. And not that this makes it any better: but one of the reasons why I came into D5 thinking notsci was the likely scum, was because he got on board with our case in the end, when most of the rest of the town was dismissing it...

I'm sorry for being so easily swayed by F16 and Nacho's hydra-convos in the neighbourhood.

And for voting for Aronis and not Mala on D3, when our slot had more information at that time (due to our role). There were two reasons for this: one, at the time I genuinely did think Mala was more likely to be town than Aronis. Aronis - the reason why I thought you were scummy is because you pushed for Mala to use the gladiate at a bad time (we were still two days away from lylo), on
yourself
and not on a scumread of yours, for a silly reason, and then said things like 'Mala is not my top scum read, she's null', and didn't answer when I asked you to give more explanation for all of these actions.

The second reason I didn't vote Mala is possibly a bad one, but... with notsci so adamant that anyone voting Mala was scum, I was rather nervous that voting Mala would look like we were opportunistic-scum trying to get rid of a player who most viewed as town. So yeah; I worry about looking scummy when I'm town, and that's probably bad play. But given how many people were wary of us, I do wonder if at that stage, us voting for Mala would have turned away any potential supporters of her lynch.

Fear of looking scummy also affected my D5 play; personally, I was still weighing up the chances of Ghato and even Mina as scum-partners for Mala, but I was hesitant to post my thoughts on these pairings, because I thought that would look like I was trying to push suspicion onto
everyone
. I hoped that if we got the Mala-lynch then we could talk about all the possible pairings in the neighbourhood overnight, and people should have stopped suspecting us by then. On that topic, there was a post of Ghato's on D5 that I thought was a bit sketchy - #3175 where Nacho speculates about Mala's partner, and posits that 'notsci will probably kill Ghato, Amper will probably kill Mina'. I thought it was weird that Nacho seemed to consider us as a partner more than Mina, especially given their suspicion of Mina throughout the game. But maybe there was something I missed that made it make sense?

Reading the scumtopic, I'm really impressed by Nacho's play, I think he was very perceptive about what the scumteam needed to be doing and held things together well.

Overall, I'm glad to have played with everyone who was in the game.

And honestly, that bazinga kill made me think crazy things! After just protecting the 'correct' player but a night too early, and having deliberately chosen bazinga the night before because we thought that would leave us free to protect correctly the following night, I was convinced that we'd finally stop a kill, or else, that the Toasty-kill would go through and we could confirm there was a roleblocker. Either way, we could claim and we'd have some kind of evidence or additional info to support with our claim. Instead, the same thing happened AGAIN where the player died who we'd previously protected, AND I was sure that Toasty would be killed the following night (which he was). I'm actually kinda disappointed that we didn't get the Mala lynch and then Ghato kill Mina, to round out the list (we debated protecting nobody N4 but in the end opted to protect Mina, for the reasoning that she *might* still die and if she did it would reflect badly on us, although by the start of D5 we decided it had been a bad choice and we should have protected no one).

Tammy - thanks for modding, you ran the game really well, and I thought it was a good setup. Will you post the full night actions? I think most have been claimed but I'd still be curious to see everything all together.
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Post Post #3412 (isolation #8) » Tue Apr 29, 2014 4:13 am

Post by Fenchurch »

Fenchurch wrote:I'm actually kinda disappointed that we didn't get the Mala lynch and then Ghato kill Mina, to round out the list
... I really did consider whether the reason we were a non-consecutive doctor was to ensure that our 'protections' would become kills without it being too obvious to us...

Looking back on the D3 gladiate-mislynch, does anyone think that we actually could have gotten Mala lynched, if I'd voted differently there? We needed 5 to lynch, I know there was Aronis, bazinga, us and maybe Mina, but who else? Medea were supporting Aronis-scum, notsci was strongly opposed to lynching Mala. Toasty, could you have been persuaded onto Mala? Or maybe Ghato would have bussed at that stage?

Also Tammy - the opening post currently has Madame Morrible listed as a Gladiator, I think that should be Jailkeeper.
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