Newbie 1859 (Game Over)

[ruru]

VOTE: eth0s

Has a recent Last visited date and hasn't posted yet.

[ruru]

@ruru does it matter that his last visited date is more than 2 hours before this game began?

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10037998]Is your vote serious?[/quote]

I want to hear from him and I think we have a better chance of that than of hearing from people who have been AFK for a longer time.

[ruru]

Oh what my last post didn’t take

I don’t think lurking is a scum tell and the game just opened so wanting to hear from people who’ve been “afk for a long time”? That’s just grasping at straws

1. How is lurking not a scum tell?

VOTE: ofrhz

2. If I wanted to hear from people who've been "afk for a long time", I wouldn't vote on him. I voted on him because he recently logged in, but hasn't posted, and if he is in fact lurking then it will get him to post.

@ruru does it matter that his last visited date is more than 2 hours before this game began?

Is your vote serious?

I want to hear from him and I think we have a better chance of that than of hearing from people who have been AFK for a longer time.

Why do you want to hear from them especially? Do you consider 4 hours into a game being AFK for a longer time?

Others have "last visited" date earlier than him. This is what I mean by "longer time". So they are less likely to be online and lurking, and more likely to be just offline. I picked him because his was most recent, making it more likely that my vote will lead to him posting.

[ruru]

I don’t have any feelings about RVS. This is my first game so no opinions here really

@ruru, any number of reasons to not post. Maybe someone checked the thread and didn’t have time to post a reply. Also Ppl have different game styles. Lurking this early in a game isn’t really stalling a game and holding town back

Are you saying you don't want eth0s to post?

(Note: I'm new here and to forum mafia in general. I've mostly read through forum games elsewhere and they usually have ~48 hour days so I guess there is more pressure to get things done there. But even with 2 week days I think posting is more beneficial to town than lurking.)

Ah, yeah I have misread that.

You've chnaged your vote to ofrhv, don't you think eth0s is lurking anymore?

It was a random vote with the added benefit that *if* he is lurking and not just AFK, that it might get him to talk. That purpose has already been somewhat derailed but now we have new information anyway.

ofrhz's "I don’t think lurking is a scum tell" is by far the scummiest thing I've seen so far.

[ruru]

Are you saying you don't want eth0s to post?

Lol I can’t tell if this is misdirection or bad reading comprehension skills.

VOTE: ruru

I mean I still want to know why you think lurking isn't at all scummy and this post does not address that

[ruru]

Does it bother you that Drixx/westen/callitwhatyouwant haven't posted yet?

Drixx hasn't been online today, and the other two haven't confirmed. I assume people flake relatively often in newbie games, and the number of posts about replacements in the newbie queue seem to confirm this.

So out of those three I will be most suspicious if Drixx doesn't post today. It does not bother me that he hasn't posted yet.

ofrhz's "I don’t think lurking is a scum tell" is by far the scummiest thing I've seen so far.

Why do you think this is scummy?

Because as an unqualified statement it both encourages poor town play and also helps lurking mafia avoid pressure.

I mean I still want to know why you think lurking isn't at all scummy and this post does not address that

In post 16, I said this: @ruru, any number of reasons to not post. Maybe someone checked the thread and didn’t have time to post a reply. Also Ppl have different game styles. Lurking this early in a game isn’t really stalling a game and holding town back

Plz read

You also posted this, though, which reads like an absolute statement to me:

Oh what my last post didn’t take

I don’t think lurking is a scum tell and the game just opened so wanting to hear from people who’ve been “afk for a long time”? That’s just grasping at straws

Saying "I don't think lurking is a scum tell

when

the game just opened [...]" would be a bit of a different story to me.

[ruru]

I'm still really confused why you found eth0s sketchy for not posting tbh given the short timeframe. I kinda feel like you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Like you're conflating 'not being on-site for two hours before the game started' with 'lurking', when they're totally different things.

I chose my random vote based on what I thought was most likely to generate useful information. I didn't find eth0s particularly sketchy.

I found defending eth0s

based on an argument that I consider anti-town in general

to be sketchy.

Yes, lurking can be sketchy, but to label eth0s as a potential lurker for not posting after two hours before the game started is just really flimsy reasoning imo, and you used that to push eth0s, and as a springboard to push ofrzh for enabling/encouraging/supporting the anti-town behavior of:

Because as an unqualified statement it both encourages poor town play and also helps lurking mafia avoid pressure.

And say lurking is actually a scumtell (like I said earlier, I kinda disagree with this premise). Why is ofrzh scummy for saying it isn't? Yes, I agree that lurking is anti-town. But why is it *scummy* that he thinks that lurking isn't a scumtell? Why isn't he just town who holds a different opinion on lurking than you?

Am I scummy for thinking that lurking isn't inherently AI?

At this point three people are saying that lurking is not scummy. Considering that it is three and not two, maybe I'm just wrong about what is good play. But to me the idea that lurking is completely neutral is strange. (And I realize PRs might have reason to lurk, but in 7/9 setups town PRs are 1:1 mafia and in 2/9 setups town PRs are 1:2 mafia, so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing.)

[ruru]

You're harping on me for using the word "and" instead of "when?" I thought my meaning was obvious given the context of the rest of my post/sentence. I can kinda see where your confusion is coming from, but it still feels like too much of a stretch, and I still think you were building a strawman here.

Based on this and other responses I don't find you particularly scummy, not enough to leave my vote overnight.

UNVOTE: ofrhz

[ruru]

I know that high effort =/= town, but still, starting to get the feeling that there's a scum in the 2 that haven't posted just based on the behavior of most of the speaking players.

Very early to say but I wouldn't mind a wagon on one of the lurkers at some point today tbqh

Which posts made you change your mind and why?

[ruru]

Oxy: I get that you're townreading me because we had similar thoughts about how to approach the game (or so you say), but why are you

so

sure?

Also, I have a question for everyone here. If you could choose your role at the beginning of the game, which would you prefer?

[ruru]

The other aspect of it is ethics. Many players choose to log on invisible sometimes or all the time because of profile skimming being used against them in the way you did. Even if it is actually the case that someone actively dodging a game is scum more often than not (and that's not a proposition I would even accept without some evidence), it's kind of a sleazy way to play the game. Mafia is about reading people and intentions, and about rhetoric. Checking the last time someone visited the site doesn't really demonstrate any skill or bring any value to the game.

Are you speaking here as IC or as a player?

[ruru]

Also, I have a question for everyone here. If you could choose your role at the beginning of the game, which would you prefer?

Do you think you will get anything ai out of answers? Or you are just trying to move the game forward?

I think it could give information about people's personalities which aren't AI by themselves but can be compared to their actions. (I also was trying to move the game forward.)

[ruru]

I think it could give information about people's personalities which aren't AI by themselves but can be compared to their actions. (I also was trying to move the game forward.)

Could you elaborate on this? I mean, an example where chosing and aligment and acting in specific way gives you a result.

I would prefer to answer this later because answering it now could change people's behavior.

Why did you want to moved the game from the state it was in?

It's not easy to form reads based on the writing of people I haven't met before, since I don't have anything to compare it to, so I wanted to try a new approach.

BTW, so far I have answers from skitter, Oxy, and ofrhz, but not from eth0s, and Drixx, or you, Sajj. I'd love to hear from the rest!

I will say there seems to be a lot of scum hunters in this game which I am not used to, especially in newbie queue. I think this game will be a head scratcher

I don't like this very much at all. Similar to "wow, that sucks" after a PR gets NKed, it just seems too easy for scum to post about how hard/confusing the game is without contributing much.

[ruru]

I just spent a ridiculously long time going through Oxy v Sajj; it was hard to follow because there was so much talking over each other.

I know right...

However, Sajj's defensiveness comes off as genuine.

She also acted tilted at one point in 1859 when being accused. I would consider her defensiveness as NAI.

It feels to me like Sajj is playing with the goal of not being scum read rather than playing with the goal of finding scum. Does anyone else see it that way?

I think her playing style is a bit odd. Not inherently scummy or towny, just odd, and that makes it more difficult to read.

My introduction to mafia was IRL mafia in a certain circle of what I think were fairly experienced players. I had never played or seen the game played before, and I was majoring in math, so my playstyle was pretty strange. I played two games with them; in the first I rolled mafia and the second I rolled VT. In both games I claimed mafia with a villainous grin on day 1, because I thought I may as well explore weird options to balance myself (in the poker/game theory sense), because I didn't think I could pull off mafia when I rolled it unless I always acted scummy and I didn't want people to be reading me. (I also got lynched on day 1 in both games and never played mafia again with that group.)

SS reminds me of a much less silly and more sophisticated version of that. It almost feels like she is playing with the goal of balancing herself for future metagame reasons. Or maybe I am reading way more into this and it's just her personality.

One other thing I noticed is she likes to not-answer people's questions by asking them a question instead. I think she is doing this more here than she did in 1859.

@188 I believe she did answer my question but I will wait for another explanation.

I was really looking for ruru's comments on the state of the game.

Also she said she was trying to move the game forward by asking the question, but she never really followed up on it, or commented much after that. So was she saying that to be like "look at me, I want to move the game forward to help town!!!111"? basically I still think she's suspicious.

I haven't followed up on it because not everyone has answered yet and I don't want to help scum game the question. I'm planning to post my reads afterward.

[ruru]

205 - I'm an applied math major (and I'm taking game theory next quarter )

Yay

Game related - This entire post kinda feels kinda :/ to me. Like you don't outright call Sajj scum, but indicate you find her sketchy for a variety of reasons. But since you don't really follow that up by trying to sort her by talking to her or by laying down a vote, I kinda feel like you're just making a general observation that you find her sketchy without doing anything about it. It makes me feel like you're comfortable finding her vaguely sketchy

Hmm... I think my post is calling her difficult to read, not particularly scummy. It's interesting that you read it that way. Do you want me to think she is scummy? Would you like to see a wagon on her? If I took your post as motivation to vote, even though you don't find her scummy, would you be held accountable for the wagon?



She's been under pressure all game, but it hasn't helped me develop a read. Personally I would lynch her only as a last resort if we don't accomplish anything before then. And since we have a

lot

of posts on Oxy vs Sajj, I would be much more interested in seeing reactions from someone else at this point. Like you!

without trying to sort her, which feels kinda shade-y to me.

I did spend most of my game time yesterday rereading Oxy vs Sajj and newbie 1859.

[ruru]

One other thing I noticed is she likes to not-answer people's questions by asking them a question instead. I think she is doing this more here than she did in 1859.

Could you quote some examples?

31 (Reason or not, the end result is that the questions got answered FILO)
(I falsely remembered 36 as being an example, too, but you did also answer in the same post so scratch this one)
73
111 (Even after answering your question in 118, I still I had to prod you in 160 to get an answer)

I think I have addressed all the things from yesterday, if I have missed anything let me know. I will be bearly present or not all through the weekend, so people with have time to catch up.

Yes, I would probably be trying to lynch you right now if you never answered the original questions at all.

[ruru]

@Drixx Also do you mind answering which role you prefer and why before you go?

[ruru]

Ok guys its really late here in Chile and I tried to read everything but somewhere in between became really difficult, and I already convinced myself that Oxy is scum and that his partner is either ruru or ofrhz because of the early towncred to both. A lot of scum motivation there, gives free credit to his partner by giving credit to two players instead of one. The towncred he gives to both is so random I really can't see any other explanation. Also his 1v1 with Scioness seems like building the first mislynch of the game, and he's doing quite good, but nah, you're scum.
VOTE: Oxy

Interesting. Do you think ofrhz has acted scummy?

Also, if you could pick your role, which role would you prefer and why?

I did spend most of my game time yesterday rereading Oxy vs Sajj and newbie 1859.

You mean 1851?

Yes

One other thing I noticed is she likes to not-answer people's questions by asking them a question instead. I think she is doing this more here than she did in 1859.

Could you quote some examples?

31 (Reason or not, the end result is that the questions got answered FILO)
(I falsely remembered 36 as being an example, too, but you did also answer in the same post so scratch this one)
73
111 (Even after answering your question in 118, I still I had to prod you in 160 to get an answer)

In the original you have said that I didn't answer those question but I did answer everything but 73. So is your original point that instead of answering questions I ask questions or that before I answer qestions I ask questions and then answer?

It's that sometimes your first response when questioned is to ask a question, not to answer the question.

I think I have addressed all the things from yesterday, if I have missed anything let me know. I will be bearly present or not all through the weekend, so people with have time to catch up.

Yes, I would probably be

trying to lynch you right

now if you never answered the original questions at all.

There is no question in my post there, what exactly are you implying?

I originally thought this was about the same subject as the previous paragraph, but now I see I misread it. I'm implying that refusing to answer questions at all would be really scummy, but it's not what you did.

Hmm...

I think my post is calling her difficult to read, not particularly scummy.

It's interesting that you read it that way. Do you want me to think she is scummy? Would you like to see a wagon on her? If I took your post as motivation to vote, even though you don't find her scummy, would you be held accountable for the wagon?

She's been under pressure all game, but

it hasn't helped me develop a read.

Personally I would lynch her only as a last resort if we don't accomplish anything before then.

And since we have a lot of posts on Oxy vs Sajj, I would be much more interested in seeing reactions from someone else at this point. Like you!

I'm confused by the chnage of your stance here. Elaborate, please?

Hmm, how did my stance change? I'm not sure what you're asking.

Also, do you know or are you guessing what you were trying to say in your orginal post to Skitter?

I'm explaining how I personally read my own post, what I think the words mean, and what I meant when I wrote them. Miscommunications arise when people think the same words have different meanings.

[ruru]

SS: Ok.

Meanwhile...

At this point three people are saying that lurking is not scummy. Considering that it is three and not two, maybe I'm just wrong about what is good play. But to me the idea that lurking is completely neutral is strange. (And I realize PRs might have reason to lurk, but in 7/9 setups town PRs are 1:1 mafia and in 2/9 setups town PRs are 1:2 mafia, so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing.)

umm. actually lynching a scum or VT would be the best bet. Why would you say that lynching a PR is better than lynching a VT?

@eth0s I don't think we should lynch a random lurker, but your response - misunderstanding or purposeful mischaracterization?

I also don't think we should lynch a random lurker. wagon =/= lynch. So I don't think you should imply that I said that. Also I didn't misunderstand or misrep ruru. She said "so lynching a random non-VT player should be a good thing". That sentence just doesn't sit well with me. Obviously lynching scum is a good idea but why imply that VT is the worst thing to lynch? That just doesn't make any sense.

I really find it strange that someone who is playing to win as town would be misunderstanding this multiple times. If you misunderstood it once, wouldn't you start thinking through the possibilities?

1. not giving you a readlist because I don't need to.

There's not enough going on for me to read yet. Give me an irl day or two and you'll get reads. Probably more frequently than you want.

VOTE: Scioness Sajj

Will elaborate when I have more time. Should be available within next 14 hours. Almost done being super bust for awhile.

VOTE: eth0s

I didn't bother you the past couple days, but that doesn't mean I've forgotten about you. Please explain your play.

Recommended reading: Newbie 1848. Is it the same person?

[ruru]

I'm a little biased about my Oxy read, but yes, I've seen scummy behavior coming from you and ofrhz. BUT! The thing is, you've been acting scummy either if you're Oxy's partner or not.

Which of my posts seem scummy to you and why?

What I mean is, if we lynch Oxy today and he flips scum, both you and ofrhz would be in my lynchpool for D2; but if Oxy flipped town, you would still be on my lynchpool and I would townlean ofrhz. This, because knowing that Oxy is town, I would know the motivations in his posts about you and ofrhz, and that would be good for you both, but as I said, you have been scummy with or without Oxy. You remind me of myself in my first town game, but also on my first scum game... So I'll have to sort you out before it's too late.

You said ofrhz is acting scummy, but then you said that you would not suspect him if Oxy flipped town. But the reason you link Oxy to ofrhz is because Oxy town-read ofrhz - in other words, not because of ofrhz's behavior.

So I'm not really clear on your answer. Is ofrhz behaving scummy or not?

[ruru]

Also on this subject, I don't understand Drixx's post either and would like to know what he means.

[ruru]

Conclusion? Ruru was REALLY gamesolvey at the start and it made sense, since she said she was used to another forum where days were shorter; that's why her unvote on ofrhz ping me as scum retracting on getting too much attention with a wagon no one was following.

Or maybe it was the beginning of the game and all I had was a first impression and I got what I wanted out of the interaction?

What kind of attention would it draw for scum!ruru to leave the vote? Either a wagon forms (meaning people are now agreeing), or nothing happens.

2. Never said ofrhz was acting scummy before, I said there was some scummy behavior coming from him and you

If you really want to accuse me alone (or me and Oxy) of scummy behavior, but feel ofrhz is acting towny, saying scummy behavior "from him and me" is a bit strange.

If there was a D1 wagon on ofrhz (assuming you can't lynch Oxy or me), would you vote on him?

Hmm... I think my post is calling her difficult to read, not particularly scummy. It's interesting that you read it that way. Do you want me to think she is scummy? Would you like to see a wagon on her? If I took your post as motivation to vote, even though you don't find her scummy, would you be held accountable for the wagon?

I don't particularly want you to find her scummy. I do want you to come to some sort of a stance, and if you can't, at least try to sort her, which I don't really see you doing. You seem fine settling for calling her hard to read and finding her posting style affected, without doing much about it.

I don't really think I'd be accountable for your vote on her. And even if I was, I'm not sure why I'd then be accountable for the entire wagon?

Why does sorting SS matter more to you than sorting any of the other players? She's not the most suspicious to me.

She's been under pressure all game, but it hasn't helped me develop a read. Personally I would lynch her only as a last resort if we don't accomplish anything before then. And since we have a lot of posts on Oxy vs Sajj, I would be much more interested in seeing reactions from someone else at this point. Like you!

OK, if scioness is a last resort, who would you feel more comfortable lynching? And like I feel like I've been sharing my reactions as I've had them. (There's one or two things I've neglected to follow up on cuz I want to see them develop naturally.) And if there's something in particular you want me to address, lmk.

I meant reactions to pressure, not to the game; you haven't been under pressure at all this game and that alone makes me slightly suspicious.

Here are my reads:

Spoiler:

Scummy:
eth0s: for reasons I've mentioned already. Additionally, in general, his posts often seem motivated toward not getting lynched and not motivated toward helping town. I would think a town player with very limited time would especially prioritize the latter.
pinturicchio: I'm not sure a town player would have thought to have basically solved the game on day 1, especially having recently replaced into the game.

Neutral:
NSG
Drixx
skitter30
SS

Somewhat towny:
ofrhz: I ended up liking his reaction to my pressure. Our interactions seemed to indicate that he hadn't really re-read his own wording on the post that I originally voted him for. I think scum!ofrhz would be rereading his own post the instant someone didn't like it. Also I think his answer that he would prefer to be mafia roleblocker is consistent with the way he handled the interactions, which felt like "this vote is stupid, I don't want to type a fancy argument about why it's stupid because I didn't even roll scum".

Towny:
Oxy: While his overall behavior is town, I found 70 questionable and I was wondering if 30 was an attempt to pocket me. 90 eased a lot of my suspicions as I don't think scum would be thinking that way. If he is scum, then I think he genuinely believes he is town.

I would be more interested in a wagon on any of the other neutral players than on SS.

260 - ruru, what's your opinion on oxy? I kinda feel like you're avoiding taking a stance on the 1v1, and this vote feels really weirdly timed to me given the current gamestate. I almost feel like you're trying to avoid the issue of the day or move the gamestate elsewhere.

Yes, I am. I feel like the 1v1 is not the most interesting topic. I think it is likely a TvT because I think Oxy is pretty towny and SS is something like 3/4ths town. And if SS is scum, I think it will be easier to find out through game developments than by spending all of day 1 on her. Also on a personal level I'm not having that much fun reading so much of what feels more like Oxy and SS arguing about nothing and less like deduction (is day 1 always like this when there's a 2 week deadline?).

I voted on eth0s yesterday rather than earlier because he said to give him time for out-of-game reasons. Time has passed and he is not doing the things he said he would do. If I voted him earlier, I don't know if he would show up to the thread, but now it's the weekend, so I think it was a good time.

Would do it now but alcohol may be clouding my judgement.

Afraid of slipping?

I originally thought this was about the same subject as the previous paragraph, but now I see I misread it. I'm implying that refusing to answer questions at all would be really scummy, but it's not what you did.

Oh no, I have made the dashes to try to separate topics.

It's that sometimes your first response when questioned is to ask a question, not to answer the question.

1. Do you find it scummy? If so, why?

I don't think it's inherently scummy because, no matter your alignment, I think it's often better for others to answer your questions before you answer theirs. I don't think it's inherently towny either. But it was the main difference in your posting style I noticed between here and 1851.

2. Your starting point seems to be that I don't answer them at all. Something has changed or you were just vague?

I guess I was just unclear. I meant that you respond to questions with something that is not an answer, not that you refuse to answer.

Hmm, how did my stance change? I'm not sure what you're asking.

The bolded parts go together.
In 205 you've made an observation but didn't express your thoughts.
In 230 you adjust that observation and say you would be lynching me right now if I was actually doing what you said I was doing in 205.
But in 227 you said you would lynch me as a last resort.

I just don't follow how you go from one thing to another.

This should make more sense now given the above.

[ruru]

I have never advocated for lynching ruru, otherwise I would be actually be putting forth an aggressive argument to get other people to vote for her.

I don't like this post very much. c.f. 268

[ruru]

tl;dr Skitter30 is playing a very townie game. If Skitter30 is scum, I expect her to basically scum claim by Lylo.

Could you explain this a bit more? Does scum have to act scummy before or during lylo?

For example, if there are 3 players left, and the scum player is the "towniest", they can wait for someone to vote, and then hammer. So I assume you're talking about actions before lylo?

Or maybe it was the beginning of the game and all I had was a first impression and I got what I wanted out of the interaction?

My issue is with how you ducked out of the interaction. I find it curious you didn't want to continue our interaction, since I still had my vote on you. I think a town player would have tried to at least draw more information out of me before moving on, but it seems like you were intent on moving the spotlight away from you.

I feel like this is highly dependent on personality/style.

I don't want to lynch her unless the day ends because lots of people in this game have not yet made substantive posts.

I think it is better not to say things like this even if they're true, because it could make it very easy to stall the game. Can we talk about whether or not we want to see wagons instead of whether or not we want to see lynches?

[ruru]

I feel like this is highly dependent on personality/style.

Okay... it's hard for me to determine your playstyle, because most of your posts have been clarification questions. Based on what you have posted, you have been pretty good at following up with people who thought you were scummy, which would seem contradict your playstyle. Do you not remember what you were thinking when you unvoted me? If you do, can you expound on it a bit?

I thought your reaction to my vote was not scummy, and I feel like you are OMGUSing.

About the personality part, your response seemed like you were genuinely annoyed at me for voting for what you saw as a silly reason. It takes a certain personality to respond to this with more interrogation despite clearing my original suspicion, and while I think those personalities are valuable to town, I'm not one of them.

Can you also elaborate on why you think Scioness Sajj leans town as opposed to earlier when you said you couldn't read her? and answer your own question about what your preferred role would be?

I don't think she leans town but I do think a wagon on the other 3 neutrals is more likely to give useful information at this time.

I prefer VT, because you rarely have reason to lie.

[ruru]

I meant reactions to pressure, not to the game; you haven't been under pressure at all this game and that alone makes me slightly suspicious.

OK, why is that suspicious?

Scum don't want to lynch each other on day 1, so if one scum player is not attracting any attention, the other will probably be happy to let that continue.

Yes, I am. I feel like the 1v1 is not the most interesting topic. I think it is likely a TvT because I think Oxy is pretty towny and SS is something like 3/4ths town. And if SS is scum, I think it will be easier to find out through game developments than by spending all of day 1 on her. Also on a personal level I'm not having that much fun reading so much of what feels more like Oxy and SS arguing about nothing and less like deduction (is day 1 always like this when there's a 2 week deadline?).

Yeah, I agree that the 1v1 wasn't particularly interesting and that it was a slog to read-through, and I can understand why you might not have read all of it. *However* I don't really like that you're not doing much to try to sort scioness. (oxy you've come to a conlusion on). Like you're responding to questions she has for you, but you don't really seem to be trying to interact with her outside of that. Now that I think about it, you seem to be playing a pretty reactive game. (ie as opposed to proactive)

I did read it, I just didn't enjoy it. I'm confused that you think I could be trying to distract from SS vs. Oxy, but also that I'm playing reactively rather than proactively.

Do you think moving on from SS vs. Oxy is pro-town or anti-town?

I don't think she leans town but I do think a wagon on the other 3 neutrals is more likely to give useful information at this time.

like arghhhhh I can't let this go

You said in 321: "I think it is likely a TvT because I think Oxy is pretty towny and SS is something like 3/4ths town." Earlier, I wasn't asking why you aren't voting Scioness Sajj, I just want to know why you determined this was likely town v town and SS is "3/4ths town" (isn't 3/4ths town the same as "leans town?"), since earlier you said you couldn't read her.

There are 8 other players, 6 of whom are town; that's where 3/4ths came from. And although I don't have a read on her in isolation, I suspect it is actually more than 3/4ths for her (and the other neutral reads) to be town, because I find two players fairly scummy.

[ruru]

There are 8 other players, 6 of whom are town; that's where 3/4ths came from. And although I don't have a read on her in isolation, I suspect it is actually more than 3/4ths for her (and the other neutral reads) to be town, because I find two players fairly scummy.

To make sure I understand, the "3/4ths town" comment was purely based on probability?

Yes

[ruru]

@Pinturicchio
Do you have any examples of town!Pin that I could look at where you entertain highly speculative "tin foil hat theories" on D1?

Can't answer that because rules, but yes. Actually, Newbie 1854 is a good example too, as I replaced in and began with my wacky theories almost in the same way I did there.

I assume this refers to 407, since your original entrance was less dramatic in that thread?

Your tone is fairly confident in 1854 as well, but when it became tinfoil hat time you didn't have nearly the same certainty as you did in this game. What's bothering me is that in this game you had both the certainty and the tinfoil hat at the same time (and then went back on it, but only after people found it scummy).

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is. That was a pretty blatant post connecting them at the hip. I suppose it could be an intentional fake out... but that would require a tremendous level of self awareness to realize how he would react if he was paired with Oxy and someone pointed it out and then actually react exactly that way and hit all the right notes.

Since Drixx hasn't shown up, does anyone at all have a clear explanation for this post? I'm still not getting it.

[ruru]

ofrhz - towny on his own, I don't like his play that much after the scumteam of Oxy/ofrhz has been mentioned, though.

Does Oxy/ofrhz being a meme actually make them more suspicious though? What makes you suspect ofrhz more than before?

Did Drixx's post on Oxy/ofrhz make sense to you?

[ruru]

I was thinking about moving my vote after the weekend passed because it was looking like we wouldn't get anything from eth0s either way, but we still have a week so I'm willing to try once more.

About the priority list, I think maybe it should not be decided now. If we decide now, anyone low or absent from the list will not feel any pressure.

Not particularly related to priority order, I would really like to see NSG post reads today.

[ruru]

I am currently enteratining the idea of ruru/scioness, but I'm not putting that much stock in pre-flips cuz I know I if I focus on them too much they can lead me very much astray. I'd rather stick with individual scumminess for today, and work with associatives once we have flips.

This does make more sense to me on why you're sussing me. I still wonder if scum!skitter30 wants town!SS mislynched, but there wasn't enough support, so this would be another reason to want to flip SS on day 2. But that wouldn't really be consistent with your earlier posts where you seemed to indicate that Oxy's case on SS was too weak.

I did read it, I just didn't enjoy it. I'm confused that you think I could be trying to distract from SS vs. Oxy, but also that I'm playing reactively rather than proactively.

Do you think moving on from SS vs. Oxy is pro-town or anti-town?

I guess it's cuz besides for your eth0s vote, you're mostly just responding to people say about/to you, and you just seem super cautious. Idk. I kinda feel like your eth0s vote was a distraction and that you're playing reactively otherwise. I don't know how to explain it better right now. Like it feels like an empty vote that was kinda irrelevant to the current gamestate, and was kinda a pressure vote, and just kinda felt like you were using it to avoid taking a stance. Idk, that vote gives me bad vibes.

I mean the game is hard, I'm not always confident in what I'm doing, I don't know what else to say really

[ruru]

VOTE: Drixx

[ruru]

don't unvote - no one in this game is stupid enough to lol hammer as town before hearing from drixx.

If someone were to lol hammer, you lynch them D2 with 100% chance they are scum

I think so too. It's also clear that it's L-1 so nobody can pretend it was a mistake.

[ruru]

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10052685]We need to give NSG and eth0s/his replacement a chance to chime in before ending the day. I can't stress this enough.[/quote]

How will this play out if Drixx + NSG/eth0s are scum?

[ruru]

I kinda almost feel like you've been pushing this wagon in an attempt to forge together a townbloc, with yourself in it. I don't really feel like it formed naturally.

Do you agree that we need more posts from eth0s/Drixx/NSG? Is there a better way of doing it?

[ruru]

?????

[ruru]

I can't see why town!eth0s would make that post. But I also can't see why scum!eth0s would make that post...

My first thought was to derail and take heat off of scum!Drixx but that seems super gamelosing and every other situation I can imagine doesn't make that much more sense to me.

[ruru]

Wait, I guess it is a belated followup to 371? OK, that makes slightly more sense

When is part 2?

[ruru]

Oh, I thought you were reacting to eth0s too, so I started thinking aloud.

What are your thoughts on Drixx and 372?

[ruru]

I appreciate your suggestion, but I'll play my game in the most pro-town way I know how, and engaging you in a long back and forth for a second time is not part of that game.

I like this post

Town!drixx leads to a 'beautiful' townbloc 'breaking to shreds'. The connotation is that this is a bad thing. (ie something beautiful has been destroyed). I don't know why you're framing it this way and I really see a connection between 'town!drixx posting townie things' and 'townbloc getting destroyed'.

I find it somewhat odd that this is being misunderstood multiple times. I thought Oxy was fairly clear. (Whether or not you think that town needs a polarizing leader type)

Like you're saying 'hey, let's put someone at L-1 and give a 24-hour ultimatum for someone to post town content, and if not we'll hammer them.' I don't have a problem saying that if people post non-town content (ie scummy) content, we'll hammer them. I do have a problem hammering someone with a *lack* of content when it isn't necessarily AI and it could just be a real life thing. Do I think it's pro-town if people lurk? No. But I don't think it's *scummy* either. I don't want to enable you to let someone get hammered if I don't really scumread them.

I feel like it is anti-town to post something that a) could plausibly affect the day 1 lynch and b) nobody understands, and then come back to the thread and just post something weird instead of explaining even though everyone is asking for an explanation. This is the kind of thing that wastes time and as mentioned already, wasting time does seem like a viable strategy for scum at the moment. Like it's not

just

lurking (and I've been null-reading Drixx all game).

Like you've given a 24 hour deadline - what if he just doesn't visit the thread during that period and he gets hammered once the time limit is up? Like you're fundamentally making the assumption that he'll actually see it and then choose whether or not to respond and I don't know if that's a valid assumption.

I feel like you're missing something but I'm not sure how to say it

Also, how would you propose to determine the day 1 lynch? Who do you think is scummy?

---

SS: What are your thoughts on Oxy now?

[ruru]

I'll be back in a few hours. or tomorrow. I'm not sure.

Based on this post I assume Drixx's deadline (if it is even still a thing) to be extended until tomorrow.

[ruru]

tl;dr Skitter30 is playing a very townie game. If Skitter30 is scum, I expect her to basically scum claim by Lylo.

skitter30: I know the reasoning here has been explained previously, but I'd also like to know if you personally agree with said reasoning.

[ruru]

how are you feeling about eth0s analyzing the first of 18 pages?

Sorry I forgot to reply this! I'm still townleaning eth0s, as I feel his content changed after he said he got a load of work to do and he got sick; look at his first posts and the posts after he said he was not playing good. Give eth0s time, his lack of posts doesn't mean lack of content.

Possible connection between these two?

[ruru]

I find it somewhat odd that this is being misunderstood multiple times. I thought Oxy was fairly clear. (Whether or not you think that town needs a polarizing leader type)

I'm still not really sure if I understand that tbh.

If Drixx is scum, and if all of Oxy's townbloc are town, and if all of Oxy's townbloc believe Drixx is town, then Drixx will be in a position to promote scummy agenda.

I feel like it is anti-town to post something that a) could plausibly affect the day 1 lynch and b) nobody understands, and then come back to the thread and just post something weird instead of explaining even though everyone is asking for an explanation. This is the kind of thing that wastes time and as mentioned already, wasting time does seem like a viable strategy for scum at the moment. Like it's not just lurking (and I've been null-reading Drixx all game).

It's anti-town but I don't think anti-town == scummy.

I'm having a really hard time with "lurking isn't scummy" + "posting in an anti-town manner isn't scummy".

[ruru]

This game is auto. Lynch eth0s, pin, NSG, and Drixx in that order and we win the game. My bet in 2 lynches, Almost certainly in three lynches, and certainly by 4 lynches. I'll be following the votes of my town reads within those 4. Okay I said certainly but there's probably a <10% chance that Skitter30 is scum, and <5% chance of either ruru ofrhz is scum and <<1% chance that both scum are within those 3.

Drixx could be scum, but I'm starting to doubt it upon reflection. I don't think he lies in a newbie game about his meta of being as active as he can be regardless of alignment. If it's not his meta, it's too easily refuted. If it is his meta, he's not throwing it away on a newbie game. So the lurking is actually NAI in his case.

I'm not a huge fan of this plan.

1. Why do you want to lynch NSG and Drixx unconditionally if you're not scumreading them and they haven't even really started talking?
3. I'm unconvinced that anyone is conftown on day 1 and this plan basically relies on people being conftown.
3. If one of your reasons for TRing skitter is that given her current playstyle she will be obvscum later by having to push poor lynches, but we already decided on those lynches, then I don't think the original logic applies.
Suppose scum is eth0s+skitter or pin+skitter and skitter busses her partner and then just gets to lylo automatically by following the plan (first 2 days would be 3 town + 1 scum dead, then day 3 2 more town die, then day 4 it's 3-way lylo unless PRs save us). And 3-way lylo seems like a big diceroll to me, especially if scum hasn't had to do anything scummy all game. I mean I guess it's 2/3rds win in theory but even that's assuming there are three 100% conftown.

So then what's with the posts? I have to believe that a man of 10 years forum mafia experience can come up with a less clearly anti-town post than that. Like, come on.

They're reaction tests, obviously. What's the most post efficient way to collect reads? What would you do to proactively collect reads if you can only post once every other day? It would take a week to have a simple conversation. A reaction test, on the other hand, is like a trap you lay and come back to.

I see what you're getting at here, especially if 254 was followed up by a post that clears things up. I still don't like 372.

[ruru]

On first impression I'm not really seeing eth0s's recent posts as coming from scum, especially given the timing (Drixx having votes on him, and nobody aside from Oxy showing much interest in lynching him). I'm currently entertaining the idea of Drixx+skitter.

Oxy is not seeming as towny as before. At the same time, as much as I don't like 504, I'm still not reading him as scum.

I'm not really sure what to think at this point. I still need to reread eth0s and I'd like to hear more from NSG.

So then what's with the posts? I have to believe that a man of 10 years forum mafia experience can come up with a less clearly anti-town post than that. Like, come on.

They're reaction tests, obviously. What's the most post efficient way to collect reads? What would you do to proactively collect reads if you can only post once every other day? It would take a week to have a simple conversation. A reaction test, on the other hand, is like a trap you lay and come back to.

I see what you're getting at here, especially if 254 was followed up by a post that clears things up. I still don't like 372.

@ruru how was it cleared up? can you link or explain this to me? still have a shroud of mystery around Drixx rn

It wasn't, that's why I wrote "if" and complained about 372.

[ruru]

(Drixx having votes on him, and nobody aside from Oxy showing much interest in lynching

eth0s

).

Clarity

[ruru]

@ruru can you talk to me about skitter some more please

I feel like pressuring Drixx was significantly +EV and I don't like that she was so against it when, from a town POV, it should be clear that nobody was actually going to lynch Drixx in 24 hours (which I was trying not to say, but I guess I will say it now since the strategy is pretty much done).

The longer he has votes on him the more likely we are to get information either from him or from people's reactions to the wagon. If he's town and scum makes the mistake of hammering him then we found scum, and I don't believe a town player who wants to win would ever hammer given the context of the wagon. I think the pro-town play would be to unvote closer to the deadline, not to do it immediately, and I feel like a town player should be able to figure that out I guess rather than make some arguments about why lynching him in 24 hours would be wrong.

[ruru]

I also think scum is somewhat more likely to panic react to L-1, even if rationally it isn't going to lead to a lynch, because it puts them one post away from instantly being in a super losing position.

[ruru]

@ruru I'm with you on that for sure. What about that hypothetical? Reasonable misunderstanding?

I could see it as a misunderstanding or clash of playstyles; ofrhz also expressed some doubts, although I find his reason (pin might hammer) more credible even if I don't really agree with it. I don't see it as proof of anything but it does make me suspect her more than before.

Also, I'm having trouble with motivation. Why would scum!skitter30 get off that wagon?

If Drixx is town, because the wagon helps town and does not lead to a lynch on town. And by not wanting town to get lynched she looks less scummy, even if it wasn't going to happen.

If Drixx is scum, because she is panicking and not playing optimally.

And people tend to sheep me in general, and this game apparently when I make a vote there's people who will hop on after me just cuz I voted there (ie the drixx wagon), and like, I don't feel good enough about any wagon right now to be responsible for like three votes.

I feel like this is taking the situation completely out of context

[ruru]

Also we appear to have different of what constitutes 'apropriate'. I don't think hammering that wagon if drixx hadn't shown up within a day is 'apropriate'. I don't know what pin thinks about that - he was waiting until he felt better so that he could post his drixx case and I don't know if he would have hammered after 24 hours. I don't feel comfortable being on that wagon.

This still doesn't address why you would remove your vote instantly rather than closer to the deadline. Drixx can't get hammered at 24h if he's not at L-1 in 24h. Like unless everyone actually wants to lose there would at least be an extension of the deadline to argue about it.

[ruru]

Maybe I wasn't clear - my initial vote on drixx wasn't an implicit approval of the L-1 deadline thing.

If you were indeed working under the assumption that people will sheep

you

(and not just your vote), starting a wagon with no credible threat behind it sounds like it could be a good way to distance scum!skitter from scum!Drixx while also making it very unlikely that he will ever get lynched D1 (due to a recent wagon on him disbanding) and not making him feel any pressure to post. Let's say scum!Drixx was AFK and scum!skitter wasn't sure whether or not he would be comfortable with having more serious pressure on him. It could also explain why scum!skitter was interested in voting on scum!Drixx at first but panicked after realizing Oxy's plan was still occurring.

[ruru]

Also if it's me/drixx, scum!me has no reason to pick drixx to vote out of {scioness/nsg/drixx/eth0s} there if that was the proposed plan. I could very easily have voted eth0s; there were two votes there and I could've just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen without involving partner!drixx in it at all to get a mislynch and let the day end fast. Like if I was scum with drixx there's no reason for me not to just support the plan on anyone not my partner without starting all of this in the first place.

I'm not sure I agree that there is no benefit to scum!skitter in choosing scum!Drixx (and I mentioned some of the benefits in my post), but I still need to think a bit more on whether or not scum!skitter would actually do it. And I really don't think it's an alternative to "just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen [...] to get a mislynch and let the day end fast". I find it really hard to imagine a universe where that actually happens, and actively pushing it after 24h would make you look extremely scummy.

Also, I agree that Oxy's vote on pin was weirdly timed, but I feel like it was not necessarily out of character.

[ruru]

About scheduling: I'm generally unavailable during evenings over the next few days. I wouldn't mind an extension either.

Also if it's me/drixx, scum!me has no reason to pick drixx to vote out of {scioness/nsg/drixx/eth0s} there if that was the proposed plan. I could very easily have voted eth0s; there were two votes there and I could've just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen without involving partner!drixx in it at all to get a mislynch and let the day end fast. Like if I was scum with drixx there's no reason for me not to just support the plan on anyone not my partner without starting all of this in the first place.

I'm not sure I agree that there is no benefit to scum!skitter in choosing scum!Drixx (and I mentioned some of the benefits in my post), but I still need to think a bit more on whether or not scum!skitter would actually do it. And I really don't think it's an alternative to "just let the 24-hour lynch thing happen [...] to get a mislynch and let the day end fast". I find it really hard to imagine a universe where that actually happens, and actively pushing it after 24h would make you look extremely scummy.

Also, I agree that Oxy's vote on pin was weirdly timed, but I feel like it was not necessarily out of character.

Idk what to say beyond this isn't how scum!me would ever play that partnered with scum!drixx. I would never promote a wagon on my partner and put pressure on him and call attention to his lurking-ness if I had multiple other options to push that would be just as easy to push.

Like I would be too worried of oxy's plan actually coming to fruition (even if I didn't think it was immediately going to happen) to start messing around with promoting a wagon on an inactive partner.

Mm, I can see this. At the very least I don't think scum!skitter is a positive indicator of scum!Drixx at this point.

Here Oxy is chiding Skitter for unvoting me, and expresses certainty that anyone hammering me (and leading to my greenie flip) would be lynched automatically on day two with "100% chance" of being scum. The underlying assumption here is that I'm town. Oxy spends quite a few posts trying to walk this assumption back by referring to this as "standard" town play and such, but the damage is done. Especially when compared to the next post I quoted.

Interesting. Personally I thought 404 was fine and I assumed he just hadn't thought much about you flipping red because town wouldn't hammer you at all and scum wouldn't hammer you if you were scum, so I didn't read much into the policy lynch idea, even if it was questionable. But if that was the case then I guess he would have just said that rather than talking about the policy lynch in 412 and 421? I definitely want to hear Oxy's explanation for this now.

I have been reading about drixx's wagon and it really bothers me that nobody considered wagoning NSG for pressure.
She has been catching up for about four days at that time, has rather low content posts and been on site doing other things.

Drixx's last pair of posts at the time were pretty questionable (and still are). I think he's acted scummier than NSG, and has been in the game for longer, so I don't see the problem with the choice. And at this point I feel like any credible threat is almost completely gone after all the discussion.

Also I don't remember why I was townleaning ruru earlier. I think she's now trying too hard to scumread skitter, a la 632 and 626.

VOTE: ruru

I guess that's one reason to vote on someone...

[ruru]

Scummy townie in context of Ruru - I believe what makes her look scummy is her experience playing slightly different mafia games before. E.g. in games with shorter days lurking can be a scumtell.

For the record this is my first forum mafia game. I'd only read through the games on another forum; I never signed because I found the strength and aggression of the players there intimidating. The days were shorter there among other things so I did feel some culture shock.

In post 682, Scioness Sajj wrote:
I have been reading about drixx's wagon and it really bothers me that nobody considered wagoning NSG for pressure.
She has been catching up for about four days at that time, has rather low content posts and been on site doing other things.


Drixx's last pair of posts at the time were pretty questionable (and still are). I think he's acted scummier than NSG, and has been in the game for longer, so I don't see the problem with the choice. And at this point I feel like any credible threat is almost completely gone after all the discussion.

Yes, he did. But what would he gain from making few suspicous posts and disappearing? Do you think things he has posted are scumtells or slips? What in game reasons did he have to lurk?

His posts seemed intended to generate confusion and the 2nd post felt like he was intentionally not clarifying. I think that's more scummy than towny especially when we're starting to approach end of day, there were multiple lurkers, and it seems like there's a decent chance we'll be scrambling at the last minute to agree on a day 1 lynch.

I feel like it's not nearly scummy enough to get scum!Drixx lynched regardless, plus since it's an isolated couple posts rather than trolling throughout the thread, he can always say it was a reaction test whether or not that was his motivation. (eth0s also did a reaction test that I scumread while he was posting less; the difference is that his didn't actively generate confusion which makes it not scummy to me in retrospect.) So yes, I think scum!Drixx has something to gain from it, and town has something to gain by Drixx explaining himself, regardless of his alignment.

I see the wagon being build from two parts - for pressure and to lynch.
Ofrhz and skitter voted him becuase they wanted to hear answers to things they didn't understand, that makes perfect sense to me. You and Oxy voted with what looks like intention to lynch. And problems start here. Intention to lynch on a low info wagon makes me think of intention of a mislynch. You both have jumped on 'we demand answers!' wagon with 'he's scummy enough to die!' reasoning with added argument 'but nobody is stupid enough to hammer'.
It bothers me. I need to check who said what and how it played out again.

The play that could have been made, but wasn't, depends on players collectively bluffing without revealing that they are bluffing.

In post 692, ofrhz wrote:
Also I don't remember why I was townleaning ruru earlier. I think she's now trying too hard to scumread skitter, a la 632 and 626.

VOTE: ruru


I guess that's one reason to vote on someone...

Do you understand why ofrhz is scumreading you? Do you agree?

No, I don't understand why he's scumreading me.

[ruru]

Huh?

[ruru]

You evidently forgot why you townleaned me and didn't like my recent posts and for reasons I don't understand concluded they were scummy enough to vote on me.

[ruru]

No, I think he is fairly towny

[ruru]

Yeah I first thought your vote on drixx was a ploy to seem more town. At that point, you were slightly scummy in my eyes.

Earlier I said I was townleaning you for 483 but after rereading, theres no reason to townlean yu for that post. Truth be told I was just reading the posts on a very shallow level because I was busy irl

In the immediate aftermath of skitters Unvote, nothing about her unvote seemed suspicious to you. Or if it did, you didn’t say anything, because you definitely posted about other stuff.

I didn't find it too suspicious at the time, but I didn't really like some of her arguments about it and wondered if she might be intentionally misunderstanding the situation.

I don’t like how you only started considering skitter’s vote scummy after Oxy started probing skitter for scummy intentions.

I don't remember it happening in this order so could you link what you're referring to?

It seems like you’re just following Oxy in this game (first with the vote, then with “maybe skitter is suspicious”). Oxy is also the only person who has consistently been reading you as town I think.

I don't think this is true at all, like when he wanted to lynch SS or when he posted his "gamesolve". He's also the only person trying to lead. I follow him when I agree with him.

[ruru]

His posts seemed intended to generate confusion and the 2nd post felt like he was intentionally not clarifying. I think that's more scummy than towny especially when we're starting to approach end of day, there were multiple lurkers, and it seems like there's a decent chance we'll be scrambling at the last minute to agree on a day 1 lynch.

I feel like it's not nearly scummy enough to get scum!Drixx lynched regardless, plus since it's an isolated couple posts rather than trolling throughout the thread, he can always say it was a reaction test whether or not that was his motivation. (eth0s also did a reaction test that I scumread while he was posting less; the difference is that his didn't actively generate confusion which makes it not scummy to me in retrospect.) So yes, I think scum!Drixx has something to gain from it, and town has something to gain by Drixx explaining himself, regardless of his alignment.

What reasons would scum!drixx have to be scummy like that? The only reason I can think of is if his scum mate was being strongly scumread at that time and said scum mate had bigger value than Drixx.
In the first part you agree it was scummy enough to warrant a lynch. In the second part you say it wasn't at first but then in last sentence you say he was scummy enough to get lynched. Can you tell me what you were thinking when placing naked vote on Drixx?

I mentioned the day 1 lynch in the first part because I think stalling/spreading confusion so that town has to make a rushed decision on the lynch is a viable strategy for scum, and Drixx's post could have been that, not because Drixx would be the day 1 lynch.

I was thinking that Oxy's plan makes sense, and regardless of his alignment, the plan itself is pro-town for at least 23 hours, so there is no reason not to go along with it.

The play that could have been made, but wasn't, depends on players collectively bluffing without revealing that they are bluffing.

What makes you sure it was not the case? What players could have to be collectively bluffing?

I'm not sure I understand the first question. For the second question, the bluff is that town is willing to carry through with the lynch.

i got bad pings from eth0s reading through the thread, but i'm not sure how much of that i'd actually be able to verbalize outside of just a few notes written down.

Is this before or after he posted the walls?

One thing i definitely will say is that i think you all may be being a bit too conservative with your votes, and this is coming from someone who's been described as only voting people when i'm ready to instantly murder them. especially before assemble granted the extension, deadline might have crept up without any real wagons formed. i don't know if drixx has touched on this yet, but in my opinion it hurts town to have a gamestate like this with so few people voting – there's less information to look back on and analyze later in the game when we have some flips to work with.

I know right! And it's hard to gain information when half the players are AFK... I mean, wow, it sure is unfortunate that town has been so passive!

VOTE: northsidegal

Can you tell me how you went from not really being suspicious of skitter to 558 where you were entertaining the idea of skitter as scum? Can you point to posts where skitter said something that might have prompted this? I'm still not following this. And my instincts are telling me that there was something wrong about the way skitter was scrutinized for her unvote, mainly because I would have done the same thing (unvoted) if I was in her position.

Mm, I don't find the unvote by itself to be too suspicious; it could easily be a disagreement in how to approach the game. I do find the resulting arguments suspicious because I feel like multiple people have explained to her what the purpose of the Drixx wagon was, etc. and she's still saying things along the lines of "oh but what if Oxy was just trying to lynch Drixx" (many of her posts, 463 is one example).

I also didn't like her posts during Oxy vs. SS where she was criticizing me for not taking a strong stance on it even though the evidence was pretty weak on both sides. It felt like she may have wanted one of them to get lynched. So that's also factoring into how I read her later posts. Also I feel like it's important in general that I read her posts critically because nobody else seems to be thinking too much about the universe where she is scum.

@ruru, 694 - I thought you were scumreading cuz you thought I was protecting partner!drixx. Why isn't scum!me an indicator of scum!drixx then? IE are you scumreading me independently of the drixx?

I'm still independently scumleaning you a bit because of the above. skitter+Drixx was a theory based on the idea that scum are more likely to panic about the L-1, but like you pointed out, there's an easier play available to scum!skitter than what happened, so it doesn't seem super likely to me anymore.

[ruru]

I was thinking that Oxy's plan makes sense, and regardless of his alignment, the plan itself is pro-town for at least 23 hours, so there is no reason not to go along with it.

Didn't you have a townlean on Oxy? Have you considered his plan as being potentially coming from scum?

Yes, but nobody is conftown. I considered both possibilities.

You've said that my idea of what has happen could be possible but wasn't because for it to work it would need people to bluff.

Nono, I meant

my

idea (and I think Oxy's) of the Drixx wagon required people to bluff.

Ruru, do you think you have been scummy enough for ofrhz to vote you?

No, I don't think so

[ruru]

Mm, I don't find the unvote by itself to be too suspicious; it could easily be a disagreement in how to approach the game. I do find the resulting arguments suspicious because I feel like multiple people have explained to her what the purpose of the Drixx wagon was, etc. and she's still saying things along the lines of "oh but what if Oxy was just trying to lynch Drixx" (many of her posts, 463 is one example).

Do you believe skitter when she said she was misunderstanding some posts? I’m referring to 603, 616, 621. The rest of her posts after that seemed to be her explaining what the posts leading up to the wagon looked like to her at the time, especially 677.

I mean, I'm not sure? I don't see it as incredible but I do find it weird. I think it would make more sense if she was reading Oxy's iso when she posted 418 but that isn't what she's saying.

At the same time there isn't anything she said that makes me think "this post is definitely coming from scum". I do think that if Oxy is scum then she's probably town, but I'm currently reading Oxy as tilted town.

I also didn't like her posts during Oxy vs. SS where she was criticizing me for not taking a strong stance on it even though the evidence was pretty weak on both sides.

It felt like she may have wanted one of them to get lynched.

So that's also factoring into how I read her later posts. Also I feel like it's important in general that I read her posts critically because nobody else seems to be thinking too much about the universe where she is scum.

Why did you feel this way? Do you think she pressured anyone else to find at least one of Sajj/Oxy scummy?

I was also thinking of 273, although going back and rereading it maybe she was just questioning Drixx's assumption rather than implying it actually was SvT. Hmm.

I think it’s good that you’re scrutinizing her posts, but I’m not seeing the connection between what you’ve said and scum!skitter. That’s why earlier I said it seemed like you’re trying too hard to scumread skitter. Feel free to correct me if I’m not understanding.

scum!skitter misreps the Drixx wagon as trying to lynch him, and making her look super towny for unvoting while stopping a pro-town play and also throwing a lot of shade on town!Oxy.

also I’m confused why your vote is on north side gal and not skitter. Is her hypocrisy a scum tell for you?

Yes, I think it's a bit in the "wow, that sucks" category and I feel like a town player who believes that something is hurting her win% would be more motivated to understand why things are that way and how to improve the situation.

skitter is V/LA, and I don't feel like voting on her would be that productive right now anyway because she already gave a defense and it doesn't make sense to lynch anyone before hearing more from Drixx/NSG.

Nono, I meant my idea (and I think Oxy's) of the Drixx wagon required people to bluff.

What actually was your idea? Because you have answered that under a quote of my interpretation and I do't know what one has to do with another?

Drixx thinks he might actually get lynched => Drixx produces some better content for us to evaluate and explains his earlier posts

Also northsidegal, why aren’t you voting?

slipped my mind, honestly.

VOTE: oxy

Can you explain your vote?

[ruru]

I definitely think at least one scum is in eth0s/drixx/northsidegal/maybe skitter (yes I realize this is half the players in the game), just because their analysis of “this is a risky/overconfident play, ergo Oxy is scum” seems a bit... shallow? However, it doesn’t strike me as particularly likely that ruru would be teamed with any of them.

So, I think maybe some people (especially eth0s) have analyzed the game that way because they are kind of skimming the thread due to time constraints. Like in isolation 504 is scumpost of the game. If I read the whole thread in an hour I would probably think Oxy is scum too.

Some of the people voting him are AFK, so they won't necessarily remove their vote if he is getting lynched. If Oxy is town then this works highly in scum's favor.

skitter isn't voting on him (I'm not sure what this means).

NSG first tried to get others to vote in 716. After that, she jumped on the Oxy wagon herself. Her timing seems opportunistic to me.

@ruru- is your vote just a pressure vote or are you willing to push for a d1 lynch of north?

It depends on her response.

I feel like with less than two days left, it’s unlikely for many new wagons to develop, so pretty soon we need to stop pressure voting and seriously talking about voting to lynch. That’s why your vote seemed odd af. Who are your top lynches for today?

We still have around three days I think.

{ofrhz, Oxy}
{eth0s, SS}
{Drixx, pin}
{NSG, skitter}
{}

Drixx, I know you're busy irl but it's kinda bothering me that you're promising content within a specific timeframe and then you don't really deliver. You're starting to remind me of the last game we played together, which isn't exactly a good thing.

Is this 1797? Do you suspect Drixx for it?

And I still maintain that wagoning him to L-1 as a reaction test doesn't accomplish anything if *drixx doesn't see it*, as he didn't once it played out. It's kinda hard for him to respond to pressure if he literally doesn't see the pressure.

I never really liked this argument because it's of the form "this plan might do nothing, therefore it's bad". I'm also wondering, why didn't you originally put your pressure vote (the L-3 on Drixx) on someone else if you think this way?

I think I want to do this for now.

VOTE: NSG

Do you still think Oxy is scummy?

[ruru]

Nono, I meant my idea (and I think Oxy's) of the Drixx wagon required people to bluff.

What actually was your idea? Because you have answered that under a quote of my interpretation and I do't know what one has to do with another?

Drixx thinks he might actually get lynched => Drixx produces some better content for us to evaluate and explains his earlier posts

Alrght, I understand that. You wanted to put pressure on Drixx and you believe Oxy did, too. Who had to be bluffing and what is that bluffing about?

The people who are voting would have to be bluffing that they will not unvote.

You've forgot to explain how my interpretation of the events connects with your idea of what you were doing at that time.

???

I also don’t understand why the idea of drixx + skitter as a scumteam has been dropped so fast. I think it is still possible, unlikely but possible. I think that should be used as an argument against her and not her reaction in itself since that could be either.

I think it's still possible too, I just don't think skitter+Drixx is particularly more likely than skitter+X anymore.

That being said, my reads right now are:
Townread: ofrhz
Townread with a little detail: Oxy
Townlean: Drixx
Null: eth0s
Scumlean: ruru and skitter
Scumread: Scioness

Why do you think Drixx is towny?

[ruru]

ruru's reasoning was "I was following my townread", and I believe that is pretty convenient.

When did I say this?

[ruru]

I definitely think at least one scum is in eth0s/drixx/northsidegal/maybe skitter (yes I realize this is half the players in the game), just because their analysis of “this is a risky/overconfident play, ergo Oxy is scum” seems a bit... shallow? However, it doesn’t strike me as particularly likely that ruru would be teamed with any of them.

That isn't exactly my read on oxy. My read is more: a lot of LAMIST behavior; building a townbloc in a way that feels artificial to me; what appeared to me to be trying to push a lynch on an inactive player; possibly trying to pocket people.

Do you think LAMIST is scummy?

So, I think maybe some people (especially eth0s) have analyzed the game that way because they are kind of skimming the thread due to time constraints. Like in isolation 504 is scumpost of the game. If I read the whole thread in an hour I would probably think Oxy is scum too.

OK, why isn't that a scummy post when people have more time to read the game?

In the context of the game and what I think about Oxy's personality: he believes day 1 is not too random, he wants to solve the game, and he got increasingly tilted due to not being able to solve it with any kind of certainty. And I feel some of where he's coming from on this too; it's pretty frustrating working with limited information especially if it feels like half the players aren't trying.

So yeah, I read 504 as tilted town. If it were a hollywood movie then that post would be made by the villain, but this isn't a hollywood movie and I have a much harder time seeing scum get that tilted over allegedly failing to push a mislynch than I do seeing town get that tilted given the above.

Also I think that pressuring someone to explain a vote with like over a week left is different from putting them to L-1 and saying if they don't post pro-town stuff within a day they'll get lynched. Yeah, he might not have seen my vote on him for a couple of days, but like, the day wasn't going to be ending soon, so he'd see it whenever he caught up. Like it didn't matter to me if he saw it in 24 hours or 48 hours. If he catches up he'd see if eventually and see that was something taht concerned me.

The 24 hour deadline made me uncomfortable.

But in 436 you said 3 days would also make you uncomfortable (despite presumably it being very likely he shows up within 3 days due to activity requirements).

---

{ofrhz, Oxy}
{eth0s, SS}
{Drixx, pin}
{NSG, skitter}
{}

Why do you find Drixx less scummy than NSG and skitter?

At this point, Drixx and NSG are my top two lynch priorities. I'm just kind of confused why NSG is preferred over Drixx. At least nsg gave a readlist. Drixx has so far only talked about one person, which is seriously detrimental going into the next day of the game. Maybe two people if you count his reaction test on me.

I thought there was a better chance of NSG responding honestly that's the main reason. Also flipping Drixx doesn't seem that valuable to me.

---

VOTE: Ruru

Her naked vote on Drixx stands out. It was pretty opportunistic to me and I find her reasoning rather weak in comparison to all her other posts. I have talked about it ealier, I can add more if needed.

I didn’t like her reaction to ofrhz’s vote. She said she didn’t understand the vote 699 and she doesn’t think she has been acting scummy 730 but it didn’t change her read on ofrhz 705 nor did she ask why he voted her.

Maybe I didn't directly ask, but I think my reaction could be reasonably expected to lead to more discussion. I'm not sure why you think this is scummy.

She voted somebody else/made a case after somebody voted her. 260 , 727. Trying to move attention somewhere else.

Do you really believe this is why I voted?

She has changed her opinion on why she was pushing skitter. First she was suspicious because of the fast unvote 609, later she said that it was not the unvote but skitter misunderstanding the situation727.

I did not find the unvote suspicious

at the time

. Later developments caused me to think about it more.

She talked about skitter not playing optimally as scum 609 and made in depth analysis of Oxy’s post 507. Yet she only votes lurkers for pretty on the surface level scummy reasons.

Her vote on NSG gave me all kinds of bad vibes. I don’t know how ruru missed NSG’s read on Oxy and NSG convo with ofrhz about that vote. I also don’t like Ruru’s reasoning from later posts:

“Yes, I think it's a bit in the "wow, that sucks" category and I feel like a town player who believes that something is hurting her win% would be more motivated to understand why things are that way and how to improve the situation.”
“NSG first tried to get others to vote in 716. After that, she jumped on the Oxy wagon herself. Her timing seems opportunistic to me.”

Care to explain why you don't like my reasoning?

skitter is V/LA, and I don't feel like voting on her would be that productive right now anyway because she already gave a defense and it doesn't make sense to lynch anyone before hearing more from Drixx/NSG.

We were four days away from the deadline at that time. In 708 (two days before 747) Drixx promised he would most likely made more posts that night, he didn’t.
She was okay putting Drixx at L-1 earlier in the game when we are close to end of the day, it is totally fine for her to wait for Drixx. That’s stalling.

I was never interested in lynching anyone with 1 week left before the AFKs talked. I generally tried to avoid saying it out loud, for reasons that have been discussed to death. If the deadline is closer and the AFKs are down to Drixx+NSG I think it's probably a lot harder for one or both of them to stall the game as scum (because now they might actually get lynched for it).

I don’t like 761.
Ruru quotes ofrhz’s part of post that was address to everybody, but mentioned her, and uses it as an excuse to defend Oxy and give another explanation of her vote on NSG.

Umm, his post literally asked me to explain my vote.

She also mentions that we

still

have around three more days.

Yes, I did. Do you disagree with this correction? Do you think it is better or worse for town to know the actual deadline?

From her readlist - Drixx is apparently less suspicious now then he was before even though he didn’t post anything since 708 - I think she put him higher because of people’s reaction to her vote earlier.

I address this earlier in this post.

About my convo with her on the last pages.
I have actually misunderstood her with one part. I forgot that I have explained to her again my thoughts of that wagon so I thought that she addressed it on her own.
Still from what I have understood - Ruru was voting Drixx for both pressure and lynch and she believed that people would be there in time to unvote if Drixx made a towny post.
Ruru didn’t really tell me anything that makes me question my first analysis of that wagon.

Did it occur to you that you might be misunderstanding other things too? Like your case on me is all kinds of weird and I can't tell if it's coming from confused town or confused scum.

---

Can you explain your vote?

i have explained my scumread on oxy previously. if you have any questions or would like clarification then just ask.

I was thinking maybe you'd read more of the game and had some new ideas beyond Oxy makes LAMIST posts => Oxy is scum.

Oxy points out that the end of D1 is not so far away and proposes plan to pressure people who haven't posted much.
Oxy gets scum read for his plan, but no other ideas for pressuring inactive players is put forward.

hey, i know the feeling.

Why? Did you ever propose a concrete plan or try to lead town?

NSG first tried to get others to vote in 716. After that, she jumped on the Oxy wagon herself. Her timing seems opportunistic to me.

what about the timing is opportunistic to you? oxy has been my top scumread since i entered into this game ??would there have been a

less

opportunistic time to vote him?

I was wondering if scum!NSG first wanted to see if Oxy would get lynched without her help, and that's why she didn't vote until prompted.

[ruru]

I'm townleaning Mathdino.

I think skitter is probably a better lynch than Drixx.

I don't like that SS didn't answer 850, and said she doesn't want to talk about me anymore. If SS is scum then Drixx and skitter are probably town and it kind of makes me unsure about lynching either of them now.

-> I don't think scioness starts a push on her partner with like 48 hours left in the phase when she isn't going to be around for the rest of the phase

Beyond that, I think that if there's scum in {scioness/oxy} ruru is a good place to look for a partner since she was kinda trying to avoid that 1v1 and direct it elsewhere.

?????

About the error in 850, I meant 463.

[ruru]

This is my first forum game. I read a few games on another site but all the players there were scary.

[ruru]

Okay whatever, if I'm wrong I'm wrong.

VOTE: skitter30

I'll be here for a bit but not super late tonight if anyone (NSG?) has some last minute insights on why I should vote someone else

[ruru]

What makes you think that? I think odds are at least one scum was on the wagon.

Why did you want to lynch me yesterday, and why do you want to lynch me now?

[ruru]

Also why did NSG leave her vote on Oxy?

SS's hammer on her nullread stands out to me but that's just one of the things I found weird about her recent play.

[ruru]

from my POV, I'm town, Math is town, skitter and Oxy are very likely town, so Scioness is the only one that could be scum. I'm kind of on the fence about Scioness, she was okay up until her "We must lynch skitter today" thought process which made no sense.

I would think town!SS would have preferred a no-lynch in general. She's saying Oxy and I are quite scummy and there's 834. So, if the first Drixx wagon was comprised of scum!Oxy and/or scum!ruru then why would she call Drixx a low info flip in 935? And then hammer him anyway despite not scumreading him. It doesn't add up to me.

My reasons for voting are the same as yesterday, and I'm pretty sure I explained them yesterday, but basically you're not genuinely scumhunting. For example, you say things like "I think odds are at least one scum was on the wagon," which is a statement that anyone could make by doing a math calculation and requires very little analysis of the game and the people in it.

But yesterday you scumread me for scumhunting.

[ruru]

@ruru did you ever give reads based on your "favorite role" survey from D1?

It's one of the reasons I think ofrhz is town. I didn't get anything from the other responses.

[ruru]

I was scumreading you for fake scumhunting. You were trying too hard to scumread skitter, which is what scum has to do, since scum already knows who scum is, so scum has to fabricate stuff to make town look like scum.

What do you think about Oxy's case on SS during the first week?

[ruru]

Personally I feel like Oxy was trying hard to find reasons why SS was scum, because she seemed scummy to him. I don't think that's scummy. I didn't agree with the reasons, but I'm not scumreading him because of it.

Also, I was originally asking about the last minute wagon. The first time you voted me for trying too hard to scumread skitter, you later unvoted and said you weren't scumreading me anymore. Then you voted me again later. Why?

[ruru]

Also I don't remember why I was townleaning ruru earlier. I think she's now trying too hard to scumread skitter, a la 632 and 626.

VOTE: ruru

Chag Sameach and happy Easter to all celebrating!

UNVOTE:

btw I'm not hard townreading ruru. I'm just not scum leaning her anymore

VOTE: ruru

[ruru]

{Oxy}
{ofrhz}
{pin, NSG}
{skitter, SS}
{}

At least that's what they are until you and/or SS clear some things up. SS has been ignoring me so...

[ruru]

I thought Sajj's case on you (ruru) was kinda weak. I don't really know how to explain it, but even though Scioness and I both thought you were scummy, her weak case against you made you seem more town in comparison. Does that even make sense? So after your post 850, I was very confused, and had you as null for a little bit.

What definitely changed my mind was skitter's 1033. Her analysis of the game made a lot of sense to me when she said "Hey, notice how ruru's been scumreading me for like two weeks but took her sweet time to vote me when a wagon actually popped up?"

I mean her analysis also scumread Drixx for like the same reason. But yeah Drixx looked a bit scummy on day 1, so I see where you're coming from.

(Also I was trying to do other things with my vote. There's no point in trying to lynch the person I find scummiest when we have like 3 AFKs.)

[ruru]

@ruru- Why would you say Scioness is ignoring you?

(sorry about all the posts)

She never answered 850 (or 1004) and I feel like it's pretty relevant to the game state considering she was leaving her vote on me and a last minute wagon even formed on me afterward

[ruru]

skitter/pin seems less likely than other pairings (but pin has a pretty wild playstyle, so I wouldn't rule it out).

I'm not sure why dino ruled out skitter/NSG, is it because of the vote? If they're both scum, and skitter was under suspicion, does scum!skitter have much to lose by voting scum!NSG there? The wagon was based on first impressions and I'm not sure if scum!NSG was in that much danger of actually being lynched. And it wasn't too close to deadline.

I could see scum!NSG being threatened by dino, because she hasn't posted a whole lot to go off of, so his opinion could easily change later. If this is actually true, then he would be a really high value kill, especially if we were to sheep his read for the rest of the game. But I mean this gets really WIFOMy so I don't know if it actually makes much sense

[ruru]

I'm going to quote every thing that pinged me from ofrhz this day because Dino didn't townread him and I want to confirm that he (Dino) was wrong:

This post is kinda weird and doesn't really feel like your reactions are confirming your ofrhz read.

"I'm willing to fucking lose to scum skitter30" - "her scumgames onsite are horribly outdated"

Cold meta

Why asking an hypothetical PR to check skitter if she's prob!town from his perspective?

I do think dino was townleaning skitter, at least toward the end of day 1, but I also agree with a lot of this post. And underestimating the other players in the game seems like a really easy way to lose.

This is pretty spot on. Skitter is good enough to take it to a win though.

It was a him-or-her situation and he knew he was town so I guess this shouldn't be read too deeply into but yeah.

[ruru]

What makes you think that?

I think odds are at least one scum was on the wagon.

Why did you want to lynch me yesterday, and why do you want to lynch me now?

Bolded is kinda shallow. Like it's a generic observation that kinda shades the whole wagon without actually doing anything to find the scum that you think might be on the wagon.

Maybe I wanted to hear ofrhz's reasoning? Context matters. I don't know why you're just bolding one part of the post here.

1157 - ruru, why aren't you talking about my vote on drixx? Why are you focusing on scioness's?

It was looking like you or him. If you're town, you don't know he's town, so obviously you prefer he gets lynched. If you're scum, you know he's town, so obviously you prefer he gets lynched.

(Also I was trying to do other things with my vote. There's no point in trying to lynch the person I find scummiest when we have like 3 AFKs.)

Um, the point of the game is to lynch the person you find scummiest, not the 3 afks?

??????????

I wanted to get the AFKs to talk before lynching anyone how do you STILL not understand this if you're town

Like the deadline was rapidly approaching. There was a wagon on me. You've been scumreading me for like a week and half. I basically told people to vote me. And you're not voting me cuz you want to vote an afk just before deadline when there's a wagon on like your biggest scumread.

When did I do this?? I was having some doubts about SS but I voted on you. Your posts are making less and less sense as the game progresses...

[ruru]

from my POV, I'm town, Math is town, skitter and Oxy are very likely town, so Scioness is the only one that could be scum. I'm kind of on the fence about Scioness, she was okay up until her "We must lynch skitter today" thought process which made no sense.

I would think town!SS would have preferred a no-lynch in general. She's saying Oxy and I are quite scummy and there's 834. So, if the first Drixx wagon was comprised of scum!Oxy and/or scum!ruru then why would she call Drixx a low info flip in 935? And then hammer him anyway despite not scumreading him. It doesn't add up to me.

Why would you even think that when I was first person to question Mathdino's no lynch idea? The rest of your arguement is ignoring that I couldn't wagon you alone and the time issue we had with the lynch that was talked about.

I don't understand the setup well enough to say for sure, but if I had the reads you said you had, I would have preferred a no lynch or at least tried to advocate the idea for a bit so others could tell me why I'm wrong.

If you're scum, doing some weird delayed announcement of your vote even though you already decided it only increases town's disorganization. If you're scum with skitter, it actually makes perfect sense that you wouldn't want to be involved in skitter vs. Drixx until you realized Drixx wouldn't get lynched without your help.

She never answered 850 (or 1004) and I feel like it's pretty relevant to the game state considering she was leaving her vote on me and a last minute wagon even formed on me afterward

Not relevant to do game state, relevant to you. I left my vote there because I find you scummy, that's what I'm supposed to do when I think I have found scum, vote them. [/quote]

How is a vote and a big wall case (which didn't make sense at all, and that you still haven't addressed) on a player who could conceivably get lynched not relevant to the game state?

I feel like you even engaging on my case is proof of you being a scum.

You weren’t interested in finding out why ofrhz voted you, you barely bothered with him. But when I made a case on you you felt a need to defend yourself even though you thought the case was weak and made by confused town/scum.

I'm actually pretty sure I don't need to explain this anymore

And now you are pushing the ‘I'm the victim narrative’.

Please show us example of me pushing an "I'm the victim narrative".

The wagon on you formed because of your vote on skitter not my case.

That's why ofrhz voted. But why did

you

vote?

[ruru]

Gonna try looking from another angle. I was thinking that Math being targeted night 1 was odd. Like I had a feeling he wasn’t a PR based on how he took control of the game from the outset, and the only other reason to lynch him otherwise is his ability to game solve.

Who do you think should have been a nk then?

Scummy post...

[ruru]

It was looking like you or him. If you're town, you don't know he's town, so obviously you prefer he gets lynched. If you're scum, you know he's town, so obviously you prefer he gets lynched.

Right, so I obviously didn't want to get lynched, but I feel like you aren't actually trying to figure out which of the two scenarios you outlined was happening. Like I feel like you're looking for scum on the wagon and like you scumread me, but you aren't trying to figure out the motivation of my vote.

If I think it's NAI, why would I analyze it?

Given the fact that the start of 1178 is clearly talking about my analysis of the gamestate in 1003 and your vote on me just before deadline, I assumed that the parenthesis at the end of 1178 was also talking about your vote on me just before deadline. Since that's apparently not what you meant, what were you referring to in the parenthesis at the end of 1178?

I am going to quote everything here for context because originally you implied I'm trying to lynch AFKs:

(Also I was trying to do other things with my vote. There's no point in trying to lynch the person I find scummiest when we have like 3 AFKs.)

Um, the point of the game is to lynch the person you find scummiest, not the 3 afks?

??????????

I wanted to get the AFKs to talk before lynching anyone how do you STILL not understand this if you're town

Like the deadline was rapidly approaching. There was a wagon on me. You've been scumreading me for like a week and half. I basically told people to vote me. And you're not voting me cuz you want to vote an afk just before deadline when there's a wagon on like your biggest scumread.

When did I do this?? I was having some doubts about SS but I voted on you. Your posts are making less and less sense as the game progresses...

So, timeline of events:

1. I vote NSG, I leave it there for no particular reason
2. A wagon forms on skitter, skitter posts 1033
3. I come back to many pages of text and think about my vote, I vote skitter

What does this have to do with lynching lurkers

[ruru]

@ruru- I don’t know if it’s just me but that thinking emoji is BIG.

Yes, it's a big emoji, it's not your phone or anything if that's what you're wondering

[ruru]

I would think town!SS would have preferred a no-lynch in general. She's saying Oxy and I are quite scummy and there's 834. So, if the first Drixx wagon was comprised of scum!Oxy and/or scum!ruru then why would she call Drixx a low info flip in 935? And then hammer him anyway despite not scumreading him. It doesn't add up to me.

I really like this. I wish you would take a look at some more of her read progression from D1 because I think you would do a better job articulating any odd moments that you find better than I would.

I'll start looking at this now but there's no guarantee I'll finish today

[ruru]

we can lynch skitter, we don't know if we will be able to lynch anybody else because of claims

Oh, actually just noticed this now. This post has a weird mindset to me.

If you try to lynch someone you think is scum, and you expect them to have to fake claim, then that should be good, right? It's only a problem if you are trying to lynch town.

[ruru]

Oh I see, never mind that makes sense

[ruru]

If I think it's NAI, why would I analyze it?

Because you're saying you're scumreading me but you're not voting me

Why do I have to be voting you on day 1 of day 2?

and you're not trying to interact with me

?

so it feels like you're content to just say you're scumreading me without doing anything about it.

I just don't understand your thought process at all here.

I am going to quote everything here for context because originally you implied I'm trying to lynch AFKs:

(Also I was trying to do other things with my vote. There's no point in trying to lynch the person I find scummiest when we have like 3 AFKs.)

I originally read this as you saying that you wanted to lynch the 3 afks instead of the person you found scummiest but that's apparently not what you meant?

But now I think you were trying to say 'why should I bother trying to lynch someone when it won't happen given that there's 3 people afk'? Is that accurate? Can you just like rephrase the bit from 1178 cuz I think I misread it?

Like, really? You're

still

misunderstanding this?

I wanted to use my vote to get the AFKs to talk so we all have more information to decide who's actually scummiest.

I don't know if PoE'ing teams is super helpful at this time though. I think it's best just to look for individual scumminess and look for partners after a redflip.

Why throw out information like this?

[ruru]

@ruru, 1273 - you don't have to be voting me right now, but I feel like you're scumreading me but not trying to actually do anything about it. I don't know how to explain that better. Like you scumread me. You think that there's scum on the wagon. I was on the wagon. You didn't follow up on my vote today. It feels off to me. Like to me the logical place for you to look for scum on the wagon would be me given that you're already scumreading me, but you weren't really pursuing that angle until I started bringing it up.

This is like a whole lot of weird vague assumptions, I don't even know

Which vote was the parenthesis in 1178 referring to? Your vote on me at deadline? Or your vote on drixx way earlier in the phase?

Drixx and to some extent eth0s/NSG

I don't understand your last line. I'm explaining that I don't think team-reading is super helpful right now without a scumflip first.

But you gave no explanation for why it should be ignored (doesn't fit your narrative?)

[ruru]

Okay I ended up reading some SS ISO + a lot of the rest of the game too because her posts are really hard to understand in ISO. I'm out of time for today so I'll post what I have so far:

Spoiler:

I didn't feel anything about 144, 148, and 150 at the time, but they are actually starting to remind me of the way skitter questions me sometimes ("why are you not just proceeding to go do things with 100% certainty"), and that isn't a good reminder. It feels like it could easily be setting up a town player to make an uncertain guess so that scum can later say "haha! look what <player> was trying to do last week, that's totally different from what they're trying to do now!". Which I'm not really sure is a legitimate method of finding scum because people's opinions can change over time, especially when they're not certain. But it could be a method of getting false positives to convince others someone is scum. (Also I don't know maybe I'm just a bit triggered)

I think this has been mentioned before but if skitter is scum then 199 becomes really interesting.

217 is kind of weird in the context of other SS posts around that time (both before and after) which were calling Oxy confused town (e.g. 201).

284 largely felt like a town post at the time. But then if she did "see what Drixx and Pin are talking about with {oxy, ruru, ofrhz}" at the end wouldn't that mean she was scumleaning Oxy? Also I feel like understanding Drixx is pretty weird in and of itself. (More on this later)

Oh, I guess 353 is interesting in retrospect. I didn't think anything of it at the time and her explanation in 695 felt like a town player. But if she's scum, it does function as an excuse for her to change her read with no real reason. (I guess I thought her read on me was towny before but now I think it's a mixed bag. I don't exactly think it's scummy though.)

I just realized I completely forgot about 377 and I don't think she ever answered it. The questions I had there could actually be pretty relevant.

Note to future-me: I made it to 453

[ruru]

This is like a whole lot of weird vague assumptions, I don't even know

Whereas this doesn't make much sense to me. You're looking for scum on the wagon and you think I'm scum and I was on the wagon but you didn't talk to me about it. I find that weird.

I explained why your vote was NAI to me. I could bring up 20 questions about something I consider NAI, but that's not really how I want to spend my time right now. SS's vote was way more interesting and more new information.

Ok, I thought you were talking about your vote on me at deadline. Since you apparently weren't, let's talk about that now - why'd you take so long to vote me?

I was rereading recent pages, I wasn't at all sure about you, and I was thinking about SS. IIRC I was also hoping SS might show up and answer me before I had to decide.

At the time I interpreted 997 and her tone in general as SS made her final decision and would not be moving her vote off me (in retrospect maybe this isn't what it ever meant), and I thought the timing of everything was strange from her. I was wondering if maybe scum!SS knows skitter+Drixx to be town for a fact, and wants town to lynch town without being on the wagon. That could explain why she at some point decided she didn't want to talk about her case on me anymore.

I mean, it's a general philosophy I have for scumhunting. Associatives are useful, but I've found that if I put stock on that *over* indivdiual scumminess, I tend to get seriously off-track and have gotten screwed over more than once by following associatves over individual-scumminess; it's happened to me more than once that I voted on associatives over individual scumminess and, like, the associative-based read was wrong and the individual-scumminess based read was right. So, like, I'm trying to learn from these mistakes and like not do that.

And like, scum know all the answers and they can manipulate associatives to mess with you. (in the spoiler. Scumteam was seph/implosion. Implosion fucked with the associatives on purpose *a lot* to make people view the game as either seph/flubber or wave/implosion, and while I was never going to believe seph/flubber, the wave/implosion narrative made *a lot* of sense and that's what lost the game ultimately.)

class; I'll look through the ruru/oxy scioness-posts later.

Okay but that's not really what you said:

I think it's best just to look for individual scumminess and look for partners after a redflip.

It sounded like you didn't want it to be part of the discussion at all, rather than a piece of (unreliable) evidence.

[ruru]

- Oxy - Scioness is willing to sheep Mathdino on NSG but not willing to sheep Mathdino's most confident town read? ..........??? I'm not even going to entertain this because I was independently townreading Oxy before Mathdino even showed up to the game.

There is a difference between Mathdino having a townread on NSG when he probably has read every game she has ever played just because he wants to be that good at reading her. (

Add to it that I have played with NSG before, if I am to be confident in any of my reads this game I bet on NSG beng town

).

Do you mind explaining why you're townreading NSG now? I understand sheeping Mathdino but that's not what the second part sounds like

I do think Scioness asking me who the nk should have been was scummy. It was indirectly asking me who I thought the PRs were.

Did you really? If you thought asking was suspicious why didn't you engage me or add it to the reason you were voting me for?
Nope, it was face value question. I have asked because

I wasn't really surprised to see him dead, he did shake up the game in a way that the scum team wouldn't be happy with

.

Drixx flips town, probably lynch
Scioness --> ofhrz --> ruru (on Sci townflip) --> whoever of NSG/skitter30 is still alive (on Sci scumflip)

Hmm...

Do you really think I would think that you know who prs are?

I don't like this very much either. Not in the "scummy post" way, just in the "if you're town please stop" way. I know it's probably a rhetorical question but still.

[ruru]

I'd really like to see reads from pin/NSG and I really need to sleep. I'll try to do more SS iso tomorrow

[ruru]

Yes, I think that egging on a fight is scummy because it creates a gamestate focusing on two people that makes it easier for other people to get overlooked.

(Like right now NSG/pin aren't really posting. If there's a 1v1 between ofrzh and scioness I think it's fairly likely that other players will be subsumed by the argument and kinda forget to pay attention to the two of them.)

Or, like, think about your 1v1 with scioness - it kinda took over the game and made it kinda hard for people to focus on anything else.

My point is that if they don't post, it's more likely to be overlooked, and that a 1v1 creates a gamestate that overly focuses on two players. Like it creates more room for people not to participate, which is exactly what we don't want.

Oh my god you literally scumread me on day 1 for trying to pressure eth0s after many pages of Oxy vs. SS like what are these posts

[ruru]

can't beat em, join em. i'm walling.

What makes you think that? I think odds are at least one scum was on the wagon.

Why did you want to lynch me yesterday, and why do you want to lynch me now?

who would that scum on the wagon be and what makes you think one specifically instead of all town or two scum?

who are your townreads off the wagon?

I said at least one. I think all town is unlikely mechanically, and I'm finding skitter and SS increasingly scummy. I think Oxy and ofrhz are towny in that order

I feel like a lot of your content is "whatever I don't care about this game I'm not even reading it" so all I have is the fact that Mathdino townread you. Pin's range seems large so I don't know about that slot either.

Also why did NSG leave her vote on Oxy?

SS's hammer on her nullread stands out to me but that's just one of the things I found weird about her recent play

.

eh, plainly put i was just lurking it out. i think i would've rather lynched skitter over drixx but if i was trusting mathdino's townread there then drixx was up next but when i checked the thread my vote would've been hammer and i didn't want to hammer, if i'm recalling correctly.

So if I'm understanding correctly, you didn't vote on skitter because of Mathdino's read, and you didn't vote on Drixx because you were AFK until he was at L-1 and you didn't want to hammer. What was your reason for not wanting to hammer?

really interested to hear more on the bolded. what do you think scioness should have done instead?

Given her reads at the time and Mathdino saying it was mechanically reasonable in this setup I would've at least been seriously considering no-lynch.

@ruru

My introduction to mafia was IRL mafia in a certain circle of what I think were fairly experienced players. I had never played or seen the game played before, and I was majoring in math, so my playstyle was pretty strange. I played two games with them; in the first I rolled mafia and the second I rolled VT. In both games I claimed mafia with a villainous grin on day 1, because I thought I may as well explore weird options to balance myself (in the poker/game theory sense), because I didn't think I could pull off mafia when I rolled it unless I always acted scummy and I didn't want people to be reading me. (I also got lynched on day 1 in both games and never played mafia again with that group.)

how much forum experience do you have?

This is my first forum game. Most of my ideas about the game come from reading through some games on another forum.

[ruru]

Scumteam confirmed town NSG by killing Dino. Yeah there's a chance of "NSG killed Dino so everyone would know that Dino was town so we would know that he was sincerely townreading NSG and now NSG is conftown bla bla bla"... bullshit)

What makes you sure this isn't the case?

- ruru is the safe vote, as voting skitter could still be risky with the possibility of Scioness being scum, but ruru is most likely the Goon if there's a scum PR
- skitter would be risky, but if she's ruru's partner, she is most likely the scum PR, which would be a better flip

I realize this is what I would say if I were scum with scumPR!skitter but I don't really see the case for lynching the less likely scum here.

I kind of disagree with a lot of what you're saying, especially the part where I'm scum, but I guess it also seems pretty town-motivated to me

[ruru]

I don't understand the setup well enough to say for sure, but if I had the reads you said you had, I would have preferred a no lynch or at least tried to advocate the idea for a bit so others could tell me why I'm wrong.

Why do you make assumptions like that about things you know you don't fully understand? You have made up a whole story about what town me would or wouldn't do when you don't even have an opinion on the issue yourself.

I mean Mathdino, who seems to know some things about mechanics, and mentioned no-lynching, was right there reading the thread at the time (also recommending not to hammer Drixx until deadline) and you could have talked it over with him, right?

If you're scum, doing some weird delayed announcement of your vote even though you already decided it only increases town's disorganization. If you're scum with skitter, it actually makes perfect sense that you wouldn't want to be involved in skitter vs. Drixx until you realized Drixx wouldn't get lynched without your help.

Wow this misreping.
Nothing was delayed. I have announced it earlier so people would know what I had in mind. My case was posted before Mathdino replaced in and wagons started forming.
I think I have also mentioned somewhere that I didn't want to answer to your engage on my case because I believed my case was enough I didn't want to distract people with 1v1 because I knew I would be unavailable and we were too close to the deadline.

How is it a "distraction" if you actually think I'm scum? How is it worse for other people to have extra time to evaluate a case that you already decided to post, even if you're going to be AFK?

How is a vote and a big wall case (which didn't make sense at all, and that you still haven't addressed) on a player who could conceivably get lynched not relevant to the game state?

Not "not" relevant but a lot less relevant than you make it look. You think it is relevant to the gamestate because it was about you. But objectively it was one case (apparently weak one) that nobody really cared about. One post that people disregarded. Again, last minute wagon on you had nothing to do with my case. You are portraying it like it is important to the game but my case being weak is nai and it didn't trigger a lynch.

You are fussing so much over a weak case on you that nobody was interested in and trying to force a connection between it and your wagon but there is no connection. Your own post made people vote you not I.

This is also were I think you are trying to play the victim. It has 'she could have lynched me!' undertones.

I mean, you voted on me with what looked like a serious vote as the deadline was approaching and posted a wall calling me scummy. It's not like I'm misrepresenting the situation.

Do you mind explaining why you're townreading NSG now? I understand sheeping Mathdino but that's not what the second part sounds like

Now? I never scumread her. I had a townlean after the lynch, mostly gut and no visible scum motivation. Math flipping town made me believe more that I'm right. I don't remember the percentage I have used earlier, it's the strongest townread I have anyways.

I don't remember posts where you were townreading her either though (since 762 where she was null) so I'm curious what prompted you to townread her if not Mathdino flipping.

If you have something to say then say it, don't rely on people picking up your 'clues'. Posting things like that you are just creating noise.

I think my meaning was clear. Why are you so upset about it?

You could share your thoughts and move game forward but instead you have decided to go ISO me again to correct your reads instead of updating them.

Is it a problem that I'm isoing you?

[ruru]

Ofrhz + Pin

that pair of end of day votes precludes this pretty strongly.
Ofrhz + Skitter - plausible
Ofrhz + Sajj - Less likely than Ofrhz + Skitter but not impossible

Pin + Skitter - Less likely than Ofrhz + Skitter but not impossible
Pin + Sajj - This is possible. I wish we could have seen what would have happened if a sajj wagon had started towards end of day

Skitter + Saj - Less likely than the rest I think because of the strong defenses they have given for one another.

so I guess what I'm saying is I want to lynch Skitter today.

If Skitter flips town, I want to lynch Sajj -> Pin/Ofrhz
If Skitter flips scum, I want to lynch Ofrhz -> Pin/Sajj

VOTE: Skitter30

As much as I want to policy lynch skitter right now she hasn't yet done anything that's unambiguously scum-motivated and on the other hand 1220 is really not sitting well with me. Also if skitter flips scum, I still think SS is a lot scummier than ofrhz. So I'll be rereading more SS iso now

[ruru]

Continued from 1279:

Spoiler:

Also 316 proves that he is able to analyze a game on deeper level. So why his first case on me was so weak? Weak to the point I had to explain to him why most of it is too weak to push a case. He didn't come up with anything stronger, he saw that 'his town reads' weren't buying, he didn't really try to reason with people (I don't remember him trying to convince you or get into a convo why you don't find those things suspicious were he had me as obvscum on me, I don't remember him discussing it with anybody), I think if it was town motivated tunnel he would argue more or actually reconsider if maybe what he thinks is wrong since everybody else disagreed with him.

Actually some of what's being described here sounds familiar...

I don't know if you don't think that I'm right then I can't lynch her alone.

She had a long 1v1 with skitter over that unvote thing. She didn't vote skitter once even though the exchange didn't change her mind. Yet she voted NSG for three different reasons that in the end equal to a reaction test.
That's it, I will not speak of ruru till D2.

p.edit I thought you have read my ISO yeah, following a leader is perfect for newbscum.

(To be fair, SS did try for a bit to explain her case to others. But only for a bit, she ignored my response, and after a few posts addressed to others she made the "not speaking" post. Like if I'm scum and Drixx is null and skitter is town, I would think she would try harder to get others to include me in the lynchpool.)

This all is either extremly bad deathtunnel or an attempt to get two easy mislynches off and has a control over the game.

If this is a town play then I don’t think I have done anything in this game or at all to warrant this kind of paranoia/tunnel. It’s bad town play (for both him and me and everybody else, since he is now looking for my partner 369, so he is putting the game in narrative for everybody) and I don’t need that affecting my reads or making me want to go against my wincon just to prove him wrong. I don’t know how to deal with it beside making the game a 1v1 again.
I have tried to make him understand why his first case was weak, but he just stopped responding for lamist reasons so yeah.

Sorry but my vote is parked on Oxy. I don't want to make it about me, but I need this solved because the tunnel is affecting me. I have made my case and he can make his and you can judge from there. Or it can wait till d2, but I'm pretty sure that if I'm alive it will be the same story.

Okay this is a bit weird because it reads to me like advocating a policy lynch but she said she's against policy lynches multiple times.

522 is a kind of odd timing to unvote because 504 (taken as a whole) was imo Oxy's weirdest post of the game. For me it generated more questions than answers. Like if SS cares about sorting Oxy rather than being townread by Oxy then I would expect a different reaction.

I've reread SS multiple times this game and I'm still not sure I ever made it through 575. It's like almost breaking rule #4. I failed again so if there's something awfully important in it someone please let me know

In post 306, Scioness Sajj wrote:
re convincing - I don't find it scummy in general and especially not in the context Pin used it originally.
------
some updates:
- some people are scumming it up for me, I wanna take a back sit for a moment and watch how all of this plays out
- not in for a ruru lynch or putting her on L-1 so I'm hopping off the wagon

UNVOTE: ruru

Again, you unvoting ruru makes sense, but you said "some people are scumming it up for me", and in reality almost all your interactions kept being an ongoing back and forth with Oxy.

Yeah, I have saw some things as potentially scummy. It were things from Oxy talking to you and/or ofrhz I don't remember if it was him talking to me or talking to somebody else. I'm really not sure if it was one of them or both. I have left it vague on purpose, I wanted to see more content from Oxy (and/or ofrhz) and not alert him/them.

Oxy/ofrhz meme again,

still

no real explanation...

I'm not voting for NSG because I think it is too late to make that wagon now, solely on activity reasons. We have four days left and people (me included) will be less present because of holidays. Wagon on somebody to gain information right now will only create chaos. I doubt that even if NSG got here and posted more content any of it would be incriminating enough for me or anybody to feel good about lynching her - she is null for me for lack of information and I think she is good player and if she was scum she wouldn’t scum claim or just slip because of a wagon like that.
Wagoning NSG day 2? sure. Wagoning her now? Unnecessary distraction that may get us into last minute lynch this day phase.

If NSG is town then this is probably town motivated although I didn't agree with it really

Scummy townie in context of Ruru - I believe what makes her look scummy is her experience playing slightly different mafia games before. E.g. in games with shorter days lurking can be a scumtell. I think her focus on lurkers comes from prev experience, not her having scum motivation. Her saying that she would vote me because of not answering questions fits the bill. I think not answering questions can be more of a scum tell in shorter games then it can be here. She goes with those things because that’s how she knows how to play mafia, it just doesn’t translate into this kind of game well.
Things like that stand out and don’t fit in how I understand the game but I don’t think she is doing them because she has scum motivation to play like that. She’s just in the process of learning/adjusting.

I'm kind of curious how this turned into "ruru voted Drixx to mislynch a lurker" because I feel like it's a thoughtful analysis

830 I've already complained about

Summary so far:
* Some more inconsistencies and things that I'm finding suspicious this time around but it could easily be confirmation bias, I don't know
* I feel like the Drixx/Oxy/ofrhz thing really needs to be explained at this point because it's actually super weird. It's too bad Drixx never got to share his notes on day 2, but it seems possible he made those posts for exactly this reason

[ruru]

oh geez, I checked out for one day, and now I'm several pages behind

I know right, let's ask for another extension and all agree to just go V/LA during the extra time

rip my sleep schedule...

[ruru]

Okay

I'm noticing a pattern where I feel like skitter just reads everything as "anti-town but not scummy" when it's convenient and "scummy" when it's convenient

Like there's definitely a distinction but it feels so arbitrary with her. Like spamming the game with stuff nobody wants to read is imo more scummy than encouraging people to 1v1 which may produce stuff nobody wants to read but may produce super useful information.

Case in point: I never noticed 217 until now because both Oxy and SS were spamming the game with stuff nobody wants to read (sorry) and even if I read the words my brain was like shut off.

That being said

* I feel like the Drixx/Oxy/ofrhz thing really needs to be explained at this point because it's actually super weird.

Preferably before we do anything that might end the day.

I'll be back later

[ruru]

I don't see any reason to keep this day going...

If skitter is town, we lynch her, another town gets NKed, then it's 5-way lylo tommorrow. I would bet on at least one of {skitter, SS} being scum but I really don't want to lynch skitter until I'm confident she's not just scummy, but also scummier than SS. Especially if you think ofrhz+SS is a reasonably likely pair then it seems pretty dangerous to me. I don't think just skitter being scummy is enough reason to lynch her right now if that makes sense.

SS, I would really like to see a clear answer to 377

VOTE: Scioness Sajj

[ruru]

Also if scum!skitter has a reason for not wanting more ofrhz/SS interactions, then I definitely want them to happen before the day ends

[ruru]

so ruru voting one of scioness or skitter at all makes you think that she's scum?

Sorry double quote because I think I misunderstood your question.

I've already stated that my three possible scumteams are {ruru, Scioness}, {ruru, skitter} and {Scioness, skitter} (with the last one being less likely than the two first).

I've been sorting which of the three is the better lynch for today, now with ruru's vote on Scioness convinced me that playing it safe is the better option

Could you explain more about why NSG wouldn't kill Mathdino?

[ruru]

I had no problem following Drixx's thoughts in 254 and I think Oxy took it out of the context/misread it and ofrhz panicked? I didn't like his reaction to the posts connecting him with Oxy (on which he has a townlean/townread? i'm not sure) and he went with some posts that were putting you in the spotlight (pin had his scum pool {you, oxy, ofrhz}) and he quoted 268 yet he didn't really find a reason to interact with you all this time? Seems like distracting in a way 'look at her she is scummy, not at me'.

I will add more on this when I will get to catching up and answering things from last night.

Do you mind also answering:

1. What made you suspect Oxy+ofrhz?
2. What did Drixx's post mean to you?

[ruru]

Okay here's my take on plausible scumteams. I'd rather not exclude half the players from consideration though

Oxy+skitter: don't think so
Oxy+SS: don't think so
Oxy+pin: less likely
Oxy+ofrhz: plausible
Oxy+NSG: plausible¹

skitter+SS: plausible²
skitter+pin: less likely
skitter+ofrhz: somewhat less likely³
skitter+NSG: plausible¹

SS+pin: less likely
SS+ofrhz: plausible
SS+NSG: somewhat less likely⁴

pin+ofrhz: somewhat less likely⁵
pin+NSG: plausible

ofrhz+NSG: plausible

¹I can totally see scum bussing their partner on day 1 for active lurking, not reading the thread, etc. NSG is "fine" with the skitter wagon today, but she isn't voting on it despite scumreading skitter. NSG's day 1 vote on Oxy also seems non-indicative to me.

²Even if they're defending each other, maybe they think it will help them lynch town today. It gets kind of WIFOMy and I'm not sure if playing this way is really that risky compared to the alternatives. They could plan to lynch me/Oxy today, bus each other tomorrow, and it would be lylo on day 4. If everyone is saying that they wouldn't play this way because one red flip incriminates the other, then, well, it doesn't. Also this gets a lot more weight than it would otherwise because I think they're more individually scummy than the others.

³SS townreads skitter, NSG like never votes, and based on his own posts about me I think ofrhz knows I wouldn't hammer skitter in this situation. So she was very likely not getting lynched and he may have known it. Actually probably super +EV for this scumteam for him to vote if they thought it out like that considering the worst case is probably ofrhz goes to lylo with towncred. The only reason I see this as somewhat less likely at this point is that it requires them to think of and agree with the ideas that I'm mentioning here

⁴There's a possibility that crossed my mind that NSG is constantly AFK in daytalk and SS was recently yelling at her trying to get her attention. I read a game elsewhere once where one of the scums was trying hard in daytalk to coordinate things and his team was just not reading it. This would make 1371 740 etc. read differently.

⁵One possible explanation for the wagon on me is that they wanted to PR hunt and they were convinced that skitter and Drixx were both VT (note 981 was also made before these votes). Also notable that pin's entrance where he sussed Oxy+ofrhz+me and wanted to lynch Oxy first would lead to lynching me and not ofrhz if Oxy flips green.

[ruru]

soft vt claim was 914 At the time she had 2 votes on her, and her wagon never got past L-2, once with pin, oxy, mathdino on the wagon, and once with oxy, pin, ruru, and then again with oxy, ruru, pin after pin's wagon hop.

Why does it matter?

My initial sense was that an earlier vt claim would've been a play for the towniness of that claim to not get skitter lynched in the first place, whereas an L1 vt claim would be far more towny. Wondering if my intuition is correct there / how much we can trust the claim to be towny.

This is how I see it also, especially considering soft claiming VT at L-2 doesn't expose scum!skitter to CCs. Like VT, PR, and scum should probably all make that play I think?

[ruru]

NSG, what made you scumread me and skitter?

[ruru]

I had no problem following Drixx's thoughts in 254 and I think Oxy took it out of the context/misread it and ofrhz panicked? I didn't like his reaction to the posts connecting him with Oxy (on which he has a townlean/townread? i'm not sure) and he went with some posts that were putting you in the spotlight (pin had his scum pool {you, oxy, ofrhz}) and he quoted 268 yet he didn't really find a reason to interact with you all this time? Seems like distracting in a way 'look at her she is scummy, not at me'.

I will add more on this when I will get to catching up and answering things from last night.

Do you mind also answering:


1. What made you suspect Oxy+ofrhz?
2. What did Drixx's post mean to you?

i sort of do. answers to both questions are in my iso that you have been allegedly reading

1. this have been talked about in detail. a whole convo between me and ofrhz. also the answer to this in the quoted post.
summary: ofrhz reaction to said post and the way he was talking to me earlier

2. if you are asking how I understood it, it has also be answered by me. someone connecting them at the hip was pintu and the rest is pretty self explanatory I believe.

No, it's not self explanatory, your posts are super unclear which is why I'm asking you to explain them

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is. That was a pretty blatant post connecting them at the hip.

So you mean that this part references 240?

I suppose it could be an intentional fake out... but that would require a tremendous level of self awareness to realize how he would react if he was paired with Oxy and someone pointed it out and then actually react exactly that way and hit all the right notes.

What does this part mean?

will you answer that one question I have asked you about NSG? or if you don't like it just share your read on NSG, thanks.

Which? I don't really have a read on her

[ruru]

the one you've missed or dodged.

Umm, can you not? Everyone else links posts that were missed, you can too.

you had a read D1, though. what has chnaged? give me an explanation why you don't have a read on her

I thought her early d1 was contentless, and I wanted her to read the game and post, but apparently she just doesn't want to read the game and nothing's going to change that, which seems like a losing strategy for both town and scum? So I don't know

[ruru]

Hmm, skitter's vote is weird to me and it made me realize something else that's weird to me about the last few pages:

??????????????

Why is 1593 "??????????????" to you and not 1550?

[ruru]

Ruru has been posting like this all game, so I’m surprised this pinged you so hard.

Also this

[ruru]

Okay time to try to make sense of this Drixx thing wish me luck

[ruru]

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is. That was a pretty blatant post connecting them at the hip.

So you mean that this part references 240?

this and the someone pointed it out part from the post below yes.

The way this reads to me is that pin is guilty ("blatant"), therefore ofrhz+Oxy are guilty, which made no sense.

Supposing I understood "blatant" to have different connotations, or I skimmed the Drixx post and didn't notice it said "blatant":

If Ofrhz is scum, then Oxy almost certainly is. That was a pretty

accurate

post connecting them at the hip.

Okay I see how this works

I suppose it could be an intentional fake out... but that would require a tremendous level of self awareness to realize how he would react if he was paired with Oxy and someone pointed it out and then actually react exactly that way and hit all the right notes.

I think Drixx believed that reaction from ofrhz to pintu post was a knee-jerk reaction, caught red handed kind of thing. The self awareness part refers to ofrhz faking the reaction on purpose and hence making a connection between him and oxy on purpose.

He was referring to the last quote/answer from 245 and 247. The why not ruru reaction.

And the why not skitter reaction also I assume

I remember the answer bc she answered in a long response to me, which would explain why ruru (or anyone really) missed it.

The gist was that Sajj, upon rereading Drixx’s post, said it didn’t make as much sense as she thought it did.

Yeah I remember this and I think Oxy linked it a few pages ago too. I was hoping to see more of what SS would say without it being brought up because when I asked her about it this time she chose to just link me 438 rather than 447. Two equally interesting questions I was wondering about were "what's SS's explanation of Drixx's post" and "why did she retract about understanding it and then retract about not understanding it".

Now that I understand her explanation for Drixx's post, 447 no longer reads like she was calling Drixx's post nonsense. So I think she's likely telling the truth here

[ruru]

Ruru has been posting like this all game, so I’m surprised this pinged you so hard.

Also this

yeah, I also disagree with ofrh that you have been playing like that the whole game

For the record I was agreeing with ofrhz

[ruru]

@ruru - in your post 1669, how do the categories work? is "plausible" more or less likely than "somewhat less likely?"

plausible > somewhat less likely > less likely > don't think so

[ruru]

Welcome back! I hope everyone got some good rest away from this game. I know I did.

Did some thinking about Ofrhz + Pin. It's not a thing

At the time of those votes,

The two wagons being seriously considered were Skitter and Drixx

I was strongly town reading ofrhz, Pin was at least town leaning Ofrhz (I'm pretty sure? doesn't really matter), and skitter was strongly town reading ofrhz. Basically, Ofrhz was never the D1 lynch.

NSG was town reading Pin, Mathdino was sheeping that read on Pin, and I was pretty clear that I wasn't looking to lynch Pin D1. Pin also was at no risk of being lynched D1.

So what would the motivation be to disrupt the tvt wagons in favor of some other t?

Purely to try to force a claim out of ruru? Which would mean that both of them would have had to miss that ruru was going to be afk?

This just isn't a thing.

I see your point here

So, then, my pov is still
town:ruru, nsg, oxy
not town: pin, ofrhz, skitter, sajj.

Since Pin+Ofrhz is not a thing, there must be at least one scum between skitter and sajj

I want to lynch one of those two today.

I agree about {skitter, SS} although I'm not really convinced NSG is town

[ruru]

Speaking of which

Scumteam confirmed town NSG by killing Dino. Yeah there's a chance of "NSG killed Dino so everyone would know that Dino was town so we would know that he was sincerely townreading NSG and now NSG is conftown bla bla bla"... bullshit)

What makes you sure this isn't the case?

[ruru]

Oxy being alive in 5way is a decent indicator his reads are upside down or he's scum. Oxy being alive in 3way is a strong indicator his reads are upside down or he's scum.

Btw this doesn't necessarily hold if both me and him are alive on either of those days.

Why do you say this?

[ruru]

pin, can you explain why NSG wouldn't NK dino?

Also, supposing skitter is town, why do you think SS is town? Like what if skitter's reads are just bad and SS is scum

[ruru]

What do you think of ruru's approach to Oxy? Defending him, doing what he asks (my ISO), never questioning him?

I guess I'm asking if you think that she's pocketed him.

I find this question super weird because I feel like my writing style is pretty objective (tone-wise I mean, I'm not saying I'm free of bias) and not super personal. Like trying to pocket a player is some sort of social/psychological process and I don't think I've been making lots of "charismatic" posts where I'm like super best friends with people, I basically just say what I think about the game state.

So... I'm curious how town!SS would come up with that idea. It feels manufactured; just being a town player who has a bias against me doesn't feel like enough of a reason to come to that conclusion.

What I mean to say is hey, SS, I really like how you think about the game! I feel pretty confident that you're town, because you just come across as super genuine. Anyone who is scumreading you should probably stop now because it's just making the game unnecessarily confusing. Who do you think we should lynch?

[ruru]

1. One of Scioness and pin. NSG needs to come under actual scrutiny

How would we accomplish this, like serious question

I townread you at first, honestly forget why that changed.

Also northsidegal, why aren’t you voting?

slipped my mind, honestly.

how much forum experience do you have?

This is my first forum game.

@ruru

how much forum experience do you have?

etc.

[ruru]

scioness- ruru’s townread on me was based on something I said in D1 I believe. I never had any reason to believe she had that strong of a townread on me. She can correct me if I’m wrong ofc.

I feel like the way you make mistakes is towny (and like, you don't try to retcon stuff in the way I think scum would) and you're often one to point out if someone is making an argument that you find questionable in an objective sense I guess? (skitter does also do this, fwiw)

So, I feel like you've been consistent at that and I don't really see scummy motives in your posts. I wouldn't call it a strong townread but it's also not just based on one post.

wait But even if NSG is scum, I think it’s easier to find her partner.

Yeah I've been wondering about that. If you're town and get lynched, we're reasonably likely to just lose or end up with NSG in 3way. I'm not sure if lynching you for information is really the play here...

[ruru]

If I flip town, would you stop scumreading Oxy?

No, it would probably reaffirm the read tbh.

You're a viable oxy partner though, so your scumflip would indeed reaffirm my scumread there.

[ruru]

Scioness is top scumread by PoE. I only have little things that ping to me, but they could also come from town. e.g.
- Scioness said one of ruru's posts pinged her "super hard" as town, but she didn't revise her read on ruru after that.
- Answering my question by asking another question -- I get that I didn't answer her earlier question, but this doesn't preclude her from both answering my question and asking for an answer to hers.
- She said she's scumreading me and then said she has to sort me -- I don't think this was necessarily scummy, but then she wanted to sort me by asking: "ofrhz why do you think you seem different to me d2?" This was just weird questioning, and I don't see town asking questions this way.

Like these things don't build up to a strong case against Scioness imo. I was lowkey waiting for ruru to keep interrogating Scioness until ruru built her case, so I could just sheep that. But I think the last line of interrogation died down when ruru cleared up the ambiguity with Scioness's posts from D1 (so I'm also not sure how confident ruru is on her Scioness read).

I think she's still fairly scummy. TLDR in no particular order of why I think so is like:

1. Her reasons for sussing me are really weird. When people (not just me) point out that her logic is weird, she doesn't really seem to consider much that she could be wrong. Example:

   I feel like you even engaging on my case is proof of you being a scum.

   (Maybe she thought I would be an easy mislynch today due to my playstyle and didn't expect me to go after her? It would make sense in a way.)
   
   
2. Often uncooperative when reasonable questions are brought up. Like if you're town and you think someone is sussing you for poor reasons, it doesn't make sense to be uncooperative. It makes sense to 1) give clear explanation so they can move on in case they are town 2) explore their lines of questioning to see if there's scummy logic behind it in case they are scum. Example: 1722
   
   
3. By the reasoning of her own posts she should be guilty, if it were actually applied to her. Town is certainly capable of hypocrisy too but I think it's more likely to come from scum. Example:

   Also 316 proves that he is able to analyze a game on deeper level. So why his first case on me was so weak? Weak to the point I had to explain to him why most of it is too weak to push a case. He didn't come up with anything stronger, he saw that 'his town reads' weren't buying, he didn't really try to reason with people (I don't remember him trying to convince you or get into a convo why you don't find those things suspicious were he had me as obvscum on me, I don't remember him discussing it with anybody), I think if it was town motivated tunnel he would argue more or actually reconsider if maybe what he thinks is wrong since everybody else disagreed with him.

   About the premise, I strongly believe SS is able to analyze the game on a deeper level than her current play. c.f. first part of 284 695
   
   
4. 217 is weird in context. The second part of 284 is actually really weird since I don't think Drixx/pin ever suggested an ofrhz+ruru scumteam. I think she's also confirmed at this point that she did not understand their posts to be suggesting an ofrhz+ruru scumteam.
   
   
5. She didn't seriously consider no-lynching instead of hammering Drixx, even though Dino was in the thread at the time, nor did she wait for Drixx to claim
   
   
6. Dino was trying to lead town, had her first in his lynch order, and he got killed (Can be pretty WIFOMy but there is a clear motive. I think all WIFOM considered SS would be having a worse day today if he were here.)
   
   
7. I just don't like 1220. It's not necessarily that the post is super +EV for scum!SS - it probably isn't. It's also that I think a town player would have it on the front of their mind why they should not make that post. I actually read a game before where scum asked an even more obvious question. Sample size is 1 but it's definitely not too scummy to be scum.
   
   
8. She's aligning herself with skitter and skitter makes no sense either regardless of alignment, but somehow skitter makes the most sense to her?

I'm not like super sure that she's scum, but I do think she's quite significantly the scummiest player at this point.

[ruru]

Do you actually think we win the game by lynching ofrhz though?

I kind of want to see what skitter has to say today because I feel like ofrhz is a significantly worse lynch than SS and she was expressing doubts yesterday.

Like, I feel like SS is pretty scummy and apparently only 2 other players want to lynch her, one of whom is lynching in self defense? And the ofrhz wagon formed pretty easily. I don't know

And pin/NSG can you please explain why you think SS is not a good lynch

[ruru]

Does it concern you at all how many people are willing to lynch ofrhz when there isn't really a strong case against him

[ruru]

@ruru I think we have wagons on the two players with the highest scum equity in the game. Could you remind me your current reads on Pin and Skitter so that I can take them into account? I just don't want to look stuff up right this second.

---

Oxy -

Town

Ruru -

My strongest town read

NSG -

Mathdino's whole shtick is self appraisal, he is very proud of his NSG read, and he must have had 90%+ confidence in his NSG read this game(or he wouldn't have sheeped NSG's somewhat confident read on Pinturicchio.) Not sheeping Mathdino on this read 100% seems bad because he has a far greater ability to read her than I can hope for in this game.

Maybe I'm biased here because I don't want to lose to AFK scum, but to me it's still pretty crazy that anyone could have that accurate of a read based on the information he had. (I read Mathdino's wiki though and apparently he is fairly accurate... but I imagine he usually has more information to base it off of too than just one part of D1? idk)

Skitter -

My gut, Mathdino, and NSG are all town reading skitter. I can't remember off the top of my head what your current read on skitter is, but I don't think you have bigly confidence in this read right now? Correct me if I'm wrong

Yeah no. Like she posts things that seem so implausible from town to me but then she also posts things like 1752 which are also hard to imagine from scum. I still scumread her a bit, but I'm not confident

Pinturicchio -

My weakest town read, but he is an enigma

I'm sort of here too. His townrange is evidently large and most of his pairings don't seem particularly likely. I do think NSG+pin could be a thing though.

I think PoE + Game fatigue are why you haven't seen a case on Ofrhz.

Am I tunneling? PoE aside for a minute like what are the most scummy things ofrhz has posted in your opinion

[ruru]

Where did the ruru scum read go? This is after he forgot why he was town reading ruru and then voted her for pushing skitter. Last mention of ruru was in 755 and heavily implied he still scum read her

Oh, I thought 755 meant he decided I was town by PoE. Also like some of his original reasons for voting me were based on inaccurate history (see 718) so I feel like it's not unexpected for him to scumread me less after my responses. The history mistake is actually one of the things that make me think he's less likely to be scum. Like you're scum and trying to fabricate a case on someone... do you start by forgetting the order things happened in and then just posting it? I'm sure there's a counterargument that he's lazy scum but I feel like lurking or making intentionally vague posts about gut reads would be more indicative of lazy scum than that kind of mistake.

893: Are you... scumreading a post for being LAMISTy?

1097 &c.: I guess these are a bit weird, but I think he was reacting to the NK at first. I think it would be a lot more weird if his first vote was on anyone other than SS.

<snip>

1172: He did correct the 1033 link here:

I linked the wrong post. I meant 978. Her 1033 was what made me more sure of ruru

I often confuse post numbers when searching for posts (like I'm sure something was post 555 but when I go look at 555 it was actually some random post) so I didn't read much into this at the time. But yeah I guess it could be an indicator that the story was made up on the spot.

1202: Yeah this one is interesting. Suppose ofrhz is scum and this is a slip, is the thinking that this implicates one of dino's townreads then?

Ofrhz unvotes ruru in 778 because he wants town to focus on something, but he doesn't vote anywhere again until voting ruru again in 1023. If Ofrhz wanted to organize town efforts, why let his vote sit idle?

According to 895 he stopped scumreading me sometime after unvoting and I guess I just don't have a hard time believing that a town player is unsure about the game state on D1.

1234: I see why people are scumreading this but I kinda feel like it's the kind of post that makes someone who speaks their mind without filtering it (and this is consistent with ofrhz in general) an easy mislynch rather than the kind of post scum would actually make. I don't know how else to describe it.

Overall, I'm pretty unconvinced on scum!ofrhz right now. About his voting patterns on me, I had a lot of questions too earlier D2 but I found his explanations pretty believable.

[ruru]

I never dismissed Oxy?

You're definitely dismissing me lately at the very least

That poeple have weak arguments that I'm scum

Okay case in point, recently you were happy to point out your favorite points I brought up against you but you showed no interest in actually addressing them. Which is like just spamming the thread but not actually advancing the game...

This is especially relevant because of the possibility of ofrhz getting hammered without you having to address them

[ruru]

Well I guess maybe less so now

[ruru]

VOTE: unvote

I don't CC

SS, why didn't you check me last night?

I'm not voting for NSG because I think it is too late to make that wagon now, solely on activity reasons. We have four days left and people (me included) will be less present because of holidays. Wagon on somebody to gain information right now will only create chaos. I doubt that even if NSG got here and posted more content any of it would be incriminating enough for me or anybody to feel good about lynching her - she is null for me for lack of information and I think she is good player and if she was scum she wouldn’t scum claim or just slip because of a wagon like that.
Wagoning NSG day 2? sure. Wagoning her now? Unnecessary distraction that may get us into last minute lynch this day phase.

If you thought NSG was sketchy enough to check then why wouldn't you want to see this wagon? If you're worried about the NK you could vote without a serious reason.

I'm not sure if I believe this claim yet. And I think scum could just as easily leave crumbs too because I think cop is optimal for scum to fake claim in 2/3rds of the setups and they would know that from the start.

Players who strongly townread NSG: {Oxy, pin, SS}
Players who didn't: {ruru, skitter, ofrhz}

NSG was probably not really lynchable today. I think she's a reasonable choice for scum to fake check.

If SS is scum it would be extremely risky to fake check the other scum so I guess NSG is town either way?

I think JK should CC if there is one.

I mean, game is almost solved from my pov.

nsg and me are town. so I need two obv!town people and I have perfect poe with one mislynch.

The game is also almost won for you if you're scum and everyone believes you too...

Spoiler: Setup speculation

If scum are in A, fake cop has a 2/3 chance of being CCed. Tracker is probably a much better fake claim in A, so cop claims are likely real.

If scum are in B, fake cop has a 1/3 chance of being CCed, 0 chance of unintentionally posting a wrong result, and the ability to confuse town. This is probably the best PR for scum to claim. (Neglected: scum may play differently after a lucky N1 rolecop result)

If scum are in C, fake cop has a 1/3 chance of being CCed, 0 chance of unintentionally posting a wrong result, and the ability to confuse town. This is probably the best PR for scum to claim.

Expected number of cop claims if each player is forced to claim (neglected: scum may claim VT or a sub-optimal PR at intent just to be confusing):

T S
A1: 1 0
A2: 0 0
A3: 1 0
B1: 1 2
B2: 0 2
B3: 0 2
C1: 1 0
C2: 0 2
C3: 0 2
Tot: 4 10

Mechanically we shouldn't really believe this claim unless there's evidence of being in A1/A3/B1/C1. We can take lack of JK claim as evidence that A2/B2/C2 are impossible. For the rest of this post I'll assume there's no JK.

Now the expected claims are:

T S
A1: 1 0
A3: 1 0
B1: 1 2
B3: 0 2
C1: 1 0
C3: 0 2
Tot: 4 6

Then it's basically a coinflip +/- reads. If 4 players were confirmed VT though SS would be ~100% town cop

If SS is actually cop

I really don't think it's Oxy+skitter. Oxy+pin? Oxy+ofrhz?? pin+ofrhz?? skitter+ofrhz?? skitter+pin??

... I don't know, I don't think SS is cop.

I HAVENT UNVOTED SCIONESS IS AT L1

Oh pedits

Why not unvote in this pedit though?

[ruru]

Can everyone claim JK or not JK

I'm not JK

[ruru]

i wanna lynch ruru

even more now :')

p.edit. yeah like what the hell

Okay, but can you answer my questions?

If you don't think I'm a cop ruru why did you unvote?

Because I don't know, and I don't want you anywhere near quickhammer right now if you're actually town

[ruru]

How is SS conftown in this setup

[ruru]

I don't know how you tired to figure out those setup but you are wrong.
In A fake cop get cc'd immidiately in all possible rows.
In B fake cop won't get cc'd only in row 3.
In C fake cop won't get cc'ed in row 3 only.

This isn't new information compared to my post, but I did make an unrelated mistake, C1 should be 1+2 not 1+0.

I'm tracker. I tracked skitter and she didn't move.

I knew for a fact we were in column B or C, where a Cop fake claim is more likely, which made me even more skeptical of SS's claim.

pin and Oxy are scum.

VOTE: pinturicchio

[ruru]

VOTE: ruru

[ruru]

xd

[ruru]

[ruru]

I concede

[ruru]

Well I'm bad at the game

[ruru]

I thought we super lost and pin's flip would implicate me regardless of who got lynched first between Oxy/pin

But I guess it could be wifomed as him trying to implicate me

[ruru]

And I was rushing to post something and didn't realize it would lead to game solve

[ruru]

First and last time making those mistakes I hope?

[ruru]

Sorry pin...

[ruru]

ruru was pinging me hard late d1 but I couldn't figure out why

so I made the case and when I was writing it I realized it super bad and it made my doubt if ruru is actually scum but I had to public it becuase well.

Yeah I think my case on you was better than your case on me...

I thought you were a PR on D1 and my post about you self-balancing early D1 was basically because town!me didn't want to out you as a PR

But then you got increasingly objectively scummy I think?

[ruru]

I was RB

[ruru]

Should I have hammered skitter? I really wanted to get towncred and maybe get SS to claim since skitter softed VT, that was my main motivation

[ruru]

Why were people PR reading me btw? I think I thought in my mind that I was VT to the point that I wasn't sure if a tracker claim would be believable if I got L-1

[ruru]

I legitimately believe skitter was being antitown and I only voted drixx for the towncred

[ruru]

How you retreated and didn’t want to confront people as if you didn’t want to attract that much attention, wanting all lurkers to post so you can narrow the field for your night investigation —- stuff like that made me think you were a pr

I'm curious how things will turn out if I roll VT because I do think most of this is personality for me

[ruru]

why did you kill mathdino, though?

His meta thing would make him a really hard to lynch and pin thought he was PR

[ruru]

dino, at one point you said that you had a hard town read on ruru

was that true or just a part of your play at that time

For the record I was super paranoid that you were townreading me as a bluff and just waiting for me to screw up like all game, maybe a bit less over time

[ruru]

Okay, all good points. You did that iso of scioness I didn't want to do. I'm game for whatever direction you want to explore.

Things like this actually made me flip out

[ruru]

If I had posted this would it have gotten me lynched

There is an idea to massclaim VT or not-VT (please do not actually do this now, I'm not sure if it's any good).

The benefit of doing this over claiming roles is that if we're in B3 or C3 then scum can't just shoot the doctor. And I think massclaiming roles is not hugely beneficial unless there's an incriminating investigative result (which it sounds like there isn't today) anyway because scum are going to give whatever info helps them win the game.

If we're in A3 there's no real benefit because of roleblock. If we're in A1/B1/C1 there's also no real benefit.

If 3 players claim VT, we should lynch SS. Then we lynch in the other non-VT claims.
If 4 players claim VT, we are in C1 or one is scum. At least one scum is in the non-VT claims, so we should lynch one of them (probably not SS) giving significantly better than 33% to hit scum.
If 5-6 players claim VT, we are in C1 or two are scum. We should lynch in the VT claims.

I'm not sure if this actually improves our winrate but I don't think it's particularly high right now to begin with having 2 town dead and no red checks? I would like to hear others' thoughts on this

[ruru]

Sorry

[ruru]

I was thinking something along the lines of "omg we lost, the only thing that could save us is a town player claiming 4th PR"

"maybe I should claim 4th PR"

[ruru]

Does it say anywhere how long are days? I kind of want to sign but I don't know how much of a time commitment it would be

Also I don't want to ruin the game by making pin replace out if we both roll scum

[ruru]

I'll play if ofrhz plays

[ruru]

Btw, SS, what was your previous avatar from?

[ruru]

the one with birds? it was just a piece of art, I can like you the artist in a moment.

Yeah it was really pretty

[ruru]

Wow, I love her work

[ruru]

you guys played really well. this setup must be massively town sided

Although I was getting townread at the time until SS outed, I'm not sure if getting townread is the same as playing well though. Like it's a lot easier to get townread if I'm not actually playing toward my wincon? I think that's one of the things I learned from this game. I think there's a lot to improve on even ignoring the losing blunder

If I roll scum in column A again I would need to focus a lot more on defeating PoE and less on trying to act town, because the density of investigatives is too high. The large swing of even one green check is something I didn't really have an intuitive sense of having not really played the game before

Clear (I think) improvement would be just lynching town and ending the day more frequently, even if it makes me look a bit scummy, so that town has less information. I could've hammered skitter, I could've not defended ofrhz, etc.

Less clear improvement would be actively trying to defeat PoE by bussing harder on D2. The thing is we didn't really know there's a cop and it was looking quite likely we were in A2 given that I thought certain cop results probably would have been shared faster (for example, I suspected SS was a PR, and I thought she would have checked me as cop). If we were actually in A2 then risking one of us getting hammered by town would have been pretty throwy but then in A1 we actually have to defeat PoE at all costs.

So, I'm not sure, but in retrospect maybe I should have for example asked pin to put me at L-1 on the early D2 wagon? I think that kind of thing is scary for scum but possibly irrationally scary, especially if we can reasonably predict how certain players will vote. I could softclaim VT and hopefully make a convincing defense. I know Oxy+NSG likely won't vote me in this situation.

3SS townreads skitter, NSG like never votes, and based on his own posts about me I think ofrhz knows I wouldn't hammer skitter in this situation. So she was very likely not getting lynched and he may have known it. Actually probably super +EV for this scumteam for him to vote if they thought it out like that considering the worst case is probably ofrhz goes to lylo with towncred. The only reason I see this as somewhat less likely at this point is that it requires them to think of and agree with the ideas that I'm mentioning here

I'm becoming aware of the strategy in this post I guess but I really overestimated our winrate around the time after skitter stopped scumreading me, so I saw it as a super unnecessary risk and didn't dare try to apply it. I'm still not sure what the right voting strategy would have been on D2

I do feel like A1 at least is hard for scum (but this loss is definitely on me regardless). Or cop in general seems really hard to me, since you don't really have to guess right to get extremely useful information, but the other roles don't do much if you guess wrong I guess?

I feel like we were pretty lucky to block you, like pin was sure you were PR but I was super unconvinced that you weren't bluffing, and you easily could have been so it could have been much worse for us too.

[ruru]

Interesting way to end a game. GG town and Mafia! Both factions played really really good. I hope you guys found my attempt at post break downs helpful.

Thanks for the review!

[ruru]

The Mafia of ruru and pinturicchio has surrendered. The Town has won.

And thanks so much for hosting