Open 658 Making Friends and Enemies | Game Over

[havingfitz]

Hello all. I'll start reading in the morning (est) and post thoughts asap.

[havingfitz]

OK...still in catch up mode for the most part. I have skimmed the
entire game and plan to go back for some ISOs and focused reading on
certain interactions or events. In the interest of providing some
~useful content t00his is kind of where my head is atm:

1) Nice job hitting scum D1. clapclap

2) Even though one of my more recent losses involved losing to a scum
team that did some hardcore bussing from early on in a game...I have a
hard time believing Transcent is scum from his MariaGamma
exchanges/votes.

3) Unless scum had some sort of a read on Aubrey being a mason I do
not see any obvious reason for killing her. The fact she spent much
of the day on

Transcend seems too blatant of a set up if that's what today's
Transcend wagon is based on.

4) Current gut on people:

Town - Transcend

TBD - Burgerking, BK201, tojam, Flubber........~ Dunnstral

Suspect - Creature, sad1492, SAJ and mhsmith0.

Vote mhsmith0

because....

A little defense of Maria at replace in.
Throws some suspicions toejam's way without ever placing a vote. In
fact...vote stayed on sad all D1 posing no threat to sad and otherwise
doing no good.
Starts criticizing Gamma a good bit towards end of D1 without ever
putting a vote on....while seeming to keep an open mind on tojam.
D2 starts...mhsmith unsure on Transcend...suspects sad/SAJ. 2 posts
later joins the Transcend wagon.

More later.

[havingfitz]

Havingfits would be my other guess skimming through mod ISO.

Why?

Hey, Transcend, what do you think about this weird read change?

What was "weird" about odd's change of view towards Transcend? Town to null in 5 pages?

VOTE: Transcend

The other scum candidates are sad1492 and havingfitz

So odd goes from town to null on Transcend yesterday and you find that weird...yet you vote Transcend and indicate another of odd's scum suspects (aka lynchbaits) is a top candidate. Seems like you agree to some extent with odd.

I think Transcend looks worse D3 than he did D1 or D2 but I'm not sure it's because of the NKs. More people than just Dunnstal were suspect of Transcend yesterday and the NK could have just been scum getting lucky with mason hunting. I looked in Dunnstal's ISO and didn't really see anything. I haven't looked over Ari's...maybe tomorrow (zzzzzz). I still lean town on Transcend. I want to look over the end of yesterday/twilight and a few other things before putting down my vote today.

[havingfitz]

Wtf? So Transcend is scum?

[havingfitz]

@odd: What would you put on me being scum now?

Rip, he's gone. Fitz ^

Why are you asking me this? I haven't commented on you yet 1) because I haven't sorted you out yet and 2) the two days I've been here have both ended so quickly. If we're both here tomorrow and it lasts more than a day or two I'll get back to you.

If Transcend flips scum town is looking good. We can absorb two mismatches before a LYLO situation...and if masons both make it through tonight we can POE the shit out of the last scum.

[havingfitz]

I do not have the patience for twilight. C'mon mod...ID the lynchee! Hopefully the mod is around. I note at least one pending replacement elsewhere.

[havingfitz]

Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate it. I do and am out of town through Saturday. Limited to no posting till then.

[havingfitz]

Prod despite Thanksgiving activities. Will post tomorrow.

[havingfitz]

OK...not a lot has been said in here so far today so I didn't miss much being out of pocket for the holiday.

I haven't played on the site in almost 12 months and though I do recall playing in games with Titus before...I do not remember her being obtuse enough to vote for a player that was killed N1. It almost seems fake to me and fake is usually not good in mafia IMO.

VCA shows Creature and SAJ are the only two players still alive that were on every lynch so far and as I suspect mafia would have tried to get some town cred on the D1 Gamma-scum sinking ship...that points more so to SAJ with the D1 hammer than is does Creature who was pushing Gamma(Maria) much of D1. The Titus slot could have been bussing the D1 scum lynch as well...but as that was by her predecessor whose meta I do not know and don't want to dig up...I don't know if that much bussing is reasonable.

Question for Creature....do you recall any scum games where you did substantial bussing on a partner?

Question for anyone who was still here D1.....was Gamma(Maria) pretty much a foregone conclusion as the lynch? If it was inevitable I think the odds of a D1 bus by one or both her partners is more plausible. The only other two wagons that even came close to Gamma(Maria) on D1 were Tojam who reached L-2 and to a much lesser degree...the Dunnstel slot.

I'm leaning Titus and SAJ...despite them voting each other today. I don't like joining either one of them on the other's wagon but as I think there is a strong chance one or both of them could be scum...the D1 hammer plus 2 mislynches pushes me SAJ's direction.

VOTE: Secret Agent Jin <-- L-1 by my count! Please no accidental or self hammers.

[havingfitz]

Regarding SAJ's claim.

Pushed to L-1 and claims VT and gives a good rundown of how the numbers would play off D4. I could see this appeal coming from either town or scum really.
But wait....very next SAJ post is a mason claim!

Safe to say SAJ is not a VT fakeclaiming to save his life at the expense of outing a real mason.

Does scum on the verge of getting lynched make a last ditch effort to out one or both mason? Sure. But if SAJ IS fakeclaiming scum...why no counterclaim? IMO...if SAJ is scum...there has been no mason CC because 1) it would take outing both masons to confirm SAJ is lying...only one CC would leave open the coin flip that one was scum and one was mason; and most importantly 2) if SAJ is scum fakeclaiming mason...then the masons are both still unknowns and they are poised to eliminate half the remaining scum without claiming. Then they are free and clear to claim tomorrow and auto-win the game if the last scum doesn't hit a mason tonight. If SAJ is today's lynch and flips scum...odds are his partner is BK or Flubber so a town win is almost guaranteed.

What if SAJ actually is a mason? Then the preemptive VT claim was a very bad move. Being wishy washy with claims does not instill confidence in those you are trying to convince. A vouch by a mason partner would save you and would lead us to a LYLO situation tomorrow (w/1 confirmed town)...unless saving you resulted in today's lynch being scum. Then tomorrow would not be LYLO.

So I'm on the fence. I suspected SAJ as scum and could actually see strong benefits to masons not saying anything to lock in the SAJ lynch if they can get the lynch without claiming.
If SAJ IS telling the truth....and winds up being today's lynch...then we are down one mason and scum have a smaller pool of targets tonight. Potentially getting the last mason and being in 5 player LYLO tomorrow with no confirmed town. But if SAJ's partner vouches for him....we go into tomorrow with one confirmed town (as one of the masons would be NK'd) and possibly a non-LYLO situation if scum is lynched today...with potential for a town win tomorrow and worst case 3 player LYLO with no confirmed town.

So I think silence implicates SAJ further and really there is no way around the other mason not vouching if SAJ's claim is legit.

[havingfitz]

on the VERY SLIGHT CHANCE there is a mason that is really holding out to not expose themselves to scum, pls claim intent to hammer on SAJ

If SAJ is scum I suspect both masons are already on the wagon. Otherwise they would have hammered. Unless they're dragging the day out in hopes of outing a scum partner.

[havingfitz]

If SAJ is scum you join BK and Tojam as suspects

[havingfitz]

Anyone counterclaims mason? If not, then SAJ shall no longer be lynched today and whoever pushes him will be autolynched.

It's been pointed out already how masons have no reason to cc SAJ if he's fakeclaiming.

[havingfitz]

If SAJ is today's lynch and flips scum...odds are his partner is BK or Flubber so a town win is almost guaranteed.

EBWOP...Flubber is voting SAJ. Doubt he is scum if SAJ is scum. SAJ scum would implicate BK..Creature........tojam.

[havingfitz]

(seeing Aubrey and sad1492 nightkills).

What does this evening mean?

I vouch.

UNVOTE:

[havingfitz]

You can't be that bad.

Agreed.

Havingfitz is my money for toejam's partner ftr.

Yeah...no.

I'm leaning Titus and SAJ...despite them voting each other today.

VOTE: Titus

[havingfitz]

I'd also like to point out that if I'm scum why was I right on 3/4 lynches so far.

WTH...try you were right on 1 of 4 lynches.


FMPOV there's 2 scum in BK, tojam and Flubbernugget. Them's some good odds.

Titus played terrible yesterday and had a lynch coming IMO so I have doubts both scum would need to push his lynch. This points to Flubbernugget. Along with voting town the entire game aside (potentially) from tojam for part of D2. Which was returned in kind by tojam D2. So perhaps some harmless bussing.

A lot to consider. I lean tojam and Flubbernugget atm but I want to ISO'D BK first to see if he's clean.

[havingfitz]

Sorry all. I took the day off yesterday and got sidetracked with holiday prep. I'll try to get some content in today. I'm confident at least one of tojam and Flubber are scum so not too freaked out by tojam's vote. Reading now (after coffee is made).

[havingfitz]

I'm not writing you off at all. You're on of the ISO's I'm doing.

[havingfitz]

VOTE: Flubbernugget

[havingfitz]

ditto

[havingfitz]

Good game partner and Mod.
It was nice playing with BK and not being under any serious suspicion for most of the game. Getting scum on day one and having the masons alive fairly late into the game should have spelled more trouble for scum.

Thought I would get more flak after hammering Titus but was ready to defend myself on it. Fortunately I never really had to on the last day. Sweet.

For my first game back in a year it was good to get the win.

Happy holidays to you all.

Oh...and I would never self-hammer as town. Never. If scum want a mislynch they are going to have to work for it. Thanks Transcend.