NY 191: Denmark Mafia - Endgame

[Drixx]

Hello folks I've played with and folks I haven't. I've got a bit of an unusual few days ahead of me with end of semester grading and paperwork and such. I told Fro99er I'd be available to replace in and I'll do my best to carve out time and be caught up ASAP. I tend not to be a post as I go catch up sort, so if you have any questions feel free to drop them for me and I'll get to them too.

[Drixx]

I haven't caught up. I just wanted to apologize to the game. I do not like folks being inactive and try to bring full energy and activity to each game.

I don't want to get into any specifics and break the rules, but I think I'm safe in saying that I have been busy elsewhere on site. I will do my very best to put the time in to get active in this game. If I don't have the time I will replace out, but that's not something I like to do. I will do my very best to be caught up and engaged in the next 24 hours.

Again: I deeply apologize. It's not cool for one person to disrespect others who are active and making the game fun. That's not my style and I will rectify it ASAP.

[Drixx]

Okay. All my stuff is done for the semester (hooray!). I'm sinking my teeth in now.

Titus, I'll do my best to meet your request from several pages ago.

I don't generally make posts as I go when catching up. I'll likely multi-quote and comment on whatever catches my eye. See you all in a bit.

[Drixx]

That faux Greek really was unpleasant. Was that done knowing that I actually teach Greek? (Random question, I'm on page 34 atm, but I checked what had been posted so far this evening).

[Drixx]

Μπορω πολυ εκυκολα να αποδηωξω οτι ξερω ελληνικα. Οπως ειπα και πριν, Δεν ηταν μουφα απλα ξεχασα να αλλαξω το input του keyboard και παταγα τα αγγλικα γραμματα. Εφοσον το ψ βρισκετε στην ιδια θεση με το c κτλ. κτλ εγραψα οτι νανε .

I can prove easily that I know greek. Like I was saying befoew, It wasn't fake I just forgot to change my keyboard input so I was pressing english letter. Since ψ is in the same space is c etc etc I wrote whatever.

Good enough ? :p

Didn't realize you were Greek. That's awesome. I'm slowly learning Modern Greek (reading and speaking) from a Greek friend who lives in Sweden. I teach Koine Greek (also sometimes called Patrician Greek). My students are generally history or religion majors. Occasionally I get some English majors who go for a less common language (Spanish and German are generally what people choose for their language requirement). I tend to get the students who have to take 4 semesters to graduate.

@Titus - I'm nearly caught up. I've got a multi-quote post in process in notepad. Lots of thoughts. I'll do a reads list too, but only because you ask. I don't generally do them as I prefer to sort people one or two at a time.

[Drixx]

Given the two wagons, I firstly have much more positive reads on the people on Aj, and I also have some questions about AJ, so

VOTE: Aj The Epic

I need to edit my notepad notes from catching up into something coherent. My brain is always a bit frazzled at end of semester time so bear with me.

[Drixx]

Given the two wagons, I firstly have much more positive reads on the people on Aj,

and I also have some questions about AJ, so

VOTE: Aj The Epic

I need to edit my notepad notes from catching up into something coherent. My brain is always a bit frazzled at end of semester time so bear with me.

I call bullshit.

You made that quite easy for me.

A townie isn't afraid to answer questions. Scum attack.

That was like ... remarkably easy. Thanks.

[Drixx]

Given the two wagons, I firstly have much more positive reads on the people on Aj, and I also have some questions about AJ, so

VOTE: Aj The Epic

I need to edit my notepad notes from catching up into something coherent. My brain is always a bit frazzled at end of semester time so bear with me.

I expect this within 24 hours.

You would put me on a clock? I'm afraid you may be disappointed. I'm about to head off to sleep. If I'm remarkably lucky I'll wake up this evening to eat something before catching up on sleep. It seems unlikely I'll sleep less than like 14 hours. I've got a serious sleep deficit.

I'm pretty sure nobody is going to kill me tonight to keep me from posting my thoughts if someone hammers while I'm asleep.

Plus I dislike ultimatums, even when they're only implicit and come from friends. Bit of a personal quirk.


@AJ - Call me whatever you like. I baited you with a clear idea of what to expect from a town mindset and what to expect from a scum mindset. You responded with what I expected from a scum mindset. Feel free to show me evidence that your normal response to general comments is to attack instead of ask questions, and I'll certainly be happy to re-evaluate.

[Drixx]

Are you saying you...
REACTION TESTED???

DUN DUN DUN

I do it a lot on day one. I'm rubbish at early game. Like maybe the worst experienced player on the site at day one. Seriously. I'm off to catch some sleep now. If when my wife gets home and I get up and have dinner and such I'm not tired, I'll try and post my thoughts from catching up, just on the outside chance that I might get killed tonight. I tempted fate by saying aloud that killing me would make no sense.

[Drixx]

I am scumreading Dave because he is treating me like I know scum have treated me in the past.

If dave or anyone on the scum team was TRULY scared of you, they'd kill you rather than trying to lynch you.

I take it you've just given up all pretense of being town at this point?

[Drixx]

Titus ... what did you think of the AJ post I quoted when I asked him if he was just giving up all pretense of being town?

What did you think of his reaction?

Also two things:

1.) I'm having some RL stuff. Hopefully nothing super major, but my schedule has been (obviously) quite backwards from any sane person living where I do. I've been up since 1:30am Eastern (21 hours and counting).
2.) I have a very specific reason to ask you to just trust me and let me open the day tomorrow with my observations. I have good reason to want to do this. Saying more now would be unwise.

[Drixx]

This counter-wagon is giving me the heebie jeebies.

[Drixx]

Your face gives me the heebie jeebies.

But ... but ... you've never seen my face.

[Drixx]

Four hours left. I can dig MM given that he's got a vanity vote parked. Getting strong scum vibes from Espeonage, but it's "gut" and I don't trust "gut" so I'll try and figure out why.

Unvote

VOTE: MarioManiac4

[Drixx]

Drixx: your catchup/reads, if you please.

Catchup and thoughts coming. I can't talk about ongoing games in specific, but I will just say that you know how to look at my posts. My internet died suddenly on me and took an absurdly long time to get fixed, and I left the house before 1pm today and

just

got home after doctor's appt., grocery shopping and Christmas shopping. I'll let everyone in on a little peak at the last bit:




On another note ... I'm really irritated that the "reformulation" of Vicodin to Norco (reduced the acetaminophen from 500mg to 325mg, left the Hydrocodone the same) has inflated the price of

Generic

brands by 300%. I'm paying more than $1 per pill now, and that's with good insurance. /rant off (Sticker shock at my prescription bill was a thing).

Back to business at hand:

I am doing a quick catch up with my games now, making something to eat, and will be back tonight. I have very specific thoughts about Elyse and Dave that I'd like to share since they are relevant to the current wagons, and a more broad catch up post I'll make either tonight or in the morning based upon my notes from reading when I replaced in. I wanted to re-read during the night some to confirm things I was thinking at the end of yesTerday, but ISP going down = bleh.

[Drixx]

A couple thoughts for the moment:

1.) Nero Cain replaced into the game. Then predicted a fight with Titus. Then

instigated

a fight with Titus. Then called himself prophetic (well duh ... if you pick a fight you can predict you are going to do so). Then tries to pretend it's Titus' fault. I get super bad vibes off that entrance and there's a lot of implicit lying going on from Nero in that exchange.

2.) Elyse is scum. Titus was pushing for a particular lynch yesterday (AJ), and Elyse responded to that by saying she was going to push to 1v1 Titus today. That seems to me to imply that Elyse had some reason to believe people would buy into that 1v1 idea. The only thing that makes sense is that AJ would have flipped town, and Elyse knew that. But ... AJ didn't get lynched; instead we swerved onto a different target last minute and they flipped town. Now Elyse is keeping up the 1v1 thing because she's stuck with it, but she has no reason to do it except that to go back on it would make her look even worse.

I'm not sure why we don't already have consensus to lynch Elyse at this point.

[Drixx]

Espe is starting to look less and less like he did the last time I played with him. Upgraded from bad vibes to null.

[Drixx]

I recall saying that I wanted to review some things, and you well know that my internet was out and that I'm now dealing with a pressure wound, limiting my time, Titus. You also know that I'm not going to make promises and not follow through; however, you also should know that I don't react well to demands.

[Drixx]

Can we maybe not attack other players by saying things like "I love how you are

so full of yourself

and by love I mean

I'd be willing to smother you with a pillow

. Even if you respond and claim it was "just a joke" there is no indication in your post that it's a joke. No little ;p or other smilie/emoji. Your post meets the definition of threatening someone's life, at least according to the law where I live.

If you keep up the personal attacks, I will push to lynch you out of the game for it. Your entrance was scummy as all get out, and if I wasn't convinced Elyse was trying to set up a mislynch yesterday and therefore my top scumspect, I would be on you right now. Predicting that you and Titus would fight, instigating that fight, and then trying to blame Titus for it is childish, petty and scummy, all rolled into one unpleasant mess.

[Drixx]

More personal attacks. Somebody doesn't like to be reminded that there are rules around here.

[Drixx]

Look at the two scummiest players being super optimistic. I would gladly go to the gallows, if it will wake up the fools who don't see that one or both of {AJ, Elyse} are scum.

Elyse is more probable due to making some bullshit statement that she was going to 1v1 Titus today (where is the case and reasoning and attempt to actually do that btw? Did you decide to drop it since I pointed out how scummy you look?) at a time when it appeared AJ was going to be the one lynched. The reasoning for that which requires the least assumptions is that Elyse is scum and therefore knew that AJ would flip town, allowing Elyse to have a good chance for people to buy into her 1v1 bullshit. If she really wanted to 1v1 today, she would have actual reasons and be pushing it. Instead she's jumping onto me opportunistically. So much for conviction. Almost certainly Elyse is scum.

Then we have AJ. AJ looks scummy; however, Elyse appeared to be setting up to push the "lynch Titus" agenda based upon what was going on yesTerday. At the time she did so, it appeared that AJ would be the lynch. This would seem to imply that AJ may be town and that Elyse may have known that.

Or they could both be scum pulling a "scum would never do that!" gambit.

In any case, it's absurd to vote for me without any reasons, so feel free to go ISO diving so you can cherry pick and misrep me. You won't find anything that's actually a scum tell, because I'm not scum.


@Titus - We should town bloc as soon as possible. The last second detour yesterday should have have happened, and the blatant opportunism and lack of reasoning on display so far toDay shows a desperate need for town to take control of this game. There are definitely scum among the active folks vying to be the "town leader", if you catch the metaphor.

[Drixx]

Cause it is off putting and I want to see his response with more than 2 people and his main scumreading voting him.

By all means run me up if you like to see how I react to pressure. I'll keep doing my thing and reading the thread and ISO diving to try and figure things out. That's how I do my thing. I see no point in wasting time and giving scum a smokescreen by defending myself non-stop, especially when there's nothing to defend against.

So while you're doing that, I'll be using my "up and around" time to actually try and figure out as much as I can. If you lynch me, you lynch me. I will play to my wincon and get as many of my thoughts into the game as possible so once you see me flip town you can trust my motives and have my thoughts for whatever they will be worth. Too many unknowns in the early game to be super sure of much.

All I'm actually sure of right now is that I just saw some super opportunistic wagon jumping (especially amused by the quoting Titus, use of profanity and vote against me ... talk about scum narrative fail). The most blatant was Elyse. She claimed to be so sure Titus was scum that she was pushing the agenda of 1v1 today ... but where's the reasoning or commitment to that today? Her every action lends more weight to the theory that she expected to be able to blame Titus for pushing a mislynch and now doesn't have the narrative she thought she would. Note that as soon as she saw an opening to drop it and jump somewhere else she did.

She might as well post a neon sign saying "Elyse is scum. Lynch her ASAP."

[Drixx]

Or they could both be scum pulling a "scum would never do that!" gambit.

God I love to counter the logical arguments with "Could be wifom though".

Anything that deals with trying to outguess what scum will or will not do is by definition WiFoM. There is nothing that scum won't do if the situation is right. I have participated in a live game of mafia where scum won by killing one of their own during the night (Live games don't show night kill flips), which fooled everyone who had been getting close to convincing others of who was scum. If there is a situation where scum can benefit by killing one of their own team ... there's

literally

nothing that scum won't do, given the right circumstances.

[Drixx]

How come you never voted Elyse?

Because I have a terrible habit of not moving my vote around a lot. It's a null tell. Please refer to my hydra "Reasonably Rational" in the Steven Universe game. My hydra partner and I drove the game as we drew IC and despite making the case for quite a few lynches, we were actually not voting in a rather large number of the lynches. It's an odd quirk that particular player and myself share. Neither of understands the point of the site meta where people spread their vote around like Venereal Disease. Our best guess is that it's an attempt to stifle any kind of vote analysis.

So far I think only Titus and I have expressed that we think Elyse is likely to be scum. Without consensus, I see no reason to vote. It's a vanity vote if nobody is actually going to put any pressure on Elyse. So far everyone but me is giving her a free pass on the whole 1v1 thing, which I find confusing.

In any case, I'm off to bed now.

[Drixx]

So basically you are concluding that the only reason the game started when it did is because a scum confirmed and that's all that was holding things up? And from this you posit multi-ball even though we don't actually have evidence of that? That might be the weakest rationalization to lynch someone who hasn't said anything overtly scummy in ... ever?

But here's the dealio. I'll 1v1 Elyse. I'm even willing to go first.

VOTE: Elyse

[Drixx]

You know people always ditch the wait until you have a reason to get back in to the game strat. But it seems to always work better than reading.

The irony of this post.

[Drixx]

"I see that drixx scum slipped but let's vote someone else"

How about no, elyse?

VOTE: Drixx

This is super bizarre. I offered to 1v1 Elyse because she has a scum narrative in shambles. I'm even happy to go first so you know you can trust the motives of whatever infodump I make if I do indeed get lynched today. I would caution you all to be careful of pilling on too quickly ... wouldn't want to give the scum a chance to silence me.

I can provide examples of my ability to find flaws in scum narratives and nail them, and since it's possible the game is multi-ball (I don't see any concrete information to confirm it, but it's possible), I can't trust that my townread on Titus is legit. She doesn't appear to be doing her normal scum routine, but if this is multi-ball, I could be in error in town reading her.

I seriously don't mind going to the gallows first, so long as I get to speak my piece and that the townies who vote me go after Elyse tomorrow when they see me flip town. I will trade myself 1-for-1 for scum any time, any game.

[Drixx]

The part of that post which was odd, btw, is that Dwlee99 seems to think that Elyse is trying to protect me, and thus voted me. That seems like an odd position to take with really odd reasoning, since I'm literally saying "I'll trade myself for Elyse being lynched". In what world does Elyse want to defend me under these circumstances?

Dwlee99 just jumped way up near the top of the probable scum list with that vote with illogical and terrible reasons. He literally looks like scum who knows he needs to have a reason to vote, so he picked some bizarre way to justify it. #1963 is perhaps the scummiest post in the game now.

[Drixx]

The "setting up a mislynch" thing. I'll go off of it.

You mean me speculating that Elyse was trying to line up mislynches? That's hardly a scum slip; it's an observation of what was going on yesterday. Let's review:

1.) Titus was pushing for an AJ lynch. As the deadline approached it appeared that AJ would be the lynch.

2.) Elyse started pushing to 1v1 Titus when it seemed like AJ was going to get lynched. She gave no reasons why she wanted to 1v1 Titus. Occam's razor suggests that the most simple explanation for that is that Elyse expected AJ to be lynched and expected AJ to flip town.

3.) Despite the fact that she gave no reasons yesterday, Elyse gave a half hearted attempt to do the "1v1 with Titus" thing, but still gave no reasons. I called her out on it. The speculation on my part is that Elyse expected people to want to go along with her 1v1 today. Why would we want to do that with no reasons given? The sequence of events suggests that Elyse was planning on AJ being (mis)lynched to give her fuel to push for a 1v1 today.


That's how it went down. There's no scum slip in speculation. I haven't claimed to know anyone's alignment, and in fact you have ignored the part of my speculation where I pointed out it was possible that both Elyse and AJ are scum, or that only one is. It's even possible that AJ is scum but Elyse is not and just wants to 1v1 Titus without telling us why. The reasoning that requires the least assumptions is that Elyse was trying to set up mislynches. That's what her push to 1v1 Titus (without any reasoning) looks like. Her planned reason (the AJ lynch that seemed inevitable late yesTerday) was pulled out from under her, so she was left having to push it today, without any reasons to give us.

The speculation seems pretty spot on given that she took the first opportunity to jump off of Titus. I've got nothing to fear. I already said I'll gladly allow myself to be mislynched and info dump as long as that means the town will realize that Elyse has an ISO displaying a classic scum narrative where things have to change because of unexpected events, and will lynch her after I flip town. I will always trade 1for1. That's really good town utility in nearly every case, and certainly so in this one.


BTW: A scum slip is when scum reveal information they could not have as town, or say something in a way that makes it clear they are scum. Speculation is not the same as revealing certainty of knowledge. Speculation can't be a slip since by nature it's hypothetical. Townies please pay attention to the people who are taking advantage of horrible reasons to jump on me and let Elyse off the hook. I am content to die today so long as I can info dump, because I'll be vindicated by my flip and there's already enough scummy opportunistic jumps onto me to give town a lot of info just from that, setting aside that my thoughts and evaluation can be trusted to be town motivated once I flip.

So decide now if you think Elyse demanding to 1v1 Titus today without reasons makes any sense from a town mindset. Ask yourself if it makes sense if she knew yesTerday that what seemed like the consensus and inevitable lynch (AJ) would flip town. Ask yourself if you believe she's really gone after Titus in any meaningful way during today's day phase. Think ... because thinking is how you figure things out, and right now folks are just letting Elyse off the hook.

If it takes me being mislynched to make you all realize that I'm right ... then I'm cool with that. 1-for-1 ... let's do it.

[Drixx]

UNVOTE:

Titus, I'll sheep you on anyone but elyse.

What reason do you have to believe Elyse is town? I just literally offered to voluntarily put my head in the noose I'm so sure of it.

[Drixx]

Let's look at the actual sequence of posts and see who instigated whom:

also major argument with Titus in

3...


2...

1...

Second post after he replaced in. The first one was him asking for people to tell him the game state so he didn't have to read for himself.

First, Nero predicts a "major argument".

Is Titus

ever

right?

Whats the case on AJ?

Emphasis added by me. This is the first provocation by Nero. He went out of his way to intentionally poke Titus to get a reaction. Titus had not responded to his "major argument" post, so this is clearly first instigation/provocation.

@nero, my last three games I was spot on for my scum reads.

You might try listening to me for a change.

The try to wagon Titus box has even been checked to.

Titus points out that her reads have been really good, objectively speaking. I can vouch because I was in one of those games, and she had it figured out on day one.

there's that

lovely arrogance

from Titus

Emphasis mine again. Titus made a factual statement about being on a hot streak at doing well finding scum. There was no need to get personal and make the sarcastic "lovely arrogance" comment. This is just Nero trying to instigate {again} a fight with Titus, since he entered the game by predicting one and she didn't take the bait and give him what he wanted.

Nero, stating I was right recently and can prove it isn't arrogance when you ask if I am ever right.

Cogent and calm response by Titus, after being provoked twice. So far what we have objectively is Nero trying to provoke Titus into a fight.

Is there a reason you try to make everything about you?

You are the one who started it and kept instigating. Why are you trying to blame Titus? (To everyone else; I pose the same question to you; what is the town motive for picking a fight and then dishonestly trying to make the target of your instigation and provocation appear to be the one who started it).

I mean we've had this same conversation before about each of us not trusting our reads, and for me its still the same thing, why should I trust your reads if you won't trust mine?

No. Is there a reason you always have to be contrary to me?

I don't think I am. I replaced in and you tried to strong arm a AJ lynch. I said no and then you got all pissy and said I was being mean to you.

So why not try to sell me on the merits of the AJ case?

What reads did you give for Titus to trust? Why do you feel like someone you just tried to bait into a fight is obligated to spoon feed you things that were already said. Do you generally replace into game and demand that the rest of the game be your peons and do the work for you? Or was your entrance an attempt to kick up a bunch of dust and distraction? {rhetorical question}

If I thought Nero looked at evidence, I would engage him on that level.

really? I don't oppose you 'cause you are wrong 3/4th of the time but 'cause your "cases" are filled with more wholes than Swiss cheese. Why do you feel the need to take pot shots at me?

Nero again is back to the provocation. Despite Titus objectively being spot on and very top of her game in 3 of her last 4 games, Nero intentionally flips it around and says she was

wrong

, insults her ability to make a case, and then tries to frame the whole thing as her fault {again} with the question at the end. Nero came in with instigation and provocation and lies, but he wants us to believe the narrative that Titus is the immature one provoking and instigating things?

My reads have been right 3/4th of the time.

Re-stating the earlier claim (which one can look up quite easily).

says the person that just said I don't look at evidence.

Nero clearly doesn't look at evidence. He entered the thread without reading it, straightaway went to provoking and instigating a fight with Titus and then trying to blame her for it, and then intentionally misrepresented what Titus said to further provoke. He clearly never actually went to look. He seems only interested in provoking a fight, no matter what he has to say. What's the town motive for this?

You just proved it.

Nero: Titus sucks.
Titus: No my town games have been right 3/4 of the time.
Nero: Ignore you because your reads are wrong 3/4 of the time.

Me: desires a vig shot.

Pretty much this.

---

So ... who was it saying that Titus started it and Nero was pure as the driven snow?

[Drixx]

Unvote

I'm going to just sit and wait for Elyse to make the case against Titus.

[Drixx]

Drixx how much of your defense is about being friends with Titus and how much is it that you really think these things 'cause alot of the stuff you posted is really stretching.

Stop trying to manipulate things and massage things. I am attacking

you

because you predicted a fight, then instigated it, and then tried to weave a false narrative. Anyone can ISO you and Titus together and see the order of posts. It's super clear you were intentionally being an instigator and attempting to provoke a conflict. It's clear you intentionally misrepresented her posts.

Please explain the town mindset for that. If you dislike someone so much that the first thing you do when you replace into a game they are alive in is to provoke and instigate a conflict with them so you can make snide (and petty) comments about them ... maybe you should just not replace into games with that person?

[Drixx]

Why?

An Innocent Child doesn't push to 1v1 someone without reason. There must be a reason. Since we can trust Elyse's motives now that she's mod confirmed town, I'm waiting to hear what she has to say.

[Drixx]

An innocent child knows they win a 1v1 regardless of who the opponent is.

Can we move beyond the obvious. An Innocent Child can 1v1 someone and if that person flips town, the IC just triggers and gets mod confirmed town, and they won't get lynched.

That doesn't remove the necessity of actually having some reason to use the position that way. It would be one thing if there had ever been any reasoning given. Right now I'm frankly just irritated that our IC outed because they decided to push a 1v1 without any reasons and when pressured instead of giving reasons, decided to waste the IC reveal. You hang on to that until you have insights to share that will actually help town.

How does what Elyse did help us at all? I mean ... I suppose she'll draw a night kill so there's no conftown in the game, but I mean ... a VT who is good at subtle gambits could do the same. An IC should be worth more than just drawing a night kill.

[Drixx]

Titus is scum.

I feel it in my gut. She's going from mislynch to mislynch and it's exceedingly obvious.

Drixx is a possible buddy. Nero is town.

More coming later...

Gut is worthless. Its only value is that it brings to your conscious attention something that your unconscious mind has picked up. Unless you go find some actual

reason

, then stop with this nonsense. You blew your role on literally nothing.

As for being a possible buddy, you really need to go look at Steven Universe. My hydra partner and I suspected Titus from the very start of the game but pretended to trust her and shared useless information with her while we watched. Then we caught her slip (cue Titus showing up to claim it wasn't a slip in 3... 2... 1... {tongue in cheek reference to Nero's game entrance}) and used it to drive her team into the ground. Subtlety is a thing. Please don't make the mistake of assuming I'm so bad at this game as to openly associate myself with scum partners (on the occasions when I draw scum). I talk to Titus because I know her, and I need her to talk to me and interact so I can read her.

A lot of people on site take a shit on Titus all the time, but I've found her play to feature quite a lot of subtlety and I enjoy the challenge of figuring her out. Every game is different.

For example: Scum Titus would almost surely have pounced on me as a mislynch opportunity by now, unless she has become

extremely

wary of me since the last time she was scum in a game with me (Steven Universe). I don't think that's the case, so I have to assume that my approach to getting a read on her is giving me a legitimate reaction. What I see is Titus trying to lead the town but without the full self assurance she usually displays as scum. This could either mean that she's trying to adjust her scum meta out of the rut it has been in, or it could mean she's trying to get better at playing more proactively as town.


Oh, and by the way, you totally blew any cred you being Innocent Child gives you with this crap. Nero entered the game, picked and instigated a fight repeatedly, then tried to get everyone to believe that he was pure as the driven snow and did nothing wrong and Titus just attacked him without any reason. There's no reason whatsoever to view that as town behavior or to read him as town, yet you are declaring he's town as if you were a cop or an informed townie or something.

But ... you're not. You're an IC who has showed questionable judgment, at best. It will be a benefit for the town when the scum night kill you, I think.

[Drixx]

Fuck off Drixx. Stop acting like you're hot shit. When I get to a computer I'm going to explain my reads. Your condescending attitude isn't necessary. You're just a fucking asshole. I'm sorry your planned mislynch of the day fell through.

Elyse, you should talk with me on SKYPE sometime. I'm a warm and engaging person in voice and in person. In text, it's literally impossible to read my intent, and I am the arbiter of intent, being the author of my posts. I can say unequivocally that I do not believe I'm superior to anyone or everyone in the game. Like all human beings, and all mafia players, I have weak spots and strong spots.

I think the most likely thing you are picking up on from my posts is that I speak like an academic... because I am one. I just spent the last 9 years starting over after leaving my original career and starting at the bottom as an Undergraduate, networking and volunteering my time as TA for multiple professors to have a strong network of recommendations. I've been teaching as a PhD. candidate (and for the last few months, as a PhD.) for the last few years. I do so much reading, research, writing, lecturing, preparing exams and grading them ... I am simply through and through an academic after years in that bubble.

Basically, I spend my days working with other professors in my departments, working on research with another professor for a joint publication project, researching for my own projects, looking things up for lectures, getting my grad students to debate various points of law and forcing them to think and use what they're learning ... and even doing some arguing of my own with peers about unsettled issues in the areas where I teach and research.

I'm pretty sure that my written patterns very closely mirror my speaking patterns, which means you will see complex sentences, infrequently used words, and absolutely no inhibition about debating with people. If you take away my body language and the audible cues you get from my voice ... you end up thinking I'm a "...condescending ... fucking asshole." to quote you. I'm really not. You are welcome to get to know me better voice to voice if you like. Or not. Totally up to you.

@drixx, join me on Dave? You should see how his opening here matches Sudoken.

I has angry cakes you can use to avoid giving Nero the drama fight he's looking for.

Sure. You are like 90% town imo. I have some doubts, but I can't imagine you reacting to what I did end of yesterday and start of today the way you have if you were scum.

VOTE: Dave

Oh and Drixx, I am not subtle. At all.

Bullshit. You want people to think you're easy to read and not subtle at all. I know better.

[Drixx]

Do not misrepresent me, Elyse. You have no reason to do so. My problem with Nero is that he predicted a fight, repeatedly instigated and provoked Titus, and then tried to spin the narrative that she went after him and started it. My problem is with the dishonesty on his part. There is absolutely zero town motive I can think of for provoking/instigating a fight and then trying to convince everyone that your target actually started things.

[Drixx]

Is Nero calling Titus scum for starting a fight?

How is that relevant? He wanted people to believe that Titus started a fight with him as soon as he replaced in. What's the town motive for that?

[Drixx]

Gut is worthless. Its only value is that it brings to your conscious attention something that your unconscious mind has picked up. Unless you go find some actual reason, then stop with this nonsense. You blew your role on literally nothing.

Except for that sometimes you predominantly get feelings and later search for reasons that gave you feeling even when that wasn't true.

Happens in human psychology all the time. The truth is we don't always know why we think the way we do and you saying we can find out such I think is bullocks.

You can say 'Gut' is worthless, but how much is it really? Just because you can't understand it? That seems like you not doing enough on your own to understand the player IMO.

In summary: Gut is valuable.

I hate the people who like to pretend to be just rational/logic individuals.
Its really boring.

http://www.lesswrong.com <--- When you finish the sequences and you can describe to me how to apply Bayes' theorem to mafia games, then feel free to talk about me

pretending

to be rational. Rational is really just a word that means thinking in the way one believes is correct, so it's not even really a useful word, but once you get done at the site, you'll know that and a lot more.

As for gut, I didn't say it was worthless period. I said that by itself it's worthless and meaningless. "Gut" can be all sorts of things. All it takes is someone to say something a certain way that your brain associates with scum or town from some prior game, and your "gut" makes an assumption that you cannot assume is sound. That's why I said anyone who talks about "gut" needs to figure out what their "gut" is telling them. I get "gut feelings" all the time ... but unless I can support them with some evidence or apply logical reasoning ... there's no way I'm going to lynch someone because I have a "gut feeling" but cannot discern what that feeling means.

Preferably, proper game theory in mafia would use reasoning that examines evidence and lets it guide the player to conclusions, instead of hypothesizing that X player is Y alignment; however, sometimes that doesn't work; generally due to a lack of evidence. In that case, I generally try and do a sort to see where it's most valuable to spend my time, and I'll read a person in context assuming they are scum, and look for any inconsistencies in narrative. Then I'll assume they're town and see if there are town reasons for everything they say and do.

You may have a different approach.

All I'm saying is that if your "gut" starts telling you things, it's probably time to go eat something. The more games you play, the more times you are going to bump into things that are similar to prior events. The problem is that prior events from prior games with prior player groups and prior setups cannot logically inform you about anything in the current game. So far as I am aware, "gut feeling" when tested in double blind studies is statistically indistinguishable from random chance. So yeah ... when your "gut feeling" gets going ... go look for why.

And the next time you want to take a pot shot at me and launch a theory discussion, perhaps you could do it in the mafia discussion forum? Then people can weigh in and give anecdotes as if they constituted evidence, and I can laugh a lot and not feel bad.


Can we get back to finding and lynching scum now please?


Love, with last minute shopping treats,
Drixx

[Drixx]

I am doing plenty of scumhunting thank you. I like how you couldn't back up one statement so you moved on to try something else.

I had a busy last couple weeks. Can you quote yourself scum hunting in thread please?

[Drixx]

@Nero: Not on my radar at the moment. I'll get to her when it's important.

@AboveTitus: That is based on the completely false premise that there is only one scumteam which I have already proven as false. Scum can 100% scumhunt this game, because they need to. #multiball

You have speculated that the game began when it did because the first scum confirmed. What makes you so certain of that? It could simply be that scum confirmed earlier and the necessary # of people confirmed, starting the game. For all we know, it could have started when it did because that's when our mod checked in.

What you have is a theory without any reason to believe (or disbelieve) it; however, you are acting as if you know for certain that this is multiball. There aren't a lot of ways to be as certain as you are acting, and nearly all of them involve positing you as part of a small scum team.

[Drixx]

I am doing plenty of scumhunting thank you. I like how you couldn't back up one statement so you moved on to try something else.

I had a busy last couple weeks. Can you quote yourself scum hunting in thread please?

Ok what the actual fuck is this?

Hey Nero, can you please not answer, I want to see what happens.

Nero has already lied since he replaced in. He claims to be scum hunting ... I don't recall seeing him actually push anyone or even try to get someone talking. On the off chance I missed something, I asked him to quote himself so I could go read in context what he thinks is scumhunting.

Also ... you do realize it's rude to interrupt one player directly questioning another right?

[Drixx]

This game is in pre-game. Setup will be randomized and role PMs going out shortly

Role PMs have been sent. The game will begin when 13/18 confirm by replying to their role PM with their role name and alignment or at 09:00AM USA East Coast time on Monday, November 30th. Whichever comes first.

At least 13 players have confirmed. Day 1 will begin now.

Where does it say anything about the alignment of the people confirming? Fro99er said the game would start when 13 of 18 had confirmed, or 9am on Nov. 30th ... whichever happened first.

So again, having gone and re-read the opening posts to make sure I didn't miss something ... where does it say what you claim?

[Drixx]

All Fro99er said is "at least 13 people have confirmed" ... for all any of us know, maybe all 18 had confirmed.

So I am asking again. Please walk me through the series of assumptions you are making, and the reasons that support them. I don't see any way I can know how many scum are in the game.

I think I understand your premises:


Minor Premise: A game will not start without at least one scum confirming.
Major Premise: The number of players needed to confirm to start a game will be N+1 where N is the number of non scum slots.
Observation: The required number of players who needed to confirm was 13.

Conclusion: There are 12 town players and the remaining players are some mix of scum and neutral roles.


Assuming that is your logic ... there problem is with the first premise and if the first premise fails, so does the second ... which necessarily makes it impossible to say that the conclusion is sound. If the premises are sound, the conclusion necessarily follows from them (and the observation). The problem is that you say yourself that it's an "unwritten mod rule". You are making a very large assumption based upon an assumption you cannot rely upon.

[Drixx]

Nero you should really look into me a bit. I think we only played together once before and one or the other of us wasn't around for long in the game. I think the best place to look would be Steven Universe and see that in my hydra with Cerberus, we basically ran the game and we didn't vote on like 4 or 5 lynches that we pushed. It's a super odd quirk he and I share that we don't move our vote around a lot. I have recently thought of a very good reason to change that, and so my voting and unvoting will improve as I make it a habit. You did note I unovted Elyse as soon as the IC post came right?

As for you scumhunting by taking something I was saying as a hypothetical and trying to claim I had scum slipped ... I would consider that scum hunting if you had followed it up instead of letting it drop when I addressed it. You can't have it both ways: either you think I scum slipped (and should be pushing a wagon on me), or you realized that cherry picking a phrase out of a large post and trying to make it look like a scum slip will just make you look even scummier, which is what lines up with your behavior since you dropped it.

Your whole approach since you replaced in has been to throw shit on random people and see if other people will buy your bullshit and get a wagon going. Classic shit stirring scum behavior. I'd vote you but then you'd cry OMGUS.

[Drixx]

Going to fucking do this proof again.

The game will begin when 13/18 confirm.[/strike]

Ok here is the important bit.

It is a widely accepted rule of modding that it is in poor taste for a game to be allowed to start without any scum in play. This is due to various concerns mostly regarding that scumhunting gets fucked with and quick lynches are assured of not hitting scum. Therefore when deciding at what point to allow the start of the game, mods count scum and pick the amount of scum +1. This ensures there is at least one scum confirmed at game start.

So combining this with the above quote means we have 6 scum. Having a 6 person scumteam in an 18 player game seems incredibly off balance-wise. How is this balanced out? By having them split across a second scum team. Two three man teams is much more balanced. A tad town sided I think but that is easily offset by some scum power. A much more believable setup.

It's not a proof of anything. "Widely accepted" and yet people who mod games (including myself having modded many games offsite) don't have any idea what you're talking about. It's not listed

anywhere

in the Wiki articles about good modding. And you are flat out contradicted by the fact that the newbie games are strictly regulated and start with 7/9 confirmed (I've never seen it be 8/9 and I regularly IC in the newbie queue), and newbie games have two scum. Your entire "proof" fails because the premises upon which it rests fail.

Ok so what does this mean for the game?

It means that the usual method of using lack of conviction in reads and other such tells that revolve around the fact that scum have to fake scumhunting are all out the window. Scum need to scumhunt too. It also changes other things. For example Shiro's 2335 just above is negated by asking how two people are meant to influence a wagon off someone in an 18 players game to the point where it stagnates a potential lynch target. What that tells me is that the friction is town sided, and so there is nothing usable from the observation. Pig might be scum, but it's not because of the difficulty the wagon is having getting off the ground.

Why do you want to force people to change how they scumhunt? Your entire agenda appears to be to force people to accept your weak setup spec and move out of their practiced ways of scum hunting. This is troubling, for obvious reasons.

There's a mix of 7 and 8, and there also shouldn't be.

There are nearly 1700 newbie games archived. Shall we pick 50 random numbers between 1,000 and 1670 and look at those games and see how often it is 7 and how often it is 8? Before even making the effort, I predict that there is a strong chance that we will find no newbie games in the random selection that require 8 confirmations to start, let alone anything even close to being considered common.

I also want to note that you have, as of post #2339, swapped from talking in absolutes to talking about what should or should not be. If you aren't even actually sure your speculation is for sure true, why are you pushing it when assuming wrongly could do huge damage to us?

I will be incredibly disappointed if a game this large was started without any scum in it. It's negligent modding.

Sorry but you're wrong. The game needed 2/3 of the players to confirm. For all you know, all the scum confirmed before the game started.

---

I'm trying to decide if you are scum trying to push this for town cred or to get people to abandon their usual strategies for finding scum ... or if you're sincere. I honestly cannot tell. You present like you are trying to logically prove something, but if you understood the basic rules of logic, you would already have concluded that you cannot know whether your premises are sound and therefore you cannot trust any conclusions. The only thing you can do is wait and see if evidence of multi-ball shows up, at which point you can say you were "right", although it would be more a case of a blind squirrel finding a nut in this case. Your logic is unsound and therefore your conclusion does not logically follow.

In other words ... if you end up being right, it will be because you got lucky and nothing more.

[Drixx]

What "facts" am I ignoring, FA?

If you're going to come at me, you better be prepared to back it up.

[Drixx]

What "facts" am I ignoring, FA?

But I just don't like the amount of logic in his arguments. we're playing with humans here and I think viewing everything in a logical surface is a kind of ignoring some important facts.

I'm not a fan of full logical arguments. I think their never go deep enough to hunt the scum. they depends on the scum to slip and come to surface.

I think a combination of emotional and logical analyses are better

If you're going to come at me, you better be prepared to back it up.

what?!!! when I said I want to come at you?! your in my town lean list

Drixx, people don't act logically. Not even you. If you're basing your reads off of what a perfectly rational agent would do, you're going to have a bad time.

Scum, by definition, have to put a false narrative into the game. Since they know the other scum (even in multi ball they know some of the other scum, so the point holds), they have to engage the game and basically tell a story. Generally scum will take the opportunity to plant seeds early in the game to give themselves places to go later on. They, in effect, foreshadow their moves. The thing is... as informed as scum are in terms of alignment, they cannot predict the various surprises that come up in a game. That's where my logical approach catches them. When scum have to adjust their narrative to account for something unexpected, they can slip and contradict their own narrative, and I've lost count of how many I've caught that way.

There's something to be said for pushing people to see how they react; however, unless you have a very clear notion of how scum will respond and how town will respond, and you have good reasons to believe your notions are accurate ... a lot of times all you do is get into TvT fights, since most people will react when provoked.

Why do you think I pushed Nero? His narrative is a lie. Despite a little white knighting on his behalf by others, you can look at him and Titus in ISO and clearly see him instigating. It's not even subtle or a matter of viewpoint. He clearly came in swinging and trying to goad her into a fight, and then he clearly tried to blame it on her and push her for what he instigated.

[Drixx]

Unvote

VOTE: Postachi0n

[Drixx]

What "facts" am I ignoring, FA?

But I just don't like the amount of logic in his arguments. we're playing with humans here and I think viewing everything in a logical surface is a kind of ignoring some important facts.

I'm not a fan of full logical arguments. I think their never go deep enough to hunt the scum. they depends on the scum to slip and come to surface.

I think a combination of emotional and logical analyses are better

If you're going to come at me, you better be prepared to back it up.

what?!!! when I said I want to come at you?! your in my town lean list

I am? Cool. Unfortunately the rest of the quotes are inconsistent with this first one.

I'm trying to decide if you are scum trying to push this for town cred or to get people to abandon their usual strategies for finding scum ... or if you're sincere. I honestly cannot tell. You present like you are trying to logically prove something, but if you understood the basic rules of logic, you would already have concluded that you cannot know whether your premises are sound and therefore you cannot trust any conclusions. The only thing you can do is wait and see if evidence of multi-ball shows up, at which point you can say you were "right", although it would be more a case of a blind squirrel finding a nut in this case. Your logic is unsound and therefore your conclusion does not logically follow.

In other words ... if you end up being right, it will be because you got lucky and nothing more.

Esp and shinobi buddied. It was more obvious than the day.

this post here makes me think Drixx knows Esp alignment as well. I have no Idea what I'm suggesting but this connection was weird. this was what I wanted to mention in post 2366

Please read my posts carefully. I use language carefully and you seem to have missed a very important word. Let me add emphasis to help: First I talk about the terrible logic being employed to try and claim the game is multiball without any actual evidence ... and then I finish the post by saying: "In other words...

if

you end up being right, it will be because you got lucky and nothing more. (Emphasis added)

You , Dave , Pistachion and pignash

I'm sure there is a scum in here. Lets see the wagons of these 4 in a list :

---
Titus —

Davsto

,

Espeonage

,

Elyse

,

pistachi0n

Davsto —

Firebringer

,

Titus

,

Dwlee99

,

Drixx

pignash —

Shinobi

,

Shiro

,

Nero Cain

,

Frozen Angel

,

Firebringer

pistachi0n —

pignash

,

Grib

,

Titus

,

Dwlee99

,

Drixx

---

I need to think more.

pedit : are you skimming my posts?

Hey ... I'm like a baby shit yellow color in there. I wonder what that means?

sorry:

Blue : conf-town
Green : town
yellow : null
Orange : scum lean
Red : seems scum

Oh ... seems it means null? Null != town lean, does it?

[Drixx]

Pig is prob scum too and so is Heat but I really want to get Titus today.

It's insane how she manages to get townread. If you are town and you're townreading Titus, shame on you.

How about you actually make a case? The fact that you literally have "gut, lulz" for your entire reason and you would have been perfectly happy to push a 1v1 and then go "LOL, I'm IC" to avoid the consequences if it was a mislynch make me trust your "gut" about as far as I could throw you.

[Drixx]

I got murderous donuts. I'm not sure what I ever did to them to deserve it, but I'm sure we can work it out.

[Drixx]

I got murderous donuts. I'm not sure what I ever did to them to deserve it, but I'm sure we can work it out.

Murderous donuts? You should have gotten donuts but not the murderous kind.....

I think the donuts conspire to kill me when I'm not watching them closely. And here I thought all donuts were sweet.

[Drixx]

I know one thing Titus did was give Grib the ability to make a permanent neighborhood that could be talked in at any time. He used it with me. (Murderous little donut he was ... but town).

There's more to say, but I'm sort of interested if the people trying to float me as scum are just wayward or are scum. Two now dead conftown had me in their trust circle for a reason.

I am unfortunately not super well today, but that not well is just something to endure, so I'll be around off and on. I'm not sure if I have the energy to try and figure out the mess atm, but trust me you don't want a full explanation of what's going on with me. Just trust me when I say I wouldn't wish this on anyone.

[Drixx]

Your very likely town But not Confirmed town Drixx please don't go there.

pedit : I need to recheck. I'm pretty sure we have more conf mafia at this point

Nobody is confirmed town unless the mod says so. All I said is that there's a reason Titus and Grib trusted me. There's no reason for me to say more than that for the moment.

@mod - V/LA for 36-48 hours

[Drixx]

I asked this before and never got an answer. Did Nero ever push Titus as scum for arguing with him?

I hate Nosferatu's entrance though and would lynch the slot based on that alone.

I don't think so but other people seem to think it. Maybe I'm wrong but I still don't think it matters.
I think we really should just stay the course and kill Heat today.

I can get on board with Heat today ... if you guys will go and read Nero and Titus together in ISO. Objectively speaking, Nero entered the game, predicted a fight, and then went on to attempt to instigate Titus into a fight from that point onward. Nero clearly initiated it and he was clearly trying to provoke her into one of her famous fights. If I have to, I'll quote him and bold and explain why the things he said were provocative and likely intended to instigate a fight.

The question is why Nero wanted to provoke a fight. Since he lied about it afterward, I don't believe he was trying to do it to figure out Titus' alignment. Titus is dead now and town. I think that makes Nero's entrance pretty damning, and it also makes the people trying to say his posts weren't provocative and that he wasn't trying to provoke a fight suspect, in my view.

Obviously, one of those people is confirmed town so I don't know what to make of that except to say that I'm quite willing to do spoiler wall of quotes and bold/underline the parts of Nero's posts I'm talking about, and summarize the order of events. Anyone trying to argue the point after that is either just being ridiculously stubborn, or has some ulterior motive to try and misrepresent how things happened.

[Drixx]

I'm impressed at how efficiently Drixx killed this game by asking people to do stuff.

I wasn't aware I possessed this level of power. It's not even really a very lengthy exercise I asked people to engage in. The whole back and forth is like 20 posts, tops, and most (if not all) of them are short.

[Drixx]

Drixx tbh I agree that Nero slot is scum but Shinobi has a point heat can die first.

then we can lynch nos and depending on the flip we will get a pretty good idea on pig's slot

I picked up a game during the Holiday Steam sale which seems like a really good analogy for how I approach and solve mafia games. It's called Hexcells. You can probably find a gameplay video of it easily. Basically the information I have leads me to believe that a player is scum. That player flipping gives me information about other slots and allows me to continue solving the game. Eventually there's enough information that you can solve the entire puzzle. It's a perfect analogue to how I approach mafia.

So like I said. I'm okay with Heat today because I can see some merit in it and will gain information from it, and I don't see anything redeeming or any reason to hesitate in Heat's ISO.

That said ... the piece of the puzzle I really want to know is Nero. Titus flipped town, so if Nero's slot flips scum as I expect, then I get to review who was trying to make me look scummy for pushing him for his entrance. His flip could inform us quite a lot about several other slots.

I used to try and figure the whole thing out all at once, but inevitably kills and flips would invalidate assumptions and I ended up putting way too much effort in. Now I focus on sorting people and figuring out who is most probably scum given what I know. I'm sure there's some middle ground that works for people. I'm working on getting there.

[Drixx]

Thank you whomever did that kind thing for me during the night.

Erm ... I'm town. Like obvtown super hard (even though Elyse is still mad that I thought she was scum before she got conftowned).

Espeonage has been pinging me for days. I will get back to the computer later tonight and re-read the spots where it really made me the most suspicious of him and try and show why.

[Drixx]

Well that pretty much explains everything that was pinging me about you Espeonage. Freaking any time someone is talking to someone else in a PT, I swear it pings me somehow. Masons do the same thing to me.

[Drixx]

It's possible what we're seeing is mafia + sk. Unless Espeonage is gambiting here (and it doesn't look like it because what he said about Shinobi lines up), I'm not so sure there's necessarily two teams in play. I don't want to really assume either way actually. I'd rather PoE from what we know and just pick scum off until we win.

[Drixx]

Okay. We have a town block right? Like the only "link" in the town block that's at all questionable is Espeonage and myself, because I'm cleared via Espe. That can only be three things:

1.) He's really a joat, I'm really innocent.
2.) He's scum and gave a fake innocent on me
3.) We're both scum

Since I'm not scum, it could only be one or two, and frankly his explanation checks out, so I'm inclined to believe him. So erm ... let's PoE this to a win already? Someone want to help?

[Drixx]

I should probably share: I was given a 1-shot roleblock during the night.

[Drixx]

I am with Elyse on this one. I'm thinking Fire. Pig is reading town to me.

[Drixx]

Wow. I'm super dumb. I was given a 1-shot roleblock two nights ago. I role blocked Pisskop last night. There was no kill. Do the math.

I don't believe I'm crossing any lines by saying this: My brain was a bit fried by the more time consuming nature of setting up my first game being modded on site here, and I seriously just now remembered that I sent the roleblock in as soon as yesterday ended.

VOTE: Pisskop

[Drixx]

Oh ... I also just realized that I was spot on right about Nero. Maybe one day I'll actually be good at this game.

[Drixx]

okay?

You roleblocked a commuter and claimed to catch scum?

You're a confirmed commuter?

I role blocked you. No death happened. Nobody else has any explanation. But you know ... your claim totally clears you.

[Drixx]

Just ISO me. I was given a role block, it was confirmed by the person who gave it to me. Pisskop's claim to be an every other day commuter, by the way, is

not

confirmed.

Feel free to say something if anyone else in the town block has a reason why the kill failed.

It doesn't seem unreasonable for a 3rd party killer to have a commute ability, and it's certainly not a bad fake claim.

[Drixx]

Upon further thought, I'm not necessarily sure it's a solo third party. I was assuming that, but assuming I blocked the night kill, Pisskop would make sense as the person for a 2nd groupscum team to choose to carry out the kill, given his claim. Thoughts?

[Drixx]

Upon further thought, I'm not necessarily sure it's a solo third party. I was assuming that, but assuming I blocked the night kill, Pisskop would make sense as the person for a 2nd groupscum team to choose to carry out the kill, given his claim. Thoughts?

I'm just wondering how Shiro was

also

blocked.

Not by me. I got a 1-shot gifted and used it on Pisskop. Of the people outside the town block, he made the most sense to me if I posited a 3rd party killer instead of another scum team, so that was my thought process. Did you assume it was me who blocked Shiro before I said something?

[Drixx]

My role is vanilla. I had just the 1-shot BP that was gifted me.

[Drixx]

Obviously I didn't get a 1-shot BP. That's me thinking RB and typing BP. I claimed it yesterday and Pig confirmed giving it to me. I'm vanilla and the only thing I have been gifted all game was the 1-shot ROLEBLOCK which I targeted at Pisskop last night.

That's what I get for using abbreviations.

[Drixx]

no bloody idea, drixx has some explaining to do

How did you get a 1-shot BP, Drixx?

Answered above. I'm pretty surprised nobody realized "Maybe he screwed up which abbreviation he was typing", especially since I claimed having received it yesTerday and the giver confirmed giving it to me.

And given that he was able to give me something, obviously I started out as vanilla. And since I've been copped, and cleared, that puts me in the conftown pile.

If I HAD gotten a BP, sure as shit I wouldn't have talked about it. I'd much rather have tried to draw fire like I did in Mafiaception. Just saying.

---

This is a binary proposition we're looking at. There was no kill last night, and there are two possibilities:

1.) I roleblocked the killer (Pisskop) which resulted in no kill.
2.) Some other thing stopped the kill (remaining scum/3rd party killer withheld or someone else did something and just isn't saying so)

Given what we know, and that all the folks we know are town have checked in, it seems that nobody else took an action that would have stopped the night kill, so really it comes down to a simpler set:

1.) I roleblocked the killer (Pisskop)
2.) Whatever remaining anti-town player(s) are alive withheld the night kill to create confusion.

That's it.

[Drixx]

Not that it matters now.

If drixx rbed me than he is town. Except I had no actions anyway so how do we even know he isnt lying?

Because I'm cop cleared and cleared a second time because I was given the 1-shot roleblock, confirmed by the player who gave it to me. Why would I lie?

[Drixx]

Hi, I have an important night result.

Drixx is town. I am saying he is 100% confirmed.

Y'all gonna ask me to claim and someone had to go kill Shinobi so that's fucking wonderful. I am a JOAT. Neighbourize I used on Shinobi N1. There's a few clues. we both started defending each other out of nowhere because neither of us ended up dead. Shinobi townread me and I didn't get night killed after claiming, thus showing him to also be town. I used my Doctor on Shinobi N2. I roleblocked Frozen N3, the commute claim was sitting iffy but after the two kills I figured I was being paranoid.

And lastly Gunsmith on Drixx, where I got the result that Drixx has no gun.

So, what does this mean.

I am p certain that the town players left are Myself, Elyse, Drixx, and Shiro. That makes everyone else mafia. I am k to lynch whichever of them we think is most likely to not be Copenhagen.

[Drixx]

What if Drixx is a vanilla serial killer. SK can get away with no killing and blocking to test for scum or frame townies. Either works out good for him.

Serial Killers have guns, right?

[Drixx]

If you are positing me as scum, you have to include Espeonage as scum also. Please go read his post where he cleared me again and investigate on your own.

You

are the only mod confirmed town. Go look for yourself.

[Drixx]

The more I think about it, the more I think Shiro is scum.

Like what if the scumteam is Shiro/Espeonage/Drixx and Drixx is just trying to frame pisskop with the rb.

Idk I'm probably going to vote Shiro today. I don't have much time for content and will post tomorrow.

I am personally going YOLO with it.

VOTE: Shiro

Sorry Shiro, I hate lynching you, but I think you might be scum.

This kind of thing is why I said earlier this day phase that I thought Fire was scum. This post reinforces it.

[Drixx]

you have to include Espeonage as scum also

Shiro/Espeonage/Drixx

Yeah. I had more to say, but I decided that Elyse should go look for herself, and just didn't remove that from my post. I don't need to argue or try and convince her. She can go look and see what she thinks about what Espeonage said when he cleared me. I know that I'm town, that I was gifted a RB, that I used it on you and that we went from 2 kills to no kill. I can do the math.

[Drixx]

The only issue with that is if the scumteam is Shiro/Drixx/Espeonage, they could have won by killing someone last night.

So that's actually not the case because no one else has claimed something that could explain stopping the kill besides Drixx.

Exactly.

[Drixx]

The only possible scum team that could include me would be Pignash/Espeonage/Me.

Are you trying to argue that is the case Pisskop?

[Drixx]

is it? Cmon bro, youre getting overdefensive.

You're the one trying to posit a scum team that would have withheld the kill last night instead of just winning. I mean ... 'nuff said I think.

[Drixx]

By the way ... nothing we've seen flip nor any explanations explain Shiro supposedly being roleblocked over and over again, right? It's plausible that Shiro is the scum we're looking for ... except then why was there no kill last night?

If you posit intentionally withheld to frame whomever I chose to RB, then this should be easy. We lynch Shiro today for what appears to be a fake claim, and if Shiro flips town we should lynch you tomorrow.

[Drixx]

Did I say you tried to frame me? can you not put words in my mouth?

Please read again. I'm saying that if scum intentionally withheld in order to frame whomever I role blocked, then the play today is to lynch Shiro who has made a claim and then never produced anything from it. We've seen most of the game flip and we have no explanation for why. Given what we've seen flip, does it make sense to posit a straight roleblocker who has just camped on Shiro all game?

[Drixx]

Given what we've seen flip, does it make sense to posit a straight roleblocker who has just camped on Shiro all game?

Thats possible I guess. How does a roleblocker balance with the other team?

What we've seen was Goon, Goon, JOAT (Jail, RB, Doctor). I'm not sure that balances.

[Drixx]

So one team was 2 goons and a JOAT and the other team was 2 goons and a JOAT but you've been blocked all game long?

Don't get me wrong: I still think the most likely case is Pisskop was the killer and I blocked him. It wasn't random that I chose Pisskop. His claim is a very good fake claim to get to end game with, and Titus has been slowly winning me over to looking at Vote Counts and analyzing. I chose him because I viewed him as both the most likely candidate if we had a 3rd party killer, and I viewed him as the most likely player to be chosen by a scum team for the kill, if he was part of a team; primarily due to his claim.

My only real concern is that today is possibly MYLO. It's only LYLO if Pisskop is part of a 3 person team and I stopped the kill that would otherwise have won the game. So there's that.

[Drixx]

We're stalled here, and I'm sorry Elyse but I think you're going to have to choose. I cannot decide between Shiro and Pisskop. Shiro's claim would be absurdly bold as scum, but that doesn't mean Shiro isn't scum. Pisskop struck me as the most likely to be an SK and the most likely kill submitter for a 2nd scum team due to his claim, which is why I role blocked him. I am like 60/40 leaning towards Pisskop.

Here's as far as I can get with it logically. If there was a 3 person scum team, the game would be over unless my role block is the only thing that allowed this day to happen. That makes today potentially LYLO.

Another possibility is that we wiped out one scum team and the other had only two members, but had a full time role blocker in exchange for being smaller (which would explain Shiro's claim).

The final possibility is that we're dealing with a third party killer.

In two of those cases, Pisskop is at or near the top of the lynch order (imo) and in the middle case, Shiro shouldn't be in the lynch pool at all. So I think logically Pisskop is the lynch today.

I know we butted heads earlier, but please set that aside and just evaluate the logic of my analysis. Have I overlooked anything? I feel like we need to act as if we are in LYLO from now until the game ends, no matter what. I also feel like if we don't win with today's lynch, we are quite unlikely to have you as conftown going forward, so I would really appreciate as detailed a read as you have time for on everyone before the day ends.

[Drixx]

if there were 3 scum one of us would e dead by now

Unless my action stopped said kill. Occam's razor makes you the proper kill today. Occam's razor is not infallible; obviously. But just the same ... it requires many more assumptions for any other lynch to make sense.

[Drixx]

I agree that two 3-man teams is unlikely. The Goon/Goon/Joat wouldn't balance with a Goon/Goon/unlimited RB.

The fact that there is so much confusion is easily an indicator that something isn't right.

[Drixx]

Elyse ... ultimately you're going to have to decide. I think Pisskop is the best percentage play, but that doesn't mean it's the right one. I know it's crappy to put it on you but you're the conftown while the rest of us who are probtown are only that based upon other people's claims and setup spec. Fear is the mind killer. Nobody will blame you if it goes sideways. Be a good IC and be decisive. I'd rather lose proactively than win lazily.

[Drixx]

Drixx, what were you sent before? Who did you use it on? I sent you the RB because you made reference to receiving something from Titus earlier in the game. What happened with that?

You mean the murderous donuts? That was actually me being put into a neighborhood with Grib, where we were able to talk any time we wanted until he got killed. I called it murderous donuts because Titus was using donuts as the code for it when she was talking to Grib in thread, and the first thing Grib said to me was that he kind of wanted to kill me. We got along better after that.

Going back and re-reading that neighborhood, especially knowing Grib's alignment, makes me realize that Firebringer was on our radar way back then ... and just happens to still be alive. I'm not sure that changes the logical thought process for today very far, but it did refresh my memory on that count.

[Drixx]

My ordering is something like this, in case I'm dead tomorrow:

Firebringer
Pignash

I just had a thought. Were you blocked two nights ago shiro?

[Drixx]

My theory was that perhaps Pignash is not what he claimed but instead he could maybe be a role blocker who if he blocks someone vanilla gives them a shot of roleblock instead (would be an interesting mechanic and make a full time roleblocker less overtly powerful). He thought I wasn't vanilla when he targeted me, as evidenced by his confusion over the murderous donuts earlier in the game.

Theory doesn't work though as he obviously can't have targeted both of us.

If Shiro is being honest about the claim, then there's only a couple possibilities:

1.) Multiball with the 2nd scum team being smaller but having a full time rolblocker who has camped on Shiro
2.) An SK who instead of being given something more usual for an SK to get instead was given the ability to roleblock.

I can think of nothing else that makes sense with what we know and have to work with.

[Drixx]

Firstly: Natural Action Resolution

Roleblock is the same priority as Roleblock. But if Pisskop was both roleblocking and the designated killer for what appears to be a 2nd mafia team, I couldn't block both actions. It appears as if the resolution was to let him Roleblock Shiro but my Roleblock stopped the kill. That's the only explanation (apart from mod error) which makes sense.

Thoughts on remaining suspects:

Firebringer - Claimed Vanilla; ISO isn't very impressive. Was on the attempt to mislynch Shiro wagon.
Pignash - A vanilla cop who gives an invention to someone who is vanilla makes sense for balance. Allows for finding PRs but has a risk of giving out inventions.
Espeonage - Gunsmith ability does make sense in multiball.


Could make a case mechanically for all of them. Since Pisskop appears to be from a second team, it makes the most sense to assume we're in LYLO (and were also in LYLO yesTerday and only had a yesTerday because of the kill block). If Pisskop only had one partner, that's a better situation ... but I would suggest we be quite careful and assume that one vote in the wrong place could result in losing.

[Drixx]

Been thinking about this from a setup perspective. Pisskop flipped a different "flavor" mafia than the prior scum.

That other team was Goon/Goon/JOAT. Even if we posit the second team as having only two members, the presence of a non limited PR on the team makes it seem like a second member would be highly likely to be a goon. Firebringer is the only one without any ability. Pignash was able to give me a roleblock and Espeonage's claim lines up pretty well with what we observed in the game.

If the team is two members, I'm almost certain it's Firebringer. If there's a third member, Pignash seems more likely than Espeonage. I actually can't really figure out why town would have a Vanilla Cop who gives a 1-shot ability when they find someone without a role. How would that help the town? It's scum who need to find PRs. Having it give a 1-shot ability when targeting a vanilla seems like a decent way to balance it.

So yeah ... Pignash makes sense as a potential balance for a full time roleblocker, and if we're thinking a goon on the team, then Firebringer conveniently already claimed to be VT... (so why hasn't Pignash tried to give him an item to confirm that yet?).

[Drixx]

Pignash: who have you given what to? I'm very surprised you didn't give me something since you knew I used the roleblock and am thus back to being vanilla. I would expect a town you to want to be feeding a cleared town me abilities to use ...

Share your actions please.

[Drixx]

Ok yeah that makes sense.

I'll probably vote Firebringer today.

Me too

This is not a town post. I've already pointed out that the only safe assumption we can make is that we are perpetually in LYLO until we win or mislynch ... and first you make a LAMIST post and then say you plan to self vote.

[Drixx]

Why the hell are you so much by the textbook play drixx?
Its really silly.

This is game is half social and half logic.
Get down the social aspect.

So let me see if I understand what you're saying. A situation where the only assumption I can safely make is that the game is in LYLO is the time when I should abandon trying to logically solve the game and try my hand out at a new play style? Really?

[Drixx]

So let me see if I understand what you're saying. A situation where the only assumption I can safely make is that the game is in LYLO is the time when I should abandon trying to logically solve the game and try my hand out at a new play style? Really?

So let me understand this perfectly,

You honestly think I am scum because of those two posts?

Yep ... you caught me. I totally

never

said you were the most likely scum before you made those two posts. Oh ... wait ...

[Drixx]

There's no such thing as a set of rules or steps you can follow to always win mafia. Just because I focus on evaluating things with logic and look for inconsistency coming from scum players doesn't make me an automaton.

[Drixx]

There's no such thing as a set of rules or steps you can follow to always win mafia. Just because I focus on evaluating things with logic and look for inconsistency coming from scum players doesn't make me an automaton.

I kind of think you are though.

You cannot possibly know how cruel it was of you to say that to me.

[Drixx]

Well your posts don't really have a undertone to them of any emotion. Not to be a dick (though I tend to be one anyways) it's very hard to see it.

Even in that last post, I don't know if you are serious.
Sorry

I try to find scum through scum through those trying to faking emotions or using then manipulate, you don't do it all, any of it.

Sorry If I am being too mean.

On the occasions when I've allowed myself to respond to mafia emotionally ... it hasn't really turned out all that well for anyone involved. I tried adding in emotional language in one game and that was a ridiculous disaster. I'm an academic and I think and speak (and type) like one. That doesn't mean that I lack emotion; It's simply just not something that I wear on my proverbial sleeve.

[Drixx]

I'm fine with this. Do we buy espe at this point?

You and Espeonage are tied for 2nd in my list. I can't decide which of you is more likely to be paired with a roleblocker if the second team had only 2 people and both had roles to make up for smaller size. The fact that he could heal and gunsmith is just as troubling as the fact that you were meant to find PRs with a drawback if you found people without any role.

[Drixx]

Okay so he's been sitting there at L-1 for a LONG time. I'm going to wait a little longer but

intent to hammer

.

[Drixx]

Shiro. In what world is a team of myself, fire and piss dumb enough to send piss on the kill when by all accounts drixx was/is town reading me after he claims he has a block. It just makes zero sense. That's even iffy for a piss fire scum team.

This was Espeonage's last post in the game, well more than a week and coming up on 10 days ago. He shows as having been online today.

That makes me really paranoid. Any thoughts Elyse?

[Drixx]

I'll just think myself in circles. Time to see if we're right.

VOTE: Firebringer

[Drixx]

Great job Elyse. Bravo.

Well played Espeonage.

[Drixx]

multi-ball always feels inherently unfair to the scum teams. It has the most potential to go off the rails one way or the other too. Super hard to balance. The fact that it came down to 3 person LYLO and you had a shot probably means it was more well balanced than you are giving it credit for. I'm sure it felt hard though. I wish I could let you feel what SMITE felt like when I replaced in and then after you and Otolia both died and I was alone. I totally get feeling like the task is insurmountable.

I was legitimately telling you well played though ... you played very top notch and one different choice (kill Elyse and leave me alive) may have won you the game. I honestly can't say whether I would have voted for you or Pig.

[Drixx]

ty elyse

This. So much this. It's easy to overlook when you're not the one who doesn't know anything for sure and holds the game in your hands and has to decide. That's not a pleasant place. Well done.

[Drixx]

I tend to agree that small scum teams and a lot of clearing roles dont mix well.

You got mad unlucky. The chain of assumptions I used to RB you could easily have led me elsewhere. That RB doesn't happen and I think your 2-man team would have won.

[Drixx]

Glad Grib and Drixx were able to sort their differences. That's what I wanted the hood to be used for.

Too bad I couldn't get Drixx a vig lol.

The Roleblock I got from Pignash later was nearly as good as.

I was quite amused by the murderous donuts bit. If I can amuse myself in a mafia game I feel like I'm doing well.

[Drixx]

Thinking back. Had I lied more I probably would have won. Told too much truth.

And on the topic of rows on ms. Probably best not to air them. There are people I don't play with and people who don't play with me on principle and most of the time it isn't known to the blacklisted player. It means people don't get offended and allows for coexistence.

Truth is your greatest ally as scum. The more you can tell the truth (especially when you can tell the truth that from the right perspective outs you as scum but will be interpreted by town in a way that gives you town cred), the better. Like ... if you had killed Elyse, I honestly cannot say whether I would have gotten it right. It made zero sense to me why you would clear me if you were scum. I would have to really re-assess my priors and the only thing that really would have worked against you was your long stretch of not posting, and even then that only would have worked against you because you did it in SMITE when we were scum together.

[Drixx]

Fro99er just want to say, I don't hate you, but I seriously think all normal games should announce multiball before game, and that it was a little annoying to see it being multiball.

Nothing personally against you.

Multi-ball is okay for normal right? Announcing it openly to the game makes it even harder on scum, doesn't it?