Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Lowercase]

Hey guys! It's me, the lovable lowercase. I'll get my thoughts together in just a second, so bear with me here.

[Lowercase]

First thoughts:

Yuriko's insistence on attacking Cargo's 'RV' thing is comically missing the point, which is a common scum tactic.

Draynth sort of does the same thing as yuriko though. It's weird that even though cargo's vote is actually opportunistic and arguably scummy, both of the retaliatory votes on him included such a skeevy point.

Nothing Honest has posted so far comes off as scummy. The naked vote was not opportunistic and the reason behind it was sort of obvious, so it wasn't all that bad. His posts are a little lazy but they don't strike me as bad in any of the ways I'm looking for at this juncture. Still, if he doesn't start posting more, I don't want to see him anywhere near lylo.

I want to see more reads from ZS.

[Lowercase]

Ok, I think I've got an idea of where I want the game to go. First off, I think we should lynch a lurker; this game is to slow to justify any day one decisions that would slow it down further. I'm thinking either dwlee or ZS. Reasons are a little sparse due to the low post count but basically:

Lee- Previous slot holder votes ZS to L-1 and bounces. New slot holder comes in, complains about low site posting rate and then doesn't post anymore.

ZS- he was wagoned early on; he responded to the pressure somewhat, then after the wagon dissolved he just vanished. Did he ever finish that reread?

[Lowercase]

I think that your vote is on BBT currently (replacing Axwell). Perhaps you'd like to move it to a different player?

Yeah, I noticed that after my last post but didn't think it warranted another post to change it.
UNVOTE:

As for Yuriko, I agree that her behavior looks pretty scummy. For whatever brownie posts it's worth, I also noticed that her dwlee vote was a transparent attempt to redirect pressure. She could easily be scum; I wouldn't be upset if we lynched her. I'm not willing to commit to it at this point.

I was kind of hoping we would get more out of ZS though. It seemed like he wanted to get into the game early on, so the fact that he has apparently flaked likely indicates dissatisfaction with his role, if you catch my drift. This is true to some extent for honest as well, but part of what bothers me with ZS is that the last thing he did was promise some kind of reads list. I find it much easier to make an off-the-cuff post about my actual thoughts than to make up reasonable fake thoughts, and I suspect that may be true for ZS as well. If this is why he isn't posting, then that's pretty scummy.

I'm not really considering voting dwlee at this point.

[Lowercase]

EBWOP: It's supposed to be 'brownie points' not 'brownie posts'. OMG, guess it's time to stop drinking, lol.

[Lowercase]

The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

This seems like it could be true, but in practice you never make friends by suggesting a policy lynch like that. More importantly though, there is a good reason to lynch the way I'm suggesting. The fact is that town has a pretty abysmal level of accuracy according to newbie game statistics (at least last time I checked). It turns out that a lynching a random replacement into a newbie slot is more likely to hit scum than a typical day one lynch (which in turn is about as likely to be scum as a random player). This is one reason I'm not crazy about lynching Yuriko; I'm just not sure I buy that her behavior is strongly indicative of scum, even though I see where her detractors are coming from.

I think we should probably lynch gratuitous. The way ZS replaced out is profoundly scummy and gratuitous's replace in is pretty scummy as well. I've already talked about why I think the replace out is bad. Gratuitous replaced in, and immediately voted the most popular wagon while reiterating points that had already been made in the thread and making no other contribution. At the very least, this is not something that should escape scrutiny.

VOTE: gratuitous

@BBT: Do either of the other votes on the Yuriko wagon bother you? They both look like they were cast under suspicious circumstances to me.

[Lowercase]

Mostly I just don't trust the sort of things we're talking about with Yuriko. Also, I don't see how you could think Dwlee's vote is ok. Yuriko voting him was pretty clearly not OMGUS, in fact, what he did was actually OMGUS. And even then, I find it highly suspect to push a vote on someone who has been attacked by most of the game because they did an OMGUS. Is Yuriko even allowed to vote anyone at this point?

I mean, come on. ZS says he's going to post a reads list tomorrow then completely flakes. How does that not reek of scum role dissatisfaction.

[Lowercase]

I should probably elaborate on the first sentence of my last post. Basically all evidence comes down to looking at some action and saying, how likely is this action as scum vs how likely as town. The fact is that the main thing that strikes me as scummy about yuriko was the point about attacking the 'RV' aspect of cargo's vote, which I don't consider super awful by itself. The other things she did make about as much sense as either alignment, so I see why scum would do them, but I don't really see why town wouldn't.

p-edit: Naturally, but context is important here.

[Lowercase]

When I first replaced in the ZS slot didn't look likely to flake. They had a reasonable amount of activity in the beginning and nothing about the circumstances seem like they should have been difficult for town ZS. But the slot offered little in the way of reads other than a weirdly vacillating opinion on Honest, then he flaked after he promised something concrete. That is by no means typical of a town flake.

[Lowercase]

Huh, I only noticed that when you mentioned it just now. So you think two of us refers to scum, both of whom had not yet weighed in on the wagon? That's pretty interesting. Right now I'm watching kids so it'll be later today before I can really look into it.

As for the second point, no it isn't the same as either alignment. ZS did not seem uncomfortable making posts at first, nor did he express difficulty getting reads, but ultimately that seems like the most likely reason he replaced out. That would imply scum.

[Lowercase]

Nvm, looked at the post she made and it couldn't possibly mean the scum team due to the parenthetical aside.

[Lowercase]

Let's not hammer until the two of us get to say something (or get replaced)
That said,

Zero please speak for yourself. Who do you think is scum and why do you think there's so many votes on your head?

I assume this is the post you are talking about. Clearly she thinks that the two people in question are likely to be replaced (at least the way I read it). She couldn't be referring to herself, since there has been no point in time that she has looked likely to be replaced. My guess is that she is referring to Mark and Axwell and uses the phrase 'two of us' to mean two people out of an arbitrary group including herself (most likely everyone).

Unless I'm profoundly misinterpreting this post, I don't see how it could be a scumslip as you seem to imply. I also don't see how inconsistency in explaining a semantic error would be more likely from scum than town.

[Lowercase]

Spoiler: Gratuitous's post 162

First, thanks to fferyllt for having me. Glad to join in here!

On to business:
UNVOTE: Honest

Upon my first read over, the player who has stuck out the most to me in a bad way is YurikoJasmine.
I don't like the sequence at #54 & #60, where she calls Necargo out for putting Honest at L-1 in #54 (never mind the fact she was part of an even earlier L-1 wagon, and didn't say anything about that one), but then waits 4+ hours until posts #60 to attach some flimsy rational and make the vote. This isn't progression of a read, it was testing the air at #54, and then waiting until after Draynth and Dierfire also pressure the same thing before placing the vote.

Additionally, her posts at #98 & #99 are strange as well, as in #98 she says she would not have voted Honest if he hadn't already been L-1, but then doubtcasts Honest in the next post (#99).

Additionally I concur with BBT's #153.

@Gratuitous: You make two points against Yuriko. The first one boils down to calling Yuriko's reason for voting cargo flimsy, which I pointed out myself. You also mention the timing which is admittedly new, but I don't really see how it is relevant.

BBT draws attention to post 99 just before voting Yuriko, but I guess you're right that these things aren't explicitly mentioned.

I'll grant that I was wrong about your post being a reiteration, but my fundamental issue is that you immediately take the easiest stance available. I still don't even know what you think about anyone other than Yuriko.

As for your second point, I was mainly criticizing the manner in which ZS replaced out; that's why I'm not suggesting we lynch Mathilda or Draynth. The reasons someone replaced out are just as valid for getting a read as anything else. People like to say things like 'replacing out is null' and the like, but that's essentially the same as saying 'voting is null.' The context is key.

p-edit: Suppose we don't lynch Yuriko. Who should we lynch?

[Lowercase]

Oh sorry, cargo was the other replace.

[Lowercase]

Yes when you radically simplify and mischaracterize my point, it does come off as rather weak. That doesn't really matter though because you can't make excuses for you previous slot holder and I don't care if you try to.

The more important thing is the question. Who would you consider lynching if Yuriko was suddenly an impossibility. Is she your only read? Who do you like for town?

[Lowercase]

Phew, it's a good thing you chimed in when you did. You were about to get prodded.

[Lowercase]

First off, I've cooled off on the Gratuitous thing. More because I'm starting to see that dwlee is ridiculously scummy than anything else.

For the record though, the things Mathilda says would suggest that scum are the least likely to replace out and that PR's may be more likely to replace out than VT's. In actual fact scum are most likely to replace out and PR's are least likely. I would guess the reason for the difference between scum and town is that the two factions are essentially playing entirely different games. For town it's a game about figuring out what's going on, whereas for scum it's about deception. My central argument is that ZS replaced out instead of giving a reads list like he promised.

For town, all you need to do to give a reads list is put down whatever thoughts you have about each player. You don't need to be clever or insightful, really. Anything you put comes from a place of authenticity pretty much by default.

As scum, your reads are complete lies that you need to justify with BS. Then there's the added pressure that people will try to see if the reads are authentic, which you know they are not.

If the replace out was related to difficulty giving reads, which it looks like it was, then it makes way more sense from scum. That is the point I'm making; you don't have to buy it.

On another note, what do people think about dwlee. Imo, pretty poor posting and not a lot of it.

[Lowercase]

@dwlee: Yuriko did not OMGUS you, you OMGUS'd her.

Your opening post suggests you should be posting more, but all you've done is come up with a flimsy reason to attack the slot everyone else was complaining about.

You just prod dodged with a post that was both a misread and would have been irrelevant even if it wasn't. (She wasn't saying anyone was stupid; it wouldn't matter if she had been).

@Draynth: Maybe it was because I wasn't reading it as it happened, but I had assumed honest was not RV'ing myself. I don't think his post quality is as bad as you make it out to be.

[Lowercase]

Minor errata: I guess she was implying that BBT was stupid. Nonetheless, it's irrelevant.

[Lowercase]

@Dranyth: The context of the vote looked like he was pushing back at BBT for encouraging the early wagon. There may have been more to it but that's just how I saw it at the time. It's possible I had read his justification first and forgot.

I really don't understand how no one else seems skeptical of dwlee. He could have at least responded to the last post I directed at him.

[Lowercase]

Usually, I don't think replacing out is alignment indicative but I

really

don't like the timing of that one.

I knew you'd come around someday. Also I agree that that was pretty bad timing.

In response to your questions in 235:

I don't feel like [some post] fits in with [some other post]. Is your read changing on Yuri? If so, why?

My main gripe with Yuri early on was a combination of the 'RV' push and the post in which she asked ZS 'why do you think people are voting you?' The first because it was a silly reason and the second because it was a silly question. Had she continued doing things I thought were silly wastes of time I would have scum-read her more strongly, but she didn't. The only other thing I thought was worth mentioning was that her lee vote seemed like an attempt to redirect attention, but that was a meh reason even when I pointed it out.

The other things she did make about as much sense as either alignment, so I see why scum would do them, but I don't really see why town wouldn't.

Wording has caught my attention here; can you also see Yuri doing those things as town?

Yes? The thing you're pointing out is not a wording issue. You correctly understood what I was saying there.

No, what you're doing is speculating on why Zero replaced out and then using your speculation as reasoning for why that slot is scum.

I doubt you have a better way of finding scum day one than speculating reasons as to why person X did thing Y.


@dwlee: ftr, OMGUS is voting someone

because

they voted/suspected you. Had she voted you shortly after your first post or cited your suspicion as a reason, you might be correct in stating that she OMGUS'd you.

Once dwlee reaches L-1 I'll declare intent to hammer.

[Lowercase]

I don't see any reason to drag this out; I want a claim from dwlee.

[Lowercase]

OK, well now you're using 'silly' as a synonym for 'scummy' and I don't like that. You said 'Yuri's behaviour was pretty scummy' (your words) this implies that your feelings on Yuri were more than just 'she was doing silly things.' What am I missing here?

No, I'm not using silly as a synonym for scummy, I'm implying that posting pointless questions and reasons that don't make any sense in lieu of other things is scummy. I thought she was doing that early on, but she has not continued the trend. Honestly, I think that was obvious to anyone reading the post.

Lowercase why wait? Why not vote him now?

I wanted to hammer because I don't want people pussyfooting around for no reason, as it seems is happening here. If you don't want to end the day now, you should actually have a direction you want to go in.

[Lowercase]

No, you don't have a direction. What you said basically translates to 'I don't have a direction, I just want to wait around because who knows?' We're going to end up at deadline without making any actual progress if you do this.

[Lowercase]

We have over 3 1/2 days, there is no rush.

Yeah, I'll keep that in mind, I guess.

It's fine that you're having cold feet I suppose, but you haven't suggested an alternative wagon. Based on your last long post, it looks like you're questioning me and Draynth possibly in connection to Gratuitous. I'll look at Draynth, but I don't yet see any compelling reason to lynch him over a slot that is both likely scum and unlikely to contribute if not.

[Lowercase]

OK, so now we're in agreement that I DO have a direction?

No, I don't think you are seriously pursuing either angle. You just want to wait around to see if anything happens.

[Lowercase]

No, it doesn't. I said you wanted to wait around, because you don't have a direction. You've essentially admitted that that is the case. I don't think suspicions constitute a direction unless you think they might result in a lynch.

@Yuri: It's bad mostly because it's a waste of time, but also because I don't want to see a bunch of vanity wagons form in the two days it will probably take for dwlee to post again.

[Lowercase]

I want an explanation of your grat read. I'm very interested in what you have to say about that slot.

[Lowercase]

Like, honestly. I really think that's a real read that you actually have. What with how non-alignment indicative his replace out is and all.

[Lowercase]

Er, ZS's replace out, I mean.

[Lowercase]

Actually, I think I was a smidgeon overly antagonistic in that last post. Nonetheless, I would be happy to entertain your case on Grat. He's basically vanished and I don't really like his yuri or dwlee but not both thing.

[Lowercase]

Watching with concern: Draynth

Can you expand on this read please Grat?

I also request an answer to this question.

[Lowercase]

Ok, then. I want dwlee to claim. I would also like shaddowez and gratuitous to respond if at all possible before day's end.

[Lowercase]

Since we're waiting. Gratuitous, you're on record saying that your top scum reads are Yuriko and Gratuitous but that you don't think they're scum together. That means that in your eyes they must have something like 50% odds of flipping scum. So I have two ways of interpreting this:

1. You don't feel strongly about your top scum reads, which means your null-scum reads (draynth/shaddow) are almost as likely to be scum in your eyes.
2. The whole premise is bullshit and you are maneuvering for a day 2 position.

Is there something I am missing here?

[Lowercase]

K, I'll give Grat until he gets prodded to respond before hammering.

[Lowercase]

Lee, that also means you have about 3 hours to post any insight you might have on recent discussion.

[Lowercase]

I think we could swing a grat lynch, but whatever floats your boat I guess.

[Lowercase]

Seriously? If you could have your fondest lynch-wish come true, who would it be?

[Lowercase]

Because sometimes wishes come true. But more importantly I'm actually a little surprised you don't think Grat is scum. He looks pretty damn scummy from where I'm sitting.

[Lowercase]

Ok buddy, have fun with that.

[Lowercase]

Ok, fair enough.
VOTE: dwlee

[Lowercase]

If he was bussed it seems like the most likely busser would be shaddowez.

[Lowercase]

Did you ever do that reads list?

[Lowercase]

@mathilda:
The most obvious reason for the kill would be that dierfire seemed dangerous to the last scum and was perceived as unlikely to draw protection. I don't think he said anything that would give away his role, unless someone else has info about that.

Based on the newbie game statistics thread (which I could link if you want), scum votes seem to be distributed mostly randomly. The one thing I remember about that is that scum votes are rarely found in the first two slots of a scum wagon, but I would have to look again to verify that result.

Scum don't have day chat in newbie games.

The real cliche with respect to accusations is claiming to be suspicious of your scum buddy but not suspicious enough to vote them.

p-edit: I'm going to go ahead and so no to that last one.

[Lowercase]

Dierfire was the only person that was scumreading you, for whatever reason, and the partner is probably going to try use that as an arguement to get you lynched.

It's pretty common that this framing argument gets brought up, but there are a couple problems with it. The first is that in practice framing doesn't work because you're removing a player that is likely to push that slot. Generally, you won't even break even if you want to increase suspicion.

The other is that it's a poor reason to nightkill regardless. There is no reason for scum to try to push a lynch on someone specific. It's better to shoot people you could not possibly score lynches on or that have good reads. In practice, most scum do this (at least from what I've seen).

[Lowercase]

Shaddowez more or less sums up my views on the Grat slot.

My statement about shaddowez being the most likely busser is due both to Cargo's replacement timing as well as what seemed like an untenable position on the gamestate. Specifically, I felt it was untenable to argue that I was bussing dwlee. I still do, but evidently BBT lends this theory some credence, so I'm willing to let it slide. The main thing I don't like about that possibility is that I'm not sure any of the connection that typically exists between new-scum is there. I would generally expect dwlee's partner to be more aware of them in most cases, whereas Cargo didn't talk much about anyone specifically until he replaced out.

I'm not sure about Draynth for pretty much the same reason. He was scum in Divine Comedy mafia, which ended during day one. In that game there was a lot of potentially incriminating interaction between Draynth and his buddy, which didn't really happen here. At the same time, Dwlee didn't say much for Draynth to poke at, so I don't want to write him off completely.

p-edit: At about the point I first started attacking dwlee, I preferred his lynch (I briefly changed my mind because I thought Grat had disappeared without V/LA). The reason I waited for L-1 is precisely the reason I gave; I didn't want day one to drag on. It doesn't really matter though. My premature intent to hammer was as good as a vote anyway, claiming otherwise is a little silly.

Based strictly on interaction, I think Grat makes more sense for buddy, but I need to look more into it.

[Lowercase]

Is Draynth V/LA or has Fferyllt just not gotten around to prodding him? It seems like a lot of people are waiting on him.

[Lowercase]

Ah, sorry. I missed that.

[Lowercase]

Claiming to hammer and actually placing the vote are two very different things.

If you actually think this you're delusional. Even the example you gave is inherently flawed in that if you claim premature intent and no one votes up to L-1, there isn't enough support to push a lynch through anyway. More importantly, the vote to L-1 is taken more lightly than the hammer; the whole point of my play was to push the lynch through more quickly, which is clearly how you interpreted it at the time.



Anyway, I differ on my opinion of Draynth's read list. It's bad that it took him so long to do; but given that fact, it's not surprising that the reads looked a little lazy. There's a strong possibility that he's just a disinterested/busy townie.

I think I still want to lynch Grat. So I have an indirectly related question. How many people were scum-reading Yuriko prior to the dwlee flip?

[Lowercase]

Wrong, more votes = more momentum.

This is sort of true, but not really. The 'momentum' of a wagon is a subjective judgement of how likely it is that it will lead to a lynch. I would argue a wagon at L-2 with premature intent to hammer actually looks more likely to lead to a lynch than an L-1 wagon without.

This is so strange - what gives you the opinion of Draynth being a 'disinterested townie'? I mean, we just lynched scum D1. I know of one alignment that would be disinterested after D1, but it isn't town... So please, elaborate on this for me.

Mostly that I think there are better options. My point in the last post is that taking a long time to post reads and having lazy reads isn't really two different points, it's just indicative of disinterest. You could be right, though. I just don't think you are.

The thing about Draynth is that his positions are pretty reasonable day one, and they're still pretty reasonable. The only problem I see with him is the aforementioned reads list delay. Compared to, for instance, Gratuitous who was still on Yuriko when we lynched dwlee, he looks pretty good.

Btw, is Grat on V/LA? I double-checked and it seems like he isn't.

[Lowercase]

Also:
VOTE: Gratuitous
Wouldn't want that momentum to die down.

[Lowercase]

Ok, so are we still on for Grat or what's the deal, here?

[Lowercase]

You know what? I'm just going to vote Grat right out the gate here.

VOTE: Grat

I could talk all day about how Grat's day one positioning was bad. How his day 2 play was also pretty bad, being practically non-existent and all. But I'll wait until someone asks me about that.

out of game reference redacted - f

Outside of that there's Yuriko and BBT. I don't think Yuriko's interactions with Dwlee look like partner interactions, nor do I really suspect BBT's involvement on the wagon. I have some reservations, but the only reasonable answer here is Grat, imo.

[Lowercase]

I suspect people will ask me to elaborate on the case, but didn't think it was something worth doing at the time. That post is intended to express my thoughts about the overall gamestate rather than to focus on Grat specifically.

The bottom line about my stance here is sort of two fold. First, Grat stayed off the Dwlee wagon day one, citing a scum read on Yuriko. On day 2 he posted very little, jumped on what ultimately became the lynch wagon and did little else.

By association, there is no one else in the game that looks like a reasonable partner for Dwlee. I have more in-depth thoughts involving a subtle inconsistency in his day one trajectory which suggests ad hoc reasoning, but I would like to see what other people think before filibustering the thread about that.

[Lowercase]

I was hoping for an actual response from someone other than Grat, but whatever.

The reason Grat's yuriko/dwlee position was bad is not because it was a bad read, but because it looks manufactured. And there are a couple reasons why. For one, it seemed like by day's end, no one was really pushing the Yuriko angle and from what I can tell most people had re-evaluated their scum reads on the slot. The only two people who seemed intent on Yuriko over dwlee were Grat and dwlee himself. Iirc, Grat did not post any evidence pushing the Yuri case after his first post, so it seems most likely that he had nothing else to say about the slot.

The other part is this. Grat says day one he doesn't expect his reads to exceed something like 50% certainty. So presumably in his first post, this was how likely he thought it was that Yuriko was scum. Since he did not post any other positions until later, either Dwlee 'slipped under his radar' or he noticed Dwlee's scummy behavior but didn't point it out (which would be worse.) By day's end he said he thought Grat or Yuri but not both were scum, implying that he developed contradictory reads but did not become any less sure about his first one.

This seems like an unreasonable train of thought for a townie, but the scum incentive behind it is obvious. He would not have to be in the wrong about Dwlee but would not have to participate in his lynch, and as a bonus he did not need to push any other slots.

BBT himself noted the weirdness of Grat's Draynth vote, and this post is long enough; so I won't point out anything about his day 2 play other than:

Day 2 I stood up and led the way with the best read I had.

Reading this post, you'd think voting Draynth was an act of true moral courage, when he was really just jumping on a band wagon with BBT.

[Lowercase]

I noticed your subtle defense of Draynth in #468, you know something we didn't?

Dude, I was pretty clearly not in favor of that wagon, I'd really prefer if you avoid using subtle in relation to my posts.

Draynth's wagon was bad because BBT's entire case boiled down to Draynth not being engaged enough. There was no effort to look into associations, which were non-existent between Draynth and Dwlee. It was pretty obvious that BBT was wrong about the game state at end of day one given that he expected a town flip from Dwlee, so I was actually a little surprised that BBT doubled down on his reads. The votes on the wagon were pretty bad as well. I like wagons to have real reasons. Disengagement isn't usually a good reason when there are associations, unless you're making a meta argument against someone like NS or natirasha.

[Lowercase]

I don't think BBT's likely scum here. Matrix6 is a pretty bad game for bussing, because trackers and JK's become radically more powerful when there is only one scum. If you're going to bus, it should be because you don't think there's any other way for the day to go. I don't think BBT would have considered the lynch inevitable at the time he entered the wagon, and his weird semi-coaching thing would have ultimately been counter-productive if he was scum. I suspect scum just happened to get lucky in shooting the tracker night one, so scum-BBT would have opened himself up to losing for reasons outside of his control for not that much gain.

I'm thinking it's prob between you and Grat, both of whom would make some degree of sense.

Ftr, the things that bother me about you are:
The night one kill makes the most sense from your perspective, because Dierfire had no suspicion on him and cited you as a scum-read.
Dwlee mentioned scum-reads on only two slots, Yuri and you. His last post before he died could be dismissed as WIFOM I suppose, but it was more of a pattern since he mentioned you in his first posts as well. He came off as rather weak scum, who often inexpertly attempt to distance by listing their partner as a scum-read.
The replace timing was pretty bad, given that it was when cargo would have likely been forced to comment on his partner's wagon hypothetically.
Your position on me and BBT are pretty weird. You accused me of bussing day one, then ultimately never pursued that even though the dwlee flip could only support your position.
Jumping on and off BBT was pretty bad, especially since your case was a list of behaviors ranging from not scummy to actually good.

I doubt you could come up with something that would make me want to lynch BBT. I don't like Yuriko's hammer, but the dwlee/yuri interactions seem all wrong for some sort of cross-bus. I think it is most likely that Dwlee was actually hoping to lynch Yuri early on.

[Lowercase]

LC, if Grat is scum; why are you not dead?

Because you suspected me and Mathilda started off voting grat day 2. Had I died, she likely would have gone back to Grat and you would no longer have any surviving scum-reads.

Actually, Dwlee and Grat were both voting Yuri from VC 1.5.

LC, you still think they can be scum together?

I've looked at a table of Newbie day one lynch wagon stats and the evidence shows that town lynch wagons are well-randomized such that conclusions like the one you're making here don't have any empirical support. I see no reason why that shouldn't also be true of wagons earlier in the day, so this doesn't mean anything to me.

I think you're right about shaddow, though. I don't understand the basis of your town-read on Grat but I think I actually wrote a stronger case against Shaddow than Grat.

[Lowercase]

On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(scum), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(town), not Yuri.

I also think this question targeted at Grat is bad. It's like he's trying to agree with me by talking about Grat's Yuriko read, but missing the point.

[Lowercase]

Ok, that's L-1, then.
VOTE: shaddowez

[Lowercase]

I agree, Lowercase would never vote Grat as scum.

VOTE: Grat

Seriously, though, I'm not about to find a reason to think that Yuriko is more likely scum than Grat, so I'd be kidding myself if I waited to vote.

I'd appreciate if Yuriko posted literally anything other than a vote at the earliest opportunity, since I would like her to be official conf-town before I bother with trying to convince her of anything.

[Lowercase]

It's pretty bad how hard LC flipped on Shaddowez as well in retro-spect, he sheeps Shaddowez read on me in #442, than on D3 allows BBT to get him off his push on me, without much effort.

...

Furthermore, you go from shooting down speculation about the NK in #401, to using to aid your case in #491.

I had Shaddow as a lesser scum read since end of day 1. I had you as a primary scum-read before that, so saying I sheeped Shaddow on day 2 is such bullshit you couldn't possibly actually think that.

Second paragraph is a blatant misrep. In 401, I said that nightkills are rarely used to frame someone, which had been suggested as the reason Dier died. In 491 I was not at all suggesting someone had been framed, but that Dier was an obvious NK from Shaddow's perspective. Analyzing nightkills is absolutely a reasonable thing to do, but hypothesizing frame-jobs is conspiracy theory talk.

But ok, I was waiting for Yuriko to conf-town herself here, but I can start a little early.

[Lowercase]

Here's a fun question for you Grat. I've mentioned that despite having 2 scum-reads on Day one, you were unwilling to join the wagon on Dwlee, instead scum-reading Yuriko long after everyone else (aside from dwlee) had dropped off her wagon. Let's suppose you just hate to compromise though.

How do you justify this:
[quote="In post 438, Gratuitous]Given Dwlee's flip, I've been working mostly by POE:

Gratutious
Yuriko
BBT, Lowercase,
Mathilda
Draynth, Shaddowez

I'd be willing to lynch from Mathilda down today, but would prefer to lynch on of the bottom two.[/quote]
The key point here is that on day one you were pretty inflexible about the Yuriko wagon despite claiming something like 50% certainty, but on day 2 you had a list of three people you were willing to lynch (all of them now flipped town, naturally). How do you justify that when there were fewer scum on day 2, you were willing to lynch more people.

[Lowercase]

Damn, I screwed up the quote.

[Lowercase]

But since you mention sheeping, I guess we can talk about that. Just about the only time you showed backbone and stayed off a major wagon was when Dwlee was being run up day one. Every other lynch wagon and the Yuriko wagon had you on it. So when you say I'm scum, you're accusing me not only of bussing, but also consciously staying off town wagons in the hopes that town would mislynch for me.

The fact is that by play, I'm obviously town. The only reason we're having this conversation right now is because BBT got his day 2 reads from a Ouija board.

Which brings me to an interesting thought experiment, suppose the Draynth lynch didn't happen. I wasn't about to get on the wagon and the hammer was accidental, so this isn't a far-fetched scenario. Where would hypothetical scum!lowercase be? BBT basically pushed through the day 2 and 3 wagons with his powers of shepherding, so why would scum-me want to discourage his wagon when his proposed alternative was me?

[Lowercase]

Another interesting hypothetical. Given BBT's aforementioned powers of shepherding, why would scum!lowercase allow him to live into day 3 when his only other stated scum-read was me?

[Lowercase]

Also, here's a fun little nugget.

Furthermore: it feels like he kinda soft-defended Dwlee in #310

It's not much, but I find it at least a little odd that Gratuitous would condemn a 'soft-defense' of Dwlee just

before

he flipped. Seems like he was treating him as scum while not voting him before he flipped.

[Lowercase]

Frankly LC, if you thought your #491 represented a stronger case than what you had on me from the entire game, well that says a lot about how bad you're case on me is.

Also, 'this case sucks' is the kind of thing you're typically supposed to point out before you help lynch a guy

[Lowercase]

Well, I guess I'm going to have to say mea culpa for this one, sorry guys.

[Lowercase]

It means 'my bad' in Spanish, essentially. I'm not 100% on the literal translation.

[Lowercase]

The dead thread seems to be wrong.

[Lowercase]

By which I mean the link.

[Lowercase]

That hammer was actually an accident? Huh, surprising.

[Lowercase]

Oh, shit. 'Mea culpa' is latin, wrong again I guess.

[Lowercase]

I thought he was scum. He may have been jobbing or sth, idk. The reason I considered switching to Grat at end of day was because I thought he vanished and I figured if BBT wanted to lynch someone else I may as well give him a chance. He might have been jobbing or something, though.

[Lowercase]

God damn, I need a proof-reader.

[Lowercase]

I still don't understand why your vote on me wasn't OMGUS. I called you suspicious. You voted for me after that. OMGUS. It doesn't have to be vote for vote it can be FoS for vote.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... d_You_Suck
OMGUS refers to voting someone because they voted you. You had not voted her when she voted you and she did not cite your suspicion as a contributing reason, iirc.