Mini normal 1823 dead thread

[mhsmith0]

Congratulations, you have died. Or you're an observer who was never really alive in this game in the first place. That's cool too.

Playerlist:

1. Xkfyu
   
2. Lowell
   
3. eagerSnake
   Vedith
   
4. xSoniaNevermindx
   
5. Transcend
   
6. BlackStar
   
7. TierShift
   
8. algebra
   
9. gerryoat
   
10. Mimikyu
    
11. texcat
    
12. Zyf
    dwlee99
    
13. Saru

Flips:

1. transcend,
   vanilla townie
   , lynched day one
   
2. lowell,
   vanilla townie
   , killed night one
   
3. gerryoat,
   town tracker
   , lynched day two
   
4. algebra,
   town Doctor
   , killed night two
   
5. saru,
   vanilla townie
   , killed night two
   
6. eagersnake
   vedith,
   mafia encryptor
   , lynched day three

[mhsmith0]

Got a guess? I can confirm 10v3.

[mhsmith0]

Also I'm feeling good about dwlee being town

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler: The setup

Town
Vig
Doc
Tracker
Bp
Vts

Mafia
Encryptor
1-shot strongman (likely shooting dw tonight it seems)
Goon

[mhsmith0]

Encryptor enables day talk. Day talk + no cops were the key concepts of the design, the rest flowed from that.

[mhsmith0]

Town has substantial power here too btw. Just not a cop. I like day chat because it's more fun for the wolves (potentially) and I kinda think that's really the point.

No spoilers just yet

[mhsmith0]

I might toss in spoilers day two but it's more fun if you are at least guessing through d1/n1. It's good practice IMO. A small spoiler...

Spoiler: small spoiler

You're neither all right nor all wrong

Ps why on those three specifically?

[mhsmith0]

So who are your solid town reads (if any) and why? Or maybe do a roster run /reads list. It's more of a practice exercise, you don't have to actually defend it now which is nice.

[mhsmith0]

So u have

5 town
5 null
2 scum

What gets people into your town? Your scum? Or stuck in your null space?

[mhsmith0]

When I'm busy at work main thread is on fire and ppl want vote counts. When I'm freer and looking for entertainment thread goes dark

[mhsmith0]

[mhsmith0]

On an interesting note, the wolves are setup specing reasonably but incorrectly. Key points:

Spoiler: setup spec

1) a strongman implies substantial town protecting/blocking power. Bp+doc is rare but not totally nuts. Bp+ one of rb/jk/doc is a reasonable assumption.
2) I hate cops. Anyone who knows me as a player would know this and presume no cops in setup. But if no cops, then town needs a lot of alternative power. Thus the vig/doc/tracker. By nature vig turns it swingy, but bp helps balance that, ditto the doc, and the 1-shot strongman is a limited counter to the towns night power. In this case they're assuming a cop (with a 2-shot guess) and building up from that idea, which leads them down reasonable but wrong paths

As a side note, the wolves are making very good use of day chat, and I really like their chemistry. You might be able to read a bit into that mod comment but so be it.

Ps if it makes you feel better, you were discussed as an NK possibility for a bit. It's somewhat unfortunate you outed your bp, they could have potentially wasted a shot on your slot otherwise.

[mhsmith0]

Is he your current best guess?

[mhsmith0]

Tell you what: you give me your single best guess, whether a town read or scum read, and why it's your best guess, and I'll alignment flip that one player (though all relevant discussions on that slot will need to be spoilered from then on).

[mhsmith0]

Which are you more confident on? You can also pick a more confident town read if that's your preference too.

Ps you say gut on Vedith. If he's your pick, what sets off your gut? Think he's lying? Lazy? Pretending to scum hunt? Something else?

[mhsmith0]

That's fine, but before I flip I think it'd be useful for you quantify it a bit. Or maybe point to a post or two that pings. Imagine you're in LYLO with vedith and xkfyu and are trying to prove its vedith. It's actually (IMO) a fun exercise that way.

[mhsmith0]

Nah it's ok. I mean I do think it's a helpful exercise ; being able to articulate and communicate your reasons for suspecting someone is really important if you want to influence the town and drive a preferred lynch (and as town, you do). And it's also helpful to be able to personally re-evaluate; if you can put a finger on what's wrong w someone, you can better think about whether you still believe it, and you can also pressure/question that person about whatever it is that's bugging you. In this case...

Spoiler:

vedith was Mafia. Do not post spoiler content outside of spoilers, as dead chat is considered unspoilered for now

[mhsmith0]

How much does the avg person post by the end of a mini?

It can REALLY vary. I've also been wildly above average for post count in both my mini normals
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... overview=1
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... overview=1

And above average but not wildly so in my mini theme
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... overview=1

And if you remember when I said in our newbie that you were spammy in a hard to fake manner, well, that's MY town game too (reasonably often anyway). I just finished an open where my post count was TRIPLE anyone else's
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... overview=1
I also think I've never been more obv town than I was in that one (and I'm usually pretty obv as town) but *shrugs*

[mhsmith0]

I'm not gonna FYI-flip anyone else, but why do you think algebra is super scum?

[mhsmith0]

Not necessarily. But if you think they're "wolf or bad town" it's worth trying to work through which of those you think it is. I'll freely admit that's a big hole in my town game; I have high expectations of players and can scum-read them for failing to live up to them sometimes. Also I'm sometimes a sucker for effort, and sometimes it's wrong of me to do so.

[mhsmith0]

btw...

Spoiler: spoiler note

VOTE: Transcend
Not buying the claim

This is how you counter-claim doc without screaming it from the rooftops

Please don't lynch algebra he's just misguided. I'm 80% sure.

This is probably Transcend picking up on the CC, though admittedly I'm not 100% sure

[mhsmith0]

Btw I can setup spoil if people want. All spoiler related conversation should be behind spoiler tags for people who want to follow along unspoiled.

[mhsmith0]

Also a warm welcome to transcend.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I've really enjoyed following along scum chat this game. They seem to have really great chemistry so far. 6 pages and counting, and they're getting along in a pretty fun way. Sub optimal shot tonight though; they're debating between two vt targets, instead of going for the doc.

[mhsmith0]

Spoilers below, look only if you want spoiling

Spoiler: full setup

Gerry tracker
Algebra doc
Dwlee bp
Texcat vig

Sonia 1-shot strongman
Vedith Encryptor
Black star goon

Everyone else vt

[mhsmith0]

Good games happen and bad games happen. Wolves are playing well so far though.

[mhsmith0]

Game is far from over. Day one benefits scum pretty often, the true test is how they do as the game condenses. Right now neither the vig nor the scum is killing any prs, which is a somewhat pro town outcome. Tracker gonna track a vt which does little but also isn't a false result from tracking vig or a non shooting wolf.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Right now Lowell, with black star taking the shot. I think they're out-thinking themselves here though.

Also doc hasn't checked in yet, so that's a wild card.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Sonia was town read for yelling so she decided to just yell more

[mhsmith0]

Please welcome Lowell everyone!

[mhsmith0]

Vig shot the bp so she SHOULD now know he's telling the truth. Tracker tracked a vt.

[mhsmith0]

Vigging bp is sensible if she thinks he's lying, especially given doc claim on the board. It's not a great shot but not a terrible one.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

sorry but no. Sonia Vedith black

Ps good job drawing nk over the doc tho. Definitely a compliment.

[mhsmith0]

I knew the team all along!

Spoiler:

But I'd also say the wolves had a really good d1 especially wrt working together. I almost wish I could open scum chat to you guys; they had like 6 pages and great d1 chemistry.

[mhsmith0]

On a more serious note, my d1 reads are pretty consistently worse than random; where I tend to shine is late game after flips. I feel like I should almost go into d2 and actively reverse my reads sometimes; lord knows my early reads have been exactly opposite of correct often enough

[mhsmith0]

I'm just bad at knowing when to do it or not lol. Of course I'm also consistently bad at separating bad town from wolves, with recent game long tunnels on ploben and ranger being particularly notable recent examples

[mhsmith0]

In my case I happened to be in what was possibly her worst town game ever. Even more amusingly, it partially overlapped w a game where she was scum and I was town reading her lol.

[mhsmith0]

I just think it was funny I was wrong on her in both games at the same time. Though in each I was slowly starting to come around to the possibility I might have just been wrong, and then villagers got bored and decided to end the game (which is a super annoying thing that happens to me way too often in my town games )

[mhsmith0]

oh i totally know. one ended well before the other, which gave me doubt in the second. It was just a game where she hard led a ridiculous lynch on a super obvious townie D1 for super sketchy reasons (I subbed in D2, if I'd been there D1 I'd have put a stop to it I think), had a ridiculous case on another likely townie, went crazy OMGUS on me (for bizarre reasons including the worst meta read on me I'd ever seen), and soft defended a likely wolf (who was in fact a wolf). It was one of those things where I was like, this can't POSSIBLY be town... right? (it was town)

[mhsmith0]

Wolf or bad town: separating the two is something I'd bad at

[mhsmith0]

tldr :p

more seriously I will def. read. just need time to really focus on it

[mhsmith0]

Hmm. I'll try and think of a good example.

[mhsmith0]

Sure, how about alpaca in open 642? That was a short ISO and one I really struggled to sort. Also that means someone else actually has to read that game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=66731
Ps that was seriously an un-fun game to play, though; I can think of a different one if you want.

[mhsmith0]

Welcome gerryoat!

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Sonia's hammer there was about as flagrant of a scum hammer as I've ever seen. That one probably doesn't even need to be spoiled.

[mhsmith0]

Or at least

Spoiler:

made it really really obvious that a hammer on you was a scum hammer.

[mhsmith0]

Dwlee wishes me to pass along the following:

lease tell dead chat my jimmies were thoroughly rustled

[mhsmith0]

I can't send messages from dead chat unfortunately. But he may join us before game end

[mhsmith0]

Btw this is what I posted in an MU game (now over) where someone fake claimed as vt. Though in his case he power lurked then showed up at EOD w a fake claim while doing nothing much to help so it was worse than here... but fake claim as vt in a flavor game I'm modding at your own peril

After many hours of pointless arguing and yelling, finally we were ready to depart on our great quest! We gathered together, and were about to leave, when suddenly the door crashed open and a crazy person barged through! He tried to convince us that he was really part of the team, and that he even had a special team role, and that being late to the quest was just him trying to help us! Unfortunately, he wasn't able to convince us of any of this and we were forced to ask him to leave.

Unbeknownst to us, however, this was all part of his master plan! Gleefully cackling away, he departed secure in his victory... until he re-checked his role PM and discovered that he actually wasn't a jester.

Zexy was lynched, he was...

Spoiler:

Mel Gibson,

Jester

Vanilla Townie

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Looks like saru will get vigged. Town in big trouble.

[mhsmith0]

Barring a last second switch please give a warm welcome to algebra and Saru.

[mhsmith0]

Town is about 95% doomed, question is if it'll be a sweep or not I think.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

she was deciding between Sonia Saru and xk

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Dwlee salty right now. Wonder if it goes up or down after Tex claims.

[mhsmith0]

Obligatory

[mhsmith0]

4 town PRs is not underpowered, especially with only the bp being x-shot, and none being odd or even night only. Vig and doc are strong PRs and if tracker lives a while he can confirm PRs and/or create clears, with a small chance of directly nabbing scum. But essentially town in this game is given killing and protective power, NOT free clears or guilties. That's pretty balanced.

[mhsmith0]

Town is basically random guessing it seems. Also I'm fine w openly spoiling at this point it's MYLO and no one has been super interested in flowing along unspoiled.

[mhsmith0]

The team as a whole isn't obvious but Sonia openly scum-hammered a pr, had a ridiculous fake claim and non-sensical use of it, and has just generally been off. Her not getting vigged was sub-optimal and surviving the game would just be lol town.

[mhsmith0]

I bet no one will bother looking at Sonia's d2 posts to see if what she said was at all consistent w an inno on xk.

[mhsmith0]

The town isn't really doing the things it needs in order to win. Post game probably everyone blames texcat but honestly this was a collective failure. Wolves had a great day one but I think after that point it was more town failure than wolf success.

[mhsmith0]

Btw, as so wine who recently had a game long tunnel on someone else who was trying the gambit (among other issues) I can tell you that this is HARD to tell accurately.

[mhsmith0]

Interestingly, in a recent game it was the town who jumped all over the slayer while 2/3 wolves defended him and the third was relatively late to the party on pushing him.

[mhsmith0]

Town is basically random guessing it seems.

ok so now are you getting an appreciation for why we move towards what you call "townsided" in balancing the setup...?

I guess but it's not something to be happy about. Hell, I just finished, like an hour ago, a 10v3 with:

Town
3 shot doc
2 shot odd night tracker
2 shot even night watcher
7 VT's

Wolves
Full daychat
Full roleblocker
1x strongman
1x ninja

And we (town) won on day 4 with the only actual helpful action from a PR a N3 track of the last wolf (titus also self-cleared as watcher so that helped a bit too). So, like, I dunno. I just look at a setup like this and think there are a lot of cheap ways for the town to win, and I'd feel really annoyed playing it as a wolf if the town was able to grab a cheap win from it. Just my $0.02 though. I could see running this one without the strongman I guess, but I'd instead have made it full day talk (announced) then, in part because playing without day talk is LAME (like, the whole fun part of being a wolf is team chemistry, so why WOULDN'T you want to have day talk in your game?)

[mhsmith0]

Also:

Vig BP Tracker Doctor?
What the weak as fk town is this

^^ That is NOT the language of someone who is about to counter-claim. Bitching about the setup like that is VT or wolf pretending to be VT. In like zero worlds is that what the secret PR says in that spot at that time.

[mhsmith0]

That said, solid props to Sonia and Vedith for very well done theater that IMO makes it EXTREMELY difficult to realize that they're both wolves.

[mhsmith0]

See

vedith and sonia aren't both scum, I bet my precious fedora on that.
If vedith is scum in vedith/sonia that means that xkyfu is town which still makes mimi scum.

for an example of this success. This is extremely well done scum theater that isn't awkward or obvious, has been invested in since way back in day one, and is legitimately difficult to figure out. On the one hand town has lost this, but on the other hand, that was something active and effective the wolves did to (almost certainly) pull out the win, even though a sweep is pretty unlikely.

[mhsmith0]

presumably sonia will strongman dwlee and tex will vig mimi, putting town into explicit LYLO, which I'd guess they then lose. would be interesting if tex decided to go off script and vig sonia or BS but I doubt she'll do it.

[mhsmith0]

Please give a warm welcome to vedith!

[mhsmith0]

Currently the mafia is using the 1x strongman on texcat. Either they realized texcat shot dwlee N1 or that's odd in most respects. Like, they know there's no town tracker or RB, so why use the strongman there, and on tex instead of dwlee? Ultimately I think sonia needs to either "guilty" a different player (the current plan) or argue that tex is a SK so town should lynch tex.

PS None of the players here really know me, but I HATE cop roles and have openly said as much in a number of different places. So the odds of me making a game with a cop role in it are basically zero. The reviewers actually noted that there might be a fake cop claim that gets outed because I hate cop roles and wouldn't have put it into this game.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I was very impressed with him this game, as well as in the Game of Thrones one.

[mhsmith0]

i personally think that the scum team is being foolish not to strongman dwlee and get him the hell out of the game, and make everyone tinfoil that texcat might just be a SK, but wtf do i know i guess. i suppose it's possible they're the ones tinfoiling over theat possibility at this point i guess

[mhsmith0]

except vig is killing mimi, so it's lylo and wolves win with a mislynch, and they can maybe throw around some texcat SK fear logic. IMO it's more options, plus at some point sonia's going to back herself into a corner w that claim, and "you can't prove that's a town vig" becomes a nice card to play without a tex flip.

[mhsmith0]

like, the downside for town in this game is that powers can interfere (vig can shoot PR's, doc can protect scum, tracker can see vig killing a townie). but the upside is that convincing fake claims are hard to come by. IMO that's a really big advantage to town in a 4 PR setup like this one.

[mhsmith0]

If LYLO votes were locked then this game would be over. As it is it's pretty close.

[mhsmith0]

It's a fake claim that makes no sense given the other flips. But sometimes fake claims work.

[mhsmith0]

That was fast

[mhsmith0]

Game is over. Thanks for playing and I hope you all had fun!