MICRO 350 JESTER NIGHTLESS GAME OVER

[Psyche]

Uh, hi.

I haven't taken a game seriously from this account in a long time, but I'd like to begin a pattern of solid play starting now. I will now try to sketch out a plan with which we might try to find the jester / scum.

[Psyche]

So the jester has one unreal and two real courses of action available to him:
- A get-lynched-quick scheme where he does things that would normally be considered obvious scumslips and maybe gets lynched
- A diffuse scheme where he just does what he considers scummy but not jestery and hopefully eventually gets lynched
- An extended scheme where he first makes an honest effort to seem like town (which is a more realistic imitation of scum behavior), and then later slips into "scummy" play, if at all

The first is unreal, because it won't work in this setup. Scum have a temporary incentive to "play" jester, but because the jester is set to commit suicide eventually and predictably, that incentive is weak. We can assume that the obvious anti-town wackos are the jester.

The other two are more challenging. The third is definitely the strongest, except with the caveat that its first step may be executed so well that the second won't be executable except in a really caricatured manner. In the end, we just have to always keep in mind that a person's jesterhood cannot be ruled out by evidence of otherwise sound play; every time we're about to lynch someone, we have to ask ourselves, "Is he acting this way on purpose?"

The second is the easiest, and perhaps the most probable strategy being used. By either lurking or being only somewhat obstructive or both, they can attract compromise lynches and win the day. Same question as above.

I had some ideas for detecting jestery behavior, but it might just work as advice for him/her. It's important that we roundly call out all scummy behavior as scummy behavior, even if we do suspect that it's jester behavior. How the player reacts to this calling out is very important for determining their actual role.

Such fun...

[Psyche]

DrP is very probably scum and certainly not the jester.
I think we should lynch him today, not D3 unless we find someone more scummy/safe to deal with.
There's really no point in delaying safe behavior for D3 when we'll probably have good enough reads on everyone that another safe lynch (ex. Xayzeck who is pretty clearly town) will be available.

Nothing DrP has done indicates town, and nothing about the pattern of reactions to his lynch indicates town. There's a lot about him to call scummy. And he's definitely not the jester. What more could you want in a D1 lynch with this setup???

vote Doctor Pepper

[Psyche]

if DrP is scum, it does not matter WHEN we lynch him, as long as we do. so we have no incentive to lynch him NOW over D3. this helps us get rid of option #3 in psyche's post, cuz jester will have to get himself lynched in TWO days instead of three. also, VOTE: shinobi

his play is 100% not jester, and is 80% not town imo.

You're either not thinking this through or you have some antitown agenda. Our incentive in lynching him now is the same as it is on D3: to avoid lynching the jester. All we gain by delaying our lynch is the off-chance of pressuring the jester IF our other two lynches before D4 go well.

D1 and D2, because of the little information we have, are the Days we're most likely to lynch the jester, not D3

There is absolutely no chance of the jester winning as long as we don't play stupidly, as long as we only lynch people who have an obvious survival instinct. Choosing risky lynches over perfectly safe lynches is a very obvious example of what counts as stupid play.

[Psyche]

, VOTE: shinobi

his play is 100% not jester, and is 80% not town imo.

Based on this rationale for voting shinobi, your vote is in the wrong place.

DrP is

actually

100% not jester and much more likely to not be town. If you disagree, why don't you save shinobi for D3 and lynch DrP now?

[Psyche]

lulz "naive"
coarse ratios like '1/9' only matter if you're planning to lynch at random for the next two days
are you, shos?

[Psyche]

i have 3 confident not-jester reads right now and it's only p4 — and that's not even including myself.
You have at least two confident not-jester reads yourself.
How many do you think you will have by D3?

The answer: more than enough.

[Psyche]

you've even admitted yourself that the jester will be soooo obvious come D3

[Psyche]

oh my god

[Psyche]

today is Day 1, sho
i want a safe Day 1 lynch

[Psyche]

The impression is of deliberate opaqueness, which is something I was weighing as a possible strategy before the game.

ActionDan, who are your top 3 scum reads at this point? And please walk me through that thing you said about Xayzeck not being the jester -- I don't understand that but I'd like to.

Also, ZZZX - you seemed to want pressure on Xayzeck in your first post. What have you gotten from the wagon so far? Do you think his reaction was town or scum?

The reaction was pretty lacking which is not alignment indicative usually but scum-xeg usually does it that way so I'm not sure

Psych is giving me jester waves. The perfect plan is being apposed by him because he might see no chance of victory? I am not sure.

I played enough jester games to identify who can't be jester. I just am not as good at finding jesters but psych really gives me the chills

Sure! I'm jester! Now that you think so, start lynching scummy people!

[Psyche]

But D1 is the safest evar. How bout we test some of those you think are not jester? Tell us who they are, and why, perhaps?

xeg, xay, shos, drp and I are all not the jester

[Psyche]

, VOTE: shinobi

his play is 100% not jester, and is 80% not town imo.

Based on this rationale for voting shinobi, your vote is in the wrong place.

DrP is

actually

100% not jester and much more likely to not be town. If you disagree, why don't you save shinobi for D3 and lynch DrP now?

You never answered my question.

[Psyche]

I only have, like, one town read so far.

shos still needs to answer my question
you all still need to vote Doctor Pepper

[Psyche]

unvote

I'm really interested in seeing how the jester behaves in the situation he'll be stuck in on D2, so I'll give on the DrP affair.

There is zero chance that we are lynching shos before D4. None at all. Period. I take back my confident not-jester read.
I can come up with loads of reasons to read Xayzeck as not-jester, and only a few less to read him as town. He's a good lynch for D2 or even today if we don't get better ones.
zzzx is pretty scummy.

Rubicon and AD are the sorts who play apparently protown but are always pretty hard to read. AD's first extended post reads as pretty mechanical in its reasoning, but that might be his deal. I hate having to deal with them.

Shinobi, DrP, Hiraki need to give us more. And hurry the fuck up about it plz.

[Psyche]

woah those reads are terrible

[Psyche]

my god he even reads DrP as a probable jester

[Psyche]

that's not even close to happening

[Psyche]

why

[Psyche]

shos i was going to make you a wiki, too

[Psyche]

hiraki your posts are like reading the output of bad OCR software

shos i was going to make you a wiki, too

OMFG plz I would love you forever and vote whatever you tell me to vote evar in all games

there's like 40-50 games info to compile :/

it's project 84

[Psyche]

Rubicon and AD are the sorts who play apparently protown but are always pretty hard to read. AD's first extended post reads as pretty mechanical in its reasoning, but that might be his deal. I hate having to deal with them.

I wanted to mention that I hate this kind of statement. It

always

freaks me out and pings as a lazy cop-out from even trying to read me/others, which I think you should be able to do.

For one thing, you call our posts 'apparently protown' but don't commit to a town-read on either of us, which either leaves you open to vote both of us if the opportunity presents itself or allows you to slot a buddy in a noncommittal position next to a townie.

For another thing, and on a personal level, it bothers me even more when I can't figure out how the person making a meta argument has the meta they're trying to invoke. As far as I know you have never seen scum-me. Unless it was an alt or something, in which case I feel like you should be able to read me since you've seen both sides.

I'm sorry that you're the sort of person I have trouble reading. It's not personal. It really isn't.

The way you backed down on your DoctorPepper argument was also really sketchy and doesn't seem to fit the mindset of you arguing for a strategy you think is best - if you really believed you were making a pro-town argument, that's a weird way to show it.

By deciding not to lynch Doctor Pepper, the town's in somewhat worse shape. But I'm bored of going on and on about it.
We can win even if we do put the DrP lynch off for later.

Well that's lame.

Hope you find a game that you enjoy more, I guess.

Also, his slot is a town slot. Probably.

Research has suggested that replacing out is in general scummy. And everything about DrP's play so far suggests that he's not a deviation from the norm. DrP is replacing out for one reason: he has irredeemably fucked up.

[Psyche]

I should probably try a little harder?

Rubicon and AD are the sorts who play apparently protown but are always pretty hard to read. AD's first extended post reads as pretty mechanical in its reasoning, but that might be his deal. I hate having to deal with them.

I wanted to mention that I hate this kind of statement. It

always

freaks me out and pings as a lazy cop-out from even trying to read me/others, which I think you should be able to do.

I'm really,

really

sorry that you're the sort of person I have trouble reading. It's not personal. It really isn't. It really,

really

isn't.

For one thing, you call our posts 'apparently protown' but don't commit to a town-read on either of us, which either leaves you open to vote both of us if the opportunity presents itself or allows you to slot a buddy in a noncommittal position next to a townie.

Yes, that is in general what people who announce null reads are doing.

Being protown doesn't necessarily invite a townread, because scum have a pretty strong incentive to do most protown things. Only egging on the lynch of their teammates comes to mind as one of the things they don't, and that's only sometimes. I prefer to look for more valid indicators of townhood, whatever those are.

For another thing, and on a personal level, it bothers me even more when I can't figure out how the person making a meta argument has the meta they're trying to invoke. As far as I know you have never seen scum-me. Unless it was an alt or something, in which case I feel like you should be able to read me since you've seen both sides.

No meta arguments here.

[Psyche]

I...don't see the fuck up?

Uh, he's gonna get lynched before D4.

[Psyche]

Unvote, Vote: Shinobi

I take it back. This isn't jester telling.

gimme some details
i need help making sense of this dude

[Psyche]

oh hey aronis
i'm ~jordan` if you don't know

[Psyche]

Oi

Aronis, please educate these peeps and tell them why we lynch you on D3 and not earlier.

alsoI think jester is within AD/Shinobi by now so I'ma go and

VOTE: psyche

thsi slot talks too much mucus

still no substance

[Psyche]

the slot is scummy and not the jester

[Psyche]

it doesn't matter how stressed the jester is...

[Psyche]

there's no way to practicably test any hypothesis about that

[Psyche]

OF COURSE IT DOES

are you kidding me
do you have ANY FUCKING IDEA how stressed I was D3 in that game when I was jester.

that is my friggin point
you won that game, right?
all that stress didn't win the game for the town, did it??

[Psyche]

there's no way to practicably test any hypothesis about that

This proves that you know I'm right but you're just putting some bullshit in the way in order to fabricate my point.

i have never read a post on this site so simultaneously confident and stupid
if i actually do get lynched, im quoting this in my bah post

[Psyche]

Not Voting (1) - Psyche

Also hey Psyche, what's the deal with this. You unvoting doesn't match what you were saying in the post you unvoted and you seem to have people you want to lynch. so, uh?

i'll vote when i'm damned ready

[Psyche]

Prod Response (my VLA technically ends after 2 days but I can handle those 2 days)


Well

Vote Psych

is the best non-jester lynch so far imo

is it really that easy to play scum these days

[Psyche]

yes asking questions

will

help you seem more legit without having to actually try

[Psyche]

what makes my remark

interesting

, zzzx?

[Psyche]

is that a scumclaim

[Psyche]

OF COURSE IT DOES

are you kidding me
do you have ANY FUCKING IDEA how stressed I was D3 in that game when I was jester.

that is my friggin point
you won that game, right?
all that stress didn't win the game for the town, did it??

I had the chance to manipulate town through 2 days to think that I am the only one who is 100% not jester. everyone was sure that I was town, and we agreed to lynch town to get rid of the jester and THEN hunt scum.

if you keep Aronis for D3, jester will have only 1 lynch to spare, and then he'll go mad, and we won't be attempting to lynch townies, only scum, for D1 and D2.

but aronis is so scummy
so so scummy :(

[Psyche]

hiraki, explain how what you said makes "logical sense"
and why every other great idea that makes logical sense about how scum never comes through
you're a blowhard, like too many scummers on this site
you think you have some insight into how this game works, but you're only a little less clueless than a random noob

[Psyche]

I'd bet my left kidney that what you said is complete bullshit, and would even test it if it were in fact a practicably testable hypothesis. You've never wrestled with the data. You have no way of knowing just how baseless most of the theory that drives your play is. And even when I do flip and prove your little pet theory about my response wrong, you won't change. No one ever does.

[Psyche]

I don't care why you're voting for me.

[Psyche]

I have this condition where I react strongly to terrible on the internet.

[Psyche]

why are you people still voting for me???

[Psyche]

LOOK AT THESE VOTES
JUST LOOK AT THEM

[Psyche]

This is exactly what I'm talking about.

You could be lynching actually solid scumreads and go from there, but nooo you'd rather mislynch until D3 just so the jester will get a little stressed and apparently (from the shos example) still have a good shot at winning.

You're literally the worst, and you'll never change.

[Psyche]

Imagine a middle finger righhht here.

[Psyche]

You guys suck so much.

[Psyche]

hey shos
did all that stress you put on zzzx pay off???