Mini 1602: Game Over

[Oso]

Hello folks, replacing Riabi.

Unless asked a direct question, nothing substantive from me until Neil answers the L-1 wagon.

[Oso]

I do have a question for the folks that are voting him though: How confident are you in your reads?

Forget optimal claimed cop play for the town and all the theory behind what to do with a claimed cop (for a second, not asking you to do it permanently) is he still scum despite the claim?

[Oso]

I'll have a proper post when I get home but I'm a bit eh on

if there should be a cc. I think I'd like them to keep their mouth shut.

...

This, the bold, so much, please don't CC if you are a real cop.

[Oso]

Not much. I'll elaborate as soon as I remember how to do quote tags and such here. I'm a bit rusty.

Short answer, I don't believe him.

[Oso]

Actually, I don't need a whole lot of quote tags.

Oddly enough, if Flames were still in the spot and playing like he had been, I'd feel a whole lot better about the claim. ISO Flames and just look at the whole flow of his posts. It is what I would call 'not quite under the radar' play. Something that both scum and PRs have a tendency to do in my experience. He's definitely participating (not lurking) but not really going out on any limbs in my opinion. Staying right there in the sweet spot where you are not likely to get lynched if town or scum but also not so prominent you are likely to get a eat the NK either.

Upon his entrance, Niel just blows that out of the water. Could be a difference in playstyle I guess, but the whole tone of Neil is just off for a cop in my experience. The post with the softclaim:

Ahem, Tammy you just put me at L-1...

I just realized I was at L-2. Are you that confident I am scum? I would have had a slight scum read myself on Flames, but not more than you or Rack. Especially not enough to put him at L-1. Then again, I'm still on page 6 so that could change.

****If he ran his slot up as scummy as possible and replaced out again****

, I'm going to be fucking furious. This is why he's already blacklisted by several people here. And honestly, depending on my finished conclusion after my read through, if that's what he did, I'm going to call for a mod kill. That's against our town win-condition, and in the end, it fucks the town really badly considering our role.

The bold, that in no way, shape or form is compatible with a cop claim. It is compatible with a town who goes "Aw shit...I screwed up, I'm outa' here" and also with a scum who goes "Aw shit...I screwed up, I'm outa' here" It does not go with a cop. D1 that is a solid claim even if fake. If there is a real cop, no way in hell they CC. So if flames was a cop, he didn't flake out of fear of a lynch.

Niel is scum.

[Oso]

Add on edit

I realize Flames was under heavy pressure when he replaced out so he didn't manage to stay in the 'sweet spot' I mentioned. But the impression I got from his posts was that was where he was trying to stay.

[Oso]

Mala, what if Niel is exactly what he claims? Is chaos still scum?

[Oso]

I can dig that.

Reason I asked though is that you tied chaos' alignment to Neil's if Neil is scum. That post you quoted

Guys we should not believe him. Of course he's going to try and claim a role like that when he's about to be lynched. He knows that it could keep him alive for a while and if the real cop CCs him then scum know who to take out on the first night. I think we should take the risk, lynch him, and figure it out tomorrow.

Look pretty straightforward to me. Chaos is already voting Neil, stating we should not believe the claim and giving some fairly solid reasons why he believes his(Neil's) claim might be false, give a damn good reason why no should counter-claim if they can, then finishes it off by saying he thinks the risk is worth it.

I personally don't see it as on the face of it, those look like pretty good town reasons to go ahead with the lynch. Wondering what you see that I don't especially since the other person who has posted in the thread about this that is still on Neil's wagon is Phok. With just about one of the worst bullshit reasons to stay on a wagon I have ever seen.

Just saw scum try to fakeclaim cop on D1 in my last game in an attempt to "explain their actions", so not buying this

Why single Chaos out and not mention Phok?

[Oso]

EBWOP, my last post is directed at Mala's, not at Tammy's post

[Oso]

...

By the way, there's one thing I don't understand. Many of you are scumreading him without voting for him. Am I the idiot becuase I vote for the one whom I think scum and want to lynch or is there something strange going on?

I'll happily hammer him myself, if Mala doesn't come in and pre-emptively hammer him.

But I would like to hear from Agar and Shadowz, the only two, I think, who were on the Niel wagon pre-claim that haven't posted post claim.

[Oso]

i didn't say immediately after i took a shower. I also kind of expected there to be more posts and didn't really feel like quadrupleposting especially when only one other person had posted so far.

Well, it is a long weekend.

Mala's thrust at Chaos, don't really see that going anywhere. At least not from where I'm standing. I personally don't have any real strong feelings on Chaos either way except to say he is slightly above the dead neutral line for me.

Implosion makes some points I hadn't considered on Shadow. He, like Chaos is pretty much almost neutral to me. Have to look more to see if Implosion might actually be on to something. I have my own thoughts about the Neil wagon but they can wait until until the two prior votes clear up a bit and I have had a chance to look at what Implosion is saying about Shadow there.

One thing that jumped out in that quote wall that I didn't catch yesterday

I don't like the claim.

I've gone through Flames' ISO and saw no crumbs whatsoever

...he knew he was in deep, and while it was RVS he did manage to pick up 4 votes in no time. If he had a PR, one would think that would be a good time to start crumbing. It also reads as a stall tactic - he started posting info, disappeared until what should have been after a prod, claims and says he has to disappear again.

The underlined bold part, that sounds, not really forced, but not really honest either or really valid. Hard to explain. I'll revisit Shadowez tomorrow and see if I can agree with what you posted.

[Oso]

VOTE: Oso

I wanna start the killing and the stabbings here.

His entrance with Neil at L-1 screamed "I don't want to be actually involved in this mess!" His echoing of Tammy's statement to not CC reeked of confidence in picking up a cop tell. (Hey look, Tammy's dead). Riabi was sketch and kinda seemed dodgy.

I'll read implosion and Mala's stuff tomorrow evening, but right now I wanna poke and prod this for a bit because it seems like fruit is here.

Not at all. My subsequent posts after Neil did answer the L-1 shows that I had no problem getting involved. I also had a perfect opportunity to start muddying the waters and attempt to divert his wagon if I had wanted to, before his claim. I was a brand new replacement so I could have easily posted a couple or three quote walls and found something to try and focus attention away from Neil or at least give the thread a second viable target and I don't think anyone would have really assigned an alignment to that. Replacements do that often enough.

And no, don't really want to get into Mafia Theory but yeah, unavoidable here with that thinking. Day 1, Cop claim comes out, Player A is the cop. Don't CC. Even if you die during the night, we have the dead list to give us your counter-claim. I felt that important enough to say regardless of how many other times folks had said it especially since Aneninen posted this derpy nugget (The bold, underlined part).

I have an idea.

@Everyone: if you are counterclaiming Neil, DO IT in your very next post!

If there is no counterclaim, we should assume that Neil's claim is real and disband his wagon. (After all, if his claim is fake we'll find that out soon.) If you've posted anything without counterclaiming start posting your other scumreads as soon as you can.

UNVOTE: – I'm willing to revote him if anyone counterclaims but now I'm scared of a derphammer on Neil.

[Oso]

@Implosion.
It is later in the day than I planned on getting around to it, but here is what I take away from Shadowez in general and in regards to the Neil wagon in particular.

Pre-Niel's claim, I'm leaning that he is unsure town. At least his play is no more scummy than I have seen from many players, myself included, in many other games. Comes across to me a fairly normal D1 townie play.

I indicated before that I didn't like his

Post #432

mainly because of the not finding any crumbs thing. I also thought there might be an attempt at a diversion there, onto Aneninen, except, that is a damn good point he makes. It could still be a diversion onto a townie that chose a stupendously bad moment to change his vote and he is is setting up a mis-lynch for after a Neil scum flip.

But at this point it is fairly obvious, to me at least, Neil is going down. Folks are waiting for the final pre-claim vote on Neil (Agar) to show up and give his thoughts but the conclusion is inevitable, pretty much no matter what Agar says about the claim the lynch is going through, too many of the non voting players have expressed the willingness to vote/hammer Neil.

The point to this, I think he is still scumhunting. Unless something major happens today to change my thoughts, I have no interest in pursuing a Shadowez wagon and/or lynch today.

[Oso]

Prod dodge. Won't be able to get back into the game until tomorrow.

[Oso]

From Agar's #476:

The point is not what you could have done, or what you did eventually. It was your initial entrance. That speaks a lot louder than afterwords when you either had time to say "Oh shit, that was dumb!" or a scumbuddy possibly told you. The point is a town player's first mindset isn't "Oh let me not contribute!" If it is, they're bad.

Nice dichotomy you have going there. A couple of them actually. Putting aside what you think proper entrance play for a replacement is, how exactly would a scumbuddy have told me I was screwing up?

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@Aneninen. Couple of points there I'll go ahead and answer.

Mala tied Chaos being scum with Niel being scum. That question was me wondering if she had anything independent of Niel's alignment to base Chaos' alignment on. Her saying she'd re-evaluate if Niel was the cop, told me she was using an association rather than what she considered solid evidence. I'd still like to know why she thinks they are connected though.

I had made it clear that I would hammer Niel. But I also wanted both Shadowez and Agar post their thoughts before it happened. They were the only two who had been on the wagon pre-claim that hadn't posted their thoughts on the claim after Neil made it. I couldn't guarantee that would happen but I could help make it happen by not voting. I point to Mala's requesting the Hammer a couple of times and the whole mood was leaning lynch Neil. If he had gotten to L-1 again, I was afraid there would be a hammer (not just by Mala, anyone could have decided to drop it). And I was right, Agar's post on the claim, Implosion's vote, Mala's hammer happened all in the space of about an hour. I was on the computer during that time frame and my e-mail notifier told me their had been posts in this thread but I wasn't able to view the topic until after the hammer had fallen. I didn't have a chance to vote after my personal vote conditions had been met.

When you said this, "... Also, I have a feeling that he tries keeping himself "under the radar"...." That is the absolute, 100% correct interpretation of my play so far. I replaced into a slot that was pretty much perceived as a null by the rest of the players as far as I could see. I wanted to keep it that way until the end of D1 if I could. Player at L-1, day nearing it's end. I could have always been randomly nightkilled, no way to help that, but I wanted to to be around for D2. Null players don't get NKed except randomly. They do get scumread though but that is correctable.

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VOTE: phokdapolees

After the dust-up about Tammy's vote, he doesn't do a whole lot. To his credit, his subsequent votes do stay on 2 people he has scumread: Rack and Neil(Flames). But he mentions nothing, as in zilch, about Neil(Flames) that even justifies his suspicion of Neil(Flames) other than Post #270 and that is just his current scum list:

Also, AGar is town, Tammy is meh, Riabi is meh, chaos is town, mala's meh, aneninen is town, implosion is scum (his reads list in 210 has scumreads of pretty much every easy mislynch), I'm obvtown, shaddow is meh, tman's weird, flames is scum (PoE), elias is town, rack is scum

flames is listed as POE, no solid evidence.

He sheeps Tammy onto Neil and does give a follow up post as to the parts he doesn't like but there is no explanation with them. Just 2 naked quotes. Post #329 and a comment on how he too thinks it is weird that Neil didn't know what slot he was replacing into.

Post Neil's cop claim all we get is site Meta from him, not even player meta. I saw this dood do that the other the other day..." sort of thing.

Of all the people that voted Neil, all had some sort of justification for it based on either player meta or based on the game so far even if I don't exactly agree with some of the reasons.

All except Phok.



.

[Oso]

No Rebuttal to my vote of you in #505, phok?

[Oso]

Not sure when you last played but daytalk has become pretty standard fare....

[snip]

But you don't believe that is the case here. Why even bring up daytalk?