Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Not Known 15]

Here are my suspects so far:
Flicker.
Here I am sheeping the case of Oxy against them.
MejiFan.
I don't like their obsession of Nauci; they seem to focused on them. This frequently happens to scum, there is a difference between town tunneling and scum "tunneling" and this looks like the latter.
James Brafin.
James is flip-flopping their votes and they give me a bad feeling.
VOTE: James Brafin

[Not Known 15]

It's the thor-unvote-thor that you're not liking, ya?

Yes, Brafin says

Vote: Thor665
Fairly confident in this.

then

And I'm going to unvote because really, there is no reason for my vote to be where it is right now.
UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,

unvoting the top and only scumread without good explanation, what is the town motivation for this?
"Hey, this one is most sus but I will unvote them!" This is likely scum. Did you ever see a townie act like that?

Then Brafin notices the problem, probably, and tries to fix it one post after that:

Now totally confident this is scum.
VOTE: Thor

the progression does not make sense.
Next is this shit:

A) I didn't do it to be annoying; I did it when I quote lots of stuff to make it easier to read. I'm going to take Irrelephant's advice tho and start just leaving the post number and comments. But regardless, this is a massive misrep and Attack on Person. Not to mention we aren't DISCUSSING stratagem, so I have no idea where that came from.
B) There's also an Attack on Person on Nauci. DDS seems to be trying to make players seem inept and their opinion trivial simply on the grounds that "they are bad posters." While the complaints about her being sick are a tad bothersome, they don't warrant THAT.
C) Aren't YOU discussing stratagem in your post, in your paragraph about NOT discussing stratagem? Besides, we are far beyond that topic. Only YOU are still hung up over it; my reasoning is that Thor could make opinion sound like fact because of his IC role. It is NOT a strat discussion.
D) That was obviously a joke, not a scumslip. He's not "lied multiple times," he's making a humorous statement, and I think you know it. This is a crappy placeholder vote.

A refuses to acknowledge that DDS never said that it was scummy, just annoying; and annoying town is anti-town. A massive misrep is far from that.
B refuses to acknowledge that DDS said that it makes them badly readable and annoying, not necessarily scum. An AOP on these grounds- how is it AI?
C looks really like a misrep. DDS told them that they differ on them on the opinion that IC strat is AI/NAI. Additionally, if Brafin continues to use that as argument, why can't DDS tell them that it is in their opinion invalid?
D jumps on a clarified misunderstanding. Why?

Scumlean:
Thor

How did we get there from

totally confident

?

[Not Known 15]

Am I making a bad assumption? Is scum more likely to come out of the gate arguing that the IC is abusing his position as a way of furthering his scum!IC win con?

Yes. It is easy to make a case about that. Very easy. You just need to discredit the advice.

[Not Known 15]

Voting. I debated sheeping on James but by my informal count

James is already L-2

. VOTE: Meji.

That is correct, but why is this a reason not to vote James to L-1?

[Not Known 15]

Okay, catch-up time.

We'll start with this: What is this shit? First, we have assumption before narrative.

Please explain.

Then, he's sheeping Oxy's EXISTENT case on flicker, but he votes me.

Sheeping something means that I'd be happy to follow that path and basically agree on a case without having any other arguments. Not that I have to vote for it if I have a stronger scumread.

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

This does not add up.

It is blatantly obvious that 1 is a lie

.It was untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, and because of that you unvoted Thor in one post and then,

in the very next post of the game- not just of yours, the game

you voted thor again. This makes me very sure that your

read progression is made up.

You are scum.

Then we have a tactic change, and he goes at me with a chainsaw against DDS.

A chainsaw in itself is null.

A) Let's make something very clear:

WHEN YOU SAY SOMEONE DOES SOMETHING FOR ONE REASON, AND THEY DIDN'T, THAT IS A MISREP.

I was never trying to be annoying, I never phrased my words to make it look like I was trying to be annoying. So yes, it was a misrep, and an AoP to boot. And since when is annoying town anti-town? I have played with town that made me rage (mulch) but they were still town.

If you wouldn't have already claimed scum, I'd ask you to be more precise about what exactly the misrep is.

B) It brings in irrelevant personal information or arguments about the opponent, in an attempt to distract either the opponent or the audience. (From the wiki)
An AoP is ALWAYS scummy, because it tries to make other players look bad based on outside information not relevant to the game.

Except that information is very relevant to the game. The mood state of a player is very valuable information. And it is also not irrelevant when something irritates someone, or hinders their reads. It looks to me like "stop this plz it disrupts the game" and that is valid to say.

C) No one has continued on the topic of IC strategies. since the first page. Where the frick is this coming from? That is NOT my argument.

This is not true:

Gamechanging =/= we should care. We can't actually glean anything from daychat. We can't glean anything from multiball. I personally think that we shouldn't care about that as town.
But that's just my opinion.

D) If he understood that, why did he not move his vote?

No idea- unfortunately we cannot ask them now. However, it was not their only reason for voting Teacher, and they said it was a placeholder.

I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny.


But my scumread on NK15 is so hard it's not even funny. Consider it a death tunnel.
As For flicker, her play isn't any better and then she goes and associates herself with NK15, gets friendly with them, and encourages them. It reads to me as a reminder from NK15's scumbuddy that he's still here and not to vote him. Because honestly, what town wants to be friends with an ABN, chainsaw-defending, bad-argument slot? Combined with the fact that NK voted for

me

with no case on them instead of

Flicker

with a decent case on them, I think I know where our scumteam is.

VOTE: NK15

And watch the flak come in for changing my vote again. But there will be no misrep or confusion on why I did it this time.

Yeah I am not confused why. You want to eliminate strong town.

Just to put the question out there, because I found it suspect, @NK - why did you pressure to L-1 half-way through the day?

It is usually not a good idea to wait until the end for L-1. Also, I thought that Brafin would need more pressure.
In a semi-open, especially, you don't want to wait too long. You need a buffer in the case that the lynch target claims a power role.
You don't lynch a uncounterclaimed power role Day 1. If you wait too long then the lynch against someone else will be rushed, especially because you need to clarify if anyone has a CC. And then there are replacements. This can easily take some days alone.

[Not Known 15]

Any questions?

Yeah. Why is this supposedly scummy?
No, I didn't look in detail why you were scummy yet at that point(except that thor vote trash). My bad feeling when reading your posts was well-justified when I began to read them in detail.

@Not Known

This does not add up.

It is blatantly obvious that 1 is a lie

.It was untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, and because of that you unvoted Thor in one post and then,

in the very next post of the game- not just of yours, the game

you voted thor again. This makes me very sure that your

read progression is made up.

This is simply not true. There were a few posts in between.

Weird. I thought there were none between. I must have read the ISO and then later assumed that.
Yeah I checked it it's not true and my reasoning here is wrong.

[Not Known 15]

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?
Also, a quick notice- IC's are asked not to lie about game theory. This includes their own opinions about game theory.
As a general advice(coming from a SE not an IC) don't ignore the setup. It can change scum behaviour from what you'd expect.

[Not Known 15]

In post 214, James Brafin wrote:

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?

You seem to have missed this question.

[Not Known 15]

I hope you're wrong in your assessment.

I don't think James is scum.

Scum wants to fit in. Scum tells are usually small variations from the mean.

Truly aberrant behavior is far more likely to come from town. (Such as the text formatting)

His meta is stale, but his last scum game had a number of cringe worthy comments.

Things like, "And that let's scum get away scott free!"

I don't see those here. (Yes, he could have gotten better in his time away from the game.)

Much of what he is being scum read for - his pushes and the reasoning behind them - seem like the natural progression from the playstyle he was using the last time he was active, and is not alignment indicative for him.

I still don't get their reasoning for the unvote and for the revote; and my question related to that has not been answered.

Truly aberrant behavior is far more likely to come from town. (Such as the text formatting)

It can be a scum strategy, though(WIFOM). If the player is not aware of its aberrance then it is NAI.

[Not Known 15]

Kay, just skimmed after two busy days. I'm not sure WHAT everyone thinks I softed, but I didn't. I'm a VT. Hammer as you will. My scumteam remains between Flicker and NK15 and maybe Teacher now too for that bullshit soft claim. Lynch if you want, I'm not backing down and I'm sure that both scum are on my wagon. Have a nice day, and I'll do a more thorough catch-up later.

Did not answer my question, despite me repeatedly stating it. Probably has no explanation on how the unvote would help town because it had no town motivation behind it.
They claimed VT.
I request a hammer.

[Not Known 15]

In post 214, James Brafin wrote:

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?

It's better than a random vote with no other information. I hadn't scumhunted at all yet becasue I was so focused on Thor, so I didn't want to place my vote ina place where it would get town lynched or be of no real use.

random vote

Wrong answer.

UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,

Thor as scum-lean

This does not add up.

[Not Known 15]

Gonna return to this bullshit post, if you don't mind.

Then, he's sheeping Oxy's EXISTENT case on flicker, but he votes me.

Sheeping something means that I'd be happy to follow that path and basically agree on a case without having any other arguments. Not that I have to vote for it if I have a stronger scumread.

Why is your scumread stronger on me than Flicker?

Because of your vote/unvote/vote cycle on thor and your motivation behind it.

Then we have a tactic change, and he goes at me with a chainsaw against DDS.

A chainsaw in itself is null.

Chainsaw Defense: The general form of this tell is "a player who defends another player by attacking the other player's attacker is very probably scum". From the wiki. So THAT's bullshit.

The wiki is really outdated. And you should probably look at the whole part in the wiki, not just the first sentence.

A) Let's make something very clear:

WHEN YOU SAY SOMEONE DOES SOMETHING FOR ONE REASON, AND THEY DIDN'T, THAT IS A MISREP.

I was never trying to be annoying, I never phrased my words to make it look like I was trying to be annoying.

So yes, it was a misrep, and an AoP to boot. And since when is annoying town anti-town? I have played with town that made me rage (mulch) but they were still town.

If you wouldn't have already claimed scum, I'd ask you to be more precise about what exactly the misrep is.

It's IN THE FREAKING POST. Jeez.

B) It brings in irrelevant personal information or arguments about the opponent, in an attempt to distract either the opponent or the audience. (From the wiki)
An AoP is ALWAYS scummy, because it tries to make other players look bad based on outside information not relevant to the game.

Except that information is very relevant to the game. The mood state of a player is very valuable information. And it is also not irrelevant when something irritates someone, or hinders their reads. It looks to me like "stop this plz it disrupts the game" and that is valid to say.

Let me get this straight:
It's okay for someone to tell someone they can't post in a certain way because "it's annoying?"

Yes, of course.

C) No one has continued on the topic of IC strategies. since the first page. Where the frick is this coming from? That is NOT my argument.

This is not true:

Gamechanging =/= we should care. We can't actually glean anything from daychat. We can't glean anything from multiball. I personally think that we shouldn't care about that as town.
But that's just my opinion.

I'm sorry, how is A) this discussion of IC strat and B) not still at the beginning of the game?

A) It is, you are attacking one of Thor's game strategy answers.B) This is not the first page, it is page 4; you said the first page.

D) If he understood that, why did he not move his vote?

No idea- unfortunately we cannot ask them now. However, it was not their only reason for voting Teacher, and they said it was a placeholder.

Then what were his other reasons for voting Teacher? Because I sure as heck don't see them.

I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny.


But my scumread on NK15 is so hard it's not even funny. Consider it a death tunnel.
As For flicker, her play isn't any better and then she goes and associates herself with NK15, gets friendly with them, and encourages them. It reads to me as a reminder from NK15's scumbuddy that he's still here and not to vote him. Because honestly, what town wants to be friends with an ABN, chainsaw-defending, bad-argument slot? Combined with the fact that NK voted for

me

with no case on them instead of

Flicker

with a decent case on them, I think I know where our scumteam is.

VOTE: NK15

And watch the flak come in for changing my vote again. But there will be no misrep or confusion on why I did it this time.

Yeah I am not confused why. You want to eliminate strong town.

that's a bold and reachy assumption considering this is your SECOND POST. This is flaily and looking to try and avoid my arguments.

Maybe a bit bold yes. However, posting frequency is not equal to being bad town.

Just to put the question out there, because I found it suspect, @NK - why did you pressure to L-1 half-way through the day?

It is usually not a good idea to wait until the end for L-1. Also, I thought that Brafin would need more pressure.
In a semi-open, especially, you don't want to wait too long. You need a buffer in the case that the lynch target claims a power role.
You don't lynch a uncounterclaimed power role Day 1. If you wait too long then the lynch against someone else will be rushed, especially because you need to clarify if anyone has a CC. And then there are replacements. This can easily take some days alone.

WHAT unCCed claim? WHY did you think I would claim one against your bullshit case? WHAT pressure did you add? L-2 and L-1 don't scare me none, and anyone can iso my games to find that out.

1) My case isn't bullshit.
2)There was the possibility of a fakeclaim or a real claim.
3)

WHY did you think I would claim one against your bullshit case?

looks like a scumslip to me; JB thinks that they don't need to reinforce their position with a fakeclaim. And to answer this: No case without power role info is 100%; you have to factor in that you might be wrong. Lynching someone who is scummy yet a claim Day 1 is generally a bad idea unless someone counterclaims.

4) They don't scare you? I doubt that, you seem to be very defensive.

I'd also like to point out this is a loaded question. If my unvote does not help town more, aha, scum. If it does, however, I'm trying to look like town, aha, scum. Either way, I'm scum.

So let me put it this way: If I unvote, it does not help scum wincon, because it makes me look wishy-washy. But if I leave my vote or shift it to someone else, it does not help scum wincon, becasue there was no viable wagon to join onto and my Thor tunnel was getting scum!me nowhere.

So, what is the advantage for scum!me to unvote, rather than to vote someone else or leave my vote?

You answered it yourself:

becasue there was no viable wagon to join onto and my Thor tunnel was getting scum!me nowhere

If I unvote, it does not help scum wincon, because it makes me look wishy-washy.

Not all vote changes make you look wishy-washy. Lots of people vote and unvote. You gave an explanation for the unvote that you thought to be sufficient(but that was made up). You were caught. That's what happened.

If it does, however, I'm trying to look like town, aha, scum.

I never said that.

[Not Known 15]

@everyone Here are some scummy things Flicker has posted so far. Please engage me on this read.

Spoiler:

Hey, all!

VOTE: James Brafin, partly as a policy lynch because of his posting style, partly because I don't like anyone who has that much confidence on a read this early.

I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS.

VOTE: teacher

Nobody seems eager to follow my James vote, so I'm finally confident enough to put my vote here.

Great. Now more people vote for James? Rude.

I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

None of this makes sense from a town perspective. People are voting someone she is confident is scum, but she doesn't want to move her vote back there, but she considered moving her vote to someone completely different because sheeping.

A) I also read (and still do) Nauci as town.

Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team.

@NK15 you're telling me that THIS is less scummy than your one point about my vote/unvoting?

Your arguments are not good and lied about motivation and gave anti-meta(if you dont care about L-1 normally why do you care now?), so it is not just that one point(but that one point is important). And I have a bad feeling about you and your posts since the time I first looked at the thread. And will trust that.
Flicker is almost as scummy as you. But we should flip you first. Their refusal to vote you points to a possible JB/Flicker team.
There is another reason now why we should not lynch anyone but you: You claimed vanilla townie. If we bring other people to L-1 and a claim we just make PR hunting easier for scum.

I'd like to see some explanation for the vote pattern of flicker, though.

there cant have been a "gut read" because he didn't give himself the opportunity for one

I disagree. He had just come into the game. Presumably, the 3 suspect list came after he had read all of the posts. Thus, I view the list itself as the gutread. This is admittedly my supposition based on timing, but I dont see why its wrong.

This is correct.

[Not Known 15]

Vote James Brafin again.
They already claimed Vanilla Townie.
Did you forget that they lied about their motivation and could not explain why they unvoted there with honesty?:

Spoiler:

In post 214, James Brafin wrote:

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?

It's better than a random vote with no other information. I hadn't scumhunted at all yet becasue I was so focused on Thor, so I didn't want to place my vote ina place where it would get town lynched or be of no real use.

random vote

Wrong answer.

UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,

Thor as scum-lean

This does not add up.

The unvote is terrible.

[Not Known 15]

As of this post, we are at L-2.

[Not Known 15]

Finally, night (no)kill analysis: I dont see a way mafia no kills N-1 unless all the common suspects are way off. Since I find that implausible, I believe we have a doctor. If so, and if (s)he outs, (s)he guarantees his/her death tonight but provides almost game-locking info. Put another way, I am wondering about the following:

• Doctor claim tomorrow through Friday WITHOUT IDENTIFYING SAVE, to see if there are any counterclaims. If cc, narrowed suspect range to two, and other pr does not identify. Even mislynch guarantees scum identified, so at worst game is 4:1 at end of day 3 and most outcomes are likely better than that.
  
• If no cc, doc slot is lock town. On Friday-Sunday, other power role claim still WITHOUT DOCTOR IDENTIFYING SAVE. If cc -- two suspects for the day's lynch. IF a claimaint was saved by doc, scum identified. Even if not, doc can lock-town two spots by identifying save, and any mislynch identifies scum. Again, puts town at worst 4:1 at end of day 3, with two town spots locked.
  
• If, on Sunday, both prs are identified without ccs, we have two spots lock town, and likely 3 (if doctor save not other pr role). D2 mislynch among the remaining 5-6 slots puts town at worst at 5:2 at start of day 3, with at least two and more likely 3 confirmed towns, and one night of work by the cop/tracker/neapolitan).

This probably appears scummy, as it hunts for PR identification. But I dont see how this system doesnt make the game lock town. Its a genuine question whether we should follow it. Show me the flaws (and dont anyone claim until tomorrow/the lack of flaws is confirmed). Definitely want Thor to comment in his IC role.

I think we should make a massclaim. Why do you think we have a doctor? The missing Night Kill?

[Not Known 15]

I think we should all claim Doctor or Not a Doctor first.

[Not Known 15]

Teacher, unvote until we had a massclaim please.

[Not Known 15]

Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?

I see one giant hole in it... there are two roles who can stop a kill, not just one.

[Not Known 15]

The Tracker claim strat worked because in 2/3 tracker setups, there's a protector (doctor/jk) so that it would be a conftown that definitely lived another day.

Now that we know there's almost definitely a protection role, I see no reason not to do THAT.

Like the possible combinations are

Town Jailkeeper and Town Doctor, Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker, Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Town Cop and Town Doctor, Town Neopolitan and Town Doctor, Town Tracker and Town Doctor

and the not-doctor-not-jk roles can safely claim, while the protection roles are the ones that should NOT.

Yeah but if we have a JK how likely is it that the person jailkept was attacked... or were they the attacker??

[Not Known 15]

At this point a massclaim, with three stages should be in order.
First stage: Everyone claims VT or Not VT.
Second stage: The Not VT claims claim their roles.
Third stage: The powerroles tell us their targets.

[Not Known 15]

So I think the theory holds up whether we have a doctor or jailkeeper:
(a) Doctor explained in 369 and 375
(b) Jailkeeper works much the same way:

First, Jailkeepers claim Thur-Friday WITHOUT identifying action. If cc - identify action for info. (if both claim the other, no more info; if one claims a third, mafia third claim could be contradicted if pr, town third claim locks a town slot or reveals 2d mafia) Regardless, lynch among claimants for guaranteed 4:1 with action by alternative power role. If no cc, then confirmed town slot WITHOUT identifying action.

Second, Sat-Sun, if no jailkeeper cc, then other power role claim. If cc - identify action and result for info. At this point, jailkeeper can absolutely identify mafia. IF it is one of the claimants, the claimed result will be wrong. IF it is not one of the claimants, he almost certainly held mafia.

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both). If no claim at all, we know our suspect list is off. IF claims, resolve as per above.

Who agrees or disagrees?

I agree....

I claim Jailkeeper.

[Not Known 15]

Ok. I claimed Jailkeeper.
Next... everyone says "I CC" or "I don't CC"
Tracker or Doctor are NOT counterclaims.

[Not Known 15]

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both).

Wrong - A2 has both.

I don't know what to make of NK15's claim - both the content, or how fast he did it. Thoughts, anyone?

PEdit: I don't see what the utility of a mass "I don't counterclaim" is. I won't be doing it until someone convinces me it's worthwhile.

PEdit2: I also don't see that "I don't counterclaim" is a necessary statement; if one doesn't say anything one way or the other, isn't that also just an "I don't counterclaim?"

(I agree with Irrelephant that the current speed and content of the game is very hard to keep up with right now. )

The problem with no "I don't counterclaim" is a CC tomorrow by someone who was barely active and claims to have "missed" my claim.

[Not Known 15]

For example, I just noticed a possibility that i had not considered, and now need to play out. What if a Jailkeeper claim (we have one) is met by a doctor cc. Have to play that out....Will post when analyzed.

A doctor is NOT a cc to Jailkeeper. Nor is a Tracker.

[Not Known 15]

No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.

We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.

There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.

Your last sentence makes sense. But "clearing NK15" isn't totally possible, is it? Like, we could be in

C1

nope reread it, umm... C3? Yeah, could we be in C3 without a counterclaim and have NK15 still be scum?

Also, I want to follow my town read on Oxy, but can someone verify that this is a good idea? I feel out of my depth.

We can clear me. All what is needed is a massclaim by everyone.

[Not Known 15]

After stewing on this, it wouldn't actually be that much luck? Scum knows which column we're in, so if they have no power roles then, based on last night, they know it's c2 or c3. If neither was jailkept, then they can guess it's a more than 50% chance it's c3. Risky, but the odds are technically in their favor.

Townslip or intentional?
No one knows who was jailkept, except me!

[Not Known 15]

If I am not mistaken then everyone except Thor(and me, of course) did claim Not JK/Cop/Nea. Which means that we have to wait for Thor anyways...

[Not Known 15]

I targeted a possible nightkill.
Thor.

[Not Known 15]

Also, why I claimed...
I wanted to avoid a quicklynch, or a claim at L-1 that wasn't going to be believed. JB(the only confirmed town at the start of Day 2) named me as their top scumread.

[Not Known 15]

What made you think he was a likely nk target?

1. IC.
2. They were not suspected (anymore).
3. They were helpful for the town discussion, asking good and intelligent questions.

[Not Known 15]

I thought it best to see what was going to come out claims wise, first.

I like your fos on meji more than I like your fos on teacher. Why did you decide to vote teacher and not Meji?

James Brafin (5)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 , Not Known 15 , teacher , Oxy , L-0

Thor is saying that one of the people who voted James were scum.
What do you think of that, Oxy?

Thor, why do you think it is likely, given how the lynch happened, that there is scum on the wagon at the final votecount?

[Not Known 15]

Correct save for doctor is to save someone. It sounds like a joke, but it's not. It's correct from a beyesian perspective to save the JK claim some percentage of the time and to save outside the JK claim some percentage of the time.

If we have a doctor and we lynch the roleblocker they should be on me with 100% probability

[Not Known 15]

Penultimate Votecount Day 1(a bit more than 3 days left)

James Brafin

(4)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 , Not Known 15 , Flicker , L-1
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,
Meji Fan (2)teacher , Oxy ,<---- counter wagon to town

Not Known 15

(1)James Brafin ,

Final Votecount Day 1(less than 3 days left):

James Brafin

(5)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 ,

Not Known 15

, teacher , Oxy , L-0
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,<---lone vote, not absent, no vote change, against JB lynch but not offering alternatives.

Scum

?

Not Known 15

(1)

James Brafin

,
Not Voting (1)Flicker ,<------Not voting this close to deadline, and not voting Meji; unvoted Brafin because they "didn't scumread them anymore" and didnt vote counterwagon that was at L-3(Meji) at that time. But at that time the lynch seemed inevitable without a push on a major wagon. Maybe hiding scum that wanted to evade VCA?.

Scum

?

Meji is at L-2 currently.

With my hard pushing as town vs town(Brafin) Mafia might not have needed to vote on Brafin.
And with Meji being the last counterwagon it would be very interesting to see what they were.

[Not Known 15]

Do NOT vote until Teacher and Meji have presented their cases, please.

[Not Known 15]

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere.

The way I read this is, you're saying that NK15

didn't

jailkeep Thor last night, because "he went nowhere" is a different result than "I couldn't see his actions (if any)." I don't see how this (or any of your other arguments) makes Thor guaranteed scum. Could you clarify this, please?

Huh? Jailkeepers prevent kills. Not other actions.

[Not Known 15]

I want to see Meji being lynched now more than ever. Their behaviour Day 1 was really sketchy.
They were the last counterwagon to James Brafin. They refused to lead or push for any other wagon in the light of a supposed town read, James, being lynched. They signed disapproval but nothing more. Why would town be so passive when they see a mislynch incoming? They likely are not town. It would help a lot if we could flip them.

[Not Known 15]

Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off?

I do want this to be answered though.

[Not Known 15]

As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.

Actually... no. The claim is not Town-alignment indicative in itself. If I am the only power role then one of the scum can easily claim tracker without fear. You are the IC, why don't you know this stuff?

[Not Known 15]

Ok here are my thoughts... we lynch Meji. They are scummy. They are lurky. If they are scum we are in a good position.
If they are town then we won't have them hanging around in LYLO. If they are town then BOTH wagons at the end of Day 1 were on town. That is important information.
There was some speculation about 1 scum on and 1 scum off wagon. Yet we should not act towards that WIFOM; it could be easily otherwise... and even if it is 1 scum and 1 town we should count flicker towards on wagon because they only jumped off when the lynch seemed inevitable. Which leaves few people offwagon... one of them Meji with the classical hiding behaviour.
I plan to jailkeep Thor if they are scum. If not then both me and Teacher have to try to find the killing scum.
Teacher will not announce their targets either way. I won't if Meji is town.

[Not Known 15]

I looked at the case and the reasoning of Teacher.
VOTE: Thor665
plan change:
If Thor is scum I will jailkeep Meji. If someone dies Meji is cleared. Teacher will not announce their target because that isn't needed.
If Thor is town then both Teacher and me have to look for someone, without coordination - we can't let scum know who we target.

[Not Known 15]

You think that at least one scum is on the wagon.


Yes.

It is the most likely option...
...but you treat it as an absolute truth.
Not as rebuttable assumption.
Why?

[Not Known 15]

Why should I not treat it as truth right now?
What rebuttal exists to the idea exactly?

There is a possibility that all scum votes off wagon. It happens.
If all your scumreads point off wagon, and none on wagon...
how likely is it that all scum are off the wagon?

[Not Known 15]

2 things that make Thor scummy
1.

I'm almost tempted to post a rebuttal to the teacher case on me just because multiple people are claiming it makes sense.

Excuse me? Any town should say "I will post a rebuttal shortly" not that what thor wrote there. This looks like hastily typed by panicking scum under pressure.

2.
The VOTES.
Meji and Thor avoid voting each other like the plague, even in this vote situation(especially Meji avoiding to vote thor). It is likely that they are scumpartners.

[Not Known 15]

1. I don't think that makes any sense and comes with no backing or reasoning. (this also ignores that I did actually post up a rebuttal...but,

you are trying to ignore a lot this game for reasons that escape and frustrate me.

I added the underline and the boldness.

Because this is EXTREMELY SCUMMY.

...On day 1 I was mostly focused on giving reasons for a james lynch and you agreed with a james lynch and did not attack my presumptions. This looks highly scummy;

I distill that Thor thought that my Day 1 reasons were bullshit to them and instead of calling me out they did nothing against it and sheeped bullshit

. Can that come from town? I doubt that very much.

@Elephant please hammer.

2. I also avoided voting you - are we scumbuddies? I've actually not voted most of the game.

... I told you that it is mostly Meji. Meji implicates you. However; I was never voted to L-1 and ignored a counterwagon I assessed as scummy. Which is what both you and Meji did for each other. You kept pointing to others. Meji pointed to Nauci and you and then proceeded with Nauci who had no other votes instead you who had more.

[Not Known 15]

If Meji implicates me, why are you lynching me before Meji exactly? Am I scum if Meji isn't?

You being town would erase that implication that also implicates themselves if you are scum
If you are scum then we can catch every possible partner via power roles and lynch.
If Meji is scum and we lynch them tomorrow we have a much smaller pool of suspects if you are town.
If you and Meji are town we lose anyways..., unless, of course either me or teacher catch scum tonight. Especially if I catch scum.

@Elephant yeah please don't hammer asap, that was an overreaction.

[Not Known 15]

Or Meji likes someone else better than Meji likes Thor and thinks the Thor case is very Mathemagical

Meji, you are lurking and not following the discussion well. This is not just about math.
Stop lurking.

[Not Known 15]

If we failed to read thor correctly and they are town, and I die:
Pressure Nauci, Meji, and Flicker and don't stop until they brought enough evidence and discussion into this game. Until then, do not pressure anyone else. Do not forget the case by thor on oxywhen you have time. Follow the leads of Teacher.

[Not Known 15]

The whole thing on Thor started with the math exercises

Yes, and then additional evidence was uncovered, even if the math case was exaggerated: The additional evidence still stands.

[Not Known 15]

Fine, point me at what post your awesome reasoning on why Thor is scum is in without resorting to mathemagic is in and I'll reread it

No that is not what I will be doing. What

you

will do

right now

is to

read every single post of the game in detail

. Which you should have already done.

[Not Known 15]

I have read them. I've even made posts with post numbers. Later.

Then read post 586 again. Including the spoiler.
And most importantly... post more. Show us all your reads on everybody alive. Show us the reasons for your reads. Stop lurking!

[Not Known 15]

Okay, teacher 586

First, 586 is not when teacher had their great reveal, which is 511, and is an absolute combination of Mathemagic and NK analysis on the great 'why not elephant' WIFOM

I note in 576 Nauci just votes Thor mid wagon with no particular reasoning
577 teacher wants to vote me for reasons above
Nauci 579-580 discusses the game, but not Thor wagon

Now we get to teacher 586
teacher still likes me, and there case on Thor (now that we have gotten past the Mathemagic) is mostly trying to link me and Thor, if I'm town that is pretty silly, if I'm lock scum why note just vote me? Either way its a silly way to go about Thor

And in 588 I point out that Nauci fits just as well as a friend to Thor as I do (better even, notice that Thor is often Nauci's dance partner in a lot of the day 1 silliness where Nauci posted a ton without doing much useful with it)

And then 589 . . . teacher unvotes?

And teacher says 'will sheep nk'.

I don't have a lot of faith in that case no. Who unvotes from their favored lynch right after they post their case on why it is there favored lynch?

Also Nauci is on the Thor wagon, does not make me happy with it either

Note teacher 611 unvote and 615 vote is based on the possibility theres a Meji-Flicker wagon?

teacher 627 - Meji would be the case without associatives? The associatives work just as well on Nauci

Now, Nauci is voting Thor, but considering the real weak way Nauci is voting Thor it wouldn't be hard for them to turn to someone else if the tide turns away from Thor

Hmmmm.... the way I read this you are more deflecting that someone else could be scum with Thor than trying to exonerate thor. However, after scum Thor dies we can check more than one person; I can jailkeep someone(I will jailkeep you) and a kill will then make my target confirmed town. Teacher can also confirm someone as town after a scum lynch if there is a kill and they are alive.

[Not Known 15]

Nauci chose to lurk out of the game, it seems. The game is getting more and more stale.

At this point continuing the day has not enough benefits, but it will just make town more lurky.
Let's end the day and hammer Thor.

Plan recap:
Thor scum-> I jailkeep Meji and Teacher tracks someone else. Those people are confirmed town when a kill happens.
Thor town-> I jailkeep someone and Teacher tracks someone.
If Thor is town and I die then focus on Meji Nauci and Flicker to get reads on them, but do not forget Oxy and the case of Thor on them. Follow Teacher and their leads.

[Not Known 15]

I want to give Nauci 24 hours after the prod to post something substantial or replace before hammering. That's less than an hour from now. Y'all could try to relax until then.

A replacement will not help us right now. In fact avoiding the replacement by hammering right now would probably be the better idea.
This would allow Nauci to get more time to catch up. If that doesn't happen next day they can be replaced and enough time will be left. But a replacement is always bad.

[Not Known 15]

I'm going to flip town.

I doubt that.
But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.

[Not Known 15]

Tracking is going to be interesting

if he flips town

. For example, I cant decide if NK is likely to go to the deep or shallow end of the PoE pool. Looking at associatives makes (Nauci Elephant Flicker) the richest. I wonder if I should go there, or assume NK will. Conversely, going off scummiest, the richest is (Meji, Nauci, Flicker). Knowing both those facts though makes Oxy tempting. Enough for now....I dont think there is much to be gained from this exercise. Really hoping this is a scum flip!

Good luck everyone tonight.

I'm going to flip town.

I doubt that.

But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.

You two, and I know for a fact one of you is town, ARE TUNNELED BLIND.
Holy cow.
Get out of the tunnel and communicate with people functionally - especially in twilight.

@NK - Teahcer's plans and reads have been TERRIBLE stop advising everyone to "trust" him.
He's not confirmed, and his reads haven't shown quality, so what are they supposed to trust him on exactly?

This pains my soul, get used to being wrong, it happens all the time in Mafia, the important thing is not to double down on wrong.

This does not convince me at all to change my plan. It seems like we have just different reads on everybody. And I trust mine more because of your "min 1 scum in wagon" deathtunneling.

[Not Known 15]

Yeah everyone's townread number 1(except teacher);(and this includes the IC Thor) was

scum

; that was bad.
Dunno what we should have done to see

that...

.
With no nightkill Night 1 and a power role Nightkill Night 2 there was no whyarentyoudead WIFOM either.

[Not Known 15]

why did you jail teacher?

teacher was right about what they said. About my motivation and so on.
Lesson learned at least wait a bit more before claiming JK even if you are under fire.


I'd like to see the thoughts of the IC about this result here.