New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Kagami]

Bwahaha! Gaze upon your scarcity and weep, gentlemen.

[Kagami]

Jester is scum.

[Kagami]

Being a lady is awesome.

[Kagami]

If only there was some way to informally request a pairing.

[Kagami]

Relax cerb, there are ladies who know what's up at this little shindig.

[Kagami]

I'm OK with the s_s for forever alone nom.

[Kagami]

I have cerb as town.

[Kagami]

Shadow, the current proposal is that you're left out of the dance. Is there anyone you'd like to nominate as more-likely-scum-than-you, who we should consider instead? (And why)

[Kagami]

Only takes one or two, the last available ladies make the decision.

[Kagami]

Oh look, someone that thinks their post matter.
Keep up the effort, kiddo.

you and shadow would be perfect for each other to be honest

I'll take Shadow. We understand one enough.
Shadow - offer yourself to me!

Don't you dare.

[Kagami]

I think you're misinterpreting the intent behind that post, parama.

[Kagami]

Yes, I meant that one.

Let me ask you, if shadow flips scum, how will that influence your current reads?

[Kagami]

Yes, I meant that one.

Let me ask you, if shadow flips scum, how will that influence your current reads?

How about when he flips town?
I suspect it will be his fault and not your shit ty reads.

No, I'm not the unaccountable sort.

Who do you think should be left out?

[Kagami]

i mean for one it confirms cerberus as town

I like to have a little more to work with, and I rarely have this much leverage.

[Kagami]

So then shadow is a fine option, vedith.

[Kagami]

Who among the five available gentlemen do you think is most likely to be scum, vedith?

[Kagami]

Lots of posts in between, but @Parama:

I wanted shadow to provide us with more associations to use if he flips scum.

[Kagami]

I'm waiting for Kagami to say yes to dunn first

Are you the remaining lady?

[Kagami]

Alright, I'm down for dunn. [unofficial]

[Kagami]

ok,

Accept Dunn.

This should be interesting.

[Kagami]

-_-

[Kagami]

first

[Kagami]

While it was a bad decision, I don't see why maria-scum wouldn't be quite happy to take the lurker when given such a nice opportunity.

If there's a problem with that pair, it's shadow.

[Kagami]

Btw, you should have signed up as a gentleman, pie -_-

[Kagami]

Though I suppose I signed up later...

[Kagami]

What do you think about the jester pair?

[Kagami]

@pie

[Kagami]

I think my favorite lynches atm are jester pair and vedith pair, with the latter more than shadow pair mostly because vedith-scum would imply shadow pair is clean to my mind.

[Kagami]

No dunn so far despite a fair number of extra views in my pt.

[Kagami]

Scum gamma flailing like crazy.

Kagami can you actually tell me what's scummy about me instead of just claiming I'm scummy. Thanks

Didn't care much for your agreement with jester's point on cerb, and I didn't like how you handled explaining it. Later, your response to my 332 was terrible, and then 703 was pure survivalism, especially since you'd have to be a fool to think scum-sickofit would put so little effort into pairing.

Your saving grace is that vedith has a pretty solid chance of being scum here, and he seems bizarrely confident that you're town, while being unwilling to defy the masses to save you.

[Kagami]

I'll also add, I found your pre-dance attitude highly distasteful, which isn't alignment indicative, but would have made me feel less bad about leaving you behind if you're town.

[Kagami]

I would not have accepted dunn if I had believed maria would accept shadow.

[Kagami]

I thought you were pretty confident shadow is town, vedith. What changed?

[Kagami]

Alright, I'm ok with vedith-town.

[Kagami]

Unless he's substantially improved since I last played with him.

[Kagami]

VOTE: Jester-Pair

[Kagami]

I don't see any reason to discuss cerb's alignment, really, but it's probably town.

[Kagami]

Has parama said anything of note in your pt?

[Kagami]

Maybe just lynching shadow is correct, regardless.

Parama is not wrong that it's very strange to say "Why are you doing something that will just get you NKed?" to someone you're scumreading.

The town-shadow explanation there is that he finds Cerb's behavior odd and was poking at oddities without really thinking through the implications of them, which weighs against the probability that scum-shadow was poking at him in an effort to appear townish and did so in a very clumsy way. I don't think it's quite the smoking gun Parama is making it out to be, but meh.

I still don't like jester's early play and I don't have any terribly fuzzy feeling about MDS either. I think scum-MDS would probably have held out for just a bit, but if there was already a pre-established pairing plan, that may have itself looked suspicious. Jester's "In fact I know you do, therefore my question should be: are you brave enough?" bit makes a show of saying "I'm totes going to be sorting you (because I am town)," which is counterproductive to any real attempt to establish a read. I'm treating 17 as a joke, but I find it strange that no one jumped on that. It's exactly the sort of low-hanging-fruit comment that usually attracts a scumread nibble. I'm also concerned that pretty much everyone had jester/mds as some level of scumread, but they didn't get any real attention at dance-start.

tl;dr: down for lynching either of those pairs, somewhat prefer jester. Ended up with much more text than I'd like.

[Kagami]

kind of meandered from my original thought there.

[Kagami]

The only way maria is scum is if she's scum with shadow and behaved very suboptimally.

If shadow is town, there's no way maria chooses him over sicko. He's likely to get her lynched and she has to anger the town to pick him over sicko. If shadow is scum, she gains so, so, so much from bussing him there and loses so little.

[Kagami]

That is exactly what parama has been saying and it's not wrong. 165 indicates a scum-read of some level on cerb, 212 is the infamous "why pair with IC and be NKed?"

[Kagami]

Now, with that said, I don't believe any town lady should so blithely accept a dance from any gentleman. This is a chance to weed out a villain in our midst, or force the villains to dance together at the least.

Speaking of which...2 mafia gentlemen, one lady? Vice versa? Anyone have any thoughts on what's more likely?

Found the first scum. First, town have no bussiness pairing with IC cause that doesn't amount to them solving the game in any way. That overblown explanation in #98 looks like nervous scum. Second, that 'innocent' setup spec question looks like taken straight outta scumbook.

Pedit I can't fucking post cause every time I hit submit there's a new post. Please

This is what you agreed with.

[Kagami]

Which part did you agree with?

[Kagami]

What's your experience with shadow, vedith?

[Kagami]

... Speaking of which...2 mafia gentlemen, one lady? Vice versa? Anyone have any thoughts on what's more likely?

Found the first scum. First, town have no bussiness pairing with IC cause that doesn't amount to them solving the game in any way. That overblown explanation in #98 looks like nervous scum. Second, that 'innocent' setup spec question looks like taken straight outta scumbook. ...

Jester has a point about Cerb.

And why do you wanna pair up with nahdia and get killed during intermission?

So what happened here is that you agreed with only the setup spec thing, but not strongly enough to call it a scumread, and then asked cerb about the IC thing.

Was your 212 prompted by Jester's statement about it?

[Kagami]

Also I think shadow is better because it gives town a whole bunch of info post-flip.

I'm not sure it does, actually. Especially if he's town.

[Kagami]

That doesn't make me more inclined to lynch them.

I'm not really sure what the argument against maria is beyond that she made a bad decision in choosing a partner.

[Kagami]

I'm not really sure what I'd learn from that aspect of the flip.

o.o

[Kagami]

I guess it would be pretty amazing if they're scum-scum, which isn't impossible.

[Kagami]

I'm reading it, it's actually looking like something worth pursuing.

Maria was very keen on keeping shadow alive throughout the entire pre-dance, without directly defending him.

[Kagami]

Shadow's invite doesn't really look scum-scum though.

[Kagami]

I think she might be town.

[Kagami]

I see I've been discussed o.o

@Whoever mentioned read-cloning: my internalization is that dunn's reads followed mine, with mismatches as to who was scummy but general agreement on which pairs were likely to include scum. A notable difference is HS-Parama, where he thought and still thinks HS is likely scum, where I'm more leery of parama (unless shadow is in fact scum, which is something that I'm beginning to think is worth checking).

I would be shocked if gamma and shadow are both town, I'm just unsure who should leave first, since one pair being scum somewhat implies the other town. Part of me wants to channel our charming mod, who would probably just want to lynch them all and let the mod sort them out.

[Kagami]

VOTE: Shadow Pair

[Kagami]

jester, where's your gamma vote?

[Kagami]

VOTE: Gamma pair

[Kagami]

HS, I think it's jester-gamma-?, though I don't disagree that shadow pair deserves death regardless of alignment.

[Kagami]

Pie~~~~~

[Kagami]

meh, sounds like we're on the same page.

[Kagami]

You're a fair bit more suspicious of parama than I am, I'd say, but I've voiced similar-ish concerns in pt

[Kagami]

VOTE: jester pair

[Kagami]

I think I liked the 8day total time limit better

[Kagami]

Does anyone have meta/history with pie? Does she play similar to Equinox? Because that's how I get the feeling from her posts and I feel like just reading her how I try to read Equinox because I have an extremely hard time distinguishing scum from town from that playstyle.

Pie has a fairly straightforward 2013 style and is a competent scum player. I don't know equinox well enough to comment on similarities.

If I were to guess, I'd say town-pie.

[Kagami]

I think we should just flip a scummo and work from there.

[Kagami]

VOTE: gamma

[Kagami]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Kagami]

No cerberus, MDS has demonstrated that she's that she's willing to pick oit some quotes that appear bad on some superficial level, but has not really reviewed the thread.

Fact check the read cloning argument in particular.

If there was a time for a no lynch, it was then. If no lynch was a good choice pre-lynch, then you should see why.

[Kagami]

Btw, my votes have been great.

[Kagami]

Do you have any complaints?

[Kagami]

Thinking about that vs jester.

I still don't like "shadow is so very town" without an attempt to push gamma, who he claimed a scumread on. At one point, he had justified that with "I think vedith is town," which is kind of silly in itself, doesn't make a whole lot of sense when his readslist has every scumread with a townread partner.

Could be jester+shadow, but then the defense of shadow is going to attract a lot of suspicion without doing much to prevent the lynch.

I'm somewhat entertaining the jester-mds scumpair possibility, with shadow-pair also being T-T. At a PC now which makes reviewing the thread a million times easier.

[Kagami]

smith is also a direction worth looking into, but I'd have to be extra confident on that. I feel like pie is my lifeline for reason.

[Kagami]

Why would you take any stock in the reads of town who weren't killed by scum, anyway?

[Kagami]

First impression upon review is that No Lynch is almost certainly correct.

[Kagami]

How many posts are there in your PT, jester?

[Kagami]

And you too, maria.

[Kagami]

Why not both?

[Kagami]

How many are yours?

[Kagami]

How many of the almost 200 are yours vs MDS's?

And the follow-up to both: How much has been said post-gamma flip?

[Kagami]

Maybe nowhere, I don't see how this is in any way inconvenient.

[Kagami]

Can you give me a tl;dr on why you think shadow is town, maria?

[Kagami]

Why does a no lynch help us when scum is prob just gonna kill the IC pair.

This possibility does not bother me; but I'm pretty sure a no lynch won't go through anyway.

[Kagami]

May I have a VC, dear host?

[Kagami]

Can you give me a tl;dr on why you think shadow is town, maria?

Main reasons:
I've played with both town and scum shadow and town shadow is more confident cocky irritated etc like he is now
Scum shadow was more sly/questioning the best way to say it was he was really cold it's hard to explain
he also seems extremely genuine in our PT when he's been saying sorry that he was getting us lynched from his mini outbursts

Why does he think you are town?

[Kagami]

If you guys aren't going to vote, it's basically impossible to lynch scum while you're alive.

[Kagami]

yes, it is.

[Kagami]

Or was when I was in this setup a year-ish ago

[Kagami]

VOTE: jester-mds

[Kagami]

I'm sad that your partner has a pretty good chance of being scum, pie.

[Kagami]

That's using fine member extremely loosely but otherwise I think that's likely correct.

[Kagami]

It's your partner that's concerning, MDS.

[Kagami]

Well, mostly.

[Kagami]

Well, what in the PT is particularly convincing?

Does he explain why he didn't vote gamma? How does he re-evaluate post-flip?

[Kagami]

Why does he townread parama?

[Kagami]

And what are his thoughts re:smith?

[Kagami]

Which part of my stance would you like clarified? My thoughts seem pretty clearly presented.

[Kagami]

What about parama, why did you have a townread there?

[Kagami]

I'm more curious about your read historically.

[Kagami]

You seem reasonably loose with your vote in completed games, why do you need 100% certainty here?

[Kagami]

Your votes in clash of fates are extremely uncomfortable.

[Kagami]

that was the first game I looked at, you weren't inactive re:voting. Whether or not your vote is part of a lynch wagon isn't really something you can control in any case.

[Kagami]

I agree that you're playing this game more tightly than either your scumgames or your towngames, but your scum-votes seem to be very awkwardly justified, and you're clearly not comfortable placing them. I don't see anything comparable in your towngame, and I don't see why you'd change your voting pattern here as town.

Requiring 100% certainty is silly, and you know that. I don't see how that's a defense for not voting gamma at any point in the Day. Did you provide some indication I've missed in thread that you want to vote exclusive for a possible scum-scum pairing? Is there something in your PT about this that MDS can verify?

The parama issue stems from your shadow townread, which you've held since the beginning of the game and I'm not entirely sure why. Given the belief that shadow is town, how did you form a townread on Parama? His early iso is largely his demanding shadow's death for reasons you presumably consider invalid, and a short agreement with my "jester is scum" comment. Parama suddenly arising from dormancy upon my mention of this isn't giving me warm fuzzies either, but that's a different story.

Is there information in your PT available to MDS that can address any of this?

[Kagami]

My interest in the gamma vote thing also stems from your shadow townread, btw. If you were interested in saving him, voting gamma would be the way to do it, or presenting something more than "I think shadow is town," as a defense.

[Kagami]

It worked in the same way my anti-tiger rock keeps tigers away from my house.

[Kagami]

I still don't see your point. You're enforcing your playstyle on me while talking about actions that have already happened and can't be averted. If both Shadow and Gamma were at L-1, I would've voted for Gamma but that situation didn't happen thanks to Vedith.

How did vedith do the wrong thing if you were going to wait for L-1?

@MDS, when did 149 happen?

[Kagami]

The voting thing isn't so much a meta argument as a "this is a very convenient thing for scum to do" argument for which there's no meta counter argument for.

I don't understand why you're bringing up the PR thing, Smith, as the linked game doesn't actually address the concern. Shall I assume you didn't read it?

[Kagami]

To be fair, a big part of the reason I'm not voting smith atm is that he's paired with pie.

I'm thinking jester-scum likely implies smith-scum anyway, as I doubt jester-scum only puts town in his scum-list in his position.

[Kagami]

This game needs more voting, or more suicide.

I remain of the opinion that jester-mds is the most likely to get a scum-flip. I'm willing to go smith as well.

I'm probably not going to compromise on shadow-maria vs intermission unless there's something I'm missing beyond that they're terrible.

[Kagami]

I don't care about voting data, I just want a scum flip.

[Kagami]

I don't understand why you haven't been actively pushing people to place votes given your belief in the merits of vote analysis.

[Kagami]

I don't understand why you haven't been actively pushing people to place votes given your belief in the merits of vote analysis.

THAT is your objection here? Really?

The question is whether you're town who is extremely passionate about people dying via lynch rather than vig, or scum who has latched onto this as a pro-town talking point.

[Kagami]

I might be onboard, simply because I don't get how one generates 3418 without having a good reason to think there's exactly one scum lady.

[Kagami]

Might be maria-smith-jester and we're all just spinning our wheels here.

Looking over smith-maria interactions and they're super awkward.

[Kagami]

Thinking this through, want to check the not-incredibly-implausible explanation for 3418.

[Kagami]

Shadow, can you provide a summary of maria's recent reads together with her confidence in them?

[Kagami]

You were pretty active during pre-dance, how did you miss that?

[Kagami]

VOTE: maria pair

[Kagami]

What are your reads looking like atm, Maria?

[Kagami]

Why is parama town, and why did scout move from scummish to null?

[Kagami]

Shadow, is there evidence in the PT to support maria's claim that she had moved scout from the scumread we see in the late 2000s to a nullread?

[Kagami]

I'll be around until deadline and will vote the larger of jester/Maria at all times.

[Kagami]

Didn't see smith so large. May do that too.

[Kagami]

Hitting deadline in first dance should also be an auto-lose

[Kagami]

Sorry pie, I'm on cerb's side here. Even if you see some marginal benefit to posting all that out here, it's a behavior that benefits you add scum far more, so town-you shouldn't do it.

[Kagami]

I understand that, HS. It was a note to fg more than anyone.

[Kagami]

As scum*

[Kagami]

If I were scum and had a manner that allowed it, I would attempt to have such a conversion if possible, especially given all the "no suicide" nonsense.

[Kagami]

I understand that, HS. It was a note to fg more than anyone.

what, so you -want- town to lose?

like how else am i supposed to read this

Competently, I suppose.

[Kagami]

Shrug, let's just lynch something. No lynch isn't terrible, but we could have done that 7 days ago.

[Kagami]

VOTE: Jester

Preferred lynch. Will vote others if nec.

[Kagami]

Keep waiting, smith, it's a ridiculous question with a false assumption.

[Kagami]

Smith, until this town learns to vote strategically, there will be no majority. There probably won't be one tomorrow either at this rate.

This setup simply isn't conducive to actually lynching, and to my knowledge there has never been a lynch in a Large Dance.

If you want to keep up the "omg, suicide is not the answer" thing, because votes are super important to analyze, you're going to have to put some effort into actually pressuring people to vote. You can start with yourself, and then follow up with jester, who conveniently is probably scum.

[Kagami]

I'm pushing jester, in case that's not how you're interpreting it.

[Kagami]

smith should vote jester.

[Kagami]

It was!

[Kagami]

VOTE: Maria

[Kagami]

3418

The other scum are gentlemen.

[Kagami]

Smith is scum, look at smith-maria interactions.

[Kagami]

HS is lock-town especially after her last few posts, it's just unfortunate that her lover is scum.

SAD/inspectorscout are both town. from there the last scum pair is either mine or Dunn/Kagami, but I haven't looked that much further into it yet.

I actually did not like HS's post-leaving pre-flip posting, but we're otherwise on the same page.

VOTE: jester

[Kagami]

Need to think about this and reread. Weekend is crazy so far.

UNVOTE:

[Kagami]

VOTE: jester-mds

[Kagami]

Thought they were L-1 or 2

[Kagami]

Pie, I have meetings until 1pm, 3 hours from now. Let's chat then.

The best reason I have to townread Dunn right now is that he's been appropriately suspicious of me fairly often and said as much in PT. That's fake-able, but from what I've seen, he's not a master of subtlety by any means.

Dunn scum would imply a team of dunn-jester-sad or scout, to my mind, which seems pretty high energy.

[Kagami]

Pie, can you give me a tl;dr on smith-town?

[Kagami]

MDS' vote for the last part of D1 was a serious vote on herself, through the point when she had a large wagon on herself that was very viable and until the day ended.

I don't think that's feigned.

I don't find your reason compelling here.

[Kagami]

2655 remains the best reason to possibly townread that pair, to my mind.

I still find it pretty incredibly that a town-player whose only strong position has been "Shadow-Maria is town" produces 3706 and 3719. On the other hand, it's not really any less crazy that scum-jester produces them.

[Kagami]

what am I missing?

I don't think she was in terrible danger, especially after the you-smith interaction, and retracting a self-vote is very easy.

[Kagami]

self-voting is not really a self-destructive behavior in a game where you can suicide at will.

[Kagami]

Would be nice if there was some way I could just kill everyone who complained about 4081-4085.

I can barely read games on the weekend and VCs don't happen often, not super complicated.

[Kagami]

Actually, this is probably a good time to hear out where kagami scumreads are actually coming from.

[Kagami]

The scum explanation is that he expected to get lynched soon and just wanted to make sure a non-him lynch happened first.

That doesn't explain MDS's behavior, though.

[Kagami]

Who do you think would be most likely scum with jester?

[Kagami]

Good, we agree at least on that.

[Kagami]

Well, we've agreed pretty well so far, but I'm happy you came to the same conclusion re:parama.

[Kagami]

Crossbus or scum-scum pair.

[Kagami]

You didn't find it strange how today opened?

[Kagami]

4095 has nice explanations for scum-parama, but is awkward for town-parama, as it assumes I'm not simply bussing them, which is also the superficial explanation for 4071.

And yes, disagree re:HS. I think you're overvalue-ing "self-voting" as a town-indicator, especially just after a timeout.

[Kagami]

4081

[Kagami]

What's the issue with SAD? I was liking him on review.

[Kagami]

Meh, I wasn't really paying too much attention to SADscout or HS-Parama D1 either, so a lack of breadth doesn't bother me too much.

There could be something more sophisticated things going on. I feel like if I were scum, I'd be doing things like pushing the partners of scumbuddies in the hopes they town it up and I can justify voting elsewhere while using the push to clear them or myself when one flips.

[Kagami]

re: pie's last post.

[Kagami]

So which do you think is the best lynch from a greedy standpoint, pie?

[Kagami]

Kagami what do you think? About The Parama pair being our best lynch as opposed to jester pair

Depends on the plausibility of more exotic scenarios, such as teams including MDS rather than jester. We're at a pretty critical juncture here and I'd rather not rush it.

Parama as scum-with-jester implies a very greedy strategy, which is something to think about.

[Kagami]

Specifically, that the mystery +1 is in pie/smith or is HS/MDS.

[Kagami]

I would think smith rather than dunn, but dunn is possible.

If Dunn, that would mean jester did an unusual-ish thing in putting me as the scumread in our pair, which seems counterintuitive. He also doesn't have any clear indication that he's going to be the one who goes the distance, such that bussing makes a lot of sense.

[Kagami]

would mhsmith be POE at that point, or?

No, smith fits in very nicely.

[Kagami]

Extremely nicely...

[Kagami]

What is parama at?

[Kagami]

Well, I'm going to re-evaluate after each successful scumlynch, but I'm open to leaving as soon as we can agree to a high confidence T-T pair.

[Kagami]

Pie can I have a concrete read on mhsmith from you on where you currently stand?

And while you're here, Dunn and Kagami, how are you reading each other right now?

I would need a more compelling reason to think he's scum than I've seen thus far for me to leave the dance, and I'm not going to play around with driving a lynch on him if I come to think he's scum with any confidence.

[Kagami]

Insufficiently compelling.

[Kagami]

Who me? I'd never vote you.

[Kagami]

O with you, yes. I am considering that.

[Kagami]

We are, we're trying to figure out the optimal lynch on the basis of likely configurations, which are relatively few.

[Kagami]

We're probably not lynching jester

[Kagami]

His lynch is not a coin flip by any means, though

[Kagami]

VOTE: parama

[Kagami]

You think that would be my strategy?

[Kagami]

To be fair, I've been entertaining the same notion, so I don't think you can say that objectively.

Your reasons for townreading each other are entirely based on an interaction that had no reason to be public and could be scripted without too much effort.

[Kagami]

And, given the willingness to put forward such effort, is a strategy that's fairly obviously generated.

[Kagami]

If HS-parama flips T-T, then I'd be willing to let jester go on as T-T, but we probably disagree on leave order.

[Kagami]

If Pie and I were scum and partners together, we would very likely script up something similar in case the game-flow looked like it was turning against us. It would certainly take effort, but would be easy relative to the total effort spent in winning a scum-game, which we're both painfully familiar with.

I maintain that things which have much greater scum-utility than town-utility should be kept private if possible.

You're basically arguing that if a scum-pair would choose to spend the effort to script a convincing interaction like that, they should automatically win the game, which is kind of silly.

In practice, unfortunately, that's likely how it will be if they are indeed S-S, since I have absolutely zero chance of pushing a lynch on any scum-scum pair in the current game-state, which is reason enough not to worry too much about it.

[Kagami]

I guess the question of motivation is valid. Pie doesn't really

like

being scum unless that's changed in my absence, and might be less inclined to prepare such a route.

I remember the pie of serum and steel being fairly emotional, and being convincingly so, but that was multiball and she might have actually thought ceph was scum.

[Kagami]

The latter question is kind of silly. If you and pie are scum, that interaction has likely already resulted in a win for you, where otherwise you were heavily suspected.

[Kagami]

It's not so much about what is easily fake-able as what seems reasonably likely to be fake.

If I were ever, for whatever reason, compelled to spend as much effort as pie did in that interaction and believed with the conviction that pie expressed that my partner was scum, I would simply leave the dance.

Despite your repeated comments to the contrary and extremely inappropriate Vedith-bashing, leaving the dance is a very reasonable option compared to trying to lynch potentially quadruply-loved scum. If we lose this game, the blame will rest primarily on the partners of scum.

[Kagami]

In any case, I think this all less likely than HS-parama giving us a scumflip, and being able to proceed nicely from there.

I'm open to leaving the dance if parama flips town, provided I get to determine the last surviving pair, since I don't really see how we can win in a world where hs-parama-dunn are all town unless whichever part of MDS-jester is town replaces out.

[Kagami]

Being suspected is irrelevant, because aside from scout, the only people with any suspicion directed at your pair have no chance of executing a lynch. If you and pie are scum, you've nearly certainly won, in large part through the effort of the currently dead town.

You are wrong that Vedith made an error. Gamma was as close to a lynch as he was ever going to get until deadline loomed, at which point the votes are near meaningless. Even you, who are so gung-ho about lynching rather than suicide-bombing, have apparently placed no consideration on the votes leading to the shadow-maria lynch (who were are also as nearly lynched as anyone is going to get here).

Agree that cerberus misplayed. He and Nahdia executed a fairly silly gambit which failed. If he wanted to actually do it with a higher chance of success, he needed to be actively scummy rather than obviously non-present-as-a-strategy.

With regard to the final paragraph, I'm not sure what you're expecting me to point out. I've literally written posts for my scumbuddies in games where there is daytalk, though the practice is fairly rare. I've told you what makes me entertain it as a possibility, which is that pie evidently was thoroughly convinced you were scum when the pushed first started, and there's no reason she should be hesitant to leave the dance because *you* said she shouldn't.

[Kagami]

I also don't understand how pie considers jester-parama-dunn more likely than jester-parama-smith.

While that's irrelevant to actual execution, since I think we both agree that sad-scout lives following parama-jester scumlynches, it is strangely defensive.

[Kagami]

I really do not think I should keep being paranoid of you here but jesus fuck, I can't help it because pairing with a partner (and doing literally anything but what me/mhsmith did here) is probably exactly what I'd do in this setup.

I'm pretty confident that scum-scum pairing is optimal in a Large Dance unless it would be awkward to engineer, or there's someone in the list who you are confident would correctly scumread you.

[Kagami]

actually hang on that doesn't work.

me -> you -> Jester pair if I flip town/town, me -> reevaluate from there if mhsmith is scum.

I think I'd want to move jester pair up. I'm not confident MDS will lynch him even if smith/dunn flip scum.

[Kagami]

We can keep that order, but I'd want to secure a promise from MDS before I left, which hopefully my flip would be humbling enough to enforce.

[Kagami]

If smith and parama are both scum, there's zero chance we re-evaluate to non-jester as the next lynch.

[Kagami]

I don't really care what other people think about Dunn, so I'm not inclined to talk about my read on Dunn either here or in my PT.

If you really care to know, I don't think there's a high-probability partner for Dunn other than scout, which makes him probably town. If HS-Parama are town then there are some exotic possibilities, most of which I can't really do anything about, so it's likely optimal for me to just leave and hope it's something like Dunn-Scout-MDS.

[Kagami]

I don't think jester really makes sense with Dunn, if for no other reason than Jester's choice of putting me as a scumread and dunn as a townread in his readslist.

[Kagami]

Dunn-SAD-scout was one of the exotic sets I was thinking about, but that seems unlikely.

[Kagami]

Let's imagine dunn is scum, scout is scum, kagami is town. Who do you think is most likely to be scummo #3?

[Kagami]

I am interested in his conclusion, though I find the *words* pretty annoying.

[Kagami]

So we're once again on the same page, though more "not your pair" because he really wanted to lynch smith yesterday. I would say Dunn-scum strongly implies Piesmith is T-T

[Kagami]

So let's say we're T-T, what does that mean.

I think it makes sad-scout the other T-T.

[Kagami]

Contemplating the benefits of suicide, but I would require that jester-MDS dies first on a dunn town-flip, and sadscout survives to the end unless someone unexpected flips scum.