White Flag Mafia [TM2015] (Game Over)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Where are Regfan and CES?

I was just sleeping.

I'll be the first to say just in case it's true: our scum team here is Cheery Dog, ika and Regfan (despite the town token).

Vote: Cheery Dog

'marble, with me!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I feel left out!

Join the Cheery Dogwagon. I'm planning to have Regfan and 'marble join it!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

There should be at least some token discussion up in here (Think it'll be useful now if not will certainly be later in this game/tournament). I used two for town here and wasn't even the biggest hog in our team, Empire took three. Want to know where/how other teams used their tokens.

We can do that later. I'd rather do some good ol'-fashioned RVSing first.

Cheery Dogread was mostly an instinctual response to his opening post's lack of anything. His second post is probably worse, although I initially skimmed over it. The token angle did come to mind but that's not based on much. You should join the wagon, Regfan, you know what happened when you went off on your own last time D1.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Psyche, I believe in you. You can be the small cat that casts a long shadow.

Low blow man, low blow. Not a huge fan of RVS'ing and think discussion along token usage and reasoning will be more beneficial long-term.

It'll still be beneficial long-term if we do it two days from now. Respect my scumhunting process, please. I like to imagine I can recapture some of my former glory here.

What'd you think of Elks vote/post?

I didn't care about it when I read it. You make a perfectly okay point but I can't say it resonates with me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Might just be a playstyle thing, might be from playing on another (non-mafia but having mafia games) site with different rules and a meta resulting from that, but I tend to think a quickly building wagon without a solid case, especially at the start of an early day, probably has at least one scum. Don't have good rules for identifying which of the votes is the scum though.

Why would you need rules? Can't you just look at the votes and see if any of them seem off or scummy (e.g. Cheery Dog or from your perspective maybe Bluetoffee)?

but neither Regfan nor CES has towned very hard yet.

Were you expecting us to?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

'Marble, why aren't you voting Cheery Dog? You must know this Psyche-thing is kind of weak given that he's being perfectly open about it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Nacho assigns Cheery Dog some townpoints for admitting he took a scum token. I'd like to hear more from CD.
Who are Cheery's buddies?

My best guess currently would be 2 of {Ankamius, elk, ika} although I wouldn't be particularly happy lynching any of those currently.

Too much WIFOM to really call it alignment indicitive, I think.

I think the decision to say it probably isn't very alignment-indicative (the token and his play so far on the other hand totally are). If CD felt it was obvious he would take a scum token, he'd probably feel lying about it would make him more suspicious.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Assuming Empire still reads too many games, I wouldn't mind having a rough guide as to how good at scum each member of our player list is.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your strongest reasoning for voting in this game right now is that he might have used one token to roll scum? That's pretty weak.

It's not a "might". We know he did.

It's also exactly the sort of reasoning Llamarble gravitates towards. You can be a luddite and pretend this information doesn't exist but don't expect everyone else to.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you want to insist on pointless distinctions, there's some teensy chance CheeryDog could be scum lying about it (and an even teensier chance that he's town lying about it). That doesn't change the fact that 'marble's argument is most certainly that he did use it and you represented it as being weaker than it really is.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES; Empire wants to know you were so forthcoming on the cheery read as that's not how he remembers you being generally especially in the early game.

It all just felt relevant. I also think I've probably grown a bit less concise over the course of the last year or so.

Assuming Empire still reads too many games, I wouldn't mind having a rough guide as to how good at scum each member of our player list is.

He wanted me to say he doesn't read games anymore due to lack of time and he's unfamiliar with a large portion of the rosters meta.[/quote]
I figured afterwards that that was likely to be the case.

Aeronaut, can you have Cabd give me the information that I want?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hi Antihero, why the switch?

Fair enough, any of the town reads of mine you disagreeing with at all?

I have no idea where the town read on TTH comes from. Most of her play seems reasonably solid but not all that telling apart from maybe #135 (which just seems weird).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also worth stating that my team thinks that Aeroaut fits "Wallflower scum" in that his posts his posts really just leave him in the background but don't think he makes sense with Elk as scum since don't think he'd buss D1 in this setup and more confident on Elk being scum here, want to know what you think of the two of them individually / as potential partners at the moment cause that's kind of messing up our reads a little right now.

I can see your point about Aeronaut although I don't think it's that convincing at this stage. The vote on Elk probably does mean either your conception of how Aeronautscum plays is a bit off or that they aren't scum together (third option is that it's a more deliberate plan but that can be revisited later). But I wouldn't be worrying overly much about pairings at this stage (I can calculate for you approximately how much you should care if you give me consistent probabilities for each player being scum).

Antihero, I still want to know why you and tth switched games.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As far as I am seeing, llama currently wants to treat me as a milker policy lynch, and I don't like it.

It's not a policy lynch to lynch someone for being more likely to be scum than everyone else.

ok so does soemone have a town case for elk or can we like lynch that slot with fire now?

'Marble's point in #247 is probably the best reason to believe elktown.

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

But you don't feel the need to share the reasons why?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Regfan is scum if Llama is scum.

I would suggest thinking of that as the logically equivalent "Llama is town if Regfan is town" because they're both probably town regardless of your silly hang-ups.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Llama (And CES), I'm not reading the copper related section as a town-tell at all and if you really are I want the thought process behind that explained in super-detail because if their team were following the game and had reads (For instance having TTH as town) then it'd have been mentioned prior to the replace out or have mentioned reads elsewhere by this stage, whole thing looks like trying to add something in the scummy-vote switch post and commenting on a replace out fits.

The specific comment just feels like a non-obvious thing to make up. And then elk immediately connected it to the present situation in a natural way. If elk was just making something up to distract from the Psyche-vote (which, admittedly, is problematic), I would've expected a more generic statement.

Liked the explanation behind the scum read on Psyche in Post 81 even though I don't really agree with it's conclusion, also liked the way she interacted and treated both Psyche and Ika following that, read as attempting to get content from the to strengthen / get a read (The "game dynamic" element of the Ika weak scum read was something I didn't really like though which Empire also picked up on). It was a fairly weak read though and am sure I'll be able to read Antihero much more confidently (his reaction towards Zach in Post 232 reads town already) but want to see reads from him.

I'd give TTH some townie points for being observant in post 81 if it wasn't solely about Psyche but it is, so it all feels fairly easy for scum to pull off.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Just noticed I've got a note from a little birdie that you may have used a scum token in this game, want to weigh in on that at all for me?

No alignment tokens for me. Like Oversoul, I haven't played a forum game in over 10 months and at the end then I was just playing badly as town and not drawing any scum roles. So part of me wanted to draw a scum role for the first time in ages and part of me wanted to draw a town role to get a chance to rekindle my town spark by reliving my finest hour. But then I was also pretty sure too I could quite easily screw up either as scum or town. I wasn't going to spend an alignment token when I didn't have a clear preference and if in doing so I would feel responsible for that choice.

Also any of your team following this game at all - if so would like to hear a bit of their discussion and thoughts on it - especially if there's anything on any of Oversoul/Psyche/Anak.

I remember Patrick saying some things about our game in our skype chat at some point but I've mostly forgotten what he said. Both Channel and Fenchurch haven't read my game at all.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yarr. Obviously.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yarr. Zach is going to live forever.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(Unlike Llama I'm nowhere near "I have this game solved feeling" yet and Empires p much at the "this game is hard, and bad" stage".)

You know we don't have to actually solve the game, right? I'm just aiming to win it in three lynches and that seems pretty doable.

don't think it's a hard thing at all to fake/change what the real comment was to "Damn we had him as town!"

The point is sort of that he said something that feels quite a bit harder than that.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Cheery Dog, is your only scum read right now the one on elk?

Aeronaut, I'd still like you do ask Cabd how strong every player's scum game is, approximately.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Solving the game is the fun part, no? Gives me something to do during breaks at work, on the bus, instead of being able to fall asleep. Okay, maybe I'm just crazy but I like to feel like I've got a very good grasp on the scum-team and have a solid group of town reads I'd bank on and I'm not having it this game yet.

*shrug* Given how my last few town games went, just winning with panache would make me pretty happy. And catching the whole scum team feels too hard still.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's worth pointing out (for those among us that care) that a scum token will generally more than double your chance of being scum.

I did the calculations for the scenario 1 scum token on Cheery, 1 town token on Regfan, 'marble and Zach each (I'd guess one of Regfan or Zach got two but that doesn't change much) and I did also take into account that I'm town (which makes it slightly less applicable for the three town token players):
Cheery has a 64% chance of scum to start with; regular people have 25% just like in the tokenless game and the three town tokens have 12%.
I also did the calculations for the scenario that on top of that someone else also used a scum token, in which case you get:
62.5% for the scum tokens; 21% for the tokenless and 9% for the town tokens.

Do you want to keep voting for 'marble, Ankamius, knowing that in both scenarios, Cheery Dog literally started the game more than 5 times as likely to be scum as him?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, didn't realise a single scum-token had that drastic an impact on alignment (Was also expecting the jump to be around 40-50%), we'd only run the town token one (Had worked out the odds of both Empire and I drawing town pre-game was 75% ignoring any other teams token usage) and were still panicking over that. Mina said she wants to try and calculate where your numbers come from when she's not so busy, want to save her some time and just throw out your workings here?

This is a bit awkward but apparently zoraster hid the most important information at the bottom of a long boring post, so I thought the tokens still moved the bounds by 100/80 (I never double-checked previously since our token distribution was fairly straightforward). I was just going to pretend I hadn't made that error since the tokens match up with my reads anyway but I guess I can't do that now.

I'm too lazy to calculate the real numbers given that they'll be uglier now but I bet my previous observation that tokenless people still have 25% of being scum is approximately true, so you should get something like 56% vs 25% vs 15%.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I did like that Cheery Dog completely ignored it and made a vote on ika which really looks like it's meant as WIFOM for after we lynch CD (even though, realistically, it probably isn't).

Would be nice if someone could pop in here to bounce thoughts/reads off given I have the next hour or so free finally and all my loser team mates are asleep.

I've got some time!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think we should all just pretend that didn't happen apart from the part where Cheery Dog was scummy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think CD's ignorance of your numbers being incorrect or the argument being presented itself is a scum-tell given there isn't a way for him to really respond without an awkward conversation ensuing (It's also not something he'd care to discuss as either alignment). That said I didn't like the Ika vote, the "annoyed we early wagoned him" doesn't read genuine at all. Still think the timing of Aeronaut vanishing from this game while being super active elsewhere is a much stronger scum-tell ie. After Elks super towny post he doesn't seem to know how to react at all - it's how I've seen scum act several times in this kind of situation.

I do think the ikavote is something you're more likely to do as scum if you feel you're probably getting lynched. I don't really see what Cheery Dog thinks is going to come from that.

Also what's your read on Oversoul? I found Post 408 townish upon first read through but the more times I've gone over it the more I think it is very fakeable.

I find it hard to judge since I've only been on all-town teams. It's probably slightly townish just for the sheer quantity of Tammy's reads (and I wasn't particularly expecting any from the other captains) even though they're all individually fakeable.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, do you expect me to sit there as town and just get lynched?

no.

Uh, there's one vote on you?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Uh yea, I actually don't know what the fuck I was talking about; if it were a fabricated fight, then the suspicion would fall under SvS.

I will quote this for posterity.

CES, there's cookies over here.

Maybe in a bit.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm mostly just not in a particular hurry to lynch anyone.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

At the bottom of this post.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oversoul, I don't see ABR taking the time to actively coach anyone.

For the record, in the last two team mafias, Llamarble has been scum in the White Flag game. Still not entirely sure this is not some sort of big ruse but Tammy says that Llamarble does prefer town and that sort of thing and I am willing to trust him on that.

We did also lynch him Day 2 in the second year. That's definitely worth noting.

I'm really happy with my vote and people should be voting Oversoul now.

Does Oversoul's response (#441) change your mind in that regard?

That goes for ika (still hasn't placed a vote) too actually. I don't see why those players are strong townreads for people. Not actively scummy? OK, I buy that. But I see any 'I am super impressed if you wrote this as scum' from them.

I think it's mostly that people expect ikascum to be more obvious and also partly people giving ika credit for some of GIF's opinions. I don't think he looks amazing but if ika is scum, he'll probably get caught at some point.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I like how in Ankamius' iso, you have the following two posts one after another:

After speaking with my team about the game state tonight, I believe that all three of the major wagons up to this point (theelkspeaks, Psyche, and Cheery Dog) are on town.

Quick question for you Cheery Dog.

I don't think I've found enough town in anybody yet to do that. At least not until you asked. At this stage I think Pysche and Aeronaut.

Scum reads are probably Llama, BBT and elk.

Vote would probably be on Llama, but it's waiting on what may happen with his push on me before it's placed.

Has your reads changed since this post? If so, what has changed?

He really seems very uninterested in having any sort of positive impact on the game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I do think the ikavote is something you're more likely to do as scum if you feel you're probably getting lynched. I don't really see what Cheery Dog thinks is going to come from that.

I'm hoping what comes will be a successful ika lynch. That's pretty obvious isn't it?

And you think that will happen just as a result of you placing a single unexplained vote?

are we goning to wagon me again? can i finally do slayers gambit?

If you want to do a gambit this game, you should ask GuyInFreezer for permission first.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I like that Ankamius' scumhunting seems to mostly consist of one of his team mates having a theory that two obvtown people are scum together. I'd be very surprised if there weren't at least 2 scum in {Cheery Dog, Aeronaut, Ankamius}. The only tricksy decision now is who to lynch first since it would be such a waste if we mislynched D1.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Really just need to spend more time figuring out Psyche/Anti more now but feeling much better about my reads and the gamestate now then I was a few days ago.

Anti is probably town. It's hard to exclude the possibility of Psychescum but Ank just looks that much scummier.

I would suggest you look at Ank with an eye of using team mates' opinions in lieu of content/scumhunting. Look at #257 and how he has absolutely no follow-up; he doesn't connect it to anything; he doesn't push against the elkwagon (when he makes his next post, the elkwagon still exists but he's asking Cheery a silly question). If #257 is true, I would think that pretty relevant, but he seems content just to have shared his team mates' opinions. In #466, he does at least criticize Bulbazak's theory on two points but note that his criticism seems to unquestionably accept bulba's scumhunting method; it feels more like he's trying to extrapolate what bulbazak would think than come up with his own stuff; he also doesn't seem to connect bulbazak's theory in any way to any reads he might have - he manages to go an entire theory of you being scum without ever giving his opinion on your play and his conclusion doesn't even seem to distinguish between you and 'marble even though he's voting for 'marble and given reasons for doing so previously.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I have a hard time believing this game won't be an easy town win if CES + Regfan + me are all town and all agree, so please please don't give total control to Regfan / CES if we haven't lynched scum by D3 and BBT / me eat the first 2 NKs.

Yarr. If all three of us are town, we should definitely held to the standard of winning the game within 3 lynches.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's probably for this Day to be over.

Vote: Aeronaut

Ika, Psyche, get it done.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Are you telling me to wagon Aero

Yarr.

Oversoul, I appreciate Tammy's input but I'm sure I'd also appreciate it on Day 2. Let's not stand still needlessly.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What changed in the span of 48 hours?

Ankamius as a solid #3 suspect. I wanted a solid back-up plan in case one of Cheery Dog/Aeronaut flipped town and I feel like I have that now.

I'm not going to hammer someone I don't have a read on. Sorry! Tonight!

It wouldn't be a hammer anyway. Just sheep me/'marble/Regfan. There's two former paragons in that group!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You can make it right by truthfully telling us your alignment.

And voting for Aeronaut, that would also help.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

When I check this game tomorrow morning, I'm counting on there being an Aeronaut scumflip waiting for me.

The people pushing for ika are a pair of scumbags and someone who needs to listen to his team mate. It's time to end this day.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Still at Aero-CD-Anti.

And you're still going to be expected to get Ank lynched if 'marble and I get nightkilled and the game isn't over by D3, just fyi.

But yes, people need to put some votes down.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

========[}
{]========

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Dammit Zach. You know Ank's still going to be around D2.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I wouldn't be surprised if something was lost in translation, but I've playing a hydra game with GIF before and I can't figure out why he would suddenly switch his read on elk like this. The only time I remember him having a sudden read change like that out of nowhere was when he mistook one player for another, and I don't exactly see that being a likely possibility here

Multiple people in this game have made the exact same read change; 'marble even explicitly laid out reasoning for elk being town in #224, shortly before GIF changed his mind.

Anyway, you've wasted enough of our time. Can we finally get our Aerolynch?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote Count 1.19

Aeronaut (4) - Zachrulez, Regfan, Oversoul, Llamarble
Psyche (2) - Antihero, theelkspeaks
Cheery Dog (1) - Cogito Ergo Sum
ika (1) - Cheery Dog
Llamarble (1) - Ankamius
Oversoul (1) - BlueBloodedToffee
theelkspeaks (1) - Aeronaut

Not Voting (2) - ika, Psyche

With 13 alive, it will take 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, April 13, 2015, at 9:00 PM EDT (UTC-4), which is in (expired on 2015-04-13 21:00:00).

This minus the 'marble vote was the vote count when Aeronaut declared his V/LA.

So you can put that idea out of your mind and vote for Aeronautscum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

VOTE: Cheery Dog

Aeronaut flipping town was an unpleasant surprise but it also makes Cheery Dog and Ankamius more likely to be scum and I don't see much reason to deviate from the course.

Oversoul, I would've liked Day 1 to have ended earlier, so maybe try voting scum instead?

Elk, I think BBT's push on ika is pretty weird, but it doesn't make sense to twist that into an argument against ika (through the "it's not TvT" theory).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Right, so Oversoul's town. theelkspeaks is probably town. I feel okay about Regfan. ika still looks slimy, but I'll wait to see if GIF replaces in and try to read him instead. CES is scum.

I have no idea why Llamarble was killed. My theory of most of the scum being off wagon combines the factors of how scummy Aero looked, how the wagon formed, and where the nightkill was. (With the idea being that scum would tend to kill where they're not hiding.)

Can you go into detail more here please?

Regfan, you must be able to see that 726 is a town-looking post.

Cheery Dog, Regfan is not getting lynched unless he keeps living without winning us the game. He's not close to being a lynch option yet.
What's the basis of that read anyway? Just that one (genuine-sounding) post?

Can we just lynch Ank today? He is so scummy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

VOTE: Ankamius

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think I've been that dismissive of you, Ank. A lot of your play just feels unconnected to the game and I'm going to point that out when I see it. I did the same when Cheery Dog placed his ikavote.

CES, can you walk me through your Aero scum read late D1?

The main thing was just his lack of scumhunting. It is still the #1 scum tell for a reason. The SvT thing also felt a bit like scum getting his hand caught in the cookie jar (in a way that was consistent with the previous point).

But I was suspicious of Aero well before I became suspicious of Ank. I wanted to keep Day 1 going, keeping Regfan and' marble alive, until I felt there was a clear path to victory and the Anksuspicion made me feel that there was. There just wasn't that much to say about Aero late D1 because he wasn't posting.

Anti, I'll respond to your post when I get home from the meet on Friday and I'm no longer limited to this ipad.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

also, as bbt pointed out, this is constructing an alternate history that's not borne out by the posting itself

I don't really care whether it is borne out by my posting history, although I'm pretty sure it's in my posts, at least implicitly, around the time I started posting about my Anksuspicion and before that. What incentive is there for me to lie about whether I was suspicious of Ank or Aero first?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It justifies your jump onto the Aero wagon if you scum read him for longer than what you actually did.

I don't need to make up anything to justify my jump onto the Aerowagon because there was a genuinely solid case on him.

IN FACT, in Post 217 you actually go out of your way to shoot down whatever point regfan made on aero at the time.

Regfan asked me to comment on it. I acknowledged the validity of his points against Aeronaut, although I didn't find it as convincing as the case against Cheery Dog.

Context is key. In Day 1 I spend the majority of my time trying to work together with Regfan and 'marble to find three good suspects. That context alone should make it obvious that I thought Aeronaut was a genuine suspect long before I voted him. It also applies to the silly point Antihero made about me asking Regfan why he had a town read on tth.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What changed in the span of 48 hours?

Ankamius as a solid #3 suspect. I wanted a solid back-up plan in case one of Cheery Dog/Aeronaut flipped town and I feel like I have that now.

There. Easy-peasy. I said it explicitly Day 1.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Still not sold on CES being scum but admit that I don't like him saying he found Aero scummier before Ank in Post 839 given his response to me in Post 217 about Aero while stating a scum read on Ank in Post 145.

What I post on page 6, isn't necessarily very serious. Certainly, looking back, I realize that my progression on Aero happened mostly out of thread but I can't take the notion that I'd be making this up very seriously.

Reading the above two posts as p genuine, specifically the "I'm not a good team player" admission behind not outing team-reads and while it's super annoying and wrong I don't think he'd be attempting to use BoP on me at this point as scum especially when it's p fucking obvious that I'm not going to be mslynched here, think he'd instead be focusing on pushing someone that would have a legit chance of being lynched over him. STILL want reads and thoughts in more depth from him but really not feeling good about my vote on him anymore and think I need to step back here.

I agree that the "I'm not a good team player" admission but it also doesn't really relate to his alignment all that much? The BoP thing all feels like a bunch of WIFOM to me - CheeryDogscum would most want to look town here rather than anything else.

It's worth looking back at his ikavote and seeing that he never explained it, didn't push it even as ika did become the #2 wagon and dropped it Today with a comment that was possibly even vaguer than no explanation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I showed you in your ISO that it was not obvious that you suspected Aero.

I really don't care. I play to lynch scum and I felt Aero gave us the best odds of hitting scum at the end of D1. I'm not going through imaginary hoops to justify my push ahead of time or take a backseat today because we didn't hit scum Yesterday.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't see scum!CD thinking he'd be able to get away with that reasoning at all and would know I'm not getting ML'ed here but Zar thinks scum always "push against the grain" to seem town so he's not reading it as a town-tell at all.

Yarr, that's what I was thinking. It feels a bit unintuitive but it's unquestionably a thing.

Vote: Cheery Dog

Feel better about this vote now, especially after looking back at the ikastuff.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I will now give the promised response to Antihero's post!

>Post 128, psyche's being "open" about something apparently doesn't float w/ cheery dog and the token. lol

'Marble was voting Psyche for weak reasons (he conceded as much later) which I pointed out.

>he's been HAMMERING on the same people over and over and over this game. wait for it... "but anti, you've been doing the same thing." yes, yes i have. however, i cannot boast 50 relatively chunky posts (so it's not like he just hasn't been here like i haven't). and the reasoning behind the rabid ankamius push is disappointingly anemic and reads on literally ANYONE else in the game just simply don't exist. the reasoning on cheery can pretty much be distilled to "he's more likely to be scum b/c of token" which is a really easy argument to shove and it's a really conservative move. same thing for ank. he's not an especially high risk push here, so it's really convenient that the "scumreads" fall on these two players. the third fell on the em player who already flipped town, so there's that too.

I was pushing Cheery Dog before he even admitted to having a token and he's looking really likely to be scum. But yes, I have been focusing on a few people because I've been playing this game with the goal of finding the scum D1 and getting them lynched. I know I'm capable of it, especially given the ability to discuss it with Regfan and 'marble. I'm not going to bother writing up a list of town reads and justifying them because that's not going to win me the game. If you'd bother reading my discussions with Regfan and 'marble, I think most of them should be obvious anyway.

>the whole "i'm getting nk'd" routine is an old trick and it ain't foolin' me Post 608 especially given that he has no reason to be nk'd. it's overplayed.

Matias also thought there was no reason I'd be nightkilled last Team Mafia even after I got nightkilled Night 2. Regfan and 'marble are certainly the obvious targets but there are definitely situations in which I would get nightkilled, one of which I was specifically talking about.

It feels good to have fully working internet and a keyboard again!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I hatehatehate his comment about one slot in his scumlist being town making the rest more likely. Nothing about that post looked town to me.

A friendly reminder to the people on the wagon that you're sharing it with this scumbag. One slot in my scumlist being town does make the rest more likely scum. That's how probability works. I'm not going to suddenly stop trusting my scumhunting process; being wrong occasionally is just part of the game.

This is just weird given that regfan started off this day saying the same thing.

I'm not even fully sure what point you're making, Cheery Dog, but the post you quoted was in response to Regfan's first post.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's not fearmongering. That is literally the only thing Ank has said to support his vote on me. Cheery is even worse in that he just simply didn't support his vote on you one iota; and his Regfanvote isn't that much better. How many times am I going to have to point this out before I get my scum lynches?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

How come you only have those 2 as scum read when there are 3 scum members then?

Even when I had 3 strong scum reads, I wasn't expecting all three of them to be scum. I'm perfectly happy taking advantage of the fact that we only need to lynch 2 scum to win!

Psyche is third most likely, just by PoE, but if he's going to continue playing like this, he's not going to win as scum anyway, so I see very little reason to care about him at this point.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

why did you delibertly not answer my second part CES?

I have little interest in boring hypotheticals and you haven't given me the impression you would get much out of it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I gave you a serious answer to your serious question.

But if you insist: if Ank was town, then I'd be even more certain that Cheery Dog is scum. I'd be significantly more suspicious of Psyche since him being town would require two of my town reads to be scum. Knowing there was definitely one scum among the rest would probably push forward elk and BBT in my eyes.

I'd be surprised if you got anything useful out of that. I don't have any grand theories about what's going on that require Ankscum and that I assign particular weight to. It's a boring hypothetical.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Knowing where your response has come from doesn't change the point at all.

The point itself being a possible daytalk about that subject.

I still don't quite know what that subject is but why would you posit out-of-thread communication as an explanation when there's clear in-thread communication that already explains it?

and your own reads have better reasons, or just ones that you can understand? Because that's what I feel you've put on me here.

My own tendency towards concision is 100% irrelevant. Your ikavote feels like there's neither substance or conviction to it. Your push on Regfan consists mostly of conveniently throwing around Burden of Proficiency (on D2!).

Psyche, do you want to comment on the "team mates" thing?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aneninen, your first mission, should you choose to accept it, is to summarize your team mates' comments on this game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

975 - I don't think ika is the easiest person to lynch in this game. I tried for quite some time and it never even got close.

That's because he hasn't been scummy. There's still some measure truth to what Zach is talking about, which you should be able to intuit; I know I've made similar pushes as scum in the past.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aneninen, your first mission, should you choose to accept it, is to summarize your team mates' comments on this game.

I'll repeat this so you don't miss it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Zoraster will have given you privileges even if you haven't received a link, so you should be able to find it in the Private Topics forum.

And yarr, I said summarize. You are definitely allowed to summarize your team mates' comments.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

This is EXTREMELY atrocious. Gamma forcefully thinks that sort of "my procedure was bad and i'm alert to this and look over there that's what we OUGHT TO have done CLEARLY" is CONSIDERABLY more plausible to be coming from scum than town as a path of proactively expounding why what they did was bad and trying to persuade players that they're town.

Gamma also didn't like his views about expecting for the scum flip yesterday that feel cocksure and squally

But Regfantown would definitely feel that way. They're pretty obvious comments for him to make.

Gamma also didn't like his views about expecting for the scum flip yesterday that feel cocksure and squally, and that his remark ages ago about elk not being scum with aeronaut felt like an exemption not to vote him even though that's a fairly negligible thing.

Why would Regfanscum want a reason not to vote Aeronaut?

If you think Regfan is scum, doesn't Ankamius seem like a slamdunk scum buddy anyway? I very much doubt Regfanscum can afford to bus.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(And I still can't see the Team Topic.)

Ask zoraster?

Are those notes meant for us, for you or for both?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

However, I've only looked into it, so far it doesn't seem that they have a detailed opinion about this game. Although, I only checked a couple of posts so I may have missed info there.

It doesn't have to be detailed. I'm interested in anything at all they said.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think it might be something to with not wanting to vote elk, I'll bug gamma to redefine that one.

He was using it as a reason against Aeronautscum, not elk. If he wanted to avoid voting elk, wouldn't he have listened to 'marble and me repeatedly trying to explain an elk towntell to him?

Nope. I'm tending to actually townread Ank.
and since he has now posted his "proof", and it wasn't trying to be a trust tell like I suspected when I asked for it, I think that's still more reason to have him as town.

However since you're trying to move me off my vote to someone that 'could' be a buddy, it's just what?

I do obviously think an Ankvote would be the better play for if you're town, but I was mostly just probing your view of the game and your conception of Regfanscum. What do you think Regfanscum is actually doing?

This, by the bye, BluebloodedToffee, is what actual opportunism looks like.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

With more information about Regfan having brought up wallflowers and then bussing that early in the game. The thing about trying to do associate tells is overkill there.
It by itself isn't much to go on, but it's mostly fake content as that type of reads just doesn't get there accurately that early in the game.

Now you're just trying to claim the post is suspicious regardless of what happened.

No, voting townreads is not a better play for me if I'm town. It's a better play for you as it might get a different townie lynched.

This is also just you trying to make things as suspicious when they aren't. Obviously I'd rather have you vote for one of my scum reads.

Regfan is doing what most scum do - trying to get read as town.

For example, his recent unvote of me about me being more genuine, and his teammates not thinking that's the case, that's an attempt to get on my good side after calling my post from teammates as in-genuine. His teammates reads giving the opposite opinion is making the read of me straddle the fence, and he could come back if other people were joining my wagon.

If Regfan is scum, he must have some sort of plan to win this game. Last White Flag he got nightkilled Night 1 with immaculate reads; you're already applying Burden of Proficiency apparently and it can only get worse from here if he continues to survive without winning us the game. Can you imagine a Day 5 where we just accept that Regfan is still alive?

And Zar's comment on you was good insight. Did that read as faked to you?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you look at a lot of Regfan's posts, his team differ with him on a lot of opinions/reads. This allows him to reverse his reads quite quickly if he wants to because 'he's following his team.' What do you make of this CES?

I think it would really look weird if Regfan just decided to follow his team. If you haven't noticed by now, he does rather highly rate his own scumhunting.

Note bolded. Where did this comment come from? Regfan had not yet posted claiming his use of town tokens.

Regfan didn't have to claim it for me to know it. His (otherwise very non-serious) inclusion on that scum list was also based on the idea that his absence up to that point made him slightly more likely to be scum based on his dislike for playing scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think it really is about time Cheery Dog got lynched. He hasn't made a credibly motivated vote all game and his last few posts are pretty much just mudslinging.

We can sort out the Aneninen/Psyche slot tomorrow.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Sotty's shutting me down on CES. She's firm on him being town and honestly I think this game is starting to confuse me to the point where I'm trying to see things that aren't there now.

Hard scum read on Cheery Dog, and that's what I really needed, for someone to confidentely put Cheery Dog into one category or another.

It's time to put old yeller out of his misery.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Cheery Dog

Huzzah! All aboard the Cheery Dogwagon!

What do you make of CD's recent stuff, my team aren't reading Post 842 and Post 847 as town as I am, Zar thinks his "BoP" argument doesn't make an ounce of sense with his admission of not knowing my play or meta at all and him fabricating reasoning to push on me, I don't think I agree with him; I don't see scum!CD thinking he'd be able to get away with that reasoning at all and would know I'm not getting ML'ed here but Zar thinks scum always "push against the grain" to seem town so he's not reading it as a town-tell at all. I've probably phrased this all terribly but really overall do you see what I am there?

This looks real to me (especially the experiential "push against the grain" point) and pretty unlikely to have been cooked up for some nefarious purpose. I mean, it's very easy to accuse someone of fencesitting whenever their position is more complex than "X is town" or "X is scum" but that doesn't seem tenable when there's a clear and genuine source of disagreement.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The second bit is in response to CD's 1049.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

When I played the other game with CES I linked in my list, the meta referenced was that he's easier to catch by eventually just looking at his play and not seeing a town mindset.

That sounds completely alien to me.

And that game was so dreadful. I just played badly and got tunneled by roflcopter even worse than Antihero is doing this game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Tammy, you're probably that there is some intensity missing from my play compared to what I used to have. That's part of why I stopped playing. Looking at this game, I know I'm taking all sorts of shortcuts - I'm not questioning my own reads enough; I'm intentionally not considering Regfanscum until he's survived one Night he shouldn't; I haven't looked at BBT's scum meta because everyone calls him town despite my gut niggles; I'm not thinking enough about Ank's claim of being bad at scum (even as I type this, I don't particularly want to do it); I got carried away with the Aeronautread because everything seemed to line up so nicely.

I used to think my play deteriorated because I had such a long town streak at the end of it but I realize now that the essential problem was probably that I started to rate my own reads highly enough that I didn't feel motivated to scrutinize them. Rekindling the spark is not going to be as easy as just playing another White Flag set-up but at least I'm definitely enjoying the company.

I still think I'm right about Cheery Dog though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm putting out what Gamma gave me. I don't personally care about the post, hence why I didn't quote it earlier.

Yeah but you gave a very different explanation for why it was supposed to be scummy initially? I don't think that works coming from Gamma either.

Is this seriously all you're going to chase my lynch on now?
If I'm acting mudslinging now, it's because YOU don't actually have any basis on your OWN reads still.

At the end of both Days you've found yourself on major wagons - the Day 1 vote simply has never been explained and the Day 2 vote seems to be mostly based on a dislike of the way I asked you about your Regfanvote. That's a really problematic pattern.

I also suspect you've literally never voted for scum this game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Maybe I'm making a mistake by not reading these (because I don't have time for them) and by thinking that the Aeronaut vote in the first post is more significant than the walls themselves.

Yarr. Oversoul's second wall was really solid.

Also, Cogito Ergo Sum, you asked about our team's opinion. There was a question from my predecessor whether Aeronaut might be scum. Wgeurts checked the Aeronaut-wagon and a couple of pages of the game and said something like "I don't know them personally but Regfan, Llamarable and CES look town, thus Aeronaut can be scum".
I don't think I've already reached the part of the game it's referring to, so I can't decide yet whether it's significant or not.

Did Espeonage or T-bone comment on that at all?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Good! We could definitely use some of your particular brand of whimsy!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Which wall do you mean? 437 or 441? Because, after I've caught up I'll read it if needed.

441. 437 is quite a bit more meandering and not as good.

What did you think of the ikawagon?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'd like some more posts and/or Cheery Dogvotes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think Tammys "He stopped to mention something from the team thread" point of Anen is a town-tell though given the sheer amount that CES has pushed him to post teams thoughts in the thread. In fact I'm slightly bugged by his "Wgeurts checked the Aeronaut-wagon and a couple of pages of the game and said something like "I don't know them personally but Regfan, Llamarable and CES look town, thus Aeronaut can be scum"." element in Post 1077 given that Psyches answer when I asked him in Post 680 whether they wanted him to join the wagon becasue a) They town-read people on the wagon or b) They thought the players on the wagon were competent and his answer in Post 681 was effectively b while Anen's is a.

It definitely reads to me as if Psyche was being loose with the truth, yes.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(2) Right now Ika looks very scummy, mostly because of the thing I mentioned in the recent catch-up, see (6). There are other things too, eg. (18) and some older things in my previous catch-ups. As for it's wagon, so far it has consisted of two names Today. If Page32–33 were the last page of the game I'd vote for him, but I need to see the remaining pages first.

I was talking about the ikawagon at the end of Yesterday.

Ika is looking very likely town. I assume you haven't played any games with ika but the way you're approaching reading him is all wrong.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Which hypothesis do you consider more likely: "Regfan and I are scum" OR "Cheery Dog is scum"?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ika, do you want to vote Cheery Dog?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've been assuming Regfan for most of the Day although Tammy getting nightkilled wouldn't surprise me too at the. They're both never getting lynched (Tammy looks more unlynchable right now but either a CheeryDogscumflip or me flipping town should put most Regfan suspicion to bed anyway), have solid reads and the ability to push through lynches. It's hard to say much more than that when I don't even know how this Day will end; I'd probably still guess Regfan currently.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Less than one day till deadline! There should be more people posting right now.

(8) CES's 714 – "

Aeronaut flipping town was an unpleasant surprise but it also makes Cheery Dog and Ankamius more likely to be scum and I don't see much reason to deviate from the course.

" – I don't understand this. Indeed, Cheery Dog and Ankamius are more likely to be scum, but (unless I missed something while catching up) not because of the Aeronaut flip. They're more likely because of the Llamar flip. See my previous catchup, (4)! It feels off.

Imagine you have three suspects in a game with 1 mafia: player A is 50% likely to be scum, player B is 40% likely and player C is 10% likely. If we lynch player A and they flip town, player B is now 80% likely and player C is 20%; that's how it works - when a suspicious player flips town, everyone else becomes more suspicious, but especially those you thought were already suspicious previously. But also very concretely, if Aeronaut had flipped scum, I would've had a much easier time coming up with scum teams that don't include one or both of Cheery Dog or Ankamius because I only need to come up with 2 names, whereas currently I definitely couldn't name a scum team that misses out both that wouldn't greatly surprise me. The 'marblekill I was already expecting, especially with Regfan's weird Antihero suspicion at the time, so that didn't give me much pause (although it was a nice sign I was on the right track).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm going to bed now.

I don't want this to be some last-minute thing where scum can get away with using the time pressure as an excuse to place whatever vote they want.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I had skipped ahead and saw Ank unvoted me, which made me think he really might end up being town after all, but then I read the actual pages.

The game's looking a lot less muddled now!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Huzzah!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

However much I disliked how close we got to deadline as it happened, I can appreciate it now that I'm looking back on it, knowing that Cheery Dog flipped town. All the toe-dragging looks very different now that we know the choice was between two town players. Scum had absolutely very little incentive to get involved in that fight while I don't understand how a townie could just let the Cheery Dog vs. me fight pass them by. People that look bad there are Aneninen, theelkspeaks and Ankamius (BBT also let the deadline pass by him a bit to some extent, but that's definitely a lower level of scumminess).

Ankamius, why did you unvote me and then just skedaddle? I don't see where that came from at all.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because my mind was a clusterfuck of being in my tunnel and adjusting my reads based on that entire engagement and I couldn't untangle it at the time.

What engagement? When I look back at those pages, you're talking quite casually, offering to be a conduit for mollie. You're barely talking about me, let alone express the sentiment that I might be town, so why the sudden unvote?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

When did he say that?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not really clear where you're getting the "basic thought process that you apparently feel scum was on both major wagons" from?

Also how did you come to the conclusion that scum would want to stay out of the Cheery vs Aero business while town would be more invested in it? I would expect scum to want to keep the status quo up and prevent complications from showing up to become either another possible wagon or increase the amount of info from the day.

I'm going to assume Cheery vs. Aero is supposed to be Cheery vs. me because I'm not sure what you're talking about otherwise. Day 1 didn't come that close to deadline.

The end of Day 2 felt pretty polarized in terms of it being either me or Cheery, so the only thing scum could do there was push a mislynch and look bad if their target flipped. That is inherently not attractive for scum and both theelkspeaks and Aneninen seem like players that might shy away from that as scum; on the other hand, as town, Yesterday felt like it could be really important and especially before Tammy and ika voted Cheery Dog, it felt like elk's and Aneninen's votes could have been crucial to getting scum lynched.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

ces: why do you think tammy died of regfan like you predicted

I'm not fully sure. Ank made it clear he thought she was the better kill yesterday. But the Cheery Dog townflip changed things significantly anyway. If you want to get me mislynched, killing Tammy lets people keep pushing the Regfan-CES nonsense (which can also let you delegitimize Regfan's reads at the same time).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Regfan's side of the engagement was town, and it feels really weird to me when I think about you being scum with a full PoE list alongside two other town (cheery dog being town because scum vs scum wagons look bleh), the amount of resistance to the D1 townbloc overall feels off.

I don't get how you got Cheery Dog being town out of any of that. It seems to like most of your reasoning for thinking the Cheery Dogwagon was bad was based on your suspicion of me and Regfan. If you change your mind on me, how do you not go to thinking Cheery Dog is scum? He was even pushing 'marble too D1, so fits in with your point about the resistance to the D1 townbloc.

I had assumed you were talking about the day one lynches since both of them are now confirmed.

What do you make of Aneninen's catchup reads then?

The second biggest wagon at the end of Day 1 was on ika, not Cheery.

I didn't like Aneninen's catch-up reads as I read them - he often seemed to be noting weirdness more than anything else and his approach on me (and Cheery too, knowing now that he is town) felt more like he was trying to set up a future vote than a legitimate interest in my alignment. I'm interested to see how he'll play (and whom he'll vote!) now he's no longer catching up.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES you were wrong on 2 ofyour 3, iirc you suspected BBT would be next in your list, do you oppose his lynch if so why?

My plan Today firstly is to take a closer look at every one of {BlueBloodedToffee, theelkspeaks, Aneninen, Ankamius}. BBT's continued suspicion of ika certainly doesn't reflect well on him.

Well, I mean, why would I reevaluate my scum reads when I have no reason to do so?

Because a lot has happened since you started pushing me for not fully posting my progression on Aeronaut in the thread?

I mean, this just exemplifies perfectly what I am saying. I pushed for the CES lynch and yet I am a 'non presence'. I suspect this is more to do with our disagreement on reads and therefore you not paying much attention to what I am saying more than anything else because to say I'm a non presence is ridiculous.

You have been posting and pushing less since your vote on me (~2 posts per page after vs. ~4 posts per page before). If you think you've caught scum in me, then that's a weird pattern.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aneninen, who do you think you would've voted for Yesterday if you'd been around near deadline?

Why are you spoiling your Ankamius stuff if you think he's scum?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because of the length of my post.

That is the obvious surface level explanation, yes. But if you think Ank is scum, then you must also think that what you spoilered was *important*. I'm not really feeling a desire to push scum and get them lynched (either in this or in your comments about Yesterday's deadline situation).

So. Do you think Tammy got killed because the scums want you to get mislynched?

Ika already asked me why I thought Tammy got nightkilled. It depends somewhat on Ank's alignment but certainly the option to paint Regfan as my buddy seems like a pretty solid reason to kill Tammy over Regfan (both in diminishing the impact of Regfan and being able to smear me).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, why doesn't my sustained suspicion on ika reflect well on me? Are you saying I should not lynch/push/vote someone I think is scum just because nobody agrees with me? Or is it because he is your buddy and you don't want me pushing that line of thought?

Mostly because I think he's town and your unwavering suspicion in the face of everything.

Also, can you state the difference in my pursuit of ika as opposed to say, your pursuit of CD? I mean, you thought he was scum throughout D1 and D2 yet he flipped town, this doesn't reflect badly on you though, right?

I think it does reflect badly on me but obviously to what degree it does is fairly subjective. Although you also agreed that Cheery Dog didn't look town.

Also, I disagree that a lot has happened. What has happened that should effect my reads on you and ika? Tell me.

What about Ank unvoting me with the deadline nearing or elk and Anen's deadline no-show? I think plenty of things have happened that look more suspicious than me having an explanation that you don't fully buy.

I don't see anything to change my mind, only further reasons for why you're scum.

What are those further reasons?

Is this shit actually serious? Do you know how frustrating it is to truly believe you have found scum and have nobody fucking listen? Like, my biggest town reads are generally not on the same wave length as me and I'm just getting pissed off with it.

Yeah, I'm becoming demotivated to play this fucking game. So what?

I looked like a plausible lynch for most of that time; you could've tried convincing theelkspeaks and Aneninen (they both even ended up on ika come deadline).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, I keep forgetting: Ankamius, can you give me an overview of your current reads?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I haven't liked Ank's votes for most of the game but you're going to have to explain what you're seeing, elk.

How does that make sense at all? I don't want to lynch Ankamius because ...I put my case into a Spoiler? As if I had never used spoilers for long posts in any other games.

If you spoiler it, people might not read it (or fail to read it again when looking back). So yes, if you want to get Ankamius lynched, I don't get why you'd hide your case behind a spoiler.

Walk me through your thought process how you get to 1405 from 1138.

I already point out what's changed in 1405.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I see. So you're suspicious of me because I'm scum reading someone you're town reading. That seems kind of dumb.

I think the way you've been scum reading who I think is a town is a point against you.

How is a deadline no show alignment indicative? Sometimes, life gets in the way of a game of mafia. Is Ank's unvote supposed to somehow be alignment indicative? If so, how?

Townies generally want to influence the game and lynch scum; elk and Aneninen both knew when deadline would be and what their choices were; I can't imagine just letting deadline pass by and let the rest of the game make that decision for me. Ank's unvote is a more extreme example of that since he was actually here but actively chose to limit his own influence.

CD being a counter-wagon to you. Clearly scum driven.

What about it makes it "clearly scum driven"?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I did take a look at his meta yesterday and my main impression was that this game didn't really match anything I saw. It's hard to judge him on the singer game anyway because he posted in the mafia PT that he was doing a "too scummy to be scum" thing on Day 1.

My main problems with BBT are 1) that he seems to have outright stopped looking for scum - if he thinks I'm scum, how does he see Ank's D2 unvote as so insignificant; when asked to give further reasons for his scum read on me, all he could give was that the Cheery was "clearly" a scum-driven counterwagon; and just a generic lack of probing in particular with regards to his most likely scum partners elk, Anen and Ankamius - and 2) his push on me lacks the strength of conviction - see the interaction here (1053-1057) when there were 4 votes on me 4 days to deadline and he already seems to give up on getting me lynched in his second post of Day 3.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It would be informative to see how he'd play Tomorrow though if we lynch Aneninen and he flips scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Regarding CD being a scum driven wagon, that should be pretty clear. You're scum, CES. Scum obviously didn't want your lynch to happen, CD was a great counter-wagon and probably the easiest mis-lynch to push for scum as well. The fact all of my scum reads ended up on the CD wagon just reinforces my theory further. I have serious trouble believing both leading wagons were on town for pretty much the whole DP.

So your further reason for me being scum is mostly that I'm scum and that Regfan (who is suspicious because he could be my partner) voted CD. And Cheery Dog wasn't a leading wagon at any point except the end Yesterday.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In VC 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 1.05...all the way through to VC 1.20 your vote sits on Cheery Dog. Doesn't move once.

What happens after that? That's right, your sudden jump onto the Aero wagon with no read progression at all (oh wait, that's right, it happened outside of the thread)

I didn't really care that much who my vote was on early on because I wanted to keep Day 1 going so I could talk with 'marble and Regfan and try to do enough scumhunting together to give us a good chance of winning the game before any of us died. That's why my vote didn't move and that's why I placed a "sudden" vote on Aeronaut. I think I made my approach to the game fairly obvious so your complaint is still as empty as it was previously.

CES needs lynching. The fact he continued this trend of scum-reading CD for most (all?) of D2 and finally lynched him and then has the cheek to call my reads static is downright ridiculous.

I haven't gone after you for having static reads because I don't think that's inherently all that interesting; I certainly had static reads last White Flag mafia. My problem is mainly with your play since voting for me; the fact that your reads have been fairly static since does reflect some of those problems but that's not what I'm attacking.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're acting like I need more reasons to scum read you. I have reasons and I have stated them.

This is how the convo went:
BBT: [...] and I have further reasons.
CES: What are those?
BBT: CDwagon was clearly scum-driven.
CES: Why is that?
BBT: Because you're scum.

Stop pretending you have reason

s

; you have one reason and it's not very good.

Hmm, I don't get Ankamius' unvote late D2.

Like, it doesn't make sense from either alignment. I initially thought that maybe he was scum with CES but he unvotes after CD becomes the leading wagon (which he wouldn't need to do to save his buddy from being lynched). Also, VCA aside, I don't see scum motivation in Ank's posting.

CES, what is the scum motivation behind Ank unvoting? I know you said townies want to influence the lynch at the end of the day; anything else? Because it makes no sense to me..

I didn't claim Ank's unvote was definitely scummy. That was my initial impulse but I've been trying to sort out why he did it - he's claiming he thought both me and Cheery Dog were town, which although true, seems like a peculiar thing for town to have been thinking (whereas scum know it's true).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You didn't claim it was 'definitely' scummy, haha. Now starts the backtracking.

What do you think this conversation was about? Me convincing you Ank is scum? I'm trying to sort out your alignment. Ank's unvote is the most obvious example of something that seems quite alignment-indicative, something that is revealing about Ank's inner workings and something that you ignored all together and I had to push you to look at multiple times before you did.

Ank, I still want your reads specifically.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aneninen also makes a lot of sense as partner to either elk or BBT.

Ank, so you no longer think the Cheery Dog was scum-driven?

Regfan, I gave you a thought-out response and everything and you just disappeared on me. Don't make me doubt your town read on you, please.

Elk, what prompted you to look at the mod iso?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

ces why are you not voting?

Because I don't want to lynch anyone right now. It feels like we're at a stage where the suspect pool is sufficiently pared down and scum have strong incentives for certain plays that I should be able to make sense of this game. It'd also definitely be nice if we got more than two posts out of elk.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mostly on a whim, I thought it might be useful to see the progression of votes over time, and it turned out some interesting thoughts.

When? During the Night?

What do you think of Ank unvoting me near the end of Yesterday? What do you think of the Cheery Doglynch?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Checked. No parallel activity from him at all. Therefore, his absence is a null-tell.

If he was posting elsewhere, I would lynch him posthaste. Regfan did once just stop posting while hydraing with me as scum and I can see him being less motivated than normal as scum in this situation.

By the way, if I'm correct, CD spent a token for scum and flipped town. Is this piece of information worth anything useful now?

If you spend a single token, there's about a 60% chance that it does nothing. Unless we think 4+ people spent scum tokens on this game, that is what happened.

Appeal_to_Authority
Being experienced is not a proof for not being survivalist.

1) That's not actually an appeal to authority since my experience is relevant and 2) he's obviously making a valid point.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Are you actually accusing ika based on comparing him to just a scum game of his? That's the scummiest use of meta I've seen in a long time.

P-edit: yes, yes and yes (do I seem like the type that would freak out?).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If he had flipped town there, I would have had a bit of

town

meta on him that I can use and I would have start thinking about "what if I'm wrong?"

It's utterly trivial for you to find some ikatown meta and look at it.

Instead of scummily implying that ika is scum like so:

Also, what's with your hammers? Hammered twice in Matrix 14...

you could've considered that the way ika's going about it makes it unlikely to be an ikascum thing or you could've looked at almost any ikatown game and found out that it was so. It's not even like his hammer this game was problematic, so this is the only way you could make it seem scummy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you're scum, you should just bus your buddies. They'll understand.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(Especially since Aero expressed that because of being away he might post more later... well, that never could happen.)

Do you really believe this, Anen?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yes.
I've already seen scums shutting down a Day so as to prevent someone from posting.
Check out Aeronaut's last post. He asked for more time and promised that he would post more later.

Do any of Aero's previous posts suggest that as a plausible scum motive? Do you really think ika, if he was scum, was motivated by that?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I can easily imagine a scum hammering a townie before they post their detailed reads.

By writing "scum" instead of "ikascum" and "a townie" rather than "Aeronaut", you're hiding behind generalities. I literally asked you to try and apply your theoretical point to the actual game. I would've expected ika to hammer regardless of his alignment and I don't think Aeronaut's reads would've made a meaningful impact given his posting history this game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So, are you saying that I should think that it's NOT an alignment tell about Ika that he voted, unvoted and hammered a player he hadn't been talking about before?
Why do you think that Aeronaut wouldn't have posted anything useful later?

No, it was blindingly obvious that Aeronaut was getting lynched. Like I expressed at the time, I felt people were taking too long to fall in line rather than there being any grand opportunism. And Aeronaut hadn't posted anything useful up to that point and didn't seem to be caught up.

Also, it seems that whenever I post about Ika you grab a piece out of my case so as to explain me that I'm wrong. His hammer is not the only thing why I have a scumread on him.
But, I'm asking you once again: show me the town motivation behind Ika's posts.

I imagine you can write most of the things you pointed out about ika in most games ika plays. When I read his posts, his tone reads quite genuine and when he has talked to me, it's just generally felt like there was town motivation behind it (e.g. 946 and 953). So my main interest in your ikacase have been the bits where you've felt the scummiest.

P-edit: ika, BBT dropped the Regfanscumread a while ago like a hot potato.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The fact that he went the whole weekend without really posting (it's half one in Sydney now) definitely troubles now. I'm sure he does some have RL issues but this seems like the time where he'd be most motivated to post if he's town and least motivated to post if he's scum (especially if his partners look legitimately scummy to him). With the way this Day is gone, the Tammynightkill also feels less obvious but I probably shouldn't assign that much too weight.

The possibility of Regfan being scum also makes me think worse of elk based on the way 'marble and I interacted with Regfan re: elk.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, Anen didn't mention this

Does that mean you agree with Aneninen's case?

Also, I asked you some questions:

Mostly on a whim, I thought it might be useful to see the progression of votes over time, and it turned out some interesting thoughts.

When? During the Night?

What do you think of Ank unvoting me near the end of Yesterday? What do you think of the Cheery Doglynch?

Bonus questions: do you think Ank's less scummy now? Did you think ika was scummy previously?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Please answer my questions from 1583, elk.

(You can skip the last one.)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I imagine you can write most of the things you pointed out about ika in most games ika plays. When I read his posts, his tone reads quite genuine and when he has talked to me, it's just generally felt like there was town motivation behind it (e.g. 946 and 953). So my main interest in your ikacase have been the bits where you've felt the scummiest.

What's the town motivation behind 946 and 953?
Yet again, your basic point why my Ika-read is bad is the fact that you're scumreading me. Isn't that a bit biased? Don't you have any other scumreads, by the way?

946 is at a time when I was the biggest wagon and he clearly tries to communicate his view of the game and make me see things in a different light. 953 is encouraging me to do something which he considers to be pro-town.

I don't get how you get that second bit out of what I wrote. I'm not interested in your ikacase from the perspective of "is ika scum?" because I think the case is boring and I think ika is town independently, so my only interest in your ikacase is from the perspective of "is aneninen scum?".

If I didn't have other scum reads, Anen, I'd be voting you. If Regfan finally shows up, hopefully he'll restore my town read on him and the two of us can hash things out.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES what your current presumption on the scum team and why?

whats your take on regfan not being dead btw?

I was thinking BBT-elk-Aneninen (with some allowance for Regfan-elk-Aneninen in that lynching elk-Aneninen wins the game with either scum team) mostly based on PoE (you, Zach and Antihero look seriously town; BBT, elk and Aneninen look notably scummy, Ank somewhat scummy) and the interactions between them (I think scum are fairly unlikely to bus today if they can avoid it and the slots generally haven't interacted much + other stuff).

But the recent wagon on you has given me pause - not because all three are on it, I could even see that as intentional, but because there simply isn't the support for you to get lynched over Aneninen so I can't help but feel scum are happy to see Aneninen gets lynched here. BBT-elk with Ank or Regfan as a third? Ank is scummier but Regfan's had partner interactions with elk while elk pushed Ank Today (although there was a definite vibe at the end of Yesterday that Ank was definitely scum and at that point, for a BBT-elk-Ank scum team, the worry would certainly be keeping elk alive after that).

As I said previously, right now I see Regfan's non-death as pointing to one of BBT/regfan being scum.

P-edit: this I don't mind seeing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Going to be reading up and doing some ISO's but if you want me to focus on anything in particular let me know now.

I would definitely like you to comment on the view of the game I just expounded upon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I assume me and Regfan. We've played together a bunch of times, most notably the previous White Flag game where we, along with Zach and singer, wiped the floor with the scumbags. I respect his scumhunting and I'm pretty sure he respects mine; and playing town's most fun when you're talking to people and it feels like both sides are really listening to each other and cooperating to get scum lynched.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So yeah, what am I missing; why do you think Anen-BBT or Anen-Ank work as a team and can you think of anyone that works as a third in an Anen-Elk scum-team?

I felt Anen and BBT were playing pretty nice to each other Today up until Anen's recent BBTvote. I think scum should have much clearer motivations, so that's what I feel is most informative w.r.t. interactions. But I'm leaning towards BBT-elk-Ank right now. Do you agree with my reasoning on the ikawagon?

Also uh, you don't really think my play here even remotely resembles how I lurk as scum do you? You're going to have to explain that bit to me (Even if just to shut Mina up as Mina messaged me saying she thinks your stance on me as of late kind of comes across as you attempting to spin me as being scummy and thinks I might be getting primed for a mslynch), I don't think that's so likely since I don't think you'd think you can even mslynch me even on a bad town game of mine. I've only been gone 3-4 days max over something that was sadly unavoidable, think it's fairly obvious that I'm dedicating whatever time I can in-thread and spending as much time out of it trying to analyse the game - level of depth/detail in my town v scum play is p obvious really.

I feel very comfortable with my town read on you whenever you post. It probably is just paranoia and not being 100% with any of my theories that makes me worry whenever you disappear and aren't being a force of good in this good (and if your partners were elk and Anen, this is awkward situation for you as scum).

What are the asterisks for by the bye? Have to go now for lunch now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Elks vote on Ank in that situation when the counterwagon (Anen) being town in that scenario doesn't make much sense as scum unless he was going for distancing but that's a p large risk to take and not something I think a scum-team of Ank-Elk would do there if they've got an easy ML lined up in Anen at the time

I feel like this point isn't as strong given that if elk is scum, his attack on Ank was definitely prepared ahead of time. I don't think Today's wagon on Anen would've been obvious during the Night.

I can kind of see where you're coming from with the "Ika wagon coming up means that Anen has a decent chance of being town" but I don't really agree? I think BBT votes on Ika is something he's forced into doing regardless of his alignment given the sheer amount of times he's stated he's got a scum-read on Ika and wants a wagon there, the Anen vote and I can see a situation where a scum-team of Elk-Anen think their best chance of a ML is using someone like BBTs vote on Ika to drag up a wagon there.

If Elk-Anen were the only scum, then it'd make a good amount of sense. But it feels pretty weird if BBT's the third (even weirder now that Anen is voting BBT). I guess Elk-Anen-Ank is still a fair possibility. A pre-planned Ank-Anen fight to start the Day, based on the presumption that they'd both be lynch suspects, that then sort of dissipated as no wagon on Ank turned up. Elk's vote for Ank does slot very neatly into that narrative.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I really would've guessed the Open would've been more hotly contested. Guess that was a wasted token.

And your point about Anen voting BBT is pretty valid.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Was the 13p Normal your #1 choice, Zach? Because if so, both your team and Regfan's team could've ended up in Vanilla Nightless and White Flag to make sure those games were filled.

That's the only explanation I can think of (except mod error) and then Regfan would have to be lying about the order even if his team had spent a token (since his team would've gotten the Mini Normal over the Open), so if the 13p Normal was your #1, that's definitely what happened.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't think that's something you have to worry about, Zach.

(you, Zach and Antihero look seriously town; BBT, elk and Aneninen look notably scummy, Ank somewhat scummy)

Those are my reads independent of partnership considerations, BBT, where "you" is ika and I'm now also fairly convinced Regfan is town.

Not a big fan of reads that contain a whole lot of 'ifs' and 'buts'.

'Ifs' and 'buts' are what you get if you're actually trying to find the scum team rather than cram anything you find into a CES/ika-shaped hole.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vote: theelkspeaks

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Antihero here's a question then: Why was Zachrulez killed and not you?

probably because he listed regfan as scum and was part of the townbloc.

I'm pretty sure Zach would've voted elk Today. Literally everyone who has been nightkilled, have been people that were willing to work with Regfan and me. That's not a coincidence!

i will ADDITIONALLY point out that this is the point where CES took notice and counterattacked TTH. this is what i called the point where he shat his pants.

Tammy already told you how deluded this was. You've taken a perfectly reasonable question I asked Regfan and imagined some utterly fantastical tale.

there's also the fact anen had EVERY FUCKING EXCUSE to sheep his oh-so-strong townreads onto the CES wagon but he didn't do it AND HE EVEN LISTED CES AS SCUM HIMSELF

He also listed Cheery Dog as scum and yet he voted neither, because there were two townies on offer and he'd risk looking bad either way.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

pedit: i like how CES was shouting annen/BBT all day yesterday and insteads open with elk (@bbt doesnt that giv eyou pause at least?)

I spent a good amount of time Yesterday probing elk and elk does make most sense as Aneninen's partner out of anyone.

Although BBT's desire to lynch ika and then me looks bad too, right now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Elk's posts near the D2 deadline and his vote to start D3 reeks of scum preplanning. Elk and Aneninen both had barely justified town reads on each other D3.

P-edit: it was a weak point by 'marble.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Aneninen literally doesn't have a post after your context.

no, he did not. he hemmed and hawed on cheery dog. this had nothing to do with looking bad or not looking bad because not taking a side at all was going to "look bad" but what would've been even worse for him would be if he bussed you for nothing.

He had set it up well enough that he could vote for Cheery Dog. The thing that characterizes the end of Day 2 is the obvious lack of interest a bunch of people had in determining the outcome of the Day even though there was a clear fight between me and Cheery Dog. It's because we were both town.

P-edit: some degree of competence doesn't change the fundamental issue of motivation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Elk's posts near the D2 deadline and his vote to start D3 reeks of scum preplanning.

elk's posts at the beginning of day 1, especially cooperating with TTH to vote a scumbag, do NOT reek of scum preplanning.

Which is why I thought he was town at the time. I don't think it holds up to his D2 disappearing act, let alone to the scummy things he's done since then.

not a weak point by TTH, though.

who you subsequently went after in the most passive-aggressive way possible.

Can you stop with your deluded pretense that anyone cared about tth? She had 12 posts!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

yeah, why would he post? you weren't getting lynched.

So why didn't BBT post? Why didn't elk post?

Because they literally didn't care who got lynched.

downplaying NK analysis.

Marble, Tammy and Zach wouldn't be voting me here. The people I can work with and reason with, are the ones getting nightkilled. THIS IS NOT A COINCIDENCE.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

and if you DIDN'T CARE SO MUCH then why did you go out of your way to shoot down townreads on her?

Regfan literally asked me to comment on his reads.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

nah, but they might have voted regfan

'marble and Tammy both had Regfan as town. I think Zach would've voted elk. But you're ignoring the point that every nightkill has diminished my influence and Regfan's influence by taking away people that we can reason with.

I would bank that the only reason Reg is alive is because he has been solidly town reading both you and ika all game long and doesn't reconsider his position at all.

So did Zach.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

well elk has graduated to lurker at this point so asking why he was absent in a narrow 24 hour window on a weekend is pretty laughable.

i don't know maybe bbt was out wrestling a platypus or something. i don't know what he does with his weekends.

It's not about activity. Elk's deadline behaviour was purely some vague talk of ISOs; BBT's deadline behaviour is this lame-as-fuck interaction (1353-1357) with elk and arguing dumb stuff with Tammy - not the behaviour of someone who wants to get me lynched.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's so very strange that you don't find it weird Reg is still alive on D4 (you know, given his reputation and all)

Llamarble has the same reputation and he was more active D1, so that nightkill I saw coming. I did think it weird D3 but you being scum is an equally good explanation for Tammy being nightkilled. And I'm not too surprised scum didn't want to give Antihero a chance to change his mind.

P-edit: whoops, that should've been 1053-1057

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

no you're confusing "the nightkills" with "the people you pushed kept flipping town." that's what diminished your influenced on all the people you didn't have a rapport with. it's not like many of them suspect you anyway. bbt and i suspect you and everyone else is caught up in an ika circlejerk so it's not like "influence" is a precious commodity for you two anyway.

That's why my scum team kept the two of you alive instead, I guess. We had too much influence so we shot people who townread us.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Haha.

You're right. I didn't push you at all. I probably should have been on your wagon at that point as well...oh wait...

I've pointed it out before and I'll point it out again: at some point the majority of people were voting for either me or ika. There were enough people there that supported the nonsense you were pushing but you didn't care.

Unvote, vote: BBT

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Regfan, I would still vote elk. I'm willing to stake this game on it being elk-BBT; BBT's trying to do exactly what he needs to do to win the game, which is take advantage of the good position he is in right now to get his second mislynch in ika before circling back to me Tomorrow. How else is he going to avoid an elklynch?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You're acting like my reads on you and ika have just materialized toDay to try and support your theory that you're trying to push. Like, I'm scum reading you and ika just to avoid elk being lynched. You see how silly you look proposing this, right?

I'm clearly referring to your choice to push ika today. Although I don't think it is at all accidental that you've got these tunnely reads on me and ika; that was always going to give you the option of not going after your scum buddies.

This "crush your meta" thing seems completely incoherent.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's not like I've lynched scum this game... (the only lynch I've been on I might add)

You had no interest in that wagon until it had become very obvious that Anen was getting lynched. This is classic scum trying to claim credit for a scum lynch he played little part in.

I see that 'static reads' has changed to 'tunnely'. Is that an attempt to discredit my reads further after you realised that saying reads are static is a scum tell was pretty bad?

I'm calling them tunnely because that's what relevant; you've put yourself in a position where you can outright refuse to vote for your scum buddy because you're so "convinced" that me and ika are scum and where you don't even have to engage the arguments for your scum buddy being scum.

You have no comment on Ika thinking we're a scum team? Like, no comment on that ridiculous statement at all?

I'd rather focus on what scum is doing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It was far from obvious that Anen was getting lynched. You realise that I left the joint leading wagon (Ika) to vote Anen, right? Like, you saw that happen.

I had absolutely no reason whatsoever to bus there if I was scum.

Aneninen had already unvoted, so that's not even technically true. The ikawagon was dead; Regfan had already promised his vote to the Aneninenwagon and I was also in favour of it. It was really obvious.

Again I don't think BBT-Anen / BBT-Psyche interaction (I'll grab some links when it's not 3am) works as partners ergo I don't think BBTs scum here, the fact that I brought this fact up yesterday yet you switched so quickly from Elk->BBT isn't something I like at all.

I looked at the BBT-Psyche interaction. I agree there's not a good scum motivation for Psyche's actions, but it's not that uncommon for a mafioso to attack a buddy unduly (and the way he did was consistent with that type of attack). Plus, I don't really see how we're supposed to lynch elk here without Ankamius' help, so voting for Elk doesn't cover more bases.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Come on, Regfan. Look at how BBT pushed ika Today, talking about "crushing his meta" to try and spin the fact that ika's play fits his town play into something in favour of an ikalynch. Look at how he's claiming credit for voting Aneninen. And consider on how little his supertunnely scum read on me is based. Look at the BBT-elk interactions. Antihero's point about Aneninen's liking to bus. Why can't you see that BBT makes a lot of sense as scum here?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

My scum read of you has been very well explained and in detail. You can keep trying to discredit it by pretending I don't have a case but that doesn't make it true.

Yes, you think my vote for Aeronaut was bad. It's not nothing but doesn't come close to justifying the way you've been tunneling me. Anti's read on me, however frustrating some of his reasons are, has a fullness to it yours doesn't come close to.

Anen was bussing Ika until it looked like Ika would be lynched. Then he jumped off. That was what pointed to Anen being scum for me. It's another reason that Ika is scum.

I literally wrote a post based on the fact the support for the ikawagon clearly wasn't there at the same time Anen voted for you. The ikawagon was dead when he jumped off.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

This most certainly is not my only reason for thinking you're scum.

Well then maybe this time you can mention some of them, unlike the last time we went down this road.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

835-931 is just Aerostuff.

1416, 1447, 1451 is the claim that CD was a counterwagon, which when pressed you justified by the fact that you thought I was scum.

1479 is you falsely claiming I called your reads static.

1483 just doesn't have any reasons.

1486 is VCA so inherently void of any content.

1502-1505 is you reading some weird meaning into me asking you about Ank's unvote. I asked you about Ank's unvote because Ank's unvote was inherently interesting and it should've interested you if you were town.

You can't hide behind a wall of quotes. There's no substance behind your tunnel.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's the Day before LyLo, Regfan strongly thinks you're scum, BBT has unvoted ika and that's the only thing you're drawn to comment on?

VCA is nonsense.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

BBT, give me one reason that's not Aero for why ika-me makes more sense than ika-elk.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I just gave you a tonne of reasons for why I think you're scum and instead of responding you chose to try and discredit everything I said instead.

Most of what you quoted was directed, so I had already engaged with it. It also includes the stuff about "static reads" when I just literally hadn't said that (it was Zach who said it).

What point in there do you actually want me to respond to?

Are you saying ika/elk makes sense as a team?

I kind of forgot that elk was pushing ika. It makes sense apart from that.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well it was complete bullshit. I'm trying to decide whether to switch to you or stay on ika, because I think it's you two right now.

But I was mostly hoping to make you actually respond to the VCA instead of just dismissing it.

You had Ank as #2 two days ago? You're not bothered by his absence?

I will quote for you my stance on VCA:

VCA has always just been the fallacious reasoning of taking a reasonable position such as "there is an average amount of scum on this wagon", combining that with information from the flips, then resolutely ignore the fact that this new information changes how reasonable your original position and pretend it's still likely to be true. E.g. if you're playing a newbie and everybody on a certain wagon but player A flipped town, then player A isn't 69% likely to be scum; the fact that everybody else flipped town is very strong evidence in favour of the fact that that wagon might've actually been all town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I mean, the argument is essentially that I saw the same things as Zach, Regfan and Tammy and since they're town, I must be scum. Because scum definitely couldn't be lurking (you/Anen) or pushing a different townie (BBT).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

?

If you mean my comment on ika-elk, I meant that more in terms of their interactions (obviously, I didn't think this part through very carefully) and how the game has progressed. Town pushing town D1 and D2 makes much more sense if one scumbag was being generally read as town (which I think is you, but you could think is ika) and 2 scum were lurking in the background (elk/Psyche).

I also didn't mind the possibility that if you were somehow town, I could've swayed you to voting elk.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The way you've been tunneling me based on the Aeronaut stuff; your continued insistence that you do have more reasons; starting this Day pushing ika; your interactions with Aneninen Yesterday; you claiming credit for the Aneninenlynch; your interactions with elk; the lack of conviction at the end of D2.

2 of those do rely on elkscum but if elk is town, then that would narrow down my suspect pool so much that you'd be even more likely to be scum. I've probably also forgotten at least one reason.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I've talked about most of those things already and some of them definitely have fairly clear scum motivations - I'm not going to do your busy work. If you have actual questions, I'll answer them.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

holy shit, it's elk/bbt isn't it?

Yep.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES is practically tunneling on elk being scum and trying to force the wagon through.

You know I'm voting BBT, right?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If no one feels like talking, we could just lynch BBT or elk?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ank's vote for elk gives me a little pause but on the whole I don't really see him approach an elkvote in this convoluted way if he's partnered with BBT.

Elk coming in and just pushing ika when there are 3 non-ika people voting him on a crucial Day (when he's expressed previous suspicion of Ank) also helps.

So I'm going to do what I've wanted ever since I woke up and caught up with the game.

===========[}
{]===========

Vote: theelkspeaks

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Okay.

I think it's BBT-Ank. Purely from a scumhunting perspective, I'd probably support an Ank-lynch most out of those two (it's clearly not BBT-ika; Regfan does seem a bit protective of BBT but I don't even think it's more likely than Ank-ika and lynching Ank also covers Ank-Regfan). But that probably relies on a potential BBTtown to consider Ank-ika seriously, which is probably not realistic. So, if I'd vote right now, which I won't, because it's unquestionably better to take our time and agree on a lynch before placing any votes, I would vote BBT.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

[quote="In post 1996, BlueBloodedToffee]
Ank, what do you make of CES refusing to choose between these two wagons for the whole of D3?[/quote]
That's even scummier nonsense than you claiming credit for the Anenlynch. My position on the ikawagon was perfectly clear and there was never any worry that it would actually go through; I saw no reason to rush the ikalynch.

BBT, are you genuinely claiming that you can't imagine a reason why scum would keep a town ika alive? There's a really obvious motive if you're town.

It's also silly to claim the Antiherokill points to me - if I were scum, I kill him the previous Night, just after he's spearheaded the Anenlynch; I certainly don't kill Zach, make a big deal about looking at the nightkills and then kill him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ika, why do you think Ank is town?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's not scummy to want credit for that. I want credit for how well I have played in this game when it's all over. I have played the perfect game so far.

Tunneling townies and failing to get them lynched is not exactly a novel scum technique.

Tell me CES, if I was scum with Anen; why would I leave the ika wagon to join the Anen wagon? The ika wagon I had been pushing for no less than 2 game days. It makes no sense for me to bus in that situation, at all. All I had to do, as scum, was sit on ika.

The Aneninenlynch was inevitable; I had pretty much pointed out this exact thing even before Aneninen unvoted ika; there was no downside to your move, it gave you a chance to score some brownie points and it allows you to engage in this pedantic scorekeeping where I was happy with the Anenlynch for most of the Day whilst you kept pushing townies and somehow you're making out that my behaviour is scum-motivated.

Yes, I cannot imagine why scum would keep an almost universally town read person alive. It makes no sense at all. Care to explain that one for me?

Scum literally just need a single wrong vote Today. If you were town and ika was town, scum would absolutely want to keep alive two impulsive townies that think the other is scum.

No, you kill him when he is longer of use to you. He was no doubt coming for you toDay; no doubt at all.

I think Yesterday would've gone much easier without Antihero pushing me-Regfan for most of the Day. Can you really say with a straight face that Antihero being alive Yesterday over Zach was beneficial to me? If I was scum, it was a perfect opportunity to get rid of Antihero without drawing suspicion.

Tell me, if I'm scum, why the fuck do I kill Anti when I know he will join me in lynching you?

Because he was obviously town and probably most importantly, you had to kill someone. If you kill ika, then that raises the question of why scum didn't want the BBT-ika conflict. Everyone else has varying degrees of suspicion on them.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No CES, if I was tunneling I couldn't have lynched scum now, could I?

This is what I meant when I said pedantic scorekeeping.

You had no way of knowing Anti would be pushing that angle Yesterday. This point is worth even less when Anti then jumps on the elk/BBT train.

Why risk it? Antihero pushing me Yesterday could've straight-up lost me the game if I were scum. Zach would've been perfectly willing to vote elk.

I think Anti being dead toDay is beneficial to you. Hugely so.

Anti being gone does make me less likely to be mislynched, yes. After the elkflip I was quite pessimistic about Town's chances but I grew quite a bit more optimistic when I realized that scum would have to upset the status quo by killing someone.

Who cares about suspicion? If I'm scum, I only need Anti's vote on you and then me and my buddy hammer you, right? So, again, why do I kill Anti as scum?

But you had to kill someone. And anyone else dying would've looked really weird.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ika, why do you think Ank is town?

before i answer something that should be obvious, why is he scum?

Probably the most important thing is just that I think you and Regfan are town. The way he acted w.r.t. elk Yesterday (first being unwilling to engage with Regfan's CES-elk stuff, however weak it was, and then just voting elk like that); his play Yesterday also generally felt fairly lacklustre, even taking into account the migraine, the mollie-thing end of Day 2 also points against him and a recurring pattern where he talks about team mates' reads and doesn't really engage the game (the "all major wagons (Psyche, elk, ika) so far were on town"-thing on D1 being the main example).

I'm feeling more and more inclined to vote BBT though, so I'm not sure how much it matters.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

This just occured to me: BBT thinks ika is scum who's widely townread, that there was a genuine possibility that ika would get lynched over Aneninen on D3 and yet he's accusing me of sitting back and letting that happen as scum. But if it's me-ika, I'd obviously much prefer to keep the widely townread partner alive. His view of the game doesn't make sense.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

In this set-up, I would argue scum would be extremely reluctant to bus.

And you're arguing that this extends to a situation where both lynch options are scum? I don't even get why I'd be reluctant to bus if I got ika as a buddy. You're hiding behind a general principle with zero regard for whether it applies to the situation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why would you disagree with any of that? Tunneling blindly on ika and me seems right up your alley.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

you guys can wall post ech other to the end of time you you guys can throw doan and vote each ohter and force a 1v1

It's tempting but I don't really want to rush other people into voting.

If you don't want to read our wall posts, #2012-2015 and the fact that Titus' VCA takes you-me as its starting point should still tell you plenty.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Whoops, that was me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I don't get it.

You have two accounts on the same team?

No, we live together.

That's the problem.

Everyone

is scumreading BBT.

I know, its quite telling....

I will see if anyone draws the same conclusion im drawing first before i say anything

Ank's earlier anti-Regfan stance was always going to let him set it up in his favour.

So you thought at the time that when pretty much everyone thought that theelkspeaks was fully willing to lynch elk except for BBT and me, I, as elk's scumpartner, would turn on him completely out of the blue when the chances of him not being lynched from it was virtually nonexistent?

If it's you-elk, doing something risky wouldn't've been unwarranted. If Antihero hadn't immediately followed it up with a vote, there probably would've been opportunities. But if you were still convinced it had to be BBT as elk's partner, why did you vote him then?

Ika, I still want to know why you think Ank's town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Like, nobody has a single, solid reason for me being scum.

I gave you a whole list last time you asked.

I bet Anti wouldn't have been scum reading me...

And I bet Tammy would. Do you think Zach would have a hard time picking between you and me? I don't. You can focus all you want on the one nightkill where there was one obvious option but the other nightkills tell a very different story.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Or he could've pushed for BBT instead. You'd get on board with that and you could then argue from then on that no one makes sense as a partner to elk. Yeah, it's risky, but if it had been you-elk, I think the situation called for some risk.

The question is why you voted elk when you thought elk only made sense as BBT's buddy. You're making the motive abundantly clear from the perspective of Ank-BBT.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your list was shockingly bad and mostly relied on elk being scum.

You wanna try that list again?

So "shockingly bad" you chose not to engage with any of it. 2 out of 7 points relied on elkscum. The other five are still valid.

But I can add to that: your focus on the Antikill while dismissing every previous nightkill; your inability to see why scum would want to keep alive ikatown (as town you have to be aware that a single wrong vote costs us the game and the connection then is really obvious); your insistence that I wouldn't bus Aneninen to save hypothetical ikascum (this shows you thinking in terms of things you can call scummy rather than in terms of people's motivations); your team's scumhunting consisting of things that take ika-me as their starting point (especially weird since Titus is supposed to have been town reading ika earlier).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The kill heading into LyLo is usually the most informative; I'm not big on NKA in most other situations. For the most obvious reason as this is the most important stage of the game.

And yet no one agrees with you. That's not a coincidence. Same way it's not a coincidence Zach got killed. I also can't help but note that again you're avoiding dealing with my motivations (specifically here, why I'd keep Anti alive over Zach) by appealing to general principles without regards to applicability (i.e. scum had just as much motivation to use the nightkill to keep themselves alive D4).

Ika, I strongly suspect you're going to be the deciding vote the way Ank has been angling himself, so look at this and see how little sense BBT's conception of mescum makes. He's not scumhunting, he's not looking at me and thinking about why I'm playing the way I'm playing - he's trying to find arguments he can push, he's just applying rules. He keeps dressing it up, but his scumhunting is hollow.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES i ask again, whats the scum case on ank?

I already posted this in 2011.

Ika, the point of not voting is that if we start voting, every single townie needs to vote correctly. If it's Ank-Regfan or BBT-Regfan*, loose votes just lose us the game. On that topic, I will also note that Regfan seems like an objectively better lynch to me considering BBT-me is obvious nonsense and the way Regfan seemed protective of me Yesterday - it loses to me-Ank but that shouldn't be an issue if you're town-reading Ank.

*This isn't nearly as absurd as it first seems. I was thinking about how I would've played it if I'd been scum with Regfan. Different nightkills is the obvious #1 thing, but Regfan pushing me Today wouldn't be a bad shout - given Ank's stated opinions, it would force a showdown between me-Ank and Regfan-BBT and then I get to take advantage of your town read on ika to get BBT mislynched, easy-peasy.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Also, this just occurred to me - if I were scum with Regfan, why the hell would I hammer elk? Literally the last thing elk did was commit unconditionally to his tunnel on ika so if I get BBT lynched, I don't have to deal with a LyLo that's tilted against me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Reg lining up to vote me is scummy as fuck. Reasons for thinking I'm scum in your next post would be great.

I should be reaching out to you and Ank? Neither of you have fucking been here, it's been me talking to both scum on my own. Ank has recently started contributing and now so have you (one post doesn't quite cut it though).

Reg, do you have any comments on anything I have posted over the last few pages? Anything at all?

I'm also going to point these out. I think it's obvious that you're going to be the decider here, ika (which is another reason why votes seem superfluous at best right now). BBT can see the same thing and has started discrediting Regfan. This makes perfect sense for BBTscum and is absolutely not the reaction of BBTtown that thinks you are scum.

I mean, BBT's position is pretty much unwinnable here if I were scum with you, ika, and his posts don't reflect that at all.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fine. I'm pretty much ready for this game to be over anyway if I'm wrong about BBT.

Vote: BBT

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Am I really wrong about ika? Have I just held a grudge for way too long? Is ika walling a sign that he truly is town? (in case CES tries to somehow use this as a reason for scum reading me, it's a joke).

God, lynch this with fire.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Generally when I read his posts or I've engaged with me, I think town but his continual absences and the diminished impact that he's had this game compared to what I expect of him have bothered me. The way he pushed me Yesterday when I went after BBT did seem off, especially in light of Today where he's decided that BBT is scummier than me (which I maintain is the correct play for BBT-Regfan; just imagine what happens if he picks BBT's side) without giving much in the way of reasons when Yesterday he seemed to think the BBT-Psyche interactions exonerated BBT.

I still think it's more likely to be you and BBT, but I can see BBT-Regfan.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But if you're town, exhibit A that it's BBT is the way he's handled his ikascumread (if the scum team had been me-ika, this LyLo would be very hard for town to win; the god-awful post he just made in which he dropped his ikascumread like a hot potato). Exhibit B is that a me-Regfan scum team would always kill Antihero over Zach when Anti's scum-reading both of us and there's an obvious excuse for his death.

I can give you Exhibits C through H too but I'd rather focus on the important stuff.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

hers n easy taks for the both of you:

point out assoicative tells that shows the other is scum with annen

Okay.

Psyche commits what we oldies call the Stoofer tell early on, where he lets his knowledge of BBT being scum lead him to push more strongly than appropriate. If you look at the elaborate reasoning in 143 compared to his lack of reasoning elsewhere, I think the natural conclusion is that the difference is because the reasoning is real. Later on, Psyche also seemed to assume BBT's accusation that 'marble was using tokens to scumhunt significantly was false when it was broadly true.

D2, there's almost no interaction between them apart from a fairly pointless "do something" vote by BBT. Aneninen doesn't really mention BBT all that often in his catch-ups and when he did, it was generally in the context of BBT-ika - he was suggesting that was potential SvS while pushing ika.

BBT really interacts very little with Anen on D3, especially given that he made a few comments expressing he wanted to see what the slot would do now it had an active occupant, which is even worse in view of the comment that he "just couldn't see a situation where both Anen and elk were town" which he makes as he's voting Aneninen.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

So you're saying you think me-ika is the most likely scum team but you're just not engaging Regfan even though he's made it clear he's likely to vote you soon.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm waiting for his case on me. How else do you expect me to engage him?

He's posted two walls Today and all you've said about either is that his going after you is scummy and that he needs to justify his scum read on you. You can't pretend you've engaged with him to the best of your ability.

I've been kind of playing in the team PT for a bit since I'm still trying to figure out how all our opinions are so divergent from each other.

Do you mean your team's opinions by that?

Ank, I agree that Regfan would be a better lynch than me. But I basically know BBT is scum at this point and I think you should be able to tell. Just look at the way he's interacted with peopleToday - casting shade on Regfan, trying to convince ika (see e.g. 2024 or look at 2065 which is just not believable.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

ank you should vote reg and see what happens

I'm pretty sure that can't hurt but I'd rather have no messing about and 3 votes on BBT before I go to Orlandomeet on Saturday.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

so now you are calling it a BBT/reg team CES?

No. I'm unsure. Ank suggesting a Regfanlynch doesn't exactly make me feel better about him but at least he has a reasonable explanation for why he didn't post for a day.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

well unless if reg comes in here... you might be out of luck

we could dispute the me/you pair if ank votes by both of us posting while we are here

It's nighttime in Australia now, so he might post in his morning. The two of you could lynch BBT while I sleep?

I think that's such a good plan that I will go to sleep right now.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

just want to hear from Mina first

You can ask her if I look townier than Patrick did.

ika, still waiting for your CES/BBT scum team thoughts.

Why is that something you care about at a time like this?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

However, Reg's slow shift in his read of me fits with the gamestate and gameplan of scum keeping me alive for the mislynch in LyLo.

Why would scum have been planning to mislynch you in LyLo specifically?

So, I'm going through CES' ISO with the idea that he could be scum with ika or Reg, and tbh, I don't care who it is as long as CES is lynched today.

If I were scum with ika, he would just hammer you.

You can do boring post-by-posts all you want but your mindset here doesn't even make any sense.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I mean, if it's me-ika, then Regfan's vote just lost you the game but you seem perfectly content to let that be and go off quote-mining on your own.