Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

Wow this game sure looks
Awful

[Mathdino]

more absolutely not coming
i'm not encouraging this kind of game by reading it chronologically
i have 3 things to say

1. If you're scumreading me, stop. That goes out especially to NSG, who can confirm the majority of the following. I figured out how to read eth0s. I meta-dove him before I signed up for this game; his meta is essentially "If he sounds like a fucking awful player with half his posts, he's scum. If he sounds actually pretty intelligent in most of them, he's town". I can walk you through the process, etc etc.

I'm on record multiple places for only voluntarily replacing into town slots. I would hate rolling scum in a newbie game. And on top of my experience with ethos, I'm a good townhunter. My ability to townhunt player slots is way better than 77% (the chance of rolling town in a newbie).

So if you trust my ability to metadive someone and come out with a townread on them (which you absolutely should if you look at my game history), stop scumreadnig me.

2. I'm taking that and NSG's probably incoming disapproval as explicitly not consenting to me trying to break the setup. That's cool.

Basically, tracker claiming on D1 is optimal play for reasons, and the fact that I haven't already claimed tracker means I'm not the tracker. I'm not fakeclaiming tracker (drawing a counterclaim) because I don't want to shift the meta to make it okay for scum to do that.

If you're the tracker, and you wanna be a cool guy who increases our win odds by probably like 5%, feel free to claim, but idrc this game for other reasons.

3.

As said, I'm not fucking reading this. I only read half of ethos's ISO and even that was painful. Everyone's ISO is painful. So I would like everyone to submit the following:

- At most 3 of your own posts prior to my replace-in that I need to read to understand/be convinced by your perspective on the game.
- At most 3 of other people's posts that you want me to get a read on, or that you think stand out in some way (feel free to give me context or not).

In the meantime, I'm gonna get a read on NSG and not respond to these hilariously long walls.

[Mathdino]

you can also opt to summarise the game from your biased-ass points of view

also i'm gonna look at reasons people had scumreads on ethos

playing "dumb or scum" is always a good place to start

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
probably a bad vote
while it's nice that ethos is conftown and all i don't intend to read his posts for actual sheepworthy content

also full disclosure
i almost didn't sign up for this game solely because NSG was scumreading my slot
i was townreading it, and then figured "okay, NSG/skitter30 can't BOTH be scum with ethos", so i ISO'd the two of them looking to sheep their read on ethos just in case
(these are the two players i essentially consider sheepworthy)
anyway NSG had like no spicy reasons to be scumreading ethos and no one even called her on it going by her never actually fucking talking about it (thanks guys)
so i ignored that as lol-NSG and replaced in to show how much cooler i am at reading this slot

[Mathdino]

Hahahaha is the deadline literally in 2 days

Yall better get to work

[Mathdino]

Holy shit this vote count is godawful

I read like 2 of oxys posts and the guy's obvtown

I'm gonna see ethoss reasoning here but jesus christ I'd rather no lynch than lynch there

[Mathdino]

FML

NSG is unfortunately not scum here i don't think

of course any instance of me townreading NSG takes into account the idea that NSG has improved her scumgame since last time, but i think there are a few things way outside her scumrange

that said NSG you're deep in tunnel mode and you've somehow (i'm not reading your trajectory sorry) convinced yourself into a view of the gamestate that scumreads the 2 most obvtown slots

NSG town, oxy town, ethos town, i'm sheeping NSG on her pintu read, so we're doing this
VOTE: Scioness
from skimming ethos's ISO (i was looking for stuff on oxy and it was all bad) i got the impression that scioness has largely been ignored as a slot
she has a large scumrange (aka doesn't get wagoned as scum) so that's concerning as fuck

Edit: oh kill me now more walls

[Mathdino]

I don't know what I"m doing in this sentence. (Although it's nice to know you think I'm sheepworthy lol)

From my POV highlights of the game are as follows:

Oxy is driving the game. Oxy seems LAMIST to me. Oxy/Scioness had some sort of 1v1 that I don't remember what it was about even tbh. In middle of the 1v1 ruru votes eth0s and it makes me feel like she's trying to divert away from the 1v1; if there's scum in {oxy/scioness} I think ruru may be a partner because of it. All the while eth0s, drixx, nsg-slot are lurking and/or afk and/or totally absent. Oxy posts 379 and I kinda hate it and like all of his posts on that page and immediately thereafter. I vote Drixx for a cryptic post he had written. Oxy/ruru view that as me willing to keep Drixx at L-1 to pressure him to post within 24 hours. I unvote cuz I don't believe in lynching someone who isn't here to respond to pressure. We rehash what all of us were thinking at the time at great length (I thought they wanted to lynch drixx if he hadn't posted in 24 hours; oxy/ruru were apparently voting him to pressure him to post and if he hadn't posted in 24 hours they would have ended the experiment). I very much dislike how the drixx wagon formed. Ofrzh bleeds town throughout all of this. We spent a lot of time rehashing the drixx wagon, and then turn our attention to the lurkers and I honestly don't know how this game is 35 pages long at this point.

My process for replacing in:

- "lol ethos what a guy, i misread him that one time"
- reading over his ISO, there are a couple posts of incredible nuance that seem way outside his scumrange. that said i misread him so let's check that
- confirmed, when he's scum he just sounds like an idiot and wildly scumreads everyone. there's no nuance. jester nightless indicated that his town self, while often wrong (very often wrong), comes up with a lot of complicated reads
- i trust NSG and skitter30 the most to read this guy out of the playerlist, will double check my read by their ISO
- wow NSG is scumreading him but is either not explaining or has shit reasons, got it
- skitter30 doesn't really look like she's scumreading him, good
- no wagon on me, if NSG is town she'll work with me, *replace in*

thank you for the biased summary

so uh
oxy is town
stop trying to activity tell NSG, it doesn't work (although it's cathartic to policy lynch lurkers i admit)
NSG has said shit way outside her scumrange, idk if you've ever played with her as scum but if you did you'd know that
link me posts that indicate drixx-scum to you and i'll tell you my read on him
why are you not scumreading scioness from your POV

[Mathdino]

- what makes you say you can't read me

- NSG active lurking is not scum indicative unless she's on death row (in which case it's heavily scum indicative)

- while i respect you i'm not going to just sheep your read; your slot is null to me. link me the posts that you think i should be reading from them and i'll take a look. will take a look at oxy's posts there. LAMIST is not as good a scumtell as people think though; it's just a reason to not townread someone

- and yeah gimme the scioness posts. i spectated a really good scumgame of hers so

[Mathdino]

I fucking cracked up at oxys posts that page so thanks for that one

Yeah the guy's town sorry

[Mathdino]

okay then prove me wrong about this vote

VOTE: ofrhz

also has drixx claimed already

[Mathdino]

just making sure

if you had already claimed then lynching you becomes ideal

@scioness: you seem to assume i've actually read your ISO, when i'm really just PoE voting here trying to get a lynch that isn't shit

all of the wagons are shit

[Mathdino]

You guys are utterly failing to do what I asked

Which is show me don't tell me where your reads are coming from

Who the fuck is scum in a world where oxy and NSG are both town skitter

[Mathdino]

I just read Mathdino's article about the power of sheeping reads, and I'm choosing to sheep his NSG read here since I currently still have a null read on her.

Wow this really appeals to me

Inb4 LAMIST lol

I could get down with the above reads list if I agree with the ruru and ofhrsxy5efgz read

I'm currently in turn sheeping the pintu read

Skitter scum seems consistent yeah

[Mathdino]

i guess i'm not seeing it as strongly but ok

i think the problem this game and why you guys haven't gotten a lynch yet

is a lot of you are falling for the "townread anyone who can consistently output long non-braindead posts"

so the game shifted toward NSG when she went inactive and wasn't outputting those posts, and it's starting to sound like drixx's playstyle was out of touch with the standard for this game

that's not to say the drixx scumreads aren't correct, just that D1 is often a crapshoot and almost all D1 wagons are charisma-based or playstyle-based

what was the original content that skitter posted that was supposedly very townie? i'll take a look at that

[Mathdino]

wax me a spicy narrative about why drixx got run up in the first place and why that wagon dissolved

[Mathdino]

lol so what you're telling me is that you, the person i'm townreading

and ruru and ofrhar;zhsiehsz who apparently everyone else is hardtownreading

were the drivers of the drixx wagon

and skitter30 believed it was thus a sketchy scum motivated wagon?

if i completely buy into your clearly biased narrative

there's at least 1 scum in {skitter, Drixx} by PoE and wagon comp, gg

[Mathdino]

I need either Oxy or Mathdino to ELI5 (literally, fucking 5) why skitter is scum. Sorry if you feel like you're repeating yourself.

my pleasure

i have a good track record of reading NSG, and she's likely town

the posts that everyone thinks are scum-indicative about oxy are literally town-indicative things that scum don't say

i believe process of elimination is the strongest tool for catching scum

my PoE pool is then

{Scioness, skitter30, ruru, ofwheuotahxfzsohtez, Drixx}

i THINK i'm seeing a deeper level of analysis in scioness's game here than in her scumgame and i'm clearly not getting a scioness lynch today even if she's scum anyway

ruru and you are apparently obvtown to my townread. i agree on ruru, somewhat less agree on you.

so keeping in mind that one of these townreads is probably wrong, there's almost certainly scum in {skitter30, Drixx}. if none of these townreads are wrong, the scumteam is literally skitter30/Drixx, which I haven't seen anyone rule out.

Edit: okay well i guess i'm townreading ruru harder than you are now

[Mathdino]

correct you are

i noticed a specific towntell from pintu, and even though it's one that if we were in a game together i might expect him to fake as scum, it happened before i replaced in. perhaps it's bad to use meta the way i do on someone whose meta is developing every game, but i'm trusting it for now and i haven't gotten any bad feelings from what i've read otherwise.

i'm sheeping this, basically

even if NSG is scum, she's DEFINITELY not scum with pintu

so the only way pintu is scum this game is if NSG just sucks at finding towntells for him

[Mathdino]

disclaimer: i obviously have not read any of pintu's posts either except from the first page and since i replaced in

so if anyone has something super scum indicative for him, i'd like to see that worked out

i've played with pintu-scum before and i skimmed a towngame of his once so i might be able to help

[Mathdino]

2. This could be a longshot, but someone brought the fact that ruru didn't said that, with her vote, Drixx was on L-1. Could this be a townslip?? Remember that she's a newbie so maybe she didn't know that was something you should do; if she was scum, her partner would've told her in their chat what L-1 is while talking about strategy or something like that... I know this is stretch, but I've been scumleaning almost all the game and I'm trying to decide if she's my best option to vote along with scioness.

also this is town as fuck

[Mathdino]

eghhh
skitter's posts do look townish goddammit

yeah so i think drixx lynch or no lynch is gonna be optimal here

[Mathdino]

What posts and why for skitter town read

i was searching around the thread and came across this

@Skitter30 I apologize if I used the wrong pronouns. I'll do my best not to let it happen again.

My reads are trending kinda similar to yours, so I'm trying to figure out what's bothering me about them. I guess your confidence this early on is making me a little bit wary. Like confidentally townbinning ruru and orfhz this early is a little weird, and the fact that you don't seem super interested in re-evaluating them is kinda bothering me. It kinda feels to me like you want to check the box of 'finding townreads', and once you've done so, you don't think you need to revisit the read.

Like you seem very eager and try-hard, and like you very much do not want to misstep. I feel like you often say the 'correct' thing, something you think people want to hear, or something that will make you look town. Like the reason you gave for why you want to be a VT.
[snip]
Like I'm overall getting the vibe that you're saying these things to demonstrate you're acting in a pro-town fashion. It kinda feels artificial, like you're making sure to include phrases like this so that everyone sees how much thought you're putting into your reads. It feels like you're telling me that you're forming reads, instead of showing me that you are.

All of this together is making me kinda wary on your slot, but I'm still trying to work out if I think these are eager *newb* tells (ie you're eager to play and want to make sure you're doing it right) or *scum* (ie you're looking for towncred so that you don't get lynched) tells; I haven't come to a firm conclusion either way yet.

I do think I'm going to keep my vote on you for now though cuz this is the best lead I have; although I'm not confident on scum!you, it is no longer an RVS vote as I'm getting more scumvibes from you right now than anyone else.

so clearly skitter is aware that nuance is a standard towntell now, and she might've improved since her last scumgame (i checked, could only find something last september)

this kind of thing is still hard to fake though
and would require skitter to have a pretty decently sized scumrange

[Mathdino]

snip

Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.

wat
are you trying to 1v1 me here
i literally haven't even stated a scumread on you, i'm just gathering townreads and your ISO hasn't towntold
also if we're 1v1ing and are TvTing doesn't that make us both bad at mafia

i'm super obviously not taking you up on this lol

eghhh
skitter's posts do look townish goddammit

yeah so i think drixx lynch or no lynch is gonna be optimal here

A no lynch is so completely not optimal is such an overwhelming majority of situations in the newbie games that you get scum points just for suggesting it as a viable choice for day 1 in this game. If you're half as good at this game as you want us to believe, you should be able to explain far better than I can why a no lynch is terrible and even delineate the very few situations where it would benefit us to no lynch.

cut the aggression, thanks
happy to do your job for you though

Why No Lynch is terrible (from someone known for breaking setups):

• It's low information. The gamestate evolves when town gains information relative to scum. Not lynching anyone reduces town's ability to perform VCA the following day, or analyse the dead townie/scum's reads.
  
• It's mathematically worse for town to be in even numbers. For example, with 1 scum in 4 players, town has a 25% chance of lynching correctly, while 1 less townie (giving 3 players) produces a 33% chance.
  
• This one should be pretty obvious, but you can't lynch scum if you don't lynch at all.

[Mathdino]

1. It's low information. The gamestate evolves when town gains information relative to scum. Not lynching anyone reduces town's ability to perform VCA the following day, or analyse the dead townie/scum's reads.
   
2. It's mathematically worse for town to be in even numbers. For example, with 1 scum in 4 players, town has a 25% chance of lynching correctly, while 1 less townie (giving 3 players) produces a 33% chance.
   
3. This one should be pretty obvious, but you can't lynch scum if you don't lynch at all.

FTFMe

[Mathdino]

okay yeah no lynch is no longer optimal

i too would prefer to lynch skitter30 than to no lynch

[Mathdino]

sigh
VOTE: skitter30
sorry

[Mathdino]

Range

[Mathdino]

We are not lynching skitter. We will lynch skitter if she doesn't get nk by day three.

Couldn't find it in Google - what's exactly a scumrange?

skitter's not going to get nightkilled by day 3 though

[Mathdino]

a better question: why DOES she get nightkilled by D3?

her reads are inaccurate, her walls make the game harder to read through, and she spends the majority of her time not voting or pressuring anyone

why would scum choose to nightkill skitter30

[Mathdino]

because the fact that i'm PoEing myself out of scumreads and the fact that i'm not going to parse this entire thread before the deadline hits means i have 2 options

1. literally run anyone up
2. try to play "optimally"

in this case, skitter is a more optimal lynch than drixx

[Mathdino]

skitter does it look like i care what a good look is

if you wanna scumread me for saying the taboo words "no lynch" it's your funeral

like this is a case where pulling a #teachingmoment might genuinely be anti-town

[Mathdino]

She is the most hard working person here and has been really objective.

You all wanna lynch her because she freaked out and unvoted. And she did that after she saw drixx wagon got to l-1 in 20 minutes.

I don't understand how can you say her reads are inaccurate when you have that bs scum lean on me and you are sheeping NSG.

don't white knight

you can be hardworking and still make the game harder

everyone in this game has such a massive balls to the wallpost ISO that i could easily make that argument about anyone

i'm townreading the majority of the drixx wagon. freaking out and unvoting is basically NAI

and those 2 statements aren't even related

her reads are inaccurate because she's scumleaning NSG which i'm almost positive she's wrong on (and she admitted i'm more likely to be right)

she's apparently at some point scumread oxy, and finds posts that are town indicative to be scum indicative

and i never even stated a scumlean on you, don't give me that

it's actually hilarious how much aggression i've gotten from townreading enough people to create a 3 person PoE pool

[Mathdino]

whatever, drixx, NSG, and probably pintu would all have caught that

skitter30 softclaimed VT by asking to be lynched instead of no lynch. It's pretty fucking definitive unless she's actively trying to WIFOM the nightkill (a possibility she should obviously not acknowledge if that's her goal).

The Few Cases In Which No Lynch Is Optimal:

1. When you're in evens, there's no confirmed town or possibility of confirmed town, and you need to narrow the lynchpool. For example, 1 scum vs 3 VTs? No Lynch.

2. When you have a setup breaking plan and lynching someone doesn't actually help with that.

3. When the setup is such that town can gain information faster than scum can.

This setup (along with most newbie setups) is essentially won by keeping both PRs alive until D2. The game gets hilariously easy by that point if they're both alive. Like, it's hard to lose.

The difference between this setup and Matrix6 is the density of investigative TPRs. 7/9 setups have investigatives. The remaining 2 have Jailkeeper, a pseudo-investigative.

If there's reason to believe scum is likely to kill a VT, then yeah, I think unfortunately No Lynching is beneficial if only to avoid running up PRs and pulling claims and counterclaims. In this setup, it's ironically MORE information for town.

That said, the fact that skitter30 just softclaimed VT (removing her from the nightkill pool) as I was JUST talking about no lynching (smh) means it's outright mechanically dangerous to run anyone else up. Given that I'm not solid on her alignment, it's optimal FMPOV to just lynch the VT and gain information that way.

[Mathdino]

Ruru is more optimal lynch or Oxy or even me imo. People have the most polarizing opinions about us three I believe.

Drixx lynch would be low info lynch I think. That's also no good.

You should re-think what you would learn from me flipping green.

Of course ... you specifically called me a low info lynch and a lynch is only evaluated on how much info it gives if it doesn't flip red. That implies you know I'm town.

Got a slip here I think.

see it's posts like this that make me wanna lynch drixx
scumslips like this just don't happen
a remarkable number of posts in drixx's ISO use tells that don't work, and it's generally outside of his capacity as an IC so it's not just him being a shit IC

ask me if you want elaboration i guess, i'm still working out whether i care enough to actually run drixx up

I mean ... I don't know you really mathdino (unless I do and don't realize it), but you seem remarkably confident that you have things figured out on day one when the only thing a town!you could know with certainty is your own role. I would say irrationally confident even.

So when you make a series of proclamations about reads which results in you saying the folks who were voting me way back when were basically all town and therefore I have some high probability of being scum, and I know I'm not, it should be pretty obvious why I would push back.

But I mean ... it's mafia. The rhetoric gets aggressive. Nobody has gone after anyone on a personal level. Maybe don't go looking to be insulted and you won't feel like people are being super aggressive? It's just a game after all.

see this is awful too
this is literally softly arguing "mathdino could be scum because he's overconfident" while actively admitting that he hasn't done the research to back it up

1. I only replace into townslots when I have the option. I almost replaced into NSG's slot when callit flaked out, but I wasn't scumreading enough people at that point in the game to say "well I guess callit is town by PoE".

2. I'm confident because I already have one thing right -- my slot. That's a good start for me. Plus I'm better at reading newbies than average. I'm obviously not as good at reading more experienced players, which is why I try to determine those alignments by PoE (you, skitter) and shittons of meta (NSG).

3. Again, don't give me that. I essentially said "well I'm townreading the Drixx wagon so by VCA it's likely there's scum in skitter/Drixx assuming Oxy's account is entirely accurate", which lays out all of my assumptions AND admits I haven't read most of these events (

which is why I asked everyone to give me summaries, yet I only got more walls from everyone except Oxy

). You turned that into WELL LETS SEE WHOS A BETTER MAFIA PLAYER, HUH? 1V1 ME LETS SEE WHO FLIPS SCUM. Which is fucking hilarious since I haven't even been here the full game.
I'm not "looking to be offended". You turned this into some kind of fucked up bet without even addressing my priors -- that the only reason you're in my lynchpool is that I'm townreading enough other people.

[Mathdino]

If I get to a point where skitter30 is damnably town, then yeah I'll admit that lynching her would be bad. But she's not getting NK'd before D3, and that's the point I was trying to make. We're taking her to endgame or we're lynching her today IMO.

[Mathdino]

1. I only replace into townslots when I have the option. I almost replaced into NSG's slot when callit flaked out, but I wasn't scumreading enough people at that point in the game to say "well I guess callit is town by PoE".

Dino, I was going to address this the first time you said it, but now that you said it again... Do you have any example (I mean another game) where you said this (that you only replace into townslots) but you actually were scum?

Nope. I said this in:

Aeronaut's Chill Mafia
fferyllt's Newbie 1841
fferyllt's Newbie 1856

I was right all 3 times, and I'm on record in the MD for basically saying "Man I wish I could play more newbie games so I can teach by example and draw more newbies but I really don't wanna roll scum, and idk how to teach as scum".

Note that I say voluntarily. I made a deal with NSG once where we would cross replace into each other's games if necessary, and I had to take a slot in her game that I honestly thought was a scumslot (it lurked literally all game) in 8p MyLo. I wouldn't have replaced into that if I hadn't made that agreement.

[Mathdino]

Going off the previous point, I've played opposite eth0s's alignment 3 times now (I admit I was wrong when he was scum), and I did a metadive of his scumgames and recent towngames to confirm my tells on him. If it helps anyone, I can go over that. It won't really be alignment-indicative for my portion of the slot, because the very fact that I'm here means I strongly believed him to be town.

So in that sense, I suppose Drixx is justified in 1v1ing my slot.

But I'm not flipping myself just to flip off the IC.

tl;dr: The percentage chance I'm town is the percentage chance that I'm right on townreading eth0s after digging into his ISO and his meta.

[Mathdino]

Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.

Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.

Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.

Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.

Do me a favor and tie your ego to me flipping scum please. Just something like "We'll see who is good/bad at mafia when you flip scum" will suffice.

[Mathdino]

[sarcasm]#teachingmoment:
There's a handy feature next to every post number called "ISO" which is short for "isolation", allowing users to view only that user's posts![/sarcasm]

It's not a trust tell because I could always just be fucking wrong. Obviously if I hard-townread a slot, replaced in, and saw it was actually scum, I would have to make the same argument. I don't want to be put in that position because that ruins my ability to say "I only replace into townslots".

I also can't say that if I replace into slots that haven't posted, or if I replace by request or as a favour to the mod.

Basically, I'm always going to be honest about my read on the slot I'm in. At that point it's up to how right my reads are. And when I'm townreading a player as new as ethos after digging into his ISO and meta, I'm almost always right.

That said, I haven't done the same for other players:
- Oxy has no meta, I'm just townreading him straight up (and knowing my own alignment helps get more reads)
- skitter30 meta is something I'm currently working on
- I'm familiar with NSG meta
- You and Scioness I've only seen in one game as scum.
etc

[Mathdino]

@mathdino - I don't want to 1v1 you. I just want you to take a position. You keep making posts where you build a logical progression that

should

end with you pushing me as scum, but you hold back and when I say something you make a point about not having actually said you scum read me. You seem to have a great deal of confidence in your abilities, and if that confidence is warranted, then great. But ... it's easy to go "I'm right all the time" when your positions are essentially "X could be scum or could be town" and you sit on the fence.

i'm wrestling with the incredibly sad possibility that it might actually be mathematically better to just no lynch

plus while i project confidence purposefully

that does not make me confident enough to come into the thread, not having read it, with a day before the deadline, and telling everyone OKAY HERES WHATS UP WE'RE LYNCHING THE IC

my confidence in my abilities is really only when i'm confident, if that makes sense
i'm most confident about my read on NSG and mayyyyyyybe oxy
ruru is getting to that point

everything else is kinda take it or leave it

[Mathdino]

@Scioness: It's a good thing you quoted that so I can try to get a read on it

[Mathdino]

Lynching skitter30 is mechanically correct by far

If you want to risk it in more than one way, lynching Drixx is most likely to hit scum imo, and is probably highest information due to how many players talked about his wagon

[Mathdino]

Oxy pulled it, thanks
Yeah I'm gonna need the explanation of why that's a scumclaim
Granted reading through those quotes without snipped nested quotes makes me figuratively physically ill

I'll see if I get a burst of intuition tomorrow but rn my stance is essentially "Drixx probscum, would lynch skitter30 for claiming VT, wouldn't really give a shit if we ran time out to the deadline and i will not be providing my vote for deadline lynches"

[Mathdino]

(Btw for your meta dive I never flip scum here; I'm like waaaaay out of my scumrange here.)

And fwiw I can confirm that this is accurate

This really sucks but there's a definite bright side to not running up prs

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:
Need time to think about this
May just sheep NSGs decision if she comes back

[Mathdino]

You just made my ability to analyse it based on that null though

No offence because I think you generally have really good reads (see open 711)

But I think you sometimes spew TOO much

What just happened case in point

[Mathdino]

I often just ignore it when my townreads vote for me tbh
It's a good way on this site to not draw more attention
Sometimes townplay has components of scumplay

[Mathdino]

i'll do a metadive on skitter tomorrow and see if i can find something

also if i ever rolled scum with NSG, correct play is to bus her

she's the single player i have the longest track record of reading correctly; misreading her would be almost suicidal

pintu on the other hand is completely dependent on NSG's read on him and that one random post i quoted

[Mathdino]

looks like i'm getting the No Lynch i asked santa claus for on christmas eve

i'm gonna meta-dive skitter to see if she's worth lynching and then i'm gonna do nothing

brb

[Mathdino]

yeah but you're not lynching ruru without a claim

and an ancillary check on ruru's ISO shows that she's offline for the night and will come back in about 11 hours

so GL with that one

(there's also the fact that she spews town and there really isn't anything scum indicative about 626 and 632 which i'm seeing as reasons to vote her)

[Mathdino]

like i said, our two options are:

1. lynch the VT claim

2. No Lynch (mathematically pretty good) and agree to take skitter30 to endgame because it's obviously worse if we're just gonna lynch her tomorrow anyway

[Mathdino]

no we really don't, not if we get to the point of total confidence she's town

i ignored reading her because i had townread other people, but if i end up townreading her more strongly, i'm not gonna be cool with this

i'll let you know when i've locked something

Edit: drixx and skitter30 agreed on that.

i don't believe this setup is robust enough to actually encourage D1 lynching given that every single cell has a power role that can confirm scum

no lynching would become even more optimal if the tracker stepped up and claimed before tonight btw

if you're uncomfortable with that idea i can explain it ofc

[Mathdino]

i've already discussed it at the end of multiple games

see here for my calculations showing that tracker D1 claiming is likely better in order to not die at night

currently, because skitter's claim narrows the killpool, the PRs are slightly more likely to die than standard (assuming we lynch outside of skitter)

[Mathdino]

drixx wagon feels wrong given that i'm not townreading oferhzezhisozhcxz yet

someone go check his activity and see if he's gonna have time to claim

i can set an alarm to lynch skitter tomorrow possibly (if drixx AND skitter claim it's gonna be totally ridiculous to no lynch at that point)

"Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
Under all setups, mafia has a 20% chance of hitting the other power role, which is strictly better.

Now assume VT lynch and tracker doesn't claim and mafia opts to not shoot the tracker for fear of protection:
With cop/tracker, mafia has a 100% chance of hitting a power role.
With JK/tracker, mafia has a 0% chance of hitting a power role AND a kill is stopped.
With doc/tracker, mafia will shoot elsewhere, and thus has a 1/5 chance of hitting the doc, coming out to 20%."

I assume you wanted to say on the first paragraph that the tracker claims and scum doesn't shoot him, and in the second paragraph that he claims and mafia decides to shoot him? Correct me if I'm wrong please

yes that's what i mean my bad

that also leaves out the benefit that we'd know the setup by tomorrow by whether or not tracker lived and/or was roleblocked

[Mathdino]

Ok, but my problem is that in your analysis, you're assuming that the tracker knows that the lynch is a VT. If the tracker believes that the D1 lynch will flip scum, then he becomes an investigative role as eficient as a cop and it would be better for him and for everyone to keep his/her identity hidden. So it would have to be other two scenarios: 1. No lynch and the tracker claims, but we don't know if there's a tracker so it's risky; and 2. Tracker claims on D2 if he's alive.

My other problem with the tracker claim strategy is that scum can do it when there's a roleblocker. You said "by whether or not tracker lived and/or was roleblocked", but there's no setup where a roleblocker and tracker coexists.

then the tracker better be fantastic at appraising their own reads

like, NSG scum (something i could potentially be 90% confident on) would definitely be worth lynching through a PR claim and over no lynching in any scenario

anyone else?

understand that the vast majority of D1 lynches flip town. I'M not confident enough in any of my reads to put any lynches down to even 50%.

also if scum fakeclaim tracker, they basically get lynched in the next 2 days anyway when massclaim hits, so that would be suicidal and strictly worse for scum

[Mathdino]

i'm still working on skitter30 meta

i really REALLY think she's town

at this point i'm basically waffling on whether i'm willing to bet the game on it (because you're lynching her over my dead body if she survives today)

[Mathdino]

could either of you professors please run the numbers on the expected value of wagoning sajj right now (in other words, what are your thoughts on sajj last night/today)

i'm not hard townreading scioness

if we don't lynch skitter30 and if i don't pick up a scumread on anyone (i might just be willing to policy lynch drixx to get our flip and leave it at that)

i'm going to be very strongly arguing for a no lynch

which is gonna be pretty easy since the votecount is a shotgun spread lol

[Mathdino]

p.edit if I have to vote skitter I will, I hope drixx will get back and claim vt though

this would be pretty anti-town

also scum drixx is literally just gonna claim a power role and force the lynch off himself you know

[Mathdino]

okay i'm willing to fucking lose to scum skitter30

i finished my metadive and unfortunately her scumgames onsite are horribly outdated

nuance and general signs of intelligence are not towntells for her, unfortunately

THAT SAID i think she's towntold in this game in numerous ways that i'd have serious trouble seeing out of her scumgames without, for example, being coached by RC (a thing that happened once in what seems to be her best scumgame lol)

gimme a bit to do a onceover on skitter and to decide on drixx

but yeah we no lynch before we lynch skitter

i know you guys are going with the general "Lynch is always better than No Lynch on D1" and trust me, that sentiment will serve you will in basically any setup that's not badly designed, and i'm genuinely glad your collective gut tends toward hating on me for even speaking the words No Lynch

however, this is not an airtight setup, and the high likelihood of power roles that can basically solve the game for us (which was put in place essentially as a crutch because towns have been getting awful on MS lately, something i don't feel is true of this town)

means that No Lynch is surprisingly viable

i'd post my credentials or whatever when it comes to setup spec but it's basically "i'm known onsite for breaking games all the time" and i don't wanna shit all over newbie games with my ego that much more than that

so take it from me? i guess?

[Mathdino]

one thing i will say from doing a thread search is that it's interesting how nobody seems to have mentioned my slot beforehand. i really don't know what it means yet, if anything. if i had to guess i'd say it might cast the SEs/IC in a more suspicious light, but that's just speculation.

Your slot is a newbie-slot that site-flaked before they even confirmed their alignment. Not really sure what you're expecting people to read into that?

i didn't expect people to "read into it", it's just the fact that my slot seemed to have just been ignored, and it was 4 whole days before it was replaced. it's just strange to me – i would have expected at least a few more mentions than i've found. my baseless theory is that the more experienced players who perhaps should have called for it to be replaced or prodded earlier didn't because an empty slot benefits them as scum, but like i said – just speculation.

this never comes from northscumgal btw

it actually further proves townsidegal

when scumbuddies go completely the fuck inactive, scum tends to request prods more often on those slots

town-NSG+town-skitter+town-mathdino

i find it unlikely that we'll NEED to lynch

but yeah if we're lynching we're policy lynching drixx

[Mathdino]

i don't think the thing people are scumreading scioness for is actually scum-indicative. her logic makes sense, and i think as scum it just benefits her more to let it go to no lynch than to make a scummy-looking move in voting someone she was townreading before.

NSG PLEASE HELP ME FIGURE OUT WHAT THE RIGHT COURSE OF ACTION HERE IS THANK YOU

i don't need you to completely catch up but i need to know i'm not on an idiotic track right now

- my read on skitter: are we comfortable betting the game on town-skitter? i didn't play with her in 711 (i honestly didn't read most of her posts because walls) so all i have is cold meta

- my read on oxy: please point out to me why it's bad if it's bad

- same thing with read on ruru i guess

- is lynching drixx the right move here? assume my POV for a second and hold that No Lynching is not mechanically awful

[Mathdino]

is your townread on skitter truly enough that you'd bring her to endgame? that's the keystone question.

i just

don't see myself scumreading her tomorrow or the day after except on rock solid PoE if she continues playing like this

so beyond "it's mechanically awful to lynch her later on if not today"

i literally don't see myself being willing to lynch her after today if i'm not even willing to make the mechanically correct call

that's why i'm asking you to evaluate that read

[Mathdino]

- my read on oxy: please point out to me why it's bad if it's bad

- same thing with read on ruru i guess

what are these reads?

hardtown on both

here's an example

I just read Mathdino's article about the power of sheeping reads, and I'm choosing to sheep his NSG read here since I currently still have a null read on her.

Wow this really appeals to me

Inb4 LAMIST lol

I could get down with the above reads list if I agree with the ruru and ofhrsxy5efgz read

I'm currently in turn sheeping the pintu read

Skitter scum seems consistent yeah

Oxy has been beaten up about every goddamn post he makes by one of the strongest players in this game (if not THE strongest if we take into account scum skill) on one tell: LAMIST.

That every post he makes seems designed to pull townreads. And I largely agree with this; he's fucking awkward at times. Reminds me of my early games.

Telling me right after I replace in "Oh I read your article on townplay btw! I thought it was good so I'm going to sheep you!" is one of the most hilariously appealing things I've ever been told ingame. Ignoring WIFOM, there's the obvious case that it's town because why the fuck would he go way out of his way to read my townplay article (which is linked as referring to townplay in my sig) as scum? Wouldn't he rather read the scumplay articles I've been editing on the wiki?

But beyond that; how the fuck does scum-him not realise that half the game thinks he's the most LAMISTy fuck they've ever played with, and start to tone that shit down? How does his scumbuddy not tell him to tone it down a bit?

I literally read through skitter's ISO seeing things like "I'm glad you responded but you STILL FEEL LAMISTY WTF".

Oxy is CLEARLY a good player. Does scum-him decide to go overboard here?

[Mathdino]

have you done the thing yet where SEs and ICs ask you about your mafia experience and you tell us all about that other forum that you're on

cuz this is obviously not the first time you've played mafia and my profile of what is and isn't in your scumrange is basically going off of a gut-based psychoanalysis

[Mathdino]

okay i finally got around to reading apparently important events such as:

1. The skitter30 vs Oxy shitshow.

I think this is TvT. Both of these scumreads on each other seem more based around paranoia of each other being ZOMGAmazing at scum than actual scum-indicative thought processes. skitter's unvote off Drixx was fine, and is exactly what I'd expect from town-skitter. Unless Drixx is literally her scumpartner, skitter was not in a place to be blamed for Drixx getting lynched.

In fact, I would argue that BECAUSE skitter30 is good at scum, that unvote is townish. She must know she's the endgame scum in this playerlist, and Drixx lynch would be 100% blamed on the hammerer, ruru's naked vote, and Oxy's "asking for the hammer to happen". If she's scum, she passed up a great opportunity to get a lynch through on the IC. I don't think an RC-coached scum does something like that, then putting herself in this hilarious position of "you should lynch me instead of No Lynch".

So start fucking working together thanks.

2. The Scioness vs Oxy shitshow.

In digging around (still not fully reading) Scion's and Oxy's ISOs, I actually kinda like Oxy's case on her and really fucking hate Scion's case on Oxy.

idk not much more to say
but i do think scioness would've been the correct lynch if it wasn't like a few hours to deadline

3. The Drixx wagon

Already talked about skitter's unvote. Oxy's behaviour roughly makes sense. I think if that wagon is scum motivated, it's pretty clear the scumteam is in {ofhraezfrheioshz, ruru, Scioness} (matching my PoE), with one sketchy-ass vote on the wagon, and one scum offwagon.

[Mathdino]

Honestly, I just don't see why explicitly stating pro town actions that you plan on taking, and then following through on those actions is lame.

you do know the difference between "lame" and LAMIST right

like i know you know the difference

[Mathdino]

holy balls this is your first forum mafia game?

ok

To those who are scumreading Oxy

:

Oxy is either town or fucking lying and playing the "this is totally my first game" card. Which, granted, I've seen scum do in newbies (skitter30 did it, and I lynched scum doing it).

You're all good players and all
but you're also all bad for scumreading this shit.
LAMIST is NOT a scumtell for newbies. It's something newbtown do and then get conditioned not to do because people get annoyed at them for it and mislynch them.

Edit: it's not meant to sound like anything

[Mathdino]

i'm gonna be upset if you don't stick around on this site tbh regardless of alignment

if you're up for a second game with a pretty good yet also almost 100% newbie playerlist, i'm running an Open game (signup's in my sig)

regardless, couple things (because if you're scum you're definitely lying)

1. You roll scum in your first forum mafia game, and not with the IC. What's your scum strategy? Scum in first game is rough.

2. What articles have you read on scumplay?

[Mathdino]

^this is at Oxy

[Mathdino]

Already talked about skitter's unvote. Oxy's behaviour roughly makes sense. I think if that wagon is scum motivated, it's pretty clear the scumteam is in {ofhraezfrheioshz, ruru, Scioness} (matching my PoE), with one sketchy-ass vote on the wagon, and one scum offwagon.

so i think you've made a mistake here unless you really think ruru + scioness is a possible scumteam. because from my pov, this is what you're suggesting.

o

ne

f

ire

r

ed

h

eadless

z

ombie

i haven't read enough of ruru and scioness to have an opinion on that

talk to me about what i'm wrong about though

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Drixx

drixx never gets nightkilled, i'm good with this

i just don't see anything to townread in his ISO

[Mathdino]

2. Uh, I probably read whatever the basic one was a few years back when I first found the wiki here. I heard a mathdino wrote something there recently, and I plan on checking it out before my first scum game.

where did you hear this idea?

[Mathdino]

WAIT FUCKING LOL OXY JUST TOWNSLIPPED

okay game on lock, pending my confidence in my NSG read

Edit: i never wrote an article on scumplay, that was me embellishing
i just edited categories into them
there's no universe in which oxy-scum doesn't immediately go check that shit out guys

oxy stronger townread than both skitter and NSG

[Mathdino]

i'll take Things That Can Only Happen In Your First Game for 400

it's kinda bullshit sometimes yeah but i'm a super townslip reliant player anyway

okay so we really need to talk about where we're moving then after this

i probably agree with your read on scioness but who the fuck is the buddy here (assuming drixx flips town)

is scion/ruru definitely a bad combo? scion/ofrhreiohz? ofhweeriohzombie/ruru?

[Mathdino]

never become dunnstral

WHO THE FUCK IS THE SCUMTEAM THEN THO

[Mathdino]

Alright.

We lynch Drixx, and if he flips scum, we take another look at skitter, yeah?

skitter is probably going to eat Neapolitan if there is one, which is good.

Cops/Trackers/Jailkeeps should avoid Oxy who, due to me locktowning him, is unfortunately a likely nightkill (Doctors take note).

I really need more on your Scioness read.

[Mathdino]

I don't have it in me to try and figure out associations right now. It's been a really long day. I gave my thoughts in a spoiler earlier, but I've never felt very confident trying to figure that stuff out. I get lost in wifom rabbit holes

okay i'll just read your ISO sheep you if you get NK'd in that case

[Mathdino]

please don't

also

Neapolitan NEEDS to check skitter30 if there is one

we can take silence followed by a neapolitan flip to be immediate proof that skitter is town

so we good lynching drixx?

[Mathdino]

ruru/drixx makes a certain amount of sense in a weird way but I don't know how to articulate it exactly.

holy shit this is exactly what i was thinking

ruru naked votes drixx specifically to freak out the people onwagon

and oxy's been hard TRing ruru all day so oxy bears most of the burden

[Mathdino]

gimme just a second i
i need to get my story straight

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

priorVCNumber=0
url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=75475
playerList=westen,Oxy,callitwhatyouwant,ruru,Scioness Sajj,ofrhz,eth0s,skitter30,Drixx
replacementList=westen:pinturicchio,callitwhatyouwant:northsidegal{NSG},eth0s:Mathdino
moderatorNames=Assemblerotws
dayStartNumbers=0
cleanDay=true
deadline=2018-04-05 09:00:00 -5.00
deadList=
voteOverrides=

Code: Select all

[spoiler=Day 1][/spoiler]

[Mathdino]

my friends are in the bathroom gettin
higher than the empire state

Votecount 1.1

Drixx(4)

~ skitter30(99), ofrhz(108), Mathdino(127), Oxy(332)

skitter30(2)

~ ruru(69), pinturicchio(87)

Oxy(2)

~ Drixx(48), northsidegal(46)

ruru(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(184)


Not Voting (0):

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-05 09:00:00)

[Mathdino]

my lover she is waiting for me
just across the bar

Oxy(2) ~

Drixx(48)

, northsidegal(46)

[Mathdino]

my seat's been taken by some sunglasses
askin bout a scar, and

WAGONS(Sort By: Alphabetical Data Type: Simple LSort: On)

Note from vote counter. These votes include any vote on or off that impacted said wagon.

Spoiler: Day 1

Drixx (1)

~

ofrhz

376

Drixx (1)

~

ruru

399(675)

Drixx (1)

~

skitter30

982

Mathdino (1)

~

ruru

5

Mathdino (1)

~

Oxy

90

northsidegal (1)

~

ruru

727

ofrhz (1)

~

Oxy

3

ofrhz (1)

~

ruru

15

ofrhz (1)

~

Mathdino

870

Oxy (1)

~

skitter30

4

Oxy (1)

~

pinturicchio

240(297)

Oxy (1)

~

Scioness Sajj

363

Oxy (1)

~

Mathdino

553

pinturicchio (1)

~

Mathdino

34

pinturicchio (1)

~

Oxy

560

ruru (1)

~

Scioness Sajj

9

ruru (1)

~

ofrhz

23(44)

ruru (1)

~

skitter30

297(368)

Scioness Sajj (1)

~

Oxy

44

Scioness Sajj (1)

~

Mathdino

210(326)

Scioness Sajj (1)

~

pinturicchio

492(553)

skitter30 (1)

~

pinturicchio

845

Drixx (2)

~

ofrhz, skitter30

395

Drixx (2)

~

ofrhz, ruru

399(560)

Mathdino (2)

~

ruru, Oxy

344

northsidegal (2)

~

ruru, skitter30

759

northsidegal (2)

~

ruru, Oxy

763(842)

Oxy (2)

~

skitter30, pinturicchio

240

Oxy (2)

~

Mathdino, Drixx

676

Oxy (2)

~

Drixx, northsidegal

746(856)

ruru (2)

~

Scioness Sajj, Oxy

10

ruru (2)

~

Oxy, ofrhz

23(25)

ruru (2)

~

ofrhz, Scioness Sajj

250

ruru (2)

~

ofrhz, skitter30

297(306)

Scioness Sajj (2)

~

Oxy, Mathdino

210

Scioness Sajj (2)

~

Mathdino, pinturicchio

492

skitter30 (2)

~

pinturicchio, Oxy

880

skitter30 (2)

~

Oxy, ruru

1014(1026)

skitter30 (2)

~

ruru, pinturicchio

1030(1039)

Drixx (3)

~

ofrhz, skitter30, Oxy

396

Drixx (3)

~

ofrhz, Oxy, ruru

399(402)

Drixx (3)

~

skitter30, ofrhz, Mathdino

1093

northsidegal (3)

~

ruru, skitter30, Oxy

763

Oxy (3)

~

Mathdino, Drixx, northsidegal

746

ruru (3)

~

Scioness Sajj, Oxy, ofrhz

23

ruru (3)

~

ofrhz, Scioness Sajj, skitter30

297

ruru (3)

~

Scioness Sajj, ofrhz, pinturicchio

1026

skitter30 (3)

~

pinturicchio, Oxy, Mathdino

922

skitter30 (3)

~

pinturicchio, Oxy, ruru

1014

Drixx (4)

~

ofrhz, skitter30, Oxy, ruru

399

Drixx (4)

~

skitter30, ofrhz, Mathdino, Oxy

1118

[Mathdino]

i know i gave it to you months ago

my friends are in the bathroom gettin
higher than the empire state

Votecount 1.1

Drixx(4)

~ skitter30(99), ofrhz(108), Mathdino(127), Oxy(332)

skitter30(2)

~ ruru(69), pinturicchio(87)

Oxy(2)

~ Drixx(48), northsidegal(46)

ruru(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(184)


Not Voting (0):

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-05 09:00:00)

my lover she is waiting for me
just across the bar

Oxy(2) ~

Drixx(48)

, northsidegal(46)

my seat's been taken by some sunglasses
askin bout a scar, and

WAGONS(Sort By: Alphabetical Data Type: Simple LSort: On)

Note from vote counter. These votes include any vote on or off that impacted said wagon.

Spoiler: Day 1

Drixx (1)

~

ofrhz

376

Drixx (1)

~

ruru

399(675)

Drixx (1)

~

skitter30

982

Mathdino (1)

~

ruru

5

Mathdino (1)

~

Oxy

90

northsidegal (1)

~

ruru

727

ofrhz (1)

~

Oxy

3

ofrhz (1)

~

ruru

15

ofrhz (1)

~

Mathdino

870

Oxy (1)

~

skitter30

4

Oxy (1)

~

pinturicchio

240(297)

Oxy (1)

~

Scioness Sajj

363

Oxy (1)

~

Mathdino

553

pinturicchio (1)

~

Mathdino

34

pinturicchio (1)

~

Oxy

560

ruru (1)

~

Scioness Sajj

9

ruru (1)

~

ofrhz

23(44)

ruru (1)

~

skitter30

297(368)

Scioness Sajj (1)

~

Oxy

44

Scioness Sajj (1)

~

Mathdino

210(326)

Scioness Sajj (1)

~

pinturicchio

492(553)

skitter30 (1)

~

pinturicchio

845

Drixx (2)

~

ofrhz, skitter30

395

Drixx (2)

~

ofrhz, ruru

399(560)

Mathdino (2)

~

ruru, Oxy

344

northsidegal (2)

~

ruru, skitter30

759

northsidegal (2)

~

ruru, Oxy

763(842)

Oxy (2)

~

skitter30, pinturicchio

240

Oxy (2)

~

Mathdino, Drixx

676

Oxy (2)

~

Drixx, northsidegal

746(856)

ruru (2)

~

Scioness Sajj, Oxy

10

ruru (2)

~

Oxy, ofrhz

23(25)

ruru (2)

~

ofrhz, Scioness Sajj

250

ruru (2)

~

ofrhz, skitter30

297(306)

Scioness Sajj (2)

~

Oxy, Mathdino

210

Scioness Sajj (2)

~

Mathdino, pinturicchio

492

skitter30 (2)

~

pinturicchio, Oxy

880

skitter30 (2)

~

Oxy, ruru

1014(1026)

skitter30 (2)

~

ruru, pinturicchio

1030(1039)

Drixx (3)

~

ofrhz, skitter30, Oxy

396

Drixx (3)

~

ofrhz, Oxy, ruru

399(402)

Drixx (3)

~

skitter30, ofrhz, Mathdino

1093

northsidegal (3)

~

ruru, skitter30, Oxy

763

Oxy (3)

~

Mathdino, Drixx, northsidegal

746

ruru (3)

~

Scioness Sajj, Oxy, ofrhz

23

ruru (3)

~

ofrhz, Scioness Sajj, skitter30

297

ruru (3)

~

Scioness Sajj, ofrhz, pinturicchio

1026

skitter30 (3)

~

pinturicchio, Oxy, Mathdino

922

skitter30 (3)

~

pinturicchio, Oxy, ruru

1014

Drixx (4)

~

ofrhz, skitter30, Oxy, ruru

399

Drixx (4)

~

skitter30, ofrhz, Mathdino, Oxy

1118

i know you're tryin to forget

Drixx:

Oxy

but between the drinks and subtle things

eth0s/Mathdino:

westen, Scioness, Oxy, Scioness, ofrhz, skitter30, Drixx

[Mathdino]

the holes in my apologies

northsidegal

: Oxy

you know i'm tryin hard to take it back

ofhrz

: ruru, Drixx, ruru, ruru, Drixx

so if by tonight

Oxy

: ofhrz, ruru, Scioness, eth0s, Scioness, eth0s, Drixx, pinturrichio, northsidegal, skitter30, Drixx, skitter30, Drixx

the bar closes

pinturrichio

: Oxy, Scioness, skitter30, ruru, skitter30

and you feel like fallin down

ruru

: eth0s, ofhrz, eth0s, Drixx, northsidegal, skitter30

[Mathdino]

i'll carry

Scioness

: ruru, ruru, Oxy, ruru

you home

skitter30

: Oxy, ruru, Drixx, northsidegal, Drixx

tonight.

[Mathdino]

Oxy, if scum, can only really be scum with ofhrz. (unless the entire Oxy/skitter debacle was faked, which is ludicrous)

skitter30, if scum, can only be scum with Scioness, Drixx, and ofhrz.

Drixx, if scum, can only be scum with ruru, pintu, Scioness and skitter30.

Scioness, if scum, can only be scum with Drixx, NSG, ofhrz, pintu, and skitter30.

pintu, if scum, can only be scum with Drixx, Scioness, NSG, ofhrz.

current scumteams I'm willing to consider:
skitter30/Scioness
skitter30/Drixx
skitter30/ofhrz
Drixx/ruru
Drixx/pintu
Drixx/Scioness
Scioness/NSG
Scioness/ofhrz
Scioness/pintu
NSG/ofhrz
NSG/pintu
ofhrz/pintu
ofhrz/ruru (bussing still possible)

[Mathdino]

Also I'm very confused why he won't claim? Scum!him should always claim a PR here I think?

nope

he softclaimed VT just like you did earlier

he's gearing up for a "lol fuck you guys i won't claim" situation to push us onto you IMO

i'm at the point where i'd lynch him through a PR claim

[Mathdino]

Drixx flips scum, lynch
Scioness --> ruru --> pintu
and win.

Drixx flips town, probably lynch
Scioness --> ofhrz --> ruru (on Sci townflip) --> whoever of NSG/skitter30 is still alive (on Sci scumflip)

[Mathdino]

um

good?

we kinda need it

[Mathdino]

might as well wait up to the deadline assuming someone's going to be online tbh

drixx might have parting thoughts

town-drixx should self-hammer if VT

[Mathdino]

can i post yet

[Mathdino]

all of you are awesome and i complained about this game a lot as a gimmick but i thought every player in this game was hilariously good, just in a old school 2014-MS kind of way

i would do IC style writeups but i literally did not read a few of your ISOs so that would probably not be entirely holistic

if you wanna play another game (outside of the newbie queue that is), Pick Your Poison is in signups in the open queue

[Mathdino]

i see that i seriously fucked up thinking pintu was legitimately trying to steer the end-of-day onto ruru

also lol NSG i'm not trusting your hard townreads again
i still have no idea what towntell you thought pintu dropped

[Mathdino]

another example of how my townreads >>> my scumreads actually

Oxy did really well just in producing enough sheer content to be townread. The townread on ofhrz was solid, it was something I wasn't seeing but ended up right in the end. The scumtunnels were... less than ideal .

skitter, you literally called out Oxy for being a PR on day 1 and then continued tunneling him D2 . I didn't wanna make it too obvious that a huge part of my townread was his PR softclaim, but I do think he townslipped. You also did well in producing enough content that would just be impossible for scum-skitter-without-RC to produce (I will admit your game with RC really threw me off in evaluating your scumrange.
I'm really surprised we haven't played together on individual accounts outside of this game before. Should remedy that.
And yeah, there were a few times where you spewed a little TOO much. But that did end up being a towntell down the line.

NSG please pay more attention to the game . You were practically an innocent child by my read alone. The world was your oyster!

Scioness, sorry for the whole "she played a good scumgame that one time therefore she is omnipotent". That happens a lot to people, haha. I'm not entirely sure why you checked NSG since, going by your D2 logic, my read was good enough there anyway, but I can also see you making up that logic to justify your inno result.

I think Scioness, Oxy, and skitter got a liiiittle too caught up in 1v1s without realising how the dynamic might
- hurt town's ability to read into things
- allow scum to hide on the sidelines (as they did this game)
So always be willing to reevaluate! I get flak sometimes for changing my mind all the time but sometimes there's that one post that scum just CAN'T make, and you figure out what kinds of posts those are as you go on.
Oxy made a couple of those posts. skitter made it with asking to be lynched. Scioness's AtE was, while definitely blargh AtE, outside of her scumrange.

[Mathdino]

dino, at one point you said that you had a hard town read on ruru

was that true or just a part of your play at that time

That was me being lazy, honestly. I was having trouble getting through the ISOs and I was to some extent sheeping you I think.

The only reads I was able to get locks on were my own slot, yours (I ISO'd you right after replacing in), NSG's (I thought she was playing her disengaged scumgame but I recalibrated and locked her), and skitter's (that was near the end of D1). If it doesn't look like I'm
- putting in a lot of effort
- having incredible amounts of confidence
the read is probably me going off of incomplete information .

There are a lot of times where I come up with a hard read and never change it out of laziness and then go back and actually read their ISO and am like "hmmmm wait a second".

I was a good kill I think. Not for my scumreads (my scumreads were awful, I was cheering for a Scioness/ofhrz lynch in the dead thread the whole time), but because I would've defused the skitter/Oxy 1v1 and stonewalled both lynches. I probably would've gone after Scioness, gotten the cop claim, then gone after ofhrz, and THEN dug into pintu/ruru the following day.

Massclaim the day before LyLo is generally good, was surprised you guys didn't do that sooner.

[Mathdino]

pintu, good job fooling NSG. I did not read your ISO at all because of that

ruru, you played the newbscum-looking-like-newbtown card super well. I'm also excited to see what you look like as town.

ofhrz, I did not read your ISO, sorry

[Mathdino]

Mechanics!

Order of claims almost always goes from most scummy to least scummy. If I ordered the claims, I'd have done
Scioness --> ofhrz --> pintu --> ruru --> skitter --> NSG --> Oxy
Scioness would've cleared NSG immediately, dropping NSG to the back. Then it would be up to pintu/ruru whether to open themselves up to counterclaim (as it seems they would've) or just claim VT, allowing Sci/Oxy to be totally confirmed.

[Mathdino]

tbh NSG should lowkey have been the de facto IC after drixx and i both died

[Mathdino]

Here's the Open queue if you guys wanna /in 721 with me btw!

Some people play more newbie games, some people jump right into the normal/open queues. I consider the theme queues a bit heavy and unpredictable design-wise for a second or third game; it's hard to tell what setups will be like at first without getting a feel for the site.

[Mathdino]

She pretty much was, wasn't she?

in multiple ways lol
inexperienced challenge + innocent child

skitter also could've taken that role but she was heavily suspect after yesterday i guess

i also don't know how well skitter/NSG are versed in setup spec and mechanics

[Mathdino]

The main reason I actually legitimately suspected you was the Oxy case/push.

Cases serve two purposes in my experience (as town):
1. Convince others of your way of thinking
2. Organise the evidence and your thoughts better so you can lead yourself to a good conclusion

Sometimes I'll realise my read on someone and make a case to say "okay mofos we're lynching here" or "what the fuck why are you scumreading [x]".
Sometimes I'll sit down and say "I have no read on [x], let's pull a bunch of quotes and do some meta and see where it leads me".

As a general statement (not directed at Scioness solely), I think a lot of cases this game were anti-town because they served more of a purpose to convince yourselves that you were right, rather than convincing others, or coming at ISOs with an open mind.

It doesn't help you, your target, or the audience to tell someone "here's an itemised list of 30 pages of disagreements and why you're scum". If they're town, they'll know you're wrong and you have no common ground. And if they're scum, they're gonna try to rip the case apart anyway.

But cases DO help scum because it can give the impression that you're producing a lot of content, and you have strong opinions, and you're actually pushing your "scumreads". There are a few players on this site known for calling cases scummy.

So I guess what I'm saying is I thought your cases benefited scum-you more than it benefited town-you. That doesn't justify my incorrect read, but it is where it came from.

[Mathdino]

@Dino, were you reading the game after dying? What do you think about my scumgame here compared to Tit for Tat?

I actually didn't notice you after I died, which is probably a good thing all things considered. Most of what I remember reading was Oxy vs skitter vs Scioness

Also figured out at a certain point that there was something wrong with the gamesolve. I read the game mostly from Oxy's perspective given how obvtown he was (and I honestly figured scum roleblocked him since they killed me and he was obv PR). Started suspecting skitter a bit, shut that down. With {Oxy, skitter, NSG} as conftown FMPOV I was really just cheerleading my lynch order (lol wrong) and questioning NSG's pintu towntell because I knew PoE would lead back there at a certain point.

[Mathdino]

Every newbie game I've played has essentially been solved by PoE. Shows a lot, I think, since I've never played a newbie game against an outright bad scumteam. It's just one of those things scum can't overcome.

skitterrrrr join open 721

[Mathdino]

You guys shouldn't worry about overproducing content as long as it's good content!

There were tons of good stuff I found reading through the game, in everyone's ISOs. It just got drowned out by the 1v1s and back-and-forth overexplanations.

Personally, I don't think a good case or a good defence needs to be COMPLETE. One of my best scumgames involved me basically mislynching someone for trying to come up with a "Here's why every one of Mathdino's posts scream scum".

But when you try to go THAT all-encompassing, you WILL fuck up. No one is scum by every post, and no one is town by every post. And no one is good enough to make a totally airtight case! So I crucified an otherwise fantastic player by saying "Hah, see, she messed up points #3 and #6, therefore she's scum!"

You find the good points and you stick to them. And you broaden your good points to include more good points and suddenly you have an entire theory of the game. But you don't have to respond to or comment on every post, because while it may feel more complete, it often won't help with the ultimate goal -- finding town and catching scum.

You had a lot of good points, Scioness. I agree that when you felt backed into a corner you overcompensated a bit. You didn't need to! Your English/debating skills are actually really good and I found myself following a lot of your posts until you accidentally ran into weaker points.

[Mathdino]

I'm fairly sure that exchange was what fooled her, lol. Well done. You deserve more scum wins than you've gotten after
1. town literally won a 50/50 call
2. town won because of PoE and hilarious claims

I was cracking up when I woke up and read through the 4th claim.

[Mathdino]

oh btw i know the "don't take my mean things personal" is kind of a tired cliche

but i really would hope people don't take it personal when i criticise people ingame

things like "this case is garbage" or "your reads are all wrong and anti-town" or "omfg i'm not reading the game thanks to these trash walls"

ultimately it is a game and it's not really something i'd say outside of the context of a social game

i say those things not to breed toxicity (although i apologise if it has that side effect) but to project confidence/power over the game for my slot

to get what i want, basically. and i think the fact that most of that is an act goes pretty unrecognised in forum mafia.

mafia is emotionally rough and super harsh critique of people's play (not of them as a person but of their play) is entirely within the rules and the context of the game

so if you're not into that, i totally get choosing not to play

but if you can recognise that basically everyone in mafia is putting on an act (even town), the game can get a lot more fun

so i hope everyone here sticks around!

[Mathdino]

Hahaha.

No harm in asking in the queue! Standard on this site is usually 2 weeks but mods pretty much get to choose. I personally decrease deadlines as people die.

Fair warning that it's 13p so 4 more players to keep track of. Can be more fun (as games will last about 2 game days longer than 9p games do) but it can also be overwhelming for some people.

[Mathdino]

haha, up to them

13p games are definitely intimidating

if you wanna follow the game you should be able to PM the mod and ask to spectate

mods usually throw spectators in with the dead PT

[Mathdino]

rip NSG, just went V/LA

maybe she'll replace in

[Mathdino]

I think a good benchmark for being town is worrying more about being wrong/making bad pushes than worrying about how people perceive you. I don't think anyone really crossed the line this game in terms of being too harsh/personal/hard on anyone, but almost everyone was aggressively wrong at some point

That's hard to answer. You could ask the same thing for any subjects IRL.
- How do you know the points you're making in an essay are good or weak?
- How do you know if you're solving a math problem correctly?
- How do you know if a scientific theory has merit or is weak?
same goes for work situations, speeches, social situations, etc

You look back at what worked and what didn't, identify your strengths and your weaknesses, and adjust your play based on that. You look at examples from other people that WERE right/good (and why they were right/good) and pull some of their strategies in. And you keep an open mind so you're able to make those evaluations in the middle of games, rather than only making them after or between games.

[Mathdino]

your avatar made me townread you in whemestar's game

also the deadlines are gonna be 10 days, which is pretty interesting

i personally think slightly shorter deadlines are pro-town

[Mathdino]

i do not remember

it's weird how subtle things can change subconscious reads tho haha

[Mathdino]

do you have pictures?

i've always wondered what impact my avatar would have on people

i would never change it but i suspect that the hat creates the touch of absurdity in order to not treat everything i say as a dinosaur trying to eat them

[Mathdino]

that you go to vassar college?

[Mathdino]

#ReleaseThePTs

happy page 100 friendos

also scioness i think i townread the first two
already knew you were scum by the third