Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

[Sotty7]

Hey there.

Currently I have read up until the end of day one and will be working through rest today. I see we're at lynch -1 so maybe I'll read today first so I can at least kinda comment on the goings ons there. If there is anything you guys need me to address ASAP, I'll be around for most of the day today.

[Sotty7]

Sotty!! I guess I'll hold off on the hammer for a bit.

Did you replace into a scum slot? = =b

Thankfully I didn't! I'm worried you might be scum though which is depressing. Reassure me?

I have read day one and what we have of day four so far so admittedly I am missing the meaty chunk of the sandwich which I really need to get to. My two scum picks right now are Katsuki and wingback although wingback's posting today feels really good so that might change. I see the logic behind lynching Chaos but I'm not fully behind it at this point. I just feel Nahdia grew to become pretty town by the end of day one and Chaos doesn't seem too terrible so far today either. I need to read the color flip of Katsuki because it sounds like it could be a tipping point in this game.

The Spiffeh/S_S/Irao combo is also reading as town right now. That is mostly due to Spiffeh's vote post on bellaphant back on day one where he said she just seemed to be asking surface questions with little to no follow up. This was my issue with the slot. I realize that is just one thing, but there you go.

Zulfy and Dwlee I haven't really decided on either way yet. Hoping to get a better feel once I make it though day 2 and 3

pie is pretty town.

[Sotty7]

D:

I'm town though!

Essentially players have been using my color flip as a basis for me being scum, which is utterly ridiculous because if I were scum I would have painted myself N1 no questions asked. Your slot is probably the most guilty of both this and trying to chain lynches.

Well chaining lynches is bad, we can agree on that. But that looks to be what's happening today? Unless you think pie is just saying we'll lynch you tomorrow in order to force this Chaos lynch through? Didn't I read a post from you that was essentially a three player lynch loop (my slot, your slot and Chaos' slot) Are we just at that point in the game were everyone is super frustrated with everything? It feels that way.

Welcome Sotty. Do you mind elaborating on your Chaos/Nahdia townreads? Chaos has pretty much disappeared and dwlee is posting all over the site while avoiding this game, not to mention that once he flipped purple and suspicion turned towards him, his response felt a lot like scum admitting it was game over (Post 1757, Post 1758) rather than addressing any of the arguments that were made in the past couple of pages. Chaos deflecting from dwlee also fits in with that.

This was confusing to start with but I see where you're going now, a Chaos + Dwelee scum team. I said I don't really have a much of a read on Dwelee because he hasn't done anything this game expect sheep and talk about how he is disconnected from the game. The most exciting thing he's done is flipping purple. I don't have the benefit of being in the game when that happened to get the true feeling of if he disappeared or not, but I am more than willing to take your word for it. What do you think about his claim that he just can't get into this game?

When it comes to Nahdia her posting style felt somewhat town. When I first started reading I had a few scum pings but it was actually the interaction between them and pie page 11/12 is what had me but them in a town grouping. I also skimmed the games that were offered in thread to see if this was a playing style (looked to be). I did go back and read from where Zulfy started to push his scum slip and it doesn't really change my mind. The slip was weak I can easily see myself making the same mistake Nahida did. Plus when they voted Zulfy and started to push him it wasn't like they moved their vote from Aristophanes, it was on Katsuki at the time. Nahida was also around at deadline to switch to make the lynch go through. Those few pages just looked like both Zulfy and Nahida using time to push their scum reads, Nahida is basically voting Zulfy all of day two as well. I don't see any serious attempt to redirect the lynch from Aristophanes because that's what you're getting at right? Is this end of day interaction the crux of your argument against the slot? I'm not really moved by it. What else you got?

[Sotty7]

Well you're voting for yourself for one. You should change that. Frustration is one thing, but with how close we are to throwing a day one scum lynch away is quite another. Get your vote on your scum pick. Unless it's Chaos. In that case unvote and state an intent to hammer. Right now not only are you not "engaged" in the game, your also activity harming the blue wincon.

If you're really are blue inside, fix this.

[Sotty7]

I have faith in you.

Katsuki ~ what's your wingback/bella read?

[Sotty7]

Like, this argument gives away that dwlee is scum who knows that Chaos is scum and is afraid of being chain-lynched after his partner and the game ending. He is basically setting up to argue that kraska's slot is scum with Chaos after Chaos flips scum. Holy cow, this is not even funny.

Sotty, if you really don't see what's going on here, I'll try and explain in more detail why I was scumreading Nahdia but I need to leave so this will be tonight.

Could be that I am a little out of step since I read day four before day three so I'm not getting it. More detail would be great, although I will re-read today as well and try and figure what you are driving at.

Just finished with day three, the fact Katsuki hammered his own red flip kinda blows my mind. Really makes me want to downgrade my scum read on that move alone. I know WIFOM and all that, but whatever.

[Sotty7]

Katsuki ~ what's your wingback/bella read?

No idea haven't read a single post from that slot.

I haven't read most of the game, but that should come as no surprise to you. I've been primarily sheeping pieguyn because she's obvobvobvtown.

I am of the opinion that at least 1 scum rests in {nahdia/kraska}, if not both. Your slot is chaining lynches, while I'm 1V2'ING, BIG difference.

Fair enough on all accounts. If you're town and we're both alive tomorrow I want to see what you think of them.

I just realized I didn't unvote and that was likely a hammer on chaos. Rookie mistake on my part really. If it matters I'll unvote but I don't really see us lynching elsewhere today.

unvote

[Sotty7]

No idea why it didn't cross my mind.

Who's your pick for irao's buddy?

[Sotty7]

Alright, mass claim time?

I'm thinking we vote for a color flip and that person also claims and we popcorn from there.

[Sotty7]

Vote: Wingback

[Sotty7]

I could get down with a no lynch

[Sotty7]

Or else...

More info is a good plan. Maybe not even too much discussion over the color flip. Just make sure everyone checks in and signs off

[Sotty7]

I appreciate the attempt to start some discussion, but with a no lynch situation it's best to post as little as possible to not give the scum more information when it comes to who to kill overnight. Right now we're just waiting on Katsuki to check in so we can push this forward.

[Sotty7]

Happy birthday Dwlee!

[Sotty7]

Vote: No lynch

[Sotty7]

Color flips:

Day one ~ Nina = BLUE
Day two ~ Nahdia =BLUE
Day three ~ Katsuki = RED
Day four ~ Dwlee = PURPLE
Day five ~ irainavp = WHITE

Only myself and wingback haven't been color flipped out of people who are alive. I'd like to flip me first and then start a mass claim and work from there. We could use my idea from yesterday of having whoever we color flip claim after and then start a popcorn claim. So if we flip me I'll claim and pick who I want to go next and so on.

Open to suggestions.

[Sotty7]

I'm fine with that claim order, or even popcorning after Katsuki checks in and claims.

I'm feeling a Katsuki/Wingback team mostly through POE as I am getting strong town off Dwlee and Ira's posting yesterday felt very town.

[Sotty7]

My town read on that slot starts with Spiffeh and is mostly because of his post here:

VOTE: Aristophanes

Trying to push the deadline wagon vote through on Aristophanes and others were letting themselves get distracted, Spiffeh could have continued to derail the push but doesn't. I'd recommend going back and reading the end of day one again. With Ira, that's mostly a gut thing but his posting yesterday just felt like naive town.

I feel like the Zulfy kill was more scum trying to find power roles and leaving people alive that would be easier to mislynch. I'm pretty glad they killed him as his posting around the end of day one could have convinced me to lynch him today, or at least get very distracted by him. I keep going back and forth on you but that's mostly because of the vote counts.

I'll be posting some more as I can but I have to leave for work right now.

[Sotty7]

That could be fair. Why do you think he is scum?

[Sotty7]

Should we put out cookies for katsuki? I'm eager to get this mass claim done already.

Wingback you partners post is pretty good on first look. I will devote more time to it once we get claimed up. I'm actually more interested in your second post about interactions with ari.

I'm looking through ISOs as we wait but the sooner we get down mass claiming the better the reading will be.

[Sotty7]

Prodded ugh... I keep forgetting about this game...

Sotty real talk here why do you think I'm scum?

Claim and then we can talk.

Also wingback has been banned, we're going to need a replacement.

[Sotty7]

I'm VT.

popcorn iraon

He has already claimed as a VT. Iraon, Dwlee and you are VT's

If no one has an issue I'll claim next since we have no firm time when we will be filling the Wingback slot.

[Sotty7]

I'm an Alert townie. I am informed if my color is changed over night, but I'm not told what color I become.

My color was changed last night which is why I wanted to be flipped today and not wingback. I was curious to see if I would be purple (a combo of blue and red) like Dwlee.

The fact that I know my color was changed last night means there have been six color changes in the game with only five nights.

Katsuki = RED
Dwlee = PURPLE
irainavp = WHITE
wingback =BLACK
Zulfy= RED
Sotty = ???

So lets talk Katsuki. I would like to know who you think is scum and why. I feel like the bulk of your posts in this game have been yelling about how you would have painted yourself as scum and I get it, I do. But we already have one flipped red townie and now we know that someone here didn't have their color flipped because we don't have enough nights. I want to drink the wine with you, but you're not doing anything to convince me, so I'm struggling to come up with a scum pairing that doesn't include you.

[Sotty7]

Does anyone have a link to paint mafia 1?

[Sotty7]

Please unvote. Regardless of the situation, this is still lylo, taking it a little slower can only help us.

There are some theories we can go through, but Katsuki is our focus right now.

Thanks for the link. I just want to check out the general setup of that game to see if I could be barking up the wrong tree or not.

[Sotty7]

Who do you think his partner is?

[Sotty7]

Why do you have wingback as more likely to be town? In your reads he goes from null to town, what's your train of thought with that?

[Sotty7]

Inattentive?
Go fuck yourself ira.

That's what you chose to focus on?

[Sotty7]

Or he could be legit frustrated with a game that has had every active player slot replaced that had been dragging painfully out the last 3 or so game days?

I mean I can understand this being real frustration. Why are you so convinced it's fake?

[Sotty7]

Youre going to look into my meta. Youre going to stop posting idiotic things.
I am going to take a break, try to eat something for once, and then come back.
If the quality of posting in this thread continues to aggravate me to no end I will be replacing out.

Please don't replace out. I'm glad you canceled it and took a break. That's the best thing to do.

At this point I think it's highly likely you are both town, so if we could reduce the bickering that would be awesome.

[Sotty7]

Ira is unreadable.

He's readable. You just need a second to chill out.

Holy crap it's Thor!

Thor you need to claim in your first post, you're the only one left.

[Sotty7]

ira also needs to unvote again

[Sotty7]

I am also quite suspicious of you if solely based on the fact that you're still alive. You were easily the strongest player remaining, yet here you still are standing in LYLO. What feeds this suspicion is the fact you appear quite close-minded and are focused on pushing my mislynch. I know I am town, in what is probably LYLO thus a situation where you only need a singular mislynch to win, and because I know you to be a highly skilled player, it points all the more to the reality of you being scum, because what you're doing is exactly what I'd be doing in your shoes. If you are indeed scum, we've probably already lost truth be told because there's no way I'd be getting you lynched over me, and you wouldn't help me bus your own partner anyways. Long story short, if you are scum then I'd rather you get this over with sooner than later because I can't wait to be free of this game.

This is pretty bullshit in all honesty. You're going to pull the why are you still alive card despite the fact this is my first game in forever and no one outside of you have experience with me? It's not like I have played a game well in years but that's neither here nor there. Your soul defense has been WIFOM that you would have been painted, now we're going to play the WIFOM game with my slot. How about we scum hunt instead?

I'm not pushing your lynch as the be all and end all. I do have another theroy of the crime, but if you're just going to sit here and pout by throwing some really weak shade my way then maybe we should just lynch you and be done with it.

[Sotty7]

Before you start to read you need to claim.

You're the only one left. Claim in your next post.

[Sotty7]

I mostly wanted to color flip myself because I was curious if I would be purple. I knew my color had been changed but I was wondering if it was a slow change and I would be purple (red+blue) like Dwlee, then I would have a possible confirmed townie in my back pocket.

I'm not trying to lynch myself, I never have. This is lylo. I never wanted to flip my color to figure out your slot, I wanted it to see if I matched any other color flip. Actually flipping your slot's color helped me more because now I know someone here has not been color flipped despite evidence to the contrary. That can mean one of two things. Either Katsuki wasn't flipped and is actually red, OR a scum has started the game with a different color. I'm not sure how you don't get that.

[Sotty7]

Do you think all scum started red and all town started blue?

[Sotty7]

Wingback, Thor's slot, voted to flip himself and yet Thor is suspicious of me now for wanting to do the same.

I mean, try wrapping your head around that for one second.

[Sotty7]

I defended my stance and you are being hypocritical. If you are town, the one town person you know did the same thing I did. You are making no sense and are still very much my top scum read despite the color flips.

I am currently not leading a quick lynch on Katsuki despite clearly having the votes for it because the info I have is not a full picture. I want Kastuki to come back and make some attempt to play the game and figure this out, because if he is town he has been setup to be the perfect mislynch.

[Sotty7]

How likely do we think it is that scum started as a different color? This is my first game in awhile, but from what I have read around the site meta has trended away from mafia godfathers and in a game like this scum starting as a different color would basically be that, a weaker version of one anyway.

Scum having the ability to flip town red AND starting a different color seems a little much looking at town powers in contrast.

[Sotty7]

I don't really have a plan when it comes to today. I think my info points towards katsuki but I'm not ruling out shenanigans which is why I'm more keen on interacting with him more than anything else. If he is town he needs to come back in here and hammer this out. I want to look back at the action around the color flips to see if that gives us anything. Otherwise I'm waiting on kats to come back and for you to read the game and go from there.

[Sotty7]

Dwlee, - you don't think scum could have started a different color?

[Sotty7]

Yeah Thor needs to read the game at this point.

I'm fine with Dwlee's read of me because he is pinging pretty town.

[Sotty7]

Oh hey I flipped red! XD

THIS IS KATSUKI BEING SURPRISED AT FLIPPING RED!!!!
THIS MEANS SHE IS SCUM BECAUSE WE KNOW SHE STARTED THE GAME AS RED

My point was hyposcum team starts with two red goons and one "other" color
That means are enough nights to flip katsuki red and have everyone else be flipped or not as the case maybe.

Feels like a reach typing it out but its possible, hence my question about scum team color.

[Sotty7]

Who are your scum reads Thor?

[Sotty7]

I'm currently at work posting from a kindle so it's hard to quote and keep up but I'm not 1v1 with katsuki at all.

Mostly posting to not hammer at this point. I'm willing to give katsuki a little more time. However the more he avoids the thread, the more it looks like scum bailing

[Sotty7]

Lets talk partners.

Possible combos:

Katsuki + Thor
Katsuki + Dwlee
Katsuki + iraonavp
Katsuki + Sotty
Thor+ Dwlee
Thor + iranoavp
Thor + Sotty
Dwlee + iraonavp
Dwlee + Sotty
Sotty + iraonavp


Right now we have Katsuki at lynch - 1 with iraonavp and Dwlee voting. Both myself and Thor have posted without a hammer. That rules out a team of me and Thor as it would make Katsuki town and one of us would have end gamed you all by now.

This also rules out any team of either myself or Thor with either Dwlee or iraonavp because again this would me Katsuki was town and either Thor or myself would have hammered and the game would be over. This leaves us with the following five groupings.

Katsuki + Thor
Katsuki + Dwlee
Katsuki + iraonavp
Katsuki + Sotty
Dwlee + iraonavp

Thor+ Dwlee

Thor + iranoavp

Thor + Sotty

Dwlee + Sotty

Sotty + iraonavp

Breaking it down like this makes it pretty clear to me that Katsuki is scum. I want to check into the Dwlee + iraonavp just to make myself feel better but right now I don't feel that being too likely. I spoke about an alternate theory of the crime, and I was thinking it could be iranovp + Thor. I was doing reading and Bellaphant (Thor) left a vote on Spiffeh (iraonavp) a lot of day one despite spending most of her time pushing elsewhere on her reads. It stuck out to me. We have ruled that partnership out since Thor didn't hammer.

Am I missing something?

[Sotty7]

I remain confirmed town except if Katsuki is scum.

Though really the only point here is Sotty.

Okay, sell me Dwlee + iraonvp. I get the feeling you haven't read the game, mostly because your arguments have been based off today's events. I suggest you get on that ASAP because I'm reading Dwlee and iraonvp as town just based off reactions over today and yesterday and everything is just screaming at me to hammer Katsuki.

[Sotty7]

I'll take a look through at those possible partnerships. I wonder if it might be better to keep our opinions on those brief with an eye to tomorrow and not tipping our hand for the final scum.

You seem to agree that Katsuki is the best option for today. I think I will be checking out iraonvp + Dwlee and if I am fine with that not being the partnership we should hammer.

[Sotty7]

I'll be willing to hammer tonight. I just want to finish my iro/dwlee read then I'll be good.

[Sotty7]

I can give you some time kats.

Would be cool if iroanvp would check in

[Sotty7]

Katsuki said he'll post today, if he doesn't he'll get hammered. I don't think one day is too much to wait.

I'll be real surprised if he comes up with anything to make my change my mind but I'm curious.

[Sotty7]

I'm currently at work posting from a kindle so it's hard to quote and keep up but I'm not 1v1 with katsuki at all.

Mostly posting to not hammer at this point. I'm willing to give katsuki a little more time. However the more he avoids the thread, the more it looks like scum bailing

Who said we were 1v1?

Thor

[Sotty7]

I'm pretty sure you need to talk me through why it's iro and dwlee, math is on their side not yours. I'm also curious why you only seem interested in talking to me when you could be pleading to Thor as well. We both have the ability to lose the game if your town, why are you putting the game in my hands?

[Sotty7]

to lay things out in more depth for people like Zulfy who might not have followed all of my posts so far:

I think S_S and Nahdia is the most likely scum team. however, there are two imminent issues with an S_S lynch: 1. I also feel about 95% sure {Katsuki, Nahdia} contains exactly one scum, and in a situation like that you resolve it the day *before* XYLO, not at XYLO, and 2. if we lynch S_S first, I die overnight and Nahdia's slot will likely get away straight to endgame, especially with people like kraska in the game who are not only easily manipulable but who are also going to turn around and straight up lynch one of the people who is scum reading her.

my scum read on Nahdia is a lot stronger than my scum read on S_S, and I think there are some other possibilities outside of S_S being the second scum; namely I think Nahdia's partner is somewhere in {S_S, dwlee, Wingback}, with Wingback being more of an outside shot than anything. for this reason, and because there has been no talk at all about the idea of flipping dwlee and so he would not have been flipped last night (and couldn't have been flipped N1/N2 because those went to Nahdia and Katsuki) - despite thinking S_S is more likely scum - it's more prudent to flip dwlee here, for the end goal of solidifying town reads. the end result then becomes that if dwlee flips blue, it makes {Nahdia, S_S} very close to a lock unless something stupid is going on or at the least *if* S_S is town we have a lot more information about who the last scum is, and if he flips red, then that's a lot more useful than something like S_S flipping red where there'd be a lot of WIFOM regarding whether scum altered his color or not.

lynching Katsuki first out of this pair doesn't work for the same reason lynching S_S first doesn't work: Nahdia's slot will get straight to endgame if we take that route. and if Nahdia somehow flips *town*, then I feel a lot better about the rest of yall's chances tomorrow despite not trusting people like kraska for shit, since the Katsuki lynch will be guaranteed with really no way for him to argue his way out of it.

ergo, flip dwlee -> lynch Nahdia is the percentage play and the play that is by far the most difficult for scum to play around

if Nahdia and Katsuki are both town then lolol, we all just collectively suck so I don't mind as much.

the question here is, which among the following do we believe:

1. the scum team is {Nahdia, S_S or someone else who isn't dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3, of all the town players in the game, decided on flipping dwlee N3 despite him being pretty much widely considered town and no one talking about flipping him whatsoever? I don't mean this rhetorically, I'm wondering if there's something I'm missing here.

2. the scum team is {Nahdia, dwlee}. they flipped Nahdia N1, Katsuki N2, and N3 gave dwlee a different non-red color that wasn't blue?

3. Nahdia-slot isn't on the scum team and it's {Katsuki, someone}, and they just didn't bother painting Katsuki blue for some reason? in that case we have no idea except at some point they flipped dwlee, and we should consider who they figured would be a more valuable use for the blue paint than Katsuki, which I have trouble seeing since he was a consensus scum read and pretty much everyone wanted to flip him.

no one bum rush shit, I need to think about this more and probably won't be back until later.

dwlee is not "confirmed scum", or even more likely scum, really, if CO is town. if CO is town then we're in case 3 from my 1716, and scum could have done just about anything with the flips.

that's a large part of why lynching dwlee first is really fucking stupid, and it's also the reason it's stupid that people are claiming this is "lining up lynches". if CO flips town, we don't do anything with dwlee tomorrow, we reevaluate from there (with the additional knowledge Katsuki is very likely scum).

kraska still isn't scum, she's just a really, really, really, really bad player.

lynching dwlee over CO is really bad and it isn't theoretically correct due to there being one scum in CO/Katsuki. moreover, there are a few things I need to look at before being sure of whether it's dwlee or not.

[Sotty7]

Thor are you willing to hammer?

[Sotty7]

Yeah I'm happy it's not irao and dwlee. Ready to hammer today

[Sotty7]

Love you too kats

[Sotty7]

Lol and you were super helpful

[Sotty7]

For real?

Nicely done if so.

[Sotty7]

Holy crap!

If you're town that was a nice move. I was hooked on Thor but iro was my second choice. The vote on kats then just leaving the thread felt suspect.

Thor's reaction felt real.

[Sotty7]

One of the most classic endings ever...poor Thor lol!!!

Followed due to my girl pie...but also glad to see sotty come out of retirement!!!

What up!!

This was a freaking great ending. I would feel bad for Thor but he was scum so nah.

The replacements were overwhelming, but it was good to get to the end with a win after all that. Thanks for modding Cheetory