Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over
Forum rules
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Huh, I thought there would be more here to talk about after a full weekend. Well, some questions:
Was this vote serious? If so, what is "personal feelings" in reference to?In post 15, Thor665 wrote:Vote: Nauci
Because I don't feel like allowing him to let personal feelings dictate votes instead of evidence.
Or maybe he's scum.
Win either way.
In post 39, teacher wrote:Greetings all. I am travelling through Sunday so have less time to quote and comment than I would like. Certainly looks like at least some will be active chatters, which is helpful for outing information - something that always helps town. I also like the RVS.
VOTE: nauci
Its an RVS for me, and one I am doubting, because of the silence so far. But there it is anyways. Happy weekend everyone.
Agree with others who have said this vote was weird. Looking forward to hearing more about it and the subsequent "oh no people think this is weird *unvote*" post when you get back tonight. If it was a weird play for information, why let us in on it so fast? Seems like that ruins the point of it.In post 54, teacher wrote:UNVOTE: nauci
Still travelling though tomorrow night USA time so will be brief. My vote was knowing it would be L-2. I figured it would either prompt some mafia to bandwagon or to speak up in defence if he was maf. Neither really happened though James did speak. As for silence, that’s what I meant - not Nauci but others not defending him or creating another wagon.
Look forward to reading tomorrow.
In post 25, TheGoldenParadox wrote:pagetop
TheGoldenParadox, you've posted twice, and on different days, but haven't really talked about the game yet. What do you think of Teacher's weird vote? Or JB and Thor's many words? Or anyone else?In post 48, TheGoldenParadox wrote:In post 26, Nauci wrote:I'm sorry TGP I remember playing with you before but absolutely nothing about your posting style don't hate me
this? I did that for the memesIn post 25, TheGoldenParadox wrote:pagetop
It was a dark and stormy night where you LYNCHED MY F*CKING SCUMPARTNER D1 AND THEN JODAXQ GOT A GUILTY ON ME D2.
pirates vs. ninjas was a very interesting game
What does this mean?In post 53, Meji Fan wrote:James - Nauci has made lots of posts, by the time I posted in post 36 that you replied to Nauci had quite a lot of posts which made N auci very visible, but did not have much to do with the price of tea in China
I'll say that JB and Teacher have both made me feel bad so far, at different times. I also get really nervous about the idea of a scum Thor because he's played so much.
Oh and lets get everyone talking if possible. Flicker, JB, DDS, and Nauci - ummm what do you all think of each other? Any good or bad vibes yet?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
So I have a theory that I want some other eyes on: What if Thor and JB are scum together? Itw ould explain some early weirdness.
In psot 15, Thor votes Nauci. I have already asked if this was serious, and his answer might change how the rest of this theory goes, but not by much.
Then, without a very strong reason (imo), James copies his vote spot:
Then, in my theory world, Thor tells him offscreen "hey, copying me is a bad idea so early on, we're gonna look like a team", so JB unvotes,In post 20, James Brafin wrote:That being said, VOTE: Nauci
Semi-serious. I'm not sure why town cares about there being a scumchat, but if the mod forgot to set it up, it would not surprise me if scum had a comment.
...aaaand goes to the other extreme:In post 22, James Brafin wrote:Oh, kk. Still suspect, but it's a valid albi.
Unvote
That being said, Thor, I think the answer to your question in #16 is "Who is scum." Also not a fan of post 15, I'll explain in a bit.It would also explain why the two of them have been arguing over what feels like a lot of nothing - or at least, it's mostly goign over my head, these arguments about how the game works and how an IC works.
In 31, JB accuses Thor of "shading" him for what was pretty clearly a joke. And in 35, Thor asks "Also, how would me "shading" this game theory help me win as scum/hurt town exactly?" which from what I can tell (if I'm reading these posts right - yikes), JB doesn't respond to?
tl;dr It just kinda feels like they're disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing, not because either one thinks the other could be scum.
Obviously, odds are I'm wrong. But man, wouldn't it be fun if I called it day 1 my first game? Any thoughts?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
@Thor, all I'm finding is #35's "You don't understand the context of my response, that Nauci didn't react suggests she does."
Oh, and #59's "To answer your question - do a search for Nauci and I in a game, my comments are very valid in that context. I'm not allowed to say any more."
I guess I just don't understand. Are you referencing Nauci's use of personal feelings in other games as a serious reason to vote her now? Or because of something you quoted in 15?
Pre-edit: this is in response to 71. More responses to come later, I have to be AFK for a bit- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
In response to 77, yes, your words make more sense to me now, thank you. The only thing that doesn't make sense to me is a "serious" vote on someone for out-of-game reasons. Or maybe I'm still misunderstanding you? I'm hearing you say that you ARE voting Nauci for reasons you can't discuss because they can't be found in this game, and that your vote is serious. Am I missing a puzzle piece, or is this just a bad vote? I would think that votes should only be placed for in-game reasons, aside from the RVS.
In response to 73, I do appreciate the summary. Besides the literal difficulty of reading things, though, I was mostly just having trouble parsing how much you were arguing about pedantics vs. the way the game works vs. actual alignment-related things. Especially since I have no clue what a game is like w/ vs. w/o scum daytalk. I was never really reading scum motivation into your stances, though - it was more that this argument seemed fruitless, apart from maybe distancing the two of you if you were both scum. idk, I thought I'd throw it out there as a thing I saw .Based on your summary (and a re-read)), I suppose it's mostly JB I have a problem with. His arguments are hard to read because, as you point out, they're contradictory.
At the end there, I think you misunderstand me. I'm not saying JB was joking. I'm saying he accuses you of shading him when all you actually said was "Cool, I look forward to the detailed and full analysis requiring the pause to collect your thoughts " which I thought was a joke.
At JB: that wasn't my first post? Also, I was just pointing out something that could be useful in reading you both, but which would only make sense if it was both of you. I'm definitely not certain, like I said, it's a theory, and one I'm already leaning against. Six of you are town, and two are mafia, so odds are pretty low that I could find both in one guess. Iamstill parsing what your argument with Thor means, as it gave me bad feelings.
I feel like some players are quicker to vote than others. I'm used to playing mafia IRL, where voting happens all at once, rather than as the game goes. IC, is there a normal for voting here? Like, should I always be voting the person I most thinkis mafia? Or only when I'm sure?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Soooo "I lied again" is really not a great start for a defense? Especially since Thor said in his first IC post that lying is strongly discouraged for town players. Feels like maybe you feel caught. I'm also not clear on what your other point is here. . Areyou saying that if you were mafia, someone would have come to your defense by now? Another explanation could be you're mafia, told your partner "don't defend me", and then tried to use that as your alibi.In post 84, teacher wrote:I lied again (not a great thing to do as town, I know). I will make one more post defending myself. It's short: You will note at least 5 players have questioned me (Irrelephant 64; James 50; Flickr 45, 57, 81; Nauci 44, 65; Meji 40). Nobody else has defended. I personally would find that comforting if it were a different player. But you make of it what you will.... Im going to be offline for a few hours. Please dont wagon me before I can respond to anything more if needed.FoS Teacher
Sorry, I really don't know what you're saying here? The typo is making the sentence structure unclear.In post 95, Meji Fan wrote:Elephant - I may be the kg ew Cedrick, but even I cant derive much meaning from the two posts he left. People replace out, it happens.
lol I guess I'll take the compliment?In post 97, Nauci wrote:Updated reads
-Can't really read Irrelephant tbh. Too polite. I don't do well with that kinda nice. Freaks me out.
-Shit lookin' worse for Meji but that's from just 1 post so who the fuck knows
What about Meji's post makes them look worse?
Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.In post 102, DirtyDishSoap wrote: I'll be sure to update sometime today/tonight when I get the chance.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
(emphasis mine)In post 76, Flicker wrote:Just a quick reply for now while I chew over everything new:
Irrelephant - I doubt that Thor/James is the scumteam. I agree that James' behavior leans scummy, but Thor's rigorous replies draw too much attention to that, whereas a scum!Thor would, I think (based on Newbie 1856 where he was scum with DirtyDishSoap), more subtly shade James while giving him less attention.My inclination is to say James vs. Thor is either scum vs. town or town vs. town, because if Thor is scum I feel like it would make more sense to push James' mislynch rather than keeping his vote on Nauci.
On the other hand, I agree with Nauci that scum IC is scary. :/
How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?
In post 85, James Brafin wrote:And I'm going to unvote because really, there is no reason for my vote to be where it is right now.
UNVOTE:
Not comfortable enough to put it somewhere else though.
I'm reading Nauci as town-lean Elephant and Thor as scum-lean, and all else as null atm,
This makes me feel even more weird about JB vs. Thor. Lik eI want Thor to be town because town IC is easier to swallow but this weird vote dance is making me really uncomfortable. I feel like at least 1 of these 2 is likely mafia. Also I kind of feel like JB is just "suspecting" whoever says they suspect him? Which maybe a townie player would do that too but it if it's coming from town, it's not really playing to win (statistically, at least).In post 90, James Brafin wrote:So you ARE misrepping.
C) NO! Just because something "changes the game" doesn't mean we should care as town. Aesthetic "changes the game" but does town care? No. The same is true of multiball (only scum cares then), and I'd argue the same is true of daychat.
Now totally confident this is scum.
VOTE: Thor
Hm. It seems like ya'll place votes on scummy players for more information and responses, even if you're not 100% sure who's mafia?
VOTE: James Brafin
Also, JB,Spoiler:- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
What? No, not random chance. I've narrowed down who I think is suspicious. Obviously I'm not certain which is mafia, so I'm asking DDS (and anyone else who is reading this, especially TGP who should talk more) to give their input on if they think I'm right, if so which one is mafia, etc. etc.
Also I'm not trying to connect you to JB, necessarily. Ijust feel like your argument is weird, feels like it includes a scum, and could possibly include two (in a let's-fake-everyone-out-by-arguing strategy way).- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Agree with who?In post 110, Thor665 wrote:I also agree that you kind of awkwardly connect me to JB for reasons I still don't grok.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
I... well. Actually, good point. I've had some iffy feelings about you, but mostly that's from looking at your posts through theoetically-scum glasses. I think I've been internalizing the what-if-scum-IC paranoia too much. If James gets lynched and shows up mafia, I might be back to suspecting you (who knows, there's lots of time left), but I don't actually have much of a read on you alone yet/In post 115, Thor665 wrote:How am I scummy if JB isn't my partner?
I have seen no evidence of that thought coming from you, did I miss it?
Also a good point for you, Thor. Flicker is coming across to me as fairly logical and like she's actually examining things for alignment - feeling ood about her.In post 120, Flicker wrote:Irrelephant:
It doesn't, really - in fact, it seems like bad scum play for him to move his vote to James after I pointed how doing so could be scummy.In post 106, Irrelephant11 wrote: How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?
Meji's case on Nauci in 122 isn't making much sense to me, especially because, correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like youapproveof most of what Nauci has posted since page two? So what's to suspect?
Also, come to think of it, hey Nauci?
Trying not to sound too all over the place, but making a note for myself and others for later to watch for a potential relationship between Nauci and Meji Fan. Sometimes relationships give mafia away all at once, jsIn post 104, Irrelephant11 wrote:
What about Meji's post makes them look worse?In post 97, Nauci wrote:-Shit lookin' worse for Meji but that's from just 1 post so who the fuck knows- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
@DDS, I like your 126, for the most part. Could you share a Thor read, too?In post 104, Irrelephant11 wrote:
Great! when you do, can you make sure to comment on Teacher, JB, and Thor? Pretty sure among te three of them there is at least one Mafioso.In post 102, DirtyDishSoap wrote: I'll be sure to update sometime today/tonight when I get the chance.
Also,
I wondered this as well.In post 130, DirtyDishSoap wrote:Why not ask this question for Elephant as well if this strikes you odd?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Not sure how you're null on JBIn post 134, teacher wrote:My gut. If want reasoning, ask.
DDS -> slight town.
Irrelephant -> nullish town.
JB -> null.
Flicer -> slight town.
Nauci -> nullish scum.
Meji -> slight town
TGP -> slight scum
Thor -> null.andThor? Like they had a big long conversation with a lot of potential alignment moments. If your reads are all "slight" anyawy, seems like you ought to have something on one of them by now?
Not loving how you're still in continual excuse-mode, either.
I'll hopefully be back once more today, if not see y'all tomorrow- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wow do this many replacements normally happen in newbie games? Sorta discouraging. Hopefully after the first day the player list will soplidify...
Hi Oxy! Welcome. I'll engage with your read. Interesting that DDS's only town read, really, was Flicker, and now she's your only scum read. If anyone knows how aligment-indicative that is, please let me know. I can't decide what iti would mean.
Looking through her ISO, my good feelings on Flicker mostly hold up. Then again, she and I have had pretty similar reads (and she's said nice things for/about me), which could mean I'm getting manipulated by scum.
Also, are walls just long posts? What constitutes a wall? If it is long posts, since we don't have many pages of posts, why not just read the long posts as if they're multiple posts? You can just pretend everyone's double posting and we have 14 pages for you to read- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Also wow we're closer to day end than day beginning and things feel... stalled.
Meji, Your ISO is
"Nauci is bad,
Teacher why are you voting Nauci,
James, Nauci is bad,
Nauci is bad, not sure about Elephant,
Nauc, you're bad,
Thor, Nauci is bad,
Nauci and Teacher are bad, JB is good,
Thor, I answered your question about Nauci."
Can you make a post about some reads without mentioning Nauci? What do you think about me, or Flicker, or Thor, or you know, anyone other than Nauci?
Then, after you've made that post, can you separately clarify for me: is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?
pedit: Will do later, gotta be afk.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Hm, so quoting things I like from Flicker might be hard, 'cause some of her posts are long and have complicated shapes. I'm just gonna link and point things out.
57 and 81 show real hunting to me, trying to parse out various players' alignments and not misrepresenting anyone's words to push for a bad lynch.
76 is a good explanation, and helped me see Thor/JB more clearly. Not something I expect from scum who doesn't care mabout my theory if it doesn't affect them?
Mmmmm and then there's a lot of stuff that, without knowing other players' alignments, is hard to nail down. Still, her casual tone, her consistent working out of analyses (as opposed to useless words), etc. make me feel good. I think most of it actually has to do with just not seeing th e scumminess of the things you pointed to? More to come on that in a few.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
@Oxy,
Spoiler:
in response to that:
A) Ignoring the "partly as a policy lynch", since it's obvious (to me atleast) that that wasn't really the main reason for her vote - it was JB's high confidence that he'd found scum so early, which I also thought was bad.
B)As someone with scum reads on both Teacher and JB, I totally understand doing her best to vote whichever one it seems like town is voting for. Like, enough townies do have to agree at some point, so this doesn't seem to say much for her either way
C) Said in 120 (the same post) that "Now more people vote for James?" was a joke.
D) I feel like I read somewhere on the wiki that copying your towniest read's vote (that's what sheeping is, yes?) is sometimes good strategy? Because if you can get a majority group who are definitely town voting together, the odds of hitting town are much lower than random. Idk, since she didn't actually sheep I don't see your problem with it. What would be the scum motivation for staying on Teacher, or for mentioning-but-then-not sheeping Nauci?
E) "Very last post called Nauci null and opined about the possibility of a Nauci scum team." huh? not seeing this. Or knowing what it means. In fact if anything it seems Flicker has been kind of weirdly consistently confident that Nauci is town all game. What are you saying here?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
What's missing between the premises and conclusion? Town-like actions --> Townish read, no? Put another way, what about my list points toward "AvgNewbie's scum" rather than town?In post 191, Oxy wrote:Thanks for this. I'm in agreement on your premises, but not on your conclusion so much. I think this is all probably in AvgNewbie's scum range.
I just wrote a whole bunch. Moving it into a nother post- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
To respond to Teacher, even though he never really asked me a question ("I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them" is passive aggressive af like hello I'm in the room):
I've already said I like Flicker, and liked DDS (unclear on Oxy, but aside from his read on Flicker there's nothing I dislike there yet). Both of them for providing helpful analysis on other players, actively looking for scum, etc.
Apparently we're all just gonna collectively have a null on Thor, so (my reason: saw him as scummy, then took a step back and saw there wasn't as much there. Experienced player is experienced) Nauci is nuller than scummy, too - her tone has been scum read by some, but being slightly abrasive hs not stopped her from providing reads, analysis, questions, etc. to a similar extent as Thor.
I feel bad about JB and you, for reasons already listed but I might re-analyze and re-summarize later.
I didn't like TGP and don't like Meji for their lack of content overall, but neither one is guaranteed scum for being quiet. waiting for more from both slots before deciding if there's actually anything scummy there. For lack of information, null.
If I had to push some players out of the null zone, I'd probably say Not Known 15 and Nauci feel more to me like town than Thor and Meji. I reserve the right to change my mind on this later though.
Even if I haven't used the word "read", I've definitely implied how I feel about more than four players, so saying that I've only really discussed four players annoys me. I'm also not clear on why saying "I don't have a read on _______" is better than not saying it in the first place. Some players haven't said much, so my read on them has mainly been "answer my question pelase."- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
"Irrelephant, please share your reads on ___, ___, ___" comes across better to me than "I hope those people I mentioned will provide reads". If it says anything about your alignment, it's that you've set yourself up to follow up or not follow up on us later, at your convenience - a scummy move that cares more about looking like you want information than the information iself.In post 208, teacher wrote:
ummm...it was a question? It called you (and Thor, and Meji) out by name? Just missing what is aggravating. Sorry for it, but dont know what not to do next time.In post 205, Irrelephant11 wrote:even though he never really asked me a question ("I hope those in the first paragraph will provide some broader reads and explain them" is passive aggressive af like hello I'm in the room):"
But I'm willing to admit this one is probably just my personal communication preference.
I guess I remembered "I like your 126" as "I like your 126, feels towny" (which is practically the same anyway).
There's more I could talk about here, but I've got questions waiting for answers so I'm gonna peace out for a bit and hope some other players show up.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wow okay so a lot happened and I'm not sure I have time to address a lot of things that I'm curious about before day ends, but here are some thoughts that come to me first:
-James Brafin says he's unafraid of L-1, but feels like he is flailing more and more as people suspect and/or vote him. I think he has scum-cased three different players with "complete confidence" and, each time it's clear someone won't get votes, moves on to another player. His arguments are often based on misunderstandings (intentional ones, imo) and he has not claimed a power role. This lynch makes sense to me, and I'm almost definitely keeping my vote here.
At the same time,
WTF Teacher?? I had made it so clear that you are my next highest scumread, and now you're trying to form a town block around me, as long as it's not on you? Is this a last-ditch effort to move a bunch of votes off your scum partner James? Is this an attempt to absolve yourself of responsibility when JB flips town? Is this so insane it can't come from scum? Idk what to do with this (even if I like the other two players you're adding to the block). You also keep referencing how most of the board town-reads me, which I'm not totally sure is true? Without doing a search for every player's most recent reads, I can name Thor and Meji as two players who null read me, at best. I dunno, this is just so ocnfusing coming from you.
Meji. Talk more, or get lynched. You "want Nauci lynched" but have made little effort to push that. You "want JB alive" but have made little effort to save him. Post 271 ("I've been trying to encourage people toward who I want them to vote for") is straight up false. Paranoid that this quiet scum is letting us lynch one of our own, and getting towncred after he shoes up town. If I were to switch, this would be the one.
I feel a little better about Thor and NK15, and a little worse about Nauci. Other reads stay the same.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Oh, weird, not used to twilight being a thing.
Scum JB makes me suspicious of everyone who expressed hesitance at one point or another: Flicker, Nauci, Meji, Teacher, not sure about the order
I'm suspicious of Meji either way, honestly. Agreed that town JB makes Mejimoresuspicious, though, for reasons already given.
Town JB also makes me think there's probably at least one scum voting for him, except in the specific case that scum is both Meji and Nauci.
Gonna need to really re-explore Teacher. So confused about him end of day.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
noted. Please provide reads and reasons on everyone you have a read on (should probably be everyone at this point).In post 365, Meji Fan wrote:For those thinking Meji is scum because James was town, note I leaned James was town back in post 152 which was before James hot really popular
Also,
I am tentatively going to start today by assuming a town Teacher. I'll continue to evaluate, but I realized that part of my scum read on him was "he keeps doing things to look towny" which, who knows, could be because he's towny. Still lots I don't like from yesterday, but we'll come back to that.In post 173, Irrelephant11 wrote:Then, after you've made that post, can you separately clarify for me: is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?
I don't even know what to do about claiming or not claiming. Is IC bound to be honest about this? Or would it be too influenced by his alignment?
Also does mafia have the option skip a nightkill? The sample role PMs make it seem like they have to kill, which is also my experience with mafia IRL
Seems like scum hunting will end up being heavily influenced by whether or not we start claiming roles...
pedit: I've tried to post this likethreefive times and been interrupted by new posts, which I read, then try to post, etc...
pedit2: that escalated quickly.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Your last sentence makes sense. But "clearing NK15" isn't totally possible, is it? Like, we could be inIn post 403, Oxy wrote:No! there is no need to check any theories. We have a Claim. Now we get cc's. Full stop.
We can argue about whether or not to do a mass claim later, but people need to cc this now, or we are clearing NK15.
There is no other play. It is ALWAYS good for town to trade 1 pr for the scum that cc's.C1nope reread it, umm... C3? Yeah, could we be in C3 without a counterclaim and have NK15 still be scum?
Also, I want to follow my town read on Oxy, but can someone verify that this is a good idea? I feel out of my depth.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
A few thoughts, while we're still trying to figure this out.
After stewing on this, it wouldn't actually be that much luck? Scum knows which column we're in, so if they have no power roles then, based on last night, they know it's c2 or c3. If neither was jailkept, then they can guess it's a more than 50% chance it's c3. Risky, but the odds are technically in their favor.In post 418, Oxy wrote:correct, c3 is the one setup where it doesn't clear. scum would have to be very lucky to hit this exactly.
I'm finding a couple problems. In A, NK15 could have kept town. Killing the target could be a mislynch, leading to NK15's night kill, and we're down to 0-1 PRs and no useful information from NK15. Also it'd be 3:2 if that's the case. In B, I don't think PMs are allowed.In post 421, teacher wrote:MY earlier general theory does not work because of C2 and A2 combined, as best I can tell. Or it gets too unwieldy for me to play out well.
So what to do about the fact that we have a claim that --if true-- would put us in Row 2 of the setup? Should we counter it or not? I think yes, in the way Oxy suggests. What does the board think of the below?
Oxy's Suggestion
Countering the extant claim at the first level reveals a (cop, neopolitan, jailkeeper). If there is a counter, there are 2 suspects. They reveal actions for info. Lynch among them for a lock scum ID by day 3 at worst (mislynch), PLUS the info from the true PR. At worst, after night 3, it is 3:1, with hopefully usable info.
But if no counterclaim from those powers, NK's claim could still be falsified if there is a tracker AND a doctor - C3 as oxy identifies in 418. But its not as unlikely as he claims. At this stage, it is exactly a 25% chance. So how to address this: presumably a mass "pr no pr claim" without identifying role, as this would (a) validate NK's claim in full if 0-1 pr claims; (b) create a 3 suspect pool if 2pr claims; (c) create a 4 suspect pool INCLUDING BOTH MAFIA if 3pr claims. Option c is guaranteed lock town, so cannot happen. Playing out options A-B further:- No PR claim (option A): NK is lock town, and kept mafia (no night kill assumption). He reveals action. Board kills target. D3 begins at 5:1. Good.
- One PR claim: NK is now lock town. The other claimaint is probably real too (A2, B2), but could still be false because of C2. NK leads townblock that other claimant MUST follow for all days. Have alternative PR say reveal role and action.
- IF claimed doctor and NK dies N2, claimant scum. Again D4 begins 3:1.
- If claimant tracker, NK will die N2. Must assess reasonability of tracker's N1 and n2 actions.
- Two PR claim: clear three suspect pool. Select board-cleared person (Elephant?) to receive PMs from two claimaints identifying roles. A contradiction narrows it to two suspects. If they claim consistent with C3, then there remain three suspects. Doctor reveals. Mafia must kill him, so lynch among remaining two. If mislynch, D3 lynch is guaranteed scum (doctor if doctor survives night; 3d claimant if doctor dies). Worst case-D4 starts 3:1 with info.
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Okay, based on the IC post, claiming/not claiming should wait a few RL days. That makes sense. We have no need to rush, and rushing has already outed a lot of information that might be more helpful to scum than town.
I mean, yeah, make cases on scummy players. I'm not sure why I have to tell you to?In post 452, teacher wrote:By the way, elephant -- baaaa. IF you want me to case my preferred list, I can.
In terms of who I'm voting for, I'm focsuing on Meji/Nauci/Flicker, with other bad feelings between you and Thor that are currently slightly lower priority.
I want more from meji, including an answer to my question about Nauci, to get more information about both of them.
Acutally, VOTE: Meji Fan. If this is the only way to get you to talk, so be it.
Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wow, okay, this game day is moving much faster than the last. Catching up...
I don't cc anything.
Assuming Teacher is telling the truth (could still be c2), Thor would make sense as mafia. Wondering if anyone else sees the possibility of a Teacher lie here, though? His "game breaking" at the start of D2 was interesting but not neccessarily ever quite helpful, and speaking of odds, what are the odds both town PRs and the scum kill hit one player?
I know I said I'd start today assuming a town Teacher, but mislynching the IC would probably be worth a fake claim if Teacher's scum...
@Thor, what do you think of this possibility?
Gonna go ISO Thor.
@MEJIIn post 173, Irrelephant11 wrote:is your scum read on Nauci based solely on the number of Nauci posts in the first two pages that don't have much helpful content? Does that usually help you find scum?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?In post 439, Thor665 wrote:I'm also thinking either teacher is scum or one of my town reads is wrong.
Let's dance with the lawyer.
VOTE: Teacher- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wow Thor ISO remains incredibly hard to read. There's a lot of questions there, and he comes across as very casual D1. Mayyybe those things mean scum, since he never pushed hard for any particular lynch? Also last game day his second favorite lynch seemed to be Meji and today he dropped that. I'm curious why, Thor, since your analysis of votes was one scum on the wagon and one scum off? Why focus so heavy on the three not-NK15 players on the wagon instead of the three players off the wagon?
I mean, some possibilities include saving Meji as tomorrow's easy mislynch, saving Meji his scum partner that he wasn't sure I'd vote (but had to follow me because he said he would) (note: this is the one you listed, so youIn post 542, Thor665 wrote:
What was his scum advantage to claim at that stage?In post 534, Irrelephant11 wrote:Can you tell me why, from your perspective, your top scumread telling the truth is more likely than one of your townreads being scum?
If this was Day 3 I'd agree with you, but Day 2 is a lot riskier for him if he's scum.
I also don't see my play being a massive danger to him since he already had a big wagon going on Meji (that he was driving) so unless the argument is he's Meji's partner and really didn't expect his bus to work really well and had to hard abort via a fakeclaim - I don't see a clear scum logic for his play.
With lack of scum logic - I presume town claim, thus guardedly confirmed town.
What do you see as the scum logic I should follow for him?cansee scum logic there), trying this move that he wanted to save till D3 on D2 so it doesn't look suspicious on D3...
Oh, or maybe he just wanted to claim a power role to avoid the lynch forever?
Overall, I am mostly confused on why you're voting Oxy when Teacher cannot prove he is telling the truth, has over-exaggerated the numbers to push a town lynch (from your POV), up until this claim (that came from your scumeread) you were townreading Oxy, and there's at least one playeroffthe JB wagon who you've said you find very suspicious.
idk who I find scummy out of Teacher/Thor, if either, but Thor's trust of Teacher is odd.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Yes. Do you currently think there are two scum on the wagon?In post 560, Thor665 wrote:Because game statistics suggest a high prevalence for scum on the wagon to be 1 or more.
It is more likely that 2 scum are on the wagon then both scum are off.
Therefore it is more likely that scum are on the wagon in some array, and if I have slots I can rule out...
Make sense?
Why isn't it likely that Teacher made a bad play? He himself admits he's played poorly today.In post 560, Thor665 wrote: Most of those are really bad plays and thin grasps at straws - you see that, right? Or would you like me to explain how unlikely they are specifically?
To the last sentence: yesIn post 560, Thor665 wrote:As I already said (and we're even discussing currently) the odds of that being a fake claim are...meh, kinda slim.
He was in no danger.
He was reversing his push.
Literally the only issue I have with teacher currently is terrible logic (which he hasn't been around to pursue) and I'll be curious to understand why he had all this info on me during the period where he knew I was jailed up until the point he voted me (but he hasn't been around to engage)
In the mean time presuming him as scum and pressing Oxy seems brilliant to me.
Do you see any reason to hard town read Oxy?
Do you think Oxy's play with me has looked like town play?
To the second to last: unsure
To the third to last: Does this mean youdothink Teacher is scum, and you're just pressing Oxy in the meantime?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?
derpy and scum was my D1 read on Teacher, but I guess if you don't see it you don't see it
I mean in 525 you said you're "willing to believe Teacher's claim." That means that, whether you consider him confrmed or not, you consider him town. That's a different level than saying you "don't see much value in lynching him today."
Re:Oxy, I am experiencing now what he was trying to avoid - lots of talk coming from you that seems to cloud things up rather than make them clear. You seem to be asking questions for questions' sake, rather than for their answers.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
I mean, I'll also note that you being jailed means you're either target or scum. If it's not scum, then you're semi-confirmed town. If you're town, scum has incentive now to want you dead.In post 564, Thor665 wrote:They would have to be living in utter terror of me to try to kill me at night *and* try a fakeclaim gambit to get me lynched- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Flicker, a question:
(Flicker quote sabout what happened last night:)
Spoiler:
Thor is IC, and so makes sense as a nightkill. Teacher brought forward information that Thor makes sense as scum. The only two "lurkers" have been Meji Fan and Nauci, and Meji Fan has clearly been around (just not posting enough). Is this still the order of likely scenarios in your mind?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
I'm about to head out for the weekend, and will likely only get my usual single post in. In the meantime I agree that Meji is still priority 1, but think more pressure needs to go on Thor, Flicker, and Nauci.
@NauciIn post 459, Irrelephant11 wrote:Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
To start, 586 (Teacher's Thor is scum post) is fairly convincing. There's definitely some stuff there that I see coming from scum more likely than town. However,
Spoiler:
Are we sure we're not lynching this?
Meji has ignored my question about the reasoning behind their scum read on Nauci three times now. Meji is now saying "Oh you think it's Thor? Great, well that points to Nauci lol." I feel like we're all gonna be kicking ourselves if we let a Meji/Nauci team watch us lynch each other to death while laughing behind the sceens about Meji only ever saying "guys lynch Nauci".
Is it a hard tunnel? No one has ever taken it seriously. I agree that Meji/Thor makes sense as a team, especially given Thor's reluctance to inspect Meji Fan in the slightest this game day. However, I see Meji/Nauci easily, since we're all ignoring the content of Meji's posts - also, no town person should ever be playing to get ignored! Meji is playing a game of "as long as I'm the second-scummiest at all times, I'll live." Idk if partner is more likely Nauci or Thor (and I'll agree with Oxy that Flicker isn't totally off the table... Flicker is looking worse this game day for SURE), but ignoring the statistics case Meji is clearly the scummiest player.In post 609, teacher wrote:Thats the middle of my case, and why I want to lynch Thor more than Meji. I cant figure out who Meji could be partnered with if not Thor. The only other possibility given voting patterns is Nauci. But thats a hard hard stretch for me, given the early and hard tunnel.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
You should vote off the wagon because that's where the scummy players are (including according to pre-Teacher-claim Thor)? Which was always my point that has always made sense, thank you very much.In post 601, Thor665 wrote:
I would argue that they do - how are you thinking they do not?In post 566, Irrelephant11 wrote:If you lean no, why ignore your biggest remaining D1 scumread to focus on a player you didn't seem to see as scummy until Teacher claimed?
Put another way, your vote analysis seems to inform your reads. Why do your reads not seem to inform your vote analysis?
If I don't think both scum are assured on the wagon, but I do think it's more likely that one or both was on rather than off - why should I vote off the wagon exactly considering the claims?
Flicker, now that I'm here, should I be reading 596 as your intent to hammer Thor?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
No,Iknowyou've been saying scum are more likely to be on the wagon than off. The problem I have with that is it doesn't line up with your general scum reads. At the point at which your on-wagon scumreads claimed power roles, I'd expect you to adjust your vote analysis. Instead, you've started scum reading previous town reads. A new question from mfor you - why does your vote analysis matter more to you than who you said is playing scummy D1/at day start?
Also, come to think of it, why are you so sure about where scum voted? At first, I assumed it had to do with some mix of randomness statistics and the perceived alignments of the particular players who did/didn't vote for JB. But now you're showing that you're so confident in your voting logic that it makes you scum read previous town reads when process of elimination tells you to. What gives you this confidence, even as circumstances surrounding players' aligments change?- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wow if you're being obstinate scum then I am really getting too caught up. If you're town it's really frustrating how much I have to try to communicate this single idea to you.
Let me try to illustrate what I'm saying:
A B C D E voted out town
F G H voted other players.
You're A, and think B, C, and F are scummy. Therefore, you think and say, more scum were on the wagon than off.
Then, you become convinced B and C are town PRs. YouignoreF, and start trying to decide which of D and/or E are scum.
This no longer fits random chance, since from your POV there are more scum prospects off the wagon than on (3:2, if you choose to ignore all PR claimants). This no longer fits any read you've expresed previously. It ignores F, who you've said is scummy.
Yes, you've said in advance that if you're wrong about B and/or C, yo'ud reevaluate. But you're not reevaluating the statement "more scum were likely to be on the wagon than off", which imo would be the logical thing to do. Instead, you're reevaluating which of the players on the wagon are scum.
You never answered my question about why you are so confident in your vote analysis. You seem unrealistically confident aboutwherescum voted, even if that takes you to a place where you have to flip your reads: this doesn't make sense to me if reads are the reason for your vote analysis. You've changed your reads to fit the vote analysis that's based on out-of-date reads.
Are you at all catching where the cognitive dissonance is for me? I'm only finding logic for you to scum read Oxy out of nowhere if you are scum trying to ignore your lurker partner.
pedit: welp sorry that we're all asking basically the same thing here, but since I wrote this all out I'm not deleting it, so there.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?
Also, I wanted to read your case on Oxy quick, and this is all I found.
Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?In post 614, Thor665 wrote:Oxy says he thinks I'm scum - go back and read a few of my questions to him that he hasn't answered.
Then note that, for some reason, you're wagoning me.
Meh.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
1. Okay. I now understand you, even though I disagree with you.In post 651, Thor665 wrote:
I wouldn't pu tit to that level o fpsychotic even though multiple people now appear to think I am, so maybe I'm explaining myself overly intensely - but, yes.In post 644, Irrelephant11 wrote:I think this might clarify things completely for me: Is it the case that you just always assume a town lynch on D1 means there is a scum on the wagon, and that regardless of other information this is such a helpful general assumption that you shuold follow it to your grave?
Oxy is scummy for empty cheerleading a lynch and also trying to hang to the rear of every issue.In post 644, Irrelephant11 wrote:Even assuming you just really really have to vote between Oxy and me - which is the ssumption we're all questioning - what makes you think Oxy is scummy?
2. Tell me more. With intent to hammer stated, you have nothing to lose as town by sharing more about your current scummiest read.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
A couple examples would be nice.In post 654, Thor665 wrote:1. Cool
2. What sort of "more" would you like? I prefer succinct cases because I think long ones lead to including dumb theories and paranoia. I can provide examples of him doing what I'm saying he's doing, if that excites you, but unless my case is confusing you as to what I'm saying I don't see a real need/value to using more words to say the same thing.
@NK15, Flicker has stated intent, and I'd rather not give her the opportunity to back out of it later or take false credit next game day (e.g. "He's town? I was totally gonna take back my intent?" "He's scum? See, intent was there!") At this point I'm playing like it's twilight. I'm asking Thor to say more so we have more to analyze later, and hoping that Nauci gets some reads in because whether she's sick town or lurky scum I want her to talk more before the day ends. I do also feel strongly at this point that Thor is one of our two best lynch options, but I don't see the use in rushing the lynch? Let me know if I'm misssing a good reason to move more quickly- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
I'm not sure I'm of the mind that town ThorIn post 663, teacher wrote:
Am I mistaken, or does Thor AGREES with the associative case on him. Flipping town!thor clears Meji (as its not in the OXY or ME partner pool). Thus, tomorrow town starts with two lock- or likely- towns in the (NK, Meji, me) pool even if it is a mislynch. Even if Im misreading, this is again Thor trying not to get people to vote Meji.....In post 661, Thor665 wrote:If you're town then either I'm very wrong on Elephant (don't feel it) or Teacher is fakeclaiming (possible, scum knew it was safe).
I find it highly unlikely both scum were off the wagon.
For a theory Elephant partner I'd...I dunno, seems daft. Nauci I guess if I was forced to say a name.
For Teacher I'd tend to expect Flicker or Nauci. Meji would be a daft combo.completelyfrees Meji to be town? Like yes Meji/Nauci sounds implausible, but couldn't that be the strategy?
I'm gonna go re-read Meji/____ ISOs.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
How's this? Yesterday I thought mafia were informed they were jailkept, and I was corrected. Is it the case that mafiaIn post 754, Oxy wrote:If you have a red check, scum already knows who the red check is on. That person is probably not going to spew prior to your check.areinformed if they were tracked?
@brassherald, welcome. When you get a chance, I'd love to hear your thoughts on 576 followed by answering this on behalf of your slot:
Agreed that this and other thoughts should wait for teacher.In post 459, Irrelephant11 wrote:Meanwhile, @ Nauci, you say you were sick between 236 and 371. Okay. Please comment on the things you wish you had had a chance to talk about then. Would you/wouldn't you have hammered, if you could have? What do you think about 250 compared to 333? Or 259, where Teacher throws out sheeping me? 271? And at least three other posts of your choice.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
hmmm
If you got no useful result, saying so will make it easier for the scum to townread each other and make this round les sclear. In this case, you should keep it to yourself at first
If you found a scum, saying so will 1v1 you and that player (better for town overall) while allowing the other scum to hide better. In this case, you should definitely tell us who we ought to kill, and waiting too long lowers the effectiveness of this option by making you more suspicious.
If you're scum with a fake result, waiting allows you to gather information and make the call that helps your wincon the most. Also in this case, your request for 4 players to ask for information is a request for everyone but your buddy to intentionally ask, which seems unlikely given meji/flicker activity levels
The only way I see waiting as being pro-town is if you got no result and you want to see scum town read each other, even though in this case you wouldn't know who either of the scum are anyway. So, in the most pro-town situation, it's next to useless.
Probably just say what happened last night?
pedit: well that's that- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
@Oxy I think you likely had it right
but how do you feel about teacher at this point? seemed like you wanted thor dead because of teacher, but post-flip I'm curious your feelingsIn post 448, Oxy wrote:realistically, though. I think the team is simply 2 of {meji, flicker, nauci}.
@meji tell me about the world in which you're town. Who's the scum team? Why?
@teacher why track Flicker?
brassherald and Flicker have promised more, I'll be excited to see it tomorrow. peace out for now
pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Wow okay to start
A is twisting the truth. A false red check from scum you would make a scum win less likely, not more. 1v1 narrows down the options to a 50/50 shot, which is better than our current 33% shot.In post 801, teacher wrote:@Meji/Oxy - Think about it. How likely is it I would make up a story about being jailkept (a "zero result" rather than "stayed home") if I were scum GIVEN BOTH (a) we are in MYLO, so a red check could make scum!me win, and (b) what NK was saying. That said, I think NK's "plan" might suggest his actions. He was trying to sell his trust in me so that scum team would definitely use me to carry out action. And the first time he said it, he said "if . . . I die, follow teacher" -- indicating he thought his JK might stop the kill.
I've been thinking a lot about potential scum teacher, and I think his crumbing makes sense as a mafia who always expected to make a claim, knowing that it's column 3 and there's a 2/3 shot that there's an open PR spot to claim. If he had decided to give us something other than the Flicker miss, he could have just not brought up his D2 crumbing and I know I wouldn't have ever noticed it.
NK15 scum reading teacher isn't completely impossible, though - teacher pushed thor's lynch, and thor's flip moves teacher toward scum possibilities. Except that this is more of a reason to scumread teacher, and less of a reason to expect NK15 would jail him especially given 700 in which NK15 literally says
"If Thor is town... Follow Teacher and their leads"
I'm not ready to vote because scum an quickhammer anyone with two votes but thisFoS on teacheris more like Both Hands of Suspicion
teacher there is a world where you're town but there's not a world where you're town and Oxy is scum in my mind (yes I am suggesting that Oxy's only possible scum partner from my POV is teacher). If anyone wants me voting Oxy make a v strong case.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
Feeling bad about this. As the first person to throw suspicion Oxy's way I was excited to hear your case - I don't think scum makes a case on someone who isn't an easy mislynch, it seems much more likely to come from genuine town- but you're basically backing off the first chance you get. Seems more like you were hoping for someone else to get behind this and are disappointed to realize your mislynch options are being narrowed by townIn post 788, Flicker wrote:
It's mostly his read on me (which, again, helps no one else, and also town players can have wrong reads) and his shift on Thor D2. On D1, he says Thor's being pushed for silly reasons (post #164); on D2, he pushes Thor on (in hindsight) somewhat silly reasons. Also, he accused me of bussing Meji, but could that be a cover for him actually bussing Meji, on both days? And then when it looks like Meji could actually get lynched D2, he jumps off (and back) to Thor?In post 773, Irrelephant11 wrote:pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye
I don't know; it's not a strong read. Honestly, I just don't feel he's town enough to take himoutof the suspect pool.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
He- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6268
- Joined: April 9, 2018
- Pronoun: He
- Location: My dog's eyes
3: lol not sure how I got a "simple question" rep this game, but sure - honestly, I don't ever ever ever see Nauci's swearing pushing DDS out of the game if they're the team. It would have to be a bizarre play where DDS asked for a replacement as a ploy, which I think might be against the rules? Replacing can't be playing to DDS's wincon (can't win a game you're not playing), even if it plays to Nauci's wincon - therefore, against the rules as a a trick, and nearly impossible as anything else.
2: You were pressured into revealing your read before you had planned on it. I'm not totally sold you're scum, but this argument doesn't do much for me.
1: This is also not helping. It's starting to look like you're intentionally leaving out part of NK15's statement - "follow teacherand his reads".
Tell me more about Oxy scum, which is almost completely new coming from you. Also make a case on brass that doesn't include Nauci's pattern of being missing. Rereading Nauci as simply incapable of playing sometimes really sucks a lot of scumminess out of the read for me.- Irrelephant11
-
Irrelephant11 HeJack of All Trades
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11
- Irrelephant11