NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[penguin_alien]

I'll be catching up today; let me know if there's anything in particular you want me to address.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, almost caught up. Will have opinions to share this afternoon.

[penguin_alien]

About 48 hours left. Both wagons are L - 3 by my count.

PA I hope you have something amazing to say.

...doubtful.

Reading this over from the start, my first scum read was aptil. Clicking over to the ISO, nothing there feels towny. Really don't like the choice to analyze the uninvolved players. I have no sense of a reads progression or attempts to engage long-term with other players.

I kind of like talah's posting. mastin's entry doesn't feel right. I like BipolarChemist townreading RachMarie early, given that scum might not make the effort to see that it's her town game.

I'm not town reading Yates, which worries me. Usually his town game feels very town to me, but he's more organized and methodical than I've come to expect from him as town. Not to say that he isn't good as town, but he feels very removed from his points here.

I want to read AP as town, but he feels kind of overblown in his his entrance posts. Looking down the line again, I get the sense that he's pushing a lot with smoke and mirrors. Things like this:

unvote, vote: aptil

Nooooo. Im not having another street racers: Las Vegas.

Also leave me scratching my head. We lynched scum D1 in that game. However we got there.

Screw it, I don't like the leading wagons.

UNVOTE: talah
VOTE: aptil

Yates asked me about Zdenek and pisskop. Zdenek's posts come off as having town motivations. pisskop, less so, but his train of thought as he posts reads as more organic than I'd expect from scum. I don't think he was this loose in Newbie 1462, overall impression. I don't have him as clear town, but I wouldn't lynch him today.

I'd deadline lynch Luca over talah right now for contribution levels/likelihood of being able to read them down the line.

Catch up got delayed with vacation activities, so the game's kind of percolating in my head right now. I like PV for town, and I like some of 4nxi3ty's posts for their willingness to take information and apply context, as when he sorts lurkers beyond, 'scummy, kill.' Also generally think I like ThAd, nothing specific yet.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: aptil
VOTE: Luca

I hate the Luca wagon marginally less than the talah one. I thought there were a couple of people on aptil when I voted; apparently not.

Yates, I'm torn on giving you an unreserved town read. There are places where you sound really town to me, but then it fluctuates between being overkill and not being there. But yeah, you obviously weren't tailoring things to how I read you.

[penguin_alien]

Oh, sorry, I think that was L-1.

[penguin_alien]

Oh, sorry, I think that was L-1.

Why did you feel the need to apologize for this?

We've had claims for days now and there is basically one day until no lynch.

Because it's proper to note when L-1 is hit. I'm aware that the claim's in and we need to hammer somewhere. Doesn't mean one doesn't do things to facilitate other people knowing the lay of the land.

[penguin_alien]

vote:PA

Come on, I know you can be more persuasive than that...

VOTE: aptil

How about a non-crappy wagon today, y/y?

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: aptil

Town claim is town. Also town reading ThAd and 4nxi3ty for seeing what I did yesterday. Mild town read on mastin2 for not trying to blend into a wagon.

Nero feels slightly town for pushing forward on his read. I'm actually thinking that I want to look at what happened after both leading wagons were claimed VT. Who tried to push the wagons toward potential unknown PRs.

As far as other analysis goes, I don't really have much insightful. Two wagons on known VTs, not much need for scum to stick their necks out. Day of travel means I've about hit the wall, but I'll see what I see when I look for momentum shifts after the claims tomorrow.

[penguin_alien]

ThAd lynch would be good too, imo.

Let's do it.

Vote: ThAdmiral.

Eh, scum read. Feels quite half-assed. In conjunction with the part where reading through his ISO, the only real case he makes on ThAd is 675, and things like praising Zdenek's gambit are juxtaposed with not liking that ThAd is praising the Zdenek move. Then he's willing to ressurect this read when he also seems happy to lynch Luca or talah.

VOTE: SnowStorm

UNVOTE: aptil

Town claim is town.

Also town reading ThAd and 4nxi3ty for seeing what I did yesterday.

Mild town read on mastin2 for not trying to blend into a wagon.

Nero feels slightly town for pushing forward on his read. I'm actually thinking that I want to look at what happened after both leading wagons were claimed VT. Who tried to push the wagons toward potential unknown PRs.

As far as other analysis goes, I don't really have much insightful. Two wagons on known VTs, not much need for scum to stick their necks out. Day of travel means I've about hit the wall, but I'll see what I see when I look for momentum shifts after the claims tomorrow.

What do you mean by the bolded part?

And with regards to your post, how about sticking your neck on the line a bit with some scum reads rather than just trying to form a little group of buddies. In particular I'm always suspicious of someone who calls the person tunnelling them town without very good reason.

I mean by the bolded part that they were also trying to actively look beyond the easy wagons. I kind of get that aptil was playing to get off the vig shot and was planning to shoot any counter wagon to a town lynch, which explains the tone of his posts. It was still scummy play day one.

In my experience with town-Nero, he can get kind of fanatical about his scum reads when he's engaged in a game. I wanted to see how fervently he'd push his scum read on me. Answer: enough that I'm not worried about him today.

Scum-wise, I don't like SnowStorm's push on ThAd as discussed above. RachMarie does need to explain her thought process.

I thought he looked pretty town for most of the game. Essentially not the first 5 pages, and not his last 5 pages or so were good. His start and the pages before his exit were questionable.

Not especially.

But i wasn't fully onboard with your reasons for voting MR yesterday, so while I think there are reasons to put naked votes on PA today, I dont think you and I have the same ones.
The end result is a vote on PA, so w/e, but if that exact post had come from someone else I would have liked it more.

So what are your reasons? Since you weren't here to be onboard or not with Nero voting MR yesterday. Because this looks like you stirring the pot to me.

[penguin_alien]

OK, this conversation is really confusing. I'm going to recap to see if I'm following.

Rach and Luca were in a newbie game. She was scum reading Luca there, but someone faked a cop innocent result on him. Rach thought she saw similarities between Luca in the two games, both of which pointed to him being scum, but in the other game she decided to follow the cop result over her read. Here she went with her scum read.

Is that accurate?

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, I think Rach is town here. I'll elaborate tonight, but it's why I thought well of whoever it was who was putting in the work to recognize her town game early on. I've played with her enough that I'm reasonably confident in that read.

[penguin_alien]

@PA: Read on Snork and Snowstorm?

I'm voting SnowStorm. Just skimmed his recent posts, but something feels weird there too. I'll look again after dinner.

Snork was awfully enthusiastic about going after Rach, but his vehemence and anger look hard to fake. Also don't think he and SnowStorm would move together like that at the end of Day One if they're both scum. Tend to think SnowStorm was egging on Snork.

Scum read on SnowStorm, slight town read on Snork. Although I found it interesting that Snork said he'd read games of mine. I'm not that interesting a figure around here, and I'd be shocked if he read games for everyone on a player list of this size. Not sure what to make of that. Navel-gazing/wild conspiracy theories feel like maybe he's scum with people who do know me and I came up overnight in the scum QT for some reason. So now he's trying to explain his insight into me?

[penguin_alien]

If I was so happy with Luca's and talah's lynches why would I vote ThAd?

That's my question. I know why I was hoping for an aptil lynch over either Luca or talah. I don't see your motivation to move away from Luca and talah if you thought there was scum between them.

And why does that make [4nxi3ty and ThAd] town in your eyes? I mean, it's not like they went after harder targets - Aptil is what I'd consider a perfect easy target. So while I'd understand your point if they were going after harder targets with good reason, I don't understand why you think there's town motivation in going after equally easy targets with not very good reasons.

aptil pinged scummy to me from the start of my readthrough. I'm less concerned with the purported ease of target than the ease of wagon. And the validity of said wagon. Luca and talah both looked quite town to me in my catch-up reading.

vote: SnowStorm

fairly certain snow is attempting to tie himself to me by presenting an intentional wishywashy read: [...]

Why would I want to tie myself with you? What do you even mean with that? Why would I use "wishy-washy" reads to achieve that? And if you were so certain that I was attempting to tie myself to you, why didn't you wait for me do fulfill that attempt so that you'd have something more than just speculation to vote me for?

RAWRs cans I interject this rach detour?

ThAd lynch would be good too, imo.

Let's do it.

Vote: ThAdmiral.

probably

totally bussing. (how do I feign excitement about wagoning a buddy? "Let's Do It")

Like, seriously?

ya ever since I've been the default push for him I've been like: maybe? and now that he give up on me for a Rach lynch I'm like O_O

I'm not entirely sure on ThAd, but I think it makes sense with snow's play -

I'm sure snow is scum tho

, just look at the way he comments on talah and luca.

Are you?... Because I'm supposedly "attempting to tie myself to you with wishy-washy reads" and "bussing ThAd"? And on this same post you point out you're actually unsure about ThAd, which means you're accusing me of "totally bussing" someone you don't even think is scum?

This whole thought process feels weird to me. First, the tying oneself to another player: presumably 4nxi3ty is coming from a mindset of knowing he's town, so you trying to link yourself to him is you trying to link yourself to a townie. Why do that if a) you aren't sure of the linkee's alignment, and b) there isn't an advantage in doing so. Here, you-scum and him-town means that if you successfully link the two of you, your alignments would be considered as identical, an advantage for your team regardless of who dies first.

And your second part, you're complaining because he thinks your play toward ThAd is indicative of bussing but he's voting you? If he thinks you're both scum, why is voting you first anti-town? If one has a strong read and a weak read, voting the strong read first is logical.

[penguin_alien]

First, why are you answering something that was not adressed to you? Second I find it fascinating that you think my thought process is weirder than 4nx's (Actually, I'm not sure you do, but I'm assuming so because .context.). Third, do you actually think there's validity to 4nx's accusation? That if I was scum I would be using wishy-washy reads to tie myself to him as a mean to look town?

He doesn't think both ThAd and me are scum, that's the point. He's accusing me of "totally bussing" someone whom he doesn't have a scum read on. Tell me how that makes any sense.

First, this is forum Mafia, not an old school etiquette lesson. I can discuss anything brought up in the thread I damn well please, especially when it involves my top scum read. If I was answering questions on someone else's behalf, you *might* have a point. As it stands, you whining about me sticking my nose in just makes me more certain you're scum.

Second and third, yes, I do think there's validity to the idea of associating oneself with a town player as scum. And I see nothing wrong with him considering your behavior toward ThAd. If you flip scum, you'd better believe your interactions would be scrutinized. Had 4nxi3ty used the theory that you were bussing ThAd to justify voting ThAd, I'd have a problem with it. As it stands, nope.

You said you didn't like either the talah or the Luca wagons, hence the vote elsewhere. Some relevant posts (spoilered for length):

Spoiler: End of Day One

VOTE: talah.

I don't care for the meta. I don't think it's a very accurate point when it doesn't add to why he'd play like he has in this game.

Any evidence that talah is scum is present in this game. I think all that's wrong about his play has been pointed out by MR

and lost in between pointless discussion.

Anyone who has doubts should just ISO him. It worked for me.

Here you're free of talah doubts.

Someone else pointed out that all the effort that Talah made in that bru-ha-ha produced no townie contributions from Talah but yet the effort was there. Its just not right.

Exactly, we don't even need to go into particular arguments, talah has the second highest post count and all his effort has been put in overreacting to people and generating mostly pointless arguments. That's not how you play as town.

The more I think about talah the better I feel about lynching him.

Feeling good about the lynch.

ThAd lynch would be good too, imo.

Let's do it.

Vote: ThAdmiral.

And yet.

VOTE: talah.

VOTE: Luca.

IDEK

And you can't slate me for lurking when you're arguably the biggest lurker in this game.

Am I? Wow, that sucks. At least I bothered enough to play the game instead of just walking the plank towards a day 1 lynch and suddenly realizing it was a bad idea.

And here you blame Luca for his lynch while saying now that you weren't happy about it.

[penguin_alien]

Heh, I let BRO be the snippy one when we hydra. Have you read any non-Street Racer games of mine to get this characterization of me? Because if you think I'm snippy here, I can point you to a couple of games where I've actually let loose. This? Is mild annoyance at being told what I can and can't comment on.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah there was this other game with a bunch of video games where you were scum, in a different hydra, and you were snippy there.

Mini 1551 (Phoenix Down)
Micro 302

Enjoy!

[penguin_alien]

Alright PA, lets talk. I know Ive sort of engaged Damon on this point, but why is mastin town for going off the leading wagons but you don't think Snow is? There were like 4-5 people starting 3rd wagons or sitting off the main ones in the first place, so why is mastin town for doing something anti-town and everyone else is meh?

Attitude toward the leading wagons. Mastin took the attitude of not wanting to lynch Luca/talah on principle; I don't see that from SnowStorm. More like he was hoping to avoid the wagons altogether.

I'm not writing mastin off as obvtown or anything, but I'm getting the right blend of emotion and grandstanding without trying to work people like a puppeteer to make me think she's town.

[penguin_alien]

Someone tell me if Penguin, Deas, and 4n make sense as scum. Those names were NOT chosen randomly

What are you looking to get out of this?

TheWayItEnds, any opinions on people besides RachMarie, who's a) generally an easy target, and b) likely town here? Would also love to hear what you like about the arguments for my being scum. Cheerleading my detractors is a pretty safe position given your own lack of voting me.

Snow, what's up with the way you talk to PA and your attacks on AP, I thought you had those slots as town yesterday?
And what happened to your Damonread?

I did have those slots as town, MR/AP especially were one of my strongest town reads on day 1. It was kind of upsetting when AP got in between our interaction because I was trying to read you, whom I've had trouble getting a solid read on since the beginning of the game. I also didn't like the way she did it and the points she raised, which doesn't help me in maintaining that town read. As for PA, his attack on me was really bad and unexpected, I mean, it's not something I would expect from a player like PA as town.

Call it OMGUS, call it whatever you like, but the truth is it is much easier to tell when people are making up bullshit on me than when they do it on others.

As for my Damon scum read, it's not as strong as it was so I'd rather focus my time on other players, like the ones I've been interacting with.

All edginess aside, I really don't get the sense that you're clear on who's who between me and AP. Which, yeah, AP vs. PA is maybe-kinda weird when we're both scum reading you, but you accused me (PA, female) of interfering with your 4nxi3ty reading process (which I still maintain is part of the large game process--what you post is fair game for everyone to comment on, and I wasn't feeding 4nxi3ty answers) and I suspect that your burden of proficiency argument was intended to be used against AP (male).

My continued problem with SnowStorm is that I could vaguely see that if he thought he was being attacked with no arguments, yeah, that's annoying as any alignment. But the tenor of his responses when confronted with actual reasons is denial. Like only cases that he approves of have merit. Which I suspect would number zero.

Alright PA, lets talk. I know Ive sort of engaged Damon on this point, but why is mastin town for going off the leading wagons but you don't think Snow is? There were like 4-5 people starting 3rd wagons or sitting off the main ones in the first place, so why is mastin town for doing something anti-town and everyone else is meh?

Attitude toward the leading wagons. Mastin took the attitude of not wanting to lynch Luca/talah on principle; I don't see that from SnowStorm.

More like he was hoping to avoid the wagons altogether.

How could you get that from my posts when I strongly pushed for talah's lynch at a point? What do you think about ThAd then, who did avoid the wagons until the end of the day?

The point here is that you *did* scum read a leading wagon, and I'd argue that that scum read was active when the clock was ticking down. Overall supporting wagons on townies and trying to hop off at the end is scummy, while not liking wagons on townies but being willing to commit to a least-bad wagon of the feasible options is good town play. Avoiding the wagons altogether like mastin2 did falls somewhere in the middle for me. Given what I know of mastin's play, it wouldn't be a shocking move for her as town. And I'd actually expect her to want to influence town more than she's doing here if she's scum.

projectmatt, why do you have townleans on Damon_Gant and SnowStorm? The latter's of interest in light of him being my strongest scum read, and the former is of interest with mastin's crusade in that direction, so sorting Damon would be of double help.

[penguin_alien]

You're scum because you're not posting like town and your mindset is basically highly scum-oriented.

This is batshit enough to be town for now.

This is exactly what mastin did last time I ran into scum-her, called people scum because they were scum, or scum because they weren't town.

[penguin_alien]

Micro 264, Resistance Mafia.

[penguin_alien]

I was more on guard there because mastin had just rolled me in Anything Goes, and she started doing her usual 'scum read PA' thing in the Micro game, except her reasons were flimsier than usual--she said I was scum because I was scum, pretty much a direct quote. When pressed, she kept repeating that it was obvious but wouldn't explain. It's part of what I've observed from scum-mastin, a tendency to try to dictate opinion without backing it up at all. I don't see that tendency to roll over the group yet, but the assertions without any discernable logic makes me wary.

I agree that TWIE is fishy, but I'm probably biased by the whole 'scum reading my slot without giving reasons' thing...oh, wait...

[penguin_alien]

What are yo to get out of this?

you worried?

LOLnope. Just an odd entry.

PA, gun to your head-read on Mastin.

Gun to my head, scum. Rereading her ISO, I think the lack of bossing town around is a byproduct of low activity rather than an absence of intent. And the stances she takes are really unsubstantiated across the board.

[penguin_alien]

Yo Penguin, your entry was a little less bad, but your lack of Yates followup/followthrough bothers me.

Let's see follow-up on 1662.

Um, my entry was bad. It's passed now, but I got sick right after replacing in and it slowed down my catch-up process, which left me without enough time to make any useful efforts at derailing the bad D1 wagons.

Yates went V/LA, making him less interesting. And I kind of want to see what he does for the first half of this day before making up my mind. To steal a recent turn of phrase from Nero Cain, gun to my head read on Yates is town.

TheWayItEnds has been pretty weird here, and given that sorting him would help with Yates, what with Yates' interest in pisskop, I want him to address his cheerleading stances so far today.

[penguin_alien]

TheWayItEnds, any opinions on people besides RachMarie, who's a) generally an easy target, and b) likely town here? Would also love to hear what you like about the arguments for my being scum. Cheerleading my detractors is a pretty safe position given your own lack of voting me.

You know what? I do. I got unexpectedly busy yesterday and never got around to it. Gonna read the last couple of pages and post some just for you.

Yay, presents for me! Looking forward to it.

I mean really. If I said PA is scum for some arbitrarily shitty reason like shes posting too much, would that make her town?

Given that it's me and I never post too much, I'd want some of what you were smoking...

As far as mastin goes, I'm not overly worried about her engaging with my suspicion. I expect some indignant rebuttal whenever she posts again, possibly with a side order of, 'but I don't repeat strategies!' WIFOM. But the posts she made really feel like her scum game. Which slots in well with her tone in Open 541, where I was scum with her for a day or two, and even some of Charmed that I followed as back-up mod. As far as her jumping on SnowStorm, if she wants to bus, who am I to interfere?

You say mastin isn't scum if I am, which is a pretty accurate assessment of what would follow if I was scum, given that I'm not bus-happy, especially when it comes to more potentially influential teammates. But thought exercise: say I am town. Your knee-jerk read on mastin, please.

[penguin_alien]

Upon review, I'm town reading Yates, which makes me inclined not to dismiss the TWIE-pisskop read entirely, especially since I'm still not clear on what he was trying to do with his expressed doubts on me. Yates, I know you're on V/LA, but when you're able can you give me a rundown more specifically on why you think TWIE is the best lynch for today?

Still more interested in lynching SnowStorm, but it also wouldn't take much for me to switch to mastin. I know she's been gone for the weekend as normal, but the more I reread her ISO, the less I like it, especially since I happen to like Damon_Gant's recent posts.

[penguin_alien]

I'm town reading Yates, which makes me inclined not to dismiss the TWIE-pisskop read entirely

Even if Yates is town that doesn't mean his read is right so what do YOU think of TWIE?

I don't trust him, but I don't want him lynched today. I'm still not persuaded to move off SnowStorm, but my next choice would be mastin, and I'm having a hard time seeing myself not voting one of those two for today.

LOLnope. Just an odd entry.

Why?

Why I'm not worried? Because I haven't seen you actually provide a case on any of your three scum reads. Which actually answers why I think your entry's odd too. That works out nicely.

A few reasons I can think of:

a) To encourage another wagon and split up town votes more - causing confusion and small potential for no lynch.

Since when is it better for scum to not lynch than to lynch town?...

Even mislynching town gives town information that scum isn't entirely choosing to provide, even if they support the wagon. Their night kill is far more under their control and leaves town with less information to analyze. Also, town loses half a lynch entirely, as two no-lynches is like giving scum a free lynch with their two gained night kills with no town rebuttal. Someone else can probably explain it better.

Nero, you're going to have to keep scum reading me, because I'm actually town reading you here. I mean, it's your choice as to whether you want to think that I've learned something or am bullshitting you, but given the reliability of me only town reading you as scum, I'm hard-pressed to argue the point.

Mod, V/LA through 4/9, possibly more LA than V. Thanks!

[penguin_alien]

I'll try to give you a better answer later, either during V/LA if I have the energy or post-V/LA, but real quick, it's mostly the tone of the cases you're making. Your honing in on potentially unpopular cases, the willingness to be pulled into kind of spiraling arguments. I'm not super-coherent any more, but yeah.

[penguin_alien]

As for PA her taunting me to "be more convincing" doesn't seem all that town to me and I'm a tad bit worried that she doesn't have a scum read on me when she always does as town.

Curious, what games have you been in with her?

FEA Large Theme, NY 164, Open 505, WWE Large Theme, 2.5 Friends Large Theme, Mainstream Large Theme, all as solo-me. I think we overlapped in Empking's Large Theme LOTR, NY 161 maybe? Might be others I don't recall.

Nero, you're going to have to keep scum reading me, because I'm actually town reading you here.

Uhhhhhh. Are you being cheeky scum, PA?

Uhhhhhh. Flippant town, but YMMV between flippant and cheeky. And people wonder why I don't say what I think more often. Seriously though, you'll have to assess whether you think I'm being amused at a situation that keeps recurring in games with Nero Cain or I'm going for a 'devil may care' attitude to hide my inherent scum sympathies.

This is exactly what mastin did last time I ran into scum-her, called people scum because they were scum, or scum because they weren't town.

And I insisted back then that it wasn't a scumtell, didn't I? Like I said, it's actually something that I copied from my town meta. Like this game. The NORM is for me-as-scum to have ease explaining the read, and as town to have trouble with it. The EXCEPTION is for me-as-town to have ease explaining the read and as scum have trouble with it.

...but you were scum. Does not compute.

This is the first thing about PA that has me concerned, since she knows that while I'm not going to never-bus, I have a strong distaste for it; casually hopping onto a scumbuddy isn't exactly my thing.

Again, appealing to self-aware meta. So not comfortable with this posting.

Why is it that for two days in a row, I've thought both lead wagons sucked?

I'd take this more seriously if you weren't on said lead wagon at the time you pulled the quote.

There's other stuff here I'll think about when thinking's easier. Still not seeing any particular reason not to lynch SnowStorm. Would lynch mastin I think. Not sure about TWIE. AP, I assume you'll be commenting, but I want to know where you stand on mastin now, given that you were kind of willing to lynch her before her catch-up posts.

[penguin_alien]

Eh, PA isn't exactly a townread for me. Her recent posting has felt pretty uninspired.

Gee, almost like I was on V/LA for a reason. If you don't mean my most recent posting by recent posting, do elaborate. Otherwise, the last three days weren't very conducive to game posting for reasons.

Current thoughts on players:

Town reads, will be annoyed if any are lynched today: Snork, Egg, Nero Cain, SiX, PeregrineV, Damon_Gant, 4nxi3ty

Town leans, not endorsing lynching them: Yates, RachMarie, ThAdmiral

Not reading as town (and kind of bummed about that): AngryPidgeon, DeasVail

Scum leans, wouldn't mind seeing them lynched: projectmatt, TheWayItEnds

Scum reads, would happily lynch: SnowStorm, mastin2

Unvote, Vote Penguin

Can we really make this happen?

I'll post for real tomorrow if I can.

You'll have a better shot at it if you bother to make a case. (P-edit: what Nero Cain said, since he's feeling more sociable than I am)

If mastin's scum, I'd be very leery of AP. Looking at the bottom four names, I'd almost rather lynch mastin or projectmatt here, maybe projectmatt. His town reads felt perfunctory, and he didn't engage with my attempt at discussion about SnowStorm.

VOTE: projectmatt

[penguin_alien]

Egg, why don't you have any problem voting a wagon that currently consists of two of your initial scum reads?

[penguin_alien]

Two 2-shot JOATs is reasonable, as is aptil's having claimed only one of the shots. If several more games phases don't resolve things it can be revisited then. For now, personality clashes and annoyances aside, I'm more interested in hearing if anyone objects to a projectmatt lynch. Anyone have a town read on him who'd like to argue the point?

[penguin_alien]

I'd lynch mastin. Which, I guess doesn't mean much to people who now think that she's my buddy...? OK then.

I kind of liked DV's points on projectmatt, and I think we have more info if mastin flips scum.

Yates, how good do you feel about TWIE relative to the start of the day?

UNVOTE:

P-edit: projectmatt, what if your purpose wasn't self-preservation? Who would you vote?

[penguin_alien]

I'll vote mastin once we get a VC to make sure I don't derphammer.

[penguin_alien]

VOTE: mastin2

L-1

[penguin_alien]

Skimmed quickly, but catching up for real now. Will say that Yates has found a secure place in my town reads now though. Was it worth the wait, Yates?

[penguin_alien]

Everyone on the TheWayItEnds wagon gets some scum points because it was the clear counter wagon especially once the Mastin wagon really took off.

From my scum reads yesterday:
-4n is dead and flipped town. I was wrong.
-projectmatt and penguin might still be scum
-I still like Deas scum

AP, why didn't you think Mastin was scum again?

Oh and if it wasn't clear, TheWayItEnds is now my strongest town read.

Vote Deas

Preview edit: yeah if that kill doesn't get claimed, my first instinct is to like Six less.

So you think I might be scum because...really drawing a blank here. You're probably town, so do try to think more rigorously.

Hey, AP, do you actually think there's a snowball's chance in hell I'm scum following the mastin-scum flip? If so, really can't wait to hear the logic on that one.

I'm not convinced SK-aptil would have spontaneously claimed the second kill N1 on the basis of a tiny wagon.

I do think that someone confused about how Friendly Neighbor works killed Nero Cain, and I remember someone being confused on that point today; will find it in this stream of consciousness reread of the day so far.

AP, why did you investigate talah? With a one-shot cop, if talah had lived to D2, would you have outed to clear him with the VT claim? Because that seems super-low utility when you still had a tracker shot in the bag.

This...is not how gunsmith works in normals as far as I know. I hate to give up my pretty Snork town read, but really. Go wiki a role before you fake claim it.

Right, that was SiX being weird about the implications of the FN from RachMarie. Hm. Would love for my scum read on aptil to have been right...confirmation bias is a thing.

Yates...I agree on the mastin scumslip thing with a 4p Mafia, and in a 20p game that likely implies a four-man Mafia with an SK. I tend to think actually that of the four there I was way off on my Snork read and he's Mafia, maybe Mafia Tracker, with an incriminating result on AP that he wants to claim as something else. I guess TWIE could have been a town counterwagon; I need to look at the wagons from yesterday when I have an actual block of time. But...wait, have you played with scum-me? I don't think you have, so I'll excuse you harboring the slightest thought that my approach to mastin yesterday came from my being a buddy of hers. Proceed with the microscopic examination!

But, uh, Yates, take a look at the non-bolded part of the wiki. Snork's claim is looking pretty bad. And yeah, mods might not use the wiki initially, but these games go through a three-member review board to make sure they conform...

I'll read Snork's VC stuff later, out of time now.

[penguin_alien]

Was it worth the wait, Yates?

Lol - finally!

Too bad you have found yourself under my microscope after the mastin flip.

Might as well help you get a jump on this. My thinking mastin was scum for actual reasons/experiential stuff as opposed to everyone who got pissy with her for posting in MD/elsewhere makes my suspicions scummier? Frankly, I had taken a stance, uncertain though it might have been.

This reminds me, didn't someone say they'd have an answer on my alignment today anyways? Maybe I hallucinated that, but I'll check right quick. It was either PV or DV, damn their nearly identical abbreviations.

[penguin_alien]

Opening ThAd wall is A plus wall material. I wasn't liking ThAd day 1 near deadline but this wall is everything I wished it could be and more. ThAd looks waaaaay townier than I thought he was yesterday, considering that he was in my shortlist of lynch candidates at the start of the day. I don't know how I feel about the hard tunnel on RM (I realize how stupid this sounds coming from me, but w/e I'll get to that later). But so far I think he stays off my lynch today pile.

LOOK HOW FLUID THIS IS!

Why the fuck is this even on the table for lynching...

Calling ThAd town doesn't make TWIE town. Saying you like ThAd's posts "because they come from town" doesn't make people town.

I'm holding out on the PA lynch. It will become evident tomorrow.

Right. Go for it.

(triple post FTW...sorry y'all.)

[penguin_alien]

LMFAO penguin that is so rich. Are you willing to trade?

Trade...what now?

And reading VC stuff retracted, nothing to read.

[penguin_alien]

1v1? Quite possibly. Let's just say that Street Racers: Las Vegas has made me leery of bad gunsmith claims.

P-edit: reading...

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, Yates, when I thought about it, I realized we have no games where I'm scum, oddly enough.

Bottom line, I agree that Snork doesn't sacrifice himself to get town-AP lynched, but the gunsmith claim is shady as hell. And yes, this game would have been reviewed for normalcy at the least, and the gunsmith description Snork is using is actually a cop, not a gunsmith.

And yes, a gunsmith should detect a spent vig, as the gun is there even if the bullets aren't.

P-edit: claim was retracted yeah, after he'd dodged the lynch for umpteen days. Your point?

[penguin_alien]

Snork, AP is the lynch for today, obv. If he flips Mafia, I'll buy that you either don't understand your role or the mod's derping liek woah.

You're welcome to check me tonight if you're a town gunsmith, and your result will tell me if I have to follow through with the 1v1 throwdown.

I'd like to give Yates a chance to put me under the microscope and to hear from PV as per my earlier post, plus anyone else who hasn't had their feet in the fire yet.

Yates, I assume you think ThAd is scum?

[penguin_alien]

What are you even trying to say pa? It's my role isnt it? It's in my inbox. I can read. I know exactly what it says and what it means. Maybe YOU dont understand it but it makes no difference to me.

:rolls eyes: The way you're presenting your gunsmith is not a normal variant of the role. So either the mod and his review board went offtrack, you're misinterpreting it, or you're lying. I rule none of those out, but I do support an AP lynch, duh.

And I will check whoever I want tyvm.

:rolls eyes harder: Yes, yes, check whomever you want. My point was that I don't fear your investigation and will happily 1v1 you should you ever claim a guilty on me.

You know I'm actually a bit disappointed. I wanted you to be town. Who's gonna be my friend now, Aypee?

Mr. Rogers?

Or the new Mr. Rogers... :watches that go over like a lead balloon:

Yates, yeah, no superspy points for you. But I'd rather talk about ThAd while we have time. I'll read stuff over tonight and reassess.

[penguin_alien]

But, you could always make yourself obvtown instead.

You don't think I'm obvtown already? I'm hurt, really.

Remaining players who aren't of known alignment:

Snork--likely town, enough weirdness that I'll have doubts but we'll see what shakes out
Yates--town read
Damon_Gant--town read
Egg--town read, don't remember why, but town

Likely two Mafia scum and one SK scum in:
TheWayItEnds--unlikely scum, but not getting a clear town vibe
projectmatt--possibly scum, although not with AP?
PeregrineV--I lean not-scum, but I'd like to see more from him. Plus I like to

drag him to LyLo

sort him late game.
SnowStorm--still kind of like him for scum
ThAdmiral, DeasVail--not likely both scum, as that would mean AP put them both on his list as afterthoughts.

SiX--very suspect at this point, especially after AP claimed JOAT too when he was put under suspicion initially

So I suspect SiX is an SK who is suffering from some whiplash in between aptil's plans and his. Mafia-wise, if we do have a four-man team, I think it's {SnowStorm, ThAd/DV} but I don't have good reasons for the last slot.

Promised delving into ThAd:

Hm, not seeing ThAd-SnowStorm as a team here actually. ThAd begs off the mastin wagon because it's meta-based, which, um. Meta for me, yeah, but a hell of a lot of people just didn't like that she wasn't posting here. Which isn't meta.

I'm also not sure about his interactions with Nero Cain. I favor the NC kill being from the presumed SK-SiX, but we'll know more about that once AP flips and we figure out how much stock to put in his last-ditch message to his team. In which case the disconnect between ThAd fighting with NC all day and then NKing him is non-existent.

Most of yesterday stemmed from the RachMarie FN to NC business, which I'm not sure how much to read into that.

Bottom line, ThAd is a pile of 'not sure' from me, and I don't have a reason to town read him, but I don't recall a persuasive case.

[penguin_alien]

Did you miss the part where I'm not 100% sold on you being what you claim? And if he's a Mafia Doctor, for example, he could be scum without a gun. Although under your odd version of a gunsmith, that might be out the window.

Well, doesn't matter for now. AP's today's lynch, and SiX is likely the next day's lynch, and whoever's alive can see from there.

What's your current take on ThAd? Specifically, why did he go from weak town in 2689 to presumed scum in 2807?

[penguin_alien]

I'm not sure Yates would set the stage for lynching yet another buddy in calling out ThAd. Have been on the go today, more thoughts tonight.

First order of business is to see if RM crumbed a JK target, since an SK or last of a four-man Mafia team would presumably have been foiled by a roleblock.

[penguin_alien]

Sure, but if it was a four-man Mafia team, how much sense does it make for him to push his last buddy like that? Admittedly he was in good position, but I don't think he was in such good position that he could count on getting to 3p LyLo and winning. Especially assuming there's an SK in play, someone generally being town read like Yates would have been at risk of eating the SK NK.

Also worth considering is that we've had three goons flip. A four man team against an SK and a town JOAT and a gunsmith so far with no more than one PR seems weak. Outside chance a Mafia doc who'd be immune to the gunsmith and be able to protect his team from the SK would be enough.

Is it possible we have five Mafia and there's a non-SK explanation for the double kill N2? I'm spitballing here, but something seems wonky.

[penguin_alien]

Nothing in RM's ISO to indicate any JK crumb, not surprising I guess given that she said she was saving it for likely one scum, which wasn't at all likely to be last night pre-modkill.

[penguin_alien]

So the thing is, Yates was the one who suggested mastin slipped WRT the four-man Mafia team in 2684. We can wander down the WIFOM path all we'd like about how sincere it was, but bottom line is I think we need to consider the information tainted and consider the options. Since no one's taken responsibility for the second kill N2, we have to assume it was from some flavor of scum. I have played in games with scum vigs before, but it seems supremely unlikely such would hold a shot until N2 if given a choice in the matter. Easy answer is still SK.

The idea of a Mafia doc as scum's only power is that it puts a lot of eggs in one basket assuming a 4-man scum team.

Speaking of eggs, Egg, talk to me about ThAd. I skimmed your ISO with my trusty Ctrl + F, and every mention of ThAd from you doesn't come with reasons why you think he's scum, just that you're willing to lynch him to various degrees.

[penguin_alien]

On tablet, being lazy for holiday, but short answers to DV's questions are that I thought the way Yates came in after the scum lynch was a towny attitude and so was enough to push him over in my mind, gunsmith normally gets gun results on cops and other such gun-toting types, and as for AP having claimed Mafia I don't trust what claimed scum says even if it seems straightforward.

[penguin_alien]

And those numbers line up with you being the SK and PA being the last maf so whats the problem.

Seriously why isnt this dead yet?

The numbers line up with me being Mafia? Heh, good one.

Will take a look at the case PV for scum; for me it's between SnowStorm and PV from what I remember, but I haven't looked at things recently.

P-edit: AP is dead, I am not...

[penguin_alien]

I'll read the triple ISO soonish and see what shakes out. But yeah, as far as I can tell the case is that we've decided ThAd is an unlikely partner and nothing explicitly eliminates you as a possibility.

[penguin_alien]

Actually getting around to reading the triple-Mafia ISO of doom today.

For people who think I'm scum, please do check out my comments on mastin, especially relative to the reasoning of most people who ended up on the wagon, and tell me with a straight face that you think I'm scum. Especially if you know me and my anti-bussing tendencies. The idea that I'd crack open my own Mafia team is pretty far out for me. Which, heh, hey, PV, we've played together enough that you're welcome to weigh in on that one. Not sure anyone else left alive would know me well enough with the possible exception of DV?

More whenever I slog through the 442 scum posts...

[penguin_alien]

Hey, so game-wise we have an unaccounted for kill. SiX's predecessor claimed the talah NK as a one-shot vig, so that one is at least claimed. Night two is unclear; both kills were on targets I thought were pretty towny. I'd suggest reading SiX's posts to form your own impression of what happened based on follow-up to the claim.

Re: your ISOing, bottom line is I think ThAd was being set up. Especially if it's four mafia, one SK, because for Yates to be pushing him that hard when buddy two of four was nailed to the wall by an investigative result seems unlikely given how much town cred Yates had. Could be five Mafia full stop with something weird to account for the extra kill. There are set-up spec points in favor of both.

You mentioned Zdenek in your breakdown; he died and flipped town N1.

I'd be interested in your take on Snork.

My own triple-ISO based thoughts will be incoming in a couple hours.

[penguin_alien]

:rolls eyes: I wanted fferyllt's unbiased take on your slot, but OK. Also, I'm female; please use the right pronouns.

With a guilty result on AP, he was the lynch. It mattered not a whit if I voted him or not. As far as mastin, look at what I and others actually said during the day. And hey, with fferyllt here, that's one more person who can testify to my complete inability to bus.

Tell you what, do you or do you not think there's an SK? Let's start there.

There's an unaccounted for kill N2. We either have an unclaimed vig shot, which is dumb as hell, a mafia with a vig shot, or an SK. Could be you, could be someone else.

[penguin_alien]

For fuck's sake. WE HAVE AN UNCLAIMED KILL FROM NIGHT TWO. This points to more than just a mafia in play. What the everloving fuck do you want?

Off to do the promised reading.

[penguin_alien]

But have you even considered a

Strongman or anything like that

in the Mafia team?
No you haven't, you're so stubborn that it bugs me.

A strongman penetrates interference with the NK. It doesn't give its faction an extra kill.

I also tend to think you're overestimating any belief RM had that you were town, but we don't know because there wasn't time for her to indicate if she'd use her JK and on whom. Not to mention that the mid-night kill might have changed things for her.

What is interesting is that you were the first to claim 2-powered JOAT. The odds of claiming a two-powered JOAT, which is relatively uncommon in comparison to a three-four powered JOAT is low.

OK, ideally here we lynch Mafia and you eat the NK via bodyguarding properly anyways. Back to Mafia analysis.

[penguin_alien]

OK, reading through this triple ISO with a few baseline assumptions. I'm going with the straightforward answer that Snork didn't spontaneously throw AP under the bus with a fakeclaim, in large part because I am assuming there's an SK in play, which with the relatively low level of town power displayed thus far likely means a four man Mafia (and if SiX doesn't like this assumption I kindly invite him to tell me why a second kill went unclaimed Night Two). If the second kill was from town it should have been claimed. If it was from Mafia, that means they got a vig shot as in FEA Large Theme, and that would be a very unusual choice for a Normal game. Plus no SK would mean a five-man Mafia, which in turn means a five-man Mafia with an extra vig shot...eh, unlikely.

The only other thing I can think of is that we have a werewolf and Mafia faction in play and the kills are indistinguishable in flavor, which would likely be a 3:3 breakdown. That leaves us with the scum overlapping on Zdenek N1...possible but less likely. That would also make the choice of including a gunsmith pretty bizarre, and unless we had a counterbalancing Seer rather unfair. And with three Mafia dead, if someone had info that we have a Werewolf faction in play that should have been revealed so that we'd know not to rely on further gunsmith results and that we should be hunting for a completely independent faction at this point.

Also assuming that DV and TWIE are clear as per Snork's results. Assuming that Egg is clear because BipolarChemist was town as hell in his reaction to the fake dayvig. In terms of what I can expect to get out of the Mafia ISO, I'm also assuming SiX wasn't aligned with AP.

That leaves: fferyllt/projectmatt, PV, SnowStorm, Damon_Gant, ThAd, and DV. My own biases are that Damon_Gant and ThAd are extremely unlikely to be Mafia, fair warning.

In other news I like being out of rvs within 3 live posts. While its sort of forced (what super early day 1 case stuff isn't) I still like rogers better for it.

I'm scum.

Lemme guess: "reaction testing"?

vote: bjc

There you go, now you can call me scum for "taking the bait".

ThAdmiral, you are a

boss

. (Of course he is, being an admiral means being a boss of a lot of captains! But seriously, ThAd's town.)

I'm scum.

There is no legitimate purpose to this as Town. bjc is either scum or not worth listening to. Obtuse gambits are anti-Town.

Sticking with talah for now, but this deserves a vote later.

This is probably scum, too, though not certainly so.

I'm scum.

What a peculiar post. No meaning, no purpose, no humour. Everything else in this game thus far is smoke clouding my vision.

Vote: bjc

This, however, is definitely scum. You want a town voting bjc? (Or, at the least, more likely to be town.) Look at PV's. That, genuine-or-at-least-appearing-so. This, not so much.

Hi, hello.

Vote: Damon Grant.

You're going to have to excuse me for being stupid here. The only point I see zdenek making about me is "#4", which you'll forgive me if I don't find it to be spectacular analysis. Obviously I'm missing something here so can someone explain it to me? I'll pre-emptively point out that I barely read the post I was supposed to be sheeping. Honestly,

there's only so much one can say about a post that says "I'm scum", so it's unsurprising we have similar things to say about it.

And yes, I guess I did overjustify my absence which is turning out not to be so much so anyway thanks to this nifty iPad keyboard I got today. I appreciate the birthday wishes, even if they are laced with poison!

Why say anything about it even? It looks like you just picked up the easiest thing to comment and base a vote on and didn't even bother to read the posts after it. It looked like posting just for the sake of posting, as if you just wanted to blend in.

The defensive tone of this post also bothers me.

Also town.

I'm assuming that mastin was likely proceeding according to her gameplan in early game when she wasn't yet checked out, making her early posts useful. The above is trimmed for relevant reads. ThAd town read (suspect mastin wouldn't have considered ThAd an easy lynch); TWIE-slot mild scum read, likely hedging her bets; Damon_Gant: classic mastin saying someone is scum with no real substance behind the read. Just proclaiming it and moving on. It sounds good, with the comparison to another player's vote and all, but there's nothing there. SnowStorm town read is perfunctory and apparently based on SnowStorm concurring with mastin's 'scum read' on Damon_Gant. Something she'd want to support but not elaborate on.

Next post 107 has a whole argument for talah-scum yet...Damon_Gant's the vote? mastin might bus, but she wouldn't bus in favor of a supposed slam-dunk scum read.

Yates starts out pushing PV very hard.

Argh, posting this here because my computer's power cord is being incredibly unreliable. Plus this might go on a bit.

[penguin_alien]

Excellent. fferyllt, if you have shots left and any doubt's about my alignment by the end of the day phase, I invite you to shoot me tonight.

Here's RM's reaction/CC

[penguin_alien]

Snork, no, I think we can narrow this game down, and a vig will speed things up. It comes down to PV, SnowStorm, and ThAd for me. I doubt my opinions on record will change much, and this isn't a case where I think much useful info can be gleaned from any wagon on me.

[penguin_alien]

Continuing the ISO read adjusting for two Mafia left and projectmatt as town, ThAd as possible scum.

Also, given the small pool of legit possibilities, SiX, this is the night to ensure Snork survives. If fferyllt takes care of me and Snork gets a result on one of the people not lynched today, we should be sitting pretty.

[penguin_alien]

I think I trust fferyllt to read me reasonably well, and if she doesn't believe I'm town by the end of the day, I'd rather not cloud the matter.

In terms of your results, yes, we could have a Mafia doctor. But I think that means at worst we have one scum in your eventual potential innocent pile. I do think it's incredibly unlikely to be TWIE, as a Mafia doc would be thrilled to be investigated and cleared, and I don't think he could have faked that. Plus my personal take is that mastin's list was indeed all non-Mafia, which would be in line with her gut tendency not to bus and hope that town would exhaust themselves running through it.

If we lynch another Mafia non-doctor, it's worth reexamining DV. Part of that depends on what the next Mafia flips. I agree that scum should have protection in this set-up. What does throw me is that a Mafia doc puts their investigation immunity and protection all in one role.

Another option is a Mafia roleblocker and a non-killing traitor, given that town is low-powered. Worth considering at least.

[penguin_alien]

Damon_Gant is likely town for how mastin pushed him. Egg is likely town for BipolarChemist's reaction to the dayvig.

If fferyllt doesn't want to shoot me, a pool of {PV, ThAd, SnowStorm} is my preference.

I also tend to think that since SiX can guarantee Snork lives, there's no reason for Snork not to claim his investigation target outright to keep from having that person shot by fferyllt if nothing else.

[penguin_alien]

The set-up says we have maximum one each of mafia and werewolf. I suspect Yates was bussing because mastin had checked out.

[penguin_alien]

ThAd investigation works. That gives ffery a vig pool of {me, SnowStorm, PV, her read} pending the lynch.

[penguin_alien]

Also I'll post my longer wall continuation when my computer stops hating me, but Yates pushed PV and ThAd both pretty hard at various times. I'd be surprised if both were scum.

[penguin_alien]

Last one on the 'remaining' list.

[penguin_alien]

That's fine too, but I think if you openly decide to shoot within a group of selected people, we're forcing scum to protect themselves, rather than offensively using any power roles they may have.

Nah, leave it ambiguous. Most opinions are on record, and we've eliminated the SK issue. Better ffery decides pending the lynch flip what's most useful.

[penguin_alien]

ffery, I'm assuming you're responsible for the N2 kill in the absence of a counterclaim, and claiming it falsely makes no sense anyways. Technically nothing here is inconsistent with a second three-man scum team either, but that would involve a SiX-projectmatt/ffery team where SiX claimed 2-powered JOAT in advance of Rach's claim (explicable if there's a rolecop function) but really kind of a reach. You were getting town read for your entrance in advance of the claim; from what I've seen of your scum game (Mini 1526, 1531 off the top of my head) you don't tend to make giant crazy plays. If we get unexplained kills going forward, i.e. multiple strong town reads dying in a single night, yeah, living players should revisit this. But multiple vigs fits with the way gunsmith appears to work here.

Bottom line, I believe your claim because it makes things make sense. For you to be an SK your kills would have to have been missed or overlapped on N1 and N3 and even as disconnected as projectmatt was, I find that less likely. Also don't think he'd have been as apologetic about replacing out if he was a third party. Apologizing implies a sense of responsibility to a faction at least.

SnowStorm-wise, I just really didn't like the abortive attempt to wagon ThAd from him and Snork. Of the two, I thought SnowStorm was more likely the scum. And I realize that this is hypocritical to a degree since I tried to wagon aptil upon catching up, but all I can say is that I really hated both wagons and was under the impression from the VC I most recently remembered that momentum was growing for an aptil wagon.

In terms of my SnowStorm read, I also admit looking back on it I did what I tend to do on scum reads and explain more fully after voting. Not sure if being engaged on my read/vote helps me express my thoughts more clearly or if I'm just inherently lazy, but I'd ask if you understand my point on SnowStorm more fully from reading the parts of my ISO after I vote him?

When I voted projectmatt, I kind of wanted to see how others reacted to it. In terms of overall coherency, I was coming off V/LA, and I'll admit I was dragging a bit. Not to mention that as of this VC:

It's day 2. Deadline for the day is 13th April, 15:45. That's (expired on 2014-04-13 15:45:32).

Vote Count 2.11

TheWayItEnds [4 votes] (DeasVail, mastin2, PeregrineV, Damon_Gant)
ThAdmiral [3 votes] (SnowStorm, RachMarie, Nero Cain)
projectmatt [2 votes] (4nxi3ty, penguin_alien)
penguin_alien [2 votes] (Snork, Egg)
AngryPidgeon [2 votes] (TheWayItEnds, SiX)
Nero Cain [1 vote] (ThAdmiral)
SnowStorm [1 vote] (Angry Pidgeon)
mastin2 [1 vote] (Yates)

1 player is not voting

: {projectmatt}

With

17

players alive it takes

9

votes to lynch somebody or to go to night.

Activity

Yates is V/LA.

it was literally the only potential wagon on someone I wasn't town reading that didn't have scum reads on it aside from mastin2, and I was being thrown a bit by AP's defense of mastin.

In terms of SnowStorm and him possibly being bussed, at the time he was being pushed there was an intact scum team with a core of town-read Yates and usually hard to lynch mastin and AP, especially given the overall player list. I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone else was being bussed, and IIRC mastin's push on SnowStorm was a less stable push than her push on Damon_Gant.

I kind of agree with you about Yates not bussing PV so quickly out the gate. I also quite frankly don't get scum-PV vibes, and I've seen him as scum a fair amount and as scum in the later stages of the game. He tends to go all reasonable and neutral when his teammates disappear. That's not happening here.

[penguin_alien]

More tomorrow on the triple ISO of doom. Out of time, out of steam, but not convinced PV is the best lynch for today. So please no ending the day until ffery talks more and I and others get more thoughts on record...

[penguin_alien]

I recall town-reading Damon independently of issues with mastin pushing him, but I don't recall why at the moment. Will look into that...

[penguin_alien]

Will finish my read-through and figure out where I think scum is tonight.

[penguin_alien]

Screw it, started diving into this again, do not want. Who knows what strategies they rolled with in 'reading'/misreading people. Did they come down hard on BipolarChemist because they didn't want the mislynch going away or because they knew he was scum despite the textbook perfect reaction? And over 400 posts of that...blech.

Who's on my potentially having a gun that isn't shooting on the town's behalf list:

Egg
PV
SnowStorm
Damon_Gant
ThAd

Don't want Egg or Damon on the gallows. Would vote Snow, but PV thinks he's town. Yet I still don't like that he's the one left on ThAd. I feel like this is town PV.

Going with the PV town read for now. From which I get VOTE: ThAd

May reevaluate when not falling asleep on keyboard tomorrow.

[penguin_alien]

Are you at no clue status on SnowStorm for his own posts or interactions with the flipped scum? If that makes sense.

[penguin_alien]

^ Exactly. It's the difference between when mastin's scum, she declares unsubstantiated scum reads on town players and acts like no one should question them versus as town she's unable to back up those kinds of reads and expresses frustration with that lack of evidence to bring to the table.

[penguin_alien]

Which is to say that I still lean town on Damon_Gant.

[penguin_alien]

Remind me why SiX is in the shoot pool?

[penguin_alien]

Given that Snork keeps getting results scum likely don't have a way to interfere, which means they should have some way of not having the whole team nailed by a gunsmith via investigative immunity.

Other thoughts on what all this implies, but nothing that helps to speculate on openly.

[penguin_alien]

PA I hate to be a lazy ass but I need a break from ISOs. What are your current thoughts about Egg?

His entry was weird as hell. It took forever to get him to explain that his 'scum reads' were based on wagon position of the Day One lynch. I don't think he'd have come in like that as scum. The reaction testing, it's dicey for scum to get results they can use in that situation. I guess he could gamble on getting one usable result, but it's such a divergence from his teammates, and at !east AP and Yates were in decent position upon his entry.

He really spurred the mastin wagon. It was a time when the urgency was believable, but not so close to deadline as to be futile. And the mastin lynch triggered the AP one. I have a hard time seeing a replacement coming in and screwing over his team like that. Only reason that changes is if scum have daytalk, and even so I think it's a very unusual line to take.

With what happened on D3, he showed flexible thinking in considering my reaction to Snork. Scum would have tried to chain my mislynch off AP's.

His reactions and thought processes feel pro-town and genuine today.

That doesn't take his predecessor into account.

[penguin_alien]

There's no way we have a 16:4 setup here...? Not with three flipped goons and minimum four town PRs. So night four is pretty much a surety.

[penguin_alien]

Mafia doctor, maybe. A JK should have been blocking Snork, since they didn't shoot Snork anyways.

Thought to look into tomorrow: if we do have a four-man Mafia team with a doc, that doc is the only one immune to the gunsmith, and AP knew he was going down anyways. Which means the play D3 should have been to put that fourth man in optimal position. Yates was good to go via general read.

Town power revealed:
1 shot each vig/BG
x-shot vig
Gunsmith
1 shot each FN/JK

Mafia doc actually goes up against that fairly well. Non-investigative immune members can be made temp BP, investigative immune member can't be made BP.

Also interesting, if JK showed as having a gun, all the revealed town PRs would have tested positive to the gunsmith, also a counter to potentially low numbers.

Also hate to say it, but if we do have one Mafia standing who's investigative immune, that would explain why Snork hasn't been shot.

Sorry, easily distracted. I think it does dictate play going forward though, and I'd like ffery's more elaborated thoughts, because if we're down to one Mafia who's immune to investigation, that changes the scum hunting pool tomorrow.

[penguin_alien]

Heh, Nero really wanted me dead.

Thanks for the game, Plessiez!

I think an always-active mafia ascetic would have been fine though. Given they had to make it through, what, six mislynches with all kills going through, minus any vig shots on town, that's just a really long slog. Five if both the compulsive vig shots hit town.

This framework also seems nice for adding in a non-gunbearing SK.