Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[teacher]

Greetings all. I am travelling through Sunday so have less time to quote and comment than I would like. Certainly looks like at least some will be active chatters, which is helpful for outing information - something that always helps town. I also like the RVS.

VOTE: nauci

Its an RVS for me, and one I am doubting, because of the silence so far. But there it is anyways. Happy weekend everyone.

[teacher]

UNVOTE: nauci

Still travelling though tomorrow night USA time so will be brief. My vote was knowing it would be L-2. I figured it would either prompt some mafia to bandwagon or to speak up in defence if he was maf. Neither really happened though James did speak. As for silence, that’s what I meant - not Nauci but others not defending him or creating another wagon.

Look forward to reading tomorrow.

[teacher]

OK, Ive now given everything a close read. Heres my analysis, for the two cents its worth, as well as a general site mechanics question. Also apologies to Nauci for getting her gender wrong.

Question

. In Post 11, Nauci mentions ISO. I dont see an ISO button on posts. This would be helpful. Can someone give a more detailed explanation? (Im familiar with the basic software and using profiles to narrow posts, but an in-game ISO would be faster.)

Analysis

: Listed in game order, from the intro. One note is that I assume Maf strategy is to have one participant/misdirector, and one lurker (active or not). That assumption is in itself questionable, but it is my baseline for most games.

1.

DDS

. Post 10 Random vote of Im Bad - someone who is no longer in game. Has not changed vote, though commented since replacement. Most posts (14, 17, 62) discourage discussion of strategem as avoiding scumhunting. I personally disagree with this as discussion of strategems can provide alignment indicative responses. Post 27 questions Nauci; Post 41 asks James to explain his vote.

Bottom Line

: Has chatted at least 5 times, but provided no reads other than to question Nauci. Only discourages strategem discussion. Since I disagree with that, I question alignment very mildly.

2.

Irrelephant

. Replacement in at 43, one chat introducing as new and LA weekend (49).

Bottom Line

: Not much here. AFK but interested in what and when they will contribute.

3.

James

. Loud participant with detailed posts. Not sure what to make of R2D reference in post 20. Votes Nauci in 20 because Nauci raised issue with game rules in 7. Quickly pulls back Nauci Vote in 22 and promises attack on Thor. Post 30 provides the detail of his attack on Thor, while Post 31 responds to Thor's 24 with a light FoS on DDS. Post 37 responds to Thor's 35, but is incredibly unclear to me. Post 50 agrees with criticism of my vote, attacks Flickr for post 45, and defends Nauci.

Bottom Line

: Actively raising suspicions and creating chatter - something that scans as town to me, but only slightly. Seems to be friendly towards nauci. I hate the quote/red mechanics personally, but understand he may be trying to be clear.

4.

Flickr

. Replacement in at 43. Immediately votes James at 45 because of chat mechanics, but indicates uncertainty. Post 45 criticizes me for wagoning, but Post 57 criticizes my unvote (contradictory?). Post 57 notes who was AFK early game, and responds to James's suspicions in post 50.

Bottom Line

: Has been active since arrival, and provides analysis of player's (mostly my) moves. Slight townread.

5.

Me

. I was LA this weekend. I arrived and voted Nauci in 39. I explained my vote in 54, at the same time as i unvoted. Havent otherwise contributed until now.

6.

Nauci

. Certainly the loudest player. But as several others (Meji in 53, for example) have noted, the posts have been mostly empty. Post 7 was comment on game rules. Post 11 was explaining acronyms. Post 13 poses game strategy question of claiming tracker, but then post 18 adopts DDS's explanation of why not to discuss this (contradiction). Post 26 questions James; post 32 gives him love; post 38 goes back to questioning (but for what are valid reasons to me). Continuing with his focus on James, post 47 townreads Flickr but post 51 encourages James v. Flickr 1v1. Not sure what to make of this, but seems slightly contradictory to me. Post 44 criticizes my wagon (seems valid). Post 60 claims not to understand James v. Thor, which seems odd given the post 51 encouragement of 1v1, and also seems questionable because their posts were relatively clear (as Thor 61 points out). Not sure what to make of "town macho even night commuter" in post 11.

Bottom line

: I see some contradictions here. I also see James defending her, as discussed below. But Im not yet inclined to scumread, even tentatively, in part because of my reaction to James.

7.

Meji

. Replacement in at 33. Interesting in itself because Cedrik had chatted (at 19). Suggests some role that Cedrik didnt have time to fulfill. First post at 36 scumreads Nauci because of welcome and post 7. Post 40 questions my vote. Post 53 notes Nauci hasnt said much substance.

Bottom line

: not much here; my read of some role is purely dependent on Cedrik having chatted then left.

8.

Golden Paradox

. Random "pagetop" post at 25 explained as for memes. Post 48 refers Nauci to past games they have together. Otherwise entirely AFK.

Bottom line

: "pagetop" gives me an active lurker initial read. Interested to see more.

9.

Thor

. Active poster with content. Post 15 provides IC role details and opinions on mechanics. Post 16 questions DDS. Post 24 responds to DDS 17, explaining why strategem discussion is fine (which I agree with). Post 24 also responds to James 20/22, setting up their 1v1. Post 35 responds to James's FoS in 30; Post 59 does the same with James's 37. Post 61 questions Nauci's comment in 60 of how the Thor v. James 1v1 doesnt make sense.

Bottom line

:null-reading to me. Seems to be playing in IC role; seems to support discussion of strategy which I agree with. Questions Nauci for same reasons I do. A player I seem to agree with on most counts, but dont have a sense of role.

VOTE: Golden Paradox. Youre reading the thread and silent. I want a reaction.

[teacher]

I began drafting when we were at post 62. I will respond to those that came after when I can review them. HAve to catch up with Real life for a little bit first.

[teacher]

OK, so a number of people (Nauci 65, Irrelephant 64; James 45; Flickr 57; Meji 40) have questioned my voting pattern. For me, it was a question of LA/vacationing.

Initial vote

: I voted knowing it was L-2, to force info on whether anyone would bandwagon or defend. Then again, I could be accused of wagonning myself. I explained this in 59, and it remains the same.

Unvote

: TBH, I was a little drunk on vacation. I thought 24 hours had passed since my initial vote. I hadnt seen any information come from that vote, and the publication of an actual vote count made it less likely to come after that. Turns out my drunk self was wrong on time and less had passed than I thought, though there was a votecount. My unvote was also partially a reaction to Meji 40 and Flickr 57 questioning my vote (Nauci 65 is correct on that). Basically I decided the vote wasnt helping get more information and was hurting me.

I dont blame people for being suspicious of me because I was so inactive. I hope the detailed and content based post 66 helps with that. But theres my explanation FWIW. BTW, as an out of game comment in case it doesnt get said elsewhere, good luck with your medical issues Nauci.

[teacher]

If you scroll down to the bottom of the page (under the quick reply box) you will see a little series of drop down menus.
These will allow you to isolate any given player, or to bring up all the posts by two or more players (useful when looking for associations and interactions I find)

Got it and used it. Thanks IC!

[teacher]

I was criticizing your reasoning for wagoning. I then criticized your unvote for, again, your (poor) reasoning.

Like I said, I dont blame anyone for scumreading me. Its not the case, but I get why. Two quick responses to this below, but after this I'll let my posts and votes speak for themselves.
1. My first vote concealed my reasons. I tried to pass it off as RVS. The truth is I like short wagons (to -2) because I feel like board reactions are telling. You can see if someone defends, or if someone hops on or off the wagon quickly. Nobody did any of those things in the 24 hours (slight defence as noted, but not significant).

2. My unvote provided some of my real reasons. I didnt think I was getting information (again, nobody on or off quickly, and nobody strong defence). I did not say - but it was one of the reasons - that the vote was hurting the town because it was making me doubt me. Bottom line, I changed because I didnt get the reaction I wanted, but also because I knew I would be low activity and unable to change before a wagon lynched Nauci. My reasoning may well have been poor - I was drunk. But looking at it sober I would likely have done it again. IF I had had more time for analysis at that point, I would have voted TGP rather than simply unvoting, but I fixed that with 66.

Two other responses to post 81, but without quotes since I am a bit tech slow:

vote count as limiting information: Its tenuous, I'll grant. My logic: the thread had been slow, so I guessed not many players were actively analyzing. Before the count was published, they might not have read L-2. Of those active, mafia would be the ones most likely to be analyzing vote count. Thus, if Nauc were maf, Id see some defending or active FoS of others. If Nauc were town, Id see at least one more wagon. When the vote count was published, everyone has the -2 information, which makes reactions less informative.

Player by player analysis: I promised a close read after my return. This was me fulfilling my promise. As for including myself, I was trying to be fair. To me, it would be suspicious not to acknowledge the case against me.

[teacher]

Also, informal votecount by player position. Im the only one with 2.

1. DDS -> Irrelephant (by voting Im bad at 10).
2. Irrelephant --> no vote yet
3. James --> Thor (37)
4. Flickr --> Teacher (81)
5. Teacher --> TGP (66)
6. Nauci --> Teacher (44)
7. Meji --> no vote yet
8. Golden --> no vote yet
9. Thor --> Nauci (15)

[teacher]

I lied again (not a great thing to do as town, I know). I will make one more post defending myself. It's short: You will note at least 5 players have questioned me (Irrelephant 64; James 50; Flickr 45, 57, 81; Nauci 44, 65; Meji 40). Nobody else has defended. I personally would find that comforting if it were a different player. But you make of it what you will.... Im going to be offline for a few hours. Please dont wagon me before I can respond to anything more if needed.

[teacher]

1. James 85: I appreciate that you tried something new. But MAN did that not work. I agree with Nauci 87.

2. Nauci 86: Im going to assume you are drugged and not misrepping, but you added at least two extra flips in there:

• "jk was applying pressure jk I'm done voting there for pressure"
  This was all in one post (54), not two flips as implied by double JK.
• "jk I shouldn't have unvoted I was drunk jk even if I wasn't drunk I'd have done it anyway"
  I assume this is talking about 68 and 82. But I never said (in 68 or anywhere else) that "I shouldnt have unvoted.:

I dont expect this (or point 3) will persuade the two people who have already voted me, but offer it for others, along with the lack of defense from others).

3. Nauci 86 and Flicker 81: Both of you have scumread my detailed analysis of each player (post 66). All I can say is I wish every player would do this. It provides insight into not just one or two relationships, but lines between the speaker and all players. Right now, only 20% of the board knows someone elses alignment. Anything that gets more information to more people is town-friendly. Put another way, assume you are right that I am maf. If and when I flipped as such, you would know not only that I was mafia, but also who I tried to soft as town. If everyone made a similar list (rather than FoSing one or two and towning one or two) the webs between players would be visible alot quicker.

4. Why so few questioning TGP (and to a lesser extent Meji and DDS) being AFK?

5. Relatedly, could people share their common posting times so I dont interpret sleep/work as AFK? Not going to hold you to it, just trying to understand schedules for what they are worth.

[teacher]

Quick responses and updated 66 for what they are worth.

Responses

Friendly mod warming

Ooooh I feel so warm. .

IC, is there a normal for voting here? Like, should I always be voting the person I most thinkis mafia? Or only when I'm sure?

IC question Thor may have missed (or I missed a response). Im equally curious.

-84 teacher what do you mean about 5 players questioning you? What are you speculating/implying?

I mean at least five players had FoSed me (enough for lynch if votes followed), but at that point no other player was actively either defending me or trying to point elsewhere.

Soooo "I lied again" is really not a great start for a defense? Especially since Thor said in his first IC post that lying is strongly discouraged for town players

I was trying to be funny. I wrote a post immediately after saying (in 82) that I wouldnt defend again. As for your point about telling partner not to defend me, its possible, but I think less likely. Plus I have received some halfhearted defense now.

In post 95, Meji Fan wrote:
Elephant - I may be the kg ew Cedrick, but even I cant derive much meaning from the two posts he left. People replace out, it happens.

Sorry, I really don't know what you're saying here? The typo is making the sentence structure unclear.

I think he was referring to my 66 (not you), when I suspected some power role of some kind because Cedrik posted then left.

my updated reads

- text only where read updated.
2.

Irrelephant

: I agree with nauci 97, very polite and so slightly difficult. Nonethless Im inclined to see the vote mechanics question in 80 as townie, likewise the questioning/FoSing of me and throwing out theories. Slight townread.
3.

James

: Continued townread, but I really question the vote and logic on Thor. I am just missing something here, and it seems to be based on what scanned to me as a clear joke. Please keep posts readable?
4.

Flicker

: From slight town read to nullread. Basis 57 notes who was AFK and asks for participation. But then has only provided 2 contributions in a day, one of which (81) largely repeats his suspicions of me from 45 and 57, only adding a DDS townread (based on what?).
6.

Nauci

: Appreciate continued contributions. Didnt see or understand explanation of contradiction between 13 and 18 -- you pose the question of whether to claim, then discourage discussion of it.

[teacher]

if you have issues w/ JB's logic, why do you tr him? I don't feel like you ever said

Actively raising suspicions and creating chatter - something that scans as town to me, but only slightly.

1. Has been focused on Thor, sometimes contradicting himself on reasons (I think because just anti-authority). But has also sus'ed/voted you (20), sus'd DDS 31 and Meji 50. Active chatter benefits town.

2. I dont think newb scum would have chat mechanics this annoying, or would have been woodshedded in the scumchat after the first complaints and not tried the second underlining gambit.

That said........its only a weak read because of the contradictions I see within his own Thor argument, not just because I disagree with it.

[teacher]

DDS on mobile but just in case you missed the earlier explanation, the “I lied again” was trying to be funny/mock myself because I was writing that post (84) immediately after saying (in 82) that I wouldn’t write another post.

[teacher]

I have played online once before. One thing I will say is that the opening 6 pages have been quite revealing as to this site's meta, which is quite different from the other site's. I think that difference has in part led to a personally unprecedented number of people scumreading me day 1. And Nauci actually captured the difference.

newbs drawing scum is what makes the nerves kick in high gear, or at least it was in my scum games, and also the games where I nailed a few nervous newbscum asses to the wall. Town have "whatever I'm town so FOS if you wnat to" to fall back on

On my other site, town was expected to fall over themselves to prove town. If they didnt, it was viewed as lurking/scum. Im not sure I agree with the meta here, because a town lynch does hurt town, even if not severely (and is bound to happen at some point). Moreover, I think drawing pr would create the same nervousness, and so the other sites meta helped conceal town power roles better. But it is clear from everybody that this is this site's meta, and now I will know that for future games.

This line of reasoning actually seems... fine, if you're town. Your vote count information explanation also seems... fine, if you're town.

Frankly, this shading of me feels like grasping at straws to discredit me, and I

really

dislike that.

I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

1. Apologies to you (and Nauci) on the gender confusion. I will learn to look left more.
2. You are absolutely right. TBH, I misdescribed your post 81 in the spreadsheet where I am keeping player by player track, and so did not think it was detailed (because you didnt explain the DDS read). You now have in a way Im comfortable with, and you are providing detailed chats. Im back to town tell, but.....
3. This post seems somewhat contradictory to me. Youre comfortable with my explanations (if town), but I still am your strongest scumread? Genuinely questioning why?

TTTBT.

DDS - Dirt Bag.

You opened up that my RVS is on a player that was replaced out. Do you think I should unvote based off the replacement?
Also, why the vote on GP? Why not myself whom you could say that I was lurking? Why not Irrelephant either at that time?

1. I'll echo Flicker in that I dont know and couldnt find TTTBT. I couldnt even come up with his guess, which seems right. I also loved the dirt bag.
2. As for why TGP - seemed to be most active lurking based on pagetop -- and confirmed through now. I did slight scumtell you at that time, but not enough to vote, and you had been far more active than TGP with questioning Nauci 27 and James 41 not to mention 62. I did not scummtell elephant because he was a new replacement who said LA, and I credited that.
3. I still disagree with your strategem point, but appreciate the explanation. I think with 14 days theres enough time to do both, and all chatter can help.

[teacher]

My gut. If want reasoning, ask.
DDS -> slight town.
Irrelephant -> nullish town.
JB -> null.
Flicer -> slight town.
Nauci -> nullish scum.
Meji -> slight town
TGP -> slight scum
Thor -> null.

[teacher]

Finally, how do you p edit? I cant see an edit button after I submit. Or, if not post-submission edit, what does it mean?

[teacher]

Could we get a link to the other site, to see for ourselves?

It was pbem, unfortunately. Im a lawyer who hasnt had time to play in 10yrs. Wish I could give it to you, as I know this looks sus.

Also, random @Thor - native English speaker. The defence/defense is because I was English schooled but American located. Other grammar issues are because Im trying not to let my love for the game swallow the rest of my life, and so shorthanding posts.

[teacher]

What about Meji Fan is townish?

Im still fixated on my own personal idea of replacing Cedrick even though Cedrick had participated in RVS and provided light comments. Even Meji told me to drop it, but i cant. I also appreciated Meji's pointing out repeatedly that nauci was mostly noise, because I agreed with it at those times though more content has been coming (and I credit Meji's acknowledgment of that as well). Hasnt waggoned or moved. Finally view the lack of politeness as a nonscum move, even if I prefer courtesy as a personal style thing.

Counter arguments - among the least detailed posts, and not many of them. First to point out the issues with my vote, suggesting active tracking of votecount despite lack of detailed partipation (though this is more null because had just arrived so tracking could simply be getting up to speed, and the vote was indeed questionable by that logic).

Anything else I should consider?

[teacher]

@nauci - how does TGP's style here compare to the other games you have had together that they referenced at 48?

[teacher]

Please dont DDS. I like your style and analysis. Its obv up to you, but I wouldnt leave a game over a style disagreement with one player. (If it is because youre overburdened from the other games, fair enough and good luck in them. Forgot how much of a timesuck these games can be).

[teacher]

Not sure how you're null on JB and Thor? Like they had a big long conversation with a lot of potential alignment moments. If your reads are all "slight" anyawy, seems like you ought to have something on one of them by now?

Not loving how you're still in continual excuse-mode, either.

1. Re: Thor - I'll echo AD. I find Thor impossible to read. I agree with most everything he has said, including in the JB fight, which makes me want to town him. But I did a little reading on him and didn't have feelings from those games. I think he is just a very experienced player. Thus, I cant trust my gut to like him because that could be experienced mafia blending in.

2. Re: JB - like I said, I found the chat mechanics annoying, but slightly townish. I found the early love affair between him and nauci a little scummish for a point where we dont have much info (and when I thought nauci was mostly noise). Here, its null because I have conflicting reads, and dont know what to make of how often he has moved votes. My gut leans scum, but I see enough countervailing townish points, including his active participation and encouragement of discussion.

3. Re:Continual excuse - I am a lawyer so perhaps longwinded. If something is questioned, I explain it. I have done it for everything -- questions of my actions and votes, and questions of my reads (like here, and Meji, and TGP). It probably is a hangover from an old play-style, and it is something I will be conscious of more in future games, though it is my natural inclination in life anyway.

[teacher]

It's time for my daily check-in. Welcome to our two new players. I love your contributions so far -- keeping the game fresh while most of us have died out. I tend to read up around this time and give my two cents worth. Im glad to engage with anything. Heres my reactions and updated reads.

his first reads post on everyone is looking at associations, which is probably bad!town,

Definitely true, I hunt primarily by looking at relationships rather than individual actions alone. Missing why bad!town. Pls explain.

In 169, Oxy put up four Flicker quotes he found suspect. TBH, I didnt find 45 suspect. Why did you? Also, 120 seemed pretty clearly a joke. I can see what you are saying about 81 and 120, though.

As for reads, not that much has changed for me. James and Nauci have slipped a bit, because theyre now being AFK upon some questioning which was counter to their early styles. Irrelephant is getting to be a stronger town read.

Voting. Im not keeping it on slot 8 just because TGP was silent. I debated sheeping on James but by my informal count

James is already L-2

. Im going to go Meji, not because of a strong scumread (heck I defended them in 138) because I want to see more participation from this slot to get a better read either way. VOTE: Meji.

[teacher]

why is this a reason not to vote James to L-1?

Theres a lot more discussion to be had (I really do want to see more Meji and barely know your playstyle). If hes inno, I dont want a rando hammer to come down days early. L-2 is enough pressure for me; the comment was to signal that I am not opposed to getting on later, but I dont want to be at L-1 on anyone right now.

[teacher]

Overall, putting you back in my town-lean pile.

Im updating my spreadsheet and this jumped out at me. Particularly "putting back." Because in your iso, you had already towned DDS's slot once (81), and further defended it to me (120). Care to explain?

[teacher]

So, as you can tell, tonight I tried to update my association analysis rather than my iso analysis. Doing that made me realize that some players I thought had been contributing alot really havent provided broader reads on more than one or two players. @Thor has only really discussed 3 people. @Elephant has only really discussed four. @Meji takes the cake with only two.

Multiple players (me, James, nauci, flicker) have shared guts on all players, even if its a null. DDS/Oxy is similarly close, only missing not whole (understandably). Talking helps town, so I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them (even if they are null). At this point there should be enough to go on to at least provide some views, even if conflicted.

Welcome home Nauci :/

[teacher]

even though he never really asked me a question ("I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them" is passive aggressive af like hello I'm in the room):"

ummm...it was a question? It called you (and Thor, and Meji) out by name? Just missing what is aggravating. Sorry for it, but dont know what not to do next time.

I've already said I ... liked DDS

Adonde? You liked his post 126, but the only time you mentioned him was early, for not participating. You had not shared a read before.

Even if I haven't used the word "read", I've definitely implied how I feel about more than four players, so saying that I've only really discussed four players annoys me.

Implications can be more easily walked back. Sharing an explicit read is a firmer data point. And its firmer even if its null, because you often share what actions are shading the null. Maybe its me, but I feel like I gained information from your 205, which is always good, even if it added nulls.

@Oxy - I dont know how you count talked directly to -- initiated conversation? Responded to questions? Just clear steering? Given this, I cant provide an answer.

[teacher]

I think most players will tell you that trying to judge associations

prior to seeing any flips

is less effective than sorting players by individual play.

But the information gathered today is not just used today. I think establishing associations early is something good that can be returned to after the coming flips. This, btw, is why I asked Elephant Thor and Meiji for more associational data. I dont think it particularly helps today's hunting, but it definitely helps tomorrow's. To be perfectly frank, Im not a great day one hunter. Not only are the odds on a town lynch but also ISOs standing alone can be led by individual idiosyncrazies (I just like that spelling), such as Nauci's drugs and what I see as James's general aversion to authority and personal defensiveness, rather than roleshading. With alot more experience I might be better at sorting AI from idiosyncrazy, but right now Im not.

[teacher]

I think you misread 120.

Da nke. Misread indeed. And I get the reason, too - Im towning you more and more.

As for the style, I will be more explicit with questions. Thus, in case it wasnt clear, @Thor and @Meji - can you share broader reads and reasons even if they are nulls?

[teacher]

@JB - I dont disagree with the NK vote. That slot had been inactive, and NK didnt provide much info (esp. as compared to Oxy) after arrival. But I do not appreciate your not answering several questions put to you. Speaking of, heres another one: Can you articulate the case on Flicker again?

I also, FWIW, disagree with you on the def of a misrep. We know very few peoples motives here. We can read into their posts as we will, and suggest potential motivations. It is not a misrep if the reads/assumptions are wrong, as they are simply assumptions. It is a misrep if the motives were explained, and then mischaracterized. For a good example of a misrep - though it was inadvertent - my suggestion that Flicker defended a DDS townread in 120, whereas the reality is that he backed away from it. Flicker would have been right to call it misreppy (but didnt, which I appreciate). You have used Misrep alot so far this game, and I have disagreed with almost every instance.

[teacher]

Just to put the question out there, because I found it suspect, @NK - why did you pressure to L-1 half-way through the day?

[teacher]

So to try to move the game along, Im going to do an informal vote count. It is below. James is at 3, Im at 2, anyone else has one.

I am debating moving to James, as I am taking NK and Nauci's point on the advantage of that as the deadline approaches, when the mod hasnt extended. If anyone has counter-arguments, I am open to them - why I am not voting now but declaring intent. Also, my next post will feature what I view as unanswered questions from the last couple pages.

1. Oxy -> Flicker 163
2. Elephant -> James 106
3. James -> Not Known 214
4. Flicker -> Teacher 81
5. Teacher -> Meji 182
6. Nauci -> Teacher 197
7. Meji -> Nauci 12
8. Not Known -> James 175
9. Thor -> James 88

[teacher]

So heres my unanswered questions list.

• Thor -> Mod: Extension please? 166. I'll echo the request, and the length.
• Elephant -> Thor, Nauci: What to make of flips? 207. Meji answered in 237
• Elephant -> Oxy: What do you think of JB following NK? 207. Oxy 212 acknowledged question, but waiting for James, so can now answer.
• Teacher -> Thor: What are your other reads? 208
• Teacher -> James: What is the case on Flicker? 215. Oxy -> James: Please include explanation of overconfidence 218. James promised response 222, but has not yet posted.
• NK->James: How does unvote help town? 226

[teacher]

Since you called it out as wanting an answer - I'll give one.

Perhaps you missed part of my question, since you didnt quote it.

will provide some broader reads

and explain them (even if they are null)

.

Care to explain your nulls? You did so for me 99. Providing the same on other slots could help bring your experience to advantage for town (as I am more and more townleaning you).

Put another way, I highly doubt that you have had no reaction at all to Elephant given the frequency of his posts. Yet you are apparently null. So what has shaded town? what has shaded scum?

[teacher]

@James, earlier in your ISO you softed a power role. I am putting here publicly that I plan to L-1 you 10 hours after this post. The hammer could come down any time after that, by any one. Best to declare if that soft was real.

Anyone other than James can talk me out of the L-1. I just put some stock into @Nauci and @NK15's comments regarding time before deadline. If the mod extends, I will also not be L-1'ing.

[teacher]

I don't think anyone should claim unless someone has given intent to hammer.

Also, anyone who quick hammers will be death tunneled by me D2.

Makes total sense. I was reacting to Newbie 1862 (in the forum) where the cop was hammered d1 for claiming really late, which is why I put a delay even on the L-1. James, Id follow this advice. But I still plan L-1 in just over 6 hours.

[teacher]

ALL of the above is true, and ALL of it is why I was reluctant. (1) I have a stronger scum read on others; (2) I worry that James softed pr, heightened by other games; (3) it is the weekend so I wanted to give him a chance to come back and answer the unvote and Flicker questions; and (4) Flicker expressed reluctance and I was not sure if L-1 without warning is frowned upon here (nauci provided intent to L-1, but didnt wind up doing it).

I have no intention of claiming hammer this weekend. I have stronger scum inclinations on Meji; and questions about as strong regarding two other slots. My vote will stay where it is for now. My strongest (almost lock) townread is elephant. If Elephant wants to lead a different wagon, I will sheep it quick to get pressure.

[teacher]

You, Meji, and Nauci

Want to triple on Meji?

To be honest, Im happy having my vote on Meji or Nauci, would view JB as a compromise, and might sheep an NK15 or Flicker but have less scum inclinations on them (particularly Flicker). Elephant has my promise on a sheep anyone but me.

[teacher]

talk to me briefly about your NK15 read.

Its a low info read. TGP was active but afk (made me sus this slot). NK came into the game and provided three suspects (Fair enough). Said they were sheeping/townreading you (fair enough). Seemed to have analyzed a fair amount of the game, but hasnt said much outside of the focus on those three suspects, including a deep wall on JB. Id sheep this position to get pressure on more contributions, and for carryover sus from TGP. Id much rather be on Nauci or Meji.

I have strong town lean on elephant. I townlean you. I townlean Flicker because I think she has posted game advancing content. I read your case on her, and I just see the quotes differently. I also have a bit of a personal bias. At two separate points I have misread posts of hers. I was her strongest scumread, but she didnt pull a James and put MISREP in bolded red caps. She pointed it out courteously. Since at that point she was advocating lynching me, that attitude doesnt seem like something scum seeking a townlynch would do. On balance, I just like her content.

[teacher]

Do you want me to unvote/switch my vote off James?

I know the question wasnt to me, but TBH, I dont

yet

. The reason for doing it would be that "nobody's pushing a counterwagon" But that is what Oxy is doing (even though I dont greatly sus it). I also dont mind having the L-1 pressure on James to come back and provide the case on you, as well as an answer to NK's unvote question. Its the weekend - a time when I would normally be v/la with my kids - so he might not have even checked in today.

If you have equally strong town on Elephant (and you both have towned him), Id say it would be good to form a block. We may all sus each other (flicker has sus'd me; Oxy has sus'd Flicker; Im pretty null on you two), but we all seem to trust him, and that provides a pretty strong block for pressure.

[teacher]

I will echo Oxy though. Death to anyone who doesnt provide 12 hours warning on a hammer over the weekend. And Flicker, be aware that its a hammer blow away tomorrow so check in please.

[teacher]

@Mod-Should I take it from the VC that it is a no on the extension (166)?

[teacher]

Intent to hammer in 25.5 hours (my noon on Monday). Sheeping Elephant. If he goes elsewhere, I will too. James and Nauci - you're on one vote wagons, and gone AFK. I know its the weekend which is why Im providing 24+ hours notice. Please come back and play, including the questions directed to you. Im going to be offline in two hours, for 8 hours.

[teacher]

why make an offer to move to Meji

I'm on Meji. Id love for people to move there, to spread some pressure around. Id prefer to lynch Meji (or Nauci) than James. But from midday yesterday to today, it didnt feel like the game advanced much. As I said before, James is an acceptable compromise for me. Thus I claim the intent, but tell elephant I will follow him. I will write up my case on James before I go.

[teacher]

Also, even if deadline expires without a hammer, the highest vote-getter is still lynched, right?

If a majority is not reached by the deadline, a No Lynch will occur.

No. There must be a hammer.

As for calling for a role-claim, I purposefully did not do that. I am hoping Elephant realizes he has a block behind him and decides to move elsewhere to share the pressure. I put the time deadline out there so that if there is not movement, James would have time to R/C right before the hammer. But I dont know the site meta here at all, as my play has shown. IC/Thor - can you speak to that meta.

[teacher]

Here are the highlights of my case against James, and why I am willing to compromise lynch him. Please note that he is not my strongest scumread, and I acknowledge some counterpoints not mentioned. I am just justifying my position, and putting these out there since I will be offline for you ALL (including James) to respond to as you see fit.

1. Atmospherics: Criticizes several posts for AoP. But his use of Misrep (e.g., 50, 85, 131, 214) is just that. Plus his reads list 131 has way too many scum reads for the game. Strikes me as someone spreading the suspicion around to see what gains traction for a town lynch.

2. Chat Mechanics: No, Im not going to go into the early red or underlining. Thats NAI, and potentially town as I suggested. But after he was called out for it, and promised to stop, he went back to it -- 222. Strikes me as scum trying to hard to underline something I (and maybe Oxy) had previously townread him for.

3. Case on Thor/Contradictions: I dont mind calling out Thor and suspecting him, as that advances the game. But he repeatedly contradicts himself in the case. Post 30 says that Thor's opinion that town shouldnt care about daychat is odd, but the vote on Nauci is what has him most concerned. But Post 85 says town shouldnt care about daychat, and it (and post 214) say that the biggest issue was opinions as facts. Another contradiction is that he blows Thor's joke way out of proportion (37), something he later criticizes DDS for (131).

4. His votes and reads seem a bit OMGUS. And the repeated references to multiball are just bizarre.

[teacher]

@Mod-Should I take it from the VC that it is a no on the extension (166)?

Since per game rules, I am not allowed to quote Mod communications but am allowed to paraphrase: The mod is right now not inclined to grant an extension.

[teacher]

THx ele. I will give you Monday noon decide if you want to move for any reason. I’d rather pressure meji or nauci but have committed to sheep you.

As for the soft James, I’m on mobile so can’t link but viewed your post saying:>lynch me, “throw” the game< as a soft of power role. Someone on internet can control f you for “throw” and link it if they choose.

James please make the case on flicker and answer nk’s Unvote ?

[teacher]

a ctrl+f for 'throw' in James' ISO yields this.
I personally don't think he softer anything and I very much don't see how that's a soft even with a squint and a tilt of the head.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10110780

That was the post I was thinking of. Perhaps we read things differently. I don’t see how a townmislynch “potentially throws the game” unless it’s a power role. But again I don’t know this site’s meta. Right now James is driving me mad for not defending knowing a hammer is above then.

[teacher]

Gonna think about it over dinner, but I might be the hammer tonight

I hope you had an enjoyable dinner. I also hope you dont hammer tonight. To be honest, this is purely out of respect for elephant. When he came into the game, he announced that he would be v/la weekends. Tonight, he said he would reevaluate the ISO in the morning. As someone who will also miss most weekends (not this one, but most) due to family obligations, I know I would prefer to have the chance to read the weekend activities before a hammer came down. But I defer to you and will not blame you if you do hit the nail.

[teacher]

there cant have been a "gut read" because he didn't give himself the opportunity for one

I disagree. He had just come into the game. Presumably, the 3 suspect list came after he had read all of the posts. Thus, I view the list itself as the gutread. This is admittedly my supposition based on timing, but I dont see why its wrong.

[teacher]

His easy answer to that is 'you throw the game when you lynch people off playstyle instead of for reasons they are scum'.

I dont disagree at all. I just saw it as a potential soft, so wanted to flag when we got to L-1 because I didnt want a quick hammer. It clearly was not a soft. But I would still raise it, and will raise any other potential softs when wagons gain traction.

[teacher]

Then what were his other reasons for voting Teacher? Because I sure as heck don't see them.

Pretty much everyone in the game other than you and Thor had openly sus'd me for the sequence of 39, 54, 66. I hope it is water under the bridge at this point, but it wasn't when DDS made his post. Indeed his post explicitly called out 66 in addition to the misunderstanding of 84. My bottom line is that if sus'ing my early play was a scum tell, we'd have way too many scum in the game for the setup.

*Pedit: NK - I dont mind James's attempt at defense. I hope any town would do it. But I am still on board with lynching him. I still wouldnt mind getting some pressure on Nauci since the silence is so astoundingly different from the early play, and given the early interactions between James and Nauci. But its Elephant's/Oxy's call.

[teacher]

You spend an awful lot of time outsourcing decision making processes away from yourself - why?

I disagree -- I have said who I would like to lynch and made my own positions plain. James is perfectly acceptable to me, and I wrote out my case (in addition to the unvote) above. But I do subscribe to the view that a town voting block lowers the chances of a mislynch and provides strength over the course of multiple days, which is why I am trying to get one around the spot that I feel is a lock-town, and almost everyone in the game has expressed similar feelings about (elephant). I have announced an intention to sheep elephant, which is why he is on that list. If he comes back tomorrow morning and says to vote elsewhere, I will follow. I put Oxy on the list because he declared a possible hammer tonight.

Does this answer your question? If not, I may be missing something, so please try again.

[teacher]

the amount of hesitation and concern for you that teacher was expressing seemed a little silly and/or potentially suspicious.

My motivation on time announcing everything has had to do with the weekend. (Believe it or not at your preference. I just know that Im normally offline all weekend days "babysitting" and so would only skim on evenings in general.) It had nothing at all to do with James. Just my situation, and my assumptions regarding Elephants from his entry.

[teacher]

On mobile on way to work. Will respond to Meji James and Thor when at a computer. Really short version is that my preferred lynch list after this weekend is James, nauci,, Meji in that order. Reasoning is that I think we get the most information on flipping James, and he is sus for the reasons everyone has said. Meji has moved down on my list because they have responded to questions and are participating more, even if still low and. It much detail. I still really don’t get the change in Naucis playstyle.

If someone confirms we are at L-2, I will vote now. I am a subway commuter though, so may not have immediate service.

[teacher]

VOTE: James Brafin. L-1.

And how are you 100% certain day 1 those two ARE town? And even if they are, that they know who is scum

First of all, there is only one I am sheeping - Elephant. Second, in response to your question, I am not and cannot be 100% certain Elephant is town. But it is my very strong read. I can town-case them for you if you want, but there are numerous posts and questions I just dont see coming from scum. Apparently much of the board agrees with me.

As for trusting Elephant's hunting abilities, I was fine, and am now happy, with who his vote was on. I liked his reads from earlier in the game. But the question is also less relevant to the tactic. The logic of a block is that it reduces randomness in general, not necessarily that I sign on for everything the leader thinks. That is why I have been posting my own thoughts as well....which brings me to

but I have no idea which you'd like to lynch most because you keep outsourcing that decision - basically as if you don't care.

Teacher, You've said a ton of stuff, but it feels to me like you've lacked commitment to anything in particular. Could you explain why? It seems to me like you're doing a lot of sheeping and not a ton of personal hunting.

These quotes struck me as bizarre. I thought my preference list was pretty clear . My vote was on Meji (182), and I said (262) I wanted Meji or Nauci before james. To me, this (not to mention 262 and suggests a pretty clear priority list of Meji, Nauci, James, no? The list changed with Meji's later participation on Saturday night, such that by Sunday evening I was pushing Nauci over Meji [post]325.

Now, as you can tell from my vote, I think we gain the most game relevant info by getting James.

[teacher]

EBWOP: I think my weekend posts make a Meji, Nauci, James priority list plain. 259 makes clear Meji was then my No. 1. 262 tries to get a wagon together, and also says Nauci is higher than James, making the 1, 2, 3 clear.

[teacher]

@Thor - have I answered your question? If not, Im going to try once more. Could you confirm whether I have resolved it? As of Saturday night, 262, my list was 1. Meji, 2. Nauci, 3. James. By Sunday Night, 325, the list was 1. Nauci, 2. James, 3. Meji, due to Meji's answering my reads question and participation and Nauci's AFK. Right now, 339, my list is 1. James, 2. Nauci, 3. Meji, because I didnt buy James's defense and I think flipping James provides info on Flicker's unvote and possibly Oxy and Nauci, whereas I think Nauci's flip is less informative.

[teacher]

@Oxy - you down for the hammer at noon? Its obviously out of my hands now.

[teacher]

WTF Teacher?? I had made it so clear that you are my next highest scumread, and now you're trying to form a town block around me, as long as it's not on you? Is this a last-ditch effort to move a bunch of votes off your scum partner James? Is this an attempt to absolve yourself of responsibility when JB flips town? Is this so insane it can't come from scum? Idk what to do with this (even if I like the other two players you're adding to the block). You also keep referencing how most of the board town-reads me, which I'm not totally sure is true? Without doing a search for every player's most recent reads, I can name Thor and Meji as two players who null read me, at best. I dunno, this is just so ocnfusing coming from you.

• As I have said repeatedly, I get why most people sus'd me, all the more now that I know the site's meta. So I dont hold that against you.
• You are right that Thor and Meji have nulled you. But literally everyone else has towned you. (Oxy 158; Flicker 81; me 182; Nauci 65, 236; NK by inference from 175)
• Again, I can detail my personal town-case on you if desired, but its almost a lock for me. I like the block tactic in general as I find it greatly helps town. So I organize it around someone I think the board can accept.
• Im not trying to get you off James - see 339. Im just trying to provide my own reads - not disowning resposnibility. And I accept my share of responsibility IF he flips town.
• I do think, and hope, it shows non-scum on my part because (1) I dont think scum tries to organize a block in general, (2) particularly around someone who scums them. But you can WIFOM this as you wish

[teacher]

the hammer is in. Good luck everyone tonight.

[teacher]

In the twilight hours, I suggest my inferences from the weekend/today's play. I leave it to the board to read into my own conduct.
If James flips SCUM: I find Flicker's unvote questionable. I wonder about Oxy's half-hearted attempt to start other wagons. And I have questions about the early Nauci love affair.
If James flips Village: Likely at least one scum was on the wagon. I particularly wonder about NK's role in the wagon and the case. Strengthens Flicker and Oxy townread. Thor is more sus, but I still cannot read him if you paid me.
Regardless of flip: Nauci and Meji stayed on vanity wagons throughout the late activity.

[teacher]

If this flips town, lynch, in this order: Meji

Please explain?

Others, I think twilight reads based on hypo scum!James and town!James are helpful. Please to provide?

[teacher]

From yesterday's end, I have 1. NK, 2. Nauci/Meji (order intentional), and 4. Flicker as suspects. I will sheep Elephant. VOTE: Not Known.

[teacher]

@Nauci - can we get an explanation of AFK from Friday through Monday after heavy activity?

[teacher]

Finally, night (no)kill analysis: I dont see a way mafia no kills N-1 unless all the common suspects are way off. Since I find that implausible, I believe we have a doctor. If so, and if (s)he outs, (s)he guarantees his/her death tonight but provides almost game-locking info. Put another way, I am wondering about the following:

• Doctor claim tomorrow through Friday WITHOUT IDENTIFYING SAVE, to see if there are any counterclaims. If cc, narrowed suspect range to two, and other pr does not identify. Even mislynch guarantees scum identified, so at worst game is 4:1 at end of day 3 and most outcomes are likely better than that.
  
• If no cc, doc slot is lock town. On Friday-Sunday, other power role claim still WITHOUT DOCTOR IDENTIFYING SAVE. If cc -- two suspects for the day's lynch. IF a claimaint was saved by doc, scum identified. Even if not, doc can lock-town two spots by identifying save, and any mislynch identifies scum. Again, puts town at worst 4:1 at end of day 3, with two town spots locked.
  
• If, on Sunday, both prs are identified without ccs, we have two spots lock town, and likely 3 (if doctor save not other pr role). D2 mislynch among the remaining 5-6 slots puts town at worst at 5:2 at start of day 3, with at least two and more likely 3 confirmed towns, and one night of work by the cop/tracker/neapolitan).

This probably appears scummy, as it hunts for PR identification. But I dont see how this system doesnt make the game lock town. Its a genuine question whether we should follow it. Show me the flaws (and dont anyone claim until tomorrow/the lack of flaws is confirmed). Definitely want Thor to comment in his IC role.

[teacher]

Idk about mass claiming.

Maybe tracker/not tracker claims, and/or hypothetical claims after? I have to think on this.

To be clear, I am NOT seeking mass-claiming, but staggered claiming to time counterclaims.

First (Thur-Friday) Doctor(s) claim. If cc - both identify saves, lynch among. If no cc, move on. If no doc claim at all, gain info that general suspect list likely off.

Second (Sat-Sun), if doctor identified, other pr claim. If cc - Doctor then ID save (lock-town), and lynch among ccs (unless one is saved by dr. Then lynch other). If no cc by end of sunday - 2 towns confirmed. 3 if doctor didnt save other pr. Known!town block grinds down mafia.

Again, only a theory. But I think it works.

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote. Not claiming or not claiming any position until we confirm the underlying theory - today's discussion. I take it Not Known agrees with it. Anyone else?

[teacher]

EBWOP. Not claiming or disclaiming any position until we confirm the underlying theory - today's discussion.

Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?

[teacher]

Not Known - I think the theory is better than a massclaim. Do you agree? Do you see holes in it?

I see one giant hole in it... there are two roles who can stop a kill, not just one.

Point taken. Let me see how it holds up assuming a jailkeeper and not a doctor.

[teacher]

So I think the theory holds up whether we have a doctor or jailkeeper:
(a) Doctor explained in 369 and 375
(b) Jailkeeper works much the same way:

First, Jailkeepers claim Thur-Friday WITHOUT identifying action. If cc - identify action for info. (if both claim the other, no more info; if one claims a third, mafia third claim could be contradicted if pr, town third claim locks a town slot or reveals 2d mafia) Regardless, lynch among claimants for guaranteed 4:1 with action by alternative power role. If no cc, then confirmed town slot WITHOUT identifying action.

Second, Sat-Sun, if no jailkeeper cc, then other power role claim. If cc - identify action and result for info. At this point, jailkeeper can absolutely identify mafia. IF it is one of the claimants, the claimed result will be wrong. IF it is not one of the claimants, he almost certainly held mafia.

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both). If no claim at all, we know our suspect list is off. IF claims, resolve as per above.

Who agrees or disagrees?

[teacher]

Nauci - Im more than open to being wrong on my theory, but I think this is an exceptional situation where the protective role identifying in the progression stated locks the game. A tracker first claim (and likely counterclaim) does not provide the lock. Im serious here, please disprove the line set forth in 386 - I dont see it, but I am certainly biased.

[teacher]

@notknown, I appreciate your agreement, but would have preferred to have the theory validated.

@board - please dont CC not known. He could be pr protective hunting now. Validate the theory first. IF it holds up today, CC (if applicable) tomorrow.

PEDIT: Elephant - mafia can pass on the night. But if they did, it signifies the suspect list is way off.

[teacher]

Ok. I claimed Jailkeeper.
Next... everyone says "I CC" or "I don't CC"
Tracker or Doctor are NOT counterclaims.

Do not do this until theory validated.

[teacher]

we already have a claim, teacher. If you have a pr that directly contradicts NK being a jailkeeper, claim it or forever hold your peace. I think everyone else should stfu until people do that or say they arent claiming.

We do, and it works with my theory. But Im still not sure my theory works. If my theory doesnt work, then this could be pr hunting by a common suspect. So I would appreciate you saying whether my theory is valid or not in your opinion. I do not claim or disclaim any role right now.

[teacher]

For example, I just noticed a possibility that i had not considered, and now need to play out. What if a Jailkeeper claim (we have one) is met by a doctor cc. Have to play that out....Will post when analyzed.

[teacher]

Flicker has another correct point I also need to game.....

[teacher]

I don't know what to make of NK15's claim - both the content, or how fast he did it. Thoughts, anyone?

The speed with which he did it -- without having the theory validated -- suggests scum to me. You all have pointed out holes already, though I need to game them to see if they are in fact holes. IF there are wholes, identifying the protective role first does not help town, but hurts it. Thus, it could be protective role hunting.

Please NOBODY cc OR disclaim while I think on the A2 setup (since a jailkeeper claim and doc claim are NOT in fact counterclaims).

[teacher]

Im still trying to game out A2 and see if theres a lock way to do this. I dont want this to be a protective pr hunt. So Im going to try to gamesolve.

Failing that, Im going to try to determine whether it helps or hurts town to respond to the claim at all.

Im not going to respond at the speed you want, because speed encourages misdecisions. Indeed, just as NK's speed made me suspect his claim, your insistence on it is making me suspect you. I will post my reflections when they are secure.

[teacher]

MY earlier general theory does not work because of C2 and A2 combined, as best I can tell. Or it gets too unwieldy for me to play out well.

So what to do about the fact that we have a claim that --

if true

-- would put us in Row 2 of the setup? Should we counter it or not? I think yes, in the way Oxy suggests. What does the board think of the below?

Oxy's Suggestion

Countering the extant claim at the first level reveals a (cop, neopolitan, jailkeeper). If there is a counter, there are 2 suspects. They reveal actions for info. Lynch among them for a lock scum ID by day 3 at worst (mislynch), PLUS the info from the true PR. At worst, after night 3, it is 3:1, with hopefully usable info.

But if no counterclaim from those powers, NK's claim could still be falsified if there is a tracker AND a doctor - C3 as oxy identifies in 418. But its not as unlikely as he claims. At this stage, it is exactly a 25% chance. So how to address this: presumably a mass "pr no pr claim" without identifying role, as this would (a) validate NK's claim in full if 0-1 pr claims; (b) create a 3 suspect pool if 2pr claims; (c) create a 4 suspect pool INCLUDING BOTH MAFIA if 3pr claims. Option c is guaranteed lock town, so cannot happen. Playing out options A-B further:

• No PR claim (option A): NK is lock town, and kept mafia (no night kill assumption). He reveals action. Board kills target. D3 begins at 5:1. Good.
• One PR claim: NK is now lock town. The other claimaint is probably real too (A2, B2), but could still be false because of C2. NK leads townblock that other claimant MUST follow for all days. Have alternative PR say reveal role and action.
  • IF claimed doctor and NK dies N2, claimant scum. Again D4 begins 3:1.
  • If claimant tracker, NK will die N2. Must assess reasonability of tracker's N1 and n2 actions.
• Two PR claim: clear three suspect pool. Select board-cleared person (Elephant?) to receive PMs from two claimaints identifying roles. A contradiction narrows it to two suspects. If they claim consistent with C3, then there remain three suspects. Doctor reveals. Mafia must kill him, so lynch among remaining two. If mislynch, D3 lynch is guaranteed scum (doctor if doctor survives night; 3d claimant if doctor dies). Worst case-D4 starts 3:1 with info.

If this gets validated, I will respond in the manner Oxy desires.

[teacher]

I agree. I assume you are talking about the last option in my gameout. In that situation, none of the pr claims are cleared. We must clear though use of someone who scans town but has not claimed PR. But I admit my head is hurting right now from trying to play this out so much. I will wait to see what IC suggests, but Im inclined to buy into your plan as you can tell.

[teacher]

A few thoughts, while we're still trying to figure this out.

correct, c3 is the one setup where it doesn't clear. scum would have to be very lucky to hit this exactly.

After stewing on this, it wouldn't actually be that much luck? Scum knows which column we're in, so if they have no power roles then, based on last night, they know it's c2 or c3. If neither was jailkept, then they can guess it's a more than 50% chance it's c3. Risky, but the odds are technically in their favor.

MY earlier general theory does not work because of C2 and A2 combined, as best I can tell. Or it gets too unwieldy for me to play out well.

So what to do about the fact that we have a claim that --

if true

-- would put us in Row 2 of the setup? Should we counter it or not? I think yes, in the way Oxy suggests. What does the board think of the below?

Oxy's Suggestion

Countering the extant claim at the first level reveals a (cop, neopolitan, jailkeeper). If there is a counter, there are 2 suspects. They reveal actions for info. Lynch among them for a lock scum ID by day 3 at worst (mislynch), PLUS the info from the true PR. At worst, after night 3, it is 3:1, with hopefully usable info.

But if no counterclaim from those powers, NK's claim could still be falsified if there is a tracker AND a doctor - C3 as oxy identifies in 418. But its not as unlikely as he claims. At this stage, it is exactly a 25% chance. So how to address this: presumably a mass "pr no pr claim" without identifying role, as this would (a) validate NK's claim in full if 0-1 pr claims; (b) create a 3 suspect pool if 2pr claims; (c) create a 4 suspect pool INCLUDING BOTH MAFIA if 3pr claims. Option c is guaranteed lock town, so cannot happen. Playing out options A-B further:

• No PR claim (option A): NK is lock town, and kept mafia (no night kill assumption). He reveals action. Board kills target. D3 begins at 5:1. Good.
• One PR claim: NK is now lock town. The other claimaint is probably real too (A2, B2), but could still be false because of C2. NK leads townblock that other claimant MUST follow for all days. Have alternative PR say reveal role and action.
  • IF claimed doctor and NK dies N2, claimant scum. Again D4 begins 3:1.
  • If claimant tracker, NK will die N2. Must assess reasonability of tracker's N1 and n2 actions.
• Two PR claim: clear three suspect pool. Select board-cleared person (Elephant?) to receive PMs from two claimaints identifying roles. A contradiction narrows it to two suspects. If they claim consistent with C3, then there remain three suspects. Doctor reveals. Mafia must kill him, so lynch among remaining two. If mislynch, D3 lynch is guaranteed scum (doctor if doctor survives night; 3d claimant if doctor dies). Worst case-D4 starts 3:1 with info.

If this gets validated, I will respond in the manner Oxy desires.

I'm finding a couple problems. In A, NK15 could have kept town. Killing the target could be a mislynch, leading to NK15's night kill, and we're down to 0-1 PRs and no useful information from NK15. Also it'd be 3:2 if that's the case. In B, I don't think PMs are allowed.

A is a valid issue, but minor and does not dissuade me; B is not a valid issue (though apparently correct, my apologies).

A. NK only PR claim at all: This situation requires no other pr, so no other save.

Assume

mafia attempted to kill night one (I really dont see why they wouldnt). The odds that Mafia AND NK targeted the same individual are roughly 2.4% (1/7 * 1/6) - vanishingly small. And that 2.4% can be reduced to about null further when NK announces whom he held. If he held common suspect, he almost certainly held the mafia actor as mafia would be unlikely to eliminate a potential mislynch target N1. If NK held a mostly-towned slot, likely (but less certain) he held town because Mafia would PR hunt among townies N1. At least this creates a two-town block, if the saved is required to follow NK.

B. OK, so the PM-elimination cant work. By virtue of PEdits then, the multi claim will have to be consistent with C3 to avoid narrowing the suspects to 2. Play as per 421 where the lynch is between NK and the non-doctor claimant. Worst case result is D4 start with 3:1 + info.

Im still down to follow Oxy's suggestion.

[teacher]

By the way, @Thor, Im taking it from the board silence that this requires an IC to sort out. Good luck!

[teacher]

Absent a response from Thor, do people want to proceed with Oxy's proposal? I do. I am going to be V/LA beginning Friday, so I think would be good to get some action.

[teacher]

I do not counterclaim. (Reminder since it’s been a while. Only C.C. if cop, Neapolitan, or JK)

[teacher]

I must have missed severa (elephant and flicker offhand - I know they posted but u I didn’t think they responded)

[teacher]

VOTE: Nauci, Meji, Thor, Flicker.

[teacher]

Let's dance with the lawyer.

Case me bro. I know what the case was in the 100s. I dont know it now, though I know enough people share it.

[teacher]

I targeted a possible nightkill.
Thor.

Damn it. When I was playing out who you targeted and what it would mean, this was the one position I did not want. Because I disagree with your interpretation. I think this is more NAI than town.

Let me Scum!case (even though he is in my fourth slot for a reason.)

• Basically the entire board had said he was impossible to read, but they like him (basically PoEt-town rather than actual town). As a result, Mafia with one heavy suspect would be more likely to act through him rather than the suspect, so that logic trackers/JK fail.
  
• He was on the James wagon, where I believe one scum is. (I get the Nauci-Meji case, but it just doesnt strike me as artificial distancing for whatever reason.
  
• In fact, I think he blew up the James wagon in a way that is SLIGHTLY different from his general playstyle. This is a meta- rather than an line-by-line analysis, but I think Thor repeated himself and was more dismissive AT MORE LENGTH of James than he was with other players. Compare his reaction to James's FoS to Elephant's FoS.

Now, let me acknowledge the obvious Town!case: Scum dont want experienced hunter and Thor is a very unlikely mislynch given usefulness of even Scum!IC for answering questions like yesterdays (as shown by the lack of activity).

[teacher]

By the way, elephant -- baaaa. IF you want me to case my preferred list, I can.

[teacher]

For what is happening in this game right now.

Im engaging this, purely from an academic standpoint, to better appreciate the logic of your approach. It is different than mine (421), but I wasnt wedded to my own.

Scum also know whether there is a Doctor or a Tracker or no other PR - which means now scum has a lot more information than town does (again, showing it was not a good idea to claim if NK is town)

I absolutely agree with this. I wish NK hadnt claimed. I tried to stress that my theory was me reacting to what is an unexpected N1 result with offthecuff attempts at gamesolving. But...... Scum now has information that town can get (by outing other PR/no PR). Isnt it beneficial for town to at least try to bring that to equilibrium?

Let me explain. AT this point, with a day's reflection I think DR (if A2) should absolutely not out, ever. Wait to see if NK is countered, or if NK is persuasively cased. (I dont like the quick claim; I dont like the pressuring from NK-Oxy on responding, and I dont like the logic behind a Thor N1 jail, BUT I DONT THINK THAT IS A PERSUASIVE CASE). If he is not countered , weigh whether or not saving NK prevents scum kill or wastes a save on a maf and decide for yourself. In other words, I am not positive about this:

[DR] should protect NK

Remember, again, Scum know if theres a doctor. They also know if NK is lying (they know if it is Scum!NK, or if Scum!thor was the killer, or if Town!Thor was the target). If they know theres a doctor, they may decide not to target NK. But the doctor's chances of a successful save off of NK are also low. Bottom line - I dont think its as lock of a case to save NK as Thor suggest, but I also dont think it should be a subject of discussion. Doctor should decide for himself, weighing these variables, without providing indication to the board so as not to tell scum.

But why not have Tracker (if B2) out after the waiting period? It negates the extra power of the scumrolecop. (who knows, scum may even already know this identity). It provides a pretty darn town (but not lock, because C2) position to the board and slightly more towns NK's claim as being a consistent setup. And it makes the mafia have to choose a lynch between two power roles, so known!likelytown in D3 as well? These are genuine questions. Im not sure its better. Im providing the reasons it may be. I havent even weighed it myself.

[teacher]

When did I become a top scumspect for you exactly?

You're not, at all. You went from 4 to 3 because NK removed himself. You're PoE potential scum. I cannot read you remotely. My case is (1)agreement that there's scum on the wagon, (2) believing elephant and Oxy are less likely, (3) thinking NK is still 50/50 but unlynchable, (4) knowing Im town, and (6) my gut meta on the you-james interactions, and (5) the no-night kill (null). I would much rather lynch in Nauci, Meji, but would be willing to hammer you if it is a consensus lynch (which I highly doubt it ever will be). BTW, in case youre implying its OMGUS, I said this in twilight before you turned to me. 352.

my presented case

So its a VCA with agreement on points 1-3 above. Fair. Cant dispute that. Do I at least get points for "Case me bro" -- made me want a taser.

[teacher]

I agree that your efforts helped convince people to do non beneficial town play by even discussing claiming when there was no actual benefit to it.

Again, I cant dispute that NK played this wrong. But I dont think I could have been more clear that people shouldnt do it until the theory was validated. So convince? TBH, as you can tell from my posting levels, Im a bit addicted right now. Nobody was posting, and I thought I had a gamesolve. Throwing scum!shade at me for another player's actions contrary to my explicit instructions (including a warning that my post could accomplish scum goals if wrong) seems beneath you, though understandable if you want me lynched.

This is a lot of words that I think equates to "a JKer, if one exists other than NK, should counter claim."

No. It was me saying I was wrong in 421, and doctor should never ever claim. We do agree. I was trying to show a new agreement, as a transition to a disagreement.

You don't think it should be a discussion but are taking pains to discuss it.
Okay...?

Im listing the variables I would consider if I am doctor. If anyone thinks there are other variables, I think they should raise them, so Doctor can make most informed decision on their own. My point is that I dont think WEIGHING them, offering suggested ACTIONS is helpful, as it guides scum. Essentially the same thing I was doing in twilight yesterday -- obtain the wisdom of the commons for the benefit of PRs.

I see no benefit [to tracker claim].

I agree. In case you cant tell, Im a think aloud person when in groups. I really believe in communal wisdom - that 4 people will always make a better decision than 1. Maybe I could have come to the same conclusions myself, maybe not. I had not thought of the wagon info effect, and am not sure I would have for a bit - (I also require separation to have these 2d order thoughts, something Im not giving myself due to the addiction, but the weekend v/la should help.)

[teacher]

VOTE: Meji. Cases coming.

[teacher]

@Oxy - To be honest, anything that gets Thor providing more analysis of more slots works for me. I tried yesterday and got the cold shoulder (not wanting to slow a wagon? I dont know). For me, failure to provide board reads today will be pretty scum indicative. And if a 1v1 leads to that.....

[teacher]

My Nauci Case

• Early game fluffing. BUT had played with TGP before 8 and ignored my TGP meta question 139 made before he was VLA. Both are weak grounds, as she had discussed TGP's meta before my question. I was more seeking an inconsistency.
  
• But there is in fact an inconsistency. Nauci's first discussion of TGP says that she remembers nothing. 26. But then she tries to build a scum case from her previous game. 65. Inconsistency all the more suspicious because James says this is TGP's common Town!meta. 143 THIS is my biggest issue, along with
  
• the vanity wagon on me both early when Thor and JB's responses indicated I would not be gaining traction, and later, when
  
• Providing intent to L-1 but doesnt, while encouraging early L-1s -- i.e. a contradictory push to the JB wagon while staying off it (to avoid suspicion?) 227
  
• What I view as a slightly misreppy attempt to add onto the valid early scumcase on me (91)
  
• Possible contradiction between 65 ("activity+content based") and encouragement of 1v1s compared to 96 "too tryhard" complaining about activity.
  
• Dont know what to make of complete disappearance before break. Real life happens, and Im glad youre through withdrawal and wish you the best on the continued recovery generally. But Im quite surprised that housebound Nauci would not turn to this at somepoint for relief. This is null, I debated not listing, but it is a question in my mind if I am honest.

Thats the quick and dirty from an ISO.

[teacher]

I have real life for several hours, now, so full responses and Meji case will be delayed. But:

@Thor: I think 1 on wagon likely. If I havent made it clear, I still sus NK more than you even with claim. I just cant vote him or include him in a proffered list. And with the biggest suspect gone, Oxy and Elephant still reduce the amount of the minority left for you. My biggest issue with you is that I feel like you are a good reader but arent explaining outside of lynch desires. Towncasing people helps town too.

@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.

@Oxy: I agree thor has provides reads. He hasnt provided reasoning on the towns. Again, wisdom of commons. Plus more detail = more info = a record to weigh against in future days.

@Flicker: If nauci did go back to game (effort), I see no reason why she would not also read at least one town!NGP game for comparison and realize NAI per James. I need to meta TGP myself to determine weight.

Happy hunting people.

[teacher]

Assume NK + Oxy team, with NK submitting actions. He knows theres a Protective PR so can early claim and call the cc suspect for delay. He and oxy push massclaim in PR hunt. Achieve scum goals despite my warning. Undercut by NK immediately realizing JK hole in my first theory. Breadcrumbing confirmed later claim supports town.

Also likely 1 on wagon = appr. 55%? I see (Nauci Meji) as potential, as suggested by lynch list. Indeed, Flicker's moving Meji up for me.

Bottom line, I guess Im not getting what about my ordering isnt making sense. But Im also not getting why its relevant. I sus you fourth on an 7 player board - can I be any more clear that I have no fracking idea what you are.

PEDIT: Oxy is discussing advanced Bayesian theory and is right. But again, relevance?

[teacher]

@Flicker:

HE didnt confirm breadcrumbing. But his early reaction my doctor only protective role (twice pointing out JK possibility without saying it) is breadcruming. And confirmed should be confirms -- this preclaim behavior supports the claim.

The second quote is to Thor. Your point was valid.

[teacher]

Even as the alt wagon rn, I'll VOTE: unvote. My intent is there but I want to take hammer off table.

[teacher]

. Thor is lock scum. Explanation after I put my kids to sleep. Can’t believe I didn’t see it til now.

[teacher]

Sorry to hear that Oxy. Good luck with the IRL stuff. My kids just hit their bedtime and are down. But this is going to take me a bitch of a long time to post, because (as my failed links have shown before) I kinda suck at the HTML stuff.

I will say at the outset that my theory depends on two critical assumptions, both of which I think are almost certainly valid, but neither of which I shall justify without direct questions, and possibly not even then:
1. Mafia attempted nightkill
2. NK's claim is true.

As you know, 2 is new for me. So are several of the other supports. It took the busy afternoon trying to do other things with my conscious mind to let something shake loose. And that is.....

[teacher]

First, Im sorry, I fucked up. In typing it up, I realized that my case depended on something only I know. The fact that I revealed I had a lock case likely tells Thor and his partner that information. Thus, I slipped. My bad.

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere. This, plus the fact that most of the board hasnt countered NK, basically proves his claim. This is why my case assumed that, and why I earlier wouldnt explain it until I realized the slip writing the case. By the way, I can point to several attempted breadcrumbs yesterday (like the response to Nauci's newb!scum pointing out that it applied to newb!prs, and also the willingness to build a block on a spot sussing me) to confirm my own claim. Now I will write the case with that info public.

[teacher]

My 451 came at trying to interpret the no kill + Thor Jail from the wrong perspective. From the perspective of Thor, as detailed there, its fairly null. But when approached from the perspective of NK and/or the mafia, it becomes alot more interesting.

NK AND Mafia: As I detailed yesterday, there is only a 2.4% chance that Mafia and NK BOTH hit Town!Thor. But there is a 14.2% chance NK hit Scum!Thor. Thus, this information alone tells us that Thor is six times more likely to be scum than mafia.

Mafia standing alone: Now, put yourselves in the position of the mafia deciding who to lynch. You want to leave scummed townies alive as mislynch targets. As I see it, your lynch pool at end of day is Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor. I pause here to note that even at this point, the odds of Mafia trying to lynch Thor are 33% EVEN assuming the board has towned the second mafia slot -- which basically reduces the chances of both Mafia and NK actually doing it to 0. Thor is lock scum at this point. But it gets worse. How, as mafia, do you not try to Elephant, when I am trying to build a block around him. Seriously. Thus, even the 33% is generous.

Now, there is more that could be said. But it doesnt need to be said now. So I wont.

VOTE: Thor

Do not quick lynch this though. There is more meta stuff I want to share before day's end in case I die tonight.

[teacher]

EBWOP

My 451 came at trying to interpret the no kill + Thor Jail from the wrong perspective. From the perspective of Thor, as detailed there, its fairly null. But when approached from the perspective of NK and/or the mafia, it becomes alot more interesting.

NK AND Mafia: As I detailed yesterday, there is only a 2.4% chance that Mafia and NK BOTH hit Town!Thor. But there is a 14.2% chance NK hit Scum!Thor. Thus, this information alone tells us that Thor is six times more likely to be scum than TOWN.

Mafia standing alone: Now, put yourselves in the position of the mafia deciding who to lynch. You want to leave scummed townies alive as mislynch targets. As I see it, your lynch pool at end of day is Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor. I pause here to note that even at this point, the odds of Mafia trying to lynch Thor are 33% EVEN assuming the board has towned the second mafia slot -- which basically reduces the chances of both Mafia and NK actually doing it to 0. Thor is lock scum at this point. But it gets worse. How, as mafia, do you not try to Elephant, when I am trying to build a block around him. Seriously. Thus, even the 33% is generous.

Now, there is more that could be said. But it doesnt need to be said now. So I wont.

VOTE: Thor

Do not quick lynch this though. There is more meta stuff I want to share before day's end in case I die tonight.[/quote]

[teacher]

Also, if there is a pr somewhere that hasn't claimed, I think it's bloody well time.

Agreed. The only counter that is remotely interesting is Nauci. Any other counter simply tells us we have the scum team locked.

[teacher]

True. I realized that after writing it, though again I disagree on the 8 and think its closer to 6, because I dont think (Elephant Oxy Flicker Thor) are equal at all. Perhaps it will also be necessary for me to explain the other game-specific analysis aspects of the Thor case. Its still lock scum.

But Im not going to share that info. In fact, Im going to ask @Nauci and @Meji to make the cases after the ccs. But its CC time board.

[teacher]

So, reevaluating for that point makes Thor about 3 times more likely to be scum than town based on statistics. (NK said he was trying to save town, but does not have an overlapping town pool). That alone is enough for a lynch to me, but theres also the game mechanics (and I mean alot more than I included in my reasons for sussing Thor earlier.

CC time (putitng this at the bottom of all my posts until we get no ccs or a cc from all spots).

[teacher]

low probability things do occur.

No disagreement. Its the comparison that matters here, and that makes Thor so drastically likely to be scum. At 3 times more likely, the game tells become damning. But I need sleep - as my inability to do basic gamesolving, or not slip, has basically given away. My RL is a bit like yours rn. Seriously, good luck to you. Im signing off for the

COUNTERCLAIM PHASE.

[teacher]

You should consider that to be true. Youre approaching from NK's PoV exclusively.

Approaching it from board PoV (not any position) is what brings the odds lower. The Mafia kill selection is an independent event to NK. Its odds of being the same as NKs represent the same multiplier of scum!Thor chances.

ccs anyone?

[teacher]

His math case is shockingly silly though.

Its not just a math case, though. I just havent laid out the game case because math is 3:1 scum!you.

[teacher]

I dont have time this morning to explain it. Lets get through any counterclaims. I will lay out the game case after.

But you just added to the game case. Explain how the current state of play points to Oxy/Elephant rather than Meji/Nauci? Seems like trying to redirect from a partner.

[teacher]

No. Jail means jail - no other action. I couldnt track. Doc couldnt save. Rolecop couldnt cop. Except roleblock resolves first (we dont have one here).

[teacher]

Everything is really interesting reading. I am literally swamped today. And will be v/la tomorrow during the day. I promise you all I will post here tomorrow night my actual analysis.

For now, I want to stick in a quick apology for my D2, because it has made this one of the odder mafia situations I have seen. I pulled an allnighter Tuesday and was brainfried Wed/Thur. That is why my gamesolving was like swiss cheese. It could have been hilarious, but I also feel bad. I hope you all are having fun, but if you feel like the table is sideways: Its on me, and I apologize. In other words, while Im still convinced Thor is scum, I also think hes right that I played terrible today so........sorry.

That said, one thing to Oxy, I think you took my analysis from 600% to 300%, not 20%. Im going to think about it after I sleep tonight, because even I have had enough with brainfried me. But the problem is that your 20% assumes the identify mafia NK as part of its calculation, rather than factoring those odds in. In statistics terms, it treats NK's save as a subsequent, dependent event rather than an contemporaneous, independent event.

[teacher]

One quick beg by the way. Its implicit in the host of posts so far, but can everybody simply confirm no other PRs? This will conclusively lock NK at the very least.

[teacher]

And for those questioning my claim -- I appreciate the implied brilliance (because brilliant scum might try some of these moves today) -- but I assure you that it was/is derpiness and I feel like sh** about it.

I dont have time to link but look through my posts yesterday and you should see breadcrumbing exactly like what I described with james. I said my vote hurt TOWN in the 80s because PR. I note that nauci correctly diagnosed my nervousness about lynched, but misdiagnosed the cause in the 110s - claiming newbPR. I tried to get people to commit to a block around a slot sussing me because I knew I couldnt be lynched, and would have built a block for town. Finally, I tried to get broad views during twilight to decide what to do with my action.

No, Im not a lock. But try to explain those statements - particularly building a block - as scum. The only way to do it is to conclude that I am a team with elephant. Now I will ask you how likely that is. compared to your reads on other players.

I have to run. One thing I will say is that if we get an affirmative no counterclaim to NK is I will lay out my case and then sheep him to whomever he picks.

[teacher]

Im on mobile but I will through one last out there: Im thinking that Meji might still make the most sense to kill, while Thor gets jailed again. Im not at all sure and not going to try to decide before I write it ALL up, because writing is where I see errors in thinking, and I want to think with a clear head. Have a good start to yalls weekends. PLEASE lock NK so we can make townblock.

[teacher]

NK why was Thor the town night save? why not elephant? Just curious.

[teacher]

I had an unexpected gap when home (Kids had unplanned playdate). I started to write the Thor scumcase, but realized its deficiencies in the statistics. The statistics element bleeds out once you assume NK was trying to save in a similar townpool. It makes still makes it more likely Thor is mafia than town, but only marginally so. Oxy was basically right that it’s 20% more likely that there is scum!Thor than town!thor based on math.

I still scum Thor hard, but without the statistics, my read is not enough to lynch. He is an experienced player who is very skilled with words and timing (exactly why I tracked him – I knew that I would never read him to certainty, so wanted to solve mechanically). I will share the details of my readcase tomorrow because I think it helps advance the game regardless, so please don’t hammer.

My proposal is to lynch Meji. I completely agree with the scumcase made by others. I wasn’t trying to hard abort their wagon. On a side note—Thor’s attempted counterwagon on me yesterday, and subsequent push away from Meji today—are parts of my scumcase on him.

If Meji flips scum, jail Thor. If there is a kill, Thor is locktown along with one PR left. If there is no kill – either Thor is scum or mafia is trying to incriminate him, but regardless more villagers.

If Meji flips town, NK and I have both have to try to target different scum. But we cant announce which. Any thoughts on how to coordinate that?

[teacher]

Also, please Confirm no counterclaims to NK. Get one lock town now. And build a townblock on him.

[teacher]

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere.

The way I read this is, you're saying that NK15

didn't

jailkeep Thor last night, because "he went nowhere" is a different result than "I couldn't see his actions (if any)." I don't see how this (or any of your other arguments) makes Thor guaranteed scum. Could you clarify this, please?

Im writing up my analysis post, but thought I should respond to this. Outside of the game, I confirmed with appropriate people that I would get the "he went nowhere" result if he was jailkept. This is not part of my case, but wanted to explain.

@Flicker - youre the only spot to declare no CC to NK (or me). Could you? If youre a doctor, that makes me or NK both immediately suspect (C3; A2). If youre VT/Maf, we can at least clear NK.

[teacher]

So below is my actual analysis since Daybreak/Wednesday, and my Thor case. I apologize for the wall up front.
Also, before detailing the analysis, I will provide reads here, with the ordering within columns intentional.

Likely scum

: Meji, Thor

PoE from scummy to townie

: Flicker, Nauci, Elephant, Oxy

Here is the analysis:

• I find Nauci to be more townie based on their repeated posts at daybreak urging no identification of protective PR. I also like her pointing out that Meji (who tunned her D1) isn’t jumping on her absence, despite appearing right after daybreak.
  
• I strongly suspect Meji. I find the claim 494 of having wanted to make a James defense untrue, because they had over 50 hours in which to do so after 237. Seems to me to be a case of scum trying to build towncred while letting a mislynch go. (total aside – I think scum!Meji’s VT claim further supports my own. Scum would have known if we were in C2, and if they could have claimed a pr without contradiction.) But who is with Meji?
  • I see next to no possibility of a Meji-Flicker scumteam. Flicker’s vote on Meji during a building wagon today cuts pretty strongly against that. Same logic applies to Oxy and Elephant.
    
  • I see only a very slight possibility of a Meji-Nauci scumteam. Meji’s tunnel on Nauci seemed too early, and too strong, to be pure distancing. Plus Nauci is calling attention to the fact that Meji isn’t continuing the tunnel.
    
  • I see a strong possibility of a Meji-Thor scumteam. Thor scums Meji D1, but only after the James Wagon has reached L-1. Could be trying to build towncred for after a mislynch. This seems especially true by how much Thor is ignoring the D1 Meji read now and trying to focus attention elsewhere.
• I also suspect Thor, as is apparent from the last bullet point, and the case below.

This brings me to who to lynch. I am fully persuaded by the association analysis above that we should kill Thor. Why, if I suspect Meji more? A Meji flip tells us nothing – if Meji is scum, Thor must be too; if Meji is town, no info gained. In contrast, a Thor flip tells us something – if Thor is scum, Meji likely is too but I can track someone else; If Thor is town, I think Meji is too since I don’t see another partner. This flip would make me want to look at an entirely new set in the PoE pool .

Thus, my bottom line before my Thor case is that he is my preferred lynch. But I will sheep NK entirely once no cc is confirmed by Flicker.

.

The Thor Case

First, I’ll acknowledge what everyone else has. I am dealing with a veteran who is very good with words, and also with timing. Its going to be hard as hell to read him. Some of the reads below will likely feel forced. But it’s the best I can do. I will say that I tried to approach the game-read from a neutral POV since the statistics were off.

Second, let me deal with those statistics – which is what got me started down the path of scumming Thor. As I said yesterday, the statistics still make Thor scummy, but only by about 20%. Im not going to break this down, but it’s a matter of applying common sense within the town-lynch and town-save pools rather than doing it on pure math without common sense (which would be 300%). If you want the breakdown, ask, but the bottom line is it makes Thor slightly more likely to be scum.

Third, alright, we are down to it. Here are game factors I find scummy. The list below is not in any particular order, but rather as I analyzed it. Im going to spoil it just because this is enough of a wall.

Spoiler:

• Post 439 is the biggest part of the case, for a few reasons. First, Thor says his issues with “Nauci
  and
  Meji look valid.” I’ll pause before discussing the “and” to note that Thor puts Nauci first, even though the board at this point (and Thor previously) focused on Meji – odd? Second, turning to the “and” point, it is critical to note that Thor votes me and
  towns Oxy and Elephant
  . Thus, in this post, Thor says he suspects (Me, Nauci, Meji) and towns (Oxy, Elephant). BUT, when I claim PR, he entirely ignores his earlier suspicions to try to lynch in his town pool 525???? This is scum still trying to avoid a partner lynch.
  • Just for completeness, I will point out that Oxy questioned Thor on this, and Thor responded that he was relying on his read that one scum was on the Wagon, asking “Why should I reevaluate”. 547. Well the answer is obvious – because the two most likely scum on the wagon have now claimed PR. With new information, is it still just as likely that a scum is on the wagon, or is it more likely that BOTH your previous suspects are off. Only Scum!Thor refuses to reevaluate his initial assumption that one scum must be on wagon. Elephant’s 552 makes this point, echoed by NK 555
    
  • As an aside, I found the willingness to completely ignore Meji and jump to me (before my claim) is a little surprising even with his wagon assumption compared to his D1, which not only suss’ed Meji – 238– but null-defended me. (e.g., 80, 99, 125). But to go past NK, Me, AND Meji/Nauci (previously scumread) to Oxy just seems….Scum.
  .
  
• Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.
  
  
  
• Post 242 just rubbed me the wrong way if Thor is town. Maybe its true that he was null on every single spot other than James and Meji. But I find that hard to believe, which is why I pushed back. He has to have some town instincts even if he has no certainty. And if he does, and is not sharing them – is that helpful Town!IC behavior??? Or is it more likely Scum!IC depriving town of more expert assessments? I think the latter.
  
  
  
• Post 274 is contradicted by his (lack of) action after Flicker unvotes. Thor is saying he wants James or Meji lynched, but wont switch to Meji because the wagon is shorter. But once Flicker unvotes 333, Thor’s own vote determines what wagon is longer. Thor sees the unvote and posts (335), but does not switch.
  
  
  
• Thor’s answer 436 to missing the Elephant question 80 is suspect. He says he either missed it or would have been pithy. Well, he wasn’t pithy. And I don’t think he missed it, because it was repeated. 107. Sure, he may have decided not to answer. But with repeated questions, I would think he would at least remember the decision.
  
  
  
• As I said yesterday, I find Thor’s responses to James’s FoS (too many to link) to be substantively different than his responses to Elephant’s (e.g., 80, 105, 109). This could be because of the differing politeness of James and Elephant, but could also be mislynch hunting.
  
  
  
• Post 24 is too early to be making significant reads. But three aspects are slightly interesting.
  • Thor asks DDS to sheep him – trying to build a mislynch block?
  • Thor towns Nauci by implication for raising scumdaychat in thread – clearing partner? (cf. Nauci’s 65)
  • Thor says talking mechanics to gamesolve is a fine conversation – but D2 scums me for the same.

No, nothing is really AI here, just some questions.

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote. Didnt realize my vote was still active.

[teacher]

Oxy it’s almost as if you missed my point and wanted NK to do so as well. Because the scum team is likely, but not definitely (Meji Thor) we should flip Thor. Town!Thor basically towns Meji because I see no other likely teammate. Town!Meji tells us nothing about Thor because there is a chance of Thor-PoE team.

[teacher]

Again will sheep NK but only once he reacts to that.

[teacher]

VOTE: Thor.

Flicker can you confirm no cc before hammer, please?

[teacher]

Makes sense. And Thor has not not cc’ed. You were just the only town slot. Thor could of course claim doctor but I would find that amazingly suspect at this point in general (and to me demonstrably false given tracking and tracker
).

[teacher]

@NK - sheeping a case from Teacher When Teacher straight up said that his case wasn't alignment relevant is...bad.

This is also disingenuous. The final sentence of my case is about post 24, not the overall.

Thor, if youre town the whole board at this point has terrible reads, since the top two candidates for rope today will likely be town. TBH, at that point I will be looking at both elephant and oxy. And if my reads are that far off.....

[teacher]

Thats the middle of my case, and why I want to lynch Thor more than Meji. I cant figure out who Meji could be partnered with if not Thor. The only other possibility given voting patterns is Nauci. But thats a hard hard stretch for me, given the early and hard tunnel.

[teacher]

VOTE: unvote.

Tell me more. Because the main reason I want Thor to eat rope is because I believe he tells us more than Meji.

I dont see how Flicker puts his partner at L-2 on a flashwagon after 2 other PRs claim. I dont. But sell me that Meji has another partner, and then I want to lynch the stronger read, rather than the most inormative.

[teacher]

*informative.

[teacher]

VOTE: Thor. Fair enough. Thor, will do after the flip if necessary.

[teacher]

(Just a reminder, since I forgot to say it, L-1)

[teacher]

I promise to get back all up in this shit this weekend

Dont drop the hammer before the lurker delurks.

[teacher]

Well since two are from locktown, the question is whether youre trying to cast shade at Oxy/Nauci. Im guessing Oxy.

Yes he hammered the wagon. But he also pointed out the lack of a secondary wagon on James and tried to join mine on Meji. I also agree with his responses to you.

Like I said, if youre town, I think the board's reads are way off.

But I also wonder if there is a reason the two vanity wagons from yesterday are lurking again.

[teacher]

Is it a hard tunnel? No one has ever taken it seriously. I agree that Meji/Thor makes sense as a team, especially given Thor's reluctance to inspect Meji Fan in the slightest this game day. However, I see Meji/Nauci easily, since we're all ignoring the content of Meji's posts - also, no town person should ever be playing to get ignored! Meji is playing a game of "as long as I'm the second-scummiest at all times, I'll live." Idk if partner is more likely Nauci or Thor (and I'll agree with Oxy that Flicker isn't totally off the table... Flicker is looking worse this game day for SURE), but ignoring the statistics case Meji is clearly the scummiest player.

Agreed Meji is scummier than Thor and would be my lynch WITHOUT associatives.

The Nauci associative is what is pointing me towards Thor. I have a hard time seeing Meji's D1 arguments on Nauci (before clear wagons and counter wagons had formed) as bussing/distancing. I have an even harder time seeing Nauci's repeat no PR identification prayer at start of D2 coming from scum (indeed, Thor was scumming me for my behavior). But I do want Nauci to respond to your questions (regarding reading in her absence) before a hammer drops.

Im not sure we shouldnt lynch Meji. I think Thor is the stronger lynch especially pending his explanation of why he is now down to his townreads on the wagon, rather than the scumreads off it.

[teacher]

Thor is online and active in mafiascum games both immediately before and immediately after daybreak here, but does not talk in Rugby. I find an online and silent IC scummy. I think Town!IC reminds the board of the wisdom of a tracker claim and recommends against any other PR claim. I think Scum!IC is surprised to learn that his actions were blocked and stays silent. Note that Thor previously acknowledges that his silences can be intentional 129.

Thor, please consider this a question. Since you were online and playing at daybreak, why didnt you talk here?

[teacher]

@Thor, I will let elephant speak for himself, but 629 doesnt answer it for me. And the reason is me. You've made quite clear that you THINK my claim is legit, but are VERY FAR from being locked. So.......

You think that at least one scum is on the wagon. Because NK is locked, that scum is in (Me, Oxy, Elephant) from your PoV. I dont get why you move to Oxy rather than Elephant OR off-wagon, when

• Oxy tried to build a counterwagon on Meji, while Elephant didnt;
• Im still suspect.

In other words, if I were playing from your perspective my scum pool would be:

• Onwagon: Elephant (strongest), Oxy (second-best), me (still possible) -- CHOOSING BETWEEN THREE;
• Offwagon: Meji (strongest), Nauci, (Flicker omitted for pushing off wagon).

I really dont get why you pick Oxy out of this pool, rather than Meji. By your own logic that I am still pretty suspect, Meji at this point seems like the much stronger choice, and the only reason I dont see you pushing it is the team.

[teacher]

Can we hammer this, please?

If it is scum (and I think it is), nauci is back to lurking without answering Elephant's good question. I dont think we should hammer without getting info from this slot. I dont want a hammer before Nauci posts.

I'm also interested (but less so) in seeing how Meji reacts to knowing that the lynchpool is presumptatively them or Thor.

PEDIT: 614 was a Thor question to me that I havent answered. Thor, I honestly didnt and dont believe your questions were game advancing, so much as a distracting 1v1. I dont blame Oxy for not engaging, which is why I liked how he responded. Same reason Im not replying to your response on my case. I think youre likely scum, and dont see the need to debate. I laid out my views, others can take from both our positions what they want to take and make their own decisions. Replies not needed.

[teacher]

@thor if you're town, please give me your thoughts on a world where I am also town

echoed. If you’re town and with intent out there please lay out your best assessment. (Leave out oxy also town for me).

[teacher]

If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.

Am I mistaken, or does Thor AGREES with the associative case on him. Flipping town!thor clears Meji (as its not in the OXY or ME partner pool). Thus, tomorrow town starts with two lock- or likely- towns in the (NK, Meji, me) pool even if it is a mislynch. Even if Im misreading, this is again Thor trying not to get people to vote Meji......

I town Elephant far more than Oxy. . . . . . .

In post 632, teacher wrote:
Oxy tried to build a counterwagon on Meji, while Elephant didnt

This is an associative tell, and thus really weak until we get at least one scum flip.
I'll agree that if Meji or Elephant flips scum this becomes a potentially telling issue.
Why should it be an issue now? . . . . .

I massively disagree with the associative case making Elephant more scummy

@Thor, thanks for providing your game analysis as town@Thor. I have one question left, about the above quotes. Why do you town Elephant more than Oxy

when Oxy tried to stop the James Wagon

? This is not an associational or comparative claim from me, but direct to Oxy's conduct standing alone. I dont see that conduct from a scum on a mislynch wagon, even if it is to a different mislynch wagon (which I doubt).

[teacher]

Because reads can exist from more than small singular moments.

OK, then what about Elephant D2 AT THE TIME YOU SHIFTED TO OXY was far more townie than Oxy's attempt to change wagons? Because at end of D1 you said you were null on Elephant (and Oxy). Or did you lie in response to my question end of D1 when you claimed they were both null? This isnt adding up.

[teacher]

not worth the time walking you through how reads work.

Youre fulfilling the IC as tutor role well.....Seriously, this is my first game here. Its different than where I played before, so Im playing all Level One Derp. Id like to learn. Youre right that you probably arent convincing me to go elsewhere today, but you will help make me a better player for future games. Im asking you to explain why you read Oxy and Elephant so differerntly in D2 - D1 you were null on both, and then Oxy tried to change wagons. D2 they have different activity levels, but similar foci (Meji/you). What is the cause for the strong difference?

PEDIT: Until you went to voting Oxy, you had kept Oxy and Elephant together (both null D1, both town before my claim). Im trying to see why they are now so different - I dont see any major difference at all (they both have the same lynch pools), other than Oxy trying to stop a wagon.

[teacher]

Please still dont hammer before Nauci delurks AND I make one post. Im in meeting room for a couple hours.

[teacher]

But in Thor's mind it would have, since Meji's only partner could be Nauci AND we know Thor insists there was a scum on the wagon. OR Thor did..... until 685.

[teacher]

@Thor: Then why not vote him??? He is the alternate whom you have scummed before. Oxy is a vanity wagon that is not happening today.

[teacher]

@Thor - in your scum Oxy case, who is Oxy's partner?

[teacher]

SO why do you townread meji? (Not in any of your partner lists).

[teacher]

But why? You have said repeatedly they were scummy. Now I think you are saying they aren’t. Why? What have they done to town themselves. Or why are they not on any scum team? Seriously I feel like I’m missing something.

[teacher]

To be clear, I started and encouraged the Thor shift. I still feel good about the associational inference - that a town Thor implies a town Meji in a way that is not true in reverse.

But I very much acknowledge I could be wrong. I will just hope NK or I get a hit tonight if that is the case.

Hammer if you want Flicker, or wait for Nauci to contribute/replace.

[teacher]

Who are my other theory partners vs. Meji's exactly?

To provide just one example, Elephant. There are others.

[teacher]

If I had to randomly guess now I'd hazard a Nauci, Flicker, or you.

Adding this to my scumcase on Thor. Because I find this list of Oxy's possible partners pretty terrible for including Flicker. I dont see Oxy's hard scumming and voting of Flicker (162, 163, 169, 261, 404, 409, 448, 613) as distancing. And it started too early to bus.

I concede that I am a possible partner, except for knowing my role. And Nauci is also possible, but again a less unlikely given her prominence in Oxy's 353 and 448. This is why Oxy is the towniest in my PoE pool.

[teacher]

Why are you not ruling out people who vote me? You seem to be ruling out people who vote Meji, so...?

(A) He hasnt voted you, so your premise is wrong. (B) I am not ruling out people based on votes (for Meji or you), but I find it less likely.

[teacher]

FMPOV, Meji's only other possible possible in Nauci. Your other possibile partners are Nauci, Elephant, Flicker.

Im not tunnelled into you. I have said I find Meji scummier standing alone. I just think flipping you advances the game more for town.

[teacher]

If Meji has a possible partner of Flicker how does flipping me town help clear Meji?

Explain to me why Flicker would L-2 her partner, or hold off hammering you here if this was a partnership. Because Im not buying.

[teacher]

I want to give Nauci 24 hours after the prod to post something substantial or replace before hammering. That's less than an hour from now. Y'all could try to relax until then.

A replacement will not help us right now. In fact avoiding the replacement by hammering right now would probably be the better idea.
This would allow Nauci to get more time to catch up. If that doesn't happen next day they can be replaced and enough time will be left. But a replacement is always bad.

I disagree. Replacements read through games and see things we missed. Plus, Nauci's lurking has left a pretty big gap in the remainer of the game assuming Thor flips town. Id like to get substantive info from the spot which is why I called for a delayed hammer to begin with. But I also dont want people losing interest, which is why I indicated its up to Flicker. Flicker, FMPOV, do what you will when you want.

[teacher]

So you're thinking Flicker *isn't* Meji's partner anymore?
Or are you just ducking my question of if Meji/Flicker is a thing it defeats the entire silly idea of lynching me to clear Meji your stronger scumread?

Not ducking your question. If I ever thought Meji-Flicker were a thing, I would agree that I should lynch Meji. But I never did, and I still dont, think Meji-Flicker could be a team. (reasons include 136, 265, and 574 and the next paragraph)

Since Meji is the alternative lynch to you, I would expect a hammer. Especially since I have stated that town you clears her scum partner in my point of view. So I am pointing out that I find the team you have proposed is even more incredible now than it was before.

[teacher]

Thor want to beat Smith to disclosing. And want to suggest actions for tomorrow?

[teacher]

Tracking is going to be interesting if he flips town. For example, I cant decide if NK is likely to go to the deep or shallow end of the PoE pool. Looking at associatives makes (Nauci Elephant Flicker) the richest. I wonder if I should go there, or assume NK will. Conversely, going off scummiest, the richest is (Meji, Nauci, Flicker). Knowing both those facts though makes Oxy tempting. Enough for now....I dont think there is much to be gained from this exercise. Really hoping this is a scum flip!

Good luck everyone tonight.

[teacher]

he has no reason to lie. I hope we dont cross streams again, since you (as only conf town) will die tonight.

[teacher]

Get out of the tunnel and communicate with people functionally - especially in twilight.

Why do you think we werent?

[teacher]

arguendo,

Lawyer.

Im sitting back a bit. I want to see some posts from Meji, you, and Flicker with actual game reads.

Once that has happened, I will share the info I learned from the night.

[teacher]

Also, 468. General fluff start D1. Disappearing end D1 could be legit, but then I suspect would feel guilty enough not to....... -- Disappear D2 after parking on town wagon.

Countervailing case is the start of D2 posts seem towny.

Basically I dont have enough to read this slot (hence lurker). Id like to read the slot by reading your reads. Which brings me to DONT DO THIS:

before I share any thoughts I might have on other slots

You can deal with my lurk-scum read by DELURKING and starting to post your thoughts.

[teacher]

I have three requests for my thoughts now. To be honest, I think posting them now helps mafia, because they know who carried out the night kill.

If I say I saw it happen, mafia knows who I tracked. They can skew their game reads to bus their partner, distance, and gain some town + read cred.
If I say I didnt see it happen, scum now have that info and can still use it to skew their reads, either soft bussing to provide distance or towning to avoid raising suspicions on a sus spot.
If I dont say at all, scum probably has to give genuine reads, since they dont know which way I come out.

All of this said, I know Im not lock tracker. If four people (requiring two townies) say they want me to out immediately, I will. Any previous people asking me to out can feel free to reconsider after reading my logic.

[teacher]

I cant tell if 761 is a response to 760, but if it is -- youre right that scum would know who I COULD have a check on. But (and this is the real answer to Elephant's 759, which I notice you didnt give) - they dont know whether I DO have that check (tracked person is not informed, otherwise Thor could have confirmed me).

Thus, if I dont out, I think scum has to give their killing partner a genuine read rather than a bus one.

PEDIT: Tunnel me all you want. Im waiting until at least 2 towns have asked for my actions and results. I think it does change their actions to know whether I had the check or not. Explain to me why it doesnt.

[teacher]

That's four. I tried to track Flicker (I also tried to tell NK this by anagram in [post]729]/post] (Tracking . . . . For . . . .Looking . . . I .. . . Conversely . . . Knowing . . . Enough . . . .Really). But I was Jailkept -- I did not get a result at all (different response than what I got with Thor.

My guess from this info is that NK decided that if I were scum, I would be the one assigned the nightkill, so he could both prevent a kill and out a scum. Wrong, but makes sense and perhaps makes my spot at least semi-confirmed - though I know you cant trust me even on the no result.

[teacher]

As for my reads, I am better on Meji as they have stayed off two town wagons. I dislike Nauci's end of D2 play even more than end of D1. So, Brass, get to actually casing.
VOTE: Brass

[teacher]

By the way, since I die tonight no matter what (and town loses if it doesnt hit scum), do not get to L-1 before I can post my long analysis. In other words, Intent to L-1 rather than posting it with intent to hammer, since scum can quickhammer to avoid my dying thoughts.

[teacher]

Started at 770, posting then getting back to reading.

Bizarrely your response 770 to my Nauci case 468 makes me feel worse about you.

1. You say it is "factually incorrect" that Nauci "tries to build a scum case from their lurking." Look at the post I linked -- 65. Nauci read TGP/NK (jailkeeper) as scum from "straight lack of content bias" and because "HE did that in a game" where he was scum. That is a scum case from lurking - factually correct.

2. "Vanity wagon" is a phrase you must have heard as an SE. It is a one vote wagon that will not gain traction to a lynch. Moreover, suggesting I am scumming someone for voting me shows a stunning lack of appreciation for the game. I cannot have said more times that I get why I am suspect, and didnt blame people for voting me. I blame Nauci for staying there even in the late day when it is clear I could not be a consensus.

3. Again, you say it is "factually incorrect" that Nauci "provid[ed] intent to L-1 but doesnt". But 227 says "consider this intent to -1". But after four hours in which she could confirm the VC, she does not 236 and instead disappears. Again, factually accurate.

4. I did cite my own post, because it explained the misrep.

5. There is a reason this was fifth on my list, and described with the word "possible." I dont see it as a strong tell, but also dont think by this point (post 96) Nauci was falling behind at all.

6. I don't think point 6 is absurd. Hell, Nauci didnt. To quote DDS from early game, sick Nauci used the game as a "crutch." For sick Nauci not to do so is inconsistent from who she had portrayed herself to be. FWIW, I am even more leery of your slot for this sort of semi-outside game reason now. I find it hard to believe someone who was on serious painkillers and in heavy withdrawal would return to work totally slammed -- I would expect most workplaces to be somewhat accommodating of a sickness as severe as Nauci portrayed. I still dont put much weight on it, but dont think its absurd to read this way.

******

To respond to 771, I see two issues.
Compare this:

Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing.

With this:

I will not do a read list. It's not useful for me, and I don't feel it is ever useful for anyone else to read them. I will not budge on this ever again.

So we shouldnt expect analysis? Why is a readslist not useful to anyone else? I find them useful.
Compare this:

Sheeping is distinctly negative utility for town.

With this:

Trying to coordinate on lynches, though is a good thing.

And consider the background strategy. Forming a town block negates the inherent block mafia can have, and can provide tells if you move the block around during the day for wagon analysis. I will try to dig up a strategy article from back in the day when I used to play more, but at least then, building a block was a big strategic bonus.

[teacher]

PEDIT - Again, started only at 777.

@Brass -- you have two people telling you your reads would be helpful. Having seen 776, Im fine (and in fact prefer) them to have an analysis. But I am not ok with just having a two person analysis. All slots are potential scum. While I know you are posting your scummiest, I want to know both why they are, and

why the others arent

. Please analyze all positions is the ask.

@Oxy - I prefer lynch today. Yes, its MYLO, but not lynching makes next two days LYLO. Id rather base it off reads from today and have room to sit on one lesser accepted scum tomorrow. I dont think the night kill (who I view as definitely me given role) tells the board anything we dont already learn today. But we can revisit this later in the day.

@Flicker - my response to Oxy notwithstanding, I will pull the vote for now. I do think lynch today is the right move.

@Elephant -I tracked Flicker in part because of the hammer, but also because of my previous indication that she was then my next scummiest if Thor flipped town -- the list on top of 586. The town seemed suspicious of her, and I thought that worth digging into.

@Board - In my view scum includes Brass's slot in almost any team I am not sure whether Meji or Flicker/Oxy is the more likely partner. Going into today, in part due to Thor's shade, I tunneled Oxy overnight. I can very easily see a Nauci(Brass)-Oxy team. But I see fewer other possible teammates, and less of a case. I would be opposed to lynching Oxy today. Im also opposed to Elephant - tbh, nothing confirms him, but if he is scum, we have all lost.

[teacher]

Im offline for a bit, and possibly the night. Look forward to reading when I catch up.

VOTE: unvote

[teacher]

By the way, Im on mobile now, but my two side by side quotes from 771 were screwed up. Brass's response captured the idea, though, as long as they post an analysis of positions.

[teacher]

@Oxy - I’ll poke around for an article but would appreciate pointers too. It is counter to my own intuition. My thought is that I (as tracker) will die tonight regardless of actions today and my death provides almost no information we don’t have now (you would learn I’m town, but I don’t think my slot affects many others, especially as my only hard associatives are Meji and elephant).

Under your plan, we share reads, discuss merits but don’t lynch. This makes no sense - scum gets to both learn their relative position AND kill town. They won’t kill anyone except me given the risk of tracking. Brass points out the error here.

Under the plan of passing the day in silence, no information is advanced, and we go from mylo to lylo in essentially the same place as now.

Thus based only on subway thoughts I think we lynch. A 14 day phase is long enough for all players to post analyses and build a consensus. And it allows for sitting on our hands D4 when the possibility of a lesser suspected scum is higher. I’d rather go down swinging than silent. But again, as long as everyone keeps talking I’m fine pushing the lynch/nolynch call until much later.

Finally, while I town him too, elephant isn’t lock. Everybody should be analyzing associations across the board. The best thing we know for sure right now is that there must be two scum.

[teacher]

@Meji - Thor's death removed you from the lynch pool for today. Youre pretty much conf town. That was the upside that lynching you didnt offer.

@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.

My lynch pool for today is (Brass, Flicker, Oxy).

[teacher]

SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED.

Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points

It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.

omewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.

VOTE: teacher

I am now basically convinced of a Brass-Oxy team. I still think Brass makes the most sense to lynch. But I put my pool up there. I think we have at least the same 50% chance of hitting scum within it that we would have tomorrow.

[teacher]

So, given the need to coordinate town, I would ordinarily try to persuade Oxy and Elephant with honey. But I just cant do it. Because OMG this is quite possibly the stupidest thing this game (and thats saying a lot coming from me).

1. Think about NK's statement in twilight -- WHEN I DIE, follow teacher. He thought he was confirming town or IDing scum by JK me. And he is right. Any scum team in the world with me on it has me carry out the night action, since NK had seemingly committed to JK elsewhere. The fact that NK was killed confirms I am not scum.

2. Think about my claim of being jailkept. First of all, I disagree with elephant's red-check argument. I am pretty damn sure if I had redchecked Flicker or Brass it would have gone through given the board suspicions to that point. But regardless, why would scum!me -- who must be brilliant to have made the claim so far -- make the bizarre and suspicious claim of being JK, when I could just have easily given Flicker a nullcheck while building towncred by pointing the crumbs.

@Elephant: you like simple questions. So I will ask a simple one. Why not Oxy-Brass? (note Im not pushing you to vote Oxy. But I dont see why they cant be a team).

[teacher]

By the way, though, given the state of play I do think I survive the night regardless of lynch/nolynch today.

If I catch a scum, they still can 50/50 me and argue "why didnt teacher die" -- a good position when at least one town and likely 2 (meji/Oxy/Elephant) is already sussing me.

PEDIT: re:806:

don't ever ever ever see Nauci's swearing pushing DDS out of the game if they're the team.

interesting point re Nauci(Brass)-DDS(Oxy) that I had not considered. Thank you for that, and Im inclined to agree.

You were pressured into revealing your read before you had planned on

True that I didnt plan to reveal and was pressured. But...

• That still doesnt undercut why I think NK has confirmed me. The key question is: Wouldnt any scum team have me carry out the night action? I think the answer has to be yes, with NK basically promising ("and his reads") not to JK me.
• Also, pressure doesnt explain why scum!me claimed JK rather than null (or scum). I truly dont see an advantage for scum!me to claim JK in this situation -- it doesnt advance scum!me's wincon at all because it doesnt redcheck someone, and it casts suspicion on me more than a pretend nullcheck would.

Bottom line, if you can explain how a JailKept claim helps scum!me in any way, Id understand your FoS. But I simply do not see how it does. TBH, playing a hypothetical non-tracker me out in this situation, I dont think I could have dreamt up a JailKeep claim because it seemed so contrary to NK's twilight plan. I only realized NK's true motivations once I got the 'zero result' PM.

Finally, on these two:

Tell me more about Oxy scum

make a case on brass that doesn't include Nauci's pattern of being missing

I need to think on this more, in light of your point about Nauci-DDS. I had been heavily suss'ing an Oxy-Nauci(Brass) team, including through their play in D3. IF they cant be the team, that would effectively town Oxy, because I cant see Oxy-Flicker or Oxy-Meji either, so alll that is left for me is Oxy-Elephant, and I just cant there from here. I think Im left with: Scum are (Brass-Flicker), but I want to go back through the game before I commit to that, and dont have the time now.

[teacher]

Re Oxy's 807-809:

For those sussing me, answer this: WHO is my teammate?

• Can't be elephant, according to Oxy -- why would i make such a strong association so early?
  
• Shouldn't be Brass -- why would I be pushing them today?
  
• Shouldnt be Meji -- why would I have left the choice between Thor and Meji up to NK after acknowledging the case was weaker on a 1v1 basis?
  
• Can't be Oxy -- he's the one pushing me now.

That leaves Flicker. I scum him so am interested in the case on her associations (with me AND with others on the board).

The one thing I will say is that town has legitimate reason to sus or lynch me. Im the only spot on the board that is truly 50/50 given my claim. But I know lynching me loses the game for town. So I view those trying to get me the hardest as scums trying to lead a mislynch with an acceptable case.

[teacher]

The problem with teacher's theory is as follows:

Put yourself in NK's shoes. You know with almost 100% confidence that you will be killed in the night, unless you can jail the person performing the kill.

You know that if you die, town will read your final posts to surmise your actions.

Do you,
a) all but say that you won't be jailing teacher, and then jail him anyway - wifoming the shit out of town, and potentially blocking the tracker from getting a result?
b) not do that?

The problem with this argument is that it doesnt WIFOM town. It tells them what to do -- follow me -- if he dies. It says his action (JK me) confirms me as town if he dies. I didnt see this until I got my result, but how does this not make sense.

NK has the same 50/50 chance on me that you all do. He took it, and lost (died). Do you all want to take the same chance and lose too? How does scumteam with me not have me take the night action?

[teacher]

I dont have any case on anyone after you blew my (Brass-Oxy) out of the water. I am simply responding (perhaps too fast) to your case. Bottom line question: Why do I claim JK rather than null (or check) if I am not tracker?

[teacher]

No, a null accomplishes the same exact information without casting doubt on me.

[teacher]

OK, but the question is why does why do I (in general) claim JK, it is why does scum!me claim JK. As you all show, its a claim that invites suspicion of my slot more so than a null-check. If I were not tracker, there is no way I dream up the claim given NK's final words. The only way I claim it is with my night track "zero results," and then after the fact see how it makes sense with NK's final words.

[teacher]

You seem unwilling to admit that, if JK15 did indeed jail you, it does not align with his words.

I agree I dont admit that, because I do think it aligns.

But if its true...
again, my plan.... when I die pressure the low posters Nauci, Flicker, Meji. Pressure Oxy for Thor's case.
Follow teacher's leads.

I think his words say two things, on two levels.

The first level, where I was before my results, say that he trusts me, and so wont JK me. Which makes scum!me the one to carry out the night action on any team (except, arguably, with Elephant whom he omits from this list).

The second level, where i was after my results, assumes the first level AND NK's death. It says -- Follow teacher tomorrow because he is confirmed town. If he hadn't been town, I would have died.

Thus I think NK's actions align with his words. The use of "teacher's leads" rather than "teacher" was to further mask the two levels of the statement, and so further encourage Scum!me to carry out the night kill. In short, I think NK's words are perfectly consistent with his actions.

You dont, fair enough, we can certainly interpret things differently. But really, how likely is it that (A) scum!me is not assigned the night actions? In other words, explain this

in light of your interpretation of NK that he would NOT jailkeep me.

Also probably it's a coin flip who should make the kill when you've got a fake claim going

How is this a coinflip under your interpretation of NK?

[teacher]

Did you think it was going to make you suspicious tho? We'll never know.

I will answer. No. I didnt. At all. As I said in my post announcing it, I thought it semi-confirmed me.

BUT, scum!me would have played it out. I would have played out how to handle a false report with NK's death, and without it. And I would have played out the suspicion it would cause-- a worse result than a nullcheck. I think Scumme would have nullchecked my partner, or redchecked a heavily suspected town slot. I dont know, I havent given this a great deal of thought except this morning. But I am confident scum!me would have played out how to make a false report enough to realize a JK claim was the worst possible claim for scum!me. WIFOM away...

[teacher]

Im sitting out til Brass, Meji, and Flicker get in here. I think we both have said enough that the cases are out there for them to interpret and decide their position on my slot. Though, just for yuks, I will mock this one given the plain fact of a NK.

4) Maybe you got stuck on a desert island for the night phase and couldn't put in the kill

I need to reanalyze the game. At this point, since I know my own slot and agree with Elephant that Oxy-Brass is not possible, the teams are largely (Oxy-Elephant) or (Brass-Flicker). I have suspected alot of Oxy's play today, including the No-Lynch strategy, since it seemed like it could be used to build a mislynch around me after a night kill tomorrow, and his push on me seems so contrary to his D1 and D2 reads. But I dont have strong views on elephant. I really am open to either team, and need to read the entire game again. I hope the other slots -- FLICKER especially -- will post some analysis I can use. I am open to being convinced the same way Elephant's DDS point won me over.

[teacher]

@meji
@brass
@flicker

get in here and talk.

about teacher.

Cheerleading a mislynch again, are we?

[teacher]

repare for an incoming "renewed scum read" on me from teacher

Actually no. Since (Flicker Meji Brass) is low activity, Im dedicating my end of day to posting my Oxy-Elephant case. Im hoping one of them (as high activity posters) will make a (Brass-Flicker) case. That way I can go and analyze who I think the likely teams are.

I dont see a Oxy-Brass as possible, thanks to Elephant. I dont see Meji-(Oxy, Elephant, Flicker) as possible due to votes. And I dont see Meji-Brass as possible due to Meji's Nauci tunnel and your entry. So Meji is town. I know Im town. So Im left with two clear possible teams.

After I leave the office this afternoon, Im in a similar boat. I have kids solo tonight and tomorrow, so wont be back posting after 5pm eastern today until appr 8pm tomorrow.

[teacher]

The Oxy-Elephant Case.

The below is chronological, not written in order of strongest points. It is also written with full confirmation bias acknowledged. I am reading everything to see if it makes sense from a scum team, and it does. They could well be A team. I am explicitly not saying this is THE team.

In fact, after re-reading the ISOs, I remain feeling that Elephant is town through D2. I find also Oxy’s attempt to shift wagons D1 pretty darn towny. The only thing that is making me suspect these two is their push together on me D3, when I know that is a mislynch. But it is an understandable mislynch (their case, though wrong, is legit).

Bottom line, I am posting this because I went through the effort of writing it. My outcome is that I would like to ask Oxy/Elephant to both (a) ask any questions of me you want, and (b) assume Im town and case two others as a team. I would like to ask the non-oxy/elephant board (C) to see if there is something I missed.

I remain tragically uncertain myself without more info. But to Town!Oxy that should be a reason not to lynch, if he has a true mylo hesitancy.

Spoiler: Day and Night 1

DDS RVS his partner. 10. A decent distancing move.

Elephant’s early game ignores DDS entirely, other than to ask for participation and impliedly town him. 108+111+140

• As a total aside, because I know Mathemagical Me has no credibility here, I found Elephant’s 108 most interesting. He announces a pool of 3 suspects (JB, Thor, me),
  and notes the statistical odds that one is mafia
  . I know that pool to be all town, and the odds of a towny announcing an all-town three person pool is 36% (There are 56 3-person combinations of slots 1-8. 6 combinations have both scum. 20 have no scum. 30 have one scum). I indented this because it makes sense to me but will persuade nobody else (especially since Im not locktown).

• Likewise, DDS’s only real post in the game essentially ignores Elephant. 126 Such avoidance of each other from both slots is consistent with how I would expect Scum to play D1. Moreover, as others have noted (e.g., Nauci’s 145, James’s 131), 126 is mostly empty AtE.
  
• Which brings me to the first time Elephant actually interacts with DDS, towning him for the empty/AtE post, and casting some shade at Thor 141.
  This is the scummiest game-play thing I find from Elephant D1 or D2, and it too is pretty damn weak.
  
  
• DDS exits with shade at JB and Thor – now known towns.
  
• Oxy arrives and immediately joins the chorus on towning elephant, for the slightly absurd James v. Thor being SvS theory. 158 He also immediately protects me, who has announced a sheep of Elephant. 159. Makes sense if you’re new scum teamed with elephant.
  
• The towniest thing I see about Oxy is the repeated pushes against a James wagon. 161+258+ 286. I don’t, and cant, come up with a strong scum motivation for this, other than to gain town cred. But that is pretty weak, and a pretty towny point for Oxy.
  
  
• Elephant engages, and pushes back against, Oxy’s Flicker case. They interact pretty heavily here in the late 100s early 200s, discussing the Flicker case. Could be a manufactured way to distance themselves over a spot that has no votes and is relatively unlikely to catch a lynch. Could be a legitimate disagreement. I don’t know.
  
• Oxy shifts slightly from trying to prevent a James lynch in 158 to questioning James in 216 + 218 + 233. Maybe this comes from town trying to get a townread say where to go next. But given the board state (my stated willingness to compromise on James), this reads more to me as an effort to keep attention on a slot without having to join the wagon with a partner.
  
• I don’t have much to say about day end. Oxy previews his switch to James in 302 for reasons that struck me as legitimate at the time. So does Elephant’s refusal to move 292. But I will say that I agree with Thor that there are more likely to be two scum on the wagon than two scum off, which is the choice Im presented with now.
  
• Elephant as scum makes the Thor N1 kill attempt a lock. Thor was one of only two slots not already towning elephant. And an Elephant led voting block poses no threat to scum!elephant. Indeed, if you assume scum!elephant, the only NK attempt that makes sense is Thor because you’ve already had Oxy strongly shade Meji, the other null slot.

Spoiler: D & N2

• The day starts with my derp claim theories. BUT Oxy quickly urges the board to confirm the PR claim, and pressures people who want to think it through. 394+403+404. Seemed scummy to me at the time, and does now.
  
• Elephant takes the opportunity to reinforce his Oxy townread. 412+ 416, while towning himself in my eyes by not obeying that read.
  
• Oxy says elephant is back on the table, something he contradicts in day 3. 412+ 774.
  
• Oxy shades the theory that there are two scum on the wagon. 447
  
• Elephant and Oxy start actively coordinating, though do not mention that they have the same reads – they both offer the same Meji/Nauci/Flicker pool. 448+ 459.
  
• Oxy explicitly towns me 462, and defends me from Thor.467 Since Oxy has actively towned me, and followed me outside his pool to Thor, his strong push on me today seems contradictory (especially when he justifies it as being based on a gamesolve from Meji, where he would have been yesterday but for me and who I assume is my partner???.
  
• Similar to my end of D1 analysis, I don’t have post-specific reactions from Friday (523) onward. I just have atmospherics: Oxy undercuts BOTH my math case on Thor (e.g., 520) AND my associational case on Thor (610), but follows it anyways. I find it surprising for him to move outside of his lynchpool for a case where he thinks both parts are weaker than the ISO case on Meji, unless he wants IC dead. Post 613 is perhaps the most troubling to me. He has now shifted to reading Thor as the scummiest, but never explains why (other than the altered math case, which is a weak 20%).
  
• Elephant’s limited play in this weekend time-period -- staying off Thor and questioning why Thor trusts me – seems towny (avoids mislynch), but also well-designed to protect his potential partner from Thor’s shade. Indeed, 622 strikes me as weird throwing of shade at all slots except Oxy and me – again very inconsistent with the hard push on me today. (see 2 bullets up.
  
• The fact of a night kill (when everyone expected NK and ME to be in the scumpool) suggests elephant felt free to roam the plains.[/lis]

Like I said at the start, theres really not much in there. Maybe a couple questionable actions, and some coordination, but nothing obvious until .....

Day 3

Today’s shared push on me. Could be scum trying for a mislynch win, but like I said the case is legit. Also raising suspicions for me is Oxy's argument for a no lynch. That is contrary to the Wiki suggestion in a mass-claim situation, which we have here.

You should search around these forums, or maybe the wiki. Somewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.

From the Wiki on MyLo regarding Lynching:

On the upside, by refusing to lynch the Town may be able to give its investigative roles another chance to work their magic. On the downside,

if the Town has already massclaimed

or if there are no roles that can make use of the Night remaining, opting not to lynch will simply give the scum a free kill on the Townie who is most likely to help the Town lynch correctly at LyLo.

I see the no-lynch suggestion here as scummy, because we have already massclaimed. Sure, I could use tonight to track. But even if I get a hit, its less than 50/50 (given that 3 slots have actively suss'ed me now) that a red check results in a scum lynch rather than my own.

Bottom line -- help please?!

[teacher]

@Oxy/Elephant: By the way, if you wont assume town me and build a scum team from the pool, then at least pair me. I'm biased but I dont see it.

Teacher + Oxy--> Day 3 push --> No.
Teacher + Elephant-->Day 1 sheeping from me and Day 3 push from elephant -->NO.
Teacher + Brass--> I push Brass and Brass pushes me in MYLO --> No.
Teacher + Flicker--> Possible from my end, I defended the slot, and scum!me would "track" her. But difficult to explain Flicker's D1 push on me, and D3 pressure to out actions. --> unlikely, but possible.
Teacher + Meji-->Again, possible from my end and would explain some of my D2. But Meji D3 solves the game by outing me? --> unlikely, but possible.

At best you have an unlikely but possible team. I think, even from your perspective, the Brass-Flicker team would be more plausible. But Im heading offline for the next 27, and very interested to see people's thoughts when I return.

[teacher]

OK, I do concede Flicker and I COULD be a team, but the problem I see with that is Flicker's D1 -- voting me and trying to get others to join her in the 100s, and then getting angry with me for delaying and ultimately getting off a wagon just as I was getting on in the 250s-300s. Heading out the door as well.

[teacher]

Not very likely. Both slots VOTED AND PUSHED me D1 at a time when I was a common board suspect and could well have gained traction. (Nauci 44 through 116; Flicker 81 through 193). I dont see either of those two plays as coming from a partner. Nor do I see either of their play today as being partnered with me. Flicker 765 pressure on me to out when I have stated it is not my wish. Brass same pressure to out (755) coupled with our general attitude towards each other as exemplified by 779 and 829.

Oxy, I dont like that you tried to keep me in two separate pairings, so as to keep either Flicker or Brass or or both open to voting me. That said, I genuinely cant tell whether you and elephant are scum pushing for the mislynch or whether you are town getting confirmation biased like you did yesterday with Thor. Since neither you nor elephant would rise to the task, I am going to research the other team my gut says is actually possible in the current playstate, Brass-Flicker. I will post my findings similar to how I did the case with elephant and you.

[teacher]

The Flicker—Nauci/Brass Case

Again, this write up is chronological, based on a paired (actually trio) ISO, not written in order of strongest points. Again, it is also written with confirmation bias – I am reading their posts trying to look for evidence of a team. And again, I see this as A plausible team.

Again, Im not saying this is THE team. Im just saying that the evidence doesn’t disprove its possibility. I think the evidence – particularly the D3 points not spoiled – make it less likely than Oxy-Elephant.

Spoiler: D1+N1

Im trying to code the lists correctly this time…..

• Nauci opens by pointing out scum daychat. 7. Like Thor (35), I had been inclined to view this as a very very slight towntell but don’t assign much weight at all.
  
• That opening is followed by a hell of a lot of fluff, as Meji pointed out at the start of his tunnel. Im not going to link each piece of fluffery, but for it it takes away any town points from the first bullet.
  
• Nauci votes me for the ‘random’ L-2. 44. This is her first substantive post.
  
• The very next post is Flicker’s first of the game, where she debates sheeping Nauci (finding me suspect), but instead votes James. 45. Could be taken as indication of coordination, especially with Nauci towning Flicker in response 47. But it could also be mutually shared suspicion (which would be legitimate). Overall I take this as a potential, but weak sign of team especially given the hours between each post though close in number.
  
• Flicker’s 57 responds to James and justifies her vote, while further sussing me. Nauci’s 67 towns Flicker and nulls James. Could be seen as trying to create a positive rep for a partner, while supporting either of their scum reads. That interpretation is assisted by 81, where Flicker switches to me before Nauci towns James. Then again, I find it unlikely that scum are the first two votes on a wagon. Another potential, but weak sign of a team.
  
• Flicker’s 81 also null-towns Nauci. Could be trying to create positive vibes without directly associating. Could be legit (this is about where I was at this point). Same – potential, weak sign of team..
  
• Nauci’s 96 is the first direct association from her to Flicker, defending Flicker from James. Flicker responds by now full-towning Nauci. 120. One bizarre aside regarding 120—at this point Flicker towns Oxy’s slot and Elephant too. That’s not relevant to the team analysis, but interesting given the gamestate. Regardless, at this point, theres certainly positive vibes floating between Flicker and the Nauci slot at this point. This is the strongest team indicative point of D1.
  
• Flicker’s 132 towning of DDS for his 126 is directly contrary to Nauci’s reaction in 145 of AtE. A distinct lack of coordination here, plus Flicker’s post includes what seems like a genuine question (about pocketing) that she could have asked in scumchat if Nauci were her partner. Cuts against team.
  
• Flicker moves away from her read on me in 193, at a time when Nauci still seems to be going full-bore 197. This is weak, because Flicker leaves her vote parked, but still somewhat counter-associational.
  
• Nauci’s last post of D1 moves from fulltowning Flicker to nulltowning her. 236. Nauci is also continuing to push me, adding Meji, while continuing to fence-sit on James, which Flicker has now been pushing more (219). Again, suggests lack of coordination at least on wagon pushing.
  
• Flicker’s end of day is well-known – a hesitancy on James but she gets on the wagon, only to deboard after Jame’s defense. But I again doubt the question in 278 comes from someone with scumchat. I also think 333reads true, and especially townie since she didn’t vote the other wagon (which she had previously said she was ok with) that is on a slot now heavily towned. Scum would have either stayed on the wagon or gone to another wagon rather than simply delayed in the late afternoon hours.
  
• Last comment about the Known night kill target of Thor – Unlike the (Oxy Elephant) team, a block led by Elephant poses a risk to this team, especially when Flicker has suggested she might follow. 269. I see elephant and Thor as 50/50 lynch targets for them, and possibly more elephant since Thor has suggested his focus would be on Meji.

Spoiler: D2+N2

Coding for a list, please!

• As I’ve said before, Nauci’s posts out of the gate urging against a protective role claim seem pretty darn towny. 380 + 382. I also view Flicker’s 385 as showing lack of coordination AND lack of interest in PR hunting.
  
• Once the claims fiasco is done, its basically back to being only Flicker. Her 469 throws some shade at Nauci, but as a tertiary target to Meji or Me. This could be acceptable distancing/soft-bussing to build town cred, but is also legit given board play. Slight team indication.
  
• In 471, 480, and 489, Flicker is defending Nauci from my case. (side note – do I really case a partner this early???). Indeed, 489 even misinterprets a response to Thor as an attack on Nauci. Seems pretty gung-ho for defending a tertiary target. Strongest team indication from Day 2.
  
• The scummiest thing from Nauci all game is the unexplained vote on Thor. 576. This came pretty soon after Flicker had said she would compromise there. 574. Could it be active coordination at last?
  
• Flicker’s sequence of 715 “replace before hammering” and 723hammering before replacement is also fairly scummy.
  
• Final night kill analysis: Flicker and Nauci both had reason to fear being Jailkept or tracked. NK15 as a kill is the only one that makes sense. My only question is whether they pass and try to rely on Thor’s FoS on Oxy to bluff their way through day 3. I view that as unlikely, but possible. Thus, I find the night kill not truly indicative of the strength of this team.

At bottom, after two days, I see light indications of a team, but not as strong as with Oxy and Elephant (I think a scum team would try to ignore each other entirely, rather than give shifting townish reads). I see some coordination, but not much, and sometimes pushing against each other’s reads (Flicker’s push off of me being the prime example). That brings us to

Day Three

• Flicker’s opening 765 (following elephant) is consistent with her town reads. But inconsistent with how scum should be playing at mylo – to spread suspicion around for a mislynch win.
  
• Brass’s first substantive post 770 is a response to my Nauci case. I think he is wrong at some points, but responding to this (and Elephant) makes sense.
  
• We finally get into the action with Flicker’s 772, fingering Meji, Brass, and Oxy. This is pretty counter-team, since it points to her teammate and leaves me (a large suspect) out of the running. I can see bussing, but I cant see bussing while leaving out common suspects.
  
• Same reasoning applies to Brass’s 789, where he fingers Elephant, Flicker, and Meji. I can see bussing, but I cant see bussing leaving out common suspect (me). This is less strong because the reasoning for leaving me out is weak, as later pointed out by Oxy.

[teacher]

teacher, you and I have dramatically different perceptions of what plays a scum is willing to make.

It's not that I'm not seeing what you are saying, it's just that I disagree.

As to the two pairings, and as I said before, I could see you with either of them, and my guess is that you are partnered with flicker.

And Im not saying I disagree with you either -- it is possible. But I dont think its remotely likely enough to justify the strength of your push on me right now.

I ask again for you to seriously case a team with me on it. I think Brass really has to be out, since I was the first one pushing that slot with 468, not to mention the issues above.

I do concede Flicker is possible, and the most likely team for me. But take into account Flicker's really hard push on me early day one (45, 57, 81, 120, 132) combined with the obvious lack of any coordination between us at the end of D1 on the wagon votes (she gets angry at me for delaying while getting on, I get on and then she gets off), and I think D1 tanks your theory even before taking into account the D3 push to out contrary to my stated wishes.

Again, I agree its possible. I just find it even less likely than Flicker-Brass OR Oxy-Elephant.

What I think happened is that you and Elephant pushed me because you had open suspicions from one town (Meji), implied suspicions from another (Flicker), and a spot I antagonized on the opening of D3 (Brass), and thought you could push a mislynch through based on the "NK couldnt have jailkept you" case. You didnt think through the team weakness in the case on me - an openly suspected slot. (Plus, the case itself is a bit weak, given how NK's jailkeep could be perfectly consistent with his words - 822

As for where I am, as you can tell, I have shifted more to believing its you and elephant based on the openly coordinated play today, and the lack of any counters to coordination before (though strong associations were not necessary -- the slots ignoring each other is suspect for me). But I dont want to be confirmation biased. I am putting all my cards on the table and letting people question them.

Do the same. Teamcase me and flicker. Or explain to me why you and elephant cant be one. Give me something other than a case on me (since I know Im town, and tracker).

[teacher]

I agree with your day by day reads of me to a T. I do look forward to our post-game convo, because I agree on all your points in that paragraph.

I dont get why you cant read NK's words along the lines of 822. I think you tried to explain this in 823, but I genuinely dont understand that post. Could you elaborate on 1 (WIFOM)?.
2. This is (I think) contrary to your sense of me. Believe me, given how much I crumbed all game, I searched his words for crumbs. The best I could come up with was that he would be JK Nauci based on putting Nauci first in his post, and saying follow teacher's leads after my reads post had (flicker, nauci) in that order).
3. While I do think there are two levels now, with confirmation bias, I dont see how I could have come up with that pre-night action.
4. We've agreed this is just wrong.
5. Do people actually do this? Again, I dont see how we run the risk where for all appearances NK has said he was staying off of me (this is my weakest argument).
6. What else???? If you cant come up with it, then maybe question the proposition?

Finally, regarding sleeping, Im open to it too. Its definitely better than lynching me which ends the game. Hypothesizing night actions, I dont see a world in which I am killed anymore since Im a good mislynch candidate. I am not sure whether there is a NK at all, since scum knows Im a tracker. If I am killed (contrary to my intuition) thats better for town as it gets rid of one mislynch. If someone else is killed, I could get a red check (50/50, better for town than now), More likely I dont, and likely the kill doesnt add much info -- I dont see the actual scum team lynching a member of the rival team. That is a slightly worse situation for town, as it becomes harder for me to convince board of innocence. I havent played this one out, and wont until other slots respond. But I am open to it.

[teacher]

OK. I agree with that (PEDIT-845). But then how in the hell does Scum!me (who had to have a plan for how he would play his actions) claim JK?

Scum!me is smart, right? Smart enough to plan the failed gamesolve to out the protective PR? Smart enough to fakeclaim tracker because I know we are in C2?****** If that is the case, how in the hell do I not plan my false report out smart enough to realize that the JK claim is the worst for me? Not to realize a nullcheck on partner (notably, a true result even if not obtained) would be better, and would build towncred for tracking the spot I crumbed a?

As for the asterisks, how in the hell would supersmart scum!me who knows we are in column C when I am doing the gamesolve appear to forget that JK can save (NK's first issue with 369), that there can be a doctor and tracker (which Flicker and others pointed out at the time) and that JK can be by themselves (an issue NOBODY PREVIOUSLY RAISED with 386 due to NK's fast claim). I didnt see the last issue until nowBECAUSE I KNEW I WAS TRACKER - that there had to be another PR. Further, Scum!me does not know whether Thor (who had not said one way or the other at this time) was doctor in C3. To be sure, I was throwing shade his way. But that could be fatal if he responded with a Doctor claim. My claim was not the right play to make as smart!scum at that time, until C2 was confirmed. (as for why I made it, which you have asked, Thor 564 got this one right - I was being sleepdeprived derp town).

Basically, I think you are giving me a lot of credit for being smart (thanks), but then not applying it to my claimed result of today or the timing of my claim D2.

[teacher]

If that was his plan, then he puts you in this terrible position where you look scummy as hell because of his final posts.

But once the result is known, his final posts can be understood just the way I suggest. Moreover, if the fundamental point of a PR is to save conf!town, perhaps he thought of his action as a way to definitively save me, and conf me as town. I dunno. I know Im not going to persuade you, but it hurts me because I think its so logical.

[teacher]

Sounds good. Im going to sign off for the night since Im busy with kids tomorrow.

The Thor case -- I actually stand by this. It essentially cleared Meji for me. I take it from your lynch pool it did for you as well. Thus, the Thor lynch was better than the Meji lynch. And that was what I saw as being possible at that point.

The accidental claim--you didnt reach my timing point. Between (a) the day one crumbing, (b) the claim when scum!me couldnt know C2 or C3, I think the claim is credible. Also, as a serious question, how does scum!me even come up with the possiblity of being jailkept? It makes a hell of a lot of sense once I have results, but isnt a chance before results, right?

Since we are now on a different page, I want to link two posts of mine for the absent board. I made a brass-flicker case in 841 and argued against me being on any team in 842. The subsequent conversation with Oxy didnt really challenge either of those two points, and I welcome the board to engage with either of those analyses. Hope everyone has a good weekend, and I will see you tomorrow night!

[teacher]

haha. Also, to prempt part of your answer, C3 is Dr-Tracker not Dr-Jailkeeper. I screwed up the setup again. The timing of the claim if I know we are in C is not that informative, and not a plus for me.

That said, I dont see how Scum!me (regardless of intelligence) concocts a JK claim based on NK's closing words. I think I greencheck my supposed partner, Flicker. The only way I thought of Jailkeeping at all was actually having been Jailkept.

Good night. Board please read 841 and 842.

[teacher]

On mobile during Sesame Street . I do appreciate the wall. Thor had accused me of the PR hunt at the start of D2 before the claim. As for the best Scum!action being checking you, the best I can say is that I am town which is why I crumbed and followed (or tried to follow) Flicker. The setup stuff is NAI - I did look at tracker setups, but Dr was possible and I had not played with JK before and presumed their N1 job was to hunt, rather than N2 save.

As for D1 crumbing, I did not crumb actions, but I did crumb role as I have previously claimed. In fact, I changed my track partway through from Nauci to Thor becuase I decided I couldnt tell WTF Thor was and you and I both thought he was at least mildy sus. But I did crumb having a PR, most obviously in response to Nauci somewhere in the 120s 130s - that newb!PR has the same nerves. Another crumb was somewhere in the 80s, that lynching me hurts town - you will note that I suggested a similar comment from James was a crumb back when he was at L-2 and I was hesitant.

If your bottom line case is based on NK, I hope you take a step back and think about it. I think you've acknowledged that 822 is at least a possible interpretation. And I dont think scum!me both conceives and claims JK as compared with nullchecking flicker, and getting credit for the crumb. I truly assure you I a mislynch though, so perhaps return to pushing sleep?

Also, board please read 841 and 842 and push me on it. Because it is challenging the individual who had been my strongest townread by playstyle, although Brass opened the door to that too with his reads, while also pointing out some more suspect things about Flicker.

[teacher]

It seriously does not seem outrageous to me that - in a game with a confirmed jail keeper - scum would be able to conceive of being jailed.

I know we are both banging our heads against walls, but you are ignoring NK's words.

I think you earlier agreed that scum me would likely be given the night action because of NK's words.
Given NK's death, I would know they went through.
So why would scum me - given the night action because of NK's words - then claim JK contrary to those words for all appearances ?

BTW, I dont think NK put the board in the 'terrible' position you claimed earlier. He said to trust me at the end - essentially that, in his view, his death while I was in jail conf!towned me

Now SS is done, and so am I. Bd pls read 841 and 842 and push me on it. Have a good day!