Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Gratuitous]

First, thanks to fferyllt for having me. Glad to join in here!

On to business:
UNVOTE: Honest

Upon my first read over, the player who has stuck out the most to me in a bad way is YurikoJasmine.
I don't like the sequence at #54 & #60, where she calls Necargo out for putting Honest at L-1 in #54 (never mind the fact she was part of an even earlier L-1 wagon, and didn't say anything about that one), but then waits 4+ hours until posts #60 to attach some flimsy rational and make the vote. This isn't progression of a read, it was testing the air at #54, and then waiting until after Draynth and Dierfire also pressure the same thing before placing the vote.

Additionally, her posts at #98 & #99 are strange as well, as in #98 she says she would not have voted Honest if he hadn't already been L-1, but then doubtcasts Honest in the next post (#99).

Additionally I concur with BBT's #153.

VOTE: YurikoJasmine

[Gratuitous]

The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

This seems like it could be true, but in practice you never make friends by suggesting a policy lynch like that. More importantly though, there is a good reason to lynch the way I'm suggesting. The fact is that town has a pretty abysmal level of accuracy according to newbie game statistics (at least last time I checked). It turns out that a lynching a random replacement into a newbie slot is more likely to hit scum than a typical day one lynch (which in turn is about as likely to be scum as a random player). This is one reason I'm not crazy about lynching Yuriko; I'm just not sure I buy that her behavior is strongly indicative of scum, even though I see where her detractors are coming from.

I think we should probably lynch gratuitous. The way ZS replaced out is profoundly scummy and gratuitous's replace in is pretty scummy as well. I've already talked about why I think the replace out is bad. Gratuitous replaced in, and immediately voted the most popular wagon while reiterating points that had already been made in the thread and making no other contribution. At the very least, this is not something that should escape scrutiny.

VOTE: gratuitous

Actually I specifically typed out my two main points (the first two) because I hadn't remembered seeing anyone make either of those points. I noted in the third that I agreed with previous points.

Heck, by the logic you're using, why don't we lynch you for replacing in as well. That's just a dumb angle in my opinion and from my exp on my old site.

I don't like your positioning around the Yuri wagon though. Like, 'yeah, I can see where you're all coming from but I just think Yuri is town'. If you can see where we are coming from; how are you coming to a different conclusion?

QFE

[Gratuitous]

I concur that the "us" thing is a minor/negligible issue, but there is more than enough reasoning outside of it for Yuriko to be lynched

[Gratuitous]

@Gratuitous: You make two points against Yuriko. The first one boils down to calling Yuriko's reason for voting cargo flimsy, which I pointed out myself. You also mention the timing which is admittedly new, but I don't really see how it is relevant.

BBT draws attention to post 99 just before voting Yuriko, but I guess you're right that these things aren't explicitly mentioned.

I'll grant that I was wrong about your post being a reiteration, but my fundamental issue is that you immediately take the easiest stance available. I still don't even know what you think about anyone other than Yuriko.

As for your second point, I was mainly criticizing the manner in which ZS replaced out; that's why I'm not suggesting we lynch Mathilda or Draynth. The reasons someone replaced out are just as valid for getting a read as anything else. People like to say things like 'replacing out is null' and the like, but that's essentially the same as saying 'voting is null.' The context is key.

p-edit: Suppose we don't lynch Yuriko. Who should we lynch?

The timing is relevant because it would have been far more towny to immediately lead with the vote, instead of waiting for others to chime in with agreeing sentiments before placing it. That screams of running a possible wagon up the flagpole to see if would be accepted before committing to it.

As for the the replacement, I don't know why ZS replaced out either, but I do have the advantage of knowing what ZS's (and now my) rolecard is, and that ZS/I am town. You're basically saying because ZS posted a bit before asking for replacement, it makes this slot far scummier than the ones who either didn't post, or just through up a random vote before asking for replacement... That's just weak.

[Gratuitous]

@Mathilda: See #162 for the bulk of my reasoning.

If you disagree, who do you think is scum?

[Gratuitous]

@Lowercase, I know what you're saying with him. At this point I just can't see YJ & DWlee as scum together, and believe YJ is most likely to flip scum

[Gratuitous]

FYI: I will be V/LA from Thurs (8/6) aft to Saturday (8/8) afternoon

[Gratuitous]

Where I stand at the moment:

Gratuitous
Townish: BBT, Dierfire, Lowercase
Null: Mathilda
Watching with concern: Necargo, Draynth
Scummy: Yuriko, Dwlee

[Gratuitous]

@Yuriko #269: I still believe what I said in #223 about you & dwlee being unaligned. I generally haven't had much luck with team-hunting in the past, so will decline to attempt it at this moment.

[Gratuitous]

FYI: I will be V/LA from Thurs (8/6) aft to Saturday (8/8) afternoon

Actually, I think I was a smidgeon overly antagonistic in that last post. Nonetheless, I would be happy to entertain your case on Grat. He's basically vanished and I don't really like his yuri or dwlee but not both thing.

Please, continue to doubt-cast me over an announced V/LA.

To answer the Yuri/Dwlee thing: Very simply, those two have been notably the two most scummy players so far in this game in my eyes. However, their play regarding each other has caused me to label them an un-aligned pair (I have serious doubts that the two scum in this set-up would attack each other so hard). Does that mean my reads aren't going change when we get a flip that gives us concrete information, no.

@Lowercase: Are you telling me you have a 80-100% read on someone then? To me, especially on day 1, there's no such thing outside of a N0 cop check or a mechanically provable claim (or you're scum who knows the roles anyway). Given the lack of concrete information, I'm not pretending I know everything, but am instead working with shades of grey.

[Gratuitous]

My read on Draynth comes from looking at his ISO, and my gut is screaming something is off there.

The exchange at the beginning #17 & #19, is a little off to me where he goes from "I don't have any reason to jump on the wagon without asking questions" and asks a question to ZS, and then without a response in #19 votes anyway after mild urging from BBT, just feels a bit off to me.

Also looking through his ISO, he remained heavily focused on Necargo. That in itself isn't really a tell, albeit such singularity is surprising from one of the SE slots, but reading through, it feels like he resisted commenting on too many other players so far.

Furthermore: it feels like he kinda soft-defended Dwlee in #310

I do realize that. What I'm pointing out is that you clearly are not playing to your win con if you were town

That's not necessarily true. If we decided to lynch you today and you flipped scum, we could get some associate tells.He's trying to hunt scum, I'm not saying I agree with him but if he is town he is playing to his win con IMO

As you can see, there's no real single piece that makes him definitely scum, but together some of these things feel like a cause for concern, which is why I had him as "watching with concern" instead of a scum read

[Gratuitous]

Just for reference, it was MasonP, not dwlee that cast the L-1 vote on ZeroSummer on page 1. While it is the same slot, it's probably a bad idea to speculate dwlee's play on a vote that he didn't cast.

Given Dwlee's flip, I've been working mostly by POE:

Gratutious
Yuriko
BBT, Lowercase,
Mathilda
Draynth, Shaddowez

I'd be willing to lynch from Mathilda down today, but would prefer to lynch on of the bottom two. I pointed out a few things on Draynth yesterday, and looking over his iso, he's failed to deliver on promised reads a few times, and his iso shows he did a lot to avoid the Yuriko/dwlee debate that popped up.

As for shaddowez, I think if anyone was bussing on D1 it was most likely him. Note how Shaddowez comes out swinging at Dwlee in #272, and then in #350:

I am also beginning to be unsure of Lee, as he may just be a complete newb and unsure how to play. That being said, I don't know that for a fact, and am still willing to vote him since at the least he's a hindrance to town at this point.

which feels a lot like he's trying to see if he can get people to agree and start moving off Dwlee, while not committing to lead the way, and hoping for the town-cred if nothing changes and dwlee flips.

BTW Shaddowez, what exactly is so scummy about calling someone an unaligned pair? It was pretty clear at the time. Funny though how you now point to a D1 scumread on yuriko as a scummy thing, does this look familliar?

UNVOTE:
My strongest scumread is definitely dwlee. His introductory post, 119, has absolutely nothing of substance yet finds Yuri suspicious for not having posted anything of much use. While that's personal belief, she already had 20 posts before dwlee's entrance which makes it hard for me to believe that he actually had a basis for that statement. Yuri was also the most recent vote by BBT in 105, and without actually voting for either of his "suspicious" people screams out to me as sheeping and not actually trying to figure anything out.

The rest of his posts are complete fluff, focusing on the OMGUS vote (which wasn't an OMGUS vote).

VOTE: dwlee99

Most of my remaining reads are null, with Yuri and LC being slight scumreads.

Calling Dwlee scum (and voting him), while also calling Yuriko scummy, boy that "makes my skin crawl" to borrow your words...

[Gratuitous]

For the moment I'm going to go with my gut: VOTE: Draynth

FYI, I will be very limited posting or completely V/LA tomorrow, working a double-shift

[Gratuitous]

BTW Shaddowez, what exactly is so scummy about calling someone an unaligned pair?

Calling Dwlee scum (and voting him), while also calling Yuriko scummy, boy that "makes my skin crawl" to borrow your words...

Ah, context, it's a beautiful thing. There's absolutely nothing wrong with calling out two reads as an unaligned pair - it doesn't really make sense to me in a game where you know that it's not multiball, but it's not scummy in and of itself. There's also nothing wrong with having two scumreads and only voting for one, since, well, you can only vote for one.

What you're failing to address is what I quoted in my previous post. the fact that you specifically said you find both scummy, ignored the dwlee wagon, and said you find Yuri more likely to flip scum between the two.

Maybe it's just an a terminology difference, my home site rarely played any sort of multi-ball beyond group scum + 3p Surv/SK/Souper, and the term "unaligned pairs" was often used to try and separate players who weren't scum together.

Your first paragraph contradicts your second one though. It was not a difficult situation to understand, and I don't see why you're rehashing questions already answered. Very simply, at the that point those two were my top 2 scum reads at the time, albeit as I pointed out I didn't think they would be on the same team (an unaligned pair). Yes, I was voting for YJ who I had as my top scum-read at the time, as you point out, I can only vote for one person at a time. With hindsight, was I incorrect about which one of them would flip scum, yes.

[Gratuitous]

Also a quick VC:

Draynth (3, L-1): BBT (#424), Gratuitous (#439), Mathilda (#441)
Gratuitous (1, L-3): Shaddowez (#415)

Not Voting: Yuriko, Draynth, Lowercase

[Gratuitous]

Prod-dodge, Had something pop up yesterday, will be back tonight

[Gratuitous]

I think so but am unsure why the day hasn't been ended then?

[Gratuitous]

I'll bite Lowercase, elaborate, because I'm sick of your tunnel on me. I'll be the first to admit I obviously haven't had the best reads as my voting record can attest, but you have never stated a true case that isn't "scummy b/c of replace-in," which fits yourself I might add, doubt-casting and my poor results. If my presence in a potential final 3 (should we not end it today), would be too disturbing to town to get a win, then fine I get it, and in that case I'd prefer to be lynched if it narrows done the possibilities and allows town to prevail.

I've already explained my D1 actions, yet you continue to beat a dead horse. Day 2 I stood up and led the way with the best read I had. I noticed your subtle defense of Draynth in #468, you know something we didn't?

[Gratuitous]

Grat

- What sorts of reads do you have now? On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(

scum

), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(

town

), not Yuri. It's also interesting to note where you put Mathilda on your want lynched list in 438. Outside of your arguments that it's most likely I bussed dwlee, and LC tunneling you, do you have anything to offer?

Why would I have voted for Yuri D2 exactly? As you point out in #294 I had said I didn't think Yuri and Dwlee were scum together based upon their interactions (un-aligned pair), so Dwlee flipping scum removed my suspicion of Yuri.

As for what it appears you're implying with Mathilda on my list in #438, if I was scum, why would I have NK'd someone 1) I thought was a lynch target, 2) Was reasonable enough to listen to my points on D2. The NK pattern is strange to me, because unless scum is seeing something I'm not for alignments, I'm not really sure where the NK pattern is. Frankly, I would have thought Yuriko would've gotten shot as nearly conf!town.

[Gratuitous]

LC

- Do you think BBT is just having a hard time reading this game, or do you think his reads have been intentionally bad?

I'm not actually looking for a BBT lynch.

@Shaddowez: I'm a little bit curious how in two posts you go from asking that question (implying BBT's read are intentionally bad, which would indicate thinking he's scum) to saying you aren't looking for a BBT lynch. Do you think BBT is scum or not? If not, please make a case for someone you think is.

On day 1 you voted Yuri over dwlee(scum), and in 294 sound like you still believe Yuri to be scum. Then, for D2 you vote Draynth(town), not Yuri.

I also think this question targeted at Grat is bad. It's like he's trying to agree with me by talking about Grat's Yuriko read, but missing the point.

Concurred.

With Shaddowez at L-1 (as per Lowercase vote post), I am announcing intention to hammer

[Gratuitous]

Nothing further to add for me, here's the hammer

VOTE: Shaddowez

[Gratuitous]

Ok guys, we are in LYLO, so don't throw around votes unless you are willing to live or die with them.

@Yuriko: What are you're thoughts on where we stand atm. You really haven't taken control of the game despite your near conf!town status.

To me the BBT NK leaves 2 potential scenario's:

1) Lowercase is scum, killed BBT b/c he didn't expect to win a final 3 with BBT & myself or BBT & Yuriko, and will vote me, and hope he can convince Yuriko to go with it.

2) Yuriko is scum. Killed BBT with the expectation that Lowercase and I will vote each other, and she can hammer the game whenever someone drops a vote.

I'm leaning towards 1, since 2 seems unlikely given Day 1, but if it's 2 I'm going to be all kinds of pissed.

Lowercase & Yuriko, thoughts?

[Gratuitous]

@Yuriko, like he actually did. LC has been trying to mislynch me since Day 1 for flimsy reasoning. It's incredibly unlikely that he was going to come out and vote you after all.

[Gratuitous]

It's pretty bad how hard LC flipped on Shaddowez as well in retro-spect, he sheeps Shaddowez read on me in #442, than on D3 allows BBT to get him off his push on me, without much effort. Frankly LC, if you thought your #491 represented a stronger case than what you had on me from the entire game, well that says a lot about how bad you're case on me is.

[Gratuitous]

Furthermore, you go from shooting down speculation about the NK in #401, to using to aid your case in #491.

VOTE: Lowercase

[Gratuitous]

You have got to be kidding me. I was nail on the head D1.