New York 195: Adventure Mafia - Game over!
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- EspeciallyTheLies
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You see, that's because you are looking for it. The only way for some people to force themselves to look town when scum is to SK-hunt.In post 206, drmyshottyizsik wrote:I'm not hunting he is just acting like a 3rd party.
My read on shotty is actually based on a tell I believe I found while doing pre-game research. I found a town game and a scum game and I read ISOs of both looking for differences in tone/attitude/tendencies. If anyone is interested, I suggest you do the same and come to your own conclusions, as I would rather not taint impressions if you can figure it out yourself, plus #effort.
shotty's most recent completed scum game that i looked at
Another scum game i checked out to test my theory on the tell. it applied.
shotty's most recent completed town game.
another town game i used to test the tell; it applied. however, this game is kind of old and i wasn't able to find a more recent town game, but i believe it is a valid tell for him.
Persivul is my first town read so far, only because I feel like he'd just be a dick to me if he wasn't.
I have not actually read pages 2-7. Gonna get to that over lunch today. See yall then.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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ok. lol i dunno what to say to that. i like you every game. until you make me crazy, and then i wanna bash my skull in. how about this - i promise to alert you when i'm getting frustrated and we can put any arguments on pause for a day to discuss later when emotions are not so high.In post 211, Titus wrote:I like you this game ETL. Don't break my heart.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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only one of them is, but i work with what i got. doesn't make it any less valid, especially if it's something you aren't aware of.In post 214, drmyshottyizsik wrote:keep in mind those games were probably from 3-5 years ago.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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you got it.In post 217, Titus wrote:
Done. Codeword: Marshmallows. You say that and I will stop interacting with you. I say Dragonflies, you do the same.In post 213, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:
ok. lol i dunno what to say to that. i like you every game. until you make me crazy, and then i wanna bash my skull in. how about this - i promise to alert you when i'm getting frustrated and we can put any arguments on pause for a day to discuss later when emotions are not so high.In post 211, Titus wrote:I like you this game ETL. Don't break my heart.
@pers - i think you may be comparing the wrong things in terms of what actually differentiates his play between town/scum games. take a look at the games i linked and see what you see. i mean, it's a tell i'm satisfied with, it feels solid to me and i feel really good about my vote right now. it'd be great if others saw the same thing i did but if they don't then they don't and hopefully they notice other things instead.
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hitting my goddamn heart strings dude. don't do that.In post 221, drmyshottyizsik wrote:I was hooked on heroin and dropped off the site after 26 posts.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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i dont need you to defend, and even if i explained, it's not something you'd be able to defend because of its consistency. i'm just being selfish and wanting to keep it on hand for future games with you. in any case, i dont really have the energy or willingness to put a ton of effort into convincing people, plus i'd rather they see it for themselves instead of just take my word for it. my vote is where i want it. if people join me, great, if not, well.. whatever. i'll either get you eventually or figure you out bettr as we go along.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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noted.In post 234, MagnaofIllusion wrote:On an initial basis I have to say I disagree with your meta read on Shotty. I have two specific markers I read for in him and he’s really not showing either to this point. And it is very early.
like, would i trust his reads/observations if i felt he was town enough? probably not, but that's more a comment on my own misplaced arrogance than on his actual skill level. to be real with you, i dont know. i haven't really played in a while and i dont recognize a lot of the names on this list. the last time i played with persivul, he was scum, i caught him, he pissed me off and then i just modded games for a long while (not related to him pissing me off - i got busy with school). i think he was pretty new then? he seems different now, more mellowed out, more seasoned, and i'm sure he's learned things along the way as he's probably played more while i've been gone.What do you think of Pers as a player vis-a-vie skill level?
i've just rambled a bunch of irrelevant nonsense. but ihope it answers your question.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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attempt to discredit valid method.In post 238, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
Sp psuedo science instead of science.In post 237, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:i'm a really gut-based player. i like concrete evidence a lot, but i always begin with gut and figure out why later.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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a lot of players begin with gut and investigate why they feel the way the feel to lead them to evidence. it works for me, it's how i operate. if you really want to attack my method of scum hunting, go ahead, but it doesn't invalidate it nor will it change how i do things, nor does it actually indicate my alignment in any way whatsoever. so...Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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You are either misunderstanding or purposely misrepresenting what I said. I didn't say "prove my gut". I said find out why. That means investigating whether it is valid orIn post 241, drmyshottyizsik wrote:Looking for evidence to prove your gut is bad.not.
tbh i dont really care what you think of how i play. it doesn't make a lick of difference here, so i'm just trying to figure out what exactly is the purpose of your criticisms. because it just looks to me like you're going out of your way to discredit my methods in an attempt to prevent people from working with me.
and honestly, that's scummy as fuck.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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criticizing the way someone prefers to play isn't scum hunting. it doesn't further the game at all. it doesn't help you understand me or what i'm doing, because you're not actually attempting to understand me at all, you're just saying "that's bad and you're bad". there's a big difference between what you're doing and what someone would do if they actually were interested in why a person was doing what they are doing.
you're not worried about figuring me out. you're only worrying about making me look bad. and that's fine, but it isn't scum hunting. it's discrediting, with a purpose, and it's not town motivated in any way shape or form.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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ok. it's based on my last experience with him, which was only a few months ago, and he was aggressive as scum. you're free to ignore my read on him if you like, but yeah i'm happy to give him a gut town read, because that's how i feel, and i mentioned why so others could make their own determination about whether they agreed or not. you disagree. ok. you don't have to agree with me.In post 248, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
Well seeing this I think your flippant “Pers is scum because he would piss me off” Town read is nonsense then. You acknowledge that he seems more seasoned as a player. Which would include both his Scum and Town games. Yet you are happy giving him a snap Town read based on him not pissing you off. Which is based on the old Pers not the new. There’s a pretty wide disconnect there.In post 236, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:like, would i trust his reads/observations if i felt he was town enough? probably not, but that's more a comment on my own misplaced arrogance than on his actual skill level. to be real with you, i dont know. i haven't really played in a while and i dont recognize a lot of the names on this list. the last time i played with persivul, he was scum, i caught him, he pissed me off and then i just modded games for a long while (not related to him pissing me off - i got busy with school). i think he was pretty new then? he seems different now, more mellowed out, more seasoned, and i'm sure he's learned things along the way as he's probably played more while i've been gone.
i've just rambled a bunch of irrelevant nonsense. but ihope it answers your question.
p-edit i knew what you meantArt is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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mk. that's good.In post 253, MagnaofIllusion wrote:
To be fair it is more about reading you than agreeing or disagreeing that Pers is scum.In post 250, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:ok. it's based on my last experience with him, which was only a few months ago, and he was aggressive as scum. you're free to ignore my read on him if you like, but yeah i'm happy to give him a gut town read, because that's how i feel, and i mentioned why so others could make their own determination about whether they agreed or not. you disagree. ok. you don't have to agree with me.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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i know. i knew that when i read it. consider it more ooc. hit a soft spot for me that's allIn post 257, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
this is in no way AtE, I want to pity, it's just a fact.In post 225, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:
hitting my goddamn heart strings dude. don't do that.In post 221, drmyshottyizsik wrote:I was hooked on heroin and dropped off the site after 26 posts.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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did you cover reasoning for this between pg 4-7? i'm on pg 4. if not, could you expand a bit? i didn't come to that connection.In post 258, Titus wrote:I only see that Zakk is scum if copper is scum.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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duh titus don't you know that you can't guess at mafia, you have to only say things you know 100% to be true? shotty don't be ridiculous. we are barely scratching the surface of day 1 in a damn large game. wtf you think we all got daycops? i'd be suspicious if someone's reads were overly certain at this point in the game.In post 266, drmyshottyizsik wrote:if your reads = guesses just replace out now.
but on a srious note, titus, he's right about the copper thing - i was under the impression that he was attacking copper, not defending him?
p-edit i was going to respond in p-edit but i need to read that a couple times first. i'll come back to it. thanksArt is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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ok, so.. i guess my trouble in understanding what you're saying here is that i didn't get the impression that zakk was doing... anything.. really. but after the first sentence you kinda lost me.In post 267, Titus wrote:
I didn't.In post 265, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:
did you cover reasoning for this between pg 4-7? i'm on pg 4. if not, could you expand a bit? i didn't come to that connection.In post 258, Titus wrote:I only see that Zakk is scum if copper is scum.
Zakk coming out swinging as scum would only be to cover or hide something, it's more likely town. Swinging during RVS is high risk high reward strategy. Most of the time, it doesn't happen. Then Zakk's interaction with Copper and unvoting Ircher admits his push is RVS. If Zakk was RVSing hard to appear townie, he probably doesn't unvote Ircher but pretends to have something serious. The calculus changes a bit if Copper is scum. Then he wants to back off Ircher, let town demolish him, and hope Copper is forgotten about entirely.
actually i dont understand at all. are these hypotheticals of his possible future behavior? or an analysis of what actually happened? what i saw was zakk sheeped shotty - null - then saw a bunch of pages posted and unvoted - also null - and hasn't really been involved since. what makes you think he's only scum if copper is? like, is it a kind of "if copper flips scum, look at zakk more closely" or "if copper flips scum, THEN zakk is definitely scum" (if this, why) or is it more "zakk is a solid town read UNLESS copper flips scum", and.. what is your read on copper?
p-edit i'm actually kind of town reading magnus but i'm wary because i get the feeling he's incredibly skilled at being scum.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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I disagree that his posted scumread not resulting in immediate action at this point in time is indicative of association. I agree with the logic, just not the circumstances. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a defense though, since it wasn't really active. Your conclusion here seems to be that because he wasn't actively attacking him, he was defending him, but I don't think that's a good conclusion to come to. Like, I get your logic on this - applying the same principle as lying by omission, defense by lack of offense, but you can't apply that here. It's not like people only have one scumread at a time.In post 273, Titus wrote:
He's got "copper" as a scumread, but doesn't really attack him. His interactions are all "I'm telling you Ircher's dead" and not pressing on his opinions. Copper's a scumread, but every post seems designed to have Copper look good.In post 268, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:
duh titus don't you know that you can't guess at mafia, you have to only say things you know 100% to be true? shotty don't be ridiculous. we are barely scratching the surface of day 1 in a damn large game. wtf you think we all got daycops? i'd be suspicious if someone's reads were overly certain at this point in the game.In post 266, drmyshottyizsik wrote:if your reads = guesses just replace out now.
but on a srious note, titus, he's right about the copper thing - i was under the impression that he was attacking copper, not defending him?
p-edit i was going to respond in p-edit but i need to read that a couple times first. i'll come back to it. thanks
When I cased Copper, Shotty acted like it didn't exist.
Defenses don't have to be direct.
I don't actually have reads on either ircher or copper. I am bad at reading newbies.
p-edit: buncha posts.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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That's part of it. But also I *think* I understand why she thinks you not attacking me is scummy only because she knows how I get, but you don't so I don't know why she thinks you're avoiding it on that basis.In post 295, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
By forcing action on my part?In post 294, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:she wants to see my reaction.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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who the fuck is seth?
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well i didn't know that because the playerlist is too long.In post 310, Persivul wrote:SethYazura, one of the players in the game.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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ok so, i get the joke and all, but this should have been followed up with a real response, and i haven't gotten one, and it's an important question for me. what was the motive behind criticizing my scumhunting methods?In post 247, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
Nah I think I'll be selfish and keep my reasons to myself.In post 246, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:why don't you explain your motives here, shotty.
explain it to me.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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In post 317, projectmatt wrote:I'm going to wait to cast my vote, as I don't feel very comfortable with any of the wagons.
i didn't want you to be scum matt. but you are.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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actually i think copper and shotty may both be scum and if multiball, same team. is multiball allowed in normals? i dont even know, it's been about a year maybe since i played a normal.In post 322, Egg wrote:Copper, saying you have extreme certainty in a read is clearly expressing confidence. To be fair though, drmy is doing the same with Ircher and I doubt they are both scum so maybe it's null. But to answer your question more completely if you're still wondering, people are more likely to sheep someone who is confident than someone who isn't sure of themself. Therefore, yeah, conveying confidence is persuasive. Think back to any vote you've ever sheeped. Was the person confident? My guess is most of the time, yes. I agree that it's a heavily exaggarated statement from a statistics point of view, but it absolutely displays confidence. I'd go as far as to call it overconfidence.
And yeah, if Ircher is scum, I'd be shocked to find out Seth is his buddy after that SK accusation.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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i didn't say he was obvtown. i said he looked super newbtown. and because that's how i feel about him, especially during those silly stats posts. he was trying. i think that section is probably a great place to look for opportunistic scum.In post 326, Egg wrote:I don't see why it wouldn't be allowed. Day 1 is about lynching the scummiest player regardless though. Can you tell me why Ircher is so obvtown?Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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In post 323, cytheflyguy wrote:I got to page 11 and I got busy lol. I'll try to finish everything in a bitIn post 366, cytheflyguy wrote:I have read nothing and everything at the same time. Ircher seems most scum atm so I'll go with him for now
VOTE: Ircher
I dunno what this is. I think votes on him are lazier than these posts though.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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lmfao wtf is this...In post 412, Ircher wrote:Spoiler: NY 195 - D1 Shotty ISO May 21
Total Score: -22 points
Average Score: -1.83 (-22 / 12)
Final Score: -2.83 (Out of -6; includes bias score of -1)Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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In post 122, Titus wrote:Ircher, kindly shut the fuck up. The more your case gets talked about, the more credence it appears to have although it's total garbage RVS. You know it. I know it. If you actually did the slightest thing scummy, I'd be all over it. You just haven't.
You realize how Copper has displayedactual inconsistenciesand people are pushing awkard things you are saying because they don't like math. Get real.In post 447, Titus wrote:
How come every time I change my vote, you follow me? I don't wanna be a double voter? Stahp it.In post 429, Ircher wrote:Ok, Cythe, was gonna give benefit of the doubt, but your last posts changed my mind.
VOTE: CytheIn post 459, Titus wrote:
I'm shutting up. You're standing on your own two feet.In post 454, Ircher wrote:@Titus
So far, Ive liked your thought process plus Ive been lazy & not been doing isos.
This reeks of coaching. I take it scum don't have daytalk, eh?
VOTE: Titus
Sorry, friend. You gots ta go.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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We have a long history of ending up at each others throats and saying mean things, and we both know that and I think both of us actively try to be nicer to each other each time we play together. At least I do, I feel this way, cuz it's easier to remain in the game and not get burnt out. I wanted to let her know that right away so we have an understanding before shit hits the fan. Because it inevitably does when we play together.In post 491, Persivul wrote:On an unrelated note, I was concerned with the way ETL and Titus fell into an easy early alliance. Good to see that breaking up.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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I think she was showing a bit of anxiety at whatever he was saying because she may feel it links back to her and she sees him heading for a lynch. If they don't have daytalk, she can't coach him in the PT, she has to find a way to make him shut up in-game. She's not conspicuously "sticking her neck out" to save him, but based on her voting patterns thus far and her arguments against those voting for him, it definitely leads me to think she wants to prevent his lynch.In post 506, zakk wrote:
You honestly think ircher is scum? Totally disagreeIn post 468, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:Titus I suspect you and Ircher are both scum together, and of the two, you are the more dangerous. I'm happy to vote Ircher as well if it comes to that - he certainly seems like someone you've been trying to keep alive.
You honestly think scum Titus would stick her neck out in public like that for a newb scumbuddy instead of crucifying him and riding it for town cred? Totally disagree
Also... Titus tends to protect her buddies as long as she can without giving herself away, not bus them. I've seen it time and time again, it's an innate urge for her, as much as she tries to subvert it, I still see glimpses of it, especially early in the game when no one is particularly looking.
p-edit: Even if it wasn't meant to be included, it's especially relevant to that post.
p-edit 2 - another post.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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Why are you making the assumption that 10 days is not a normal thing for LARGE games? Assume 4-5 mafia of 21 players, so 16-17 town players. Even assuming a town lynch and a town lost each day/night, a perfect scum win only requires 6-7 game days to clear town's numbers.In post 518, Ircher wrote:which is actually fair to assume in a large cuz otherwise it will last like 10 days; there's bound to be another killing role in the game
So... it just sounds like you are talking out of your ass here.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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No.In post 530, Titus wrote:Notice how cy being a "lazy" vote is thrown around. So what? If it's scum, it dies. The lazy comment means nothing but attempts to disparage those on the wagon. It doesn't even take a stance on Cy. It's a cop out.
Cy has no content. He's a fucking null. And yet he's the biggest wagon with NULL posts????
Hello? wtf are we doing... that makes zero sense.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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Its.
Fucking.
Null.
If he flips town, it tells me fucking nothing.
If he flips scum, it tells me fucking nothing.
All it tells me, is that the people on his wagon, are a bunch of lazy motherfuckers, or scum, or both.
The cy wagon is literally the dumbest sheep bullshit I have ever seen and unless he actually gets his ass back in here and gives me a reason to give a damn about him, I'm going to continue to think that the people voting for him are, like I said, lazy as fuck or fucking scum hopping on low hanging fruit.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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HE'S GOT TWO FUCKING POSTS, TITUSIn post 537, Titus wrote:The fact you are saying you can't is highly suspect ETL
for fucks sake are you serious right now....Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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and i've argued against all of them too, because they are bullshit no content wagons that do not give any information when D1 is the most fucking important.In post 537, Titus wrote:You and I have seen a lot of sheep wagons over the years. Why is this one the rare snowflake that cannot be scumhunted?
you fucking know that so dont try and change the story in an effort to make me look scummy for pointing out how fucking dumb a no info wagon is...
why do we always have this same goddamn argument, you either never learn or you are scum because i've been right every single time.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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maybe.In post 541, Titus wrote:maybe you need to learn how to get information from them.
doesn't make my assessment "suspicious" though, which was a silly thing to say.Art is cool.- EspeciallyTheLies
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like, its my opinion. i don't feel his two posts are alignment indicative, thus making the wagon on him dumb in my eyes. the very fact of my own alignment makes your assessment incorrect, point of fact. but what i'm saying is that no just because i see the same dumbass things happen time and time again doesn't mean i suddenly understand why people do dumbass things.Art is cool. - EspeciallyTheLies
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