I didn't read this thread at all before replacing in and now I should probably sift through 56 whole pages but holy shit I have to
Summary please???
↑ dragonspawn wrote:Reread Cho's arguments and I'm thinking it through.
One thing I don't get is why assume those roles were last? I can see why it makes sense that they would be chosen last, but why should we assume they were?
↑ Tere wrote:↑ Cho wrote:ZZZX, Frogger, ika are all on my never-lynch list. Tere is maybe-never-lynch.
I want a Grib read but my head isn't easily coming to a conclusion on that one.
I don't think I'll be able to read Plum, most likely due to differences in mafia generation/thought process, but I might give it a go on a less busy day.
Cho, can you explain why Z is on your never lynch list?
↑ Fro99er wrote:I mean. If there were another vig, you'd have likely been CC'd if my theory is correct (still learning). I don't see why there'd be two town vig's in this setup. You weren't CC'd. So either there's no town vig or you are the vig. Plain and simple.
(someone please absolutely step in if my theory is wrong, but assuming it's right...) It's all speculation about the setup and WIFOM from there.
↑ ika wrote:
your setup confimred to be non-mafia. not non-sk....
thats the point im more of arguing now but not pushing it very hard.
if you could draw a conclusion that would make it non-sk then maybe but im showing you a flaw in your setup spec. im not disproving your idea that killing exist with BP, im jsut disprvoing it should be town!vig
↑ Plum wrote:I'm here, I'm here. I feel like I don't have the tools to use what information we have effectively. I feel like someone should know what the deal is with Frogmollie, like seriously, but it's not me and no one seems to have a slam dunk there (except . . . Yukari? Do you? Do youreally?), which is frustrating.That said, I agree 100% with Grib that it's either that Yukari got Roleblocked or that he's scum.I'm tempted to just go along with what he's doing in response to that. Which would mean lynching Frogmollie.
It's the opposite of what you said, Yukari - Hydrangea defending Frogmollie increases odds of Hydrangea-scum if Frogmollie is Town, not if they're scum.
Mollie, why did you launch into speculah re who you'd have NK'd if you were scum? It's pointless WIFOM - like serious real WIFOM okay I'm using the buzzword for something meaningful here - so why?
↑ Frogging Mollie wrote:personally I am going to look at who is on staying on the edges cos I am pretty sure there will be scum there. scum love 1v1s but scum are often uncertain on how to handle them during the aftermath so tend to hold back a bit to see where town herd mentality will go.
Correct.
And just because a couple of people have mentioned this, Andrius mentioned to me before the game even filled, in response to me saying something about my prior hiatus, that he didn't know how long he himself would be on the site, so I wasn't surprised when he replaced out. Could it have been influenced by his alignment? Possibly, probably had more to do with stuff unrelated to that, so &c.
One thing that strikes me looking back is the Day 1 Bookitty wagon. As it forms, even at four players {Grib, elusive, Metal Sonic, White Night Imagination} I don't think the unflipped there are scum and the flipped are both Town. This was when Bookitty was away V/LA. Still. So I was looking at the Bookitty wagon. Don't really trust Bellaphant via that. Started typing out what was wrong with her trajectory re Bookitty, but now I'm not sure at all. It's weird. Whatever. Basically the whole Bookitty wagon looks like it was Town-driven and either entirely or almost entirely (?) Town. Doesn't make Bookitty scum. But in light of the MS flip and the nature of competing wagons, it means something. Although to refocus on Bellaphant, her unvote and revote on MS seems a little bit sketchy to me. We never see what she processes of the info, which is why she unvotes in the first place . . . eh.
Based on Grib's view of how Yukari/Frogmollie Night stuff played out, at this point I think a Frogmollie lynch would be fine pending any exciting new revelations from Yukari's slot. Bookitty also looks like a good choice just based on wagons from Day 1, but I'll reread her regardless. The other under-the-radar players in due time.
↑ Bellaphant wrote:Cho, re-read my posts today and see if you wanna vig me still, pls.
↑ Plum wrote:↑ Bellaphant wrote:Plum wrote:I'm here, I'm here. I feel like I don't have the tools to use what information we have effectively. I feel like someone should know what the deal is with Frogmollie, like seriously, but it's not me and no one seems to have a slam dunk there (except . . . Yukari? Do you? Do youreally?), which is frustrating. That said, I agree 100% with Grib that it's either that Yukari got Roleblocked or that he's scum. I'm tempted to just go along with what he's doing in response to that. Which would mean lynching Frogmollie.
Is it possible Mollie was protected?
I'm going to go with no.
↑ Plum wrote:
I agree with Grib that it's unlikely that all scum were on the MS wagon at the end of Day 1, and you're far and away the scummiest of those who fit that description and are currently alive, the others being dead Town. What's not to get?
↑ Bellaphant wrote:Plum wrote:I'm here, I'm here. I feel like I don't have the tools to use what information we have effectively. I feel like someone should know what the deal is with Frogmollie, like seriously, but it's not me and no one seems to have a slam dunk there (except . . . Yukari? Do you? Do youreally?), which is frustrating. That said, I agree 100% with Grib that it's either that Yukari got Roleblocked or that he's scum. I'm tempted to just go along with what he's doing in response to that. Which would mean lynching Frogmollie.
Is it possible Mollie was protected?
I'm going to go with no.
↑ Bellaphant wrote:Sorry, I'm not following this: what have I got to do with Boo? I never voted that slot...Also, I unvoted, thought about the claim, realised it didn't change much, and the stuff about being mod-confirmed seemed like a gambit. I did explain that.
You had Bookitty under apparent scrutiny, went back and forth to some degree Day 1 (including asking multiple people to discuss their scumreads on her), listed her as a better target than Frogmollie in the event MS flipped Town and today . . . I'm not sure. You never voted Bookitty, sure, but there was an awful lot of hedging regarding it while you stayed on MS. I'm not sure what to make of it. Still trying to think it through. Maybe it just looks worse at the beginning of your ISO and then by the time I'm finished ctrl-F boo in your ISO I'm not sure whether I was seeing something relevant or not.
Tere, nice to see you. I'm not scum. And, uh, you can go ahead and vote me, I'm nowhere near anything. Or continue to intend to vote me. If you'd like to talk about me or to me about it, that's cool too.
↑ Cho wrote:↑ Plum wrote:↑ Bellaphant wrote:Plum wrote:I'm here, I'm here. I feel like I don't have the tools to use what information we have effectively. I feel like someone should know what the deal is with Frogmollie, like seriously, but it's not me and no one seems to have a slam dunk there (except . . . Yukari? Do you? Do youreally?), which is frustrating. That said, I agree 100% with Grib that it's either that Yukari got Roleblocked or that he's scum. I'm tempted to just go along with what he's doing in response to that. Which would mean lynching Frogmollie.
Is it possible Mollie was protected?
I'm going to go with no.
Okaaaaaaay.
Never mind, just found this gem.