Micro 622: Queen Mafia GAME OVER

[BNL]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

You know why.

[BNL]

I'm going to switch to
UNVOTE: GulityLion
VOTE: Elyse
as I feel that her posting has been fake.

Elyse ISO:

LET'S GO

VOTE: Elyse

Your Avatar irritates me.

??? I hadn't posted at that point.

VOTE: Iprobablysuck

OMGUS + stupid username

Also I can't be the only one who thought the theme was like, Queens, as in rulers and not the band

Her first post, RVS on Ips. Nothing wrong by itself, but:

Vote him

This was in the context of several people expressing suspicion of Ips, but none voting, asking them to vote. Considering that her vote on Ips wasn't serious, she wasn't really scumreading Ips, so encouraging the Ips wagon seems fake.

Because I think pressure will be useful in reading him

This reasoning for the wagon encouragement feels made up.

[BNL]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

You know why.

Cause he has Guilty in his name?

It's because in our last game together both of us were town, and GL deathtunnelled me like crazy.

[BNL]

Bullet thoughts on duppin?

Leaning town, from your conversation with him.

[BNL]

{TellTaleHeart, Fire Assassin}
{duppin}
{Aristophanes, Iprobablysuck, GuiltyLion}
{Postie}
{Elyse}

[BNL]

My townread on Fire comes from post 96. I liked his case on Elyse.

[BNL]

I probably didn't explain 102 properly. I was townreading Fire for his case on Elyse, but I didn't agree with the case. I was scumreading Elyse for other reasons.

[BNL]

Unsure of Elyse's recent posting, but my other scumread has grown, enough to warrant a change of vote.
UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: Postie

[BNL]

In other news, my vote is now serious.

Why?

I am also not seeing it

These were some posts that I didn't like, and it made me put her in my lean scum category.

I'm guessing FA is going to say I'm scum with Aris for saying that FA is looked upon favorably for the Aris wagon which is stupid since I obviously meant that he's at the forefront of the Aris push. He looks good for scumhunting and stuff. And I'm also scumreading Aris, so if you incorrectly interpreted it as me saying he'll look good because Aris is flipping scum, that's in line with my reads.

If it's something else then idk lol.

Its word choices and tone.
First off lets show case it:

. Postie's FA suspicion just doesn't seem like something scum

would do right now.

This rings of awareness of what scum is likely to do in a certain scenario and words "right now" bring attention that they could act in this way, but aren't doing it yet.

Aris is getting run up, there's some heat on me, FA is probably getting looked upon favorably because of the Aris wagon.

Hyper awareness of the situation. Scum are usually the most aware players of scenarios.

It'd be a weird time for him to switch focus onto FA under no pressure as scum. It just feels genuine.

Timing is key in this section. The idea is that they are aware of what will and won't look good for scum to do in certain scenarios at certain moments in time. Elyse is looking at the game in the perspective as a scum player. They are not looking at it from the perspective of it in the terms they are town and how scum would act, but what they would personally do. This is what I am seeing.

Wow this is so bad.
Fire, please exlpain in detail why

paying attention to the game

is scummy.

Earlier on, Postie expressed suspicion on me/Fire being the scumteam. Then she calls the quoted post horrible. And yet she says nothing about me townreading Fire based off this? Someone genuinely scumhunting will also talk about my townread on Fire.

[BNL]

BNL tell me about why IPS is null for you?

@BNL

It's mainly because he's new, and this makes me have a tendency to mark what he does as NAI. I'm planning to hold off reading him until after a while (~7 days into D1).

[BNL]

The urge to vote BNL just so he responds to me in a way that doesn't seem like he is talking to someone not there.
Its testing me.

What do you want me to respond to?

[BNL]

Postie, can you explain your townread on TTH?

[BNL]

Never mind, Postie is town. Back to Elyse~

UNVOTE: Postie
VOTE: Elyse

[BNL]

It's mainly because he's new, and this makes me have a tendency to mark what he does as NAI. I'm planning to hold off reading him until after a while (~7 days into D1).

I don't think this is necessarily a scummy thing, but I also don't see how it's useful. Can you just give me some thoughts about his original Elyse push or his switch to Fire Assassin?

What are you referring to that isn't useful?

I found 67 unnatural due to the vote attached. He was already scumreading Elyse, so why only vote her then? Can't tell if the "was going to do that earlier" part is genuine. Though I do know that newbies do this in general (check Asphodel's h_a case in recently completed Mini 1791), so doubting its scumminess.

I didn't agree with 149 that Fire's 147 was "giving up". Though it just seemed like he didn't understand that it was a joke.

[BNL]

The reason I have Postie as town is as follows:

Could you elaborate?

It just feels forced somehow idk I'm finding it hard to explain.

This is town.

Postie, can you explain your townread on TTH?

It's a meta read that I'm probably 307% unqualified to make.

I like her response to my question (for not just the quoted post but also the stretch of her posts after). It's in line with my reasoning for my townread on TTH (which I have been hiding for this): She has a weak scumgame, and AtEs as scum, which I'm not seeing here. What further cements this as genuine is the timing of her townread on TTH:

Oh good TTH is town.

Which is immediately after the game which the meta was taken from had ended.

And I've decided that these townpoints override my earlier scumpoints on her.

[BNL]

The reason I went back to Elyse is that she's now my strongest scumread, after I had realised Postie is town. My scumread on her had weakened from early game as I wasn't sure of her recent posts (I could see them from both alignments), but after I had Postie as town Elyse became my only scumread, so I voted there.

[BNL]

and hasn't even addressed the accusations against him regarding his awful sheeping of FA's "case".

This is wrong by the way.

I probably didn't explain 102 properly. I was townreading Fire for his case on Elyse, but I didn't agree with the case. I was scumreading Elyse for other reasons.

[BNL]

Duppin, you're still on your RVS vote. Are you scumreading Postie, and if so, why?

[BNL]

Wow nice catch. Fire did the same thing as me but only I'm scum for it.

Who was this directed to? The only person who posted between this and your previous post is duppin, but I didn't see him mention any scumread on you in those two posts.

[BNL]

My townread on Fire comes from post 96. I liked his case on Elyse.

lol

That case is shit.

More deep, epic insight from the goddess of Mafia.

Other than the fact it's against you, why is the case shit?

It's literally "Elyse is aware of what's going on in this game and is looking at it from a perspective of 'what scum would do'". No shit. That's how I scumhunt.

@TTH
Do you think Postie is buddying me?

No you didn't.

You're saying that I'm scum for looking at the game from a scum perspective...this is how you scumhunt. You are doing it too by saying that scum would look through the game from a scum perspective. Your case is one of the worst I've ever seen on this site and that's saying something.

I don't know if you're really misguided or scum though. Bullet sheeping you is awful as well and I have taken note of that.

I've pointed out the flaws in the case. You're scumreading me for thinking from a scum perspective to scumhunt. That is terrible. There's no way around it. I don't understand how you actually think that is it a legitimate case.

If it weren't for Bullet's sheep I would be scumreading you, but I think he could be trying to take advantage of you and pass the blame should I ever flip.

There were already two votes on me so there's motivation right there to fabricate a case on someone with an already established wagon.

Unlesss you can do good preflip associations, they are usually not good in my experience.

Lol

@FA
Now you're just being ridiculous. That's like saying "why don't scum claim scum because no one would expect them to do that!" There comes a point where certain patterns can be attributed to scum and town alike. I don't see two scum in a nine player game sheeping one another this early on with a terrible case to boot.

Wow nice catch. Fire did the same thing as me but only I'm scum for it.

So these were the posts that I said I was unsure about. The reasons I didn't like them is because of the emotion present in these posts, but I thought these could be town emotion or scum emotion, hence why I was unsure. But I'm currently leaning scum emotion.

[BNL]

Gut, and the last time I saw someone use emotion defensively, they were scum.

[BNL]

3)

I'm going to switch to
UNVOTE: GulityLion
VOTE: Elyse
as I feel that her posting has been fake.

Unsure of Elyse's recent posting, but my other scumread has grown, enough to warrant a change of vote.
UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: Postie

Never mind, Postie is town. Back to Elyse~

UNVOTE: Postie
VOTE: Elyse

These are his flip flops. He wears them to the beach.
His vote on Postie and subsequent unvote occurred quite close together. I see no posts from Elyse that should have had him doubting his scumread if it were genuine, and his reasoning for the Postie vote in 156 is weak in itself.

@BNL

, what made you reconsider your Elyse vote in both occasions? She didn't post between the unvote, where you were unsure of her, and the revote, where she was a scumread again. What about Postie's posts in that timeframe convinced you she's town?

I explained my Postie townread in 193.
Tell me why you said 152 is doubting my Elyse read? I just said that wasn't sure of her posting.

[BNL]

I read his ISO from that game, and though I agree those posts are bad, he was also overwhelmed there, making it hard to get a read of his overall play. From this game though, I'd say we have scum.

What?

[BNL]

Town: Postie, Fire Assassin, TTH
Null: Duppin, GL, Wingback (where is he?)
Scum: Elyse, Aristophanes

[BNL]

but what about your townread on Elyse?

I think she's town but it's more of a gut thing at the moment. I just get weird protesty vibes from her posts that feel town somehow.

^

Your scumread on BNL?

51 was bad. BNL is bad a lot but that post is like scum-bad.
Just finished a marathon game where he was scum and his reasoning was similarly bad so I'm no longer willing to give him the benefit of the doubt right now.

VOTE: BulletNLynchproof

Your change from that to GL?

His 171 felt like contrived garbage.

So you unvoted me to give me the "benefit of the doubt", but here were the posts I made before you unvoted me:

Never mind, Postie is town. Back to Elyse~

UNVOTE: Postie
VOTE: Elyse

It's mainly because he's new, and this makes me have a tendency to mark what he does as NAI. I'm planning to hold off reading him until after a while (~7 days into D1).

I don't think this is necessarily a scummy thing, but I also don't see how it's useful. Can you just give me some thoughts about his original Elyse push or his switch to Fire Assassin?

What are you referring to that isn't useful?

I found 67 unnatural due to the vote attached. He was already scumreading Elyse, so why only vote her then? Can't tell if the "was going to do that earlier" part is genuine. Though I do know that newbies do this in general (check Asphodel's h_a case in recently completed Mini 1791), so doubting its scumminess.

I didn't agree with 149 that Fire's 147 was "giving up". Though it just seemed like he didn't understand that it was a joke.

Can you tell me what's that about "benefit of the doubt"?

Not feeling my BNL vote any more.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

[BNL]

GuiltyLion, you might want to know that "What many people perceive of BNL to be scummy isn't actually scummy" is not a valid reason to townread me.

[BNL]

I explained my Postie townread in 193.
Tell me why you said 152 is doubting my Elyse read? I just said that wasn't sure of her posting.

I don't know how I missed that post. The subsequent ones explain away most of my I'll feelings too. And the tone of them is towny. I'm sorry I missed them!
UNVOTE:

239 pings me so hard. The overjustified, apologetic unvote of Bullet, the slight shade at Postie, the ridiculous defense of Bullet at the end when you were voting him like two posts earlier.

That was such an awkward and complete backoff of Bullet for "towny toned posts that you missed". Like are you even reading the game? You've "missed" a crazy amount of posts.

I wouldn't be surprised with a Bullet/Aris scumteam.

I actually have to agree with Elyse that Ari "missing" that many posts is suspicious. And his followed townread on my next posts seem really lazy. Though I don't really understand the scum motivation behind leaving my wagon at L-2.

[BNL]

One thing I disagree with though is Postie having a weak scumgame. The first game I played with her (Word Sneak 2) I was regained with a tale of her greatness and manipulative play as scum. I believe she was Nommed for a Scummy because of it. What makes you day her scum play is weak!?

I was referring to TTH having a weak scum game, not Postie.

[BNL]

I'm honestly not sure what to think of this post. You agree that this does not seem like his townplay, so where exactly are you going with this?

I agree but I see little reason to suppose this is scum!Aristo as opposed to just different!Aristo.

I still don't get the point. It sounds like you're trying to discourage me from voting on Aristo for no apparent reason. I honestly don't think your post makes much sense, so I ask you gain, what was the point of it?

I am also agreeing with duppin here that Postie seems to be discouraging the Ari wagon subtly... but the Postie/Ari conversation at the top of page 10 definitely doesn't look like scum/scum interactions.

Postie, can you explain what "different Aristo" means?

[BNL]

Duppin can be back to town.

[BNL]

UNVOTE:

I am becoming less sure on Elyse, I feel that my read on her is stale, also, I have more scumreads now.

Keeping an eye on Aristo. Also I'm becoming less sure on Postie, she was my strongest townread but it was only over a few points; many of her recent posts are worrying me.

[BNL]

VOTE: Wingback

I'm not scumreading him or IPS, but I want him to post stuff ASAP. Also I don't really have a better place for my vote now.

[BNL]

but what about your townread on Elyse?

I think she's town but it's more of a gut thing at the moment. I just get weird protesty vibes from her posts that feel town somehow.

^

Your scumread on BNL?

51 was bad. BNL is bad a lot but that post is like scum-bad.
Just finished a marathon game where he was scum and his reasoning was similarly bad so I'm no longer willing to give him the benefit of the doubt right now.

VOTE: BulletNLynchproof

Your change from that to GL?

His 171 felt like contrived garbage.

So you unvoted me to give me the "benefit of the doubt", but here were the posts I made before you unvoted me:

Never mind, Postie is town. Back to Elyse~

UNVOTE: Postie
VOTE: Elyse

It's mainly because he's new, and this makes me have a tendency to mark what he does as NAI. I'm planning to hold off reading him until after a while (~7 days into D1).

I don't think this is necessarily a scummy thing, but I also don't see how it's useful. Can you just give me some thoughts about his original Elyse push or his switch to Fire Assassin?

What are you referring to that isn't useful?

I found 67 unnatural due to the vote attached. He was already scumreading Elyse, so why only vote her then? Can't tell if the "was going to do that earlier" part is genuine. Though I do know that newbies do this in general (check Asphodel's h_a case in recently completed Mini 1791), so doubting its scumminess.

I didn't agree with 149 that Fire's 147 was "giving up". Though it just seemed like he didn't understand that it was a joke.

Can you tell me what's that about "benefit of the doubt"?

Not feeling my BNL vote any more.

VOTE: GuiltyLion

I'm honestly not sure what to think of this post. You agree that this does not seem like his townplay, so where exactly are you going with this?

I agree but I see little reason to suppose this is scum!Aristo as opposed to just different!Aristo.

I still don't get the point. It sounds like you're trying to discourage me from voting on Aristo for no apparent reason. I honestly don't think your post makes much sense, so I ask you gain, what was the point of it?

I am also agreeing with duppin here that Postie seems to be discouraging the Ari wagon subtly... but the Postie/Ari conversation at the top of page 10 definitely doesn't look like scum/scum interactions.

Postie, can you explain what "different Aristo" means?

Postie, please answer my questions.

[BNL]

Duppin can be back to town.

Back to? Does that mean you had a townread on me earlier? If so, could you explain why it changed please.

54
You went back to null because you started being lurky. You are now town again because I liked your weird push on Aristo for not voting Postie.

[BNL]

So I'm also starting to scumread Postie now, mainly because her read progression on Aristo seems really fake. If not for townpoints mentioned in 193 she'd probably be my top scumread.

[BNL]

Regarding Postie read progression on Aristo:

There was mainly not much stance on Aristo until 268, where she mentioned a gut townread on Ari. (Until she explains what "different" Aristo is I can't really call that stance.

279 explanation of read

And in the next post 280, "I'm very much opposed to this wagon", "Unvote please" implies a strong townread on Aristo, which looking at her ISO before that, is garbage.

Her other reason that can justify this is "lack of a counterwagon". I'm currently unsure about this, but will look into this now.

[BNL]

272 also pinged me hard. It read to me as "duppin, I hate your questions and I don't want to answer them; let's talk about something else." Deflection. Something like change of subject (though the question wasn't serious).

[BNL]

Alright-y, I'm about to go to sleep but I am all caught up on reading the thread.
Quick thoughts: I like GuiltyLion for town and I still like my vote on Ari. I would be good with that or a Postie lynch.

Why do you say that you like your vote on Ari even though he was at L-1?

[BNL]

Her other reason that can justify this is "lack of a counterwagon". I'm currently unsure about this, but will look into this now.

The reason I found this suspicious initially is because I thought I saw some contradictions in her posts, but it turned out that I just got confused when she mentioned wagons a lot in different contexts.

I still feel that this could be scum making up reasons for unwillingness to lynch Ari, though. Even if this isn't the case, "also" means that the counterwagon part doesn't contribute to her supposedly strong townread on Ari.

[BNL]

UNVOTE: Wingback
VOTE: Postie

I actually

really

want to move here now, despite earlier strong townpoints on her.

[BNL]

Haven't had time to thoroughly read through what has happened yet, but I don't want Postie at L-1 yet.

[BNL]

UNVOTE: Postie

[BNL]

Sure. But I'm town.

I don't know about that

I was townreading you

But not anymore

I think the scumteam is within this group of four:

Aris, FA, Postie, NBL

But then again the Wingback slot is a mystery so idk

Okay your scum team is in a group of four players, when their is nine players total in the game. You have just slightly below 50% of the player base in your group of possible scum.

I really think that is horrible on every level.

That is actually likely from town though Elyse, so maybe I am wrong.

Huh? Did you just say that Elyse is scum then immediately say that Elyse is town?

[BNL]

So one thing that is bothering me is that Postie is basically OMGUSing everyone on her wagon. Like, her first post after someone else's vote on her is a scumread on that person.

[BNL]

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

[BNL]

Spoiler: Yes

Alright-y, I'm about to go to sleep but I am all caught up on reading the thread.
Quick thoughts: I like GuiltyLion for town and I still like my vote on Ari. I would be good with that or a Postie lynch.

Alright-y, I'm about to go to sleep but I am all caught up on reading the thread.
Quick thoughts: I like GuiltyLion for town and I still like my vote on Ari. I would be good with that or a Postie lynch.

Why do you say that you like your vote on Ari even though he was at L-1?

What's the relevance of him being at L-1 to how much I like the vote?
In Post 206, the cobbled-together, loaded-word filled ("backtracking" "flipflopping") BNL read doesn't give much of an indication that the BNL read is solid or legitimate.

I find it weird that you didn't call Fire out or even mention that he didn't read the post above the one where he asked the question.

[BNL]

Hey guys, wanna wagon BNL? You both have him as null/scum, right?

VOTE: BulletNLynchproof

Idk why, but this post reminds me of this. They feel similar.

I am wary of wagoning Postie, however.

[BNL]

I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon

I don't really agree with this, if Postie is scum then she's sunk and already at the point where anyone defending her is gonna get looked at hard when she scum flips. I'd look at people who aren't literally voting the wagon as within "plausible partner" territory.

You thought it was possible that someone could have hammered then?

[BNL]

Actually you know when I went back and re-ISO'd Aristophanes from College Mafia (where he was scum) vs games I've seen him as town (Word Sneak 2, ⅋, Town of Helen), I wasn't sold on his ISO in this game being as scummy as I had thought previously.

I might prefer a Postie lynch, it feels like all this argument defending her opinion about his wagon being a mislynch is coming from a place of her holding onto a need for projected consistency rather than genuine reasoning. Post 356 is particularly bad, because it requires an implicit assumption (that TTH already pointed out) of TTH thinking Aristo can only be scum with Wingback. I don't think town!Postie would automatically make that assumption, it reads to me as if she's forcing it.

VOTE: Postie
I also didn't like her accusing BNL of opportunism.

I don't like this post and vote, not only is it opportunistic, but I find it overexplained. The first part is bad, looking for a reason to leave Aristo, possibly for him to look more townie. But the reason is lazy.

I am also wary of GL's buddying of me.

If Postie is town GL is someone I definitely want to have a look at.

[BNL]

BNL - I'm not following your question?

I'd say if Postie flips scum, then anyone who wasn't on her L-1 wagon would be possible partners. Wingback, FA, Aristo, Elyse. Which is more than "only Wingback", the thing that you said that I was replying to.

I'm not saying that I would scumread them just for that reason, but saying you're okay with a lynch and then actually voting it to make sure that it happens are two entirely different things.

I was referring to "If she's scum then she's sunk". You thought that her lynch was very likely to happen.

[BNL]

BNL do you want me to write up the whole case I was gonna put on Aristo tending to overexaggerate as scum that I then deleted because I decided I didn't buy it as a solid scumtell? Just because I don't put a bunch of text in the thread doesn't mean my reasoning is lazy.

For the record I think Aristo is still pretty scummy, just not definite scum. Postie is definite scum.

I guess being lazy isn't a problem; I called you out for it in WS2, and you were town there.

I still stand by the fact that the vote was over explained, though.

[BNL]

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

Please give a link to a game where you were able to identify an entire scum team on Day 1 based on associatives.

I'll wait.

What's your point?

[BNL]

And I resent you calling me lazy, I skimmed through like 4 Aristo ISOs

Sorry I meant that it was easy to type that out, which didn't require much thought.

[BNL]

but the Postie/Ari conversation at the top of page 10 definitely doesn't look like scum/scum interactions.

[BNL]

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

What the fuck...

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

Please give a link to a game where you were able to identify an entire scum team on Day 1 based on associatives.

I'll wait.

Though, I must say that I am worried about the Postie wagon. I think almost everyone has basically agreed to her lynch, and there has been zero resistance to the wagon. This leaves Wingback as Postie's only possible partner.

Alternatively, an explanation for why Ari couldn't be scum with Postie would be good.

Quoting the same thing 3 times with different comments is showing that TTH is trying to engage with me in the game, and I think that is town.

[BNL]

Caught up to page six. I'll catch up fully in the next hour or two but I want to make a checkpoint here as my reads are surprisingly well-developed for so early in the game.

Postie and Aristophanes are scumreads. Postie's townread on Elyse in Post 111 struck me as

exactly

the kind of read I would make as scum if a townie incorrectly townread me. I don't see how Postie could have genuinely formed that read given Elyse's content so far but I do see it making a lot of sense as scum not wanting to antagonize Elyse and shake that read.

Aristphanes's Post 32 doesn't make sense in context of Post 30 as TTH, Fire Assasin and Duppin have already pointed out. He also strikes me as under the radar and fluffy early on in the game although these are not conclusive so I'll see how I feel after catching up.

TellTaleHeart is a solid townread for either saying exactly what I was thinking (Postie) or being the first to make a valid point (Aristo), on both these major issues. Duppin's discussion with Fire Assasin and generally probing scumhunting has me leaning town on him as well. BNL's reads in general made sense given his posting so far and I also liked his saying what I was thinking on Duppin. Fire Assasin's case on Elyse was bad but I don't find it scummy. In fact, I found Fire's general activity and engagement to be town. Elyse's response to it looked town. I thought Fire made himself a rather easy target by pushing such a case but Elyse not jumping on him and pushing back when it would have been so easy to do makes me lean town.

GuiltyLion is a null read. If I'm wrong on one of Postie or Aristo, that's where I'd look. I did think the comment in Post 137 that everyone looks town enough looked like a townie thought process so I have a very slight townlean there. I also do feel that Postie pushing an early counterwagon to Aristophanes makes sense for a partner to do which makes both of those scumreads stronger.

Going to go through the next twelve pages now. Let me know if there's anything specific you need elaborated on or want me to look at.

I also like Wingback for town, for the following reasons:
1) Many of his thought processes match mine. These are my stance on GuiltyLion a while ago (though he's leaning scum now), and read on Duppin and Fire Assassin.
2) With the structure of the game so far, lurking is a towntell, or at least he isn't scum with Postie or Aristo. He has shown that he has been been online, just that he was not posting. If he was scum with either Postie or Aristo, I'd expect his buddy to say in the scum PT something like "Partner, I'm at L-1, DO SOMETHING", and he wouldn't be just stuck at page six.

[BNL]

If I'm right about GL/TTH then them swinging an L-1 wagon over from someone townreading GL to an L-1 wagon on someone scumreading both of them makes perfect sense.

There's a problem with this. Postie hasn't stated a scumread on TTH before GL voted her.

[BNL]

Okay, so the problem is that, while I do agree that Postie is scummy and has still been acting scummy,

there is too much support for her lynch

, to the extent that lynching Postie seems too easy, trappish, etc.

I do think that it is plausible that Postie is scum with someone that I would like to hide for now (no, not Wingback, I know I said that earlier but that's changed), but otherwise think Postie is a mislynch.

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

tl;dr Postie is scummy but I have really bad feelings about the lynch.

[BNL]

My point is that your case was so bad that if you actually pursued it, people would take notice and give you heat for it. Hence the back off

Yeah, I don't think thats the case.
I am pretty sure if I was scum I would continue pushing it, but I have no clue. Ill ask my scumself if I ever in similar situation again to inform me what I would actually do.

What? Why are you trying to compare your play here to how you play as scum?

[BNL]

I do agree that Postie is scummy

Why?

There's tons of stuff in my ISO about that, but there's more I haven't mentioned yet:
451 sounded really fake.
476 you mentioned that TTH and duppin scumreads were PoE, which seems contradictory to when you stated scumreads on them earlier.

[BNL]

Or is being bussed. I actually haven't considered that thoroughly, I should probably find some potential bussers now.

I don't think Wingback is Postie's partner; if Wingback is scum it makes more sense for Postie to be a mislynch IMO.

I almost wanted to rule out GL off the top of my head, but seeing their double ISO there might have been some forced interactions. I'm still leaning that they aren't scumbuddies though.

Unfortunately I didn't have time today to research thoroughly. I'll continue tomorrow.

[BNL]

I didn't miss anything. We're gonna be chatting postgame

This gave me bad vibes

[BNL]

I also agree that Aristo's hammer was terrible, and basically a scumclaim, especially because there was a VC on the same page.

I generally don't buy "accidental" hammers.

[BNL]

then suddenly jumped to "if Wingback is scum, Postie is town."

No? I just said that I thought you were unlikely to be scum with Postie, because if you were scum I think Postie would be town.

Though admittedly, you

are

under my radar now, because I didn't like some parts of how you scumread Postie, particularly "Postie is obviously scum and that's why she's universally scumread".

[BNL]

we'll discuss this tomorrow

Why?

It's unlikely you'll be online before thread lock; I still want an answer tomorrow.

[BNL]

No, I wanted you to explain why you wanted to discuss Fire's 511 tomorrow, not discuss that itself.

[BNL]

Claiming now: I am Fire Assassin's neighbour.

Summarizing stuff in the neighbourhood now.

[BNL]

At the start of the game, I asked him if was scumreading TTH, soon after he switched to Elyse. His response was that that was never true, he just didn't like TTH's posting.

He also expressed suspicion on me then, based on setup spec. He said it was highly unlikely that after Micro 597 with two town neighbours there, the neighbourhood will be all town here. He's wrong on this though. He also threatened to out the neighbourhood for lack of engagement with him and my perceived buddying of him. I thus asked him several questions about the game (trimmed here; if anybody wants them I can post them), but unanswered.

Most of the rest of the Day was about Postie. We both townread her from when I stated my townread on her. But then, I started casting doubt on her and told FA about it. He replied that he couldn't see Postie acting the way she was as scum, and he thought her pushed were genuine even if he disagreed with them. When asked about her read progression regarding Aristo, he agreed it was bad, but not from a scum mindset. He also disagreed on white knighting being scummy.

I later asked him about Elyse and Aristo; he said both were in his lynchpool but he'd rather lynch Elyse.

I tried asking him more about Postie near the flip, but those questions were ignored.

His last post was that he was townreading me, but he was annoyed at me poking him. His lynch order was GuiltyLion, then Aristophanes. I tried asking him why lynch them in that order (while I'd have preferred Ari first), but it was ignored. Then he died.

[BNL]

You claiming ascetic makes sense if you don't want potential investigatives on you. Why in the world would you as a vig claim ascetic? I suppose you may not have wanted to be roleblocked but that's something that applies to every PR in every game so it's nothing unusual. You had no reason to believe scum would roleblock you specifically.

This whole post+push is horrible. And especially this quoted part... What? I have a hard time making sense of it.

[BNL]

Wait, now that I think about it - Fire was the only one who had a scumread on Elyse, right?

[BNL]

Oh and me too, early game; that has died down long ago and I have been gut townreading her.

[BNL]

Wait, now that I think about it - Fire was the only one who had a scumread on Elyse, right?

He wasn't scumreading me at the end of the day.

Hmm

So why do you think FA was killed?

[BNL]

So, Wingback is my #1 pick for scum now for his awful "push" on GL. Elyse is would be my second pick due to FA nightkill, though I admittedly did not have the time to reread (all weekdays more busy for me now), and I will probably do so tomorrow.

[BNL]

There isn't.

I was going to slow dance this, but I can't keep it in my pants. I'm a one-shot neapolitan.

I crumbed it in my first post and in the course of doing so, learned that there is a "neapolitan pizza."

I can confirm that Elyse is town. She's not getting lynched. Ever.

VOTE: Wingback

Why did you want to hide this?

I would like to follow up to this question before

anyone

is lynched (whether me, Wingback, or anyone else), for important reasons I do not want to say yet. But just in case I do,

GuiltyLion, please claim your vig target in twilight

. I know what I am doing.

[BNL]

So we have two clears, GL and Elyse. (If TTH is town she is telling the truth so Elyse is town; if TTH is scum Elyse must be town by PoE). This leaves four unconfirmed: me, duppin, Wingback, and TTH.

~Setup Spec~

Initially I was suspecting TTH because she didn't give the result right away, which would likely give the town autowin (so why hold back?), and because town seems overpowered. But I thought about it over the night; we have Mafia Goon + ???, Town Loyal Doc + Ascetic Vig + 2 Neighbour + 1-shot Neapolitan, which leaves room for only 2 VTs, so the setup is not as broken as I thought. It just happened that the Neap lucked out. And the inno wasn't meant to be held back either, now that's settled.

The vig ensures four town kills (counting a lynch as a town kill). Double day is still slightly scumsided, and the Doc does almost nothing, so

I am guessing that the Neap is town aligned

.

Which reduces the unknown pool by one to {me,Wingback,Duppin}. I am town, but the conftowns probably can't agree on that, but it doesn't matter. Since we are guarenteed to have today's and tomorrow's lynch,

We need to ensure that our Vig shot succeeds.

.

Now it comes down to guessing what the Mafia ??? is. If it is an investigative role we won't need to care. Since the vig is ascetic we don't have to worry about a roleblocker either. If it is a doctor, Aristo should've been protected last night, so I think that is unlikely too. Linking back to what I said yesterday about claiming vig shots, I think the most reasonable Mafia PR we have to worry about is:

The last scum is likely Bulletproof

.

Which is why I asked for vig target to be claimed. If vig shoots BP in the night, a kill would've failed, so our chance of winning decreases. Hence, I propose the following:

Duppin and Wingback, please claim in your next post whether you are bulletproof or not.
I am not bulletproof.

In this case, we can be guarenteed to succeed our Vig shot by hitting a non-BP. If we kill a non-BP but the shot fails, we can lynch him as that person is fakeclaiming. By asking the vig target claim yesterday, I tried achieving the same thing: I highly doubt there was a BP townie, so if the shot failed, it was most likely on scum.

tl;dr game broken

[BNL]

I guess you're right, I didn't have to get everyone to claim BP, we just need to make sure our shot succeeds, so having just one person (me) claim non-BP does the job.

In that case, I'd rather get vigged, because now that I've explicitly claimed non-BP, lynching someone else and getting shot leaves only one unconfirmed, and if my shot fails I would become confirmed as scum (which won't happen because I'm not scum, but I'm speaking from GL/Elyse/TTH perspective).

Intent to hammer

. It doesn't matter who we lynch today, but I am indeed scumreading Wingback much more than duppin. In fact, I'm not scumreading duppin at all.

[BNL]

I will give Wingback one last chance. If he claims non-BP in his next post, I may consider getting lynched as GL can shoot him in the night, and if he doesn't die he will get lynched for lying. If he claims BP or he refuses to claim, I will hammer him immediately.

[BNL]

Even reading just D2, BNL hasn't done jack to try to figure out this game. I wanted us to cover all our bases so I looked through TTH and Elyse and read the game from the beginning. BNL summarized his neighborhood PT, pushed some weak suspicion of Elyse based on the Fire kill, and then settled into pushing the easiest target ever parroting what you, Elyse, and TTH already said about somehow finding it scummy that I thought you were a serial killer which is null as both town and scum have incentive to find the serial killer. When I pushed him to elaborate on it, he didn't even bother to respond. His posting regarding Aristo was scummy on both ends which I explain in my case as well.

You are right. I haven't put in much effort to scumhunt today. Why? Because I believe the game is solved, and I see no reason to scumhunt.

For the record, you are my strongest scumread now, because you look like scum flailing (yes that's an overused word but I can't think of a better way to describe you). Between duppin and TTH I think duppin is scummier due to setup spec.

I have already claimed non bulletproof, so if I'm scum, if I get vigged, town will win, and if I dodge the vig shot, town can lynch me for lying about being not BP. Why do you worry so much about me going into the night and dodging the vig?

[BNL]

Beyond that, I rarely get mislynched as town and I don't feel like I'm pulling my weight if I haven't fought to the end with every last breath and tried every strategy to avoid getting lynched - unlynchable town wins games for town because the scum can't figure out who to lynch.

Tell me about rarely getting mislynched as town.

Also I will have to disagree with you on the next point. Defending yourself strongly is very scummy behaviour, and that reminds me of why I'm scumreading you. Convince me why town should defend themselves, especially since we're in autowin?

[BNL]

Hey folks.

I'm conftown, huh? Sweet!

Why do people want to hammer with 8 days on the clock and someone being replaced? I'll get to fully catch-up tomorrow, but wouldn't mind a quick recap.

Because the game is solved. We have three conftowns so only three unknowns (well technically four because TTH isn't strongly confirmed but it is very likely she's town), and we also have an unlockable vig.

That's actually all the recap that you need to know. I've heard that you are a good scumhunter, so maybe you can help organise the lynches of the three unknowns (me, Wingback, duppin)

[BNL]

Where did I fake scumhunt?

Also, answer this question please:

I have already claimed non bulletproof, so if I'm scum, if I get vigged, town will win, and if I dodge the vig shot, town can lynch me for lying about being not BP. Why do you worry so much about me going into the night and dodging the vig?

[BNL]

So not only are you refusing to answer my question but you also dare to call me shifting focus?

VOTE: Wingback

[BNL]

Aristo's subtle defense of him in Post 228 after Postie voted him. Aristo agrees with Postie's read, then posts vague stuff trying to get her to change her read while also calling him scummy and taking care to not directly defend him. He's genuinely is trying to convince Postie here and not just taking a stand.

OK I just clicked on this link... are you even reading? How is that a defence of me? And are you trying to scumread me or Aristophanes?

[BNL]

As for why I didn't counterwagon Ari to Postie: I wasn't that confident in Ari being scum (at least pre-hammer) or Postie being town.

[BNL]

Eggs on the Postie wagon in Post 400 while immediately casting doubt in Post 401. Does both in Post 405.

You also have to tell me how this is scummy (or even casting doubt in general)

[BNL]

Best explanation for Fire being nightkilled was he caught onto BNL in the neighborhood PT.

Now that I remember, this is one of the reasons why I was scumreading Wingback. This feels made-up, I I doubt he actually believes in that, he just throws out a random explanation when there's a lot more to say about me.

[BNL]

Never mind I misread that, I thought he said "Best explanation for BNL being scum"

[BNL]

Actually looking at the current gamestate, I don't think anyone will ever be scumreading duppin or TTH, so it doesn't matter whether lynch me -> shoot Wingback or lynch Wingback -> shoot me.

[BNL]

VOTE: BulletproofNLynchproof

I'd rather not get mislynched just for the heck of it. Vote him and it's a win. Vig me if he's somehow town (hint: he's not). Pretty sure about this.

Now that I think about it, his end of D1 pussyfooting around the Postie lynch was incredibly scummy. I forgot about that entirely getting distracted with GL first, then Elyse.

Here, Wingback, this is where you said you'd prefer getting vigged to getting lynched. If this feeling has already gone away, can you explain why you had that feeling at that time?

[BNL]

Bah, I was town.

Not that it matters anyway. Shoot Wingback tonight, and if he somehow survives the shot lynch him tomorrow (he has claimed non-BP), and if he died lynch duppin.

[BNL]

Now that I've flipped town you know there are two town neighbours so use that to discern TTH's alignment.

[BNL]

(assuming Wingback town)

[BNL]

Setup spec. I think Mafia is unlikely to be a Neap, and I think the role claim is real.

[BNL]

You stole my page top

[BNL]

Actually, duppin advocating for my lynch over yours could be white knighting if you're town. But the lynch wagon switched.

[BNL]

Scum in times of desperation try to gain as much towncred as possible when the game is solved by staying off lynch wagons, although their lynch is inevitable. Look at whay droog did after the D3 lynch in Mini 1757.

[BNL]

Actually, TTH found out there was a Neapolitan pizza when claiming? Shouldn't it be when crumbing?

[BNL]

I must say that part of the reason I'm scumreading you is the fact that you seem to adjust to the fact that I'm town too quickly. Postie called GL out for this yesterday but GL has an excuse (he's a PR); you can't say the same since I have forced you to claim VT.

[BNL]

I don't really care to defend myself since the vig has a hard-on for me and there's no way he's shooting anyone but me although I'd prefer him to shoot TTH. Right now, I'm just focusing on which of TTH or Duppin are scum because that's the game-deciding lynch.

Also, this:

You better not be trolling me. I'll be annoyed if I spent a couple of hours in the middle of the night for nothing.

Hmm. You just said you strongly don't want to be lynched, i.e. hyperdefend yourself.

[BNL]

Scum in times of desperation try to gain as much towncred as possible when the game is solved by staying off lynch wagons, although their lynch is inevitable. Look at whay droog did after the D3 lynch in Mini 1757.

Isn't that what TTH did? She voted me when it seemed like you were the lynch for the day with two votes on you and Serra saying he was going to switch and GL having unvoted me.

Fair enough. Her vote was already on you but idk.

[BNL]

Well played, TTH! Really nice gambit you did.

[BNL]

Also, AtE is not a towntell.

ESPECIALLY not for tth

I don't remmeber TTH AtEing this game?