Micro 768: Geriatric Grey Flag Nightless - Game Over

[Jingle]

VOTE: Korts

Chainsaw defense.

Also, I would like to report that the mod did in fact error and sent me a Vanilla Town role pm instead of my requested NK immune miller vig role. I expect this will be rectified shortly.

[Jingle]

Oh! This actually started! I thought a confirmation stage would be happening or something!

Hi insanity! Nice to see you back around these parts!
Korts, I may have the Jolly Green Giant on speed dial and he does not take so kindly to your wishes of removing all greens! Don't make me call him!

As for a vote,
VOTE: xRECKONERx
I don't think I've ever played with you but have always wanted to!

You're about to be sorely disappointed, friend.

Probably scum.

VOTE: Korts

Chainsaw defense.

Hmmm can you elaborate? Am I the perpetrator of this chainsaw defense, or are you justifying your vote with it? And do you mean the PolarBoy or the Tarhalindur version of the chainsaw defense?

No, I'm performing a Tarhalindur chainsaw defense by defending Ari from you by voting you. Likely to win over his good graces so that he'll influence the game in my favor with his almighty skittles powers.

VOTE: Luca Blight

OMGUS

[Jingle]

Serious votes time.

VOTE: Korts

Assuming I’m right there, reck is probably town. I don’t see two scum jumping so blatantly for such an obvious piece of bait. I do find Korts’ line of questioning incredibly superficial, to the point where it overshadows recks lack of RVS vote.

You may all begin groveling at my clearly superior ability now. I’ll see you tomorrow.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Korts

Sigh. Jingle, if you're going to play the look-at-me-I'm-scum-but-scum-wouldn't-say-that reaction test game, let people weigh in and allow the situation to develop before you jump in with your grand analysis.

"Superficial" questioning, really? What exactly were you expecting in response? I asked you to confirm that yes, you are claiming a scumtell on yourself, which you did, and now you're shocked that your wagon took off. Pull your head out of yourself, dude.

By the way - if Reck's "probably town," why mention his lack of RVS vote? What does that indicate, exactly?

Pshh. Why?

I had a goal. The goal has been satisfied. Is there really any further benefit to maintaining an RVS gambit past the point where RVS ends? I say no. I say, now that we have two competing wagons both based on actual reasoning, thin though it may be, there is no point to saying that either of my scumclaims were intended as anything more than jumping off points by which I could analyze people. People can still analyze my behavior, and in fact I welcome them to. But intentionally holding back at this point in the game gains me nothing, as either alignment.

And, to be perfectly clear in case anyone missed it, I scumclaimed twice in my opening post. You, being an '08 player almost certainly understood the reference to the second but chose to comment only on the first bit, meaning it's not the scumclaiming itself that you found suspicious, but rather the . This tells me that you understood the reasoning behind the post, the inherent reasoning, but still chose to jump onto my wagon because of a "scumclaim" as soon as there was support to it. Why then, when it is fairly obvious, at least to me, that you know my behavior at this point in the thread is almost entirely null?

Because, it's an easy push. You look like you're doing something. You saw the reck vote and took that as confirmation that the game was going to be swinging in that direction and let yourself be pulled along. As someone who is aware of the gambit and town, you would be far more likely to sit back and wait for the situation to develop. You would know, as town, that reactions were going to be more natural without someone who had clearly figured out what was going on muddying the waters. Your mouth is saying one thing, and your intentions are clearly elsewhere. Hence, scum.

3) Sure, yeah, but I wanted to give him an opportunity to subvert expectations. That whole line of questioning was to get him to explicitly commit to the scum claim.

What possible gain does town you have from this? Is there a reaction that makes me town? Scum? Or is this just more empty fluff trying to look like you're scumhunting when you already knew exactly what I was doing and wanted to look proactive?

19, 20, 21, and 24 are goodposting.

Why is it scummy to not be voting atm?

The setup. Town's biggest advantages here are the infrequent nightkills and the higher than normal usefulness of associative tells. People not voting or not interacting are neutering the associatives, and that's unacceptable.

Luca, while he is putting things in my mouth, is largely correct. As an explanation to the reck is probably town bit, the associative there is not that both of them are voting for me. The associative is that Korts appears to be piling on in direct response to reck voting for me. Especially given daytalk, there is absolutely no reason for Korts scum to tie himself to reck scum that early over such a trivial thing. If either of them flips scum, it's a fairly safe bet at this point in the game that the other is town, more so than anyone else in the game.

Also, Luca may be scum.

[Jingle]

Of course I may be; I wouldn't expect anyone to trust me implicitly based on a post or two, but what particularly makes you want to point this out here?

Because I'd like to know one way or another, and I think posting that will make it more likely for your alignment to become apparent sooner than later because of reasons. To answer the related question of why from CoA, or rather, to fail to answer it without ignoring it, I'd rather wait to discuss it for a few more days.

On a mostly unrelated note, I recognize your name, but your gameplay is off from what I have associated with you in my memory. Which would you say is the most likely reason for this? A. A large playstyle change over the last couple of years. B. A conflation of two players in the long time between games. Or C. An intentional subversion of meta/ change of playstyle for this game? It probably doesn't matter much, and I'll get around to the meta work eventually, but I'd appreciate your two cents before I do.

It does contribute something towards solving the game – I think that anyone going off of what Jingle said would be lead to false conclusions, so I pointed that out. What I was saying wasn't even mainly about Korts and Reck, it was about Jingle. I'm mainly looking to see how Jingle responds. If, for example, he continues to push his point and his reasoning doesn't feel genuine, that begs further questions about his motivations and why he might be pushing that narrative. If he responds and his thought process feels genuine, that indicates to me that he's probably town, even if I disagree with what he's saying – that kind of examinating of the game seems more likely to come from town than to be fabricated by scum, to me.

I wasn't aware this warranted a response, but if you'd like one I can provide it. I considered that series of logical turns, and dismissed it as unlikely.

First, that style of play (subversion of reads via suboptimal play) is a risky strategy that only really works if you can rely on someone in the game to point it out. As such, from both your join date and your lack of obvious connections to the other players, it seems unlikely you would be comfortable enough making such a gamble. This is of course predicated on the belief you are not an alt, which is as yet unfounded, but can be assumed D1 (In the case you are an alt, there is a roughly 60% chance you are mastina, btw, which means you are incredibly unlikely to have revealed yourself for a gambit given A. an inflated sense of my usefulness to town that would lead to me be a priority lynch and a powerful desire to keep alts hidden). Insanity, by their own admission, is returning from hiatus. This means they likely don't have the clout to influence their scumteam to try such a thing when the risk and reward is unknown, especially given the strength of reck's personality.

Second, that inception comes from a style of player who is overly concerned with the long term plan, not the immediacy of the thread. Luca from what I remember of him is not that style of player. Ari, likewise, relies far more on a 'gut and interaction' style than allows for that. Reck wouldn't go for that style of play, either. He's a Majiffy school of mafia player, not a mastina one. That means he's more interested in reacting to the thread and all around being a powerful voice than crafting an early narrative to bank iffy townreads in the endgame. Keychain was in a game where she was my scumbuddy and watched me dance around the gallows convincingly for pretty much the entire time as one of if not her first scumgames before winning LYLO. It was, if it is not too arrogant of me to say so, one of the examples of my better scumgames. Thus, I assume she vastly overestimates my skill level and will be extremely wary of me regardless of her alignment, meaning she was unlikely to be ringleader to such a plan in this case, regardless of capability or inclination. Ray is definitely capable of that level and style of thought, but again, if my experience with him holds true he is probably too busy IRL to have put something like that together, convinced his scumbuddies, and implemented it so soon into the game. This leaves Korts, who is at the moment my primary concern, but whose play reminds me more closely of TSQ than mastina's meaning he likely relies far more on his charisma and ability to react to the thread than complicated plans. I would honestly be shocked if Korts-scum had started considering a nightkill target at this point in the game.

Of course, there remains the chance that one or more of my analyses are flawed and a couple of them are predicated on the knowledge of me-town, but the funny thing about mafia is that when I make sweeping grand statements on D1, I can still change my mind should new information come to light.

Yeah nah you're kinda overthinking it. You think I'm being calculated and actually scumhunting at this point. No, I'm just stirring shit up, and you gave the apropos.

Props on the NK-immune miller vig reference, though.

And here comes the dirty little secret about Jingle. I overthink everything, I'm just also really good at hiding it behind a veneer of levity and/or seeming insanity. The even darker truth? That doesn't mean I'm wrong. I do think I'm doing a pretty good job of peeling away the layers and getting inside your head, given your agreement on Luca, so I'm going to keep on with the current course.

Whatever else may come, I've decided I very much enjoy playing with you, and I'm looking forward to this game even more, if possible.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Source of my Ray meta

While I may or may not have played with you as a secret alt (I still have a few kicking around that haven't been found out) the game I remember you best from was this one. Further, we've had some limited interaction through site chat (there was a time when Brandi was feeling down and you provided a friendly ear that particularly springs to mind) and when I was at my most active I read approximately 70% of the ongoing games at any given time. Part of the reason I am so excited for this game is that we haven't played much, but I truly enjoyed playing with you in the past and looked forward to a chance to do so again. Putting Ari and Reck onto the /prein list pretty much guaranteed I was reading this, and I've wanted to play with Korts since I saw his geriatric thread in the first place.

Spoiler: Frosty Responses

I dislike the fact Jingle answers a question for CultOfAthena.

Where did I do this?

I dislike the specificity of what Jingle calls goodposting as it seems to revolve around opinions that match his own.

You are incorrect, sir. It is not in fact "opinions that match my own" that connects those posts and makes them goodposting. I don't even particularly see them as town or scum at this point in time, and I certainly don't share the opinions in all of them. I am in fact unsure how I could possibly share all of the opinions in those 4 posts, given that in those four, there are 3 scumleans, including one on me and 3 townleans, including one on my current vote. I'd love for you to explain this thought process a little. As far as using it to not really respond to the posts, well, I'm doing that by not really responding to the posts. I've been not really responding to a lot of things with various reasons behind most of them. If you'd like to explore the why's of that with me, I'm available, but you're going to have to get a little more specific.

Spoiler: @ Korts

Just popping in right now, but I thought I'd respond to anything aimed at me while I'm here.

Not sure if Jingle wants any answers, I don't feel a need to continue that thread myself right now. Ping me if I missed something!

Nope. Pretty happy both with the status of the wagon on you and your responses so far. If I should require more explanations I will endeavor to make such clear.

Consider this an invitation to pool our resources, Jingle. I'll be making a proper analysis later, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on Luca.

I will have to decline your invitation at this time, however I will give you my primary thought on Luca. He thinks I'm town. I'll probably explain further after your analysis.

Spoiler: Luca analysis

From what I remember, I believe we played together in House Mafia (theme game, there was a special 'sickness' mechanic.) My impression of you is that you're prone to tunneling, relatively good at PR use and manipulation, heavily rely on gut, are moderately susceptible to buddying, more spammy than I would expect for a geriatric game but less than the current site meta, and that your logic was fairly decent but difficult for me to track. This doesn't seem to match your play so far this game, which means I need to look through my completed games folder, find the games we were actually in together and decide whether I'm thinking of someone else, my meta is too stale, you've shifted in playerstyle, or the geriatric rules are changing you.

At the risk of being accused of answering for other people again, I reeeally don't like Key's reluctance to vote me. Nor do I like the fact that it comes up in every part of 49.

I would also like to apologize if my posts come out a bit on the long side. I think I can be forgiven, however, especially considering I plan on posting only once or twice a day.

[Jingle]

The rest of this paragraph basically amounts to "I scumread Korts because everyone else has meta reasons not to give a fuck" and that really doesn't sit right with me, BECAUSE I don't think Jingle went through all that calculus before pointing his finger at Korts. This seems like a way to retroactively justify it--not that retroactively applying insight to a gut thing is a scumtell, but this is really theatrical.

You missed the point spectacularly. That's a pile of logic to point at why you and korts likely aren't scum together. It has very little to do with my actual scumread on korts and was mostly done before the game was started. Admittedly, insanity and CoA were 'researched' after D1 began, but :shrugs:.

Also, I'll try not to refer to it as the Majiffy school in the future, but you have to admit that there are segments of the population that tend to play in similar manners and he is one of if not the biggest name from that style as of 2013 when my analysis of ms cliques began. Unless the problem is with my analysis of you, in which case feel free to tell me where I'm wrong.

I do feel like, however, that my vote is probably fine staying on Jingle for the moment.

Me too.

@ CoA:

Spoiler: Athena 18

At that point I was interested in voting Jingle to follow up on my post, but that would have put him to L-1, so I didn't.

Spoiler: Reck 20

I see scummy things in both of them. Do you expect me to only have one scumread at a time?

Spoiler: insanity 23

This could be because I tend to attribute more seriousness to votes that are closer to lynch - it was L-2 and looked like it was taking seriously the reasoning Reck had given.

There's the repetition, with everything else snipped. Granted, I was most of the content in the thread at the time in one way or another, but it rubs me the wrong way. Having everything be about me and still not being on my wagon is pretty .

Ari, on the other hand said much the same thing, once, earlier. Additionally, he didn't just get done playing with me in a game where I'm fairly certain that I mentioned one of my goals starting out most games is to hit L-1 early regardless of Role PM because I find it easier as both alignments to work from a position where I can analyze a wagon on me, making the egregiousness of his infraction much smaller. Had he voted me, however, I would have been almost assured of his town status.

Luca was not in the game I thought he was and from both games I read which we played together tends to a bit on the lurky side of the scale. I'll have to revisit that at some point.

And Ray, for clarities sake I do see what you're referring to, but she asked me the same question (or rather a question with the same answer) in literally her previous post, so I'm going to plead innocent on the whole answering for other people charge.

Re question regarding luca putting words in other people's mouths, I suppose I used the wrong wording, I'll get back to that sometime later or forget and then get back to it when someone asks

Consider yourself asked, when you have the time. I'll bring it up again if I must, but this needs to be addressed.

[Jingle]

As of this point in the game, I have two fairly strong town reads, 3 fairly strong scumreads, and 2 leans scum reads. I am relatively certain that the 3 strong scum reads are not scum together (though I could easily see being right about 2/3). The last player sits just on the town side of the null town border, but is by no means a strong read. I believe both of my town reads are voting town, but am significantly less sure about one than the other. I am not willing to put names to any of these players at this time, but will be happy to when certain things resolve themselves.

My feelings wrt Korts remain largely unchanged, but a conflicting scumread and associatives leads me to believe this is a better vote:

VOTE: RayFrost

I saw Reck describe Jingle's play as being 'theatrical'. I think that's a good way of summarising why I feel uncomfortable with his play.

My play is very theatrical, which is a null tell from me. There's a far better reason to be uncomfortable with my play, which I'll talk about in a couple days when the fallout from Luca and Korts settles. Mostly because it would interrupt my eating of popcorn, but also because it would taint a specific tool being used to further a tricky read.

I would actually be far more likely to do this as scum simply because it is an unlikely play btw.

Do you have any games you can link to to prove/provide evidence for this statement?

[Jingle]

You'll have to excuse me for not being satisfied having my gut twinge described away with self meta.

You're already excused.

I do feel like, however, that my vote is probably fine staying on Jingle for the moment.

Me too.

More to the point, it's not that I'm handing waving away either of your concerns, but rather that I'm promising there's a point. I don't think that your gut scum read on me IS because I'm theatrical, because I'm always theatrical. I think your gut scumread on me has more to do with the underlying feeling behind the theatricality, that I'm working from a plan. I also think that once I explain said plan, much of your gut scumread will make a lot more sense to you. Speaking of:

Jingle - I don't like his meta-reading technique very much, and everything he does is overdone, but I read genuine intent in most of what he posts.

I have not made a single townmotivated post in this entire game with the exception of my vote on Ray Frost. The rest of that post wasn't townmotivated. I've intentionally been spewing nulltells left, right and center this entire game (which you've picked up on to at least some extent), and yet, for some reason I'm your third strongest townread because I read as genuine? When literally the rest of your reasoning regarding me is things that should be considered suspicious? I'm calling bullshit. The only reasons I'm not jumping up and down screaming from the rafters after your lynch right now is that I'm barely above your null reads, Luca is doing something very similar, and I have other suspicions I want to flesh out. Consider this a challenge to find where I come across as genuine.

In the same vein, my biggest concern with Luca is that he clearly thinks I'm town. He's been answering for me in a way that subtly suggests he's defending me without outright saying it, 25, which sets off all of my buddying alarms. He's been assuming he knows why I'm posting what I'm posting without considering alternatives, 26, which is a major red flag that he's not actually trying to work out my alignment. Generally, he thinks I'm town, and I think he should think I'm null. Especially at the top of page 2. I'd love an explanation as to what made you so sure I was town, Luca.

I'm drawing a blank on why Key should be voting you. That said, I'm also drawing a blank on who Key is voting, and why. Can you guys both explain?

Key is clearly dancing around a scumread on me, but isn't doing anything to further said read or put pressure on me. I'll go back and double check, but assuming she knows I like to be put to L-1 early and often as both alignments, the reasoning for that is spotty. Since she chose not to vote me, I explained that not voting at all is antitown she has sheeped insanity's case on CoA, but at the time was voting no one. Her response to being questioned was all about the activity surrounding me (not actually me specifically, as pointed out by CoA) and not at all about the case she finds compelling, or her own scumreads, or anything else. A pair of mitigating factors here are that most of the activity HAS been around me to some extent so far and she has been inactive, but I don't think that explains away all of it. Regardless, bigger fish to fry (and frankly, I'd like to see her get her sea legs under her and wow me.)

If anyone wants an in depth analysis of any individual posts, feel free to ask.

And, just to clear up any remaining confusion:

VOTE: RayFrost

[Jingle]

@Jingle Your post above was mostly about your suspicions for Keychain and Luca Blight

and Korts

. So, why are you voting for RayFrost?

Bolded mine.

This is a horrible question. Isn't the entire point of this game that town are genuinely trying to scumhunt and scum are faking it?

Have you played with Keychain before for her to know this? Assuming she does know this, wouldn't Keychain!scum have been more likely to put you at L-1 for easy towncred?

Have you read my posts?

Also, to follow up on this, in the game I referenced I did not discuss my personal preference for being at L-1 in the main thread. I did discuss the importance of L-1's to the efficacy of VCA, and the silliness of being unwilling to vote people to L-1 while maintaining an expectation of no quickhammers/hammers without claims in the main thread. Considering she thanked me for the advice I gave her in the scum PT and said it helped her win another game, I'm fairly certain she took the advice and theory crafting to heart.

[Jingle]

As of this point in the game, I have two fairly strong town reads, 3 fairly strong scumreads, and 2 leans scum reads. I am relatively certain that the 3 strong scum reads are not scum together (though I could easily see being right about 2/3). The last player sits just on the town side of the null town border, but is by no means a strong read. I believe both of my town reads are voting town, but am significantly less sure about one than the other. I am not willing to put names to any of these players at this time, but will be happy to when certain things resolve themselves.
not sure what the entire point of this paragraph is. So easy to retcon as scum, while being no use to town.

Not so easy as you'd think to retcon as scum. There's also no reason to want to retcon it as scum, as "my reads changed, but this is what they were" will always be closer to the truth and less suspicious. Mostly, I just want to see how people's pushes pan out without risking them sheeping me or letting my lack of giving a shit about their cases matter.

I have not made a single townmotivated post in this entire game with the exception of my vote on Ray Frost. The rest of that post wasn't townmotivated. I've intentionally been spewing nulltells left, right and center this entire game (which you've picked up on to at least some extent), and yet, for some reason I'm your third strongest townread because I read as genuine? When literally the rest of your reasoning regarding me is things that should be considered suspicious? I'm calling bullshit. The only reasons I'm not jumping up and down screaming from the rafters after your lynch right now is that I'm barely above your null reads, Luca is doing something very similar, and I have other suspicions I want to flesh out. Consider this a challenge to find where I come across as genuine.

Eh?
"spewing nulltells"? This paragraph puzzles me. Like having such a firm fixed idea of how other players should be perceiving you seems unlikely.

Is your issue with this that I shouldn't be aware of how other people will perceive me? Cause I am, a good 70% of the time, just as a matter of the style of play I have and the sheer number of games I've read. Is your issue that you see either Kort's or Luca's townreads on me as reasonable? If so, elaborate. Is your issue that you don't think I'm right about how I'm being treated there? If so, elaborate.

As far as nulltells, kicking us out of RVS is null. Arguing theory is null. Surface level scumhunting, the kind where I just say "Person X is scum" is null until there are flips to go with it. Withholding reads with a reason behind it is null.

As far as the theory bit, VCA, which is likely the strongest scumhunting tool we have this game, works best when many people hit L-1 early and often. Ari has just demonstrated in his post why lolhammers amongst experienced non-trolls (Read, the geriatric playerbase) are tantamount to scumclaims, so as long as you announce L-1, there's absolutely no fear associated with putting someone in that position other than the fear of justifying your vote later, which means either you think it's a justified vote and should make it or you don't and should not. I addressed this mostly when talking to Kam and Faraday (Not that one) about their reluctance to ever vote, but also when I replaced in and there was only really two wagons to analyze D1. And for what it's worth, I never intentionally lie about game theory in the R2R. Mislead? All the time. But anything I posted there that was game theory is either something I genuinely believe to be at least conditionally true.

[Jingle]

As town I am usually very worries about lolhammers. I have been burned by them too many times, even being on the receiving end on Page one once. It suchs and it really hurts town's chances even when scum is lynched by it! As scum, I have lolhammered or set up situations where it can be a possibility many times. The reason I prefer L-1 as scum over the actual lolhammer is because it has become almost a scumtell of mine as I can think of probably 5 distinct times when I lolhammered as scum, and I never EVER do it as town! Maybe once? But I don't even think so. That's part of what I mean by unexpected play.

In Mini 1969 (Also, your most recent game I can find, with an end date of yesterday) you had ample opportunity to drop an L-1 vote in a town full of lolhammer players and chose not to. In the werewolf thread, you explicitly say your style means you would always talk out the wagon before voting when Boon asks you to lay down your vote. You have literally no reason to lie to your scumpartner in that situation. Why are you provably lying to me here?

Also, ftr, metadiving listmods is tedious as hell because they close and lock so MANY GAMES.

[Jingle]

Recent Ari games:

1819 Newbie- Lolhammers as scum, feigns thinking its an L-1

1828 Newbie- Favorable response to a lolhammer on scum as conftown.

686 Open- Part of a lolhammer (he was l-4 and the lynch happened less than a page later), doesn't complain in the twilight or the dead thread after being shot the next night and town wins.

692 Open- Ari drops L-1 reluctantly at deadline as scum.

Combine that with:

Mini 1969- 240 is L-2. Ari posts seven times the last of which is 275, so clearly he is present. 281 one of the people leaves the wagon.

Subject: Mini Normal 1969 Werewolf Thread

It'd be sketch as fuck for me to before catching up, and my playstyle would have me talk out the wagon first.

I would if I could

Add the inconsistency between 82 and 88 here?

Ari is caught scum. I'm going to be the vengekill, because bussing in this setup is insane and thus I'm obviously town. I do NOT want a hammer on him until I've had time to pursue and expound upon my other reads, because I believe I have solved this game. If I have, I feel I must admit I'm very disappointed, given how much I've been looking forward to playing with some of you. Still, needs must and winning a game is enough of a consolation prize that I will have to content myself with it.

[Jingle]

I shouldn't be double posting and I apologize, but what exactly is the inconsistency between 82 and 88? Like, I see where I selfmeta'd incorrectly (I guess my playstyle has evolved without me noticing) and I do believe it is dependant on the game and situation. So what inconsistency are you seeing?

You'll forgive me, of course, but you've convinced me of nothing. And it is an exercise in futility for me to try to convince you that you're scum. Should anyone else need the assistance in seeing why you are scum, I'll expound, but to be honest it seems like a waste of my time.

insanity, I responded to you by quoting you. Either I'm scum hunting, or I'm faking scum hunting. In either case, I'm going to tell you I'm scum hunting. In either case, I think having my vote on Ray means more than having it on anyone else. In either case, your question is going to get you no where.

[Jingle]

I'm glad we can get nowhere too. If literally anyone else has questions about why you're scum, it's worth going over. If it's just a back and forth with you about something that's fairly obvious, that's clogging the thread with bullshit to make it unreadable.

I haven't talked about my scumread on Frost yet, nor will I until he's put a bit more into the thread. I do want to pursue it before you have a chance to venge me. I also think it might be more important for the rest of town if I'm off the wagon when we powerlynch you, but we'll see what comes in the next few days. If, somehow, you lying in a LAMIST way about how you act as scum, doubling down when presented with contrary evidence and explaining said evidence away with an "It's situational" handwave, and then throwing your hands in the air and saying I guess I don't know my own meta when confronted with a reasonably in depth meta dive proving that not only is that not your meta, but it hasn't been for a reasonably long time is town (A hint: it's not) then you should be focusing on scumhunting now more than ever.

In post 56, RayFrost wrote:
Re question regarding luca putting words in other people's mouths, I suppose I used the wrong wording, I'll get back to that sometime later or forget and then get back to it when someone asks


Consider yourself asked, when you have the time. I'll bring it up again if I must, but this needs to be addressed.

Ray! I'm getting lonely. Come back and talk to meeee.

[Jingle]

Oh, hey. This is entirely off topic, but inappropriate to send by pm because it was directly influenced by this game. I’ve decided to run a jester nightless in the micro queue, Keychain. Any of you are welcome to prein, though I expect it to be functionally the opposite of a geriatric game. I mention this here because I ran into keychain commenting on an old jester nightless game of mine in a dead thread while meta-ing and felt it would be inappropriate to pm due to the confirmation that I AM in fact reading through other games. As Key can tell you, my use of meta shouldn’t be an alignment tell for me, but I wanted to avoid even the possibility of giving additional information to just one person in the game. And now I’m going to sleep for 12 hours or until someone wakes me up with an emergency.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Responses

There's not much happening except Jingle being obstructive. I hope people will be coming back from New Year's holidays soon.

First, not being open with my reads isn't necessarily the same as being obstructive. I've been doing the former. I've been actively avoiding the latter. I definitely echo the latter sentiment though.

I see later on that insanity has also noticed this comment from Keychain. It is indeed a good point.

Jingle, why haven't you voted Keychain?

Because she is neither my primary suspect for scum nor the person I think needs the most pressure to post at the moment. I would like to point out that I'm also not spending all of my time talking about her, so...

What?

Why are you under the impression that anyone would hammer Ari here? Nobody is voting him. Not even you are. I don't even understand how you think he's caught.

I am tired of your reaction baiting bullshit. Make your case if you have one. Is it just that Aristo's meta is not consistent over time and place? I mean, Jesus. There comes a point where you have to stop reading other games and play the one in front of you.

I was under the impression that the case was fairly self evident, but given both yours and insanity's responses that may be hoping too much.

Spoiler: Aristophanes Case

The first post of any real significance of Ari's is also when he responds to Luca in 48. Prior to that point he hands out easy townreads for 'having similar thoughtprocesses to him' to people who express their thoughts first or don't actually agree with him but rather question him, showing a very surface level approach to the game at best and outright buddying at worst. Seriously, read 48's response to insanity, and tell me that's not manipulative bullshit. It's very much trying to look like he's doing something, very little actually doing something.

I didn't move my vote because IIRC that would have been L-1 and it was far too early for that. I don't think anyone here would lolhammer but I also didn't feel it was egregious enough to warrant that so early in the game.

This, however, was enough to pique interest. First, Ari is experienced enough to know that voting, especially in this style of game where the relational tells and VCA are far more important than other other aspects of scumhunting is incredibly protown, but he's not doing it. He acknowledges that he is aware we don't really have to worry about lolhammer troll players as much in a geriatric game, meaning he shouldn't be concerned with L-1 at all. And still, while doing this, he continues to waffle on exactly everything. He's expressed just the one scumread, on me, but still waffles about how he feels about me :

28-30 I am tor on and will go back to look at later. I don't dislike them on a surface level but something is keeping me from calling them towny and i'm not sure what it is atm.

Ari, on the other hand said much the same thing, once, earlier. Additionally, he didn't just get done playing with me in a game where I'm fairly certain that I mentioned one of my goals starting out most games is to hit L-1 early regardless of Role PM because I find it easier as both alignments to work from a position where I can analyze a wagon on me, making the egregiousness of his infraction much smaller. Had he voted me, however, I would have been almost assured of his town status.

I would actually be far more likely to do this as scum simply because it is an unlikely play btw. Doesn't really matter much to discussion, but I think it is an interesting note.

I need one more day as I am off to work and have a holiday party tn (I may get a chance to phonepost there, but I'd prefer not to so I can edit and trim posts with ease instead of making bulky ones).

And yes, even with this ruleset I will be low posting and proddodging at times. At least it gives me a chance to engage when I am here though!

This is the point where he turned into a scumlean for me. Scum love to quote posts about how they are town (which that wasn't technically, but the sentiment is the same in this case) while poking holes in the logic. It makes them look town while reinforcing the feeling of the original post. He showcases his self consciousness AND he makes pretty much the poster child LAMIST post. Which, of course is utter bullshit.

87 from me is where I link to a game where he had a perfect scum win. A game he played from beginning to end, clearly enjoyed thoroughly from the endgame and scum PT posts (easily verifiable) and a game that literally ended days ago. A game that directly contravenes his LAMIST personal meta about how he'd do this exact thing as scum. A game that, to be perfectly frank, he would not have forgotten things about so quickly.

He responds with 88, which is the scummiest sort of backpedal.

Uh, It's situational I suppose? In that instance I was not caught up and therefore would never have voted an L-1. If I am caught up or it is early on I am far more likely to as

I can create a basis for the vote, reason it out, and if not discuss it with myself, discuss it with the people in the thread.

In fact, I did that D3 of the game when we were playing all or nothing because I was reasonably caught up and could hold a conversation about it.

In that game I also did Lolhammer, and I was obvscum because of it. That's why it is something I typically avoid. It really does depend on game, playerbase, and how I'm feeling at the time. However the meta I presented you is the truer version of my overall approach, despite this example which shows otherwise.

Emphasis mine. Not only does this describe exactly the opposite of what I was saying would make him likely town, but it's damn near close to what he did. He started talking about how he would start looking for a way to justify the vote (like maybe repeatedly mentioning that it feels odd) instead of why he would drop an unexplained L-1 at the beginning of the game as scum. This is a classic example of moving the goalposts. I caught him lying, in a way that town clearly has no reason to, and his response is to jump into a hyperdefensive post that abandons the reasoning he had originally entirely. If that's not scum, I don't know what is. And after I dig up the REST OF HIS GAMES FROM THE LAST 4 MONTHS, ALL OF WHICH ARE DIRECT EVIDENCE CONTRARY TO HIS SELF META, he throws his hands in the air in 90 and comes back 3 minutes later to congratulate me based on, of all things, the amount of effort I've put into the game.

But worst of all? Worst of all is that after all of this, he jumps right after insanity not believing my suspicions to discredit the case on him in 93. Apparently, proving that he's lying about something that has a clear and present scum motivation (and in a way that he both agreed with and congratulated) is me "pushing a narrative." Since then, he's done bugger all except to poke at me still without laying down a vote, while still avoiding a direct 1v1 because he knows he can't win it.

tl;dr: Ari is very clearly scum, but we still have quite a bit of discussion left to be had today.

And, because the more I reread this post the more I reread Korts telling me he's tired of reaction baity bullshit, you can go ahead and fuck off on that account. I've explained my reads on 4 different players at this point, and am clearly both waiting on responses from and attempting to engage with a fifth, who remains largely absent from the thread. I have provided reads on all of the others, which with even a cursory amount of thought are decipherable. I haven't been "reaction-baiting" since explaining why your townread on me was suspicious, and have inarguably put more content into this thread than the majority of players. Criticize me if you want for not wanting to take you by the hand and guide you through every little thought process I have, but be aware that I won't be shoved off into a corner and ignored easily.

[Jingle]

The first question asks me to analyze the plan I've already explained, and thus I don't really think it's necessary. As for the second question, yes, Luca answering for me is suspicious, mostly because the way he's doing it shows that he's assuming my alignment. The specifics of the "answering for other people" problem are less egregious by comparison. If he had a good reason to hardtownread me, then assuming he knows what I mean would make sense. It'd be annoying, but it'd make sense. Similarly, assuming he understands my intentions for the first part is understandable. RVS -> Clearly a joke isn't exactly a hard leap to take. His preemptive response to 17 is worse, but again, if he can manage to explain why exactly I was such a strong town read at that point it gets far less egregious. The worst, though, would be his response to Ari that is both answering a question posed to CoA and softly defending me.

Still, I have yet to do the meta dive on Luca that will tell me if this kind of behavior is scum indicative, town indicative, or just annoying. I will do that, eventually, but for now, sitting back and letting you put the pressure on Luca tells me I'll have interactions between the two of you to analyse and neither of you will fade into the background, so I can focus on other people.

[Jingle]

This is me, acknowledging recent posts and expressing my belief that nothing needs a follow up from me yet.

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Korts

I was thinking about what my genuine intent read on Jingle meant. It wasn't intent, it was purpose that I saw. The seams between the paragraphs are quite visible, and there is a man with a needle on the other side. I will have to re-examine the tapestry that he has woven to see who's behind it.

Hm.

Can you condense and simplify?

Apparently this is going to be a thing, because you aren't even close to the only person misunderstanding the thrust of my case. Will focus on reacting to other things for now, but I should have the time to pull apart and explain my wall later.

No offense was meant with the reaction baiting bullshit. What I meant was you seem to be laying traps and leaving prompts and breadcrumbing all over the place, which I don't find as constructive as being transparent.

For example, this plan you have alluded to, and claim to have explained. I have seen no explanation, and the post you linked is not one of yours.

Ah... My mistake there. The post was meant to be two further down the page. Specifically in the third section, where I talk about you and Luca. The plan was to do things solely to get the game moving, without being easy to read or putting my reads into the thread. In this case, I did this to get a good sense of how people were reacting to someone showing signs of competence but not signs of being town. Scum generally tend to either buddy or waffle those people, while town tend towards paranoia and outright scumreads. It's actually pretty much worked perfectly this game as far as the number of reads it's gotten me. Pending flips confirming suspicions, I'm comfortable calling it a success.

I actually find that replacement pretty scummy.

Why?

Spoiler: Ray Responses

Just gonna start with saying I know jingle wants me to react to the vote on me in some way, but this is the limit of what I can say in response to it. "Okay."

What the hell is LAMIST? I've seen it used several times now and can't for the life of me figure out what it's supposed to stand for.

"Look at me, I'm so town!" Basically, it means a post whose sole motivation is to prove the person making it is town rather than to actively scumhunt. Pretty much the inverse of "too scummy to be scum".

For other Jingle related things: I really dislike using meta to describe / explain everything, including your own play. While there's a certain amount of influence meta should have on your reads, it definitely shouldn't be

the

thing you rely on. People change. How they think changes. Situations and circumstances being different will change how they behave. It's not as cut and dry as "they were like this before so they will be like this again in this situation." In no small part because the situation is not exactly the same. Also, people who are aware of their own meta are capable of actively playing along with / against it.

That's just an in general mafia discussion style comment, though.

/off topic discussion

I tend to rely on meta to supplement reads, because otherwise I find myself tunneling constantly. I also have both the inclination and sporadic bursts of free time required to read a large number of games, though not the consistent free time to play in many at a time (hence, geriatric). Meta is not the focus of my scumhunting, nor even my strongest tool in mafia (I'm a gametheory player at heart), but it is a tool that can and should be used to supplement your other tools.

tl;dr I agree completely with your statement and feel you've missed the thrust of my argument about Ari.

/return to relevancy

Summation of my case from his understanding.

Incorrect on several levels, but adequate. I will address my actual case in an attempt at clarification later, as I mentioned to Korts earlier.

Regarding Luca putting words in other people's mouth thing, I suppose the more correct wording would be "responding to questions addressed to other people and saying the answers were ~obvious~" - I am typically suspect of calling things obvious (especially when I feel they're not) when it comes to other people's reasoning. It's not saying that it's what they're trying to say, but this post as well as the one below it are mostly along the lines of "they're clearly doing A" - others may read it differently, but that's the feel I get from it. Korts may be wording things better than me about it.

I don't see anything suspect about not putting people at L-1, so commentary from Jingle saying keychain is suspect for that I disagree with - I also am generally finding keychain townish at the moment aside from that. Similarly have town-leaning reads on Korts and insanity.

I'd appreciate an expansion on the Korts read, if one is available to be had.

Spoiler: Ray Follow Up

You've made a lot more slight comprehension errors than I'd normally expect from you. How closely would you say you're reading the thread?
Do you have any particularly strong reads at this time? I see a few weak ones, but nothing strong. If not, do you have any particular reasons behind that?

Spoiler: Hopkirk

First, thanks for replacing in! It's good to see you again, though it has been years.

I feel like I should try and look scummy so Jingle metadives me and I can learn something. He seems to have a lot of time there.

Request acknowledged. I will probably meta you naturally at some point during the game, given the lack of nightkills, but if nothing else and assuming you mean this remind me in the postgame and I'll do a thorough analysis for you.

The rest of 120 is , but I don't have the time today to try and wrap my head around the why behind the feeling.

As far as activity, Ray is right about the holidays, but I doubt we'll ever be much more active collectively than me and Korts were for the peak activity from this game. I'd expect to see one or two real content posts per person per day, with more in times of heated argument. Remember, the 10 post bit is a limit, not a guideline.

[Jingle]

As of this point in the game, I have two fairly strong town reads, 3 fairly strong scumreads, and 2 leans scum reads.

At this point, the strong town reads were Reck and insanity, I had a slight townlean on CoA (Now hopkirk), slight scumreads on Ari and Key.

Korts and Luca were both fairly strong scumreads (that haven't really changed much, no matter how much I want to townread Korts on playstyle) that I've already gone into. Should anyone want a reasoned read as of post 69, let me know and I'll go back and find the points in favor/ against that person. Since that time, I have had my reads on CoA and Key both move towards null. Ari should be rather obvious.

Ray, on the other hand, I have not gone into.

I dislike the specificity of what Jingle calls goodposting as it seems to revolve around opinions that match his own.

This, in reference to my post 28, shows a clear lack of understanding of what I'm referring to. He accuses me of just trying to say people who agree with me are making good posts, which is not only patently untrue but displays a clear lack of knowledge of what I was calling goodposting. In the same post, he sheeps the language (putting things in my mouth) I used in post 28 with regards to Luca, expanding it to apply to myself. Clearly, he has put some thought into post 28, yet not enough to read the posts mentioned in it to see half of them literally talking about disagreeing with me. I'm also not a fan of his response to CoA's Key vote. It reads more like someone looking for a reason to scumread someone than someone looking for motivation.

The concept that 18 is scummy because she should be doing more at that point of the game is at the very least weak, and comes across as disingenuous to me. Saying there was no point to voting someone while asking them a question on page one is incredibly bleh. Whether CoA's activity after that is scum motivated is up for debate, but that at least comes as faking a reason to call someone scummy, which is, incidentally, exactly what Ray claims was scummy about 18. His recent posting is better, but still not enough to dissolve the scumread.

Btw, the criteria for goodposting in those posts was that the players in question were probing multiple people, as opposed to focusing in on one person. This setup highly incentivizes scum to avoid bussing, to tunnel on individual players, and to avoid associative tells both with their partners and with town. Town, on the other hand, should attempt to interact with as many people as they possibly can. And, by stating this outright, I'm making this tell completely useless for the rest of the game.

Spoiler: Aristophanes Case, Redux

This time, I'm going to ignore the evidence, in order to focus on the actual behavior that was scummy, since that seems to be the place where everyone's comprehension gets messed up.

I would actually be far more likely to do this as scum simply because it is an unlikely play btw. Doesn't really matter much to discussion, but I think it is an interesting note.

This post, or rather segment of a post, is inherently scummy because it is a statement of I would do behavior A as scum. I am not doing behavior A here.

Clearly, the implication is that we should be townreading him. It's an aside, meant to be unobtrusive and go under the radar, but the clear scum motivation is present. It is also provably a lie, meaning it is incredibly unlikely that it was unintentional that he was looking for the towncred here, pointing even further to scum motivation.

When asked about evidence, he shifted the argument. He claimed that the particular instance I found was nonrepresentative, and then twisted it around to point to why he doesn't personally lolhammer, though he did in that game. He didn't say "Oh, I guess I was wrong." He didn't withdraw the statement. He didn't reevaluate his response. Any of these would point to a genuine misunderstanding of his meta. Any of these would have given me cause to doubt my reasoning leading to Ari is scum. Instead, he tried to change the focus.

When confronted with evidence, he shifts the argument. He assigns a set of conditions to the behavior, getting more specific rather than less about the circumstances in which he would vote L-1 and focusing harder on the attempt to shift the argument to actually lolhammering. He says that the game I referenced is also an exception to the other bit of self meta he provided, as though that would excuse the lie. In short, every single piece of 88 is designed to say that the evidence I have doesn't really matter.

After further evidence, he at first throws his hands up in the air and gives up saying simply that he isn't scum. But then, with very little prompting, he comes back to claim that I'm pushing a narrative and that my posting is "convenient" (literally the only word that I can see that being.)

tl;dr It isn't the meta that makes him scum. It's the lie and the reactions. And not even that he lied, but HOW he lied.

FWIW, his recent behavior is also exactly how scum Ari should play this too. Town should realize that at this point they will eventually be lynched and put their effort into getting information into the thread. If he were town, he'd know that when he flips green we'll have a reason to listen closely to anything he had to say. Instead, he's clammed up, not talking to anybody or making any kind of associative tells, which is exactly what scum who know they CAN'T make it to the endgame should do in this situation.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have one more thing to post before day's end. I've been working on an associative tell chart, but I don't want to let the information out prematurely to avoid manipulation by scum. I want to post that chart (or more likely a list of conclusions so I don't have to deal with formatting it) before day end, so please no L-1 votes on Ari until we're ready for the hammer. I find him selfhammering at this point to be very likely.

[Jingle]

Aw man, I was on board until your last sentence. Why do you keep getting ahead of yourself?

Do you disagree that Ari is scum, that I should be confident in this read, that Ari as scum would selfhammer at this point, or that Ari as scum would use the vengekill on me at this point?

Why would Ari as scum knowingly lie about his meta? It seems to me that lack of awareness of his own play is not alignment indicative. Or am I still missing the point somewhere?

Simply, because it was a fairly safe lie to make. Not only was it an easy grab at towncred and unlikely to be called out, but a casual meta dive by someone who was just looking for broad strokes likely wouldn't even catch it. By the time it became apparent I was going to scrutinize the behavior, he'd already committed to it. The meta evidence I provided is pretty much all about why he would be unlikely to be aware of the shift in his meta. For reiteration's sake, the issue came up in one way or another in his last five games. Every single one of his last five games. And he had enough self awareness in the most recent to provide a wildly different account of when he would or wouldn't drop an L-1 vote. The odds that he's mistaken or that his meta shifted without his awareness are vanishingly low.

Furthermore, there is no reason for him to lie in this way as town.

[Jingle]

Welcome, ASP. I know your username, but cannot place it at the moment. I apologize if our prior interactions warrant a more personalized greeting.

@Jingle: could you specify the key point on Ari’s meta?

Mostly, the meta is evidence that he lied about his meta in this game. His last five games ALL have situations directly contradicting his claimed meta in this game. The way and reason he brought up the meta itself is what makes him scum. Basically, the meta is how I know he's lying. The lie is what makes him scum.

I actually find that replacement pretty scummy.

Since a couple people have mentioned this... I just think CoA did enough scummy shit that the drop out looks more in response to pressure than most replacements I've seen.

This is circular logic.

Jingle, I like you more when you're being open, rather than when you are being more obscure and reaction testing. Previously, you have refused to answer questions about your scumread on RayFrost until Ray posted (eg 96). What were you looking to find (or not find) in Ray's posts?

I very rarely look to get a specific reaction, but I'll do my best to answer in broad strokes. I wanted him to know I suspected him, but not what for. I wanted to see if he would review and change positions without prompting, whether he would continue skimming the thread, who he would push if left alone, how he would respond to the slight pressure he was under, whether he would follow up on 50, and whether he would go back over old material without prompting. I was also fairly curious to see if anyone would jump to push him or rush to his defense, although I haven't noticed any of that.

Suffice to say, 119 and 128 are both pretty uninspiring, and he remains a strong scumread.

[Jingle]

Mostly, the meta is evidence that he lied about his meta in this game. His last five games ALL have situations directly contradicting his claimed meta in this game. The way and reason he brought up the meta itself is what makes him scum. Basically, the meta is how I know he's lying. The lie is what makes him scum.

Why would I do this, unprompted, if I were scum? You make literally no sense here!

133

This continues to not be how town reacts to the accusations, or the incredibly unsubtle attempts to get him to get him to do anything resembling scumhunting, FWIW.

Can you explain this further? If someone in a certain position acts in a way you would expect from scum in that position, why is scumreading them for that circular logic?

That is not the circular logic. Reck in essence said that the replace out is scummy because the slot was scummy in the first place. That's not a reason for the replacement itself to be scummy, but rather a read on the slot pre replacement. I asked why he said the replacement itself was scummy. If it's unclear, I'd appreciate a follow up here.

Given scum have daytalk, I also don't really see why a self-hammer is a danger.

This is... wow.

I

have things I want to say before the lynch happens, because I'm fairly certain I'm going to be the vengekill. That has absolutely nothing to with scum having daychat. Why would a selfhammer be more likely if scum didn't have daychat?

I can't decide if that is just hubris

Given that the wagon is at L-2 without me being on it, I'm gonna go ahead and rule out "just hubris" as an option. The discussion here is valuable in my opinion. Asking for people to keep him out of selfhammer range isn't arrogance, it's foresight.

[Jingle]

I am here, but still not capable of posting anything meaningful today.

[Jingle]

Associatives incoming.

[Jingle]

Korts- Likely not scum with Luca or reck slots. Slightly higher than normal chance with Key and Ray, needs to be looked into.
xRECKONERx- Likely not scum with korts, probably not scum from early ties to ari.
RayFrost- Decent scumpartner to most of thread. Look here closely. Not Scum with ASP.
Aristophanes-
Hopkirk- Probably not scum with Ray, Key, Insanity. Ray is based on the presumption of CoA being newbie, not alt. Meta worth looking at here.
A Simple Plan- Not scum with Korts, Ray.
Keychain- not scum with insanity, probs not scum with CoA.
insanity018- If scum, one of luca/korts likely scum. Her CoA wagon came at a point where any scum other than a buddy of one of them (or me I guess) has no impetus to start a new wagon. Not scum with CoA or Key.

I'd explain more, but I really don't have the time to post more today. IF Ari hasn't self voted, I'll be around to answer specifics and stuff this weekend. (probably Sunday)

[Jingle]

If, somehow, you lying in a LAMIST way about how you act as scum, doubling down when presented with contrary evidence and explaining said evidence away with an "It's situational" handwave, and then throwing your hands in the air and saying I guess I don't know my own meta when confronted with a reasonably in depth meta dive proving that not only is that not your meta, but it hasn't been for a reasonably long time is town (A hint: it's not) then you should be focusing on scumhunting now more than ever.

Hey, remember when I described what town Ari should do and it was not what he's doing now? I do. Good times.

Also, I spent all day judging magic tournaments because apparently I'm a masochist and I'm too exhausted to be helpful tonight. I'll see yall tomorrow.

[Jingle]

Sup, Golden Man.

Korts- Likely not scum with Luca or reck slots. Slightly higher than normal chance with Key and Ray, needs to be looked into.
xRECKONERx- Likely not scum with korts, probably not scum from early ties to ari.
RayFrost- Decent scumpartner to most of thread. Look here closely. Not Scum with ASP.
Aristophanes-
Hopkirk- Probably not scum with Ray, Key, Insanity. Ray is based on the presumption of CoA being newbie, not alt. Meta worth looking at here.
A Simple Plan- Not scum with Korts, Ray.
Keychain- not scum with insanity, probs not scum with CoA.
insanity018- If scum, one of luca/korts likely scum. Her CoA wagon came at a point where any scum other than a buddy of one of them (or me I guess) has no impetus to start a new wagon. Not scum with CoA or Key.

I'd explain more, but I really don't have the time to post more today. IF Ari hasn't self voted, I'll be around to answer specifics and stuff this weekend. (probably Sunday)

I've already explained the Luca/Korts and Korts/Reck interactions, at least partially. The Ray/ASP connection, similarly, is somewhere in my ISO.

Reck/Ari is unlikely from the early Ari sheeping. Particularly 39 seems weird from a scumpartner.

Outside of that, Ari has pretty carefully not been making associative tells (by mostly just not posting content since he fell under suspicion) which is further cementing my scumread there. There's not much to be said because there's not much to analyze. Unfortunately, pretty much anything he says at this point will by necessity be thrown on the fires of WIFOM.

The insanity sheep from Key came at a point where it didn't look like my Ari push really had legs, and there were three viable other options to choose from to sheep onto. Instead, key chose hopkirk. Lending sheeping support to a buddy's wagon there isn't likely from a scum perspective, nor is sheeping a buddy. Funnily enough, there are some pretty strong associatives suggesting me and Key are scum together, which I know to be false.

Similarly, insanity has no impetus to try and start the CoA wagon when she did if she's scum with neither Korts or Luca as partners. Sitting bad and letting them 1v1 would have been less effort for the same effect. Building what is arguably the best case at the time is a lot of effort that she simply didn't need as scum there.


If I forgot any of the connections, let me know. I'm heading off to buy some rum, but I may well be back later.

[Jingle]

I forgot about this game when allocating mafia time today. Also, I've run out of mafia time today.

[Jingle]

@mod

- Any news on ASP?

Also looking forward to the return of the Reckoner.

[Jingle]

Ari, on the off chance you are actually town, I'm sorry for sapping your want to play this game, I really would appreciate a readslist, even if its just a list from town to scum with gut listed by all of them.

If you're scum, I'm still sorry for sapping your want to play this game, but this is how I play mafia. I know that it can lead to people not having fun around me, and I'm sorry, but I have never been as successful when I try to be less prickly. Just know, whatever your alignment, that I still like you as a person and hope you can say the same about me.

With that said, I intend to vote Ari in the next day or two. I see no problem with a hammer at this point, although I think BlackVoid should get about 24 hours to catch up and share any earth shattering conclusions before then.

If I'm right, I should be the only possible vengekill option, particularly since my schedule should open up significantly now that I'm not actively involved with half a dozen other things on site that I can't talk about publicly.

If I'm wrong, Ari is the only person whose opinion cannot be heard post flip. I'm not seeing a lot forthcoming there either way. A replacement really can't argue down what is scummy about his play. He's been the lynch consensus for more than half of the game at this point. Taking more time is just a waste of ours.

[Jingle]

Actually

VOTE: Aristophanes

Puts him back to L-1, which I have no problem with.

Apparently the Ray replace switched to Hopkirk.

[Jingle]

TBH, I wouldn't be upset if you did. It doesn't really stifle conversation, and Ari has had like a week and a half to give reads at this point.

I genuinely believe he is struggling to give a shit about this game. I also believe that that is in fact alignment indicative at this point.

[Jingle]

I'll PM Gurgi so he knows something actually happened.

[Jingle]

Gut on everyone else?

[Jingle]

VOTE: RayFrost

Fight me please.

Ray was replaced by me...

Is that really all you have to say?

[Jingle]

Day One continues. Five to lynch.

Vote Count

Aristophanes

[5 Posts] (5) -

TGP

, Hopkirk, insanity018, Korts, Jingle, xRECKONERx

Hopkirk

[9 Posts] (1) -

Keychain

Korts

[10 Posts] (1) -

BlackVoid

TGP

[10 Posts] (1) -

Jingle

Jingle

[5 Posts] (0) -

None

BlackVoid

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

xRECKONERx

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(1) -

Aristophanes

Current Deadline:

None.

Impending Prods

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2018-01-21 00:00:01)

Aristophanes is dead. He was a Vanilla Townie.

Fixed, for ya'lls convenience. I have more reads than confidence in reads at this point, which means I need to step back and reevaluate. I'm also heading to an RPG group that frowns on spending the entire night on ms, so this is probably my last post till tomorrow.

[Jingle]

Prod dodge until I finish my work for the day. Then you guys get an hour or two. If I haven't come to any new revelations, I'm probably jumping onto the Bronzish Parasox.

[Jingle]

I reread the entire game, realized I don't really give a shit about this game, and my reads haven't really changed much since the last time I talked about them.

VOTE: Golden Paradox

L-1.

I like the company, dislike the slot, and don't really care enough about the game to try and make people engage anymore.

I could be convinced to wagon anyone outside of {me, reck, insanity, hiplop) at this point, btw.

[Jingle]

Hopkirk. I have read entirely too many words today.

[Jingle]

Your sudden cavalier attitude is highly unsettling, Jingle.

I understand the rest of your townreads, but what justifies Hopkirk's position there?

I have been unexpectedly busy with something that I cannot really go into detail about but which is public information. Suffice to say, I made a commitment, and it is taking up more time than I expected. There is a reason I'm not playing in or modding any other games at the moment, that I expected to be significantly less time consuming at this point but has failed to quiet down. It will likely be months before I can go into this in any meaningful fashion.

As far as my specific lack of motivation for this game, well, I feel like that is something that is pretty obvious. We lynched my deathtunnel target, and he was town. The player I was most excited about playing with (Ray) replaced out. The rest of the playerlist (who tbf, are mostly pretty awesome candidates to get me excited for a game) have failed to interact with either me or each other in meaningful ways for days at a time. And not a couple days here or there, but where we had literally 0 forward momentum for a solid week.

The Hopkirk (Don't Lynch) read is for a few things. I still don't agree with insanity's CoA case. I think the replacement was nulltown. I think Hopkirk himself has been mostly null, although I liked his interaction with the Ari wagon. Most importantly though? He's actively trying to drive the game forward, and I really don't see that changing. Lynching him leaves us even deader in the water, which is pretty much the worst case scenario for town here regardless of his alignment. At least if he's scum he's active scum and we have a chance to build good reads on him based on flips and who he's pushing.

I agree with Reck's 270 on Korts. I'd prefer to lynch TGP or LucaSlot over him because I think a scumflip in either of those gives us a reasonable Korts town expectation and I think he has the ability to rally town if he tries. I could still compromise on a Korts lynch for today if someone has a decent argument though.

If I have more time, I'll probably do some meta dives. This probably won't happen in the near future, unfortunately.

[Jingle]

Are you saying you've liked any of TGP's posts lately Reck? If so, I'd be fascinated as to why.

[Jingle]

UNVOTE:

[Jingle]

Busy today. FML.

Would like to ask no hammers til Wednesday, because I hope to be able to do all of my meta work (and actually put the flavor into my completed game then). If I haven't finished it by then, it's not gonna be soon and I'll just have to play without meta backing me up. I will NOT need to replace out of this game and am caught up. Just not able to devote the time I'd like to devote to getting inside people's heads at the moment. (JSYK, this game is my #2 ms priority at this point, and I've been spending about 5 hours per day on ms. Hopefully, that'll change real fast.)

[Jingle]

I'm gonna hammer tomorrow night, regardless of whether I have the time to meta.

[Jingle]

VOTE: TGP

I did his meta first. I'm gonna do some more after. BV, your request for time to catch up has been noted and promptly ignored, because there's no way in fuck you're the vengekill so delaying the hammer is

[Jingle]

Notes on meta: insanity plays very infrequently, but what little stale meta I checked supports the townread. CoA, from meta I doubt the replacement is particularly AI. I can expound, but basically she got replaced out of another game near simultaneously in a game that has since ended where she was town. Hopkirk's play is not outside of his scum capabilities, but tonally I still feel an overall town lean on the slot.

That's all for tonight. I should probably do something productive today, and I'm running out of time in which to do that.

Hey Key. Diving other players. I have done so on most of the playerlist at this point, but didn't run into much worth sharing.

[Jingle]

Playing around a bit with coloured spreadsheets, and I could (physically) see Korts/Void/Key.

Elaboration?

@Everyone: Both end of day votecounts are wrong. It was brought up earlier that Jingle was one of the people voting Ari (and ray/TGP wasn’t), but the VCs were not fixed. The order is slightly wrong for the second one. Don’t try and do VCA from the current VCs

There's an accurate end of Day 1 VC in my ISO. I'll do a page by page Votecount-in-a-Spoiler for people what wants that sorta thing when I wake up, but I've had 2 hours of sleep in 48 hours, so...

@Mod: really need you to fix those VCs please.

Eh. I don't think he does. If you can wait less than 24 hours I'll give you a better list of VC's to work from than we have.

Here and catching up now.

@Jingle, the main reason I didn't want a hammer was that I wanted to read up on TGP so I could decide whether to go along with it or argue for an alternative. Wanting to get my thoughts in in case he was scum and I was vengekilled was secondary. But now that you brought it up, why did you think that I was an unlikely kill? Killing a player who hasn't posted anything is actually a good strategy for scum because the player might present a new, unbiased perspective of the game. I once replaced into a newbie game the night before lylo and got nightkilled before I could post because the last mafia member didn't want me to shake up the gamestate. Even if you did think that, I still feel that from your perspective, waiting for me to take a stance on TGP before he was flipped would help you get a better read on me after seeing the flip.

1. There were 6/8 people who had already weighed in and said they wanted the lynch. Our biggest problem has been a consistent town apathy preventing us from organizing. I frankly don't think there was a sequence of words you could have said other than "I am scum, please lynch me" that would have derailed that lynch, and there was a definite drawback to waiting.

2. There are universal (or near enough so as not matter) townreads. You have been 'in the game' for weeks. Killing a no content slot is literally only optimal if there is absolutely no one working to solve the game, or if the slot has never had suspicion. Scum only gets to kill if someone pushes through a lynch on them. I could keep going, but scum TGP taking a potshot at you there would have been the equivalent of gamethrowing, and I'd like to point out that I'm never really worried about scum gamethrowing.

3. What stance could you have possibly taken that would have given me any information about you at all, when literally every other player was already approving of the lynch? Catchup posts are incredibly easy to fake, and any argument you used would have been a ball of WIFOM that boiled down to "The associatives here matter way more anyway."

[Jingle]

Spoiler: Day 1 VCs per page

P1

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

Jingle

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

Aristophanes

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts,

insanity018

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

Luca Blight, xRECKONERx, Korts

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

P2

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

Aristophanes

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts,

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

Luca Blight

, xRECKONERx,

Korts

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost, insanity018, Keychain

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

P3

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

Aristophanes

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena, Jingle

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts

,

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

Luca Blight

, xRECKONERx,

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost, insanity018, Keychain

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

P4

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

Aristophanes

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena, Jingle

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

, xRECKONERx,

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost, insanity018, Keychain

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

Bonus points: Page 4 is where my Ari push started.

P5

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

Hopkirk

, Jingle

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost, Hopkirk

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

, xRECKONERx,

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost,

insanity018, Keychain

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

P6

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost, Hopkirk, insanity018

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

, xRECKONERx,

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

insanity018

, Keychain

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

P7

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost, Hopkirk, insanity018, Korts

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

, xRECKONERx,

CultOfAthena

[10 Posts] (0) -

insanity018

, Keychain

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Korts

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

P8

Day One begins.

Vote Count

Korts

[10 Posts] (0) -

, Luca Blight

xRECKONERx

[10 Posts] (0) -

RayFrost

[10 Posts] (0) -

Jingle

Aristophanes

[10 Posts] (0) -

TGP

, Hopkirk, insanity018, Korts, Jingle

Jingle

[10 Posts] (0) -

, xRECKONERx,

Hopkirk

[10 Posts] (0) -

Keychain, TGP

Luca Blight

[10 Posts] (0) -

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

CultOfAthena

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(9) -

Korts, xRECKONERx, RayFrost, Aristophanes, Jingle, CultOfAthena, Luca Blight, Keychain, insanity018

Current Deadline:

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2017-12-26 00:00:01).

Day One continues. Five to lynch.

Vote Count

Aristophanes

[5 Posts] (5) -

TGP

, Hopkirk, insanity018, Korts, Jingle, xRECKONERx

Hopkirk

[9 Posts] (1) -

Keychain

Korts

[10 Posts] (1) -

BlackVoid

TGP

[10 Posts] (1) -

Jingle

Jingle

[5 Posts] (0) -

None

BlackVoid

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

xRECKONERx

[9 Posts] (0) -

None

Keychain

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

insanity018

[10 Posts] (0) -

None

None

(1) -

Aristophanes

Current Deadline:

None.

Impending Prods

None.

Post Count Refresh:

(expired on 2018-01-21 00:00:01)

Aristophanes is dead. He was a Vanilla Townie.

Fixed, for ya'lls convenience. I have more reads than confidence in reads at this point, which means I need to step back and reevaluate. I'm also heading to an RPG group that frowns on spending the entire night on ms, so this is probably my last post till tomorrow.

The Reck and insanity reads are pretty much universally town, AFAICT. Or at least they were coming into today.

I'll try to get around to something actually useful tomorrow, but I'm not really all the way here at the moment.

[Jingle]

Okay, so obvious things first. We're in a perpetual MYLO from now on. From the individual perspective of each individual player there are 3 scum in 6 people, which leads to a simple math outcome of 50/50 if the lynch is not on you as town of hitting scum. Which is alright, but honestly not great given the lack of real information we have. On the other hand, we have a fairly manageable number of scumteams.

Living Players:

Korts
xRECKONERx
Jingle
Hopkirk
BlackVoid
Keychain
insanity018

Spoiler: Possible Scumteams (20)

Korts Reck Hop
Korts Reck BV
Korts Reck Key
Korts Reck Ins
Korts Hop BV

Korts Hop Key

Korts Hop Ins

Korts BV Key
Korts BV Ins
Korts Ins Key
Reck Hop BV

Reck Hop Key

Reck Hop Ins

Reck BV Key
Reck BV Ins

Reck Key Ins

Hop BV Key

Hop BV Ins

Hop Key Ins
BV Key Ins

FMPOV, that's the teams that are mechanically possible. I do not see any world in which any combination of Korts/Luca, Korts/Reck, Ins/Key or Ins/Hop is scum. Those are the strikes in the previous spoiler, which leaves me with the incredibly manageable number of 5 scumteams to consider.

From this, in order for KortsScum to be a plausible choice, Hopkirk has to be scum. Thus, Korts is strictly off of my lynch choices list for today. In order for Ins to be scum, Reck has to be scum, which precludes her being a lynch today as well.

Of course, this presumes both that I am town and that I am correct in my deductions, something none of you can take for granted, thus I would appreciate if everyone would do this little thought experiment themselves (who cannot be scum together to narrow down lynch choices) and weigh in on my four proposed impossible scumpairs. I had reasoning for each earlier in my ISO, although I suppose I can rehash it if someone is confused.

Further analysis on my part will come, but it is a departure from pure math to subjective values, and I'm not getting into that this late at night.

[Jingle]

Why is Luca(BV)/Korts not likely?
Why is Key/Hop likely?

To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).

To the second, I didn't say it is likely, just that I don't think it's unlikely enough to completely discount. If you think I should reevaluate there, please tell me why.

[Jingle]

Why is Luca(BV)/Korts not likely?
Why is Key/Hop likely?

To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).

To the second, I didn't say it is likely, just that I don't think it's unlikely enough to completely discount. If you think I should reevaluate there, please tell me why.

Key/Hopkirk is in 3 of your 5 possible scumteams which makes it sound like you think it's likely.
I don't see how my trajectory today makes sense for Key/Hop/Korts given they're my two top scumreads.

Specifically on Key's, she's also been light on my slot all game. She was on me at the end of D1 while avoiding the Ari wagon after being on me earlier. She comes back and makes weird attacks on me in 243/274 that make it look like he's planning to vote me, then she settles for TGP instead with weak justification. She then came into today and it looks like she's intenting to continue her attack on my slot. She's been after my slot all game, except when going for the easy lynch. Her read on me doesn't progress naturally, it's been a consistent scumread without real basis. I don't see her voting that way on a partner.

First, you seem to be completely misunderstanding the point of this. This tool isn't to decide who is the best lynch, but to narrow down the number of people I have to weigh against each other. Note that I do not have a townread on Korts. I have a PoE read that says he cannot be scum unless you are also scum. Note also, that the strategy is NOT to lynch the person with the most possible scumteams. In fact, I would wager that for all of you that person is me, considering the two people who I am clearly not scum with have flipped town. It is a strategy that helps me to prioritize people to read AND a method by which I can examine thought processes that would not come up normally in a mafia game, giving a deeper insight into what you're actually thinking than I believe I could get otherwise.

As far as your paragraph about Key, that is pretty much exactly why I don't discount you as a scumteam. I can expound on this if necessary, but that is pretty much exactly the description of what distancing looks like.

Why is Luca(BV)/Korts not likely?
Why is Key/Hop likely?

To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).

The fact that it only lasted 3 pages is a major reason why I don't want to rule out Korts and Luca/BV as possible scumbuddies. It only lasted a short time and then Luca went V/LA. I think it's plausible that they could be early-game distancing. The actual substance of their fight seems really surface level. For Luca it's 'Korts has superficial questioning.' For Korts it's 'Luca is undermining my questions'. And then, for Luca, 'I'm undermining them because they are superficial.' They also don't seem to try to create traction for wagons on each other. The only 'case' made is Korts in 59. But the post seems to just describe things that Luca has done/said without really arguing why they make Luca scum.

I'll pull the posts that make it unlikely to my mind and put them in a spoiler.

Spoiler:

Man, this is the first time in a long while that I'm not actually dreading a reread.

Here are my notes as I go through:

Page 1

Jingle, post 5, sets the chainsaw defense bait and jokes about getting a Vanilla Town role PM. Simultaneously claims scum and town, which is a game relevant joke - this is a good catalyst, and a proactive move.

People who do not respond to the bait:

• insanity - makes a default opening post.
  
• RayFrost - jokingly OMGUSes CoA, who had jokingly voted him. Also an opening post.
  
• Aristophanes - makes a default opening post.
  
• Luca Blight - Also opening post. Puts a seasonal vote on Jingle, but not in response to Jingle's post.
  
• xRECKONERx - opening post, just banter.

I am the first to bite in post 11. Jingle immediately responds, confirming the scum claim, while separately pointing to Reck's banter as a scum tell. Reck immediately votes Jingle, and spells out the exact logic of the scum claim, somewhat excessively. (I now find this kind of overzealous and a bit scummy from Reck.)

In the post immediately after Reck's, I jump on the wagon too, and Jingle immediately serious votes me in 15. I'm not addressing the points against me at this point, but interestingly, he calls Reck probably town just three posts after calling him probably scum, even though Reck's overzealous wagon starter is more problematic to me. He does mention the lack of an RVS vote as a negative, even though RVS voting is just a custom and not generally accepted as an alignment indicative issue. (Though I suspect we can disagree endlessly about the importance of RVS.)

In the subsequent chatter, I note the following things:

• Keychain's opening post (16) is kind of playing both sides of the argument. Could be a deliberate bid to stay out of it, but also, again, an opening post.
  
• Aristo's 19 somehow takes issue with Jingle's VT claim instead of reflecting on the scum claim conversation, and then praises all three main proponents of that conversation - followed by an immediate denial of the "forward movement?" This is all kinds of tonally wrong to me.
  
• Reck's 20 and 21 make good points, but it also makes me uneasy, because while his analysis of both Keychain and CoA is sound, it seems to be concerned mostly with finding fault rather than listening and responding. Of course, this is still all page 1, so some game starting hyperbole is warranted.
  
• I like insanity's 22-24.

Luca's post 25

And then, ah yes - Luca chimes in, right on top of page 2.

I'm not gonna do direct quotes, because this will be a long post as it is. Let's just break it down into sections based on what he quotes and responds to. You can follow along in a second browser window if you like.

In the first section, he is responding to my original questions regarding Jingle's scum claim. He furthers the "superficial" narrative, which feels much less genuine from him than it did from Jingle, and then goes ahead and answers the questions themselves, even though they have already been addressed by Jingle (who was the one I asked). This seems like it's just meant to undermine me.

In the second section, he analyses my vote. The narrative is serious questions vs. joke vote, and that is either tone-deaf or a dishonest conclusion.

In the third section, he expresses his support of Jingle's analysis, but wants to cast a Reck-Korts scum pair as well. In the fourth section, he concedes a strategic point to me, but reiterates the superficial narrative and undermines another question of mine that is not directed at him. In the fifth, he provides a fair response to Aristo. He ends the post by voting me.

Rest of page 2

Luca's 26 again reiterates the superficial narrative and the serious question vs. joke vote argument, this time in response to insanity (and immediately after his original post). Then asks for more information regarding insanity's Aristo townlean.

Luca in 33 responds to my prompt to answer the question that he undermined before Jingle could answer (What does Reck's lack of RVS vote indicate). Luca's answer sidesteps the actual meat of the question (RVS vote) to say that Jingle can express negative opinions about Reck's behavior while still townreading him. Then, Luca 34 pushes back against suspicion of him, asking Jingle to make a case, and dismissing me as sheeping and questioning my timing.

I don't really get insanity's CoA case. I relate to CoA's 37 response more, and insanity calling it defensive is unfair considering she just made a case to be defended against. Then again, Ray's support of the case in 41 indicates either that there's something to it, or a potential Ray-insanity connection.

I'm starting to zone out, so page 3 is yet to come.

For now, I'm more than comfortable voting Luca.

VOTE: Luca

I don't really understand your Luca Blight case. Your 59 summarises all of his posts. But, what exactly are you finding scummy about them?

Undermining my questions to Jingle, co-opting the "superficial" narrative, and dishonest tonal analysis. The case he made was designed not to scumhunt, but discredit my position. I do not see how that is town behavior.

I could accuse you right now of discrediting my position and not scumhunting. What you're saying is completely baseless - you have shown nothing that suggests my post was purely set out to discredit you instead of to scumhunt.

I agreed that your questions were superficial. Why is it scummy to reiterate what someone else has said that you agree with? If I tried to claim the opinion for my own perhaps, but to openly agree with something?

It feels like you're reaching for something to scumread me for.

Basically, the push from Korts doesn't look like it's designed to go no where. He brings up legitimate points, unprompted, and follows up on them when he could easily maintain his pressure on me (if you'll recall, I wasn't doing much at that stage of the game.) He's not tunneled, but he does follow up, unprompted for the most part. It also has a lot less dramaticism than is usually the case. Equally, Luca's response (which boiled down to "No, you're scummy.") was not the response I would expect from a scumbuddy. Discrediting the partner's push as dumb and calling their reasoning into question isn't how you want to respond to a distancing push, because it just makes the push look like distancing.

Also, note that Kort's jump to Ari took days and came with reasoning independent from my case, implying either significant thought on the matter or him waiting to see if the push had legs. Neither of which would be necessary if he was just looking for a wagon to jump from a distancing push with.

[Jingle]

From this, in order for KortsScum to be a plausible choice, Hopkirk has to be scum. Thus, Korts is strictly off of my lynch choices list for today. In order for Ins to be scum, Reck has to be scum, which precludes her being a lynch today as well.

I don't understand this point, sorry. Is this you removing your townreads from consideration?

Nope. Pretty close to the opposite in fact. This is me saying that even if I find myself 80% sure that Korts is scum I shouldn't lynch him today because him being scum is predicated on someone else being scum. FMPOV, he pretty much can't be scum without HK also being scum, thus if I find myself sure on Korts scum I should look at Hopkirk.

Could you explain why you think the other scumteams can't be ruled out? Or ask questions about why I think they can be?

Also, glad to see the return of the fairy avvy, Key.

Of potential note: Luca replaced out saying he intended to take a hiatus. He didn't sub out of all games and is in the queue.
Though I townlean on him after skimming some of his other games.

This is dangerously close to ongoing games talk. You're still fine, but don't follow up on this.

More to the point, I take all replacement requests at face value, because to me replacing out disingenuously is an act of cheating and I refuse to believe that people are cheating without proof.

Key/Korts is still scum. Really need to look at Jingle interactions sometime.

Please do. I like it when people talk about me, it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Also, could you link a Key or Korts case? Or make one if one isn't already in thread? I'm aware of reasons to be suspicious of both, but can't remember you talking about it very much and would like to compare your reasons to mine.

[Jingle]

For clarity, are you saying that you disagree with my stance or that you think my stance is unreasonable to take?

Similarly, to Key why is Insanity/CoA a reasonable team?

[Jingle]

Tempted to just vote BlackVoid here. There's fuckin' nothing there. If scum take the win over someone being a lurksack, so be it.

Please don't. There's enough to read around him and this is white flag. You don't HAVE to sort everyone. I'd love to hear more about the scumread on me though.

@Hopkirk- Talk to me about the change in your read on Korts and how you've arrived at Reck/BV/Key.

@BlackVoid- Seriously?

@Keychain- Please answer my questions in 384/386.

@insanity018- Talk to me about me. I'd like to resolve this read if possible, so that we can move on.

[Jingle]

@Reck: please withhold your vote until Keychain gets back to me, thanks.

[Jingle]

I don't like that you jump through hoops in post 40 to call Korts scum, and I don't really believe that you did the mental calculus necessary to arrive at an organic conclusion. To me, it felt like you going into things looking to end up at a Korts-scum result to fit your narrative.
I don't like that you tried to explain away my reservations about post 40 with self-meta.

Alright. I'm satisfied with my reads.

I find it 99% likely that lynching Keychain and Hopkirk in either order will lead to a town win. I'd prefer to lynch Key first, based entirely on the strength of my insanity townread. I don't really have time to elaborate today, but I can if you would all like to wait.

Wrt 40, why would the amount of pregame meta I did have anything to do with my alignment? Do you have a reason to believe that Jingle-scum would be more likely to have read up on all the players than Jingle-town? Does anything about my play (specifically my push on Ari) suggest I wouldn't be prone to elaborate reads? Does anything about my personality suggest that? Do you have any basis other than not liking it to think it means I'm scum?

Further, the handwaving your meta read with self meta point doesn't make any sense. First, what I did wasn't handwave your read, but rather provide an alternative reason and admit that yes, I am a very dramatic player. I'm fairly certain no one will attempt to contend that point. At the point you expressed your gut read, it made sense to me. I had done a lot of talking without really saying much. I had done a lot of empty grand gestures. I've since explained why.

With that in mind:

VOTE: Keychain

Hopefully I didn't just lose us the game.

[Jingle]

Okay Jingle, why are you voting Keychain over Hopkirk? You say you are 99% sure that Hopkirk and Keychain are scum. You're also 80% sure that Korts is scum, but think Korts is only scum with Hopkirk. From what you've been saying, I would have thought that Hopkirk makes more sense to vote.

I've decided the chance you are scum is remote enough to not need consideration. The only way Key is town is if you are scum or my pairing reads are flawed. None of the arguments for my pairing reads being flawed have been in any way substantial or convincing. Hence, Key is scum.

UNVOTE:

For Reck's sake. I don't foresee anything changing for me readswise.

[Jingle]

@Jingles: Why do you have Reckoner as town?

Gut, mostly.

There's a bit more than that, but it's all more subjective than anything, and the core of the matter is that I don't need to reevaluate my read on him today, given the strength of my read on Key. It literally doesn't matter fmpov if I'm wrong and he is scum, assuming I can convince him to bus.

For shits and giggles, though:

His trajectory on me made sense from a town perspective, his feelings wrt to the game have largely mirrored mine, and meta that I either won't or can't talk about for reasons that I either won't or can't talk about.

Which all adds up to a light townread. Now normally, I'd be open to reevaluating that, but I kind of don't have to, because Key is obvscum FMPOV. Not because she hasn't played well, but because of interactions outside of her control. I expect I won't have much trouble arguing through that lynch when I get around to it.

[Jingle]

I'm fine with a key lynch.
The problem is that you aren't happy to follow with a BV lynch.
Despite having Luca/BV as scum all game :~

'Hopkirk- Probably not scum with Ray, Key, Insanity.' what changed this btw in regards to Hopkirk/Key?

I've had one of Luca/Korts as scum all game. Because I think their D1 interaction was SvT. I'm not gonna throw the game by lynching someone I'm not sure on when I could instead lynch someone I AM sure on.

The Hopkirk Key bit was mostly based on the Key sheep onto the CoA wagon, which in hindsight made much more sense from a scumpartner than I had remembered. Particularly, Key sheeping onto a scumpartner while also subtly disagreeing with the case would have been a great way to throw doubt on the partnership while demotivating the wagon. And Key is definitely smart enough/good enough as scum to have done that.

I'm around and reading, but I don't have a lot of time for this today. Presumably, I'm going to finish all of the work I've been putting off today. If I do, expect me to spend a bit more time here and available for discussion tomorrow afternoon local time (PST).

[Jingle]

I am also finding strange Hopkirk's reaction to being voted strange. As town who thought I was town, he should have been more worried about me voting him. He should have been trying to convince me that I was wrong and that I should unvote him. As even if he wanted to vote BV scum, he should have been more worried since my vote would have still meant town lost if scum quickhammers.

For the record, all of his reactions today have been strange. Particularly of note to my scumread on him is his buddying of me and his panic when I listed the scumteams I thought were possible. The panic seemed both unreasonable and self centered (he was one of three people who appeared 3 times, and Keychain appeared 4, so the level of worry was disproportionately large if he's scumreading two people out of the four that suggests as scum. Which, funnily enough, is exactly the list of people he's been pushing since I posted that.) Mostly though, 366 really makes me think the two of them are scum together. (456 also, btw.)

VOTE: Hopkirk

Let's see if this gets any more complaints than leaving a vote on Key overnight did.

[Jingle]

I'm not really sure what kind of discussion you want to have, insanity. Theorywise, it's all pretty unimportant to me at the moment. I don't really have to worry about which of Korts/Reck/BV was the partner if I'm right on HopKey, so I can wait til tomorrow to figure out who I need to discuss Keyscum with. If you have specific questions, I can take a look, but FMPOV the game is pretty much solved.

Hi Titus! If you're scum, help me lynch your scumbuddy and I promise not to vote you tomorrow. If you're town help me lynch him anyway and then coast to an easy victory. (Also, thanks for replacing in )

[Jingle]

Unless the scumteam is me/insanity/Keychain then Hopkirk is confscum, mechanically speaking.

I endorse any and all hammers, and I'll see you all in second LYLO.

[Jingle]

Someone who isn’t mobile should pm him. We’ve been pretty glacial so he might not see the hammer for a while.

[Jingle]

No way town can ever win in a geriatric game

lol

Please keep comments like this out of geriatric games. Seriously, it's not helpful to try to throw gasoline on the fire that is the divide, and this is neither the time nor the place to insult the people who want to play in this style. I get that it is anathema to your posting style, but that's literally the point of seperating out people who want to play this way. Following them around to insult them does not help you or them in any way.

Yes, this game was largely a loss due to town apathy, but town apathy is not held solely by geriatric games.

Also, my reads were garbage. I pushed every mislynch in this game.

[Jingle]

Request acknowledged. I will probably meta you naturally at some point during the game, given the lack of nightkills, but if nothing else and assuming you mean this remind me in the postgame and I'll do a thorough analysis for you.

I'd be interested in your thoughts if this offer is still open (though I know you're busy).

Sure. It might be a few weeks, but I'll do a more in depth meta dive and give you my thoughts.

Oh, and reck, I most certainly did do all of the 'mental calculus' to get my early day one reads. My only lies this game afaicr were exaggerating the strength of reads, which is actually fairly atypical of both scum and town me. I lie constantly as both alignments normally.