and hi Ari! 
) - with the first one it looked like Jingle was baiting someone into asking about it but she didn't seem to show interest in that, and I haven't seen her form any reads off the information she's gotten. She picks at theory points that aren't really alignment indicative considering that she says she looking for genuineness but someone can genuinely believe their theory as town or scumIn post 29, CultOfAthena wrote:Why do you think Aristo is town?In post 24, insanity018 wrote:I am liking Reck for town at the moment. Townlean on Aristophanes as well.
, and she doesn't follow through on things that she says are of interest to her such as "liking" Jingle for getting the game moving but then not really looking into the motivations behind why RayFrost might have been waiting - instead she focused on the fact that he stated it. She's also been very cagey with her own reads while insisting others explain theirs.In post 37, CultOfAthena wrote: It does contribute something towards solving the game – I think that anyone going off of what Jingle said would be lead to false conclusions, so I pointed that out. What I was saying wasn't even mainly about Korts and Reck, it was about Jingle. I'm mainly looking to see how Jingle responds. If, for example, he continues to push his point and his reasoning doesn't feel genuine, that begs further questions about his motivations and why he might be pushing that narrative. If he responds and his thought process feels genuine, that indicates to me that he's probably town, even if I disagree with what he's saying – that kind of examinating of the game seems more likely to come from town than to be fabricated by scum, to me.
in 41 made me laugh, I forgot to say. That was my first scumgame, yes. Also my first win!Keychain was in a game where she was my scumbuddy and watched me dance around the gallows convincingly for pretty much the entire time as one of if not her first scumgames before winning LYLO. It was, if it is not too arrogant of me to say so, one of the examples of my better scumgames. Thus, I assume she vastly overestimates my skill level and will be extremely wary of me regardless of her alignment, meaning she was unlikely to be ringleader to such a plan in this case, regardless of capability or inclination.
The answers to each player were made complete in themselves, so yeah there was repetition. Just because there was something regarding you in every answer doesn't mean it was "all about you", it's because the answers required some mention of you. And that early in the game I'm never that keen on L-1, regardless of my read on the player, because reads need time to develop.There's the repetition, with everything else snipped. Granted, I was most of the content in the thread at the time in one way or another, but it rubs me the wrong way. Having everything be about me and still not being on my wagon is pretty.
not sure what the entire point of this paragraph is. So easy to retcon as scum, while being no use to town.As of this point in the game, I have two fairly strong town reads, 3 fairly strong scumreads, and 2 leans scum reads. I am relatively certain that the 3 strong scum reads are not scum together (though I could easily see being right about 2/3). The last player sits just on the town side of the null town border, but is by no means a strong read. I believe both of my town reads are voting town, but am significantly less sure about one than the other. I am not willing to put names to any of these players at this time, but will be happy to when certain things resolve themselves.
Eh?I have not made a single townmotivated post in this entire game with the exception of my vote on Ray Frost. The rest of that post wasn't townmotivated. I've intentionally been spewing nulltells left, right and center this entire game (which you've picked up on to at least some extent), and yet, for some reason I'm your third strongest townread because I read as genuine? When literally the rest of your reasoning regarding me is things that should be considered suspicious? I'm calling bullshit. The only reasons I'm not jumping up and down screaming from the rafters after your lynch right now is that I'm barely above your null reads, Luca is doing something very similar, and I have other suspicions I want to flesh out. Consider this a challenge to find where I come across as genuine.
If this is what you consider dancing, I'm saddened! I... did not know you like to be voted early, considering you replaced into the only game we've played together N1. Tbh I'm hard hearted and didn't really care. I don't like L-1 that early.Key is clearly dancing around a scumread on me, but isn't doing anything to further said read or put pressure on me. I'll go back and double check, but assuming she knows I like to be put to L-1 early and often as both alignments, the reasoning for that is spotty. Since she chose not to vote me, I explained that not voting at all is antitown she has sheeped insanity's case on CoA, but at the time was voting no one. Her response to being questioned was all about the activity surrounding me (not actually me specifically, as pointed out by CoA) and not at all about the case she finds compelling, or her own scumreads, or anything else. A pair of mitigating factors here are that most of the activity HAS been around me to some extent so far and she has been inactive, but I don't think that explains away all of it. Regardless, bigger fish to fry (and frankly, I'd like to see her get her sea legs under her and wow me.)
Also, to follow up on this, in the game I referenced I did not discuss my personal preference for being at L-1 in the main thread. I did discuss the importance of L-1's to the efficacy of VCA, and the silliness of being unwilling to vote people to L-1 while maintaining an expectation of no quickhammers/hammers without claims in the main thread. Considering she thanked me for the advice I gave her in the scum PT and said it helped her win another game, I'm fairly certain she took the advice and theory crafting to heart.
My "issue" is that you're treating yourself like a bundle of tells rather than a player with motivation. I suppose it's untrue that it's unlikely - I know there are players with a good understanding of how they will be perceived and I have no doubt you could be one of them, but this feels disingenuous I think is the word I'm looking for. It's such a narrow focus that it seems more like scum catching a perceived misstep than town looking for scum. Town frequently have a variety of different perspectives on any one player.In post 86, Jingle wrote:Is your issue with this that I shouldn't be aware of how other people will perceive me? Cause I am, a good 70% of the time, just as a matter of the style of play I have and the sheer number of games I've read. Is your issue that you see either Kort's or Luca's townreads on me as reasonable? If so, elaborate. Is your issue that you don't think I'm right about how I'm being treated there? If so, elaborate.In post 85, Keychain wrote:Eh?Jingle wrote:I have not made a single townmotivated post in this entire game with the exception of my vote on Ray Frost. The rest of that post wasn't townmotivated. I've intentionally been spewing nulltells left, right and center this entire game (which you've picked up on to at least some extent), and yet, for some reason I'm your third strongest townread because I read as genuine? When literally the rest of your reasoning regarding me is things that should be considered suspicious? I'm calling bullshit. The only reasons I'm not jumping up and down screaming from the rafters after your lynch right now is that I'm barely above your null reads, Luca is doing something very similar, and I have other suspicions I want to flesh out. Consider this a challenge to find where I come across as genuine.
"spewing nulltells"? This paragraph puzzles me. Like having such a firm fixed idea of how other players should be perceiving you seems unlikely.
In post 86, Jingle wrote: I addressed this mostly when talking to Kam and Faraday(Not that one)about their reluctance to ever vote, but also when I replaced in and there was only really two wagons to analyze D1. And for what it's worth, I never intentionally lie about game theory in the R2R. Mislead? All the time. But anything I posted there that was game theory is either something I genuinely believe to be at least conditionally true.
at the bolded. He's going by another username now.It is!insanity018 wrote:Spoiler: Non game-related thing I just realised about Keychain
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
Is that not common knowledge in Australia? That's pretty interesting. I cannot for the life of me work out what this bolded word isIn post 93, Aristophanes wrote:Do I actually syill havs a Reck vote ? Lmfao
UNVOTE:
I like you insanity. Jingle feels like scum pushing a narratinmve tbh.
I dont lime their conclusions. They feelxoncenuevt.
For example, he talks a lot about Jingle in his summary, but his read is apparently distilled down to "overdone but genuine". He doesn't really link it to all the things he noted such as Jingle's dislike of me not voting him, and the "playing coy" and "baiting" he mentions later in the summary. Despite what he says on Athena and her actions, his read is "I don't have a reliable read. Hoping that changes." I don't see what the point in including the summary is if it's not backing up the reads.In post 136, insanity018 wrote:What from his summary section do you think is not translating into the reads section?In post 131, Keychain wrote:However at the same time there's quite a few words in his posts such as 59 and 76 which appear to just be the game summarised. Summarising as content is easy to manufacture as scum, far easier than analysis, and in particular the large amount of notes in 76 do not seem to translate to a large amount of meat in the reads section, so the entire act of including the summary feels purposeless and for show.
Can you explain this further? If someone in a certain position acts in a way you would expect from scum in that position, why is scumreading them for that circular logic?In post 141, Jingle wrote:This is circular logic.In post 139, xRECKONERx wrote:Since a couple people have mentioned this... I just think CoA did enough scummy shit that the drop out looks more in response to pressure than most replacements I've seen.In post 118, xRECKONERx wrote:I actually find that replacement pretty scummy.
Well that's no good!In post 166, Aristophanes wrote:I seem to have little motivation for this game in particular and I don't exactly know why. Every time I come here I just stop feeling like playing and check another thread instead!insanity018 wrote:Ari has been posting around the site, but still refuses to contribute anything here.
How do you feel about the votes on you and the players who placed them? For reference that's RayFrost, Hopkirk, insanity and Korts. You've only really mentioned Jingle, but he's not even on your wagon, he's just pushing it.In post 167, Aristophanes wrote:I still think the case on me is bull though.
I still find him town.In post 174, insanity018 wrote:Keychain, you have commented on Jingle's case but I can't see what your current read of Aristophanes is. What is your read of Aristophanes at the moment?
is what I see when I look through his ISO. And the quote Hopkirk pointed out:In post 170, Aristophanes wrote:On the spoilered case, I thought I was right, I gave you the set of stipulations I believed were true, I then was proven incorrect and gave in to what must be my new meta. I have said this time and time again now.
is just... why would scum ever be this honest? The action is scummy but the way he said it just sounds like town who doesn't care about how they look.In post 172, Aristophanes wrote:Hopkirk post I fluffed a response to.
" kind of argument gives me pause, but at the same time I think scum would be pretty loathe to let a partner go down on D1 so why would the game be so still if this were a scum lynch? If you could go into some kind of depth on your Ari read, I would find that really helpful. Like for/against him being scum.In post 189, Korts wrote:Oh hey, looks like I haven't posted in a few days. I didn't really have much to say that I haven't already said, but I'll figure something out tomorrow.
"despite Ari hating Jingle's meta case and calling it dumb multiple times, he still doesn't express a scumread on Jingle. What do you make of the fact that Aristophanes doesn't vote for Jingle after getting rid of his RVS vote?" - Someone pushing a bad case on you doesn't make them scum. I would actually consider the lack of retaliation to be more likely to come from town.In post 191, insanity018 wrote:I find your response interesting because I disagree with many of your points.In post 180, Keychain wrote:I still find him town.In post 174, insanity018 wrote:Keychain, you have commented on Jingle's case but I can't see what your current read of Aristophanes is. What is your read of Aristophanes at the moment?
Jingle phrases it in a very condemning way but reading through Ari's ISO, I don't really see anything wrong with how he responded to the meta case. 88 is a reasonable response. He admits he got it wrong in 90, while iirc Jingle was using the lack of such a statement as part of his case. I might be wrong on that.
I can understand the thought pattern behind 91 and 93 - and he appears to be scumreading someone for using meta conclusions, which is a really odd tack to take as scum if the meta is true.
Well, while Ari admits he is wrong in 90, straight afterwards in 91, he immediately goes back to his old position, "Like, I see where I selfmeta'd incorrectly (I guess my playstyle has evolved without me noticing) and I do believe it is dependant on the game and situation."
The thing is despite Ari hating Jingle's meta case and calling it dumb multiple times, he still doesn't express a scumread on Jingle. What do you make of the fact that Aristophanes doesn't vote for Jingle after getting rid of his RVS vote? I don't understand the thought pattern at all. Ari describes Jingle as 'scum pushing a narrative' and 'convenient' (93). But ultimately, Ari tries to placate(?) Jingle "I think you have a chance of actually scumhunting but my gut says yoy may be faking it" (95), before saying that Jingle feels off but not strong enough to warrant a vote (114). This doesn't feel like the thought pattern of town thinks scum is pushing a narrative on him at all.
I'm not too worried about the timing. I think this wagon has formed quite slowly and there has been a fair amount of resistance, particularly at the start. (If Jingle is town and Ari town), I would have thought scum would have been more likely to jump onto a 'scumslip case'. There's also quite a few inactive slots, which is contributing to the game being still.Keychain wrote:
The whole "oh no you're going to mislynch me
Also, what is your current read of Jingle?
It looks like insanity pointed out some issues with this post but my immediate one was that you ended with "That leaves Keychain" as if you'd listed all the players, but you skipped her.In post 194, TheGoldenParadox wrote:I don't believe this hammer should happen yet. From my understanding of the game Ari looks too much like town for this nonsense, which looks slightly like a scum-piled wagon. I'm pretty sure we'll find scum currently on this wagon, because I'm not sure of Ari's guilt.
UNVOTE: Aristophanes
I'm ok with Korts, pretty townie posting from what I can see. Reck looks fine too.
Hopkirk is slightly leaning scum to me.
ASP is null: not enough posts to determine yet.
Jingle looks townie. I like their game progression.
That leaves Keychain.
I'm almost 100% sure scum is within Ari, Key, Hop.
Right now I prefer lynching hopkirk simply because they look more scummy. key+Hop is a viable scumteam.
VOTE: Hopkirk
While in 90 he gives way, in 91 he actually still acknowledges that to some extent he may have been wrong but says that he believes his story was consistent. If he was scum being inconsistent I think he would have tried to draw attention away from the inconsistency.insanity018 wrote: Why do you see Aristophanes' thought process as coming from town?
I'm not anymore since the lynch, but the question is worth answering regardless.In post 213, insanity018 wrote: @Keychain, thanks for your response. I still disagree with you that those things make Ari more likely to be town. I notice that you're still voting CultofAthena/Hopkirk. Do you have any thoughts on Hopkirk's play since replacing into the slot?
feels too complex to be real, if that makes sense. Like reading through it I have difficulty seeing how all these little threads add up to a coherent read.In post 156, Hopkirk wrote:I didn’t get the townread on insanity. I didn’t like her by this time due to the unjustified looking push on CoA. If Insanity was his top townread here then I don’t follow why he’s going after Jingle instead of joining her on CoA. Overall, I got the impression here he was trying to buddy a bit with insanity who had Reckless as town and Jingle as suspicious. Also, this would make Insanity more likely town if Reckless flipped scum since it seems less likely to occur between partners.
Backing off when confronted seems like he's avoiding conflict with you, and the later picking over whether you'd noticed his formatting was broken feels like kind of a weak attempt to find something to poke at which was easily resolved.In post 181, Hopkirk wrote:@Insanity: I don’t ‘scumread’ you. That’s too hard a term. I’m suspicious and working on sorting you. I’m most suspicious of Ari/Reckless right now. You seem like a less likely partner for either.
This point you've said here isn't complex, no, but it is still flawed. You can easily townread someone for a read without strictly agreeing with it and voting with them, since it's generally more about whether you believe that read is likely to come from town or scum than whether it's the same as yours.In post 246, Hopkirk wrote:@Keychain: The first point there isn’t complex. I’m saying Reck looks fake since he says he has a strong townread on Insanity but doesn’t act like he does. If he hard townreads her for her stuff on CoA he should be voting CoA with her at that point.
Also, I townread Insanity based on those interactions. It sounds like you’re trying to paint it like I’m nitpicking her then scumreading her for it.
... Is taking the piss scum indicative? If so, I'd be interested in hearing what you think suggests Paradox is deliberately making such bizarre arguments and isn't just a bit clueless.In post 268, Korts wrote:Soooo just random noise then, not actually relevant analysis.In post 267, Hopkirk wrote:The games he mentioned were actually groupscum, town, and (third party that changes alignment) in a upick that I broke.
I don't read this as incompetence. It looks much more like taking the piss.
VOTE: TheGoldenParadoxIn post 278, TheGoldenParadox wrote:In post 276, Hopkirk wrote:First off, there's no incentive for me to actually lie about that since (one would assume) TGP would correct me in his next post. I simply mistook the games for more recent ones with similar names.
Oh, I think he was referencing my last three completed games: Dragon Hunters, Beyonddeathandgrandidea. The names are very similar, and it didn't make sense for him to be referencing the ones he actually did.
Greatest idea was an ongoing game when he said he'd metad me (though finished when he said the name), so I assumed he wasn't referncing that one.
I wasn't referencing it; however I was waiting for it to be over to add it to the list because you were very obvtown there.
Marked for death I assumed he wasn't mentioning because I had two other town games since then that he hadn't mentioned (one shorter, one longer). I don't see why he'd scroll that far down instead of picking recent ones.
I wanted to scroll back a little further to get the idea of a larger timeframe.
In which case I'd like to know why TGP picked MfD, and why he didn't notice I was confused about which ones they were. Also- since he didn't look at a scumgame- why he didn't look at my scumgame.
I'm sorry, I must have missed the post where you were confused. Can you please link me to that?
Plus all the other questions he'd been asked.
It didn't really look like an attack to me, it was there and gone too quick if you're talking about 275.In post 281, xRECKONERx wrote:VOTE: Korts
Been feelin' like I'm being blinded by how much I love Korts and I think his recent attack on Hopkirk was weak. And he knew it was weak. It was for show, not for real.
Reck your new username colour is very pretty but did you ignore this deliberately or accidentally?In post 293, Keychain wrote:It didn't really look like an attack to me, it was there and gone too quick if you're talking about 275.In post 281, xRECKONERx wrote:VOTE: Korts
Been feelin' like I'm being blinded by how much I love Korts and I think his recent attack on Hopkirk was weak. And he knew it was weak. It was for show, not for real.
But it does sound like similar reasoning to what I was thinking regarding Hopkirk engaging insanity over her ignoring the formatting issue with his post. Do you have an opinion on that?
Daystart made me unvote. My next vote was on TGP in 293. I was conflicted over whether my Hopkirk read was on the wrong track so I was looking into other options - one of those options was TGP, who became a stronger scumread after his actions as his wagon grew.In post 369, insanity018 wrote:I am wondering though - why didn't you vote Hopkirk in Day 2?
I don't understand this point, sorry. Is this you removing your townreads from consideration?In post 361, Jingle wrote: From this, in order for KortsScum to be a plausible choice, Hopkirk has to be scum. Thus, Korts is strictly off of my lynch choices list for today. In order for Ins to be scum, Reck has to be scum, which precludes her being a lynch today as well.
It's a different fairy avvy this timeIn post 384, Jingle wrote:Could you explain why you think the other scumteams can't be ruled out? Or ask questions about why I think they can be?
Also, glad to see the return of the fairy avvy, Key.
Sorry for the delay. So Korts is off the table for today in particular because Hopkirk would have to flip scum first? Okay, I see.In post 384, Jingle wrote:Nope. Pretty close to the opposite in fact. This is me saying that even if I find myself 80% sure that Korts is scum I shouldn't lynch him today because him being scum is predicated on someone else being scum. FMPOV, he pretty much can't be scum without HK also being scum, thus if I find myself sure on Korts scum I should look at Hopkirk.
How does your insanity townread change who you want to lynch first? I don't know why you as town would be jumping to vote before Reck can put a vote on someone you're 99% sure is scum.Jingle wrote: I find it 99% likely that lynching Keychain and Hopkirk in either order will lead to a town win. I'd prefer to lynch Key first, based entirely on the strength of my insanity townread.
This is at least internally consistent, though your excluded pairings are still flawed considering I don't think insanity is scum either.In post 418, Jingle wrote:I've decided the chance you are scum is remote enough to not need consideration. The only way Key is town is if you are scum or my pairing reads are flawed. None of the arguments for my pairing reads being flawed have been in any way substantial or convincing. Hence, Key is scum.
In post 434, Hopkirk wrote:I'm disgusted that BV has been tactically lurking and abusing the lack of mod intervention. It's abusing the game rules and It's insane that he hasn't been replaced.
How can anyone even see the slightest bit of townieness in someone whose spent 3 entire weeks avoiding posting anything- then complains that he's an easy push because he hasn't posted stuff.
VOTE: Blackvoid
In post 439, Hopkirk wrote:Your posting does suggest you aren't town. I don't see why town would ever consider staying in the game in your position. Not having posted 11 days into lylo is akin to gamethrowing given your townread Reck put a vote down already and scum can quickhammer very easily here.
I've asked for your replacement several times.
UNVOTE: BV
In post 440, Hopkirk wrote:VOTE: Keychain
Insanity/Keychain/Reckoner (team without BV) is more likely than Korts/BV/Reckoner (team without BV) or BV/Keychain/Jingles (team without Reckoner).
You're kind of all over the place here and I'm not sure what the voting is supposed to achieve. Are you wanting to see something in particular from the slot or is this just not wanting to move on with the game until we've got a full playerlist?xRECKONERx wrote:I said I wasn't putting a vote down until the bv situation is resolved
Really disappointed in the mod here
Right?? She was amazing and a great partner as well.In post 488, xRECKONERx wrote:insanity if you were scum well fucking played
OuchIn post 401, xRECKONERx wrote:Some of her jovial interactions (like in 85 with Jingle, or randomly wishing me happy birthday) come off as really fake and insincere to me, but maybe I'm just cynical.
In post 427, Jingle wrote:[...]
Which all adds up to a light townread. Now normally, I'd be open to reevaluating that, but I kind of don't have to, because Key is obvscum FMPOV. Not because she hasn't played well, but because of interactions outside of her control. I expect I won't have much trouble arguing through that lynch when I get around to it.
Jingle you flatterer.In post 444, Jingle wrote:And Key is definitely smart enough/good enough as scum to have done that.
yeah the moment when I realised you had narrowed your teams down to make me lockscum to you I was like... oh hell. It was an interesting strategy, if I'd realised in advance you'd be doing that I would have gone out of my way to create more unusual interactions. You did rule out me/insanity though, which was nice. 
https://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/rdNu6HAWDh6LAinsanity018 wrote: I'm happy to release the scum qt if you are?