Newbie 1744 - Game Over

[TownCop]

VOTE: copper223
Because I usually use the username Copper, and thus you must be mafia

[TownCop]

Copper seems quite town, or it could be two mafia distancing although that's unlikely
For now,
UNVOTE: Copper223

[TownCop]

I'd like to see how Toto reacts under pressure
VOTE: Toto
L-2

[TownCop]

You know. Telling me that defeats the whole purpose. Are you sure you just want to see how I react under pressure? or you just want to get me closer to a lynch?

Well that's the way I've seen it done in previous mafia games - people say that they are reaction testing.

[TownCop]

@Toto Well it's even worse when you reaction test without saying so, get yourself to L-1 and then claim "I was reaction testing", and then town loses a ml from lynching a town. And in the first place, what is so suspicious of reaction testing?

Besides, statistics about the 3rd votes aren't going to be that much different to 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th votes. And definitely not enough reason for a vote.

[TownCop]

@Frank
I was the spearhead of the Toto pressure, and I am very against a Toto lynch right now.
I understand where you're coming from, and Toto screams nothing but scum to me. However, we have a whole eleven cocking days left before we're forced into a vote.

We need more Jason, Gideon, TownCop(!) and Spyrex. Spyrex has chosen to remain as an observer for now, which irks me, but there isn't much I can do about it. The others have no excuse for being so lax.

Jason, I understand you haven't been at your computer (to my knowledge) since I last asked, but what is your perspective on Toto?

Gideon and TownCop, what do you think of Spyrex's inactivity?

TownCop, do you think I'm scum or town? Is there a real life reason for you being so inactive or are you unsure of what to do in the game? Is it something else?

Vote: TownCop

until I am given a satisfactory answer for his meager five posts in thread.

@Toto
What was a bad thing for me to say? Please be more specific.

Imo I do have a gut feeling you're town. For a similar reason to me having a town read on copper.
But why the sudden vote without a good reason? It's only been a couple days of time to contribute (and I'm used to the many roles in EM instead of actually talking that much).
Spy's inactivity doesn't really say that much. Currently I have a null read on spy.

Gideon does seem quite scummy to me. Constantly changing votes without sufficient reason and just "agreeing" with HS (& spy) to place me at L-1 (hoping someone will quick lynch me). Although Toto is totally wrong with his read, I now think of him as a town who is just inaccurately reading people off meta (which is not that accurate)

UNVOTE: Toto
VOTE: Gideon

[TownCop]

@Copper
Toto is showing reasonable attempts at scum hunting, which although inaccurate in some cases, still hints towards a townie. And while the vote changes also point to scum (which is why I only have a slight town read for Toto), it's probably just conflicting reads and Toto is just adjusting for them, although I may be totally wrong

[TownCop]

@Copper
Mostly post 115

[TownCop]

And also from post 176.

[TownCop]

So,

Just to explain things a little bit. The case on TownCop is already damning. But I'm actually more concerned about Copper

You, see. I didn't pay attention to the first post in this game.

VOTE: TownCop
You Sir, are clearly fake claiming .

HumanSequencer did. And they were trying to hide an innocent question with other question which got her into trouble in their first post.

By itself, it looks rather petty argument. But everything fits so well.

It explains why Copper was so kind in driving the conversation on my lynch. He would not want me to just get lynched while yelling his partner is Scum. At least not without first getting some town cred, and telling everyone to not try to hunt by association, in case TownCop got lynched on D2.

It also explains why Copper went from telling one person he doesn't like Village Idiots to helping the ultimate Village Idiot / Scum in the group so far.

So, copper, what do you think about lynching TownCop? should we leave you the honors?

@Copper
This all seems like a town trying to get useful information by making reads. Ignoring his read on me (I have already explained my point on that), I'll take a look at his read on you. I can clearly see Toto's reasoning/logic behind his view on you, if I were mafia then his reasoning stands up all well and good (in this case hunting by association works very well); I do disagree though. But this is where hunting by association does gets town lynched: Toto's logic is faulty through assuming that I am mafia, and uses that to make definitive connections, such as that you're also likely to be mafia - you could be, but even if you are this is certainly not a good reason, and I do have a slight town read on you (look at it from my perspective and consider the fact that I know I am town).

-----
Current reads:
Copper: Towny
HS: Slightly Town
Toto: Slightly Town
Jason: Slightly Town
Spy: Slightly Town
SB: Slightly Scummy
Gideon: Scummy
Frank: Null

[TownCop]

@TC
Hmm I don't know that I buy your explanation fully, especially because you say, paraphrasing "I'll take a look at Toto's associative copper read now" when supposedly you should have done so before I asked you that question if you were reaction testing Toto as you claimed.

@HS
I am obviously a PR, I am copper after all.

For real though, I don't think that's a good conversation to have.

I did take a look at the post before, you wanted an explanation from me and I provided it to you (showing you how I analysed the post step by step)

@TC. Tell me why SB is scum.

I'm not completely convinced SB is scum (in fact I only have a slight scum read on SB), although SB is suspicious. Seems to be the opposite of Toto, "correct but scummy", possibly too informed. If SB is scum, he would know that I am town, and that would explain why he is acting too defensively on me when I'm under fire (perhaps if I am lynched & flip town he would get some town cred). However, I do agree with most of SB's logic especially on Gideon's vote changes, and that doesn't tie in that well with my read on SB.

I honestly wasn't planning to maintain a vote against TownCop, but after his most recent posts, I have a pretty strong feeling that he might be mafia. I'm generally wary of people who make a lot of accusations. So far, the most accusations seem to have come from Toto and TownCop. Before TownCop was accused, he was rather quiet and uninterested in scum hunting. After the accusation, he frantically started pointing fingers everywhere. Seems like a pretty strong 'read' to me.

Still, all I know is that I'm town and somebody here isn't.

Before I actively tried to hunt scum through reaction testing (which was quite early on), we were in RVS, and there was not much to comment on. Besides, what do you expect to happen when you place someone as L-1? "You would never allow a lynch on a clear, to your self you are 100% clear" - paraphrased from the wiki

[TownCop]

Actually part of that we've already discussed. Gideon reads very town from the exchange.

The other part was related to franks posting. It requires reply per pist to make sense which I'm still on the fence about but it's probably a preference thing not worth lying about

Specifically which parts?

[TownCop]

I should add to #211
Specifically which parts [/b]about Gideon? [/b]

[TownCop]

TownCop. I think Snow [SB] is town. If you assume that, how does it change your reads.

My read on SB is not critical and I have not paired SB with anyone. Thus, even if SB was town, it would not affect my other reads significantly, except perhaps that I become more certain of my other scum reads

[TownCop]

TownCop, in particular I want you to pay close attention at what you said about why SB could be scum, and what Copper said on 182. Do you see my problem?

I understand your point, but mine still stands. Can you explain your reasoning a bit clearer?

[TownCop]

Ive got a favor to ask. Can someone give a small summary of why Copper should be todays lynch? Ide like to hear from everyone on the wagon if possible. My reads are still foggy. I have a confident town read, and my vote is still where it is for a reason. Thats it.

I see some more content has been posted, and Im going to digest it tonight.

The main problem I've had with TC and the reason for the vote is that he claimed to reaction test Toto by putting him at L-2, but then did nothing once the extra pressure was added.

If you claim you are pressure voting to read someone I would then expect you to use that to interact with the possible scum-read in an inquisitive manner, instead it's more like TC is defending himself from Toto for placing him at L-2 and trying to get Toto to unvote him (once Toto did vote for it).

The unvote later on was also not really justified and the first time I asked him why he changed his mind he brought up characteristics of Toto's play that Toto had been doing all along, so if that's how you read that behavior to begin with, I'd expect you to have a town read on him and there would be no need to reaction test that particular slot.

It may be that the reaction test backfired, but it doesn't quite add up to me.

Another point is that he doesn't interact much with his scum-reads, most of the dialogue is reactive from his side, he votes Toto, then Toto votes him back and questions him, and then he answers and there is a small back and forth, the same goes for Gideon and SB he never questioned. This also strikes me as odd, in contrast look at how much Jason is focused on me, or how Toto immediately engages his "new scum-read" as soon as he thinks he found a connection.

Originally, it was #50, #82 and the likes that caught my attention for the reaction test. His play changed significantly after (especially after we were completely out of RVS), with more information that has a solid base, and that was what lead to my unvote. It also looked like a town diving deep into a case rather than what originally looked like scum trying to find a suitable target.

Yes, a lot of dialogue is reactive from my side. I am being questioned about my intents like PbPA so what would you expect?

Also, what prevents me from making reads off people in exchanges that I did not participate in? An example is SB. It is inaccurate to say that I have never questioned SB when the reality is that I am being associated with SB as scum pretty much every second post.

[TownCop]

@SB/Gideon
What is your read on Frank?
Any specific posts Gideon made about your vibe on Gideon, other than the exchange?
SB, what are your thoughts about Copper?
Spyre & Jason have been quite inactive. What do you think this might show?

@Gideon
I'd like to know your motive for the initial vote on me (originally placing me at L-1), other than jumping on the bw


@Toto
Post 122 actually looks quite towny to me, looks like a genuine towny surveying the situation. It was the posts later that gave me my scum read on SB.

[TownCop]

@Toto
Post 171 was quite suspicious, along with 168-169 when you connect it to 171.

@Copper
I understand your point, but given that that was just after he had replaced in, I can sort of understand the post. A townie could just as easily make that post to summarize what had happened for their own understanding.

I agree with you about not providing the reads though, naturally a town who has gathered information would want to use the info they just gathered.

[TownCop]

My first vote on TC was a 'test', and his response was to throw accusations everywhere else to distract us. Scummish behavior.

Since you claimed that you reaction tested me, what did it produce? You placed me at L-1, and then you did nothing. It seems like you wanted me to get quick hammered. Besides, the post you made while voting me seems like it has some sort of ulterior motive, townies do not simply suddenly change their view and say that they "agree - I understand your reasons they are all good" (paraphrased) without any reasoning in their own post, especially to place someone at L-1, when they had an opposite read prior.

What are the accusations that I made apart from you and SB? Certainly not "throwing accusations everywhere".
Things don't add up - Your play so far seems quite suspicious to me

[TownCop]

@Toto
Post 171 was quite suspicious, along with 168-169 when you connect it to 171.

Please elaborate. What is suspicious about it?

At that point, I was at L-1 (likely to be lynched). It seems to me that SB was defending me pretty hard and making accusations which had a weak base because he knew that I was town (assuming SB is scum), and after I flip town through the mislynch he would gain town cred.
He probably thought that at the time "town will think scum will allow the lynch of a townie, so I (assuming SB is scum) will stop it and town will think I'm a townie" - effectively double wifom.

[TownCop]

I agree with you about not providing the reads though, naturally a town who has gathered information would want to use the info they just gathered.

Did you all have reads at that point? Can you let me know where you all expressed those reads. I can see someone who has more than 2 pages worth of content to sift through to have reads, but I had RVS votes and slight discussions...

I didn't express all my reads at that point, but it's something natural that a town just does when they gather

all the info into one place

, especially when it's for their first time.

[TownCop]

Well, I'm not angry, but I am becoming more suspicious of SmoothBlue... and I have lots of reasons (gasp)!

He says I am "milking the new player card" but he claimed to be a new player himself:
#114 "I am new to Mafiascum, therefore I'll likely botch some tags and also ask for some lingo/try and research it myself (Did not know about RVS, VI, and I believe VC = Vote Count?)."
#122 "Gideon's defense was very odd considering there was only a couple votes down. He definitely is a new players, but I feel he is milking that "new player card". I'd like to see more content out of him."

He seems to have a conviction that all towns provide lots of content, and all scum provide little content. If this is his honest belief, then it explains the excessive amounts of content he's provided in order to make himself think he looks more like town. See:
#122: "I'd like to see more content out of [Gideon]." "I'd like to see more content from Spy."
#279: "My vibe on Gideon is that he isn't exactly providing content to the thread."
#281: "I can see someone who has more than 2 pages worth of content to sift through to have reads."

It was also mentioned that SmoothBlue's catch up post was suspiciously agreeable... fair point...

He says my 'defense' (if you can call it that - I really just asked why he was being voted) of Spy is scummish, but he does the same thing with TownCop:
#168: "I'm confused right now? What happened with TownCop other than he put Toto on L-2? @Toto and Spy, What am I missing here?"
#169: "The only thing that I see is the possible statistics that the 3rd vote was done by TownCop."
#171: "[in response to #170] TownCop even stated he was doing it to pressure Toto."
#171: "TownCop may be scum and was hoping some new townie would hammer Toto." - small distancing tactic, likely would come back to this as defense if (when) TC turned scum
#171: "Toto did a brutal job of trying to defend himself and had votes flying everywhere and settled on TownCop."
#174: "The fact that Spy/Gideon instantly switched their votes/opinions based on the above reasoning is quite ridiculous IMO." - continued defense of TC

To me, this last part is most telling - he has put a ton of posts into defending TownCop, who also acts very scummish by throwing random accusations everywhere. At this point, I have a very strong feeling that one scum is SmoothBlue, and the other is TownCop. Since there seems to be more support for a SmoothBlue lynch at this point, and in the interest of progress, I vote him.

VOTE: SmoothBlue
(wouldn't want this post to be too far from my normal, right?)

You still have failed to show me which accusations I have "thrown everywhere", yet you continually use it. And you seem to have purposely avoided the post I made asking you about your reads. Not sure about the second bit though.

Smells very suspicious

[TownCop]

I'm 100% sure that Gideon has defined himself as town multiple times. Does Gideon not count as someone to you? Does my reasoning make sense now? Either way, he is still providing little content, which is my original point.

Well, to be fair, it doesn't really matter what I say about myself, because even if I were scum I would claim to be town.

I don't really follow your reasoning behind this post. Can you explain what you meant?
Obviously, scum would claim to be town.

[TownCop]

I honestly wasn't planning to maintain a vote against TownCop, but after his most recent posts, I have a pretty strong feeling that he might be mafia. I'm generally wary of people who make a lot of accusations. So far, the most accusations seem to have come from Toto and TownCop. Before TownCop was accused, he was rather quiet and uninterested in scum hunting.

After the accusation, he frantically started pointing fingers everywhere

. Seems like a pretty strong 'read' to me.

Still, all I know is that I'm town and somebody here isn't.

I see no reason to vote SmoothBlue. TownCop is

trying too hard to be cool under pressure

to be town. I'm maintaining my vote.

My first vote on TC was a 'test', and his response was to

throw accusations everywhere else

to distract us. Scummish behavior.

I have already explained why this post seems scummy, and why you weren't just "reaction testing".

Well, I'm not angry, but I am becoming more suspicious of SmoothBlue... and I have lots of reasons (gasp)!

He says I am "milking the new player card" but he claimed to be a new player himself:
#114 "I am new to Mafiascum, therefore I'll likely botch some tags and also ask for some lingo/try and research it myself (Did not know about RVS, VI, and I believe VC = Vote Count?)."
#122 "Gideon's defense was very odd considering there was only a couple votes down. He definitely is a new players, but I feel he is milking that "new player card". I'd like to see more content out of him."

He seems to have a conviction that all towns provide lots of content, and all scum provide little content. If this is his honest belief, then it explains the excessive amounts of content he's provided in order to make himself think he looks more like town. See:
#122: "I'd like to see more content out of [Gideon]." "I'd like to see more content from Spy."
#279: "My vibe on Gideon is that he isn't exactly providing content to the thread."
#281: "I can see someone who has more than 2 pages worth of content to sift through to have reads."

It was also mentioned that SmoothBlue's catch up post was suspiciously agreeable... fair point...

He says my 'defense' (if you can call it that - I really just asked why he was being voted) of Spy is scummish, but he does the same thing with TownCop:
#168: "I'm confused right now? What happened with TownCop other than he put Toto on L-2? @Toto and Spy, What am I missing here?"
#169: "The only thing that I see is the possible statistics that the 3rd vote was done by TownCop."
#171: "[in response to #170] TownCop even stated he was doing it to pressure Toto."
#171: "TownCop may be scum and was hoping some new townie would hammer Toto." - small distancing tactic, likely would come back to this as defense if (when) TC turned scum
#171: "Toto did a brutal job of trying to defend himself and had votes flying everywhere and settled on TownCop."
#174: "The fact that Spy/Gideon instantly switched their votes/opinions based on the above reasoning is quite ridiculous IMO." - continued defense of TC

To me, this last part is most telling - he has put a ton of posts into defending TownCop, who also acts very scummish by

throwing random accusations

everywhere. At this point, I have a very strong feeling that one scum is SmoothBlue, and the other is TownCop. Since there seems to be more support for a SmoothBlue lynch at this point, and in the interest of progress, I vote him.

VOTE: SmoothBlue
(wouldn't want this post to be too far from my normal, right?)

Your 4th post relating to my "accusations", yet still no explanation.

[TownCop]

@Spyre
What I noticed is that TC is bringing up most of the points, slightly changing the flavor of the question, I did to ask Gideon about and it's having the opposite effect on me, especially after HS's post, makes me think TC is SB's buddy after all and he is looking at Gideon for the CW piggybacking on my suspicion.

The interesting point in the Jason discussion, other than highlighting once again that we seem to read the game in different ways, was him lumping together my argument about how you read the thread possibly being AI with your points about his play.

I'm also interested in his next post, cause his reaction when I brought up the quote makes me think he doesn't believe it's relevant in this context.

Most of the points I brought up were before you did (some you did not bring up at all) - for example, his vote change, his repeat use of accusations (which he still hasn't explained), his reasoning for his vote change.

I am am not piggybacking on your suspicion, I voted far earlier and besides I expressed my opinions about him before you did. I am making these points about Gideon to both respond to the points his making about me, and also to express my general suspicion about him.

[TownCop]

I noticed something new about post 262. Something small, but a slight scum tell nevertheless (which only adds to my suspicion). Gideon used the word "test" instead of reaction test, because I reaction tested and it didn't go as planned. He needed a excuse for the vote and their was no other suitable reason for a vote on me, so he had to claim a reaction test as well. A town should have no problem saying exactly the motive naturally, i.e with "reaction test", but as scum he probably feared a similar BW and to make it less suspicious he used the word "test".

[TownCop]

Not just that. Specifically that point is kind of trivial, but it only adds to my suspicion. Besides, you've ignored pretty much everything I've said and asked you about.

[TownCop]

I'd like to hear from Frank on his opinion about SB

[TownCop]

d the same to me as well and that has the potential to look terrible if he is scum, so he probably doesn't care about how it looks and that is a town mindset (not one I appreciate but that's besides the point), either that or he is super cocky scum, a strategy which I have never seen a newbie try.

It's dangerous to use WIFOM to decide on these factors. Not answering question is never good for town; it is also a sign of inexperienced scum hoping for town to just lynch themselves once a bw progresses. Seeing this and how far the SB bw has progressed (vs Gideon's play), I am more convinced of Gideon being scum than SB.

Frank also has the "potential to look terrible" for not posting enough content, but would you read him town and for similar reasons?

Granted, SB is suspicious for reasons I have prior mentioned, and I would like to see SB's responses. I'd say he's the second best lynch.

Either way, Gideon

must respond

to all questions, at least before anyone is lynched. It can only help town. It is not a matter of playstyle.

[TownCop]

No incompatible claim.
It's likely that the claim is legit. I will assume so until Gideon & Frank post.

[TownCop]

Due to their inactivity, Frank and Jason are both difficult to read.

I am convinced that HS, Spyre and most likely Toto are town.

My read of Copper is still town, although I am starting to reread his recent posts. I do follow copper's reasoning about 367 - it is perfectly reasonable. Something natural to do, especially after a pr claim, is to ask for clarifications of posts made by the clear that may not have been previously explained well.

My read of Gideon still stands until he posts meaningful content.

@Spyre aren't we able to ask for an extension?

[TownCop]

1) Why did you say towncop was ‘throwing accusations everywhere when in fact he was only accusing YOU?

Immediately after he was accused, in #197, he posted this:
"Current reads:
Copper: Towny
HS: Slightly Town
Toto: Slightly Town
Jason: Slightly Town
Spy: Slightly Town
SB: Slightly Scummy
Gideon: Scummy
Frank: Null"

Basically calling 6 people less than town.

2) How do you reconcile that 'the most accusations seem to have come from Toto and TownCop' and next you say 'Before TownCop was accused, he was rather quiet and uninterested in scum hunting'. So he was throwing accusations everywhere, but at the same time he was uninterested in scumhunting?

I meant that in #197 he started being all investigative but before then he would just accuse people of being town/scum without reasons. "Copper seems quite town," "I'd like to see how Toto reacts under pressure," "Gideon does seem quite scummy to me. Constantly changing votes without sufficient reason and just "agreeing" with HS (& spy) to place me at L-1." I guess this is a weaker point.

3) How long have you been playing mafia and where?

I've played Town of Salem, so I thought I knew how guilty people act... much faster pace there, I guess.

I think I was asked for a claim, so here it is; I'm a vanilla townie. Please, don't worst-case-scenario me, use this vote on somebody who's harmful.

1 - Accusations most often are indicative of people reading the person they are accusing as scum... and I only had 2 such reads. Very rarely does one have certain town reads earlier on - more often they are "slightly town" reads - somehow you have decided that a town read is an accusation. This reason just does not make sense. It seems like you scum slipped earlier on and now you are stuck when questioned about it, and have to use some nonsensical arguments. I'd like more explanation about the "throwing accusations around".

2 - At the start of the game there's not much to work off. Copper seemed like he was leading well - nothing concrete. I wouldn't ever use the word accuse accompanied with town. Again, it seems like you scum slipped and now trying to get your posts interpreted in a different way. And after this "back filling of reasons", you forgot that the post I made ("Gideon does seem quite scummy" was made after you voted me, thus negating your point about my change in accusation). Regardless, "quiet and uninterested" still conflicts with "accuse people".

[TownCop]

Ah ok. Thanks.

Also, sorry, I forgot this one.
"- 166, he puts TownCop to L-1 with seemingly lame reasoning. I know you clarified later this was a reaction test. This seems conflicting with you earlier, where you were super against early lynches. Did you know you were putting him at L-1?"
Honestly no. Wasn't paying attention. I don't see why anything but the "hammer" matters though... isn't it just a matter of when we're online? Did I miss a wiki article on L1s and scum reading?

"- Gideon, why were you hesitant to make accusations in 47? And why did you ask the question at the end of 158?" My early behavior was very foolish. I was still figuring out the quirks of everything and had just read about distancing, I guess.

No, not playing the noob card for anything I've done recently... only my first like 5 posts I'd like to be forgotten. >_>

The vote which puts someone at L-1 does matter. It leaves them prone to be quick hammered by mafia or town, often it forces them to claim. It is a risky vote as town, yet you used dodgy reasoning to justify it. Even if you did not notice initially, there is no chance that it would have take you such a long time to realise and unvote.

Since you are relatively new to mafia I can partly understand some of your posts, especially the initial ones. However, this not a reason for

specifically

ignoring my posts, which is indicative of scum

I still have questions unanswered. Can you respond to my posts about why you weren't reaction testing? Obviously you were not reaction testing: you did not do anything to reaction test me after you voted,

and now claim that you did not notice you placed me at L-1

. One has to notice that they placed the person at L-1 if they claim they are reaction testing, yet no unvote nor reaction testing analysis in the same post. A lot of contradicting posts.

[TownCop]

One has to notice that they placed the person at L-1 if they claim they are reaction testing, yet no unvote nor reaction testing analysis in the same post.

Are you admitting L-2 is not a reaction test, then?

No. Either L-1 or L-2 will work as a reaction test. However, as most reaction tests are done at L-1, it makes sense for him to realise such (at least consider and check) when he is posting about him doing a reaction test. I think Gideon fully intended for a L-1 reaction test from the start, and knew so when he voted me.

[TownCop]

Im guessing the fact he didnt get replaced in the last 48 hours is not AI?

No, it is not AI (he seems to have some actual RL issues), but we still cannot afford for possible scum to just hide between townies who are arguing and voting each other.

@Frank, if you aren't able to participate at least once a day, you might want to consider replacing out.

[TownCop]

What do you think of the last question in 132. Is that a towntell or posturing?

I don't think it's that alignment indicative, but if I had to say it'll probably be town. Generally scum will avoid directly asking questions in the forum and will instead research them them self to avoid possible suspicion.

[TownCop]

@Spyre
Exactly, there is very little reason to point out the obvious as town, other than "musing alive"; but as scum it has a clear purpose.

Then we're not thinking along the same lines, yesterday when you said the energy was bad I thought about it and realized there was very little resistance to lynch Gideon and that made me pause.

Today I'm seeing my town-reads active and my scum-reads absent while there is a wagon on someone I think may be scum, that is usually promising.

@Toto
Your narrative doesn't hold because Spyre town-read Gideon before he was a possible mis-lynch, if anything he may have decided he did not need to switch reads and raise suspicion because someone and maybe even Gideon was going to get lynched anyway, the question still remains, why would you waste a strong town-read on someone that looked like a juicy mis-lynch, and that's why the case that the town-IC did not want to lynch what he consider newbie town makes more sense.

Activity is often not alignment indicative as long as scum lurking is not part of their meta. Either way, people who haven't checked the forum at a particular time and thus haven't responded is just that. It is only when someone sees the post, yet decides to ignore it is what makes someone seem scummy.

[TownCop]

Frank asking as scum is a smart move cause it feels genuine enough it gives me pause

Yes, but isn't that just like saying doing

anything towny

as scum is a smart move?

[TownCop]

@Toto
Your narrative doesn't hold because Spyre town-read Gideon before he was a possible mis-lynch, if anything he may have decided he did not need to switch reads and raise suspicion because someone and maybe even Gideon was going to get lynched anyway, the question still remains, why would you waste a strong town-read on someone that looked like a juicy mis-lynch, and that's why the case that the town-IC did not want to lynch what he consider newbie town makes more sense.

The problem with this is that there was no resistance to the Gideon lynch, so it was pretty much going to happen. Spyre (if he was scum) would have no reason to participate in the wagon, especially considering how suspicious a sudden read switch would seem. The point seems to be that he gains town cred if he stays out of the vote counts.

About how Spyre town-read Gideon before he was a possible mis-lynch - It doesn't tell you much: it could have been a coincidental town read which just happened to be the bw of D1. Besides, even after Gideon started acting suspiciously Spyre still did not suspect Gideon specifically at any points, which doesn't seem right (I know that Gideon flipped - but this is looking from the past). Obviously I still town read Spyre, but just not as strongly as others such as HS (I will explain my read on HS, copper and Jasomega soon when I get more time)

[TownCop]

@TC
Where does your town read of Spyre come from then?

My reasoning only indicated

possibility

of Spyre being scum, it is obvious that no matter what Spyre still gets

some

town cred for his lynch. Besides, Spyre's reasoning is in most cases easily followed and his posts seem genuine

[TownCop]

It's not L-1.

Basically read through game twice. Gotta get some sleep. These are initial questions and feelings. Cleaner thoughts later.

Scum Lottery Picks!

(CT,Chaos)
(CT,Spy)
(Chaos,Tot)
maybe even (CT,Tot)


I like Coppers and Humans content, but their votes bother me. I'm too tired check, but I think Copper put two players to L-1
Copper and Human have been on

all 5

major wagons.
Is it indicative of anything?
I don't see both of them being scum, but this stat is sending up a red flag.

Chaos has been on every wagon but CT's (and his own). Is this even more significant? I think it is. Him voting human is weird if he is scum.Though, he could be avoiding easier targets to create potential associations. Know what I mean?

Spy's D1 was... How would you describe it? Bland? Promises. Empty statements akin to "Do you notice what I notice", "Ill share later". I did see one decent follow up. Felt like he chimed in at the wrong times. IDK about spy. But
Next part is heavy. If both scums didn't vote alike, Spy is

100 percent

scum.
I don't like his tempo today. He hasn't directly done anything I can call scummy though.

If tot is scum I don't believe he could work 2 more town lynches alone. I'm aiming for larger game unless he does something obv. scummy.

I think we have a good chance of hitting scum with CT/Chaos today. I just feel a CT lynch is the better way to go.

Again, I'm tired and apologize if any numbers are wrong.

More later.

I find your reasoning strange. You've read nearly everyone as suspicious: Copper, HS, Me, Jasomega, Spyre, Toto, and if we include you, that's everyone. I still do like the fact that you've read everyone though; and that makes me think you're town.

Can you explain specifically what gives your read on me? You've provided the least reasoning (when compared to your other reads) about this yet you're so convinced that I'm scum.

[TownCop]

@Frank
The 5 major wagons being Toto, TC, SB, Gideon and today Chaos, correct?

I never was on the Toto wagon.

I'm surprised you're not considering that given you continue to scum-read Toto and made wagon associations with Chaos.

@All
While I was checking ISO's I noticed TC only got votes from people I consider or know to be town
{Gideon, Toto, HS, Copper}, this especially stands out:

Vote Count 1.5

TownCop (4) - copper223, Toto, Human Sequencer, Gideon (L-1)

Can we not make the same analogy to other wagons? Take Toto for instance. Voted by Me, FrankJaeger, Gideon and HS
Toto only got votes from people who I know or have read as likely to be town. Yet, I still read Toto as town and clearly you do as well

[TownCop]

What I find particularly scummy about JasoMega is how his only posts before his interactions with HS were posts justifying his sudden jumps onto Gideon and SB's bw. No analysis, no other reads, just justification, and that smells fishy. Also, JasoMega selectively ignored HS's argument about the BW and lurking, which seems like it's because he doesn't have a good reason.

HS I still read town with posts such as 531 and 534. The interaction with Chaos gives me this impression, although there is a small chance it could be bussing, but that's pretty much existent with most arguments.

Copper has actively scum hunted and subsequently helped town, and thus I am reasonably confident of my town read on him also.

[TownCop]

CT- I am having trouble developing good town reads I admit. You have the highest chance of being scum right now, based on association and voting patterns.

I can talk gooder tonite when on pc

Spy, who is the other scum?
If chaos isn't scum who are your picks?

VOTE: TownCop

Ok, so what is your justification for your vote then other than that voting pattern-

all

of your scum read on me is based on that one "associations and voting patterns"

alone

- no posts at all, nothing to do with

my

voting pattern?

About the Chaos-TC voting justification:
1) JasoMega (if scum) can be trying to frame something through town's use of VCA, especially considering his recent play
2) He may have followed my reasoning about why I reaction tested and thus not convinced

You have post-related scum justification

and

voting pattern and association justification for other people, yet, you still vote me will little justification? Still, I must say that often scum will not take such a large risk, but I'm not confident about my read on you yet. Although it could be opportunistic/gambling efforts by scum to get a wagon going, which at this no-pr point could gain towncred.

[TownCop]

If I was trying to stay out of Spyrex's way, lynching Gideon probably wasn't the wisest decision on my part, hey?

You still need mislynches if you're scum. There was support for it, and you specifically mention feeling that way despite Spy's defense of the slot.

'Or it wasn't scummy before, but now I'm trying to get you lynched, so now it is.'
Well, is it scummy or not? If it is, then the fact that I'm bringing it up now should be irrelevant.

To me, it looks like you found it not scummy when there wasn't support for my slot to be lynched, and scummy when there is. That's not irrelevant.

'This reads as scum motive, looking for easy lynches over finding scum.'
I found two people I believe are likely to be scum. Frank and you. You have support for a wagon. Therefore, I decided to vote you. Is this hard to follow?

"I found two people I believe are likely to be easy lynches. Frank and you. You have support for a wagon. Therefore, I decided to vote you. Is this hard to follow?"

-----

Frank, why is HS town? And can you go more into your Toto read?

TC, who is your top scumread right now?

Toto, what's the difference between copper's L-1 vote on Gideon following me when copper said he was suspicious of my slot and your hammer vote when you said you had a gut town read on Gideon and wouldn't hammer?

Top scumread is you. I think I've already explained my reasoning about your quick vote changes and lack of other content.

[TownCop]

@TC
I can't draw the same parallels to the Toto wagon, but if it's true that both you and Frank are town then Toto might deserve some more scrutiny. It depends on how strong the town-read you have on him is and where it comes from if it's legit.

You spent your time telling me why a town-read on someone you think is town may not be applicable 100% of the time wrt. to Spyre, I don't see why a townie would do that, you didn't even use the fact you don't consider it a good read to make a case on me.

Why would a townie not explain such? Spyre's actions could be a less risky form of bussing, like trying to derail an inevitable lynch of someone who he knows is town. Letting such actions go unanalysed and auto read as town is not good at all.

[TownCop]

It could be but you currently don't believe that is the case, so what is your point?

I can take any read ever and find an instance where it does not apply, that doesn't mean it's not a valid read.

Your analysis of why scum_spyre would behave like he did randomly assumes he chose to town-read Gideon, something we have no reason to believe in a vacuum and which makes this a corner case, it does not invalidate the read (which you seem to share) so why are you doubt-casting?

There are many possible reasons for why you'd do so as scum, you don't want to get PoE'd, for instance you want to call out what you see as bad logic because that is a chance to produce content while not really reading the game, you are discrediting me.

As town all you're doing is distracting from going after the people you have a problem with (which would be Jasonmega).

@Toto
You're annoying, I hope this is not scum and I'm slowly getting tuned out, read the thread and you'll see where I am at.

It is possible it applies here - that does not mean it does not apply. I was simply stating why in general Sypre is town, but also highlighting a possibility that can apply. And for that reason it is worth pointing out.

How am I doubt casting? I am simply pointing out things that are

relatively

unnoticed. Spyre could be scum and he could purposely town read someone whose behavior he sees as an easy mislynch, in order to gain town cred.

[TownCop]

@Toto
You're annoying, I hope this is not scum and I'm slowly getting tuned out, read the thread and you'll see where I am at.

There have been some disconnects between what I read in the thread and where you were in the past so I'd rather let you clarify.

@TownCop: If Chaos is your top scum read why are you not voting him? maybe you are undecided? who is your other(s) scum read?

I want to interact more with my scum read before I vote him. And, I also want to have a look at Frank and Spyre - especially Frank (I don't have a scum read on Frank, but neither a town read).

[TownCop]

@Chaos - Can you explain your sudden vote changes that were unjustified, and otherwise lack of content earlier on?

[TownCop]

VOTE: Chaos

I think TC's soft bussing here.

How am I soft bussing?
You are probably confirmation biasing a bit too much, or too opportunistic. I have legitimate reasons to suspect him and I am yet to receive a response.

[TownCop]

You say you think he is town, I say he is town, but you're casting doubt on why I am town reading him and the way you posted it you did not just point out a side point, you claimed his behavior did not say much (see the part of your post I highlighted before) and tried to claim the whole read was invalid.

If Spyre had done something or if Chaos flips scum and you believe Spyre is the most likely scum, or if you're building a scenario where Chaos is town and you're looking for scum and you think it's Spyre, then it would make sense to say: I don't believe in copper's read because I think this is what happened and Spyre is scum because of X.

You did none of that and as I said best guess from me is you're busy pointing out "bad" logic instead of game solving.

I am not casting doubt on your read specifically of him - instead of the general reads.

Where did I try to claim the

whole

read was invalid?

[TownCop]

Now you're focusing on him (but I already posted I think it's a soft buss so now there's WIFOM involved), but for a while now you've had him as scum and mostly ignored him, his question to you and your reply in 602 also makes it seems like you're both interacting with each other just for show.

One of the reasons for my unvote was to see if you would follow up with a vote on him or just claim you were scumreading without acting on it (and this is why I called it a soft buss).

UNVOTE:

I'm happy to see more interaction between the 2 of you though.

It's true that I did not follow up vote him, but I wanted to interact further with him. The fact that you only consider

me

not voting, and ignoring FrankJaeger (to some extent) and Toto. FrankJaeger

does

seem a bit suspicious, he has scum read on Chaos but seems to be trying to redirect the bw for some reason. His claims that he has a scum read of me, but his evidence is not enough to justify such and he has not responding to my posts (most recent ones).

I don't see how you see those posts as "interacting for show". Could explain further?

[TownCop]

It's true that I did not follow up vote him, but I wanted to interact further with him.

The fact that you only consider

me

not voting, and ignoring FrankJaeger (to some extent) and Toto.

FrankJaeger

does

seem a bit suspicious

Something is missing in here. Looks like an edit error.

You're right it is an error.

What the sentence is meant to look like:

The fact that you only consider

me

not voting, and ignoring FrankJaeger (to some extent) and Toto is strange, indicating to more confirmation bias.

[TownCop]

Now you're focusing on him (but I already posted I think it's a soft buss so now there's WIFOM involved), but for a while now you've had him as scum and mostly ignored him, his question to you and your reply in 602 also makes it seems like you're both interacting with each other just for show.

One of the reasons for my unvote was to see if you would follow up with a vote on him or just claim you were scumreading without acting on it (and this is why I called it a soft buss).

UNVOTE:

I'm happy to see more interaction between the 2 of you though.

It's true that I did not follow up vote him, but I wanted to interact further with him. The fact that you only consider

me

not voting, and ignoring FrankJaeger (to some extent) and Toto. FrankJaeger

does

seem a bit suspicious, he has scum read on Chaos but seems to be trying to redirect the bw for some reason. His claims that he has a scum read of me, but his evidence is not enough to justify such and he has not responding to my posts (most recent ones).

I don't see how you see those posts as "interacting for show". Could explain further?

I am considering you in particular because I am looking for Chaos's buddy, you putting him as your top scumread perplexed me until you showed no intent to actually vote or interact with him (after which I decided a soft buss is the most likely case here).

The question he asks you is per-functionary (who's your top scum-read), and you had already said it was him as well. Your reply is also short and you don't follow up with anything, despite him being your top scum-read.

The interaction makes me believe you've both very little interest to figure each other out and that should not be the case if you're both being honest.

How does me putting him as my top scum read perplex you? The only reason is that you read me as definitive scum, which does not work chronologically (when I started to question Chaos).

I did show intent to interact with ChaosOmega - but he has not responded to my observations - as you can see, he is quite inactive. It is funny because I can say "All my town reads are active, all my scum reads are inactive" - this time, being in the middle of the day rather than the start, actually amounts to something.

[TownCop]

It's true that I did not follow up vote him, but I wanted to interact further with him.

This by the way is very compatible with my soft buss theory, you don't want to have to lynch your buddy but you want to be in position to do so if it goes pear shaped, as has seemed likely from the start of the day.

I should also point out that lurkers are hard to interact with and thus to read.

And you can interpret the quote you used (#635) as a response

et verbatim

And also "I can point out something that does not apply, but that does not mean it is any use" (paraphrased).
I

do

want to lynch scum, but I

don't

wan't to lynch a clear. And that does not make me mafia. Interaction makes me more confident (or otherwise) of my read and I can make a better decision.

Hypothetically if I was mafia, it would be much riskier to take a "

sort of

" route than "is" route (as reads), because with strong reads mafia have good defense even if it is a mislynch.

[TownCop]

Due to upcoming events, I'll be semi-V/LA from 30/10 to 4/11

. During that period, I probably won't post much (unless something significant happens) but I'll still read up.
As a side note, activity will probably decrease up to 30/10, although I will try my best to stay active up until then.

[TownCop]

'Sort of' gives wiggle room. Is can remove options.

Do you think chaos is scum?

'Sort of' does give wiggle room. I wouldn't like to get into WIFOM, but it is the scumminess of 'sort of' that makes scum avoid it.

I have a scum lean for Chaos, I want to interact further but his lurking (sometimes selectively) is preventing such.

[TownCop]

@TC
I agree with you but that's a failing I have seen scum making again and again, because of the need they feel to keep their options open.

You showed very little interest in interacting with him until I said you were soft bussing.

I was perplexed because if everyone wants to lynch Chaos, then is Chaos really scum or just a patsy that doesn't have much time to play and scum (I'd say most likely Spyre or HS and someone off the wagon just biding his time like Toto) is happily pushing him?

Isn't the most fundamental rule of bussing that you commit to it? Otherwise it's very easily picked out.

Actually, most of my interaction was

before

you said I was soft bussing, as he started to lurk recently and thus interaction is very difficult now.

[TownCop]

The most fundamental rule of bussing is not to bus.

Nope, I invite everyone to read up and see how many questions you asked him today before and after I said I thought it was a soft buss.

Well, for a matter-of-fact I asked 1 question after #616. I invite you to quote and compare.

[TownCop]

@TC
Let's say I'm wrong about you but we are both right about Chaos, who do you think is his buddy?

Frank's the second scummiest person so far (albeit I still don't have a strong scum read on him)- he also needs to be more active (and he needs to respond to my later posts).
I think I've already explained part of my reasons in posts before.

I'm pretty confident of my strong town reads though: HS, Toto, and to

some

extent you. Through PoE, Spyre's probably the remaining one if it's not Frank.

[TownCop]

And doesn't it concern you that by PoE you are ending up on another player that is willing to vote Chaos and the IC, who in this world decided to buss his SE partner from the start of D1 and has to then manage somehow to justify being alive in a 3 Lylo, and this before he knew the setup and whether someone could check him?

It could be WIFOM but I won't get into it - it'll just confuse all of us.

I don't think Frank's

really

willing to vote Chaos (despite his read), he seems to be trying very hard to redirect the bw and in doing so not seem too scummy.

[TownCop]

Stopping in, my daughters bday weekend so short on time.
CT im voting you because of your D1 voting patterns, and your flip has 2 things going for town.
1. Youre probably scum, and
2. your slot is the most informative flip, from my perspective.

I've made my read and vote,very transparent.

So, can you explain exactly what part of my voting patterns? And are there

any

other reasons?

No, lynches that are made solely for informative purposes especially when a ML results in lylo are generally not good for town, and considering that you have provided little suitable reason for your read on me, you are practically suggesting an "solely informative lynch". In fact, my lynch is not even that informative when compared to {Frank, Spyre (to some extent), Chaos}. Your lynch is informative because if you flip scum we know the other is probably chaos, but if you flip town, we'd have to start rereading into {HS, Toto, Copper}. Chaos' lynch is also very informative, yet your are trying very hard to "redirect" the BW from him to me, despite your reads of him, and use the excuse of "information".

[TownCop]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Also, ask what are the odds of 1 experienced player and one newb being together versus 2noob or 2Exp.

Then look at the wagon patters.

Throw all of this together and you should have a good 3 player pool of who scum probably are.

Again, you express your read of me far more than you explain it (It's even selectively lurking in some bits - I know that a lot of stuff has happened recently for you, but when you did post it often ignored some of my points).

I don't think the odds matter and I don't get your point about them either, but since you wanted them:

2 Newbie = 6/9 * 5/8
= 30/72

2 SE/IC = 3/9 * 2/8
= 6/72

SE or IC/Newbie = 3/9 * 6/8 + 6/9 * 3*8
= 36/72

So... as you can see, the difference between 2 Newbies and SE/Newbie is pretty much negligible, considering the fact that reads are much more important than small differences in probability. Even if you were to take anything from it, it would be that Spyre-Chaos is unlikely.

To answer your question, considering I know I'm town, I'd say 1 in the wagon. Your reasoning of Spyre is strange, can you elaborate?

[TownCop]

Im giving spy the benefit of the doubt but damnit what has spy actually done to get off without scrutiny? Not voting a mislynch isnt out of a scums tool box. I'de think scum would split vote more than not. He seems to...just...be...here...I...guess.

And exactly what is he getting off?

You seem to be reusing and "piggybacking" off some of my points about Spyre, except extending them to unrealistic lengths. I said there's the possibility that Spyre's not town, and that's true, but then you decide to explain that that somehow the possibility that he's not town makes him scum (even though he was

off

the wagon)??

[TownCop]

Im giving spy the benefit of the doubt but damnit what has spy actually done to get off without scrutiny? Not voting a mislynch isnt out of a scums tool box. I'de think scum would split vote more than not. He seems to...just...be...here...I...guess.

And exactly what is he getting off?

You seem to be reusing and "piggybacking" off some of my points about Spyre, except extending them to unrealistic lengths. I said there's the possibility that Spyre's not town, and that's true, but then you decide to explain that that somehow the possibility that he's not town makes him scum (even though he was

off

the wagon)??

I just woke up.

Im not piggy backing anything. Check my initial catch up post.

I cant tell what you are trying to say about spyre here but I think he has been givin way too much credit for his D1 vote.

So can you explain why you are not piggybacking? What about the initial catch up post?

Even if he's given too much credit what makes him scum?

[TownCop]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Also, ask what are the odds of 1 experienced player and one newb being together versus 2noob or 2Exp.

Then look at the wagon patters.

Throw all of this together and you should have a good 3 player pool of who scum probably are.

Again, you express your read of me far more than you explain it (It's even selectively lurking in some bits - I know that a lot of stuff has happened recently for you, but when you did post it often ignored some of my points).

I don't think the odds matter and I don't get your point about them either, but since you wanted them:

2 Newbie = 6/9 * 5/8
= 30/72

2 SE/IC = 3/9 * 2/8
= 6/72

SE or IC/Newbie = 3/9 * 6/8 + 6/9 * 3*8
= 36/72

So... as you can see, the difference between 2 Newbies and SE/Newbie is pretty much negligible, considering the fact that reads are much more important than small differences in probability. Even if you were to take anything from it, it would be that Spyre-Chaos is unlikely.

To answer your question, considering I know I'm town, I'd say 1 in the wagon. Your reasoning of Spyre is strange, can you elaborate?

Your math helps my case btw.

Its easy.
Look at D1 wagons.
Look at TC votes.
Look at who TC doesnt vote.
Look at when TC votes.

This is why you are best D2 lynch.
Chaos had a similar voting pattern. If town wants Chaos lynched im A OK with that.

Lol and Spy really isnt trying if hes town. Which sucks as he is one of our non noob players. I guess its a noob game so no big deal.

Lynch CT, Chaos today.
Is Chaos is green fucking lynch the fuck out of spy. If Chaos is red then its probably still CT

If you're referring to your read on me:

Instead of telling me that something's suspicious about my voting patterns, why don't you explain it yourself?

[TownCop]

Do you guys think there was one or 2 scum on D1 lynch wagon?
If 2 TC is best pick.
If you think it was split SPY IS 100 PERCENT SCUM.

Why is TC the best pick if there was two in that wagon?

Why is Spy 100% scum if there was 1?

The only logical way to conclude 100% scum spy is if there was 0 scum in that wagon. Are you bussing Spy?

What.

So are you going to selectively ignore questions which you have no answer to because of your alignment and prior badly justified (thought out) "accusations"?

[TownCop]

Ok guys.

Look at TC. What does it mean if he flips red? Green?
Same for Chaos.
Who looks good? Who looks scummy?
TC will give the better reads, but Chaos flip will pretty much give us a good read on spy.

More info from TC lynch, but either of these guys should be lynched D2.

And so you are promoting the lynch for solely information again? I've already explained about that...

[TownCop]

Vote Count 1.5

TownCop (4) - copper223, Toto, Human Sequencer, Gideon (L-1)
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger
copper223 (1) - JasonWazza
Gideon (1) - TownCop

Not voting (2) - SmoothBlue, SpyreX


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

We dont have alot of concrete data, but votes dont lie.
This is a crucial wagon D1 because VLA has passed and scum had a great chance for a lynch.

If CT is town.

He wasnt lynched so Im thinking he is scum.

Who isnt on CTs wagon? Chaos,Spy, me. Then copper jumps on Gids wagon and we know the rest from there.

If CT is scum that would make Chaos,Spy,Me or maybe even copper his partner, just looking at this VC.

Lets look at the lynch wagon.

Applying your logic further, Toto was not lynched so he must be scum, and this contradicts your reads. Scum has a great chance for a lynch, but after that there's a great chance for getting lynched the next day.

[TownCop]

Vote Count 1.10

SmoothBlue (4) - Human Sequencer, JasonWazza, Gideon, copper223 [L-1]
Gideon (1) - TownCop
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger

Not voting (3) - SmoothBlue, SpyreX, Toto


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

Wait lets study this. L-1 on a known town. Only reason not lynched is because of claim. I dont think TC wanted to hammer before the claim because he knows it would look terrible.

Whos on the wagon?

Human, Chaos, towngid, copper.

So just copper on both wagons.

Do you not notice a contradiction of this with the previous post?

"RVS has passed and scum has a great chance for a lynch"
"I don't think TC wanted to hammer before the claim because he knows it would look terrible"

Definitely confirmation bias and probably scum.

Why are you changing your opinion on things just so they make me look bad?

[TownCop]

Vote Count 1.13

Gideon (4) - TownCop, Human Sequencer, ChaosOmega, copper223 [L-1]
SmoothBlue (1) - Gideon
Toto (1) - FrankJaeger
ChaosOmega (1) - SpyreX

Not voting (2) - SmoothBlue, Toto


With nine players alive, it takes five votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day One is Saturday, 15th October 8pm BST, (in (expired on 2016-10-15 20:00:00)).

TC still has vote parked. Human. Chaos. Copper. Totohammer.

So on the known town wagons- copper,chaos, and CT.
CT's wagon did not have chaos me or spy then copper jumps off at L-1.

Connect these dots it is PROBABLY CT and Chaos.
Looking at the associations after a green/red, CT gives the clearer perspective of who is scum.

If CT happens to be green it makes it easier on D3. If Chaos Flips green we will all have alot of trouble finding spys scum buddy.

I was never on SB's wagon... (a known town wagon)
Connect the dots and it's probably Frank & Chaos

[TownCop]

if we lynch Chaos and he flips town and if Spyre survives then it's back to the drawing board.

Really copper?
Are you saying Spy is cleared if chaos flips green?
Im thinking the opposite

I am not give scum a road-map to my reads depending on how someone we haven't even lynched flips.

If Chaos flips green and if Spyre is alive tomorrow he will be more suspicious than today for sure, but not in any way confirmed scum.

I'm going to collect TC's voting pattern and then you can explain to us why you think it's scum indicative.

Im just confused by the logic that if chaos is green, and spy lives, we have to go back to the drawing board.

Its pretty clear spy is scum there but his partner is a complete guess.

If Chaos is green, spy lives, doesn't that mean Spyre has ALL his flipped reads CORRECT? Why would it be pretty clear Spy is scum?

[TownCop]

To be honest I'm not reading TC as scum either he seems to be focused on clarifying the attacks by Frank, and not actively scum-hunting which is a bad sign. This is somewhat scummy but I can also understand that Chaos is not really answering questions right now and we don't have more leads.

Yeah this is my problem with TC, it may be just like Toto said (and TC mentioned as well) that Chaos being MIA is just not helping TC game solve, but in general all the focus from TC seems to be on the wrong things (debunking reads he agrees with, defending himself, evaluating probabilities on scumteam compositions) where he does come off as a smart guy, but then ask him about who's scum and he comes out with pretty nebulous and unformed thoughts (like saying that Chaos Spyre may be a thing because of PoE based on how strong his town-reads are) and the two TC's don't match up well.

Questioning reads I have and defending are all things that are normally done. About evaluating possibilities, Frank wanted stats about it and I decided to clarify and provide them, so why is the focus on "wrong things"? As you've said, game solving at this current point is difficult, I am more interested in hunting for scum right now, rather than further reading my town reads.

I'm pretty confident on part of the scum team now after recent posts.
I did not have a strong read at the start of the day, due to Chaos lurking and Frank's inactivity.

@Toto I am actively scum hunting especially between my scum reads.

@All
My idea of a general scum team now:

Frank

: Focuses way too much on voting patterns most of which don't actually make sense or exist, VCA is the only evidence he has for his vote on me. Changes his opinions on things often to help his scum read of me (extreme confirmation bias).

Chaos

: Needs to be more active, want to see posts from him. Sometimes seletively lurking

Spyre: Depends on whether Frank is bussing Spyre, also came here from PoE.

[TownCop]

The scum motivation is that the more you switch the more you may be questioned about it so you try not to unless you have to

, limiting the amount of times you have to lie about something is a standard tactic to try and seem truthful when you are forced to lie.

Because there is an obvious scum motive for trying to deviate from Chaos, you doing so makes you the most likely scum candidate, and yeah that's very townie of me, I know.

I'm happy you seemed to be prepared for this one so at least you noticed your own slip, what happened is you prodded Chaos hoping he would respond by announcing the buss and when he hammered himself, instead of towning it up like you wanted him to and that's why you gave him that chance, you let that Jeez slip .

Yay, Ive got my PC back! Now I can try to not type like an idiot.

Look Copper. Your case against me is backwards. You're going in with the basis that I'm already scum. You authored my biography and called everything in it scummy. Cheap stuff.

I made my reads clear why frame them this way?

And you think me typing the words "Oh Jeez" and then hitting submit was an accident? I slipped and fell and it just happened?

Lol WTF?

@HS
This is the difference between me reading players and me wanting to lynch a player because I think he is scum, so it's true I am out for blood.

I think it's import for newer players to realize that once you're set on someone being scum you have to commit to your read and get them lynched, it's a valuable skill to learn.

Explaining mechanics (answering your Q+ and debating the general case of a 2 man IC/SE team) is a way to post and interact without giving anything away.

If the IC or one of the SE's doing it in a newbie you have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they are just explaining as they should (provided that's not ALL they do), but in a general game it's often a scumtell (it's called IIoA on the wiki, information instead of analysis).

Frank's reads by the way also look like him trying to buy off his lynch by town-reading those that haven't yet decided to hang him, in particular his Toto read evolution makes no sense (hint: because it's not a real read).

This. This. This. 1000 times. This proves my above point. Copper isn't scum hunting anymore. Just using WIFOM with

every

thing Ive done.
And about toto. Ive had the same toto read since I caught up on D2, can you prove different? Nah you cant.
Just shout "SCUM" as answer.
You aren't trying to figure out the game, you just want Frank lynched.


Look at the sentences I've bolded. Perfect example of what Copper is doing right now. He does a complete 180 when talking about himself, to human.
But I'm sure copper has a reply with "what I really meant" coming.

I still think TC is best lynch. Coppers play style has had an abrupt change, and it scares me. But Im still thinking the scum is 1-1 Exp/noob players.

You're still vote parking on me, because I'm the most likely alternative lynch.
I find your use of odds very strange. Even if it was Exp/Newbie it would be Chaos-Frank. And odds are far less important than reads.
Also, you have a semi-scum read on Copper so that if you get me lynched today, tomorrow you'll already have a person who you scum read.
The doubt you have about your read on Copper seems to be from the difficulty on actually producing a lynch on him, you would much rather lynching me, and if you do manage to lynch Copper his flip will look very bad on you.

Considering how important you consider VCA, let's have a look at your votes

D1 - Parked on Toto
D2 - Parked on TC -

scum reads chaos but doesn't vote

D3 - Parked on TC -

TC is most likely alternative lynch, so doesn't change vote (changing votes looks suspicious)

[TownCop]

I'm still want to hear what towncop has to say about his upcoming lynch tomorrow, after we lynch Frank today.

Why do you

assume

there's going to be a tomorrow - and thus inferring Frank is green, yet still having a scum read on him?

About Frank:

VCA is suspicious
Use of probability is strange
Interaction with Copper seems

scum-town

, and I am reasonably convinced Copper is town

Vote Parking on me despite having no solid evidence for his read

However, as HS pointed out, Frank's early interactions are towny. Also, the comment Frank made after the hammer vote does not seem AI - I know this is WIFOM but generally scum will not make such an easy slip.

I have a general scum read on Frank, but I do want to have a closer look at Toto before voting. Also, I require answers from Frank about his read on me, and many times I ask it has been ignored.
I will dive into Toto's ISO after or during semi-V/LA (starting tomorrow, ending in a week after, will try to read up during but probably won't post unless something significant happens)

[TownCop]

The scum motivation is that the more you switch the more you may be questioned about it so you try not to unless you have to

, limiting the amount of times you have to lie about something is a standard tactic to try and seem truthful when you are forced to lie.

Because there is an obvious scum motive for trying to deviate from Chaos, you doing so makes you the most likely scum candidate, and yeah that's very townie of me, I know.

I'm happy you seemed to be prepared for this one so at least you noticed your own slip, what happened is you prodded Chaos hoping he would respond by announcing the buss and when he hammered himself, instead of towning it up like you wanted him to and that's why you gave him that chance, you let that Jeez slip .

Yay, Ive got my PC back! Now I can try to not type like an idiot.

Look Copper. Your case against me is backwards. You're going in with the basis that I'm already scum. You authored my biography and called everything in it scummy. Cheap stuff.

I made my reads clear why frame them this way?

And you think me typing the words "Oh Jeez" and then hitting submit was an accident? I slipped and fell and it just happened?

Lol WTF?

Copper's point is clear. And whether or not there is confirmation bias, you still need to explain your reasoning/defense properly.

Your defense does not explain anything about what you've highlighted in the quote you used, and heavily reliant on WIFOM.

[TownCop]

On semi-V/LA until Friday (started this Monday)

Not much has changed from last time I posted about my reads.
Frank is still not answering what I him to.

So, here is my intent to hammer when V/LA ends unless something changes.