Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Flicker]

Hey, all!

VOTE: James Brafin, partly as a policy lynch because of his posting style, partly because I don't like anyone who has that much confidence on a read this early.

I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS.

[Flicker]

Hey, all!

VOTE: James Brafin, partly as a policy lynch because of his posting style, partly because I don't like anyone who has that much confidence on a read this early.

I thought about sheeping Nauci's vote on teacher, but decided I don't feel comfortable sheeping anyone just yet. I do agree with her and Meji Fan that his vote is questionable. I also don't see how there's anything to like (or dislike) about RVS.

MAGES
There is so much wrong with this post. A) You don't policy lynch for posting style (I mean, how weak and untownie is that?). B) Why is confidence a bad thing? Scum is not going to be confident in their reads, they are going to waffle a bit. C) If you agree with something someone is doing, why wouldn't you follow them? D) Where is this Meji Fan thing coming from?

A) When the posting style is as visually irritating (and potentially confusing, given your quoting mistakes) as yours initially was, I think it's something to consider. No one else here feels the need to make their text a different color (save the mod, of course), and we can follow the back-and-forth just fine. I already had a bit of a headache when I started reading, which made your text seem extra irritating, but still - I don't think players should have their own text colors, and if a policy lynch on you discouraged that, good.

B) Just because you don't think scum is going to be confident doesn't mean that town should feel confident with little information. Especially since, when you posted your read on Thor665, there were three slots which either hadn't posted or essentially hadn't posted (ImBad14/Irrelephant11, TheGoldenParadox, and CH4M3L30N/me), and it's possible that one or both scum is in this three (I don't know what the exact % is on that, math wasn't my strongest subject). (Also, I know I just FoS'd myself, but what'cha gonna do in pursuit of the truth? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

C) I didn't want to just come in and copy-paste Nauci (or anyone's) vote, especially since I don't have any good reads yet. I also thought pursuing a new vote would be more productive and sheeping would be lazy.

D) The "Meji Fan thing" is me acknowledging that they also thought teacher's vote was off (post #40). Speaking of...

UNVOTE: nauci

Still travelling though tomorrow night USA time so will be brief. My vote was knowing it would be L-2. I figured it would either prompt some mafia to bandwagon or to speak up in defence if he was maf. Neither really happened though James did speak. As for silence, that’s what I meant - not Nauci but others not defending him or creating another wagon.

Look forward to reading tomorrow.

If that was your intention, why not wait for more activity before unvoting? Whether or not you're confident in a vote, I don't think backing off of it so quickly is very helpful.

[Flicker]

EBWOP: Actually, including teacher, there were

four

slots that (basically) hadn't posted when James made his "fairly confident" read/vote on Thor.

[Flicker]

Just a quick reply for now while I chew over everything new:

Irrelephant - I doubt that Thor/James is the scumteam. I agree that James' behavior leans scummy, but Thor's rigorous replies draw too much attention to that, whereas a scum!Thor would, I think (based on Newbie 1856 where he was scum with DirtyDishSoap), more subtly shade James while giving him less attention. My inclination is to say James vs. Thor is either scum vs. town or town vs. town, because if Thor is scum I feel like it would make more sense to push James' mislynch rather than keeping his vote on Nauci.

On the other hand, I agree with Nauci that scum IC is scary. :/

PEdit: Started writing this right after Irrelephant's post #69. Hopefully in my next post I can reply to everything else between my last post and this one.

[Flicker]

4.

Flickr

. Replacement in at 43. Immediately votes James at 45 because of chat mechanics, but indicates uncertainty. Post 45 criticizes me for wagoning, but Post 57 criticizes my unvote (contradictory?). Post 57 notes who was AFK early game, and responds to James's suspicions in post 50.

Bottom Line

: Has been active since arrival, and provides analysis of player's (mostly my) moves. Slight townread.

I wasn't criticizing you for wagoning, I was criticizing your

reasoning

for wagoning. I then criticized your unvote for, again, your (poor) reasoning. I was counting the number of posts more than the time between them, but either way the game had been fairly slow up until that vote, and jumping off the vote that soon rather than waiting longer to see if your "gambit" worked struck me as odd. Your further explanation in post #68 does not make me feel better, as A) more than 24 hours had actually passed, and B) I don't understand why a vote count would mean your vote could no longer produce information.

I also don't like your blow-by-blow analysis of every player (including yourself for some reason?) in post #66. It's a lot more (unnecessary) summary than analysis, and a little hard to read. Maybe even too try-hard, like a scum player thinking "how can I look the most town"?

VOTE: teacher

Nobody seems eager to follow my James vote, so I'm finally confident enough to put my vote here.

Oh and lets get everyone talking if possible. Flicker, JB, DDS, and Nauci - ummm what do you all think of each other? Any good or bad vibes yet?

I agree with Nauci's town reads/leans on you and Thor. I have the slightest town read on DirtyDishSoap, based on differences in play style between this game and Newbie 1856.

I was feeling a conflicted null about Nauci, but something about the in-and-out of the hospital and on powerful meds info, and continuing to play through that, makes me think she's town? If she was mafia it seems like those would be more of an issue.

I think I've made my scummy feelings about James and teacher pretty clear.

Meji Fan and TheGoldenParadox have not posted enough for me to get any read on. Feel free to post more at any time, you two.

PEdit:

Irrelaphant's first post being "Maybe this is the scumteam" pings me. Even I don't do that as town, which I am obviously shit at. I can think of no reason why something like that, and then Elephant's next thought being "But it's probably wrong" comes from town at all.

But maybe that 's just me.

I've been thinking of scum teams already, too. After reading teacher's analysis the first time, I thought it might be you and Nauci. But, my reads changed before I posted again, so it wasn't worth mentioning. It's barely worth mentioning now, except to say that I don't think that having a scum team theory is scummy.

[Flicker]

Great.

Now

more people vote for James? Rude.

Teacher:

1. My first vote concealed my reasons. I tried to pass it off as RVS. The truth is I like short wagons (to -2) because I feel like board reactions are telling. You can see if someone defends, or if someone hops on or off the wagon quickly. Nobody did any of those things in the 24 hours (slight defence as noted, but not significant).

2. My unvote provided some of my real reasons. I didnt think I was getting information (again, nobody on or off quickly, and nobody strong defence). I did not say - but it was one of the reasons - that the vote was hurting the town because it was making me doubt me. Bottom line, I changed because I didnt get the reaction I wanted, but also because I knew I would be low activity and unable to change before a wagon lynched Nauci. My reasoning may well have been poor - I was drunk. But looking at it sober I would likely have done it again. IF I had had more time for analysis at that point, I would have voted TGP rather than simply unvoting, but I fixed that with 66.

Okay, so if I understand you correctly, you think that A) Nobody defended Nauci, which a scum partner would do, so probably Nauci is town, B) nobody changed their vote quickly (either to hop on, which would be a possible scum pushing for mislynch, or hop off, which would be a possible scum partner tell), which yields no info, and C) you didn't want to keep your vote on to prevent a mislynch. This line of reasoning actually seems... fine, if you're town.

Your vote count information explanation also seems... fine, if you're town. As for the player analysis, I agree with Nauci that it's more IIoA than anything (which is what I was trying to get at without knowing the terminology).

Re: post #84 - I don't think the lack of defense for you is necessarily telling, especially because, while a lot of people were suspecting you, not that many actually voted you, so your potential scum partner wouldn't feel that much pressure to help you out.

4.

Flicker

: From slight town read to nullread. Basis 57 notes who was AFK and asks for participation. But then has only provided 2 contributions in a day, one of which (81) largely repeats his

suspicions of me from 45 and 57, only adding a DDS townread (based on what?).

Her, thanks.

A) I also read (and still do) Nauci as town. B) My DDS town read was based on his inactivity in this game vs. his higher activity in Newbie 1856, when he was scum. It seemed like the pressure of being scum motivated him to post, whereas here his lack of posting might be un-pressured town. Now that he's clarified that he's just been busy, I guess I was wrong, which means I fold him in with the other quiet posters as an IDK read.

Finally, C) I may not be posting a lot, but I feel like I'm contributing more productively than you're giving me credit for, and certainly more productively than the other posters I pointed out. I'm not gonna sit in the thread and post constantly, partly because I like to take time to think, partly because I (like all of us) have a life outside this game, and partly because when I got replaced in and posted, I

did

sit around (eagerly) waiting for a reply - and after almost four hours, when the first reply after mine was the vote count, I realized the game was moving slowly, so I adjusted my expectations accordingly.

The game's picked up a bit since then, so maybe I should re-adjust, but I'm not gonna post just to post or casually toss out comments. (For example, my joke at the top could have been a single post after Thor's vote, but I decided to save it because it wouldn't have been very useful.) Frankly, this shading of me feels like grasping at straws to discredit me, and I

really

dislike that.

James:

Why does changing my playstyle entail policy lynching and potentially throwing the game? In fact, why would town care so much about posting style of this form at all? This is a discussion for outside the game, not something to lynch over, and I don't like the fact that you continue to defend it so vehemently. But for your and other's sakes, I'll just underline my comments on others posts from now on.

Thank you - I appreciate the change (even if others have noted continued issues). I don't want to keep talking about this, so this is going to be my last comment, but I foresaw a long game full of the annoyance of reading your posts, and I figured, at worst, town could afford one early mislynch if it meant a better reading experience going forward.

Going to cover a few things here: A) Scum will be confident in a bad read on a few occasions, but only if they are for sure going to get away with a lynch, imo. Why would scum have such extreme confidence in a read that has literally no chance of getting lynched at that point? B) Argument from probability. Just because something is possible doesn't make any of my points less valid.

A) I think scum are more likely to be confident, regardless of circumstance, because they actually are more confident. It doesn't seem like a great idea to express that confidence, but maybe that was a slip. B) Even if your points were ironclad, my issue was that your confidence was suspect, given the silence from so many slots.

You should not be voting just to get others to follow you. Maybe that's not your intention, but it sure is what it reads like.

It's not that I wanted/needed others to follow me, just that - like Nauci said - I felt my vote was better served to double hers up and put more pressure on teacher rather than being the only one on you. Given teacher's posts after that, I feel like it was worth it.

Neither do I in some situations. But the timing of it, the doubt of it, and the lack of hunting before pings me. He went from "Oh, I'm not really doing anything" to "Possible scumteam." It honestly feels like he's trying to set one or both of us up for a fall.

Looking at the ISO, I don't think it was that severe a progression. It's more, "Hey," to, "Here's some thoughts and questions," to, "Oh! What if..."

Irrelephant:

My inclination is to say James vs. Thor is either scum vs. town or town vs. town, because if Thor is scum I feel like it would make more sense to push James' mislynch rather than keeping his vote on Nauci.

How does Thor's new vote for JB change this perspective?

It doesn't, really - in fact, it seems like bad scum play for him to move his vote to James after I pointed how doing so could be scummy.

Everybody else:

I'll move back to voting James if that's the consensus lynch we can get, but for now I'd like to get teacher today and see what tomorrow brings. Unless something drastically changes, I'd rather not move my vote otherwise. In particular, I thought about sheeping Nauci and voting TGP, but teacher's also on TGP and I don't want to be on a wagon with my current strongest scum read.

[Flicker]

-hella sussing TGP for 98. feels like pocketing me plus misusing my point about ic stuff to FOS Thor with made up grounds

Potentially dumb newbie question: What does pocketing mean? I can't find it in the MS Wiki or through Google.

Flicker - I like his rebuttals and dig his posts. I get a good town vibe from him based off his interactions and I think his reads on other players make sense mostly. Only disagreement I have is labeling Teacher as TTTBT.

*Her, thanks.

I didn't say he's TTTBT (assuming this means "too town to be town"). I said he seems like scum (unsuccessfully) trying to look town. Although, honestly, I don't know what would qualify as TTTBT. "You're helping town too much, you must be scum" seems like bad logic. Unless I just don't know what TTTBT means, either.

DDS - Dirt Bag.

I like this post - a lot of your reactions are similar to mine, especially to teacher's "lying" (the first time I read that, I freaked out, too). Overall, putting you back in my town-lean pile.

PEdit: That's a lot of scum and not nearly enough town, James. You're not helping your case here.

[Flicker]

This post seems somewhat contradictory to me. Youre comfortable with my explanations (if town), but I still am your strongest scumread? Genuinely questioning why?

Post #66 is still the main reason I read you as scum, along with your general pattern of posting. The information about different site meta maybe throws that into question, though. Could we get a link to the other site, to see for ourselves?

PEdit: 1. What about Meji Fan is townish? 2. It stands for Preview Edit.

[Flicker]

(Posting this without any links because I drafted this quickly and my internet's been on the fritz, sorry y'all.)

Teacher:

Re: 137 - Bummer. Would have been interesting to see another site's meta, and also means I can't verify what you say. On the other hand, this "differences in meta" explanation would be a weird, detailed lie, so I'm inclined to take your word for it, which also tanks most of my scum-read on you.

Re: 138 - I can follow your logic, even if I disagree with it; reading anything out of a replace out seems like a stretch here. I still don't have any read on Meji (although, as mentioned by Not Known and Irrelephant, I also don't love their tunnel on Nauci). I also don't see politeness (or a lack-thereof) as AI, just a playstyle difference.

Re: 187 - Agree with this.

James:

Re: 143 - I guess what I should have said was that I could follow teacher's argument and would have (barely) accepted the read if it came from town? Like, if Irrelephant had said it instead, I would have gone, "eh, okay?" I don't think it's a great line of logic (note the ellipses before "fine" in both cases), which makes it questionable coming from a scum-read.

Oxy:

Re: 169 - Votes are also for pressure, not just for lynching, right? So that's what I did by moving to teacher and what I contemplated with TGP. Also, I'm not confident in any of my reads - I mean, that's what pinged me about James in the first place.

I also don't see how I "opined" about that scum read. Looking back, I regret even naming them, because I only thought it for about 1 second before questioning the post that made me think that.

Re: 190 - I'm a pretty self-conscious/self-aware person. And, in a game like this, I think more information is better than less. Mentioning my other voting options was also for the purpose of trying to get consensus and move the day forward from lots of single votes to more wagons, and looking for opinions about my options.

Not Known:

Other than your read on me, I generally like your posts so far. Gonna gently shuffle you towards my town read pile.

Irrelephant:

Yeah, sorry, I realize I never really updated my read on Nauci after she tanked my theory on her. I can do an ISO if you'd like, but here are my general thoughts:

First, her early play, while fluffy, still encouraged posting in a way that seems town. I've also pretty consistently liked/agreed with a bunch of her reads & posts. It doesn't hurt that she's also the first person to put forth any reads, and it was on me as town, which warms my heart. Although, I guess I could also be getting hoodwinked the way you're worried

I

might be doing to

you

...

And I appreciate the defense of me, but actually, my initial reasons for voting James were 50/50 policy/confidence. I'm not as opposed to the idea of policy lynches as most people seem to be, especially on day 1 when mislynches seem unavoidably common. I also think voting to pursue that angle (irritating post style) resolved it in a way that just mentioning it w/o a vote wouldn't have. Basically, I think I would have voted on policy alone if nothing else had pinged me. Take that as you will.

Spoiler: My full read list, FWIW

My full read list now:

Town: Nauci & Irrelephant
Town-lean: Thor, Not Known
Null: Oxy & teacher, Meji
Scum-lean: James

PEdit: I doubt moving my vote to Meji (or quiet posters more generally) will prompt them to post, but since it's that, move James to L-1, or just unvote (which is fairly pointless IMO), I guess I'll leave my vote where it is for now? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Flicker]

Oxy:

My read on James - overly confident, has an odd read list that's heavily lopsided towards scum (post #131), and re-skimming his ISO, it seems like he's trying to build up his own authority while tearing down others' (e.g. in post #85, when he says "I can't believe I'm saying this, but this counts as discussing ongoing games" re: Thor hinting at playing another game with Nauci, when it seems like the mod only called out DDS for it) (there's also been a couple comments directed at me with an air of "take my advice, I know what I'm talking about").

My read on you is a conflicted null, because I don't know what to make of you or your case against me, in comparison to my read on DDS.

Teacher:

I think you misread 120.

B) My DDS town read was based on his inactivity in this game vs. his higher activity in Newbie 1856, when he was scum. It seemed like the pressure of being scum motivated him to post, whereas here his lack of posting might be un-pressured town. Now that he's clarified that he's just been busy, I guess I was wrong, which means I fold him in with the other quiet posters as an IDK read.

"IDK read" = null read.

[Flicker]

Are you scumreading me?

... why do you even have to ask?

And if you're so sure that

I'm

scum all of a sudden (you've been pretty null on me until now), why not vote me instead? Wouldn't teaming up with Oxy be more productive than trying to create a new wagon this far into the day? Or did you not notice that Nauci moved her vote to teacher?

[Flicker]

Oh, hell, I'll put him at L-1, then.

VOTE: James Brafin

I was curious to hear his case against me, which is another reason I wanted to wait (in addition to fears of a quick hammer). Since I don't think we're gonna get it, and it seems like the day in general is winding down, I figure, let's get this show on the road. Teacher, feel free to claim intent to hammer instead.

PEdit: I think it's related to the ongoing game he mentioned (in maybe too much detail).

[Flicker]

EBWOP:

@Thor, my pedit is directed at you, just to be clear.

[Flicker]

"If teacher won't," given his reluctance. It made sense initially, but now it strikes me as a little too concerned or accommodating.

[Flicker]

His continued expressions of reluctance made me realize that my (similar) reluctance no longer made sense. So, I'm frustrated with him, myself, and the game in general - it feels like we're in a weird, in-between space where the day is basically over except for the actual lynch.

[Flicker]

@Oxy: You make a good point about the lack of arguments (or counter-wagons pushed) against James' lynch. Would you like me to unvote? I'd also consider switching my vote to where you are, if you weren't voting for me.

[Flicker]

My preferred lynch pool today includes You, Meji, and Nauci. In that order.

Welp. The only one on that list I'd be okay with lynching is Meji.

Also, I noticed you didn't answer my most pressing question, so I'll repeat it here:

Do you want me to unvote/switch my vote off James?

[Flicker]

I guess I'd be down for forming a block with Irrelephant?

I gotta go to bed now, though. See y'all in the morning.

PEdit: Will do.

[Flicker]

From what I've observed, the site meta here is to call for a role claim with intent to hammer, rather than just setting a time and hammering once that deadline had passed. I know we didn't get an extension, but we still have more than three days, and nobody should hammer without a claim IMO.

Also, even if deadline expires without a hammer, the highest vote-getter is still lynched, right?

@Thor, can you confirm or correct me on both of the above?

[Flicker]

Thor & teacher: I appreciate the rules clarification.

My response to James' read on me is coming, it just depends on when my internet connection will cooperate long enough for me to post it. I'm not typing all that out on my phone; this post has been difficult enough.

[Flicker]

And Comcast said, "Let there be Internet," and lo it was good.

Spoiler: Response to James' case

Firstly, what the heck? Second page, first post by Flicker, and we are already discussing policy lynching? And her only other reason is that she doesn't like "confidence." I don't understand why town can't eb confident in their scum reads, esp. since she's confident in her town reads later on.

My issue was

your high degree of confidence so early in the game

, not confidence as a general concept. I also think there's two different kinds of confidence - relative confidence in your readlist (town vs. town-lean), and a more absolute confidence about the game and your reads overall. Like, I wouldn't bet on my reads, but I still feel okay to put them out there and act on them, especially since, in the grand scheme of things, this is just a game.

Oh look, confidence in a read, after saying she doesn't are for this confidence from me. Surprise. And then there is this thing about not getting followers. It looks like she's trying to lead a lynch and gain town cred.

My "Confident enough" =/= your "fairly confident."

I already explained the "followers" comment in post #120.

This is freaking insane. Town should never shoot for a mislynch that gives them no information. That's just stupid; how are you going to catch scum if you lynch for no info, esp. that early? This is a blatant attempt to make a very scummy action (getting a mislynch) look less scummy.

I wasn't looking to turbo-lynch you - there would have been plenty of time to get information if my concern still stood. And I didn't really have a read on you that early, so I wasn't "shooting for a mislynch" (and I'm still not! If you flip town I'm gonna be disappointed!), I was using my vote as a tool to gain information and putting my honest opinion out in explanation.

I touched on my policy lynch stance a bit in post #193, but I'll lay out my reasoning more fully here.

Is a policy-lynch generally a pro-town move? In the strictest sense, I guess not. But, as a player, regardless of alignment, I put "having fun" and "winning" at the same level. And at the time (where I noted later on that I had a headache and thus was feeling more irritable), I saw your posting style as being antithetical to "having fun." Most importantly, I don't think it's anti-town to want to have fun and hopefully make the game more fun (or at least easier to follow) for other people, too.

Also, if I was scum, I probably wouldn't have said anything about a policy lynch, because it seems like a very contentious topic, and what kind of dumb scum would I be for bringing that kind of heat and scrutiny upon myself, especially if I didn't believe it?

Rereading your post, there's no way that's your intention. There's no mention of Nauci in that post, or adding pressure. This is bull.

The "just like Nauci said" was in reference to post #96, and I was basically just pointing out that I agreed with her thoughts w/r/t voting. And just because I didn't explicitly mention all my reasons doesn't mean they didn't exist. I frankly thought it would be self-evident that I was moving to put pressure elsewhere (because all votes put pressure somewhere). And I was also saying I was finally ready to vote with Nauci - I guess I should have typed "comfortable" instead of "confident," to make the call-back clear (although confidence and comfort are sort of inter-related to me).

Also, are you a mind-reader? Because I think I know my intentions better than you.

A) Okay, so I lose my confidence, but I'm still scummy? What the literal frick? That makes NO sense to me.
B) It looks like you're both sucking up to DDS and looking for town cred in this interaction with him.

A) That was in response to your 4:1 scum-reads to town-reads, not anything about your confidence.

B) The little aside I quoted from DDS was the funniest thing I'd read all game, literally laugh-out-loud, so I threw in an emoji to mark it. I also gave an honest impression of his post in general. I don't need to "suck up" or get town cred from anyone, I'm hoping people correctly read me as town based on my pro-town contributions.

A) So you're telling me that that post, coming from town, is fine, but coming from scum, is not? That makes loads of sense; how is something indicative one way if one persons says it, but the other way if the other person says it?
B) This is subtle buddying. It reads like you are trying to remind your scumbuddy that you're their scumbuddy.

A) I'm saying that the line of logic, and the conclusions put forth (most importantly, that Nauci was town) were barely agreeable with, but that because I didn't think teacher was town, I didn't agree with them, and saw them more as an attempt to make up an explanation for their bad decision after the fact. My saying "... fine, if you're town," is me saying, "okay, I don't really believe you, though."

B) Why would I need to remind my buddy that we're buddies in

this

thread, if we had a private topic together? All I was doing was giving my honest opinion, no more or less.

What the heck is this supposed to mean?

Oxy asked me for my brief scum-read on you, I gave it. I don't know what's so confusing about it.

And now we start paying attention to appearances once pressure is on.

It's not about appearances, it's about how eventually we should make a decision to lynch, and the amount of hesitation and concern for you that teacher was expressing seemed a little silly and/or potentially suspicious.

I've seen plenty of wagons fall apart at L-1. Trying to force the day to be over helps no one.

Frankly, did part of me want the day to just be over at that point? Yes. But I wasn't trying to force anything, just moving you to L-1 and waiting to see if someone would call for intent, or quick hammer, or something else.

YES. HE does, he's telling you he wants you to move your vote btween one of those three. But you won't move your vote.

I mean, that's the implication, but he could also have wanted me to stay on you for a little longer to see your reaction, or maybe he doesn't really care and he's only pretending to because he's actually scum. Since his actual answer is that he doesn't want to "coach" me, I still don't know.

NK15:

I'd like to see some explanation for the vote pattern of flicker, though.

Is your implied question answered by my response to James above? If not, what about my vote pattern would you like me to explain?

[Flicker]

UNVOTE: James Brafin

Something about James' response strikes me as genuine and towny. Guess I'm bad at scum-hunting so far. I have no idea where to put my vote now, though, which sucks.

Oxy:

I'm addressing the rest of town as much as James in my reply, and I figure that politeness is the best policy in general. I put a lot of mustard on it in my head, though, and if you re-read, I think a little of it bled through (particularly the "mind-reader" comment).

[Flicker]

First, from twilight:

NK15 - So I should have stayed on the wagon, even though I thought it was a mislynch? I mean, I don't want to help scum power role hunt, but I also don't want to lynch a townie. I also posted the unvote from my phone, when I should have been sleeping, because I didn't want to wake up to a hammer and night 1. I think doing so gave us a little more time with James, and forced other people to vote in a way that can now be analyzed.

(I regret I didn't get this comment in

during

twilight, but I thought I'd have enough time to take care of something quickly, and when I came back it was night.)

For today, I re-read all but the last two pages of the thread (I wanted to read it all, but procrastinated), and one thing that jumped out at me is this:

Thor ignored Elephant's IC question about site voting meta in post #80, while responding to a lot of the post it was in (post #88). I don't see how scum!IC benefits from withholding this meta advice, but I don't think town!IC would ignore it, either. I suppose it's possible he missed the question altogether, but it seems unlikely.

@Thor - care to explain?

[Flicker]

A mass claim seems like both a bad idea, and not necessary. The town is one more up than expected today, so there's a little more wiggle room for another possible mislynch.

I'm not entirely opposed to a doctor claim, but a jailkeeper claim doesn't make sense (could have jailkept a townie or scum to get no night kill). If we do ask for a claim, I think it should be just one PR, though.

@Thor - Would you still argue for a tracker claim today?

PEdit: The way Nauci laid it out, a tracker claim seems weaker now than it would have with a successful, non-tracker night kill.

[Flicker]

Thus, I think Thur-Friday have a jailkeeper/doctor claim (no setup has both).

Wrong - A2 has both.

I don't know what to make of NK15's claim - both the content, or how fast he did it. Thoughts, anyone?

PEdit: I don't see what the utility of a mass "I don't counterclaim" is. I won't be doing it until someone convinces me it's worthwhile.

PEdit2: I also don't see that "I don't counterclaim" is a necessary statement; if one doesn't say anything one way or the other, isn't that also just an "I don't counterclaim?"

(I agree with Irrelephant that the current speed and content of the game is very hard to keep up with right now. )

[Flicker]

If you are the cop, the neapolitan, or the jailkeeper, please counter claim.

But cop and neopolitan aren't counterclaims, are they?

And what, exactly, about "this shit" makes me scummy?

[Flicker]

Isn't it only a counterclaim if a doctor or neopolitan prevents the existence of a jailkeeper?

PEdit: Oh, okay, you're right. Sorry, this whole thing is very confusing to me...

[Flicker]

Sorry, not doctor, I meant cop. That's what I get for not quoting.

I don't know if I should answer that. What if you're role fishing??

Gosh, it'd be nice if the IC (or any other players, for that matter) weighed in on this... In fact, I'm gonna step back for a bit and wait for more people to post.

PEdit: Irrelephant, I don't know what you mean by "follow my town read on Oxy." Do you mean sheep Oxy/follow his ideas?

[Flicker]

Assuming NK15 is telling the truth for now, of the three options available to explain the no night kill, I feel like the most likely to least likely scenario is:

1. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
3. Thor was scum's night kill target.

Now, in backwards order, my reasons:

3. Given how ambivalent/wary most people were about Thor D1, I feel like any half-decent scum would leave him in to sow doubt rather than target him.
2. If Thor is scum, and his partner is less suspected by town, I feel like his partner would have submitted the night kill. (There's a possibility that his partner is more suspected than he is, but then that would be Meji or teacher, and there's a possibility that if one of them also has a role, they split their night actions.)
1. If scum failed to get the night kill in, that would seem to point to the two less-active players at the time, Nauci and Meji.

VOTE: Meji Fan, both the only player who overlaps in both my suspect pools and who I suspect the most. As much as I don't like teacher's play, I'm more inclined to think it's bad!town than scum (bolstered in part by James also being bad!town to some extent - sorry, James). I still feel like Nauci's town, but, looking through her meta, she has some scum games under her belt here, so she could be good at faking town.

PEdit: I guess I'd add "4. Scum chose not to night kill" to my list. I just don't see an advantage of that outweighing the power of the night kill.

PEdit2: Irrelephant - Based on my current reads, yeah, I think it's very possible that scum sat back and watched town mislynch. I don't think I made my reasons for unvoting clear enough that scum had anything to look past, but of the responses afterward, NK15's seemed the most like it could be scum (theory-based stuff being easier to fake). But now he's claimed, so...

(Also, FTR, I thought I was gonna be the first vote on Meji, not the third. I think I started drafting this post after post #452, and y'all haven't let up since.)

[Flicker]

But there is in fact an inconsistency. Nauci's first discussion of TGP says that she remembers nothing. 26. But then she tries to build a scum case from her previous game. 65. Inconsistency all the more suspicious because James says this is TGP's common Town!meta. 143 THIS is my biggest issue[...]

Between 26 and 65, Nauci could have

easily

gone back and skimmed that game, especially with TGP's reminder in post #48. Of all the things on your list, this seems like a bad one to latch onto.

[Flicker]

@Flicker: I find late submitted kill implausible with two team members. I also find dividing actions unlikely - why not have PR!mar (if any) conduct both actions to lower track odds.

I know it's implausible, I just think it's

less

implausible than the other scenarios I listed. It's a PoE read more than a certainty thing.

There's no tracker in column A, so no need to worry about lowering odds of a tracker hit. Even if we're in column B, a tracker hit is weak b/c it could also hit their fellow PR - let's say even odds of hitting either one of the scum split actions or the other PR, so 33% of the time a successful tracker hit misses scum altogether. I might take that risk to guarantee getting one successful night action - but IDK, maybe a more experienced player wouldn't.

@Flicker: If nauci did go back to game (effort), I see no reason why she would not also read at least one town!NGP game for comparison and realize NAI per James. I need to meta TGP myself to determine weight.

It seems a lot easier and more fun to relive old games. From what little meta-reading I've done, it's confusing, time consuming (even just skimming), difficult, and I don't think I've gotten a lot out of it. Meta where you've actually played a game with someone seems like a much better tool.

But I'm not necessarily arguing with your read overall, just with that reason & its prominence in your read, so I'm gonna drop it now.

PEdit: I know my unvote makes me look like a flibbertigibbet at best, and I think(?) I considered voting Meji (re-iterating that I should have been asleep when I posted), but Oxy was such a confusing read and teacher was a null and I didn't feel great about being on a wagon with them. I also thought when I woke up I'd have time to move my vote somewhere else/back to James, but Oxy hammered before I got back to the thread.

[Flicker]

Breadcrumbing confirmed later claim supports town.

I don't see where NK15 confirmed breadcrumbing - did he? If not, where do you think he breadcrumbed?

Bottom line, I guess Im not getting what about my ordering isnt making sense. But Im also not getting why its relevant. I sus you fourth on an 7 player board - can I be any more clear that I have no fracking idea what you are.

I just think putting so much of Nauci's scumread on that specific point is weak. I wasn't talking about your other reads at all. It's more of a nit-pick than anything else, which maybe isn't super-relevant to you, but whatever.

[Flicker]

HE didnt confirm breadcrumbing. But his early reaction my doctor only protective role (twice pointing out JK possibility without saying it) is breadcruming. And confirmed should be confirms -- this preclaim behavior supports the claim.

Ok, makes sense.

The second quote is to Thor. Your point was valid.

Ha, sorry.

[Flicker]

@Oxy:

My feelings on the no night kill right now are entirely based on believing NK15's claims of JK and targeting Thor. If those hadn't happened at all, then the situation is wide open; if I don't believe NK15, then I think he's scum.

If you want to go over my original reasoning and respond to that (rather than pick at the continuation of that reasoning), it's in post #469. Though, reading it over, my reasoning against point 2 (Thor is scum and was blocked) seems weaker than I originally thought, especially if

he's

partnered with Nauci or Meji and

had

to submit the night action(s).

[Flicker]

I am tracker. I tracked Thor. He went nowhere.

The way I read this is, you're saying that NK15

didn't

jailkeep Thor last night, because "he went nowhere" is a different result than "I couldn't see his actions (if any)." I don't see how this (or any of your other arguments) makes Thor guaranteed scum. Could you clarify this, please?

[Flicker]

Huh? Jailkeepers prevent kills. Not other actions.

You're right. I'm wrong.

Spoiler: My line of thinking, exposed

FTR, my line of thinking was this. From the wiki (emphasis mine):

A Jailkeeper (or Jailer)'s Night Action is one that protects its target from kills,

but also Roleblocks its target.

I assumed that role-blocking extended both ways, but further on it says:

Some Jailkeepers not only protect their target from all kills, but also render its target untargetable by all other actions during that Night. This variant is also known as Alien.

I assume this is non-normal and would be considered too powerful for the current Newbie setup? In any event:

[A jailkeeper] does not prevent other players from targeting their target with non-killing actions

This is what I get for not reading the

whole

wiki page.

[Flicker]

Is this still the order of likely scenarios in your mind?

No, I'd probably move "failure to submit night kill" to 4 now, and switch the original 2 and 3 to 1 and 2 (with the new 3 being the old 4).

*

The more I think about it, Oxy's right that assuming failure to submit the night kill is drastically underestimating scum, while assuming scum wouldn't target Thor for the night kill is maybe overestimating scum. Aside from just being the IC, there could also be something in particular in Thor's D1 posts that really scared scum.

I can still see scum!Thor, though. If we can't get Meji, I'd compromise on a Thor lynch. (I know, it's early to solidify the lynch, but I thought I'd put this out there.)

Speaking of a Meji lynch...

NK15:

I want to see Meji being lynched now more than ever. Their behaviour Day 1 was really sketchy.

Then why aren't you voting for Meji? You posted this after teacher and Oxy moved to Thor; your vote would only be to L-2.

---

*

For clarity, the revised list:

Spoiler: Revised no night kill scenario ranking

1. Thor was scum's night kill target.
2. Thor is scum and was prevented from killing his target.
-- GAP --
3. Scum chose not to night kill.
4. Scum didn't get the night kill in on time.

[Flicker]

I don't counterclaim NK15 or teacher. I thought Thor was also a holdout on "confirmed no cc'ing," but if teacher say I'm the only one, I believe him. (I'm too lazy to go back through Thor's ISO right now to check myself, anyway. )

I'd rather wait for the weekend to be over and Irrelephant to give his thoughts before anyone (me?) intents to hammer/hammers, though. If Thor has "no cc'd," then intent to hammer is not as meaningful, except as a courtesy to other players, right? And like I said, I'm okay with Thor's lynch, but I don't want to blindside Irrelephant with twilight or night.

[Flicker]

Flicker, now that I'm here, should I be reading 596 as your intent to hammer Thor?

Yes. Although I'll hold it until Nauci posts, since that's what teacher would like (and I would, too). (She's due for a prod, so hopefully that gets her in here to do

something

.)

PEedit:

Mod, you read my mind.

[Flicker]

I want to give Nauci 24 hours after the prod to post something substantial or replace before hammering. That's less than an hour from now. Y'all could try to relax until then.

[Flicker]

Alright, my deadline has passed.

VOTE: Thor665

That's hammer, and it's now twilight. Good luck, y'all.

[Flicker]

PEdit: I was gonna post my reads, but if Irrelephant agrees that teacher should out his tracking results first, then I'll wait, too.

PEdit2 @ teacher: Or, if you're scum, by not sharing your "result" immediately, you could be waiting for town to give reads so you can best fake a result that ensures a scum win...

I think your tracking result is more valuable than anything you hope to gain by withholding. After all, town is playing poorly or scum is playing well (or both), and a tracker result could help town significantly. You

might

get what you're hoping for by withholding, but if you're really the tracker I don't think you can afford to weaken your position in town's eyes by looking evasive. Please share posthaste.

[Flicker]

Okay, now that that's out of the way, what I was going to post earlier:

My suspicion pool right now is Meji Fan, Nauci/brassherald, and Oxy. If Meji is playing a town game, it's a very weak one in my eyes. I second teacher (post #753) that the most overtly suspicious thing Nauci did was her vote on Thor D2. Oxy has been on both lynches, helped lead the charge on Thor yesterday but refused to engage fully in the discussion, and from the jump has strongly scumread me when no one else was. (I know that last point won't be as compelling to anyone else, but it's part of my read, so.)

Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim. Finally, if Irrelephant is mafia he absolutely deserves to win, because his posts seem consistently pro-town.

PEdit @ teacher: I actually think in MYLO it's not a great idea to vote in general? It's not the absolute danger of LYLO, but it only takes two wrong townies to lose here, so I will be withholding my vote until I feel like we've found scum.

PEdit2 @ brassherald: Can you post a quick read list/lynch pool/general impressions cloud?

PEdit3 @ brassherald: Why don't you think read lists are useful?

[Flicker]

pedit: oh good Flicker has arrived, I want more from you about potential Oxy scum, gotta go bye

It's mostly his read on me (which, again, helps no one else, and also town players can have wrong reads) and his shift on Thor D2. On D1, he says Thor's being pushed for silly reasons (post #164); on D2, he pushes Thor on (in hindsight) somewhat silly reasons. Also, he accused me of bussing Meji, but could that be a cover for him actually bussing Meji, on both days? And then when it looks like Meji could actually get lynched D2, he jumps off (and back) to Thor?

I don't know; it's not a strong read. Honestly, I just don't feel he's town enough to take him

out

of the suspect pool.

**We also know that Thor was targeted as the night kill on N1. Someone should compile Thor's D1 reads**

Going through his ISO, I think Thor's only D1 reads were scum James and Meji (or, at least, would lynch per post #238) - everyone else was null. Other than saying "if I haven't expressed a read, it's null," (post #242) he did specifically mention he had a null read on teacher (post #125).

[Flicker]

I know I'm due for a prod so I'll just post this really quickly: if everyone could stop tunneling teacher I'd really appreciate it. Maybe I'm just the VI that's gonna cause town to lose, but I still believe he's the tracker. His claim, especially from the N2 actions, are just too weird of a lie IMO.

Also, since brass and teacher have both expressed doubts about Irrelephant being town, I intend to go through his ISO and town case him, hopefully by tomorrow or Monday at the latest. Since that's my other strongest read ATM, I figure it's the most I can contribute to town.

[Flicker]

In terms of an Irrelephant/Oxy scum team, there's a comment Oxy made at twilight D1 (post #353 - "Never lynch elephant, teacher") that I think makes it very unlikely. That's too bold a move of protection from one scum to another, IMO. (I know, I know, WIFOM.)

Here's my town case on Irrelephant so far. I did this pretty quickly in a text document, so there's no links, sorry. Also, I only got through D1, and I read somewhere that early game play gives you the most info, so I might just stop here? (Also, I'm lazy, and TBF I never promised a full ISO.)

Spoiler: Irrelephant's Day 1 ISO

49 - Not a lot there, although I'm slightly inclined to think the info about availability is townie? Could be NAI though.
64 - First substantive post - quotes and engages with four players, engages the other four. Good start, esp. the TGP catch.
69 - "Oops! all townies" scum team idea. Still agree with my defense of it earlier, and also it reads a lot like an (over?)eager townie trying to make sense of the big 1v1.
75 & 80 - Follow-up on questioning of Thor from 64. Notes he's already leaning away from scum team theory, which feels like townish uncertainty.
104 - Quotes and engages four players again. Unless teacher's lying, it's still an "oops! all townies" scum pool, but I think understandable given the claim hadn't come yet and general D1 play.
106 - Engages me on my reading of Thor v James, provides an updated read on same, and votes James.
108, 111, 112 & 140 - Engaging Thor on Thor v James, admits confirmation bias/paranoia against Thor, also engages with Meji and Nauci.
141, 142 & 171 - Engages and quotes two players, engages with replacement player and makes note of how his reads differ from the previous slot owner.
172 - Engages with another player (also, as a general impression, I feel like Irrelephant has tried to engage Meji the most, which feels good.)
183, 185 & 186 - engages Oxy on his read of me. Personally, highly appreciated.
188 - Engages me on my Nauci read, which TBF I hadn't made particularly clear.
204 - More Oxy engagement re: me. Nothing in these exchanges so far feels SvS to me.
205 - Full reads list, seems pretty fair to me.
207 - Engages with three more experienced players about fourth SE and Oxy flip flopping their slots' reads, and continues exchange about Oxy's read on me.
210, 292, 341 - Not much here, mostly clarification and continuation of reads, more transparency about availability.
346 - Engages two players, gives updated reads.
356 - Twilight post with if!scum/if!town reads.

TL;DR

- So far in the ISO, Irrelephant engages with other players fairly consistently, focuses on areas of concern without losing sight of the bigger picture, and is transparent about reads and posting availability. Nothing in this makes me feel bad.

Okay, now I'm gonna go through the weekend's posts and actually respond to stuff, even though re-reading it will probably make me want to pull my hair out.

[Flicker]

Spoiler: A wall of many small responses to the weekend

then almost 60 posts later at 250 she finally votes her one scum read, citing wanting to have a reason for James' scum read on her, rather than citing her own scum read on James.

I wanted to give James time to get his read on me in, in case someone quick hammered. I also didn't think I needed to state the case on James at that point.

For all NK kept saying he love loved teacher and we should follow teacher's lead . . . . he jailkept teacher?

Meji lock town

This seems like a weak reason to read Meji as town, much less lock town. Just as easy for scum to call out the inconsistency and set up teacher's mislynch.

I dont see Meji-(Oxy, Elephant, Flicker) as possible due to votes. And I dont see Meji-Brass as possible due to Meji's Nauci tunnel and your entry. So Meji is town.

Also a weak reason to town Meji. Any one of us could have bussed Meji D2, NK15 said something about Meji's tunnel being scum-like, and I don't see anything in Brass' entry precluding a team, either.

Feeling bad about this. As the first person to throw suspicion Oxy's way I was excited to hear your case - I don't think scum makes a case on someone who isn't an easy mislynch, it seems much more likely to come from genuine town- but you're basically backing off the first chance you get. Seems more like you were hoping for someone else to get behind this and are disappointed to realize your mislynch options are being narrowed by town

All I know is that we've lynched wrong two days in a row and

cannot

lynch wrong today. Also, of my two scum reads D1, one is the uncc'd tracker and the other was a VT. That's really blown the wind out of my scum hunting sails.

Today’s shared push on me. Could be scum trying for a mislynch win, but like I said the case is legit.

Another strike against an Oxy/Irrelephant team - again, this is too bold a move from a scum team, IMO.

I'll answer your posts in full before bed, but to correct one thing - Meji is clear because she pointed out why you must be scum.

Scum might distance today - they might even bus - but I don't see them giving the solve like that. If scum!meji is busing you here by outing why your result is wrong, that's on another level.

Or Meji's scum and teacher's not, and she's setting up the easiest mislynch left in the game.

serious request:

Can I see a show of hands of people who would make those final posts when in NK's position, and then proceed to jail teacher?

48 hours with nothing happening in the game is a long time to change your mind, though. And I think I've already demonstrated that I'm enough of a flibbertigibbet to pull off a 180 of this nature.

VOTE: No Lynch

I wrote all this other stuff up already, but the closer to the end I got, the more I feel like this is the only play. Town is not on the same page to lynch anyone, and I doubt we will be, so I'd rather we choose not to lynch now, while the timing is best (since weekends tend to be V/LA for at least a couple people), than grind this out to deadline in 9 days (!) and give ourselves so many more posts to deal with.

I agree with brass that the best play would have been to agree to a no lynch from the start of day, to give scum little information, but better now than later.

[Flicker]

I just realized there's a lot of stuff about the cases on me that I haven't adequately addressed (like the rest of brass' initial assessment of me - I quoted the only part I had an immediate response for, but I know not addressing all of it is fishy), that I

have

to address if town is to win. I've just been feeling a little defeated by all the suspicions on me, and I'm not sure how to get y'all to trust me.

But, I'm not saying anything else from here on out that isn't about convincing people to no lynch and end the day. Scum has plenty of info; they don't need a drop more.

[Flicker]

I think that's the nicest thing you've said to me all game, Oxy. I will take your advice under consideration.

Teacher, I hope that's not directed at me (but I understand if it is).

What do both of you think of no lynching?

[Flicker]

But you're not willing to vote it yet. Why? It's lower stakes than voting for another player. (Unless I'm missing something?)

[Flicker]

In a pretend world where:

A, E, I, and O are town while U and Y are scum,

and A, E, and I say U is scum while O, U, and Y say E is scum, how does a nightkill help more than playing today out? (this is intentionally not a perfect parallel to our game, it's just a talking point)

Seems like one of Ab/Ef/Ij always dies, leaving the game easier for scum to win. Until now, all players but you have shared lotsa reads info, so scum only has 1 source of guesswork overnight, or 0 if somehow you're town and die tonight. What's left for town to gain from this?

I think the best advantage is that we'll have another confirmed townie's reads to look through to help make or unmake any cases. Also, A/E/I dies and their reads - right or wrong - are at least genuine, and therefore another data point of "this is what town play looks like."

Furthermore, I think in this particular situation, E is always left alive as the easiest mislynch for scum to win. So A or I dies, leaving the other torn between their correct read and the push on the mislynch, and the minute A/I or O is on the E wagon, the scum jump on to win. Oh - I think I just argued

against

a no lynch. Hmm...

I just don't see myself being able to trust three of you the way I might be able to trust two of you (if I'm not nightkilled, and why would I be? I'm basically E right now). And I know town needs me to win. But, if y'all are really dead-set against a no lynch today, I'll concede and come back with my reads.

[Flicker]

Okay, then. I guess I'll just work through my reads now.

All the possible teams:

Spoiler: All teams list

brassherald/Irrelephant
brassherald/Meji Fan
brassherald/Oxy
brassherald/teacher

Irrelephant/Meji Fan
Irrelephant/Oxy
Irrelephant/teacher

Meji Fan/Oxy
Meji Fan/teacher

Oxy/teacher

If my town reads on Irrelephant and teacher are right, the possible teams left are:

Spoiler: Teams minus Irrelephant and teacher

brassherald/Meji Fan
brassherald/Oxy

Meji Fan/Oxy

Since brass/Oxy is unlikely,* then Meji is the partner of either brass or Oxy.

Brass/Meji is slightly less likely because of Meji's tunnel on Nauci (although NK15 felt like it was a scummy tunnel - wish I'd asked him to explain that further).

As for Meji/Oxy, Oxy bussing Meji while setting up my mislynch for the next day is possible, and there's really nothing from Meji's side until today about either DDS or Oxy, and the suspicious at Oxy are fairly weak.

(*Not that I think it's impossible - something like the Nauci/DDS argument could have happened if one or both of them play as scum primarily by lying to themselves about being town and ignoring day chat. Then, they realize they rub each other the wrong way and DDS replaces out, not as a gambit but because they just genuinely annoy each other. I doubt it, though.)

However

, if Meji is town (which seems more likely now they're trying to stop my lynch, because they have nothing to gain by defending me today unless they're really gonna bus their partner), then I think I have to reevaluate my reads on teacher and Irrelephant. The possible teams then would be:

Spoiler: Teams minus Meji Fan

brassherald/Irrelephant

brassherald/Oxy

brassherald/teacher

Irrelephant/Oxy
Irrelephant/teacher

Oxy/teacher

I find brass/Irrelephant fairly plausible. Note that Nauci's initial read on Irrelephant wasn't much of one (post #97, basically "null because he's too nice"), and skimming their ISO they're neither buddied nor distancing (although brass' thoughts at post #789 maybe changes that a little*), which seems like a middle-ground relationship that scum wants(?).

(*Sidenote - I don't feel great about this post. Aside from his reads on Oxy and I guess teacher, I'm actually not sure what his other reads are here? "Playing guarded," "weird voting patterns," and "short ISO with only one vote" aren't exactly scum or town reads.)

Brass/teacher is also possible - brass starts off saying "I won't lynch teacher," then course corrects when he realizes his "mistake" (of not knowing the setup? of scum-slipping?). But, do Nauci and teacher immediately distance by voting each other as soon as teacher shows up? I don't know; seems like a risky and attention-grabbing gambit. But, if teacher's scum, he's up for gambits. Still, I find this less likely than brass/Irrelephant.

I find neither of Irrelephant's other teams plausible based on today - too coordinated with Oxy, too distancing with teacher.

Oxy/teacher is similar today to Irrelephant/teacher (worse, because of Oxy's vote), ergo also implausible.

The only teams left I haven't looked at are Irrelephant/Meji and Meji/teacher. Both these teams have a similar dynamic - Irrelephant/teacher works hard to establish town cred, including by pressuring/bussing Meji where necessary, and Meji sort of softly questions them without any real pressure. On the other hand, a world where both Meji and Irrelephant/teacher are scum is troubling to me and my ability to make reads.

In conclusion, my list of plausible teams today, in a world where my individual reads are meaningless, roughly in order of more to less likely:

brass/Irrelephant
Meji/Oxy
Meji/Irrelephant, Meji/teacher
brass/Meji
brass/teacher

But, again, what does scum!Meji have to gain from defending me? Which would leave the plausible teams at:

brass/Irrelephant
brass/teacher

So, based on this, brass is the lynch today, and whichever of Irrelephant and teacher didn't vote for brass is the lynch tomorrow.

(Have you ever simplified a really long math problem, and the answer is 1, and you go "wait, that can't be right?" I feel like that here. )

[Flicker]

Also, to lighten the mood a little...

Spoiler: Fun? In MY MafiaScum?!

Are you a

TOWNIE

who likes to lose

? Or are you just tired of this game and want to end it?

Then

VOTE FLICKER

!

A vote for Flicker is a vote for

the Mafia

!

"Down with the Mafia! Protect Flicker!"

™

(This post approved by the Council to Stop Flicker's Lynch.)

[Flicker]

UNVOTE:

I don't think it counted since it's in a spoiler, but just in case.

[Flicker]

It's fine, I just unvoted the "no lynch" that isn't happening anyway. S'all good.

PEdit: Brass is pretty much my only comfortable vote today, yes (unless someone can point out mistakes I made in my analysis).

PEdit2: I'd still rather sleep over brass, but I feel like "no lynch" is a lost cause.

[Flicker]

Have you gone back and looked at Nauci's play to see if it looks scummy in retrospect?

Only in conjunction with whichever partner I was looking at for my analysis. But, thinking back, it's maybe not as towny as I thought? I don't know that there's any value at looking back at it though scum-colored lenses, though.

Honestly, you all plausibly look town to me at this point, which is obviously impossible. Aside from Irrelephant, who I've only recently suspected through PoE team-hunting, I've also suspected all of you to one degree or another. So, a part of me is up for any lynch that ends the day (and possibly the game), even if it's mine (which I

know

will end the game). But the other part of me doesn't want to basically throw in the towel, even though I'm tired and confused kind of expecting a town loss. Whoever wins, I don't know if it's "good game, mafia" or "bad game town." (Don't know why I felt the need to wax on about the game like this, but whatever...)

And with that, I'm probably off until Friday. Various sundry things in my life have conspired to make me very busy tonight and tomorrow. I should be back before my prod Friday, though, and I could pop in for a quick "no lynch" vote if the wind shifts that way.

PEdit: Bummer, Irrelephant. I second teacher, and add that I think a TL;DR now is better than nothing. Then, we at least have something to go off of or question, while you try to piecemeal the rest of your lost replies together.

[Flicker]

Quick post from my phone, I'll get to everything else tomorrow.

I aso find it very convenient that Flicker has as her lynchpool the three people who have mostly said she is likely scum. It's a cop out defense. "If someone is scum reading me, they are probably scum" and she went through and found reasons afterwards. It's suspicious to me.

Pretty sure everyone but Meji suspects me at this point, so this is a meaningless observation.

[Flicker]

Maybe I'm too trusting of a person, but I'm still inclined to believe teacher's tracker claim.

@Flicker, this is all you have said about teacher's night result. Most players then spent like two pages discussing it and its ramifications. Do you have any response to that discussion?

Actually, I did respond, here (emphasis added):

I know I'm due for a prod so I'll just post this really quickly: if everyone could stop tunneling teacher I'd really appreciate it. Maybe I'm just the VI that's gonna cause town to lose, but I still believe he's the tracker.

His claim, especially from the N2 actions, are just too weird of a lie IMO.

A fake tracker claim, with a fake jailkept claim, seems like a ridiculous, unnecessary lie for scum to make when the much easier lie is a nullread. I'm also not convinced NK15 would

never

have jailkept the player he believed was the tracker. I don't think it's the optimal play, but I can appreciate changing your mind, as well as the argument teacher makes here (and elsewhere):

Spoiler: NK15 jailkeeping teacher scenario

I think NK thought I was town, for the reasons Oxy excerpted. Certainly, his D2 and Twilight D2 comments seemed to say he would not JK me.

It still makes sense for NK to JK me, even with his townread, because he knew that read could be wrong. Given the surface interpretation of NK's D2 comments, I truly believe scum!me would have to be assigned the night actions. NK thus JKs me to cover the risk his read was wrong, but also to conf!town me if he does die. This is possibly the best move NK can make, even though it deprives the town of my tracking, because its 50/50 rather than the >33% chance of JK scum (magnified by the risk I cant actually track), and it provides a conf!town if the kill nonetheless goes through.

(Flicker: you've asked "what does scum meji have to gain from townreading me?" and if you're town the answer is pocketing)

To what end? To re-direct me to a different mislynch? To actually end the day without a lynch, despite posts opposed to the idea? The only plausible goal I see for scum!Meji to townread me is to make the mislynch machinations from their partner less suspicious, because five people scum-reading a slot at this point means either someone is (soft)bussing their partner (unlikely) or all the townies are wrong (very possible).

Although, thinking more, I suppose the other, more obvious option is to prevent me from voting them...

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass. But, before that, I think I need to go through my scum team analysis and put Meji back in the mix. I also think I'll go through the scenario of brass being town, just to be thorough.

[Flicker]

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass.

I would completely support this to prove that there is at least one in {brass, teacher, flicker}

Yeah, but you'll assume it's either teacher or me.

I'm waiting for the weekend to be over before voting, anyway. Seems like the polite thing to do, given all the V/LAs. Up

[Flicker]

Meji stole my vote spot and now I don't know what to do. On the one hand, I doubt both scum would start a wagon in this situation, rather than waiting for two townies to jump on a wagon and then quick L-1 and hammering. On the other hand, if I'm wrong about teacher he's all about gambits, or Meji/teacher could be bussing their partner knowing they won't get lynched today. Or, Irrelephant's letting their partner gambit/take votes while they sit back and pretend!town chat with Oxy. Hmm...

@Oxy: I think teacher explains his lock scum brass theory in the post he voted for him in (post #1006).

[Flicker]

Flicker, in 963 you start the post by assuming teacher and I are town. However, you then decide that since Meji is defending you, Meji is town and teacher and I are back on the table. This leads you to narrow it down to me/brass and teacher/brass. In 1035, though, you admit there is scum motivation for Meji to defend you. How does that affect the likelihood of teams?

Also, in 963, you say your list of plausible teams is "in a world where my individual reads are meaningless". What happens when you include individual reads?

If you and Oxy are town, my lynch and game over are imminent, but I guess I'll answer this as best I can anyway.

If Meji is possible scum the teams are:

brass/Irrelephant
Meji/Oxy
Meji/Irrelephant, Meji/teacher
brass/Meji
brass/teacher

(Although I go back and forth on whether Meji/Oxy is more likely than Meji/you or teacher. I guess I put Meji/Oxy slightly above because of my previous town reads?)

If I throw my reads back in - though at this point I'm confused/uncertain about everyone - and go back to you and teacher being town, then the teams are:

Meji/Oxy
brass/Meji

[Flicker]

For the record, I'm a Vanilla Townie. (I know that was the implication of not cc'ing, but I don't know if Quick read that.) Meji's also a confirmed townie now. Unless both scum are already on my wagon, I expect Quick to come back in ~1 1/2 hours and hammer for a scum victory.

Quick, if you're town,* is there anything I can do/say to get you

not

to vote for me?

(*Which I don't think you are, but if you engage with me instead of voting, you probably are... unless you want to slow play/troll the win a little.)

[Flicker]

*She, but nbd.

GG, everybody.

*hands Oxy a towel to wipe the egg off his face*