Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

[pieguyn]

vote: Ranger

[pieguyn]

A reminder to have fun and also to request things for Ether to draw! [Preferably some things without people in them for her sake ]

so much for my plan to do nothing but request endless images with Chiaki in them. I r sad.

pedit: hai

[pieguyn]

Only scum Ranger would forget me on her readlist.
That was a serious vote.

are you actually serious about this? if so, why do you think so?

[pieguyn]

i can't really tell if i'm operating on the same wavelength as everyone else on this so i'd like to clear this up ASAP. at least for D1, i am treating the color flip exactly like a regular lynch. i don't think scum would have any way of manipulating colors pre-D1 lynch so doing it in this way in effect gives two chances of hitting scum instead of one, with the corresponding information advantage (i usually expect content surrounding scum reads/affecting who the lynch will actually be to be more relevant in terms of sorting alignment than content surrounding town reads) and the possibility of clearing a player. although, now that i think about it if we're going to play it this way i would prefer to avoid an "obvious" target for the D1 color flip.

i thought about trying to "clear" a strong player or a player who is dangerous as scum but i don't really think that's useful and it is a bad thing to rely on the assumption scum couldn't just NK them. outside of that i haven't really thought about it much so i'm open to suggestions

also,

Why did you feel the need to claim that

is the claim actually something you're considering disbelieving? i don't see why this is something you'd even bother to ask if this isn't the case.

[pieguyn]

VOTE: utl

lynch vote ranger

why UTL?

[pieguyn]

VOTE: utl

lynch vote ranger

why UTL?

vote: hiplop

[pieguyn]

because he apparently either missed or is ignoring my question.

I haven't liked his play in general, either, but I'd like him to answer first before elaborating on why.

[pieguyn]

beeboy is probably town.

[pieguyn]

Like I said Hiplop is asking to be flipped.
If the conclusion he is scum he should be lynched.

pedit: <3

there are actual play reasons I have for hiplop being scum that are unrelated to him just ignoring me. I just want him to answer my question first.

re: the second line, what do you think of my 51?

[pieguyn]

I'm not even against speedflips, tbh, on any day that _isn't_ D1. but it completely fucking blows my mind how people can see what I'm writing and not give a shit that, hey, on D1 a speedflip is clearly not the optimal play!

[pieguyn]

What else is there to gain?

treating it the same as a regular lynch in essence forces people to do more and makes it more difficult for scum to hide: commit to more stances, post more reasoning for their scum reads, try to actually accomplish things, and so forth. that combined with whatever flip we get, when played correctly, would be much more productive - it would essentially be like playing two day phases before N1

on the other hand, speed-flipping just reduces it to any standard D1 with maybe a clear

I agree that a guilty result would always be reliable day 1 since a day-framer is incredibly unlikely and I don't even think scum would have a framer. Although I think it is pretty odd to assume that scum don't have any form of tailors/godfathers, I checked the last paint mafia game which did not contain anyways for scum to appear town. Although as a result I actually think it is more likely for scum to have a godfather considering there wasn't any in the last iteration of paint mafia and having a flawless way to confirm townies feels a little too powerful. Although I have reasons to not scum read hiplop here I am incredibly uncomfortable with "confirming" him as he is literally asking for it which is raising all sorts of alarm bells.

last game iirc scum could paint someone blue (town) once. there almost definitely is a similar mechanic in place here, whether it's the same or it's as you say.

[pieguyn]

optimal play is a bullshit term people made up so they can pretend that the arbitrary actions they take are better than the arbitrary actions others take.

did you even read the post?

[pieguyn]

I'm only even suggesting this for D1. the key here is that, barring something like a godfather role (which in this case would be scum which starts the game as blue), whatever flip we get on D1 will be reliable. it's less worth it once we need to worry about the flip being wrong.

if it's played right, having in essence two day phases (the second of which with the knowledge of one person's alignment) before scum can even do anything could be amazing. I don't see why the possibility of that should just be thrown out entirely.

[pieguyn]

I am still not willing to flip him if he continues to ask for votes, I am going to do it when it is time to lynch someone. Godfathers are weaker then tailors and I think they would be more likely to be in this game.

that's fine with me tbh.

[pieguyn]

I don't really.

This flip mechanic still has me tilted

what exactly is "tilting" you about it?

it doesn't seem difficult to understand - at best just try to flip someone you think is scum

[pieguyn]

Nina - "thestatusquo"

Host - "Why?"

Nina - "Their opening was all sorts of wrong, and there was no attempt to even get involved"

I agree with this, btw. I don't like that he really did jack shit besides trying to discredit my flip strat; that kind of entrance seems more typical of scum looking for an easy way to post as opposed to town trying to figure anything out at all.

[pieguyn]

vote: TSQ

[pieguyn]

Last game it ended up being useless

VOTE: tsq

and you think this is a good reason to not attempt to think about how it should be used this game ... or address what I _have_ written about it ... or so much as form a scum read?

this is my issue with you in general: you've done absolutely nothing so far to game solve, and I don't really buy "mechanics confusion" as a reason for this. all you've done so far was jump on leading wagons with other people - while this is reasonable if you aren't sure exactly how your vote in this situation should be used, it doesn't excuse not trying to form reads at all. you haven't posted any reasoning or tried to question anyone at all based on their actual play and it makes me think you're mostly using the early-game confusion as an excuse to hide (the alternative being something like "I'm tilted on who to vote, but I know I don't like players X, Y, Z").

[pieguyn]

Explain to me why you think this is TSQ!scum rather than just TSQ being TSQ?

regardless of who it is, I would expect a town player to... post reads... or ask questions... or do literally anything at all to sort people, rather than what TSQ did. what he did was pop in, make one vague snipe at me, and then do absolutely nothing else. it isn't productive and it isn't a town entrance; it is fairly standard for scum to just sit and vaguely snipe at things when they aren't sure what to comment on and want to look like they're doing things.

do you have meta that suggests this is usual for TSQ, or?


regardless of TSQ, TBG is probably town for what he said about beeboy. I usually don't expect scum to try to point out town slips, and I like the way he specifically called out Nina on the TSQ wagon rather than the scum alternative which usually looks like "don't like this wagon" with hardly any specifics. the reasoning didn't look forced, either.

also Ether/Cheetory, that is amazing. is it OK if I steal that for my avi? (I'd guess that was your intention, based on the image size, but I don't want to just steal it without asking first.)

[pieguyn]

Like part of what I don't like about your attack (although I'm less concerned about it than certain people on the wagon) is that it puts a burden on me that wasn't put on literally anyone else in the game. I was supposed to be serious and trying to sort out the game in my first and second posts? Literally no one does that in the current site meta. The fact that you singled me out over literally everyone else in the game who made random/jokey entrances into the game is really kind of strange.

that really doesn't have anything to do with it. people obviously don't take the game seriously right at the beginning, where there is no serious content. however, at the point where you came into the game, it was out of RVS, or at the very least there was serious content that you could read and judge which had nothing to do with mechanics (in my posts alone I was hinting at hiplop and Spiffeh being scum) - your focus felt really off because you didn't even try to sort through any of it, just snipe at what I suggested about the flip phase. if you had come in, joked around, and then tried to sort through reads, it would have been fine; you did not

claiming that "you're capable of being more involved as scum" is also irrelevant, because if you are scum here, I don't think you _realized_ how forced it looked; I think you thought "this looks like a good way to get involved" and posted it.

I disagree with you on the TBG thing. In my experience scum are more likely to search for reasons to call people town early on, because a) they are trying to not make enemies and b) they already know people are town and are thus more likely to call people town than town because town is unsure.

usually I'd agree with this. I liked this in particular though because he specifically called it a town slip. it's much harder to backtrack after calling something an outright town slip than just saying "X looks town", which is a stance that requires a lot less commitment.

ugh and the role fishing here too.

:/

what do you think Nina has to gain by "role fishing" there?

[pieguyn]

starting to get nervous about pieguyn... they seem to be proactively sorting but I keep coming out with the opposite perspective on events as them.

which reads do you disagree with and why?


I agree that the TSQ rolefishing argument is a bad one (I'm still unsorted on Nina ftr), but at this moment I don't think it's scum-indicative. some people always just call out "role fishing" whether someone actually has anything to gain from it or whether there's anything to lose by someone claiming what they're being asked for. I saw this in the last large theme I played and TSQ strikes me as someone who would do the same. I'm hoping I have more insight over this after he answers my question.

I'm not really satisfied with Nahdia coming in here and happening to push both TSQ and Nina as scum, though the rest of her catchup seems ok.

[pieguyn]

replace me out, I'm too irritable to play with

um, what?

if this is in reference to me, that's not what I was trying to say at all. :/

[pieguyn]

I didn't like the timing of your beeboy townread (i do townread him now but at the time you said he was town i had him as mixed vibes), and I didn't really like the TBG read. not saying that like, you were logically incorrect to have those reads. it's just, in my reading I kind of got the opposite impression from both of those situations

can you elaborate more on the TBG read? also I can explain the beeboy read if you want.

p-edit: :<

[pieguyn]

@everyone else: Can we get this wagon going please, or at least discussion. This is stagnant AF and that makes me sad.

before I compromise, I want TSQ to fully respond to my post, and I want Spiffeh and TD37 to generate at least some amount of content.

speaking of TD37's slot, do you disagree with my thoughts in 131?

[pieguyn]

I agree that it's an awfully convenient way to justify a TSQ vote/speedwagon and general lack of content, which I dislike, especially since hiplop should know how likely it is that the color flip is accurate on D1, so it does earn minor scumpoints. My only issue is that if you assume town!hiplop, then his actions all make sense from the PoV of someone who thinks it's all useless. In short, I can see that coming from either town!hiplop or scum!hiplop, with Scum being a little more likely.

my issue is less about the mechanics confusion and more about the fact that, even outside of the mechanics confusion, he had literally no reads whatsoever. I could potentially see the flip confusion coming from him as town and I kinda wish he didn't replace out cos I wanted to see what he would do after I straight-up prompted him to not think about the flip for the time being and give me scum reads. but I don't see a town player going "I'm too tilted because of this flip mechanic, so I don't have any idea about scum reads" which is what he basically did. what I would expect a town player to do is something like "I'm tilted because of this flip mechanic, so I'm mostly just going to ignore it and move on".

even if you don't understand how to use the flip, then at best figuring out who to flip and figuring out who the scum are are two separate, independent events - not knowing who specifically to flip isn't a reason for not doing anything at all to look for scum in general

It's not a matter of lynching.

It's a matter of who we want confirmed town.

And pie is a player I very much would want to be confirmed town.

while this makes me happy (<3), I've spent quite a while talking about why I think it's better to try and flip scum reads like a standard lynch. why do you disagree?

also, another point about this is that I think I'm usually fairly transparently town when I'm town, so using it to flip me would just be a waste. you (and other people) might have a different opinion than myself on this but I expect it would be more optimal to flip someone else if we're attempting to flip town players

[pieguyn]

All caught up

VOTE: Nahdia

Her tone is off from the few games I played with her where she was town

And I feel like she's

kiiiinda

poking and prodding at things to seem involved but don't really remember her stating any concrete scum reads/making pushes.

which games are you using as a reference for this? also ftr the last sentence is something I've considered too.

[pieguyn]

tbh Nahdia's reaction to the above Spiffeh post that I quoted is more subdued than I usually expect town to react when they have that argument pushed on them. if I'm in a game with someone who I've played multiple games with and they start pushing me because "my tone is off", my reaction is usually something along the lines of "this isn't any different than how I was in our previous games, what the fuck is going on?". on the other hand, when I'm scum and someone has correctly pushed me because of my tone being off, and I know I haven't correctly emulated the tone that I usually have when I'm town, I know I can't really react that way without looking like obvious scum so I have to kinda sorta shrug it off and hope no one else notices it. which is much more similar to what Nahdia did here.

@Nahdia:

do you have any response to this, and can you elaborate in more depth on why you think Spiffeh is scum?

actually that combined with what I pointed out on her previously kinda makes me want to lean towards a Nahdia vote, pending TSQ's response and what I see when I look through her games

I could probably vote lala. despite being stream-of-consciousness, her catchup was actually fairly content-light and didn't have much in terms of original content. actually, now that I read it again, I have all sorts of issues with 218 (her reads list), in terms of hedged language/scum being careful with what they're saying. the most obvious one is the read on TBG "TBG seems town but I'm still going to be wary of him for ... no specific reason", which is something that I attribute to scum looking like they're trying to be logical and consider all of the possibilities. the reads on UTL and Nahdia have similar nuances in phrasing/tone that I attribute to the same thing.

nina, gameshow/interview/whatever post was entertaining but uh, the reasoning for the reads was basically just gut - got anything else to back em up now? tone reads awkwardly though could just be newbness i guess... still atm = = = nullscum

this read looks flat-out fake. the major reason is, from what I can tell, lala seems to be a player who forms reads heavily based on tone/gut (I could be wrong on this, if I am correct me), and she literally _in the same post_ handwaved at least one read because of "idk, gut". I could see an argument such as "your reads are bad", but she explicitly fucking calls her out for "not having anything else to back up her reads" - this is a much easier callout to make as scum than town since it's the kind of thing that _looks_ nice and is objectively true, i.e. difficult to question, as opposed to something that you have to argue and back up. I also take issue with the last sentence because there's nothing specific there - usually when town have issues with tone they have at the very least something vaguely specific to back it up (even something such as Spiffeh using town games as a reference), but here there is none. again, it's a stance that is much easier to take and requires less commitment.

shea/tsq, i want you to be town but your posting doesn't look town to me :/ i'm prob wrong about either nina or shea since they're going after each other but i think this slot is more likely = = = scum

in all honesty, this explicitly reads like she's attempting to line up a TSQ/Nina dichotomy when there's no good reason for it - I don't really have any idea of what her thought process behind this conclusion actually was.

[pieguyn]

actually fuck it

vote: lala

i think a lala (or Nahdia) scum flip points pretty strongly to TSQ and Nina both being town. i think that both lala and Nahdia are posturing around this in a way similar to how i would expect scum to behave when lining up lynches - both are mostly just sitting back and fueling it from the sidelines without getting too involved in it either way

[pieguyn]

i have town reads on UTL, dwlee, Ranger, TBG, and maybe Spiffeh pending a few things. this doesn't really help in terms of who the current wagons are, but it's a part of why i don't really want to lynch inside of {TSQ, Nina} anymore even though TSQ still hasn't done jack shit and i don't have a town read on Nina. i really cannot emphasize how dissatisfied i am with 218 as a reads list, and she isn't even the only one who's fucking doing it. i think that if TSQ and Nina are both town, it's something that scum would consider attempting to take advantage of

i would like if people could comment on if they agree/disagree with my thoughts on lala and why.

[pieguyn]

but I still prefer a Nina flip because it's a 2 for 1 on Spiffeh too if Nina flips Scum

how?

[pieguyn]

oh, i see it.

/shrug

while i don't think Nina's 106 was a town post, i don't think it's as scummy as you seem to think it is. i've seen posts like that coming from scum but if it's all you have then eh - i think lala's reads list has much more blatantly obvious signs of being fabricated than Nina's did, that have much less likely of an explanation than "town who just wanted to try a different entrance".

i also don't think that your logic for Nina-scum condemning Spiffeh is particularly solid. i've seen more egregious mistakes coming from town who have just derped. i can't think of where OTOH but i know that _i've_ had weird mix-ups like that which have no real logical explanation behind them - sometimes people try to make a reads list and just get two people confused in a way that seemingly makes no sense. it could be that they're both scum (i don't even town read Nina tbh), but if they are, i don't think it's for what you're pointing out.

p-edit: @TBG

[pieguyn]

there's also the point that, *if* Nina is scum here, she could have just been making up reads entirely and was originally planning on listing Spiffeh as one of her "scum reads"

i think that regardless of what Spiffeh's alignment is, that possibility is far, far greater than the possibility that she just happened to "slip"

[pieguyn]

i dont really see the point in asking someone who never gives explanations to elaborate on something

that's exactly the reason i'm asking about it

what little content spiff has as well as his relative disconnect from this game are the basis for my scumread.

if you feel this way, then why haven't you tried to engage him at all over his apparent scum read on you? i would expect that if Spiffeh is sitting there with little content, and his first real scum read was a scum read on you which you knew was wrong and potentially disingenuous, then engaging with him over it is exactly the first thing you would want to do in order to draw out more indicative content from him.

i think that instead, you deliberately tried to avoid it out of fear that it would make you look worse

[pieguyn]

i'm going to ask you to make this explicit instead of making vague assertions which may or may not address the point i'm actually making

[pieguyn]

also fucking lol if you actually just tried to get out of this by calling me scum

i hope for your own sake that that's not what you actually meant by that post

[pieguyn]

the part I take issue with is specifically "i'm prob wrong about either nina or shea since they're going after each other". that just read like a bullshit throwaway statement she threw in as an afterthought, rather than having any kind of thought process behind it. I don't understand why, if she thought this, she didn't actually stop to give it any consideration when analyzing the game. nowhere in her reads list or in her catchup did she ever actually try to address the interactions between those two or figure out which one she was wrong on - she was perfectly content just calling them both scum and leaving it at that.

again, it is something that points more to her just posturing here

also I still don't understand what you're trying to say in 265.

[pieguyn]

anyone reading the game can comprehend why someone skimming to catch up would set a dichotomy between those two slots. you don't have to agree with it, but you're essentially suggesting ducks pulled it out of nowhere. if that's not disingenuous, it's ignorant.

you're misinterpreting my point

it is possible that a town player might see two slots pushing each other and "set" a dichotomy, yes

my issue with it is twofold:

1. the complete lack of anything at all towards resolving it. I don't really care if you think it's "ignorant" to think someone might form a dichotomy between two players. it's flat-out common sense that just accepting something like "this is TxS" is narrow-minded at best and completely fucking stupid at worst. there is the possibility that you're just wrong and both players are town - which is something most people know to be disastrous, i.e. TxT arguments leading into chain mislynches ... there is the possibility that scum is pushing at least one of the lynches ... there is the possibility both players are scum ... situations like this are much more nuanced than "this is TxS". she just wrote it off as "I'm probably wrong on one of TSQ/Nina but I have no idea which one I'm wrong on", and left it at that. there was no follow-up on it, no pointed questioning aimed at confirming whether she was, in fact, wrong on one of them or which one she was wrong on outside of one really vague question to TSQ which was _before_ the TSQ/Nina fight even happened. the thought process she displayed had no depth to it at all, which is more indicative of scum than town.

2. even if it is possible, it's a weird thing to focus on from a town POV. town players don't usually see an argument and, with no analysis of what is actually being said in the argument, think "one of these people is scum". that just isn't something that happens. if someone sees an argument, between two scum reads, and starts thinking that they might be wrong about them, the obvious thing to do is to start analyzing and trying to break down what is actually being said so they can see who is actually in the right in the argument, who looks more like they're BS'ing the reasons for the other person being scum, who seems defensive, the compositions of the two wagons, and so forth. that kind of thing should be a major point of contention for someone who's scum reading both players and apparently thinks that something in there is compelling enough to warrant them not being scum together, but she didn't comment about any of the things I would expect her to be focusing on if she was town here: Nina's read on TSQ's entrance, TSQ's read on Nina (in particular the thing about "role fishing", which has been a huge topic of conversation), my scum read on TSQ, TBG's stance on Nina being linked to Spiffeh, or anything like that.

on the other hand, from a scum POV, it is clearly beneficial to try to get people to buy into a bullshit argument between two town players by reinforcing the notion that there's scum in the argument. and if you're going to do something like this, it usually looks very similar to what lala did: push vague scum reads on both of them individually without actually committing to a firm stance in the argument. (Ranger and Spiffeh should remember this all too well. )

that's what my issue is. saying it was because she "pulled it out of nowhere" isn't even close to my point - it's that the way it was done isn't remotely town. the way in which she formed her reads on both of them individually wasn't organic and there was much less follow-up on it (read: absolutely none) than I would expect from town who actually had conflicting feelings about their reads there

you're suggesting i fear elaboration on a scumread on me from a guy who had 5 minutes prior answered just "Gut" when I asked him to spell out a townread. ridiculous.

even if "gut" townreads weren't fairly common, this doesn't really address the point I'm making - the point is that it would be a bad situation *if* he started talking about the read on you and it started gaining traction. logically, it would be better for you not to even risk a situation like that coming up unless it was necessary, which it wasn't (as he wasn't pressuring it very hard). on the other hand, engaging him about the read on you is a natural next step from a town POV: if you were scum reading him based on his lack of content, and his first real "content" was a scum read on you which you knew was wrong and probably disingenuous, then hell yes you would attack it.

[pieguyn]

it is also noted that you chose to selectively engage with me about this one point while ignoring the rest of my reasoning for lala being scum. do you have a town read on lala or... ?

p-edit: /shrug

it's an incredibly misguided way of thinking at best, and it's a type of thinking i see scum employ significantly more often than town, explicitly *due* to how convenient for scum it is

[pieguyn]

Pie, I can't see why you are pushing this? Spiffeh's reads are kinda terrible and I can't see any effort from him to interact with the slots either. The only person with weirder reads is lala, who's 'eeeh, maybe' and 'I've read you as scum before when you were town' and 'gut' seem super forced.

actually, I agreed with the idea that Nahdia wasn't committing to any firm scum reads. though I can't say that I'm really OK with him just coming in here, voting the leading wagon, and continuing to not generate any other content.

also, tbh, I don't have any problem with Nahdia's response in 282.

[pieguyn]

if Nina flips blue, I want attention focused on lala during the lynching phase, full stop. can we agree to this?

I don't agree with the argument that itle "scum slipped" by omitting Nina from his reads list. however, I do agree that in general leaving Nina off of the reads list when she was a major focus is somewhat weird. the other thing is that he called Spiffeh's 46 decent when it really really wasn't, and town read him due to "nothing about his play pings me at all" when it was only page 2, which kinda reads like he was stretching to find a reason to list him as town.

p-edit: that's kinda why I asked Spiffeh for the games he was using as a reference, so I could cross-check if what he was saying was actually well-reasoned or not. unfortunately, he disappointed me :<

[pieguyn]

if you want, though I don't know if I'll get anything out of it unless I know what he was actually looking for in them

p-edit: thx

[pieguyn]

can I point out that lala's response to me addresses basically none of the points I was actually making?

can I point out that lala still has ignored basically everything surrounding the TSQ/Nina argument from earlier - both what they posted about each other and other people's stances surrounding it?

can I point out that, despite claiming that she originally just left the TSQ/Nina fight alone because she didn't have any time and didn't want to sort through it... even now that she _has_ came back and started posting again, she's done fucking nothing to try and actually sort through the situation better? she literally came back, wrote these posts directed to me, and then put a vote on Nina with _no_ further consideration. let's suppose she is actually just town who takes pause at the Nina/TSQ interactions - if she actually believed this, she would realize that something like this would be something you'd have to actually address before voting, since it could significantly affect the outcome of the lynch (or in this case flip). as just one example, suppose TSQ is the scum in the pair - what now? then voting Nina would just be a waste, and as it stands she would have done literally nothing to stop it or figure it out... because ignoring the possibility of it being a mislynch is such a town mentality to have ...

can ANYONE tell me why they think lala is town, outside of "natural posting lel"? this is fucking textbook scum play when you see two town players infighting and don't know how to inject yourself into the argument in a way that makes yourself look good from it. I don't even know how worth it is to fight the Nina flip tbh cos a Nina town flip would further back all of this up, but god _damn_.

[pieguyn]

UTL, do you agree that at the very least a Nina town flip would implicate lala? why/why not?

[pieguyn]

Pie you can have a townread +1

what was your read on Spiffeh again?

I was actually contemplating moving over there cos I don't want to run this into a deadline scramble and it still doesn't look like there's much consensus over whether we're trying to flip town reads or scum reads or something else, and it seems people are complacent with flipping Nina (despite the fact that there basically has been no reasoning given for scum reading her outside of her entrance post, and the link to Spiffeh which is really meh and not well-reasoned even if she *does* wind up being scum). Spiffeh, itle, and obviously lala are all much better wagons, tbh.

[pieguyn]

eh

vote: Spiffeh

i don't know if this will get anywhere but i prefer this to Nina. i thought we had another day :/

[pieguyn]

vote: lala

[pieguyn]

Welp. VOTE: Ranger.

you break my heart. haven't you been saying this whole time you've agreed with my read on lala?

I think Ranger's approach this game is fairly standard for her. I think that her just doing her own thing, especially in this situation, definitely falls in line with how she would play as town, and there's another reason that I find her town based on her play which I don't really know if I should talk about at this point or not (since it's kind of speculative...) and either way I don't really see why we would lynch her when she's claimed a confirmable town role.

[pieguyn]

even if you "don't buy the part about her being modconfirmed at some point", why is that a reason for lynching her on day 1? it's more correct theory-wise to leave her alive until day 3 or so, and then lynch/question the claim if she still hasn't been confirmed by then

[pieguyn]

I would love the speculation and meta on Ranger - is it normal for her to be this unhelpful and opaque as Town?

I guess I'll just say it: I think her being clear is exactly the reason she's being this "unhelpful and opaque". I don't claim to have a good accuracy reading her, but if I think about it, I think trying to play less open and more under-the-radar in order to dodge NKs until later in the game is something she would do.

This whole thing just reads to me as a Scum gambit to coast to late-game and then deal with the claim by being a Scum PR or just going "oh i was drawing the NK lol".

hence why, if D3 comes and she tries to claim some bullshit role which can't actually get confirmed, _then_ it's correct to lynch her unless she has a really compelling explanation for it

[pieguyn]

lala is town.

_why is lala town_

explain in detail if possible, and if your reason is "natural posting" I'll slap your head off.

[pieguyn]

Why would a town PR "trying to play UTR and dodge kills" claim confirmable under no pressure on D1? Her actions don't line up as Town PR, they don't make sense as Town VT, but they make a lot of sense as Scum imo.

she claims a confirmable role so that people (in theory) can rule her as being scum and focus on scum hunting elsewhere, and then tries to play under-the-radar so she can survive as late into the game as possible.

i've definitely seen something like this done in other games, specifically the idea of a clear trying to keep themselves alive to reduce the amount of people the player list has to sort. this seems entirely plausible to me and i'm not really going to speculate on her role is when i have no way of knowing if i'm evaluating every possibility or not

[pieguyn]

btw

Request: a turtle standing upright and leaning against a lamppost, with its arms extended forward as if trying to hug it.

my turtle beats all of your animals. any objections?

[pieguyn]

i'm saying Ranger claims a confirmable role on D1 to reduce the amount of scum hunting pressure placed on the rest of the player list (only 11 people to sort instead of 12), and then from there, she tries to play under-the-radar in order to survive as long as possible.

i'm not claiming it necessarily is what she's doing, just that it's the first possibility that i can think of. but either way you're correct to say it's a stupid thing for her to lie about

[pieguyn]

so what's the case on ducks besides "her readslist seemed vapid" or is that it?

meanwhile

VOTE: spiffeh

i don't know if this is a misrepresentation or if you're just mixing up my point but i don't really like you handwaving basically everything i've wrote about her this game as "her readslist seemed vapid". even if you don't agree with my point, i've explained in death why i specifically think that the *way* she caught up and formed her reads wasn't town-oriented, and why the reasoning she gave behind her reads seemed fake, not just "vapid". i've also pointed out that her "i didn't have any time to look through Nina/TSQ more" is just a bullshit excuse she gave to stall the wagon out, as even when she *did* have time, she didn't do it.

[pieguyn]

Okay, but why would she claim it at that time? Why not once she took heat, which she probably wouldn't, considering she's playing UTR anyway? Hell, taking some heat and THEN claiming would give us a decent body to analyze.

probably because if she did, there would be people like ... yourself ... who continue to question the claim despite it being a "confirmable role" claim. you said it yourself, right? it would be much more difficult for her to back up the claim if she made it under pressure

claiming immediately makes more sense when you realize that claiming it under pressure is still somewhat risky

[pieguyn]

um, you want me to give a tl;dr of my read?

as i understood it, you already read my in-depth explanation of it and "disagreed with just about everything" i was writing. has your opinion changed?

[pieguyn]

for one, it isn't just "that readslist". it's the readslist, what she did leading up to the readslist, and her approach to the game in general.

second, her latest posts are scummy, for a few reasons which i've explained already. first off, you call it "content", but there really is no content there. she literally came back, "responded" to me, put a vote on Nina, and left again. you seem to be voting Spiffeh for a lack of content - this is the same fucking thing: putting a vote on the leading wagon and offering no reads whatsoever. the response to me itself was mostly irrelevant, and ignored the majority of the arguments i was actually making - as just one example, her response to me saying she was ignoring Nina/TSQ's argument was ... ??? ... and her response to me saying she had no original content was basically just to shrug and say "yes, everyone else keeps saying what i want to say" with still no attempt at generating original content. the entire response is like that, those are just the first two i can think of OTOH. i would like to know what you think her latest content actually was

and i've already said this, but the last line of 326 is scummy for an entirely different reason. she claimed her intent was to "sort Nina/TSQ out later". then she came back and blatantly voted Nina without putting any effort into doing this at all. does that strike you as town who actually takes pause at the Nina interactions, or does it strike you as scum who's just bullshitting a reason for stalling out the Nina interactions?

[pieguyn]

Lala's pretty clearly disconnected, see:

how the fuck is this any different than what Spiffeh is supposedly is doing?

someone who apparently is disconnected but actively makes up excuses to not read people is much worse than someone who has done nothing of the sort. if you want to push another wagon just to see what happens, that's fine, but this is a really poor excuse for giving her a pass for anything

I don't like how hard you are pushing this at all.

what specifically don't you like about it? is there a part of his reasoning or the way he's pushing it that comes off as disingenuous?

[pieguyn]

also @itlepip, you seem to have missed my question from earlier. why do you have a town read on lala?

[pieguyn]

you mean to say it agrees with your reads or? what exactly about it makes it "godreads"?

[pieguyn]

It's different because Spiffeh might be scum trying to fly UTR intentionally,

in the first place, as far as I'm aware Spiffeh is more than capable of being very active and engaged as scum. moreover, I have seen him lurk or be inactive for long periods as town before. the simpler explanation is that he's not being active or engaged here because, for whatever reason, he just hasn't felt like being active or engaged in the game. I find him scummy more because what he _has_ done while he's been here hasn't been town, which, surprise, is also why I take issue with lala's play... being "disconnected" isn't an excuse for outright making up reads or making up reasons for not committing to a really important stance

Pretty misreppy to say I'm giving her a pass on anything when in the post you quoted, you removed the parts where I said I supported her wagon and thought what she did was scummy, disconnect or no. She's my second favorite lynch candidate - she's not getting a pass at all.

yes, I'm aware of this, but you're acting like her behavior is somehow less scummy because "lel genuinely disconnected". that's exactly the definition of giving her a pass for it.

I don't really think you're scum for it, I just want to make it clear that what you're doing here is poorly reasoned.

[pieguyn]

entirely unrelated point, has Aris done anything at all this game? I don't remember a single read from him besides "lala and Nahdia are town because their posting is really natural", which is about the most shallow reasoning for a town read that can possibly exist, and he hasn't made any pushes at all. this is notable because as far as I'm aware he prefers town over scum and tends to be a more lurky player as scum (if I'm wrong on this correct me).

[pieguyn]

god I want to lynch half the game rn.

[pieguyn]

dont lynch me i love you

I was fucking sure that Nina/TSQ was just a town/town infight and that scum were capitalizing on it, but I've disliked basically everything Katsuki has done so far. his latest reads are no exception.

you asked me before if I had any issue with lala's posts outside of her early play. did you have any response to 412 (the last paragraph in particular), and have you made anything of Katsuki's recent posts?

[pieguyn]

Bella can be town.

@itle,

can you respond to these?

what specifically don't you like about it? is there a part of his reasoning or the way he's pushing it that comes off as disingenuous?

you mean to say it agrees with your reads or? what exactly about it makes it "godreads"?

[pieguyn]

aristo, fluffy fluffy filler is what i'm seeing from you... very fluffy.... well pretty fluffy...... quite fluffy?........... somewhat fluffy??................. p.s. i forgot you when thinking back about the players and had to go look at vc to see who i was missing and it was you heh, not b/c you're not noteworthy just you haven't done like anything noteworthy which is suspicious cos you've been around = = = scum

why haven't you followed up on this read? were you really that satisfied with "you and Nahdia are town because your posting is natural" where it was worth dropping it entirely?

[pieguyn]

2. Yes I agree with the reads, or at least I can easily follow the thought processes that led to those reads.

i think you're on the wrong track with this. it really isn't that difficult to be "open" about thought processes as scum. in fact, that's usually a large part of how i try to get town read when i'm scum: post really well-thought out reads and cases that people can look at and think "oh, i see where she's coming from on this!".

i think it's much better to consider the actual content of the read itself, i.e. the reasoning she's using and the arguments she's trying to make. lala is being open with reads, but i think the actual content of her reads is severely lacking. her reads on TSQ and Nina are really shallow (Nina for "only having gut reads" and TSQ because "his posting doesn't look town")... in terms of TSQ, she apparently pointed out one of his posts as an "ad hominem", but ignored literally all of the Nina/TSQ drama that happened. i don't really know how she managed to single out one, mostly irrelevant post while ignoring all of the relevant posts, unless she was scum just attempting to cherry pick posts to comment on from the sidelines.

i actually had some second thoughts about this when i went back to look at it again because i could see myself maybe agreeing with her read on Aris, but then i realized there was absolutely no follow-up on it... i could accept that if she just hadn't got around to doing it yet, but if her recent posts are any indication, she specifically singled out UTL for being inactive while apparently forgetting about Aris entirely. so /shrug

do you make anything of the point that lala blatantly voted Nina without even following up on her "i was planning on sorting through Nina/TSQ later" first?

1. It mechanically doesn't make any sense. Ranger hasn't done anything towny but they said they are confirmed tomorrow so idgaf. Building this whole push feels like scum that knows Ranger is town and is trying to capitalize before they are confirmed.

tbh TBG's Ranger push made me have second thoughts about him for this exact reason, but ultimately i think he's just misguided. is there a specific post/line of reasoning that comes off as disingenuous, or is it just an issue of it being unlikely town would push it so hard?

pip's defense actually feels p genuine to me. i dig it. not sure what about it is, i just like it.

i agree.

[pieguyn]

i don't really get you acting like this when you have all of two votes and there seems to be a lot of resistance to lynching you but if you can explain how everything about the TSQ/Nina scum reads somehow slipped your mind when you were trying to read them, yet you seemed to have no problem specifically making an argument against one TSQ post which was mostly irrelevant - or why you just came in here and voted Nina despite expressing that you wanted to sort through their interactions first (hint: i doubt you can) - or even give a more in-depth explanation of why you are/were conveniently scum reading TSQ's slot/Nina individually, then i might be more inclined to back off of you, yes. i am continuing to push you as scum because you have not answered any of these points.

what are you expecting, me to just go "lol nope, lala is town now for ... magic reasons"? because that would be stupid, and obviously so. if i'm wrong then convince me i'm wrong - just because i write a lot of words doesn't mean i won't reconsider my reads if someone provides a compelling reason for it

and no, i don't remember you doing any of these things in O593 at all, and i don't exactly know why you're trying to pull up a game from one year ago as if everyone is somehow able to remember in-detail how everyone acts in every game they play.

[pieguyn]

Lala's protesting too much looks so scummy, though.

yeah, this.

i actually really hate the last sentence of 465 - it doesn't make sense in the context of the rest of the paragraph (which seems to be a reach-out directed to me along the lines of "can you at least try to give me a bit of room here"). "X would call me scum for this" is a fairly textbook thing to say as scum when you want to attempt to make people think that the way X is pushing on you is unreasonable, though. it reads more like her attempting to save face as opposed to her legitimately trying to tell me she was annoyed at me

[pieguyn]

I feel like including a phrase like that looks more like someone trying to emulate stream of conscious rather than someone actually writing that way

Like I don't buy that town!ducks included that naturally

have you made it to the end yet? it gets even better, she proceeds to forget about it entirely and vote Nina without doing jack shit to really figure out the Nina/TSQ interactions first.

[pieguyn]

because the person I'm voting is waaay more frustrating.

it might be frustrating, but I'm pretty sure he's town. can you please reconsider joining us on lala?

[pieguyn]

Pie what are your thoughts on Bella?

I've agreed with the majority of her reads this game, lala-scum being the primary example of this, and I also liked her callout of Katsuki's reads being ass-backwards. the read on you, I thought was reasonable since at the point where she made it you only had I think one scum read and hadn't done much to push it, and apart from one brief instance earlier (which I think was just me being misguided), I didn't have any reason to think you were town.

outside from that, I don't really have much of a read based on her posts. I mostly am just thinking of her as town because I feel like we can accomplish amazing things if we work together. <_> /runs away

its like people think I just haven't thought about voting for lala and them telling me will change my mind.

no, it's that "he's annoying" is a really poor reason for reading someone as scum, and I don't get why you seem to think it's a good idea to vote dwlee because of it. what is the scum motivation for dwlee acting the way that he has been?

[pieguyn]

Bella hasn't provided a reason for scum reading me (other than my reads are terrible?) and I know she's seen me inactive early on as town before so she doesn't really have an excuse

A lot of her questions seem surface level to me and I don't really see her taking firm stances or even following up on the questions she asks?

She's using words like "awkward" and "terrible" rather than give explanations for feeling that way

how, specifically, would you have expected town-bella to approach her read on you? do you know her reads and/or pushes to be more in-depth than this as town, or... ?

[pieguyn]

I also still townread laladucks for the readlist that matched mine.

why don't you think it's a possibility that she was specifically trying to encourage your (incorrect) scum read on TSQ's slot?

that is sooorta a common scum play, and it's what I think she did here - do you have no comment on any of the behavioral reasons for her being scum I've pointed out so far (like, I don't know, the fact that her behavior surrounding you was disingenuous as fuck)?

[pieguyn]

I could be wrong, sure. But I don't think I need to reread lalaladucks when I have Katsuki and Aristophanes who could use rope.

can you walk me through why you're scum reading Katsuki's slot?

[pieguyn]

if you don't feel like reading the game, there's an easy solution: vote lala and just sit back and watch. it'll be glorious

[pieguyn]

I don't think that needs any more reasoning.

.......

you're reading Katsuki's slot as scum on page 20 for things TSQ did all the way at the beginning of the game day with nothing in between? and you think this reasoning is so strong that you're not even willing to so much as _consider_ possibilities elsewhere after almost an entire game day?

if you actually try to analyze what I'm posting and decide you don't agree with it, that's fine, but it blows my mind that you can't see how misguided your reasoning here is. I'd like if you could do an exercise for me - try to reread you/TSQ interactions with the mindset that you're both town and tell me if you notice anyone posturing around your wagons in a weird way.

[pieguyn]

like, I think there's a very real chance what's going on here is that you/TSQ got into a huge town/town infight and scum just sat and enjoyed it from the sidelines. I can't help but feel you don't want to consider other possibilities because you're biased here and really just want him to be scum... and this, in turn, is _exactly_ why it's fairly common scum play to take advantage of town/town infights to hopefully ride them out to mislynches. and this is why I want you to look at lala again - she kinda sorta just coasted through the whole thing while pushing weak scum reads individually on both you and TSQ without taking any firm stances or making any good observations at all elsewhere, really. even if I think Katsuki has done nothing town, I'm pretty hesitant to just accept "TSQ's slot is still scum because of his posts to me earlier" unless you can show me more well thought-out reasoning for your read here

not to mention, if you're right about Aris being scum, I'm pretty sure he did exactly the same thing during the you/TSQ interactions that I think lala did here.

[pieguyn]

also Ranger, I am thoroughly disappointed. I was actually kinda looking forward to seeing how your reads would turn out when you were done catching up since I imagine we would get pretty good results when working together on reads (going off of our one game where we were both actually town), but in addition to reading me as scum your reads are almost the exact opposite of mine. :/

I don't really know where to begin, either, since I imagine this is a scenario where me asking you questions about your reads would be counter-productive.

[pieguyn]

itle is town.

[pieguyn]

{Nina, Ranger, dwlee, itle, UTL}

i feel pretty sure everyone in the above group of players is town

{Katsuki*, bella, Spiffeh, Nahdia, TBG}

i have conflicting feelings about all of these players. most of them have some posts that i like, but i keep finding or agreeing with reasons to take issue with their play after i think about it some more - i might go through and talk about some of them later, if it's relevant or if someone asks, but regardless i would rather not lynch in this group today

{Aris, lala}

i've explained the lala scum read, in-depth, several times already. as for Aris, i alluded to this earlier but even when he has been here, i feel like he's been actively trying to avoid making waves in the game - he's been posting here and there but i feel like all of his posts are the types of posts scum typically make when they're looking for ways to coast as opposed to town taking any kind of stance. after the early game, i.e. the first two RL days or so, he's basically popped in, declared town reads on Nahdia and lala for no reason besides "natural posting" which is a really easy excuse when you want to bullshit a town read in a way where no one will question it... then he disappeared again, popped in again and complained about my walls ... and then ???. the latter, especially, is a kind of thing i would expect scum to post when they want to snipe at something in order to look like they're attempting to analyze the game when they're not (i would imagine a town approach being something like him explicitly calling me misguided for posting a bunch of walls about someone he had a strong town read on).

i don't particularly have a third scum read i feel strongly on - i keep waffling back and forth between people in the second tier.

i would really prefer if people noticed that there are a lot of people who seem to have scum reads on lala who are either voting elsewhere or just not voting. i don't usually like to comment on things like this but we have like 4 days left and the largest wagon is at two fucking votes, so... /shrug

[pieguyn]

i'm trying to decide if i like lala's latest series of posts or not

more later

[pieguyn]

hm reading this post you sound just
so reasonable and it makes me seem
so UNREASONABLE
prolly cos i am but eh
grrraarrrrrrrrrrrr

this is the kind of thing you keep posting that i don't really think makes any sense for you to post as town. first off, if you think i'm being "reasonable"... why did you turn around earlier and say that my push on you seemed to be so overblown that you didn't believe i'd actually think so strongly you were scum? and moreover, if you admit i'm being reasonable, why do you keep consistently taking such a contrary approach towards what i'm posting to you? there are even parts of this post that i'm responding to (532) that don't really look like you want to try to work things out with me here - you claiming i'm suspicious because "my reads are bad", you basically going "sorry, not sorry" when i tell you that i'm willing to engage you if you would actually respond to my posts - posts like 465 seem to imply the exact opposite, i.e. that you can't even do anything else in the game thread without feeling that i'd call you scum if you didn't respond to me first

on the other hand i think it makes at least some sense from you as scum - it reads like you don't want to engage me, but don't know how to actually question the argument in a way that will make you look good

to be completely honest i couldn't be bothered going back through and reading again >___>

i don't believe this either. i don't think that if it was that you "couldn't be bothered going back through and reading again", your approach towards the situation would have been what it was. you basically just voted and then later said "OK, i'm going to look through this now"... after the flip. if you have something that you want to check, and you decide for whatever reason you don't want to check it anymore, there is usually some specific reason that you would drop it (be it not feeling like it, it not being relevant anymore, or something else). i said this before, but "one of Nina and TSQ must be town" isn't a thought you would take so lightly when one of them is a lynch candidate, since from your POV there's at least a somewhat reasonable chance the person in question is town - this would be a possibility that would be necessary to think about and resolve before actually proceeding with a lynch. you didn't seem to notice this at all, or if you did, you didn't talk about it. i would probably buy you just not feeling up to rereading it tbh if you had talked about it or attempted to really sort it literally once when you _were_ here, outside of the one vague "they're probably not scum together" statement which you made ... even if you had said something along the lines of "i still don't know which one is scum but i didn't have a chance to figure out which" at the point where you voted ... but you didn't. it wasn't a part of your focus at all, which is why i think you just threw it in as a throwaway statement.

but moving on... let's suppose that OK, you did decide it would be fine to go ahead and vote. this means that you've decided that Nina-town was sufficiently unlikely... in that case, what was the point in even going back and deciding to look through their interactions later? from your POV, you already felel good enough about it being Nina. neither of them did anything in the interim that i imagine would change your (or anyone else's) opinion... by which i mean neither of them did literally anything...

again, it doesn't read like you actually intended to sort through their interactions there. what does it read like? you attempting to take advantage of the scum reads on both of them while trying to make it look like you're being reasonable/insightful by commenting on how one of them is town.

your reads in general are bad enough that i'm suspicious of you

this is the kind of read that i really, really would look a lot more favorably on if you actually tried to sit down and take the time to explain it. as it is, all i see is a thinly veiled attempt at discrediting. this is more so the case when at the very least, i had just talked about how i have two of your other scum reads as "scum" and "even though i don't want to lynch them for positional reasons i don't think anything they've done has looked town".

okay so, this is a terrible reason to townread bella
just want to quote this here, if i get lynched, look at my flip, lynch her next PLEASE

for the record, i don't really deny this and depending on what happens i could see myself agreeing with the scum reads here. a part of me also likes the way in which you snap-called me out on it. i don't really feel there was malicious intent in doing it - i think this looks like you legitimately thinking it's unlikely i would back off of you and hoping you can get through to me in this way, so to speak, as opposed to trying to keep up appearances.

in your own words, can you explain in more depth what is missing from bella's play in this game?

[pieguyn]

actually, now that i think about it, i don't really know if scum-lala's approach to this situation in general is to come in here and start antagonizing bella. she's the leading wagon, bella specifically takes issue with lala's play, and at this point i feel like she would be dead in the water if someone who was mostly interested in voting elsewhere decided to vote her instead.

:/

i don't know if that point makes any sense but i don't really see her trying to save herself or get out of it here, unless she thought someone would think along these lines and town read her for it

[pieguyn]

she had no reason to specifically push bella unless she was 1. struggling to form content and decided to just sheep Spiffeh's bella read because she couldn't think of anything else, or 2. going for what i said above.

there were more viable scum reads she could sheep for option 1 (ex. Aris) and i don't think option 2 feels particularly likely

[pieguyn]

someone tell me if they disagree with this or not because I'm pretty strongly considering moving to Aris rn.

[pieguyn]

vote: Aris

[pieguyn]

Holy fuck!
If you.would stop it with the wallsaubeni could get something done this game!

Nina's vote is pretty opportunistic in timing and I don't like it.

you complaining about my "walls" reads like you're not sure how you can justify a lack of content in a way that doesn't look bad, tbh. it's not a major point but I don't particularly believe you think this makes sense

@Ranger:

I'm aware you're scum reading me, but do you think my point in 555 is well-reasoned?

[pieguyn]

. I'm asking if (independent of what you think of my alignment) the point I'm making in the post is actually good or not.

you should know as well as I do that I find it almost impossible to read people who play mostly based on charisma as opposed to laying out reasoning for their reads, which appears to be the type of player lala is. I mostly just want a second opinion and yours is probably the one I would respect the most.

[pieguyn]

why on fucking earth is it so difficult to get any wagon past like 3 votes?

is there anyone in this game who thinks Aris has done _anything_ that looks remotely town?

[pieguyn]

VOTE: katsuki

what is your read on Aris? I just now noticed you haven't given one yet.

[pieguyn]

how could i possibly have a read on aris

that's exactly the point. what do you make of the fact that he's done literally nothing this entire game?

contrast, for instance, Spiffeh, who despite not being here a lot of the game at least gave reads and attempted to accomplish things while he *was* here (i.e. the read on you and the push on bella). Aris has just done literally fucking nothing.

[pieguyn]

........ why are you voting no lynch

[pieguyn]

Bad idea.

yeah......

do you have a town read on Aris or are you just being obstructionist for no reason?

[pieguyn]

to be perfectly clear, I don't buy that Aris thinks this game is "too many words" and that this somehow precludes him from trying to read the game. even if I'm posting a lot (which tbh I'm really, really not), the rest of this game is fairly light as far as content goes. I think he's struggling to come up with a way to fake content, and just coming up with excuses not to have to post because he doesn't want to risk making himself look worse off it.

@lala,

are you going to join us on Aris, and are you going to address my response to you?

[pieguyn]

I kinda lol'd. I figured that when I backed off and offered Aris as a potential counterwagon, lala would probably find some bullshit reason to not want to support the wagon and go to vote someone else.

[pieguyn]

Aristophanes [5] - Nina Williams, pieguyn, Dwlee99, TheBrawlGuy, Spiffeh
Spiffeh [2] - Bellaphant, itlepip
Katsuki [2] - Nahdia, lalaladucks
Zulfy [1] - Ranger
No Lynch [1] - Zulfy

Not Voting [2]:
Aristophanes, Katsuki

(expired on 2016-06-25 17:00:00)

[pieguyn]

I don't get it, why did you ask him this?

the question he asked felt more like he was just coming up with something to ask to look busy. I didn't see any reason to question the IC claim and I didn't see any reason for asking what he did unless you had reason to believe she was lying about it.

^L-1, btw.

[pieguyn]

You could have told me that the color flip had happened but you chose not to.

yes, and?

[pieguyn]

I'm willing to switch to katsuki tbh
idk if it is the avatar but I think ari could be town

no, please don't fucking do this. there is nothing town about his latest posts, and I suspect lala's "town read" on him is disingenuous.

I don't support a Katsuki lynch and if, by any chance, he does get lynched and he flips town, I will probably just start chain lynching from the Katsuki wagon. starting with lala and Aris, of course.

[pieguyn]

rather, the way she's like "I would rather not lynch Ari bc there's a chance Ari could just be town who didn't have the time for the game" - despite the fact that it's not an issue of his activity, it's about what he does while he _is_ here, and nothing he's done while he has been here has looked town. she hasn't addressed my reasons for scum reading him at all, either.

[pieguyn]

I'll respond to other posts after I finish a few things but

@Zulfy,

your reasoning that I'm scum for "not telling you Nina flipped when I could have" is horrendous. the reason for that is that, as you should hopefully be able to infer by reading my posts, I found most of the reasoning to scum read Nina rather weak/shallow. I wanted to see if you'd try to push her without realizing she had flipped already and, if so, for what reasons.

p-edit: hi

[pieguyn]

oh my fucking god Nahdia.

[pieguyn]

why the everliving fuck would you wait until 20 hours before the deadline to use this?

[pieguyn]

_why_ wouldn't you wait until, for instance, D2 to use it? what benefit did you even think there would be from DELIBERATELY CAUSING a fucking deadline scramble over this?

I think you deliberately used it right before the deadline hit so that people would just default into lynching him without thinking critically about it.

[pieguyn]

well yeah, that's part of it. but also because he scumclaimed like, just now.

and you would do this as town, why, exactly?

"disallow people from thinking critically about their lynch" is not an even remotely town mindset, not when you don't even claim to have a fucking town read on Aris.

[pieguyn]

OK I will fucking kill you. I didn't even notice because I'm distracted with something else rn.

but seriously

@Nahdia,

I understand why you feel that way about Zulfy's posts tbh but I really don't think Zulfy will happen today. can you please vote Aris with me? I'll take a more in-depth look tomorrow when we don't have to worry about rushing shit and potentially screwing ourselves into an incorrect lynch.

[pieguyn]

can we please not turn this into a deadline scramble?

there is literally no reason we can't talk about this tomorrow - what usually winds up happening when everyone runs around at the deadline is that scum takes advantage of it and pushes through whichever lynch is incorrect. I do not want to see that happening and I still do not see anything remotely town from Aris' slot.

[pieguyn]

I actually really don't see anything compelling in Aris' catchup. I don't like a lot of what he said about itle and I don't like that he mostly just focused entirely on dwlee or itle throughout the entire catchup without any focus elsewhere (except for me apparently being his strongest town read). seriously, try to count the number of times he mentions other people outside of those three in his catchup - it's literally just him making passing comments about itle or dwlee, commenting about me being town, or explicitly responding to people pressuring him. I might be being too harsh with this as it's essentially a last-minute catchup done with less than 1 RL day on the deadline, but I specifically take issue of a lot of what he wrote in his posts.

Nope. This is totally fake. Either SvT or SvS bussing.
Like, I can't even put into words how fake this feels!
Oh my god, they keep it going!

this is scummy for reasons which I hopefully shouldn't have to explain. _seriously_?

Can we do this instead of Dwlee? I can't believe a) that he is so adamant on this (as if he's really worried about it) and b) that it's, like, all he is talking about. Like, talk about using this claim to pretend to generate content!

this is a pretty blatant misrep of what itle has actually been doing in this game. he most certainly is not "just talking about" Ranger's claim - he's talked about it a lot, yes, but he's clearly giving reads elsewhere, i.e. how he liked lala's reads list at first, the scum read on TBG, the town read on me, coming around to seeing where I was coming from on lala-scum later. you trying to pass it off like it's "all he's talking about" reads like a huge oversimplification and a kind of thing I see coming from scum a lot because it's an easy way to handwave the majority of what someone is actually posting.

is fucking terrible!
If they were going to say it, they would have already. If not, what is the goddamsed point?
You dance around the fire so much before jumping in. How is this towny?

itle's intent here was fairly obvious. up to that point, Ranger really hadn't specified anything specific about her role, and no one had attempted to ask Ranger to make her claim more explicit and confirm she wasn't gambiting. he pretty clearly thought that Ranger hadn't done this yet because no one had explicitly prompted her to do so. what you're doing here is typical scum behavior - you're ignoring the obvious motivation for what itle is doing here to assign some cosmic scum motivation to it instead.

Also, you townread her, from this, yes? Yet you doubt the claim??
This reads like you're trying to pass off your read as going either way, should she actually flip.
What did you dislike so much about TBG scumreading Ranger if you yourself didn't buy the claim, hunh?

what I dislike here is that the conclusion here didn't really make any sense. he's basically saying that he was criticizing TBG's attack on Ranger and that this means that he had to have been town reading Ranger for it. now, there are legitimate issues you might take with itle's treatment of Ranger, but this is not one of them - poking TBG over the way he's pushing her doesn't in any way imply you necessarily think Ranger is town. the most obvious example is that he had some doubt over Ranger's claim but had more doubt over the way TBG was pushing it... questioning Ranger's claim and questioning TBG's push aren't mutually exclusive. "he's trying to be deliberately ambiguous about what his read on Ranger is" reads more like he's trying to nitpick semantics to fit a predetermined read than actually considering motivation, especially when you consider there are *so many* valid angles he could have pushed here instead ... i.e. "it's hypocritical of him to be so skeptical of TBG if he had been skeptical of Ranger's claim himself", or "he's trying to sit on the sidelines and doubtcast Ranger's claim rather than directly pushing her over it" or anything along those lines

I would like if people can tell me if they agree/disagree with this and why.

[pieguyn]

8 hours :/

I need to go to sleep, so I probably won't be back before the deadline hits. keep calm and lynch Aris.

[pieguyn]

wasn't dwlee already on Aris?

we need one more vote I think

[pieguyn]

o nvm, didn't see bella's vote

[pieguyn]

I don't really mind quick flips starting from here, although I want to point out that if we don't pick someone "obvious" per se, we can probably trust a red flip. I don't particularly feel the same way if we get a blue flip, cos if I was scum here and the painting mechanic functions in the same way it did last game I would be painting one of us blue immediately.

Zulfy's posts at the end of yesterday were really bad, but I want to call it town. -.- specifically what he was saying about Nahdia's "scum slip", I don't agree with it at all but it didn't come off forced or disingenuous to me.

[pieguyn]

vote: Nahdia

[pieguyn]

oh lord.

me thinks Katsuki is town.

[pieguyn]

I don't really mind quick flips starting from here, although I want to point out that if we don't pick someone "obvious" per se, we can probably trust a red flip. I don't particularly feel the same way if we get a blue flip, cos if I was scum here and the painting mechanic functions in the same way it did last game I would be painting one of us blue immediately.

Could you explain this for those of us who aren't familiar with the mechanics?

with the exception of TBG who claimed miller, all town start the game as blue and all scum start the game as red. in the last game, scum had a factional ability they could use each night to paint a player another color (1-shot blue, infinite-shot a bunch of other colors) and I'm assuming it works in the same or in a very similar way here. right now we're voting to flip someone's color.

there are two possibilities that I think are somewhat likely for what scum might have done last night and those are painting one of themselves blue (in essence making one of them a godfather against the flip phase) or painting a target red who they thought we would flip today (hoping we'd incorrectly assume they were scum for it). hence why I don't want to flip someone "obvious" and why I wouldn't trust a blue flip - neither of these would have been problems D1 because scum wouldn't have had a chance to change anyone's color yet.

[pieguyn]

uhhh i should lay down a vote i guess? since deadline's in a day... how many votes ppl have.
uhh looks like
aristo - 4
kats - 2
bella - 1

i find it a bit rich that i'm gonna make this vote w/o explaining my reazonz! but that's my theme this game i guess lol
VOTE: katsuki </3 i'm sry bae

I hate this post for two reasons:

1. it reads like she felt like she had to bend over backwards inventing a reason to explain her Katsuki vote. this would make more sense coming from a POV of being self-conscious about avoiding the scum counterwagon. I would expect the town alternative to be just voting Katsuki and not bothering to justify it at all/beyond "I find Katsuki scummier".

2. if she even had reasons for scum reading Katsuki here, she did basically nothing at all up to this point to even talk about them. if you look through her ISO the only thing she ever says about Katsuki amounts to "you're scum because TSQ was scum and you haven't done anything to convince me you were town", i.e. that it carried over from TSQ's play - which would have been 100% fine. the thing is, the last sentence directly implies she had more than that and just didn't talk about it for whatever reason, despite being relatively active in the game.

Katsuki-Aristophanes and one of Nahdia/Bellaphant/itlepip would be my guess.

oh yeah i forgot aristo was in this game also, he looks likely scum

I kinda lol'd. I figured that when I backed off and offered Aris as a potential counterwagon, lala would probably find some bullshit reason to not want to support the wagon and go to vote someone else.

?????????? you're complaining that i'd rather lynch my stronger scumreads than a slot that's done nothing but fluff around and make excuses for not catching up all game, aristo legitimately could be town who just didn't realise he wouldn't have enough time to play this game at this time
that said, i'll hammer in like 10hrs if there won't be any other lynch today

she also did this despite the fact Aris hadn't done jack shit in between these two posts, he just popped in and said "I'll have something more in a day or two" (which was something she specifically called him out for in her catchup preceding 626). "looks likely scum" to "could just be town who is behind with the game" is not a natural progression. the potential scum motivation for doing this is fairly obvious, and if Katsuki was really a "stronger scum read", she should have done ... literally anything ... to actually talk about it, which she didn't.

this said, I'd rather flip someone else since after how D1 played out, if I happen to be wrong on this read I could easily enough see scum painting lala red as the next "target" after Aris, but I want to lynch lala. as for other reads, I'm looking at the posts surrounding how the lala/Aris/Katsuki wagons happened and outside of this it's really fucking difficult to tell anything in general because of how inactive the game is, so I haven't found anything else that was notable about it yet.

[pieguyn]

Very low chance of getting altered in the Night

actually I 100% agree with this and I kinda think a dwlee flip would be useful just because it would almost certainly be accurate.

btw, after you brought up his vote, I looked again and saw this:

I'm willing to switch to katsuki tbh
idk if it is the avatar but I think ari could be town

what was the reasoning behind this?

[pieguyn]

I'm have no problem with that response.

what do both of you think about flipping Nahdia? I _really_ don't know if she's town tbh.

[pieguyn]

Ranger, you have legitimately some of the most backwards reads I have ever seen. why is Nahdia such a strong town read, and how in the everliving fuck do you think I'm scum after how D1 played out? I would want to give you room because I tend to misjudge your reasoning/you claimed a confirmable role/etc., but your reads being this weird and you continuing to push me as scum despite the fact that after Aris scumflip I'm really obviously not are major red flags.

so that the game doesn't completely stagnate, I'd rather not drag out the flip phase if no one has anything to say. if no one wants to flip Nahdia, my second preference is a Spiffeh flip, but I'm fine with compromising on just about anyone who I don't think would have been painted red overnight.

[pieguyn]

can someone hammer? I think we only have 21 hours left (the deadline timer in the VCs is for the end of the day), and this is dragging on way too long.

[pieguyn]

vote: lala

so that the game doesn't completely stagnate, if people disagree with this wagon, I would like them to offer 1-2 alternatives *with* reasons. I see a lot of "X is scum" and no explaining why this is the case, which really isn't getting us anywhere, i.e. I still have no understanding of why people on the last page or so are scum reading itle.

also, reminder that I'm not fully trusting of blue flips unless we happen to flip a blue scum sometime down the road.

[pieguyn]

how is that a scum claim

[pieguyn]

Pieguyn take it easy

you're town, but don't say things like this

[pieguyn]

how is that a scum claim

>_>

this shouldn't be that hard.

[pieguyn]

Cause it just is GOSH

do you have any other scum reads?

[pieguyn]

/sigh

a large part of the reason I'm not satisfied with things right now is because outside of lala I hardly have any idea who the remaining scum is, and this game being really fucking quiet is not helping with that. I'm totally capable of lynching or at the least supporting you on itle (I don't have any form of town read on him), but you have to give me fucking *something* to work with.

[pieguyn]

Nahdia, do you have any reads outside of Zulfy?

[pieguyn]

This is actually why a i am tunneling him

why does that make him scum?

ummmm....

dwlee's town, you're town, Ranger is nullscum.... if i have others i dont remember them.

why Ranger?

[pieguyn]

actually, after looking at it again, I don't like itle's end-of-D1 play at all, namely the fact that he came in and pushed dwlee who had no chance of being lynched while ignoring the rest of what was actually going on in the game. he didn't take any kind of stance on Katsuki/Aris whatsoever. I think this is something that's most likely to come from scum who isn't sure how to approach the situation in a way that would make them look good, since it was fairly obvious one of Katsuki/Aris was going to be the lynch.

Nahdia did something similar; she side-stepped me asking her for a read on Aris, and then went into pushing Zulfy, without commenting on Aris again until the wagon was ready to be hammered (and even then it was just a vote).

[pieguyn]

because zulfy was/is scummier.

the entire point is that it read more like your goal was to avoid committing to a read on Aris entirely. did you really think that in that situation, with only you and Ranger voting him, there was a good enough chance of Zulfy getting lynched with a last-minute deadline wagon with only a day and half left? moreover, did you really think it was worth the risk given you appeared to have a scum read on Katsuki and a scum read on me (the primary supporter of the Aris wagon)?

[pieguyn]

oh, absolutely fucking not. you don't get to pull this "lel I don't care look how town I am" bullshit over me.

what I'm saying is perfectly valid and if you don't convince me I'm wrong I'm going to push for people to lynch you after I die.

[pieguyn]

step OFF girl. you're asking me if i considered the ramifications of me sitting on a vanity wagon until the last second. those ramifications being that "it would appear scummy". and im telling you that no, i didn't, because i dont particularly give a shit. i sat on the zulfy wagon on a matter of principle because he is my desired lynch. i didnt particularly have an opinion on your aristo push and if u have a problem with that then sux to be you.

if you didn't have an opinion on my Aris push, why were you scum reading me at that point in the game?

and no, the ramification of this is that from your POV, with the reads you had, the obvious conclusion should have been that I was hard pushing a mislynch on Aris to save Katsuki as my partner. that is not something you would "not give a shit" about, especially if you thought I was in so strong of a position that you'd have to color-flip me in order to get me lynched.

[pieguyn]

you seemed to give enough of a fuck to play an entire day phase attempting to trick me into thinking you had a town read on me.

???

[pieguyn]

because saying "i think pie is town" is soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much effffffffffffffooooooooooooooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrttttttttttttttt

no, no, no. there is a huge difference between saying "I think pie is town" and structuring your entire game around giving me a false sense of security/making sure I don't catch on to you scum reading me, because it's that important that you're able to color flip me the next day (i.e. just as one example I can think of, even if you said something along the lines of "I'm weirded out by pie's post X", that would potentially tip me off and ruin what you were going for...) thinking I'm in such a good position as scum and thinking that the only way to lynch me is to get me color-flipped is incongruous with you now apparently claiming you weren't putting any effort into making sure my color-flip would be accurate.

this.

and I really have trouble seeing how that post in particular could lead to a scum read, tbh, as opposed to either of my pushes where the bulk of my content came from, but I'm not going to nitpick over it.

[pieguyn]

you said in 750 your entire gameplan yesterday was hard townreading me so that my color flip today would still be reliable, and that everyone besides Ranger was town reading me. it is clear that this was motivated by you thinking I was in such a good position that the only way you'd be able to get me lynched is by color-flipping me. I've outright said that the optimal play for scum in this setup, if given the chance, is to paint one of themselves blue immediately. thus, in order for this to work, it would have to have been of utmost importance to keep the read on me 100% hidden - if I so much as suspected you scum reading me, then there would have been a very good chance I would color-flip myself, breaking the plan.

this is not something that is trivial to do. in addition to openly hard townreading me, you can't so much as hint that you might have a scum read on me, and there are close to infinite ways this could happen... for instance, you can't comment on any of my posts striking you as off, you can't say that you take major issue with any of my reads, you can't back up anyone else who happens to scum read me (or even profess a town read on them in a way that makes it obvious you back up their read on me), you can't hint that you dislike the composition of a wagon I'm pushing, or a whole bunch of other things... it's something you'd have to be thinking about fairly consistently, since even if you so much as made it obvious there was something up with the way you were playing, without hinting at all as to what it was, I might have suspected you'd flip out on me.

now you're acting as though all you had to do was just throw out "I think pie is town" a few times, which is completely incorrect. moreover, if the read on me was really that important to you, it doesn't even make sense. you can't say that your entire plan yesterday was to give me a false sense of security, and then turn around and say that all you did was make a few throwaway comments about me being town - that is what I mean when I say "incongruous"

add to that the fact your actions around deadline don't line up with having me/Katsuki as scum reads and I don't get the impression you're really forming reads here. it reads to me more like you thought the Zulfy push was a good way to generate town-looking content and act like you had a read you believed strongly in, and there it was.

[pieguyn]

ftr I don't have any issue with Zulfy's posts (despite disagreeing with basically all of them) and UTL's posts looked town to me.

can someone explain in detail why they take issue with UTL's posts?

[pieguyn]

spiff

also, can you walk me through this?

[pieguyn]

I thoroughly hate lala complaining about "omg this game isn't fun bc people are asking for effort", and Katsuki's point seems fairly strong at a glance.

I dunno if you'll see this but

@dwlee,

have you had any opinion on what me/Katsuki have written about lala this game day? I don't disagree on itle, but I really think lala is a better shot at hitting scum right now, and I question if lala and itle can be scum together.

[pieguyn]

I have way too many scurmeads. urgh.

I'll help.
Zulfy's scum.
pie's scum.
Everyone else is therefore town.

I am thoroughly losing the faint sparkle of faith I had that you could have the reads that you have and be town.

even discounting everything else, you think I would play D1 the way I did as scum for... what reason?

[pieguyn]

why aren't people voting lala?

[pieguyn]

this game is really quiet.

bella/dwlee, is there any reason you two aren't voting lala yet? I think most of us agree on her being scum at this point, or at the least there's the most consensus surrounding her.

[pieguyn]

I agree with whoever said that at least one scum was on the Ari wagon. The way pie pushed Ari does meet the standard description of a bus. And there were enough people conspicuously off the Ari wagon, even when Ari's posting got downright desperate, of which Zulfy is one.

this is actually horrendous.

go on, in what way does me basically just death tunneling him until he got lynched when I had about a thousand opportunities to push people elsewhere and when it would have been completely unnecessary to do this as scum meet the "standard description" of a bus? what would I have even had to gain as scum from doing that? if there's one thing I most assuredly do _not_ do as scum, it's bussing my partners for literally no reason, because it's horrible scum play; bussing someone who is pretty much screwed is fine, but Aris was basically off everyone's radars entirely except for a few people going "he's kind of off because he usually does more than this when he's town" and none of them were really pushing it.

and you think scum was conspicuously staying away from the wagon, yet you then turn around and claim I apparently just bussed him for no reason?

WTF?

[pieguyn]

what I wrote in the above post is also where my issue with Ranger lies, ftr. she knows how completely stupid it is for scum to blindly bus with no deeper reason behind it, and more importantly for her specifically, she almost certainly should know of the fact that I'm averse to bussing as scum - yet she ignores that and continues to push me anyway.

she's not forming reads organically, she's decided that she wants to push me as scum and is ignoring what should be obvious evidence to the contrary, and if this game gets to like D4 or so and she isn't confirmed (or if she tries to claim some bullshit role that doesn't strictly confirm her as town and say that "the way I played this claim is so town so I'm pretty much confirmed town"), she needs to be lynched into the fucking ground.

[pieguyn]

And I think your description of Ari's situation was pretty inaccurate. He had no content, and when he did come up with content, it was terrible. There's no reason to believe that he would have responded any better to pressure had it come later in the game, and at any rate there is no way town would let him live until LYLO. So I think he was in fact a prime target to bus.

at some point later in the game, potentially. on D1 when literally no one had figured it out with any amount of confidence or even attempted to put serious pressure him yet? absolutely not.

look at it this way... the only reason you're even talking as if it'd be a foregone conclusion that his content would be terrible is because of how I pushed him D1. without that, he may have been able to coast a few more days, or otherwise come back at some point and generate content in a way that was more comfortable for him (due to it not being basically forced out of him), or something along those lines... that is exactly part of the reason blind bussing is such shit scum play

I think you're making the same mistake that ... someone who _would_ blind bus in that position ... would make, and thinking with the power of hindsight that Aris was basically unsalvageable and would need to die sooner or later. and you're not thinking about the more important question, which is "what do I have to gain at this point in the game from doing that as scum", which in that case is pretty much nothing.

there are other factors at play, too, i.e. the fact that this is a quiet game that's very lacking in direction, meaning if I as scum were to do something ridiculous, I'd have to explain why me who's supposedly so obvtown and one of the only real "leaders" per se is still alive all the way on D5... no matter how town I thought I could look, that isn't a position I'd want to be in as scum, ever (like yeah, I'm arguing against it right now, but think about it: as scum I have to do it today, and tomorrow, and every day after, and it gets harder and harder to do the longer I'm alive and the more improbable it would be for me to actually be left alive that long). or the fact that it was D1 and that he would have been a prime target for investigative roles overnight due to how much of a lurker he was... if you think this isn't the case then you need to fix your theory game.

And yeah, I was tired last night and on mobile, so I didn't put all my thoughts down, but I was basically thinking that one scum was conspicuously off the Ari wagon or at least trying not to be on it (because so many people were), and the other was therefore strongly pushing it to compensate and to avoid creating connections between the two.

you're making a mistake in thinking about things this way - in practice, a lot of scum don't really give a shit about forcing the votes to be a certain way, explicitly because doing this requires forcing votes and not pushing people "naturally" (me included when I do draw scum; actually, when I'm scum I usually explicitly prefer to vote with my partner/s when I can because a lot of people think scum won't vote together, but that's beside the point). it's OK for when someone makes a vote that looks really forced and you're trying to figure out for what reason they would have gone out of their way to force a vote, but if you're using it as a driving point behind your view of the day, not so much.

Well, basically, you pushed lala for a while, and then you were like "I don't think lala would be doing what they are as scum :/" and then you switched to Ari. Before 528, you hadn't really said much about him outside of "he hasn't done anything", then that is suddenly the reason for a major scumread. It doesn't feel like a natural read progression.

there is some context here you should probably be aware of: I've seen Aris' scum game before and he generally lurked a lot and was really hedgy/careful about his opinions, and while I had (and still have) no completed games with town-Aris, I've heard he is a player who prefers playing town over scum. thus, at the point where I made 432, that was sufficient to make me think he had a fairly good chance of being scum. also, this is another instance of you just assuming I had to push him at that point with the power of hindsight instead of considering what I would actually gain from doing it ... for what reason would me-scum have drawn that much attention to how he was playing at that point in the game?

[pieguyn]

Anyway, what I meant by saying "standard description of a bus" was the way you made the push. Not the fact that you made it or the timing of it, but once you started pushing Ari, it seemed like it could have been a bus. Your last point quoted above deflected my comment about the suddenness of your read progression, both about Ari and about lala. Even if you can say that your push on Ari makes you overall less likely to be his partner, it in no way makes it impossible as you are suggesting.

no, it absolutely did not.

I have scum reads on lala and Aris. lala then does something that looks kinda town, or at the very least is responding to me in a way that kinda looks like she's trying to work with me, and I have a bunch of people fighting me in a way where at the least it's obvious that lala would be a much harder lynch than Aris.

what do you expect me to do afterward?

Overall, I don't like the way you're pushing this. Essentially, you're pushing two contradictory statements:
1. You are essentially confirmed town for your push on Ari.
2. Scum has ABSOLUTELY no reason to do what you did.
You're turning possibilities into absolutes in a way that just doesn't make sense. If you were actually confirmed town for the push, then of course scum would have every motivation to do it, and then your whole argument falls apart.

this is really shit-awful reasoning. did you actually read anything I wrote in my first point? the entire point is that, while yeah in theory it could be strictly possible, it's a completely needless risk, that wouldn't have been remotely necessary, _especially_ not right then at that point in the game. I'm not complete shit at the game, I'm more than capable of looking town without having to resort to bussing, especially in a gamestate like this where no one outside of me is even attempting to lead shit.

it could be that I'm some master scum player who chose to defy basically all common sense and do it anyway, in some universe, but the simpler explanation for all of this is that I'm just town.

[pieguyn]

However, that doesn't explain the sudden switch of noticing Ari's lack of posting and deciding immediately that he must be scum for it, just at the same time as you decide lala is probably town for a small point after making a big case on them.

did you even read what I wrote?

I scum read Aris entirely independently of my scum read on lala. and not noticing it "immediately" is... kinda sorta the point of playing a light-content scum game... the entire goal of lurking as scum is to not get noticed by people for as long as possible. you won't really get anywhere trying to sort someone like that unless at some point you make a judgement call that the person isn't developing adequate content

[pieguyn]

Or he may not have. Bussing is a gambit; it's a bet that the towncred you earn will be enough to offset the loss of a partner. There is no empirically right answer. Maybe he asked you to bus him because he knew his content would continue to suck? I don't know.

what are you even on about here?

Aris' content for the majority of D1 could be considered passable enough, if you don't hunt motivation/read in between the lines enough and if you aren't familiar with his meta. it wasn't until he came back in AFTER I pushed him the entire fucking game day and started posting again that his content was horrible.

[pieguyn]

Yeah, that's fair enough, but it was less about appearances and more about "if one scum was avoiding the wagon and pushing elsewhere, why did it still go through?"

OK, I actually flat-out don't believe you can think something like this and not realize that, duh, the wagon went through because I was strong-arming it for practically the entire fucking game day. you're basically saying that "omg, a scum lynch went through with scum off the wagon" and that this means for ... some magical reason ... that the only reason I was able to push the lynch through was because I must be scum bussing, and you're not attempting to consider any alternate scenario to this, e.g. that another person on the wagon was scum or that scum basically just voted Aris by default after I made it obvious he'd be the lynch today. this is horrendous logic at best and outright disingenuous at worst.

[pieguyn]

how much mafia experience do you have, S_S?

basically everything you're saying here are things that are so nonsensical I would treat it as a hard scum tell, except for someone who is complete shit at the game and has no idea how logic works. you don't strike me as that type of player at all, even though you're fairly new.

[pieguyn]

I think the reason you find my arguments are so ridiculous is that I'm trying to argue one thing and you're subtly (and probably unintentionally) strawmanning and leading the argument further off the course of what it was originally intended to be. The original bussing charge (perhaps erroneously) disregarded your likelihood to bus in the case where you are scum, and instead focused solely on your push of Ari itself.

no, I find your arguments ridiculous because I find your thought process behind it to make no sense. I think there's about a 0% chance of me being lynched here, so it is not my goal to convince you; it is my goal to scum hunt your thought process.

976 in particular is a completely separate issue from whether what I did D1 looks like a bus: your angle there basically amounted to "there's scum off the wagon, and it's impossible for a town player to push through a scum wagon with scum off the wagon, so it must have been a bus", which... where the fuck did you even get this from? it makes no sense and I'm questioning you on it because it makes no sense. it reads more like you're trying to spin this narrative about "omg it must have been a bus" in order to make the reads you want to push more credible, rather than looking at how it went down and coming to any sort of natural conclusion.

as for the thing about pushing Aris, I don't really think you could be reading objectively and come to that conclusion: I literally told you a few posts ago I was scum reading Aris since before 528 (which you seem to be ignoring), after I voted him I called multiple times for people to vote him with me, when people tried to wagon Katsuki at the deadline I shut that down before it got anywhere, and when he came back and started posting again I pointed out why I took issue with his posts. it is also disingenuous that you would claim that I "didn't do that much" to push Aris when, duh, he was doing jack shit most of the game... which of his nonexistent posts, exactly, were you expecting me to attack? when he did make posts, I did break them down and criticize them. apart from that, calling for people to explain town reads on someone is an excellent way to push a lynch and it's baffling that you don't seem to realize this is what I was doing.

[pieguyn]

I don't know whether or not you would bus Ari in that scenario. I don't think "it's a needless risk" is a valid argument why not to. This is the crux of WIFOM: intentionally making it harder for yourself, just because people wouldn't expect you to make it harder for yourself. However, I don't want to go into it further, because you've made your point clear, and I simply don't agree with it.

if you're one for self-meta, my aversion to bussing unless I feel it's necessary is well documented throughout all of my scum games since 2015. I think it's outright stupid scum play to bus unless you have something to gain from it, and I mean more than just "lel town cred" because as I tried to tell you come D5 or so people aren't going to give a shit that you lynched scum all the way back on D1; I mean an actual positional advantage in the game.

[pieguyn]

also also, if you don't think I "strong-armed" the lynch: who led the Aris lynch if it wasn't me?

I seriously have 0 idea how you can read how that game day went and come to that conclusion. I can see thinking I wasn't 100% of it (which it's very rare for anyone to _actually_ be 100% of any lynch), but if you don't think I was at the least among the people who led it, who did?

[pieguyn]

But "strong-armed" to me implies that you made forceful and strong arguments and absolutely refused to consider anything else.

I strong-armed it about as much as I needed to to secure the lynch (there's no point in yelling at people really hard over it when most seem to already be receptive to the idea of him being scum), and I made about as forceful of an argument I could reasonably be sure of given how nonexistent he was. I can pretty safely say that I wouldn't have been willing to go anywhere else at that point; it probably just didn't feel that way because Katsuki was the only viable alternative, and thus the only alternative I really needed to shut down.

I'm actually a lot more OK with that response. I'll wait for you to finish elaborating on the rest of your reads.

[pieguyn]

Me
Pie am I voting lala

you're not right now.

you will, right?

/seductive smile

[pieguyn]

carefull pie, dwlee is a minor.

oh come on, I'm sure he'd enjoy some attention from an older girl. it's not like I'm going to *do* anything.

[pieguyn]

if lala flips scum I would look at S_S for scum but aside from that I only have minor issues with that reads list, really.

Zulfy is still town, btw, and I've found none of the reasoning for him being scum compelling. might tak in more depth about why I think he's town sometime later

[pieguyn]

Im scared

you're no fun. ;w;

[pieguyn]

@pieguyn what are your thoughts about Zulfy's pushing of Nahdia's alleged scumslip?

it's completely stupid, but I thought it looked town. I like the fact that he specifically singled me out as the person who should have been able to understand it and didn't; the last time I encountered him as scum I caught him pushing a fake "scum slip" on his partner, and it read like he was expecting me to see that what he was doing here was different from there. I like that even after everyone told him he was unequivocally wrong about it he didn't give a shit and continued pushing it anyway, I liked the follow-up push for what he saw as Nahdia attempting to oversell her scum read on him, which was actually pretty reasonable and didn't read at all like scum stretching to find shit to push, and I liked his demeanor and conviction surrounding it in general.

I think most of what you said about him in general, this included, are null-at-worst posts that you're just fitting scum motivation to because you think he's scum. feel free to ask if you have something else you specifically want me to comment on, although making a Zulfy-town case is something I'd like to do when I'm

not a lazy shit

less busy

[pieguyn]

so yeah
i didn't get invested in this game because if i get invested i get frustrated and stressssssed
therefore, apathy

can I point out that this is all lala has done for the entire past fucking *week*?

I really don't want to put any more effort into this than I have to.

[pieguyn]

uhhhh.

hai lilith?

[pieguyn]

<3

(also, page top)

[pieguyn]

In the meantime, do you think Zulfy would honestly call something a scumslip without bothering to read the context? (Because that's my biggest problem with that whole push; you had asked her about a townread just the post before.)

I think he read the context, I think he considered it irrelevant. especially when "do you town read lala or... ?" wasn't intended to preempt any kind of read from Nahdia, it was slightly more roundabout way of asking what Nahdia's read was and why she seemed so opposed to the wagon.

Also, what did you think about UTL?

I thought her demeanor looked town, and I thought some of the angles she was pushing at various points in the game (while I disagreed with most of it) looked town. I don't particularly consider any of the posts you pointed out to be "sniping from the sidelines" or anything like that; her discussion surrounding the color point was fine, and while I think she was wrong to push itle so strongly over omitting bella/Nina from his reads list, it read to me more like she just had no idea of what was going on the game and latched onto something she thought she saw that was incriminating enough. in fact, that's one of the angles I read town on due to the nuance behind it: the progression here read to me as "I'm so lost" to "Nina is an OK flip because it'd probably suggest itle is scum, that's about as good a thing as I can go off of for now".

p-edit: ^L-1.

[pieguyn]

{

Ranger

, Nahdia, S_S, TBG, itle} = my pool after lala flipped.

I don't really trust the color flip at all at this point, so would be fine with just about anything.

[pieguyn]

Why not at all? I feel like a blue flip would still give us a decent amount of information.

the last game scum were allowed to paint themselves blue once; I believe a similar mechanic exists here and if it does then scum have had two nights to figure out how to use it. if I was scum and had an ability like that, I'd want to use it sooner than later.

I pretty much agree with bella that at this point it's mostly WIFOM.

[pieguyn]

Yeah I don't wanna lose time working out if someone is lying, if someone flips a colour they weren't expecting....can scum paint people red as well as blue?

Like, I feel like we have scumspects whatever they flip? Like Zulfy being adamant dwlee town told over nothing.

last game was, scum had infinite shot of a bunch of colors (which included red, and other colors like green, orange, purple, black, etc.) and 1 shot of blue. blue flips will likely be entirely reliable if we happen to find scum who flips blue.

I guess with that in mind, it would make more sense to go for blue flips over red flips?

[pieguyn]

I think TBG is my preferred lynch today. I'm going to commence a meta dive of whether he's claimed miller in any previous scum games of his, since that's the major reason I think he could be town; I agree with his lala jump being awful and to be honest, when I look through his posts again, there are a lot of things that bug me about it that I want to recheck.

[pieguyn]

^that was fast. he hasn't, but he's only had one scum game, so it's most assuredly not a tell.

[pieguyn]

/loud sigh

[pieguyn]

I'm aware of that, but this is some kind of sick joke. if I have a scum read and it's correct, people don't seem to care (despite it being outright stupid to bus like that), if I have a scum read and it's incorrect I've mislynched someone and people take issue with how I went about it, if I have a town read then I'm lining up a mislynch for LYLO.

. . .

[pieguyn]

I changed my mind, I think I prefer an itle lynch rn. also, Katsuki might be scum.

bella is still town.

[pieguyn]

I also have a really underhanded reason for thinking the Spiffeh slot could be scum that I probably will not elaborate on unless it is convenient for me.

[pieguyn]

And where did you say why Bella was town before?

I guess I didn't explicitly say it anywhere, but I've thought she was town for a while now.

there isn't really a specific reason I changed my mind, I just thought about it more and felt a lot less sure about TBG being scum. meanwhile, itle hasn't even attempted to do anything at all this dayphase.

[pieguyn]

it's the latter.

I actually didn't notice him being V/LA, but regardless of that I think he's a fairly OK shot at hitting scum via POE. everyone else has had at least something that I can look at and think they could be town, but I don't get the same sense reading his ISO and I don't get the impression he's been trying to do much in general.

[pieguyn]

I think we should lynch Pieguyn today actually.

good luck with that.

I'd want to talk to you about your read on me, but I can't really do anything unless you give me any specifics behind it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[pieguyn]

I'd consider lynching him but he's not getting lynched anytime soon.

what do you mean by this, btw? there's definitely enough support to lynch him if that's what this is about.

[pieguyn]

I do to... but at the same time, she has a point. Checking her wiki, she really doesn't bus; I don't think she's even let any of her partners get lynched in the last few years.

Do you think she would deviate from that in this game?

ftr, if I *was* going to bus someone with the intention of making people think "pie is town because she usually doesn't bus", I'd do it in a player list which was actually familiar with my meta. there'd be no reason to doing it if no one would even come to the realization that it's not something I would do. I had to explicitly bring it up in order to get you to notice it, and the only player who started this game who has seen me as scum is Ranger.

[pieguyn]

I would say flip Katsuki, lynch itle. I thought about offering to flip myself, but I do not trust in the slightest that the scum team isn't hoping to take advantage of people being paranoid of me by changing my color and hoping I get color flipped, and if this is what is happening it wouldn't even point back to anyone since anyone could have decided to do this.

[pieguyn]

Do you think scum!itle would intentionally do the same thing that got his partner lynched?
Do you think, if it's just a "too busy to keep up in all his games" thing (and I know he does have a habit of signing up for more games than he can handle), he would put more effort into his town games and less into his scum games?

I don't think his not-doing-anything-ness is an intentional strategy. it's more a general feeling that there's a huge lack of anything rather than some specific piece of evidence making me think he's a player who is inclined to be more active as town than scum, although I have modded a game where he was town and he definitely seemed to be doing things in that game. (if you want to see, http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=64043&f=54 )

Why do you townread Bella?

no specific reason, I generally think she's looked town on a body of work level and I've had no issue with any of her posts.

I'm much more interested in why people are reading her as scum.

[pieguyn]

would you support a Katsuki lynch?

[pieguyn]

I'm lynching you, tbg, bella.

you won't ever lynch me since your read on me is really horrible and the majority of this game correctly reads me as town, and I'm not lynching bella. if you don't want to see itle lynched, then make a push that will actually go somewhere.

/shrug

[pieguyn]

this is so bad

why the turnaround?

1081 read as somewhat over-the-top, and like something you'd be more likely to say as scum keeping up appearances.

[pieguyn]

I mostly thought you were town because of earlier where you were clearly so disengaged with the game you had to ask me how the paint mechanic worked, but 1081 seems to imply you were relatively seriously invested in the lala lynch, which makes me suspect that the disengagement was feigned.

[pieguyn]

my thinking was that if lala's push on you affected you that strongly, you would have had more conviction about the lynch when it was happening (you called her scum and laid out reasoning for it, but there was no bloodlust, for lack of a better word) - and to the contrary, if you were as apathetic as you were when pushing the lynch, it doesn't make sense to come in the next day and say something like "I'm sad, I felt pretty sure she was scum".

I don't have any problem with that explanation, though, since I seem to have misinterpreted your post. (especially if you're planning on sheeping me. /innocent smile)

[pieguyn]

I actually feel pretty sure Katsuki is town after hearing that. and I feel kind of sad (which is not something I thought I'd say after reading a Katsuki post, _ever_).

I might just be really fucking stupid, but I don't think I am.

I honestly have no idea who to even flip at this point. I don't want to flip myself and I'd much rather lynch than flip itle.

[pieguyn]

Can we quick flip itle

I would lynch him even on a blue flip, tbh, so I have no idea what flipping him would accomplish.

[pieguyn]

I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE FUCKING WORD ABOUT WHY ITLE IS SCUM BESIDES FOR LURK.

IF ANOTHER PERSON SAYS HE'S SCUM WITH NO CASE THEY ARE GETTING LYNCHED, TY.

POE.

[pieguyn]

if we flip Katsuki, or if we flip me, I want a mass agreement that we take a red flip as null. Katsuki is town, and I do not want to see people (RC) going "LELEL RED FLIP AUTOLYNCH". if we agree on this, I'm fine with either.

[pieguyn]

vote: pieguyn

[pieguyn]

welp, kraska is town.

[pieguyn]

I don't really mind quick flips starting from here, although I want to point out that if we don't pick someone "obvious" per se, we can probably trust a red flip. I don't particularly feel the same way if we get a blue flip, cos if I was scum here and the painting mechanic functions in the same way it did last game I would be painting one of us blue immediately.

Could you explain this for those of us who aren't familiar with the mechanics?

with the exception of TBG who claimed miller, all town start the game as blue and all scum start the game as red. in the last game, scum had a factional ability they could use each night to paint a player another color (1-shot blue, infinite-shot a bunch of other colors) and I'm assuming it works in the same or in a very similar way here. right now we're voting to flip someone's color.

there are two possibilities that I think are somewhat likely for what scum might have done last night and those are painting one of themselves blue (in essence making one of them a godfather against the flip phase) or painting a target red who they thought we would flip today (hoping we'd incorrectly assume they were scum for it). hence why I don't want to flip someone "obvious" and why I wouldn't trust a blue flip - neither of these would have been problems D1 because scum wouldn't have had a chance to change anyone's color yet.

Yeah I don't wanna lose time working out if someone is lying, if someone flips a colour they weren't expecting....can scum paint people red as well as blue?

Like, I feel like we have scumspects whatever they flip? Like Zulfy being adamant dwlee town told over nothing.

last game was, scum had infinite shot of a bunch of colors (which included red, and other colors like green, orange, purple, black, etc.) and 1 shot of blue. blue flips will likely be entirely reliable if we happen to find scum who flips blue.

I guess with that in mind, it would make more sense to go for blue flips over red flips?

should be here, let me know if anything is unclear about it.

[pieguyn]

{Nahdia, S_S, TBG}

this feels really fucking off, but I'm nowhere near stable enough right now to figure out where. I'll think about it more in probably a few days.

[pieguyn]

it could be faked, but it's the kind of thing that seems so ridiculous to even think to fake. plus, I think roles that have to do with the paint color changing are more likely to be town roles in this setup, since there's no real use for them as scum (a quick look at the original setup supports this).

[pieguyn]

I'm mostly just ignoring your dick-waving, ftr.

[pieguyn]

I also have a really underhanded reason for thinking the Spiffeh slot could be scum that I probably will not elaborate on unless it is convenient for me.

so I can explain this now.

1. Spiffeh was playing in this game concurrently with this scum game, where he was putting in a lot of effort: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=66816
2. Spiffeh apparently hates playing scum and finds it really stressful;
3. Spiffeh replaced out of this game, but as far as I can tell is active on site.

I think there's at least some chance what we saw here was him being unable to keep up with two scum games at once. I don't know how to feel about this, but it's what I think. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[pieguyn]

it's 4-3 me/Katsuki.

we're flipping me today, because Katsuki is town and I would prefer not to have everyone in the game being like "lel pie might be scum" despite it being fairly obvious that I'm not scum any longer.

[pieguyn]

@dwlee: do you disagree that it's unlikely kraska's entrance was faked? if not, what are your reads on S_S and TBG?

[pieguyn]

No fucking way. If scum has a blue colour you received it.

here's a question, btw: if I was scum and I did this, why isn't my partner all over my wagon trying to push it through?

from a theoretical standpoint, the only possibility I can think of is a scenario where I wouldn't care when I'd get flipped as long as it happens sometime, but that seems awkward and bad to me since I wouldn't gain any cred from it; if me/my partner waited until tomorrow to flip me at this point we'd just have everyone saying "it's obvious we'd flip pie today, they probably just painted her blue last night" and not giving the slightest fuck.

actually now that I think about it I feel pretty sure at this point in time that my flip is still blue, for this exact reason: if scum had painted me red, they would be jumping all over it because me coming up as red and making everyone panic would be fucking amazing for them. I suppose it could be some configuration like {Nahdia, TBG} and they just fail, but I don't get the impression either is seriously invested in flipping me.

[pieguyn]

it is possible, town town

we seem to disagree on just about all of our reads.

can you explain in more depth why you think TBG is town? his recent treatment of RC reads a lot like a smear campaign to me, and it's a kind of thought process I think would be more likely coming from scum knowing RC is town and not realizing it's an incredibly likely fake claim as a result. the fact he hasn't really been scum hunting at all recently supports it.

[pieguyn]

Pie's pushy no bullshit attitude feels contrived to me especially early on in the game

.....................

I cannot _wait_ to hear why exactly you take issue with me playing seriously and actually attempting to drive the game forward. how the fuck do you think the game is played?