Open 642 - The Woodshed - Game Over

[Ranger]

Looking for an smv replacement per his request.

Guess who? >:D

[Ranger]

Now that I'm officially in the game and I know they're not my scumbuddies,
VOTE: Music an Mail.
I <3 you, but you drew scum this game.

[Ranger]

{Alpaca, Alexcellent}
{BTD6}
{KickAssAndGiggle, innocentvillager}
{Kappy, shotty}
{Music and Mail}
^Approximately where I'm at right now.
I want Music and Mail lynched.
They're like 95% scum, and lynching scum is good.
If for some ungodly reason I read them wrong and they're town, then they can still scumhunt as invincible town who cannot be nightkilled and therefore cannot be silenced.

Win-win as far as I can tell.
Ergo, we're lynching Music and Mail no matter what.

[Ranger]

Ranger always errs towards errantly townreading me rather than mistakenly scumreading me and I think my play has been very towny this game.

Yeah, no. Every time I've been wrong on my read of you, extenuating circumstances were the cause. Your play here, from

both

heads, is your scumgame.

Especially given:

The only reason I can come up with for her doing what she's doing is that she's scared of my scumhunting and wants to douse and ignite me on night 2 while having low chance of firefighter protection.

This runs contrary to all your knowledge of me. This is your scum faking-town-paranoia act to a T.

Explain your reads on Alpaca, Alexcellent, BTD, KAAG, and innocentvillager to me please.

innocentvillager and KickAssAndGiggle are ambivalent. I believe that's the appropriate word for "one moment looks like a dirty scumbag, the next looks as pure as can be". They waver, significantly, between the two, each post. Reading the same post twice will give two different impressions. Reading it ten times would give at least five or six different impressions. I can't pin them down, at all.

BTD6 started in that category, and frankly, is only barely above them. What bumped him up is that, frankly, I got a mild gut townread from 70 and 74. That's literally it though. Everything else is that same, waving, back-and-forth, can't-pin-down I have for IV and KAAG.

Alpaca instantly became a townread for 28. Of all the RVS posting, that was actually the only one I could get a definitive read on. Everyone else's was null, but Alpaca's entrance stood out as strongly town. Nothing in 63 diminished this. I did like 80 a little as well.

As for Alexcellent, I

almost

got a read on him for 4, but it lacked the 'BUSSED SO HARD' tagline that would have made it definitely town. 46 was a solid town post, as I liked the pressure on Kappy. 69 did not diminish my read, either.

...So basically, this is a rare game where my top tier is barely above null. My top tier is weak town, followed by just-barely-above-null, to null, to just-barely-below-null, to scum.

[Ranger]

I am not sure what to think about the Ranger vs M&M. Honestly both of you look a little scummy, but Ranger more so than M&M. I would be surprised if neither of you were scum.

Change of plans.

VOTE: innocentvillager.

This looks like RVS.

It clearly was. And?

[Ranger]

Okay, why?

Regardless of your alignment, innocentvillager is scum, that's why.
I can see innocentvillager posting that post as your scumbuddy, given areas like this:

Why is everyone sheeping Ranger?

Why tf would scum prime you after you get lynched (and therefore why should firefighter save you)? I'm confused.

Now that I look at it again, M&M's later reaction posts just look like annoyed confibiasing townie omgusing on Ranger.

I can see innocentvillager posting that post with us both as town, given areas like this:

I am not sure what to think about the Ranger vs M&M

. Honestly

both of you look a little scummy

, but Ranger more so than M&M. I

would be surprised if neither of you were scum

.

(^There's a REASON I quoted that when voting yaknow!)

I have to say that I had a very similar thought as M&M.

And, as M&M mentioned, it looks like me as scum not knowing whether something is actually townie or if it's because of hindsight bias knowing they're town .

In no world do I see

any

of it as town.

[Ranger]

Ranger would you care to elaborate on why you think I'm town for my RVS vote in post 28.

I could easily!
I'm choosing not to. It's a non-issue. Unless you're at risk of being lynched, it's simply not something I need to spend my time on.

Ranger, your case is horribly reachy and flimsy. Not to mention that innocentvillager looks pretty obvtown to me.

Oh really?

Explain your reads on innocentvillager to me please.

I've only played with town-you twice, but both times I could actually understand where your reads were coming from. This, on the other hand... I just... I have several issues with this readslist.

^This implies you held severe issue with innocentvillager, in the middle of my list.

If you're town here you deserve to be lynched.

And this is an attitude you would

never

take as town.

Ever.

ESPECIALLY not to me, of all people.

These are some pretty strong reads based on little content. Your top town reads (including me) really don't have a lot of content to get a read from.

Welcome to a Ranger game.

This is something that, frankly, I thought I wouldn't have to explain anymore aside from the occasional newbie-in-an-open. But to be as explicit as possible: I am

Ranger

. I come from a site which specializes in reading the RVS. It's what we do. I maintain this habit on here. So, yes. Your little content? Is plenty for me.

I don't understand your scum read on Music and Mail. Can you go a bit more into detail as to why they are scum?

Sure! Separate post though; it'll have to wait until after I've caught up.

[Ranger]

Does this mean you no longer scum read Music & Mail?

Nope, they're still a scumread.

You were 95% sure that M&M is scum, even got him to L-2. Why leave and start a fresh wagon on IV? What changed?

Simple. Music and Mail, while almost certainly scum, does in fact have that 5% chance of being town.

Innocentvillager does not have that same leeway. 110 was a pure scum post, as

you yourself noted

.

Why is IV obvtown to you?

Good question!

So why the vote on

me

instead of

them

?

VOTE: Ranger

Uh-huh. So your theory is that innocentvillager and I decided to spontaneously cross-bus? I don't know if the scum have daytalk or not, but if they don't, without any way of having coordinating it or explaining why?

[Ranger]

Just checked. I think according to the PMs on the front page scum don't have daychat, so it couldn't be coordinated, it couldn't be planned.

[Ranger]

Mod: can you update the playerlist with the replacements?

[Ranger]

intent.

^The scumread started here. The offered intent, regardless of whether serious or a joke, is not something I see a town player doing. Honestly, given the players in there, it wouldn't at all surprise me to have them lolhammer on page one as town, even. The 'why' behind it is harder to describe without an understanding of them. Basically, while it would be an anti-town action, counter-intuitively, in an RC mindset, it would actually increase their odds of being useful: if they lolhammered scum, they would be confirmed town. If they hammered town, then they would be an

incredibly

unlikely douse target for N1, effectively ensuring by proxy that they'd live to see D3 at least. What of the D2 risk in being mislynched?

This is a hydra of

RadiantCowbells

with

Postie

. Town-them holds absolutely no fear of being lynched whatsoever, because in their world, there isn't any possible way they could get lynched. Given all these factors? Absolutely, yes, I would expect them as town to hammer. Why would they not hammer as scum when much of this applies to their scum game too? Because as scum, their main goal isn't to lynch town, so much as it is to manipulate town into lynching town. A hammer on town would be lynching town, sure. But it would not be playing the long-game.

RadiantCowbells, as scum, is always, ALWAYS setting up for the long-game. A lolhammer is a shortsighted move, something he'd do as town but not as scum because town-RC is shortsighted (mostly) whereas scum-RC is a planner. So, instead of hammering, they contribute to the discussion and look town by giving intent, without actually killing shotty. (Note that this does rely a lot on shotty being town. If shotty were scum and RC were a scumbuddy, absolutely RC would lolhammer on page one, because he'd get town credit for it and it'd cut discussion short.)

26 had a fake tone to it.

Yeah, so if this game continues with this much content scum are going to autowin. Someone unvote Shotty and let's get some discussion going, hmm?
@Everyone
if you had to pick one person as scum from the last two pages who would it be?

This is actually a signature of

my

scum game, but it applies to theirs just as much: an effort to try and appear town, without actually doing anything town. This is empty.

In 72, I hated the waffle on shotty, and also the way they greeted me did not feel like a town greeting. This was the content as of my "guess who?" post, though at the time I posted that, I hadn't yet received my role PM, so I didn't know if I was replacing in as scum or not. (Obviously, if I had landed into a scum slot, I wouldn't have been able to push them because they'd, you know, be my scumbuddy.)

Since then, we've got more. Aside from what I just pointed out?

Autolynching Ranger tomorrow for this.

If Music and Mail were town, they would be raising

absolute hell

about my scumread on there. We're talking, going virtually Frozen Angel levels of ballistic.
Well, actually, small correction. If they were town and townread me, they would be ranting at me.
If they were town and scumreading me, they would be ranting at the town about me.

This was it though.
This, literally this, was basically the whole of their Ranger push.
It's fake. It's insincere.
You get 97, but it's not filled with passion. It has no energy. It's flat, dull even.
103 is also more of the same. It's just further elaborating, but at the same time, not. It's not making a big display of it. Me scumreading RC is a

very big deal

.
To me, RC is just another player. I don't treat him any differently than I would anyone else. But this is not mutual. RC holds me in a whole different league, so he should be angry. He should be emotional. He should be saying how sad he is that I've gone downhill like this, he should be trying to work with me, or if he seriously thinks I replaced in as scum and for some UNGODLY reason went all-out on him (which...runs contrary to literally every piece of my scum meta, ever), he would not rest until I was dead.

Yet he's complacent here.
He's docile.
And that is not a town-Radiant.

And as a last point? (All the posts I've skipped are already featured in my iso; read them.)

UNVOTE: That's NOT L-1! RC wants to do things.

This is RC setting up the long game. He knows that if I get lynched now, I'm flipping town. I become a tree stump, and I

hard

push. Others may listen. That's a danger for him. So what does he need to do? He needs to earn town credit. He needs to do something that will make people think he's town. If it makes me think he's town, mission accomplished. But it works even if I still scumread him (I do), so long as others buy into what he's trying to sell here, that he's waiting.

But a town-RC? If he legitimately thought I was scum,

he would never let go

. He wouldn't unvote, not even for a moment. He might ask for someone else to unvote, sure, yeah, but his vote would remain, because he wouldn't be willing to unvote me.

That's why I'm 95% sure Music and Mail is scum.

[Ranger]

So you don't really have a decent reason for avoiding the question, more that you just don't feel like answering it?

Not feeling like answering it, as far as I'm concerned, is reason enough to not answer it. I have a townread on Alpaca. Unless Alpaca's life is in danger, I don't see reason to go into detail right now, when my time is better spent, oh, you know, actually lynching scum. It's wasted effort otherwise. It takes me 30 seconds to point to posts that generate a read. It takes me 30 minutes to explain those posts.

I don't believe I've played a Ranger game before.

Open 634.

So to clarify: M&M = 95% chance of being scum
IV = 100% chance

There's no chance involved in 100%, but otherwise, yes.

[Ranger]

If you're 100% scum, would you agree to get lynched tomorrow when you're wrong about me?

I'd expect nothing less!

You realise if you're lynched as town, you're not actually out of the game, you just lose your vote, right? This doesn't feel like it's coming from a tree's perspective.

Precisely.

[Ranger]

So there is absolutely no possible short answer to this question?

Never said that. I'm just not in the mood to give blunt answers. Sometimes I will, sometimes I won't. Right now, I won't. Maybe later, I'll feel different and will. But for the time being, deal with it.

Claiming there's a reason while trying not to explain in.

I don't do try. I do, or I do not. I flat-out explicitly am choosing not to explain the townread.

[Ranger]

I don't really accept "I don't feel like it/will take too much time" as a good reason to not cooperate on her reads.

Well, tough.

Even if it's kind of flimsy or meh reasoning, surely it's not that hard?

Of course it's not that hard. I can explain any read on the drop of a hat to at least an adequate level most of the time. In fact, explaining the Alpaca townread would be ridiculously easy.

But when I say I don't feel like explaining.

I mean I don't feel like explaining, and no amount of pushing me to explain will change my mood.

Well? Ranger?

How about...no.

I will explain my townread on Alpaca when either I feel like it, or when Alpaca's life is in danger.
I also happen to be a tree, so stumping me means that I can do this at

literally any time

. (Well, except the night, obv.)
Neither condition is true. And until one condition is true, I will continue to not give any. Either lynch me, try lynching Alpaca, or drop it. I'll explain when I see reason to. The threat of being lynched, when

I can continue to talk after being lynched

, is not reason to. L-2, L-1, lynch, twilight, doesn't matter to me. There's no pressure on me that is actually meaningful.

If you want me to detail a scumread, go ahead and ask me! I'm in the mood to explain

those

, albeit only on prompts like the one Alexcellent gave.
But I have no desire at this moment to explain either of my stronger townreads at the time. (Speaking of which, I'm about to post a new readslist.)

[Ranger]

both claimed that the other is strongly aligning with their scum meta.

Wrong. They haven't, because they know this isn't my scumgame. If they tried, they would fail.

I

have. I can back it up, because they

are

playing to their scum meta.

I also didn't like the fast wagon on Ranger, all of the reason which were basically the same thing.

And what was the wagon prior to the Ranger wagon?

Music and Mail - (3) Ranger, BTD6_maker, KickAssAndGiggle

Gee, I wonder!

Question: have you ever seen scum-me getting snarky/aggressive when interacting with the people scumreading me or even while just making a push on someone?

One, I fail to see how that was relevant to my point, but two, while lack of a very specific pattern from prior scum games which is present in town games may be a valid reason for most players, for your hydra...it most

certainly

is not. Not only because of being a hydra itself, but also because of who you are as players. It's literally saying, "Find this behavior, dare you to, because here is where I have showed it as town". An argument you thrive in.

!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

As previously established:

RadiantCowbells

. The guy who prides himself in basically never getting mislynched, except in cases of extreme town stupidity, he'll insist. (This claim, regardless of its truth, is what he BELIEVES is true, so for the purposes of my statement that RC would never fear getting mislynched as town, it holds true.) And Postie, a player

known for making herself obvtown

. (Speaking of obvtown, RC does it too.)

There should be no fear whatsoever of being lynched, especially not in THIS game of all games. Heck, for that matter, given a town-shotty could continue talking even after being lynched, there should be no fear whatsoever of lynching town.

Of course it did because it wasn't a serious post!

Funny, it looks serious enough to me. (But I don't see this line of argument going anywhere other than "It was!" "It wasn't!" in a no-u cycle, so I'll drop the point.)

The context (I hope) you're missing: RC has had a string of terrible FoSes on him recently.

Oh? Care to show them? I didn't see any.

Why do you refuse to explain? What do you gain from it?

Well at first, there was potential information to be gained from holding back, as per the norm. But now? Mostly, nothing at all. I just don't feel like explaining that read right now.

[Ranger]

So Ranger do you think that Ploben is scum based on his IC claim or is it something else?

Wrong game, fella.

[Ranger]

I've read this over like 5 times now I still can't understand what you're saying so I'll just rephrase my previous point: you're using something that's basically a towntell for me to scumread me.

And my point remains unchanged: you said that if I'm town, I deserve to be lynched.
I said that was not an attitude you would take as town to me, EVER.
You then ask me a question which is entirely unrelated.
But bluntly, your statement it's a towntell means nothing to me.

He prides himself on never being mislynched as scum!

You can't mislynch scum.
While it's true, RC holds pride of never getting lynched as scum, I meant what I said: RC still holds that pride of basically never being

mis

lynched, and every time he does (extremely rare as it may be), he blames a horrible town for it.

[citation needed - Postie makes herself obvtown]

From RC himself if I recall correctly. I got this information from a game's scum thread in which Postie was town. Only so many games that could have been.

[citation needed - RC makes himself obvtown]

Basically every single towngame of his I've played in, ever. The closest you get to exceptions are Space Invaders (where his obvtowning kicked in late for me, but still kicked in) and Assassins Creed (where he flat-out wasn't even playing for most of the game, but once he actually engaged me it became clearer).

[Ranger]

@Ranger why aren't you doing more to get me lynched?

Well bluntly.
You I don't need to put much effort into lynching. There's backing from others, who agree. The proof? Nobody's asked me to make a case on you. Had they, I would have followed through.

Music and Mail, who consists of a player who

never gets lynched as scum

, on the other hand...

[Ranger]

Oh, forgot to do this earlier.
{Alexcellent, Alpaca, shotty}
{BTD6, KickAssAndGiggle}
{Kappy}
{Music and Mail}
{innocentvillager}

[Ranger]

So what do you claim?

I am going to go ahead and claim ha u scumfuck rolefisher, cause obviously playing as claimed is easier for town to win. With that I am going to start this game and: VOTE: innocentvillager
He just rubs me the wrong way.

^So basically, he claimed scum.

[Ranger]

Ranger's early peg on me as scum was enough to fuck us over fast. How do you do it Ranger?

Well I told you.

Early-game content is my specialty.

I'll try and figure out your partner tomorrow, since there's no N1 possibility of death.

[Ranger]

But, I have to be completely honest here.

I lied.

I wasn't 100% sure you were scum at all.

I was actually less sure about you than I was on Music and Mail! Especially with your later posting.

I was kinda afraid I'd be getting lynched tomorrow, and then we'd be in D3 with no assured scum leads, my credibility shot, and nothing to go on.

[Ranger]

By the way: I suggest treating every night as like a normal game, as if we had one player die.
This is for the worst-case scenario, in case all scum douses are successful.

So while we have 8 alive, treat today as if we have 7. And after the lynch today, 6. Unless scum ignite, treat tomorrow as having 5, and so on.

I'm willing to fulfill my promise today even if I was lying about my confidence if there's doubt about my alignment, but my thoughts are:
I really don't think shotty is scum. The logic he gave while doped up doesn't seem like something I'd expect him to post as scum. It felt a lot more like crazy town.
Alexcellent and Alpaca remain townreads.
BTD6 and Sickofit are both nullreads still.
I still hold suspicion on both Kappy and Music & Mail, but I'm not voting anyone yet until I have a much better grip on the game, sorry.

[Ranger]

Ranger what do you think of BTD's responses after I scumclaimed?

A top priority in a reread. I couldn't get much out of them the first time, but I recognize the need to.

Ranger, when you promised to get lynched was that some sort of gambit?

No, when I make a promise, I uphold it. In this game, I wouldn't mind getting lynched, because I wouldn't really be out of the game. I explicitly made the offer. It still stands.

Thinking about this, why didn't you say so before we stumped IV?

Because I was trying to lynch innocentvillager. I thought innocentvillager was scum. This opinion started very strong. innocentvillager's later posting made me doubt my read, but not enough where I was willing to vocalize that doubt. When BTD6 dropped his surprise hammer, I was still unsure. In fact, until innocentvillager said, "partner, douse who we said in post 3", I thought that innocentvillager might be town trolling for reactions. But when he said that, along with what sounded like absolute sincerity in saying we had lynched scum, I put my doubts to rest, and decided to disclose that, actually, yes, I did doubt the read but oh well we lynched scum anyway.

Or so I thought.

[Ranger]

Rereading the interactions: shotty definitely comes out looking town.
BTD6 I think is town, but I'm not absolutely sure.

I get some mixed signals from Kappy, but overall, I actually think he may have believed it as well. Of the three, this is the weakest, so a preliminary readslist would be something like:
{shotty}
{BTD6, Alexcellent, Alpaca}
{Kappy}
{Sickofit}
{Music & Mail}

Sick's not a scumread except by weak-POE; he'd otherwise be at null. Still think this is Music & Mail as scum though.

[Ranger]

Put your money where your mouth is then. Self-vote.

What, for the town cred?

Sorry, no.

I'll self-vote. It'll happen today, especially since I have literally no defenders; every single player is suspicious of me and that means I make a good lynch.
It does not need to happen instantly.

[Ranger]

For the record, this is symbolic.
VOTE: Music and Mail.
I also wasn't fond of Kappy's 289.
But if another vote is places on M&M, I'm unvoting.
I want the vote there as a method of official record, in the VC history.

[Ranger]

For those who doubted my Alexcellent townread, I can only say...

...I told you so. :P

That slot's town.

[Ranger]

Why?

You see quoting things and not saying much.
I see quoting things and giving extensive thoughts on everything, vocalizing many ideas.

[Ranger]

VOTE: beeboy
just claimed scum

Quite possibly.

UNVOTE: Music & Mail

I need a rethink on my rethink which was itself a rethink.

[Ranger]

Ranger are you done reevaluating the game yet?

Didn't even start.
I've been dealing with exhaustion the last while. Suspected culprit is zinc deficiency, causing among other problems sleep deprivation and trouble focusing. (Beyond the norm.)
We've got a while before deadline, which I'll be using to reread.

[Ranger]

Let's see some action from you!

I think at this point.
VOTE: Ranger.
This is the most pro-town action you can get from me.

[Ranger]

Ranger can we just lynch M&M?

We can.
But I'm deathly afraid of the potential gamestate of if I'm wrong on them being scum.

[Ranger]

MOD: V/LA for today, maybe tomorrow.

Don't have the time to post today, probably will have the time tomorrow but may not, circumstances depending.

[Ranger]

yay everyone self vote for /in-stant town cred

I already explained my reasons.
One, almost everyone is suspicious of me.
Two, I can continue to talk after I'm lynched.
Three, I'm having difficulty getting good reads this game.
Four, I promised I would to innocentvillager yesterday.

So I'll move my vote if I can actually get something productive done. Strong feelings, rather than weak or paranoid ones.

[Ranger]

I'll let Ranger speak to her actions

Okay.
Bluntly.
I think you're scum because I don't think a town-you is this off-base about a case on a player. Which in this case happens to be me. You're writing a narrative that when examined falls apart, which is in contrast to the mhsmith I know as town that will look at problems from multiple angles. In short, you're construing a specific scenario that uses contrived jumps, whereas a town you is asking a bunch of questions, is prodding a bunch of people, is looking at many perspectives, and tries to come up with all solutions and figure out which ones are the most likely.

But to give the specifics of what I was talking about...

Literally she was voting IV based on explicitly falsely stated reasons (the "100% sure" bit). So basically, rather than make any true effort to lynch her "greater" read (M&M) on day one, or try and force a "lynch that slot or lynch me" debate, she "settled" for IV, while explicitly maintaining at the time that IV was the greater read.

This bit in particular. I explained my read there already, yet he's acting like I haven't. I was scumreading innocentvillager for 110. This scumread became strong, to the point where I thought regardless of whether Music and Mail was scum or not, innocentvillager would be scum, and therefore, the better lynch. Thus, my statement of 100% was, at the time, not a lie. However, later in the day, innocentvillager's posting improved. I didn't want to admit it. I didn't want to back down, because I knew it was me second-guessing myself, and as much as I'd hate to mislynch a player, I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more. In short: pride mixed with stubbornness meant I refused to back down, even though my read had weakened.

Then, we actually got the lynch. innocentvillager claimed scum. I still wasn't absolutely sure that innocentvillager wasn't simply trolling. But ultimately, thanks largely to the comment directed to partner, referencing a specific post in a PT, I thought innocentvillager was, truthfully, claiming scum. So, relieved, I admitted the truth, above, which I posted in 217: I was lying, because innocentvillager's later posting made me doubt the read, yet I was still pretending it was absolute. So when innocentvillager told me he was scum, it was a relief; I thought, "I was actually right!", and all was good.

Until innocentvillager actually flipped town.

Which is a segue into the next part:

Ranger was afraid of getting lynched D2, and yet she's currently voting herself.

This is ignoring the reasons why. It's not just 471. There's doubt in my reads. See also my iso for D2: my reads have been getting

less and less

sure, rather than more and more. There's lots of scumreads on me. I said as much in 288. I also said as much in 280. The offer was made in 261, and is of course based on 147.

That's plenty reason to self-vote. Especially since I won't actually die.

VOTE: mhsmith0.

[Ranger]

No townie WANTS to get lynched.

This is true.
It is also not relevant.

[Ranger]

I'd lynch smith or M&M over Ranger in a heartbeat.

You know I like your reads.
But the way you're playing is keeping you from being a townread.

PS Compare and contrast what you're seeing from me this game to what you say from me as wolf. I won't belabor my garbage showing in the billionaire game, but even the newbie game we played together, do you really think that I look similar to that?

Frankly. To be blunt.
I died in our newbie game N1.
I didn't get to see much of your play there. I'll probably be reading your play that game as part of my duties as an IC (so, tomorrow), meaning you'll get the superficial analysis you're asking for then.

But what I have seen, and can say right now, is your play as town.
And this?

This isn't it.
At all.

This is not a town mhsmith.

[Ranger]

{shotty, Alpaca}
{BTD6}
{Kappy, Touka}
{Music and Mail}
{mhsmith0}
Alpaca at this point is purely gut. shotty's more for his D1 antics. BTD6 is leaning town for much the same, with a side of gut. Kappy's also similar. Touka would be higher if I was seeing the play I was actually expecting from beeboy. I'm seeing elements, and I like his reads, but I'm not at the point where I'd risk the game on him being town.
Music and Mail is basically a scumread purely on "when in doubt, trust your earlier reads" philosophy, and they were a strong early scumread so I literally have no better ideas.
mhsmith, as mentioned, is playing a...very much not-town game. This couldn't be further from his town self. This is best exemplified by this game, which is what I'd have expected from him as a town replacement, yet did not see here.

[Ranger]

You die if you get lynched.

In a normal game, yes.
But this mechanic is basically a nerfed version of the shortnight/longnight mechanic.
In that I don't actually die.
I can still contribute.

And from my wagon, scumhunt.

If you're town, eating a lynch just because you're not feeling confident in your reads or so the town can "move on" or whatever is TERRIBLE play.

Why?

Again.

In a normal game, sure, that goes without saying.

But in this game. When you live on after being lynched. Why is it terrible play to get lynched? Just because it's not a lynch on scum? Sure, that makes it not the ideal play. Ideal play is always lynching scum. But the mechanic exists for good reason. Getting lynched is a viable play. Not optimal, but viable.

that's basically OMGUS logic, dressed up a bit.

A scum player would say this, yes.
But a town player should be able to recognize that there's a difference between calling a player a scum for voting them (omgus) and calling a player scum for the way they voted. I did the latter. You're not scum because you're voting me. It could be any player you voted and I'd say the same thing. You're scum because you're not playing to anything even remotely resembling your towngame.

Sure. And right now the most likely answer is that you're mafia pulling a ploy.

No, I mean the mhsmith that is town I know will post all angles, IN THREAD, on all players. All of them. And with a very low level of confidence, weakly select the ones he thinks are more likely to be true.

This blind push of near-absolute certainty from you? Absolutely not characteristic of your towngame.

wrt IV, the ESSENTIAL problem is that you yourself stated that you had a stronger read on M&M. So why not try and build the wagon there?

You keep on pushing this point, yet this continues to ignore what I already said. innocentvillager was a stronger scumread originally. Ergo, I pushed innocentvillager. When this stopped being true, I knew I was second-guessing myself, and through a combination of pride and stubbornness, refused to back down off of that paranoia.

"I hate scumreading a player and then backing down from it even more"

I misspoke; that sentence is incomplete. It was meant to say that I hate scumreading a player

correctly

and then backing down from it. This is obvious enough. When you're right about a read, but then through paranoia, doubt it enough to reverse it, how do YOU feel? Universally, the answer is "very bad". That's what I was referring to. As much as I hate being wrong, being

right

and then reversing my read to be wrong is much, much worse.

And now that you're in a position where you're in actual danger of that "offer" getting cashed anyway, you're pushing elsewhere.

I don't see myself escaping the lynch. I do, however, intend to push you.

And if Music and Mail calls me terrible to be ignored after I flip, they're confirmed scum for it, especially since it's not them that I'm pushing. It's you.

I don't care if I live or die. I expect to die. I'd definitely die if a townread was in any danger of being lynched. But given the choice between contributing to my own lynch, or making a statement about my strong scumread...I'm going to go for the latter.

Want to guess at what I hated about 134?

Nope! I'm looking forward to whatever reason you pose for hating it, and if you intend to lynch me, you WILL post it before I get lynched, because you're going to be held accountable for it and if you don't I swear to god I'll spam the thread until you are lynched.

PS Alpaca's your #2 team read on gut alone?

Tied for number one (tiers are equal), but otherwise, correct.

Your read on Ranger feels opportunistic and your push on Alpacas reads as meh.
Also your slots past players probably all replaced out for a reason and the original owner of your slot made some pretty bad votes.
You are also defending M&M for what appears to be no reason.

This is all true.

You must be insanely confident in a smith/M&M mafia team then, since you're also in his top three.

I have no right to use the term insanely confident to describe my reads given D1.

Still, for lack of a better term: insanely confident on you, yes. Confident on M&M, no. They're a scumread, but it's mostly because "I don't have any better ideas and I'm reviewing my past read and thinking it might hold merit". Still, that Touka sees the two players on the bottom of my reads as scum, when I see them as scum, is a promising sign especially knowing it's beeboy behind the wheel.

I don't think "easy target" really describes ranger particularly well.

To the contrary.

I have almost as many mislynches in my game history as I do nightkills.

And here's ranger taking that crappy read and considering a sheep of it.

No, that was because Touka was revealed to be beeboy.
I hold beeboy to basically the same standard I hold RadiantCowbells: the absolute top tier of scumhunters, the players I easily synch with when we share alignments, the players who I see as competent, and while never perfect, strong players with strong pushes.

And the beeboy of this game, as Touka, was playing in a really strange manner. Touka's play, as a person, looked town. Touka's play, knowing it was beeboy, looked strange.

[Ranger]

Explain how any of these reasons make your self-vote pro-town.

They are, quite literally, self-explanatory.

You said something about this being a "viable" but not "optimal" play somewhere - do you want to explain why you're choosing to go for "viable" over "optimal"?

Because, at the time, I didn't have any optimal play.

Optimal play requires a good scumread to vote.
I had none.

So in lieu of optimal...I went viable.
I now have an optimal play. Thus, the change.

[Ranger]

Can you walk through how m&m went from 95% wolf to just a symbolic vote that's explicitly stated as a "I don't want anyone to follow me here" sort of thing?

Simple. Touka came in and was revealed as beeboy, and the Touka-MM fight was not scum-scum yet I was doubting Touka.

[Ranger]

Well I guess we will have to see what everyone else has to say in twilight. Why did you think I was mafia again?

^Not a town reaction to thinking he was hammered.

For the record, I happen to know mhsmith is vulnerable to believing this sort of thing, but he did basically nothing after the "hammer".

No attempt at final reads.
No attempt at scumhunting.
No "I was town".
No gambit of "I was scum" like innocentvillager.
Just something weak, like this.

[Ranger]

There are many things in the mhsmith wall I could respond to, but he's baiting me to fight him.
If someone asks outside of {mhsmith, Music and Mail}, I'll respond, otherwise, no, not entering a wall war.

[Ranger]

That's not the reaction of anyone of EITHER alignment who actually thought he was hammered.

New point, then.
You were aware you weren't being hammered.

I know, for a 100% fact, you are susceptible to believing fake-hammers.

So why weren't you also fooled this time?

[Ranger]

What in particular about touka-mm convinced you it couldn't reasonably be w/w theater?

The idea of Touka bussing Music and Mail is absolutely laughable knowing Touka is beeboy.

Player history factors a lot into the reads.

[Ranger]

You mean it's laughable that they'd get to the point of an actual lynch

It's laughable Touka would even cast a serious vote, because beeboy knows RadiantCowbells never gets lynched as scum, and certainly wouldn't suddenly decide to make it his mission to be among the few who could say "I bussed RC hard enough that he got lynched!".

[Ranger]

Is that something she'd do in this situation?

Yes, it is.

[Ranger]

Tired, don't have much to say, not that I would anyway.

[Ranger]

You'd stated pretty explicitly early on that there were tangible reasons for it, and you were simply choosing not to explain it. Now it's "purely gut". What changed? Did something cause those earlier reasons to disappear?

Time.
Same thing which caused me to back away from the Music and Mail scumread.

[Ranger]

Can you talk about your BTD6 town read?

Already did. I don't feel he's scum (gut), and his end of D1 antics suggest town. It is not, however, something I'd bet the game on.

[Ranger]

Beyond the EOD1 antics, do you think they've been game-solving in any meaningful way? I find it odd how devoid of menaingful content their ISO is, especially given their bandwagoning.

It's hard to say for me.

I should have the meta experience to read BTD6, yeah, in theory, but in practice it's proving a lot more difficult.

What I CAN say is that I hate the wagon on BTD6 though.

[Ranger]

Ok so what about it do you hate?

It just feels like a bad wagon.

[Ranger]

I still think mhsmith is scum, most likely with Musicslot thanks to waiting on the replacements so much.

[Ranger]

Mod: V/LA for today, and all Wednesdays in July.

Means no posting from me until tomorrow.

Noted

[Ranger]

Can you show me where this fear manifested before this game?

It might exist, but no, can't say I can.

[Ranger]

Mod: feeling a bit under the weather

(didn't post yesterday because of it),

so V/LA today, maybe tomorrow

, depending on how long it takes to recover.

Sorry.

Noted

[Ranger]

I dont know the first thing about ranger

Liar. You have the confidence of an alt who has played with me before. I don't really care who you are, you're not RC, but you ARE someone who has played with me in some prior game.

And for the record, to be blunt.
Normal games I'm a good scumhunter in.

This game's going in my wiki as one of my worst games ever, period, end of discussion. Even if it turns out that {you, mhsmith} are the scum, the VAST inconsistency and lack of strength behind my push would render any and all credit I'd deserve for those callouts moot. And obviously, if you're not scum (I just don't know anymore), then I don't know who the second would be. I think mhsmith is scum. But that's all I have.

[Ranger]

1) what are your thoughts on the btd wagon?

You asked this before.

My answer hasn't changed.

Why should we believe that you're having a strangely off town game instead of just a poor scum game?

I don't recall asking anyone to. It's the truth, but I'm not going to shove it down people's throats.

So at this point what DO you think you know, and why?

I don't think BTD is scum.
I don't think shotty's slot is scum.
I think your slot is scum.

That's about it.

[Ranger]

This game is cursed.

[Ranger]

My body sucks.

Mod: V/LA yesterday, today, and tomorrow to recover.

I hate feeling this sick every couple of weeks or so, but I can't magically wave a wand and make the sickness go away.

[Ranger]

I'm sorry.
I'm too tired to focus properly, and I DO need to get sleep.
So this game will have to wait until tomorrow.

[Ranger]

I'm taking a break from mafia.
Swear to god, if ONE little time of things going wrong causes me to be unable to keep up with my games

this badly

, this consistently, I'm clearly in no shape to play.

This game has less than one page of posts.
So I can quickly answer mhsmith.
There was another game I self-voted: shortnight.
It had the same mechanic. I actually self-hammered there. And that game, I took the correct shot. It's just that for the second scum, I was wrong and unable to influence the game anyway even if I hadn't been wrong.

[Ranger]

Hi guys
Who is scum

Well to be frank.
If we knew that, we wouldn't exactly have needed you in the game in the first place.
I've tried. I can't get a solid grip. The closest I've got is mhsmith, and even that's just a guess.

[Ranger]

@ranger:when is the last time you've been this openly unsure and without decent guesses in a town game?

Almost all of them. Most obviously, Anything Upick. It didn't last too terribly long, but post-Magna lynch, you could see it in DC Dual Universe UPick as well. While I died N1, in Newbie 1714, rather than continuing to be engaged in the game after my death, I...well, you know. Wasn't.
I mean, that's all the completed games within the last couple of months where it's happened, but that's also all of my completed town games, save for two: the mod-abandoned diffusion of power, and greatest idea. (The rest of my recently-completed games are all scumgames.) Even in Greatest Idea, where I nailed the scum, my engagement wasn't the highest.

I meant what I said. I need to take a break from mafia to recuperate my energy.

I own Ranger's soul so if she is mafia here too I fully expect her to shut down in fear

Yeah about that.

[Ranger]

Yes but at least you get to enjoy round two of "Is BTD6 mislynch bait or wolf", always a super fun game to play

Speaking of which, that would be the reason why I don't think he's scum here.

I had the benefit of knowing he was town in that game, while he was simultaneously in both that game and this game.
Basically my reads at this point can be summed up as:
I don't think DrippingGoofball is scum.
I lean against BTD6_maker being scum.
Titus is the next-highest, at ambivalence.
The rest of the playerlist is equally muddy and blurry to me, below the null line.

That's it.

my point is that Ranger appears to have that TMI problem that's wolf indicative

Guess what I have, or had, since I'm unable to keep doing it in my current condition, a reputation for doing?

I need a break to recover my strength, but there's a reason I got nominated for best town scumhunter: seeing information is just something I normally

do

.

was pretty rich coming right in the middle of 644 and my game-long over-confident tunnel on ploben.

Guess what game I was referring to?
You were not focusing on just ploben.

You were focusing on all the players and all the angles there, too.

I didn't, 100%, know you were town there. And your play was not a carbon copy of JK9++, so I wasn't absolutely sure. But at the time I made that comment, I was firmly convinced you were town (that comment came during D2 in stack the deck if I recall correctly, where I had absolutely zero thoughts about you being a traitor), and was more referring to you THERE than in JK9++.

So, I stand by my statement.
This version of you is not like Stack The Deck.
This version of you is not like JK9++.

My gut says it's becuase she has no idea where she can productively push a mislynch (and/or doesn't want to blatantly over-push another "100%" mislynch wagon)

Yeah, this is BS.
You'd have a better argument that I am scum,

faking

not having confidence, because it was "destroyed".
That is plausible. Don't think I've ever done it before, but it certainly sounds like something I would do.

But because I legitimately wouldn't know where to push?

No.

[Ranger]

@ranger: you were pinged really hard by iv's "ranger or m&m I'd likely scum". Why does btd6's even lazier reprisal of this (and this is the like third time they've done it too) draw no interest or comment from you?

Well for a start: IV flipped town.

[Ranger]

Btd, if you were anything other than consistent mislynch bait I'd be all over you for that vote. As it is... I dunno. I still hate it.

Hypocrisy, thy name is mhsmith.

You're attacking BTD6_maker for something that you, ironically, by virtue of the attack, are yourself doing: literally every point you make in there applies to your stance on me compared to your stance on BTD6.

Honestly, I'm not real sure why Ranger hasn't already been lynched.

Well don't blame me, I tried to help. Still didn't go through.

[Ranger]

UNVOTE:

Do you know what this is?
This is, quite frankly, the most blatant sucking up in the history of scum sucking up.

mhsmith has been going on long spews about why I am scum, bringing up many, many various points for why I am scum. He has had no problem with the wagon. He has had no problem with a player like Xkfyu placing me at L-1. He has had no problem with Titus giving intent to hammer. He has held no problem with anything in it.

But the MOMENT, absolute MOMENT, we get PantherPunt's 1006, he immediately unvotes, as if everything else didn't matter. No "I think that might be wrong", no attempt to convince PantherPunt, no reason for backing off.
It's, blatantly, appeasement.

[Ranger]

Speaking of that post, though...

I don't think Ranger is scum here for a very simple reason. She's not pushing an agenda.

I hate you.
Like, seriously hate you.
The moment I saw you come in, I was like, "Why couldn't he have replaced DGB? Then I wouldn't need to sort him!"
But you didn't. You replaced Kappy's slot. So I do. And I've got the mixed emotions going, like, the one moment, thinking this is you as town being able to detect the difference between my town game and my scum game, which I want to believe because I definitely want to think you are a competent town player and it wasn't just a fluke, but the next moment, I keep thinking out of fear that you're scum about to SERIOUSLY burn me and that it'll sting even more because I

didn't

read you as scum when I should have, but then I think about what you could have done as scum (just push me) and I keep thinking that's more likely, that it would be stupidly easy for you to do as scum and the result is just an overall, "AHG, FINE, IF YOU'RE SCUM YOU WIN OKAY" which I hate telling players but I have to say all the same.

Or in short:
I hate you. :P

Ranger now would be a good time to explain your sketchy town read on me from the beggining because I am still wondering on it and it might help a little

I'm pretty sure I did this a long time ago. I'm almost positive the reason for it was strong gut. If there was a reason, I lost it. I just really didn't think your RVS was scum; it looked like a natural town RVS, and I was reading it and Alexcellent's in the same manner.

Since then, I have to admit that's weakened. In part because of Stack The Deck, actually: there, you were disengaged town, and replaced out. I couldn't help but have the thought: why was Alpaca disengaged town in

that

game (which was rather engaging), but didn't replace out of

this

game, which...well, I think you can check the number of replacements and game length to figure out why THIS game feels like the game you

should

have replaced out of. Yet you didn't. So the initial townread is gone, replaced by the paranoia that you stayed in this game because you were scum in the know. But that's a horrible reason, and one I also know isn't absolute. Kuroi, also from Stack The Deck, replaced out of it, yet in a similarly-disengaging game (Something_Smart's UPick), he didn't replace out...and was town there, so it's definitely not a hard-scumread and is literally the only possible doubt I have on you; there's nothing suspicious about your play otherwise.

[Ranger]

To clarify, did you actually WANT to get lynched?

No, but I wasn't opposed to the idea.
Still not, though I have regained

some

fire in me.
I probably won't self-vote, since if a wagon goes through on me, it'd be better to have that info, though since the normal "making a statement with my vote on you" doesn't apply (I can continue to make statements even after losing it), that's not as strong as it would be normally. I'll do it if I feel the need to.

Of course being lynched wouldn't be ideal, but it'd be acceptable.
And I'm pretty sure we've had this argument before, so I don't see how having it again will change the answer.

[Ranger]

If so can you explain why you had shotty as a stronger town read than kappy?

It basically comes down to: I have held reason to think everyone is scum in the game at least at some point.
...Except shotty, who was null, to nulltown.

Which, in this cursed game, makes his slot my strongest townread!

I love doing this where I finish one game and then sub into another with some of the same players because it's where I'm at my best on reading them.

Speaking of which, I can tell you I just modded a game with BTD6 as scum. It's officially over now, so you can read it.
It's hard to say for certain, but I don't think this is the same him.

[Ranger]

VOTE: mhsmith.

[Ranger]

Of course, this looks scummy even if Ranger is Town but it's even scummier if Ranger is scum.

You know.
We literally

just

discussed this in Stack The Deck.

"Player X looks like scum because of this interaction with player Y, who is scum either way, vote player X".
That's exactly what you're doing here by voting me instead of mhsmith.

[Ranger]

so during night I thought about whether or not I would have hammered Ranger just to have her flip or if I would have taken the no lynch instead. it's almost always correct to drop the hammer there, but I'm not sure I would have done it.

I wasn't around, but I too pondered it. I considered the thought of the advantages behind living and the wagon having failed, compared to the advantages of having my flip today and seeing what happened.

Ultimately, I concluded the latter would've been more valuable.

as has been discussed, you are hard on ranger all day as scum. I say I'm seeing things that are much different than the scum game I just saw from her. You immediately unvote (felt pockety as someone noted..ranger?)

Indeed.

as has been mentioned, it felt like you were trying to be off wagon and I can't help but think it's an additional attempt to pocket me. then you 180 to high and mighty I can't believe we couldn't get a ranger lynch off when its 20 min to eod. it's just all inconsistent and I struggle to see how it's a genuine progression from the uninformed

Which was my point exactly.

[Ranger]

I think I have a readslist.
{PantherPunt}
{DrippingGoofball}
{Titus, BTD6_maker}
{Xkfyu, Alpaca}
{mhsmith}

But this is basically 100% just gut.

[Ranger]

Maybe start w why alpaca went from a town soul read on one opening post to your lynchable range?

Defense of you for a start.

[Ranger]

@DGB/Ranger, can you both get along?

Well I'm townreading her. So not a problem on my end.

[Ranger]

She also proclaimed that a scum tell is being disinterested without subbing out.

I did?
This is news to me.

I mean, I've never willingly left a game.
So I don't see how I could have said something like that, when my inclination is to not

start

.

If she's town dissatisfied w the game state performance she'd work to fix things (poking at people, asking questions, re-reading, or even just talking about her town reads in depth in order to be useful there).

Bluntly.
This sounds terrible to say out loud but anyone paying attention could figure this out anyway.
This game is my absolute bottom priority.

I have feelings.
But while I have feelings, while I have vague sense of reads...I don't have direction.
Doing things requires direction.
And I have none. Every time we've had a replacement, there's been the hope that they would help me gain direction. Some did, like Touka helping. PantherPunt coming in was another good one. But by and large, they haven't changed things. There's a garbled mess of a game which I can't make heads or tails of. And I utterly lack the willpower to try. I've, flat-out, all-but given up.

I think you're scum.
I don't think PantherPunt is.
Other reads are negotiable, but weakly existent.
That's all I have, and it's all I can get with a royally-screwed-up gamestate.

I don't have anything to add.
I don't even know where I'd even begin to look.

[Ranger]

Mhsmith attempting to paint that as scummy is scummy.

Your white knighting of me is scummy.

Just sayin'.

I'm seeing several red flags from you that I associate with a scum-Titus.

[Ranger]

Unvote.

If DGB and and Titus wanted to convince me mhsmith was town.

They may have done so with their posting.

[Ranger]

I'll never understand players like you who replace into 20 different games and play none of them.

Yeah, probably not me you want support from on this, but all the same...here I am supporting this. I have nothing against playing in 20 games if you're actually playing them. And I have nothing against minimalists when playing. I fit in both categories. Giving as little effort as needed is acceptable and it can even be argued ideal.

...But you have to actually be

playing

, you have to actually

be

giving effort, you have to actually

contribute

something that is meaningful. My lack of ability for this is why I'm not signing up for new games at the moment (I think I'm recovering, though I'm not

quite

ready to play again yet in my opinion), so I know better than to try. But DrippingGoofball is playing how I would play as scum.

The problem is that I'm seeing suspicious behavior from everyone except PantherPunt, just different types.

DGB has this derp attitude which doesn't look natural.
Titus is giving all the many red flags.
I've stated my mhsmith suspicion.
{Alpaca, Xkfyu} extend from this slightly in their treatment of mhsmith, but also, Xkfyu is playing like a more reserved scum player, one that is trying to push for a mislynch while avoiding lynching a scumbuddy and still buddying town. (Hard to describe.)
BTD6_maker is a hard read. I don't see a lot of good from him. I don't remember anything particularly egregious from him either, though, so he has that in his favor.

[Ranger]

I do still stand by DrippingGoofball being more likely town than not though for what it's worth. Gut from her posting on 55.

Why does vote parking obvious scum convince you they are town?

That's not the reason why, and you assuming it is makes me even more uneasy, because I feel a town-you would have a better understanding of my suspicion.

Where I'm now at is that I think one of {Titus, mhsmith} is scum, but the other isn't.
I think that PantherPunt is town. If Titus is scum, DrippingGoofball is definitely town. If mhsmith is scum, this is less certain, but I still lean town.
So, that leaves {Alpaca, Xkfyu, BTD6_maker} for second-scum, and I need to find which teams are possible and which...aren't.

[Ranger]

So, right now, doing the math: if we lynch, we go to 7 alive.
Worst case, if scum have doused 2 already, we get 5 tomorrow if they ignite, or 7 tomorrow with 3 successfully doused most likely.
If we lynch again, to 6, and they ignite, down to 3.

So, worst case scenario, I think we have two mislynches as of this moment. (Best case is obviously more than two.)

Meaning, I really think {mhsmith, Titus} should be solved today, and that means I really think we should lynch one. (Namely, mhsmith who has the votes.) If they flip town, lynch the other. But I want to hear from PantherPunt first on this.

[Ranger]

@ranger/panther: talk about your Titus read a bit more?

Well, for a start, off the top of my head...
First red flag: trying to buddy to two players who are both probably town: "Hey, Ranger, DGB, can we work together?"
Second red flag: White knighting a mislynch bait player, e.g. me.

I'd have to look at all the posts to find all the pertinent details beyond those two, but they are the largest, most important of the red flags. There's others, too, but those alone are instantly enough to make me speed-paranoid of Titus.

[Ranger]

I think making this post (screw you for calling me dumb and/or lazy) is outside her wolf range barring good evidence to the contrary.

Every scum!Titus game ever?

"Screw you for..." is a standard part of Titus games, period. Town, scum, doesn't matter. I'd have to do my homework to see if there's any particular alignment distribution in method and frequency, which to be frank I'm not gonna bother doing, but it's there as both alignments, guaranteed.

So, unless Alpaca is suddenly bussing you, I see no scenario in which you're scum.

What

bus?
The way Alpaca handled mhsmith is one of the reasons Alpaca made my shortlist in the first place.

[Ranger]

{mhsmith, Titus}

VOTE: mhsmith.

[Ranger]

VOTE: Titus.

[Ranger]

No regrets.
I am in fact town, but PantherPunt's hammer was preeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetty much a scumclaim.
Which means we were never winning this game.

[Ranger]

That's TWO town losses within 24 hours of one another.

Meaning I am now on an

eight-game losing streak

as town.
EIGHT.

That's just the town games, I haven't exactly been winning a lot of my scumgames, either.

When will people learn NOT to lynch me, and NOT to ignore me when I've been nightkilled? >_>

[Ranger]

Was I at least right about Titus being scum?