Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Klick]

There are a whole bunch of oldies in this game.

VOTE: PenguinPower

[Klick]

I had reads skimming through this, but I'm not around for very long. I'll prolly post something in the next 2ish hours?

UNVOTE:

[Klick]

I really like mozamis for town so far. He's not inserting himself largely into the initial pushes, but he seems to be giving where he's genuinely leaning. If he's scum, he's setting up very early to have this clear fake mindset on minute details unrelated to the main pushes - and I find that fairly unlikely. Essentially he's going out of his way to give these smaller reads in a way I don't think scum would bother with this early, and it just gives me genuine vibes all around. So he's in my town list for now.

I dislike Penguin's initial approach to the game but I can't say anything he's done makes me lean one way or another, so I don't feel comfortable with my vote there.

uhh real mountain out of a molehill here guys.

i just felt Athena and Penguin were a bit towny in the first couple of posts. I didn't mention names because i wanted to avoid the Q&A but it happened anyway.

I have more solid town leans on Moneybags and Mozamis by this stage.

This post throws me off. It feels as though Maxous is trying to shrug everything off and dissuade the line of discussion as much as he can, posting everything necessary to get the heat off of him, as though checking through a list.

We are out of rvs. Please shut this argument down.

These two statements seem contradictory.

....sorry, is Thor's argument 'pp was online when the thread started = scum?'.

Tbf, pp's defense against this not being 'email alerts for pms' is also pretty weak.

I assume im being trolled with money's response to me.

This bothers me. You're throwing a generally negative view out on the whole situation you're observing and avoiding committing to a side. It feels like content for the sake of putting content out there while drawing as little attention to yourself as possible.


VOTE: Bellaphant
This is where I feel most comfortable leaving my vote, and I encourage others to join me.

[Klick]

I'm not necessarily saying it would put us back into RVS. I feel as though completely shutting down the line of discussion Thor created would do nothing but stifle our chances of getting actual leads. I do agree that Thor's activity argument for Penguin-scum is weak and probably won't be useful for much longer, but it's something. He's getting -somewhere- with his discussion, which is better than a decent portion of the player list so far.

I'm not going to claim I can read Thor right now, because I can't. I think he's still playing the way he would play either alignment and will continue to do so for some time. He's someone I'll look into later on.

[Klick]

Maxous, what's your opinion on the interactions between Flubber and Thor over the last page?

[Klick]

I was paused on a movie and just gave the thread a quick skim at the time - the reads weren't very strong, and in fact I can't actually remember what my reads were before the more detailed look. I was basically saying "There's enough detail in the last four pages for me to get reads; I'll do that soon."

[Klick]

Which way is the gut read on texcat, and what posts does it come from? Because I have the same thing.

[Klick]

Yeah, I had a weird gut townread on texcat as well reading earlier. Something about the post he made on page 3 seemed like... minimal content, but in a genuine way? idk.

[Klick]

Bella, where are your reads on the more active players atm? I understand no Thor read, but I'm wondering about how you're seeing Flub/Beef/Penguin/mozamis. Particularly Beef and Penguin, who I'm having a really hard time placing. I spent like half an hour while writing my post last night trying to place an initial read on Beefster, with no results. If you've got a lean anywhere on them I'd be really interested in hearing it.

PEdit: Could you explain the vote to me? You can probably tell I'm just wanting to see your mindset on this game right now

[Klick]

On my phone. Just posting to say I really, really like your post 150 Moneybags. Particularly the Beefster bit - that was a nice catch, and I think I'm going to townread him now as well. I agree with not quite seeing Maxous-scum at this point in time, and his wagon is very peculiar/interesting to me. Going to look into the votes on him in detail when I get back on my laptop.

PEdit: oh that's a lot of posts. Moneybags I'll give you reads with explanation when I'm home, does that work? Or if you want them now I can give them, but there won't be much support.

[Klick]

Alright, reads.
mozamis - slight Town-lean for reasons I've already discussed.
Beefster - Town-lean based on Moneybags' point; I can't discern his alignment beyond that, but the argument that he wouldn't make such a drastic change in reads just like that is one I can get behind.
Thor - Thor

Moneybags - I guess a Town lean? Essentially I'm seeing a bunch of pro-Town activity from you - what you're doing is advancing the Town agenda - but I can't say that's totally alignment-indicative just yet. But I want you to be town. Your reads make sense from a town perspective and you're a good mind to be able to rely on in this team. I think for convenience's sake I'm going to assume you're Town for a little while, and reevaluate at a later point. More than likely I'm right and we'll start getting somewhere by cooperating.

texcat - I felt good about his second post as I discussed before. It would really help if he posts more so I can further cement that read if he's town. Null-leaning-town.

Bella - I didn't like her second post, but my vote on her has been more to encourage her to get in here and get involved than anything. I was really hoping once she got active she would show me she was town really quickly (I know Bella very well personally, we joined this to play together). That didn't quite happen. I can't shake an annoying gut scum read of her, but I also can't justify it beyond that second post.

Flubbernugget - I want to say Scum, but I'm not going to, mostly because I think the things I'm seeing as scummy are probably playstyle-related. Namely, he's been primarily focused on exactly two subjects all game; the never-ending discussion of Thor's activity read on Penguin, and the whole "votes on Bella are pro-town" thing (and he keeps being baited into that discussion). Due to his reactive/responsive posting style, I don't think it's really indicative of alignment, but at the same time I really want to hear about more things than that from him. Especially since he mentioned Penguin would be scum if all he could do was argue with Thor, which is all Flubber is really doing at this point. Null for the time being, but I'd like to fix that.

@Flubber:

You gave a short list of reads back on Page 4. There's been quite a bit more content since then. Can I get an updated sense of where your thoughts and reads are? Your vote on Maxous didn't stay; I'm assuming you didn't really get what you wanted out of the vote, since Maxous hasn't quite picked things up?


I don't really have reads anywhere else at the moment.

[Klick]

Go into detail on that please? I'm very curious where you're getting a scumread on me from Bella.

[Klick]

I'm not comfortable with this Flubber wagon. This feels misguided and fishy.

Looking into this later today.

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

[Klick]

Go into detail on that please? I'm very curious where you're getting a scumread on me from Bella.

Why did you completely ignore everything I said in 186 to ask Bella about why she agreed with me? Am I a leper or something?

You gave reasons for your suspicion. Bella didn't. I also have a lot of experience with Bella as a person and didn't expect her to be scumreading me at this stage.

Mozamis, how is wagoning her going to help at all if she's just said real life went to shit and she will try to post tomorrow? If your goal is just outright lynching her now that makes sense, but if you want pressure on her I don't see how that will help.

[Klick]

I can confirm that Bella's real life is in fact rough at the moment.

Posts with more content coming tonight. Today's my first day of classes, gonna be busy until they end tonight.

[Klick]

Posts with more content coming tonight. Today's my first day of classes, gonna be busy until they end tonight.

[Klick]

Okay, finally around. Going to sit and make a big post or two.

I'm also wary of the idea that most of the more recently active players are town, and this goes along with what I said earlier about getting a bad feeling from Klick's posts. Klick seems like he's trying to pocket people, or at the very least insert himself into some kind of townblock. Look at this whole interaction:

Spoiler:

...I have the dumbest gut read on texcat.

Which way is the gut read on texcat, and what posts does it come from? Because I have the same thing.

I mean there's only two of them and one is generic af so....

and it's town.

Yeah, I had a weird gut townread on texcat as well reading earlier. Something about the post he made on page 3 seemed like... minimal content, but in a genuine way? idk.

Perhaps this is paranoia, but it seems to me like Klick is attempting to appeal to Bella by making it seem like they share a similar thought process (exactly how scum pocketed me in one of my previous games). In 136, despite not knowing what Bella's read on tex is or where it comes from, he says that he has the same thing. If he actually originally shared Bella's exact same gutread, I would have expected him to just say it and then ask if Bella shared the same thing, rather than asking what Bella's read was first before sharing his own.

I understand where your suspicion is coming from in that line of discussion. I suppose the only way to respond to this in defense is to explain my thought process at the time and why I asked this to Bella in the manner that I did.
Before making my first reads post, I had a gut townread on texcat, but I didn't really know how to justify it. Following the advice a page or two before that Thor had given to Maxous, I decided not to reveal the read at the time because I didn't feel like explaining it/didn't have very high confidence. Seeing that Bella seemed to have the same feeling and knowing that we tend to think the same way sometimes, I thought my read might be more reasonable if it was shared by Bella. When she revealed that she did in fact have a gut townread on texcat, I felt more comfortable expressing my own read, and then tried going back to the post to explain what I saw.
Basically, I'm a bit shy about expressing my opinions and have low confidence in them most of the time, so I was hesitant.
I'm not quite sure how I would have handled the situation were I scum, but I don't think it would be like that.

---

Looking into the Flubber votes now. Upon doing more than a skim, it looks like only three people actually voted Flubber ever, though Beef voted him twice. My main issue is that Flubber actually seems quite towny to me at the moment, and I think his play style is attracting votes towards him. I considered placing a pressure vote on him as one of my first votes, but decided against it as I figured he was on the track towards providing content with which I could read him. In short, Flubber's a town read and I'll explain that in my next post, but in this post I'm going to be assuming Flubber is town.

Spoiler: Beef's votes

Bella votes are pro town atm

Not sure how I feel about this post. On the one hand, I can see possible scum in Bella, but on the other hand, it looks slightly manipulative.

VOTE: Flubber

Pinging me just a bit stronger than thor.

Initially looks like an opportunistic and scummy vote. Beef seems to be trying to go for something he can actually get a lynch from, and since a Thor vote wasn't taking off, he settled on Flubber. However, if we look later on at his other vote on Flubber:

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Let's try something completely different.

But why? We have several fairly good leads right now.

The flubber wagon felt stale at the time, but it seems to be picking up momentum. She's been pinging my scumdar. She feels very methodical/mechanical in her posts.

VOTE: Flubber

I am still suspicious of COA.

This is a more obvious attempt at being on a wagon that has momentum. The reason I read the first post as scummy is because he's being opportunistic is what appears to be a sneaky way, but now it just seems like Beef wants to be somewhere that has a chance of leading to a lynch. I don't scumread Beef based on his Flubber votes.

Spoiler: texcat's vote and argument with Flubber

So make a case or something

Hmmmm...

VOTE: Flubbernugget
Telling me to make a case, when you are not. Plus telling us that voting Bella is a town thing to do, when you are not.

QFT.

Flubber, care to explain why both of these points are a thing?

Well, there's seven pages of content, and texcat didn't have much to say about it. The "make a case or something" was a reference to the fact that texcat was shading Bellaphant without pushing many reads.

Do you still think tex is town from their catch up? I don't.

VOTE: texcat

This looks like

blatant

obvious OMGUS. When you said that you didn't understand Bella and Klick's town read of me, it was OK, but when I say something about it, suddenly it's shading? And what about Klick, he echoed Bella, but you say that he's "making good observations." Seems a little off.

You weren't pushing anyone and your vote was not on anyone until I voted you. Suddenly then you produced a list of townreads and then decide to vote me. Stinks like pond scum. I think you are scum looking for an easy place to park your vote, and you found it when I voted you.

This is a bad vote. Hypocrisy isn't a scumtell. It seems like very weak reasoning for something texcat is arguing strongly for in the last post. In addition, tex seems to put Flubber in a situation where he'll be scumread no matter what he does. He votes Flubber in 174. Flubber then gives reads in the next post (he already said he was going to be giving lots of townreads earlier in response to me) but tex scumreads this, accusing his reads post of being a result of tex voting him. If Flubber hadn't given reads, he'd still be scummy for not making a case. It's a lose-lose situation, and I'm starting to think texcat was aware of that.

Soooo yeah. Really dislike the texcat vote on Flubber.

Spoiler: Thor's Flubber vote

I like the idea of a Flub v. Tex wagon adventure.
Bella is now an acceptable lynch to me also.
Beefster is wasting time.
Errant is playing right near the very edge of strategic lurking and should knock that crud off.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

Thor has several posts going back-and-forth in discussion with Flubber surrounding this vote, but he's been very vague about his actual reasons for this vote, outside of wanting competing wagons between tex and Flub. I genuinely don't understand why Thor has a scumread on Flubber. He has

implied

a scumread on Flubber through discussion of his reads in comparison with mozamis' reads in 263. But I don't get Thor's scumread on Flubber. So until I understand it, I don't have confidence in it.

@Thor:

Could you please explain why you find Flubber scummy to me? Show some of your cards; I want to see what you're seeing.

So that wraps up my analysis of the Flubber wagon. tl;dr: Beef's vote isn't scummy, texcat's is, and I don't get Thor's vote at all.
Next post is an updated reads list and probably a vote.

[Klick]

TOWN

Beefster:

This is my strongest read. I really like Beef's 115 which is where my townread of him started. There's inconsistency in his reads and odd flops of his vote, in ways that I think he'd be more careful about as scum. Most recently, I like the way he's criticizing mozamis in his last post for voting CoA, joining his own wagon, because it doesn't line up with moz's reads. He just looks really genuine to me, thus he's my strongest townread.

mozamis:

Post 95 has my main argument for moz-town, and not much has changed my view on him. I don't particularly

like

his most recent posts just repeating the same list of possible scum over and over again with slight changes, but I do think his reads are genuine and coming from town. I particularly don't think moz-scum goes from "SCUM ARE IN THESE FIVE PEOPLE" to "meh okay let's vote this townread that's actually neutral." He's not showing awareness of how his actions are making him look. Unless he's getting extremely detailed in trickery, he's town.

Moneybags:

This feels right. I'm reading through Moneybags' posts and seeing very clear town motivation in pretty much everything he says. For example:

Do you have any remarks on what I have said about Flub? It should be able to be gathered from my ISO. No one else has really had anything to say about it. I'd appreciate another opinion.

This looks like it's coming from the perspective of someone who genuinely wants people to weigh in on their thoughts. Thinking from the perspective of scum-Moneybags (Scummybags?), having just put together a wall of content, I would probably be just fine with my post being passed up and not getting much flak on Day 1 while other players took heat. Moneybags wants opinions on the thoughts he's put together. Now, if a player like Thor did this I'd consider it null; Thor obviously wants to shape the game regardless of what role he has, he does it every game. Moneybags doesn't seem like that kind of extremely dominant player, therefore I feel like this is a solid towntell for him.
I also really liked Moneybags' early read on Beef, leading to my own strong townread on Beef.

CultOfAthena:

I'm just now reading through her ISO again and coming to this conclusion. For the longest time I've had her sitting at null. But I really like the contributions she made early-game. There are subtleties to her reads that I don't think look faked.

The only person I've played with here before is mozamis, who so far seems fairly similar to our previous game.

I like how Thor focused on, or rather engaged with multiple people and dislike how PP primarily focused just on Thor.

If moneybags is scum, I doubt PP is.

I don't really see much that's scummy about Maxous. It's a weak read but from his first post I'd be inclined to say he's more likely town. It shows more concern for sorting people than for fitting in.

This post in particular has what I'm talking about. What is scum-COA trying to accomplish with these details? Getting the read of Moneybags and PP not being scum-buddies, and especially the weak Maxous town-read. It would have been fairly easy to not bother defending that sort of read, but I thinks he genuinely has this weak town feeling about Maxous and therefore said it anyway.
Her flip-flop multiple times on her mozamis meta-read also seems extremely genuine. As scum you'd have to expect her to have some sort of direction she wants to put mozamis in, but she doesn't; she keeps sorting him back and forth with this meta-read.

LEANING TOWN

Flubbernugget:

As I said in my last post, the wagon on him currently makes no sense to me. At first I was put off by his abrasive posting style, but everything game-related he's posted lines up with my own thoughts on the game really well. I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget. Call it gut, I guess, and a little bit of texcat looking super bad on his wagon.

NULL

ErrantParabola:

[Klick]

fuck I pressed submit that's a work in progress

[Klick]

TOWN

Beefster:

This is my strongest read. I really like Beef's 115 which is where my townread of him started. There's inconsistency in his reads and odd flops of his vote, in ways that I think he'd be more careful about as scum. Most recently, I like the way he's criticizing mozamis in his last post for voting CoA, joining his own wagon, because it doesn't line up with moz's reads. He just looks really genuine to me, thus he's my strongest townread.

mozamis:

Post 95 has my main argument for moz-town, and not much has changed my view on him. I don't particularly

like

his most recent posts just repeating the same list of possible scum over and over again with slight changes, but I do think his reads are genuine and coming from town. I particularly don't think moz-scum goes from "SCUM ARE IN THESE FIVE PEOPLE" to "meh okay let's vote this townread that's actually neutral." He's not showing awareness of how his actions are making him look. Unless he's getting extremely detailed in trickery, he's town.

Moneybags:

This feels right. I'm reading through Moneybags' posts and seeing very clear town motivation in pretty much everything he says. For example:

Do you have any remarks on what I have said about Flub? It should be able to be gathered from my ISO. No one else has really had anything to say about it. I'd appreciate another opinion.

This looks like it's coming from the perspective of someone who genuinely wants people to weigh in on their thoughts. Thinking from the perspective of scum-Moneybags (Scummybags?), having just put together a wall of content, I would probably be just fine with my post being passed up and not getting much flak on Day 1 while other players took heat. Moneybags wants opinions on the thoughts he's put together. Now, if a player like Thor did this I'd consider it null; Thor obviously wants to shape the game regardless of what role he has, he does it every game. Moneybags doesn't seem like that kind of extremely dominant player, therefore I feel like this is a solid towntell for him.
I also really liked Moneybags' early read on Beef, leading to my own strong townread on Beef.

CultOfAthena:

I'm just now reading through her ISO again and coming to this conclusion. For the longest time I've had her sitting at null. But I really like the contributions she made early-game. There are subtleties to her reads that I don't think look faked.

The only person I've played with here before is mozamis, who so far seems fairly similar to our previous game.

I like how Thor focused on, or rather engaged with multiple people and dislike how PP primarily focused just on Thor.

If moneybags is scum, I doubt PP is.

I don't really see much that's scummy about Maxous. It's a weak read but from his first post I'd be inclined to say he's more likely town. It shows more concern for sorting people than for fitting in.

This post in particular has what I'm talking about. What is scum-COA trying to accomplish with these details? Getting the read of Moneybags and PP not being scum-buddies, and especially the weak Maxous town-read. It would have been fairly easy to not bother defending that sort of read, but I thinks he genuinely has this weak town feeling about Maxous and therefore said it anyway.
Her flip-flop multiple times on her mozamis meta-read also seems extremely genuine. As scum you'd have to expect her to have some sort of direction she wants to put mozamis in, but she doesn't; she keeps sorting him back and forth with this meta-read.

LEANING TOWN

Flubbernugget:

As I said in my last post, the wagon on him currently makes no sense to me. At first I was put off by his abrasive posting style, but everything game-related he's posted lines up with my own thoughts on the game really well. I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget. Call it gut, I guess, and a little bit of texcat looking super bad on his wagon.

Bellaphant:

This is a very slight read. I'm wary of Bella's ability to come across as genuine and town-looking. But one thing does stand out to me a little:

I liked the vote as well: it seemed to want to move on from the thor/pp thing which people (now flubber) are stil dragging, and felt like a gut reaction to max's weird 'I have SEKRIT' townreads. tex is prolly the player i've got most experience of here as well.

Actually

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Maxous

I don't feel like scum-Bella gives the thread a second thought after her first post. I feel like scum-Bella is more calculated than that, sure of what she wants to do before she posts, while town-Bella is more impulsive like this.
It's not much, but enough to raise her from the null pile.

NULL

ErrantParabola:

Okay I reeeally want them to be town because I really like the reads they presented in 178. But ultimately most of what they've posted is just a big pile of bleh and I can't discern an actual good read yet. I definitely don't want to lynch them today, I want to see more from them, but I can't say I have a read yet.

Thor:

I'm still nowhere with him. But I feel like that has potential to change soon. Really interested in his response to me about his Flubber suspicion.

HeWhoSwims:

I really have no idea how to read him. He seems very level-headed, and a lot of what he's posting is relatively safe and could come from either alignment. I could see him as scum failing to make any false steps, or I could see him as a helpful town member. I think a game day or two will do a lot to influence this read.

LEANING SCUM

Maxous:

I had a gut town read on him at one point, but reading through again I'm missing it and really can't find anything that indicates Maxous-town. Everything he's giving feels very borderline and easily-faked. The problem with that is you never know if it's lazy town, lazy scum, or under-the-radar scum. 2/3 of those are scum, so I'm going to put Maxous in the leaning scum pile.

Transcend:

Penguin's contribution to this game was practically nothing. I didn't like his start, and he wasn't around long enough to improve. Transcend's posts so far have been regurgitated reads with no explanation. I'd be completely fine with lynching this.

texcat:

I had a weak gut townread on texcat earlier. It was based on Post 58 seeming like genuine opinions. It was small, and I now feel like it is something tex would do as either alignment based on her posting style.
But the Flubbernugget vote is really, really bad. She gave no real indication she had any sort of read on Flubbernugget before the vote. Her vote was based on hypocrisy, not really alignment-indicative in any sense. But she's gung-ho about it, and sets Flub into what seems to me like a manipulated lose-lose scenario. I don't believe texcat actually has the opinion on Flub she claims to have. It's too flashy, too overconfident.


VOTE: texcat

[Klick]

Klick, what's your opinion on 78 and 123 which seem townish to me?

I'm not really seeing anything alignment-indicative about the two posts? You're going to have to explain what you see to me.


Moneybags, I'm disappointed in your push against me.

The Bella Exchange:

Which way is the gut read on texcat, and what posts does it come from? Because I have the same thing.

Yeah, I had a weird gut townread on texcat as well reading earlier. Something about the post he made on page 3 seemed like... minimal content, but in a genuine way? idk.

I think we all can agree this is strange. I know he explained this in one of his recent posts as him being insecure. However what's strange to me is that he would ask this after voting her in 95. Keep in mind this was when PP and Max were the top wagons. Shortly after in 98 Flub made his "bella votes are town votes" remark. In retrospect, I feel like he actually might have been on to something here.

I'm not quite sure what you're getting at here. You're not particularly calling anything scummy. You find it strange that I'd ask Bella questions after voting her... My explanation for my interactions with Bella is given later in my first reads post:

Bella - I didn't like her second post, but my vote on her has been more to encourage her to get in here and get involved than anything.

I wanted her to get engaged. My vote and questions directed at her were a means to that end.

The Moneybags Exchange:

On my phone. Just posting to say I really, really like your post 150 Moneybags. Particularly the Beefster bit - that was a nice catch, and I think I'm going to townread him now as well. I agree with not quite seeing Maxous-scum at this point in time, and his wagon is very peculiar/interesting to me. Going to look into the votes on him in detail when I get back on my laptop.

In context of a Beef-scum scenario, this is

really

interesting. I also townread Klick in my post 150. This in light of the bella exchange feels like straight up buddying with me. Also it gave him a reason to say Beef is for sure town, which he seems really enthusiastic about.

So you see possible scum motivation in me liking your post 150 - you think scum-me could be buddying with you and trying to find a reason to call scumbuddy-Beef town. This is a large assumption and more speculation than scumhunting. Associative tells mean practically nothing until there's actually some sort of scum flipped, or until it's late enough in the game that there's a reasonable chance of two players being partners. With three scum in a 13-player game, you're banking on a 1/22 chance of your assumption being right that two players are scum. It's a small enough chance that without any actual info, associative tells are insignificant.
The buddying accusation based on me liking with your post 150 has some amount of merit, considering you saw the same thing in my interactions with Bella. My counter to that is that my reads in regards to liking your post have been consistent since then. I've maintained a strong Beef townread - he's my strongest townread at the moment - and it's primarily as a result of the reasoning you posted, despite the fact that you don't have much confidence in the argument anymore yourself. The read has become mine and has nothing to do with you anymore.
I think you are picking up on a playstyle quirk of mine, telling someone I like what they've posted when I notice something that influences my reads, and interpreting it as a scumtell. It's a personality trait, not alignment-indicative.

Official Reads (Finally, on page 15):

-snip-

Town Reads: Not surprising, except that he has nothing to say on anything against Beef, and is strongly still holding him up as town.
Leaning Town: Making Flubber and Bella lean town is interesting to me. It doesn't commit to pinning Flub as town but says "I can't really pinpoint what it is that gives me my townread on Flubbernugget." I left Bella in for context of the earlier exchange.
Scum Reads:

Way to play it safe.

Somehow people are still holding on to Max-Scum. I personally don't see it but ok. Still holding on to PP Scum? Ok yeah I really can't see that atm. Riding the PP train feels a bit blatant considering we don't currently have a lot to go off of from Transcend.

Tex?!

Are you sure? The one, safe bet for a scumread. "But they've been lurking!" C'mon man. This feels so strongly like it's the one wagon you could get away with shifting to. It feels dirty and I don't like it at all.

VOTE: Klick

This is the part I'm disappointed in. Your main, damning evidence that seems to be the primary cause for your vote against me is... my reads are safe and you theorize that it's something I could easily get away with as scum. I'll provide an alternate explanation: I'm town and these are my actual reads.
I'm "playing it safe" with my scumreads, but I give a fair amount of explanation for these reads. I'm not entirely confident in a Max scumread, and that should have been obvious in my explanation.
There's a reason I didn't vote Transcend; honestly that's where I want my vote, and if Transcend doesn't impress me in his next few posts a case and vote from me is probably going his way. But I'm giving Transcend an opportunity to come in and change my mind. I'm putting practically zero pressure on the slot, so I'm not seeing how it can be called opportunistic.
Your problem with my tex read is that he's a "safe bet" for a scumread. Does that make it any less likely that I suspect and vote him as town? I have legitimate problems with his vote on Flubbernugget; why don't you actually look at my reasoning and give some insight on it? I don't bring up "lurking" as a reason for voting tex

once

. That has nothing to do with my suspicion or vote. I think tex is scum, I've given reasons for thinking so, I'm treating him just like I would treat any other suspect, lurker or not.
On top of that, you're calling my reads safe, but if that's the case, why am I defending townreads on COA, Flubber, Beefster, and Bella, all of which have a decent amount of pressure on them right now? Particularly COA, who I'd mentioned nothing about reads-wise up to this point. I could have easily joined that wagon as scum - and it's got a lot more steam currently than tex's wagon. I didn't, because my actual read on COA is that she's town. My read on tex is scum, hence the vote.

Your reasons for thinking I'm scum are primarily theory that,

if I'm scum,

I'm taking the easy options. You have no reason to think your theories are true, just that they are possible.

[Klick]

@Thor:

Could you please explain why you find Flubber scummy to me? Show some of your cards; I want to see what you're seeing.

Short answer - gut.
Long answer - I'll break it down to a single point to try to explain the gut. But basically Flubber went in pretty deep on discrediting/attacking me. In and amongst that attack he leveled a complaint that our meta together shows I read him fast and he finds it questionable on some level that I haven't read him fast enough here. And that's a reasonably valid stance to have, I suppose.

Except I don't recall that as a meta with him -

so I asked him to back it up.

I got crickets. Nada. Zilch. Zero.

Now, on a theoretical level - let's say he's town, therefore what he's saying is true.
Why wouldn't he throw that info in my face to force me to respond to help him get a read on me/prove to others I was scum?
I can literally think of no reason.

Now let's say he's town and he recalled wrong - is there any reason outside of personal shame not to kind of go 'oops, recalled wrong!' and adjust how he's interacting with me because now he has a better read of me because he's corrected wrong info?
Nothing I can think of - and his attitude towards me assuredly hasn't shifted, has it?

Now let's say he's scuma nd was lying/misrepping the reality of our history.
Avoiding *that* discussion makes a whole lot of sense.
Doubling down with a "ooooh, I said Thor should read me fast and now he's voting me" curls my toes also as it ignores that theoretically he claims to think I *do* read him fast and hard, and also ignores that I tried to interact with him functionally multiple times and he's avoided it while claiming I'm not reading him fast enough.

He's been avoiding a lot while casting shade and mud constantly (reference my ongoing of just trying to get him to explain why he thinks the wagon on him is bad considering all the shade he's tossing out about it)

That;s why I'm voting him.

The bolded bit is the part I'm not seeing. You had said "I am?" in response to him mentioning your apparent meta of reading him quickly. I didn't really immediately see that as you asking him to prove it. Flubber claims to have also not seen it this way. That opens up possible town motivation of not responding then just due to not seeing it as a question.

I do want to see Flubber back up the claim though.

@Flubber:

could I see an example or two of why you think Thor should be able to read you quickly?

[Klick]

That's fair, HWS. Gut read based on attempting to find townreads. I had similar things early on with Maxous, but I don't think it's too difficult to fake, and he hasn't given me much more to go off of.

[Klick]

No. I don't see Bella-scum definitively and I don't think we get very much info by pushing the Bella slot.

[Klick]

RC HELLO do you remember me

[Klick]

Unfortunately yes

My first 2-3 years on-site were absolute shit

[Klick]

Part of that is my fault. I asked RC a fluff question and we had a fluff conversation for a little bit.

[Klick]

and kilck, what is it with you defending the bella/rc slot so hard?

I'm just stating what I see

[Klick]

texcat: I had a weak gut townread on texcat earlier. It was based on Post 58 seeming like genuine opinions. It was small, and I now feel like it is something tex would do as either alignment based on her posting style.
But the Flubbernugget vote is really, really bad. She gave no real indication she had any sort of read on Flubbernugget before the vote. Her vote was based on hypocrisy, not really alignment-indicative in any sense. But she's gung-ho about it, and sets Flub into what seems to me like a manipulated lose-lose scenario. I don't believe texcat actually has the opinion on Flub she claims to have. It's too flashy, too overconfident.

Chuckling at the "really, really bad." Sounds like a tweet from Trump. What makes you think that hypocrisy is not AI? I was not "gung-ho" about my vote at all.

So make a case or something

Hmmmm...

VOTE: Flubbernugget
Telling me to make a case, when you are not. Plus telling us that voting Bella is a town thing to do, when you are not.

I only became sure of my scum read on Flubber when he OMGUS voted me. I didn't force him into any kind of scenario. Flubber's vote was the "really, really bad" vote, especially the part about me shading Bella, when he has called votes on her townie and repeatedly questioned the gut townread on me.

First of all, that's not the first time I've used "really" more than once to describe something, even in this game. It's the way I speak and describe things sometimes.
The burden of proof is on you. What makes you think hypocrisy is more likely to come from scum than town? He told you to make a case, and he said Bella votes were pro-town, yet he did neither. Why does this lead you to suspect him?

Tell me this: if Flubber had continued not to post reads after you applied pressure on him, would you see that as scummy?

[Klick]

VOTE: Transcend

[Klick]

moz, join us on Transcend.

[Klick]

Transcend, idea: explain some of your reads

[Klick]

Go on then, humor me. Quote any of your posts so far that explain your scumread on me. I call bullshit.

[Klick]

If there's a big that's not transcend, your way of ccing is to just not shoot tonight.

[Klick]

If there's a big that's not transcend, your way of ccing is to just not shoot tonight.

err no it's to shoot transcend in the fucking face lol

...true. I'm dumb.

[Klick]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: texcat

[Klick]

Go on then, humor me. Quote any of your posts so far that explain your scumread on me. I call bullshit.

If you shoot me without answering this, this will be the last game I ever play with you.

[Klick]

@Transcend

Go on then, humor me. Quote any of your posts so far that explain your scumread on me. I call bullshit.

[Klick]

Beef, my problem is that I think you're town but I disagree with all of your reads. You being lynched won't help me at all.

But that probably won't matter anyway because Transcend seems hellbent on shooting me

[Klick]

I haven't seen very many people give HWS townreads. I'm getting the same impression he's good as scum, which is why I can't place him as a townread right now. He hasn't really done anything scummy though.

[Klick]

I'd probably suggest a vig on either EP or texcat. Vig shots are best suited for more lurker-style players imo, since we won't get much info from their lynches, and they probably won't be killed by scum if they're town.

I know I've been a little rude about the whole thing irt you not explaining your scumread on me. It just frustrates me because I don't understand it, and I feel like if you were to just shoot me tonight it would be unjustified.

[Klick]

I'd prefer a tex wagon, but I am willing to compromise on an EP lynch at this point if no one wants to join me.

[Klick]

I'd probably suggest a vig on either EP or texcat. Vig shots are best suited for more lurker-style players imo, since we won't get much info from their lynches, and they probably won't be killed by scum if they're town.

I know I've been a little rude about the whole thing irt you not explaining your scumread on me. It just frustrates me because I don't understand it, and I feel like if you were to just shoot me tonight it would be unjustified.

Right gotta get those lurkers cause they're lurking : p

Not cause they're scum ^_^

Not because they're lurking, necessarily. They're not showing signs of being town. I've got a large portion of this player list marked as town, meaning that if I were the vig I'd start playing PoE with people who weren't giving much indication of their alignment.

Please respond to the point I've been asking you to respond to for pages now.

[Klick]

Moneybags I'm on mobile atm. Could you give me a short summary of why you're currently scumreading Beef? Because I was very convinced by your Beef-town reasoning early on and I'm really not seeing the scumreads. Talk it through with me.

[Klick]

Please, Transcend.

[Klick]

Thor and/or RC, could you help me get the answer I want from Transcend, since he is very blatantly ignoring me?

[Klick]

VOTE: ErrantParabola

[Klick]

It's difficult to react. Because claiming vig makes no sense as scum, and he's claiming desire to shoot me and I don't understand his reasoning. I feel like I'm locked out of the game because someone replaced into the game with a gun and decided to shoot me and ignore all my posts.

[Klick]

I

could

do that... Hmm... If only I had some motivation...

[Klick]

Spoiler: Off-Topic - Response to Thor

It's difficult to react. Because claiming vig makes no sense as scum, and he's claiming desire to shoot me and I don't understand his reasoning. I feel like I'm locked out of the game because someone replaced into the game with a gun and decided to shoot me and ignore all my posts.

Well, if you believe he's the Vig then the only answer is that you, as town, should do what you can to express your reads clearly and push for a functional scum lynch.
Of course that's what any town player should do all the time regardless.
I don't see why the threat even matters, personally.

This isn't exactly related to the game. But it matters because this is the first time I've had any personal interest in a Mafia game in over three years. I'm going to be extremely bothered if that ends early because someone replaces into the vig slot, randomly scumreads me, doesn't have any reasoning, and shoots me while completely ignoring me asking them to justify themselves. That's why I'm making such a big deal out of this.

My issue right now is that I have no very solid scumreads. I have strong townreads that I wouldn't be willing to budge on; those would be Beefster, COA, and at this point RC. Lesser townreads are on mozamis, Moneybags, and Flubbernugget, though I accept being possibly wrong on these and won't be flat-out devastated if one of these three are lynched. Transcend isn't an option simply because of the vig claim. That leaves my available options as texcat, EP, Thor, Maxous, and HWS. I do think the scumteam is within these five players.

While this is all good and fine in terms of my own confidence in solving the game, it doesn't lead me to be able to influentially push towards a lynch option. And that's why my pushes may be perceived as "safe" - I haven't seen anything that damns anyone as scum.

[Klick]

...hmm. I'll look into the Beefster wagon. Gonna try to see who all was on it on mobile. The way I see it, assuming the Beefster wagon was all my townreads, there are two possibilities:

1. Scum is primarily lurking, with a potential scum or two in Thor/HWS avoiding obvious lynch option Beefster while also not talking it down. I think this is possible, because Beef has brought enough attention to himself to garner some town votes. But probably...
2. One of my leaning town reads is wrong and is part of this Beef push. Looking into the wagon should help me discern who.

[Klick]

I admit weak feelings on Moneybags/Flubber/mozamis at this point and if a decent scum case is presented is presented on one of these three and I agree with the points I'm willing to follow it. It's at the point where one of my townreads is most likely just dead wrong, and those are the three I feel most comfortable testing today.

[Klick]

I believe Transcend. His and PP's behaviour can also be explained by them being PR.
I feel better about RC, I probably just had a bad first impression.
Max is town.
Mox is town but off his rocker.

VOTE: Beefster

This is a townpost.

@RC:

You mentioned a hard townread on HWS in 570 - do you still have that? If so, why, because I'm really not seeing it
also sorry Trans, I'd said I didn't see who had the HWS townread, apparently it was RC!

Everything about the last like fifteen pages screams Money-town to me I can't let that go just yet


Of all the Beef votes the only one I'm seeing as possible scum in any sense right now is Flub. As much as my gut really wants to call Flub town I don't have anything as evidence to support that, so I'm going to have to concede to a Flub lynch if he's the counter to one of my more justified townreads.

[Klick]

VOTE: Flubbernugget

I think I'm wrong about one of my townreads on the Beef wagon, and I think this is by far the most likely. I've put together that originally my gut townread of Flubber was essentially based on this idea: Flubber looks "traditionally" scummy, but a lot of that is largely due to his play style, therefore he's town being misunderstood. But there's a flaw in that; he should have been a null read, not a townread. My gut was screaming because the suspicions in him seemed unfounded, not because he was doing towny things.

I do realize that this essentially leaves me voting a null read still, and I do still think the primary reasons for suspecting Flubber are silly. Thor's case in particular feels very weak, and nothing else is compelling me. But I have exactly zero compelling scumreads at the moment, and this is a wagon I'm merely satisfied with. Transcend claiming vig really shot my reads in the foot.

[Klick]

@moz

I have exactly zero compelling scumreads at the moment, and this is a wagon I'm merely satisfied with.

That's as much reasoning as you're going to get.

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

Three basically confirmed town on the Beef wagon.
COA, Moneybags, mozamis are the three that aren't confirmed.

I'm willing to consider the possibility that the Beef wagon was all-town. If that's the case, then what were the scum doing?
Grabbing my laptop to do a reread of the votes prior to that.

[Klick]

texcat and Thor have had their votes parked on Flubber since Page 8.
I believe at least one of them is scum and has been very comfortably floating this Flubber scumread all game.

And that leads me back to:
VOTE: texcat

[Klick]

Elaborate on what exactly? It was basically analysis of who could potentially be scum hopping on your lynch. COA is super town, Moneybags is a town read, and I'm still not convinced of moz-scum (though that's probably where my vote will go if I HAVE to choose someone on your wagon).

I think scum could have been avoiding your wagon. They could have thought your vote could easily fuel itself and found safe places to plant themselves instead. See: the Flubber wagon.

[Klick]

Flubber - should be confirmed town when the mod next posts, claimed IC
Transcend - should be confirmed town when there are two kills tonight
RC - the third PR unless anyone would like to claim otherwise

[Klick]

Implied earlier, but I'm VT.

Phone ISO re-evaluation of mozamis reveals that his thought process is very consistent. I want to go with RC's push but I'm really not seeing mozamis flipping scum right now.

I implore people to join me on texcat. It's not lurking that bothers me here at all; it's the fact that his vote has been on Flubber literally all game and the initial push was terrible in the first place. I think it's a better direction to go in than anything else that's being pushed.

I'm also willing to join a Thor flash wagon if that winds up happening.

[Klick]

I'll join if no other lynch can happen, or if it's him vs Beefster or something. I really don't think moz is scum. But if he does get lynched and flip scum you'll get massive kudos from me.

[Klick]

Well, carp. That's a revolting development.
UNVOTE:

I would have cc'd long before now, if I were not VT.

so you scum with Thor and Hewho?
Funny if all scum were on the IC.

Now you're on the right track. I actually PMed the mod with a preemptive guess at this team.

[Klick]

Yeah. It's a pet theory with nothing but gut to back it up. But it's a thought.

[Klick]

Not quite. You have three clears outside of that, increasing the odds to 1/8.
I'll give you your scumread on moz that you seem sold on. I don't think there's any way you can legitimately be close to certain that EP is scum. Your odds should be more like 2/9 with EP in the uncertain pool.

[Klick]

...really? Just because you don't get your way you're going to check out? I thought you were being a pretty solid force in this game, but if you're just going to quit when people don't do whatever you want then I wish you hadn't replaced in in the first place.

[Klick]

See, I agree with the things you're saying now. But I interpreted what you said earlier as just going completely out for the rest of the game and sheeping townreads - in which case my response would be my last post. I'm in a similar place of not being a HUGE fan of any of the probable wagon options, but that's because I'm not super confident in anyone being scum. In which case, sheeping is perfectly acceptable.

If tex doesn't die now, hes probably going to stay in the same state of "meh we can take him or leave him" all game. I think that makes him a decent lynch today.

[Klick]

*she, her, etc. Sorry tex.

[Klick]

Thor, why are you voting HWS?

And if you're going to provide the answer "because he's scum," my follow-up is "why?"

[Klick]

We only get so many lynches to kill off scum. If we don't take them all, we have to be more accurate on average.

[Klick]

Spoiler: @Beefster: Completely off-topic

Are you watching King Richard play Fortnite on Twitch? Because I just saw someone with your username in the chat XD

[Klick]

RC Trans Flub conftown
Moz leaning town
Thor leaning scum
HWS null
Moneybags town
texcat leaning scum
Beefster town
COA town
Maxous null
EP null

[Klick]

VOTE: HeWhoSwims

Fine.

[Klick]

I'm also very much against moneybags getting shot. At the very least shoot someone we're not going to get much more out of. If moneybags IS scum, leaving him around for D2 is pro-town.

[Klick]

I had fun playing with you

[Klick]

RC that was a terrible track, Transcend was practically confirmed town.

I'm surprised by how little traction the tex wagon had in the end there. I think there could have easily been two scum wagons D1 and scum had little-to-no influence in either. Tex and HWS weren't particularly willing to vote each other ever.

VOTE: texcat

Scum between Tex/Thor/moz/EP? Not really feeling Max anymore.

[Klick]

Anyone else find it interesting that Transcend was shot first over RC? Suggests that scum were actually in the pool of people he considered shooting.

VOTE: Klick

Voting here for now, doing some reviewing.

Transcend makes much more sense as a kill than RC because Transcend's PR is much more powerful than RC's, and we now have an even number of players which is worse than odd.

Anyone in a scum slot would be able to see this. You don't appear to have seen it at all, further cementing my townread on you.

[Klick]

Transcend doesn't get his

second

shot. Which changes everything. That's why the Vig was made two-shot in this setup, and why vigs are numbered evenly in general. Eventually we could end up in MyLo, where optimal play is to no-lynch. Killing Transcend essentially means town lost a town-controlled kill.

[Klick]

Transcend doesn't get his

second

shot. Which changes everything. That's why the Vig was made two-shot in this setup, and why vigs are numbered evenly in general. Eventually we could end up in MyLo, where optimal play is to no-lynch. Killing Transcend essentially means town lost a town-controlled kill.

We get to lylo either way...

You've never seen this before Thor? I'm baffled.
Assume two scum are alive at LyLo or MyLo.

13 players
Lynch - 12 players, 1 town kill
NK on Vig and Vig shot - 10 players, 2 town kills
Lynch - 9 players, 3 town kills
NK - 8 players
Lynch - 7 players, 4 town kills
NK - 6 players. Town has had 4 kills before not being allowed a mislynch.

13 players
Lynch - 12 players, 1 town kill
NK and Vig shot - 10 players, 2 town kills
Lynch - 9 players, 3 town kills
NK and Vig shot - 7 players, 4 town kills
Lynch - 6 players, 5 town kills
NK - 5 players. Town has had 5 kills before not being allowed a mislynch.

Transcend living last night would have been nothing but good for town.

[Klick]

I believe vig kills are superior to scum kills. Which is what it's just been replaced with. We just lost a town kill. See my last post.

[Klick]

I'm not arguing that Transcend's kill on Moneybags was good. It was awful. I'm also not arguing that Vigs in general are pro-town. I'm arguing that Transcend's second Vig shot could have only been good for town. Because instead of that Vig kill, scum now have an extra night kill eventually. A vig kill is certainly better for town than that.

[Klick]

Fuck me, I was really banking on dying last night
Okay I'm outta time for clear reasons but, yeah. Reading soon and all that, fuck

This feels like a bit of an unethical argument. But:

I believe wholeheartedly that EP wouldn't straight-up lie about out-of-game problems.
Similarly, I don't think they're fudging the truth about banking on dying last night.
Scum who just lost a partner don't bank on dying last night.

EP is now a strong townread and I don't feel justified allowing a lynch on them any time in the foreseeable future.

[Klick]

Okay, so what were the scum's objectives yesterday?

Quick 5-tier read post, I feel like my previous explanations + what I've addressed since should be enough for now.

T: Mozamis, Moneybags
TL: Thor665, Beefster, COA, Max
N: Klick, texcat, EP
SL: (Transcend), Bellaphant, Flubbernugget
S: -

Transcend read is obviously mostly based on Penguin hence the brackets.

Conftown Transcend, RC

Town

Townlean Thor, Moneybags, Klick?, Beef

Null Mozamis, tex, COA, Max?

Scumlean Flubber, EP

Scum

If people want me voting then VOTE: Flubbernugget but as said, I'm just barely 100% confident.

HWS was satisfied with the direction of yesterday's wagons up to this point. We already know that most major wagons yesterday were town. HWS doesn't feel the need to push the game in any direction until now. However, he was pushed into voting, leading to not much info being gained from the Flubber vote. He never votes again after voting Flubber. There's not much to glean from HWS's motives.
Random catch looking through HWS's ISO, however:

oooo I like 622. That's a catch on Beef copying. That's certainly suspicious.

I don't think this reaction is something HWS would give if either COA or Beef were scum (COA being the owner of the post HWS is talking about). HWS casually rides on the back of COA's accusation of Beef. In the event of COA-scum I suspect we wouldn't have seen such direct approval of the post. HWS also seems a bit too enthusiastic about the content he's seen and how it affects his (fake) view on Beefster. As a more general note on HWS's reads on Beefster, he seems to default into reading him as leaning town. He dips into scumlean territory momentarily, switches it to null with explanation, then back to leaning town for no apparent reason. He's not putting too much thought into his Beefster read in the long-term in a way that I feel he'd do if Beef was his buddy.

Other than that, I struggle to read into HWS's motivations during the day at all.
What were the other two scum trying to do?

We can presume they're pushing mislynches. The PR wagons weren't all town-on-town, surely.
RC claims with literally just Max and moz on him. Not much to gain from analysis here.

Spoiler: VCA

Vote Count 1.5

Transcend

(4): CultOfAthena, Klick, mozamis, Maxous

Flubbernugget

(2): texcat, Thor665

Beefster

(1): RadiantCowbells

mozamis

(1): Beefster

texcat

(1): Flubbernugget

Not Voting

(4): Moneybags, Transcend, HeWhoSwims, Errantparabola

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-01-24 20:00:56)

RC was on this Transcend wagon before the claim, but he's town so it doesn't matter. There's probably scum influence in the Transcend push here. I'm also still convinced at least one of tex/Thor is scum who sat on Flubber all day yesterday.

Vote Count 1.6

Flubbernugget

(3): texcat, Thor665, Moneybags

Beefster

(3): mozamis, CultOfAthena, Flubbernugget

Errantparabola

(2): RadiantCowbells, Klick

CultOfAthena

(1): Beefster

texcat

(1): Transcend

Not Voting

(3): Errantparabola, HeWhoSwims, Maxous

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-01-24 20:00:56)

super speed!

This Flub wagon gains RC, HWS, and myself, in that order. So to create a VC for the moment Flub claims:

Flubbernugget

(6): texcat, Thor665, Moneybags, RadiantCowbells, HeWhoSwims, Klick

Beefster

(3): mozamis, CultOfAthena, Flubbernugget

CultOfAthena

(1): Beefster

texcat

(1): Transcend

Not Voting

(2): Errantparabola, Maxous

HWS joined the Flub wagon. Likely two scum on this wagon; I don't think HWS joins as the third scum on a wagon he doesn't claim to have much confidence in. Notably, there's a push on Beef that has moz/Cult as non-confirmed players.


Another notable VC:

Actual VC 1.8

texcat

(5): Klick, Moneybags, RadiantCowbells, mozamis, Beefster

Beefster

(3): CultOfAthena, Flubbernugget, texcat

HeWhoSwims

(2): Transcend, Thor665

Errantparabola

(1): Maxous

Not Voting

(2): Errantparabola, HeWhoSwims

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-01-24 20:00:56)

tex jumps off of Flub, onto obvtown Beefster. Two conftown are on the texcat wagon. The only scum I really see possibly being on this wagon is moz.

Based on all of this, I suspect the scumteam is between {texcat, Thor, mozamis, Maxous}, with at least one of tex/Thor for sure. I find moz more likely scum than Max.


With that... I'm very satisfied with my tex vote. I'll also take a Thor lynch without problems.

[Klick]

1. It's in post 1285. Essentially the logic follows like this:

- EP is unlikely to be lying to us all about out-of-game issues keeping them from this.
- The guilt about not being here is genuine, and I do not think they are fudging the truth about anything in regards to activity issues.
- Therefore, when EP claims they were banking on dying last night, they mean it. It's an ethical argument; I don't think EP expresses guilt about not being around while simultaneously using it to their advantage by lying about these circumstances.
- If EP was banking on dying last night... That sort of thinking is much more likely coming from town than scum. Scum with only one partner left doesn't have any desire to get shot by the vig.

I have a lot of trouble seeing post 1174 coming from scum!EP.

2. Where do I say this? If I conveyed that it was unintentional; I very much meant to leave that possibility on the table. The only pairing in those four I can't see is moz/Max due to VCA.

3. Reading your posts directed at moz, I don't see a reason they're not scum talking to scum. Particularly, you're arguing that moz is scum, but your arguments aren't very persuasive and I think you could be aware of that. In fact, most of the game your reads have been expressed for what seems to be your own sake instead of trying to persuade.

Reading moz's posts directed at you... yeah you have a point. He is tunneling you hard. I'm picturing a theoretical daytalk chat between you two where moz says he's going to throw you under the bus hard, and I don't quite see it.

[Klick]

Hello RC I am somewhat here.

Also skimming your spam, you mention a Klick/texcat scumteam - which I argue sounds ridiculous if you look at who I've been pushing all game

[Klick]

That plan makes no sense if you consider that HWS has been lynched. Furthermore, if I'm scum, I'm absolutely not set up to be an endgame scum.

[Klick]

No one with a big voice has a townread on me. I'm inevitably lynched before endgame, even if there's a texcat scumflip.

If you think we're the scumteam though, I'll happily go along with half of those lynches.

[Klick]

The scumteam of me/tex makes zero sense and would essentially mean that every single town push in this game has been driven by other town. Because HWS pushed nothing, tex has pushed nothing, and I've basically only had my bet against tex-scum. With all the town wagons yesterday, that would be an extreme surprise.

I'm the part you're wrong on. Your reads on the whole match mine closely. I have a townread on EP where you don't. I could pretty easily see Thor/tex.

[Klick]

RC, what did you want me around for exactly?

[Klick]

The fact of the matter is, I'm not certain in tex-scum. I have doubts. Some things tex says look towny to me. But I could say that about everyone in the game at the moment. It's largely PoE - I have very strong townreads on Beef, CoA, and EP - combined with a general lack of presence and feeling "less town" than everyone else.

While looking at tex and HWS in joint-ISO to look at who would be a potential third partner, I came across this:

Leaves at null: ErrantP, texcat, Klick, and Thor, but apparently we need to read Thor as... Thor.

The townreads/leans are the people I really don't want to lynch today. I can live with the null ones except Thor probably. We have a lot of time left though.

This puts a lot of doubt in my mind about tex and Thor both being scum, and about Thor being scum in general. I don't think HWS bothers with this comment if Thor is his partner; if Thor's in that scum chat, I imagine HWS would already have an idea of Thor's play style via his own description, and thus HWS wouldn't be very surprised by how people are reading Thor.

Anyway. I suppose right now I'd say the most likely partner of HWS and tex is moz, followed by Maxous.

But I'm going to UNVOTE: . Something feels wrong about tex-scum looking at her and HWS in ISO together. I need to reevaluate.

[Klick]

VOTE: mozamis

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

Another detailed look at this tonight.

[Klick]

In class making a somewhat rushed post. I'm not going to commit to making a post tonight. I intend to, but people will get all pissy if I don't follow through.

I was prepared to vote COA last night. I think my original reason for hard townreading her today is unjustified - her not seeing the reason Transcend was the obvious shot made me think town, but Thor didn't see it either. Furthermore, COA's last few posts today have been horrendous, and if that were all I could see from her I would vote her, no question.

I went through COA's ISO last night after hypothesizing on her being scum. I didn't think she was scum upon review; her scumread on me was extremely consistent. But it was past 4 in the morning, and skimming her ISO right now, I'm disagreeing that it's particularly towny.

Therefore:
VOTE: CultOfAthena

Case coming soon. It's largely revolving around her last few posts.

[Klick]

EP, picture a world where COA flips scum. Who's a viable third to that team?

[Klick]

That's reasonable, Thor. I guess actually achieving a lynch on COA today is unlikely regardless of what kind of case I present.

I don't like any of the wagon options. I suppose my favorite is tex.

VOTE: texcat

[Klick]

My main reason for liking the tex wagon over the moz wagon at this point is that I think tex will basically always be a lynch option until she's finally lynched. I think moz has potential to not be a lynch option at some point.

[Klick]

Beef and Thor are rather obvious town based on interactions with the flipped scum.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

[Klick]

The case is coming

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

I no longer have confidence in the COA scumread. But for the sake of it, I'll still provide what I saw at the time and why I viewed it as scummy. It was primarily focused on COA's posts on Page 66:

He's going out of his way to drag up a confirmed town to make a town case on HWS at a point HWS is not in lynch danger.
Now, *maybe* this is a roundabout way to protect HWS from a Vig.
But I'm not sure I see it.

You should both offer me some feedback on that, *because*;

Can you explain where the "confirmed town" part of this comes in? Because what you just described sounds mostly like a scum strategy to me – a pretty good one, in fact.

It comes from a lack of a counterclaim.

Okay, reading comprehension failure on my part for that line.

So you're saying that if you were scum, and you had a scumbuddy not in danger of a lynch, you would ask other people to defend him to you while you were bussing him?
Because that sounds like a defense move, not a bussing move.
To rephrase - that move makes a lot of sense if the goal was to *not* see HWS flipped for your own towncred.
Klick's votes don't support that reality.

While we're at it, who do you see as the most likely scum on the Moz wagon and the HWS wagon - or do you think either/both wagons are totally town driven (and if so, why?)

I disagree – that move has two outcomes: the first is that a conftown builds a town case on your scumbuddy, giving them more town cred. The second is that, if that partner

were

to ever flip, you would look good from it, being able to point back and say that you knew all along. I would say that immediately getting your partner flipped isn't always the end goal of bussing – it's more about getting the nonassociative. Even if the main goal

is

to immediately get the partner flipped, having a town case to dissect seems a lot easier than building your own scum case on someone.

That's not to say that I think Klick went through this entire same thought process – just that I don't understand where your townread there is coming from. I think Klick was the scum on both wagons.

I saw this entire miniature push against me as scum-motivated. It seemed as though COA was setting up for having the opportunity to push me whenever she wanted, silently keeping a scumread on me without a vote to back it up. COA starts Day 2 with a vote on me, then switches her vote to EP with very little reasoning. The situation looked as though she was setting up her reads to fit a longer-term goal.

However, that night I went and looked through her ISO from the beginning and she's literally had some kind of low-key scumread on me the entire game and it hasn't changed. I find that null.

[Klick]

Thanks for those, I was about to go back and look

[Klick]

good vote, can we finally do this?
obv i'll go back to tex if need be.
VOTE: hewhoswims

What is scum-moz's motivation here? The tex wagon is more dominant at this point in time. moz-scum has no motivation for a weak flip from one partner to another.

[Klick]

I've had a low-key gut townread on Maxous for a while and was going through the double-ISO of tex and HWS to try and find some connection tells to support that read. The problem is, it makes way too much sense. You have HWS with a weak town lean on Maxous early on that shifts to a null read without explanation when tex becomes a scumlean. HWS gives support for the Maxous townlean but is wishy-washy and not willing to commit. Then you have tex listing Maxous as her secondary scumread over Flubber early on, and a bunch of empty posts between the two of them attempting to feign interaction. D2 tex negatively tones her posts towards Maxous without ever daring to step into pushing territory. (notably, tex lists Maxous, COA and EP as the votes off the HWS wagon other than Beef, and says she'd support a COA vote the most - town points for COA, not great for Maxous.) I'm liking Maxous-scum a lot based on association. I'm not sure based on his own play, though.

Beefster's a hard townread, and that's reinforced by texcat's play yesterday. She really wanted her Beefster case to go through. It didn't look like bussing at all.

[Klick]

alright i've done 25 pages. i might do the rest tomorrow, i might not.

Errant and HWS are scum.

Texcat and Athena are fighting it out for the last spot. Maybeish Thor.
g'night

Maxous, I'm going through your ISO and I just want to say - kudos to you if you're town

[Klick]

Texcat has done nothing to make me remember that he is in this game.

This is a very minute point - but I feel as though scum-COA uses the correct pronoun in this post. From what I saw in COA's completed scum game, I don't feel as though she's the type of player to fake a "townslip" to this degree.

[Klick]

Yeahhh I'm having a lot of trouble seeing that post coming from scum-COA. It's very early in the game, like page 11, and if she's scum, she doesn't bother bringing that attention to her partner that early. It's pointless. It's much more likely coming from a town perspective.

I feel reasonably confident in Thor, Beefster, COA and mozamis-town at this stage. Leaving Maxous and EP.


VOTE: Maxous

[Klick]

There's a difference. Your comment is more fleshed out, clarification beforehand that you're not sure what it is that's causing tex's silence. COA's is literally just an offhand comment with little thought put into it.

FWIW I don't want to believe you're scum. I just feel the same way about most people in the game currently, to a greater extent.

[Klick]

I'm avoiding a prod and waiting to see how EP's line of questioning unfolds.

[Klick]

I can't buy into this COA wagon. I'm also flopping again on Maxous-scum.

VOTE: Errantparabola

I'd like to see where this goes.

[Klick]

I've given reasons several times over the course of this game as to why I have trouble with COA-scum. There are reasons to scumread her and they're not invalid. But I think she's town.

[Klick]

That's literally the only piece of evidence in this game that I can pull EP-town from, is the thing. A single towntell doesn't give me enough confidence to stick by a townread. Meanwhile, I have multiple reasons to townread you, Beefster, Thor, COA, Maxous.

[Klick]

Thank you. I was busy for Valentine's Day. Basically what moz said.

[Klick]

I agree with the stance EP is taking that this day is basically stagnant until a lynch is achieved.
The reason I haven't done so much is because my stance has failed to change significantly. Nothing is changing, and I have the possibly pessimistic opinion that nothing will change for some time. And contrary to what Thor is implying, it's okay to end a day if things are getting stagnant and not many people are posting.
With that in mind:

I'm willing to hammer COA. I'm continually flip-flopping on my read of her, and despite my reasons to townread her I would not be

surprised

if she flipped scum. But the main reason I'm fine with this is because she's been the only person today who has been playing totally survivalist. Reading over today, I have trouble seeing the scum motivation in EP and Max's posts - but COA's is crystal clear.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Here's hoping.

[Klick]

Oh sick! I should have stopped doubting my COA read, I knew it was right but kept listening to the voice in my head that said it was wrong.

GG everyone. This was really fun, made me like Mafia again. Thor, you're more fun than I remember. Maybe because I'm not as completely awful as I used to be?

[Klick]

I love the dead thread cheering me on

[Klick]

Happy birthday HWS!!