Mini 1802: Paint Mafia Sequel - Game Over!

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Hey everyone! Started reading this thread overnight. Should be fully caught up soon.

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Alright, caught up. (I replaced Bellaphant by the way).

Pieguy is the only townread I feel completely confident about. I can't see the D1 push on Aristo as a bus precisely because of how hard it would be to endgame as scum with a D1 bus. Before Pie puished Aristo, there was no pressure on him and I don't think he'd have been lynched in the near future. Zulfy can probably go in that same category and my read here mostly centered around his push on Nahdia and insistence that she slipped which while I don't agree with, I'm convinced he actually believed in it.

Nahdia is my biggest scumread. This stems from how she pushed back on Zulfy after he pushed her. The "never unvoting" reaction (Post 639) is way overblown and reads as a) a convenient push on someone using a tell that no one agreed with, and b) distracting from the Aristo lynch. Her latest posts have simply been tunneling Katsuki for the red flip. I hate both of the major pushes she made this game as they are so easy and superficial (Zulfy used a poor tell so he's scum, Katsuki flipped red so he's scum) and they lack any sort of in-depth thinking or attempt to read between the lines.

Something_smart is another candidate for scum. He spent nearly the entirety of the game going back and forth with Pie even after conceding that his reasoning was weak. I'm trying to decide whether he's misguided town or just scum hoping to generate content by attacking obvious town and hoping that people will townread him for it. I'm leaning towards the latter as he has very little content outside of his back nad forth. Townread on Nahdia in Post 995 is also very telling as he's using the blue flip as part of the reason to townread her. But then says that goes away if she's partnered with Pie. Except Pie was one of his stronger scumreads so this shouldn't hold much water. I didn't like the Zulfy scumread either as it's based on the same shoehorned points Nahdia was pushing about how the "tell" he used was non-existent and such.

I'm torn on Katsuki. I don't like the pushes on him and I'm going to verify if there's anything to Pie's insistence that this is his towngame so I'll circle back to this later. I need to go through TSQ's posting again as I only skimmed through the first twenty pages which I'll need to read in detail.

Kraska is more likely town than not. Her entrance seemed ridiculously genuine and I doubt scum would fake that the moment they entered into the game but I have a bad feeling about his setting up Katsuki to be lynched after a TBG townflip. If Katsuki is town, that needs to be re-evaluated.

I don't have a read on dwlee's posts by themselves. I wanted to see why he was widely townread and found beeboy's replace out post. I agree for the most part that it looks town but it's a read I need to investigate more before I can set it aside. Pie and Zulfy are the only ones I'm not second guessing myself on. Would love to hear other's opinions about my thoughts so far. I'll update once I get through the first twenty pages and I want to read through Katsuki's older games to see if there's anything that's a slam dunk.

I'd be voting Nahdia but it seems we're in the color flipping stage. I think it's too far into the game to trust that the flips haven't been manipulated with so I don't really care who is flipped or what they flipped. I suggest getting this over with quickly. I'll vote wherever there's concensus. I'm much more interested in hearing comments on my reads.

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It's pretty damn hilarious that you guys are going to lynch the second blue flip in the game but if you want to be so pants-on-head stupid then I won't stop you. Not worth my effort.

You are acting like the blue flip makes it very likely that you are town. But it doesn't. This is a 13 player game so we can expect 3 scum. Aristo was lynched D1. That means two scum and the first thing scum would want to do in this setup is paint themselves. That's pretty much a 50-50 shot that you painted yourself blue.

Why the premature ATE? No one except me and Pie suspected you and that's hardly enough for a lynch but you are acting like you want us to believe it's already a foregone conclusion.

now I get to figure out if he's going for this on purpose, or if it's an artifact of the fact that we approach games in practically the exact same way.

/paranoia

Sort of expected this based on our last game. I'm pretty amused although I want to see how the dynamics work out with both of us as town.

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ate because i'm done trying to tell people in this game who scum are.

Okay, so help me out here. In your last readslist, you put a huge gap between Katsuki and Zulfy and the rest of the game. Why is Katsuki scum (besides "red flip")? Why is Zulfy scum beyond saying that you scumslipped?

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I actually really like the idea of "lynch Nahdia, if she's town follow her reads until endgame".

Don't think Nahdia is flipping town but if I'm wrong there and we wind up in mylo, I'll re-evaluate all my reads from scratch and that includes Katsuki. I never just sheep someone else's reads although I'm open to discussing them.

Wingman what are your thoughts on UTL's posts?

Like I said, I haven't really read the first twenty or so pages. I read the first two and got bored. I wanted to read the most relevant information first so I checked who got lynched D1, and ISO'd the mod until I found the first vote on Aristo which was TTH's slot around page 22 or so. Then read from there until the end.

for this reason, I think Nahdia + someone else is more likely, with the end goal of leaving me alive to lead an incorrect lynch on S_S and then killing me.

I was thinking about this possibility. I don't think Katsuki or Zulfy are partnered with Nahdia which leaves just Smart, dwlee, or kraska as a potential partner. Kraska's insistence on lynching Katsuki first could point to a Nahdia partner as a Nahdia scumflip pretty much narrows it down to just her and Smart given the universal townreads on dwlee which is a loss. But if she gets that Katsuki mislynch in, she has a chance in mylo after Nahdia's lynch.

I haven't yet discounted a Smart/Nahdia team though. The way Smart said that he could see Nahdia on a team with you but then put her in "lean town" doesn't make sense to me given he was pretty confident you were scum. If he was, then he'd be legitimately considering that possibility rather than give off the air "I don't see Nahdia-scum unless partnered with Pie" when in his mind Pie has a high chance of being scum.

I do think a Nahdia/Smart team killing you makes sense over TTH. On the other hand, killing someone that suspects both of them over a conftown is dangerous territory as that means TTH would rethink her reads. The other reason I don't want to dismiss Smart as town is that despite TTH defending him early on, she was later questioning that read (Post 1429) and thought she was wrong about my slot being scum (Post 1478). That makes sense as a subtler kill on someone just about to catch them as opposed to you who were blatantly pushing him and being pushed by him. Killing you means he has to make up a new scumread. TTH's qualifier that she doesn't want Smart to be "today's" lynch is another point where I think Smart could have realized that he couldn't count on TTH continuing to defend him in the following days after she sees that she was wrong on TBG. It's one of those subtle word-choice indicators I tend to look for when I'm scum to figure out who's just about to turn around on me or my teammates.

I think given the gamestate, scum were banking on a mislynch of my slot since it was one of the few still up in the air. But Smart hasn't really pushed here. Kraska has. I haven't decided what that means yet.

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I'm mostly waiting for Chaos to catch up to see if he changes my mind about Nahdia. We can get a color flip done in the meantime. I'm fine flipping whoever you want.

VOTE: dwlee

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@Zulfy;

on your Post 1277, how did you get to Nahdia and dwlee being conf-town? The last you mentioned dwlee was in Post 1047 where you say he townslipped. Mind going over that for me? On your read on Nahdia, what do you think of my point that there's a 50-50 shot that scum colored themselves blue on the first night?

@kraska;

1) On your Post 1632, I had Zulfy as fairly town for his push on Nahdia for that "scumslip" coming across like he believes it and I agree with him that Nahdia pushing back on him was scummy. I'm not sure why he's taking a blue flip a 100% indicator of towniness though given he is calling a previous scumread "confirmed town" so I need more explanation on that end.

2) On your Post 1648, how are you saying that Smart had fluidity in reads? He was pushing Pie since the point he replaced in. When Pie pointed out that bussing Aristo makes no sense, Smart agreed with it but then continued pushing Pie. That does show him unable to have fluid reads and I don't get your characterization of him as "

did not reek of restrained or cornered scum unable to fake fluidity of reads.

"

3) Can you explain how you are so confident that TBG was "too scummy to be scum" but don't apply the same standards to TSQ? I didn't read this in depth but I was following Pick Your Power 6: The Revival where Pie was suspecting TSQ's slot which is where I think the meta was coming from. What makes TSQ and TBG different in your mind?

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Nahdia (Chaos) and Smart (iraonavp) is best guess as well. Eagerly awaiting content from both of these slots.

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Not seeing how that's a townslip. How does dwlee attract attention by saying that he was visited by Ranger? It's just a factual statement that says nothing about dwlee's alignment.

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@Chaos, how much of the thread have you read at the time of your Post 1695?

Iraonavp pushing the obvious lynch of the day outside of him/Chaos actually looks worse than Chaos's indecision about Katsuki. It's so unlikely he replaced into a nearly 70 page game and that's the first push he's making. Will wait till they finish up though.

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Because you said you were going to look back at interactions with Aristo. Pie was pretty much the reason Aristo was lynched so if you already read that, I figured you'd have thoughts about it. Kraska is an odd player to have as one of your strongest townreads. Elaborate?

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I don't know why scum would color dwlee purple. From the last game, it seems like they had a limited shot of blue paint and infinite of other colors.

You have one charge of blue paint and infinite charges of red, green, orange, yellow, black, white and purple.

Ideally, they'd color one of themselves blue, the other team members in one of the other colors, and townies red. It seems counter-intuitive to put purple paint on a townie (unless they want us to come to the conclusion that I just did). Purple is actually incriminating than Red so I need to do a closer review of dwlee and his predecessors. The general consensus of writing him off as town for the beeboy replace-out may be flawed.

Also, want to take a quick look at how town reacted to various colors in the previous game. If anyone here actually read or followed that game, I'd appreciate you weighing in.

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Looked through beeboy's ISO. He starts with a color vote for Ranger and then switches to UTL (Zulfy's slot). Hesitates a lot around confirming hiplop (Kraska's slot) because of suspicion of a godfather. Then switches to TSQ. In response to TSQ's Post 160, he replaces out. Then we have dwlee replacing in. The one thing this confirms for me is that Katsuki/dwlee definitely aren't a team but I wouldn't weigh the replace out as more alignment-indicative than the purple flip which I'll come to in a minute.

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For Nahdia/dwlee to be that team, they would have had to use the blue paint on Nahdia N1, the red paint on Katsuki N2, and the purple paint on dwlee N3. The first part makes sense as they could see Nahdia being the more likely one to be flipped due to Aristo interactions so it's a no brainer to use up their blue shot there. I'm a little confused about why they would go for Katsuki here as opposed to just paint dwlee N2. Covering themselves first should be the top priority. The only way I could see it happening is if they expected that Katsuki would flip soon or that dwlee is unlikely to be flipped until late game.

Dwlee's last posts looking like caught scum trolling and Chaos completely ignoring the result does make me think that that's the team though.

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Before the flip, I was pretty sure it was Chaos(Nahdia) and iraonavp(Smart) but Chaos's vote makes the most sense if he's trying to use earlier suspicion of Smart to detract attention there as opposed to just voting a buddy and letting town lynch dwlee.

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VOTE: ChaosOmega

I could switch to dwlee I suppose but I really want to flip Nahdia's slot before we get to mylo. It was the one solid scumread I had replacing in.

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Kraska is definitely town for this replace out. It seems like she was genuinely offended for her play being called bad. If she were scum, she'd just be happy with being called bad town and ride that to a win and have the last laugh. Katsuki needs to switch over to Chaos.

If it isn't super-obvious to everyone already, Chaos came into the game being pretty sure kraska is town (Post 1695) and saying that Kraska's posts have feelings similar to his (Post 1709). Then he puts her at the top of his list of townreads (Post 1760). But once kraska suspects him, he turns around and votes her.

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Welcome Sotty. Do you mind elaborating on your Chaos/Nahdia townreads? Chaos has pretty much disappeared and dwlee is posting all over the site while avoiding this game, not to mention that once he flipped purple and suspicion turned towards him, his response felt a lot like scum admitting it was game over (Post 1757, Post 1758) rather than addressing any of the arguments that were made in the past couple of pages. Chaos deflecting from dwlee also fits in with that.

Nahdia's play around the Aristophanes lynch doesn't sit well with me, nor does their push on Zulfy around that time. If there's one thing I'd like you to comment on, it's Zulfy's and Nahdia's play starting around Post 614 keeping in mind that Aristophanes was at L-1 at the time and ending with the lynch on Aristo at Post 733. Even not considering the Aristo wagon, when I see an above-average player (Nahdia certainly looked like it) pushing hard on a player like Zulfy who was using weak tells, I find it to be strongly indicative of scum. Rather than try and understand whether Zulfy actually believed what he was saying, Nahdia was milking his weak push for everything it was worth.

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I was preventing kraska from chaining mislynches backwards
vote tags are hard on phone

This makes zero sense if you are town unless you are asserting that kraska (now Sotty7) is scum with Chaos and bussing him. You said:

You're setting up mislynches by going "Chaos is scum with dwlee, so let's lynch chaos and then dwlee" because "Let's lynch dwlee and then chaos" doesn't work because when I flip town there is no case for associatives.

But if that were the case, why in the world wouldn't you help kraska bus and then argue that you are town instead of voting yourself and flipping town so that there's "no case" on Chaos who in this scenario would be scum?

And if you thought Chaos was town, then kraska's chain-lynching falls apart and the whole argument is irrelevant. Tl;dr, your argument only works if Chaos is scum and kraska is bussing but if that's what you thought, voting yourself is the most ridiculous move ever.

How is it that half the playerlist doesn't see this?

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Like, this argument gives away that dwlee is scum who knows that Chaos is scum and is afraid of being chain-lynched after his partner and the game ending. He is basically setting up to argue that kraska's slot is scum with Chaos after Chaos flips scum. Holy cow, this is not even funny.

Sotty, if you really don't see what's going on here, I'll try and explain in more detail why I was scumreading Nahdia but I need to leave so this will be tonight.

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Chaos's townflip just shattered my impression of the gamestate and I'm rethinking it from scratch. For now -

VOTE: Iraonavp

That L-1 for the color flip.

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Irao is it ira ona vp, irao nav p, or iraona vp?

It's iraon a v p.

Curious what this means.

VOTE: No lynch

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I'm fine flipping me. The timing of kraska's replace out comes pretty close to confirming her alignment. As I mentioned, she replaced out right after Pieguyn called her a bad player but town so if she was scum, I can't see her being offended at that. I think it's more likely she would have rode it out as scum to prove Pie wrong.

VOTE: Wingback

From my POV, I see scum as likely between {Katsuki, iraonavp, dwlee} so I'm going to look over all three possibilities in the coming few days.

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@Sotty, I don't know about Katsuki but you are wrong on me at least so you need to fix that read if we're going to win. Fairly confident you are town here so if you have any questions for me, I'd happy to make my thought-processes more transparent.

For quick reference, I'll list out who replaced who and the scumteam possibilities:

1. Katsuki(TSQ) - iraonavp(Smart/Spiffeh)
2. Katsuki(TSQ) - dwlee(beeboy)
3. dwlee(beeboy) - iraonavp(Smart/Spiffeh)

Including Sotty7 for completeness:

4. Sotty7(kraska/itlepip/dominator/hiplop) - Katsuki(TSQ)
5. Sotty7(kraska/itlepip/dominator/hiplop) - iraonavp(Smart/Spiffeh)
6 .Sotty7(kraska/itlepip/dominator/hiplop) - dwlee(beeboy)

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Katsuki-dwlee

- See this as pretty unlikely. Beeboy voted to flip TSQ on D1 Post 113 and went to extent of pushing harder on the flip Post 145. Given TSQ(Kats) was going to flip red, I don't get why beeboy would push for his flip on D1 where a red flip would be rather incriminating. Found TSQ's response in Post 160 rather overblown. Leaning towards it being scum who was afraid of being caught by town rather than scum being annoyed at a bus or just town. In fact, I think town would be pretty happy to be flipped D1 and confirmed so I don't know what pissed him off so much that he needed to replace out. dwlee definitely voted outside of Katsuki's slot (nina -> ducks -> nina) so this is not a super-strong associative. Do have a question for dwlee though - you say that TSQ/Katsuki are a scumlean because your predecessor was heavily scumreading TSQ. If you are someone that takes predecessor's actions into account, why did you never vote to paint-flip the Katsuki slot on D1? Post 634 would be a rather odd switch if it was a dwlee/Katsuki/Aristo team given he'd be stating a townread on a partner who had a wagon and bussing the other which is just odd interaction. I could see him potentially going for a town-Katsuki if he senses that the momentum on Aristo was declining. He's also pretty intent on flipping Katsuki D4 given weak reasoning "sheeping Nahdia" which I don't see as partner-ish.

Katsuki-iraonavp

- Based on D1 posting, Spiffeh started a counter to the TSQ paint-wagon on Nahdia and later flipped to Nina in Post 294. Outlines weak suspicion of Katsuki (Post 449) which doesn't lead anywhere. Votes Nahdia for the color flip despite saying that he's townreading them. Most of something_smart's content on replacing in is focused on Pieguyn but his first mention of Katsuki is in his readslist in Post 995 where he puts him as null-scum. Votes Katsuki for the paint-flip in Post 1161 but given Katsuki didn't seem bothered by the flip, I don't rule out potential scum motive for the scumteam to flip him. Post 1302 is a very interesting post given he's responding to TBG and I think TBG made a few strong points here given that Smart had Katsuki as a backpocket scumread but the red flip didn't make him more confident about it whereas if a scumread flipped red, it would make more sense for town to double-down. I also don't like the pre-flip associatives of Pie/Katsuki. They fit into the mold of what I see from scum tying their partners to townies, and the very evasive response in Post 1537 fits in well with scum-motive. I find iraonavp's suspicion of Katsuki (he flipped red) to be quite simplistic and actually takes away from my theory that they are partners. See scum being much more likely to attack town based on a "factual" point that's concrete and defendable. I'm somewhat put off that almost every post he made has been to conf-bias himself that Katsuki was scum (dwlee being painted making it more likely that Kats was not, Zulfy being painted making it more likely that Kats wasn't). I'm undecided on whether it's a hardcore bus (especially given late-game is the time when scum tend to bus most often) or confident town, or scum pushing a mislynch. Claiming that Katsuki was being bussed by Nahdia strikes me as somewhat of a stretch. From Katsuki's end, the only interactions I've seen was not wanting to lynch Spiffeh, but wanting to flip him on D2 which if they are partners, ira's slot would have been painted and Kats would be red. Not sure what to make of Post 1844.

dwlee-iraonavp

- The only mentions Spiffeh made of dwlee is to call him town. dwlee is fairly high up in Smart's readslist in Post 995 and I don't see anything indicative either way. "Lean town" is a fairly common place to put a partner. But Post 1015 where Smart is super-focused on getting TBG to let go of a "townslip" from dwlee reads more like he's annoyed that a townie is correctly reading another. While I could see the possibility of him setting up TBG to fall if dwlee flips scum, I think it's less likely that just not wanting town to confirm each other unnecessarily. The comment on dwlee townslip in Post 1049 could go either way but I think Post 1411 is slightly more likely to be partner interaction between dwlee/Smart. Don't like the weak reasoning for townreading dwlee in Post 1749 and when it seemed like dwlee was a likely lynch, iraonavp switches from the Katsuki tunneling and has Nahdia/Chaos as the top suspect, so this could point to a dwlee partner.

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In summary, I didn't get much out of Katsuki/TSQ and most of their interactions have been with flipped town. I see the Katsuki/Iraonavp pairing as the most likely one, with Katsuki/dwlee, not something I entirely rule out. Dwlee/Iraonavp seems like the least likely pairing. Going to look at individual actions now and interactions with Aristophanes.