Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[Alexcellent]

Hi everyone!

VOTE: drmyshottyizsik

[Alexcellent]

Yeah, so if this game continues with this much content scum are going to autowin.

Someone unvote Shotty and let's get some discussion going, hmm?

@Everyone

if you had to pick one person as scum from the last two pages who would it be?

Probs Kappy.

UNVOTE: Shotty
VOTE: Kappy

Not based on much! But I kind of didn't like the vote/unvote/revote.

Aww Kap you were supposed to keep your vote there and see how he reacts

Sure! VOTE: shotty - I'm too lazy to type the whore thong.

InnocentVillager, if the pressure is required then someone else will probably will vote him. That runs the risk of someone missing the L-1 and inadvertently hammering, thinking that they are putting him at L-1. If anyone does put him at L-1, please make it very obvious.

Shotty is at L-1!!!!!!!!!!

That obvious enough?

The change of vote when shotty got to L-1 suggests maybe that Kappy wasn't comfortable with being on the wagon, but the above post makes it seem like he's putting him back at L-1 with villager and BTD6's permission.

[Alexcellent]

**Also, I would like everyone to carefully think about Kappy's post and give your thoughts, since I think this is a pretty alignment-indicative post from him. My gut strongly tells me this is from a genuine confused townie, and I'll explain why. I highly doubt Kappy would be this confused if he had thought about this from a scum point of view. If he had considered that, as scum, hammering your own would be a ridiculously pro-town, he would see that scum could do this to get towncred. But he goes headstrong for the completely opposite viewpoint, noting that it would be asinine for a townie to hammer, regardless of the flip, and therefore just use the logic "if a townie has no strategic incentive to hammer, then only scum would do it" without realizing "if scum hammered, that would be significantly WORSE for them".

Therefore, Kappy is town if we accept that he was genuinely confused, and not fabricating this post for towncred, which I believe to be highly unlikely especially at this stage of the game.

I don't think it clears him as you say, it's not as if scum can't fabricate that sort of thing. But I do follow your thinking and I'm inclined to give him some townie points for it. UNVOTE: Kappy

@Everyone

if you had to pick one person as scum from the last two pages who would it be?

One of innocentvillager/BTD6_maker. But not together

Any reason?

[Alexcellent]

Prodge, sorry for inactivity, will post tomorrow

[Alexcellent]

In post 50, innocentvillager wrote:
**Also, I would like everyone to carefully think about Kappy's post and give your thoughts, since I think this is a pretty alignment-indicative post from him. My gut strongly tells me this is from a genuine confused townie, and I'll explain why. I highly doubt Kappy would be this confused if he had thought about this from a scum point of view. If he had considered that, as scum, hammering your own would be a ridiculously pro-town, he would see that scum could do this to get towncred. But he goes headstrong for the completely opposite viewpoint, noting that it would be asinine for a townie to hammer, regardless of the flip, and therefore just use the logic "if a townie has no strategic incentive to hammer, then only scum would do it" without realizing "if scum hammered, that would be significantly WORSE for them".

Therefore, Kappy is town if we accept that he was genuinely confused, and not fabricating this post for towncred, which I believe to be highly unlikely especially at this stage of the game.


I don't think it clears him as you say, it's not as if scum can't fabricate that sort of thing. But I do follow your thinking and I'm inclined to give him some townie points for it. UNVOTE: Kappy

This post gives me a null scum vibe, I can't really explain it.

Responding to your point on scum fabricating a post like this: I honestly feel like this is way too subtle to be a scum fabricating town pov post. It's clearly not transparently a towntell especially if I'm the only one who noticed, it took me a while to notice, and most people for some reason (the reason for which I still fail to understand) don't agree with me that it's a towntell.

@Everyone I still want a reason on why my analysis of Kap being very town is correct, or incorrect.

Like I said, I followed your logic there, which is why I unvoted him. But I'm also not inclined to clear someone as town based on something they said in RVS, and I don't think you should either if you are town.

{Alpaca, Alexcellent}
{BTD6}
{KickAssAndGiggle, innocentvillager}
{Kappy, shotty}
{Music and Mail}
^Approximately where I'm at right now.
I want Music and Mail lynched.
They're like 95% scum, and lynching scum is good.
If for some ungodly reason I read them wrong and they're town, then they can still scumhunt as invincible town who cannot be nightkilled and therefore cannot be silenced.

Win-win as far as I can tell.
Ergo, we're lynching Music and Mail no matter what.

These are some pretty strong reads based on little content. Your top town reads (including me) really don't have a lot of content to get a read from. If I were someone else, I wouldn't even be town reading me at the moment. Even Music and Mail hasn't really said enough for me to get decent read on, let alone 95% confidence in a scum read.
I don't understand your scum read on Music and Mail. Can you go a bit more into detail as to why they are scum?

[Alexcellent]

I don't like 110.

I'm disappointed none of you agree really agree with my Kappy read. Oh well, I guess we all have different tells. I'm still going to stick with my gut and call him town.

Why do you want everyone to agree with you and town read Kappy so badly?

I am not sure what to think about the Ranger vs M&M. Honestly both of you look a little scummy, but Ranger more so than M&M. I would be surprised if neither of you were scum.

I don't really like this. It reads as though you're dismissing the possibility of it being TvT, therefore there has to be one that's scum, and you're leaving it open to both of them being scum. And you're not really committing to a read of one being scummier than the other.

VOTE: Ranger

Bc top scumread atm.

Now that I look at it again, M&M's later reaction posts just look like annoyed confibiasing townie omgusing on Ranger. But I'll look at this again tomorrow, since maybe I'm the one confbiasing my stance on the Ranger vs. M&M debate. More on this later.

Even here, it's like you're saying Ranger's scummier, but you're giving yourself room to backtrack if required.

[Alexcellent]

Okay, why?

Regardless of your alignment, innocentvillager is scum, that's why.
I can see innocentvillager posting that post as your scumbuddy, given areas like this:

Why is everyone sheeping Ranger?

Why tf would scum prime you after you get lynched (and therefore why should firefighter save you)? I'm confused.

Now that I look at it again, M&M's later reaction posts just look like annoyed confibiasing townie omgusing on Ranger.

I can see innocentvillager posting that post with us both as town, given areas like this:

I am not sure what to think about the Ranger vs M&M

. Honestly

both of you look a little scummy

, but Ranger more so than M&M. I

would be surprised if neither of you were scum

.

(^There's a REASON I quoted that when voting yaknow!)

I have to say that I had a very similar thought as M&M.

And, as M&M mentioned, it looks like me as scum not knowing whether something is actually townie or if it's because of hindsight bias knowing they're town .

In no world do I see

any

of it as town.

Bleh, not a fan of this. Does this mean you no longer scum read Music & Mail? You were 95% sure that M&M is scum, even got him to L-2. Why leave and start a fresh wagon on IV? What changed?

Ranger, your case is

horribly

reachy and flimsy. Not to mention that innocentvillager looks pretty obvtown to me.
If you're town here you deserve to be lynched.

-- Mail

Why is IV obvtown to you?

[Alexcellent]

Town: Alexcellent
Null-Town: Kappy; Alpaca
Null: BTD6; drmyshotty; Kickass; Music & Mail
Scum: Ranger; InnocentVillager

IV is in the scum pile largely for 110, the apparent strong need for everyone to agree with his reads and the non-committal Ranger vote. Also didn't get a good vibe from the way he was reacting to shotty.
Ranger's strangely confident reads list doesn't strike me as necessarily scummy itself - just weird. I don't know where the reads come from. But I do dislike her more recent posts and the sudden jump from M&M to IV is pretty jarring and unexpected, considering how strong her scum read was on M&M. Also, she appears to be dodging Alpaca's question (116). Gonna do this.

VOTE: Ranger

That's L-1!!

[Alexcellent]

Ranger would you care to elaborate on why you think I'm town for my RVS vote in post 28.

I could easily!
I'm choosing not to. It's a non-issue. Unless you're at risk of being lynched, it's simply not something I need to spend my time on.

So you don't really have a decent reason for avoiding the question, more that you just don't feel like answering it?

These are some pretty strong reads based on little content. Your top town reads (including me) really don't have a lot of content to get a read from.

Welcome to a Ranger game.

This is something that, frankly, I thought I wouldn't have to explain anymore aside from the occasional newbie-in-an-open. But to be as explicit as possible: I am

Ranger

. I come from a site which specializes in reading the RVS. It's what we do. I maintain this habit on here. So, yes. Your little content? Is plenty for me.

You'll probably have to explain it to anyone who isn't familiar with you. I don't believe I've played a Ranger game before.

Does this mean you no longer scum read Music & Mail?

Nope, they're still a scumread.

You were 95% sure that M&M is scum, even got him to L-2. Why leave and start a fresh wagon on IV? What changed?

Simple. Music and Mail, while almost certainly scum, does in fact have that 5% chance of being town.

Innocentvillager does not have that same leeway. 110 was a pure scum post, as

you yourself noted

.

So to clarify:
M&M = 95% chance of being scum
IV = 100% chance

So why the vote on

me

instead of

them

?

Pretty much because there were more votes on you already, and where I expect IV to probably respond to everything anyway, I disliked that you weren't answering Alpaca's question so more pressure on you seemed like the better use of my vote.

VOTE: Ranger

Uh-huh. So your theory is that innocentvillager and I decided to spontaneously cross-bus? I don't know if the scum have daytalk or not, but if they don't, without any way of having coordinating it or explaining why?

Nope. I never said that I thought you were scum together, just that you are both scum reads. I find it unlikely that you're both on the same team. Either of you bussing here wouldn't make sense.

[Alexcellent]

UNVOTE: Ranger
VOTE: InnocentVillager

[Alexcellent]

I find 134 reachy in a lot of ways and I strongly disagree with some of the things you're saying. In particular, I don't think they would lolhammer as town and I certainly wouldn't scum read them for not hammering an RVS wagon. However, I kind of don't see your analysis coming from scum.

I don't think I've played with Postie before. And I only really have experience with RC's town game, although:

If you're town here you deserve to be lynched.

And this is an attitude you would

never

take as town.

Ever.

ESPECIALLY not to me, of all people.

I feel like I

could

see that coming from town RC, so I'm not so sure that I'd buy them as scum. However I'm feeling better about you.

And yeah I forgot about Sharing is Caring. Although I think you replaced in well after I died.

[Alexcellent]

k so done here.

VOTE: Ranger

What things did you need to do?

[Alexcellent]

If you're 100% scum, would you agree to get lynched tomorrow when you're wrong about me?

Of course you would. After all, there is no chance involved in 100% scum, right?

Please lynch Ranger immediately on D2 if I happen to get lynched kthxbai

You realise if you're lynched as town, you're not actually out of the game, you just lose your vote, right? This doesn't feel like it's coming from a tree's perspective.

[Alexcellent]

So you don't really have a decent reason for avoiding the question, more that you just don't feel like answering it?

Not feeling like answering it, as far as I'm concerned, is reason enough to not answer it. I have a townread on Alpaca. Unless Alpaca's life is in danger, I don't see reason to go into detail right now, when my time is better spent, oh, you know, actually lynching scum. It's wasted effort otherwise. It takes me 30 seconds to point to posts that generate a read. It takes me 30 minutes to explain those posts.

So there is absolutely no possible short answer to this question?

[Alexcellent]

I could easily!
I'm choosing not to. It's a non-issue. Unless you're at risk of being lynched, it's simply not something I need to spend my time on.

Hmm...
Town reading someone for RVS with no reason why. Claiming there's a reason while trying not to explain in. "it's simply not something I need to spend my time on" It wouldn't take much effort to explain it. You already spent time thinking about it, now you just have to write in down. I definitely am leaning towards Ranger+Alpaca as our scum team.

Her refusal to share a reason for the read doesn't overly bother me, it's the reason why she's refusing that bugs me. I don't really accept "I don't feel like it/will take too much time" as a good reason to not cooperate on her reads. Even if it's kind of flimsy or meh reasoning, surely it's not that hard?
If Ranger is scum though, I don't think that would make Alpaca scum.

What do you think of Innocent Villager?

[Alexcellent]

Prodge, will post tomorrow morning hopefully