NY 172: Another Large Normal (GAME OVER)

[fferyllt]

hi guys!

I'm going to start by reading some ISOs, but please feel free to point out stuff you think I should focus on right away.

[fferyllt]

Anyone want to catch me up on what the current thoughts are on balance and factions?

[fferyllt]

First runthrough is a triple ISO of AP, Mastin and Yates. I was especially looking for their reads lists to see what they said about each other and how that compared to their comments about other players, hoping to get some probable townies from it as well as a potential scumbuddy.

Long and not pretty. Read at your own risk.

Spoiler: a few things that jumped out of the ISOs

Im caught up.

I have moderate town reads on: Gant, Anxiety, Rogers, peregrine, DV and bjc.
I like mastin's presence in the game so far but need to talk to her more (tentative townread).

Talah, Chemist, and more recently Zdenek, look bad. Zdenek keeps toying with the Talah vote but hopped onto me for agreeing with PV about him which is pretty sketch. Voting me and simultaneously backpedaling on the inherent seriousness of his reads that I brought up makes me pretty willing to lynch that Today

Admiral is a weaker read, for no real reason other than he feels lackluster.

P-edit: I thought you called him obvtown? I need to read that sequence again, there was way to much towncred being thrown at him from too many people.
Do you believe them or not? You clearly at least partially believe those points since you are bothering to argue them with PV.
P-p-edit: Ok. Like The Doc holiday suspicion in particular bugged me. Saying he needs to vote someone later is scum motivated because? Hes panic-bussing bjc? He wants to see who is willing to ML bjc before hopping on? I mean, it -could- be from scum, but I dont see why town couldnt make that post.

Mastin was probably his townread-scum. Yates isn't mentioned. The comment on ThAd is the sort of thing I catch myself posting about a buddy as scum. :/ Dunno if AP would do something like that. He's a more assertive scum player than I am. Still, something to think about.

Checked Luca's meta - Luca pretty much doesn't have a meta, with as far as I could see, only 1 finished game to speak of. None of Luca's posts from that one game read as scummy as the one post Luca has here. I reiterate - I'm happy with my vote.

What on earth. How are you going to apply a metaread to somebody who has posted a grand total of 3 sentences, one of which was a proddodge?

I feel like he was talking to town here.

557 makes me think pisskop could be town.

AP, since you're here...

Blue below are additions I've made just now.

The only thing that really bugs me about Luca is the fact that my scum reads are advocating it as an acceptable lynch.

My top town reads right now are you

[Snow]

, MR, AP, Pisskop, Zd and mastin. Second tier would be Yates, DV, 4nx and pmatt.

Adding a third tier of null, maybe town, here: DG, Luca

Top scum reads are Talah, Thad, aptil,

DG,

Nero,

Rach.

Nulls are

nero (for now - his ISO is on my list), Luca,

and PV (who I was originally scum reading, but not sure if correct yet based on other posts).

Where would you disagree?

Actually, I'd like

MR,

penguin_alien

, mastin, PK, AP, and Zd to collab with me on these as well.

Ok, is there something you wanted to talk about specifically?

As far as reads go I'm somewhere around:

Town core: Penguin, Snork, PV
Probably town: Nero, Yates, DG, anxiety, snowstorm, Luca

I liked DV, but some of his recent opinions are less than sensible so Im bumping him into "not willing to lynch Today, someone should probably investigate this"-ville.
Zdenek I really don't know what to make of this game. I sort of like his reads, but not quite comfortable calling him town.

RM, matt, mastin are great targets for investigative PRs right now.

Scummy: Talah, Admiral, aptil, pisskop, Bipolar

Peregrine is this true? Are you town core?

And Mastin is now "investigate this" while Yates is probably town. If there's a teammate maybe in the scumpile? the comments on zdenek and DV have that "not calling my scumbuddy town or scum" feel that I have trouble avoiding. :/

- Talk to me about Pisskop. Why are you scumreading him?

My scumreads are Yates, DG, Anxiety. Ive got room for mild reads on AP, Luca, RM, and increasingly talah.

All of his main scumreads are on probable townies. His back up scumread on me has no development, Luca/RM are easy reads, and his "increasingly Talah" read sounds an awful lot like "Oh shit, Talah's getting lynched. Better get some towncred for it" and it doesnt really make sense with his other stated reads.

Another top detective, deducing that voting for a scumread is scummy.

This just feels fake and like scum caught for the wrong reasons.

Im pretty sure at one person everybody (else) considers town is a scummy scummy man.

This is such a weak opinion. It looks like doing something for the sake of looking busy.

He was apparently scumreading Rogers, then later unvotes and drops some awkward tidbit about not having meta on anyone. Annnnnd its gone! His scumread on Rogers is just gone after that.

And I dislike that hes trying to mislynch Yates for ~reasons~.

And this case on pisskop also makes me think pisskop is town.

Mastin I do understand that you are having issues with reading all the pages, with the consideration of time limit to deadline, maybe just focus on stuff regarding the two main wagons? That should at least give you some reads and something to discuss.

Assessment: they both suck. We need another option.

Your alignment is irrelevant to this. Your short-sightedness is that you fail to see how people might prefer a Luca lynch to a talah lynch. Also, talah, if you're town, get that vote off yourself. If you don't want to play anymore, then vote Luca, see how the day pans out and then replace out tomorrow if that's still the case. Don't screw the game up.
As I've said before, I will do what's necessary to avoid a no lynch, and that includes moving my vote to talah. However, for now I see no need to do this and instead would call on those who are not on talah or Luca to choose between these, because we're not lynching anyone else today. A vote elsewhere is a vote for no lynch, which is a horrible outcome for town.

Damon's scum, talah/Luca's alignments regardless. Luca's definitely not scum. talah

could

be, but this doesn't come from a town player.

/65.

I also think his self-voting is purely manipulative, especially in light of wanting the town to get information from the lynches.

Self-voting manipulative, sure, but that's the TOWN manipulation. If talah had a major-near-100% town/scumread (or better yet, both), he'd have pulled off a classic Mastin gambit. He could be scum manipulating, but I sincerely doubt that.

meh

vote: Talah

more than willing to switch to Luca if it makes it further

Yep. This? This is scum.

Talah and Luca are both town. Damon and anxiety are both scum.

I know it's an unpopular position on this site but I'd literally rather no-lynch than lynch someone I think is town.

fuck it I'd rather talah stay around than luca

vote: luca

Lucy. You've got some 'splainin' to do.

Another post that gives me ThAd scumbuddy vibes.

1804 makes BPC look town.

Town: Nero, Peregrine, Anxiety, aptil (pretty town for vig claim)
Probably town, want to talk to them more: Yates, mastin
Town? Possibly stale reads, could be (probably is?) a scum here: Snork, PA, Snowstorm, Damon Gant
Meh: Pmatt, RM
Scummy: TheWayItEnds, Bipolar, ThAdmiral, DV

this reads list almost makes me think that the mafia team is defunct. ThAd in the scumpile looks like team disagreement on the slot, so maybe he's town?

@Snork

- I love post 1790 right up until the NKA. I see others have addressed this but yeah - NKA is p-much a wifom bomb.

I'm surprised to see Chemist in the Town list. Can you explain? Other than that, I like your Town list. [oh - bc of his return post? meh]

Also, pisskop slot [TheWayItEnds] is scum. I'm putting matt in the scum pile too.

I might come around on ThAd scum but I want him to be Town. I still have him in my "to be sorted" pile with mastin, Pere and Nero.

SnowStorm is playing a good game. I have him leaning Town but my confidence is shaky. When I start thinking I may be wrong, he responds with a strong post or good logic when pressed. I haven't played with him enough to know what this means but I don't remember him being this - logical? focused? organized? - in Rocky Horror.

I think PA is going to help me read the Rogers slot so I'm not voting there.

how likely do ya all think it is that we have one large scum team or two scum teams and how likely do you think it is we have a SK?

I wouldn't rule out a limited shot SK or some kind of odd-night vs even-night scum team. But I'm inclined to believe Aptil. While I don't do NKA I also don't think scum would waste a shot on a potential easy mislynch. [then again - what an awesome play for an SK to earn an obv-Town read!] I'm playing as if we have one scum team because I don't think it matters.

I'm going to:
VOTE: TheWayItEnds

Looking forward to seeing death or contribution from this slot.

And this post also suggests maybe different stances on Town-ThAd.

1821 and surrounding posts suggest the run on Snork was scum going after a townie.

Also town reading ThAd and 4nxi3ty for seeing what I did yesterday. Mild town read on mastin2 for not trying to blend into a wagon.

Really? Can you explain the Thad and Anxiety reads?

And this feels like a realllly weak reason to be townreading mastin. I could easily see mastin hard defending 2 town lynches as scum, why can't you?

More evidence against ThAd scum I think. This is one of the few posts where he mentions mastin in day 2 so far, and it's all been "town read but I need to see more from him" and "I could get paranoid about him". He's not calling her wrong on the mastin read. It's a subtle discredit.

Ya, but he was calling RM town for that reason before Thad got involved at all. I can understand thinking that a scummy player making a scummy push on an easy target makes them more town, but "Bad case on someone --> they are town" baffles me.

But I have less than zero interest in arguing Nero's townread on RM with him right now since I ultimately think both are town.

I've been sort of all over the place Today, so lets monologue about people in the spirit of regrouping:

penguin_alien - I dislike her posts about mastin. She seems somewhat undecided on mastin and shows no real interest in talking to her to resolve that. I'd expect her to be interested in mastin swooping in to add to her snowstorm wagon since she is apparently loosely suspicious of mastin when questioned about her. Reads more like posturing than actually trying to determine mastin's alignment, meh. Still Rogers posts feel unlikely to be from scum? Meh.

Snork - Town. Already largely discussed.

TheWayItEnds - I liked the original posts with Nero, felt like he wasn't nervous. Later contributions have fallen off and his RM votepark is pretty lame and easy. Sketchiest vote on the RM wagon just to take it off, post some bullshit about Yates who voted him, and go back to lurking? Scummy.

Egg - Egg has done fuck-all so far, but replaced BipolarChemist so Scummy.

Nero Cain - Pretty sure he's town. Reads like HPATPL/GoW Nero, aggressive, pointed.

aptil - Gets a pass for Vig claim. Is town barring reason to suspect SK/multiball.

Yates - I like his TWIE vote and that TWIE isn't gaining any traction makes TWIE less likely to be town tbh. Mindset and frustration reads town to me. His follow up on PA looks town-motivated. Town.

projectmatt - Who? Mostly a non-presence. Not doing anything that looks like scum hunting. Throws some townreads around and lurks. Meh leaning toward hm.

PeregrineV - Has basically done nothing Today. Still think hes probtown from Yestreday's posts, would like to see him step it up though.

mastin2 - Lurking is generally not a mastin thing regardless of anything and this is getting a little ridiculous, I realize RL sucks, but I could reallllly use you to bounce reads off of if you are town in this game. 2004/5 feels like town stream of thought, but mastin can fake that sort of thing as scum so meh. Meh. Probably not scum if PA is.

SnowStorm - Shows up to respond to case on him and not much else recently. Writes off my pressure as bullshit and justifies to Anxiety that its easier to detect bullshit about him than other place. Defense is scummy and general lack of proactive play; very reactionary. Scummy.

Damon_Gant - Actually back to leaning town here on an ISO skim. Dont at all get what mastin is seeing here and she should back that up.

4nxi3ty - Suspicion on Snowstorm is town as fuck, since that is something townies tend to be paranoid about. Could be dropping fake tells as scum, but strongly doubt it. Reaction to pressure has felt genuine.

RachMarie - Lol.

ThAdmiral - Meh?

DeasVail - I'd lynch it.

Ok, so it looks like he was setting PA up for scumbuddy with Mastin.

The ThAdmiral and DV are the ones that stand out as possible buddies. Also Matt but I can rule that one out

K. Are we seriously back to 5 days left until deadline?

Nero, RM, Yates, Anxiety, PV, Snork, [aptil-slot], thadmiral are all pretty town.

Townblock, start suggesting good lynches and why.

I want TWIE, Matt, or Snow right now the most. Could maybe do mastin (not really a scumread, but decent compromise at this point), Egg (replaced Bipolar, doesnt feel like town-egg really).

I think I'd rather not lynch DV today actually. Someone throw something out.

Ok, so ThAd has rehabilitated at this point and he's searching for an alternative to Mastin. Hmm. Not sure what to think about this but I'm getting ThAd-scum vibes again.

Talk to me about my reads.

Alright.

Mister Rogers/PA
Snork
AngryPidgeon
BipolarChemist/Egg
Yates
PeregrineV

PA's null to me overall right now.
Snork's posting looks town, but feels like it has to be an alt. It feels like this level of drive and familiarity could only come from an insider. So if Snork really weren't an alt, I'd actually feel like scum if that makes sense.
AP's a concern, since he's not feeling the townvibes.
I liked BipolarChemist's posting and Egg's has continued the trend.
Yates is null, as is PV. Don't really remember anything from either of them.

With a lynch list of {Snork/PA/Yates/AP/PV/Thad}, basically the only one I wouldn't want lynched is ThAd, whose posting does look town to me.

This is from a quotestripe wall and part of a hurried catchup. The ThAd comment is interesting. She's nullpiling/concern-reading other known scum.

Yates, where are you? Talk to me about your thoughts on current events please. I don't think mastin is a good lynch today. Where do you stand on Thad?

@Matt: I may go summarize that in a bit, but Ive talked about Snow quite a bit Today.

That first paragraph is pretty cool!

I also really liked the comment about "the 2 off the wagons because RachMarie said so". When the wagons were almost ENTIRELY split in half the playerlist, AND were both on town, you cannot use that kind of dumb logic to scumhunt... by some kind of arbitrary fucking formula.

I meant it when I said RM is blacklisted. I hope someone fucking shoots her. I want her out of this game regardless of her alignment. She's a fucking liability.

VOTE: Snork.

This is not town ranting.

Wondering about a Snork-PA-TWIE-4nxi3ty scumteam.

I'm tempted to say there's no scum at all in the proposed scumteam.

So after those posts the triple ISO got pretty funny and I'm not sure what I think about all the crazy claim counterclaim stuff on the 3rd page of the triple ISOs.

And holy shit I'm awake past 5 am working on this.

This helped me identify some other isos and some contextual areas to focus on, but probably not until I get some sleep.

[fferyllt]

FFery, not sure if you've seen this but Snork has claimed gunsmith with 'no gun' results on me N1 and TWIE N3, and a positive result on AP night 2.

I saw there was a gunsmith guilty on AP in the iso, but didn't stop to figure out who the gunsmith was.

[fferyllt]

I want to read RM's reaction to the JOAT Claim

Since it looks like most claims are on the table I'll add mine so's to add another target to the mix for scum.
I can clear up the N2 4nxi3ty kill.

That was Matt. I'm an X-Shot vig.

[fferyllt]

welp.

I'm still way short on sleep so I'm nowhere near ready to get into gamesolving mode.

The reason I asked for claim info earlier was because I wanted to see if the n2 kill info was critical today. A scan of my predecessors' iso indicated there had been no claim. I was curious about that when I saw there'd been a vig kill claim on talah.

[fferyllt]

Actually I didn't ask for claim info. I thought I put that at the bottom of my spoilered wall. sleep-posting. :/

[fferyllt]

What.
The.
Fuck.

How does a town vig not claim that shot.... especially with gunsmith running around.

ff is 4nx the only person youve shot at?

Snork... we're not shooting SiX. His posts are mostly shit, but hes still probtown at this point.

According to the mod, yes. 4nxi3ty was matt's only target.

[fferyllt]

Just a small question, is there a possibility with 2 mafia factions, 1 mafia faction shoots every even round and the other every odd round?
The reason for this is Yates (first vote) on Mastin2, and Yates + AP's interactions. May be a Yates - AP team and a Mastin - X team?

In every game I'e ever seen with multifactions, the scum teams had different names and different flip colors.

I thought I read in the setup post that all the configurations were one each (at most) of mafia and werewolf, and potentially a small number of SKs.

[fferyllt]

useless? you mean as a gunsmith target?

I try to be at least a little better than useless in games!

[fferyllt]

Well, I just want to understand the foundation of the town read. I have personally been extremely conflicted about his slot. Day 2 I really felt he might be town, but his flip on Nero was odd, combined with his D1 play, and his disappearance today, as well as the idea that we now are looking at 2 mafia left, making Yates et al bussing him more plausible, he's probably not a bad option.

PV - if we're wrong, what are your reads, investigation choices, vig choices?

Quick and dirty, since replace-ins are throwing me off.


Nominally cleared

bjc

Snork -GUNSMITH

Doc Holliday

pisskop

TheWayItEnds- NO GUN

aptil

SiX -JOAT (VIG, BG)

BBmolla

projectmatt

fferyllt- VIG
DeasVail -NO GUN

Cleared by me:
PeregrineV

Remaining (will do a post for each):
SnowStorm
Damon_Gant
ThAdmiral

BipolarChemist

Egg

Mister Rogers

penguin_alien

zakk

talah

TOWN

Smudger

AngryPidgeon

SCUM

Luca Blight

TOWN

Nero Cain

TOWN

Yates

SCUM

mastin2

SCUM

4nxi3ty

TOWN

RachMarie

TOWN JOAT (JK, FN)

Zdenek

TOWN

Where's PA?

[fferyllt]

Ok so SiX is going to bodyguard me, ffery is going to shoot someone not ThAd within {SnowStorm, DG}, and I'm going to investigate ThAd.

Alright PV. I'm interested to see those.

I'm not going to say whether I'll shoot tonight or not. I will take advice under consideration, but most likely if I shoot it will be the player I feel most sure is scum provided they aren't being gunsmithed.

[fferyllt]

Last one on the 'remaining' list.

ah...strikethrus. I'm going to drink another cup of coffee and go back to sleep. Possibly in that order.

[fferyllt]

That's fine too, but I think if you openly decide to shoot within a group of selected people, we're forcing scum to protect themselves, rather than offensively using any power roles they may have.

I will post a pool of players I might shoot once I've got it worked out.

[fferyllt]

Mister Rogers - Penguin Alien

97 - calls out ThAd for playing like a low experience player wrt bjc.

111 - doesn't feel like a scumbuddy post Neither does 199

249 - looks like town analysis. I know a few meta players who can churn this out without working up a sweat as scum. Might meta dive some of his games depending on how the rest of the iso goes.

253 - also looks like town analysis despite misreads. I remember Yates replacing into a game a few months ago. He was scum, but did a great job of towning it up early. 255 he walked the read back due to Nero's triple-vote?

273 - thinks Thad and Pere are scum-greeted.

285 - mentions 2 people are voting PV for scummy reasons. those two were....Yates and RachMarie. More fuel for town-MR.

363 - the yates push on pere is enough to draw his vote. this makes me question pere as part of their scumteam given the timeframe. I doubt yates would have bussed this early.

376 - townposting

459 - this post really pulled together the loose ends and questions I had about the players he was pushing and why. I really have difficulty imagining this kind of interaction with scumbuddies, especially the daytalk angle.

Mister Rogers' last 150 or so posts of are just painful to read after seeing how talah was set up by scum-Mastin early on day 1, didn't know how to process it, didn't know how to recover, and his reads and stances fell apart. The last half of day 1 really sucks to read, especially knowing that talah was apparently killed by a town teammate on night 1. There is probably some useful stuff in terms of Mister Roger's observations about other players, but I can't extract it tonight.

I feel pretty confident he was town. So the sentiment about PA that was expressed after I replaced in doesn't make a lot of sense, especially given the way AP kept discrediting her on day 2.

Let's see what her ISO shows.

1662 - she's got issues with all three flipped scum.

Reading on from there, the evolution of her mastin read looks natural. I liked her irritable snaps about being warned off from commenting on a scum read, and her overall irritability at times. In the games I've played with scum-PA she's been emotionally very neutral for the most part.

From iso it's hard to see what led to the day 2 snowstorm scumread. Would like some clarification there.

2418 - peng in this post you voted my predecessor. I'm going to go ahead and ask why you seemed to so easily accept my role claim this morning. The fact that there are two killers claiming vig-joat and x-shot vig doesn't mean both or even either are town.

[fferyllt]

You're assuming scum don't have a doc. You're assuming both "town" killers are town.

You're probably making other assumptions, too.

I don't have a full grip on the gamestate yet but this complacency worries me.

[fferyllt]

Ok so SiX is going to bodyguard me, ffery is going to shoot someone not ThAd within {SnowStorm, DG}, and I'm going to investigate ThAd.

Alright PV. I'm interested to see those.

Is there a reason why you don't have a pool of at least 2 players to choose from?

[fferyllt]

Ok, going with

Vote: PeregrineV

I am cautious because his posting does feel town, but I feel there are better reasons for not lynching the others and what I keep coming back to is that in-thread Day 1 mason thing with AP, which comes across as showy to me more than anything else on reread.

Who are "the others"? And what are the reasons for not lynching them?

[fferyllt]

and he fits as a partner to mastin/AP/Yates.

How so?

[fferyllt]

I need to finish going through isos, but it's extremely helpful seeing the thoughts of players who lived in the thread during the previous 3 days.

Pere and ThAd are on today's to-do list. If that doesn't burn up all my free time, then I'll do Damon_Gant or DV next.

[fferyllt]

127 pages is a lot to process. There's no way I'm going to know the game like I lived it the first 3 days. But I'm not going to say "lolnope not reading" and make a decision based on the last 5-10 pages.

[fferyllt]

Late Night Gut speaking.

Town

Mister Rogers

penguin_alien

bjc

Snork

aptil

SiX - the parallels with other roles are troubling and I'll freak out if we're both alive for much longer but here for now.

Maybe Town

PeregrineV - effort since I've been in the game looks like town game-solving
DeasVail - I almost always scumread him. The scum triple iso makes me lean town.

--- from here down I feel like I have more homework to do ---

Not So Town

Damon_Gant - could put him in noeffencllue but here's good for now.
ThAdmiral - like deas, I've scumread ThAd in nearlly every game we've played, but there's something about his play under pressure when he's town that always speaks to me. I'm not seeing it here.

NoEffenCllue

BipolarChemist

Egg
SnowStorm

Doc Holliday

pisskop

TheWayItEnds - want to review the pisskop posts

[fferyllt]

Before: Luca Blight [3] (Damon_Gant, 4nxi3ty, talah)
...
After: 4nxi3ty [4] (ThAdmiral, Damon_Gant, talah, Luca Blight)

This looks funny, in a bad way. Can we just lynch them all?

I like this post, it has a townfeel but 3 of these people were town.

The only thing that really bugs me about Luca is the fact that my scum reads are advocating it as an acceptable lynch.

My top town reads right now are you, MR, AP, Pisskop, Zd and mastin. Second tier would be Yates, DV, 4nx and pmatt.
Top scum reads are Talah, Thad, aptil, DG, Rach.

Nulls are nero (for now - his ISO is on my list), Luca, and PV (who I was originally scum reading, but not sure if correct yet based on other posts).

Where would you disagree?

I have a town read on AP too. Pisskop is still kinda null, some people seem to suspect him and I haven't looked much into him yet and while I don't dislike his posts it is not enough to give him a townread.

I have a weaker town read on DV too. As for 4nxiety, I have mixed feelings.

I haven't devoted much thought to mastin, Yates, pmatt, Nero and PV, but I haven't seen anything in their posts that would make me consider lynching them today, so for now they're in the null pile.

Talah is a mess and is in a tier of his own.

Rach is nullish but I'm not a big fan of her latest posts. So she's in between the null pile and scum leaning.

Aptil. I think I'm leaning town on him. I have played with him before (on Westeros mafia), more times than I remembered, because most of the games he played in he ended up being replaced for low activity. The only game where he wasn't replaced was the only game where he was scum, where he looked more proactive and involved. Now while I don't think this is a strong point to town read him for, I don't get a scum feeling from his posts either. So I'd say he's a weak town read atm.

Reads list is kinda middle of the road for that point in time. Based on my piecemeal reading of isos, I feel like there was nothing in this list that was against the prevailing thread currents.

Am I correct?

1412 is pretty long to quote so I won't but this interaction with Yates doesn't look scum-to-scum to me.

I seriously don't understand why some people think as town that it is 'ok' to get lynched. In the end this is a game of numbers and if you know you're town and you are fine with your lynch rather than someone else's, then you're not playing to your win condition, because when you're town, every lynch that is not yours has a chance to be a scum lynch.

Even if you've become a distraction to town, it's your job to get them to see past the distraction or to at least try. Because if town can't see past it then I doubt they can successfully catch the scum team either.

Now to prove you're town, you could start by analyzing your lynch wagon now, instead of telling us to do so after your flip. That sounds much more productive, since doing so could possibly prevent your lynch and in the best case scenario catch scum! And this is for both talah and Luca.

^^ theory, but it's of the "buck up if you're town" variety and a reach-out. Also feels town.

1724 - not only do I like the post from a town-SnowStorm perspective, I like the observations about ThAd. Also liked the followup posts.

1963 - also a townfeeling interaction with AP (and another brick in my ThAd read).

1975 - same.

Going to stop calling out this sort of post because there are lots of them.

Town

Putting SnowStorm in my townpile.

[fferyllt]

3170 is a self-goad and an effort to be transparent about the trajectory of my reads. The timeframe is pretty telescoped and I'm processing the thread in a very unnatural way, but I want the accountability.

[fferyllt]

See post 3171.

[fferyllt]

Damon Gant

- something to note is his join date. this is his first game in 2 years. so there's a vintage aspect to his play that needs to be taken into account.

104 - this, addressed to bjc about his "I'm scum" post comes off ridiculously tryhard and overworked. vintage? rusty? maybe.

118 - draws a bead on Mastin. mild townpoint?

130 - this establishes a pattern, something also in 118 of "what I'm gonna do later", which pings a little but could be personality/style.

131 - the reads disagreement looks pretty town. No mention though of other players now known to be scum except Smudger for not posting. Could be because he was active earlier than they were.

202 has a townpost feel.

221 - sadly I can see a town player who doesn't know mastin putting this effort in and reaching the conclusion. But...he didn't show his work.

475 - I can see scum-AP pushing a scumbuddy with this sort of softball.

542 - no known scum in the homework list.

643 - lays out good reasons for his approach of pressuring lurkers. I feel like this is a vintage/site meta thing. The site trend has been toward more and more tolerance of lurkers. 657 at least has one known scum in it, but is a player he hadn't mentioned at all before - yates

725 - a pushback at yates and reads list:

I am indeed "eyeballing everyone". Yesterday I looked at the ISO of literally every person in the game except yourself (because heavens knows going through your ISO is going to be a chore). I didn't promise that I was going to post detailed reads on every person in the game, because honestly, most of my thoughts are still going by gut and it wouldn't be useful to do so. However, if you want a list of my gut feels then

Scum: Luca, aptil, 4nxiety, SnowStorm, bjc
Null: Pisskop,

mastin

, Nero, yourself, Rach,

Yates

, DV
Townreads to some degree: Everyone else

I don't think that's a particularly useful exercise, but at least you now know where I stand approximately on every player in the game.

This would be pretty classic inexperienced scum to put 2 scumbuddies in the nullpile.

734 feels town.

749 in reply to yates doesn't feel like a scum-scum interaction. :/ Same with 753.

781 is just a thing of beauty. I am really having trouble seeing how a rusty scumplayer getting pummeled by Mr Rogers and others would take such a bold stance and suggest the 4nxi3ty wagon. So's the later switch back to Luca. If that's not "idgaf what this looks like" I don't know what is. I'm tempted to stop here and call DG town.

1244 stance on talah. I could see this coming from someone who knows talah will flip town. 1247 though, is pretty insightful.

1305 wagon herding, which also gives me a town feel in isolation. And the call-out of AP in 1372

1478 is so prophetic I doubt a scum player of his experience level would voice it.

1606 wondering if this is the crux of the scumreads on Damon. And 1613 comes off as town working hard to prevent a nolynch

1696 calling AP out again, this time for wking Luca.

1729 doesn't feel like scum damon talking to scum AP. AP was fairly well positioned to go deep at that point and is not the player you'd call out for a shitty towncase if you're on his team IMO.

1843 feels like town frustrated by the mist.

1949 mastin voted him for going after ThAd's day 1 vanity wagon. hmm

2042 could be a scumslip, not reading the opening post well enough to notice the 2nd kill.
2123 was a weak case on deas, but does have the feel of town casting about trying to find a new direction.

2157 is a decent looking reads list. null reading AP and Yates, scumreading Mastin. AP fell from an earlier town read with plenty of trajectory.

2631 is probably where a lot of the scumreading originates. Willing to switch to mastin, but doesn't. And day 3 doesn't make it into the thread until after the gunsmith guilty on AP.

2911 is some good analysis.

His play today looks like his stance was shattered (it was) and he's looking in the right places to find more scum. The Mastin stance feels like town confusion rather than scum hoping things will change to me. Reading the thread at that point, I think any partner of Mastin's would have concluded it was bus for town cred time with 4 hours to go and no sign of Mastin pulling a rabbit out of her hat.

I'd like for someone who is strongly scumreading Damon to explain it to me. Maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees in these ISOs.

[fferyllt]

@FFery-

Issues with Damon- Yates was a null read the whole game, with stated intent to research further, which never happened.

What I saw in the ISO was that he'd go off and do research but often not report it or report it sketchily if he was buttonholed. I dunno. I thought it fits with his overall playstyle.

Daomn starts out scumreading Mastin, let's him off with Mastin self-meta by page 10 one post after this:

I never bring up my meta unless someone else brings up an erroneous version of it, like talah did. Regardless of alignment, I don't fight meta that's correct (even if the conclusion is wrong--yes, it is possible to be right on meta yet wrong on the read, because a town-me evolves [and even frequently incorporates successful elements of my scumplay into my towngame!] and a scum-me is capable of mimicking my townplay fairly accurately); regardless of alignment, I will shoot down meta that is wrong.

To give my most recently-completed towngame, look at Tales of Vesperia, the Wallduskkel hydra. It should be fairly obvious which posts are me and which came from Ald. It's not the best game to meta me off of (there are much better ones), but it's the most recently completed game, giving you the most contemporary meta I have.

Then, AP "corrects" Mastin

People's reaction to my first post has been stupid. Mastin's in particular seems like he just has a problem with just the way that I weighed my words. It's how I post - particularly if I'm making a post with quite a simple and concise point. Indeed, just in general, I don't find Mastin's reads to be very good. The certainty in them is obviously part of his meta, but I do disagree with pretty much all of it. I'm not sure if posting such disagreeable reads is part of his meta! I don't have any particularly strong feelings on his proposal for a limit of posting - but as others do, I guess that's not happening.

I spent quite a while staring at this post cause it felt important. Leaning town I think. Its waffly as fuck, but the train of thought reads genuine. Despite the lack of satisfying conclusion, its still making his opinion plain and its fairly followable.

That said, while talah's scum...

VOTE: Damon Gant.

...My scumread here is much, much stronger.

Mastin, get back on Talah TIA.

I'm willing to discuss Gant with you but I reaaally dont think hes scum?

Talah continues to OMGUS literally everything in 108.

Mastin next lets go mostly (469) and never brings up Gant again until 1733.

Sets up a Damon/Gant scum dichotomy, 1791 & 2004, but when he leaves 4nxiety, he moves to Snowstorm(!) wagon (2005).

Back to 4nxiety (2244), then BAM, Damon is town (2246) with never a mentiopn by Gant of this change in Mastin's read on him.

As far as I can find, despite continued Mastin attacks, Gant never defends against or refutes any of it. And they start working together on the Snow lynch (2042, 2077) which has both AP and mastin before 4xniety derails it.

Gant also joins Mastin on the TWIE wagon, but when Mastin comes up for a lynch, Gant never votes his null read (2631).

For AP, Gant is a town read, but by 1806 and 1907 Damon back to null, but town by 2066.

Yates never indicates a read on Gant, but dresses him down fully in 2 posts for gant calling Yates a lurker.

Result- Compared to Snow, this screams scum. He is town-read by scum when need be, but also set up in case bussing needs to take place.

Scum-Mastin, when she attacks someone, it's hellaciously hard to refute because it's so insubstantial in terms of refutable points. The problem is, her points as town are sometimes equally insubstantial. There's a difference, I think, though I may not have enough data points to catch it in the moment yet. I'm not sure.

Anyway.

I could be just sympathizing way too much with players in this game who got the scum-Mastin treatment. Talah was one. DG was one. I think DG was being set up.

[fferyllt]

Realize who all just voted Damon guys...

How many of the three are you thinking are scum?

[fferyllt]

VOTE: ThAd

With 22 hours left I'm not going to be able to do much more in the way of serious ISO analysis. Sorry I didn't get more done during the time I've had toDay.

Snork, I'd like for ThAd to be in my shoot pool if he's not lynched today.

What would that do to your gunsmith choices?

[fferyllt]

I'll look as much as I can at the last 3.

Since we disagree so fundamentally on the last one I did, I'm kinda meh about this. :/

[fferyllt]

That looks good. All three will get a thorough ISO with known scum before I decide where to shoot.

[fferyllt]

I'll look as much as I can at the last 3.

Since we disagree so fundamentally on the last one I did, I'm kinda meh about this. :/

Yeah, but I'm merely pointing them out. I can and have been fooled before by reading stuff that isn't there.

Do you want me to continue?

I do.

[fferyllt]

Doc Holliday/Pisskop/TWIE

Just a passing comment on Doc Holliday - I think I have one game with him and IIRC he was an SK. His slot went through a ton of replacements and I'm pretty sure he wasn't town but not enough to go back and look. It was your large normal, Pere.

Anyway, his posts come off with a ton more stance than what he posted in that game. Reading them results in a mild town sense.

Pisskop put more into the game. I like his early posts, especially his approach to bjc which is pretty much where I would have been if I'd been playing at that point...I think. Hard to say as a replace-in.

410 - the read support looks townminded. His suspicion of Yates looks genuine.

424 - this post reminds me that in the first game I played with Pisskop his thought process and sentence structure was MUCH harder to follow. He was town. One of the things I noted when I meta'd him in that game was that in his only completed game at the time his posts looked much more thought out as scum (the completed game). So his posting here doesn't have that scattered feel to it. It could be an artifact of computer vs phoneposting.

437 is good analysis. I think this is a relatively early mastin-scum read (overall in the game thread iirc but I'm mostly reading the thread in ISOs)

465 looks like way more effort than one scum player would put into fabricating a read on another. I'm tempted to just stop right here and call them town.

471 feels like a good, confident pushback to pere.

476 this walkback of his impression of Mister Rogers also looks town.

Loved his pushback to Zdenek. "get bent or get a case" sounds town as fuck to me.

857 - last reads list.

I srsly want to call the slot town solely on the basis of pisskop's tone and stances.

1921 doesn't look like scum-scum interaction with AP to me.

[post]1977[/post] neither does this with yates. Given both AP and yates were pushing him this looks like opportunistic scum smelling town blood.


2080 - the main thing I don't like about this post is that there's no mention of yates in it. Otherwise it feels like a decent reads list with enough against the grain thinking that it gives me townfeels.

2117, 2159- more yates interaction that doesn't look scum-scum.

2161 building on that and finishing with an AP vote. Holy shit guys, 2/3 of the scum team was on this guy. Look at this vs their interactions with each other.

whole lot of posts I like but am not going to comment on because I hate walling

2597 coupled with 2616 just looks awesome to me. He had no scum motivated reason to pirouette off a town lurker wagon and onto the Mastin wagon.

Read through the rest of his ISO but I'm not going to comment on it except that Pere pushing this slot makes Pere look scummy as fuck, except I've seen Pere's scumhunting go utterly weird places before.

Pere, I'd really like for you to explain how CONTEXTUALLY you could possibly see the interactions between this slot and known scum as scum-scum.

[fferyllt]

Remind me why SiX is in the shoot pool?

I missed the significance here.

Future gamestate changes should take care of whether SiX or I need to be of concern. He shouldn't be in either pool IMO.

[fferyllt]

Pere, I'd really like for you to explain how CONTEXTUALLY you could possibly see the interactions between this slot and known scum as scum-scum.

Snork cleared TWIE as no-gun. So I could do the above, but it'd be kind of a waste of time.

If a no-gun player is some GodFather or mafia doc role, then my choice for it would be DV.

Your push on him prior to that revelation though. Just wow.

I know we approach the game really differently based on past experience. But still.

[fferyllt]

So, I've been trying to figure whether I'd buy a scum doc plus 2 town who would result in 3 false reads for the gunsmith makes sense. I'm leaning no but it's a very slight no.

Which is why I wanted to develop a read on the gunsmith inno player. If there is a scum-doc, I seriously doubt it's TWIE.

[fferyllt]

3179 is better, but I wish you hadnt started with snow, whos pretty low on the lynch list for most people.

I have things to say about 3170 but if you're planning to do more posts like 3179 I'd rather see those first.

You want to get back to this?

[fferyllt]

Revised Reads

Town

Mister Rogers

penguin_alien

bjc

Snork

aptil

SiX - the parallels with other roles are troubling and I'll freak out if we're both alive for much longer but here for now.
SnowStorm - based on review

Doc Holliday

pisskop

TheWayItEnds - based on review

Maybe Town

Damon_Gant - ISO including interactions looked town, but I don't feel as strongly town about him as I do the other two I moved up.
PeregrineV - effort since I've been in the game looks like town game-solving. As he points out, reads haven't been good.
DeasVail - I almost always scumread him. The scum triple iso makes me lean town. By PoE this and Pere are my weakest townreads and given the game state it means I'd consider both possibly scum.

Not So Town

ThAdmiral - like deas, I've scumread ThAd in nearlly every game we've played, but there's something about his play under pressure when he's town that always speaks to me. I'm not seeing it here.

NoEffenCllue

BipolarChemist

Egg - Still on my homework list.

[fferyllt]

Isn't DeasVail cleaned by Snork?

I don't want to put someone aside purely on the basis of a gunsmith inno. These are ISO based reads.

[fferyllt]

PA I hate to be a lazy ass but I need a break from ISOs. What are your current thoughts about Egg?

[fferyllt]

BipolarChemist/Egg

BPC's early posts have a relaxed feel to them.

115 pings a bit. both the comment about Mister Rogers "seemingly", and the reply to Mastin's joke post.

Didn't like the Rach read after that and reading further I smiled to see Matt agreed.

147 also pings. fishing for reasons for the scumread.


151 I dunno. I could be already developing a nasty confirmation bias. I could read this as setting up for an eventual mastin scumflip.

lol right here is where the dayvig shot happened. I had to flip to context and finally read through it.

I dunno. I hate to give up that scumread. Will flip back through the scum ISOs later. For now, I'm resetting.

...and then he washes dishes plays a game and disappears for 2-3 days, makes 2 comments and then disappears for the rest of the week. 1000 posts later, rejoins the game.

1660 - first reads list. Has Mastin null-scum. Has Yates scum. Has AP town.

Enter Egg

2133 is a strong-looking catchup post, though I totally disagree with his MR read obv. The reaction to Deas looks town, I think. The comment about AP later in the post looks like the kinda thing scum-me would say to or about a scumbuddy. :/. The call out of Mastin's read looks good.


2286 is better. 2306 though not so much. Huge pile of players happy to vote and only 1 known scum in them. There's been no mention of Yates to this point either.

He voted ThAd. then:

2340 "wait Mastin and projectmatt" could happen? Then in next post votes...PA. Fairly big gap there, but the PA vote has trajectory via 2286 and earlier comments.

2422 Kind of explains some of that vote shuffle.

2449 is a reads list. There are some against the current reads here, which I kinda like.

2463 This is also something I would do as scum if I noticed a PR. But, would Rach still be alive at that point if scum were aware of the crumb? Probably not.

2474 and 75 give me a townsense.

2482 - are there theories on why this didn't happen?

2589 - looks town given Mastin's flip.

The back and forth with SiX at the start of day 3 looks town as fuck. so is 2701 and 2711. Basically all of his day 3 posts look town.

Day 4 since I showed up hasn't impressed me. But I have to remember that town must feel like the game is nearly solved. I felt like Egg since I started was as apathetic looking as ThAd, but his play is actually stronger looking in ISO than I thought.

Ok, so that was a roller coaster of an ISO but I'm leaning town now.

[fferyllt]

PA I hate to be a lazy ass but I need a break from ISOs. What are your current thoughts about Egg?

His entry was weird as hell. It took forever to get him to explain that his 'scum reads' were based on wagon position of the Day One lynch. I don't think he'd have come in like that as scum. The reaction testing, it's dicey for scum to get results they can use in that situation. I guess he could gamble on getting one usable result, but it's such a divergence from his teammates, and at !east AP and Yates were in decent position upon his entry.

He really spurred the mastin wagon. It was a time when the urgency was believable, but not so close to deadline as to be futile. And the mastin lynch triggered the AP one. I have a hard time seeing a replacement coming in and screwing over his team like that. Only reason that changes is if scum have daytalk, and even so I think it's a very unusual line to take.

With what happened on D3, he showed flexible thinking in considering my reaction to Snork. Scum would have tried to chain my mislynch off AP's.

His reactions and thought processes feel pro-town and genuine today.

That doesn't take his predecessor into account.

I didn't see this until I posted my wall. I'm kinda happy it confirms my overall feel as I read through the ISO.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

[fferyllt]

lol. rereading that post, I see how certain my gut is about pere vs ThAd.

I've been fully expecting there to be a night 4.

Pere isn't in the lynch lead anymore? I have a mental L-1 beside his name but Snork unvoted last page.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Are you going to ISO ThAd? (Or have you already?) I'd like to know what you think of mastin's read on him, since you seem to have some experience with her meta, because that read is the only question mark I have on my ThAd scum read. Does that read fit her scum meta? Or would she have a good reason to town-read a town-Thad, even if he didn't really look town?

ThAd, Pere and Deas tonight I hope, but time is growing short.

I'm a little reluctant to make my shot any easier to guess than I already have because I want the biggest bulls eye possible drawn on me tonight. But otoh I want my thoughts about possible lynch targets tomorrow in the thread. My research order has had some competing goals.

[fferyllt]

There's no way we have a 16:4 setup here...? Not with three flipped goons and minimum four town PRs. So night four is pretty much a surety.

And vig kills (from two sources), which statistically aren't very pro-town. I could see 3 goons and a jk given what we know of the setup.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Do you wanna vote PV so we can lynch scum today?

I'm hoping for more posts from him before the game day ends. I'm willing to move my vote when it's closer to nightfall.

Why do you think PV is more likely scum than ThAd?

[fferyllt]

ThAd

Very early day posts looked good. Easy going scumhunting and good questions. 91 is an example.

94 I probably wouldn't think about at all if it weren't addressed to mastin. The "glad you're townreading me and all" preface to the meaty question pings a tiny bit.

103 - is good pushback to MR's question about him taking the bjc scum claim seriously.

110 - more pushing Mastin. If this doesn't either slow down or get more hardball further down the ISO page the ping will be louder.

143 - readslist. no known scum mentioned. Not even Mastin who he's questioned twice prior to this post.

201 - reaction to the vig claim, seems almost overdone.

235 - interaction with yates, who called him on the reaction to the fake dayvig. I'm going to call it a town point because Yates calling attention to the post if he's scum seems off. Could be bussing though. the comment about having roughly the same number of town and scum reads directed at zdenek pings too. numbers at that point in the game are mostly driven by scumhunting style and ThAd's been around too long not to have noticed that.

261 - he backs off zdenek when MR challenges him.

271 - about Yates. positive associative?

278 - has a trying to get along feel to it

338 - long post with more get-along and stuff. standout is where he asks pisskop to elaborate on his Yates read. No questions or observations. Just "elaborate". Which stands out compared to his earlier ISO, and this question was about a vote on known scum. Am I overreacting? Maybe.

375 is this a wink wink?

520 this kind of follows on from the earlier posting with AP about never sharing the same alignment before. The "next time I'm scum I'm gonna blah blah" has a cheeky scumfuck feel to it.

796 has more of this feel, now with Yates. I feel like I'm blowing this up out of proportion, but whether ThAd is part of it or just an guileless foil to AP and Yates, I'm seeing a lot of hubris and overconfidence and "we're going to roll this town over" in these exchanges.


]797 part of the self declared campaign to get 4nxi3ty lynched.

1170 feels like a townpost. pissed about his 4nxi3ty wagon failing, doesn't like the luka wagon because of lack of opposition.

1197 is perceptive of Talah's mindset. Slightly different emphasis, i.e., "I have a bad feeling about this wagon" without the perceptive bits would have pinged hard.

1322 a potentially flawed meta case on someone is the easiest thing to ignore and let go on for a scum player. Questioning this, when the person you're interacting with is a strong town presence is something that a scum player simply doesn't need to do. Townpoints for this post.

1323 - this surprised me though I probably saw it from a different vantage point in one of the other isos. MR was not an easy target, and here ThAd is saying he's considering voting him.

1333 Reasons for the sudden stance on MR. Feels town.

1437 Also feels town. This is the STOP THE PRESSES post about aptil (later SiX) Of course the timing was bad...and he later gets some stick for that.

1603 "lol keep digging" gives me a townfeel.

1657 bold words about willing to nolynch rather than lynch a townread. Not words I would expect from scum. Especially considering the main wagons at that point.

As deadline approaches he defends Talah, including to AP.

1744 interaction with Mastin doesn't feel scum-scum.

1836 From this vantage it's hard to see why he became so certain about Rach-scum and she became his reason d'etre.

The interactions with Nero about Rach look like they could be town-motivated.

2114 reads exasperated town, but could be scum caught for wrong reasons?


There's a big post gap between his next 2 posts. In 2116 he asks Yates "Am I scum?" This reminds me so much of something I said to groupscum when I was traitor in a recent game. The scum player asked me if I was scum. My reply was something like "No. Are you?" Then in his next post, 2172 he replies to AP. 2 scum liking his wagon when the pressure on him was at its height?

2296 reads pissed off town. Some scum can do that kind of pissedness as well. I don't know if ThAd is one. Next few posts are more of same without the wall.

Ok, so 3 days later when Nero flipped friendly neighborizer and Rach claimed, it looks like he did a hard reset. It also looks like he kinda lost motivation.

Then 4 days and it's the start of Day 4. His posts look like he's burnt out regarding this game. I think part of the reason I've scumread him based mostly on day 4 plu s the scum ISOs is because the burnout made me think "defeatest scum" and after Days 2 and 3 that's probably how I would feel as scum.

The Damon vote seems odd given that his second pick was so much closer to lynch.

I dunno. The early posts bugged me. The passion of the argument with Nero about Rach looked like a lot for a scum player to invest in at that point. And Day 4, like I said looks pretty defeatest compared to other players working out how they want to proceed, even though the words he's writing are about how good things look for town at this point.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Are you going to ISO ThAd? (Or have you already?) I'd like to know what you think of mastin's read on him, since you seem to have some experience with her meta, because that read is the only question mark I have on my ThAd scum read. Does that read fit her scum meta? Or would she have a good reason to town-read a town-Thad, even if he didn't really look town?

Mastin's official stance is that she hates to bus. I haven't played many scum games with her, but I've followed a few in real time, and meta'd her to hell and back a few times for other games. I think she mostly holds to that principle as scum.

This MD thread she started on the subject might interest you: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=31660

[fferyllt]

I haven't played many scum games with her,

This probably isn't clear. I haven't played any games where we were both scum. She has never played with scum-me, though she may have followed some of the games I've played as scum. I have played maybe 2 games where I was town and she was scum, and have read games I wasn't playing in real time when she was scum.

Her playstyle varies a lot. I think it's the underlying principles that stay more static.

[fferyllt]

PeregrineV

It's 1 am. This may be a ramble.

223. This was his first substantive post after being prodded early day 1. And it's an interaction with Yates. Kind of a sparry interaction. I don't remember him being salty in games this early, but his overall meta has been shifting toward more active and more aggressive recently iirc.

225 is a pretty early reads list. He's called Mastin out as scum and has Yates as town.

234 starts a kinda silly argument with zdenek about the bjc wagon. This is the kind of thread that town-Pere tends to yank and keep worrying.

444 yates accusation of dishonorable play strikes me as something scum probably wouldn't say to/about a partner in the game thread somehow.

455 has a cheeky townfuck feel.

458 this comment about the whole dayvig thing being null has a parallel universe feel to it. By that I mean, he's perfectly happy seeing the game in a completely different way from most other players here. I dunno if this is a town marker, but I think it maybe? My recollection is that he's less in-your-face about being in his own world as scum.

463 another example of him processing the thread differently.

562 response to the accusation of being on the sideline. More disconnect.

563 so AP defended him here with a very similar observation to what I just posted above. It's been kind of eerie going through isos, making comments and then finding these sorts of parallels. It makes me think I'm not too badly synching with this game. But synching with scum is kinda disconcerting. Note to self - scum AP and I may agree more than town AP and I do. :/

564 so, disagreeing with his pisskop read here, but his explanation of what he's doing feels pretty town.

569 some null scum reads on players, mostly who are still in the game. There hasn't been any mention of that mastin scumread in a while.

579 interaction with AP about his "vapid" scum game. poormouthing one's scum game is alignment neutral. AP's post he's replying to doesn't feel like scumbuddy talk :/

588 this is transparency. There have been several examples of it, where he's let players behind the curtain to see what was driving his lines of questioning. This feels town to me.

611 what's missing from this list is...Mastin. Why did she fall of the radar?

769 finally I find the mason stuff. I've seen scum do mason buddy shtick with town players a few times. Never with scum. I don't think scum-Pere would be the trailblazer on this stuff. If AP started then it could be a scum marker.

773 holy fuck the Mastin scumread raises its head.

1464 and 1465 Ok, so here he's given up his Mastin wagon and is moving to Talah, and is getting a ton of attention from AP and Yates. I don't think this looks like a scumteam conclave. I just don't.

2051 Day 2, takes PA to task over not following up on Yates.

2191 Interested in Mastin wagon.


2201 asking yates about Mastin

2322 This defense of ThAd makes me feel bad for Pere given they're now competing wagons. :/

2327 I like this post. AP is testing the waters to see if Pere will vote nero in defense of ThAd. Pere's not interested.

2432 Yates a conditional scumspect. This was prompted by Deas.

2433 Makes me wonder why he didn't push harder for a Mastin lynch?

2911 I'm curious where this Mastin-Bus lore comes from? exactly one? or at most one? 2923 explains it.

This brings me up to day 4, where his posting since my replace-in seemed more town than ThAd.

I would hate to vote him after reading his ISO. It would be pure and suboptimal PoE on my part.

[fferyllt]

My thoughts are in order. I will do some review overnight before taking my shot.

Any questions for me?

Do you wanna vote PV so we can lynch scum today?

I'm hoping for more posts from him before the game day ends. I'm willing to move my vote when it's closer to nightfall.

Why do you think PV is more likely scum than ThAd?

Sorry I left after I posted that.
I see that you went ahead and looked at ThAd but this is what I posted earlier:

ThAd is saved because day 2 happened and he was town in it. I mean sure hes town with shit reads... but hes still prob town.

I mean I'll admit that he isnt really helping himself out today, and maybe theres a reason I'm like the only person in the game town reading him but hand me a hammer and I'd hammer PV 10 out of 10 times here.

And I think I've been pretty clear about PV today.

Your PV read surprises me because its almost exactly opposite of mine, in that I dont think hes put in anything that resembles town effort today. I mean its almost deadline and he barely scraped reads together on 2 out of the 6 players we havent cleared yet.

I mean I know it sucks to fake a bunch of reads when we're just going to kill you anyway but if you're going to pretend to be town at least pretend to be town and actually come up with reads on the player base.

I know this probably isnt as verbose as you wanted but I just got back home and I'm about to pass out so its pretty much all I got.

I think the situation is this:

PV: L-2
ThAd: L-2
Me: L-3

Just over 8 hours to go. Time for us to make a decision. I believe that PV is more likely to flip scum than ThAd but I will acknowledge that PV is contributing a lot more to the game right now.

So we should keep scum around for longer because he has more posts? Thats.... an interesting way of doing things.

.... Time for sleep. I'll try to be awake before deadline but I would much prefer to wake up to a dead PV.

You realize that Pere has put more effort into day 4 than ThAd has, right?

I'm less familiar with ThAd's play than Pere's, and I'm coming off a string of games where I scumread town-Pere (with one scumread of scum-Pere but still). I'm course-correcting really hard.

I went into the isos on ThAd, Pere and Egg hoping to find scum and predisposed to find scum. If I had come away with 3 scum reads I'd worry about confbias.

If we lynch ThAd and he flips town at least it will make my decision easier tonight. If we lynch him and he flips scum and the game doesn't end I'll probably have a nervous breakdown going through a 4-way ISO.

I guess it works out the same way if Pere is the lynch, but my vote will be heavy-hearted.

[fferyllt]

I have never worked this hard replacing into a game.

I've never replaced in as a vig on day 4 either. :/

It's 2:30 am and I'm not going to get to a Deas iso before the day ends probably. I'll iso him during the night phase.
Aside from the gunsmith inno, what are the reasons to think he's town?

[fferyllt]

It felt like a 4 scum game. I was really hoping this lynch would end it because looking for a 5th scum was going to involve a lot of paranoia.

Thanks, guys! This could have been a much more difficult replace-in without your help catching up!

Thanks, Plessiez! It was a well-run game and an interesting game design.

The scum team had terrible luck. I really felt for them, reading that 3p lylo.

[fferyllt]

btw I was a compulsive even night vig. I had planned to out my full role if I made it to day 5.

[fferyllt]

The setup was really well done to cause huge skepticism about the PRs, given the counterclaims built into it. But, a bunch of town players had towned it up enough to find each other and that held things together. Doesn't always happen that way. Didn't happen that way in this game.

I think one joat having a friendly neighbor shot actually detracted from that. After I joined the game the acceptance of both joats as town plus the acceptance of 2 town kills blew me away, but I put it aside for the game day because the town, who had lived through all the claims were mostly confident SiX was town.

[fferyllt]

I enjoyed my short time in the game. I had originally planned to try a magua style not reading shit approach. the compulsive vig role kinda ruled that out. playing so reliant on isos was interesting.

I'm still surprised town didn't suffer from a bunch of valid but fishy looking counterclaims.

I think if I had replaced into a scum slot it would have looked pretty hopeless.

[fferyllt]

I don't think I would have claimed that kill on day 3. I would have wanted to wait a while to see reactions to the kill when the day started, and after Snork claimed his result on AP would probably have waited until day 4 in hopes of getting a 2nd shot off.

I'm not sure how I would have felt about SiX's claim on day 2 though. Probably the same way - don't counterclaim a town killing role and get at least one shot off.

[fferyllt]

Huh? I didn't counter claim anything. I was the first one to claim 2-shot (Vig + Bodyguard) Jack-of-all-trades.

I'm saying that at that point in the game, I think I would have considered counterclaiming over your vig-kill joat claim, but I'm pretty sure I would have decided to hunker down and get the shot off that night. It's really hard to say because I didn't live that part of the game.

To me, Matt not claiming his kill on day 3 made sense. I think he would have claimed on day 4, because the data was needed then to help figure out the lynch and to hopefully make an attractive night kill target for whatever remained of the scum team.