Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over


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Post Post #49 (isolation #0) » Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:15 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you! Sadly I have super limited availability on weekends. I also see RVS is over, so I’ll try to come back with some reads and get hunting maybe even before the weekend is over.
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Post Post #64 (isolation #1) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:26 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Huh, I thought there would be more here to talk about after a full weekend. Well, some questions:
In post 15, Thor665 wrote:
Vote: Nauci


Because I don't feel like allowing him to let personal feelings dictate votes instead of evidence.
Or maybe he's scum.
Win either way.
Was this vote serious? If so, what is "personal feelings" in reference to?
In post 39, teacher wrote:Greetings all. I am travelling through Sunday so have less time to quote and comment than I would like. Certainly looks like at least some will be active chatters, which is helpful for outing information - something that always helps town. I also like the RVS.

VOTE: nauci

Its an RVS for me, and one I am doubting, because of the silence so far. But there it is anyways. Happy weekend everyone.
In post 54, teacher wrote:UNVOTE: nauci

Still travelling though tomorrow night USA time so will be brief. My vote was knowing it would be L-2. I figured it would either prompt some mafia to bandwagon or to speak up in defence if he was maf. Neither really happened though James did speak. As for silence, that’s what I meant - not Nauci but others not defending him or creating another wagon.

Look forward to reading tomorrow.
Agree with others who have said this vote was weird. Looking forward to hearing more about it and the subsequent "oh no people think this is weird *unvote*" post when you get back tonight. If it was a weird play for information, why let us in on it so fast? Seems like that ruins the point of it.
In post 48, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
In post 26, Nauci wrote:I'm sorry TGP I remember playing with you before but absolutely nothing about your posting style don't hate me
:D this? I did that for the memes
It was a dark and stormy night where you LYNCHED MY F*CKING SCUMPARTNER D1 AND THEN JODAXQ GOT A GUILTY ON ME D2.
pirates vs. ninjas was a very interesting game
TheGoldenParadox, you've posted twice, and on different days, but haven't really talked about the game yet. What do you think of Teacher's weird vote? Or JB and Thor's many words? Or anyone else?
In post 53, Meji Fan wrote:James - Nauci has made lots of posts, by the time I posted in post 36 that you replied to Nauci had quite a lot of posts which made N auci very visible, but did not have much to do with the price of tea in China
What does this mean?


I'll say that JB and Teacher have both made me feel bad so far, at different times. I also get really nervous about the idea of a scum Thor because he's played so much.

Oh and lets get everyone talking if possible. Flicker, JB, DDS, and Nauci - ummm what do you all think of each other? Any good or bad vibes yet?
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Post Post #69 (isolation #2) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:37 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

So I have a theory that I want some other eyes on: What if Thor and JB are scum together? Itw ould explain some early weirdness.

In psot 15, Thor votes Nauci. I have already asked if this was serious, and his answer might change how the rest of this theory goes, but not by much.

Then, without a very strong reason (imo), James copies his vote spot:
In post 20, James Brafin wrote:That being said, VOTE: Nauci
Semi-serious. I'm not sure why town cares about there being a scumchat, but if the mod forgot to set it up, it would not surprise me if scum had a comment.
Then, in my theory world, Thor tells him offscreen "hey, copying me is a bad idea so early on, we're gonna look like a team", so JB unvotes,
In post 22, James Brafin wrote:Oh, kk. Still suspect, but it's a valid albi.
Unvote


That being said, Thor, I think the answer to your question in #16 is "Who is scum." Also not a fan of post 15, I'll explain in a bit.
...aaaand goes to the other extreme:
In post 37, James Brafin wrote:
Vote: Thor665

Fairly confident in this.
It would also explain why the two of them have been arguing over what feels like a lot of nothing - or at least, it's mostly goign over my head, these arguments about how the game works and how an IC works.

In 31, JB accuses Thor of "shading" him for what was pretty clearly a joke. And in 35, Thor asks "Also, how would me "shading" this game theory help me win as scum/hurt town exactly?" which from what I can tell (if I'm reading these posts right - yikes), JB doesn't respond to?

tl;dr It just kinda feels like they're disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing, not because either one thinks the other could be scum.

Obviously, odds are I'm wrong. But man, wouldn't it be fun if I called it day 1 my first game? Any thoughts?
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Post Post #75 (isolation #3) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 6:11 am

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@Thor, all I'm finding is #35's "You don't understand the context of my response, that Nauci didn't react suggests she does."
Oh, and #59's "To answer your question - do a search for Nauci and I in a game, my comments are very valid in that context. I'm not allowed to say any more."

I guess I just don't understand. Are you referencing Nauci's use of personal feelings in other games as a serious reason to vote her now? Or because of something you quoted in ?

Pre-edit: this is in response to 71. More responses to come later, I have to be AFK for a bit
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Post Post #80 (isolation #4) » Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:07 am

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In response to 77, yes, your words make more sense to me now, thank you. The only thing that doesn't make sense to me is a "serious" vote on someone for out-of-game reasons. Or maybe I'm still misunderstanding you? I'm hearing you say that you ARE voting Nauci for reasons you can't discuss because they can't be found in this game, and that your vote is serious. Am I missing a puzzle piece, or is this just a bad vote? I would think that votes should only be placed for in-game reasons, aside from the RVS.

In response to 73, I do appreciate the summary. Besides the literal difficulty of reading things, though, I was mostly just having trouble parsing how much you were arguing about pedantics vs. the way the game works vs. actual alignment-related things. Especially since I have no clue what a game is like w/ vs. w/o scum daytalk. I was never really reading scum motivation into your stances, though - it was more that this argument seemed fruitless, apart from maybe distancing the two of you if you were both scum. idk, I thought I'd throw it out there as a thing I saw .Based on your summary (and a re-read)), I suppose it's mostly JB I have a problem with. His arguments are hard to read because, as you point out, they're contradictory.

At the end there, I think you misunderstand me. I'm not saying JB was joking. I'm saying he accuses you of shading him when all you actually said was "Cool, I look forward to the detailed and full analysis requiring the pause to collect your thoughts ;)" which I thought was a joke.

At JB: that wasn't my first post? Also, I was just pointing out something that could be useful in reading you both, but which would only make sense if it was both of you. I'm definitely not certain, like I said, it's a theory, and one I'm already leaning against. Six of you are town, and two are mafia, so odds are pretty low that I could find both in one guess. I
am
still parsing what your argument with Thor means, as it gave me bad feelings.

I feel like some players are quicker to vote than others. I'm used to playing mafia IRL, where voting happens all at once, rather than as the game goes. IC, is there a normal for voting here? Like, should I always be voting the person I most thinkis mafia? Or only when I'm sure?
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Post Post #104 (isolation #5) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:15 am

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In post 84, teacher wrote:I lied again (not a great thing to do as town, I know). I will make one more post defending myself. It's short: You will note at least 5 players have questioned me (Irrelephant 64; James 50; Flickr 45, 57, 81; Nauci 44, 65; Meji 40). Nobody else has defended. I personally would find that comforting if it were a different player. But you make of it what you will.... Im going to be offline for a few hours. Please dont wagon me before I can respond to anything more if needed.
Soooo "I lied again" is really not a great start for a defense? Especially since Thor said in his first IC post that lying is strongly discouraged for town players. Feels like maybe you feel caught. I'm also not clear on what your other point is here. . Areyou saying that if you were mafia, someone would have come to your defense by now? Another explanation could be you're mafia, told your partner "don't defend me", and then tried to use that as your alibi.
FoS Teacher

In post 95, Meji Fan wrote:Elephant - I may be the kg ew Cedrick, but even I cant derive much meaning from the two posts he left. People replace out, it happens.
Sorry, I really don't know what you're saying here? The typo is making the sentence structure unclear.
In post 97, Nauci wrote:Updated reads

-Can't really read Irrelephant tbh. Too polite. I don't do well with that kinda nice. Freaks me out.

-Shit lookin' worse for Meji but that's from just 1 post so who the fuck knows
lol I guess I'll take the compliment?

What about Meji's post makes them look worse?
In post 102, DirtyDishSoap wrote: I'll be sure to update sometime today/tonight when I get the chance.
Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.
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Post Post #106 (isolation #6) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:32 am

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In post 76, Flicker wrote:Just a quick reply for now while I chew over everything new:

Irrelephant - I doubt that Thor/James is the scumteam. I agree that James' behavior leans scummy, but Thor's rigorous replies draw too much attention to that, whereas a scum!Thor would, I think (based on Newbie 1856 where he was scum with DirtyDishSoap), more subtly shade James while giving him less attention.
My inclination is to say James vs. Thor is either scum vs. town or town vs. town, because if Thor is scum I feel like it would make more sense to push James' mislynch rather than keeping his vote on Nauci.


On the other hand, I agree with Nauci that scum IC is scary. :/
(emphasis mine)

How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?
In post 88, Thor665 wrote:VOTE: James Brafin
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:And I'm going to unvote because really, there is no reason for my vote to be where it is right now.
UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.

I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,
In post 90, James Brafin wrote:So you ARE misrepping.
C) NO! Just because something "changes the game" doesn't mean we should care as town. Aesthetic "changes the game" but does town care? No. The same is true of multiball (only scum cares then), and I'd argue the same is true of daychat.
Now totally confident this is scum.
VOTE: Thor
This makes me feel even more weird about JB vs. Thor. Lik eI want Thor to be town because town IC is easier to swallow but this weird vote dance is making me really uncomfortable. I feel like at least 1 of these 2 is likely mafia. Also I kind of feel like JB is just "suspecting" whoever says they suspect him? Which maybe a townie player would do that too but it if it's coming from town, it's not really playing to win (statistically, at least).

Hm. It seems like ya'll place votes on scummy players for more information and responses, even if you're not 100% sure who's mafia?
VOTE: James Brafin

Also, JB,
Spoiler:
in reference to formatting your posts - maybe stop using quotes? You can use {post}85{/post} (but with brackets) to just link to the posts you want to talk about, without worrying about the possibility of your new text mixing with the thing you're quoting.
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Post Post #108 (isolation #7) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:36 am

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@Thor, I mean I think it's clear that I suspect the three of you the most so far? Randomly, any group of 4 I name will have one mafia in it. After playing for a bit, I do feel like I can name a group of three likely to have one mafia in it. I want to know if DDS sees things similarly.
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Post Post #111 (isolation #8) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:52 am

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What? No, not random chance. I've narrowed down who I think is suspicious. Obviously I'm not certain which is mafia, so I'm asking DDS (and anyone else who is reading this, especially TGP who should talk more) to give their input on if they think I'm right, if so which one is mafia, etc. etc.

Also I'm not trying to connect you to JB, necessarily. Ijust feel like your argument is weird, feels like it includes a scum, and could possibly include two (in a let's-fake-everyone-out-by-arguing strategy way).
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Post Post #112 (isolation #9) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:54 am

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In post 110, Thor665 wrote:I also agree that you kind of awkwardly connect me to JB for reasons I still don't grok.
Agree with who?
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Post Post #114 (isolation #10) » Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:51 am

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The former, though if one of you is town I am currently leaning towards you.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #11) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:53 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 115, Thor665 wrote:How am I scummy if JB isn't my partner?
I have seen no evidence of that thought coming from you, did I miss it?
I... well. Actually, good point. I've had some iffy feelings about you, but mostly that's from looking at your posts through theoetically-scum glasses. I think I've been internalizing the what-if-scum-IC paranoia too much. If James gets lynched and shows up mafia, I might be back to suspecting you (who knows, there's lots of time left), but I don't actually have much of a read on you alone yet/
In post 120, Flicker wrote:
Irrelephant:

In post 106, Irrelephant11 wrote: How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?
It doesn't, really - in fact, it seems like bad scum play for him to move his vote to James after I pointed how doing so could be scummy.
Also a good point for you, Thor. Flicker is coming across to me as fairly logical and like she's actually examining things for alignment - feeling ood about her.

Meji's case on Nauci in isn't making much sense to me, especially because, correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you
approve
of most of what Nauci has posted since page two? So what's to suspect?

Also, come to think of it, hey Nauci?
In post 104, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 97, Nauci wrote:-Shit lookin' worse for Meji but that's from just 1 post so who the fuck knows
What about Meji's post makes them look worse?
Trying not to sound too all over the place, but making a note for myself and others for later to watch for a potential relationship between Nauci and Meji Fan. Sometimes relationships give mafia away all at once, js
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Post Post #141 (isolation #12) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:57 am

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In post 104, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 102, DirtyDishSoap wrote: I'll be sure to update sometime today/tonight when I get the chance.
Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.
@DDS, I like your , for the most part. Could you share a Thor read, too?

Also,
In post 130, DirtyDishSoap wrote:Why not ask this question for Elephant as well if this strikes you odd?
I wondered this as well.
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Post Post #142 (isolation #13) » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:07 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 134, teacher wrote:My gut. If want reasoning, ask.
DDS -> slight town.
Irrelephant -> nullish town.
JB -> null.
Flicer -> slight town.
Nauci -> nullish scum.
Meji -> slight town
TGP -> slight scum
Thor -> null.
Not sure how you're null on JB
and
Thor? Like they had a big long conversation with a lot of potential alignment moments. If your reads are all "slight" anyawy, seems like you ought to have something on one of them by now?

Not loving how you're still in continual excuse-mode, either.

I'll hopefully be back once more today, if not see y'all tomorrow
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Post Post #171 (isolation #14) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:40 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wow do this many replacements normally happen in newbie games? Sorta discouraging. Hopefully after the first day the player list will soplidify...

Hi Oxy! Welcome. I'll engage with your read. Interesting that DDS's only town read, really, was Flicker, and now she's your only scum read. If anyone knows how aligment-indicative that is, please let me know. I can't decide what iti would mean.

Looking through her ISO, my good feelings on Flicker mostly hold up. Then again, she and I have had pretty similar reads (and she's said nice things for/about me), which could mean I'm getting manipulated by scum.

Also, are walls just long posts? What constitutes a wall? If it is long posts, since we don't have many pages of posts, why not just read the long posts as if they're multiple posts? You can just pretend everyone's double posting and we have 14 pages for you to read :wink:
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Post Post #173 (isolation #15) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:09 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Also wow we're closer to day end than day beginning and things feel... stalled.

Meji, Your ISO is
"Nauci is bad,
Teacher why are you voting Nauci,
James, Nauci is bad,
Nauci is bad, not sure about Elephant,
Nauc, you're bad,
Thor, Nauci is bad,
Nauci and Teacher are bad, JB is good,
Thor, I answered your question about Nauci."
Can you make a post about some reads without mentioning Nauci? What do you think about me, or Flicker, or Thor, or you know, anyone other than Nauci?

Then, after you've made that post, can you separately clarify for me: is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?

pedit: Will do later, gotta be afk.
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Post Post #183 (isolation #16) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:11 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Hm, so quoting things I like from Flicker might be hard, 'cause some of her posts are long and have complicated shapes. I'm just gonna link and point things out.

and show real hunting to me, trying to parse out various players' alignments and not misrepresenting anyone's words to push for a bad lynch.
is a good explanation, and helped me see Thor/JB more clearly. Not something I expect from scum who doesn't care mabout my theory if it doesn't affect them?

Mmmmm and then there's a lot of stuff that, without knowing other players' alignments, is hard to nail down. Still, her casual tone, her consistent working out of analyses (as opposed to useless words), etc. make me feel good. I think most of it actually has to do with just not seeing th e scumminess of the things you pointed to? More to come on that in a few.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #17) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:22 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@Oxy,
Spoiler:
In post 169, Oxy wrote:
In post 45, Flicker wrote:Hey, all!

VOTE: James Brafin, partly as a policy lynch because of his posting style, partly because I don't like anyone who has that much confidence on a read this early.

I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS.
In post 81, Flicker wrote:VOTE: teacher

Nobody seems eager to follow my James vote, so I'm finally confident enough to put my vote here.
In post 120, Flicker wrote:Great. Now more people vote for James? Rude.
In post 120, Flicker wrote:I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.
None of this makes sense from a town perspective. People are voting someone she is confident is scum, but she doesn't want to move her vote back there, but she considered moving her vote to someone completely different because sheeping.
In post 120, Flicker wrote:A) I also read (and still do) Nauci as town.
Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team.


in response to that:

A) Ignoring the "partly as a policy lynch", since it's obvious (to me atleast) that that wasn't really the main reason for her vote - it was JB's high confidence that he'd found scum so early, which I also thought was bad.

B)As someone with scum reads on both Teacher and JB, I totally understand doing her best to vote whichever one it seems like town is voting for. Like, enough townies do have to agree at some point, so this doesn't seem to say much for her either way

C) Said in 120 (the same post) that "Now more people vote for James?" was a joke.

D) I feel like I read somewhere on the wiki that copying your towniest read's vote (that's what sheeping is, yes?) is sometimes good strategy? Because if you can get a majority group who are definitely town voting together, the odds of hitting town are much lower than random. Idk, since she didn't actually sheep I don't see your problem with it. What would be the scum motivation for staying on Teacher, or for mentioning-but-then-not sheeping Nauci?

E) "Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team." huh? not seeing this. Or knowing what it means. In fact if anything it seems Flicker has been kind of weirdly consistently confident that Nauci is town all game. What are you saying here?
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Post Post #186 (isolation #18) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:23 am

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ebwop: A)... ...which I also thought was bad - what about this post makes you scum read Flicker?
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Post Post #188 (isolation #19) » Thu Apr 19, 2018 9:27 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Come to think of it, Flicker, why the strong Nauci townread from so early on?

You've "considered sheeping her" twice, and have said she seems towny at least twice with your only reason stated "sick scum wouldn't try so hard". Is that still your reason/is that your only reason?
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Post Post #204 (isolation #20) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:58 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 191, Oxy wrote:Thanks for this. I'm in agreement on your premises, but not on your conclusion so much. I think this is all probably in AvgNewbie's scum range.
What's missing between the premises and conclusion? Town-like actions --> Townish read, no? Put another way, what about my list points toward "AvgNewbie's scum" rather than town?

I just wrote a whole bunch. Moving it into a nother post
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Post Post #205 (isolation #21) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:02 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

To respond to Teacher, even though he never really asked me a question ("I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them" is passive aggressive af like hello I'm in the room):

I've already said I like Flicker, and liked DDS (unclear on Oxy, but aside from his read on Flicker there's nothing I dislike there yet). Both of them for providing helpful analysis on other players, actively looking for scum, etc.

Apparently we're all just gonna collectively have a null on Thor, so (my reason: saw him as scummy, then took a step back and saw there wasn't as much there. Experienced player is experienced) Nauci is nuller than scummy, too - her tone has been scum read by some, but being slightly abrasive hs not stopped her from providing reads, analysis, questions, etc. to a similar extent as Thor.

I feel bad about JB and you, for reasons already listed but I might re-analyze and re-summarize later.

I didn't like TGP and don't like Meji for their lack of content overall, but neither one is guaranteed scum for being quiet. waiting for more from both slots before deciding if there's actually anything scummy there. For lack of information, null.

If I had to push some players out of the null zone, I'd probably say Not Known 15 and Nauci feel more to me like town than Thor and Meji. I reserve the right to change my mind on this later though.

Even if I haven't used the word "read", I've definitely implied how I feel about more than four players, so saying that I've only really discussed four players annoys me. I'm also not clear on why saying "I don't have a read on _______" is better than not saying it in the first place. Some players haven't said much, so my read on them has mainly been "answer my question pelase."
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Post Post #207 (isolation #22) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:38 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@Thor, Nauci, Meji Fan: you three have some experience. Is there much to be learned from this flip on JB:

Spoiler:
In post 98, TheGoldenParadox wrote:i literally forgot this game existed sorry :D
Right now I'm reading Nauci as slight town lean. She looks to be playing a similar game to Pirates vs. Ninjas but slightly better, doesn't look like she's a different alignment.
I also read James Brafin as town because of his attention and tryhardiness towards the game which is producing a plethora of game content for others to respond to. I also suspect Thor for that I'M AN IC AND I DON'T LIE stuff, it kinda looks like he's scum that slipped and is now trying to get by with that.
VOTE: Thor
In post 175, Not Known 15 wrote:Here are my suspects so far:
Flicker.
Here I am sheeping the case of Oxy against them.
MejiFan.
I don't like their obsession of Nauci; they seem to focused on them. This frequently happens to scum, there is a difference between town tunneling and scum "tunneling" and this looks like the latter.
James Brafin.
James is flip-flopping their votes and they give me a bad feeling.
VOTE: James Brafin


or Oxy's totall flip on DDS's Flicker read?

pedit: Hm. Okay, well anyway I'm still not seeing scum there yet. What do you think of JB after NK15's recent response to you?
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Post Post #210 (isolation #23) » Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:48 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 208, teacher wrote:
In post 205, Irrelephant11 wrote:even though he never really asked me a question ("I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them" is passive aggressive af like hello I'm in the room):"
ummm...it was a question? It called you (and Thor, and Meji) out by name? Just missing what is aggravating. Sorry for it, but dont know what not to do next time.
"Irrelephant, please share your reads on ___, ___, ___" comes across better to me than "I hope those people I mentioned will provide reads". If it says anything about your alignment, it's that you've set yourself up to follow up or not follow up on us later, at your convenience - a scummy move that cares more about looking like you want information than the information iself.

But I'm willing to admit this one is probably just my personal communication preference.

I guess I remembered "I like your 126" as "I like your 126, feels towny" (which is practically the same anyway).

There's more I could talk about here, but I've got questions waiting for answers so I'm gonna peace out for a bit and hope some other players show up.
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Post Post #292 (isolation #24) » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:40 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Using my v short weekend availability to say I’m okay with where my vote. I’ll reevaluate in the morning when I can do ISOs but JB has done nothing to make me feel better about his bad votes, bad arguments, and looking mislynch-happy. See you in the morning if the day is still going at that point.
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Post Post #341 (isolation #25) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 2:50 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Catching up, while also working on something not MS related. Will post within an hour, probably.
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Post Post #346 (isolation #26) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:17 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wow okay so a lot happened and I'm not sure I have time to address a lot of things that I'm curious about before day ends, but here are some thoughts that come to me first:

-James Brafin says he's unafraid of L-1, but feels like he is flailing more and more as people suspect and/or vote him. I think he has scum-cased three different players with "complete confidence" and, each time it's clear someone won't get votes, moves on to another player. His arguments are often based on misunderstandings (intentional ones, imo) and he has not claimed a power role. This lynch makes sense to me, and I'm almost definitely keeping my vote here.

At the same time,

WTF Teacher?? I had made it so clear that you are my next highest scumread, and now you're trying to form a town block around me, as long as it's not on you? Is this a last-ditch effort to move a bunch of votes off your scum partner James? Is this an attempt to absolve yourself of responsibility when JB flips town? Is this so insane it can't come from scum? Idk what to do with this (even if I like the other two players you're adding to the block). You also keep referencing how most of the board town-reads me, which I'm not totally sure is true? Without doing a search for every player's most recent reads, I can name Thor and Meji as two players who null read me, at best. I dunno, this is just so ocnfusing coming from you.

Meji. Talk more, or get lynched. You "want Nauci lynched" but have made little effort to push that. You "want JB alive" but have made little effort to save him. ("I've been trying to encourage people toward who I want them to vote for") is straight up false. Paranoid that this quiet scum is letting us lynch one of our own, and getting towncred after he shoes up town. If I were to switch, this would be the one.

I feel a little better about Thor and NK15, and a little worse about Nauci. Other reads stay the same.
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Post Post #356 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:20 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Oh, weird, not used to twilight being a thing.

Scum JB makes me suspicious of everyone who expressed hesitance at one point or another: Flicker, Nauci, Meji, Teacher, not sure about the order

I'm suspicious of Meji either way, honestly. Agreed that town JB makes Meji
more
suspicious, though, for reasons already given.

Town JB also makes me think there's probably at least one scum voting for him, except in the specific case that scum is both Meji and Nauci.

Gonna need to really re-explore Teacher. So confused about him end of day.
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Post Post #390 (isolation #28) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 365, Meji Fan wrote:For those thinking Meji is scum because James was town, note I leaned James was town back in post 152 which was before James hot really popular
noted. Please provide reads and reasons on everyone you have a read on (should probably be everyone at this point).
Also,
In post 173, Irrelephant11 wrote:Then, after you've made that post, can you separately clarify for me: is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?
I am tentatively going to start today by assuming a town Teacher. I'll continue to evaluate, but I realized that part of my scum read on him was "he keeps doing things to look towny" which, who knows, could be because he's towny. Still lots I don't like from yesterday, but we'll come back to that.

I don't even know what to do about claiming or not claiming. Is IC bound to be honest about this? Or would it be too influenced by his alignment?

Also does mafia have the option skip a nightkill? The sample role PMs make it seem like they have to kill, which is also my experience with mafia IRL

Seems like scum hunting will end up being heavily influenced by whether or not we start claiming roles...

pedit: I've tried to post this like
three
five times and been interrupted by new posts, which I read, then try to post, etc...

pedit2: that escalated quickly.
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Post Post #412 (isolation #29) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:15 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 403, Oxy wrote:No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.

We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.

There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.
Your last sentence makes sense. But "clearing NK15" isn't totally possible, is it? Like, we could be in
C1
nope reread it, umm... C3? Yeah, could we be in C3 without a counterclaim and have NK15 still be scum?

Also, I want to follow my town read on Oxy, but can someone verify that this is a good idea? I feel out of my depth.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #30) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:19 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Yeah, Oxy seems town to me, so I want to take his very insistent advice, but I'm also nervous that he could be giving bad advice, intentionally or not
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Post Post #427 (isolation #31) » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

A few thoughts, while we're still trying to figure this out.
In post 418, Oxy wrote:correct, c3 is the one setup where it doesn't clear. scum would have to be very lucky to hit this exactly.
After stewing on this, it wouldn't actually be that much luck? Scum knows which column we're in, so if they have no power roles then, based on last night, they know it's c2 or c3. If neither was jailkept, then they can guess it's a more than 50% chance it's c3. Risky, but the odds are technically in their favor.
In post 421, teacher wrote:MY earlier general theory does not work because of C2 and A2 combined, as best I can tell. Or it gets too unwieldy for me to play out well.

So what to do about the fact that we have a claim that --
if true
-- would put us in Row 2 of the setup? Should we counter it or not? I think yes, in the way Oxy suggests. What does the board think of the below?

Oxy's Suggestion

Countering the extant claim at the first level reveals a (cop, neopolitan, jailkeeper). If there is a counter, there are 2 suspects. They reveal actions for info. Lynch among them for a lock scum ID by day 3 at worst (mislynch), PLUS the info from the true PR. At worst, after night 3, it is 3:1, with hopefully usable info.

But if no counterclaim from those powers, NK's claim could still be falsified if there is a tracker AND a doctor - C3 as oxy identifies in . But its not as unlikely as he claims. At this stage, it is exactly a 25% chance. So how to address this: presumably a mass "pr no pr claim" without identifying role, as this would (a) validate NK's claim in full if 0-1 pr claims; (b) create a 3 suspect pool if 2pr claims; (c) create a 4 suspect pool INCLUDING BOTH MAFIA if 3pr claims. Option c is guaranteed lock town, so cannot happen. Playing out options A-B further:
  • No PR claim (option A): NK is lock town, and kept mafia (no night kill assumption). He reveals action. Board kills target. D3 begins at 5:1. Good.
  • One PR claim: NK is now lock town. The other claimaint is probably real too (A2, B2), but could still be false because of C2. NK leads townblock that other claimant MUST follow for all days. Have alternative PR say reveal role and action.
    • IF claimed doctor and NK dies N2, claimant scum. Again D4 begins 3:1.
    • If claimant tracker, NK will die N2. Must assess reasonability of tracker's N1 and n2 actions.
  • Two PR claim: clear three suspect pool. Select board-cleared person (Elephant?) to receive PMs from two claimaints identifying roles. A contradiction narrows it to two suspects. If they claim consistent with C3, then there remain three suspects. Doctor reveals. Mafia must kill him, so lynch among remaining two. If mislynch, D3 lynch is guaranteed scum (doctor if doctor survives night; 3d claimant if doctor dies). Worst case-D4 starts 3:1 with info.
If this gets validated, I will respond in the manner Oxy desires.
I'm finding a couple problems. In A, NK15 could have kept town. Killing the target could be a mislynch, leading to NK15's night kill, and we're down to 0-1 PRs and no useful information from NK15. Also it'd be 3:2 if that's the case. In B, I don't think PMs are allowed.
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Post Post #459 (isolation #32) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:20 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Okay, based on the IC post, claiming/not claiming should wait a few RL days. That makes sense. We have no need to rush, and rushing has already outed a lot of information that might be more helpful to scum than town.
In post 452, teacher wrote:By the way, elephant -- baaaa. IF you want me to case my preferred list, I can.
I mean, yeah, make cases on scummy players. I'm not sure why I have to tell you to?

In terms of who I'm voting for, I'm focsuing on Meji/Nauci/Flicker, with other bad feelings between you and Thor that are currently slightly lower priority.

I want more from meji, including an answer to my question about Nauci, to get more information about both of them.
Acutally, VOTE: Meji Fan. If this is the only way to get you to talk, so be it.

Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between and . Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about compared to ? Or , where Teacher throws out sheeping me? ? And at least three other posts of your choice.
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Post Post #460 (isolation #33) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:24 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Flicker, what do you think about the JB voters? Was there scum refusing to see what you saw when you unvoted? Or did scum completely let town lynch itself?

busier today than most weekdays, but I'll try to pop back in again later.
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Post Post #493 (isolation #34) » Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:46 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Sorry don't have time to do much else today exceptsay I'll be very curious to see what meji posts when I come back tomorrow.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #35) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:29 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wow, okay, this game day is moving much faster than the last. Catching up...

I don't cc anything.

Assuming Teacher is telling the truth (could still be c2), Thor would make sense as mafia. Wondering if anyone else sees the possibility of a Teacher lie here, though? His "game breaking" at the start of D2 was interesting but not neccessarily ever quite helpful, and speaking of odds, what are the odds both town PRs and the scum kill hit one player?

I know I said I'd start today assuming a town Teacher, but mislynching the IC would probably be worth a fake claim if Teacher's scum...

@Thor, what do you think of this possibility?

Gonna go ISO Thor.

@MEJI
In post 173, Irrelephant11 wrote:is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?
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Post Post #532 (isolation #36) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:48 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Oh and Teacher, lay out the case for Thor as if you don't have any extra information, because none of the rest of us do. Please and thanks
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Post Post #534 (isolation #37) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:56 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 439, Thor665 wrote:I'm also thinking either teacher is scum or one of my town reads is wrong.
Let's dance with the lawyer.

VOTE: Teacher
Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?
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Post Post #552 (isolation #38) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:52 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wow Thor ISO remains incredibly hard to read. There's a lot of questions there, and he comes across as very casual D1. Mayyybe those things mean scum, since he never pushed hard for any particular lynch? Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off? Why focus so heavy on the three not-NK15 players on the wagon instead of the three players off the wagon?
In post 542, Thor665 wrote:
In post 534, Irrelephant11 wrote:Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?
What was his scum advantage to claim at that stage?
If this was Day 3 I'd agree with you, but Day 2 is a lot riskier for him if he's scum.
I also don't see my play being a massive danger to him since he already had a big wagon going on Meji (that he was driving) so unless the argument is he's Meji's partner and really didn't expect his bus to work really well and had to hard abort via a fakeclaim - I don't see a clear scum logic for his play.
With lack of scum logic - I presume town claim, thus guardedly confirmed town.

What do you see as the scum logic I should follow for him?
I mean, some possibilities include saving Meji as tomorrow's easy mislynch, saving Meji his scum partner that he wasn't sure I'd vote (but had to follow me because he said he would) (note: this is the one you listed, so you
can
see scum logic there), trying this move that he wanted to save till D3 on D2 so it doesn't look suspicious on D3...
Oh, or maybe he just wanted to claim a power role to avoid the lynch forever?

Overall, I am mostly confused on why you're voting Oxy when Teacher cannot prove he is telling the truth, has over-exaggerated the numbers to push a town lynch (from your POV), up until this claim (that came from your scumeread) you were townreading Oxy, and there's at least one player
off
the JB wagon who you've said you find very suspicious.

idk who I find scummy out of Teacher/Thor, if either, but Thor's trust of Teacher is odd.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #39) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 6:52 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Actually, scratch that, until Thor addresses these questions I do find him somewhat scummy.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #40) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:00 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 560, Thor665 wrote:Because game statistics suggest a high prevalence for scum on the wagon to be 1 or more.
It is more likely that 2 scum are on the wagon then both scum are off.
Therefore it is more likely that scum are on the wagon in some array, and if I have slots I can rule out...
Make sense?
Yes. Do you currently think there are two scum on the wagon?
In post 560, Thor665 wrote: Most of those are really bad plays and thin grasps at straws - you see that, right? Or would you like me to explain how unlikely they are specifically?
Why isn't it likely that Teacher made a bad play? He himself admits he's played poorly today.
In post 560, Thor665 wrote:As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.
He was in no danger.
He was reversing his push.

Literally the only issue I have with teacher currently is terrible logic (which he hasn't been around to pursue) and I'll be curious to understand why he had all this info on me during the period where he knew I was jailed up until the point he voted me (but he hasn't been around to engage)

In the mean time presuming him as scum and pressing Oxy seems brilliant to me.
Do you see any reason to hard town read Oxy?
Do you think Oxy's play with me has looked like town play?
To the last sentence: yes
To the second to last: unsure
To the third to last: Does this mean you
do
think Teacher is scum, and you're just pressing Oxy in the meantime?
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Post Post #566 (isolation #41) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:22 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?

derpy and scum was my D1 read on Teacher, but I guess if you don't see it you don't see it

I mean in you said you're "willing to believe Teacher's claim." That means that, whether you consider him confrmed or not, you consider him town. That's a different level than saying you "don't see much value in lynching him today."


Re:Oxy, I am experiencing now what he was trying to avoid - lots of talk coming from you that seems to cloud things up rather than make them clear. You seem to be asking questions for questions' sake, rather than for their answers.
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Post Post #567 (isolation #42) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:24 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 564, Thor665 wrote:They would have to be living in utter terror of me to try to kill me at night *and* try a fakeclaim gambit to get me lynched
I mean, I'll also note that you being jailed means you're either target or scum. If it's not scum, then you're semi-confirmed town. If you're town, scum has incentive now to want you dead.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #43) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:49 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Flicker, a question:

(Flicker quote sabout what happened last night:)
Spoiler:
In post 469, Flicker wrote:Assuming NK15 is telling the truth for now, of the three options available to explain the no night kill, I feel like the most likely to least likely scenario is:

1. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
3. Thor was scum's night kill target.

Now, in backwards order, my reasons:

3. Given how ambivalent/wary most people were about Thor D1, I feel like any half-decent scum would leave him in to sow doubt rather than target him.
2. If Thor is scum, and his partner is less suspected by town, I feel like his partner would have submitted the night kill. (There's a possibility that his partner is more suspected than he is, but then that would be Meji or teacher, and there's a possibility that if one of them also has a role, they split their night actions.)
1. If scum failed to get the night kill in, that would seem to point to the two less-active players at the time, Nauci and Meji.
In post 480, Flicker wrote:
In post 474, teacher wrote:@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.
I know it's implausible, I just think it's
less
implausible than the other scenarios I listed. It's a PoE read more than a certainty thing.


Thor is IC, and so makes sense as a nightkill. Teacher brought forward information that Thor makes sense as scum. The only two "lurkers" have been Meji Fan and Nauci, and Meji Fan has clearly been around (just not posting enough). Is this still the order of likely scenarios in your mind?
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Post Post #573 (isolation #44) » Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:13 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I'm about to head out for the weekend, and will likely only get my usual single post in. In the meantime I agree that Meji is still priority 1, but think more pressure needs to go on Thor, Flicker, and Nauci.

@Nauci
In post 459, Irrelephant11 wrote:Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between and . Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about compared to ? Or , where Teacher throws out sheeping me? ? And at least three other posts of your choice.
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Post Post #621 (isolation #45) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:37 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

So sorry, didn't have my usual opportunity for a weekend post. Catching up, guessing my least favorite will stay Meji, and gonna try to understand the new votes.
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Post Post #622 (isolation #46) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:07 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

To start, (Teacher's Thor is scum post) is fairly convincing. There's definitely some stuff there that I see coming from scum more likely than town. However,
Spoiler:
In post 583, Meji Fan wrote:Just remember Nauci after you lynch me
In post 588, Meji Fan wrote:Nauci is still better, and even if you like Thor what makes me a better friend for Thor than Nauci?

Lets look at Thor
Nauci and Thor have lots of chatter in the RVS stage silliness on mostly inconsequential stuff
Thor also takes pains to try and make my cases on Nauci look silly
Thor mentions Nauci and Meji are both interesting but then goes right to voting teacher 439
Thor says Nauci looks scum 558, still not voting Nauci

Are we sure we're not lynching this?

Meji has ignored my question about the reasoning behind their scum read on Nauci three times now. Meji is now saying "Oh you think it's Thor? Great, well that points to Nauci lol." I feel like we're all gonna be kicking ourselves if we let a Meji/Nauci team watch us lynch each other to death while laughing behind the sceens about Meji only ever saying "guys lynch Nauci".
In post 609, teacher wrote:Thats the middle of my case, and why I want to lynch Thor more than Meji. I cant figure out who Meji could be partnered with if not Thor. The only other possibility given voting patterns is Nauci. But thats a hard hard stretch for me, given the early and hard tunnel.
Is it a hard tunnel? No one has ever taken it seriously. I agree that Meji/Thor makes sense as a team, especially given Thor's reluctance to inspect Meji Fan in the slightest this game day. However, I see Meji/Nauci easily, since we're all ignoring the content of Meji's posts - also, no town person should ever be playing to get ignored! Meji is playing a game of "as long as I'm the second-scummiest at all times, I'll live." Idk if partner is more likely Nauci or Thor (and I'll agree with Oxy that Flicker isn't totally off the table... Flicker is looking worse this game day for SURE), but ignoring the statistics case Meji is clearly the scummiest player.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #47) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:11 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 601, Thor665 wrote:
In post 566, Irrelephant11 wrote:If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?
I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?
You should vote off the wagon because that's where the scummy players are (including according to pre-Teacher-claim Thor)? Which was always my point that has always made sense, thank you very much.

Flicker, now that I'm here, should I be reading as your intent to hammer Thor?
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Post Post #626 (isolation #48) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:30 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

No,
Iknow
you've been saying scum are more likely to be on the wagon than off. The problem I have with that is it doesn't line up with your general scum reads. At the point at which your on-wagon scumreads claimed power roles, I'd expect you to adjust your vote analysis. Instead, you've started scum reading previous town reads. A new question from mfor you - why does your vote analysis matter more to you than who you said is playing scummy D1/at day start?

Also, come to think of it, why are you so sure about where scum voted? At first, I assumed it had to do with some mix of randomness statistics and the perceived alignments of the particular players who did/didn't vote for JB. But now you're showing that you're so confident in your voting logic that it makes you scum read previous town reads when process of elimination tells you to. What gives you this confidence, even as circumstances surrounding players' aligments change?
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Post Post #633 (isolation #49) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:07 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wow if you're being obstinate scum then I am really getting too caught up. If you're town it's really frustrating how much I have to try to communicate this single idea to you.

Let me try to illustrate what I'm saying:

A B C D E voted out town
F G H voted other players.
You're A, and think B, C, and F are scummy. Therefore, you think and say, more scum were on the wagon than off.

Then, you become convinced B and C are town PRs. You
ignore
F, and start trying to decide which of D and/or E are scum.

This no longer fits random chance, since from your POV there are more scum prospects off the wagon than on (3:2, if you choose to ignore all PR claimants). This no longer fits any read you've expresed previously. It ignores F, who you've said is scummy.

Yes, you've said in advance that if you're wrong about B and/or C, yo'ud reevaluate. But you're not reevaluating the statement "more scum were likely to be on the wagon than off", which imo would be the logical thing to do. Instead, you're reevaluating which of the players on the wagon are scum.

You never answered my question about why you are so confident in your vote analysis. You seem unrealistically confident about
where
scum voted, even if that takes you to a place where you have to flip your reads: this doesn't make sense to me if reads are the reason for your vote analysis. You've changed your reads to fit the vote analysis that's based on out-of-date reads.

Are you at all catching where the cognitive dissonance is for me? I'm only finding logic for you to scum read Oxy out of nowhere if you are scum trying to ignore your lurker partner.

pedit: welp sorry that we're all asking basically the same thing here, but since I wrote this all out I'm not deleting it, so there.
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Post Post #644 (isolation #50) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:32 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?

Also, I wanted to read your case on Oxy quick, and this is all I found.
In post 614, Thor665 wrote:Oxy says he thinks I'm scum - go back and read a few of my questions to him that he hasn't answered.
Then note that, for some reason, you're wagoning me.

Meh.
Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?
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Post Post #653 (isolation #51) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:06 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 651, Thor665 wrote:
In post 644, Irrelephant11 wrote:I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?
I wouldn't pu tit to that level o fpsychotic even though multiple people now appear to think I am, so maybe I'm explaining myself overly intensely - but, yes.
In post 644, Irrelephant11 wrote:Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?
Oxy is scummy for empty cheerleading a lynch and also trying to hang to the rear of every issue.
1. Okay. I now understand you, even though I disagree with you.
2. Tell me more. With intent to hammer stated, you have nothing to lose as town by sharing more about your current scummiest read.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #52) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:25 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 654, Thor665 wrote:1. Cool
2. What sort of "more" would you like? I prefer succinct cases because I think long ones lead to including dumb theories and paranoia. I can provide examples of him doing what I'm saying he's doing, if that excites you, but unless my case is confusing you as to what I'm saying I don't see a real need/value to using more words to say the same thing.
A couple examples would be nice.

@NK15, Flicker has stated intent, and I'd rather not give her the opportunity to back out of it later or take false credit next game day (e.g. "He's town? I was totally gonna take back my intent?" "He's scum? See, intent was there!") At this point I'm playing like it's twilight. I'm asking Thor to say more so we have more to analyze later, and hoping that Nauci gets some reads in because whether she's sick town or lurky scum I want her to talk more before the day ends. I do also feel strongly at this point that Thor is one of our two best lynch options, but I don't see the use in rushing the lynch? Let me know if I'm misssing a good reason to move more quickly
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Post Post #684 (isolation #53) » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:32 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 663, teacher wrote:
In post 661, Thor665 wrote:If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.
Am I mistaken, or does Thor AGREES with the associative case on him. Flipping town!thor clears Meji (as its not in the OXY or ME partner pool). Thus, tomorrow town starts with two lock- or likely- towns in the (NK, Meji, me) pool even if it is a mislynch. Even if Im misreading, this is again Thor trying not to get people to vote Meji.....
I'm not sure I'm of the mind that town Thor
completely
frees Meji to be town? Like yes Meji/Nauci sounds implausible, but couldn't that be the strategy?

I'm gonna go re-read Meji/____ ISOs.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #54) » Thu May 03, 2018 8:58 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 754, Oxy wrote:If you have a red check, scum already knows who the red check is on. That person is probably not going to spew prior to your check.
How's this? Yesterday I thought mafia were informed they were jailkept, and I was corrected. Is it the case that mafia
are
informed if they were tracked?

@brassherald, welcome. When you get a chance, I'd love to hear your thoughts on followed by answering this on behalf of your slot:
In post 459, Irrelephant11 wrote:Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between and . Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about compared to ? Or , where Teacher throws out sheeping me? ? And at least three other posts of your choice.
Agreed that this and other thoughts should wait for teacher.
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Post Post #767 (isolation #55) » Thu May 03, 2018 9:32 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

hmmm

If you got no useful result, saying so will make it easier for the scum to townread each other and make this round les sclear. In this case, you should keep it to yourself at first

If you found a scum, saying so will 1v1 you and that player (better for town overall) while allowing the other scum to hide better. In this case, you should definitely tell us who we ought to kill, and waiting too long lowers the effectiveness of this option by making you more suspicious.

If you're scum with a fake result, waiting allows you to gather information and make the call that helps your wincon the most. Also in this case, your request for 4 players to ask for information is a request for everyone but your buddy to intentionally ask, which seems unlikely given meji/flicker activity levels

The only way I see waiting as being pro-town is if you got no result and you want to see scum town read each other, even though in this case you wouldn't know who either of the scum are anyway. So, in the most pro-town situation, it's next to useless.

Probably just say what happened last night?

pedit: well that's that
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Post Post #773 (isolation #56) » Thu May 03, 2018 10:05 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@Oxy I think you likely had it right
In post 448, Oxy wrote:realistically, though. I think the team is simply 2 of {meji, flicker, nauci}.
but how do you feel about teacher at this point? seemed like you wanted thor dead because of teacher, but post-flip I'm curious your feelings

@meji tell me about the world in which you're town. Who's the scum team? Why?

@teacher why track Flicker?

brassherald and Flicker have promised more, I'll be excited to see it tomorrow. peace out for now

pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye
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Post Post #803 (isolation #57) » Fri May 04, 2018 2:37 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wow okay to start
In post 801, teacher wrote:@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.
A is twisting the truth. A false red check from scum you would make a scum win less likely, not more. 1v1 narrows down the options to a 50/50 shot, which is better than our current 33% shot.

I've been thinking a lot about potential scum teacher, and I think his crumbing makes sense as a mafia who always expected to make a claim, knowing that it's column 3 and there's a 2/3 shot that there's an open PR spot to claim. If he had decided to give us something other than the Flicker miss, he could have just not brought up his D2 crumbing and I know I wouldn't have ever noticed it.

NK15 scum reading teacher isn't completely impossible, though - teacher pushed thor's lynch, and thor's flip moves teacher toward scum possibilities. Except that this is more of a reason to scumread teacher, and less of a reason to expect NK15 would jail him especially given in which NK15 literally says

"If Thor is town... Follow Teacher and their leads"

I'm not ready to vote because scum an quickhammer anyone with two votes but this
FoS on teacher
is more like Both Hands of Suspicion

teacher there is a world where you're town but there's not a world where you're town and Oxy is scum in my mind (yes I am suggesting that Oxy's only possible scum partner from my POV is teacher). If anyone wants me voting Oxy make a v strong case.
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Post Post #804 (isolation #58) » Fri May 04, 2018 3:00 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 788, Flicker wrote:
In post 773, Irrelephant11 wrote:pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye
It's mostly his read on me (which, again, helps no one else, and also town players can have wrong reads) and his shift on Thor D2. On D1, he says Thor's being pushed for silly reasons (post #164); on D2, he pushes Thor on (in hindsight) somewhat silly reasons. Also, he accused me of bussing Meji, but could that be a cover for him actually bussing Meji, on both days? And then when it looks like Meji could actually get lynched D2, he jumps off (and back) to Thor?

I don't know; it's not a strong read. Honestly, I just don't feel he's town enough to take him
out
of the suspect pool.
Feeling bad about this. As the first person to throw suspicion Oxy's way I was excited to hear your case - I don't think scum makes a case on someone who isn't an easy mislynch, it seems much more likely to come from genuine town- but you're basically backing off the first chance you get. Seems more like you were hoping for someone else to get behind this and are disappointed to realize your mislynch options are being narrowed by town
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Post Post #806 (isolation #59) » Fri May 04, 2018 3:26 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

3: lol not sure how I got a "simple question" rep this game, but sure - honestly, I don't ever ever ever see Nauci's swearing pushing DDS out of the game if they're the team. It would have to be a bizarre play where DDS asked for a replacement as a ploy, which I think might be against the rules? Replacing can't be playing to DDS's wincon (can't win a game you're not playing), even if it plays to Nauci's wincon - therefore, against the rules as a a trick, and nearly impossible as anything else.

2: You were pressured into revealing your read before you had planned on it. I'm not totally sold you're scum, but this argument doesn't do much for me.

1: This is also not helping. It's starting to look like you're intentionally leaving out part of NK15's statement - "follow teacher
and his reads
".

Tell me more about Oxy scum, which is almost completely new coming from you. Also make a case on brass that doesn't include Nauci's pattern of being missing. Rereading Nauci as simply incapable of playing sometimes really sucks a lot of scumminess out of the read for me.
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Post Post #814 (isolation #60) » Fri May 04, 2018 4:36 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 812, teacher wrote:Re Oxy's 807-809:

For those sussing me, answer this: WHO is my teammate?
  • Can't be elephant, according to Oxy -- why would i make such a strong association so early?
  • Shouldn't be Brass -- why would I be pushing them today?
  • Shouldnt be Meji -- why would I have left the choice between Thor and Meji up to NK after acknowledging the case was weaker on a 1v1 basis?
  • Can't be Oxy -- he's the one pushing me now.
That leaves Flicker. I scum him so am interested in the case on her associations (with me AND with others on the board).

The one thing I will say is that town has legitimate reason to sus or lynch me. Im the only spot on the board that is truly 50/50 given my claim. But I know lynching me loses the game for town. So I view those trying to get me the hardest as scums trying to lead a mislynch with an acceptable case.
lol at this. "I view those trying to get me the hardest as scums trying to lead a mislynch with an acceptable case." can only mean me and Oxy, who you just said are most likely town like two posts ago

Also both of these
"Shouldn't be Brass -- why would I be pushing them today?
Shouldnt be Meji -- why would I have left the choice between Thor and Meji up to NK after acknowledging the case was weaker on a 1v1 basis?" are WIFOMy as all get out.

Also you rpartner could very well could be Flicker and pointing out that you suspect them is just saying "scummy player is scummy" which a mafioso can do.

I need the other half of the game to chime in, we're going in circles here.

pedit: sure, scum team might have the townier player (e.g you in this case) do the kill. Or maybe after thor's flip you knew you weren't the townier player any more. Also probably it's a coin flip who should make the kill when you've got a fake claim going
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Post Post #821 (isolation #61) » Fri May 04, 2018 5:08 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 819, teacher wrote:and then after the fact see how it makes sense with NK's final words.
This is possibly my biggest scummy thing about you rn. You seem unwilling to admit that, if JK15 did indeed jail you, it
does not align with his words
. You keep trying to twist his "follow teacher" into something it will never mean, which is a scummy move to me. I would be more likely to believe you had you said "I know, it makes no sense, it's not what he said at all, but maybe he thought I was scum after the flip." NK15's words simply
do not mean
to suspect you.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #62) » Fri May 04, 2018 10:03 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

lol. About to head out for the weekend. Currently thinking it's teacher/Flicker. I have a case (I've gathered posts), but can't type it out till Monday since I have to head out. A few highlights before I go:

where teacher picks me, Oxy, and Flicker for a "townblock" "as long as it isn't on [teacher]"

Flicker's early vote on teacher in which she has never since really pursued, at least that I can find, and her current "maybe I'm a sucker but teacher seems trustworthy" read

teacher's reads on Flicker go from townread to null to nullish scum to town and town again D1 (, , , , )

Flicker says "If you flip town I'm gonna be disappointed" and " I don't need to "suck up" or get town cred from anyone, I'm hoping people correctly read me as town based on my pro-town contributions." which both do actually come across as looking for town-cred.

From teacher's most recent attempt to find a mislynch:

"I am reading everything
to see if it makes sense from a scum team, and it does. They could well be A team.
I am explicitly not saying this is THE team."

"Like I said at the start,
theres really not much in there
. Maybe a couple questionable actions, and some coordination, but nothing obvious until .....
Day 3
Today’s shared push on me. Could be scum trying for a mislynch win,
but like I said the case is legit.
"

(emphasis mine) Yikes.



If I'm right, I'm annoyed at Meji Fan for lack of posts all game.

See y'all for a single post this weekend, and then for some real in depth stuff Monday (it's good to look into all realistic pairs before lynch - also nobody bring anyone to L-2 until all four of us have agreed)
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Post Post #873 (isolation #63) » Sun May 06, 2018 5:51 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Weekend short post:

Honestly an Oxy/me team is ridiculous, and the worst argument. Looks more like Flicker and teacher are aligned each time Flicker posts. Any chance it’s brass and Meji though? Not much attention over there anymore. That’s the question I’ll be exploring tomorrow.

@Oxy re:854 I’m curious if teacher’s “lack of setup understanding” makes sense from a scum who considered claiming doctor? Not enough time to go back and read it.
@teach re:870 Associational? Like I’m scum because Oxy is scum? Even though your post about us being scum included points about why why our team is a weak argument?

Meji at this point we need you to post. Like I just need you to talk more to have any chance of a town win.

More to respond than this, obvs. See ya tomorrow
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Post Post #884 (isolation #64) » Mon May 07, 2018 2:58 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 822, teacher wrote:
In post 814, Irrelephant11 wrote:Also probably it's a coin flip who should make the kill when you've got a fake claim going
How is this a coinflip under your interpretation of NK?
The coinflip is which of you/your teammate would make the kill. Sure, you might be less suspected by NK15 than your potential partner, but as the fakeclaim you've also got more attention on you. Also, I'll add here that saying "NK15 thought I was town, so why wouldn't I make the kill?" definitely undercuts your "NK15 thought I was scum, so that's why he really did jailkeep me."
In post 837, teacher wrote:OK, I do concede Flicker and I COULD be a team, but the problem I see with that is Flicker's D1 -- voting me and trying to get others to join her in the 100s, and then getting angry with me for delaying and ultimately getting off a wagon just as I was getting on in the 250s-300s. Heading out the door as well.
A bunch of pressure D1 with few actual votes and therefore low stakes sounds
exactly
like what a scum partner would do.
In post 835, teacher wrote:@Oxy/Elephant: By the way, if you wont assume town me and build a scum team from the pool, then at least pair me. I'm biased but I dont see it.
Gonna do both of these things, actually (assume town you and pair you). Coming soon
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Post Post #887 (isolation #65) » Mon May 07, 2018 5:00 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Okay, to start,
teacher
&
Flicker
team
- based on meji's last post, I'm seeing a >0% chance meji is teacher's partner, but it's still unlikely imo, so this pair first:

I've never liked teacher's posts, btw. D1 teacher includes things like "informal vote counts" (, ) and other information w/o analysis (, ) that are safe ways of looking towny without actually helping town (assuming town has paid any attention to the game).

Flicker's first post includes a policy lynch vote on James Brafin and the quote "I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet." In post . She stays consistent throughout D1 that James Brafin and teacher are her two scummiest reads. At the time, this made sense to me - I also thought both were scummy. In retrospect, though, Flicker eventually reverses course on both players in a scummy way. By the end of D1, she hops off the JB vote at the last second, and doesn't land anywhere in particular. Meanwhile, her & teacher's reads of each other evolve like this:

Spoiler:
:
"I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS."
(basically, "teacher is my second favorite scumread based on his first post").
:
"Slight townread."

:
"VOTE: teacher"

:
"Flicker: From slight town read to nullread."

:
"for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings."

:
"My gut. If want reasoning, ask... Flicer -> slight town."

:
"this "differences in meta" explanation would be a weird, detailed lie, so I'm inclined to take your word for it, which also tanks most of my scum-read on you... Null: Oxy & teacher, Meji"

Same post:
"PEdit: I doubt moving my vote to Meji (or quiet posters more generally) will prompt them to post, but since it's that, move James to L-1, or just unvote (which is fairly pointless IMO), I guess I'll leave my vote where it is for now? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯"

: "
I townlean Flicker"


Overall, D1 they take pains to have not-town reads on each other at times (including a "she voted me how could we be a team" vote) but "evolve" to townreads based on... very little, honestly
Night 1

:
"From yesterday's end, I have 1. NK, 2. Nauci/Meji (order intentional), and 4. Flicker as suspects."

:
"VOTE: Nauci, Meji, Thor, Flicker."

:
"Likely scum: Meji, Thor
PoE from scummy to townie: Flicker, Nauci, Elephant, Oxy"


teacher keeps including Flicker in scum lists, but always near the bottom. Notably,
Flicker offers no read of teacher either way D2, not even to say she believes his claim

Night 2

:
"I tried to track Flicker"

:
"Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim."

:
That leaves Flicker. I scum him so am interested in the case on her associations (with me AND with others on the board).

:
I do concede Flicker and I COULD be a team
( :wink: :P )
:
"I still believe he's the tracker."


doing this ISO process showed me that Flicker is TERRIBLE D2. Aside from how unlikely I think it is that teacher is tracker at this point, Flicker's D2 would be my scummiest read and my vote today.

For example,
In post 469, Flicker wrote:Assuming NK15 is telling the truth for now, of the three options available to explain the no night kill, I feel like the most likely to least likely scenario is:

1. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
3. Thor was scum's night kill target.
makes NO sense, unless there's some chance Flicker/someone didn't get a nightkill in, or to add confusion? Otherwise, why assume this is the most likely option? She later course corrects in when I ask about it, saying that the new most likely option is that Thor was scum's nightkill target.
And then she votes Thor a few ISO posts later without any further analysis.


This post is taking a long time to write, plus there's not much more on this team to add, so I'm gonna post it so y'all can start discussing.
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Post Post #888 (isolation #66) » Mon May 07, 2018 5:08 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Forgot to summarize thoughts on D3 reads of each other - Still makes sense as scum team. Their mismatching reads make it harder to lynch teacher (Flicker refuses to vote him) while setting Flicker up as the sacrifice for teacher's towncred.

Also teacher's D1 "townblock" with me, Oxy, and Flicker is almost genius given a teacher/flicker team. Four votes going anywhere but scum will always work out for them

Meanwhile, an Oxy/me team is ridiculous. teacher says the only scummy thing about either of us is how we're working together to push hard for his mislynch and we had similar reads D2. If we were scum, neither of those things would happen? Like in whatworld do two scum parrot each other two days in a row? Compare this to the likelihood that Oxy and I just honestly can't find scum teams for the other (at least I assume Oxy feels this way I don't remember if he's said it) and town read each other.

Next, a town teacher world, wherein it probably is Flicker/brass, but I'm not ignoring meji just yet, because town meji has played pretty poorly but scum meji has played great.
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Post Post #890 (isolation #67) » Mon May 07, 2018 6:56 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Ughhhh turns out I don't have time to make another case today, sorry. I'll try again tomorrow

I agree I played differently Friday and somewhat today, too. That's intentional. I'm frustrated at the game state and feel like we've caught a scumslip, but by any measure at least one townie is lurking and all four of us have to get on the same page. I want to lynch scum for once and it's annoyinlgy difficult.

Last game day, I thought Meji was the scummiest player. I didn't push back hard against a Thor lynch because I thought your claim was likely true and therefore Thor's scumminess was high, not to mention a Thor/Meji team made sense to me. Today, I wouldn't say Meji is anywhere near the most pro-town player, but a most team tells seem weak, as we have all noted.
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Post Post #891 (isolation #68) » Mon May 07, 2018 7:35 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Oh also what's not to like about DDS's 126? He makes useful comments on multiple players in a way that advances the game. Unless you're just bothered that I townread DDS who was later replaced by Oxy who is now voting you? Like..?

Just noting this, too:
In post 787, teacher wrote:@Oxy - I’ll poke around for an article but would appreciate pointers too. It is counter to my own intuition. My thought is that I (as tracker) will die tonight regardless of actions today and my death provides almost no information we don’t have now (you would learn I’m town, but I don’t think my slot affects many others, especially as my only hard associatives are Meji and elephant).

Under your plan, we share reads, discuss merits but don’t lynch. This makes no sense - scum gets to both learn their relative position AND kill town. They won’t kill anyone except me given the risk of tracking. Brass points out the error here.

Under the plan of passing the day in silence, no information is advanced, and we go from mylo to lylo in essentially the same place as now.

Thus based only on subway thoughts I think we lynch
"No lynch would be bad"
In post 802, teacher wrote:SOMETHING VERY STRANGE JUST HAPPENED.
In post 774, Oxy wrote:Flicker is an ideal track target, and the crumbing during twilight is a lot more legitimate than it would have been D3. +town points
In post 778, Oxy wrote:It was a really good crumb. I still have to go back to make sure he didn't crumb anyone else as well, of course.
In post 783, Oxy wrote:omewhere there is some good analysis for why lynching at mylo is simply worse.
In post 794, Oxy wrote:I'm going to make one more pitch for a No lynch.
In post 800, Oxy wrote:VOTE: teacher
I am now basically convinced of a Brass-Oxy team. I still think Brass makes the most sense to lynch. But I put my pool up there. I think we have at least the same 50% chance of hitting scum within it that we would have tomorrow.
"Oxy changing his mind on whether or not to lynch is proof-scum behavior!"
In post 889, teacher wrote:Right now, I am still inclined to believe in the Oxy-Elephant team. But I also think the town may well gain the most by sleeping - it at least outs information (whether my removing a mislynch, adding a track, or both). In other words, Im not yet confident enough to vote either Oxy or you myself, in part because I had towned both of you for most of the game based purely on individual playstyle, without considering the associations. If you are scum, well done. If you are town, help convince town!me to join a block with you again by building this case or calling attention to things Ive missed (like you did with Brass-Oxy).
"No lynch is our best course"

I should be doingo ther things, be back later
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Post Post #894 (isolation #69) » Mon May 07, 2018 8:08 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Re: 892
I'm not arguing that information can't change things. I'm saying that your attempt to throw shade on Oxy for something you are now doing is scummy (i.e. changing mind on lynching based on new information).
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Post Post #896 (isolation #70) » Mon May 07, 2018 8:46 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

You're right, he said that in 808. I don't see you dropping it, though, unless you mean you literally stopped talking about it, which is true from what I can find but not a reason to townread you.

what's a chainsaw defense?

I'm gonna be so annoyed if it's flicker/brass at this point
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Post Post #914 (isolation #71) » Tue May 08, 2018 2:51 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 911, Meji Fan wrote:It just means we get another Night Kill of WIFOM to deal with and do it all over again
This. I think which players want a no lynch is somewhat telling, though almost too obvious to be alignment indicative, though maybe that's part of it? MYLO wifom is hard.

Flicker, you seem sure that town will do better after a nightkill. Talk me through this. I n a pretend world where:

A, E, I, and O are town while U and Y are scum,

and A, E, and I say U is scum while O, U, and Y say E is scum, how does a nightkill help more than playing today out? (this is intentionally not a perfect parallel to our game, it's just a talking point)

Seems like one of Ab/Ef/Ij always dies, leaving the game easier for scum to win. Until now, all players but you have shared lotsa reads info, so scum only has 1 source of guesswork overnight, or 0 if somehow you're town and die tonight. What's left for town to gain from this?
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Post Post #915 (isolation #72) » Tue May 08, 2018 2:53 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

lol EBWOP "one of A/E/I always dies" (I had originally named them Ab, Ef, Ij, Op, Uv, and Yz but it was hard to read... anyway)
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Post Post #919 (isolation #73) » Tue May 08, 2018 4:30 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Oxy, tell me more about teacher/brass - I'd been discounting it but don't remember why. Do you have a case laid out at this point?

I think it's very unlikely that teacher is not scum at this point. We've said a lot of words this game day but NK15 jailing teacher still sounds like a quick lie thought up when most players pressured teacher into giving up last night's results. It contradicts NK15 directly, it gives the least amount of information, and it both defends and busses Flicker (coming across as both "I suspect Flicker" AND "I didn't see Flicker do a nightkill"). The obvious move here is to vote teacher, and I feel that no lynch would only make it harder to hit scum: yes, random chance hits scum more often with one fewer player, but it also takes just one wrong town player to lose the game. Also, the above post directly contradicts the point of no lynch - hide info from scum so they make the revealing choice. I don't understand laying out all teacher-POV scumteams while aiming for a no lynch.

I did promise to case a not-teacher scumteam today, though, so I will at some point.
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Post Post #923 (isolation #74) » Tue May 08, 2018 6:19 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

To start, teacher, I have a proposal. Let's spend 24 hours town-reading each other. This will include my team-casing outside of your scumminess, and your response to it. I think you're the scummiest in the game currently, and you seem to think Oxy/me share equal parts most scummy. But if either of us were town who was 100% sure, we'd have voted each other by now.

I refuse to lose to a completely lurker scum team by tunneling on each other, so regardless of if you accept, I'm gonna take the next 24 hours to read town motivation in each of your posts and find scum elsewhere. Let's see if anything new comes to light.

If not, I'm probably voting teacher before the game day ends. I don't see no lynch being as helpful as it is risky, though if any player other than my two scummiest reads make an argument for it, I'll reconsider.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #75) » Tue May 08, 2018 9:03 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

So Meji is basically out of any scumteam I come up with. Meji voting Nauci/brass for most of the game for no discernible reason is weird, but does rule out a meji/nauci team for me. If that is the team, I quit. It's the most insane gamble of a gimmick ever, and if it wins it deserves lots of praise, but meanwhile I've gotta rule it out.

Everyone else alive participated in bringing Meji to L-1 on D2, with the possibility that any other town player could hammer for scummy play. If meji is scum, maybe I'll reevaluate and figure that out after someone flips red, but meanwhile I've gotta rule it out.

I'm playing out potential worlds where teacher isn't scum, so currently ruling that out.

dds and nauci were never a team, so oxy and brassherald aren't a team.

that leaves oxy/flicker, brassherald/flicker. Interesting. I do feel terrible about Flicker's D2 regardless of partner, so that makes sense. I'm only now realizing that I ruled out oxy/flicker pretty quickly (plus the other team has been cased today), so I'm ISOing that first.

Hmmm. D1, DDS townread Flicker, but Oxy scumread them hard at entrance (around ). Could maybe be a way of early distancing? and are super weird if they're a team, though. As are and . Okay, yeah, I'm remembering why I didn't think this was the team. SidenoteL In this world, teacher's "town block" is hilariously bad. Not sure what to do with while analyzing teamy-ness.

Then their reads actually match a lot of the time D2 (e.g. voting Meji), except that Oxy has consistently included Flicker in scumread lists all game, which would be weird and unnecessary for a scumteam, especially since no one else has pushed as hard against Flicker until today. Oxy says he's happy to help Flicker bus her partner Meji, which is a weird form of sideways bussing in a world these are scum. and 6 really make this team crash into the ground. It's sorta similar to DDS/Nauci.

Today, both players have given each other "not quite my favorite lynch" status which does slightly strengthen the scum case, but overall I find it unlikely that Oxy has thrown Flicker's name around so casuallywhile Flicker has been quiet about Oxy in return. D3 co-reads aside, I find this team very very unlikely, especially based on their overall tone with one another throughout the game.

Which leaves me with brass/Flicker, which honestly seems sorta reasonable...

Actually, to add teacher back in (sorry I know this semi breaks our proposal but mostly it doesn't), I find oxy/teacher
extremely
unlikely, and almost nothing has pushed me toward teacher/brass. Flicker might actually be the best way to go? I have to leave early today, so I'll maybe try to check in late tonight if I get a chance
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Post Post #943 (isolation #76) » Tue May 08, 2018 9:05 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Re: 938 I would love to play more with y'all! Just concerned I might be too busy rn, at least until this game finishes. I'll hopefully run into you more here in the newbie list or other games, though
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Post Post #952 (isolation #77) » Wed May 09, 2018 2:06 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 944, teacher wrote:how does a pairing between Brass and me make sense given my actual push on Nauci D2 (which Flicker defended), and the push on Brass D3 (until Elephant made the DDS-Nauci point)
I know this question was to Oxy but I haven't explored it enough so I'm going to check it out at some point today

Also Flicker and Meji's last two posts are so bleh I almost just want to call them a team for it. Seems unlikely, but :roll:

I'm still in my 24-hour "teacher is town" period and I'm gonna spend a little bit trying to understand NK15 jailing teacher while I believe teacher. This should be fun,
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Post Post #979 (isolation #78) » Wed May 09, 2018 8:38 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Noooooooo my post got deleted right when I was almost done :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :cry: :cry: :cry:
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Post Post #982 (isolation #79) » Wed May 09, 2018 8:39 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

No, the page got refreshed, the text is gone.
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Post Post #983 (isolation #80) » Wed May 09, 2018 8:41 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

The content of the post was a town-case on teacher, my attempt to make sense of NK15 in a town-teacher world, and a bunch of responses to things from the past few pages. This is really disheartening, I was working on the post on-and-off all day today in between other things. I guess I'll probably try to make it again tomorrow, or at least a version of it.
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Post Post #997 (isolation #81) » Thu May 10, 2018 2:52 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

So I was too upset (and busy) to post again yesterday.

Here's the tl;dr

teacher as town makes some level of sense (more than flicker as town, for example). He's shown the most effort this game by word or psot count, which is hard to do as scum I'd think. This has included trying to gamesolve D2 (at least nominally) and pressuring many slots. If he's scum, he has done a good job of playing tryhardiness like a new town player might. I had pointed out particular posts, but this is a tl;dr, so.

Even if teacher is town, NK15's words still come across to me as "teacher is town, do what his night results suggest". I
can
maybe see him changing his mind overnight and not thinking much about how that would contradict his last words.

Now that the 24 hours are over, I still see teacher and flicker as the two scummiest players.

I'll respond to more recent stuff in a bit
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Post Post #999 (isolation #82) » Thu May 10, 2018 4:59 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@brass who do you want to lynch today? You've said Oxy is locktown from your POV, and you don't want a lynch, but who are you thinking of voting for?
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #83) » Thu May 10, 2018 5:07 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@meji you haven't elaborated on your scummy-Nauci/brass read since D1. Would you please do so now?

@everyone Another reason I'm scumreading teacher right now, btw, is his willingness to vote for three different people - whatever gets a majority. He has stated that he would vote brass, who he thinks is less scummy than both me and flicker (and from what I understand, me/oxy is his most likely scumteam), if it'll be a consensus lynch. This does not come across to me like a town player trying to find the right place to aim before shooting (see: oxy, meji), but rather someone who is happy to take a shot at anything that isn't him. In MYLO, that is scummy play imo.
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #84) » Thu May 10, 2018 5:27 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 772, Flicker wrote:Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim.
@Flicker, this is all you have said about teacher's night result. Most players then spent like two pages discussing it and its ramifications. Do you have any response to that discussion?
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #85) » Thu May 10, 2018 5:37 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@brass and Oxy, re:Meji/Flicker team - why doesn't the D2 run-up on meji disqualify this? Flicker was a part of that vote.
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Post Post #1013 (isolation #86) » Thu May 10, 2018 6:18 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@teacher: Well, no.


At this point teacher seems to be arguing from wilfull ignorance?

in a world where DDS/Nauci are spiteful scum, they have a
separate thread
to swear at each other without making things uncomfortable for the rest of us.

teacher is scumming oxy for voting flicker after interest in a brass lynch was expressed --> teacher is voting brass after interest in a flicker lynch was expressed

Thor also said to never follow you, so :wink:

Also, talk about keeping "team possibilities alive so [multiple] slots can still vote a mislynch." ~teacher,
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Post Post #1028 (isolation #87) » Thu May 10, 2018 9:16 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@teacher, what is brass's scum-motivation for pretending you're locktown PR at the start of the day?

sidenote: brass was only ever on a team with flicker/teacher (brass/meji is too much of a findmuck), both of whom seem actually willing to lynch him. I don't feel like the towncred earned by either of them, were they on a team with brass, would be worth giving up the opportunity to win with two scum. brasss is very likely town at this point.

I find teacher's most recent posts unconvincing and his motivations scummy. I'll scumcase him again, if that would be helpful to anyone. At this point I've read his ISO so much I could write sermons about it, and it reads scummier every time.

I think meji is getting semi-pocketed & teacher/flicker continues to be the team. If this is the case, Flicker and teacher are taking advantage of the fact that meji has expressed interest in voting brassherald to set up a mislynch.
Either that or flicker is getting hard pocketed (Flicker: you've asked "what does scum meji have to gain from townreading me?" and if you're town the answer is pocketing) and teacher/meji is the more subtle team.
Flicker/Meji comesin at third most likely, and in this case teacher just killed the chance to lynch scum anyway. I'd like to vote teacher.

Anyone want to try to stop me? L-2 is obviously dangerous, but if four townies are ever going to vote together L-2 has to happen at some point. I'll give you till sometime mid/late tomorrow (this seems to be enough time for flicker to respond?).
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #88) » Fri May 11, 2018 6:23 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Oh, I missed that on re-read. Well, okay. I disagree, still, I think.

Actually let me analyze some potential scum-teacher night result lies.

Spoiler: Long anaylsis
In a world where teacher/flicker is the team:
1: null- or red-checking someone other than flicker removes the option to point back to breadcrumb. Still, red-checking meji would possibly point back to flicker as the most likely partner/other scummy player. Also sets up a teacher/meji 1v1. Flicker makes the most sense as the teammate for either side of the 1v1 and so also has slight potential of votes/doesn't get listened to. Lowers likelihood of scum win overall, therefore bad choice.
2: Red-checking brass might have worked, but given the replacement maybe teacher wasn't sure he wanted to 1v1 a freshly energetic player. Has the similar problem re:Flicker, though nearly guaranteed to get meji's vote. Still, 1v1 lowers likelihood of scum win, therefore bad choice
3: I am of the opinion Oxy and I have both played townie enough games to be able to beat teacher 1v1 in most cases. Neither of us were ever getting a fake red check. Neither would Flicker in this team setup, obvs.
4: Null-checking me or Oxy is also weird, because "why didn't you aim for someone scummy"
5: Null-checking Meji or brassherald would probably not factor into D3 overall. We'd all move on and hunt for scum, with teacher on the table but not more than anyone else. First legitimate option so far, except for not being able to point to breadcrumb. imo scum teacher is excited to point to breadcrumb.
6: Null-checking Flicker brings attention to the team (if teacher ever flips red, flicker gets a lot more attention, if not outright suspicion) with mild benefit of pointing to breadcrumb. Not much worse than option 5, but probably not the choice scum would make here, because associations. This also makes it harder to mislynch meji by saying flicker/meji is the team, because "why wouldn't Flicker make the kill in that scenario"
7: No Result is an easy way to say "I tried to check someone scummy (townread me), but I can't tell you anything past that (no associations for you)." Unconfirmed PR also makes sense as the JK pick. That is, until one carefully reads NK15's final words, which I believe teacher did not do until he made the night result claim. Also, added bonus of hopefully being "just too weird of a lie".

In a teacher/meji world:
1, 2 and 3: false red-checking makes the game harder for scum, so I'm not re-analyzing this.
4: Stays the same
5: pretty much all still true, despite meji's different theoretical alignment.
6: Null-checking Flicker would make some sense. Flicker would probably like teacher for it (she's sometimes townread players who town her and scumread players who scum her). It also wouldn't reduce the opportunity to mislynch her much, because on most flicker teams she doesn't make the kill. The only team she does make the kill is when she's with meji, which also helps clear meji. Actually yeah if flicker is town this would have worked great.
7: No result is not as good as null-checking flicker, and that is probably very evident. Only reason to choose this is wifom.

Welp, this lowers the likelihood of a teacher/meji team, but in a teacher/flicker world, scum teacher who hadn't read NK15 carefully enough and was pressured to make a pick really would be very likley to choose no result.

Fun how more analysis and information keeps pointing me in the same direction :)
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #89) » Fri May 11, 2018 7:05 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

oh good point, I was thinking from the perspective of "it's n2, what am I gonna say come d3" not "it's d2, what am I gonna say tomorrow"

hmmm
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #90) » Fri May 11, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

wait I remember why I had that perspective - teacher was fishing for info at the start of D3 before giving his night result, and if he's scum that would suggest he hadn't yet decided what the result would be
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Post Post #1043 (isolation #91) » Fri May 11, 2018 8:11 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Except that maybe you do crumb your scum partner to keep NK15 off her, actually?
I'll repeat that I don't necessarily think you do the nightkill as scum, since you called attention to yourself with a claim.

hmmmmmmmm
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #92) » Fri May 11, 2018 8:32 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Well so I think NK15's words are clear that he thought you were town.

I also think you didn't consider how clear he was end of day. This is why you might be paranoid enough to not do the nightkill and miss how bad a fake result No Result is.

Except that if you were paranoid you probably would reread, so maybe the second sentence above is moot.

Except that maybe the reason you are arguing for there being more than one level to his words is because that's how you read it overnight when analyzing his most likely course of action.

I need to think.
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Post Post #1053 (isolation #93) » Fri May 11, 2018 8:51 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Hnggggg I'm so annoyed at a town-teacher, but I'm starting to see it.

I still don't think brass/oxy is plausible.

I don't see a team Flicker isn't on (except for brass/meji, which still sounds too ridiculous to be true. Sorry if I'm wrong on that)

VOTE: Vote:Flicker
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #94) » Fri May 11, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

For the record, I'm still not super townreading teacher, I just think teacher/meji became less likely from my analysis and therefore find flicker on every scumteam I think is likely.

With that, I'm out till weekendpost.
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Post Post #1060 (isolation #95) » Sat May 12, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@teacher a short version:

Flicker avoided the D1 Lynch in a weird way, Flicker makes more sense as a partner for Meji, neither Nauci nor Flicker gave much reasoning for the Thor votes but Nauci was sick and missed the chance to explain while Flicker doesn’t have an explanation, & more
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Post Post #1077 (isolation #96) » Mon May 14, 2018 2:30 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 469, Flicker wrote:(Also, FTR, I thought I was gonna be the first vote on Meji, not the third. I think I started drafting this post after post #452, and y'all haven't let up since.)
@teacher I forgot about this until now, but Flicker expected to start the meji wagon. I'd say that would have been a better form of bussing/towncred, but it diddn't work, so she settled for third vote. Also yes I do still have suspicion toward you, and if you were scum Flicker would most likely be your partner. But I think the same is true for both meji and brass. Therefore, my vote.

Also you know it's not me/Oxy at this point.
Oxy/brass just
doesn't make sense
. Re-read this:
In post 102, DirtyDishSoap wrote:Is...Swearing new for you or something?

I really don't like to pry and I'm saying this in general concern from one fellow human being to another...Maybe you should replace out if your health is in poor condition and focus on yourself rather than an online forum game?
DDS suggests Nauci replace out. Sure,t he suggestion could be a gambit (who would tell their partner to replace out?), or it could be sincere and NAI.
In post 126, DirtyDishSoap wrote:Nauci - I can't get a really good read off of her. Most of her posts I find semi or incoherent and I can't really see what she's seeing. I understand now that she is ill and uses this site as an emotional crutch, but I also don't need a reminder every post that she's ill. Not trying to be insulting or start a pity party, and I probably will get blasted for this, but I can't stand seeing it every post about her personal life with the constant need to swear. Swearing excessively just gives me the vibe that you don't know what you're talking about, or half heartedly trying with no thought/reason.
My 2nd unappealing poster.
But then he insults her. There's no world where two players who know they're the same alignment openly insult each other to the point that
In post 145, Nauci wrote: fuck you DDS don't police my language or tell me what to do with my time because of my health. Call it annoying if you want but fuck off with the "you should focus on your health" or "emotional crutch" patronizing language

My posts have been off the cuff and not up to my usual writing standards but my points have NOT been incoherent. if you can't comprehend a post's meaning because I said fuck, that's your problem
the other player gets very angry, start swearing, and gets the player who suggested replacing out to replace out. This can't be gambit, it'd be breaking the rules. It's crazy to me to think it's sincere between two scum, because they have incentive to like each other personally (not to mention the psychological we're-a-team aspect) and they it escalates needlessly quickly.

I don't think you can honestly tell me those two players were a scumteam. I think it's much more likely they're both town, or not aligned.

At that point, the only PoE reason to vote brass is if you think he's more likely to be my partner or meji's than flicker is. You just said you're "off" me, which I think means you townread me? From there, I sincerely think Flicker/meji is more likely than brass/meji. We can talk next about brassherald/nauci towntells and the likelihood of those two teams.
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Post Post #1080 (isolation #97) » Mon May 14, 2018 3:26 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

As is oxy/teacher and me/teacher, right? Not that anyone thought differently, but it's worth saying if it's true.
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Post Post #1082 (isolation #98) » Mon May 14, 2018 3:33 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

oh my bad, right. Okay well that's helpful.
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Post Post #1084 (isolation #99) » Mon May 14, 2018 3:40 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I mean it could be another way of trying to get a no lynch compromise. But yeah, I've for the most part already given up teacher/meji as a team.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #100) » Mon May 14, 2018 3:47 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Right, same. With an outside possibility of brass/flicker that doesn't change where I place my vote.

pedit: if Flicker follows teacher/meji onto brass (the direction she's currently leaning, I think?) then there's not a majority vote by the end of the day, which I think becomes a no lynch?
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Post Post #1094 (isolation #101) » Mon May 14, 2018 5:54 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Flicker, in you start the post by assuming teacher and I are town. However, you then decide that since Meji is defending you, Meji is town and teacher and I are back on the table. This leads you to narrow it down to me/brass and teacher/brass. In 1035, though, you admit there is scum motivation for Meji to defend you. How does that affect the likelihood of teams?

Also, in 963, you say your list of plausible teams is "in a world where my individual reads are meaningless". What happens when you include individual reads?
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Post Post #1096 (isolation #102) » Mon May 14, 2018 6:04 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Also I'll note that a teacher/meji team is just as capable of quickhammering any player that gets to L-2, regardless of where their votes currently sit.

Still, I continue to find them being a team unlikely, especially as flicker keeps pinging my scumdar.
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Post Post #1103 (isolation #103) » Mon May 14, 2018 7:36 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I mean I think I made it pretty clear that things have soiled for me rgarding Flicker (also sidenote: interesting that by the end of the day if we havn't lost we'll have narrowed down both scum to 1-in-3 sets)

Flicker played pretty townie for most of D1, but things really took a turn when she panicked and unvoted JB. She explained D2 why she didn't vote someone else, but all she ever said about the actual unvote was that JB struck her as genuine and towny. It was a vague way to get towncred imo. Follow this up with D2, where she kept saying she was overwhelmed/confused (397, 410, 414), and then had 469, which at the time I was too distracted to really dislike, but I really dislike it. It doesn't make sense from a town perspective, because why assume scum missed the deadline? For that matter, why is it more likely Thor was scum than the nightkill target (at this point you hadn't said your tracker result, teacher). On the other hand, from a scum perspective, I can think of a few reasons for this post including
-obscuring that Thor was the nightkill target
-knowing scum actually did miss the deadline
-adding confusion
-lynching Thor

In 574 (you have said tracker results at this point), Flicker changes the list to put "Thor was scum's night kill target" at number 1 most likely. That's ISO 36 for her. Then, from ISO 37-40, Flicker spontaneously joins the Thor wagon and hammers without any explanation.

To clarify, she says she thinks Thor was town and then states intent to hammer
without any explanation
.

D3, she has kept everyone on the board at various points. Yes, she felt townie at many points, but her actual
actions
haven't matched her feel.
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Post Post #1107 (isolation #104) » Mon May 14, 2018 2:52 pm

Post by Irrelephant11 »

???

What is this argument? Flicker might defend you so you townread her and never vote her. Flicker might townread you to further the likelihood of your mislynch (which I thought you’d said before?). Flicker might townread you to cement our 3v3 game state and prevent brass’s lynch. You and Flicker have both said “scum would never townread me what do they gain” which makes no sense? As soon as two votes from town are on town scum is gonna hammer regardless of their “reads”.
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Post Post #1114 (isolation #105) » Tue May 15, 2018 3:48 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@MOD:
So we have until Thursday at 10:50 PM EST?

Welcome Quick, let's see if you re-read as fast as your name suggests!

@teacher, at this point I can't see you being scum while Flicker is town. Indeed, if there's definitely a scum among me/oxy/flicker (which will be pretty much confirmed when Quick posts), I'm never unvoting Flicker. While I could see you being scum with Flicker, I could also see you being town while Flicker is scum. Flicker is so scummy to me. I also honestly think going to sleep would be bad for town at this point. Is there any chance of you voting Flicker today?
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Post Post #1120 (isolation #106) » Tue May 15, 2018 5:21 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

re: first question, Oxy and I are voting Flicker. If the other three players post without hammering, then one of us is scum, same as you/meji/quick

At this point, if that's true, quick/meji can't be the team.
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Post Post #1124 (isolation #107) » Tue May 15, 2018 5:46 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 1122, teacher wrote:I think I know what Im likely to do tonight.
The
suspense
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Post Post #1129 (isolation #108) » Tue May 15, 2018 6:20 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

ummm I don't have time for a full rewind, but we're in MYLO. The claims were from Not Known 15 (confirmed jailkeeper, died N2) and teacher (unconfirmed tracker). teacher's two night results were "no movement" from Thor, who was also the jailkeep choice N1 when nobody died, and "no result" N2 (i.e. teacher says NK15 jailkept him).

There's a vote count on the last page... we've talked a lot this game day about the likelihood of teacher actually being the tracker or not, and analyzed all possible scum teams to death.

Currently, I feel pretty confident Flicker is scum, though idk for sure who her partner is. Feel free to ask me about that or anything else.

Oh also, we're
basically
confirmed at this point to have a scum in You/Meji Fan/teacher and a scum in Me/Oxy/Flicker, which is useful info.

pedit: lol apparently Meji Fan has been all game waiting for you to ask just that :lol:
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #109) » Tue May 15, 2018 12:40 pm

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Wowowowow thanks for all the compliments (intentional or otherwise)! I worked very hard to stay townread and was paranoid it would all come crashing down with some circumstantial thing but I’m proud of my first game for sure.

Nauci, brass, and quick you were all v fun partners.

Oxy and teacher I had so much fun going in circles with you d3, sorry about it all.

Sorry I’m advance for how arrogant I come across in scum thread - you all made me feel real good by setting me up on a towny pedestal. It went to my head a little.

Meji (had it right from the start) and Flicker (the only one to say the scumteam) are the real time mvps.

So fun!
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Post Post #1197 (isolation #110) » Tue May 15, 2018 1:34 pm

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Also agree with those who say Flicker shouldn’t really have been the mislynch. Teacher just *refused* to go down without the fight of his life, Oxy was the only one townreading my partner slot, and everyone had someone they wanted dead before meji.

Some highlights from my POV: a townbloc being organized around me, the incidental chance that both PRs targeted Thor, and getting townread by each killed townie in their last words. I would love to play again with any/all of you!
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Post Post #1204 (isolation #111) » Wed May 16, 2018 2:47 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 1202, teacher wrote:Second, I want to give prizes and awards to Elephant. Well deserved. The three town lynch pool day one tweaked me, but nothing else really did. I wanted the Nauci/Brass slot today, but decided I could never sell you on Oxy or Oxy on you (had we lynched, you still would not have been my track tbh).

Fifth, Elephant, speak more about your other place. I have played 1+ other game here and have seen more of the playstyles I dont enjoy as much as I did this game (as commented on in the dead thread). I loved this game because of the effort from most slots. So far I have only seen similar from one player outside this game. Im not at all giving up on the site, but am less hopeful about it than I was earlier in this game.

Sixth, praise also to our Mod. A well-run game, and excellent learning points in the deadthread. Thank you on all fronts.
2) Thanks! :D

5) I actually don't know what you're referring to. This is the only website I play mafia (though I love to also play IRL). I'll gladly play more games with you! I won't be signing up for another mafia game till June for reasons, but I'd be glad to see you on the player list.

6) Yes, great modding mhsmith! Dead thread was a fascinating read.
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