Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

Okay, first of all, I'm not an oxe.

from wiktionary,

oxe c - an ox; a neutered bovine bull, typically used as a beast of burden

[Oxy]

Thanks <3

[Oxy]

This game looks like a ton of fun

There was some stuff about tracker claims (i'm not a fan)

Then there was some stuff about formatting (I prefer not-walls)

And then the walls began, and I stopped reading. I doubt I'll ever read them.

Can someone give me a tl;dr for anything game relevant that has occured?

[Oxy]

So I have a theory that I want some other eyes on: What if Thor and JB are scum together? Itw ould explain some early weirdness.
[snip]
tl;dr It just kinda feels like they're disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing, not because either one thinks the other could be scum.

Obviously, odds are I'm wrong. But man, wouldn't it be fun if I called it day 1 my first game? Any thoughts?

I did read this one tho, and the elephant is town.

[Oxy]

Greetings all. I am travelling through Sunday so have less time to quote and comment than I would like. Certainly looks like at least some will be active chatters, which is helpful for outing information - something that always helps town. I also like the RVS.

VOTE: nauci

Its an RVS for me, and one I am doubting, because of the silence so far. But there it is anyways. Happy weekend everyone.

UNVOTE: nauci

Still travelling though tomorrow night USA time so will be brief. My vote was knowing it would be L-2. I figured it would either prompt some mafia to bandwagon or to speak up in defence if he was maf. Neither really happened though James did speak. As for silence, that’s what I meant - not Nauci but others not defending him or creating another wagon.

Look forward to reading tomorrow.

OK, so a number of people (Nauci 65, Irrelephant 64; James 45; Flickr 57; Meji 40) have questioned my voting pattern. For me, it was a question of LA/vacationing.

Initial vote

: I voted knowing it was L-2, to force info on whether anyone would bandwagon or defend. Then again, I could be accused of wagonning myself. I explained this in 59, and it remains the same.

Unvote

: TBH, I was a little drunk on vacation. I thought 24 hours had passed since my initial vote. I hadnt seen any information come from that vote, and the publication of an actual vote count made it less likely to come after that. Turns out my drunk self was wrong on time and less had passed than I thought, though there was a votecount. My unvote was also partially a reaction to Meji 40 and Flickr 57 questioning my vote (Nauci 65 is correct on that). Basically I decided the vote wasnt helping get more information and was hurting me.

I dont blame people for being suspicious of me because I was so inactive. I hope the detailed and content based post 66 helps with that. But theres my explanation FWIW. BTW, as an out of game comment in case it doesnt get said elsewhere, good luck with your medical issues Nauci.

looked at teacher iso

I can see why someone might scum read him

He's super LAMIST-y, but he's new so that's NAI

And his first reads post on everyone is looking at associations, which is probably bad!town, but that post, and like the 8 that follow are also town.

[Oxy]

oooops, sorry quotes

[Oxy]

james brafin is town - this is absurd argument for scum to be making against an IC if they know it is false.

And the case is absolutely without merit.

[Oxy]

I know it's easy to let scum hide when everyone is screaming at each other over dumb things

but Flicker is scum and should be the lynch today

[Oxy]

VOTE: Flicker

[Oxy]

@Nauci - I wish you all the best with regards to your health issues =(

But I have no idea how to read someone in pain, and/or on heavy pain meds, either =/

This would be a good slot to solve mechanically.

Other thoughts:
Thor has been under a lot of nonsensical pressure, which makes it difficult to read him (one defends bad cases similarly as both town and scum because, well, they are bad.)

meji's few posts don't ping well with me, but i need more

and I guess we're looking for a player for golden's slot.

Deadline is in 6 days, so we've got some work to do here, folks.

[Oxy]

Why'd you read some walls and not others?

I'm only so much of a masochist~~

When I asked for a tl;dr, I was hoping to interact with someone then.

But since no one was up, I did look through a few isos

[Oxy]

@everyone Here are some scummy things Flicker has posted so far. Please engage me on this read.

Spoiler:

Hey, all!

VOTE: James Brafin, partly as a policy lynch because of his posting style, partly because I don't like anyone who has that much confidence on a read this early.

I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS.

VOTE: teacher

Nobody seems eager to follow my James vote, so I'm finally confident enough to put my vote here.

Great. Now more people vote for James? Rude.

I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

None of this makes sense from a town perspective. People are voting someone she is confident is scum, but she doesn't want to move her vote back there, but she considered moving her vote to someone completely different because sheeping.

A) I also read (and still do) Nauci as town.

Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team.

[Oxy]

In post 120, Flicker wrote:
I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

None of this makes sense from a town perspective. People are voting someone she is confident is scum, but she doesn't want to move her vote back there, but she considered moving her vote to someone completely different because sheeping.

Looking back again, she didn't think james was particularly scummy. On first glance that makes this less scummy, but it also brings up another question. Why did she explain her vote switch by saying, "since nobody wants to follow my vote"? That makes it sound as if she is happy with lynching james, but just can't get the support. And if that's the case, town would have pushed the read.

[Oxy]

Also, are walls just long posts? What constitutes a wall? If it is long posts, since we don't have many pages of posts, why not just read the long posts as if they're multiple posts? You can just pretend everyone's double posting and we have 14 pages for you to read

I enjoy reading, so this isn't about being lazy.

Your average mafiascum player isn't a professional writer, and people tend to use ten sentences where they could have used one.

Additionally, when people aren't trying to be concise, they often include the weakest aspects of their arguments. This gives scum more things to latch onto and pick apart.

Can you quote me a couple of things from Flicker's ISO that you think are most likely to come from town rather than scum?

[Oxy]

@Not Known 15

I like the first two on your list.

Am I making a bad assumption? Is town more likely to come out of the gate arguing that the IC is abusing his position as a way of furthering his scum!IC win con?

And then to have this vote order? Nauci, unvote, thor, unvote, thor, dds?

It's the thor-unvote-thor that you're not liking, ya?

[Oxy]

oh, yeah, and welcome to the game!

[Oxy]

@Not Known 15

I like the first two on your list.

Am I making a bad assumption? Is

scum

more likely to come out of the gate arguing that the IC is abusing his position as a way of furthering his scum!IC win con?

And then to have this vote order? Nauci, unvote, thor, unvote, thor, dds?

It's the thor-unvote-thor that you're not liking, ya?

ebwop: correction bolded.

[Oxy]

That is a wall I am happy to read.

I would also like to hear an explanation for James' progression on Thor.

[Oxy]

@Elephant

A) Assuming they are both scum, mentioning the policy lynch allows for easy distancing without much risk, and gives Flicker an easy reason to back away if that wagon picks up steam "I was mainly voting for policy, but I think he's probably town."
Assuming James is not scum, discussing a policy lynch is a great way of looking pro-town without actually having to be pro-town.

B) Here she over explains her vote - "Here is my reason for unvoting. Here is my reason for choosing my next vote." This is also apparent in the first post when she discusses sheeping someone, just to tell us that she isn't comfortable doing that.

C) I agree it's a joke. There are no jokes in mafia. She has a better spot for her vote now, and that's fine. But what is the motivation to remind us that she had her vote there once before, and then to explicitly address why she's not moving it back at that moment?

D) I agree with you, generally, about both sheeping and compromising on lynches as town. However, this is another example of Flicker being overly self-aware of her vote.

E)

[snip]
I was feeling a conflicted null about Nauci, but something about the in-and-out of the hospital and on powerful meds info, and continuing to play through that, makes me think she's town? If she was mafia it seems like those would be more of an issue.
[snip]
I've been thinking of scum teams already, too. After reading teacher's analysis the first time, I thought it might be you and Nauci. But, my reads changed before I posted again, so it wasn't worth mentioning. It's barely worth mentioning now, except to say that I don't think that having a scum team theory is scummy.

You're right, I misread the first part of this post, and thought she was still calling Nauci "conflicted null" at this point.

[Oxy]

Hm, so quoting things I like from Flicker might be hard, 'cause some of her posts are long and have complicated shapes. I'm just gonna link and point things out.

57 and 81 show real hunting to me, trying to parse out various players' alignments and not misrepresenting anyone's words to push for a bad lynch.
76 is a good explanation, and helped me see Thor/JB more clearly. Not something I expect from scum who doesn't care mabout my theory if it doesn't affect them?

Mmmmm and then there's a lot of stuff that, without knowing other players' alignments, is hard to nail down. Still, her casual tone, her consistent working out of analyses (as opposed to useless words), etc. make me feel good. I think most of it actually has to do with just not seeing th e scumminess of the things you pointed to? More to come on that in a few.

Thanks for this. I'm in agreement on your premises, but not on your conclusion so much. I think this is all probably in AvgNewbie's scum range.

[Oxy]

Definitely true, I hunt primarily by looking at relationships rather than individual actions alone. Missing why bad!town. Pls explain.

If that strategy works for you, then more power to you. =)

I think most players will tell you that trying to judge associations prior to seeing any flips is less effective than sorting players by individual play.

[Oxy]

@Flicker
Could you give me a brief description of your current read on James?

Also, what brought my slot from town lean to null?

[Oxy]

Teacher, do you have stats on players talking directly to another player?

If so, how many players has thor spoken directly to?

[Oxy]

and to whom has he spoken the least?

I'm assuming you would have done this by slot rather than player (if you've done it at all)

[Oxy]

Yeah, okay, thanks mate.

[Oxy]

Thanks for this. I'm in agreement on your premises, but not on your conclusion so much. I think this is all probably in AvgNewbie's scum range.

What's missing between the premises and conclusion? Town-like actions --> Townish read, no? Put another way, what about my list points toward "AvgNewbie's scum" rather than town?

I just wrote a whole bunch. Moving it into a nother post

Nothing in your list points towards scum.

But I don't think those posts come significantly more often from town than from scum.

Take 76 - You said this was more likely to come from town because scum wouldn't really care about your theory since it didn't involve them.

I agree that this can come from a town motivation and perspective, but I think that scum!AvgNewbie can also make this post easily.

[Oxy]

What do you think of JB after NK15's recent response to you?

I'll answer this after we get the post James promised us yesterday.

[Oxy]

Thanks, James. I've got a couple follow-up questions.
1) Could you please explain why you go from the first quote to the second quote? (emphasis mine)

I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny.

But my scumread on NK15 is so hard it's not even funny. Consider it a death tunnel.

As For flicker, her play isn't any better and then she goes and associates herself with NK15, gets friendly with them, and encourages them. It reads to me as a reminder from NK15's scumbuddy that he's still here and not to vote him. Because honestly, what town wants to be friends with an ABN, chainsaw-defending, bad-argument slot? Combined with the fact that

NK voted for me with no case on them instead of Flicker with a decent case on them, I think I know where our scumteam is.

2) Could you please tell me what you believe the phrase ABN means, and why it applies to NK's argument? I think I'm probably being dense here, but please humor me.

[Oxy]

ebwop: I should have clarified; the first quote refers to Thor's slot.

[Oxy]

Sorry (maybe) for multipost

@James You might consider this part of Teacher's question, but I want to make sure you address it. How, and on which slot, has Flicker shown overconfidence?

[Oxy]

@James Yeah, I have a question. Why is him scum reading and voting you for something, and then explaining that something, scummy?

@Not Known

This does not add up.

It is blatantly obvious that 1 is a lie

.It was untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, and because of that you unvoted Thor in one post and then,

in the very next post of the game- not just of yours, the game

you voted thor again. This makes me very sure that your

read progression is made up.

This is simply not true. There were a few posts in between.

[Oxy]

Quote spoiled to save space

Spoiler:

Then we have a tactic change, and he goes at me with a chainsaw against DDS.
A) Let's make something very clear:

WHEN YOU SAY SOMEONE DOES SOMETHING FOR ONE REASON, AND THEY DIDN'T, THAT IS A MISREP.

I was never trying to be annoying, I never phrased my words to make it look like I was trying to be annoying. So yes, it was a misrep, and an AoP to boot. And since when is annoying town anti-town? I have played with town that made me rage (mulch) but they were still town.
B) It brings in irrelevant personal information or arguments about the opponent, in an attempt to distract either the opponent or the audience. (From the wiki)
An AoP is ALWAYS scummy, because it tries to make other players look bad based on outside information not relevant to the game.
C) No one has continued on the topic of IC strategies. since the first page. Where the frick is this coming from? That is NOT my argument.
D) If he understood that, why did he not move his vote?

I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny.

@Oxy,

A) Ignoring the "partly as a policy lynch", since it's obvious (to me atleast) that that wasn't really the main reason for her vote - it was JB's high confidence that he'd found scum so early, which I also thought was bad.

B)As someone with scum reads on both Teacher and JB, I totally understand doing her best to vote whichever one it seems like town is voting for. Like, enough townies do have to agree at some point, so this doesn't seem to say much for her either way

C) Said in 120 (the same post) that "Now more people vote for James?" was a joke.

D) I feel like I read somewhere on the wiki that copying your towniest read's vote (that's what sheeping is, yes?) is sometimes good strategy? Because if you can get a majority group who are definitely town voting together, the odds of hitting town are much lower than random. Idk, since she didn't actually sheep I don't see your problem with it. What would be the scum motivation for staying on Teacher, or for mentioning-but-then-not sheeping Nauci?

E) "Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team." huh? not seeing this. Or knowing what it means. In fact if anything it seems Flicker has been kind of weirdly consistently confident that Nauci is town all game. What are you saying here?

I would like to point out that don't you think it's weird that Flicker has been that confident on a slot that is rather null? I feel like that's a bit scum-aligned from Flicker; she doesn't like that I'm confident, but then has this weird confidence going on herself, and hers has little basis.

@James I just want to clarify one more time. The line that I have bolded and underlined for clarity, "I want this lynched so bad it's not even funny," is not referencing the discussion of Thor directly above it.
It is directed at the case on NK15 that you lay out towards the end of your post, after discussing Irrelephant's quote and her read on Flicker.

Is that correct?

[Oxy]

Oxy: Yes.

Nauci: I am afraid, good lady, that we are never going to get along.

Do you think that Nauci is the only person who scum hunts by first getting a gut read, and then building a case?

I'm not arguing as to effectiveness, but I think a lot of people probably build cases that way regardless of their alignment.

Or do you specifically believe that NK15 would not build a case that way as town?

[Oxy]

I don't think anyone should claim unless someone has given intent to hammer.

Also, anyone who quick hammers will be death tunneled by me D2.

[Oxy]

if you think he is scum, you should just put him at L-1.

[Oxy]

Oh, hell, I'll put him at L-1, then.

This feels like half of an if, then statement.

e.g., "Oh, hell, if ..., then I'll put him at L-1."

What was the if clause?

[Oxy]

Okay, that makes sense.

But why is your voting decision influenced by teacher's reluctance?

Also, the "Oh, hell," makes it sound like his reluctance frustrates you.

Why does it frustrate you that he is being reluctant?

[Oxy]

I hope you're wrong in your assessment.

I don't think James is scum.

Scum wants to fit in. Scum tells are usually small variations from the mean.

Truly aberrant behavior is far more likely to come from town. (Such as the text formatting)

His meta is stale, but his last scum game had a number of cringe worthy comments.

Things like, "And that let's scum get away scott free!"

I don't see those here. (Yes, he could have gotten better in his time away from the game.)

Much of what he is being scum read for - his pushes and the reasoning behind them - seem like the natural progression from the playstyle he was using the last time he was active, and is not alignment indicative for him.

[Oxy]

I still don't get their reasoning for the unvote and for the revote; and my question related to that has not been answered.

This is still a fair question, and I don't have an answer. I do have another question, though.

If town is feeling this slow, inevitable march towards a lynch,

And no other wagon is gaining traction,

What are the chances we're on scum?

This game reeks of sit back and watch town beat itself!

[Oxy]

@Oxy: You make a good point about the lack of arguments (or counter-wagons pushed) against James' lynch. Would you like me to unvote? I'd also consider switching my vote to where you are, if you weren't voting for me.

My preferred lynch pool today includes You, Meji, and Nauci. In that order.

[Oxy]

@teacher Let me side track you for a second - talk to me briefly about your NK15 read.

[Oxy]

Okay, thought maybe you had seen something spicy from him.

At two separate points I have misread posts of hers. I was her strongest scumread, but she didnt pull a James and put MISREP in bolded red caps.

I could argue this is more playstyle indicative than anything else, but let's save it.

How about a Meji wagon?

In addition to points brought up already in this thread,

If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.

Meji stated that they think James is town

but didn't do anything to try to defend him, or push a different read.

VOTE: Meji Fan

p.edit I am not responsible for your vote, nor do I really want to coach my top scum read on where to put her vote? I believe you are currently voting town. Do with that information as you see fit! =)

[Oxy]

@Thor

Plenty of room on this Meji Wagon, and you get your choice of sparkling or mineral water!

[Oxy]

I agree with that.
The problem is you're basically going 'hey, Thor, unvote the person you want lynched who has lots of votes, and join us on this person you want lynched with far fewer votes!"
To which the obvious reply is - 'why?'

Why should you switch wagons? I made two posts with reasons why I don't think James is scum.

As far as I can tell, you're voting him for unvoting you.

Is that the gist of your scum read on him, or is there more that you could talk about?

Or can you discuss my thoughts on James' slot?

[Oxy]

I disagree with your town read - would you really like a blow by blow disagreement of it?

Sure, if you've got the time. =)

[Oxy]

It's rather intimidating to see how proficiently you can debate something even when you put little to zero thought into it.

e.g., You nearly had me convinced that there was a similar chance of 0-1 town being on James wagon regardless of his alignment

until I went back and ran the numbers, and realized that if there are 2 scum total, and 1 of them were james, then there would be 100% chance of 0-1 scum being on his wagon. ;P Do you think it is likely that both scum are currently voting for James?

---

To your question of fitting in, I should have been clearer. I meant the variation from their mean. And this text formatting is not a minor variation from James' mean. It's a large one.

---

What cringe worthy comments has he made this game?

---

Aggressively pushing numerous people based on some theoretical understanding of what is and what isn't scummy (e.g., Appeal to authority, assumption before narrative, etc.) is the basis of his game regardless of alignment. It's more toned down here than it was the last time he was active, but this is his playstyle. I think most people are scum reading him for that rather than his unequal application of tells.

But if you point me to what you're referencing in this game, I'll see if I have something exactly analogous from his meta.

Have you looked through his meta?

---

---

You're right, it could be a playstyle tell from Meji. No, I have not researched Meji. Meji is a very compromise wagon for me. I don't think Meji looks townie, and there is very little from them, overall. No one seems interested in wagoning my top scum read, and I don't want James to get through as the wagon of inevitability, so I'm willing to put my resources into better sorting Meji.

[Oxy]

Okay, thanks Thor. I appreciate you going through an exercise you felt was a waste of time for my benefit.

If you would like any of those questions answered, feel free to repeat them. Otherwise, I'm going to disengage.

[Oxy]

@James I think it's much more likely that there is one in {Flicker, NK15} than two.

Are you town reading Meji?

[Oxy]

I would like you to address why you meta-dove James and no one else though.

I've done some very brief poking around in a few people's game history.

James is on the chopping block today, which prioritizes him for sorting.

You asked me specifically about Meji Fan earlier, and I did consider reading her games

But this is her first game since 2011, so I didn't bother.

[Oxy]

Okay, maybe he is scum. I like nothing out of you so far today, James.

[Oxy]

If he flips scum Flicker partner makes a lot of sense.

Gonna think about it over dinner, but I might be the hammer tonight

[Oxy]

Anyone else notice how Flicker is answering the case by James, her scum read, as if she were talking to town?

It's not, "You suck, you're argument is disingenuous and wrong because..."

It's, "Hey, let me help you understand."

[Oxy]

Vote James Brafin again.
They already claimed Vanilla Townie.
Did you forget that they lied about their motivation and could not explain why they unvoted there with honesty?:

Spoiler:

In post 214, James Brafin wrote:

I waffled on Thor for two reasons:
1) My vote was helping no one where it was. It was just as untownie to leave it on a useless wagon, when I could be helping town.
2) Other than his "opinions as fact" stuff, there's really not that much hard evidence against Thor on a reread. I got Confbiased on him tho and voted him anyways. I'm beginning to lean town for him now.

1) Except that you did replace it with an unvote. How does an unvote help town more than a vote?

It's better than a random vote with no other information. I hadn't scumhunted at all yet becasue I was so focused on Thor, so I didn't want to place my vote ina place where it would get town lynched or be of no real use.

random vote

Wrong answer.

UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,

Thor as scum-lean

This does not add up.

The unvote is terrible.

I was getting kind of paranoid of scum!NK, but this is town

[Oxy]

VOTE: James

[Oxy]

If this flips scum, lynch, in this order: Flicker, Nauci, NK15, Thor
If this flips town, lynch, in this order: Meji, NK15, Flicker, Nauci
Never lynch elephant, teacher

[Oxy]

yeah, that "I think he's town but im not going to lift a finger to stop it" is scum more often than not.

[Oxy]

If this flips scum, lynch, in this order: Flicker, Nauci, NK15, Thor
If this flips town, lynch, in this order: Meji, NK15, Flicker, Nauci
Never lynch elephant, teacher

How do I look questionable if James flips scum but not if he flips town?

You're my fourth lynch suggestion in one world, and you missed the cut for my lynch suggestion in the other.

I think it's pretty obvious that I'm town leaning you, but not enough to say "never lynch this."

and it's more that I think Meji looks less scummy in a world where James flips town.

[Oxy]

and it's more that I think Meji looks less scummy in a world where James flips

scum

.

ebwop

[Oxy]

fun playing with you james.

[Oxy]

Okay. Good job whoever stopped the kill.

Thor I'm glad we have an IC still around.
@Could you please walk us through your IC opinion on mass claiming vs other strategies for this particular situation? Could you also talk about lynching vs no lynching after a no kill? <3

@teacher my only issues with your plan are a) it sounds like it would take a lot more time than a simple mass claim strat, and I'm not sure how many days of this D2 we want to waste on the claiming process, and b) I'm not 100% that mass claim is correct in a world where we are in column c of the setup. I want to hear from Thor first.

[Oxy]

we already have a claim, teacher. If you have a pr that directly contradicts NK being a jailkeeper, claim it or forever hold your peace. I think everyone else should stfu until people do that or say they arent claiming.

[Oxy]

obviously, I am not cc'ing the JK

[Oxy]

No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.

We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.

There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.

[Oxy]

this shit is scummy as fuck, teacher + flicker. Just saying.

[Oxy]

To make it easy.

If you are the cop, the neapolitan, or the jailkeeper, please counter claim.

If you are not the cop, the neapolitan, or the jailkeeper, please say, "I do not cc"

[Oxy]

Yes, they are counterclaims to the JK

[Oxy]

cop and neapolitan are CC's because there is no setup with cop + JK or Nea + JK

[Oxy]

first instinct is flicker's dumb tell is fake, but it could be a legit town tell

[Oxy]

not doctor. Doctor is not a cc.

Flicker, Are you the neapolitan, the cop, or the JK?

[Oxy]

correct, c3 is the one setup where it doesn't clear. scum would have to be very lucky to hit this exactly. But this resolves itself later with our first flipped pr.

You guys need to cc or not cc. I'm done arguing with you, but at minimum no town should place a vote until cc's are all out.

@Thor I know a lot changed since I asked you my last question. Could you please talk about what good strategy is here, from an IC perspective? <3 again.

[Oxy]

okay one more try tho - Think about it from this perspective. If you are the cop, the jk, or the neapolitan, and you claim now, you guarantee we, AT WORST, trade 1 pr for 1 scum. And that's a pro-town trade.

[Oxy]

btw, it's d2 now, teacher. FMPOV, all reads, including my read on elephant, are in limbo until after cc's give us a better understanding of the game state.

[Oxy]

oh, just read your plan better. I'm pretty sure that the PM thing is completely verboten.

[Oxy]

What made you think he was a likely nk target?

[Oxy]

I thought it best to see what was going to come out claims wise, first.

I like your fos on meji more than I like your fos on teacher. Why did you decide to vote teacher and not Meji?

[Oxy]

I'm not sure that Thor is saying that as a certainty.

But assuming the premise for your question is correct,

I think that if there is a scum on the james wagon, it is either you or Thor.

I am very doubtful that there are two scum on the wagon.

[Oxy]

realistically, though. I think the team is simply 2 of {meji, flicker, nauci}.

[Oxy]

In post 445, Oxy wrote:
I thought it best to see what was going to come out claims wise, first.

What other claims do you want exactly?

I want any counterclaims or lack thereof, but I'm probably going to have to wait a while for those, so thanks for that.
In lieu of this, I'd like some input from Irrelephant, and to hear from my scum reads.

Are you looking for a quick lynch? My reads are as clear in my posts as they would be in vote form. Why do you want me, more than anyone else, to vote right now?

[Oxy]

Yo, teacher - I think you're town. Thor is not going to be an easy 1v1. Fmpov, your best course of action would be to scum hunt.

Correct save for doctor is to save someone. It sounds like a joke, but it's not. It's correct from a beyesian perspective to save the JK claim some percentage of the time and to save outside the JK claim some percentage of the time.

@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.

[Oxy]

I think he was pretty clear just now on what his reads are...

[Oxy]

@game: Lamist is more town-indicative than scum-indicative for new players. The claiming discussion may or may not have been anti-town, but it's unrealistic to argue that it comes from scum more often than from town.

Who is arguing this?

I'm arguing the first point
And my second point is responding to the following quote. And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I agree that your efforts helped convince people to do non beneficial town play by even discussing claiming when there was no actual benefit to it.

p.edit
Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

[Oxy]

And my second point is responding to the following quote. And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I see my quote, I don't see me calling him scummy for that, I do see me calling him anti-town. I also see me calling him scummy for other reasons.
Feels very angular as a defense.

Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

Nah, 100% jailkeeper at that stage, because once scum make a non-JKer kill the JKer is a cop result.
Then, after Doc death, JKer openly declares his target, and until JKer death you get another cop result every night.

1) Yeah, I know you didn't explicitly call it scummy. I even mentioned that in the quote?

2)This is a waste of time, but no. If doc is known to save JK 100% of time, then scum hits outside of JK 100% of time, and doc save does nothing 100% of the time.. Thus, doc should save outside of JK some amount of the time in order to induce scum to attempt to NK some amount of the time, allowing doc save to actually do something some amount of the time. Obviously, this percentage needs to be low so the benefits of correct saves aren't outdone by the times the JK is successfully night killed.

[Oxy]

Penultimate Votecount Day 1(a bit more than 3 days left)

James Brafin

(4)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 , Not Known 15 , Flicker , L-1
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,
Meji Fan (2)teacher , Oxy ,<---- counter wagon to town

Not Known 15

(1)James Brafin ,

Final Votecount Day 1(less than 3 days left):

James Brafin

(5)Thor665 , Irrelephant11 ,

Not Known 15

, teacher , Oxy , L-0
teacher (1)Nauci ,<---absent
Nauci (1)Meji Fan ,<---lone vote, not absent, no vote change, against JB lynch but not offering alternatives.

Scum

?

Not Known 15

(1)

James Brafin

,
Not Voting (1)Flicker ,<------Not voting this close to deadline, and not voting Meji; unvoted Brafin because they "didn't scumread them anymore" and didnt vote counterwagon that was at L-3(Meji) at that time. But at that time the lynch seemed inevitable without a push on a major wagon. Maybe hiding scum that wanted to evade VCA?.

Scum

?

Meji is at L-2 currently.

With my hard pushing as town vs town(Brafin) Mafia might not have needed to vote on Brafin.
And with Meji being the last counterwagon it would be very interesting to see what they were.

This is well connected with my thought process and compelling. I'm on board with helping Flicker bus her partner.

VOTE: Meji Fan

L-1

Post or perish.

[Oxy]

1. Yeah, I did. I don't think you're reading my posts very well.
2. ??? It's possible you're reading, but you definitely are not comprehending.

I am being quite clear, though.

[Oxy]

And my second point is responding to the following quote.

And yes, I know you haven't called it scum-indicative. I'm saying I don't think it's scum indicative, and I'm doing so for the benefit of anyone inclined to think it is.

I see my quote, I don't see me calling him scummy for that, I do see me calling him anti-town. I also see me calling him scummy for other reasons.
Feels very angular as a defense.

Actually, even then the correct play would be to save someone outside the JK claim some percentage of the time. This would be a small percentage, however.

Nah, 100% jailkeeper at that stage, because once scum make a non-JKer kill the JKer is a cop result.
Then, after Doc death, JKer openly declares his target, and until JKer death you get another cop result every night.

You literally quoted me saying it, mate. (green color added to help Thor while he skims)

[Oxy]

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?

I'm done arguing it, but you are objectively wrong here, and that is evidence of you not comprehending my post.

[Oxy]

@teacher gtfo out saying I pushed a mass claim. I pushed for people to cc now because allowing cc's on later days is, imo, more trouble than it's worth. Our IC disagrees, fine. But you were agreeing with my proposal, so gtfo with the "despite my warning" shit.

And you'll note that I wasn't calling for any claims prior to NK's claim.

[Oxy]

2. What about my discussion of JKer and Doc combo is showing that I'm not comprehending something?

I'm done arguing it, but you are objectively wrong here, and that is evidence of you not comprehending my post.

No I'm not.
You brought it up after I had to seek clarification of your original post - I noted (agreed if you'd like) that since I hadn't stated it a general announcement to the game is super angular.
Your original post didn't have good context to your claimed intent - am I wrong?

Okay, you want to discuss it, let's discuss it.

It actually doesn't assume sub optimal play. It assumes that scum play and pr play is influenced by the expectation of what their opponent is going to do.

Bayesian analysis in this case, like in poker, is akin to going down the wifom rabbit hole (If he knows that I know that he is likely to save the JK, then maybe I should blah, blah, blah) all the way to it's eventual conclusion. That conclusion is that optimal play for both sides is to take one action some percentage of the time, and another option the rest of the time.

[Oxy]

Like I said before: a hypothetical doctor should save NK a large majority of the time. To not do so would allow scum to get too much value by targeting NK.

But if the hypothetical doctor saves NK 100% of the time, then he never gets a save because scum will never target NK. Thus, he must save NK much more than he makes any other save, but not 100% of the time.

[Oxy]

In post 474, teacher wrote:
@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.


I know it's implausible, I just think it's less implausible than the other scenarios I listed. It's a PoE read more than a certainty thing.

There's no tracker in column A, so no need to worry about lowering odds of a tracker hit. Even if we're in column B, a tracker hit is weak b/c it could also hit their fellow PR - let's say even odds of hitting either one of the scum split actions or the other PR, so 33% of the time a successful tracker hit misses scum altogether. I might take that risk to guarantee getting one successful night action - but IDK, maybe a more experienced player wouldn't.

I think that underestimating scum's ability to send a night action in over the course of two days is probably not the best idea.

That's the most charitable way I can say that, and I went through that exercise because I'm worried about confirmation bias.

Because right now, you arguing that claimed JK stopping the kill is less likely than people not bothering to send a night action is setting off alarms for me.

[Oxy]

Meji, talk to me about your teacher read. Why do you think he is scum?

[Oxy]

flicker, too, please.

@all Meji is still at L-1, and has claimed. I'm not unvoting, but I'm asking that people don't hammer until Meji has the opportunity to make those posts.

[Oxy]

@Oxy:

My feelings on the no night kill right now are entirely based on believing NK15's claims of JK and targeting Thor. If those hadn't happened at all, then the situation is wide open; if I don't believe NK15, then I think he's scum.

If you want to go over my original reasoning and respond to that (rather than pick at the continuation of that reasoning), it's in post #469. Though, reading it over, my reasoning against point 2 (Thor is scum and was blocked) seems weaker than I originally thought, especially if

he's

partnered with Nauci or Meji and

had

to submit the night action(s).

No, I don't really want to go over your reasoning. =(

In my opinion, any reasoning that results in one underestimating their opponent is almost certainly flawed. Saying that it is more likely for scum to have forgotten to send a night action than for a pr to have prevented a kill from occurring underestimates the abilities of everyone in this game.

I wouldn't go over your reasoning if you said 2+2=5. You could be the world's greatest debater, but any reasoning that makes 2+2=5 must be wrong by definition.

[Oxy]

@flicker that was ruder than I meant it to be. Apologies. IRL mood carrying over to game.

[Oxy]

please explain your case??

[Oxy]

Also, if there is a pr somewhere that hasn't claimed, I think it's bloody well time.

[Oxy]

As I see it, your lynch pool at end of day is Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor. I pause here to note that even at this point, the odds of Mafia trying to lynch Thor are 33% EVEN assuming the board has towned the second mafia slot -- which basically reduces the chances of both Mafia and NK actually doing it to 0.

Unless I am misunderstanding you, assuming the smaller NK pool, and no other changes to your model, would increase the chance of scum + JK both hitting thor to 4.76%. If you assume that the JK infers that exact 4 man lynch pool, the chance goes up to 8.3%

That would make the possibilities a little closer.

But I think all of that waits until we have cc's or not. Thor, maybe you disagree, but with two claims on the board, i think it's mass claim time.

[Oxy]

I think there might be more wrong with the math, but I haven't put much thought there yet.

One thing to note. You talk of a 2.4% chance as nearly nonexistent, but you're actually proposing a (1/7)(1/7)=.0204=2.04% chance scenario where you and NK both choose the same target.

Basically what I'm saying is, low probability things do occur.

[Oxy]

okay, but, and this is assuming both you and NK are true claims, a 3:1 likelihood is only 75%:25%

Consider this. From mypov, and assuming you and nk are true, that gives me 3 confirmed town out of 8. This leaves 2 scum out of 5. That would give each of you 40% scum equity vs 75%.

From this consideration, Thor is less than twice as likely as a random player to be scum.

That's an argument to lynch him - for sure - but it's no red check.

[Oxy]

Also, I would like to make it explicitly clear that a lack of cc's does not confirm teacher's claim.

[Oxy]

@teacher Explain to me why I shouldn't consider the following to be true:
Given random selection,
Town!NK has a one in seven, or 14%chance of choosing the scum doing the night kill
Town!NK has a (5/6)(1/7)=5/42=11% chance of choosing the night kill target.

Where the 5/6 represents the 5 out of 6 times the night kill isn't on NK and the 1/7 is the chance he chooses that target out of his seven possible choices in both scenarios.

[Oxy]

You should consider that to be true. Youre approaching from NK's PoV exclusively.

Approaching it from board PoV (not any position) is what brings the odds lower. The Mafia kill selection is an independent event to NK. Its odds of being the same as NKs represent the same multiplier of scum!Thor chances.

ccs anyone?

I don't think I am approaching it from his pov. I think this is board pov, as you call it.

[Oxy]

Because I still stand by my earlier analysis that at least one scum was on the wagon.

lol, you basically yelled at me for trying to estimate the number of scum on a wagon, but now your guess is analysis. Gtfo, mate. You're flailing scum at this point.

VOTE: Thor

[Oxy]

Frankly, if I'm lynched today and you guys lynch him tomorrow after I flip town I will be in the dead thread making horrible posts about your game analysis.

AtE

[Oxy]

Also, maybe Oxy is my partner and I'm trying to redirect suspicion off him by voting him at a point I fear I've been caught by your amazing math?
I don't even get the logic of that jab.

how does this help solve the game from your position or anyone elses, if you are town? It doesn't.

[Oxy]

@Thor I don't want to even try to evaluate your individual plays because if you are town, you should be reevaluating how many scum were on James' wagon.

If you want to ask about a scum motivation - what is my scum motivation to keep undercutting teacher's math? Why would I not sit back and see if teacher could get an early mislynch on you based on faulty logic?

This whole game you have been at a level 1 analysis, but you're one of the most experienced players on this site.

You're scum.

[Oxy]

he started out saying that his math made it like 6 times more likely that you are scum.

I came at it from like 3 different directions, finally determining that there was a 14% chance of NK picking the scum doing the night kill, and 11% chance of NK choosing the night kill target.

That works out to roughly 20% more likely that he picks scum. I took his analysis from 600% to 20%, a reduction of over 96%.

And to your BoP - I'm not saying you're "so good"

But I do think it's fair to ask you to have better than level 1 reads

And I'm not saying you're "so bad" as scum - I don't know your statistics, but I imagine level 1 analysis is pretty good in newbie games.

[Oxy]

I'm choosing not to answer questions for two reasons:

1) You are clearly a skilled debater in this context, and I imagine this sort of back and forth is why you're considered difficult to lynch. It muddles up the core issues for everyone reading.
2) You're a scum read, so I'm not actually trying to convince you that you are scum. None of this is actually for you, and your vote on me is irrelevant because I can never convince you to self vote.

---

And yes, you read my second argument wrong. You attacked BoP by taking it to the extremes -"If I'm sooo good at town, why am I sooo bad at scum."
That's a straw man argument coming from you. I'm saying neither that you are "so good" as town, or "so bad" as scum. I'm saying I can expect you to be better than this as town, and that it wouldn't be unreasonable for you to use lazy reasoning in a newbie game because level 1 analysis could be an effective way to coast through a game as scum, especially since you are a skilled debater.

---

And yes, I am still agreeing that you are more likely scum based on random selection, which is not a good model.

The point is this: Teacher came into this thread saying that you were mathematically nearly certain to be scum. I cut that from a near mathematical certainty to "he's 20% more likely to be scum than town based on random selection for the NK and the JK."
From your pov, scum!oxy has no reason to engage with the math at all, and every reason to not undercut it. Frankly, I would expect this to be obvious to someone with far less experience.

[Oxy]

@thorr the simple act of a continued back and forth wall fest mucks up the game, IMO. I don't think people like reading them, and I think they tune out. Ya, we get it, you are good with the english language. I'm not engaging with it any more. I think you're scum.

[Oxy]

VOTE: meji
I can get behind this plan.

[Oxy]

Lynch pool today is {thor, meji}

Both have great scum equity.

NK wants Meji, and his reasoning isn't bad.

If we don't hit scum,

teacher is going to get us a guilty in his one remaining night alive.

let's go let's go

[Oxy]

I am still okay with this
VOTE: Thor
L-1

[Oxy]

Intent to hammer should be given, even if someone has already claimed VT
Not because they might claim, but because if they are town, they might have final thoughts to share, and he might not get to them during the twilight period.

[Oxy]

@Teacher - to have fun with your bad math, here's a few other statistics.
I am 50/50 town or scum, because I was jauled and there was no kill. True statistic.
I am 22% likely to be scum at game start.
I am 25% likely to be scum now.
WHat are the odds that a Tracker tracked the persona JK targeted? Does the low number mean you're more likely lying to us? You're 50/50 scum after your claim statistically.
Wow, you share all of my statistics, don't you?
You know what all those numbers mean, besides being true? That doing random statistics is dumb.
I was more likely to be a NK target because I'm the IC. Did you account for that in your statistics?
I was also more likely to be a PR target - with that in mind, if I'm scum, why would I submit a NK?
Did you work either of those numbers into your silly statistic case?

This is massively disingenuous. I'm not going to break down why this is an affront to statistics, but it is.

[Oxy]

The case on me is an affront to statistics.

This was also true, but we got that under control.

[Oxy]

I have not belittled you in any way???

I have given you a compliment or two, and I have not been shy when attacking your arguments, but I have not belittled you.

[Oxy]

why would town!thor make meji town?

[Oxy]

Oh - Just re read that. Yeah, I'm not sold on your vca. I don't think Flicker's vote stops them from being partnered.

[Oxy]

I want to be clear - I think Thor is scum
I think Meji has great scum equity
I think Flicker has great scum equity
I think nauci has decent, but lesser, scum equity


I think elephant has the next highest scum equity
followed by you
And NK is confirmed town.

I haven't focused on associations yet. I'd rather wait for a red flip in this situation.

But I'm not going to rule out Flicker + Meji because of that vote. If they are a team, Flicker was soft busing Meji D1, and may have felt compelled to bus them today.

[Oxy]

In post 266, Oxy wrote:
If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.

This is a meaningless value call.
I would also note that there's a decent chance that it is also just about as statistically true if James is scum.

Why is there being exactly 1 scum on that wagon not a meaningless value call?

[Oxy]

In post 266, Oxy wrote:
If James is town, there is probably 0-1 scum currently voting for him.

This is a meaningless value call.
I would also note that there's a decent chance that it is also just about as statistically true if James is scum.

Why is there being exactly 1 scum on that wagon not a meaningless value call?

@thor don't skip this one, mate

[Oxy]

I wonder how many times it is going to take before I really learn that trying to convince scum they are scum is futile.

Can we hammer this, please?

[Oxy]

Still hasn't address the statistical odds that both PRs target same player.
Bet it's lower than the odds of me being scum - but needs to be factual for teacher to be town.
That's a core point to consider in realizing that all of these numbers are poppycock.

I don't understand why you are still arguing statistical fallacies.

The only use this statistic has is to point out that low probability things do occur.

[Oxy]

actually, we have intent to hammer. You don't have to answer that, Thor.

[Oxy]

@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town

[Oxy]

If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.

Thanks, mate. I promise I'll really dig into this if you flip green.

[Oxy]

As long as it's deeper than your analysis of me I'll get excited.

<3 you, too

[Oxy]

Hammer away.

[Oxy]

Let's GO

[Oxy]

thor, mate, your reads are no better than anyone else this game, if you're town

because you seem to think that I am scum

which is pretty awful

so probably less with the insulting and trash talk /shrug

[Oxy]

oh and let's not forget how you vote parked james

and wouldn't reconsider

[Oxy]

so get off the high horse. You could have tried to help, but you pretty much just threw a tantrum.

[Oxy]

teacher - Please out your check, now.

You are claiming tracker, so you have either an inconclusive check, a check on dead, or a red check.

If you have a red check, scum already knows who the red check is on. That person is probably not going to spew prior to your check.

If you have a check on dead, you are terrible. (lol)

If you have an inconclusive check, then I want to know it now - before YOU have a chance to gather more information.

[Oxy]

Welcome to the game BH; I'm a big fan of your work.

[Oxy]

;P

[Oxy]

How's this? Yesterday I thought mafia were informed they were jailkept, and I was corrected. Is it the case that mafia are informed if they were tracked?

If teacher's claim is real, then we are living in the world of Role cop + Goon vs Tracker + JK.

By the end of D2, scum would have known the identity of both roles. Therefore, they would have no reason to use their rolecop ability.

This means that there was exactly one scum performing a night action last night.

That's the only person that teacher can possibly have a red check on

Thus, scum already knows which of them can possibly be red checked right now.

(and, if they didn't know already, they do now. But they knew.)

[Oxy]

@teacher if your next post doesn't include your night action and result, I'm going to spend the rest of the game tunneling you.

They already know who you had to target for a red check, so all actions will be based around that. If you missed, it doesn't change their game plan in the slightest.

[Oxy]

It was a response to 759.

I think you holding your results gives scum!you far more actionable information than whatever the hypothetical scum team gets out of town!you's result.

So while town!you might see this order as pro-town, it's going to make it a lot harder for town to make a decision on your legitimacy.

[Oxy]

Spoiler: Living Players
Oxy (replaced DirtyDishSoap)
Irrelephant11 (replaced ImBad14)
Flicker (repalced CH4M3L30N)
teacher
brassherald (replaced Nauci) (SE)
Meji Fan (replaced Cedrick) (SE)

Here's where I'm at:
We have 6 players, so it takes 4 to lynch.
We are currently in Mylo, which means that if we lynch incorrectly today, we lose.
Presumably, scum won't want to bus today. If they can secure a mislynch, they win.
Thus, to lynch scum today, all 4 town will have to accurately identify scum and cooperate to lynch that scum.


If we sleep, either teacher or elephant will die in the night. (or me, in some very small subset of worlds)
Tomorrow, will be 5 player lylo, which requires 1 less uninformed town to work together to get a scum lynch.
Brass, I think you can vouch for Lylo being statistically better for town than mylo?

Thus, I think we should treat today as if it were the first half of D4. Let's use the time, but then let's no lynch.

Of us 6,
Town
Oxy
Irrelephant

Not Town
teacher
Nauci
Meji
Flicker

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points
Unfortunately, the result was not ideal.

I would like people to work on association based cases for the 4 people in the "Not Town" list.
Include me as well, if you want. =|
The goal is to rule different teams out, but if you find a case for why an exact pair is the team, that's okay, too.

[Oxy]

but how do you feel about teacher at this point? seemed like you wanted thor dead because of teacher, but post-flip I'm curious your feelings

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

That said, It hurts my brain to believe that NK jailed teacher.

Teacher didn't really factor into my scum read on Thor.

I agreed with a very specific thing: In a world where both the night kill and the JK target were chosen randomly, it was roughly 20% more likely that the JK chose the scum performing the night kill than the JK choosing the target of the night kill.

My scum read on Thor was based on his vote parking of James, his aggressive and (seemingly) disingenuous defense of his James read, and the arguments he made during D2. I can go into detail if you want, but it's kind of moot.

Back to teacher:
The way he claimed was weird. I don't know if town or scum is more likely to do that whole, "Case incoming! -> Oops, I accidentally outed myself (He hadn't, in my mind)" but I'm thinking about it.

If his claim is true, then we know that 3/4 night actions were targeted at Thor N1 (lol) - This is not meant to say that isn't possible. It absolutely is.

**We also know that Thor was targeted as the night kill on N1. Someone should compile Thor's D1 reads**

[Oxy]

I would expect most workplaces to be somewhat accommodating of a sickness as severe as Nauci portrayed.

Do you live in the US?

Jokes aside, I'm not sure this is a fantastic way of analyzing the slot from either of you.

[Oxy]

@Oxy - I prefer lynch today. Yes, its MYLO, but not lynching makes next two days LYLO. Id rather base it off reads from today and have room to sit on one lesser accepted scum tomorrow. I dont think the night kill (who I view as definitely me given role) tells the board anything we dont already learn today. But we can revisit this later in the day.

There is a 0% chance that you get killed today if we sleep.

You should search around these forums, or maybe the wiki. Somewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

[Oxy]

@brassherald Are you fully caught up?

[Oxy]

Actually, it looks like you are caught up enough for this based on your other comments.

teacher is the un-CCed tracker claim, I will not even consider lynching an Un-CCed PR claim when we know we have to have either a Tracker or a Doctor out there, based on there being a Jailkeeper.

Guys, I don't know what to do with this.

1) Brassherald has played numerous newbie games with this setup chart
2) In those games he has been scum, VT, and PR
3) None of those games that I found used column 3

Possible conclusions:
1) Townslip - Brassherald has played all of these games without really looking at the setup, and never realized that town could have less than 2 PR because he hasn't personally experienced it.
2) Scumslip - Brassherald knew full well what was wrong with his statement and posted in a conscious attempt to get a dumb-tell town read on him.
3) Brassherald had a brain fart.

I'm leaning towards three, but I wanted ya'll to take a look.

[Oxy]

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

Right now, fmpov, there are no confirmed towns.

I have reads, and I am confident that Elephant is town, but Elephant is not confirmed.

Thus, no lynching will give us information. No matter what the kill is, it increases every town's chances of finding scum.

Additionally, assuming no busing (and why should they bus?), we need 4 town to come together for a lynch. Tomorrow we will only need 3. That's one less cat to herd.

[Oxy]

Additionally, teacher might be real, and he might get a red check.

That would give town a 50/50 choice. This might not be greater than the chance of any individual town finding scum at lylo, but it's greater than the % chance that town will find a scum lynch at lylo

And it's certainly greater than our chance to find a lynch today.

[Oxy]

Tracking is going to be interesting

if he flips town

. For example, I cant decide if NK is likely to go to the deep or shallow end of the PoE pool. Looking at associatives makes (Nauci Elephant Flicker) the richest. I wonder if I should go there, or assume NK will. Conversely, going off scummiest, the richest is (Meji, Nauci, Flicker). Knowing both those facts though makes Oxy tempting. Enough for now....I dont think there is much to be gained from this exercise. Really hoping this is a scum flip!

Good luck everyone tonight.

I'm going to flip town.

I doubt that.

But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.

You two, and I know for a fact one of you is town, ARE TUNNELED BLIND.
Holy cow.
Get out of the tunnel and communicate with people functionally - especially in twilight.

@NK - Teahcer's plans and reads have been TERRIBLE stop advising everyone to "trust" him.
He's not confirmed, and his reads haven't shown quality, so what are they supposed to trust him on exactly?

This pains my soul, get used to being wrong, it happens all the time in Mafia, the important thing is not to double down on wrong.

This does not convince me at all to change my plan.

It seems like we have just different reads on everybody. And I trust mine more because of your "min 1 scum in wagon" deathtunneling.

Okay, nevermind. Teacher is scum.

NK doesn't leave this as his last post and then jail teacher.

[Oxy]

For all NK kept saying he love loved teacher and we should follow teacher's lead . . . . he jailkept teacher?

Meji lock town

[Oxy]

Elephant also lock town - teacher isn't sheeping his partner

[Oxy]

2 scum in {Flicker, teacher, Brassherald}

My guess: {Flicker, teacher}

[Oxy]

VOTE: teacher

[Oxy]

@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.

A) A red check actually makes scum!teacher less likely to win - at that point we're flipping a coin for the lynch.

B) The way I see it, we know two things. 1) NK twice supported the idea of teacher town, and for town to follow him in his very last post. 2) Jailing tracker!teacher means that we don't get a result from him.

Teacher is trying to make the case for it all being a mind game, and for how NK was seeing the chess board 8 moves ahead.

I think this is a situation for Occam's razor - the less assumptions you have to make, the more likely it is to be true.

[Oxy]

SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED.

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

omewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

VOTE: teacher

I am now basically convinced of a Brass-Oxy team. I still think Brass makes the most sense to lynch. But I put my pool up there. I think we have at least the same 50% chance of hitting scum within it that we would have tomorrow.

Yeah, teacher has outlined my master plan of going one direction and then immediately reversing course. Definitely didn't happen because I had just read Meji Fan solve the game, or anything.

[Oxy]

So, given the need to coordinate town, I would ordinarily try to persuade Oxy and Elephant with honey. But I just cant do it. Because OMG this is quite possibly the stupidest thing this game (and thats saying a lot coming from me).

1. Think about NK's statement in twilight -- WHEN I DIE, follow teacher. He thought he was confirming town or IDing scum by JK me. And he is right. Any scum team in the world with me on it has me carry out the night action, since NK had seemingly committed to JK elsewhere. The fact that NK was killed confirms I am not scum.

2. Think about my claim of being jailkept. First of all, I disagree with elephant's red-check argument. I am pretty damn sure if I had redchecked Flicker or Brass it would have gone through given the board suspicions to that point. But regardless, why would scum!me -- who must be brilliant to have made the claim so far -- make the bizarre and suspicious claim of being JK, when I could just have easily given Flicker a nullcheck while building towncred by pointing the crumbs.

@Elephant: you like simple questions. So I will ask a simple one. Why not Oxy-Brass? (note Im not pushing you to vote Oxy. But I dont see why they cant be a team).

1) Even if we KNEW that NK checked teacher, it still would NOT confirm teacher. It WOULD prevent us from getting a check from him.

2) JK'd is simply the least information result - So was tracking the JK'd VT, Thor. I SEE A PATTERN!

Also, great job @elephant for showing why DDS + Nauci never made sense as a scum team in any world. Good try, teacher.

[Oxy]

The problem with teacher's theory is as follows:

Put yourself in NK's shoes. You know with almost 100% confidence that you will be killed in the night, unless you can jail the person performing the kill.

You know that if you die, town will read your final posts to surmise your actions.

Do you,
a) all but say that you won't be jailing teacher, and then jail him anyway - wifoming the shit out of town, and potentially blocking the tracker from getting a result?
b) not do that?

[Oxy]

JK is the least information you can give.

[Oxy]

It's not much more info, but null says they didn't do the night kill

[Oxy]

Did you think it was going to make you suspicious tho? We'll never know.

[Oxy]

You dont, fair enough, we can certainly interpret things differently. But really, how likely is it that (A) scum!me is not assigned the night actions? In other words, explain this in light of your interpretation of NK that he would NOT jailkeep me.

1) wifom
2) Maybe you guys didn't read NK's comments too carefully, or maybe you misread them
3) Maybe you really did think he was talking on two levels and planning on jailing you
4) Maybe you got stuck on a desert island for the night phase and couldn't put in the kill
5)Maybe you flipped a coin to see who would do the kill.
6) Maybe something completely different.

[Oxy]

@meji
@brass
@flicker

get in here and talk.

about teacher.

[Oxy]

Oh, you!

[Oxy]

[Oxy]

Teacher + Brass--> I push Brass and Brass pushes me in MYLO --> No.
Teacher + Flicker--> Possible from my end, I defended the slot, and scum!me would "track" her. But difficult to explain Flicker's D1 push on me, and D3 pressure to out actions. --> unlikely, but possible.

I already paired you. These are your two pairings

[Oxy]

teacher, you and I have dramatically different perceptions of what plays a scum is willing to make.

It's not that I'm not seeing what you are saying, it's just that I disagree.

As to the two pairings, and as I said before, I could see you with either of them, and my guess is that you are partnered with flicker.

[Oxy]

teacher, I haven't figured out your partner. I don't think the reasons you are giving absolve you of all suspicion of being their partner.

This is my read progression on teacher:

D1: "Oh, wow, this guy is doing a lot of scummy things - primarily being lamist and pushing off the responsibility of his vote onto others."
I called you a town read because I truly believe being lamist is NAI for new players, and I am a fan of sheeping in proper circumstances. I didn't agree with how you were doing it, but I thought that town!teacher might be trying something without going into the theory too much. (As an aside, I have a number of theory/practice things I want to discuss with you post game. I think we could both benefit from it, and I'm a fan of your style.)

Day 2, your claim was ultra weird. I STILL don't really know how I feel about it. And your result was reasonable, but also really convenient. Scum!teacher definitely isn't spewing a green check in that position. Same deal with the sheeping.

Day 3, your target was ideal from a town perspective. But you got no result.

I KNOW that NK is town, and I KNOW what his last posts said. The rest of your game can be explained from a town POV, but I can't get past this point. I just can't.

Now, If others decide they want to sleep, I can still see a benefit to that for each NK:

1) teacher is killed: Wow! teacher was town! I'm glad we didn't lynch him in Mylo.
2) Elephant is killed: Oxy + Elephant theory is disproven.
3) Oxy is killed: Oxy + Elephant theory is disproven.
4) Flicker is killed: Removes her from the lynch pool
5) Meji is killed: Removes him from the lynch pool.
6) Brass is killed: Removes him from the lynch pool.

Obviously, 4,5, and 6 also remove them from possible pairings. Only number 1 really helps me, and it's very unlikely, but this might help some of our town that is less convinced.
And again, in the (now remote) chance that teacher is real, he could get a red check and give us a (at minimum) 50/50 shot at mafia.

[Oxy]

I didn't answer it well before, but here's the real answer for why it doesn't matter if you did the night kill or not.

If NK jailed you, and you were doing the kill, there would be no kill, and we could ask NK who he jailed.

But we don't know that NK jailed you.

It is very possible - likely, even - that you DID do the night kill.

And poor NK jailed someone completely different.

[Oxy]

As I understand your reading of NK:

He makes posts to make it seem like it is very unlikely that he will jail you.

He does this in the hopes that scum!teacher will make the night kill.

He then jails you to catch you in the act and get what would essentially be a guilty, and comes into D3 to tell us about it.

---

This is unlikely because of this EXACT situation.

He knew you were the tracker claim. If you're real, he knows that he will die, and that you will get no result.

If that was his plan, then he puts you in this terrible position where you look scummy as hell because of his final posts.

Is it possible? Sure. It's also possible that I'm a PR and I just haven't claimed yet.

But I'm not. That would be TERRIBLY game throwing, right?

So, yeah, NK could have inadvertently put us in a terrible position. That is possible.

But I have to have faith that he didn't.

[Oxy]

I agree with your day by day reads of me to a T. I do look forward to our post-game convo, because I agree on all your points in that paragraph.

Awesome - I'll send you a pm after the game.

[Oxy]

Ughh, Maru is playing zanster right now so I can't really read your whole post right now. Here's my answer to like the first 3 sentences.

I agree you are smart, but if we are taking a super high analytical skill as a given for your play, then you would have to answer for that case on Thor and the "accidental" claim.

[Oxy]

I'll answer your posts in full before bed, but to correct one thing - Meji is clear because she pointed out why you must be scum.

Scum might distance today - they might even bus - but I don't see them giving the solve like that. If scum!meji is busing you here by outing why your result is wrong, that's on another level.

[Oxy]

If you aren't teacher, and you're bored with the back and forth, this is probably a post you can skip.

I know it's dumb to try and convince someone that they are scum regardless of their alignment. I am sincerely enjoying this debate, tho. =) SO HERE'S A WALL.

Scum!me is smart, right? Smart enough to plan the failed gamesolve to out the protective PR?

I didn't actually remember you inducing NK to claim. I went back, and you did post about claiming first, but NK was ready to mass claim in his first post of D2. It would be interesting if town!teacher felt this way, but it sounds to me like you

actually were

trying to fish out the PR claim. Up until now, no one but you has accused you of that, I don't think?

Smart enough to fakeclaim tracker because I know we are in C2?

Yes, smart enough to claim tracker. Why not? Scum!teacher knows it couldn't be cc'd, and it fits with your MO of choosing results to claim that give the least amount of information.

If that is the case, how in the hell do I not plan my false report out smart enough to realize that the JK claim is the worst for me? Not to realize a nullcheck on partner (notably, a true result even if not obtained) would be better, and would build towncred for tracking the spot I crumbed a?

I think the best option would have actually been to null result me. I was never getting lynched today, but I wasn't as universally town read as Elephant, and it would have predisposed me to believing you. This is a decent question. As either alignment, I think you've been rushing your analysis this game. See below for examples, but also include the Thor case.

ALL OF THE OTHER SETUP STUFF

It is clear to me from looking back on the start of D2 that teacher did not carefully examine the setup possibilities for this game.

It's hard to evaluate his setup errors as coming from one alignment or another because both scum and PR have a heightened need to study the setup. There are more errors like these, but these are good examples.

---

As he pointed out, he initially assumed that there had been a doctor save. I expect both scum and tracker to have looked at the setup, and understand that either JK or Doctor could have stopped the kill.

I expect this from scum in column C because both are possibilities in their world
I expect this from the tracker, because both are possible second PR in their world.

---

Just now, he made an argument based on C3 being Doctor + Jail Keeper rather than Doctor + Tracker.

I would have expected scum living in the C column to know the possible setup specs.
I would have expected the tracker to know C3 has a tracker in it because I would have expected the tracker to have looked at setups WITH TRACKERS IN THEM.

---

Clearly, at least half of these are unfair expectations to have of teacher. However, I don't feel the need to argue against super-setup-wiz!teacher because that guy doesn't exist as either alignment. If there is any question at all to be had, it's does teacher rush through the analysis - as evidenced by the errors - more often as tracker or as scum. Or is he equally likely to do so as either alignment?

I don't know, so I'm calling it all NAI. And I think that's a very charitable reading because it's really tempting to just call these two examples scum slips (and there is a draft of this post that did just that).

@teacher I'm not actually sure where my scum case on you requires you to be an evil genius. I'm not trying to insult you; I do believe you are smart. I just don't think my case depends on it.

[Oxy]

If that was his plan, then he puts you in this terrible position where you look scummy as hell because of his final posts.

But once the result is known, his final posts can be understood just the way I suggest. Moreover, if the fundamental point of a PR is to save conf!town, perhaps he thought of his action as a way to definitively save me, and conf me as town. I dunno. I know Im not going to persuade you, but it hurts me because I think its so logical.

No - everyone including NK and the two of us knew NK was dying. That was the only given. He knew he wasn't saving you.

[Oxy]

The accidental claim--you didnt reach my timing point. Between (a) the day one crumbing,

Where is your day one tracker crumb?

[Oxy]

Also, as a serious question, how does scum!me even come up with the possiblity of being jailkept? It makes a hell of a lot of sense once I have results, but isnt a chance before results, right?

It seriously does not seem outrageous to me that - in a game with a confirmed jail keeper - scum would be able to conceive of being jailed.

Maybe that is unreasonable, lol? I do really want to see the D1 crumb.

[Oxy]

I have some thinking to do. It's probably just me being super paranoid, but I don't have time to dig through it right now. Updates by tonight/tomorrow.

[/vote]UNVOTEVOTE:

I'd love all of your thoughts on teacher and the last couple pages in the interim.

[Oxy]

VOTE: UNVOTE

[Oxy]

IMPORTANT POST

I'm procrastinating important things because of this game, lol.

I had this nagging feeling that Not Known was actually scum reading teacher, and might have actually jailed him as a result. I thought this because of the following two quotes. Specifically, maybe Not Known thought that teacher thinking there had to be a doctor was indicative of teacher knowing scum wasn't jailed. The following two quotes illustrate why I thought this might be the case.

The third quote has NK explicitly NOT town reading teacher's claim, further supporting this theory.

Why do you think we have a doctor? The missing Night Kill?

Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?

I see one giant hole in it... there are two roles who can stop a kill, not just one.

As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.

Actually... no. The claim is not Town-alignment indicative in itself. If I am the only power role then one of the scum can easily claim tracker without fear. You are the IC, why don't you know this stuff?

But then there is this next quote. This next quote implies a hard town read on teacher:

I looked at the case and the reasoning of Teacher.
VOTE: Thor665
plan change:
If Thor is scum I will jailkeep Meji. If someone dies Meji is cleared. Teacher will not announce their target because that isn't needed.
If Thor is town then both Teacher and me have to look for someone, without coordination - we can't let scum know who we target.

Here's why:
If NK is scum reading teacher for possibly knowing that Thor was a save, that implies that Thor is clear in a world where teacher is scum. If he is scum reading teacher at all, why does he a) sheep teacher's read, and (obviously related, but important independently), sheep it onto the person that would be cleared if his suspicions of scum!teacher were correct?

He just doesn't. So at this point, we know that NK is hard town reading teacher.

Now, let's look at his ultimate plan. Even when analyzing a world where thor flips town, NK STILL hard town reads teacher. He says to "follow teacher's leads."
From this, I infer that he is no longer considering the first two quotations as a reason to scum read teacher, EVEN IN A WORLD WHERE THOR FLIPS TOWN!

For him to jail teacher while a) knowing the position it would put town!teacher in on D3, and b) hard town reading teacher simply makes no sense.

teacher is scum after all.
VOTE: teacher

For clarity, it should be known that outside of these posts and NK's last stated plan, NK made no posts that imply a feeling on teacher's alignment one way or another on D2.

[Oxy]

teacher - You could very well be right that the first two quotes of 862 do not imply he was scum reading you.

However, saying that they could imply a scum read is the most charitable way of reading them when making a case for why you are scum. If NK was scum reading you, it would give some credibility to the idea that he actually jailed you.

So what I am doing here is trying to find ways to corroborate your story, and then see if they stand up to scrutiny. I haven't found one that does, yet.

[Oxy]

I know I'm due for a prod so I'll just post this really quickly: if everyone could stop tunneling teacher I'd really appreciate it. Maybe I'm just the VI that's gonna cause town to lose, but I still believe he's the tracker.

I appreciate your invitation to dinner, but I'm afraid I've already AtE.

[Oxy]

@Oxy re:854 I’m curious if teacher’s “lack of setup understanding” makes sense from a scum who considered claiming doctor? Not enough time to go back and read it.

Yes, it could be.

However, I think a strong case can be made for scum!teacher without these, and there are enough errors in his understanding of the setup over the course of this game that I'm inclined to believe they are personality indicative rather than alignment indicative.

Basically,

Scum!teacher went, "oh shit, our kill got blocked. I need to take control of the game state in order to out the JK/doctor."

or

tracker!teacher went, "Oh shit, a kill got stopped, so there must be a protective role. This is exciting! I'm the only one who knows that I am tracker, so I have a unique ability to judge PR claims in this game and should be helping to direct the process."

As either alignment, I believe it is possible that he rushes through his analysis in order to post quickly and direct the manner in which people would claim.

[Oxy]

[Oxy]

lolol <3

[Oxy]

serious request:

Can I see a show of hands of people who would make those final posts when in NK's position, and then proceed to jail teacher?

There is a zero percent chance that I would have done that, and I think if you're honest with yourselves, there is a very low chance that you would have done it, either.

[Oxy]

This seems like a weak reason to read Meji as town, much less lock town. Just as easy for scum to call out the inconsistency and set up teacher's mislynch.

this read is obviously based on a world where teacher is scum.

[Oxy]

This is real advice, though unsolicited. Do with it as you like.

The best defense in this game is always to scum hunt.

If there is part of a case against you that you can easily and strongly refute, go for it.

Otherwise, just work on solving the game, and you'll look townie doing it.

[Oxy]

Id also like to reopen the salted tracking thoughts question.

? what question?

[Oxy]

lso, as a reminder to Oxy, teacher and Irrelephant to a smaller degree, we are in MYLO

I'm pretty locked into the world where

teacher + flicker are scum

with a smaller chance that teacher + brass are scum

and an unlikely world in which I am quite cross with NK and the team is exactly,

Flicker + Meji

I've tried my best to reevaluate, but all roads lead to rome.

So I'm happy with a teacher lynch

In a world where 3-4 people are willing to bet their lives on town!teacher, I'm good with a flicker lynch.

I'm getting less and less eager to No Lynch the more people continue to not want teacher lynched because I don't really trust ya'll to do that after I'm killed in the night

But I could be convinced with assurances from brass/elephant/meji. maybe

[Oxy]

@teacher elephant brass is not a thing because elephant is my strongest town read, independent of all association tells.

@irrlepehant Brass can be teacher's partner by poe (simply by not being you or meji). I never spent much (any, really) trying to sort Nauci, and teacher vs brass early this day could have been faked - they were having a pretty irrelevant conversation while lightly pushing on one another, and teacher clearly believes that light pushing is a meaningful reason to believe two people aren't partners.

It's basically the absence of a reason for why they cannot be partners.

[Oxy]

This is my biggest problem with your play today. At the start of D2, you said they were back on the table. Now they are back off the table.

Yeah - because reevaluating someone and coming to the same conclusion is impossible, amirite?

[Oxy]

If you want, I could pull out some posts from Oxy's ISO that I could only see coming from town.

I lowkey want to see these to better my future scum game, but I don't want to ask you to do work for my benefit outside of this game.

so I hope that you get taken up on your offer by teacher, et al. ;P

[Oxy]

@brassherald where are you right now on who we should lynch or should never lynch?

[Oxy]

>we're in mylo
>you think the scum team is {elephant, oxy}
>you're voting flicker

k.

[Oxy]

great, thanks.

I just wanted to clarify that this wasn't a hard bus, just a soft one. ;P

(post 40ish% serious)

[Oxy]

Ya, I'm with you for the most part.

Obviously, I'm somewhat hesitant because I see red when I look into your eyes

But you're right that I'm probably lynching flicker here if it becomes clear I can't get your lynch.

[Oxy]

BTW, I'm a fan of pretty much everyone in this game, so if any of ya'll can stand to play with teacher and me again you should /in for this. It looks like a fun setup, and it's fun to play with people you have some experience with.

Now taking signups for:

Open 723:

Purgatory

Setup:

3x Mafia Goon, 6x Vanilla Townies

Mod:

Maruchan

Players:

6/9

1. Invisibility
   
2. ejjinami
   
3. teacher
   
4. Oxy
   
5. RC most awesomest
   
6. Alchemist21

[Oxy]

@Oxy - doesnt the last point (again, a late idea) - that a Flicker lynch could confirm!town me - actually show Flicker is better than me in all circumstances?

I ask because I now expect Flicker to vote me, given the hard case I am making. That will bring me to essentially L-1 when either of Brass or Meji (who have sus'd me) could hammer. Thus, I am being very sensitive to the fact that this Flicker play I am making now could end the game. If you truly are town, what is the reason for not targeting the person you thought was my partner, when they could possibly confirm my role? (same logic, btw, applies to Elephant. I just see a Flicker-Elephant team as far more likely than you, when you cased Flicker D1 and Elephant defended her).

Okay, this is kind of obvious, mate, but here's the explanation:

I am more sure of your alignment than I am of flicker's alignment, and I'm not 100% sure that flicker is your partner.

Yes, she is my second favorite lynch. No, she isn't my favorite lynch.

Also, I'm pretty deep in the wifom rabbit hole surrounding your flicker push right now. It's dark, and I'm afraid. I'll let you know when I find my way out.

[Oxy]

yeah, i don't know mate.

You're definitely making this difficult, if you're scum.

If you're town, you're doing a pretty good job, except for the oxy+elephant thing (wut?)

You're the sort of player who only goes down kicking and screaming - like Thor? =P

[Oxy]

who do you want to lynch

[Oxy]

reread nauci and meji isos again.

Meji backing off the teacher read undercuts my reason for town reading him in a world where teacher is scum

Nauci I think was simply town

so right now I'm back to 2 in {teacher, meji, flicker}

tbh, my teacher scum read is waning with the sheer effort teacher is exuding, but that might be the opposite of what I should take from this.

teacher, is this effort alignment or personality indicative, and why?

I need to reread all three of their isos together, but I don't have time right this moment.

[Oxy]

I'm having trouble giving any weight to associations between you and anyone because of the wifom implied by how much weight you have put on light pushes when examining associations.

So I see what you're saying, I just don't know if I can use it when sorting you.

I'm considering voting flicker with you, just to confirm (fmpov) that at least one of you is scum

(if you are both town, flicker will get a 1-2 hammer from the 2 scums at some point in the next day)