Mini 1630: Edgar Allan Poe uPick GAME OVER!


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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:18 am

Post by Bookitty »

I am excited about this player list :)

@Ffery:
We can still talk about our role PMs under rule 4, right? Claiming is not forbidden? Also, rule 2 in the same category should be no talking about ongoing games, not ANY games, right? Otherwise meta can't be used.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #21 (isolation #1) » Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:42 am

Post by Bookitty »

<3 Policy Lynch!

Thank you, Ffery!
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #27 (isolation #2) » Fri Jan 02, 2015 4:57 am

Post by Bookitty »

Faster Than Light wrote:
Is there a sample VT role pm?


Why did you want this, please?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #51 (isolation #3) » Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:23 am

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@PurloinedLetter: Is it the guy who left flowers and alcohol on Poe's grave for all those years?

Otherwise I don't know.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #57 (isolation #4) » Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:57 am

Post by Bookitty »

@Krystal: Can you give a thumbs-up for yes and a thumbs-down for no in response to direct questions? If so, please respond to this. :)
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #120 (isolation #5) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:42 am

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Okay. I'm pretty meh on Lynx aside from a couple of things: Why, if we would regret lynching you, would it be to our advantage to lynch you? Both can't be true. Also, why are you "trying not to give off jester vibes?" Why would that be a thing?

Both vengeful and paranoid seem to be adjectives that could describe characters in Poe imo.

To me, the post restriction is not alignment-indicative and could be true, could be false. Krystal's overall level of contribution, however, might be a better indicator. I realised after I posted my question to her that she can obviously shake her head, so:

@Krystal: Do you have reasons to think we shouldn't be voting Lynx today? If you think we should, please nod. If not, please shake your head at me.

@TellTaleHeart/Cask of Amontillado: In a game that is full of hydras, do you think that Krystal's post restriction (real or faked) is especially distractive or annoying?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #122 (isolation #6) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 3:59 am

Post by Bookitty »

Faster Than Light wrote:
Is there a sample VT role pm?


Why did you want this, Faster than Light?

@Lynx: Do you think there are scum on your wagon? If so, who do you think they are?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #127 (isolation #7) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:45 am

Post by Bookitty »

Faster Than Light wrote:
Bookitty wrote:
Faster Than Light wrote:
Is there a sample VT role pm?


Why did you want this, Faster than Light?

@Lynx: Do you think there are scum on your wagon? If so, who do you think they are?


my faction looked scummy but
i knew I was town so i had to double check


orci's first post reconfirmed me but i had to triple check


Can you explain how you knew you were town? I know how I knew that, and the rest of your explanation makes sense, but I'm wondering if you deduced this in the same way that I did.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #128 (isolation #8) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 4:45 am

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Policy Vote wrote:Okay, so... if you anted to be lynched, why didn't you just ask to be lynched, and claim your negative utility? And why aren't you claiming it now?


I second this comment/suggestion.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #136 (isolation #9) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:06 am

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Faster Than Light wrote:Why nobody comment on purloined letter ghost status??


I don't know what you mean by this.

@LynxKuroneko: This makes less than no sense to me. If you are lynched, no power roles would be used on you at night as far as I can see. Also, asking for people to investigate you would only out those power roles, something scum would want and town would not. So:

1. What is the advantage for town in lynching you, if you have a self-watching ability?
2. What is the advantage for town power roles to investigate you?

I've been debating about talking about this, but there is something in my role PM that indicates that something could happen that could cause something else. Does anyone else know what I am talking about?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #138 (isolation #10) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:21 am

Post by Bookitty »

I guess I should specify (though I doubt anyone here needs it) that if the first event is something caused by a particular power role, do not respond about the question about my role PM. Thanks!
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #140 (isolation #11) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 5:28 am

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I think Faster than Light is probably town too, based on his answers.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #144 (isolation #12) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:12 pm

Post by Bookitty »

I don't want to lynch Lynx. If he's truthful (I think so) then he will be useful whenever he is lynched or nightkilled. If he's lying, then we can safely wait a while to see what happens anyway.

I like copper for town so far.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #146 (isolation #13) » Sat Jan 03, 2015 2:45 pm

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Well, now I feel like a special snowflake. :)

If it's not a general thing included in most PMs, and the responses I've gotten lead me to think it's not, please NO ONE else respond to the question. Thank you!
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #161 (isolation #14) » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:46 am

Post by Bookitty »

Sure, Orci. You haven't been around much, so I'm not sure how I could be talking to you before now!

Yeah, I wasn't really looking at the vote counts other than to check the deadline now and then. I see it now, though.

Lynx already said his power only activates on lynch. I also want to know what it is based on that; if it's useful, then maybe he should be the lynch today. I don't think he's a jester at this point.

I think Krystal was complaining of Cask of Amontillado's lack of substance (@Krystal, is that what you were saying?) but maybe she was saying he needed to shut up. I feel like any direct questioning has been pretty useless so far, but it's also possible she can only talk to or about certain people.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #164 (isolation #15) » Sun Jan 04, 2015 6:54 am

Post by Bookitty »

I'm pretty sure Purloined Letter is town because of these three things, in this order of importance:

1) The ghost status would be crippling for a regular-sized scum team and would prevent them from distributing votes the way I would think they'd want to. If I were essentially a tree-stump scum, I think I would announce my ghostliness immediately (something Letter didn't do) and then try to lead the town without voting by putting suspicions on people without any real risk to myself. Letter didn't do the second half of that either.
2) Not jumping on the Lynx wagon. That is pretty big to me. I am not going to count any of the RVS or OMG a big shiny wagon! Let's ride it! comments against people at this point. That said, I would say that regardless of jester spec, Lynx is REALLY unlikely to be scum. Jumping on the wagon and embracing the jester speculation would be such an easy move for scum.
3) Hydra dissonance. This is the weakest reason, but the fact that the two heads have disagreed on Krystal's post restriction reads town to me.

Just something I was thinking about.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #167 (isolation #16) » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:35 am

Post by Bookitty »

copper223 wrote:@Catastrophe
first to brake off the wagon on a more or less obvious town now and first to jump on the PL claim for town cred.


Can you explain this a bit more? I only see one real post from Catastrophe so far and I don't see what you are seeing.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #184 (isolation #17) » Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:06 am

Post by Bookitty »

Ha! She thinks CofA is talking out of his ass! :) Right?

<3 Krystal :)
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #185 (isolation #18) » Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:06 am

Post by Bookitty »

Sorry, Purloined Letter. I was laughing very hard and typed the wrong thing :)
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #187 (isolation #19) » Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:25 pm

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Okay. I believe you, Lynx.

Consider my vote functionally on you; I don't know exactly how many votes you have at the moment, and I don't want to cut off discussion this early in the day.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #215 (isolation #20) » Tue Jan 06, 2015 2:03 am

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@Lynx: In your view, is it better not to full-claim your power prior to your lynch?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #219 (isolation #21) » Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:01 am

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In my opinion, we have only two real choices regarding Lynx.

We can accept that he's town (I think he's town) and lynch someone scummy. I think it likely Lynx will be the nightkill; if that occurs, Lynx says his after-death actions are lost to us. Still, it gives us a better chance of hitting scum today which might be more critical for winning the game overall. If Lynx is a jester, something I don't believe, this would also be a preferable plan.

We can accept that Lynx is town and lynch him anyway to get the greatest value from his after-death abilities. I lean toward this plan because I trust Lynx both to be town and to have the best idea of how his ability will work.

Still not voting him, but I feel pretty certain I will be.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #224 (isolation #22) » Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:18 am

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Policy Vote wrote:Ah, actually, my plan doesn't work. Never mind.

-Ceph


I think I was thinking along the same lines but then realised timing is everything :(
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #251 (isolation #23) » Fri Jan 09, 2015 3:46 am

Post by Bookitty »

Why we should lynch Lynx:

He has a power he is certain will be useful to us. He can only use it after he's lynched. I'm sure he's town. If he says that's what should happen for the good of town, then I think we should do it. He does NOT have that power if he's nightkilled. (I wish that wasn't already revealed in the thread, but it has been, so the choices are limited.) Scum would have a real motivation for not wanting to lynch him since they can take him out with the nightkill. I think Lynx is town and I think we should trust his judgment.

If we lynch him, we get the benefit of his power. If we don't, I guess he'll be nightkilled and we lose both him and his power. While that might save Policy Lynch, I'm really hopeful PL will survive anyway due to the nature of his claimed role.

My town reads, with reasons:

Lynx. I don't buy the jester theory. Everything he's done fits the scenario he's described.
Purloined Letter, now Tiershift. I explained this in .
Faster than Light. I was SO suspicious about the VT sample role PM, but the explanation fit my own experience and I buy it.
Policy Lynch. I have liked pretty much everything said by Orci and Ceph. That's more than enough for a townread on the hydra.
Copper. I've played with Copper a bit of late and I feel I have a pretty good handle on his playstyle, which I <3. I am pretty sure he's town here.
Brantz. The weakest of my townreads, based almost entirely on . These reads are very close to mine.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #253 (isolation #24) » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:19 am

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I would think starting as a tree stump as scum would be horribly debilitating. But, if I were in that position (a scum tree-stump) I would point out that I was a tree-stump the first chance I could and then try to guide town along various primrose paths to protect my buddies and to push lynches against town. Since my vote wouldn't count, I would make my voice heard and influential.

I know Tiershift can be very persuasive and neither he nor Fakespeare (who I don't know anything about) has taken that tack. Since we can't vote him and he can't vote us anyway, I'm very content to put him in the town column for now.

It is not just the role. It's how the role is being played.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #255 (isolation #25) » Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:37 am

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copper223 wrote:I see the scum motivation for claiming early and persuading people, depending on execution it's a possible good play because town also has an incentive to do it as well, the fact they chose not to doesn't mean they are town.


This could be right. Since we can't do anything about that slot now in any case, though, I'm not going to worry about it right now.

@CaskofAmontillado: What is your read on copper, please?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #262 (isolation #26) » Fri Jan 09, 2015 5:41 am

Post by Bookitty »

TierShift wrote:Have we played before and am I just forgetting?
If so, sorry.


I do not think so, but I have read a game you were in with one of my RL friends. That's what I'm basing my opinion on. I haven't done real meta on you (yet) because I am thinking you are town by play so far.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #264 (isolation #27) » Fri Jan 09, 2015 5:51 am

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Policy Vote wrote:1. Couldn't they have manufactured this pretty easily after getting the sample PM?

2. Also, unrelated, people policy town reading tiershift for role related reasons are silly


1. Maybe, but the reasoning behind asking for a VT role PM made sense to me at the time and converted a "OMG you are scum, aren't you?" to a "Okay, that explains it" for me. I had figured out I was town because "hey, no buddies!" but I also found it confusing at first.

2. Since we can't vote him anyway, I don't really care how people are reading him. I have him as town for now and, if things change, I guess that could change too.

Not lynching Lynx probably saves your life, which I am in favour of. Since I think Lynx is town, though, I'm inclined to want to let him use his role in the way he wants. So I'm a little torn.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #272 (isolation #28) » Fri Jan 09, 2015 12:51 pm

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BRantz wrote:I really don't like that Ghato has basically said he is going to continue being a non contributor until he feels like it.


What I don't like here, specifically, is Ghato's theory discussion in lieu of content contribution. If you're going to make a long post anyway, why not give town something to work with instead of opinion that has little or nothing to do with this specific game?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #307 (isolation #29) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:15 am

Post by Bookitty »

CaskOfAmontillado wrote:Assuming you can communicate after death, which seems to be an ability that some town players have, you use your self-watch tonight. If scum is as afraid of your dead-ability as you think, they will nightkill you, giving you a guilty result that you can communicate to a townie and effectively forcing scum to trade one of them for you, which is a positive outcome for town. If they're not willing to trade, we can always lynch you later for whatever value your death provides.


Lynx has said that his ability does not work if he is NKed. It only works if he is lynched. So your plan will in no way work.

I feel like you didn't even read my posts and just decided to scumread me, since you don't know this most basic fact of the discussions that have taken place. I already talked to Lynx about this. And to others.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #311 (isolation #30) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:29 am

Post by Bookitty »

Ghatokaca wrote:Why not Catastrophe?


I'm not sure, honestly. I get warm and fuzzy feelings from Cat's postings, but I guess I'm waiting for more? I know that Brantz putting Cask at the bottom was one of the key reasons I was developing a townread on him, because I don't think I'd said that in the thread but I was really thinking that Cask was scum when Brantz posted.

I don't really understand Krystal wanting to hear from both sides of a hydra before {reading them? This is a guess}. I usually just read a hydra from whatever side is posting.

@Krystal: Do you think you can read TSO better than tool?

@Copper: Lynx said he wants to be lynched because his power doesn't activate on NK. Only he can read his role PM. Either we trust him or we don't. I want to trust him.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #314 (isolation #31) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:37 am

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It's only the second power that I'm concerned with (if we are making the right assumptions about his powers anyway). It's very unlikely that scum (or town, or anyone) would target him after he's dead imo.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #321 (isolation #32) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:12 am

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I'm looking at a few different scenarios here while trying to sort what I'm thinking. Numbering them to make it easier to comment/criticise:

1. Lynx is town to me, so I'm not considering jester. That can be wrong but I'm sure it's not.
2. If we lynch Lynx, I feel like we're going to lose another of my strong townreads, probably one with a claimed power role. I don't want to lose even one, PR or not.
3. We don't know if we have a doc/protective in the game. THIS IS NOT ASKING FOR A CLAIM. Don't do it. If we do, that could be an argument for not lynching Lynx and trying to keep scum guessing about who to kill and who will be protected.
4. So if we don't lynch Lynx and we trust that there's someone out there who will make the right choice on who to keep safe then we might spook scum into NKing someone else. (I'm perfectly fine with trying to direct scum NKs, but I dinna think they will listen to me :p )
5. For me, lynching Lynx is giving up two townreads for the price of one. I hate this. But I'm still thinking about it, because if Lynx's power is all that, then maybe, maybe it's worth it. I simply don't know. I think scum would want to NK him given the things Lynx has said about his role.
6. So, I think there's no way we don't lose Lynx as a living player. I'm calculating odds on whether I think {the person I believe will be NKed if we lynch Lynx} will be more valuable to us for Day Two.
7. Ghato's plan seems really good to me if it will work. I prefer it.

@Lynx: If Ghato neighbourises you, will you still be able to use your power?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #325 (isolation #33) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 4:46 am

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Okay, I'm confused.

Why neighbourise Lynx if you want to lynch him anyway? If he's lynched, his power will work according to him anyway. So the only reason to neighbourise him would be to ensure he could communicate after being NKed.

I see no point to neighbourising Lynx and lynching him as well. We could just lynch him in that case with no neighbourising needed.

Please explain.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #328 (isolation #34) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 5:17 am

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Okay, to be absolutely clear:

@Lynx: 1. If you are lynched, will you be able to communicate with us even if you are not neighbourised? 2. If you are neighbourised, do you still need to be lynched to use your power on behalf of town?

@copper: You would rather Lynx be neighbourised over being lynched, or regardless?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #329 (isolation #35) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 5:18 am

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Oh. In other news, I think Ghato is town now. I don't see scum proposing this strategy UNLESS Lynx is scum too and I'm convinced that is not the case.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #331 (isolation #36) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 5:38 am

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I think that Ghato's power is redundant if we lynch Lynx. But I'm not sure. THAT is the source of my confusion.

I got that it would be an "after the fact" thing. But if we lynch Lynx, he won't be the nightkill, and the neighbourising action may not be necessary.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #339 (isolation #37) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:20 pm

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@Tiershift: I don't know that I would EXPECT it. Thinking about a neighbouriser, though, my reasoning goes like this:

Assuming that Lynx will be able to communicate with us after he dies if he is lynched (something I was guessing at but do not know for sure), scumGhato wouldn't want to lynch him. Neighbourising him would also not make much sense, since it would just be redundant. Ghato said he was 95 percent sure he knew the role (I don't) and that he thought Lynx was doing it right. There's no way that I see that scum Ghato would say that about town Lynx. I personally find it unlikely that scum Ghato would say that about scum Lynx, and I for sure don't think Lynx is scum.

Ghato's play about the neighbouriser makes no sense from a scum perspective. I think that's regardless of Lynx's alignment, but I already thought Lynx was town, so it's moot anyway.

In short (yeah, I know, too late) Ghato offering to neighbourise Lynxtown doesn't come from scum imo. Lynx asking to be lynched for role related reasons doesn't come from scum either. If both were scum maybe it would be possible but unlikely bad play, but I think it's just impossible since Lynx is town.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #354 (isolation #38) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:06 pm

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TierShift wrote:1. I do not endorse a lynx lynch unless he claims. And then it'd better be worth 2 townies (himself+NK).

2. Also, I've played only once before with you and thought you were scum day 1 but basically shut up about it because of your sig. Let me revisit the game.


1. Since I know who *I* would NK if I were scum, I second this part A LOT.

2. In Epic Mafia Time I wanted Kthxbye dead day one even if I had to stomp him myself because I thought he was aggressively scummy. He OMGUSed me and THAT of course confirmed my obvscum read on him. It turns out he was town. This doesn't feel like that game, but I would prefer to wait a day on this. I do think his claimed power is useful and pro-town, if not incredibly useful and obviously pro-town.

If Ghato is town (something I think) then I think it's okay to go ahead and leave Lynx alive and try for a scum lynch. If Lynx is the NK, then Ghato can neighbourize him and then we have the benefit of knowing what Lynx knows. If he's not the NK, yay, we saved a townie for another day. I disagree with Copper's plan of both neighbourising and lynching Lynx. That seems like the worst of both worlds to me.

Explain how I'm wrong if you think I am, please.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #355 (isolation #39) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:07 pm

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TierShift wrote:
Let's lynch cao!
Do it!


I support this product and/or service. Note that my read may be coloured by OMGUS, though.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #360 (isolation #40) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:26 pm

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TierShift wrote:I hope you did not miss the thng I said about my role pm.


I didn't. I get the impression your role PM, however, was more clear than mine.

I have questions outstanding for Lynx and I'm hoping he'll answer them soon. We have time before deadline and I would like greater clarity on the positives and negatives of:

1. Lynching Lynx today.
2. Not lynching Lynx today and, if he's nightkilled, asking Ghato very nicely to neighbourise him.

I still see no world in which we would both lynch Lynx and ask Ghato to neighbourise him, because of this:

Lynx didn't know Ghato could do that when he asked to be lynched. Lynx said himself (I'm paraphrasing because I am not looking it up) that Ghato could do it if he wanted to talk to Lynx, but didn't seem enthusiastic. So I don't think that talking after death through a neighbour is necessary for it to work. Thus it would make more sense to ME to use it the second way Ghato suggested. That's who I would want to talk to.

I'll repeat the question (not verbatim):

@Lynx: If you are NKed, would being neighbourised allow you to still use your power? Do you still want to be lynched today given Ghato's offer to you?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #363 (isolation #41) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 2:48 pm

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@Tiershift: I don't think I can. It's all very vague; I basically paraphrased my role PM. It's an ability that may be triggered by an undefined event. I don't know what it is, just that it doesn't matter if I'm alive or dead when that event happens. Without knowing what the event is, I can't say if I could make it happen or not.

On the Ghato thing: Well, crap. No, I hadn't thought about that.

@Copper: I don't know. I want Lynx to clarify because I can see these scenarios:

1. We lynch Lynx as he wishes. He uses his power, whatever it is. ??? Profit. Then Ghato uses his power on Lynx and Lynx relays messages or doesn't, but we have him for as long as we have Ghato but with no vote and no special insights into the game. (Scum isn't going to target him once he's dead. I'm pretty certain of this.) Downside here is that we lose two townies guaranteed.

2. We lynch {Scum} and then Lynx is NKed to prevent him using his power. This is good because we lynched scum, but we lost Lynx's power without even knowing what it was beforehand. I don't see how neighbourising him helps in this case.

3. We lynch {Scum} and Lynx is left alive. So we lynch him tomorrow. Well, that's just putting it off a day and we lost some other townie in the meantime. If we lynch scum I'm not going to feel awful though.

4. We lynch {Town that isn't Lynx} and Lynx is nightkilled. We lose LynxPower, we lose two townies.

5. We lynch {Town that isn't Lynx} and one of our other PRs is killed. We still need to lynch Lynx at some point soon to unleash his awesome power, but we are down two townies and don't have that power yet.

If neighbourising doesn't remove the need to lynch Lynx, then let's lynch him and let him use his power now. That's my view after thinking this out. Please, ANYONE, point out where I'm wrong above. I put numbers in so it would be easy to address my mistakes if there are any.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #365 (isolation #42) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:00 pm

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Okay. This is convoluted logic, so please bear with me.

If Ghato is scum, offering to neighbourise Lynx isn't a win for scum. We'll know Lynx's power when he's lynched/NKed unless Kthxbye is the NK. I still hold that scum won't target Lynx after he's dead (nor would town, unless it was Ghato-neighbour) and so the insights we could get based on the role given in the thread wouldn't be compelling. They'd be the same as if I died and you were passing along my insights: Oh, wow, Bookitty thinks we oughta lynch Cat. Well, that's nice. -ignore- *Note: Example for illustration purposes only. I do NOT think we oughta lynch Cat.

So I don't see Ghato-scum making that offer. It gains nothing for scum except the chance to pass along faked input from Lynx who has no more influence than I do. Why bother? Ghato then went on to say who he WOULD neighbourise by preference; I agreed with that assessment and, if Ghato were scum-neighbouriser I would expect him to go that way in the first place.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #367 (isolation #43) » Sat Jan 10, 2015 3:13 pm

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I'm out for tonight, but I will be back bright and early!

Well, early, anyway. :p
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #386 (isolation #44) » Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:13 am

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TierShift wrote:Boo, do you know if the event can be activated by a player's pr or something?


Sadly, I don't. It's extremely vague.

Medea the Alien wrote:Not nearly as townreading of bookitty as I expected to be?


Why were you expecting to townread me?

BRantz wrote:@boo: I have what I would guess to be the exact same wording in my role PM. My abilities may change based on unknown game events as well (also somewhat paraphrased).


So I'm not a special snowflake. I knew it was too good to last. :p

TierShift wrote:Why again is everyone on a 1-man wagon?
There's only 4 days left, let's build ourselves a good coa wagon.


I want answers from Lynx first if at all possible.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #387 (isolation #45) » Sun Jan 11, 2015 2:51 am

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BRantz wrote:Well at the very least you show up when your name gets mentioned. That is good to know.


There is a name for that, but I don't want to say it because I'm afraid of Michael Keaton.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #392 (isolation #46) » Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:57 am

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I checked the post in Upcoming Game Advertisements and yes, no bastard elements. So we can bury the dead horse of jester spec. :)
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #397 (isolation #47) » Sun Jan 11, 2015 8:43 am

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Okay. I'm going to trust in you, Lynx.

Reads list needs to wait for a little, but I'll vote now.

VOTE: LynxKuroneko
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #430 (isolation #48) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:30 am

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Catastrophe wrote:Can somebody who believes this claim please explain why? Because claiming a role that punishes town if you die seems like an awfully convenient claim. It also seems like something town would want to keep hidden as long as possible, because revealing the role means scum have an easy way to prevent town from getting information if they kill you.


I had the same passive town-power in Advance Wars, a game that fferyllt also played and that kthxbye did not. This alone makes me kinda believe it. It would be an awfully big coincidence that kthxbye would claim that particular not-very-common power in this game if it weren't true.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #431 (isolation #49) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:31 am

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@copper: Aren't you voting Lynx? I think the vote count is wrong on that.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #435 (isolation #50) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 1:45 am

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Missed that.

I mainly don't want Medea the Alien and Cask of Amontillado on the wagon, if you're right. I haven't got a third yet.

Ninja'd: Why the vote now, FTL?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #445 (isolation #51) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:18 am

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@Lynx: I would like to see Policy Lynch and Catastrophe on your wagon for sure, please.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #451 (isolation #52) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:34 am

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Policy Vote wrote:Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.


<3
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #453 (isolation #53) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:38 am

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@Cask of Amontillado: What is your current read on copper, please?
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #459 (isolation #54) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:50 am

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Policy Vote wrote:I'll take Mod-Provided Fakeclaims for 800 please, Alex.


Maybe. I hadn't thought about that angle.

I like the list. I prefer Tiershift to vote rather than Lynx self-voting though.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #463 (isolation #55) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 7:59 am

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Yeah, sorry, Tiershift. I do remember.

Lynx, could you be persuaded to self-vote?

I would like an answer from Medea (CABD) as to why they expected to townread me. I don't feel okay about them at this point.

@TTH: Can you explain how your plan is more beneficial for town than the plan already in play, please? I haven't agreed with much of anything you've said so far. Also, what is your current read on copper?
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #467 (isolation #56) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 8:19 am

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Letting Lynx decide also leaves no room for scum interference. Let's let him decide.

Why are you avoiding the question on copper over and over? (If you avoid it this time, that's over and over and over, actually.)
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #479 (isolation #57) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:08 am

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TierShift wrote:I do not approve of following boo's opinion. Please don't, lynx.


I don't actually have an opinion there. I am curious why you said this, though.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #481 (isolation #58) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:23 am

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@Copper: You list a lot of connections there -- can you be more specific? Do you think I could be scum with all those people? Do you think any of those people are scum?

I was going to wait for CaskOfAmontillado to post reads but given the looming deadline I don't think that's a viable strategy. I want this out there before Night anyway.

One thing I really disliked about CofA's posts early on was the forced tone of the attacks on you, Copper. I thought it was interesting when those same forced attacks came at me with just about as much justification. I think CofA is scummy for weak attacks on me that don't even make sense. I think it's weird that you don't think that for what amounts to the same thing. So when we're looking at connections, this is one I want people to notice, please.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #486 (isolation #59) » Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:56 am

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TierShift wrote:It's just that I know that I might turn around on people suspecting each other as is the case now with you and coa. I townread you, but I'd rather not have you influence who's on lynx's wagon. My townread on you is just not as strong as the claim based one on policy. I'd like him and lynx to figure out the list, with lynx having authority.


This is absolutely fair enough. Thanks.
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Post Post #512 (isolation #60) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 1:03 am

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@Mod:
Could we please get a prod on Medea the Alien and Krystal Bald? Thanks so much!
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Post Post #517 (isolation #61) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 3:29 am

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@Medea the Alien: Why were you expecting to townread me, please?
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Post Post #525 (isolation #62) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:00 am

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copper223 wrote:Boo can you link me the OMGUS game with him you mentioned?


Yes.

Epic Mafia Time
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Post Post #535 (isolation #63) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:13 am

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I have Cata as a lot more town than FTL, for what it's worth.
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Post Post #548 (isolation #64) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:36 pm

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By my count, we only need a hammer on Lynx. Everyone on the wagon currently is a townread of mine to one degree or another. I think we're in pretty good shape, actually.

If Krystal comes back, I believe she's been invited to the wagon. It's worth noting that at least two of my townreads won't be on the wagon, but I think that's okay too.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #65) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:52 pm

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Catastrophe wrote:I disagree with FtL, for one, but no-one will get off the wagon because everyone wants to be on it. Thumbs up, guys. Thumbs up.

-TSO


I don't care about being on the wagon. I do think it ought to be up to Lynx, since he's giving up his life for this play.

I would rather you be on the wagon than FtL but it's not up to me.

And @Copper, I never heard such filth back on the farm. Oh, wait, I did. Never mind.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #66) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 4:50 pm

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Given the choice between your play here and CoA's approach of lurk-lurk-lurk unsupported accusations lurk-lurk-lurk random nastiness, I'd prefer yours any day, BRantz.

I would respond to CoA's case on me... but somehow he forgot to make one. He just mentioned a game into which I replaced late as scum and got lynched for my troubles (which obviously shows my extreme acumen and ability) and made general remarks about how "safe" my play has been with no real examples of that.

I still have them as scum. And if TTH is really making the comments sthar indicated in the hydra thread, that should stop for reasons that should be obvious.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #67) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:03 pm

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CaskOfAmontillado wrote:copper223- townlean for being a leader and conciliatory.


Okay, I've been rereading this for about five minutes because I was certain I must be misreading it. Being conciliatory is a towntell? SERIOUSLY?

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Post Post #574 (isolation #68) » Tue Jan 13, 2015 5:44 pm

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CoA:

Make a case on me or quit throwing shade. The accusations you've made of me basically amount to "She's playing like town so obviously she's scum." You've (deliberately?) given me nothing I could address and pointed out no specifics that support your read.

The game CoA (sthar) is referring to can be found here. If you note when I replaced in and the number of interactions that actually occurred between sthar and myself, you'll get a clearer picture of just how baseless his comparison of these two games are and just how shallow his experience with me is.

Thanks.
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Post Post #595 (isolation #69) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:44 am

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Town for sure:

Policy Lynch
LynxKuroneko
Ghatokaca

Probably town:

Catastrophe
Brantz
Tiershift

Meh town:

Krystal Bald
Kthxbye
Copper223

Lean scum (because of dumping a vote and then disappearing):

Faster than Light

Scum for sure:

Cask of Amontillado
Medea the Alien

One reason for copper sliding down my list I can't talk about. The other reason is that he HAS been conciliatory and sort of wishy-washy about CoA while at the same time snapping at Tiershift. Something seems off there.

As for a case on CoA:

He attacks Krystal and threatens them for supposedly faking a post restriction. Apparently both heads are in agreement about this being faked and TTH thinks it means Krystal is scum.

Attacks copper, then distances from that in by claiming they were drunk when they posted it.

Sniping at copper for a while about Krystal's post restriction and Lynx. The arguments about Krystal AND Lynx felt really forced (see , - until and when CoA reiterates their suspicion of Krystal. There's never an explanation of why faking a post restriction in a highly flavoured game is alignment indicative, but that's mainly what they chose to focus on.

In we discover that CoA has a mild townread on Krystal despite the fact that he says two paragraphs earlier: "I don't know you well enough to decide whether you'd do something so horrifically anti-town just to make your role more interesting, and better safe than sorry." He says nothing about Lynx in that post.

This speaks for itself, since Lynx was essentially asking to be lynched and asking us to trust him to use his role correctly:

CaskOfAmontillado wrote:My problem with Boo is exactly the same as why copper's townreading her, minus the meta. Town should be looking at the Lynx claim and saying 'But wouldn't it be better to lynch scum?' Scum are the ones who should be thinking 'That forwards my win condition!' and withholding the vote is a great way to look helpful without actually being such.


I can't help feeling that no matter what I had done, CoA would have found a way to interpret it as scummy. I read it the same way as the sniping at copper. I don't know what that means, though. The conciliatory comment is really bothering me. I thought that copper was town because I thought that CoA was scum; I'm not so sure now.

And yeah, I could go on and on about (she talks about and to Lynx too much and she doesn't have fully developed reads on day one) and she didn't vote town soon enough. CoA criticises me for not giving refined reads at a time when he'd barely given any at all. And then look at for a delightful contrast. Gee, those aren't skeletal reads at all.

I felt that CoA wasn't really paying attention to Lynx at first and trying to figure out what was going on. CoA's attacks on me for deciding to trust Lynx and waiting to vote until I had better reads on people overall is also pinging my scumdar -- if I'd voted as soon as I decided Lynx was town and should be allowed to use his role the way he wanted, that would have been the excuse for CoA.

And ninja'd: I am sorry if you felt I was rude. I think your comment about conciliatory being a towntell is funny. I think your whole behaviour around copper is weird and has been getting weirder as the game progresses. It does not fit with the facts I think I have.
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Post Post #598 (isolation #70) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:46 am

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copper223 wrote:I've been wishy-washy in the sense that my read on CoA has ranged from scum to null, I don't want to write off an asset like TTH (Sthar seems good too) unless I am really convinced they are scum because I've seen the benefits for town she can bring, it's a fair point though. Being conciliatory if that's what I'm doing is not a scumtell for me, I think I was equally open in 1551.

Your objections are valid but the speed with which you changed your read on me from yesterday is a bit worrisome, I still think Boo is likely town and I like the case on CoA you made.


I'm experiencing some paranoia about you; I just bet you can guess why. I asked Cask about their read on you and they ignored it altogether more than once; if they were really reading my posts, I think they would have seen this repeated question. Then they move you to town on their list at a time I find odd.

By my lights, BRantz has produced more readable and relevant content than CoA. Tiershift too, despite his lack of a vote and his loss of a hydra partner. Yet when Tiershift says something mildly negative about Lynx you snapped at him; when CoA does the same to BRantz (and apparently hurts his feelings) that doesn't even merit a blip on your screen. I don't understand the different treatment of these two events, especially when the second seems a lot worse to me.

To the word conciliatory: It's a buzzword. Including it in his townread of you indicates one of a very few things to me. 1) He's going to point back to that and say, "But I said he was conciliatory! Clearly it wasn't a clear read! at some point later 2) He was in a hurry to get his reads out suddenly despite a lack of interest in that throughout the rest of the game (he was "catching up" during the last flurry of postings, remember) or 3) he doesn't understand that conciliatory is a popular catchphrase for scummy. I'm dismissing 3 for now.

I've had the ongoing feeling that CoA is not really reading the game and is just snap-reacting to things without a clear context. I of course see that most clearly in the attacks on me, but I think it's evident in a lot of other things as well.

Can you explain how your read has evolved on CoA? You say it's ranged from scum to null; can you show posts that explain your changing read?
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Post Post #602 (isolation #71) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:47 am

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Okay. I read your ISO, Copper, and I still don't see what you're talking about on the reads shifting. I mean, I see that they do, but not why.

One issue I do have (and Policy Lynch was good enough to remind me of it with something he quoted in at the top this page) is that CoA didn't seem to understand that Lynx was indicating two powers, not just one. This, combined with his lack of content about Lynx early on, argues that CoA wasn't really reading or understanding the claims Lynx was making in the thread while at the SAME time accusing me of that. I have forgotten that Tiershift didn't have a vote, and I admit I had no idea what Lynx was semi-claiming as his power after lynch. It's my attitude, though, that if someone is assigned a role it's theirs to play the way they want to. I've expressed my reservations about it to Lynx and to everyone, but at the end of the day you just trust someone you think is town or you don't.

To me, CoA has been trying to have the best of both worlds:

1. Asking someone to unvote to prevent "some VI to hammer to 'prove that they're town' and annoy the shit out of everyone." Not realising that everyone on the wagon is there by invitation of Lynx already. Arguing that Lynx should choose when Lynx HAS been choosing. How is this not "trying to look town" and trailing the already established and popular opinion?

2. CoA: "I kinda have only two townreads." Then lists Policy Lynch (yes!) and Krystal Bald (meh) as his two townreads. So... Lynx isn't a townread? That's odd. I could be wrong about Ghato, Ceph, but at least I'm willing to give a reads list that doesn't keep more than half the town open as options for lynch.

3. No real comments on the content I gave in the last week. If I'm his primary scumread, I would think he'd have a TON to say about that. Was it ALL safe? Why no comment on those posts?

These two post excerpts are just awful, too:

CaskOfAmontillado wrote:Assuming you can communicate after death, which seems to be an ability that some town players have, you use your self-watch tonight. If scum is as afraid of your dead-ability as you think, they will nightkill you, giving you a guilty result that you can communicate to a townie and effectively forcing scum to trade one of them for you, which is a positive outcome for town. If they're not willing to trade, we can always lynch you later for whatever value your death provides.


This would be optimal for scum.

TellTaleHeart wrote:If Lynx is a self-sensor, I think random is the way to go on determining who should vote him.


This would also be optimal for scum.

It's just pinging my scumdar really dramatically. I'm surely capable of being wrong, but I don't think that I am in this case.
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Post Post #605 (isolation #72) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:03 am

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They are on the same page about me. They are on the same page about Policy. They are giving what amount to null reads on a lot of people that can easily be adjusted (remember, only two town reads -- does that mean everyone else is scum? Certainly it is keeping options open). Sthar says he has only the two townreads but his reads post doesn't bear that out. A lot of town-leans there.

The hydra dissonance tell isn't nearly so effective once I've mentioned it, which is why I usually keep it to myself. It's relatively easy, however, to see faked versions of it and one thing said in sthar's catch-up really pinged for me. TTH isn't posting, so I have to trust in what he says about her.

Where do you see the major dissonance? TTH hasn't posted a reads list that contrasts with sthar's. Do you think it will?
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Post Post #606 (isolation #73) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:10 am

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CaskOfAmontillado wrote:
Bookitty wrote:Okay, I've been rereading this for about five minutes because I was certain I must be misreading it. Being conciliatory is a towntell? SERIOUSLY?

You're townreading copper anyway, why is it relevant?
-TTH


It's relevant to my read of TTH/sthar. I already explained why I was paranoid; throwing in a "town-lean cuz LEEDER and conciliatory" (obviously paraphrased) makes me itchy all over, especially when I JUST said I was wary of a connection between CoA and copper. How is that a read? It's like saying I town-read Tiershift because he's a ghost and scummy. What?

It's also relevant to my read on copper. Copper, you said you understood my paranoia. I'd commented the connection I saw (and this is JUST my subjective read, not provable fact) and thought to myself:

CoA attacked copper and then sort of pulled back. That looks like distancing. And then they did the same thing to me... is this trying to muddy the waters? They're pushing my lynch; when I flip town, are they going to use that to clear copper? Um, NO, I'm going to call out that connection now!

I could be wrong. But that's my opinion.

You seriously think I didn't address , copper? Can you explain this more?
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Post Post #608 (isolation #74) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:16 am

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@Copper: Sorry, I fail at reading (at work, distracted, still no excuse). I do see that you only said the first was unanswered now.
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Post Post #611 (isolation #75) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:30 am

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Copper, you played with me in that newbie game. Do you remember my starting position about reading people? You argued with me about it, so you should.

I've given reasons for pretty much every one of my townreads. I've invited people to attack my logic and show me where I'm wrong. The nature of how I think about the game from the very start makes it easier for ME to figure out things. I can be wrong, sure, but I'm going to tell you if I think someone is town and why just as much as I would tell you why someone is scummy.

I would like to think that my friends here love me regardless of my alignment or theirs. I certainly don't hate people for drawing scum. I'm sure they didn't mean to. I think Lynx was instrumental in making a big town circle far more effectively than I could ever have done.

@Copper: I'm not going to answer the last question you asked Tiershift. But you could if you read his ISO.
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Post Post #612 (isolation #76) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:37 am

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@Mod:
Could we please have Faster than Light prodded?

(Not that it did any good for Krystal Bald, though :( )
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Post Post #614 (isolation #77) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:43 am

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Okay, let's clarify something.

I'm town. That doesn't make me right. I am not asking ANYONE to sheep me on my town reads because (as you can see from FTL sliding to lean scum and you sliding to lesser town) my reads change over time (or instantly, sometimes).

It seems to me that you're correlating being wrong with being scum and being right with being town. And this is an argument I have already had enough of, thank you very much.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #78) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:58 am

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I've given reasons for all of my townreads, I think. Maybe not Policy Lynch (I honestly can't recall). If you thought it was spurious logic, you should have said so at the time. Certainly others haven't been shy to do so.

Who are the candidates you think I'm pushing into the town circle, please?

And why would all the people you listed be town if I were town, if you're not assuming all my reads are right if I'm town?

Faulty logic is faulty.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #79) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:18 am

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copper223 wrote:I would have a stronger read on Ghato, Tier and BRantz not because I'd sheep you (where is that implied?), but because that would confirm some things about their play that would make me personally read them as town, just the fact CoA is very likely scum in this scenario is a big enough reason to townread them.


Okay. Here's where this is breaking down for me.

I think CoA is scum. I've not been shy about that read. You are sort of on the fence.

If I am lynched and flip town (or if I'm proven town by some other method) then would that make CoA scummier for you?

It's another version of being wrong=being scum. It's not good logic there. If you don't think they're scum by play then their being wrong shouldn't be a big factor, should it?
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Post Post #627 (isolation #80) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:57 am

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Me (I know my alignment)

Policy Lynch (duh)

Ghatokaca (I have generally liked posts and think the offer to neighbourise you wouldn't be optimal for scum)

Catastrophe ( and pretty much everything after)

Kthxbye (I buy the claim)

copper (still a townread, though not as strong. Bonus points for arguing their corner, though.)

BRantz (least certain here)
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Post Post #628 (isolation #81) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 5:58 am

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Note: I want FTL off the wagon. He dropped that vote and dropped out of sight so no one could tell him to leave (my interpretation). I think that is TERRIBLY scummy :(
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Post Post #631 (isolation #82) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 6:18 am

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copper223 wrote:That is simplistic, it depends on how you are being wrong and how you usually play as town, TTH pushing mostly bad logic on 2 players like that makes her very likely scum because when she is town even her cases on town make sense when you don't know a player's alignment, I've used that as scum for instance, and she is pretty damn accurate to boot, so yes if you flip town I'd lynch CoA in a heartbeat.


This is fair enough. I have minimal meta of either player and no time to do a proper dive right now.
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Post Post #638 (isolation #83) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:02 am

Post by Bookitty »

is emblematic of my problem with your slot, TTH. If you look at this post, it covers from post 304 to post 494. That's a lot of territory for one little post to cover. It doesn't give me confidence that you're actually reading this game, and here's why.

You don't comment on tons of things that happened. You have presented theories on how Policy Lynch should use his power (I think all three of them DEFINITELY can be trusted to know what to do) and on how we should choose who goes on the wagon (finally deciding to agree that the plan ALREADY in place was okay with you). At every step, it feels like you're two steps behind everyone else, all the while insisting that you are way ahead of everyone else.

CaskOfAmontillado wrote:aside: I reread lynx and his ability is actually a self-voyeur. He used the word 'watcher,' hence my confusion. There is now zero reason not to lynch him.


I'd like to know what you meant by that, please?

CaskOfAmontillado wrote:From a quick look at the ISO, the priority system looks like most of the energy is devoted to appearing town for the sake of appearing town and confronting threats.


From my perspective, a "quick look at the ISO" is all you've actually done throughout this game.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #84) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:05 am

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LynxKuroneko wrote:We've got a day left, right? Everyone suggest 7 (SEVEN) players to be on my wagon, starting with most town-read. Doesn't have to be a paragraph explanation for each. Simple summation will do. This doesn't apply to Krystal obviously, because they aren't interested in playing much. I'll make a final decision from there. Over. Yay, forcing players to provide input and put themselves out there for the good of mankind! (Or for this town at least.)


Also, please don't ignore this, Cask of Amontillado.
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Post Post #642 (isolation #85) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 8:23 am

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copper223 wrote:@CoA
I know for a fact you are wrong sometimes, it's the quality of the cases I am questioning. If it was caused by a time constraint it should be easy to correct.


I'm taking back some of the paranoia about you. I <3 this.
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Post Post #646 (isolation #86) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:22 am

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CaskOfAmontillado wrote:Incidentally, my chat with TTH is a lot of screaming about losing to you. It's why I'm letting her needle you to get a read: she's much more motivated and theoretically practiced at it than I am.


If I misinterpreted this, I apologise and echo Policy Lynch's request that you tell us more about this, then.
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Post Post #650 (isolation #87) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:30 pm

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I really don't want FTL on the wagon. I <3 Varsoon and all, but I think that slapping down a vote and then basically abandoning the thread is so scummy.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #88) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:45 pm

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@Varsoon:
It would help if you said you were going V/LA or put one of those cool banners up if you're going to be away. <3

I don't get the policy lynch thing nor do I care since I don't believe in policy lynches. To quote Ferris Bueller's Day Off, sooner or later everyone goes to the zoo. There isn't one of us who hasn't fucked up sometime. I guarantee it.

Could you give the list of seven people (in order of towniness) that you want on Lynx's wagon? He's taking a poll to get a consensus.

Thanks!
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Post Post #661 (isolation #89) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:08 pm

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@Varsoon:
Yes, that works for me anyway. Thanks!

Cask also tried that on with copper but gave up pretty early on. I hadn't connected the policy lynch thing to that, but when I do a reread (probably not before Night, sadly) I'll have a look at that specifically.
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Post Post #667 (isolation #90) » Wed Jan 14, 2015 3:23 pm

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@Varsoon:


Yeah, um, I'm going to have to go ahead and sort of disagree with you there

Beetlejuice tells can be really useful imo, but it's fairly specific. It has to be:

1. Someone who is scummy in themselves
2. Someone who is not posting at all for a while, usually after getting a townread or after a few votes have fallen off them on a wagon that's stalling
3. Someone who posts almost immediately after someone makes a case or accusation (not just a mention) of them when 1 and 2 are both true

I have found it almost foolproof in those cases. Those cases are, however, pretty rare.
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Post Post #677 (isolation #91) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:18 am

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@Cask: I have a busy schedule as well, and I have nothing but empathy for that. I restrict my games to three at a time at most to ensure that I can keep up. This means I miss out on games and people I enjoy, but it's necessary so that I can give fair attention to the games I do join. I was assuming that a hydra would have a convenient backup who could fill in and carry the slot if the other head was busy; apparently that's not the case for you two. I can't control your schedule or the number of games you play, so using that as an excuse just feels like an AtE more than a reason.

It is not that you were catching up in long posts. It's that you were ignoring large chunks of the game while making autocratic statements about how things ought to be done. Most of your attacks on me have to do with the very early game or with comments I made directly to or about you. You note that I am one of the most prolific posters but you ignore a huge swath of my posts even though to you I am zee uberscum. That doesn't make sense to me. Why just give a quick glance of my ISO when I'm a scumread for you? (That's to TTH, by the way, but I feel it also applies to Sthar.) When I read someone as scum, I read and reread their posts to try to figure out how to support my case or to figure out if I'm wrong. I'm getting zero of that from you. Time constraints could be an issue, but again, I can't control that on your behalf. Only you can.

You devoted a lot of time to trying to figure out Krystal's post restriction. Now you say it's not alignment indicative, so why spend so much of your limited time to dwell on something you don't think is alignment indicative anyway?

I would ask you to do a search for the word conciliatory and look for the posts that come up. By my own search it was used as a reason for finding someone scummy in the majority of Mafia Games results that come up. I think other players in this game can also back that up.

I agree with the general sentiment that this can wait til Tomorrow. I stand by my reads list, but Varsoon's explanation of his absence does make me feel somewhat better.
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Post Post #681 (isolation #92) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:40 am

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copper223 wrote:@Boo
Claiming CoA is scummy because they don't have Lynx as a townread is a bit of an oversell and a stretch don't you think? If CoA is scum why are their teammates bussing them or not defending them?


Um, what? I was pointing out that CoA only had two townreads and then gave a reads list that fairly bristled with townreads, just not committed ones. It's inconsistent. I think I gave plenty of reasons why I thought CoA was scum; the inconsistency was the issue there, not the "omg not reading Lynx as town."

As to the second question, do you think CoA is a likely lynch today, Copper? Why would you expect that in the current situation?
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Post Post #683 (isolation #93) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:22 am

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There's no risk to not townreading Lynx since he will flip today anyway. I think he will flip town. I see no way in which Lynx asking to be lynched as scum results in profit for a scumteam. I don't see how a scumteam would need to reposition themselves after a town flip of someone they thought was scum.

I didn't think CoA was saying they thought Lynx was scum, anyway. I thought he was not giving a read or giving a null read on Lynx. That doesn't correlate with the various suggestions given regarding who should be on the wagon and how we should deal with that, though.

If you don't believe that Lynx is town, then any information gained from the claimed sensor power will be suspect anyway. So why does it matter how we arrange the wagons? If you do think he's town, then I could understand.

Given that Lynx will flip (and if kthxbye is truthful, we'll see the entire flip) I don't know why someone would feel compelled to leave them off their townlist anyway. If we're wrong, we'll know it really soon. But it's the implications of that read that bother me, not the read itself.

It's like the arguments about TierShift's alignment. If I'm wrong and he's scum, we STILL cannot vote him. If and when we can, things may have changed dramatically and my reads might have shifted significantly. I'm thinking he's town now and I actually like that he's going to look at the ISOs again, so my read hasn't shifted at this point.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #685 (isolation #94) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:00 am

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The comment about conftown came AFTER my questions to Cask, if you note. I can't process information I don't have. I was attempting to explain my thought process. It's early, maybe I wasn't perfectly clear, but I don't think it's fair to ask me to psychically detect that Cask doesn't consider a conftown person to be a firm townread.

As to the rest of that, CoA has set up a situation where 1. he's either confbiased beyond all belief (she isn't acting like she did in this game she was scum, so she must be ... SCUM!) or 2. he's ensured a one-v-one tomorrow. Since I'm town, I am not really fussed, but if he IS town you've already said you would consider him scum for doing what he's done so far. This doesn't sit well with me. I can see this scenario:

If CoA is town and legitimately believes the things he's saying about me (I have trouble with this, but I guess it could be so) then if I am the nightkill, you have already said you'll think he's scum. This hinges his alignment specifically on mine. I know I'm town; scum will know I'm town and would love just such an opportunity to link lynches of townies together. It's not like saying "if Player A flips scum, then Player B is his buddy." It's saying "If Player A flips town, then Player B is scummy for being wrong."

This bothers me quite a bit.

Do you think apart from the push on me that CoA is scummy? If so, why?
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Post Post #687 (isolation #95) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:19 am

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copper223 wrote:
So now you are worried about the thing that made you less paranoid about me?


I don't know what you're talking about here. The thing that made me less paranoid about you was you asking CoA to make an actual case on me, something he's declined to do.
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Post Post #690 (isolation #96) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 5:59 am

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Thanks, Lynx! It was great playing with you :)

@Copper: I'm being paranoid. I know it. But if you start suggesting that CoA is town, then that scenario is bound to occur to me. Already Tiershift has made that claim and you've hinted at it.

I'll try to line out my logic as clearly as I can:

Bad logic is bad logic. You know your alignment and I know mine. You think that CoA made a bad and illogical push on you early on, but you don't regard that to be as alignment-indicative as his push on me. I'm the opposite. I KNOW my alignment so I know his push is wrong and illogical. Your case isn't based on YOU, it's based on me.

If his logic is wrong in your case, then I would think you would reference that far more than his logic in my case. After all, you can't be sure of my alignment. I can't be sure of yours.

If it's bad logic, it's bad logic. If you think that's alignment indicative, then you (specifically you, Copper) should have a point of reference in your own alignment that would make you certain it was bad logic. I don't see why you'd need to make that contingent on my alignment. If CoA is town, as you are suggesting may be the case, then I don't see why my death would be more compelling evidence than your own knowledge of your alignment in roughly the same circumstance.

Please ask if any part of this is not clear.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #97) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:04 am

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Catastrophe wrote:droppin the hamma like I dropped yo mamma


This is a scumclaim. Only scum would drop my mamma.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #98) » Sun Jan 18, 2015 3:52 pm

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I continue to support a Cask lynch. I'm disappointed that Policy Lynch didn't use his power, but I still think Cask is the most likely scum off the wagon.

VOTE: Cask of Amontillado

I'm very tired but I will check in tomorrow early.
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Post Post #790 (isolation #99) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:02 am

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I'm going to call a Copper on the wagon and Cask-Faster than Light off the wagon scumteam. I'm sure I'm not 100 percent right, but I want that pointed out since they all three jumped on my wagon. Since I'm town, my flip will verify this. Copper is ESPECIALLY suspect here.

@Copper: Why are you ignoring the events of yesterday and Policy Lynch's final words?

Just because Cask didn't perform the kill doesn't make him town. It's common practice to have a less suspected member of the scumteam perform the kill.

@Mod: Is your wording meant to indicate that there is more than one scum on the wagon? You said one initially and then amended it to "at least one." The role PM you gave Lynx indicated that it would tell EXACTLY how many scum were on his wagon. Was this flavour? If you cannot answer, please say so.


@Tiershift: Whatever could have happened that could have triggered another power did not for me, anyway. I guess it was another event. Like I said, mine was vague and I didn't do anything last night.
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Post Post #791 (isolation #100) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:23 am

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@Faster than Light: I have a host of questions for you.

1. Why did you think that a failed vig shot made Cask for certain scum?
2. Why would the fact that Brantz jailkept Cask last night negate that read?
3. Did you consider bulletproof when consulting with Metal Sonic?
4. Why did you say that it was a guilty, more or less?

@Ghato: Can you ask Lynx to tell me why it was I never lynched him in that game we were in together and then pass on his reply? Thanks!
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Post Post #792 (isolation #101) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:47 am

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fferyllt wrote:One, at least one! There are at least one non-Morbid betrayer involved in my demise!


I've seen a lot of speculation here, but no one has provided information direct from the mod or has indicated that they've even asked her. If they were really concerned about it, why wouldn't they have asked her in thread or via PM?

Why the focus on speculation rather than on finding out the truth?

The whole wringing hands and speculating seems like scum theater to me. Why not just ask?
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Post Post #795 (isolation #102) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:09 am

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TierShift wrote:Brantz is town, unless coa is scum. I don't believe coa is scum, so brantz is town.


Can you walk me through this, please? I'm with you on Brantz is town. How would CoA being scum make Brantz scum, though?
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Post Post #796 (isolation #103) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:11 am

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TierShift wrote:Because the unspecified game event was very positive (gaining a vote, probably), I tried to convince others to make it happen. And now it did!


Your role PM said it was a positive thing, or you assumed it?
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Post Post #798 (isolation #104) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:18 am

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TierShift wrote:Okay. I've decided to respond, because I have a same text in my role PM and I think you are town.
I know more or less what the thing is that is going to be caused by the action and I strongly advise for you to do anything you can to make the 'something that could happen' happen.


I asked because of this. My own role PM is really vague and whatever it is that might happen hasn't happened yet. I thought you were saying you KNEW what would happen. Now you're saying you assumed it.

Just thinking about it.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #105) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:39 am

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Bookitty
Kthxbye
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Okay. I know I'm town, so pending Fferyllt's response, there are either one or two scum in Kthxbye, copper, Ghato and Cat.

Krystal Bald
Tiershift
Brantz
Faster than light
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado

Tiershift, if you're town and you think that both CoA and Brantz are town, that narrows it down to one or two scum in KB, FTL and Medea the Alien.

Here's how I see the claimed events of the night (correct me if I'm wrong).

FTL sends a vig shot at Cask that doesn't work.
Brantz claims a jailkeep on Cask.

What happens in thread happens in a different order:

FTL claims a guilty on CoA.

I voted CoA.

CoA says FTL is a role cop, says there's a scum power role on the wagon that didn't get sensored. Says he has an even-night action.

Actually, UNVOTE: . I was for some reason thinking that CoA had used the power last night and it had failed because of Brantz jailkeep; I don't want to lynch a claimed investigative today.

Copper jumps on CoA's theory (without any sign of wanting to check with Ffery, same with CoA) and agrees that we should be pushing people on the Lynx wagon. Bad bad bad.

EBWOP: No, Copper, I'm saying your progression here is pretty scummy. Nothing happened for me overnight to change my reads. Why are yours all shiny and different now?

Further EBWOP: Why are you assuming that there are two? We don't have any confirmation either way yet. Why is that the more likely case barring input from the Mod?
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Post Post #805 (isolation #106) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:57 am

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One issue I see with leaving me alive today is this:

CoA has claimed even night investigator. If he is not nightkilled, that would be pretty indicative that he's scum. However, if I'm alive I suspect I'll be the target for his investigation, which would be a waste as I'm town. I'm not ascetic nor yet superpowered in some way to block sensors.

There was a nightkill last night. FTL's claim that he tried to shoot CoA and failed makes sense given Brantz's claim of a jailkeep. I was thinking CoA's failure to comment on an investigation was incriminating; since it's even night, though, I don't think that now. So either FTL and Brantz are on a scumteam together or they are both town. I think they are both town. Looking at it like that, it's:

Krystal Bald
Tiershift
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado

Off the wagon. By role, I would say there are reduced chances of KB and Tiershift. (BTW, Copper, what is the scum motivation for KB saying she wasn't sure Lynx was town?) For me that makes Medea the only possible lynch off the wagon. CoA should in no way be the lynch today because if he's truthful, he's dead tonight or he's going to have information.

On the wagon:

Kthxbye
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

I still don't think Kthxbye is scum. His power turns out to be legit; while that doesn't make him town, it does make him truthful.

I have a question in to Ghato and I would like an answer to it to verify his power. I'm not giving him a pass, but I'm waiting there.

For me that leaves one or two scum in Cat/Copper. I would vote Copper over Cat right now. Waiting for more information.

If people don't believe me, then it's better I be lynched now and CoA at least have a chance to use his claimed power. I voted him before he claimed and I am just now having a chance to put some of these pieces together.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #107) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:59 am

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Bookitty wrote:I continue to support a Cask lynch. I'm disappointed that Policy Lynch didn't use his power, but I still think Cask is the most likely scum off the wagon.

VOTE: Cask of Amontillado

I'm very tired but I will check in tomorrow early.


Also, that was my sole post last night before heading to bed. It was right after FTL's claim of guilty. Painting that as scummy because I didn't wall is pretty shady.
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Post Post #809 (isolation #108) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:04 am

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copper223 wrote:If you are town get off the OMGUS, it was shady and I am not even the first to mention it.


No. You weren't. Do you think that makes it better?
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Post Post #813 (isolation #109) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:10 am

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So posting briefly when I was tired and voting my TOP scumread at the time because of what appeared to be a scum investigation on him was shady objectively?

O RLY?
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Post Post #815 (isolation #110) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:20 am

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What I've derived:

Either FTL and Brantz are scum together or neither is scum. FTL claiming a vig on CoA makes little sense for scum or SK (why draw the attention?) and Brantz providing the helpful explanation for that failure doesn't make sense either unless they were both scum together and playing very poorly. I'm not assuming that, especially since the failure of the vig shot wouldn't make sense without the corresponding jailkeep.

The even-night investigation puts CoA off the table for today. It doesn't clear him, but it does mean he's not the lynch for today. If he's truthful, he's likely dead tonight. This is one reason I think it might be better to lynch me today. Whatever my amazing power that hasn't manifested yet, I need to be off the table for the investigation. Otherwise, this happens:

1. Town-COA claims an innocent on me and lives, making him a huge target for lynching if he isn't the nightkill.
2. Scum-COA claims a guilty on me, you lynch me and then you trade another townie at night for lynching scum-COA the next day.
3. Town-COA is the nightkill and I'm lynched tomorrow anyway.

So I have to recant my FTL scumread, because thinking about it more deeply, he can't be scum with the people I said. I don't know on CoA. I do know I prefer my lynch to his today.
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Post Post #816 (isolation #111) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:21 am

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1. above assumes I would be the nightkill. I don't know if it's as incriminating for COA if it's someone else, though.
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Post Post #817 (isolation #112) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:23 am

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copper223 wrote:Yes, why didn't you wait to see what FTL had on them?

We just finished Hope Plus one and guess what my two teammates did when I counterclaimed Acryon, they both immediately followed me on the lynch like two fools (could have kicked them), sounds familiar?


Do you think my one vote was going to turn the tide on lynching COA?

I don't see how your second comment is in any way analogous to this situation. Please explain further.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #113) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:42 am

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If you really believe that there are two scum on the wagon, then:

Bookitty
Kthxbye
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Is your lynch pool. Two of those five are scum by this theory. If you're on this list and you are town, you should be coming up with your two most likely and probably a third. If it's certain that two are there, that's better odds than voting off the wagon. I don't personally think it's certain either way, but as I said, I prefer my lynch to CoA's today anyway.

EBWOP: Copper, you yourself said there were plenty of reasons to find CoA scummy that didn't have to do with me. I verified that with you yesterday, remember? So why are you putting my whole case to OMGUS now when that's not what happened? Sure, I could be wrong, but I had reasons. Was your whole suspicion on COA yesterday OMGUS?

No, pushing a crap case on someone is not solely the province of scum (Regfan proved that) but it's more likely to come from scum than town. That said, I could be wrong about him based on a claimed role.

The speed is irrelevant. I was going to sleep, checked the thread and posted. I couldn't post later because I was asleep, shockingly enough.
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Post Post #821 (isolation #114) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:05 am

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If the speed of my vote on CoA was alignment indicative in your opinion, what about the speed of your vote on me?

Explain, please, and also explain why the Hope Plus One game is relevant to what is going on here?

One reason I was suspicious yesterday is that Sthar was commenting that TTH was yelling about you in the hydra thread. Yet you were a strong townread for them by the end of yesterday. I became progressively more suspicious of you based on your scumplay in that game; the reverse seemed to happen for them after that flip in that game. Obviously I couldn't talk about it, and I tried to warn gently about that when Sthar posted what he did about TTH's comments. If I was wrong, I'm sorry, but as someone who HAS been warned for obliquely mentioning another game, I wanted to prevent that happening in this one.

If you are town, I don't see how you come to the CoA is practically conftown conclusion here. Yeah, he's not the lynch for today. That doesn't make him conftown. He could be lying about an investigative role and setting up a lynch for tomorrow. Tomorrow is soon enough to worry about that, though. Why are you resetting reads and conclusions based on CoA-town? Do you KNOW he's town?
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Post Post #824 (isolation #115) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:22 am

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@COA: Fair enough. That makes your shift on copper even MORE inexplicable given the timing, though. Can you explain it?
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Post Post #825 (isolation #116) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:29 am

Post by Bookitty »

Also:

BRantz wrote:@boo: I have what I would guess to be the exact same wording in my role PM. My abilities may change based on unknown game events as well (also somewhat paraphrased).


@Tiershift: He did.
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Post Post #829 (isolation #117) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 5:52 am

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@COA: You're reading that to mean two, though. It might mean that; I'm not discounting it. If Ghato confirms that he got the same answer from Ffery, then I'll go ahead with that assumption. It's all very odd to me anyway because she says "One" first and then amends it. One is, of course, at least one. To me, that means one of a few things:

There's one and Ffery is deliberately being obscure for whatever reason.
There are two and one is an {ascetic, investigation-proof scum, something I haven't heard of}

We're all assuming there are three scum but we don't even know that for sure.

I'm curious about copper's "town circle" theory. Since Policy Lynch was my number one town and it looks like FTL and Brantz are also town, I think it boils down to suspicion of Tiershift and Ghato as people I supposedly infiltrated into the town circle, right?

If there is an investigation-proof townie on the Lynx wagon (ascetic) I think they should probably claim. PLEASE don't claim, though, until someone else backs this up. I am not sure of the consequences of this at the moment, but I think it's one explanation if Ghato backs up what copper has claimed about Ffery's response.
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Post Post #833 (isolation #118) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:04 am

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@Cat: So did Ghato. I myself asked in thread. Copper hadn't indicated even that they'd asked at the point they sheeped COA's invisible scum on the sensor theory. Copper has said he already got a response, though. Have you?

I don't know if COA has asked.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #119) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:21 am

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copper223 wrote:a clear attempt to hide the facts


Here's my issue with it. Saying "at least one" also means one. To ME it looked like an attempt to inspire town paranoia about a potentially game-breaking use of Lynx's power. *I* do not know how many scum are on the wagon. It did seem like something scum would seize on to try to skew the results, but I didn't think about it more than that.

I haven't played a game modded by Ffery before, but I will say from my experience of her town play that she's more than sharp enough to throw in that wording to confuse the results. The fact that she's confirming that this was a deliberate choice of wording could mean:

1. That she deliberately worded it that way to make the results less definitive (though I would think that was sort of scum-sided and I wouldn't like it)
2. That she was being absolutely truthful and telling the town the results weren't definitive regardless of Lynx's role PM (though I would think that was sort of town-sided, role-revelatory and I wouldn't like that either)
3. It's just the way she worded it for flavour and now she's stuck trying to explain it without confirming or denying any of the theories floated in the thread

I want to hear from Ghato and Cat (and maybe I'll send my own PM too) to see what she says, but I don't like 1 or 2 for the reasons stated.
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Post Post #837 (isolation #120) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:28 am

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Catastrophe wrote:Also, when did Ghato ask?


No idea. I looked again and I don't see any evidence for this. It's possible I confused you with Ghato, but I don't know why I thought Ghato had sent a PM too.
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Post Post #839 (isolation #121) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:39 am

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2 reveals that there is a non-Morbid role that is immune to investigations. That's role-revelatory in a way I would not think that a Mod would be. If 2 is true, then the Mod has essentially confirmed one of the roles or abilities of a non-Morbid member without a flip. How is that not town-sided?
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Post Post #841 (isolation #122) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:41 am

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fferyllt wrote:One, at least one! There are at least one
non-Morbid betrayer
involved in my demise!


Reading is fundamental.
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Post Post #844 (isolation #123) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:45 am

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Okay, your whole point is that there are two scum on the wagon because OMG Ffery said "at least one."

What is your point now? That there is a townie that can't be scanned there and that's why she said it?

If there is a second scum who can't be scanned, 2 is town-sided. If you're now arguing that this is not the case, why were you sheeping COA on his second unsensorable scum on the wagon theory?
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Post Post #846 (isolation #124) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 6:58 am

Post by Bookitty »

copper223 wrote:how do you word it?


You don't. If there's a scum role that is immune to the sensor, they're immune. When I have investigated people who were immune to investigations, I got a "no result" (which could have been said outright) or an innocent. The point of being immune to investigations is that you are immune. Hinting around about the particulars of a scum role is town-sided on the part of the Mod. I don't think she would do that.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #125) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:04 am

Post by Bookitty »

CaskOfAmontillado wrote:Off the wagon include: Faster Than Light, CaskOfAmontillado, Krystal Bald, Medea the Alien, TierShift, BRantz

Due to role related claims, I'm eliminating FTL, TierShift, and BRantz.

Between Krystal Bald and Medea the Alien I think Medea is definitely a lot scummier.


I agree with this more or less. On the wagon is:

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Kthxbye
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

I can eliminate myself (and any other town can eliminate themselves). For role reasons, I'm thinking kthxbye is town (his power is very town-sided, as Varsoon could probably attest) and waiting on info from Ghato on the question I asked of Lynx.

For me it's the same two-way split on the other side: Copper/Catastrophe. I'm not liking copper (I'm sure that's obvious) and if there WERE two scum on this side, that's a slam-dunk.

I want my answer from Ghato about the question I asked Lynx before I'm going to commit to this, though.
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Post Post #850 (isolation #126) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:14 am

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One = at least one.

That can be completely accurate without giving away any information about a scum role.

What is happening now is that people are assuming that there is a scum role that is immune to sensors. This effectively flips the table. If there IS such a role, it completely negates the value of that role by making it obvious to everyone after the fact. If you don't see that as town-sided, I don't know what you are thinking.

EBWOP: I don't have a clue, Copper. I have a PM in to Ffery that is a little more specific and I am hoping to have an answer in the thread or at least in my inbox.

I don't like that you are playing both sides against the middle. Either it's a non-Morbid (and Ffery's own words CONFIRM that there is at least one non-Morbid on the lynch) or it's null either way. You can't have it both ways.

Is Cat your buddy? I hadn't been thinking that. I still think 3 is the most likely scenario.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #127) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:26 am

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I don't know, Copper.

You were wrong about the non-Morbid comment. Correct? I don't know why you said it.

If you think that there are two scum (non-Morbid) on the wagon, as you apparently do, then why would you make this comment?

copper223 wrote:It does not say it's non morbid, that's an assumption we make because a morbid should not have joined that lynch if he were unscannable.


Why argue that there is only one in this statement when you think there are two? I mean, THAT part of Ffery's post was really clear. There was at least one non-Morbid. If you're basing your whole support for this theory on Ffery's wording, then why would you bring up the possibility of a Morbid on the lynch when her wording is pretty explicitly against that?

It's like you're trying to find a reason there aren't two scum on this wagon; that makes no sense given your stated beliefs.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #128) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:34 am

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To be as plain as I can:

Getting into setup, so bear with me.

Being unable to be detected by the sensor is a pro-scum power if it exists.
Essentially telling us that such a scum (non-Morbid) exists by saying "at least one" would negate the utility of that power.
That would take power away from scum.
Thus it is town-sided.
If Ffery essentially just told us that scum had this power, it's useless. It's actually more beneficial to town, since the wagon is a smaller pool than the off-wagon pool.
You're assuming that she did.
If she did, the ability of that scum was rendered useless.

Town-sided, see?
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Post Post #861 (isolation #129) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:47 am

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I am saying that one is the same as at least one so she wouldn't be inaccurate even if this theory is not right. Like, if you ask me if I have any beers, and I say "at least one," I wouldn't be lying if there was just one lonely Corona in my fridge.

Assuming that I have two is on you, not me. I was accurate.

If the scum power is not to show up on the sensor but for it to be heavily implied that there's an unscannable, then it's useless in that regard.
It might be useful in another regard (and this indicates COA-town, by the way, if there is an unscannable non-Morbid) to give "no result" on an investigation. That would make me think scum for sure, though, given the results of the sensor.


If you remember nothing else, PLEASE remember the bolded part.
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Post Post #864 (isolation #130) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:52 am

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CaskOfAmontillado wrote:Unless you'd like to don your tin-foil hat and argue there's a third party on the lynch wagon, what's the problem you have with this Bookitty?


I have explained this here:

Bookitty wrote:1. That she deliberately worded it that way to make the results less definitive (though I would think that was sort of scum-sided and I wouldn't like it)
2. That she was being absolutely truthful and telling the town the results weren't definitive regardless of Lynx's role PM (though I would think that was sort of town-sided, role-revelatory and I wouldn't like that either)
3. It's just the way she worded it for flavour and now she's stuck trying to explain it without confirming or denying any of the theories floated in the thread


and here:

Bookitty wrote:Being unable to be detected by the sensor is a pro-scum power if it exists.
Essentially telling us that such a scum (non-Morbid) exists by saying "at least one" would negate the utility of that power.
That would take power away from scum.
Thus it is town-sided.
If Ffery essentially just told us that scum had this power, it's useless. It's actually more beneficial to town, since the wagon is a smaller pool than the off-wagon pool.
You're assuming that she did.
If she did, the ability of that scum was rendered useless.


I don't know if I'm right. If there are two scum on the wagon, then you're town for sure, COA, because otherwise Ffery just stripped an ability from scum due to her wording. I'm trying to work out if I think you're town for sure anyway by claim, but this is very difficult :(
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Post Post #865 (isolation #131) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:55 am

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Catastrophe wrote:Couldn't it have been Lynx that was the non-scannable one?


No. The wording was a "non-Morbid betrayer". There is at least one "non-Morbid betrayer" on the lynch. They can't possibly be Morbid. Lynx was Morbid.
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Post Post #871 (isolation #132) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:02 am

Post by Bookitty »

I'm not unscannable nor immune to investigations, for the record. (I say this in case Kthxbye gets killed; it might help narrow things down after my flip. I don't expect anyone to take my word for it.)

Let's assume for a moment that you and copper are right and there is unscannable {something} on the lynch wagon. I quoted this before:

fferyllt wrote:One, at least one! There are at least one non-Morbid betrayer involved in my demise!


Morbid are the town. Non-Morbid are the non-town. It CANNOT be an unscannable townie. It just can't, unless you're going to assume everything Ffery said here was a lie.
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Post Post #878 (isolation #133) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:43 am

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Okay. @Copper:

You parsed the "at least one" thing very carefully. But if you are going to say "at least one" non-morbid on the lynch, then that indicates that one and perhaps more than one non-Morbid is on the lynch. Third parties aren't interesting to me right now, only Morbid town and non-Morbid. For purposes of this discussion, we can even assume four scum if one is third party. That would put it at two and two, something we don't know not to be true.

What I can say is that if there is a third party with a nightly killing role, they must have targeted COA by the claims we have. If they don't have a killing role, I'm inclined not even to care about them at this point. I think this discussion of third parties is pretty useless, honestly.

I empathise with Kthxbye. :(

@Cat: If a townie was unscannable and that wasn't revealed to them in this game, I'd regard it as pretty bastard given the nature of Lynx's role. This isn't a bastard game, so I think that's an unlikely scenario.
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Post Post #881 (isolation #134) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:55 am

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But you can't interpret mod language for me, Copper. That's my point.

We know what Lynx's role PM says. If there's an immune-to-investigation role out there, then his role PM is a lie. It's inaccurate. It's assuring Lynx that there isn't a role that there actually is. That's far worse than giving an ambiguous flip on a sensor.

Ffery has already said her results were accurate. One, at least one. Either the role PM was inaccurate or it was an exact result of one.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #135) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 8:56 am

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It would be bastard, copper, because it would make Lynx's role PM a lie. An unscannable player makes Lynx's role PM inaccurate.

We're talking about wording here. Go read his role PM. There's no ambiguity there. If Ffery deliberately inserted ambiguity into the sensor-flip, then why the hell wouldn't she do it there as well?
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Post Post #887 (isolation #136) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:01 am

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fferyllt wrote:Welcome! You are The Black Cat! You are one of the Morbid.

You have the following abilities ~

While Alive:

- Your vote and your wits.
- You are a self-voyeur. After each night, you will learn all (if any) actions that targeted you, but not who performed the actions.

While Dead:
- If you are lynched, the number of scum who voted you will be revealed in your cardflip.


Lynx's role PM for those who don't want to search back through.

Note it doesn't say "may be revealed." If the ambiguity is intended and there are two scum on Lynx's wagon, then Lynx's role PM was inaccurate and misleading.
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Post Post #889 (isolation #137) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:05 am

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Okay, Copper: Explain to me the point of making the reveal ambiguous when the Role PM is not?

Why would you design a role that essentially undermines the sensor role and then tell everyone about it by being deliberately ambiguous in your wording of the flip? How does that scumrole make sense? How does it even help scum?

I already said I think I may be the lynch for today. If CoA lives through the night and if he is town, at least he won't be wasting what may be his only investigative shot. At a minimum it would preserve more useful powers for town.
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Post Post #891 (isolation #138) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:26 am

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Okay. Let me line out my own thought process for you on this:

You're assuming two scum on the wagon (you were, at least. Perhaps this has changed) because of Ffery's wording. Ffery's wording is ambiguous, perhaps deliberately so.

So say I'm Scum A. I know I'm unscannable, so I get on the wagon. Then Ffery says something that makes everyone know that I'm on the wagon. That means that now I'm spotted (remember, two out of four for any townie, 50 percent. GOOD odds.) and I'm in a very small pool of people to hide in. One out of five is okay, but two out of five?

Scum killed Policy Lynch last night (there's another possible theory, but I find it a little farfetched). I wish that the jailkeep had gone on him, but that wasn't my call. They had full access to the thread and Ffery's remarks and they didn't change the kill over to the larger pool. If there were two scum-scum on that wagon, don't you think they would have? It would have been easier to hide in a larger group as two scum, but that's not what they did.

If I were unscannable scum and Ffery posted that, I would have FOR SURE noticed it and tried to optimise my chances of hiding in the groups through the nightkill choice. That didn't happen

It has nothing to do with opposing roles and everything to do with wording and how Ffery put things and how that affects scum behaviour and the value of their role abilities in this game. If you're going to out the role ability as soon as the sensor is used, it's essentially the same as saying it up front. We couldn't have analysed it prior to the flip anyway.
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Post Post #893 (isolation #139) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:58 am

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To my knowledge there are more votes on me than on Medea. (I haven't checked.)

The other pool is actually much smaller thanks to Brantz and FTL, though. CoA is off the table completely. If CoA were scum, I think he'd be pushing like mad to try to get the votes over here instead of on the off-wagon crew. He's not doing that, so I'm actually leaning town on him by play (yeah, I was surprised too). It's irrelevant regardless because we are not lynching a claimed town investigative role.

They have KB, Medea and Tiershift. I'm still thinking Tiershift is town and COA agrees, so consider that for a moment. That's one out of two from my perspective and I'm not even on that side of the equation.

For me, the possibles on our side are Ghato, catastrophe and you. I don't read Kthxbye as scum AND he claimed a role that has been proven to be true. Could he be scum with that role? Sure, but it would be a really horribly anti-scum role to have. More info ONLY benefits town.

So my lynchable pool is this: {Medea the Alien, Krystal Bald, copper, Ghato, catastrophe}. I'm waiting for Ghato to respond to my question that I asked him to ask of Lynx. That could take a while, but since Lynx said he wanted to be neighbourised and he was, I am assuming he will be forthcoming with the answer at some point soon.

If you think I'm scum (and pretty much your whole push today has been that) AND you think there are two scum on the wagon, you're narrowing it down pretty far for town, so I'm great with being lynched. I do think the Medea lynch offers greater opportunities for town in narrowing down a smaller group since I think there are two scum on THAT side, but I think either way it's narrowed down pretty far, especially given that CoA will likely be dead or have an investigation to give. (yeah, I am thinking he's town now. I kind of hate myself.)
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Post Post #896 (isolation #140) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:05 am

Post by Bookitty »

@tool: Kthx claimed a role I have had previously and that I know that Ffery has seen. While he is alive, the entire role PM is flipped for dead people, not just alignment and rolename.

We've seen that happen twice now. That's why his role (but not his alignment) is confirmed.

It's a pretty anti-scum power to have if Kthx was scum, though.

@Varsoon: No worries there. But I might be the best lynch for today. I'm still trying to figure out the pros and cons of me vs. Medea.
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Post Post #899 (isolation #141) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:15 am

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Catastrophe wrote:The role could have been given to him as a fakeclaim; I don't buy that his role is real just because fferyllt has used it before.

1. Is the full role PM not what we would normally get in a UPick game where lots of people have multiple PRs complete with flavor? I kind of thought we would normally get that.

2. And I see the loss of role info upon flips as more anti-town than anti-scum. Scum loses the knowledge of what PRs have been killed; town loses the ability to know whether scum is claiming the role of a dead player.


1. I don't know. In previous U-Picks I didn't get that. Kthxbye claimed it before any flips, so there is no way he could have known it would be the case at that point if it was a fakeclaim. It would be an odd fakeclaim.

2. Please rephrase. I think you're saying the same thing as me while disagreeing with me. This confuses me.
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Post Post #900 (isolation #142) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:17 am

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copper223 wrote:From my pov you are forwarding scum agenda, that's why I think you may be scum, some of the things you brought up also make very little sense and in some posts it looks like you are arguing a position you have to keep rather than one you know to be true, but if I had to go on gut or past experience with Boo I might still say town, I don't know if you play similarly as scum and if I can make that call based on that.


Can you clarify how I'm forwarding a scum agenda, please?
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Post Post #905 (isolation #143) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:32 am

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I think that's not a provable assertion either way. I also think that bringing up third party is just needless -- if you think there are two scum on the wagon, why talk about third party?

Here's why third-party discussion is SO meaningless:

We know Policy Lynch was killed last night.
We know Brantz jailkept CoA (verified by FTL's announced failed vig).
To believe there is a third-party killing role, you have to believe either they killed Policy Lynch too (which seems unlikely, since I think it was obvious he would be the nightkill as the most universally read town) or that they targeted CoA, who was a primary scumread of most people and would have been a perceived easy lynch for today imo.
If third party killed Policy Lynch and scum targeted CoA, CoA is town. I find this unlikely, but I guess it's possible.
If third party targeted CoA and scum killed Policy Lynch, that would be third party following the expressed town will. That would be odd.

I think it's way more likely that there is no third party killing role. If they're not killers, they aren't the concern for today imo. So why hedge about it and go into the whole non-Morbid thing when for our purposes non-Morbid pretty much has to be scum-scum, not third party?

@Tool: We lose the pro-town power that Kthx has if he's dead. Anti-scum = pro-town. I think Kthx's power makes more sense for town than scum. I don't understand what you are saying at all.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #144) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:37 am

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Bookitty wrote:If third party killed Policy Lynch and scum targeted CoA, CoA is town. I find this unlikely, but I guess it's possible.


For clarity: I think it's likely that CoA is town. I find it unlikely that scum would take out CoA by preference.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #145) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 10:44 am

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@tool: We agree. I don't know why you think otherwise. I said I thought Kthxbye was likely town because his role was anti-scum, ergo, pro-town, and that it would be a negative utility role for scum.

I don't know how I could have been more clear.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #146) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:09 pm

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Catastrophe wrote:losing role flips would be bad for scum I assert that it is far more detrimental to town. Yes, it's anti-scum. It's way more anti-town. Therefore I don't agree with the argument that his role makes him town based on the assumption that it's an anti-scum role.


Okay. Kthxbye dies, we lose this role. We don't lose the role flips unless he dies. If he's scum, then we lynched scum and I am not going to cry over losing the role PMs. If he's nightkilled (what I think is most likely) he's not going to be the primary target tonight anyway imo, so unless you're suggesting that he's the lynch for today, I don't understand your logic at all here.

It's possible that he was given a scumrole that punishes town for lynching him. I just don't think it's the most likely situation. I don't understand your reasoning that "losing the role PMs hurts town more, thus it's a scum role." By the same logic, any pro-town role could be considered as anti-town because it's going to hurt town when it's gone.
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Post Post #925 (isolation #147) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 12:59 pm

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Okay. I've been on Copper's case (and vice versa) all day and even I don't think that is a slip. I think that's a hypothetical.

Unless someone wants to step up and tell me that I'm wrong and that the scum or third party faction is called Euforic.

If we lynch someone and they come up Euforic, though, copper is going to have some 'splaining to do.
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Post Post #927 (isolation #148) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:01 pm

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copper223 wrote:Only if that is true with banana as well. QQ


Sure. Why not?
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Post Post #937 (isolation #149) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:12 pm

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Faster Than Light wrote:It didn't read as a joke to me at all.


I don't think it was a joke. I think it was a hypothetical.

Substitute in "Carefree," "Giddy" or "Lighthearted." It's a placeholder (in my opinion) for an anti-Morbid faction.

I refuse to believe that there's any way a Copper of any alignment would use the actual name of a scum or third party group in arguing with me. I don't see a world in which that ever happens.

MY comment about "having some splaining to do" was an "I Love Lucy" reference and was, in fact, a joke.
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Post Post #939 (isolation #150) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:19 pm

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I dunno, TierShift. It's not the kind of mistake I would ever expect Copper-scum to make. It's virtually insta-lynch with just one scum flip.

I could be wrong, but I really do not think that I am.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #151) » Mon Jan 19, 2015 1:25 pm

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Anyway, I'm good with the Madea lynch. Waiting for Ghato to respond to my question for Lynx. Waiting for Ghato to do just about anything, actually.

I might be back later to check the thread but I don't promise that. It's not as though I didn't post enough today. :facepalm:

@Copper: I personally am sure enough that you wouldn't do that that if there WAS a Euphoric group in the game, I would consider that you were conftown. If there's a Euforic, though, as you spelled it, I would have to admit defeat and vote you.
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Post Post #957 (isolation #152) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:03 am

Post by Bookitty »

Krystal did in fact lose her vote to tell us this, as will verify.

I trust her.

Only one person is voting you, Kthx. But by all means, take your time.
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Post Post #959 (isolation #153) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:33 am

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Probably about Roderick and his dislike of noise. They lived together if I recall correctly.

I'm sorry I thought you were scum, CoA (both sthar and TTH). I don't think that now.
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Post Post #962 (isolation #154) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:37 am

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TierShift wrote:Thinking about leaving kthx alive as confirmed scum for his after death ability which is horrendous for town.


No. It's not that bad. In the game in which I had that power, I tried to sacrifice myself by baiting the nightkill to save my mason buddy who had a much more valuable power. It's a pro-town power, but we'll be fine without it.

I think Kthx is the lynch for today.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #155) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 3:35 am

Post by Bookitty »

Here are my reads given Krystal Bald's post (and thank you so much, Krystal, it sucks that you can't vote, but this information is SO helpful):

On the wagon, towniest to scummiest:

Bookitty
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe
KthxbyeSCUM

Off the wagon, towniest to scummiest:

Krystal BaldTOWN
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Cask of AmontilladoCONFIRMABLE
Tiershift
Medea the Alien

Reasons available on request for placement, town status or anything else.
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Post Post #969 (isolation #156) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:38 am

Post by Bookitty »

Okay. I want to clarify something about why Catastrophe is on the bottom here.

I was considering that kthxbye's power when ALIVE was that he allowed town to see full role PM flips. That's how my power worked in that previous game.

Krystal has let us know that Kthx's power when alive was actually a strongman kill ability. His ability when DEAD is that he takes away the ability of town to see full role PM flips. That is a pro-scum power for sure and postulates that the natural state of this game is to see the full role PM and that his death alters that natural state.

Because I was thinking of it in the opposite way, I didn't understand Catastrophe making the comments he did about it being an anti-town power. This, to me, seems a little bit too knowing about how the power worked. I'm sure the scumteam shared info about the roles they were dealt. Cat was looking at it in a way that I don't think a single other person was, and it turned out to be correct.

If this is correct, though, copper will have been right and I will have been wrong about the distribution of the 2-1 scum split. This would be very irritating.

In any case, though, I think Cat is the most likely scum that isn't Kthx on the wagon side.
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Post Post #970 (isolation #157) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:48 am

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Catastrophe wrote:On the second thing: You're saying it's an anti-scum power. While I agree that depriving scum of information hurts them, I think it hurts town more. If we lose roleflips upon death, scum will later be able to get away with fakeclaiming things. If a player gets NK'ed or lynched without fully claiming, scum can later claim that role and town would be none the wiser that scum is claiming the role of a dead person.



Catastrophe wrote:We only partially agree. You say it's anti-scum, and while I agree that losing role flips would be bad for scum I assert that it is far more detrimental to town. Yes, it's anti-scum. It's way more anti-town. Therefore I don't agree with the argument that his role makes him town based on the assumption that it's an anti-scum role.

As a matter of fact, scum having this PR could help explain why Kthx claimed when he did -- as scum, he would know he wasn't in trouble of being NK'ed, and forgot that from a townie's point of view claiming would put him in danger.

To be entirely clear: I am not saying that I necessarily see Kthx as scum. I'm saying that Boo's reasoning here doesn't make sense to me. As a matter of fact I'm starting to believe a theory that might exclude the possibility that Kthx is scum. I want to get more coordinated with TSO before I talk about it.


These quotes only make sense if you view Kthxbye's power as an active one that he uses after his death. However:

Kthxbye wrote:I'm The Conqueror Worm. I am of the Morbid (as if I'd claim anything else). I enable full card flips. Upon my death, only character's and their alignment will be flipped. Not much better than VT and if ya'll think keeping town PR's from scum is worth it, lynch me.


Kthxbye claimed that power as a passive one that exists only while he is alive.

Catastrophe's view that it is an anti-town role depends on the fact (yes, now known fact) that it is, in fact, an active anti-town role. Town-Catastrophe couldn't have known that. Scum Cat, however, would know it quite well.
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Post Post #972 (isolation #158) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:51 am

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There just isn't any way town-Cat knows that Kthxbye deprives us of role PMs rather than enables them, but every part of his argument with me was all about that. The difference in perspective was confusing the heck out of me.

Now that we know that it's true, we know he's scum.

And that makes two on the Lynx wagon, so I bow my head in shame for having been wrong about that.
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Post Post #974 (isolation #159) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:03 am

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Thanks, copper :) <3
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Post Post #984 (isolation #160) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:36 am

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@Cata: There is such a thing as an ability that activates upon your death. In this case it would be in the nature of a vengeful, except instead of targeting a player it targets a natural ability of the entire town.

Passive ability while alive is how I was reading it. You were clearly reading it as a punitive pro-scum measure when he dies, which would make it anti-town.

Which is definitely what you argued in those quotes I posted. It's not consistent what Kthxbye said, anyway. It's not consistent with what anyone said except you.

I think your confusion about the role and your sniping back and forth with kthxbye was feigned. You thought you understood it a lot better than me when you started arguing with me about it yesterday.
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Post Post #985 (isolation #161) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:36 am

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Ninja'd by copper, but I agree completely with him.
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Post Post #987 (isolation #162) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:38 am

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Why did you think it was an anti-town role, Cat?

Take your time. Explain.
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Post Post #988 (isolation #163) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:39 am

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Also:

@Medea: Take your time and get well. I think you're going to have a little time to recuperate.
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Post Post #990 (isolation #164) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:44 am

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Catastrophe wrote:You're running around in a circle, copper.

The role does one thing when he's alive and another when he's dead. You can look at it from any angle and that fact will be, and always has been, true. What you're saying right now is basically "If it's something he has when he's alive, it's pro-town. If it's something he has when he's dead, it's pro-scum."

It's a role that functions regardless of his actions whether he's alive or dead, so what you're saying makes no sense. It's like saying A=B, B=C and A=C, but when you look at A it looks pro-town and when you look at C it looks pro-scum.


Also, this is not correct.

If I say, "Copper, if you let me play on your PS4, I'll give you a cupcake every day," that's a positive interaction. Pro-copper, pro-me. Even pro-cupcake!

If I say, "Copper, if you don't let me play on your PS4, I'll take away your cupcakes," that's me being a total jerk. Negative interaction. Only pro-me. Scummy.

If Kthxbye was giving us this ability while he was alive, that's pro-town. If he was taking an ability we already had away from us if he died, that's pro-scum. You were arguing it was the second scenario, something no one else had argued or even mentioned.

The second scenario turns out to be the case. Only you knew that. Kthxbye didn't say it. So why did you think about it like that, especially if you were so terribly confused?
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Post Post #994 (isolation #165) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 5:50 am

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Catastrophe wrote:Your dichotomy is a misrepresentation of what was being said. It's not "If you let me play on your PS4 I'll give you a cupcake," It was (and always was, and obviously was), "Hey copper, I brought some cupcakes over and when I leave I'm taking them with me."


You didn't think that. I can prove it.

Catastrophe wrote:The role could have been given to him as a fakeclaim; I don't buy that his role is real just because fferyllt has used it before.

Is the full role PM not what we would normally get in a UPick game where lots of people have multiple PRs complete with flavor? I kind of thought we would normally get that.


And I see the loss of role info upon flips as more anti-town than anti-scum. Scum loses the knowledge of what PRs have been killed; town loses the ability to know whether scum is claiming the role of a dead player.


You clearly didn't think Kthxbye was the reason we had role PM info in the first place.

So that's not true.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
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Post Post #996 (isolation #166) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:05 am

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No, my argument is and remains that you were looking at Kthxbye's claim as an anti-town claim. There's only one set of circumstances in which it's anti-town like you were saying even in the most recent quote I listed from you, in which you said:

"And I see the loss of role info upon flips as more anti-town than anti-scum. Scum loses the knowledge of what PRs have been killed; town loses the ability to know whether scum is claiming the role of a dead player."

Everyone else was seeing it as pro-town. You see it as anti-town. You even argued with me prior to Krystal's awesome reveal about how it was anti-town. When it turns out to BE anti-town, you are caught with too much info.

In you said:

"It was (and always was, and obviously was), "Hey copper, I brought some cupcakes over and when I leave I'm taking them with me.""

Always was. Obviously was. Except that's not what you thought, is it? I think I proved that with your own words.

You're caught, Catastrophe. I'm not judging, I'm just saying.
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #167) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:42 am

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I'm cool with putting a pin in the discussion. I feel like you are dancing around the points I'm making by answering things I haven't even asked, so I'm just as happy to have others read over the quotes I provided and your reactions and make their own decisions.

I still think we ought to lynch Kthxbye first, fwiw.
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #168) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:46 am

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I'm glad you are town, copper.
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Post Post #1008 (isolation #169) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:35 am

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Think about Policy Lynch's power (which he didn't use). A loveriser is essentially a vig because they choose someone to die along with the lynch or nightkill.

I don't find the argument that Krystal had to get rid of kthxbye to be compelling because she 1) lost her vote to do it, which is verifiable and has been verified, and 2) why not go after a more powerful role, if you're going to kamikaze anyway?

Not buying that.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1012 (isolation #170) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:56 am

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Krystal Bald wrote:*Gives a thumbs-up.*
*Points at Faster Than Light, Policy Lynch, Catastrophe, BRantz.*

*Gives a thumbs-forty-five-degrees.*
*Points at CaskOfAmontillado, copper223.*

*Gives a thumbs-negative-forty-five-degrees.*
*Points at Medea the Alien, LynxKuroneko, Ghatokaca, Tiershift, Bookitty.*

*Gives a thumbs-down.*
*Points at Kthxbye.*


There's where she indicated a scumread on you, kthxbye, for the record.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #171) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:22 am

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I prefer to lynch you today and then, if you flip scum, I will push for Cata's lynch. (So will copper, I believe, so THAT's happening no matter what.)

Kthxbye wrote:At the very worst, you lynch a town that is mute and voteless and lynch the shit out of me tomorrow.


If you were town, from your perspective this wouldn't be a possible outcome. I don't know what that means exactly, but it's not something that you should think possible. I don't know why you'd present it as an option given that you were willing to go one for one before.

If you flip town, we'll lynch Krystal. How's that?

EBWOP: Wow, you caught your own scumslip before I could. Nice :)
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Post Post #1021 (isolation #172) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:40 am

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Logically, if you believe that Krystal is scum, you have to believe that your power role was so terrifyingly awful to scum that they would be willing to give up a member of their team to take you out. Worse yet, that member of the team would lose their vote for the rest of the game just to take you out. Even WORSE, they would verify a part of your role while adding on another part to make you look bad.

I've had that role. Trust me. Scum wouldn't care about it enough to do what you're suggesting.

I want to lynch you first. I'm only waiting for a vote count to make sure I'm not hammering and cutting off discussion before everyone has had a chance to speak.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1023 (isolation #173) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:45 am

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Krystal doesn't count, as she said she wouldn't. There's a vote count right after her post and FTL is the only one on there.

VOTE: Kthxbye
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Post Post #1032 (isolation #174) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 8:56 am

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Catastrophe wrote:Bookitty: Lay out your fucking case and stop arguing words with tool. That really fucking annoys me. He's town. We're town. tool is both correct enough and smart enough to kick your fucking ass in a war of words, and with the layers of bullshit and condescension in your words you clearly feel you can win, so either continue being a coward or stand up. Thanks.


Did you read the discussion? I HAVE made my case.

It depends on a kthxbye scum flip, though, so I'm waiting to see.

I'm not being condescending. I don't regard drawing scum as a moral failing nor yet a mental one. I'm saying, I think you're scum, here's why. I laid it out. You can like it or not, but you can't argue that I'm being a coward when I laid out my case from front to back right in the thread.

If kthxbye isn't scum, then my case falls apart completely. Then you can point and laugh, I guess. But if you can kick my ass in a war of words, please do so. Don't just talk about how you can.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1036 (isolation #175) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:03 am

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@Cat:

Bookitty wrote:Okay. I want to clarify something about why Catastrophe is on the bottom here.

I was considering that kthxbye's power when ALIVE was that he allowed town to see full role PM flips. That's how my power worked in that previous game.

Krystal has let us know that Kthx's power when alive was actually a strongman kill ability. His ability when DEAD is that he takes away the ability of town to see full role PM flips. That is a pro-scum power for sure and postulates that the natural state of this game is to see the full role PM and that his death alters that natural state.

Because I was thinking of it in the opposite way, I didn't understand Catastrophe making the comments he did about it being an anti-town power. This, to me, seems a little bit too knowing about how the power worked. I'm sure the scumteam shared info about the roles they were dealt. Cat was looking at it in a way that I don't think a single other person was, and it turned out to be correct.

If this is correct, though, copper will have been right and I will have been wrong about the distribution of the 2-1 scum split. This would be very irritating.

In any case, though, I think Cat is the most likely scum that isn't Kthx on the wagon side.


Bookitty wrote:
Catastrophe wrote:On the second thing: You're saying it's an anti-scum power. While I agree that depriving scum of information hurts them, I think it hurts town more. If we lose roleflips upon death, scum will later be able to get away with fakeclaiming things. If a player gets NK'ed or lynched without fully claiming, scum can later claim that role and town would be none the wiser that scum is claiming the role of a dead person.



Catastrophe wrote:We only partially agree. You say it's anti-scum, and while I agree that losing role flips would be bad for scum I assert that it is far more detrimental to town. Yes, it's anti-scum. It's way more anti-town. Therefore I don't agree with the argument that his role makes him town based on the assumption that it's an anti-scum role.

As a matter of fact, scum having this PR could help explain why Kthx claimed when he did -- as scum, he would know he wasn't in trouble of being NK'ed, and forgot that from a townie's point of view claiming would put him in danger.

To be entirely clear: I am not saying that I necessarily see Kthx as scum. I'm saying that Boo's reasoning here doesn't make sense to me. As a matter of fact I'm starting to believe a theory that might exclude the possibility that Kthx is scum. I want to get more coordinated with TSO before I talk about it.


These quotes only make sense if you view Kthxbye's power as an active one that he uses after his death. However:

Kthxbye wrote:I'm The Conqueror Worm. I am of the Morbid (as if I'd claim anything else). I enable full card flips. Upon my death, only character's and their alignment will be flipped. Not much better than VT and if ya'll think keeping town PR's from scum is worth it, lynch me.


Kthxbye claimed that power as a passive one that exists only while he is alive.

Catastrophe's view that it is an anti-town role depends on the fact (yes, now known fact) that it is, in fact, an active anti-town role. Town-Catastrophe couldn't have known that. Scum Cat, however, would know it quite well.


Bookitty wrote:There just isn't any way town-Cat knows that Kthxbye deprives us of role PMs rather than enables them, but every part of his argument with me was all about that. The difference in perspective was confusing the heck out of me.

Now that we know that it's true, we know he's scum.

And that makes two on the Lynx wagon, so I bow my head in shame for having been wrong about that.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #176) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:15 am

Post by Bookitty »

Verifying what copper just said.

by Policy Lynch shows the whole progression.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1043 (isolation #177) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 10:24 am

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I'm not meaning to troll. :(

CoA: Could you look at and tell me if and how you think it's wrong?

It depends on a kthxbye scum-flip, but I'm relatively certain of that. ("It's a piece of cake!" -cue the cleaners-)

Seriously, I am pretty sure he will flip scum.
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Post Post #1046 (isolation #178) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 11:26 am

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TierShift wrote:Why did no one ever comment on my claim?


I did. You even answered me.

What do you expect people to say? Treestump, ghost... you apparently either don't know or aren't telling us what the thing was you did that made you into a real person for game purposes, so what do you expect people to comment on?

I mean, congratulations, I think, but I don't know what you think people should be saying.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #179) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:12 pm

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CaskOfAmontillado wrote:We're reexamining the boo case, but she's not out of the woods either.


Hey, if we lynch scum in kthxbye today, I'll be so happy I'll dance my way to the gallows if it comes to that.

Don't worry about it now, Tiershift. I still have a power to be named later, whatever it is. I have the horrible feeling based on Krystal's assessment that I won't have it til I'm dead, but even so it may have some utility.

@Krystal: Can you still communicate using the previous post-restricted method?
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #180) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:28 pm

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TierShift wrote:I was gonna claim until I saw bookitty's post. I'll refrain from it now.


I support and endorse the above. I don't think anyone else should claim today.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #181) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:29 pm

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TierShift wrote:I think I'm not going to effort this game because it's not a game; it seems like a horrifically broken thing where we just lynch from a list.


I'm not viewing it that way; hence my case against Cat.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1065 (isolation #182) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:04 pm

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TierShift wrote:Cat is on the list, don't worry.


I'm on the list too. Just don't check out.
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #183) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 2:37 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Yeah, I'd say Krystal is doing really well at communicating her opinions so far. <3

If we don't get rid of Kthxbye and his strongman kill ability, we're almost certainly wasting one PR and losing another.
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Post Post #1078 (isolation #184) » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:19 pm

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Here is the reason I don't believe kthxbye at all.

Here are our living claims prior to Krystal's info post:

We have an X-shot vig. FTL never said he expended all his shots.
We have a jailkeeper.
We have an even night investigative.
We have a role that provides flip info after a death.

Why on earth would Krystal scum ever choose the last one to kamikaze? That would be LAST on my priority list in this game if I were scum.

Regardless of the drama presented by kthxbye, these are facts known to us. We can't know that the claims are true (though Brantz is in essence confirming FTL and vice versa). FTL seems like the most obvious target for this play by scum, but that's not how it went down.

The only person I can think of who could engineer something like this to confuse the town is copper. I don't think copper is scum here, so I'm going to call shenanigans on kthxbye for scum theater.
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Post Post #1098 (isolation #185) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:29 am

Post by Bookitty »

I'm going to be out for all of this morning and possibly the whole day. I'm not ignoring this thread; I just won't be near a computer.

I'm not setting V/LA for one day (I don't even know if I can) but please consider it that way for now.

Interested to see what Ghato has to say.
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Post Post #1101 (isolation #186) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:16 am

Post by Bookitty »

Kthxbye wrote:Because it was fabricated last night.


This doesn't make sense either. I see no reason why scum would be willing to go 1v1 for your role. Anyway, it also assumes that scum wouldn't adjust for changing conditions on the ground.

Your reaction is so opposite to what mine would be in this situation, Kthxbye. If I could trade the role you have and my life for a guaranteed scum lynch, I'd be delighted. You were even proposing 1v1 with copper earlier in the game. Why are you so survival-motivated now?
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #187) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:49 pm

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I've been thinking about what kthxbye said about Krystal's post being planned out last night. I think to believe this, you have to believe a few other things as well.

1. You have to believe that the scum team must have found Kthxbye's power really really intimidating, enough so that they were willing to trade one-for-one scum for town. I don't buy this.

2. You have to believe that Krystal is not smart enough to adjust the play when more valuable town roles were claimed. In particular, the claimed even-night investigative role and the claimed vig would have been a simple matter of changing the names and the roles. Krystal's post was articulate and smart. I am sure she is too. So I don't buy this either.

3. You have to believe that someone on the scum team has a power that MUST NOT be revealed upon their death. This implies strongly that the person was at risk of death, too, because if not a sacrifice play at this point would make no sense. The only person who fits the second part of that description (last night, remember) is CoA; however, Krystal's timing makes no sense in this regard because the pressure was pretty much off CoA and on Medea and kthxbye at the time that she posted. I don't think CoA is scum anyway at this point, so I really don't buy this.

I don't believe any of those three things, so I feel pretty sure that kthxbye is scum and Krystal is telling the truth. Calling that confbias is pretty silly given that I was clearly confbiased the other way because of Kthx's role and without Krystal's input I probably still would be.

Ninja'd: I'm glad you're feeling better, Medea. I'm also glad Varsoon did not die.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1110 (isolation #188) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:03 pm

Post by Bookitty »

copper223 wrote:@Boo
I also have been thinking about it and what Kthxbye said is not completly crazy you know, I'll post more after a nice rest but I don't think we should just lynch without exploring both scenarios in more detail.


I'm happy to consider other perspectives. Obviously I'm considering the implications of kthxbye-town and Krystal-scum and vice versa; that's what my whole last post was about.
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Post Post #1112 (isolation #189) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:20 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Points I've considered in thinking Kthxbye could be town:

If I am right about the "at least one" being just one, then we have this off the wagon:

FTL and Brantz almost certainly town.
CoA being probably town.

That's two of three of Krystal Bald, Tiershift and Medea the Alien as scum. That's very bad odds for scum and might merit killing someone on the wagon who is town.

Bookitty, Kthxbye, copper, Ghato and catastrophe

If Kthxbye is town, then my whole case on Cat is worthless and should be thrown out. That doesn't make him town, but it sure doesn't make him scum for sure either.

Now you have Bookitty, copper, Ghato and catastrophe. Suddenly that looks like much better odds for lynching within if you're pushing the two on the wagon one off the wagon theory, which several people are.

You have Krystal who will be the lynch for tomorrow, reducing statistical chance for a lynch between Tiershift and Medea. This also makes Tiershift look more suspicious because he was saying "I'm not going to effort because it's just a lynch-off-a-list scenario;" I can see scum saying that out of frustration.

Note that this only works if I'm right about the "at least one" thing meaning one. I've been shouted down about this a lot, though.

If Krystal is scum pushing this particular lynch, it has nothing to do with kthxbye, nothing to do with last night and everything to do with numerical probabilities. It also means that CoA is almost certainly not the other scum off the wagon, because he was out of immediate suspicion at the time Krystal made her post.

I don't know. It's what I thought about, and I came down on the other side. But I don't see a downside for revealing this thought process to town.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1113 (isolation #190) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:43 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Mathematically:

On the wagon:

Bookitty
kthxbye
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Off the wagon:

Krystal Bald
Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado

Let's assume that everyone agrees two scum on and one scum off. Take out Krystal Bald as the one scum off the wagon and kthxbye as town on the wagon, and you have this:

On the wagon

Bookitty
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Off the wagon:

Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado(PROBTOWN)

The people off the wagon will be assumed clear because the one scum off the wagon has been caught. Now you have a pool of four with two scum in them. Scum will kill in the off-the-wagon group and the four names on the wagon will be your lynch group.

Okay, let's assume that everyone agrees with one scum on and two scum off?

On the wagon

Bookitty
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Off the wagon:

Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado(PROBTOWN)

Now it's one in four for the top four and one in three (probably just two) for the bottom five. That's a significant shift in the odds of lynching scum, but it doesn't falsely rule out the possibility of scum in the bottom five.

It's math. It depends on my being right about only one scum in the top four, though, and I'm not sure of that. It also implies that Tiershift or Medea are scum. (CoA wanted to lynch in the off wagon pool, remember. It's my opinion that scum wouldn't want that if this theory is correct.)

If you see mistakes here, please, PLEASE point them out. This is compiled from rough notes I made in a waiting room and it's not guaranteed to be absolutely correct.

So, no, Kthxbye, I did think about it. I just came down on the other side ultimately because I'm not confident about the "at least one" thing, and it all hinges on that.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1116 (isolation #191) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 2:53 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Kthxbye wrote:
Bookitty wrote:then my whole case on Cat is worthless and should be thrown out.

ding ding ding


THIS is what you choose out of all that to comment on?

Why that?
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Post Post #1119 (isolation #192) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:10 pm

Post by Bookitty »

I do not know if this will help, but for completeness, the flip side of this is:

On the wagon:

Bookitty
KthxbyeSCUM
copper223
Ghatokaca
catastrophe

Krystal BaldTOWN
Tiershift
BrantzTOWN
Faster than lightTOWN
Medea the Alien
Cask of Amontillado(PROBTOWN)

Assuming two scum on the wagon, this leaves:

One scum in Bookitty, Copper, Ghato and Catastrophe
One scum in Tiershift, Medea and (very unlikely) CoA

Assuming one scum on the wagon, this leaves:

Two scum in Tiershift and Medea with an outside chance of CoA

In this case, scum would have no choice but to nightkill on the wagon or be outed completely.

Krystal would have saved CoA's life in this case and would have narrowed the lynch pool to an almost autowin status imo regardless of who is right about Ffery's wording.
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Post Post #1121 (isolation #193) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:35 pm

Post by Bookitty »

I really feel like you haven't even read my posts, Kthxbye.

If the general consensus is that I should STFU, though, I'll ask for replacement. I'm not interested in ruining the game for others.
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1125 (isolation #194) » Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:41 pm

Post by Bookitty »

Kthxbye wrote:Please accept (which doesn't mean don't lynch me but outside of the game I'm sorry for being too harsh).


I will apologise instead. I spent half the day waiting to drive a friend home from the hospital and I'm worn out and grouchy. I'm just being oversensitive and I shouldn't have taken it out on you.

I'm sorry about that, Kthxbye. <3
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1129 (isolation #195) » Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:55 am

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Bookitty wrote:@Ghato: Can you ask Lynx to tell me why it was I never lynched him in that game we were in together and then pass on his reply? Thanks!


Please answer this when it's possible, Ghato.
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #196) » Thu Jan 22, 2015 5:03 am

Post by Bookitty »

By the math, Tiershift/Madea makes more sense in that regard if kthx is scum.

Not telling anyone what to do, but the math supports that assuming that all three scum aren't on the Lynx wagon, something I highly doubt.
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Post Post #1723 (isolation #197) » Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:23 am

Post by Bookitty »

I'm really glad town won :) Yay!
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"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1726 (isolation #198) » Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:33 am

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Hey, you're not alone. I thought EVERYONE on the town side was scum just about.

I think I was on the wrong side of just about every debate.

It's definitely no thanks to me that town won. Still I am pleased that we did!
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"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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Post Post #1728 (isolation #199) » Wed Feb 25, 2015 9:46 am

Post by Bookitty »

<3 Copper. I give you full credit for making a huge positive difference during the last two days of this game.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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