In post 392, pieguyn wrote:even if you "don't buy the part about her being modconfirmed at some point", why is that a reason for lynching her on day 1? it's more correct theory-wise to leave her alive until day 3 or so, and then lynch/question the claim if she still hasn't been confirmed by then
Let's run through the scenarios:
Ranger is Town PR
: We out her with a claim, swap lynch targets and she presumably gets blocked/killed - This is bad, but why would a role like Cop/Vig/etc claim as she did on D1 and put a target on themselves? That makes no sense, so I don't think she falls into this.
Ranger is IC:
We out her, swap lynch targets, and she dies in the night - her getting outed and dying is going to happen anyway, so it doesn't hurt much to have it now, especially since we have a conftown in Nina as is
Ranger is VT gambiting:
We probably mislynch, but we only lose an unhelpful VT - this is the realistic WCS to me
Ranger is Scum PR, gambiting to stay alive and use her power:
We either lynch her today and she dies before she can use her role, which is massive, or we force her into a hard claim and make it harder for her to wiggle later - both of these are huge wins for us, and this is the most likely scenario to me
Ranger is mafia goon
- She's caught and we lynch her today - this is another big win
Situations #1 and #2 make no sense to me - why would a PR or IC claim this? What advantage does it give them? I've thought she was gambiting VT since the claim, and didn't want to say it for fear of ruining the plan, but at this point I don't believe that.
If she was truly a VT attempting to draw the NK, why hasn't she scumhunted or done
anything
to make herself a tempting target to the Scumteam? You don't draw the NK by softclaiming confirmable and then sitting on your hands. Also, if she WAS a VT and wanted to draw the early kill, why would she push to confirm Pie as town, given how strong Pie's town game is, and that Pie would be the obvious N1 kill over herself?
pedit:
I think trying to play less open and more under-the-radar in order to dodge NKs until later in the game is something she would do.
Why would a town PR "trying to play UTR and dodge kills" claim confirmable under no pressure on D1? Her actions don't line up as Town PR, they don't make sense as Town VT, but they make a lot of sense as Scum imo.
I don't have anything to put here because my normal signature is images. Weeeeee.