A Musical Mafia! (Game over)

[davesaz]

Wow, you pulled back on the hydra thing pretty quickly when people began to question it.

[davesaz]

So is the Piped Piper. :p

I know! So many of you....

Seniors is a Hydra. That makes him just as good a vote as The Wrong Lynch for purposes of me taking a stand against Hydras. I was making a pun. I would have thought that was obvious (more right than Wrong?)

Well it wasnt as obvious to me, considering we were just talking about the seriousness of the votes at the time.
Now, are you seriously policy lynching TWL because they are hydra? They have made a few posts, what do you think of them?

Geez. No, I am not

seriously

policy lynching TWL because Hydra. I have no actual opinion of them yet.

I am having a hard time believing that you could seriously believe that either.

Not serious about a policy lynch.

On Hydras:

So, my whole game is reading people. Getting into their mindset. Reading what they said before vs. what they are saying now. Then re-reading them. Finding the inconsistencies. And a lot of time it's tone. Hydras can just make that exponentially more difficult. Because they are naturally inconsistent and don't have the same tone from post to post. That's (a)

(b) is a principle thing where being in a Hydra can be an excuse to be lazy and not post because there's someone else to pick up the slack for you.

(c) Is me being the old man shaking the stick. When I started playing, there were no such things as Hydras....

Serious about policy?

[davesaz]

Wow, you pulled back on the hydra thing pretty quickly when people began to question it.

Dave throws doubt on Axel without actually placing a vote. I think he's waiting for the wagon to gain traction before getting on.

The Hydra thing is kinda dumb anyways.

I'm gonna guess that you don't know me, in which case you can't be blamed for not knowing how I play.

[davesaz]

I'm not familliar with either Hiplop or EP.

Your case seems to be based off your familiarity with them. It doesn't mean much to me.

Actually it is mainly do to uni scummy things

-They ignored my buddy offer.
-1 page later they replied.

What this is telling me is that they are scum and want to avoid looking awkward so they didn't immediately reply to me. They thought about a reply and wanted me to stop attracting attention and posted incredibly late.
I would be scum reading anyone for doing that.

I'm not sure what to think of this buddy offer thing. If you had done the same to me, I'd be thinking it could be a trap. It's a no-win question -- agree to buddy and you're scum eager to make a friend, refuse or fail to notice and you're scum wanting to avoid picking up obligations.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Friendless Seniors

This

could

be a pure RVS haven't read the thread vote, but not sure I want to believe that. It would also be a cheap way to get onto one of the biggest wagons without a reason.

[davesaz]

Why haven't you voted Axel yet?

If you don't intend to vote him why do you keep making sidelong comments on his wagon?

I don't really think "this is what I do" is a very good justification.

I believe the nature of the game is to comment on what we see and watch to find out what others do in response. Is that not your understanding of how it goes?

[davesaz]

My 100 is pretty much the answer for the question in 95 as well. Which is also why I said I didn't (yet) know what to think about the buddy thing either.

[davesaz]

Why is it surprising to you that I question townreads on me?, Specially coming from someone who's been screwed over by scum me once, and been my scum partner once before, I would think you'd want to sort me out, and your townread on me stuck out like a sore thumb. I think it was an early attempt at budding me and once i reacted to it, you're trying to reverse your read on me.

Not trying to interfere with your conversation, but this is as good a post as any to use as an entry for my own questions.

You seem much more engaged than the previous games I remember. What I thought I'd see was endless off-topic comments and not much substance.
I don't think I've witnessed your scum game, so I can't pin this as being alignment indicative by personal experience...
But it makes me wonder if there is a reason for the change in pattern?

[davesaz]

I believe the nature of the game is to comment on what we see and watch to find out what others do in response. Is that not your understanding of how it goes?

That's cute and all but my question still stands.

If you found his behavior suspicious why didn't you vote for him?

If it wasn't suspicious why did you point it out.

False dichotomy. You leave out the possibility that the behavior is neutral (or that I haven't formed an opinion on it yet) but the responses to my comments from him and others will help me sort people.

Pedit @Sakura: I have no idea how long it has been -- a short enough time that noticing the change didn't take any effort.

[davesaz]

False dichotomy. You leave out the possibility that the behavior is neutral (or that I haven't formed an opinion on it yet) but the responses to my comments from him and others will help me sort people.

That's not how a false dichotomy works, as evidenced by the fact that you managed to answer my second question while pretending you didn't.

Both of the statements you made about Axel were accusatory in tone, they didn't sound neutral to me at least. Do you think Axel is town or scum?

@B
Dunno man, being self involved isn't really a scum tell.

You presented an either/or question which presented that there could not be any other answer, where the answer was none of the above. It doesn't get any more false dichotomy than that.

I made it very clear that my read is null. Your push however is not.
VOTE: Mirhawk

[davesaz]

So many quote walls

I haven't seen a single one yet. Your threshold must be much lower.

[davesaz]

I am not a fan of Sakura, or Davesaz.

@Sakura: (per post #64) did you

really

think that I was advocating for a "policy" lynch of all Hydras? Really?

@Davesaz: please explain to me how you feel I "pulled back" on "the Hydra thing" (post #69). Do you think I am advocating for a policy lynch of all Hydras?

Your 68 was a direct response to people making comments (in particular Sakura's 64 which your 68 quoted) about your apparent interest in PLing hydras. You posted something, people reacted, you posted a retraction. By definition that is pulling back. My comment was, in part, a means of prodding you to find out if you would be defensive about it being called that. You later posted about hydras again, and I pointed out the apparent inconsistency between 68 (implying it's not serious) and the later post explaining your stance. I don't remember if you responded to that or not...

Do I think it was serious? Don't know, your own posting implies it is at least partially serious, but even that could just as easily be a joke or itself a reaction test. I don't think it's alignment indicative by itself, since it's hard to distinguish between scum testing the waters and town fishing for (scum) sheep.

[davesaz]

@Beeboy: when you say you know how Friendless Seniors would react to you, are you talking about one of the hydra heads in particular? Or is this a Hydra that you have played with before? I don't get your conviction given that Seniors hasn't done much of anything.

I have a reasonable understanding how both would play. Randomly voting a lynch bait and providing no other good content is verrryy verrrrry far from what both would do as town. This is just general but even more truthful in regards to them because they know snarky is lynchbaity.

The delayed reaction to my joke buddy comment is more general and less specific to them.

In as much as this is a meta-argument and I have never played with either of those people, I am curious if anyone else who has played with them (Friendless Seniors/hiplop/Errantparabola) agree/disagree with this assessment?

I found this specific use of meta questionable, this early in the game. Contrast to my use of meta re: Sakura, where I noted a difference but did not attempt to read by it.
What do you think about the difference in approach?

[davesaz]

Hey Dav who else do you think is scum right now?

Only the one very weak scum read, and not really much in the way of town reads. It usually takes days of activity, regardless of how fast the pages go.

@Spiffeh -- who?

[davesaz]

That was interesting but it took until 12:45 AM to read, and I don't really have time to post a lot. (need a nodding off to sleep smiley)

The implied miller CC without actually saying she's miller would fit for scum!Amihan if she's the type of scum who can lie easier by omission than outright.

I did not like Mirhawk's reaction. It smelled of not wanting to get caught believing the CC too easily. But I have often had the same attitude of not being sure when I'm town, so that leaves me with mixed feelings.

Feelings, that reminds me that someone asked why I prefaced one of my questions with "don't want to interrupt your conversation but..." words. I'm polite, for the most part. Some people get angry if you interrupt like that. Town me is just as likely to not want to make enemies as scum me...

Ogre, I'm fairly certain that I have not played with that username before. Must be an alt, but I won't pry.

Too sleepy to make this anything more than stream of (nearly un) consciousness, but: I was about to move Mirhawk up a notch until the latest bit happened. One of Pistachion and Amihan likely scum but I can't tell which yet. Oh, and if scum don't have daychat then Mirhawk's calls for a direct claim could be coaching -- no way to tell if that is actually the case, just making a note of it for later. I doubt seriously that beeboy could be scum and play this way, but it's only weak town because I have no background to go on. Interesting side fact, I don't know if I have ever had a strong read on Spiffeh in any game, and that trend is continuing.

[davesaz]

2) Why mention Dave only instead of me who also thought it wasnt jokey?

Didn't see you pushing Axl and then saying you didn't.

I wasn't aware that two posts on a subject (not counting replies) could be classified as a "push". Certainly wouldn't be the way I think of it. Evidently your standards are lower.

[davesaz]

You said you will be busy. How does that prove that your entry wasn't forced?

Alright

I'm going to break my leave of Mafia for six months

on spring break~.

[davesaz]

I wasn't aware that two posts on a subject (not counting replies) could be classified as a "push". Certainly wouldn't be the way I think of it. Evidently your standards are lower.

Giving reasons to scumread someone does count as pushing.
Don't really get how you'd think it doesn't.

Pointing out a questionable post in a way that encourages that person to clarify does not equal a scumread.
I suppose you think reaction tests are scummy?

[davesaz]

Also Dave you're not the only one who thought they played with Orge before. The name is familiar to me too.

Ogre said I was familiar -- my post was saying I'd never seen the name before (or more correctly don't remember seeing it which is almost the same thing but not quite as I fall into the "almost eidetic memory" category).

[davesaz]

pedit: So you are saying it was a reaction test?

Not exactly, I would use that term for a planned activity where this was more spur of the moment. But see 100 for the relevant philosophy.

[davesaz]

9 players in the game (not counting multiple hydra heads) have direct meta that this is how I ask questions. You are also welcome to refer to my wiki. A great example is 581, where I famously blew up at Whatisswag for questioning exactly the same kinds of posts.

Fewer can attest to my not wanting to make enemies, and I'll concede that this is a relatively new adjustment. I started off just butting in and getting told off for it.

The way you are continuing to engage screams town, compared to Mirhawk who just figuratively crossed his arms and stopped listening.

[davesaz]

See 503
pedit: ninja'd

[davesaz]

"Bastard" generally means a game where the mod lies in some way. Certain roles like Jester are considered as "bastard roles". Any game which is advertised as "normal" or "non-bastard" is limited to not containing any of those roles.
Correct on the definition of Jester; no they typically don't kill someone -- that is vengeful.

pedit: ninja'd again but you didn't answer the last part of the question so at least this still has value lol

[davesaz]

Checking in

The way you are continuing to engage screams town, compared to Mirhawk who just figuratively crossed his arms and stopped listening.

This is coming from the guy who started ignoring me when he realized he couldn't justify his vote.

When you started avoiding me I engaged with other things, when ami didn't come back I did the same thing.

I'm not aware of anything from you that I have avoided. If there is anything you'd like to know I'm happy to oblige.
The fact remains that my play style is to ask oblique questions. 9-10 players in this game (counting hydras as 1) have personally seen me do it.

[davesaz]

Skybird, are you caught up? Any reads?

[davesaz]

I've only been skimming today to see if anything caught fire.
Happy to see Nacho, think that slot looks townish, though I want to check a previous game for comparison.
Ogre looks more town having seen more posts.
Not sure what's up with Dramonic, his reads feel really strange. Seriously lacking in reasons. If they were scumreads with a chance to grow legs I'd be concerned that he's taking town's temperature on them.
Lots of lurkers, but too early to really do much about them.

[davesaz]

You really do need to listen to the people who have played with me before. Not that one vote really matters that much, but wasted effort that doesn't go into finding scum becomes harmful after a point.

In separate news, I'm not seeing anything town from Dramonic. Is this normal for him?
<hint for Mirhawk -- which alignment DOESNT KNOW the other person's alignment, so has to ask questions?>

BTW, I agree with your position on Swordsworth. Given a choice between a flip that yields information and one that doesn't, the information is more important early game. If we need to PL lurkers it can be done later in the game if/when we run out of useful PR results, if any. (this may change if we reach deadline though)

Pedit: the above in reply to Mirhawk.

Sakura & Speffeh -- Hopefully Swords will start posting after V/LA, and it would not surprise me for it to be an easy sort when he does.

[davesaz]

No he obviously did realize it, and then decided it looked bad and backtracked on it two posts later. Yeah that's a thought process people have, I've done it before as scum.
No voting there sucks because there was definitely enough to make scumreads from at that point. He didn't say anything about changing his mind until prodded pages later, he just naked voted.
Yeah I am

This argument sucks as this is a thing town do too.
Town might do it for different reasons, but they still do it.

This is the Ogre thing, right?
Changing your mind like that is a human thing, not just town/scum. If it were in response to someone questioning him on it, after sufficient time to work out the pros and cons, then it could be more alignment indicative. I certainly wouldn't want to make a whole case on that one thing.

[davesaz]

Mala/gm are definitely town

What's up with using definitely for so many of these town reads? I agree with the direction on most of them but the magnitude is questionable.
Pedit: I said it first, or at least tried to, but you used fewer words.

[davesaz]

I know I'm going to get blasted for pointless "set-up" speculation, but I don't care. Bring it on.

I do have an issue, but it's not with the setup speculation per se.
There is a lot going on that you might comment on instead of setup. For example, what do you think about Spiffeh's "definite town" reads? How about Dramonic listing scumreads but saying nothing at all about them other than to just list them?

Pedit: Dammit, I wanna be the first one to make a point sometime this game.

[davesaz]

In separate news, I'm not seeing anything town from Dramonic. Is this normal for him?

Repeating question since I didn't see much response to it. I think Dramonic is scum flying under the radar, but I don't know if this is normal for him.
Scum reads with no apparent reasons, avoiding big wagons, not addressing the topics of the day -> classic active lurking scum mode, IMO.
VOTE: Dramonic

Please discuss.

[davesaz]

I would ask if there's a reason you seek so much approval, but I'm not a fan of rethorics.

Approval interests me not. What does interest me is opinions on whether you do this all the time or only when you're scum.
I also succeeded in almost doubling your post count, which would have helped in sorting had it also increased the average post length a little. Sadly not yet.

[davesaz]

dram tbf you aren't really doing much

At least

I'm

voting scum

I'm always willing to listen to the reasons, but you haven't given any. Why should anyone believe you?

[davesaz]

Yeah, let's do this.

Unvote;

Vote: Dramonic

I wonder why you waited until now. Is it because there wasn't a vote before and you didn't want to be the first?

[davesaz]

Like I tried to mislynch Dram for playing like this as scum so <.<

I almost misread this as as scum claim.

Because he always plays like this regardless of role p sure and its not a good reason to wagon him for.

That would have been good information in reply to the first place I asked.

[davesaz]

The most active player is always going to get a favorable nod, and I liked his early enthusiasm.

Yuck

Wait wtf I missed this
This is a terrible town tell from Axel

To clarify, are you saying Axel is using a terrible reason to townread?
Do you think he's scum for it?

[davesaz]

K all caught up and I even read ALL of the long posts!!!

Town: {Amihan, Sakura Hana, Tammy, The Pied Piper, davesaz, podoboq, TWL}
Townlean: {beeboy, True Ogre, pistachi0n, SirCakez}
Null: {tictac, Friendless Seniors, dramonic, millar/Cerb}
Scumlean: {Mirhawk, Axelrod}
Scum: {Skybird, Swordsworth}

I think that's everyone

I plan on elaborating on this and answering any questions later but I have to go rn

VOTE: Skybird

You might be but I am too

Ready to elaborate yet?

[davesaz]

Are you trying to call 1001 an elaboration? I had trouble pinning down why you're voting Skybird.

[davesaz]

Are you trying to call 1001 an elaboration? I had trouble pinning down why you're voting Skybird.

Actually I really don't get how you still can't understand why I'm voting for Skybird after reading that post?

It's one thing to not be convinced but I don't buy that you can't pin down why I'm voting for her

when I made that post specifically to explain why I'm voting for her

Plenty of inferences can be made from it, granted. I just have a preference for straightforward "Joe is scum because of X,Y,Z" type posts.

[davesaz]

Decided I'd follow up with specific commentary, to make my point more clearly and perhaps generate discussion.
I guess the way I thought of this post was that I didn't see it directly as elaboration because one would need to know/remember your read in order to correctly interpret the post. Maybe the issue is that it only reads cleanly in context?

I'm trying to sort Ami right at the moment. I didn't like her statement in 685 because it sounds like she doesn't want to scum hunt.

And you think scum are more likely to be open about this?

Like you're not looking really in depth here and it bothers me. On the surface, Ami's comment about not scum hunting as aggressively looks a little weird, but what is the scum motivation in admitting this? You're singling this one point out because it's a little odd and harping on it even though it's not alignment indicative.

This criticizes Skybird's position but doesn't exactly call it summy.

Just noting these two posts because Podo is soft defending Ami here. Possible association?

And you're already drawing associations despite saying you were still trying to sort Ami, all to support what I assume will turn into an Ami scum read?

For instance, what's the difference between podo defending Ami and myself defending FS earlier on? Or anyone defending anyone else?

I think you're reaching really far all so you can have a unique scum read.

And I have been able to identify town!Skybird relatively well in the past so this isn't a playstyle issue.

Is drawing associations uniquely scum, or do town do that too?
Reaching is indeed seen by many as scummy
And it's possible to infer that you haven't identified town!Skybird in this case.

Yeah, it was just that I was hoping for / expecting more.

[davesaz]

Cakes scum hunting literally consists of him saying people are playing objectively poorly not scummy.
He hasn't done any solid scum hunting yet and he is trying to give off the impression he is actively doing so.

I hadn't gotten that impression but am open to looking at it more closely.

[davesaz]

Chasing after Snarky isn't going to get us anywhere imo.

No better than pushing Swords would have been. Can't leave those slots till late game but no use in going after them early.

[davesaz]

I'm treating this replace as null, because I'm confident I'll be able to read the replacement and we have plenty of time.

I'm not so sure about

all

replace outs being null. I can think of a player (not in this game) who has replaced out upon seeing a scum role without even posting, and the same player might have replaced out as scum after going under heavy suspicion early (I don't remember her role in that 2nd game, nor remember exactly which game it was to look it up -- if I weren't lazy I might check her threads...).

[davesaz]

Pretty sure it already was. (folks who might be able to guess whom I'm talking about need not take any action)

[davesaz]

Someone asked who has played with me before and would have seen questions of my style. Easy enough, though we should be well beyond this already.

Skybird
The Pied Piper (Plotinus/nachomamma8) (both heads)
Friendless Seniors (hiplop/Errantparabola) (both heads)
Sakura Hana
Ranger
Cerberus v666 (as hydra, don't remember with whom)
Spiffeh
THE WRONG LYNCH (Malakittens/goodmorning) (both heads)
pistachi0n
True Ogre (as unnamed main/other alt??)

@Ranger, I haven't seen the catchup via page by page read list style before, it's interesting. I think I'd rather see commentary on why the changes, but I can verify that it's much more common to see this style list from you than prose, at least early.

[davesaz]

So, re: podo. #1178 is the most righteous thing anyone has posted this entire game, and I guess I'm pretty much never voting for him. So I hope he's Town or we're just going to lose.

What did you find righteous about it?

[davesaz]

Wow, a post that takes a whole browser page dedicated to figuring a player out, that's interesting in its own right. It would be interesting even if it weren't me. (pedit I lost the part of the quote tag identifying the post but it's not difficult for others to find it and I don't want to dig it up again so carrying on...)

Plenty of inferences can be made from it, granted. I just have a preference for straightforward "Joe is scum because of X,Y,Z" type posts.

You may prefer this when you're reading but you don't prefer this when you're writing.

I do try to make reasons clear for my scumreads, though it would not surprise me a bit if they are less clear for others. One of my RL struggles is difficulty in getting my assumptions right about what other people understand. Also available time varies a lot plus I do know how to strategically use a weak push for reactions...

But this is where I think that you're at with this game right now, correct me if I'm wrong:

Your main scumreads are dramonic and mirhawk, in that order. You're getting suspicious of Axel or are in the process of trying to sort him right now. You were scumreading one of amihan/pistachi0n before the claim was retracted but haven't interacted with them since.

Fairly accurate.

Your biggest townreads are me and True Ogre, maybe beeboy too but you've had that read for a long time and I'm not sure whether it's still existing or if it's gone stale. You're townleaning tictac too.

No read on tictac at all. And "biggest" is relative, I typically don't have someone in a strong townread this early and this game is no exception.

You were defending seniors early on (90, 92) but you backed down pretty quickly in response to pressure and haven't interacted with them since. I'm worried that this is a result of beeboy taking the stance that everyone who supported his tunnel was town and everyone who resisted it was scum because beeboy was making a lot of noise and you may have worried that beeboy's guns may be turned on you. You've been explicitly townreading beeboy since 463.

Defending Seniors is incorrect. I didn't have a read at that point. It is more accurate to say that in 90 I was questioning the method used by beeboy. There was no point in followup because it was obvious that beeboy was going to tunnel the point. 92 is a weak scumread of Snarky. No fear involved, I feel confident that this playerlist is likely to read me correctly (after getting it wrong multiple times in the past). As noted below, beeboy is more "not scum" than "clearly town".

Everyone else is a morass of null for you but gun to your head you are more suspicious about this half of the players (S -> W): mirhawk, dramonic, Axel, spiffeh, skybird, cakez, podoboq, snarky, amihan, pistachi0n,
and more trusting of this half of the players (S -> W): True Ogre, Us, beeboy, tictac, The Wrong Lynch, seniors, cerb, tammy, sakura, ranger

Spiffeh on the nulltown side, cakez is stale and needs review, amihan is much more town than that, tictac is much lower, seniors somewhat lower. Ranger could do this as scum so I'd start her in the middle and will need to see post-catchup activity to determine whether this is a strong town entrance or a masterful scum one. I'm warming up to the Ranger style reads lists, with fewer tiers, vs the S->W method. In fact enough players have town S->W and scum W->S, or vice versa, that I didn't interpret the town list correctly on first read. Tammy and Sakura would be higher, I haven't put much effort into sorting your slot and you'd be lower due to that, and it's most accurate to say that beeboy doesn't look scum but I wouldn't sheep.

Do you think Mirhawk and Dramonic are scum together, or are your reads on them independent? Is Dramonic bussing Axel?

I don't generally make associations this early, and in this case everything is still very independent.

You said that you have trouble reading Spiffeh, is this in both directions? Do you tend to townread him as scum and scumread him as town, or do you tend to scumread him as both alignments?

For me, trouble reading means a player stays null for a long time and it's never really strong either way.

[davesaz]

I assume that the prospective effects of lynching players in 1382 are assuming

scum

lynches? What if you're wrong and they're town?

[davesaz]

Ranger's replace-in as scum in Open 627 was similar to this one, though much shorter. I don't remember seeing her town replace-in so it's not enough info to make a definitive call by itself. However I find the Tammy read especially troubling, since her second post wan't until page 20. I would never give a read on a single RVS only post, much less a top of the list read, and can't think of a town motivation to do so. Now that I've seen Ranger's scum game this looks pretty suspicious. I also got some feeling that she wanted to enter the flow with her reads agreeing with the majority.
VOTE: Ranger

[davesaz]

My position on those listed by beeboy above:

Tammy - Stale read and the posting gap will throw me off a bit, but she was town the last I remember
Seniors - TBH I never looked closely given so many people were "on the case" so needs review. Did not have a specific town read here
Ranger - see my previous post
Cakez - stale read, thought he looked pretty town early but didn't disagree when someone pointed out it seemed shallow
Tictac - can't remember the last thing he posted, probable active lurker type scum
Sakura - Don't remember anything that I thought was scummy, think she's a town read but haven't been thinking about it much
TWL - Would need to refresh my memory, think I've seen both good and bad

[davesaz]

This whole argument with mirhawk being scum because he knew ami was lying is like wtf are you people serious.

Does anyone have anything better than this for reading him as scum because like really people?

I'm actually really serious. Those who want to lynch him, can you tell me why he's scum without referencing the miller thing? Please and thank you.

I was scum reading Mirhawk and had voted him before the miller thing because he was pushing on me for my early questioning. It felt like scum trying to look like scumhunting while staying off the major wagons. Then his reaction to others pushing him on miller seemed pretty genuine, and I don't really like those knee-jerk "ooh, he knew too much so it's a scumslip" kind of cases. I'd be willing to compromise there as we get closer to deadline but have my doubts.

[davesaz]

So Ranger says we should decide between Mirhawk and FS today.

@Ranger: whose lynch and flip provides the most information for town? Is there another metric that we should use to determine who we lynch today?

How did Ranger suddenly become the town leader? This rates a

FOS

in my book.

[davesaz]

When you say quote stripes do you mean the multi quote of a lot of posts, or snipping a big post into smaller bits to respond to them, or big pyramids of quotes instead of responding to the latest?

[davesaz]

Of the 4 top I rank them Ranger, Cakez, FS, Mirhawk.

[davesaz]

I would support a tictac wagon, but it's getting awful late and other options give us more info imo..

[davesaz]

I like the approach to trying to get Snarky to give reads in 1832 and the detailed response to my earlier responses in 1833.
I think that's enough to townread Pied Piper, at least for now. (TBH, I don't remember if I had a read on them, and this is keeping in mind that it would be easy for someone who is not under pressure to get town points this way)

[davesaz]

Hmm, I was wrong on Ranger, right on Tammy, can use Spiffeh's flip to improve my ability to read him.

I think Skybird is pretty likely to be town, would like to hear detailed reasons for those votes. Need to review who Spiff was scum reading, and do some VCA.

[davesaz]

While I'm off doing that research I mentioned, here's a good use of a vote.
VOTE: dramonic
Time for more than rolling your eyes.

pedit: Oh, I think tictac is scummy all right. Just not in a huge hurry, with so much to review from d1.

[davesaz]

Wife's birthday -> analysis will be later.

[davesaz]

Hey folks, we need more dramonic votes.

[davesaz]

To get him to talk.

[davesaz]

the fuck happened to that quote.

You could try actually commenting on the game state.
I can go along with tictac being scum. It would help if you explain why you think this is the case.

[davesaz]

Dave, talk to me about why we need more dram votes please.

You guys... this isn't town. This is scum trying to be helpful.

I don't think so. I see her as town wanting to get a grip on whether I'm on to something solid in my dram push. Right now there isn't much behind my dram push, but I'm reasonably certain that Skybird's actions come from town.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Pistachi0n

[davesaz]

VOTE: dramonic
Back to my windmill for now. Though I doubt it will result in him talking.

[davesaz]

Oh, look, it's a post of more than 2 words. Problem is, hindsight is good but it doesn't do anything to help with reading you.
One of your scum reads is wrong. Not sure about the other two.

I too have an issue with the "wagon analysis". Tell us why you have a problem with it.

[davesaz]

Announcement: pistachi0n is town-aligned.

UNVOTE: pistachion

VOTE: Skybird

Umm, why is that worthy of a vote?

[davesaz]

Because literally the only thing she did was pop in, unvote and leave. No comment at all on Pist being IC or how shifty that wagon was.

I believe quoting the mod counts as commenting on it. And disagree that the wagon was shifty. Ogre told us that pistaschi0n was lying, and we wagoned her. That's what you do to liars. Dismantling it when it turns out she was town is what you do too.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE: pistachi0n

Claiming Miller was really shitty.

So I got a question for you. Your "result" was that she "wasn't miller". So you got "innocent child" as a result? And this was something to wagon? I'm trying to figure out a non-bastard way you could receive that result and have it lead you to believe it was worth a vote.

[davesaz]

Then it occurred to me that he was probably a role cop, and Pistachion likely has a nonstandard role name.

Ah, ok that would make sense.

[davesaz]

@dave What is your read on Skybird?

Back to my windmill for now. Though I doubt it will result in him talking.

Why then?

Ya posted after this, but didn't answer.

Skybird looks town to me.

Why vote dramonic? Maybe others will finally pick up that he's scum.

[davesaz]

Mostly just a feeling.

[davesaz]

I already said, her actions seem to look like they come from town. I'm not interested in elaborating more.

[davesaz]

After reading the conversation between Cakez and Mirhawk, Mirhawk is moving up on my town list. I feel he has made some good points on Cakez.

Dave you think this came from town? Why?

It lacks definition, in particular what post range she's talking about, and even more so what aspect of the conversation. In a vacuum I wouldn't consider the post to be something that can be used for alignment.

oh I thought I did this already
VOTE: Tictac

This move is off Skybird onto Tictac. What's your motivation?

[davesaz]

big post in spoiler

Spoiler: big post

If I had to consolidate, it'd be on VOTE: Axel for his posts reeking of effort concealing motivation.

Not the biggest fan of my wagonmates but I'm not too fond of the other wagons.

Still mostly V/LA; will get access again later tonight.

*furious dryhumping*

In the meantime, I'll put my vote somewhere I know it belongs. VOTE: dramonic. I get that he's a better vig target, but he's the only person I consider obvscum right now, so that's where I'm gonna park while I finish up some projects over the next two days.

Multiple people have repeatedly talked about and referenced games where dramonic does this as town as well. While I could expect a vote for uselessness, it concerns me that you seem to ignore those points and continue on with just calling him obvscum.

I know your play and I know you're not a shallow thinker. So what's up here?

He's scum is what's up

He's just scumreading the people who are attacking his play.

I'm pretty sure I called out all three of your asses before you adressed me.

VOTE: Podo Dram is actually just town this game, sry mate.

I have absolutely no idea how you came to that conclusion, and I'm legitimately confused as to how you can't see my logic.

1) I think that dram's play is unreadable by its very nature. I think that's a liability for town.
2) I think that dram's play and lack of contribution is scummy, and leads him to be an incredibly easy lynch in the late game. I think that's a liability for town if dram is town, and we should cut our losses early in that case.
3) I also think dram is obvscum based on his bad scumreads, providing no reasoning as to why they're scumreads, and not cooperating with town in any meaningful way.

Right now, any of those three reasons alone is more than enough to make me feel comfortable with dram's lynch. While dram is a better vig hit, I don't feel comfortable right now parking on anybody else, because I don't feel comfortable with the lynch of any other players without further review, which I can't get done at the moment. So if somebody gets lynched while I'm getting work done, I'd much rather it be dram than anybody else, because dram at least

needs

to be removed from this game for the benefit of town.

I understand if you disagree with any of that logic, fine. But I believe you can see where I'm coming from here, and if you scumread me for it, I'm honestly confused as to how you're drawing that conclusion.

That is one shitty excuse to vote me mate. You're "not comfortable" voting someone else without review? That is such wishy-washy bull

His reads aren't solid. I know I'm town, I don't scumread Axel right now, and I'm no longer convinced about tictac. I can see either of them flipping scum at some point, but their alignment is not obvious, and picking the three players he did as early as he did and not wavering is incredibly scummy. It's without logic, and it's proven without logic, BECAUSE HE REFUSES TO PROVIDE LOGIC DESPITE BEING ASKED TO ON MULTIPLE OCCASIONS, INCLUDING

FROM YOU

.

I'm not going to waver unless you provide a reason for me to, but every post you make just confirms my read further so...

Not only is this eight word post from dramonic useless, off base, and not used to support any meaningful dialog, but it's against YOUR SLOT, which theoretically you should KNOW is town. How could you possibly use this as evidence to read dramonic as town, enough to almost consider him obvtown?

Okay, I want everyone to take a moment to read that quote and tell me what sort of town tries to convince someone of a read by saying "But he attacked you, therefore he must be scum!"

So I guess the answer to the rest of that post would be that yeah, you're just a bad player

it's very unlikely that i'm going to want a dram lynch today, but the way he's pushing it is town town town town town town town

TPP come on

VOTE: Skybird

Whatever, I'm back here.

And after I dryhumped you for a good fifteen minutes. SHAME man.

Wow, it can talk. Who would have guessed?

UNVOTE:

I'm thinking I like the Cakez wagon, but need to do some rereading first. It's going on bedtime so that's gonna be tomorrow at the earliest.

[davesaz]

I mean in comparison to Tarot this isn't that elaborate. Very standard roles flipped here so far.

Still think this after True Ogre v. Pistachi0n?

[davesaz]

I'm caught back up now and I think it's time to vote.

VOTE: Sir Cakez

Egh. This vote gives me the willies. I really despise naked votes with zero explanations/justifications. Especially on leading wagons. Skybird review incomming.

If she's town, and I'm pretty sure she is, I believe that voting the other leading wagon is the way that town keeps themselves from getting lynched.
I believe she had previously given reasons on Cakez, but am not positive on that.

[davesaz]

Seriously dude, do you not understand the word "lately"?

I did not say you were calling everything scummy in the first place. I said it SEEMED like you were. I am showing that you took 4 of my most recent posts and called them scummy. See the bolded large statement from you above? See the word bolded in my response?

This is just a semantics argument now, you know what I mean.

If it's semantics, then why are you acting like it makes Skybird scummy?

[davesaz]

How does last 4 posts = everything I post lately?

They were literally 4 posts in a row. Out of those 4 posts, it was every post.
Duh.

[davesaz]

How is it relevant to justify a scum read yesterday on someone who flipped town?

[davesaz]

Disliking davesaz this game. Dude is usually much more of a prescence. I remember him lurking as scum another time, too.

I'm trying to do stuff, to wit: pushing dram to post more than one line, defending my strong Skybird townread, trying to figure out if Cakez is scum or merely wrong. I'm a lot better after a scum flip, give it a little time.

[davesaz]

Btw if my slot didnt already claim I am the neutral playwriter, at night I neighborize two people. My win condition is when I neighborize 3 pairs of people with opposite alignments from each other.
/s

either none of you get this reference or I am just reallyyyy unfunny

Got it but i was grilling steak at the time.

[davesaz]

Town. But that's not what you're looking for either.
Where's the fire btw?

[davesaz]

Skybird, are you caught up? Any reads?

Yeah, I'm starting to do ISO's now to further my reads but right now here's where I am:

My strongest townread is Tammy. I'm feeling pretty confident she is town. Spiffah is also pretty town.

I'm leaning town on Dramonic. He's playing like he did in the last game I was in with him. I'm also leaning town on you.

I'm not sure about Beeboy. He's making a lot of noise and I don't see his push on FS. But maybe I'm missing something that FS has did that makes him scummy. FS is on my ISO list.

I'm trying to sort Ami right at the moment. I didn't like her statement in 685 because it sounds like she doesn't want to scum hunt.

I have a lot of null reads because they haven't posted or what they posted didn't make a big impression on me.

p-edit: TWL, what am I missing? Ami's post struck me as weird. Why does it not bother you?

I am commenting on things as I see them. I'm really not quite sure what you are getting at with the spread out comment.

In my head I have the town separated into several groups based on who they talk with the most as well as which wagon they're on.

The people in your list aren't ones I associate with each other.

I comment on what I see and in some instances who I know.

For example, Tammy. I have played with her a few times and I feel this is her town game. Same with Spiffeh.

I have also played with SirCakez before and I scum read him for his posting and he wasn't scum. I am being cautious about sorting him because I don't want to make that mistake again. I don't have an organized way I go through the player list and comment on people.

Why do you feel some people are associated together?

Noting by way of Plotinus' compilation post that Skybird's readslist-esque posts oddly associate Spiffeh and Tammy prior to their death whereas the other positions are spread out. Probably doesn't mean anything on a large scale but if Skybird flips scum it's notable that scum probably noticed the lovers' associations early on.

I think this is pretty reachy. Listing her two top town reads together isn't unusual at all, pretty much everyone does that.

Pedit: I have seen it done both ways, where lovers know and where they don't know. But I agree it's likely the didn't know. I looked post flip and did not see any signs in their posting.

Pedit2 @ Mirhawk -- you're doing some confusing posting there. Some of the posts you are answering are about your read on me, and you're interspersing with comments on your reads on Cakez -- without saying who "he" is.

[davesaz]

Re: 3134 yeah, I figured it out but it's easier when you're one of the people being referred to.

Re: 3135 that's old news, but yeah

[davesaz]

Also Skybird is not lynchbait when wagons repeatedly refuse to form on her despite people often putting her as a "backburner" scumread. That's attention-deprived scum.

If that were the only reason her wagon won't take off, you might have a point. Some people have a town read on her.
On the flip side, I've felt the same way about the Cakez wagon.

[davesaz]

On the NKA front, I think Skybird's strong townread on Spiffeh favors her being framed by the NK rather than being on the scum team. Isn't scum 101 to kill someone other town are townreading?

[davesaz]

I'd very much like to see tictac's reads, and other's tictac reads.

[davesaz]

Also, you're right. The gradient is annoying. It's pretty, but it makes quoting you SO hard.

If you highlight some text with your mouse and press quote, it will quote only that part of the text (and get rid of the formatting, but that's fine.)

It even grabs text across quotes and spoilers. New toy!

[davesaz]

I think Mirhawk's recent line of questioning on Cakez is completely hollow.

What do ya think of my line?

Forgot Podo said this.

I'm going to admit I'm super convinced Cakez is scum and I'm pushing him more or less on everything I can.

Some of it is kind of stupid.

nonono you dont understand. Cakez is being genuine. He oozes it.

Are you trying to say he's town? Because I've seen scum appear to be very "genuine".

[davesaz]

VOTE: The Pied Piper
Lots of information, especially about previous games. Don't see an application of all that content to this game. Don't see penetrating analysis of events that might be expected.

[davesaz]

VOTE: The Pied Piper
Lots of information, especially about previous games. Don't see an application of all that content to this game. Don't see penetrating analysis of events that might be expected.

This is a terrible vote. As itlepip said, burden of proficiency. Your problem with the slot is that they haven't provided "penetrating analysis". Seriously?

Proficiency doesn't factor. The ratio of useless info is the key part.

[davesaz]

We need a L-1 on someone within the next day or so. Who's ready to consolidate?

[davesaz]

So IMO that's not a role that can be given to scum without compromising balance to the point of impossibility. The claim strengthens my town read.

So are we going to lynch town, or try to switch it to someone else?

[davesaz]

^ Same

[davesaz]

Except for the wrath part. I'm not invested in Cakez.

[davesaz]

What do you think about Ogre?

[davesaz]

Piper, don't know why you are so interested in my reads. You are scum reading me pretty hard. How much of that is because of Marquis?

At any rate these are the ones that stick out to me the most:
Davesaz is town in this game. So is Dram.

I had Amihan/Marquis as town earlier, but I'm doubting that now. After I flip town, Marquis should be lynched.

Cakez is pretty scummy too, which is why I am voting him. I'd vote Marquis but I doubt there's any getting Marquis lynched today.

p-edit: Dwlee, are you sure you aren't scum? I'd expect scum to be this sure about a read. Town, not so much.

lol

you're not new. Why are you making stupid statements?

You should trim quotes down or otherwise hilight them to identify which part you're referring to.

[davesaz]

I had Amihan/Marquis as town earlier, but I'm doubting that now. After I flip town, Marquis should be lynched.

Cakez is pretty scummy too, which is why I am voting him. I'd vote Marquis but I doubt there's any getting Marquis lynched today.

What do you think about the TPP wagon? Is Cakez wagon clearly better?

If there are insufficient votes to lynch someone else, what should town do?

[davesaz]

you were hella trying to get support with that reasoning. You are scum. Caught have committing to a soft

burn baby burn

Old school doesn't refer to a guilty result. Why would old school refer to a guilty result?

What does it refer to?

What's your current Ogre read?

[davesaz]

Ugh we are confirmed town to each other but the only person I'd like to kill in your top 3 lynch pool today is Axel.

Don't remember if I've asked this, but why were you confirmed town to each other? Also, please verify this was Ogre you're addressing.
Have you given a reason for the Mirhawk vote?

[davesaz]

I believe he thinks Piper was softing a result on him by voting without an explanation. All I meant by old-school was that he'd been a popular pick for scum most of the day Day 1 and most people has subsequently turned that around to town Day 2. You give me too much credit.

I'd be interested in your Pipers and itlepip reads.

[davesaz]

Not the composition, but the fact that it even exists.

@Podo

I don't know what to say at this point. FS is uber scummy and you seem to disagree for some reason.

"FS is town because interactions I've had make them seem town to me" isn't really good enough to convince me otherwise. This post from Axel is something.

Re-re-reading Sky in light of flip.

She didn't give a lot of strong reads. True Ogre, davesaz, Dramonic strong town. TicTac and Mirhawk were kind of null/waffling. Her only votes ever were Friendless Seniors and SirCakez.

Of those, I think the FS one was the one that had a greater chance of actually happening. I don't think Cakez ever got over even three votes.

This is the kind of discussion you should be forwarding if you want to save FS.

If anything, Axel's observation points to those two (Friendless Seniors and SirCakez) being scum. Skybird was being most careful to do things to get herself townread. She appears to have wanted to avoid getting on the wrong side of anyone who would be townread by a majority. Kingmaking Tammy (or trying to) was going to be her path to near conftown status, it certainly had me fooled. I think it's likely that her votes would be on partners for two reasons, both to avoid antagonizing town and to distance from partners.

Not saying both of them are definitely scum because of it, but I think they should stay in the pool.

[davesaz]

Well guess they did

Were you expecting Ogre to have a result?

[davesaz]

Well guess they did

Were you expecting Ogre to have a result?

Repeat question, and what's your Ogre read?

[davesaz]

Cakez, I have a pretty good idea where your tictac scumread is coming from, but they aren't scum. Axel would be a better vote.

Hmm, where do you think it's coming from?

[davesaz]

Not quite sure what to make of TPP's implied role. A bunch of PR's could be outed? If town it's great to be thinking conservatively, if scum it's a great hiding place. Really hesitant to dig any deeper though, as that kind of information is best served later in the game unless / until we can nail scum with it.

Cakez is a little bit lol regarding the crumb.

I've been pretty distracted by work and haven't been able to keep fully involved. A little surprising to have only the one relatively large wagon. I think the number of people I'm seeing as likely scum is too low, which makes me think one of the players thought of as town could be well hidden scum. But which one?

Spoiler: and...

yeah, this is not much more than an elaborate prod dodge, but I prefer to do something even if it's a little lame

[davesaz]

@MOD: there should be a Flubbernugget in there somewhere

[davesaz]

That one's a hard claim, you were discussing softs.
It's gotten to the point I'm considering using a spreadsheet.

@Ogre, Nowhere near a solution yet but there is at least one inconsistency in the info I know about.
I had overlooked the possibility of a ninja and that could make both players town where I was thinking one had to be scum.
Though I wonder what made it enter your thoughts.

[davesaz]

TPP what was your intention with that soft?

We've been saying we have

✫

*

¨

*

.

¸

reasons

¸

¸

.

✫

*

to believe that tictac is town since the start of day 2. It's just the first soft that anybody paid any attention to. I can't answer your question more fully without outing a bunch of PRs for no reason; sorry. If anybody I believed to be town were in danger of being lynched I'd explain enough to prevent that from happening but as it is all you really need to know is that I have a townread on tictac that will be explained sooner or later. Possibly sooner not until my hydra partner is less busy.

I let this go earlier, but the last 8 pages of catchup left me very confused about something.
You can't explain the

intention with the soft

without outing a bunch of PRs with no reason? Because that's what the question was.

Pedit: who is kuribo?

[davesaz]

The information we have on multiple people's PRs comes from a variety of sources.

Not gonna quote the rest of the post, but you're making a bunch of assumptions that you are reading the signs correctly. There is a big difference between thinking something is true and knowing it is true. The past couple days discussion came from a post where you placed so much emphasis on knowing that reasonable people are going to infer that it's a PR result and not the result of analysis.

[davesaz]

I just got out of a game where I lost because people won't listen to me, not happening again.

Are you upset because people don't want to lynch TPP

right now

? Or is it something else?
They're certainly not in my cleared pile. And there are definitely multiple scum, why would it matter what order we lynch them?

[davesaz]

I can't remember who was certain early on, like early day 2, that there is a sk or vig. And it's not something which is easily searchable. Anyone know who that was?

[davesaz]

I can't remember who was certain early on, like early day 2, that there is a sk or vig. And it's not something which is easily searchable. Anyone know who that was?

Spiffeh's final non-Ranger pushes were on Tictac, Axel and TWL. Very confident in scum there.
Snarky was obv a vig shot, sucks that he was town but he's gone at least, and he was Hated too.

Thanks, I wonder if there were any more? Guess I wouldn't need to search, scanning discussion of N1 deaths might do it. But work days and all...

[davesaz]

Re: 4689 are you doing this merely because you were accused of not updating your reads?

[davesaz]

Re: 4689 are you doing this merely because you were accused of not updating your reads?

so you were just navelgazing when i said, multiple times, that i would eventually get around to reading the game in full, got it

I found the timing interesting, seeing as it came right after TPP was pointing out that your reads haven't changed in the face of multiple flips.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Mirhawk
Not a townread and with less than 3 days left we're running out of time to shift if that were necessary.

[davesaz]

As far as I can tell not much has changed since I was here last.

[davesaz]

13 hours.

Who should be lynched dave?

I'll be making the biggest wagon bigger right before I go to bed, unless I'm already on the biggest one. Deadline happens before I wake up.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Friendless Seniors

[davesaz]

I agonized over claiming results, but decided not to because I wanted to try to save the ability to use another night.