NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)


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Post Post #44 (isolation #0) » Sat Mar 15, 2014 4:12 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 21, bjc wrote:I'm scum.
What a peculiar post. No meaning, no purpose, no humour. Everything else in this game thus far is smoke clouding my vision.
Vote: bjc


(Note: Kinda busy today and tomorrow. Home with my family for my birthday. Though I still should have enough access to post and keep up, I won't be able to make more substantive posts until Monday.)
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Post Post #70 (isolation #1) » Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:17 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 64, 4nxi3ty wrote: you didn't agree with zdenek on damon gant? I thought it was decent considering damon thinking it was necessary to post something substantive weirded me out.
In post 66, Mister Rogers wrote:Hmmm, ZD's DG analysis didn't make my notes. Thanks for pointing it out but of course I agree there and specifically how DG is sheeping Pere's logic and not using his own. He also appears to be overjustifying his absence but happy birthday to him anyway.
You're going to have to excuse me for being stupid here. The only point I see zdenek making about me is "#4", which you'll forgive me if I don't find it to be spectacular analysis. Obviously I'm missing something here so can someone explain it to me? I'll pre-emptively point out that I barely read the post I was supposed to be sheeping. Honestly, there's only so much one can say about a post that says "I'm scum", so it's unsurprising we have similar things to say about it.

And yes, I guess I did overjustify my absence which is turning out not to be so much so anyway thanks to this nifty iPad keyboard I got today. I appreciate the birthday wishes, even if they are laced with poison!
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Post Post #104 (isolation #2) » Sat Mar 15, 2014 2:27 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 82, bjc wrote::igmeou: Horrible. First off, since when was this a gambit?
Second, why is something like that posted in RVS even taken seriously?
This wasn't addressed to me but it seems to make sense for me to give my answer to these two points.

First: You claimed scum. Whether this was some ill-informed RVS joke or not, on some level this was a gambit, even if the goal was just attention.

Second: If nothing in the RVS was taken seriously, then we would remain permanently in the RVS. Nothing we do is truly random. There is a motive behind every statement posted. It is only by analysing this that we are able to phase out of RVS.

My contention is that so far out of everything said here your post is the most blatantly anti-town. At this early stage in the game, where there's not the greatest deal to go on, that is more than enough for you to be a good place for my vote.

People's reaction to my first post has been stupid. Mastin's in particular seems like he just has a problem with just the way that I weighed my words. It's how I post - particularly if I'm making a post with quite a simple and concise point. Indeed, just in general, I don't find Mastin's reads to be very good. The certainty in them is obviously part of his meta, but I do disagree with pretty much all of it. I'm not sure if posting such disagreeable reads is part of his meta! I don't have any particularly strong feelings on his proposal for a limit of posting - but as others do, I guess that's not happening.

Also, Peregrine's comment about BBMolla replacing out is unhelpful.

I'll note that I'm now 100% read and up to date here. Admittedly I was not when I made my first post, as I was in a bit of a rush to make it just in case it was my only opportunity to post for ~36 hours.
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Post Post #118 (isolation #3) » Sat Mar 15, 2014 9:35 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Mastin's play continues to be very bleh. Giving garbage reads, and now trying to spoonfeed us what his meta is. That's not going to work - when I have time tonight I'll be looking at Mastin's meta for myself. It does need doing, because of the unorthodox playstyle - but I'm not going to be told by the player himself what his meta is, and essentially that his meta this game corresponds with his meta for town.
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Post Post #130 (isolation #4) » Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:42 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 122, SnowStorm wrote: "Your joke was anti-town, therefore you're scum". This is scum logic.
That's not scum logic - that's bad logic. Unlike others in this thread, you will not hear me chuck around certainties like "you're scum" - certainly not at this early point of the game. My scumhunting is merely analysing the probability that I feel each person is scum. That anti-town joke upped bjc's percentage chance immediately in my eyes, and the others still have some catching up to do. As long as bjc's percentage is the highest, my vote will remain there - but I am by no means close to certain of course, because certainty at this phase of the game would be idiocy of the highest order.

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 6#p5748186]Damon is ignoring everything that's happened in the game so far to focus on something alignment irrelevant (unless bjc has a habit of claiming scum when he is scum, then it is certainly relevant). He also feels the need to point out how it is still OK to pursue that. On his first post his excuse was that everything else was clouding his vision; now he says there's not much to go on because the game is still at an early stage. Come on, I'm not saying there's plenty of relevant stuff going on, but anything is more relevant than a bad RVS joke.[/quote]

Did I claim there's not much going on? I believe I said that bjc's post was the most anti-town, and for now this is enough without really making a statement about the rest of the game. If I did claim there's not much going on, I apologise, because there are things going on now, if still relatively minor. Now that I'm back at my computer, I have things I wish to analyse, and then maybe I'll get my reads straight in my head.
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Post Post #131 (isolation #5) » Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:05 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Yikes, I hate broken quote tags. That'll teach me to preview my post next time. Anyway, as it was requested of me, bad reads from mastin include:

talah as scum
bjc as town
Doc Holliday as scum
Luca Blight as town (not much to go on here, but I don't like what little there is to go on)
And the downright obvious from my POV, myself as scum

If you want clarification on any particular point here, I'm happy to provide. Unlike mastin (supposedly), my meta does not dictate that I make logically superior reads when I'm scum, and just ask you to trust me as town - or at least I hope not, because that would make me a poor town player.

Also to be noted is that 3 slots - Smudger, Nero Cain, and projectmatt - are yet to make a single contribution to the game.
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Post Post #138 (isolation #6) » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:28 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 136, SnowStorm wrote:
In post 130, Damon_Gant wrote:
In post 122, SnowStorm wrote: "Your joke was anti-town, therefore you're scum". This is scum logic.
That's not scum logic - that's bad logic. Unlike others in this thread, you will not hear me chuck around certainties like "you're scum" - certainly not at this early point of the game. My scumhunting is merely analysing the probability that I feel each person is scum. That anti-town joke upped bjc's percentage chance immediately in my eyes, and the others still have some catching up to do. As long as bjc's percentage is the highest, my vote will remain there - but I am by no means close to certain of course, because certainty at this phase of the game would be idiocy of the highest order.
So you're knowingly basing your vote on bad logic. Ok.
Bad logic is anti-town, therefore scum. Good logic is anti-town, therefore increased probability of being scum.

As for the other point you make about RVS vs post-RVS stuff - there is no clear line in the sand between these two as people would like to believe. I play to my win condition from the first post I make - RVS or otherwise. No post is off-limits for analysis.

I will elaborate on my reads of talah, Doc and Luca tomorrow as requested.
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Post Post #202 (isolation #7) » Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:40 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

My responses to the mastin reads I definitely disagreed with that I mentioned earlier.
In post 16, Doc Holliday wrote:
In post 15, talah wrote:
In post 12, DeasVail wrote:I am talah! Are you town?
Yuppers, sure am.

Well this is good news! Perhaps if mastin is town too we shall be an unstoppable scumhunting force.
Or the first three nightkills ><
Rogers, add trying to build a coalition of friends based on past exploits rather than current-game evidence.

Unvote
Vote: talah


Out of RVS
Provocative in the right ways. His other posts are neutral, but I definitely feel this one leans town. As I was asked to contrast against mastin's garbage read - mastin seems to imply that Doc's post where he might be leaving room open to vote for bjc later is scummy. I just think it was a valid observation, but obviously his suspicions were elsewhere. Doc does need to post again.
In post 48, Luca Blight wrote:You can't read much from bjc's opening post; you have to question why scum would want to draw attention to themselves so needlessly early on, but it could be some sort of ridiculous bluff.

He comes across as apathetic, which I would attribute more to Town in the early stages of a game as opposed to scum.
Luca has two posts. One of them is a vote for Doc with no justification. The other is this mush, which is just a post to sound like it's saying something, rather than the nothing it really is. It just seems like an attempt at active lurking, with a healthy dose of fencesitting. To call this town is probably mastin's most bizarre read. We definitely need to see more posts from Luca.

As for talah, just the overall feel of his posts feels like something coming from town to me. Again, provocative in the right ways, seems to be genuinely scumhunting, called out mastin which is a big plus in my opinion when already there's been a couple of people in this game defending her by proxy. The only negative in talah's posts is the OMGUS vote on Doc, which I don't really like - but everything else is good stuff.

As for other reads, I definitely have at least a gut suspicion about mastin after her first few posts in this game, and I have a gut townread on Mister Rogers - but I find this to be quite dangerous because so does everyone else. As I mentioned earlier, I don't like Peregrine's comment about BBMolla "scum-placing" out, and he also should post again.
In post 163, 4nxi3ty wrote:
In post 143, ThAdmiral wrote:Damon gant - There's something about the way he posts that screams slightly-inexperienced town.
:? this isn't his first rodeo
Correct - I'd hate to be called inexperienced. However, I am rusty, having not played for 2 years.
In post 142, BipolarChemist wrote:
In post 131, Damon_Gant wrote: Also to be noted is that 3 slots - Smudger, Nero Cain, and projectmatt - are yet to make a single contribution to the game.
I agree with Smudger and Nero, would like to see posts from them, but poking a projectmatt is kinda dumb. He replaced in just about an hour before your post.
This wasn't meant to be "calling them out", but rather noting that 3 slots who could be anything were yet to enter the game in any way at all, and we should remember that. As it is, projectmatt came in with a post that I consider townish. Also, the interpretation of this post as an interaction between scumbuddies by zdenek is really really bad.

Unvote: bjc
Vote: Luca Blight


I don't massively enjoy putting my vote on someone who has made only one post of (kinda) substance, but I think my vote is more useful here for now. Encouraging a scummy lurker from their hideyhole is no bad thing.
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Post Post #204 (isolation #8) » Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:45 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Also, I like the fake vig - a lot.
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Post Post #221 (isolation #9) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:46 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

So I've looked at mastin's meta in the opening phases of games with some degree of depth, and what I'll say is that I'm kinda satisfied with mastin's self-meta. Certainly mastin's play so far here does seem to be more indicative of townmastin than scummastin based on meta, so I guess some of my gut suspicion is lifted.
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Post Post #243 (isolation #10) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:30 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 231, Zdenek wrote:
In post 202, Damon_Gant wrote:Provocative in the right ways. His other posts are neutral, but I definitely feel this one leans town.
Yet Doc is a scum read of yours?
Wrong. You might be confused because of the post where I listed the mastin reads that I disagreed with (with my reads being the opposite to those stated). To be fully clear, my read on Doc is town leaning.
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Post Post #282 (isolation #11) » Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:55 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 252, 4nxi3ty wrote:PV, thoughts on Luca? (whose close to being replaced, yet manages to find time to post elsewhere today)
I forgot to mention this Luca's activity elsewhere when I made my vote - it was another critical part of my thinking.
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Post Post #453 (isolation #12) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:24 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 335, pisskop wrote: is a terrible Luca vote and a Doc gutfeel dressed in logic. Why would he need to dress it up? also, for a player who says this:
In post 118, Damon_Gant wrote:Mastin's play continues to be very bleh. Giving garbage reads, and now trying to spoonfeed us what his meta is. That's not going to work - when I have time tonight I'll be looking at Mastin's meta for myself. It does need doing, because of the unorthodox playstyle - but I'm not going to be told by the player himself what his meta is, and essentially that his meta this game corresponds with his meta for town.
And then doesn't meta Luca. My experience with Luca is as a lurker/very unhelpful player until later and additionally there are better fish in the sea to eyeball.
But the answer to why I have metaed mastin and haven't metaed Luca is right there in the post you quoted. Mastin has an unorthodox playstyle and therefore normal scumtells apply less. Luca, I don't exactly know, but based off one meaningful post, does not have such a playstyle. I don't have the time to meta every person in the game to the extent that I looked at mastin's meta. However, if you believe Luca's meta to be important here I will look at it.

Perhaps you believe there are "better fish in the sea to eyeball" - and trust me, I'm eyeballing everyone - but I'm very happy with my vote right now. This is a scummy fish who is hiding away and needs to be dragged out into the open. I will however check on Luca's meta in a few hours and I'll see if I agree with your meta analysis.

And you can dismiss any read you like as a "gutfeel dressed in logic" on Day 1. What a load of nonsense. I gave a reason why I thought the quote I gave from Doc seemed town. Later in the same post I gave a self-admitted gut town read on Mister Rogers. Why would I need to "dress up" one supposed gut read but just admit to another? You're the one who is actually making up logic here, all to give pretend legitimacy to yourself, and even better if you can do it by attacking a town-read on your own slot to give yourself further legitmacy. It certainly doesn't work on me.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #13) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:02 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Checked Luca's meta - Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote.
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Post Post #475 (isolation #14) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:49 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 473, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 466, Damon_Gant wrote:Checked Luca's meta - Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote.
What on earth. How are you going to apply a metaread to somebody who has posted a grand total of 3 sentences, one of which was a proddodge?
Here's why
In post 335, pisskop wrote: also, for a player who says this:
In post 118, Damon_Gant wrote:Mastin's play continues to be very bleh. Giving garbage reads, and now trying to spoonfeed us what his meta is. That's not going to work - when I have time tonight I'll be looking at Mastin's meta for myself. It does need doing, because of the unorthodox playstyle - but I'm not going to be told by the player himself what his meta is, and essentially that his meta this game corresponds with his meta for town.
And then doesn't meta Luca. My experience with Luca is as a lurker/very unhelpful player until later and additionally there are better fish in the sea to eyeball.
At any rate, I don't think it can hurt to have an idea of the other players' metas, but yes, it was a pretty much worthless endeavour for now and adds no real context to my vote.
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Post Post #487 (isolation #15) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:14 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 479, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 335, pisskop wrote: also, for a player who says this:
In post 118, Damon_Gant wrote:Mastin's play continues to be very bleh. Giving garbage reads, and now trying to spoonfeed us what his meta is. That's not going to work - when I have time tonight I'll be looking at Mastin's meta for myself. It does need doing, because of the unorthodox playstyle - but I'm not going to be told by the player himself what his meta is, and essentially that his meta this game corresponds with his meta for town.
And then doesn't meta Luca.
My experience with Luca is as a lurker/very unhelpful player until later
and additionally there are better fish in the sea to eyeball.
In post 466, Damon_Gant wrote:Checked Luca's meta - Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote.
Wow, it's like two people are reading the same thing and have entirely different opinions.

@Damon- Do you agree/disagree with the bolded Pisskop statement?
First it should be noted that pisskop was playing the completed game with Luca in (Luca was town, pisskop was scum), and so having been in it he has more of a feel for the game as a whole compared to me who just read through Luca's ISO. That being said, I generally disagree with pisskop's bolded statement. Luca would admittedly fall away from the game for days at a time, but his posting was ok if not inspiring. He contributed much more to the early game than he has here, and also did not prod dodge as he has here.
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Post Post #489 (isolation #16) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:24 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 480, pisskop wrote: Damon is coasting with his vote. Do not like.
My vote is fine, but if you mean that my last few posts have been too focussed on Luca, that's a fair criticism. My next post will be about some other players.
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Post Post #501 (isolation #17) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:47 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 490, Mister Rogers wrote:Coasting on a Luca vote is just bad.

@DG: You joined in 2010. Why don't you know this?

Same thing goes for Anx.
In post 494, Mister Rogers wrote:I'm totally serious too. We are actually debating over voting someone that has 1 post and 1 naked BW vote.

I think the PK issue needs addressing though.
Look damn it, you're making me break the promise I made in my last post within 20 minutes! Perhaps the fact I joined in 2010 is precisely
why
I know it's the right thing to do to have my vote on Luca. I may be rusty, but I do know what I'm doing. Like I said, I need to give some opinions some other players whilst I wait for Luca to post meaningfully and now it will be my
next
post that does that, but my vote is fine where it is.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #18) » Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:07 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 506, Mister Rogers wrote:
In post 502, pisskop wrote:
In post 494, Mister Rogers wrote:I think the PK issue needs addressing though.
che cosa?
The divergence between your description of Luca & DG's. He pretty much called you out as being, well, a fibber.
In post 487, Damon_Gant wrote:
In post 479, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 335, pisskop wrote: also, for a player who says this:
In post 118, Damon_Gant wrote:Mastin's play continues to be very bleh. Giving garbage reads, and now trying to spoonfeed us what his meta is. That's not going to work - when I have time tonight I'll be looking at Mastin's meta for myself. It does need doing, because of the unorthodox playstyle - but I'm not going to be told by the player himself what his meta is, and essentially that his meta this game corresponds with his meta for town.
And then doesn't meta Luca.
My experience with Luca is as a lurker/very unhelpful player until later
and additionally there are better fish in the sea to eyeball.
In post 466, Damon_Gant wrote:Checked Luca's meta - Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote.
Wow, it's like two people are reading the same thing and have entirely different opinions.

@Damon- Do you agree/disagree with the bolded Pisskop statement?
First it should be noted that pisskop was playing the completed game with Luca in (Luca was town, pisskop was scum), and so having been in it he has more of a feel for the game as a whole compared to me who just read through Luca's ISO. That being said, I generally disagree with pisskop's bolded statement. Luca would admittedly fall away from the game for days at a time, but his posting was ok if not inspiring. He contributed much more to the early game than he has here, and also did not prod dodge as he has here.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #19) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:57 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

If you guys (i.e. Mister Rogers and talah) are impressed by Rach's vote on Nero then you must be really easy to impress. That post barely counts as contribution. My read on Rach is still null at best.

bjc is still scummy as hell - he's either scum or just horrible, horrible town. Of course it's the fault of most of the other players in the game who for some reason gave him town reads, which only encourages him to continue not helping the town in anyway. My vote isn't on him anymore, but obviously I could still get behind a bjc wagon. My stance on him did not magically change anywhere, and I agree with the point Mister Rogers made that lynching bjc would help "repair the game state". Pretty much everyone has given their stance on him or people who are attacking him at some point during the day, so knowing his alignment would certainly give information to the town.

Aptil is more meh to me - I'd rather stick to Luca or bjc for now but I totally understand why people are voting that way as well.

Going to ISO pisskop, 4nxiety and ThAd when I have time this evening, because those are the active players that have worried me the most, and I need to try and understand why that is, and whether it's justified.

Oh, and I definitely agree with by talah.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #20) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:08 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

@Mod: Can you update the original post with the replacements please?
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Post Post #624 (isolation #21) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:05 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 605, projectmatt wrote:I understand being annoyed by BJC's play but I think we both know there's a lot more bigger fish to fry.
This is the second fish analogy that has been used in this topic to describe the fact that there are apparently better people to have a vote on than lurkers such as bjc and Luca (the earlier one to use this analogy being pisskop). Stop telling me that these bigger and better fish exist, and start telling me who they are and giving me convincing reasons to vote for them. You see, the more the day goes on and I see people (including myself) struggling for scumreads and struggling to know where to go, the more I'm convinced that the majority of the scum in fact lie among these lurkers.

I've looked at the ISOs of 4nx, ThAd and pisskop. Out of those 3, I would say that it's 4nx who worries me the most, I think because his earlier posting looks like active lurking. However, to be honest, I can't logically justify a scumread, and my read on him is null. Pisskop I also have a null read on. ThAd looks town to me, there's just something genuine about his tone, particularly at the start of the game, but again it's all very gut - I much prefer logic!

With all this uncertainty I have about those who are active among us, I feel like there are quite possibly 3 or more scum hiding among the lurkers. That is where I currently see the game being played. To those who do not like this, I want to be convinced. So convince me that someone else is scum.
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Post Post #643 (isolation #22) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:06 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

To be clear, I am no proponent of "Lynch all Lurkers". My objective is to lynch scum. My beliefs are that:

a) The lurkers are detrimental to town and need to be pressured out of their shells
b) Scum are disproportionately represented in the lurkers and therefore probability dictates that the lurkers are a great place to go scumhunting.

I could totally vote for an active player if there was a compelling case that they were scum. However, until then, the lurkers look like a great place to look. What's important is that I don't just want to lynch a lurker. I want to lynch a lurker
who is scum
. I look forward to seeing matt's post about aptil.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #23) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 11:36 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In response to pisskop

List of people I consider to be lurkers:
SnowStorm, aptil, Rach, bjc, Yates, Nero, DV and Luca.

I would have said matt before his spurt of activity today. Mastin I wouldn't call a lurker as she is on VLA.
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Post Post #666 (isolation #24) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:29 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 662, pisskop wrote:^^Rach, Yates, Nero, Luca.^^

Id be for exploring them.
But not aptil?
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Post Post #725 (isolation #25) » Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:25 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 684, Yates wrote:
In post 657, Damon_Gant wrote:List of people I consider to be lurkers:
SnowStorm, aptil, Rach, bjc,
Yates
Another one accusing me of this?? WTF... Anyone calling me a "lurker" needs to check themselves. I have more CONTENT than you, Gant.
Firstly, no you don't, your posts may be long but they're packed with nothingness. You're using talking points that other people who are townreading you have given you. I will admit that it may be harsh to call you a lurker - you're posting once a day now - it's just that everyone else is drowning out your posts. At the time I made that post you certainly weren't one of the 'lurkers; that I was thinking about lynching.
In post 685, Mister Rogers wrote:DG had his chance but his promise of "eyeballing everyone" was a bunch of crap and goes beyond just being "rusty".
I am indeed "eyeballing everyone". Yesterday I looked at the ISO of literally every person in the game except yourself (because heavens knows going through your ISO is going to be a chore). I didn't promise that I was going to post detailed reads on every person in the game, because honestly, most of my thoughts are still going by gut and it wouldn't be useful to do so. However, if you want a list of my gut feels then

Scum: Luca, aptil, 4nxiety, SnowStorm, bjc
Null: Pisskop, mastin, Nero, yourself, Rach, Yates, DV
Townreads to some degree: Everyone else

I don't think that's a particularly useful exercise, but at least you now know where I stand approximately on every player in the game.
In post 683, Mister Rogers wrote:I think its far better to target lurker voters.
And even as you say this your vote was sitting on bjc. Get out, just get out, you're full of it! It's bad to speculate about scum daytalk, except when you do it of course. It's bad to vote lurkers, except when you do it. Hell, when you voted bjc, literally the only reason you did was because he's a lurker. You're getting this really easy ride through the game, because lots of people gut-read you as town earlier on. My my have you been abusing that.
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Post Post #734 (isolation #26) » Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:05 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 728, Mister Rogers wrote: Its very important to have some kind of method of communicating your most important reads. If you are scum it allows for town analysis subsequent to your flip. If you are town it helps others in the town gauge your alignment which is very important in catching scum. This is all very basic mafia theory, don't you already know this?
My most important reads were out there on the record before I made that post. Anyone I hadn't mentioned before it was because my read on them is full of gut and no substance, and I don't think that that type of read helps the town all that much. Those reads are so weak they could flip in a post.
Mr Rogers wrote:
In post 683, Mister Rogers wrote:I think its far better to target lurker voters.
And even as you say this your vote was sitting on bjc.
You are correct. But if you look at my reasons for voting BJC they are mostly to wagon him to provide content because he flat out refused to do so (or simply remove that kind of person from the game) but the
very important
difference is that I have not been tunneling a lurker, making it everything I am doing. The reason that is an important difference is because its very convenient for scum to focus on lurkers instead of getting scum suspects; they aren't around to defend themselves and is just a logical action which has the appearance of being a pro-town action. When someone's ISO only reflects focusing on lurkers, it is suspect for those reasons.
When my list of people who I read scum is 4 out of 5 lurkers what are you supposed to do? I'm dedicated more time than you could know to "eyeballing" other people, but it's just not coming to much. I want to lynch scum, and therefore I want to lynch a lurker because I think that's where the scum are. I've explained this.

Now if I were scum, I'd be doing things very differently. I'd be chasing after someone like pisskop, talah or even you because:
a) It would keep people like you who think voting for lurkers is scummy off my back
b) In fact, people often mistake chasing after those who everyone thinks is town (like you) as a towntell.
c) Keeping lurkers in the game as long as possible is very good for scum

I've said it already, and I'll say it again just so that it's totally completely clear. I want to lynch scum. Everything else is secondary. If we come out of Day 1 having lynched scum, then no matter who it is, lurker or otherwise, I'll be happy.
Mr Rogers wrote:Can you please indicate your posts concerning Anx & Snow that show your thoughts/scum probing?
I have yet to make a post about Snow, but I shall. I mention some feelings about 4nx in 624, though I end up calling him a nullread. On a reread of his ISO, I can get behind scum 4nx because he's constantly just chucking spanners in the works with his thoughts, but not actually elaborating. I know that makes no sense, but just look at these quotes.
In post 599, 4nxi3ty wrote:Talah/Mastin Meta Dispute: instinct: when it comes to meta, ime, there's usually at least one scum involved. Either from the two fighting over meta or the person that steps in and defends/attacks one of the others - haven't parsed through this, thought it should be noted anyway.
Well who is the scum here then? If he believes that there is nearly always a scum involved with meta talks then surely this should be top priority line of inquiry for him.
In post 418, 4nxi3ty wrote:Not sure how I feel about DV floating me into his scum section without commenting/pressuring/interacting with my posts.
Not sure how you feel? What does that even mean? It looks like he's just keeping it open to use this against DV later if he feels like it.

Do you get what I'm saying here? Blindly chucking suspicion around but being completely non-committal about it. Of course this type of thing requires a meta check, so I'll have to do that, but until then this type of thing definitely gets me leaning scum on 4nx.
Mr Rogers wrote:PS I am sorry if I am coming off as harsh, but I am expecting you to function as someone that has about 2 years of active experience like you said, is that right?
Hell, you can expect me to function better, given the off-site experience I've had, plus all the games I've read and studied. Like I said, I haven't played in a while, and that means that perhaps my posting style definitely needs work - indeed, that was the one part of my game that I always felt needed work. However, with regards to strategy, you just seem to have an odd idea of what experience does to a player. Beginners are the ones more likely to follow a strict set of "mafia theory". Experienced players know what theory is good, what is bad, and when to break all the rules dictated by this "theory".
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Post Post #736 (isolation #27) » Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:38 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 735, talah wrote:Damon, what the actual fuck was that post you just made about?
A very messy, slightly agitated response to post 728 mainly
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Post Post #749 (isolation #28) » Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:05 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 740, Yates wrote:=
In post 725, Damon_Gant wrote:I will admit that it may be harsh to call you a lurker... it's just that everyone else is drowning out your posts.
It's more than just harsh, though, it's wrong. I have no control over other people hyper posting. I can start breaking up each of my points into seperate posts - like some others seem to be doing - if you would like for me to clutter up the thread in a large normal?

Or would that also be a problem for you?
In post 725, Damon_Gant wrote:Yesterday I looked at the ISO of literally every person in the game except yourself [Mister Rogers] (because heavens knows
going through your ISO is going to be a chore
).
Sorry, if I didn't word it strongly enough before, but this is what I meant.
I was mistaken in calling you a lurker
, when in truth you're posting daily but just getting drowned out by people who are posting with insane frequency.
In post 740, Yates wrote:
In post 734, Damon_Gant wrote:Now if I were scum, I'd be doing things very differently. I'd be chasing after someone like pisskop, talah or even you because:
a) It would keep people like you who think voting for lurkers is scummy off my back
So... you're saying you know Mister Rogers is Town? And one of pisskop/talah is your scum buddy?? Good to know.
And no...no I am not saying that. I'm not sure I can let that one go - you've been playing mafia too long to be dumb enough to even suggest that - particularly the point that you seem to think I have "let slip" that Mister Rogers is town, which is just laughably stupid. I've got my eye on you.
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Post Post #753 (isolation #29) » Fri Mar 21, 2014 3:44 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 751, Yates wrote:Reaction Test: failed. YOU have been playing mafia too long to be dumb enough to think that was an ACTUAL scum slip accusation. If I were scum I'd push that point and call it a "slip" until you were hanged. Point of that post, though, is that it's dumb to tell people what you would do as scum and to try to pretend that the fact you aren't doing that is why you are town even though you just showed that you are aware of your scum meta and could therefore alter your meta accordingly.

Now *I* have my eye on *YOU.*
I tried to look at your scum slip accusation as a reaction test. It seemed nonsensical, as my reaction would tell you nothing about my alignment. It still seems nonsensical, you didn't explain at all how my reaction gives you any idea about my alignment.

I do actually agree with your latter point - it's useless me telling the people what my own scum meta is in terms of scumhunting me. The point of talking about what I would do as scum was not to say "and as I'm not fulfulling my self-scum-meta I must be town". My point was that Mister Rogers had one idea of how a scum player might approach a game, and I was showing him a different way one might go about it.
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Post Post #781 (isolation #30) » Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:47 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

How do people feel about 4nxi3ty? Every reread of the ISO I do makes me feel worse about him.

Unvote: Luca Blight
Vote: 4nxi3ty


Happy to switch back to Luca if that's what people want, but we are at the stage of the day now where we need to be wagoning, so I want to try a new angle.

734 for reasons.
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Post Post #927 (isolation #31) » Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:21 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 805, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 801, ThAdmiral wrote:Image

LOOK HOW MUCH FUN WE'RE HAVING!!!
Haha that is funny. You are coming across as town to me, as is Pisskop, so I will go ahead and UNVOTE: Pisskop

VOTE: 4nxi3ty
This seriously needs lynching. This is the best contribution he could come up with? Not to mention he said he wouldn't post reads until giving the thread his full attention. This does not look like the post of someone who has given the thread 15 minutes.

Snork is initially looking town in bjc's slot - but I'm never too keen to call someone town when almost literally every read they have is opposite to mine. That just worries me slightly.
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Post Post #1096 (isolation #32) » Sat Mar 22, 2014 8:09 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Well, looks like this wagon has more steam than 4nx now.

Unvote: 4nxi3ty
Vote: Luca Blight


Every post you make is disgusting Luca. Inactivity does not equal scum - you're right about that. Inactivity and scummy-as-hell posts? We're getting somewhere closer.

At this stage I am happy to vote for Luca, 4nx or aptil. I will not be voting for talah or pisskop without a better case being presented.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #33) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 1:15 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1170, ThAdmiral wrote: Page 38:
In post 927, Damon_Gant wrote:
In post 805, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 801, ThAdmiral wrote:Image

LOOK HOW MUCH FUN WE'RE HAVING!!!
Haha that is funny. You are coming across as town to me, as is Pisskop, so I will go ahead and UNVOTE: Pisskop

VOTE: 4nxi3ty
This seriously needs lynching. This is the best contribution he could come up with? Not to mention he said he wouldn't post reads until giving the thread his full attention. This does not look like the post of someone who has given the thread 15 minutes.
Then vote him? My townread on gant is wavering.
Obviously I since have, but the reason I didn't then was because I was still backing the 4nxi3ty wagon as the more likely one to take off. This was and is obviously important because of proximity to the deadline - we need to see a wagon. I've changed my stance on which wagon might take off and that is why my vote is now back on Luca.
In post 1099, Mister Rogers wrote:
In post 1095, projectmatt wrote:Well, let me ask, what do you think of Luca?
Luca is scummy as heck. Obvscum. But he is also low hanging fruit. He's great bus material. He's a bad analysis wagon (imo -- am I wrong?); we'd probably be doing scum a favor by lynching him (I know sounds bizarre but if you don't get my point, meh).

Here's the other thing: On the off chance that Luca is town (I don't believe it for a second BUT he does seem to being scummy in a way, deliberately) that will DEFINITELY be a bad wagon to analyze because everybody and his brother wants to vote Luca -- and you know what? Something is wrong with that. But hey, don't get me wrong the dewd is obvscum.
I agree with this analysis for the most part. Luca is a very easy bus for scum - and it will be hard to tell a genuine vote for Luca from a bussing one. If Luca flips town, it would be very unfortunate indeed, because it isn't the best wagon for analysis. However, as I've said before, my top priority by a mile is to lynch scum. Luca I see as the most likely guy to be scum, and therefore while it's by no means the perfect situation to have to lynch him, I think it's the best option we have on the table. If Luca does flip scum, we certainly would not be doing scum a favour to lynch him.

I'll reiterate, we're getting very late in the day. We need to be wagoning someone now so that we have time to react to any claims. I am really not interested in a talah wagon, but it should be noted that a no lynch because deadline is a disgusting outcome that cannot be allowed to happen.
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Post Post #1244 (isolation #34) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:29 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1236, aptil wrote:He has refused to join the talah wagon because the case presented is not good enough . Consider the case people have made , i find it very hard to be saying things like that . He is a very dodgy character in my opinion .
There are plenty of other people not on the talah wagon. I'm just one of the guys who is being open and honest enough to acknowledge that I am not and will likely not be joining that wagon. However, as Rogers is chucking around talah meta references everywhere my next job in this game will be to look at that myself.
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #35) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:31 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1242, aptil wrote:Yea . From DG's iso his reads seem to be low number of posts =scum . At one point he has got even Yates in that list . I feel it is just lazy and just pretending to be scum hunting rather than actually doing anything .
Not even once have I had Yates on my scum list, so get out. I listed him once as a "lurker", which is not the same as scum. I later retracted calling him a lurker. That's all by the by, I never called him scum.
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Post Post #1247 (isolation #36) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 3:54 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

I looked at that Oakhaven game you discussed and I do agree with some of your points about the differences between how he played there and how he's playing now. In that game what struck me about talah's posting was how very assured his playstyle was, compared to how he's been the last 15-20 pages or so. However, his posting early in this game for me matches his posting in that game quite well. I still believe his falling apart was due to pressure, being irritated, or some combination of those two things. Ultimately I just do not feel talah-scum, but I will be re-reading his ISO a couple more times to try and put a definite finger on why that is, or whether it's mistaken instinct.
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Post Post #1251 (isolation #37) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:02 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1250, aptil wrote: So , it takes someone to call you out before you even try to look at what others are saying .
No
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Post Post #1254 (isolation #38) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:17 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1252, Nero Cain wrote:I don't think using Talah's first came on this site* in comparisons to this game is very accurate. If we are metaing Talah it seems a more recent game would be more telling.
Whilst I agree in principle, the problem is that I'm not sure there's a great recent game to meta. Most of his recent games have been theme games which we could look at but the theme often complicates things. I was using the first game because that's one Rogers specifically addressed so I wished to reply to it.
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Post Post #1297 (isolation #39) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 7:20 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1294, Luca Blight wrote: I'm glad someone is able to look at this rationally, and not just assume that lack of activity = scum. If I were scum would I play it as badly as this? Of course not, but then from your perspective this could be a bluff in itself. It's early days in this game, and if I tried to be as enthusiastic as Mister Rogers I would end up burning myself out. Closer to the deadline I will probably get scumhunting, although Talah looks a decent bet for now for the reasons Snork stated!
Ok, firstly it's not just your lack of activity, but your absolute refusal to scumhunt when you do post, your contradictory posts, wagon-following, and fencesitting.

If you were scum you wouldn't play as badly as this? But as town it's fine to play awfully. Nope, I don't buy that for even half a second. And why not play as badly as this as scum? See how little pressure you have on yourself. The majority of people are letting you get away with it. As scum things are just dandy for you, and tomorrow you can either sidle your way into the game and people will accept you, or you can just do the same and probably get away with it again. If you're scum right now you're playing a great game. If you're town, not so much.

And dude, we are 4 days away from the deadline. If you're not going to start scumhunting now then there's virtually no point for today. And you'll
probably
get scumhunting? Dude, if you're town, by not scumhunting you are frankly playing contrary to your win condition, and that is mighty frustrating. If you're scum, then it makes a lot more sense to me.
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Post Post #1305 (isolation #40) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:27 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Zdenek, you seem to think both talah and Luca are scum, but your vote remains on a pisskop wagon that realistically is very unlikely to take off. Why not consider moving it?
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Post Post #1310 (isolation #41) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:01 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1308, Luca Blight wrote:Keep clutching those straws, mate!
Nice contribution there. Tell me why you're not scum. Tell me who is and why, with more concrete reasoning than "[ever] so slightly dodgy" opening posts. Ideally quote or link to incriminating posts and give decent reasons.
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Post Post #1318 (isolation #42) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:29 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1317, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 1303, talah wrote:At this stage I think it's probably best if we consolidate our position by flipping me and then looking at the reasons people joined my wagon with that information available.
sounds townie but I guess its possible for scum to fake. *shrugz*
I honestly think that that is the scummiest thing that talah has posted.

If Luca is town he is the worst player I've ever played with. He's got to be scum, right?
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Post Post #1321 (isolation #43) » Sun Mar 23, 2014 12:18 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1320, Luca Blight wrote: :o That hurts.

When you say I am the worst player you have played with, do you really mean the most inactive? Because I don't see what else I've said for you to have that opinion.
It shouldn't hurt too much. I didn't call you the worst player I've ever played with. I said that you were that if you were town. As you are likely scum, no need to be offended.

But I'll humour you for a second. Supposing you were town, then no, you're not any more inactive than many other players I've played with. However, those guys when they're town would usually at least try and post content. You have tried no such thing. You have done literally no scumhunting - your hop onto talah's wagon is so weak it's unbelievable. When people such as myself have asked you to do scumhunting you literally refused. You responded with sarcasm when I asked you to convince me that you were town. If you're town, you have played an absolutely abysmal Day 1 that runs completely contrary to your win condition. That's why I'm strongly inclined to think you're scum.
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Post Post #1361 (isolation #44) » Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:03 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

L-3
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Post Post #1372 (isolation #45) » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:14 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1366, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 1294, Luca Blight wrote:If I were scum would I play it as badly as this? Of course not
My first thought was to post a snarky picture here, but I actually kind of like this defense :|. It feels honest and like something along the lines of what I would say in a similar position.
You're joking right? That's a god-awful defence.
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Post Post #1471 (isolation #46) » Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:16 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Sorry I haven't said much the past couple of days. I have been paying very close attention, and I have a number of things to say, but I don't think it's particularly prudent and certainly not necessary to do so before we get a flip. I don't think analysis of Luca's wagon is particularly informative without knowing Luca's alignment. My vote will remain where it is - Luca's claim and subsequent post are my favourite posts of his thus far, but I still fancy Luca as scum more than talah.

Also, ThAd's vote on aptil is at best, really odd. I didn't like that.
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Post Post #1472 (isolation #47) » Tue Mar 25, 2014 4:18 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Addendum: I should note that I will move my vote if it becomes necessary, but I'm much happier on Luca than talah.
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Post Post #1478 (isolation #48) » Tue Mar 25, 2014 5:06 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1477, Yates wrote:
In post 1471, Damon_Gant wrote:Also, ThAd's vote on aptil is at best, really odd. I didn't like that.
Are you thinking Luca-ThAd scum team? talah-ThAd scum team? What? I have to double check but my impression of ThAd is that he'd bus his mother. :lol:
Or maybe they're both town and ThAd would like to distance himself from both of their wagons? I can't quite pick apart what the motive was, but I just didn't get it from a town POV. At least when he was on 4nx it seemed like he was on some one-man crusade he did believe in. Moving his vote onto another dead wagon...I don't know, just something doesn't feel right. It feels tokenistic - something I'd attribute to scum rather than town.
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Post Post #1605 (isolation #49) » Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:07 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

ThAdmiral wrote:
In post 1478, Damon_Gant wrote:
In post 1477, Yates wrote:
In post 1471, Damon_Gant wrote:Also, ThAd's vote on aptil is at best, really odd. I didn't like that.
Are you thinking Luca-ThAd scum team? talah-ThAd scum team? What? I have to double check but my impression of ThAd is that he'd bus his mother. :lol:
Or maybe they're both town and ThAd would like to distance himself from both of their wagons? I can't quite pick apart what the motive was, but I just didn't get it from a town POV. At least when he was on 4nx it seemed like he was on some one-man crusade he did believe in. Moving his vote onto another dead wagon...I don't know, just something doesn't feel right. It feels tokenistic - something I'd attribute to scum rather than town.
Anxiety wagon wasn't going anywhere. On looking back at the game I felt I had a strong case against aptil, furthermore many people had expressed suspicion on him and he was in a lot of people's scum lists. I genuinely thought it had a chance to take off. 3 days is (was) plenty of time. I've seen successful counter wagons formed in less than an hour if the town has its shit together. Once again no one is really saying "no I don't want to lynch aptil" it's all "well I don't want to split the vote". If everyone actually voted instead of wavering we might have been able to push it through.
I don't necessarily disagree with your case on aptil, but I do think it was pretty obvious with the game state the way it was at the time that that was a wagon that was going nowhere.
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Post Post #1606 (isolation #50) » Tue Mar 25, 2014 10:11 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1599, Snork wrote:
You're scummy both for townreading Talah and pushing the Luca wagon; Talah is not fucking townie in the least and to me, you'd have to be stupid, blind or scum to be on any other wagon.

Well to me, you'd have to be stupid, blind or scum to be this short-sighted.
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Post Post #1613 (isolation #51) » Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:12 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1609, Snork wrote:
In post 1606, Damon_Gant wrote:Well to me, you'd have to be stupid, blind or scum to be this short-sighted.
Why is it short-sighted? I know my alignment and I know that he's wrong. Which means either he's scum who is purposely trying to make me a viable lynch option or he's town with extremely unreliable reads. Given his join date and the way people have talked about his experience/skill, which do you think is more likely?
What? I was responding to:
In post 1599, Snork wrote:You're scummy both for townreading Talah and pushing the Luca wagon; Talah is not fucking townie in the least and to me, you'd have to be stupid, blind or scum to be on any other wagon.
Your alignment is irrelevant to this. Your short-sightedness is that you fail to see how people might prefer a Luca lynch to a talah lynch.

Also, talah, if you're town, get that vote off yourself. If you don't want to play anymore, then vote Luca, see how the day pans out and then replace out tomorrow if that's still the case. Don't screw the game up.

As I've said before, I will do what's necessary to avoid a no lynch, and that includes moving my vote to talah. However, for now I see no need to do this and instead would call on those who are not on talah or Luca to choose between these, because we're not lynching anyone else today. A vote elsewhere is a vote for no lynch, which is a horrible outcome for town.
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Post Post #1668 (isolation #52) » Wed Mar 26, 2014 11:43 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

talah L-2
Luca L-3

26ish hours to go

BiPolar, pisskop (who seems to be missing), penguin_alien, you guys are responsible for this. Do something.
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Post Post #1683 (isolation #53) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:48 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

@Mod - looks like you forgot to change the time until deadline in the last votecount. It's closer than that!
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Post Post #1684 (isolation #54) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:50 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1683, Damon_Gant wrote:
@Mod - looks like you forgot to change the time until deadline in the last votecount. It's closer than that!
Strike that, it isn't, just I didn't realise that that time had the power to change by itself! Ignore me!
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Post Post #1686 (isolation #55) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:21 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1685, Luca Blight wrote:I've been accused of lurking this game
No, I will not allow you to frame it like that. You
have
lurked. A pointless back and forth with talah, coupled with confronting a couple of your wagoners does not change that.
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Post Post #1696 (isolation #56) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:57 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1692, AngryPidgeon wrote:Him saying that he would have played better as scum felt genuine to me, partly cause I agree that its easier to just fake it as sucm whereas town actually has to put in effort to figure things out.
Scum still have to make the effort to form a coherent case. Sure, town have got the thought process of trying to figure out who's scum, but scum have to go through the process of thinking how every post they make is going to reflect on them. I don't buy your argument.

Playing the way Luca has is a very legitimate tactic as scum - just coasting through Day 1 while providing town with absolutely nothing. There are lots of players here who would have happily let him get away with it.
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Post Post #1707 (isolation #57) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:19 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1701, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 1696, Damon_Gant wrote:Scum still have to make the effort to form a coherent case. Sure, town have got the thought process of trying to figure out who's scum, but scum have to go through the process of thinking how every post they make is going to reflect on them. I don't buy your argument.

Playing the way Luca has is a very legitimate tactic as scum - just coasting through Day 1 while providing town with absolutely nothing. There are lots of players here who would have happily let him get away with it.
1)
I don't think its conclusive evidence for him being town, its just a weird/unlikely argument for scum to make IMO.

2)
Aptil and Bipolar and somewhat RM (although shes posted more things recently IIRC) have also coasted through the Day with limited contributions.

3)
Unless you think Luca was doing it intentionally (we're back to this discussion apparently) which is POSSIBLE but who knows, I find it more likely he was just apathetic about the game or busy which is also not a tell.
I've numbered your points, and will now respond:

1) I disagree, but there's nothing more to say on this

2) Correct, but as I said to Luca earlier -
In post 1297, Damon_Gant wrote:Ok, firstly it's not just your lack of activity, but your absolute refusal to scumhunt when you do post, your contradictory posts, wagon-following, and fencesitting.
My case on Luca is not wholly based on inactivity.

3) If I'm quite honest with you, I have my doubts that Luca's lurking has been tactical in nature, at least not at first. However, it's certainly possible it has been, and I consider that to be far more logical than this idea that his bad play somehow suggests he's town.

Addendum: And is that a hammer?
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Post Post #1711 (isolation #58) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:04 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Ahh, not a hammer, Nero confused me moving his vote from Luca to talah and then back to Luca. This town is very much split.
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Post Post #1720 (isolation #59) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 9:07 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1719, Luca Blight wrote:And you can't slate me for lurking when you're arguably the biggest lurker in this game.
This guy is scum.
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Post Post #1729 (isolation #60) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:29 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1728, AngryPidgeon wrote:Intent to hammer if nothing has happened in a few hours.
Honestly, what are you actually waiting for? The sky to cave in? Luca or talah to confess? The only thing interesting that can possibly happen now is perhaps a response to this:
In post 1726, talah wrote:
In post 1642, Luca Blight wrote:I'm not going to pretend I have read every post, because I haven't, but I have followed the thread loosely and
have an idea of who I think might be leaning town/scum
. It's 23:10 where I am and I need to get up at 5am for work, so I'm off to bed. I will post more Tomorrow.
Can you actually do the bolded please.
but I wouldn't hold your breath.
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Post Post #1731 (isolation #61) » Thu Mar 27, 2014 11:48 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1730, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 1729, Damon_Gant wrote:Honestly, what are you actually waiting for?
A talah lynch, but it doesn't look like its happening.
I did mean to also point out that with Luca at L-1, it's unlikely that people are going to transfer their vote across to talah.
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Post Post #1754 (isolation #62) » Sun Mar 30, 2014 12:48 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Vote: RachMarie


Semi-meaningful, mainly for her awful hop onto the Luca wagon, but I will be reevaluating my positions in this game properly in the next 24 hours or so.
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Post Post #1809 (isolation #63) » Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:06 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1801, Snork wrote:Oh I forgot to explain why DG is italicized in my updated list.

Towards the end of the day, his posts became much better, and I was seeing some subtle town things in the way he was saying things that I didn't think scum would think to adjust.

He's in the could be scum list only because of the flips. I'd like to actually talk with him a bit today and sort that out, but gut tells me he is the most likely to be town out of those listed in could be scum and scum.
If you have anything in particular you'd like to ask then feel free.

The fact that Luca and talah were both town tells me that we as a town were way off the mark in Day 1. I'm very much trying to look at everything through new eyes. The people I think I most want to hear from are penguin_alien and TheWayItEnds, who come in as replacements of very mixed bag players. My suspicions of 4nx and aptil from yesterday still hold. ThAd is a player who I have very mixed feelings about and I need to reread his ISO. I'm not delighted with the multitude of town reads for mastin, who has done really nothing to convince me she's town. SnowStorm and RachMarie are players I need to see more of I think to know.

Unvote: RachMarie


I don't like having my vote on nobody, but I think for the second that's the only honest position, at least until I've done a thorough reread of a few ISOs and heard from penguin_alien and TheWayItEnds.

As a question to everyone and anyone: Does Zdenek's flip have any effect on your read of Bipolar's slot, considering the fake vig? And in WIFOM territory, does the fact that Zdenek was killed have any effect on your read of Bipolar?
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Post Post #1811 (isolation #64) » Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:34 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1809, Damon_Gant wrote:My suspicions of 4nx and aptil from yesterday still hold.
Yikes, I've been very negligent, and accidentally missed a page of reading. In light of aptil's claim my suspicion is very much off him. And yes, I've read all of that page now.
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Post Post #1833 (isolation #65) » Mon Mar 31, 2014 8:54 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1832, penguin_alien wrote:UNVOTE: aptil

Town claim is town.
Also town reading ThAd and 4nxi3ty for seeing what I did yesterday.
Mild town read on mastin2 for not trying to blend into a wagon.

Nero feels slightly town for pushing forward on his read. I'm actually thinking that I want to look at what happened after both leading wagons were claimed VT. Who tried to push the wagons toward potential unknown PRs.

As far as other analysis goes, I don't really have much insightful. Two wagons on known VTs, not much need for scum to stick their necks out. Day of travel means I've about hit the wall, but I'll see what I see when I look for momentum shifts after the claims tomorrow.
What do you mean by the bolded part?

And with regards to your post, how about sticking your neck on the line a bit with some scum reads rather than just trying to form a little group of buddies. In particular I'm always suspicious of someone who calls the person tunnelling them town without very good reason.
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Post Post #1843 (isolation #66) » Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:09 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1841, AngryPidgeon wrote:In hindsight, this looks an awful lot like just assigning scum motivation to Thad's vote arbitrarily.
Well if something does not have town motivation then one should presume and hunt for scum motivation, don't you think?

My stance on ThAd right now is confused - but I think that's partially because he has a tone that will always leave me feeling uneasy but I think ultimately I return to my old read of him leaning town. I agree with you AP about his recent wall, which I thought read excellently.

I'm really struggling in this game now and I'd like to vote Rach but I just can't in good conscience. The only problem I have with Rach is the hop onto Luca's wagon, which was not great, but would've been a lot worse I think if Luca had flipped scum. I get that people also don't like her post justifying that, but I honestly don't mind it. It was a much attacked post, so she tried to explain it, and I dont' feel the explanation is awful.

I'm in a very bad place with this game right now, and I think that can only mean that scum are hiding in amongst the players I've been presuming town. Literally my only real scumread right now is 4nx and I consider that to be an unacceptable situation. I am working very hard to resolve it.
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Post Post #1949 (isolation #67) » Wed Apr 02, 2014 2:31 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 1917, AngryPidgeon wrote:
In post 1843, Damon_Gant wrote:Well if something does not have town motivation then one should presume and hunt for scum motivation, don't you think?
I can see potential town motivation behind it though? Admiral doesn't want to lynch a townread. Votes a scumread. Mastin did the same shit. Snork and Snow did the same shit.
But why vote for someone so close to deadline who had no chance of being lynched? As for listing a bunch of other people who did the same, yes, well I think most of them came off looking worse for it as well. I'm not impressed by the standing off of the main wagons and the question to me is just how many of these people you listed are scum. Standing off from the wagons as mastin did is such a safe, safe strategy for scum. As for those who attempted to start flashwagons - it confuses the town by spreading the vote between more people and has a nice chance of exposing power roles.
In post 1737, mastin2 wrote:VOTE: Damon Gant.

It's not vanity.
It's
sanity
.
It
was
vanity, as far as I'm concerned the whole charade of staying off the main wagons was vanity for all those involved, and it's the kind of posturing that I am wary of.

There's more to come, but later, as my time is limited right now.
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Post Post #2042 (isolation #68) » Fri Apr 04, 2014 3:03 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2005, mastin2 wrote:
In post 1949, Damon_Gant wrote:It
was
vanity, as far as I'm concerned the whole charade of staying off the main wagons was vanity for all those involved, and it's the kind of posturing that I am wary of.
Except I was right:
Both wagons were on town.

Thus, attempting to get a wagon
not
on one of them wasn't vanity; it was sanity.
Wow, I didn't realise this! Both wagons did turn out to be on town! Well I'll be blown. Of course, you placed your vote on another incorrect wagon so whatever. As I said, I think not being on either of those two wagons on Day 1 does not even begin to give town cred of any sort. The most likely people to be "right" about that sort of thing are scum in my opinion.

Later in that post you did say possibly the first thing I agree with you about though. SnowStorm's recent posting has been very scummy in my eyes. This is a lead I'm going to chase down and try and pinpoint exactly
what
has changed about SnowStorm's posting that has made me feel like this, because I don't find reasonless accusations of scumminess to be very useful.

My time lately has been limited, but that changes dramatically in approximately 3 hours where my time suddenly becomes near unlimited for the next couple of weeks, so maybe then I'll be able to crack this game.
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Post Post #2077 (isolation #69) » Fri Apr 04, 2014 1:07 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Ok, I think I've kinda picked out the main gist of my problem with SnowStorm recently. What it is is this shocking flip for being very much an offensive player to suddenly very defensive indeed - all triggered by not very many votes. Look at this ISO, and I think you'll notice the split in tone between posts before ~ #35 and those after. I don't believe that defensiveness in itself is a scumtell - I think it's a trait. When a player starts to exhibit defensiveness quite dramatically and so suddenly, that's when my suspicions arise.

The other main problem I have with SnowStorm is this post yesterday - where he moves his vote from talah to ThAd
In post 1483, SnowStorm wrote:
In post 1479, Snork wrote:ThAd lynch would be good too, imo.
Let's do it.

Vote: ThAdmiral.
Which isn't too bad by itself but when you consider that the post directly before was a post all about how talah was scum and just a couple of posts before that he said:
In post 1277, SnowStorm wrote:The more I think about talah the better I feel about lynching him.
it just makes the ThAd vote feel really unnatural to me.

My vote is looking for a home and for now I'm happy with this.

Vote: SnowStorm
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Post Post #2123 (isolation #70) » Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:10 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2101, DeasVail wrote:@Damon (and anyone else I guess): Why does SnowStorm as scum stop voting for talah (who is a pretty ideal lynch for scum as he's actually a good player) and change it to ThAdmiral?
A few reasons I can think of:

a) To encourage another wagon and split up town votes more - causing confusion and small potential for no lynch.
b) talah may well be a good player but equally as long as he was in this game an aura of suspicion would have followed him. Keeping a player who a large number of people are suspicious of in the game for a long time can certainly work for scum later.
c) Hunting for PRs - hoping to induce a flashwagon on ThAd.
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Post Post #2157 (isolation #71) » Mon Apr 07, 2014 11:41 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2155, 4nxi3ty wrote:Damon, thoughts on mastin?

btw, so you know, I think your hops on luca, rach, and snowstorm are
interesting
along with mastin's scumread of you.
My thoughts on mastin are that I'm leaning slightly scum - a lot of really odd reads and very keen to dissociate herself from the wagons yesterday. If you'd like to tell me what is so
interesting
about my "hops" (very suggestive word that I don't think fairly portrays the very different ways I entered those 3 wagons) then I'd be more than happy to discuss this with you.

As I'm struggling to provide too much meaningful content to this game at this juncture, here's a list of where I roughly stand on every player. Hopefully it sparks some discussion, and I'm happy to discuss any point in more detail.

4nx
: has been a consistent scumread of mine but something about his play today and reading his meta has made me feel meh.
weak scum


AP
: Didn't think he came off well from his argument with Snork defending Rach. Everything else is fine though.
null


aptil
: The claim.
strong town


DV
: If some players have a naturally scummy tone, I feel like DV has a naturally town tone. When I carefully try to discard that,
null


Egg
: Not much to say about Egg, but about the predecessor I myself liked the fake vig incident and am
moderate town


mastin
: I've said what I had to say about mastin.
leaning scum


Nero
: Has tunnelled the Mister Rogers/penguin_alien slot. Really difficult for me to get a read on.
null


penguin_alien
: People started strong townreading this slot early on - including myself - but it got to the point where so many did this I felt uneasy. penguin_alien came in, played a lot less like obvtown, and yet now I feel happier about this slot because the contribution seems more genuinely protown, at least to me.
leaning town


PeregrineV
: I definitely felt like he was town on Day 1, but I'm struggling to locate the posts in his ISO that lead me to this. I've used the phrase "provocative in the right ways" before and that's roughly how I felt here I think. So far Day 2 he has been meh.
leaning town


projectmatt
: Coasting hard. Sometimes posts like town, sometimes not so much like in #605 where he claims there were "bigger fish to fry" than Luca on Day 1 but fails to name anyone.
null


RachMarie
: The worst vote on the Luca wagon yesterday. Calls pisskop "the scum off both wagons" on Day 1 - but pisskop wasn't really around to make a decision on these wagons so how he can be implicated for this is absurd. Nully play otherwise,
leaning scum


Snork
: Not a fan of bjc, the predecessor to his slot, but Snorks seems protown to me - genuine scumhunting.
moderate town


SnowStorm
: My vote is here for reasons I have stated.
moderate scum


ThAd
: As he noted in #2114, my read on him has been here and there. I think it's a matter of a problem I have with his posting style. He's made some good posts, and I'm
leaning town
right now.

TWIE
: I could not get a read off pisskop for the life of me - but he made me feel uneasy. TWIE also makes me feel very uneasy for similar reasons. This excess of sarcasm. His last post, #2117 is horrible - and perhaps the one post of TWIE's I can point to and say that it's definitely indicative of scum.
leaning scum


Yates
: Honestly no idea what to think of this, and the subject of my next detailed ISO read.
null


Lots of "leaning" going on, but this is just honesty. Few of my reads are particularly strong at this juncture - but then from my observation I think the same is true of most people in this game.
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Post Post #2181 (isolation #72) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:39 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2158, Nero Cain wrote:Gant, I have a few issues with that post.

#1-I think I've done more than tunnel MR/PA
#2-I wouldn't give Aptil a strong town read and I think its really strange. Can you elaborate on this a little more.
#3-"penguin_alien came in, played a lot less like obvtown, and yet now I feel happier about this slot because the contribution seems more genuinely protown"????
#1: I need to ISO you, you can go on my "to ISO" list with Yates. Of course you've done more than that, but a very large percentage of your posting has been tunnelling that slot.

#2: It's hard to elaborate really, aptil's claim of a one-shot vig feels thoroughly convincing to me. Obviously if another night occurred with two kills my mind would be immediately changed. I know there is the possibility of a one-shot killer in the mafia but I think it's highly unlikely and so for now aptil is as sure a town as there is in the game in my mind. Aptil's posting has been anything but town but that's by the by to the more concrete evidence.

#3: Hmm, sometimes my words could be clearer. Mister Rogers posted a lot, and with enthusiasm, which convinced lots of people he was town very quickly. penguin_alien has done neither of these things, but in my opinion is playing more effectively and helping the town out more, meaning that I'm happier with that slot now than I was by the time Mister Rogers left it.
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Post Post #2183 (isolation #73) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:47 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2179, DeasVail wrote:
In post 2157, Damon_Gant wrote:DV: If some players have a naturally scummy tone, I feel like DV has a naturally town tone.
What are you basing this on?
Nothing too specific, just cursory glancing through your meta plus just the fact that whilst I've felt a sense that you are town throughout the game, I'm yet to pinpoint anything concrete in your posting that has led me to feel this way.
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Post Post #2255 (isolation #74) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 11:47 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2163, TheWayItEnds wrote:
In post 2157, Damon_Gant wrote:
TWIE
: I could not get a read off pisskop for the life of me - but he made me feel uneasy. TWIE also makes me feel very uneasy for similar reasons.
This excess of sarcasm.
His last post, #2117 is horrible - and perhaps the one post of TWIE's I can point to and say that it's definitely indicative of scum.
leaning scum

I would just stop reading my posts then because I'm serving up an all you can eat sarcasm buffet.
That you certainly are. While I acknowledge that it's undoubtedly a part of the way you post, it's your distinct unhelpfulness that has bothered me of late. I completely understand why there's a wagon on you.

Here's some updated reads based on my latest ISO trawls:
Nero: Reading his Day 2 play in ISO I quite like it actually - it's less tunnelly and feels like he's making an effort to move the game along. I don't agree with many of his reads but it feels like he believes in them.
leaning town

Yates: Meh, still hard to get a read on this. His posts can be quite contentless at times - but I've seen that throughout his meta. Seems very keen to push against the tiniest blemishes to his name. Really not sure.
null


At this stage I think that I could be interested in lynches of SnowStorm, TWIE, or 4nx. I also have slight scumreads on mastin and Rach as mentioned earlier but they're in the second tier of my list and I think would be less beneficial to the town to lynch right now.
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Post Post #2305 (isolation #75) » Thu Apr 10, 2014 12:03 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2303, ThAdmiral wrote:I'm not moving my vote. I'm not moving it if it kills me.

Because I'd rather be dead than exist in a game where people like you can act like you do and get away with it.

Nothing you say makes any sense. You are lying about fucking EVERYTHING.

And when I flip town anyone who is
paying attention
, anyone who has
any sense
, anyone who
uses any logic whatsoever
will know that you are scum and lynch your scummy ass.

Sadly for this game that probably means no one will vote you.
You seem to think that you are going to be lynched. That's confusing to me, as your wagon consists of someone who has just replaced in and may well move their vote, Rach who let's be fair, nobody is following, and SnowStorm who is one of the other main wagons. It's hardly a convincing set of voters. Why the big deal?

And it's 80 hours to go people. We need to start making some decisions. I like the SnowStorm and TWIE wagons but have no interest in the ThAd one.
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Post Post #2420 (isolation #76) » Fri Apr 11, 2014 1:37 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

PeregrineV has done a lot to further his town credentials since I last posted I think. Not sure why people are suspecting him. I have basically no understanding of the case on penguin_alien. Projectmatt I can understand more with his horribly non-commital posting, someone said something about "not making enemies", and that's pretty much what I think. However:

Unvote: SnowStorm
Vote: TheWayItEnds


This is the wagon I like. I think Peregrine did a lot to advance this case. I always felt uncomfortable with pisskop but I couldn't quite place why. With TWIE's play being scummy in my opinion, it has definitely cleared up my feeling about this slot.
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Post Post #2435 (isolation #77) » Fri Apr 11, 2014 7:44 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2421, SnowStorm wrote:
In post 2420, Damon_Gant wrote:PeregrineV has done a lot to further his town credentials since I last posted I think. Not sure why people are suspecting him. I have basically no understanding of the case on penguin_alien. Projectmatt I can understand more with his horribly non-commital posting, someone said something about "not making enemies", and that's pretty much what I think. However:

Unvote: SnowStorm
Vote: TheWayItEnds


This is the wagon I like. I think Peregrine did a lot to advance this case. I always felt uncomfortable with pisskop but I couldn't quite place why. With TWIE's play being scummy in my opinion, it has definitely cleared up my feeling about this slot.
What did Peregrine do to advance the case on Way? I'm not seeing it.
I guess specifically I liked #2315 about pisskop. It's a little confusing because I feel aptil's slot is town - but it just helped me place my worry on pisskop. I was already perfectly worried about TWIE, but feeling like both he and his predecessor were scummy was an important step in my mind. It was too much to say Peregrine advanced the TWIE case a lot, he just advanced my thinking on it a lot.
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Post Post #2631 (isolation #78) » Sun Apr 13, 2014 12:17 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

I will be back before deadline, in approximately 4 hours. I will switch to mastin then if necessary - mastin has been on or close to my scumlist all game and I'd not be disappointed to lynch her, but I'd prefer to wait and see if any quick momentum builds on TWIE first.

JOAT claims are interesting and I will give my opinion tomorrow on these.
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Post Post #2653 (isolation #79) » Tue Apr 15, 2014 6:44 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

I was suspecting AP overnight because of mastin interactions combined with play that made me uneasy yesterday. Snork's claim confirms things for me in my mind.

Vote: AngryPigeon


RachMarie is surely a JOAT. SiX could be scum. TWIE is probably town now.
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Post Post #2679 (isolation #80) » Tue Apr 15, 2014 7:38 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In my opinion it is not pertinent to worry about the second kill until AP flips.
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Post Post #2708 (isolation #81) » Wed Apr 16, 2014 2:48 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Nobody seems to be speaking. Can we not just lynch AP? He's scum - the ramifications of this can be discussed tomorrow based on what flavour of scum he is. Let snork say his piece and then I think we're good to go.
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Post Post #2715 (isolation #82) » Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:25 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2712, Yates wrote:
In post 2708, Damon_Gant wrote:Can we not just lynch AP?
Can we just wait for Snork?
We have two weeks and this lynch will go down in less than two HOURS. Plus, like 1/3 of the player base hasn't even posted yet today.
In post 2708, Damon_Gant wrote:Nobody seems to be speaking. Can we not just lynch AP? He's scum - the ramifications of this can be discussed tomorrow based on what flavour of scum he is.
Let snork say his piece and then I think we're good to go.
Yates, you are a serial skimmer. Note the bolded parts. I guess we should wait for everyone to say their bit...
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Post Post #2836 (isolation #83) » Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:18 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2834, SnowStorm wrote:I'm not really a fan of letting claimed-scum chat for too long.
Completely agree with this. I've noted that people are being influenced by what AP is saying. Being influenced by the words of confirmed scum cannot be a good thing. Ignore him. Everyone has spoken now so lynch away.
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Post Post #2851 (isolation #84) » Thu Apr 17, 2014 2:04 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Never noticed there was a d in AngryPidgeon's name. What madness is this? Also, hammer him.
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Post Post #2877 (isolation #85) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 8:09 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

After overnight reading of all dead scum's ISOs, I think I've identified ThAd as very potentially a member of the scumteam. Peregrine is also implicated by this kind of analysis, but to a lesser extent. I'll present the case in a more substantive way when I'm in a non-procrastinating mood.

Also we still have the very pressing issue of an unaccounted for kill yesterday. I think in this case, it's true that the instinctive answer is the correct one, and that SiX is in fact the SK.
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Post Post #2883 (isolation #86) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 9:56 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2878, SiX wrote:While I don't get why you take a Mafia's last words into account I'm glad that you suspect me of being the SK.
That favours the town very well.
Where did I say that what AP had to say factored into my thinking at all? It did not. I do not believe that mafia rolecopped you or whatever nonsense AP spouted. I just believe you're SK because the second kill came up yesterday, and you're the most logical explanation for it.
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Post Post #2889 (isolation #87) » Sat Apr 19, 2014 11:30 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2885, TheWayItEnds wrote:This is all useless.

We arent lynching 6 today.
Why not?
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Post Post #2911 (isolation #88) » Sun Apr 20, 2014 8:51 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

After a further reread of scum ISOs I have a slightly changed position. I think I can build the most coherent case on Peregrine rather than ThAd based on interactions. I'm busy today and tomorrow, but for now the basic premise of the case is that there are strong similarities between the ways that the known scum treated each other and how they treated Peregrine.

AP - gives constant non-commital reads on Peregrine, exactly like he does with mastin.
mastin - Peregrine is stated as a moderate town read several times, with a similar treatment given to AP and Yates. mastin is known for being anti-bussing so this is unsurprising.
Yates - Has lots of discussions with Peregrine with little accusation - exactly as with AP.

There are other specific posts that I could easily interpret as scumbuddies interacting as well and I will get to these later.
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Post Post #2920 (isolation #89) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 7:10 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2918, PeregrineV wrote:You have 12 days, so you could actually do this with all living players.
I didn't just pick your name out of a hat. I have looked at this with every player - that is how I ended up with a shortlist of yourself and ThAd, both of you who I previously believed to be town. I will openly post my interaction analysis on each player in the coming days to show why I came to this conclusion though.
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Post Post #2922 (isolation #90) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 8:12 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2921, PeregrineV wrote:But, you should also know that Mastin will bus exactly one of his teammates.
This is something I've thought about, but in this case I'm not seeing the bus. I've moved on from thinking SnowStorm is scum, and this is all I could think on this front. If there was a 5th scum then perhaps someone like SnowStorm fits in. Mastin was not on top form this game though and was quite flippy on her reads, so I definitely think that Yates and especially AP's interactions are more interesting
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Post Post #2924 (isolation #91) » Mon Apr 21, 2014 9:50 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2923, PeregrineV wrote:Well, it's there. It was pointed out a while back about he doesn't bus. Next few Mastin scum-games, sure enough, a single bussed scum.
So who is it this game then?
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Post Post #2949 (isolation #92) » Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:32 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

There are 11 players alive: Damon_Gant, DeasVail, Egg, penguin_alien, PeregrineV, projectmatt, SiX, Snork, SnowStorm, ThAdmiral, TheWayItEnds

My conclusions have been made by a process of elimination.

Damon_Gant: Obviously I know where I am
Snork: As close to confirmed town as we have.
DeasVail: Confirmed by Snork
TWIE: Confirmed by Snork
SiX: I highly doubt SiX is of the scumteam for fairly obvious reasons - very possibly the SK.

Leaving 6 candidates for scumteam: Egg, penguin_alien, PeregrineV, projectmatt, SnowStorm, ThAdmiral

Egg: AP and Yates both attacked this slot - particularly telling is how Yates pushed to make sure we were aware the infamous "fake-vig incident" was not a towntell. Read the relevant portions of this post. Mastin went the other way on this slot and constantly said it was town - but then that was just going along with the general grain of the town I think. I definitely feel like there's enough evidence in the scum ISOs to confidently say Egg is town. Plus I've seen nothing scummy from this slot at all.

projectmatt: Coasting badly, as I mentioned earlier. However, after thought and consideration matt is definitely my most gut town. He's made some nice posts, particularly earlier on. I also feel like Matt would have posted more if scum - and been more of an active lurker rather than just a lurker. I have no meta evidence to back this up, it's just what I think. Mastin pushed matt as very strongly town. Mastin also did that with both talah and Luca on day 1. I doubt mastin would make such a strong read on a buddy. Yes, all of this is basically just justifying the fact that projectmatt-town is a gut read for me, but there you go. I'd be open to changing my mind on this but for now I think a lot of people think the same anyway.

That leaves 4 more interesting candidates in my opinion. That's all I have the energy for tonight so I'll continue tomorrow.
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Post Post #2988 (isolation #93) » Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:42 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Yeah, so don't have the energy to finish my analysis now in detail. Will do this tomorrow as a priority.

As a spoiler for what the essential contents will be:
I don't see PA scum
SnowStorm is more believable as mastin's "one bus" that PV said - but not sure that it works with other mafia interactions
ThAd is saved mostly by Yates' strong attack on him - else I would almost certainly be thinking ThAd scum
PV is no. 1 candidate for scum and his play today is horrendous as Snork indicated in 2986

I think PV is going to be the lynch, but I won't vote him until I've said my full piece (and if it's going to make him L-1, I'd probably wait for a claim also)
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Post Post #2989 (isolation #94) » Thu Apr 24, 2014 10:54 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 2973, SiX wrote:AP(scum) started rampaging on me as soon as the round began due to the '2 shots'. The one who are first to bring something like that up, has a huge potential of being scum sharing their reasoning for the nightkill, to influence others the way they set it up > And see, he was a scum.
Completely disagree with your reasoning here. Sure, AP-scum wanted to put immediate pressure on someone who was not of the scumteam. Why does that mean the scumteam made the kill? It could just as easily have been an actual SK.
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Post Post #3105 (isolation #95) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:24 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Cannot believe that matt did not claim that shot. That changes things - no need for an SK anymore.

PV really needs to get lynched. He's all bravado and no substance. I wish I'd have seen it earlier.
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Post Post #3131 (isolation #96) » Sun Apr 27, 2014 11:10 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

I hate to kinda prod-dodge, but I've had a very tough couple of days. If things remain difficult, I may be forced to make the decision to replace out in the next couple of days, but I really wish to avoid that.

Vote: PeregrineV


Back to L-2, I don't see many permutations in this game where PV is not scum.
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Post Post #3133 (isolation #97) » Sun Apr 27, 2014 1:19 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Just came here to apologise for my last post, I've kinda reflected and realised it probably wasn't right for me to mention the possibility of replacing like that. With a couple of hours to calm down from the situations, I've realised I really don't need to replace out, I just need to sort out the way I'm looking at other things in my life. I hope to not have to even allude to real-life situations again like this because that's something I generally don't like.
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Post Post #3162 (isolation #98) » Tue Apr 29, 2014 12:27 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Some more interactions stuff.

penguin_alien
: When MR was in the game and being the supposedly "obvtown" player, the scum were only too happy to play along, mastin in particular. I think this is because scum did not want to get on the wrong side of a town player who was completely dominating the conversation - Mister Rogers was a valuable town best friend to have at the time. Look at mastin's ISO post #0 and #1 when referring to Mister Rogers, it's almost sickening the buddying that's going on here! With PA they (and everyone else) seemed to revert to a more neutral position on this slot because ultimately PA was less imposing and so was a less valuable friend for the scum. By moving their reads back to null on PA they're helping to reopen PA as a potential lynch option. So I believe that these interactions are indicative of PA town, and I think PA's posting has been generally town too.

ThAd
: So I believed that ThAd was town before today, but ThAd has been a constant point of confusion for me throughout this game. On analyis of scum interactions, he continues to be just that. At the start of the day I thought I'd got him. Mastin constantly reinforces him as a strong town read, which is a good start. With AP there are a few posts that set alarm bells ringing. This is exactly the kind of light meaningless suspicion I expect to see scum put on each other. The offhand mention of compromise lynching him in that "Mason QT" thing also seemed similarly weak. In AP's scumlist he's in the "scummy" section, surrounded by people who are now confirmed or probably town. That's certainly not how AP dealt with his other scumbuddies but IF AP bussed anyone, this shows that ThAd was almost certainly the bus. I'd really recommend searching through AP's posts for his interactions with ThAd because it might make you understand my suspicions more. Then there's the unfortunate part. Yates. First he busses mastin. He helps the AP wagon along, and as it's clear that AP is being lynched, he's already throwing suspicion on ThAd. This definitely feels to me like a bus too far, and it worries me, which is why I swapped PV and ThAd around near the start of the day and now have PV as my strongest scumread.

As usual this post has turned into a horrendous waffly mess so the gist is that I think PA is town and ThAd may not be. PV is obviously coming with content now, but it had to be coaxed out and I certainly cannot forsee myself moving my vote because the other 3 suspects from my POV are a long way behind him in scumminess. I still need to look at SS but I know that that will be even more complicated!
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Post Post #3174 (isolation #99) » Thu May 01, 2014 12:17 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

As everyone seems to be doing this
From most scummy to least scummy: PV, ThAd, SS, PA, Egg

I wouldn't deny that I've been "flip-floppy" ThAd, but I have no idea how that is consistent with me being scum.
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Post Post #3189 (isolation #100) » Thu May 01, 2014 11:30 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

Just a few tidbits I want to say on these last couple of posts about myself:
In post 3186, fferyllt wrote: - this establishes a pattern, something also in 118 of "what I'm gonna do later", which pings a little but could be personality/style.
I have to apologise for this. I've been doing the whole "later I'll do x" thing quite intentionally, and for good reason. As I've admittedly previously, I am a massive procrastinator. By declaring things that I intend to do on the thread it makes me far more likely to actually do them.
In post 3186, fferyllt wrote: could be a scumslip, not reading the opening post well enough to notice the 2nd kill.
Just a quick correction here - I was being sarcastic towards mastin in this post. I certainly did not miss the 2nd kill. I was suggesting that it was obnoxious and unnecessary of mastin to point out that she was right that they were both town, and that this did nothing to enhance her town cred.
In post 3187, PeregrineV wrote:Issues with Damon- Yates was a null read the whole game, with stated intent to research further, which never happened.
It's true that I never made a comprehensive post on Yates, but I did in fact research him further.
Statement of intent
After research
In post 3187, PeregrineV wrote: Back to 4nxiety (), then BAM, Damon is town () with never a mentiopn by Gant of this change in Mastin's read on him.
Obviously I noticed this flip of opinion on me, but it seemed like it was legitimately substantiated by my list of reads. It was nowhere near as suspicious as mastin's flip of read on talah, not in my mind.
In post 3187, PeregrineV wrote: Gant also joins Mastin on the , but when Mastin comes up for a lynch, Gant never votes his null read ().
I knew as soon as mastin flipped that this post would be used against me by someone who wanted an easy case. I personally can't believe that you actually think this is indicative of me being scum. It's a really obvious thing to point out, but look at the very next post by a player that by everyone's reckoning right now is town. I declined to vote for mastin at that point because I was still more interested in a TWIE lynch and wanted to give it a chance to happen. By the time I came back the hammer had occurred.
In post 3187, PeregrineV wrote:As far as I can find, despite continued Mastin attacks, Gant never defends against or refutes any of it.
And this is where I believe you yourself definitely do not believe your own case. Mastin never made a point against me that I could refute. It was always just quote a post, then state as a fact that I'm scum without reason. At first I reacted with bemusement but eventually I opted to ignore her because there was simply nothing constructive I could say. To what specific post of mastin's do you think I could have responded constructively?

PV, I can tell that you don't believe your case on me. In your attempt to deflect pressure from yourself, you've examined where the wind is going and noticed recent posts tentatively suggesting a lynch on me. You have searched my posts with a confirmation bias. This is obvious based on the fact that most of the points you have made are either very easy points to make, or very clearly not good points. This manner of "scumhunting" is indicative of scum, and as I have said earlier, I do not see many permutations left where you are not scum.
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Post Post #3211 (isolation #101) » Fri May 02, 2014 9:35 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Hang on a second.
In post 3209, PeregrineV wrote: Also, no attack on the Damon_Gant townread given.
In post 1732, mastin2 wrote: The DG/pisskop reads also need explanation.
Or am I misinterpreting what you were saying PV?

As usual at the conclusion of the day I find myself saying that I'm happy where my vote is, but I will move it to *insert other wagon here* (in this case ThAd) if necessary. I will certainly be about close to the deadline.
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Post Post #3220 (isolation #102) » Fri May 02, 2014 10:18 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 3215, PeregrineV wrote:Mastin wants an explanation of why snork lists you & TWIE as town, but does not provide one on his own. He does, however try to explain why the scumreads are wrong. 3 of those flipped town. One was cleared as No-gun. The other is ThAd.

If those were all actual town being misread as scum, there would be no reason to Mastin to disagree with it. He could more easily say, "Yes, I agree", furthering Snork's scumreads on town players.
Ok, I now get what you're saying. It's a fair point.
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Post Post #3225 (isolation #103) » Fri May 02, 2014 10:55 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

TWIE is very much town. Once mastin flipped scum that became pretty clear to me. DV is the false innocent if there is one, but I very much doubt it. If there were a gunless mafia I think that would become clear as the game progresses anyway.
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Post Post #3247 (isolation #104) » Fri May 02, 2014 9:36 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

I think the situation is this:

PV: L-2
ThAd: L-2
Me: L-3

Just over 8 hours to go. Time for us to make a decision. I believe that PV is more likely to flip scum than ThAd but I will acknowledge that PV is contributing a lot more to the game right now.
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Post Post #3250 (isolation #105) » Fri May 02, 2014 10:22 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 3248, TheWayItEnds wrote:So we should keep scum around for longer because he has more posts? Thats.... an interesting way of doing things.
Did I say that? My vote is on PV.
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Post Post #3263 (isolation #106) » Sat May 03, 2014 1:02 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

That is the hammer. I believe it to be very possible that ThAd and Pere are both scum. Good luck.
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Post Post #3268 (isolation #107) » Sat May 03, 2014 2:04 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Wow! That's a result.
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Post Post #3271 (isolation #108) » Sat May 03, 2014 2:24 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

I'll post more thoughts about the game later (because everything in my life is declared to be done later) but here's some stuff.

Town's performance: Middling, not exactly spectacular. A win based on a lot of luck.

My performance: Middling, not exactly spectacular, but better once mastin was lynched. I had AP lined up to be lynched on Day 3 before the gunsmith came in, and Day 4 ThAd was my top suspect going into the day, though I eventually moved onto Peregrine incorrectly. I also avoided lynch, which is not something I used to be competant at when I last played at this site.

Scum performance: Poor. Good players that performed under-par really. Mastin was clearly not on her A-game for one reason or another, and I think she had also left a lot of clues to the other scum in her posts. Yates getting modkilled was the decisive blow. On Day 4 ThAd was evidently disengaged with the game because he knew it was a lost cause.

Mod: Thanks for running a fun game!
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Post Post #3272 (isolation #109) » Sat May 03, 2014 2:27 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Also a shout-out to fferyllt who I would be very tempted to call MVP despite replacing very late in the game and with hindsight at a point when the game was already won for town.
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Post Post #3283 (isolation #110) » Sat May 03, 2014 8:35 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

If the lynch goes through on TWIE on Day 2 and the situation becomes 14 players, 4 scum then it's a different ball-game. I wouldn't call myself qualified to discuss the balance of this game, but I know that the outcome of this particular game was heavily swung in town's favour for many reasons, and so it isn't a good judge of the actual balance.
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Post Post #3313 (isolation #111) » Sat May 03, 2014 10:06 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

The more I look at it, the more I think that the game was not badly balanced, just everything that could go right for town did go right. The gunsmith avoided investigating the mafia ascetic or one of the town vigs. The modkill happened. The way that the JOAT counterclaims occurred made it quite possible to believe that they were both true. The mastin flashlynch turned out to be a hit.

If these things turn out differently then who knows.
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Post Post #3323 (isolation #112) » Sun May 04, 2014 7:12 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

As I couldn't find probabilities for a 16:4 mountainous anywhere I calculated it myself. With random lynching, town win such a game 17.8% of the time. Indeed, to make a 4 scum mountainous theoretically town-sided, you need a staggering 71 town players. Of course we can talk about scumhunting and whatever, but scumhunting's effect is a long, long, long way from balancing a 17.8% win rate. Calling 16:4 mountainous even close to balanced is ludicrous. Power roles are clearly needed here.
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Post Post #3328 (isolation #113) » Sun May 04, 2014 9:14 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

ThAd, it's not only town who are allowed to use logic and experience. Scum can work the game in their favour too. One of the things I've done a lot over the years is pore over any stat I can because I'm fascinated by the question of how effective scumhunting is. I still haven't found or created the perfect data bank to test this but I've seen enough to know two things

1) It's less effective than you think
2) Day 1 lynch is either random or worse than random

I would place the theoretical town win percentage of a balanced mountainous game at ~45%. It's more complicated when you add power roles because skilful players really can use power roles far better than random chance.

I brought up the 4:71 thing just as an amusing stat. Frankly, if that game happened, everyone would be so confused that the lynching would become essentially random.
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Post Post #3329 (isolation #114) » Sun May 04, 2014 9:17 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 3327, BBmolla wrote:I replaced out because I had zero desire to play with Mister Rogers.
Mister Rogers replaced out on Day 1, yet was still only just pipped at the end by Snork as most frequent poster in the game...
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Post Post #3332 (isolation #115) » Sun May 04, 2014 10:19 pm

Post by Damon_Gant »

In post 3331, ThAdmiral wrote:
In post 3328, Damon_Gant wrote:2) Day 1 lynch is either random or worse than random
Well you're wrong.

In any case we're somewhat moving away from the initial issue which is: do you think this game was balanced?
I notice that the newbie stats thing in mafia discussion does run slightly contrary to my statement, which is interesting. I used to have a set of stats for mini normals that were ghastly for Day 1 lynches, if only I could find them.

Anyway, you're right, it is dragging away from the main point. My view on the balance of this game specifically is that it isn't as horribly unbalanced as you think. The town is quite dependent on their gunsmith. If I were to make one change to perfect the balance, it wouldn't be to add a scum, but rather to swap the ascetic for a roleblocker.
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Post Post #3339 (isolation #116) » Mon May 12, 2014 9:12 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

@projectmatt

You did post day 4 though and declined to claim the kill. Admittedly you didn't post much and were maybe hoping to do a more comprehensive post later, but surely the one thing you could've done when you had the chance to post was to claim that kill.
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Post Post #3343 (isolation #117) » Thu May 15, 2014 4:45 am

Post by Damon_Gant »

Pretty much agree with all your points mastin. I hope things are better for you now. I think it's important to remember where mafia ought to be on the priority list (i.e. not high, particularly in bad times). Certainly at one point this game I allowed mafia to exacerbate the problems that I was having in real life and that is a stupid place to be.
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