Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Dierfire]

Hello everyone, welcome to the new players, nice to see some familiar names too!

VOTE: MasonP

I knew someone named Mason once.

[Dierfire]

UNVOTE: Mason
VOTE: Honest

I didn't like the naked vote in 27.

[Dierfire]

@direfire:

your vote and activity has pretty much been naked too how is it different?

Two things:

1. I like it when players provide reasons for their votes, even if that reason is nonsensical RVS. With Honest's vote, I can't tell whether that vote was RVS or not.

2. This question is a little strange to me, because I can't easily see the reason for asking it. The purpose isn't, I assume, to ask why I voted for Honest rather than for myself. Is the reason to ask me to defend my actions so far? I thought that my stated reasons were good enough for this point in the game, but we can get into more specific things if necessary.

[Dierfire]

@Draynth

Two things:

1. I like it when players provide reasons for their votes, even if that reason is nonsensical RVS. With Honest's vote, I can't tell whether that vote was RVS or not.

You like it or you think it's a town sign?

I guess that I consider it helpful to Town, but it's not strongly indicative of alignment.

[Dierfire]

@Axwell

VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee for supporting such a terrible team

What do you think of his play thus far?

[Dierfire]

@Yuriko

30 is good but 32 not

What was good about 30? What was not good about 32?

[Dierfire]

Vote stays on Honest because he hasn't posted since the vote explaining why he should not be hammered. I will still violently go after whomever hammers him without warning, however.

It sounds as though you think that he would flip Town. Do you?

[Dierfire]

@Mod

I request that you prod Mason, please. I believe that it has been over 48 hours since his last post.

[Dierfire]

@Draynth @Yuriko

If Honest were not at L-1, would you cast a vote for him?

[Dierfire]

Probably not, no.

Which player would be a better vote?

[Dierfire]

I agree with Draynth in broad terms that Necargo's vote and reasoning is suspicious if Honest is Town. I'm still not convinced of that, however. In particular, from his recent series of posts, I'm not seeing how BBT was "too pushy" but Necargo is Town for being "vocal" (whatever that means).

[Dierfire]

@Draynth

I agree with Draynth in broad terms that Necargo's vote and reasoning is suspicious if Honest is Town. I'm still not convinced of that, however. In particular, from his recent series of posts, I'm not seeing how BBT was "too pushy" but Necargo is Town for being "vocal" (whatever that means).

Why do those two things make you unsure of Honest being town?
And why is Necargo's vote only suspicious if Honest is town?

If Necargo is pushing Honest using faulty logic, and is doing so because he is Mafia, then Honest should be Town, right? Unless you think that Necargo would make that same push on his partner?
Those other two things are really one thing--it feels arbitrary to read Necargo as Town for being "vocal" while voting BBT for being "too pushy" (unless Honest wishes to clarify those phrases in a way that makes more sense). The whole series of posts just seems...off. He's tossing out reads while saying that he doesn't know how to read people, and promising to post later in a way that makes me think that he's stalling.

[Dierfire]

Dier, can I get a brief reads list from you please?

In brief: Mason and Axwell are Null due to insufficient content. I'm leaning Town on BBT and Yuriko (both for apparent progression of reads). I remain suspicious of Honest and Necargo (Necargo is particularly suspicious if Honest is Town as mentioned previously). I need to read Zero and Draynth again.

PEDIT: I see that Necargo just posted but I don't have time to read that right now. I'll be back in a few hours.

[Dierfire]

All right, I'm back. I see that we are waiting on several people so I will go ahead with a more complete list of reads. Players and categories are listed in ascending order of suspicion. I'm leaving the two non-posters off of the list because I have nothing useful to say about them.

TOWN

BBT

started the game strongly by building wagons in RVS, which gave us some good information for later analysis. I see evidence that he is sorting the players internally in the series of posts beginning with 102.

Yuriko

appears to be working through reads. I thought that the questions directed at Zero in 21 and 29 were good. I have very complex feelings about 70: I disagree with its content, and continue to find Necargo suspicious. I disagree with BBT that the post itself was suspicious, however, especially because I cannot easily see the rationale for a Mafia player to say this of a Town player. If Yuriko and Necargo are both Mafia then we should lynch Necargo first anyway.

NULL

Draynth

is asking many questions, but some of them feel short-sighted. For example, asking Zero why he is opposed to RVS (17) and asking me about my phrasing (46) seem unlikely to advance the game or help him discern our alignments. On the other hand, I find his votes well-placed and his case on Necargo (93) was mostly good.

Zero

is a bit low on content. I'm not bothered by the lack of RVS or the discussion that it engendered, but I think that Zero missed a good opportunity to provide us some thoughts on his wagon in 30. I'd guess that he's reading his entire wagon as Town or Null, but I would have liked some more detailed thoughts.

MAFIA

Necargo

took an approach to Honest's wagon that doesn't make much sense to me. He placed the fourth vote on the wagon in 53 while claiming that Honest's vote was "odd" but did not expound on this. His attitude towards the hammer (106) was also strange to me, and I could easily see the attitude (automatic suspicion of the hammer vote regardless of the flip) coming from Mafia that placed the fourth vote on a Town player. I was thinking that Honest would have to be Town if Necargo were Mafia based on these factors, but I'm also suspicious of Honest.

Honest

had a bit of a weird entrance. If his initial vote on BBT (27) was because he found BBT's RVS wagons suspicious, then he should have said so. I found his later positive characterization of Necargo as "vocal" (91) incongruous with his vote on BBT. His latest series of posts seemed designed to stall, with professions of incompetence that, to me, seemed out of place for someone who has played a few games before (even if he did replace out of those games).

[Dierfire]

@Yuriko

If Yuriko and Necargo are both Mafia then we should lynch Necargo first anyway.

What suggested we are mafia together instead of town v mafia or town v town and why should we lynch necargoface first if we were mafia together?

Perhaps the context was unclear. This is mostly a response to BBT about 70 (BBT's point in 102). To me, it sounded like Town talking to Unknown, rather than Mafia talking to Town. The sentence quoted here is me acknowledging that it could perhaps be Mafia talking to Mafia--but I'd be more confident that Necargo would be Mafia, so that's the lynch that should happen first.

[Dierfire]

@Draynth

I understand that you have these two reads in ascending order of suspicion (Ie, Honest is scummier), but isn't it contradictory to have them both as scum reads for D1? Do you think it's likely that they would bus each other on D1 if they were scum together?

You are correct that these two reads are largely mutually exclusive. If we were to lynch right this second, I'd like to lynch one of those two slots, but I'd want to see the flip and revise my read of the second before taking any further action.

[Dierfire]

@DWLee

Do people on mafia scum not post as much? I'm used to constant talk on forums I normally play mafia on..

We've given you five pages to read, but we only have two posts of yours, so it seems a bit unfair for you to criticize our posting frequency. My usually philosophy is that activity is created by sharing thoughts and asking questions. Which player(s) seem suspicious to you on the basis of the posting so far?

[Dierfire]

Anyway though, based on what I've read yuriko seems a bit suspicious to me because they haven't posted anything of much use. Other than that necargo is stating RVs when they're not that as his reasons later stated.

Never mind, apparently I can't even read two posts.

[Dierfire]

Anyway, I still feel as though you might have some more detailed thoughts to share with us.

[Dierfire]

@BBT

To my reads in 112 I would add that I liked Lowercase's entrance and didn't get much from DWLee's. Comments?

[Dierfire]

@DWL

Btw, I didn't vote zerosummer, so idk why it's there on the vote count..

You replaced a player who had cast a vote, and the replacement does not cause the vote to reset. If you're not intending to vote for Zero then you should remove the vote, and preferably change it to another player that you find suspicious.

[Dierfire]

@Lowercase

Ok, I think I've got an idea of where I want the game to go. First off, I think we should lynch a lurker

I think that your vote is on BBT currently (replacing Axwell). Perhaps you'd like to move it to a different player?

[Dierfire]

@Yuriko

Wtf did he just called my vote OMGUS why is there not more votes on him

I'm not convinced that DWL calling your vote OMGUS is a sign that he is Mafia. Could you elaborate?

[Dierfire]

I'm with Lowercase and Yuriko about this "two of us" business. I never read that as anything other than a comment about the two people that hadn't confirmed by that point. I'll agree that Yuriko has been posting in a suspicious manner recently. I'll take a look at that in a bit but first I have to update my notes because I'm losing track of the replacements.

[Dierfire]

@Yuriko

@direfire:

because he totally ignored my case on him

I'm not sure that this answers my question:

Wtf did he just called my vote OMGUS why is there not more votes on him

I'm not convinced that DWL calling your vote OMGUS is a sign that he is Mafia. Could you elaborate?

Is this your full case here?

I barely realized that mansonP has already been replaced. his replacement came in, drop a word and then going away. he's cherry-picking people to comment on, saying i'm not of use and conveniently commented on necargo's "RV" which was already much discussed, while not adding anything to it. Even worse, he's gone. As if I would need more reasons to vote him.

vote: dwlee

p.s. it's really ironic that he complained about people not posting while he himself has disappeared

I'd like to ask you to provide your impressions of the other players that recently replaced: Mathilda (replacing Honest), Lowercase (replacing Axwell), and Gratuitous (replacing Zero) and tell me why DWL's entrance was worse.

[Dierfire]

@Yuriko

I'd like to ask you to provide your impressions of the other players that recently replaced: Mathilda (replacing Honest), Lowercase (replacing Axwell), and Gratuitous (replacing Zero) and tell me why DWL's entrance was worse.

[Dierfire]

@Draynth

I still think Necargoface is the scummiest person in the game. I outlined my initial case in 93.
For those who don't see this slot as scummy, could you explain why?

I sort of already answered this, but I want it noted: I agree that Necargo's behavior is suspicious but I'd still rather see Honest's slot (Mathilda now) flip first.

[Dierfire]

@Mathilda

I don't disagree. I'm leaning scum on Yuri as well, but I always question myself and try to re-evaluate my conclusions to see if there is something that I am missing. I suppose for me the main problem with her posts has been how they have been light on content. There's no real sense that she's actively trying to find out who the Mafia are. It's easy to just question everything without any actually adding anything. It just adds to the confusion and distracts town. I would vote for her.

I feel that Draynth, BBT, Dierfier, Lowercase are town. I am neutral on you, dwlee99 and necargoface. I need to examine all your posts in more detail.

I find your stated justification for suspecting Yuriko (because she has been light on content) to be troubling coming from your slot. Your 205 sounded less confident than you do now, and your posts between have primarily concerned arguing against a proposal for a policy lynch that actually didn't get much traction. What has caused the change in your read? Also, what is the basis of your reads on Necargo and Draynth?

[Dierfire]

@All

I will have limited access on Thursday and Friday of this week (the day after tomorrow and the day after that). I will return to normal levels of access over the weekend and will be around over the day leading up to the deadline, although I'm not certain that I'll be around in the last few hours before the deadline.

The deadline is drawing closer. I think that it would be good for anyone not currently casting a vote to either cast a vote or, if this is otherwise inadvisable (if the target is already at L-1, for example), to clearly state their preference for a vote.

[Dierfire]

I sort of already answered this, but I want it noted: I agree that Necargo's behavior is suspicious but I'd still rather see Honest's slot (Mathilda now) flip first.

Any particular reasons why or are you just going to cast suspicion on one slot? I can see why you'd be suspicious of Honest. He didn't say much. He didn't justify himself. He basically floundered. But I have been trying to actively hunt scum. I'm not just trying to appear to hunt scum.

I want to see you flip first because I think that, on aggregate, your slot is more suspicious than Necargo's. Were you looking for reasons why I found you suspicious beyond just replacing Honest? Those are in the next post that you yourself quoted.

@Mathilda

I find your stated justification for suspecting Yuriko (because she has been light on content) to be troubling coming from your slot. Your 205 sounded less confident than you do now, and your posts between have primarily concerned arguing against a proposal for a policy lynch that actually didn't get much traction. What has caused the change in your read? Also, what is the basis of your reads on Necargo and Draynth?

You say it is troubling but don't say why. This could be seen as a way of making someone seem suspicious by colouring other people's opinions without giving any particular justification.

Perhaps the progression was unclear here. It is suspicious for you to claim to suspect Yuriko based on a lack of content because Honest was also light on content (as you acknowledge). If you received a PM saying that you are Town, then you'd know that Honest's posting came from Town, and you'd know better than to center your suspicion on a simple lack of content. The rest of 219 is vague, so I'm assuming that you didn't have anything more specific or convincing to say.

It's natural to start off sceptical, to then gather more evidence over time and start to form a more concrete opinion. That happens when you gather evidence. I do not see why it is troubling to suspect someone because they are light on content. Honest may have been light on content but I have not. Yuriko has been light on content but now she's posted #229 where she has actually put out a read list and put forward conjectures that we can evaluate, so that helps swing her a little more townwards.

I don't have any confidence in any of my reads. I'm a scientist in real life and I prefer to be more sure of my conclusions. It's also a profession where you have to constantly question yourself. I have seen people perform McCarthy style witch hunts in this game. Someone does something that could be construed as slightly scummy, another player then looks for more evidence but without taking into account their own confirmation bias. By the end of the day phase everything that the player does or says is construed as being scummy regardless of whether it contradicts previous accusations, they get lynched and flip town.

These two paragraphs feel off to me. Much of this seems to be fluff to me, and it seems to be used to obscure an answer to the question (why did the read on Yuriko change in the few hours between 205 and 219?) or at least to answer a different question than the one that I asked. I didn't ask why reads might change in general--I asked why your read on Yuriko had changed (grown more confident).

Yes I did instinctively argue against a policy lynch. But if you notice, after thinking through all the reasons why some newbies may quit,

iff

lowercase is right (and I don't know that he is but he seems sure that the stats show policy lynches of newbie replacements show a slight tendency to hitting scum) then I have only ever argued using this as further evidence for lynching someone. Not as a reason in itself to lynch someone. I have not changed my mind on this. Are you accusing me of fluffing by talking about general game mechanics with regard to policy lynches? If so then my answer to this is that I am concerned that by only considering a subset of slots that we may be ignoring more salient data that can be gleaned from this game.

You are correct--I'm saying that you were arguing against a policy lynch that will not happen when you could have been discussing a lynch that will happen. Even the characterization of Lowercase's proposal as a policy lynch is a little misleading, because his proposal (141) was more specific than just "a lurker" (he mentioned DWL and Zero), but you chose not to address his reasoning for those two players.

As for the basis of my reads on Draynth and Necargo. The general impression that I have is that Draynth is actively scum hunting whereas necargoface is not. Yes, people keep coming back to the whole RV business, but that doesn't mean to say that you can't move the topic on by yourself and start questioning other people.

In the absence of any contradictions or anything overtly scummy, I'm basing my reads on how actively people seem to be scum hunting. Do they look like they are trying to figure it out? Do they look like scum trying to give the appearance of scum hunting by questioning everything and not putting their necks on the line? Can you suggest anything else I could be doing to hunt scum? I would be happy to hear any suggestions that you may have.

I was hoping for more specific things--basing reads on "general impressions" makes it harder to evaluate their authenticity.

[Dierfire]

@BBT

Dier, I don't believe you got around to looking at Yuri's scummy posting; can you do so now?

I did look at it; that's why I wanted to ask her some more questions in 195. Her answers were not great, particularly her not-really-a-read on Gratuitous in 229. From earlier, I thought that 149 and the follow-up (157) felt off and she never really answered why she thought that DWL would be Mafia.
She's no longer near the top of my list. I think that ranking her near Necargo in terms of suspicion is appropriate.

[Dierfire]

I see from the recent posts that DWL is at L-1 and Lowercase has preemptively stated intent. I think that the lynch is fairly good--my preferred alternative would be Mathilda and I'd be willing to compromise on Yuriko or Necargo.

[Dierfire]

@All

As previously mentioned, I have limited access for the next two days. We have some time before the deadline so I'd prefer that the lynch wait until I get back unless it's clear that there's nothing more to say.

[Dierfire]

Ah, well played! I'll admit, Yuriko, you were not really on my radar.

[Dierfire]

I'm also going to pretend that my bad play won us the game. 100%

Don't you mean your excellent and intentionally deceiving play?

[Dierfire]

Ha ha, I really like positions that include "chief" in their titles.

[Dierfire]

I really dislike anything described as political, but especially disasters!