8:4 Vanilla Nightless [TM2015] - GAME OVER

[Hoopla]

hello everyone.

who should i vote for?

[Hoopla]

i abstain from the greyice and sotty argument.

who else would like to have a chat?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: silverwolf

[Hoopla]

i want to help nachomamma while i'm still getting engaged in the game. lets create some sexy wagons.

[Hoopla]

Secondly, quit trying to be all, "look at me, I'm active! Look how town I am with my activity!!! Look how lazy he is!!!" You just add fuel to the fire.

i agree with this.

i'm hoping for a relaxed fun time with friends. i don't think adding pressure to the quality/quantity information individuals are producing is useful -- it harms the cohesion of the town.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla's entrance was super notinteresting. Like almost deliberately so.

i think it's because i'm such a naturally engaging person, anything less than that feels you're being shortchanged. i'll have some juicy analysis for this game at some point, but i feel like right now my value lies in mediating this town and it's what i intend to focus on for a bit.

[Hoopla]

lets pretend we're building a house. we have a big pile of bricks and that is good, but they don't work just stacked on top of each other. we need the enabling cement that connects us and makes us a powerful unit. i'm going to be the cement this game, where ordinarily i would be a brick like grey and abr.

[Hoopla]

my first action in this town as cement is to announce that this game hinges on the success of our first two lynches. this is a poorly designed setup where the better you start doing as town, the more you are rewarded for it (a successful lynch of scum not only gives us more information, but also an additional mislynch), and the worse you are doing as town, the harder it is (ie; it is virtually impossible to win this game in a 4:5 lylo as it requires every townie to be right and willing to follow a lylo voting structure. 4:6 is also really hard).

people always expect creative bussing as scum in this setup, but their optimal play is to try and get to 4:6 and just ram home the last two mislynches with brute force. i don't know if i should be announcing whether that is scum's optimal play, but they

probably

know this already, so we should play in the way optimal to scum's optimal strategy -- and that requires discussing it. with this playerlist, i see a lot of 1v1 page-clogging and people vying for town leadership (we already have talks of town blocs). this worries me because the fallout of these fights always serve as a catalyst for people to just vote whoever else, and if we're close to deadline at all, we will scramble and people like greyice and ABR will try and bully the town into their decision. We need to aim for the D1 lynch to occur a couple days out from deadline to be safe. And we also need to talk about alternate voting schemes for 4:5 and 4:6 days, because we can't win it normally (the town has to essentially nail the whole team). The importance of the D1 and D2 lynch is critical to our success -- so lets try and work together.

[Hoopla]

following on from the previous post: if abr or greyice are scum, they can create enough noise and use the scum voting bloc to win the game -- to the point, where i'm effectively willing to gamble on their alignment being town and hope we can channel our energy together as a unit.

[Hoopla]

Oh god don't TELL them optimal play.

you're underestimating the collective knowledge of the scumteam. four people in this team and then a crew of teammates with eyes on the game. scum already know how to play optimally.

[Hoopla]

But if our house lands on someone who isn't the wicked witch, it may be a very nice house, but it's not very effective. You really sure Silver is the choice of the day? Because let me tell you, I am not.

i haven't figured out my vote yet. just wanted to be on a wagon while i get going.

[Hoopla]

Also I consider this game lost if it hits 6:4 or 5:4 with 90% certainty. My goal here is a day 1 scum lynch, with day 2 as backup (6 of 7 is slightly easier than 7 of 8).

I agree with this. I haven't thought much about the right way to play those days to give us something better than a 10% chance, but off the top of my head: if the D1 and D2 lynch are town, the D2 lynchee chooses the lynch for D3 (or picks their towniest player and they pick during D3 and everyone sheeps). The scum-bloc is too powerful on these days. An honest gamble from a lynched townie is better than playing the setup normally and letting scum manipulate D3 and D4.

[Hoopla]

Essentially turn the game into a vengeful? I'm down with that. It's got to be better than trying to put together an all-town wagon.

The skillset of all townies required to orchestrate a lynch against scum playing optimally on D3/4 is just way too unrealistic for them to all have. Turning it into a vengeful after D2 is surely better odds, because there is guaranteed no scum manipulation. We're gonna sacrifice accuracy compared to a good scumhunter's choices, but there is too high a chance that they're scum to blind trust a good player. Let the guaranteed innocent person choose, even if it seems stupid.

[Hoopla]

As an aside, this setup feels pretty broken-ish if it's better for town to play it this way. Naughty zor for picking it. And naughty gammagooey for putting me here.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: eddie

Hehe

[Hoopla]

302 is why we need to hit scum d1 or d2. Mavericks in lylo don't work well for town.

[Hoopla]

This feels pretty depressing that all my brain can think about is damage control.

[Hoopla]

hello. been prodded. my scheduele opens up after this weekend, so stick with me.

[Hoopla]

hello. i'm back with a free scheduele to play this game now. sorry for not giving this game the time it deserves.

*reading*

[Hoopla]

I'm surprised that there was such a large disagreement to my D3/4 vengeful plan. It seems pretty logical to me when you look at how this setup is being played. The town is already splintering and shifting its energy in a way where it will be hard for us to lynch scum. I am not going to propose a new direction -- instead I am giving my vote to someone doing good things: GreyICE. I think his interaction with me was protown and he's going to be a great asset for the town deeper in the game. I believe he can this way as scum, but like I said earlier, if he is scum, I think this game is a write-off.

Grey, are we lynching Kagami? I want to know how serious your current vote is...

[Hoopla]

i'm observing...

i think my vote is doing more under someone else's reign.

[Hoopla]

I've mulled things over. All things considered, I still want a Hoopla lynch; her being scum is a sure thing for me at this point.

why do you think this?

[Hoopla]

no problem.

i'm aware my play has been poor and i don't feel connected to the game yet -- that is the reason i'm offloading my vote to someone who will do something with it. i feel like my sheeping of a town player has more value than playing on my own.

of all the people suspicious of me, seraphim's scumread on me seems particularly arbitrary, and looks like he is currently taking advantage of this situation.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, I've been scumreading you since fucking forever ago, don't even try that.

i know. that's why it's suspicious. there is no fluidity of opinion -- just a script you are following.

[Hoopla]

See, look. I don't think Sotty's town. But she's trying! See trying? That's the feeling I don't get from your posts.

i try harder as scum. that isn't a valuable metric to read me by.

and i think this wagon on me is for punitive reasons as opposed to people actually thinking i'm scum.

[Hoopla]

Truly, do you think there's the least little chance of you living to the end of the game?

i think it's pretty transparent that i am town. the onus is on everyone else to see that.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, do you have any reads? Any players you think are town or scum?

i think you are scum.
i think metal's activity and engagement is town.
nachomamma is playing a protown game -- we need him alive.
abr probably has too much influence in the game, but i don't know his alignment yet.
i'm suspicious of sotty buddying up to me, although i understand that mindset.

[Hoopla]

You were willing to sheep me with your vote and you have no ideas on my alignment? O.O

i think you're playing a protown game, and are the player i trust most to lead late-game scenarios. so, i'd have you as mild town right now.

[Hoopla]

Great, but you have a stronger town read on ABR apparently.

I don't remember saying anything about his alignment. I think his influence on the game is likely to be toxic regardless of his alignment, but he's not really worth lynching -- so you kinda need to work around his parameters to get anything done as town.

[Hoopla]

She's going to flip town, that wagon went way to fast.

who is the scum on my wagon?

[Hoopla]

i endorse seraphim and eddie wagons tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

town. i'm surprised that people genuinely thought i could be scum here...

[Hoopla]

all good.

sorry for the game everyone -- a bit rusty. didn't really know where to start in identifying scum.

[Hoopla]

i think there were actually a decent amount of townies voting for me, that it will make finding the scum taking advantage of my situation difficult. as i said before, i'd start with seraphim...

[Hoopla]

nope.

[Hoopla]

you should know me better, abr.

[Hoopla]

Then why wait? Why not make him a doublevoter now?

will do. lets get a vote count first, though.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: kagami

hehe

[Hoopla]

apologies once more.