Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[shaddowez]

Hello all, just wanted to post a quick intro and say I am currently catching up - on page 3, but knowing there's been so many replacements don't want to make an early judgment call. Will post again once I've caught up and have actual content.

[shaddowez]

UNVOTE:

Currently my two strongest townreads are BBT and Dier. They've both been pushing for information from everybody else, and trying to determine motivations. They're also explaining their own reads and answering questions posed to them.

My strongest scumread is definitely dwlee. His introductory post, 119, has absolutely nothing of substance yet finds Yuri suspicious for not having posted anything of much use. While that's personal belief, she already had 20 posts before dwlee's entrance which makes it hard for me to believe that he actually had a basis for that statement. Yuri was also the most recent vote by BBT in 105, and without actually voting for either of his "suspicious" people screams out to me as sheeping and not actually trying to figure anything out.

The rest of his posts are complete fluff, focusing on the OMGUS vote (which wasn't an OMGUS vote).

VOTE: dwlee99

I believe that puts him at

L-1

Most of my remaining reads are null, with Yuri and LC being slight scumreads.

[shaddowez]

Reasons for my LC scumread:

Posts 124 and 155 mention Yuri being scummy, but not really elaborating or committing. Instead, they decide they want to lynch a lurker in 141, but still doesn't actually place a vote. They then go on to say in 177 that they're not sure her behavior is strongly indicative of scum.

Yuriko's insistence on attacking Cargo's 'RV' thing is comically missing the point, which is a common scum tactic.

As for Yuriko, I agree that her behavior looks pretty scummy. For whatever brownie posts it's worth, I also noticed that her dwlee vote was a transparent attempt to redirect pressure. She could easily be scum; I wouldn't be upset if we lynched her

This is one reason I'm not crazy about lynching Yuriko; I'm just not sure I buy that her behavior is strongly indicative of scum, even though I see where her detractors are coming from.

They then jump to a vote on Grat, mainly because of ZS' replace from the game. While it's possible it's an alt account (which means he would have had to have lied to mods), based on meta this was ZS' first game and he hasn't posted since leaving this game, so I'm not willing to say it was alignment indicative in any form.

They then start to defend Yuri and say that dwlee looks scummy, but won't commit to a vote until intent to hammer.

Actually, as I'm writing this out I'm changing to a full scumread on LC, and think he's bussing dwlee.

[shaddowez]

@Yuri:

At this point we know that dwlee is tunneling on you as scum, and isn't providing much more information. What do you hope to gain from continuing to humor him and keeping in this cycle of no information?

It also appears that dwlee is showing large amounts of confbias towards Yuri, which points to one of two options IMO:
1) He's newbscum who knows Yuri is town and is trying to get an early kill in on somebody who drew a lot of suspicion
2) He's town that tunnels, regardless of alignment.

@dwlee:

We know there's 2 scum, so rather than get hung up on what may or may not have been an OMGUS vote, why don't you provide more in-depth reasoning on why you think Yuri is scum, and also who you think the other scum may be? Also, do you have other games, specifically where you're town, that you could point us towards to see if you tunnel like this regularly?

P-Edit:

Looks like Yuri beat me to the punch on some of my points.

[shaddowez]

It's not in our interests to lynch town today

Out of curiosity, when is it in our interest to lynch town?

[shaddowez]

Phone posting, so I apologize for the lack of quotes and post numbers.

BBT:

Regarding my use of the term confbias, I do know it's a town thing but couldn't think of another term, tunneling didn't seem quite right to me.

I am also beginning to be unsure of Lee, as he may just be a complete newb and unsure how to play. That being said, I don't know that for a fact, and am still willing to vote him since at the least he's a hindrance to town at this point.

LC is still pinging my scumdar, and Grat is beginning to as well. I'll have limited access until Sunday night, but will post more once I'm back at a computer.

[shaddowez]

Did you ever do that reads list?

Was this in regards to my read on Grat? If so, here it is:

Grat joins the game, and immediately jumps on the Yuri wagon. He blames Yuri for hypocrisy in regards to the L-1 vote, but doesn't take the time to understand that Yuri's beef with Necargo was that he put someone at L-1 with his RV, not just that it was an RVS started wagon. He then uses her response time as an argument, which while it's possible is not strong enough IMO to use as evidence against somebody.

His argument againt Yuri's 98 and 99 are incredibly weak as well, considering you can't vote for everybody you think might be scum. There's no reason to point suspicion at somebody for having a slight scum read and not voting that person.

Additionally I concur with BBT's #153.

There's a lot of stuff going on in that post, including questions and comments directed at multiple people. Just a blanket "I agree" is lazy and trying to jump on a wagon without strong proof.

With the flip, this post makes my skin crawl:

@Lowercase, I know what you're saying with him. At this point I just can't see YJ & DWlee as scum together, and believe YJ is most likely to flip scum

His reasoning for suspecting Draynth is also very weak. While I actually do agree with the post that seems to soft defend Lee, the rest of it actually makes sense in context.

With nowhere else piquing my interest just yet, I'm comfortable putting my vote here for now.

VOTE: Grat

[shaddowez]

10 - MasonP/dwlee99 votes opportunistically on Zerosummer/Gratuitous. This takes Gratuitous's slot up to L-1 which would be very risky if Gratuitous was also Mafia. dwlee stays on the Gratuitous lynch wagon until he's the only one left (23)
then unvotes (26). This strongly suggests that Gratuitous is town.

@Mathilda

- What do you think of the possibility that lee was newbscum, and thought an early bus would be good for credibility if the lynch actually went through?

[shaddowez]

I quite liked the case - though I disagree with the conclusion. Do you think scum put their buddy to L-1 super early in the game? That would be pretty ballsy for newb!scum to pull off.

It's uncommon enough for an RVS wagon to go through, especially that early in the game, and would also give more than plausible deniability if a derphammer did come through and knock off a scumbuddy. While I agree it is brazen to do so, I don't think it's out of the question.

I also have to revisit my 273 and look into LC more. One post of his made him sound a bit more townish to me, but the rest not so much. I'll also be looking into Draynth more, as people have been putting forth interesting points against him.

[shaddowez]

BTW Shaddowez, what exactly is so scummy about calling someone an unaligned pair?

Calling Dwlee scum (and voting him), while also calling Yuriko scummy, boy that "makes my skin crawl" to borrow your words...

Ah, context, it's a beautiful thing. There's absolutely nothing wrong with calling out two reads as an unaligned pair - it doesn't really make sense to me in a game where you know that it's not multiball, but it's not scummy in and of itself. There's also nothing wrong with having two scumreads and only voting for one, since, well, you can only vote for one.

What you're failing to address is what I quoted in my previous post. the fact that you specifically said you find both scummy, ignored the dwlee wagon, and said you find Yuri more likely to flip scum between the two.

[shaddowez]

Hey all - this is a prod dodge, and I apologize! I usually have limited access over the weekend, and this weekend was worse than expected. I'll be back tomorrow night.

[shaddowez]

I've seen a few posts in regards to me possibly being scum due to my place on the wagon, and while I wouldn't normally take the time to defend myself against it, the lack of attention to detail regarding it may aid in cases on those that are down the line.

fferyllt announced me joining the game in 270, my first post was 271, and I voted dwlee in 272. At that point, there were already three people (YurikoJasmine, BlueBloodedToffee, and Mathilda) on the wagon. There was no way for my vote to be earlier on the wagon, as I wasn't in the game at that time. As town I have my vote and like to use it, so upon my read of the game, I put it where I felt it should be, regardless of the vote count (outside of confirming it wasn't going to be a derphammer). I do not, nor cannot, know what my predecessor was thinking, so their vote placement compared to my vote placement should not be a factor on determining whether you think I'm scum or not. If you thought that the slot was scummy and are continuing to read the slot as scummy for other reasons, please feel free to address me with those. If you're going to continue to claim that my specific actions are scummy based on when I voted, make sure you know what you're talking about first.

As for my scumreads, I'm actually going to post an unpopular opinion here. Upon a reread, I've noticed that BBT had some dialogue going in the beginning of the game, but hasn't actually had much to say about the game itself. He had a couple of posts with questions, (43, 92, 102, etc), but outside of his back and forth with Yuri hasn't interacted much or provided much insight. His voting pattern is also erratic - he votes in RVS (fine), then jumps onto the Honest wagon in 40 with no explanation or mention of Honest until that point. He then votes lee in 239, posts a few times about how that lynch should happen, then unvotes in 311 saying something doesn't feel right. In 335, less than 2 hours and 25 posts later:

I can quite easily vote Lee if it comes to it.

Didn't take much conversation to change his mind. 361 is where he votes Lee again, with some strange phrasing:

VOTE: Lee

Even if he is town, he is lynch bait further down the line.

Still not a fan of Grat, but I'm actually more comfortable with my vote here right now.
VOTE: BBT

[shaddowez]

Shaddow, talk to me about why I'm scum. I don't fully understand your case.

Nutshell version is there was a bunch of jumping around without much direct questioning or input....basically, exactly what you did in 462 is what I was looking for. So, with that...

UNVOTE:

I think I'm back to wanting a grat lynch, and still need to revisit lc.

[shaddowez]

BBT

- With Draynth flipping town, are you still so sure about LC being the other scum? I know you were against a Grat lynch early in the game, but I'm not sure if you actually thought he was town, or if it was because that's where LC wanted to go with a lynch.

Grat

- What sorts of reads do you have now? On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(

scum

), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(

town

), not Yuri. It's also interesting to note where you put Mathilda on your want lynched list in 438. Outside of your arguments that it's most likely I bussed dwlee, and LC tunneling you, do you have anything to offer?

Draynth's wagon was bad because BBT's entire case boiled down to Draynth not being engaged enough. There was no effort to look into associations, which were non-existent between Draynth and Dwlee. It was pretty obvious that BBT was wrong about the game state at end of day one given that he expected a town flip from Dwlee, so I was actually a little surprised that BBT doubled down on his reads

LC

- Do you think BBT is just having a hard time reading this game, or do you think his reads have been intentionally bad?

[shaddowez]

I'm not actually looking for a BBT lynch. There was something I didn't like about BBT's ISO at the time (tbh, I don't even recall exactly what it was, even reading my own post about it), but I do know that the post he made after was basically the only thing I was looking

for

, which is why I unvoted.

I've actually ISO'ed you a few times, but I never found anything I felt was worth posting about. I never did a full reads list, and since I had other places I wanted to focus my attention I didn't bother to say anything about it.

[shaddowez]

@Shaddowez: I'm a little bit curious how in two posts you go from asking that question (implying BBT's read are intentionally bad, which would indicate thinking he's scum) to saying you aren't looking for a BBT lynch. Do you think BBT is scum or not? If not, please make a case for someone you think is.

I wasn't implying anything in 490. That question was directly related to what I quoted from LC's 489. While I did have a slight scum read on BBT earlier in the game, I quickly changed my mind after reading his follow up post.

As for who I think is scum, I'm down to Grat or LC, both of whom are in interesting voting position right now. I'm going to go with VCA first, then cases to decide where I want to put my vote.

I've been fairly vocal about a Grat vote for a good portion of the game, and LC has been as well. If BBT were scum, it would have made sense for him to join the Grat wagon and get off an easy lynch toDay, and then push for my lynch tomorrow since he'd already mentioned thinking I may be scum. Since he decided to go after me instead, I'm fairly certain BBT is town.

LC switched votes to put me at L-1, which puts him firmly in the middle of the wagon. It gives him the ability to not have to hammer town, and he still only needs to convince one other person (Grat or Yuri) to vote me, putting tomorrow into LYLO. Since BBT was the swing vote and Grat won't vote for himself, that makes mine the easier wagon.

Grat has announced intent to hammer, which would normally involve a claim. Since this is an open setup and both town PRs have already been killed, that leaves only VT, which is impossible to prove. Additionally, since as I said before Grat has been one of my scumreads for a while, so he's not going to change his mind about voting me to vote for himself. This gives him the excuse of continuing with the hammer (assuming BBT or LC don't change their minds beforehand), even if I make a case against him.

As for the actual cases:

LC

- See 273 for my read up to that point. His next few posts are arguing semantics with BBT, and while he seems to be implying that BBT isn't doing anything (326), he never really goes back to BBT. In 371 he mentions a grat lynch again, as if he's testing the waters to move the wagon before having to hammer. He tunnels Grat D2 and D3, He then decides to switch to me when BBT asks instead of pushing for the Grat lynch that he's been pushing the entire game.

Grat

- Around 440 is my most recent argument for Grat. I actually like 486, and 497 actually answers something that hadn't been clear to me - it finally explains that he changes his view of Yuri after the lee flip.

All in all I'm still torn, but in review it actually looks like LC is more likely to be scum from where I sit.
VOTE: LC

[shaddowez]

GG guys - Yuri, remind me to never play with you when you're scum