UnCouTh mAfia - [UnCouTh eNding]

[zMuffinMan]

i vaguely followed part of this game and just want to say

The only time in those games I was wrong in the slightest was InuYasha when I cleared Mhork from being scum because of his play with BBMolla in an unknown multiball situation.

your VCA was wrong in every meaningful way it could be wrong

firstly, if you were doing VCA based on flipped scum and making assumptions about the rest of the scum team, you ruled out the only player who was

actually

scum with the flipped scum

secondly, your VCA was based on the assumption of a single scum team, so all the voting patterns you noticed were completely coincidental unless you're suggesting two scum teams who don't know each other will necessarily vote in a particular way

while you may have correctly come to the conclusion that certain players were scum based on VCA, it was pure luck that caused this

oh, and as far as i remember, your VCA in knight errant 2 amounted to "i think scum bussed D1 and all but 2 players on that wagon have flipped town" and the basis of this was simply the assertion that scum bus. meh. i am unsure what conclusions you would have come to on the final day of that game if given time, but iirc you were wrong on the final day in your preliminary assumptions

you over-value VCA and you've never done it in a game where (a) there was one or more all-town-on-town wagons (i've seen towns get wrecked by VCA in these games), or (b) scum co-ordinated their votes specifically to manipulate VCA if it ever occurs (same deal). i'm sure you've been right about it in the past to some extent (and you happened to be right here, too), but claiming someone literally cannot be scum because of half-hearted analysis of a single votecount is why people were not listening to you - you can present it as evidence (strong evidence if you think it is strong, though that is arguable), but in the end it's a single piece of evidence and the fact that you haven't been wrong yet (except, you know... when you were wrong) doesn't suggest you're going to be right in future

[zMuffinMan]

funnily enough, my first newbie game on site (as scum) was won when thor brought up VCA and suggested there was almost certainly scum on the D1 town lynch (there wasn't). well, that and some other factors that played into it (like town apathy).

the first large game i followed (but did not play) was cold war mafia, where town basically lost by trying to figure out where the scum was on an all-town-on-town wagon

anyway, the fact that you have been "lucky" is because you're making statements that are

generally

true - it's not to do with "VCA" and i wouldn't call it luck. in most games, the assumptions you're making probably would be true. the issue is: there's no guarantee it is true, and you pretend it's a certainty

for example, it is reasonable to assume that if scum was lynched D1, at least one scum member bussed - you would probably find this is the case in most games (and certainly in well over 90% of large games). but it is not always the case, and making this assumption and being right about it in 5-6 games in a row would not guarantee you're right about it in the 7th - just that it is a reasonable assumption and something to strongly consider when looking at other factors as well