[SETUP] Hollywood Mafia

[LlamaFluff]

Doesn't mass claim day one hurt scum chances way too much?

D1 massclaim (known 6VT, 2 Goon)... assume scum tries to kill the worse odd group each night and scum mislynches from worse odds pool...

D1 - VT lynch (25% vs 20%)
N1 - Celeb kill to create (28.5% vs 25%)
D2 - VT lynch (2/7 vs 1/4) -> 2/6 v 1/4
N2 - Celeb kill to create (33% vs 33%)
D3 - Celeb lynch (33% vs 33%)
N3 - VT kill to create 2/5 v 1/2

So if both alignments simply play optimally, there is a 100% chance of the worst thing that can happen for scum a lylo where one of them is in a 50-50 caught chance.

The other town option is to just try to power lynch Celebs (higher risk/reward), as if they hit one quick you start forcing a lot of kills for scum. D1 scum celeb lynch I think the game is almost over as there are now four forced NKs

[LlamaFluff]

According to a mix-max strategy if both team play optimally then EV is 27%, if my code is right.

@OP If you make the celebs 3:2 and 7:1 for vt:goons then EV goes up to 44.6%

I think the play if you want to make a setup like this is variable numbers in each group. Maybe something like:

1x Town Cop (Guilty on Goon, Innocent on Mafia Celeb)
1x Paparazzi (Guilty of Mafia Celeb, Innocent on Goon)
2-3x Town Celeb
5-6x Vanilla Town
1-2x Mafia Goon
1-2x Mafia Celeb

Otherwise the one correct lynch for town D1 basically ends the game as you are dealing with a large number of cleared players.