Newbie 1633: The Daily Show-A Retrospective - GAME OVER

[Mathilda]

Hello all! Not long before I have to go to work but I will read through this thread on my tablet. Glad to be playing here!

[Mathilda]

I mean of course he's null. He has one post which is just a naked vote. We shouldn't hammer until he posts more though.

This. We shouldn't hammer Honest yet because he is a nul read to many, because many can't tell intentions when a person posts a total of 2(-4) words.

I like this post and not just because I am the replacement for Honest and am in the lead in the vote count, but because the motivation behind it is likely to be town. Scum would likely prefer to let the null player hang himself without any effort on their part. In an experienced game I might assune that this statement could be made by Scum to look more town, but this is a newbie game and while not everyone here is a newbie, your tactics must be targetted at players with the appropriate experience for them to work.

[Mathilda]

I'm also going to unvote Blue Blooded Toffee (mmm toffee ...). He seems to be interrogating necargoface quite well, looking at discrepancies or contradictions in post #102.

UNVOTE:


I also like Draynth's post interrogating necargoface in #93 although sometimes the attack seems a little contrived regarding the definition of an RV. But he raises good points regarding necargoface thinking that Honest (now me) was most probably scum whilst at the same time admitting that there is very little to go on. It could be seen as a way of reinforcing people's perceptions of someone without really saying anything in particular.

Although I liked how necargoface said that I shouldn't be hammered just yet in my previous post (#164), on further reflection, this isn't really saying much. On the one hand he's saying what we all know. We shouldn't be hammering anyone just yet. The whole point of random votes and lynch wagons is to put pressure on them to talk, to give information and for scum to slip up and reveal themselves. On the other hand this is a newbie game and we've had a few replacements already so we can't make any assumptions about the experience level of all the other players. For what it's worth though, I probably would have votes for Honest as well if I was another player.

I don't have a read on anybody else yet. It's confusing when the players keep changing. Give me time though and I shall supply some.

[Mathilda]

Ok, I think I've got an idea of where I want the game to go. First off, I think we should lynch a lurker; this game is to slow to justify any day one decisions that would slow it down further.

You started off well in my estimation when you joined by drawing attention to false attacks regarding RVs and you didn't jump on a bandwagon just because it was there, but I am suspicious of the desire for a policy lynch. We're making progress in this thread and you're suggesting a policy lynch instead of one based on evidence. The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

Lynching a lurker should always be a fall back position when we really can't decide on who to vote for. We're certainly not at that position yet and I feel that we are making progress interrogating people, seeing if they are pretending to help town but in reality not saying anything interesting, and whether they are subtly contradicting themselves.

[Mathilda]

I've been through all the pages now looking specifically at Yuriko's posts. What she says about being a non-native speaker and posting from a phone do hold up to scrutiny. I lived in Germany myself for three years and know what it's like when you get to the point where people can understand you and it takes them by surprise when you make a grammatical mistake. And sometimes it's just the ending of a word that changes to make it a verb or a noun or past tense or whatever. I've started posting on a tablet myself and it's certainly not as conducive to long posts as having a keyboard. So for that I can excuse Yuriko's short one liners that could be deemed evasive and committal. If I was posting in German I would be doing the same thing even with a keyboard.

I am concerned though about her comment regarding the two of us. The OP says that there are two Mafia. It could be a freudian slip (very easy to do in mafia and I have done it myself). Her post #111 isn't particularly convincing when she claimed she was referring to people that had not posted or were inactive. She herself has been quite active since the beginning of the game (posts 5, 8, 21, 28, 29, 34, 48, 54, 60, 70, 71, 72, 73, 97, 98, 99, 101, 111, 113, 135, 143, 143, 144, 149 and 157)

[Mathilda]

The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

This seems like it could be true, but in practice you never make friends by suggesting a policy lynch like that. More importantly though, there is a good reason to lynch the way I'm suggesting. The fact is that town has a pretty abysmal level of accuracy according to newbie game statistics (at least last time I checked).

It turns out that a lynching a random replacement into a newbie slot is more likely to hit scum than a typical day one lynch

(my bold)

This is possible, I certainly don't know myself, but let's examine the reasons why this would be the case.

A newbie can flake out for many reasons but let's stick to the ones that are relevant. Off the top of my head I could imagine them as:

1) They get bored
2) They find it all too confusing
3) Things start going badly for them and they give up before because they have lost any sense of reward from playing

Please add more reasons if you can think of them. There are two cases, the newbie is either town or they are scum.

1) A Vanilla Townie will be more likely to get bored than scum because they don't feel that their role is important and they do not have a night action
2) It doesn't matter to scum if they find the process of scum-hunting too confusing because they don't actually want it to be successful. Whereas that's entirely what the townie newbie needs to do, especially a VT. Town is more likely to quit because they are confused.
3) Scum are more likely to give up if things are going badly for them because faking sincerity is difficult over very long periods and it can be extremely frustrating when everyone thinks that you're scum and you have no idea how they came to that conclusion. On the other hand town power roles are also likely to give up if they think they're about to be lynched for something arbitrary and this could lose the game. It is less likely that town will quit because they are not winning than scum though.

The next question then, is which of the three causes happens most frequently. I don't know but this analysis does tell me that a policy lynch for replacements may only marginally hit scum more often than town at best because of scenario 3. But on the other hand if we combine it with knowledge of how the replacement is acting and what they are saying then it can be yet one more piece of evidence that we can use.

tl,dr: policy lynch may possibly have a marginal improvement on chance and at best should only be taken as a recommendation

[Mathilda]

I concur that the "us" thing is a minor/negligible issue, but there is more than enough reasoning outside of it for Yuriko to be lynched

Such as? I don't recall you saying anything except that I "didn't say anything of use" or sth like that

I would also like to know the answer to this question.

We're all just reaching in the dark at the moment trying to find anything to incriminate someone no matter how minor. Yuriko has plausible explanations for everything counting against her (the slip up with 'us', short posts because she is on a phone and not a native speaker). I would be interested to see if there was anything definite against her such as a contradiction or her story changing.

At the moment the most damning thing about her posts is that you can look at them and say that she hasn't really done any scum hunting. If she was scum then she would do well with the posts that she has made to just give the appearance of playing at town. That in itself is actually worthy of being lynched. But can we make that same accusation about other players on here to the same extent? What do the rest of you think?

[Mathilda]

It is less likely that town will quit because they are not winning than scum though.

all four newbies have been replaced (/meh).

They can't all be scum

, so your post is basically void unless you can come up with a way to distinguish the four replacements

That was my point.

[Mathilda]

To summarise what I was saying:

There are three relevant reasons why newbies quit

1) They get bored
2) It's too confusing
3) They're losing

1) Townies are more likely to quit than scum
2) Townies are more likely to quit than scum
3) Scum are more likely to quit but possibly townie power roles too

[Mathilda]

@Mathilda: See #162 for the bulk of my reasoning.

If you disagree, who do you think is scum?

I don't disagree. I'm leaning scum on Yuri as well, but I always question myself and try to re-evaluate my conclusions to see if there is something that I am missing. I suppose for me the main problem with her posts has been how they have been light on content. There's no real sense that she's actively trying to find out who the Mafia are. It's easy to just question everything without any actually adding anything. It just adds to the confusion and distracts town. I would vote for her.

I feel that Draynth, BBT, Dierfier, Lowercase are town. I am neutral on you, dwlee99 and necargoface. I need to examine all your posts in more detail.

[Mathilda]

If I was going to hazard a guess right now at the second Mafia I would suggest necargoface.

[Mathilda]

@Draynth

I still think Necargoface is the scummiest person in the game. I outlined my initial case in 93.
For those who don't see this slot as scummy, could you explain why?

I sort of already answered this, but I want it noted: I agree that Necargo's behavior is suspicious but I'd still rather see Honest's slot (Mathilda now) flip first.

Any particular reasons why or are you just going to cast suspicion on one slot? I can see why you'd be suspicious of Honest. He didn't say much. He didn't justify himself. He basically floundered. But I have been trying to actively hunt scum. I'm not just trying to appear to hunt scum.

[Mathilda]

@Mathilda

I find your stated justification for suspecting Yuriko (because she has been light on content) to be troubling coming from your slot. Your 205 sounded less confident than you do now, and your posts between have primarily concerned arguing against a proposal for a policy lynch that actually didn't get much traction. What has caused the change in your read? Also, what is the basis of your reads on Necargo and Draynth?

You say it is troubling but don't say why. This could be seen as a way of making someone seem suspicious by colouring other people's opinions without giving any particular justification.

It's natural to start off sceptical, to then gather more evidence over time and start to form a more concrete opinion. That happens when you gather evidence. I do not see why it is troubling to suspect someone because they are light on content. Honest may have been light on content but I have not. Yuriko has been light on content but now she's posted #229 where she has actually put out a read list and put forward conjectures that we can evaluate, so that helps swing her a little more townwards.

I don't have any confidence in any of my reads. I'm a scientist in real life and I prefer to be more sure of my conclusions. It's also a profession where you have to constantly question yourself. I have seen people perform McCarthy style witch hunts in this game. Someone does something that could be construed as slightly scummy, another player then looks for more evidence but without taking into account their own confirmation bias. By the end of the day phase everything that the player does or says is construed as being scummy regardless of whether it contradicts previous accusations, they get lynched and flip town.

Yes I did instinctively argue against a policy lynch. But if you notice, after thinking through all the reasons why some newbies may quit,

iff

lowercase is right (and I don't know that he is but he seems sure that the stats show policy lynches of newbie replacements show a slight tendency to hitting scum) then I have only ever argued using this as further evidence for lynching someone. Not as a reason in itself to lynch someone. I have not changed my mind on this. Are you accusing me of fluffing by talking about general game mechanics with regard to policy lynches? If so then my answer to this is that I am concerned that by only considering a subset of slots that we may be ignoring more salient data that can be gleaned from this game.

As for the basis of my reads on Draynth and Necargo. The general impression that I have is that Draynth is actively scum hunting whereas necargoface is not. Yes, people keep coming back to the whole RV business, but that doesn't mean to say that you can't move the topic on by yourself and start questioning other people.

In the absence of any contradictions or anything overtly scummy, I'm basing my reads on how actively people seem to be scum hunting. Do they look like they are trying to figure it out? Do they look like scum trying to give the appearance of scum hunting by questioning everything and not putting their necks on the line? Can you suggest anything else I could be doing to hunt scum? I would be happy to hear any suggestions that you may have.

I need to look at dwlee's posts first before making a judgement on him. I will do that today if I have time.

[Mathilda]

I've now gone through all of dierfire's posts and also dwlee / MasonP. dwlee/MasonP have been even more content-light than Yuriko so he's propelled his way to my number one scum slot. I count a total of 10 posts in total from this slot which basically revolve around the issue of Omgussing and counter-omgussing. The posts are mainly defensive in tone rather than involve any active scum hunting.

#145 is particularly worrying when dwlee says he actually forgot that he was playing this game.

I have also been through dierfire's posts. I am leaning neutral on him for now whereas I used to lean town on him before. Most of his questions are generic. By that I mean they are like a guide trying to get people to talk but he's not really putting any conjectures forward himself. He does not justify his accusations yet demands that everyone else justifies themselves. In fact in #35 he says that he likes it when town gives a reason even for a silly RV because this helps town #49. He flips between preferring to lynch either my slot or necargoface and has done so from the very beginning even before I joined the game. This could be a sign of someone suffering from confirmation bias. Or it could be scum hiding behind being a facilitator playing like an Inexperienced Challenge by getting other people to make themselves targets while flooding the thread with posts that look helpful.

I am still suspicious of necargoface because he's also been very defensive and has since gone quite quiet. It's like he got a shock from sticking his neck up above the parapet and then decided it was safer to not draw attention to himself and so now only comes on when his name is specifically mentioned.

Read list:

#1 scum dwlee
#2 scum necargoface

Neutral
Yuriko, dierfire

Town
Everyone else

[Mathilda]

Can we have a Vote count please? I don't want to vote for someone who is already at L-1 and initiate a ban hammer. Is it safe for me to vote dwlee? If so then I will vote for him.

[Mathilda]

Just to clarify, I don't want to cause the ban hammer to fall until a consensus has been reached and the accused has a chance to defend himself.

[Mathilda]

VOTE: Dwlee99

[Mathilda]

Perhaps the progression was unclear here. It is suspicious for you to claim to suspect Yuriko based on a lack of content because Honest was also light on content (as you acknowledge). If you received a PM saying that you are Town, then you'd know that Honest's posting came from Town, and you'd know better than to center your suspicion on a simple lack of content. The rest of 219 is vague, so I'm assuming that you didn't have anything more specific or convincing to say.

But Honest and Yuriko were very different in their posting styles. Honest didn't post much at all whereas Yuriko has posted a lot. But Yuriko has not posted much that is informative. That is what I mean by content light. You can have lots of data but very little information.

I recognise that no matter what I say to you, it will only confirm in your mind that I am scum. You are one of these players that once they come to a conclusion they stick with it until they are proven wrong because of a flip. You appear to suffer from confirmation bias.

Ask yourself this. Is there anything I can do in this game now to convince you that I am indeed town? Try to imagine what that would be.

It amuses me to know that if you do manage to get a successful lynch wagon on me that you will be the next to be lynched. I know that because I know that I am town and you have been the one who has fixated on this slot to a greater degree than any other player in this game.

Now your reaction to this will be interesting. Do you back off? If so then this makes you look like scum wanting to stay alive. But knowing this as scum you'd have to continue down your dangerous course and bringing a lynch upon yourself. And if you're town, well maybe you need to start looking at the bigger picture and helping us all out.

[Mathilda]

Plus the way Mathilda puts the scum assumption forward, though she scum reads dwlee and necargoface strucks me a bit

I never said Dierfire was scum, but nor do I know that he isn't. His confirmation bias suggests to me that he is town though because scum would be more opportunistic. But then he has been trying to paint a general impression about me rather than come up with anything concrete so he if was scum then it would probably be because he thought that he was being more subtle than he actually was.

I'm not so sure now about necargoface now and that's purely because of the second replacement. I have a theory that I don't particularly want to share at this point in time and if true it would mean that the necargoface slot is town.

At the moment the only person I am prepared to vote for is dwlee.

[Mathilda]

^total AtE

This wasn't a total appeal to emotion:

But Honest and Yuriko were very different in their posting styles. Honest didn't post much at all whereas Yuriko has posted a lot. But Yuriko has not posted much that is informative. That is what I mean by content light. You can have lots of data but very little information.

The rest of my post

was

an appeal to emotion and works if Direfire is scum. It's not in our interests to lynch town today. If Dierfire is town then I need to appeal to emotion because his investigation is being driven by emotion.

I want to make it clear to everyone that if I get lynched that you all then need to lynch Dierfire when I flip Town.

[Mathilda]

Sorry scrap that last sentence. If Dierfire is town and driven by emotion then it won't help to lynch him either. I was having a brain fart at that point because I got distracted at work.

[Mathilda]

I'm just pretty amused by the fact that you put the scum assumption before the town assumption

Also you do realize stating willingness to vote dwlee only is quite a safe harbor given he's at l-1 with lowercase stated his intent to hammer already

I voted for dwlee when he wasn't at L-1. I also stated earlier that I hadn't looked at his posts. Then when I did look at his posts more carefully (at the same time I went through looking at Dierfire's posts) I decided to then vote for him. BBT asked why I hadn't voted for him and I said that I wasn't sure what the current vote count was and didn't want to accidentally cause a ban hammer without consensus from everyone else first or a proper defense from dwlee.

[Mathilda]

I realise that I am playing slightly scummy right now and I certainly wouldn't be doing that if I was Scum. But if Dierface is town then we need him considering other people as well rather than just me and shaddowez / necargoface's slot. I don't want to spend all my time having to defend myself from someone fixated on me when I could be scum hunting.

dwlee is my only scum read at the moment. You and Dierface are neutral. Everyone else is town in my ever fluctuating opinion. I may be wrong about shaddowez / necargoface but I am sticking with my hypothesis for now, especially in light of shaddowez's introductory posts. Also necargoface's posts when he greeted me to the thread. He seemed genuinely pleased that we had new active players in the thread.

[Mathilda]

I don't see any reason to drag this out; I want a claim from dwlee.

Sounds good to me. Can't believe how long these games last. It's still the first day. No wonder people drop out.

[Mathilda]

You know in Asian culture to "do" someone means to kill him

To "do" someone in Western culture means to have sex with them.

I shall bear that in mind next time I go to an Asian country.

[Mathilda]

@mathilda:

in Chinese we call that to "eat" someone

Is that all you have to say? After all these you decided to reply to my off-topic statement?

I was just trying to lighten up the mood. Is that a problem?

[Mathilda]

UNVOTE:

Something doesn't feel right here and I think there is more discussion to be had.

One could argue that what you have done is a scummy move. If you were Mafia and you knew that dwlee was town, then you basically start a lynch wagon by being the second to vote (not the first, that's too dangerous, Yuri would get the blame in this scenario, someone who is also pinging people's scumdar, and one vote does not a lynch wagon make). And then when you're confident that the wagon can roll without you, you jump off without giving any specific reason why you have changed your mind and are then free of blame when the flip happens.

So I'm interested, what specifically feels off to you? Unvoting doesn't stop us exploring other possibilities unless you think that the chance of the ban hammer falling high. Or do you think we were becoming too complacent that we have chosen the right person?

[Mathilda]

Mathilda, do you think the threat of a hammer was imminent? Because I do.

Fair enough, I do think a hammer vote was imminent. I take it then that you are leaning neutral on dwlee?

[Mathilda]

@mathilda: no, but I'd like to hear from you re: alternative lynch

I don't have an alternative vote unfortunately. It was necargoface / shadow-something but I have a suspicion that they may be town because of the amount of replacements for this slot so I am not comfortable voting for them just yet.

[Mathilda]

I have listed the order that the lynch wagons formed. A name in square brackets is an unvote and is removed from the vote count next time that person is listed. Because there have been replacements I have listed future players on the same slot. But once a replacement has been made and a new vote cast, the old player name is no longer used.

Apologies for any mistakes. If you spot any then I can correct the list and re-post it.

Page 1:
BBT: Yuriko
MasonP/dwlee99 : Dierfire
BBT: [Yuriko]
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT
Honest/Mathilda: Draynth
Honest/Mathilda: [Draynth]
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth, MasonP/dwlee99


Page 2:
BBT: Honest/Mathilda
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous
MasonP/dwlee99 : [Dierfire]
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire
BBT: Honest/Mathilda, Axwell/Lowercase
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, [Draynth], MasonP/dwlee99


Page 3:
Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [Yuriko], BBT, MasonP/dwlee99
necargoface/shaddowwez: Yuriko
necargoface/shaddowwez: [Yuriko]


Page 4:
necargoface/shaddowwez: Draynth
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [BBT], MasonP/dwlee99


Page 5:
Yuriko: BBT

Dwlee replaces MasonP
Lowercase replaces Axwell


Page 6:
dwlee99 : Yuriko


Page7:
Zerosummer/Gratuitous: BBT, [MasonP/dwlee99]
Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99
BBT: Honest/Mathilda, [Axwell/Lowercase]

Gratuitous replaces zerosummer
Mathilda replaces Honest

Honest/Mathilda: [Zerosummer/Gratuitous], Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99, Gratuitous
BBT: [Honest/Mathilda]
Honest/Mathilda: Dierfire, BBT, [necargoface/shaddowwez]


Page 8:
Gratuitous: BBT, Lowercase


Page10:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT
dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda


Page 11:
shaddowwez replaces necargoface
dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda, shaddowwez


Page 13:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez


Page 15:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT


Page 16:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT, Lowercase

[Mathilda]

Sorry the last two days should have looked like this (I often forget to remove unvotes)

Page 15:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT


Page 16:
dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT, Lowercase

[Mathilda]

I find Dierfire a strange choice. You'd think that Yuriko would be assassinated because she was the first to vote for dwlee99 (on page 6) and kept her vote until the end. This makes her the most town and therefore cannot easily be lynched. The only one that voted for dwlee that could be Mafia would be Lowercase if you think that he bussed his partner because he knew that the lynch was inevitable (I'm not accusing Lowercase of being Mafia, just speculating).

Probability then is that one of the remaining Mafia did not vote for dwlee, so why remove one of the potential suspects? Even if the remaining scum voted successfully for dwlee early on, you'd still want to keep the pool of better suspects available for a lynch.

This suggests to me that either the remaining Mafia is a beginner, or they suspected Dierfire of being a power role. I don't remember him hinting at it though.

Can the Mafia PM each other during the day? If not then it makes it less likely to be Yuriko bussing her partner because they would not have had a chance to talk about it. You would want to message your scum buddy before bussing them so they can deliberately implicate as many people as possible.

Or maybe it's a safe tactic do be the first to vote for your scum buddy because if there is no lynch wagon against them then no harm done. If there is a lynch wagon then you don't want to make yourself a target by defending them. And regardless of whether your scum buddy gets lynched or not, one way of determining who the Mafia are is to look at who is not accusing each other. That's a common trap to fall into. (Again, not suspecting Yuriko, just thinking through the possibilities).

[Mathilda]

Or maybe Dierfire was targetted to implicate me after my rant at him for being fixated on me. I was second on the vote list against dwlee (although third person to vote because BBT unvoted and then revoted) so that would make me difficult to accuse. If this is the case then the remaining Mafia is a probably not a beginner and is somewhat Machiavellian.

[Mathilda]

Thanks Lowercase, very helpful.

[Mathilda]

I started tallying up the order of votes in a game that I have just completed on another forum and we found it very useful in showing up who was being opportunistic and why people voted when they did. It's a lot of information in one post and I felt it better to have one post that is factual and to keep the speculation and hypotheses to a separate post. It also takes a fair while to collate those vote counts and to check for errors. This requires a completely different mindset. I am surprised that posting information that is helpful to town formatted in a way that allows one to quickly check hypotheses would merit a lynch vote.

[Mathilda]

That's what I meant with IIoA (information instead of analysis). It's not meaningful unless you have some analysis, which you don't.

Do you actually read posts?

It's a lot of information in one post and I felt it better to have one post that is factual and to keep the speculation and hypotheses to a separate post. It also takes a fair while to collate those vote counts and to check for errors. This requires a completely different mindset.

[Mathilda]

Analysis:

10 - MasonP/dwlee99 votes opportunistically on Zerosummer/Gratuitous. This takes Gratuitous's slot up to L-1 which would be very risky if Gratuitous was also Mafia. dwlee stays on the Gratuitous lynch wagon until he's the only one left (23)
then unvotes (26). This strongly suggests that Gratuitous is town.

27 - dwlee99 votes for Yuriko as soon as she votes for him (25)


2 & 13 - Dierfire votes for dwlee99 twice which could explain his death


34 - BBT is the second person to vote for Yuriko, but unvotes at 37 when there were four people on the wagon and it was at L-1. I quizzed him at the time and he said that he felt that a lynch was imminent (which it kind of was). This could be
construed as a scummy move because it was obvious that no one else was likely to be lynched at this point, but he was encouraging people to vote dwlee99 when it was only him and Yuriko. So this suggests town.


32 - shaddowwez is third vote on a lynch wagon on Mathilda which was equal with the lynch wagon on Yuriko (30). A replacement comes in and unvotes. An opportunistic move at this point would have been to jump on the Yuriko lynch wagon or to at least not unvote. This suggests that shaddowwez is town.

06 - Dwanyth is the only one voting on Mathilda, but then unvotes and joins a lynch wagon that is developing on Gratuitous (09). He is then immediately followed by dwlee99 (10). At the time this was the largest lynch wagon. This looks very suspicious but he then unvotes at (17) and votes necargoface/shaddowwez instead (22). If he is scum then why did he not continue with the lynch wagon? Suspicion was falling on necargo at the time so maybe he thought this was a better bet, especially as there were still quite a few days until the end of the phase.


Preliminary conclusions are that Gratuitous is town and probably shaddowwez too. Dwanyth is the most suspicious. Further reference to the pages in which these events occur can shed further light on the subject.


01 - BBT: Yuriko
02 - MasonP/dwlee99 : Dierfire
03 - BBT: [Yuriko]
04 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko
05 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT
06 - Honest/Mathilda: Draynth
07 - Honest/Mathilda: [Draynth]
08 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
09 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth
10 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, Draynth, MasonP/dwlee99
11 - BBT: Honest/Mathilda
12 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous
13 - MasonP/dwlee99 : [Dierfire]
14 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire
15 - BBT: Honest/Mathilda, Axwell/Lowercase
16 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT
17 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: Yuriko, BBT, [Draynth], MasonP/dwlee99
18 - Honest/Mathilda: Zerosummer/Gratuitous, Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
19 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [Yuriko], BBT, MasonP/dwlee99
20 - necargoface/shaddowwez: Yuriko
21 - necargoface/shaddowwez: [Yuriko]
22 - necargoface/shaddowwez: Draynth
23 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [BBT], MasonP/dwlee99
24 - Yuriko: BBT
25 - dwlee99 : Yuriko
26 - Zerosummer/Gratuitous: [MasonP/dwlee99]
27 - Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99
28 - BBT: Honest/Mathilda, [Axwell/Lowercase]
29 - Honest/Mathilda: [Zerosummer/Gratuitous], Dierfire, BBT, necargoface/shaddowwez
30 - Yuriko: BBT, dwlee99, Gratuitous
31 - BBT: [Honest/Mathilda]
32 - Honest/Mathilda: Dierfire, BBT, [necargoface/shaddowwez]
33 - Gratuitous: BBT, Lowercase
34 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT
35 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda
36 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda, shaddowwez
37 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowwez
38 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT
39 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowwez, BBT, Lowercase

[Mathilda]

Just thought I'd add, vote count analysis is just one bit of evidence that needs to be taken into consideration along with everything else. It can only tell part of the story.

[Mathilda]

in 410 it feels like your hitting around. It's a lot of information, not much analysis.
All posts before then were pure info. I'm ok if you post info and analysis separately, but now it looks like you're only doing the second part because I'm poking you.

Yeah whatever.

[Mathilda]

@Mathilda

- What do you think of the possibility that lee was newbscum, and thought an early bus would be good for credibility if the lynch actually went through?

I think dwlee99 was newbscum for sure. I would think that newbscum would be more likely to stand up for their buddies though rather than lynch them. But saying that, making a big point of distancing yourself is also a classic mistake. Normally this happens when suspicion falls on either of the scum and up to that point they have been defending the other scum. It's possible that being early in the game dwlee wasn't really aware of how majority voting works and what L-1 was so just jumped on any lynch wagon to blend in.

[Mathilda]

I think dwlee99 was newbscum for sure.

Now I'm off the tablet I'll back up this statement. Either he wasn't paying attention to the game or wasn't sure of the game mechanics and the nuances of the game. This gives us clues as to how we can expect him to have interacted with his fellow scum. I don't think there would have been any sophisticated strategy being employed in terms of WIFOMing or much thought given to whether he was implicating his colleague or not.

I just realized the thread existed. Completely forgot I was playing, sorry.

Btw, I didn't vote zerosummer, so idk why it's there on the vote count..

[Mathilda]

Or for that matter, if he completely forgot that he was playing this game, maybe he completely forgot who his scum buddy was!

[Mathilda]

Initial read list:

Yuriko made a good case for voting dwlee99 page 6 and kept with the lynch wagon until it was successful: Town

Gratuitous was put to L-1 by dwlee99 early on in the game but we're not even sure dwlee99 could remember who his partner was. Needs further investigation.

Lowercase has been more active but has not voted much. Last vote on dwlee99 could be bussing but could also work to exonerate him. Needs further investigation.

BBT an early voter on dwlee99 and encouraged others to join. Unvoting and revoting was acceptable considering there was time left to explore other possibilities. Lean town.

Shaddowez replaced Necargoface who was caught out contradicting himself. Shaddowez put dwlee99 at L-1 before BBT unvoted. Lean town.

Dwanyth had good reason to vote necargoface page 4.

Main suspects Gratuitous/Zerosummer and Lowercase/Axwell.

<Some time later>

I've just been through the entire thread writing down a summary of each of Grat/ZS's posts and Lowercase/Axwell's.

Lowercase is definitely not scum and he has it in early on for dwlee99. He is also deeply suspicious of Gratuitous / ZS and makes some good points.

Zerosummer was definitely playing quite scummy, Gratuitous doesn't but isn't exactly scum hunting either. Does cast suspicion on dwlee but also lumps him in with Yuriko as the other most likely candidate. He looks like he is trying to keep his head down and avoid attention.

VOTE: Gratuitous

I'll now catch up with the thread as I notice that there are more posts.

[Mathilda]

At this point, I'm pretty sure the final scum is in Draynth/LC.

I'm only willing to vote between these two Today and for now;

VOTE: Draynth

This feels good.

I would consider voting Draynth instead of Gratuitous but would need to discuss it more. I wouldn't want to vote LC though.

LC proposes lynching dwlee #141, casts more suspicion on dwlee #181, describes dwlee as ridiculously scummy #212, argues with dwlee #215, asks people how they are not sceptical of dwlee #221, declares intent to hammer dwlee #265, demands claim from dwlee #307, wants a hammer vote #315 and then proceeds to be worried about not lynching dwlee thereafter.

[Mathilda]

Hmm you have a point BBT. Gratuitous did agree dwlee was scum and did have to spend a lot of energy defending himself against Lowercase. And Draynth could have stirred up dirt on necargoface / shaddowez when he left the Zerosummer/Gratuitous lynch wagon after being joined by dwlee.

I'll keep my vote as it is for now but it's either Draynth or Gratuitous as far I'm concerned. I can't really decide which. I can comprehend the possibility that Zerosummer wasn't actually playing scummy and truly did not see the point of RV's and found the thread too serious. Any fluff does get pounced on here. But then when he does make a vote which isn't an RV, his reason doesn't make any sense.

#31 Makes vote against Honest/Mathilda for distancing by voting BBT but not clear as to who Honest was distancing himself from.

[Mathilda]

What do you think I have a point about Mathilda?

I originally thought that you had made a good point about Lowercase not voting dwlee until the lynch looked likely to succeed but I now assume that this is because he preferred to lynch Gratuitous.

34 - Gratuitous: BBT, Lowercase
35 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT
36 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda
37 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda, shaddowez
38 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowez
39 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowez, BBT
40 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowez, BBT, Lowercase

Just for reference, it was MasonP, not dwlee that cast the L-1 vote on ZeroSummer on page 1. While it is the same slot, it's probably a bad idea to speculate dwlee's play on a vote that he didn't cast.

Of course. I don't know why I forgot that dwlee replaced MasonP. This weighs more to you being town than Draynth. Sorry, Draynth, just a process of elimination at this point.

UNVOTE: Gratuitous
VOTE: Draynth

[Mathilda]

My problem with lynching shaddowrez is when he replaced necargoface in #271. The very next post 1 hour and 2 minutes later he unvotes and votes dwlee99 #272 putting dwlee99 at L-1.

Not sure yet whether dwlee was obviously going to be lynched at this point and shaddowrez was bussing him, it was quite late in the day phase. Unfortunately I've spotted another error with my vote count list so will have to sort that out before saying.

[Mathilda]

OK I'm going to have to re-evaluate shaddowez / necargoface now. My vote count list was not removing BBT from previous votes because he normally just changes his vote without voting first. This could well be shaddowez bussing dwlee99 knowing that his scum buddy was about to be lynched because after reading the entire thread the new player sees that dwlee99 is the most obviously scummy.

34 - Honest/Mathilda: Dierfire, [necargoface/shaddowez]
35 - Gratuitous: Lowercase
36 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT
37 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda
38 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, BBT, Mathilda, shaddowez
39 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, [BBT], Mathilda, shaddowez
40 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowez, BBT
41 - dwlee99 : Yuriko, Mathilda, shaddowez, BBT, Lowercase

The previous vote from this show necargoface joining the lynch wagon on my slot when Zerosummer/Gratuitous and Dierfier had already voted. So this could be seen as opportunistic. I'm going to have to go through shaddowez's posts carefully like I have with most of the other players.

[Mathilda]

Just been through the posts of Shaddowez/necargoface.

This is an interesting slot. Necargoface was inconsistent and talked a lot of what was and was not a random vote. He would describe his vote as not really an RV and definitely not an RV in the same post #58, but then says he likes RVs and that he made one #68. Almost all his posts are about RVs, which could be seen as a way of discussing the game but not actually helping. #125 he wants to stop the conversation but then #137 brings the subject of RVs up again himself with regard to Honest's vote. An alternative explanation is that because he was being inconsistent at the beginning of the game when there was not much information to go on, that people were seizing upon it and he felt that he had to keep defending himself.

He also kept bringing up the subject of going after people who randomly hammer voted even though no one else mentioned it (#53, #58, #67, #78, #106). This could be that he wants to be seen as pro-town or it could be that he's only played 4 games in 5 years. But then why have a strong preference for lynch wagons as stated in his introductory post? He also describes himself as lazy. His weird game play could be explained though as him vaguely remembering previous strategies but not really thinking it through.

Things improve when shaddowrez replaces necargoface #271 and he immediately votes dwlee putting him at L-1. He gives a townread on BBT and Dier (who was then assassinated that night). He has slight scum read on LC which then turns into a full blown scum read #273 after listing the reasons.

#350 is interesting in that he starts to question himself with regards to dwlee as he considers whether he is newb town. This seems more like a town move because if he was scum himself he would know that dwlee was also scum and that it was safer to not question the buddy that he had just bussed. On the other hand, maybe he was wanting to be accepted on the dwlee lynch wagon and then slowly steer it off course and onto LC?

He votes for Gratuitous #415 and starts questioning whether dwlee is newbscum instead of newbtown #416. He also considers whether putting your scum buddy at L-1 early in the game to give yourself credence works.

Voting for BBT though is ballsy if he is scum #458 because it would be easier to stick with an easier target such as Gratuitous which he has already voted for. This looks more like a town move. Overall I am leaning town on shaddowrez at the moment.

[Mathilda]

Four votes required to lynch and Draynth now has them. I'm posting the vote counts now for future reference just in case. Please say if you spot a mistake.


Page 17
Yuriko votes Mathilda
Shaddowez votes Gratuitous
BBT votes Draynth

Page 18
Yuriko unvotes Mathilda
Mathilda votes Gratuitous
Gratuitous votes Draynth
Mathilda unvotes Gratutious and votes Draynth


Page 19
Draynth votes Shaddowez
Shaddowez votes BBT
Draynth unvotes Shaddowez
Shaddowez unvotes BBT
Lowercase votes Gratuitous
Yuriko votes Draynth


01 - Mathilda: Yuriko
02 - Gratuitous: Shaddowez
03 - Draynth: BBT
04 - Mathilda: [Yuriko]
05 - Gratuitous: Shaddowez, Mathilda
06 - Draynth: BBT, Gratuitous,
07 - Gratuitous: Shaddowez, [Mathilda]
08 - Draynth: BBT, Gratuitous, Mathilda
09 - shaddowez: Draynth
10 - BBT: shaddowez
11 - shaddowez: [Draynth]
12 - BBT: [shaddowez]
13 - Gratuitous: Lowercase
14 - Draynth: BBT, Gratuitous, Mathilda, Yuriko