Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

i have a night 0 cop guilty on skitter30

sorry skitter was hoping to play with town-you

VOTE: skitter30

[Mathdino]

yeah i could tentatively see TW as scum with skitter

VOTE: the worst

remember to lynch skitter tomorrow

[Mathdino]

i'm policy lynching all 3 ducks at this rate

[Mathdino]

I would feel bad about pushing scioness with maximum Mathdino weight on d1 off of 1 post
I would otherwise sheep you, as I agree the post is more scum indicative than null
Waiting til everyone checks in

[Mathdino]

cool sunshine is town, who's next

[Mathdino]

i never roll scum

pretty good for staying in the same mindset through my games when i'm always town

[Mathdino]

her best scumgame is the one where RC was coaching her and editing her posts
outside of that i think i have a good handle on her scumrange

of course since you HAD to ask, scum-skitter is going to be hyperaware of our ability to meta-read her this game soooooooooo

[Mathdino]

we should probably talk about the almost certain fact that we have a 2-shot vigilante to deal with btw

as someone who has almost universally seen vigs make bad shots

i would 100% recommend shooting people that are likely to get lynched tomorrow (or before lylo)

[Mathdino]

I, too, am getting a townvibe from Sunshine.

Ofrhz, as well, but to a lesser extent. Similar quick jump from playful -> serious as in last game's opening.

Does anyone know a spicy strat for this setup?

Because if one exists, Mathdino is probably scum.

p.edit nm on that last part, lol.

the power roles are innocent child, 2-shot vig, and one other between 1-shot cop and Tracker depending on how the scumteam feels about balance

the spicy strat is literally just making sure the vig isn't an idiot. the vig was selected specifically because scum knows that vigs are hilariously dumb on MS and almost always shoot town.

innocent child reveals when they feel like it. probably don't reveal too early.

the others - 1-shot cop should investigate someone unlikely to be NK'd, difficult to sort, and unlikely to immediately be lynched. there's a mastina guide i think called A View On Cops
tracker can do what they want. just find someone you think will be selected to do the NK. different strokes for different folks
jailkeeper almost certainly doesn't exist lol

[Mathdino]

You ain't seen nothing yet
Have you read the game? I'd say we're solidly out of RVS

[Mathdino]

I actually had a plan for if I rolled scum this game specifically to subvert expectations

[Mathdino]

I actually had a plan for if I rolled scum this game specifically to subvert expectations

Is no one interested in this

[Mathdino]

1. Pick the worst possible roles. Jailkeeper, tracker, Vig probably. No cop because I'm a natural cop target.
2. Insist through the whole game that there's an innocent child because any scumteam that chooses otherwise is idiotic.
3. Neverbus my buddies so tracker/jailkeeper don't fuck us over.
4. Shoot all the PRs, potentially mislynch the 3rd one by arguing that there must be an innocent child out there and jailkeeper is an easy fakeclaim.
5. Once it becomes clear that scum didn't take innocent child, argue I'm conftown because I make mechanically correct decisions.

1 bad vigshot and 2 mislynches puts us in 7p or 8p lylo. Win this.

But then I rolled town whoops

[Mathdino]

Being the current best pr hunter onsite helps a lot with not losing against difficult mechanical positions

[Mathdino]

yeah that makes sense actually. the idea behind not choosing IC though is to say "there's an IC out there not revealing, this bucko claiming jailkeeper is clearly lying though"

tbh vigs hurt town less when i'm in the game, as both alignments

when i'm scum me and my team are bad so we get shot

when i'm town i threaten to shout at the vigs if they're stupid

i also have a system for making sure vigs don't shoot PRs (they seem to do this a lot) but we'll talk about that more down the line

[Mathdino]

i also have a system for making sure vigs don't shoot PRs (they seem to do this a lot) but we'll talk about that more down the line

Does it involve town voting on either a player to shoot or no shot and having the majority voted player claim?

Vig feels super powerful to me. If town does it that way, it's like having 2 extra days to VCA / lynch scum

Vaguely similar to a 2-shot doc/JK that never guesses wrong, except the doc doesn't get extra information about who scum tried to NK, and the shot has to be decided without seeing the day's flip, and you don't get an extra day of investigative results (not super relevant in this setup I guess)?

I feel like I wouldn't want to give town vig if I were scum. I was trying to break the setup and I thought scum would pick either
IC+cop+tracker (based on power levels alone, but now scum have to claim JK)
IC+cop+JK (claim tracker, try to lynch JK claims)
IC+tracker+JK (claim cop, try to lynch JK claims)

Unlike JK, giving town a vig doesn't let you try to lynch the vig.

The other choices seemed less useful to me because they give town more objective power without adding to the fake claim space.

I came up with some strategy to reduce scum's claim space based on IC claiming D1. If IC gets shot, lynch all JK claims. Otherwise, there's a confirmed town that probably lives until JK dies. I'm not sure if it even makes sense though. I don't have a good understanding of how bad it is to out IC, and how bad it is for JK to be somewhat afraid to jail people other than the IC

- Yeah that's exactly it. That worked fine last game until the vig decided to play hero and shoot my top townread instead.

- History of this setup shows scum almost always pick the vig. Because vigs are stupid. They'd rather have the extra townies removed than town potentially get guilties on them.

- I'm not into setup-based ultimatums.

But ruru is pretty obviously town.

[Mathdino]

That only matters if you're scum. I'm not famous for my vig strategy, I'm famous for breaking setups in general.

So I will admit that the niche scenario of you being scum would mean scum probably went for Tracker/Cop.

Townbloc right now is {Mathdino, Sunshine, ruru}. Looking to add more.

[Mathdino]

I, too, am getting a townvibe from Sunshine.

Ofrhz, as well, but to a lesser extent. Similar quick jump from playful -> serious as in last game's opening.

Does anyone know a spicy strat for this setup?

Because if one exists, Mathdino is probably scum.

p.edit nm on that last part, lol.

It turned out that the first thing I was town reading Sunshine13 for is NAI.

Luckily, I feel more confident in my new reason for town reading him. =)

I can drop this into a weaker townread.

[Mathdino]

well your vote right now is on obvtown so i have no reason to pay attention to you

hit me up with some good reads

[Mathdino]

okay

VOTE: Mohab500

[Mathdino]

once upon a time, 5 pages was half the average length of D1s on this site

and now people running around claiming page 5 is too early for actual reads hahahaha

[Mathdino]

jailkeeper almost certainly doesn't exist lol

4. Shoot all the PRs, potentially mislynch the 3rd one by arguing that there must be an innocent child out there and jailkeeper is an

easy fakeclaim

How's JK an easy fakeclaim if it certainly doesn't exist? A JK claim would be obviously real since picking him would be idiotic from scum.

This inconsistency is pinging me hard, you don't fail in this kind of shit

wat

the point would be telling people "lol no way scum picked jailkeeper, you're just claiming JK to draw out the town PRs!" and mislynching the jailkeeper

how does picking JK being idiotic make JK claims MORE likely to be real? that makes no sense

[Mathdino]

CHECKMATE, TAKE THAT MIDDLE SCHOOLER

oxy help me read the people you actually played with before

Edit: I'd rather not continue this discussion because it essentially preempts the inevitable scum PR claims.

Like the point was to comment on setup decisions that have already happened and are already locked in, not to talk about possible claims that might happen.

Same request above goes to you.

[Mathdino]

Dino could be scum

wat

[Mathdino]

okay pintu can be town as well

skitter is a horrible D1 lynch and probably so is TW?

lynchpool: {AP, Draynth, Mohab, ofhrz, Sci, UglyDuck}

[Mathdino]

My vote on mohab is now policy

[Mathdino]

AP can be scum if mohab is town

[Mathdino]

didn't like mohab's vote post, seems like he's letting me lead town off a cliff

[Mathdino]

*didn't like AP's mohab vote post

[Mathdino]

cool gimmick though, better than mohab's method of shitposting

still your actual content is scum-indicative i think

also mohab's point on TW is actually not wrong

[Mathdino]

Do you find mohabs garbage posts alignment indicative in some way

[Mathdino]

AP is still a high quality alt lol
I'm beginning to want to keep him around for entertainment xD

[Mathdino]

Honestly it feels like Lang Buddha

[Mathdino]

Was at agent powers obviously
TW hit me up with some townreads that aren't already in my townbloc, sell me

[Mathdino]

Imo the only thing townish about skitters iso (things I don't think she would fake) is her first post
I want to townread her
But skittering isn't alignment indicative

[Mathdino]

Sad that TW took my place in oxys townbloc but that's otherwise good

TW you might wanna start here if you don't wanna wait for ruru

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10038155

[Mathdino]

I love this game

[Mathdino]

Did you ever hear the tragedy of Dino Plagueis the Wise?

It's not a story the townbloc would tell you.

[Mathdino]

The dark side of the game is a pathway to many scumhunting abilities some consider to be unnatural. He became so powerful... the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught the newbies everything he knew, then his newbies lynched him in his sleep.

It's ironic he could save others from the lynch, but not himself.

[Mathdino]

Fuck RC did that bit already

Subject: Newbie 1788 - Game Over

Did you ever hear the tragedy of Darth Cowbellus The Wise? I thought not. It’s not a story the Town would tell you. It’s a Mafia legend. Darth Cowbellus was a Dark Lord of the Bus, so powerful and so wise he could use the Town to influence the votes to lynch anyone… He had such a knowledge of the lynching arts that he could even keep his scumpartners from dying. The dark side of the Force is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural. He became so powerful… the only thing he was afraid of was getting betrayed by his teammates, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his apprentice everything he knew, then his apprentice bussed him in return. Ironic. He could save his scumpartners from being lynched... but not himself.

[Mathdino]

DID SOMEONE SAY NASH EQUILIBRIA :O

[Mathdino]

The word policy makes me froth at the mouth
I have been known to get so policylusted that I policy bus all my scumbuddies

[Mathdino]

Sometimes I worry people will pull that meta card so it motivates me to suggest even more policy lynches
It's a self fulfilling prophecy really

[Mathdino]

Oh shit speaking of that
Mohab should probably be policyvigged for asking to be lynched
Newbie 1859ers will understand

[Mathdino]

Hmm my vote isn't very good rn
VOTE: Draynth
Let's try here

[Mathdino]

anyway i didn't vote you because i didn't feel like pressure would make you more readable

and also i felt bad

[Mathdino]

I agree SS's entrance was a little bit weird but I think this is weirder

I used this same excuse when I was scum. I think it's a little bit true but I think a town player would try anyway

And I think town!dino plays to win 100%, so the other reason is a bit fishy to me too

so here's the dealio

i've seen scioness flip out under pressure as both alignments, in two different games (i spectated the good scumgame that i kept talking about)

i tunneled her last game because i thought her behaviour was similar and fakable. i was wrong (it turns out that being good at scum legit just means playing the same way as either alignment)

i am bad at reading AtE.

so it does not constitute "playing to win" to call for an early wagon on someone who i know will likely flip out and produce unreadable content. it's a lot easier to step back and let her do her thing.

plus the vast majority of wagons don't actually lead to lynches. while she was (until she made her last wallpost) my top scumspect, it doesn't necessarily benefit me to speedlynch my top scumread today, ESPECIALLY when i've been shown to have little ability to readh er

[Mathdino]

How is it bad to lynch an unreadable strong scum player d1

oh it's perfectly fine, i could D1 lynch scioness if i end up with too many townreads

it's just not useful to do it on like page 2

i suspect there are things about her that ARE readable though now that i have 2 data points instead of 1

so we'll see where things go down the line

do you feel like helping me wagon anyone not in the townbloc

cuz like full disclosure

your vote on me is really just gonna get me to argue with you more today -- while i accept being your top scumread (for what's not a good tell and especially not a good tell for my meta), it's not a useful place for your vote right now

#bias

[Mathdino]

How is it bad to lynch an unreadable strong scum player d1

He’s a strong town player. and if what he says is true, he’ll bus his own scum partners, thereby doing some of the work for us.

So no, I don’t want to lynch him d1. Plus I think everything he said in 280 is true.

i'm pretty sure ruru is talking about scioness being an unreadable strong scum player

i'm actually readable but i produce so much content that people get a headache trying to read/meta me

[Mathdino]

@Math, Yeah oops. Do you have any scum games you can point me to?

Three In One Part 2
Anything uPick
Jester Nightless
Micro 769

i don't roll scum very often

feel free to go through my topic history for more

[Mathdino]

i'm unprepared to read scioness without understanding the difference between her towngame and her scumgame

my northside pal was able to identify the difference easily, so clearly there IS something, it's just not within my range right now to see it

that said her recent posting wasn't scummy so she's not currently my top scumspect

[Mathdino]

lynchpool: {AP, Draynth, Mohab, ofhrz, Sci, UglyDuck}

I don't have any
Not enough content to tell

[Mathdino]

Wait skitter and the worst are outside both my townpool and lynchpool

I actually think TW is my top scumspect haha

[Mathdino]

It was the first RVS wagon and it was Sajj's first post. What could she have done to be less vague?

No alt, and I upon cursory examination, I have played 26 games of mafia. Holy shit. First game on this site since the place I normally play is pretty much dead used to smaller games (around 9-13 players) so I might try my hand at a bigger once once I get used to how things operate in a different place.

I think 13p is the perfect size game (give or take)
welcome. hope you enjoy it here.

sheeping the first rvs wagon to L-2 with nothing but a "hi" post pings me as more likely scummy than null/towny. L-2 also lacks the accountability of L-1 or even like a 2nd vote, it's a decent position for scum to be in.

idk if it were me I'd say something like "good wagon, evilduck must die (vote)" but that's not really the point.

I'm not lockscumming her ass and suggesting we lynch with fire but it's a great place to start

btw Math is super super heavily invested in the whole Mafia Discussion world and is incredibly sharp re. open setups. everything he says will be objectively correct or a highly educated opinion. but it's not alignment indicative.

All of this feels incredibly fake and forced tbh.

this read is actually on point and is the same read that i get reading this post

that's about it though

i don't see many players in this game that i would expect to make themselves obvious as scum on D1 so i'm primarily working off PoE here

[Mathdino]

it's like you WANT me to get you lynched

[Mathdino]

well the fact that there's for sure scum somewhere in the following



means i'm not exactly in a place to nail scum or lead wagons

i can't nail someone off 1 or 2 posts nor do i have any faith in my ability to correctly scumread someone off 1 or 2 posts

i have my townbloc, now i'm just playing a waiting game

vote some lurkers with me, i was promised catchups

[Mathdino]

let it be known that you asked for it
i am not actually tunneling you as hard as the following is going to make it seem

I think 13p is the perfect size game (give or take)
welcome. hope you enjoy it here.

sheeping the first rvs wagon to L-2 with nothing but a "hi" post pings me as more likely scummy than null/towny. L-2 also lacks the accountability of L-1 or even like a 2nd vote, it's a decent position for scum to be in.

idk if it were me I'd say something like "good wagon, evilduck must die (vote)" but that's not really the point.

I'm not lockscumming her ass and suggesting we lynch with fire but it's a great place to start

btw Math is super super heavily invested in the whole Mafia Discussion world and is incredibly sharp re. open setups. everything he says will be objectively correct or a highly educated opinion. but it's not alignment indicative.

1. game irrelevant comment

2. buddying newbies

3. overexplained version of "L-2 is often the scumspot on the wagon"

4. irrelevant sidenote

5. backs down from the scumread but justifies his vote as pro-town (i hate to say LAMIST but)

6. buddies me with correct knowledge of my gameplay

none of these things are scummy in themselves but the combination of all 6 and this many words without things that i think actually advance the gamestate makes me read it as
posturing?
LAMISTy?
busywork?
whatever term you use for "scum trying to act like town", that.

[Mathdino]

you're largely correct, yes

which is why i'm not really hammering down on that post. just explaining the gut feeling i got from it

i haven't really seen anything from him i townread yet

but i also haven't seen anything scum-indicative based off of my meta knowledge of him

he's right that i'm paranoid but that paranoia is justified by the fact that the last time i townread scum-him he stayed in everyone's townpools until winning MyLo

still don't think he's a good D1 lynch; i'm getting better at reading him since that game

[Mathdino]

i can't wait for skitter to whack us all over the head with a book when she makes her catchup posts tomorrow

[Mathdino]

you and pintu are lowkey asking questions of a hypothetical scum-me who's trying to mislynch the jailkeeper

i obviously don't think that in reality but you're like arguing with the argument that i, as scum, WOULD make if someone claimed jailkeeper and wasn't CC'd by the other PRs

in reality the fact is that scum is likely to fakeclaim whatever unconfirmable PR they didn't pick, and if that happens to be jailkeeper, they'll go with that just to out the other PRs

[Mathdino]

Do you find mohabs garbage posts alignment indicative in some way

Not really, sadly.

Do *you* find them AI?

i um
i actually uh
find them pretty townish
i just don't really wanna go into that right now
i'm kind of embarrassed to townread garbageposting tbh

Imo the only thing townish about skitters iso (things I don't think she would fake) is her first post
I want to townread her
But skittering isn't alignment indicative

I know that responding to your first post would be hard for scum!me. You know that responding to your first post would be hard for scum!me. The fact that I did it is therefore moot and NAI is a stupid reason to find townish.

Why are you prioritizing sorting me?

wait what?
i think you were trying to say something but ended up saying another thing...
please rephrase this entire first paragraph

i think you're a good player to work with so sorting you would be more pro-town than sorting, say, mohab

[Mathdino]

- i think what you're seeing is the effect of an unusual gamestate on me. i can self-meta on that if you want but tl;dr it's hard to go full mathdino on people when 1/3 of the game hasn't posted much and another 1/3 of the game isn't exactly going to give us a smoking gun if they're scum. i have the reads that i have. everyone's sheeped me so i don't really have to argue with anyone lol

- yeah but if you were in my position would you want to encourage mohab's posting though
i'm not always entirely open about my reads on D1
i'm well aware of the influence my reads have on others
case in point: over 2/3 of the playerlist has parroted my townreads thus far

- uhhhh
so are you trying to argue that anything town-indicative for you is NAI because scum-you would be trying to fake town-you
i get the feeling that pursuing this line of discussion is going to barrel us both down WIFOM city

[Mathdino]

I didn't interpret that as having anything to do with a scumread on me
Lowkey think a couple people have a heightened expectation of my play generated from seeing me replace into a game with like 50 pages of content already

I will admit that I specifically targeted skitter with my opening on the basis that scum her would have a hard time responding though

[Mathdino]

gonna need help reading ofrhz (i have also been spelling his name wrong the whole time fucking lol) from 1859ers

i'm pretty sold by sunshine's argument in a vacuum but sunshine obviously lacks the experience that 5 other players have with him

also i don't really feel like defending sunshine against 1 or 2 people who are effectively nullreading him

tl;dr the vast majority of his ISO would be very difficult for scum to fake, the nuance in the posts is incredible (even when i don't agree with the conclusions)
the last post is the nail in the... coffin...? of that townread

Edit: you're probably not the one i'd be trying to pocket, skitter. not after MKUltra

[Mathdino]

skitter30: I was waiting to give a read on her entrance because I was modding town-skitter. I know nothing of skitter's towngame, but I'm seeing almost exactly the same playstyle, the same genuineness in her reads, the same pushiness with a "hit you over the head with this case every post I make". 195 fucking REEKS multiball-town. Honestly likely to get NK'd anyway. Should post a full reads list at some point.

i mean i don't think this was awful because as multiball scum i was essentially trying to scumhunt the other scumteam and this read was correct in the end

but yeah in scumgames i generally profile players that i think are and aren't pocketable (i'm on record for doing this)

skitter30 is probably the last person on that list among everyone in this game

[Mathdino]

Yeah that was a gross read on me tbh.

yoooo

it was how i communicated it, not the logic itself

it was right! i also correctly lockscumread one of the scum

i was legitimately trying to scumhunt there

i just act different when i'm scum i guess

guys pls help with ofrhz though

Edit: that's why i didn't/don't really wanna talk about my mohab read lol

Edit2: got it thanks

[Mathdino]

- i trust NSG and skitter30 the most to read this guy out of the playerlist, will double check my read by their ISO
- wow NSG is scumreading him but is either not explaining or has shit reasons, got it
- skitter30 doesn't really look like she's scumreading him, good

...i'm on record for seeing you as a good player lol

also i think that's a perfectly valid reason to scumread someone. it's how i've caught scum-NSG 100% of the time lol

keeping vote on draynth because UTTERLY BAMBOOZLED but definitely willing to wagon ofrhz

[Mathdino]

i'm reading more of AP's posts than sunshine/ofrhz's

down with lynching draynth though

[Mathdino]

"you're not obvtown yet even though you're usually obvtown as town"
is a valid reason for voting someone IMO

it's actually currently the case being used against me, haha

would lynch: Draynth, UglyDuck, ofrhz

[Mathdino]

@math:

2. Mohab feels kinda lynchbaity to me? Like if he's town he's where I'd expect scum to be pushing for a mislynch, and he did indeed get up to like L-2 with little resistance. That's why I'm kinda suspicious of people calling him a pl, like you did.

Can you address this? This is where some of the scumvibes are coming from.

what is there to address? you didn't ask me a question and i largely agree with this sentiment
i called out AP's vote when it happened too
if you're suspicious of me saying i'd be willing to policy lynch him, idk what to tell you other than "you should really get to know my playstyle better"
i didn't like his play enough and i didn't have any other scumreads to really justify moving off that vote at the time lol

i don't see why i'm the one that you're barreling after for the mohab wagon or why i need to address this

[Mathdino]

sigh

i don't wanna 1v1 you on D1 skitter

you're not in my townpool and this is unlikely to end well for either of us or the gamestate, you know that

can you give a basic reads list

if you want me to respond to your case i will but it's basically 60% "lack of knowledge of math's playstyle" and 40% "i saw him as scum once and he did [x] [y] and [z]"

[Mathdino]

- what have i handwaved away other than your scumread on me
like you're not being a VI about it, i'm not gonna get all confrontational
but me handwaving well-reasoned scumreads is a strategy i picked up from my towngame and then applied to my scumgame
you haven't seen me under any pressure as town because i always try to clear myself as town as fast as possible in most games

- i was scum in that game for my tone, not for my content. that's why i'm telling you that read on you wasn't some kind of smoking gun in itself. again,

it was a correct read

, i was legitimately scumhunting, but the way i presented everything made me awkward scum.

- eek that reads list is worrisome

[Mathdino]

i am

kinda bored and kinda wanna just lynch in PoE until we win

7 townreads is enough to break the game

meaning 4 townreads that aren't PRs is enough to break the game

[Mathdino]

nah

looks like he hasn't played in a while

i could do a metadive but i'm also lazy and meta changes

[Mathdino]

His sr on me reminds me of when certain people have replaced into games and read my iso and been like l0lscum

A few of his other reads were pretty bad but it feels playstyle/maybe old site meta driven and awkward more than guarded

Maybe I'm predisposed to giving him slack because we're sitecat buds/twins?? I need a couple of checks on my take here.

my SR is this:

1. you have not towntold, so you're in my PoE pool

2. you have one scummy post

has nothing to do with an ISO or some overall impression, nor is it something pushable/something that i would actually want to push right now

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Scioness

find scum or die

[Mathdino]

hard to say. bad gut feeling from the reads list

top townread is someone literally everyone agrees on

second top townread is the other semi-experienced player who's constantly talking about paranoia of me

then the 2 slots that have been fighting each other for a while (skitter doesn't seem to be commenting on this apparent TvT)

scioness is a lazy read and i'm actually starting to think sci is town
AP/draynth is low hanging fruit that doesn't look like low hanging fruit

and i'm a dangerous slot to scum

[Mathdino]

has 0 to do with her vote on oxy, her vote on oxy is townish

bad news is i don't think i know how to play the game if nobody is aggressively engaging me from the start

has everything to do with this post

scioness is 110% lockscum guys, lynch this with fire if she can't serve us scum on a silver platter within the next 30 minutes

[Mathdino]

you have 8 minutes

[Mathdino]

also what do i do with ap? i don't even know what he is roleplaying.

this is serious question.

watch Austin Powers

[Mathdino]

also what do i do with ap? i don't even know what he is roleplaying.

this is serious question.

watch Austin Powers

are you telling me if I don't watch Austin Powers I won't be able to sort him?

this post might be funnier than anything AP has posted

[Mathdino]

gonna need help reading ofrhz (i have also been spelling his name wrong the whole time fucking lol) from 1859ers

i'm pretty sold by sunshine's argument in a vacuum

but sunshine obviously lacks the experience that 5 other players have with him

note: I'm in kind of a weird place in terms of what pages I've read and what I haven't. I'll be all caught up by tonight.

Math: Can you clarify for me what you meant by the bold? Which argument were you referring to?

i mean that if ofrhz had anyone else's name attached to him, i'd be voting him right now sheeping sunshine. "a vacuum" just means "pretending that other games don't exist"

the problem is sunshine and i both lack the firsthand experience with ofrhz that 5 other players have, and i want that read to be backed up by that experience

- I see Oxy has toned down the LAMIST the game. town++ lmao

Why do you find this town-indicative for him?

Trying to not do things that would get him hard-tunneled for the wrong reasons is pro town. His playstyle has definitely changed, and it

could

be scum looking to not stick out as much, but this change is for the better

wat
it's not oxy's responsibility if he's town to stop doing things that people scumread him for
those scumreads were bad in the first place
do you think he as scum would choose to do the LAMISTy stuff all over again?
what about the LAMISTiness makes him MORE likely to be town than scum? what about it is something scum wouldn't do?

[Mathdino]

scum!oxy is more likely to, straight up
town!oxy's job is to find scum, not to be townread
that said i believe he's town for other reasons
and you're right that is a scum trait for most players
some players rewrite their posts over and over by default though
NSG is a prime example of this

[Mathdino]

the fuck

*I*

still haven't skimmed 1859 and i played it

[Mathdino]

scioness is town btw

there's scum in the 3 ducks guaranteed

i kinda wanna leave my vote here to act as a passive cattle prod but

VOTE: ofrhz

[Mathdino]

good ruru saw the same thing i did

ruru is locktown for eternity guys, treat her like you should've treated oxy last game

let's wagon some fuckin ducks

[Mathdino]

good vote

for anyone who's wondering, pintu is locktown because scum-him notices that i hardpush VIs who tunnel me to oblivion based on Open 714

he doesn't make the same mistake as Drixx, TheGoldenParadox, pintu-back-then, etc

skitter on the other hand is far less likely to be intimidated which is why i'm very ???? about her

in fact i think it's more likely scum-skitter is forced to discredit/reduce the control i have over gamestates because gamesolving etc etc

the rest of the newbies from 1859 would probably stay out of my way as scum (also partially why oxy is likely town. scum-him should be buddying me about now since i'm hard townreading him)

[Mathdino]

Lists in no particular order
Town reads: {The Worst, Sunshine13, Pinturicchio, Ruru}
Lynch pool: {Draynth, UglyDuck, Skitter30, Scioness Sajj}

I need a little bit more from Ofrhz to confirm my town lean.

@mathdino
You can conduct.

You just can't be in the orchestra, yet.

p.edit It's poe. It is (player list) - (town reads) - (people I don't want to lynch D1 for reasons)

Pin is doing a couple of things that would add up to a huge wifom play when considered in the context of the game a bunch of us just finished.

That's possible, but I don't think it's probable.

scum-oxy townreads me here. he knows he can't mislynch me.

he only later on started hard townreading me and that was for reasons unrelated to the early game

early game is a gold mine for reads uninfluenced by the observer effect imo

[Mathdino]

meh yeah you could be right i guess looking over his ISO

my townreads probably go something like

ruru --> Sunshine --> pintu --> Oxy --> Scioness

Edit: oh wow i love it when people talk about me

[Mathdino]

does anyone wanna help me figure out if uglyduck is getting bussed or if he's the designated mislynch

[Mathdino]

Skitter you know I get sorted by the NK more than any other player in this game
I just don't understand how you think this is a worthwhile use of your time
Outside of like
Talking enough to get townread

[Mathdino]

-> Scum!you is a dangerous slot to town

How the hell do you actually believe this

[Mathdino]

I'm dangerous because of the opportunity cost of me not being town in any given game
But I'm very well known to be better at town than scum

[Mathdino]

so guys

while i would love to nail skitterscum off of cogdiss (i.e. "she slipped that she knows dino is town")

i don't believe that's actually a scumtell, and the majority of the time i've seen people try to nail players off this, they flip town

sometimes town doesn't think about what they're saying or what their narrative is

skitter's meta-analysis of me is actually a little bit townish

i think skitter also gets sorted by the NK if not cop-checked fwiw

[Mathdino]

AP, i'm not going to confbias myself, sorry

i have no doubt that whatever scumteam you have in mind is consistent (that is there's probably nothing ruling it out)

but that doesn't mean i want to tunnel that specific team

[Mathdino]

while i disagree with the cogdiss argument

i really am starting to feel like skitter is scum here :/

could use a cop guilty on her.

Edit: guys stop talking about whether or not you're willing to be lynched/shot

Edit2: @AP: maybe if you did a dance or something

Edit3: ruru get your vote the fuck off yourself

[Mathdino]

so i assume you're in the camp of "uglyduck is getting bussed"

cool cool

total sidenote: can we appreciate that austin powers was basically created to be james bond but worse in every way
yet despite how much of a bumbling fool he is
even austin powers universally respects consent in a way that no incarnation of james bond ever could
i really love austin powers

[Mathdino]

Yessss affectionate well executed satire > everything else

i honestly feel like the multiple scenes where austin powers explicitly respects consent was the single most hard-hitting/incisive part of the satire

20th century james bond is kind of a massive dick

[Mathdino]

meh AP's reads are decent with the exception of ruru which i can accept as the token "terrible read"

scum in the ducks, vote one of the ducks, let's go

also TW these past 2 pages has screamed scum-TW to me not gonna lie

[Mathdino]

they are all my scumreads

[Mathdino]

@Math, actually why are you scumreading me again? PoE?

-> @math, 527 - assuming the premise of scum in the ducks, why'd you vote ofrhz there, and not, say, tw or ud?

i will admit i think i have too many townreads right now
goes something like

ruru
Sunshine
pintu
Scioness
Oxy
AP/Mohab

leaving {Draynth, ofrhz, skitter, TW, UglyDuck}

pretty sure one scum slipped by me so i'll recalibrate when we get a scumflip but unless the team is literally Draynth/skitter, there MUST be scum in the ducks

anyway skitter is useful i guess if she stops tunneling me, draynth i could lynch but that feels like the lazy way to send off D1, same with uglyduck (also scum seems to be voting/scumreading uglyduck so i'm cautious there), and TW is pro-town/readable enough as scum and i can probably get him to bus down the line if it comes to that

i voted ofrhz because there's an actual case on him as detailed by sunshine

and because multiple people have noted that he's different from 1859

i stand by this vote as something i'm... probably 45% confident in

lynch ofrhz let's go

[Mathdino]

i forgot you guys were the hyper cautious newbies

let's not run this to deadline guys

setting up vote counter in a second

[Mathdino]

thinking i agree with skitter on AP actually

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

priorVCNumber=0
url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=75972
playerList=AP{Austin Powers},Mathdino,the worst{Duck},Draynth,Sunshine13,UglyDuck,Mohab500,Oxy,skitter30,pinturicchio,Scioness Sajj,ofrhz,ruru
replacementList=
moderatorNames=brassherald
dayStartNumbers=2
cleanDay=true
deadline=2018-04-30 16:45:00 -4.00
deadList=
voteOverrides=

Code: Select all

[spoiler=Day 1][/spoiler]

Edit: no i can't, i'm sheeping oxy/scioness
i literally did not read ofrhz's ISO (or most of his posts) that game
i'm not the best person to be making the meta-case, my knowledge will be effectively equivalent to had i not played the game at all

I took the code that's here and pasted it in Post 0, by the way. I can remember that number more easily.

[Mathdino]

Votecount 1.LYNCH THE DUCKS

UglyDuck(3)

~ pinturicchio(31), ofrhz(69), the worst(141)

ofrhz(2)

~ UglyDuck(12), Mathdino(103)

the worst(1)

~ Draynth(5)

ruru(1)

~ AP(56)

Oxy(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(33)

Mohab500(1)

~ Oxy(66)

AP(1)

~ ruru(55)


Not Voting (3): Sunshine13(27), Mohab500(44), skitter30(36)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-30 16:45:00)

what a pretty votecount

all our ducks are in a row

[Mathdino]

AP, we're never lynching ruru today
your reads are decent but not on ruru

scioness, we're not lynching oxy today
i know you're probably annoyed at him after last game and shit but he IS a useful player to have around and imo he IS easy to read if you know how

oxy, mohab can just get vigshot
in fact
HURT: Mohab
please feel free to vote on vigging mohab

ruru, AP is a bad lynch and you're not gonna get the traction. he's likely just wrong town

sunshine/mohab/skitter why tf are you not voting anyone
i'm sheeping you sunshine get on ofrhz

[Mathdino]

Why is AP town to you Math

i'm not married enough to that townread to go in depth on this

basically just a lot of #goodposting

[Mathdino]

@Dino: Could you skim read the game from the beginning with my scum team/suspects in mind and tell me if you see what I see?

P-edit:

@ofrhz: Check the opening 2-3 pages.. better yet, ISO TW vs ruru. I think you will see it clearer that way.

Are you willing to be lynched if I flip green?

Yes. I'd be the Vig shot instead of UD even to save the town a mislynch if you flip green. Would you please vote yourself in return?

OK.. movie is over and I couldn't sleep instantly as I kept thinking about the game, so here's another try (that I somehow know I'll regret)

What if ruru didn't even mean TW when she said there was one Duck? What if she didn't look at the avatars and was referring to UD when TW incidentally and unintentionally threw her a life line thinking she was talking about him?

The problem here is it seemed like TW was confident it was about him, and it looks like the two have played together before that it's hard to believe she didn't take notice of his avatar.

It also doesn't explain why HE would interrupt her wagoning. I could see scum.her seeing a wagon being built on a townie and deciding to avoid it, but I don't see why town.TW would interrupt a wagon (and a relatively small one, mind you) on ruru.

these posts are difficult for scum to fake

he seems to have a large town-motivated thought process that he's primarily not sharing in full because loleplaying

tip of the iceberg, basically

[Mathdino]

I believe Sunshine is now townleaning me.

it's a good thing i haven't read your 1v1 since the initial case so i can just pretend he's not

sigh i'll read it tomorrow though

[Mathdino]

nope i don't see it at all

is it because i'm not townreading you

it's probably because i'm not townreading you

[Mathdino]

I'm town, who all is scum

[Mathdino]

Do you think he's scum misrepping you or just kinda a tool? @UD

neither? his opinions were condescending but he landed on me not being skum, so IDK how he could be lining that up for a mislynch. more importantly if the answer to this question actually matters to you, you should probably spend less time talking and more time reading the game.

This is why tw is scum for anyone wondering

Tfw you know someone is scum but you don't really feel like lynching them

Whoops

[Mathdino]

You have to be aware you're playing your scumgame here
It's whatever, I can save it for d2

Edit: points toward the ugly getting bussed theory then

[Mathdino]

wtf is the me getting bussed theory everyone keeps mentioning?

Welcome to the scumteam. It consists of me, you, and TW.

OK this is probably not the scumteam

Edit: I have a couple theories that would make you town and you're a pretty risky potential mislynch

[Mathdino]

Everyone needs to stop asking to be lynched this game what the fuck is wrong with guys

Does anyone wanna just compromise and lollynch Draynth

[Mathdino]

Votecount 1.NO DUCKS LEFT TO GIVE

UglyDuck(3)

~ pinturicchio(50), ofrhz(83), AP(58)

ofrhz(3)

~ UglyDuck(20), Mathdino(114), Oxy(104)

the worst(1)

~ Draynth(25)

Oxy(1)

~ Scioness Sajj(36)

Mathdino(1)

~ the worst(187)

AP(1)

~ ruru(57)


Not Voting (3): Sunshine13(27), Mohab500(46), skitter30(36)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2018-04-30 16:45:00)

Please note that this is not an official vote count, and is incorrect as to Draynth's vote. Do not tell the moderator about this, he already knows.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: UglyDuck

i feel better about this one at this point

[Mathdino]

...just shoot mohab it's not that hard

although shooting ofrhz might make more sense

god why did so many people ask to be lynched lol
HURT: ofrhz
this is more likely to hit scum and more likely to reduce paranoia/gamesolve even if town

[Mathdino]

oh hahahaha i think i might know who AP is

i won't out them if i figure it out for sure though

[Mathdino]

...just shoot mohab it's not that hard

although shooting ofrhz might make more sense

god why did so many people ask to be lynched lol
HURT: ofrhz
this is more likely to hit scum and more likely to reduce paranoia/gamesolve even if town

Or put Ugly on L-1, wait for the claim and if he claims VT he gets shot? I know a game where this was optimal

this strategy doesn't work if there's no vig

when there's for sure a vig, you run up 2 people in succession

when there isn't, you lynch your top scumread (to make sure they die) and hypothetically shoot your second top

[Mathdino]

pintu is locktown by setup spec

argued "why would scum pick a vig with mathdino in the game" when pintu is the only one in this game aware of my vig-directing strategy

so pintu is the only one here who would avoid picking vig as scum, yet here he assumes there's a vig already

[Mathdino]

Ummmmmmm

what's up

[Mathdino]

ruru, scioness is also just town

if we get a scumflip between ofrhz/TW we can also confirm scioness is town by that logic

also i'm starting to think TW is town so there's definitely a scumread that slipped by me

could be oxy but for now this solidifies scum in {UglyDuck, Draynth}

[Mathdino]

ruru, scioness is also just town

if we get a scumflip between ofrhz/TW we can also confirm scioness is town by that logic

also i'm starting to think TW is town so there's definitely a scumread that slipped by me

could be oxy but for now this solidifies scum in {UglyDuck, Draynth}

How do you feel about Oxy's....... "analysis" because it's starting to scare the fuck out of me

pretty townish, otherwise not that interesting

vote for shooting ofrhz pls

Edit: wow yeah vig playing hero is potentially the most anti-town idea possible

[Mathdino]

TW i'm on record for using this strategy elsewhere, don't give me that shit

that's like arguing that lynches are bad because loud and charismatic scum can steer the lynch

the fact is that the group is better than the one at finding scum

people who retreat into themselves and then play hero with the vigshot almost always end up shooting
- players who are town and would never be lynched
- power roles

i've played/seen games where vigs have shot:
- me for figuring out all the PRs
- the cop
- the doctor
- other vigs
- my top townread
- the town leader
- someone the bodyguard was protecting

towns are shit
vigs are anti-town by default
the only way to change that is to crowdsource vig shots

[Mathdino]

I'm suddenly feeling "randomlynching in lovers doesnt work" level stupid

I mean the only people who claimed that were scum so

[Mathdino]

@Dino correct me if I'm wrong, but since there's a chance of a Vig existance, then how do we evade him shooting a PR? Should the designated vigkill claim or what?

That's part of the point of voting I think

[Mathdino]

Don't fall into the trap of thinking scum is on every wagon
UglyDuck could definitely be a radioactive wagon for scum

[Mathdino]

I haven't critically read any if his posts these last couple pages do I guess we'll have to see
Scum is good this game. It's gonna be tough.

[Mathdino]

Very seriously consideriny townblocking the entire duckpool.

Are you literally doing this because it's my lynchpool
Because if so you're seriously wasting the day away in terms of generating your reads

[Mathdino]

okay fine
VOTE: Draynth
we have to lynch SOMEONE

i have way too many goddamn townreads honestly

[Mathdino]

ruru
pintu
Sunshine
Scioness
Oxy
AP
Mohab
TW
skitter30
ofrhz
UglyDuck
Draynth

i'm not explaining these all because my reads are not consistent with the current gamestate

it doesn't add up

[Mathdino]

i'm pretty sure NSG is on the replacement list right now so mohab replacing out would be hilariously pro-town

[Mathdino]

yo TW why would i not just pocket you as scum knowing that you have a tendency to omgus from newbie 1849

your perception of my scum strategy is just... not a good one

go read my scum threads to see my categorisation of players and who i try/don't try to pocket

[Mathdino]

i'm not this invested in getting your singular vote off me

do what i do

go to my profile

ctrl+F "topics"

click all the ones that are scum/mafia PTs rather than dead threads/mod threads

profit

[Mathdino]

Ya but I am lazy

I'll get to it, who's better to vote?

no idea, you tell me

[Mathdino]

idk i'm townreading oxy but not like righteously so
i'd be raising hell if y'all were going after pintu/ruru etc but in this situation i just feel sickeningly ambivalent
i haven't done my ISOs of people yet, will get to that probably next couple IRL days

it is a bit weird that people get more and more comfortable with voting oxy the further he drops down my town list/the longer he spends not in my townbloc

[Mathdino]

it is a bit weird that people get more and more comfortable with voting oxy the further he drops down my town list/the longer he spends not in my townbloc

What part of this is weird to you?

imagine for a second that you're mathdino and you're paranoid of how much everyone listens to my reads and how multiple scumteams have explicitly stated their scum strategy in PTs as "sheep mathdino when he's wrong, let him lead town off a cliff"

[Mathdino]

Well these last few pages were uh
Awful
Lol
I'll iso oxy later and see what I can bring

[Mathdino]

Actually I have a question for the more experienced players here

I feel like TW and skitter both tried to derail the vig thing a bit

Is this scum-indicative or do town players just often disagree with it?

towns are bad and when they hear optimising strategies they think "i'm being manipulated into doing something i've never done before" and reject it offhand

THAT SAID it's something i see more often than random from scum

so i would call it slightly scum-indicative, which is consistent with neither of them being a townread for me haha

[Mathdino]

guys i'm 100% on NSG across over a dozen games and my word says she's a serial killer right now

[Mathdino]

Do you also think it is scum-indicative for those two players in particular?

TW's job as scum is to push back against my control when i'm right and to defer to me when i'm wrong

skitter, idk

and i'm loling at all of NSG's posts this is good shit

[Mathdino]

this sounds strangely familiar.

NSG i command thee to deliver me scum

try not to tunnel town and you should be good

i'm townreading scum right now and it's really annoying

Edit: i'm gonna go through scioness's ISO and find the quotes that i think are town
can you tell me why i'm fucking wrong

Edit2: dude you're not banned from games after replacing out lol
just don't post

[Mathdino]

page 18 and got tired

bad news is i don't think i know how to play the game if nobody is aggressively engaging me from the start

now that i think about it i think this is the only post i explicitly townread

[Mathdino]

i'm unprepared to read scioness without understanding the difference between her towngame and her scumgame

my northside pal was able to identify the difference easily, so clearly there IS something, it's just not within my range right now to see it

that said her recent posting wasn't scummy so she's not currently my top scumspect

NSG i literally said this earlier in the game lol

[Mathdino]

mith's theoretically-based argument on what's best for towns with vigs is analogous to a government being full of ivy leaguers who never worked a min wage job arguing what's best for the masses

mith has theory. theory is fine and all but the question is "what's your model"
answer: random lynching/random scumreads

in reality, vigs are stupid and shoot scum less than random and shoot power roles more than random
this is the safe plan imo and i'm betting his calculations would reflect that if he accounted for the fact that PRs get scumread significantly more than random

[Mathdino]

Is purely random shot even better if you account for PR claims at V-1? I would be surprised

And it must be really hard to model the EV of shooting PRs, so I find the "calculate the EV" thing a bit questionable

well okay so the reason random vigging > random lynching is because the vig will categorically not shoot themselves
vig shoots from a pool of P-1 while lynches happen from a pool of P

that said, it's a 2-shot vig. if we end up lynchvigging the vig, they'll just claim VT, be like "oh woe is me y u do this, goodbye sweet prince", vig someone else, be obviously vig tomorrow, and then shoot someone else on N2 as they get killed themselves

so voting on who to vig also categorically cannot hit the vig.

the vig functionally gives us 1 extra lynch (assuming they shoot twice) that can never hit themselves

[Mathdino]

Can confirm am uninterested in defending myself to skitter
This is why I tried to conf myself as town last game
It's an incredible hit to teamwork abilities to be tunneled

[Mathdino]

TW i have almost no memory of your play in 1841 outside of "was unaware that daytalk wasn't a thing"
if i claimed that my read on you was anything more than that in lylo i was BSing

todo list for this game still involves doing actual ISOs, i'm a bit backed up in sitewide work though

[Mathdino]

i mean i'm not gonna be able to read NSG if she does the LEFT SHIFT GIMMICK all game

i get it though

she tends to get annoyed at the fact that she's literally the only player that i continually claim this reading ability for, as a go-to example of a player i'm 100% on

preliminarily i'd say that NSG was probably not wrong on locktowning mohab out of game, and she's probably not lying about that unless she specifically made that entrance to fuck with me (i.e. she lowkey copied my replace-in entrances and might be fishing for a townread from me in particular)

sunshine lacking a meta is a good point
could just be hilariously good scum
unlikely but possible?

[Mathdino]

okay you know what there are certain people that are obviously not getting lynched today due to being universally townread

but there are some slots that need sorting to even allow this game to function

i need to re-acclimate myself to skitter's meta. i was searching for specific towntells last game to see if scum-her could fake it. i never ended up getting a sense of her general playstyle differences.

there are certain arguments i see her making here that in general i don't think scum-her tries. arguing i'm scum by meta over and over and over doesn't seem like a scum-skitter thing to do (it is however a scum-TW thing to do, this isn't a universal thing).

so will calibrate for that behaviour

i agree with a lot of your reads list but fuck me up because TW and skitter might both be town and then we're back at square 1

[Mathdino]

MKUltra is a game that i keep forgetting i played in at all
but it was the first time i actually played with skitter. it occurred while i was modding skitter in Open 711: Stack The Deck

here is the debrief from my POV
- my good dude Impede asks me to hydra (2 players share an account)
- i, having a lapse in judgment, say yes
- we sign up for a multiball (2 scumteams) game (because i wouldn't play multiball under Mathdino lol)
- we roll scum with a guy who we know is much better at town, i feel like dying, multiball is horrible. i did some writeups in the scum PT.
- we both enter super awkwardly. he's awkward in general. my scumgame was super out of practice so i went way LAMIST.
- i lurk it out because i assume he's got it covered (i would've done this as town too probably). he does not have it covered. he replaces out a few days later. i in turn replace out because i wouldn't have signed up alone.
- i do a whole "i want my successor to have good reads" thing so i post a full on reads list. i figure out skitter is town partially by modding her. i proceed to phrase this read horribly.
- i get replaced by a troll and skitter lynches the slot down the line.

tl;dr i scummed up a game i didn't really want to play in the first place
skitter thus thinks she knows and can recognise my scumgame
i will admit this happens a lot to people who first experience scum-me and are like the only ones who catch it -- they start scumreading me in all future games because they notice playstyle tells rather than alignment tells

anyway no, we've never talked about that game outside of this game and maybe 1859 if it was ever brought up

[Mathdino]

man oxy why are your reads identical to mine

i don't want to lynch you for being hypothetically good lol

but this is somewhat uncomfortable

[Mathdino]

tfw you don't like it when people townread you because it means you're easy to read

i've come to realise there's a very specific way that people make bad townreads on me as scum

MathDino - I like his reasoning for scumreading TW, seems to be thinking about the game in a logical fashion.

and this guy right here basically did it

scum doesn't like to get on my radar but they also don't like to put some goddamn effort into their townreads on me
so they throw away a line about my effort being alignment indicative

the entirety of 401 is pretty bad tbh

the question is of course whether it's within his townrange to make shit surface level reads lists

...and the answer will come when i stop being lazy and actually do all the metadives i promised

[Mathdino]

okay so we vig ofrhz for saying he'd self-vote at L-1
this effectively claims VT and fucks up potential VCA
remember that he witnessed the falls of drixx and skitter, and me telling skitter she spewed too much
i think town-him... idk learns the lesson second-hand?

while scum-him isn't careful about spewing/not spewing his role

so ofrhz is a high equity vigshot

the only people i can then actually see getting lynched today are:
{Draynth, UglyDuck, Oxy, Scioness}
i'm gonna sheep NSG's read on scioness unless NSG is scum
outside of that i'm still super down with lynching draynth

[Mathdino]

...and the answer will come when i stop being lazy and actually do all the metadives i promised

is this all a satire on my draynth read? where i talk about it being silly for scum to commit to doing extra reading that they aren't actually going to do?

no this is a satire on myself

that's an interesting general tell though (committing to doing something and then failing to follow through)

i do not know how indicative it is in practice of either alignment

but that is definitely something i see often in games and i should get a handle on that

[Mathdino]

...and the answer will come when i stop being lazy and actually do all the metadives i promised

is this all a satire on my draynth read? where i talk about it being silly for scum to commit to doing extra reading that they aren't actually going to do?

What is the intention of this question

What is the intention of this question

[Mathdino]

...and the answer will come when i stop being lazy and actually do all the metadives i promised

is this all a satire on my draynth read? where i talk about it being silly for scum to commit to doing extra reading that they aren't actually going to do?

What is the intention of this question

What is the intention of this question

Gauging the intention of his question--what is the intention of this question?

Gauging the intention of your question--what is the intention of this question?

[Mathdino]

@math can you talk about your oxy read?
ANd give me a tldr why you were/are scumreading me?

i feel like i've explained a lot of my oxy read? a lot of the routes/avenues he's been taking don't seem like ones scum would take
ctrl+F my ISO for "oxy"
he's on my list of people to ISO

for you?
- PoE. nothing so far seems out of your scumrange
- your read on me is pretty bad and feels like someone wrestling control of the gamestate without pushing me hard enough to be suicidal

[Mathdino]

I basically think the opposoite, that he saw softing vt by mistake put me in the lynchpool for at least somewhat mechanical reasons, and I feel ike scum would be more survivalistic: Like not say they'd self-vote at L-1, and like, not be cool wiht being in a vig-pool, and like, not soft VT when that would put them in the lynchpool.

Like I think scum would try to avoid doing things they know this playerlist would put them in a vig/lynch pool over.

except that exact behaviour from you is what put you as a locktownread for me because i determined it was outside of your scumrange

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Scioness

alright guys let's put our money where our mouths are

[Mathdino]

> prefers UD lynch over Scioness

> Mathdino votes Scioness

tfw

> my townreads have more scum-indicative data on scioness

>

tfw

[Mathdino]

m'bad

*people who have more experience with scioness than i do have more scum indicative data on scioness than uglyduck

Edit: i might be talking out of my ass actually
tfw mathdino is a blatant liar

i'm bored of this game and would like a flip
i was asked why i was townreading scioness and the answer is that there was a single post she made that i thought was townish (the "idk how to play this game while not under pressure")

that is
not a good reason for a townread

Edit: stop posting and i might answer your questions lol

[Mathdino]

Oh, I did want to ask if math is likely to bus a scumbuddy on d1 in a game like this.

based on my own history:

A. i'm scum with creature or other "most readable players onsite"

B. i'm scum with NSG or other "players mathdino should never get wrong"

C. i have an excuse to policy lynch my scumbuddy

otherwise i just don't see much value in bussing tbh

[Mathdino]

In retrospect, pintu reaching out to work with me was really townie. I don't see why that comes from scum!pintu but there is a thing I can't talk about holding me back ever so slightly.

I want you to tell everyone here what's that "thing I can't talk about", please

yeah pls no

[Mathdino]

do i look like a dancing monkey

you know me from tit for tat

pushing me is just gonna get me to argue with you some more about your read being bad (cough paradox cough)

town-Dino is not only worse mislynched on D1 than any other day but also doesn't live to endgame unless PRs literally claim

who else gets NK'd in this gamestate my good dude

[Mathdino]

HOT TAKE: town is scumreading me and scum is afraid to talk about a definitive read on me

[Mathdino]

HOT TAKE: town is scumreading me and scum is afraid to talk about a definitive read on me

I'VE BEEN WONDERING IF THIS IS HAPPENING

dance for me duckling

list all the players who continually throw potshots at my alignment (not my ability/trusthworthiness but my alignment)

let's see what the gamestate looks like if they're all town

[Mathdino]

Math rate your confidence this game

0 vibing town loss
7 average
10 you think you have all the scum locked down

these are all on different scales

i currently have shit reads, i'm not at a place like 1859 where i can say "sheep me after i die guys"

my only good reads are on ruru and pintu

so in the sense that i have no idea what i'm doing, i'm not confident at all

that said, i believe that games where everyone knows each other have higher town winrates than games where no one knows each other

and given that this set of players had a town win before, i have no reason to think they can't do it again (with some luck re: who the power roles are)

i'd say probably 60% chance of town win this game, but i'm probably not gonna be the MVP until we start getting some flips

hence my utter boredom and request to get some flips up in here

[Mathdino]

{Scioness, UglyDuck, Draynth}
vig {ofrhz, Draynth}

[Mathdino]

draynth's read on me was lazy as shit

what luck that that literally produces my lynchpool though

NSG posts or perishes down the line. remember activity isn't alignment indicative but it's the only way to produce readable content from her. kinda wish i could give you guys a guide on how to read her lol
people always get it wrong after i die

anyway

{Draynth, UglyDuck, Scioness} vig {ofrhz}
sort AP after flips
sort NSG after posts

copcheck {TW, skitter, Sunshine}

gamesolved thanks

Edit: yeah you missed oxy
lynch him if associations look right and the game doesn't look solved down the line i guess

[Mathdino]

man, come on, ctrl+F his ISO for "math" or "dino" and tell me his progression on me is anything but lazy

he was open as a busywork kind of deal

pls don't tell me you're scum with him

[Mathdino]

Why do you townread urself math?

you know, i kinda sorta understand RC's whole "why do SEs keep tunneling me in all these games without understanding my meta"
but i'm also a completely different case so it's kind of lolworthy that i go under similar fire
RC gives people PTSD when he's scum

i:
A. am SIGNIFICANTLY better at town than scum, and all my scum wins since hiatus are due to utterly brain dead towns and mislynching my opposition

B. do not have good enough reads to say "go ahead and paranoia policy lynch me D1 and just sheep my reads when i flip town" (i would propose that kind of thing for RC or ellibereth for example)

like it's a matter of equity

my towngame only gets better as we go on while my scumgame only gets worse

i'll have a better townread on myself when we actually get some flips going

[Mathdino]

i mean the rest of your list was fine so i'm just surprised that your take on draynth is bad

he basically had 2 mentions of me that had content

1. math is town because effort

2. okay fine you miiiight be right *talks about something else*

[Mathdino]

DOES ANYONE ELSE THINK PROMISING THINGS AND NOT DELIVERING IS A SCUMTELL

#NOBAMBOOZLE

[Mathdino]

you guys realise that i gained the 100% NSG ability because she told me her scum meta and i just happened to keep on top of how her scumrange has expanded (hint: it hasn't expanded at the rate her townrange has)

as long as you don't fall into the activity tell trap it's not hard to figure out what kinds of posts she's incapable of making as scum

if she never makes any posts like that then she's just scum gg

my concern is that wagoning NSG tends to distract her from actually doing anything AI lol

[Mathdino]

you're okay compromising on scioness but not on draynth? i've given specific reasons that i think draynth's reads are scummy

[Mathdino]

the fact that town is capable of having shit reads on me doesn't mean it's not a scumtell

the behaviour is more likely to come from scum straight up

and who says he's not the designated nullscumread from the entire scumteam

if i were scum with him he'd be the designated bus imo

[Mathdino]

...i don't see why not?

i mean draynth as a wagon hasn't really taken off either

if draynth is scum his buddies are probably like "oh yeah that could be scum i guess" without really showing conviction

and they'll probably hop aboard if it becomes clear that he's getting lynched

[Mathdino]

Go ahead and answer lol I don't have the energy
I don't think ugly is following the game very closely

[Mathdino]

Oxy(4) ~ skitter30(62), the worst(310), Draynth(43), Sunshine13(38)

It's really hard to believe this doesn't have scum on it

[Mathdino]

Brass already set it up, you do it

[Mathdino]

i can confirm that scum-me would be bossing my partners around if i had daychat

[Mathdino]

wait why did you come to that conclusion and what did you misread

[Mathdino]

I am wording this shittily and not elaborating on purpose my prehistoric pal. Please wait.

approx when will you be able to elaborate

[Mathdino]

the behaviour is more likely to come from scum straight up

Is this trying to say that in an empiracal sense, you've found that this sort of read is more likely to come from scum than from town? Or that you just think that this sort of read is scummy?

and who says he's not the designated nullscumread from the entire scumteam

if i were scum with him he'd be the designated bus imo

Idk if he's a designated mislynch or if he's the designated bus. Either way, the gamestate indicates that scum's cool with it, which is why I don't like it right now.

- implying i use any tells that don't empirically work
i'm not an armchair mafia philosopher lol
scum tends to get lazy around me. that is fact.

- go look at the last votecount in which there are 2 counterwagons to draynth and tell me what about the gamestate or the votecount implies to you that scum is totally on board with this

[Mathdino]

Scum tends to nullscumread scum
And then push someone completely different

[Mathdino]

Oxy please don't ask leading questions it's annoying
Skitter in what universe is Draynth an easier lynch when literally no one is defending scioness
Sunshine stop trying to convince people they're scum, i literally dont end up reading those posts
Y'all do some more useful analysis than interrogation and gotchas pls

[Mathdino]

@Past-me:

Go ahead and answer lol I don't have the energy

you got it, present-me

1. Pick the worst possible roles. Jailkeeper, tracker, Vig probably. No cop because I'm a natural cop target.
2. Insist through the whole game that there's an innocent child because any scumteam that chooses otherwise is idiotic.
3. Neverbus my buddies so tracker/jailkeeper don't fuck us over.
4. Shoot all the PRs, potentially mislynch the 3rd one by arguing that there must be an innocent child out there and jailkeeper is an easy fakeclaim.
5. Once it becomes clear that scum didn't take innocent child, argue I'm conftown because I make mechanically correct decisions.

1 bad vigshot and 2 mislynches puts us in 7p or 8p lylo. Win this.

But then I rolled town whoops

I don't think ugly is following the game very closely

[Mathdino]

are we already getting to that part of the game that i don't really want to read

consolidate wagons, people

your options are draynth and scioness, and if you want to have shit reads, oxy

we're not lynching ofrhz because we're vigging him

This seems like an unbeatable situation - which makes me suspicious of whoever brought up the Vig (HURT) idea in the first place.

hello
that was me
i've set a precedent for doing it in another game
for which i caught flak because towns are dumb
voting on who to vig is neither anti-town nor scum-indicative
please do something useful

[Mathdino]

wait we have 3 days what the hell guys
this did not feel like a 62 page game

[Mathdino]

i'd rather not PM you given that it refers to this game

click on this link

copy paste "f=51&t=75972" into "thread shortened"
then type "0" for "postNumber"

mathblade wrote a guide somewhere in the MD

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: VoteCount Settings

priorVCNumber=0
url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=75972
playerList=AP{Austin Powers},Mathdino,the worst{Duck},Draynth,Sunshine13,UglyDuck,Mohab500,Oxy,skitter30,pinturicchio,Scioness Sajj,ofrhz,ruru
replacementList=Mohab500:northsidegal{nsg}
moderatorNames=brassherald
dayStartNumbers=2
cleanDay=true
deadline=2018-04-30 16:45:00 -4.00
deadList=
voteOverrides=

Code: Select all

[spoiler=Day 1][/spoiler]

that would be because you need to have properly formatted votecount settings with updated nightkills and daystarts in the thread that you're trying to scan

[Mathdino]

and I'm not one of the, count em, 4 people who have inadvertently claimed VT this game

*policy bloodlust intensifies*

i wouldn't be surprised if any 1859ers were bluffing to WIFOM their role but yeah the number of slots that have requested to be lynched is ridiculous

you're good with lynching draynth yeah?

[Mathdino]

wagon data, easy

someone doesn't have to post a lot in order to be an informationfull lynch

people just need to talk about them a lot

...and it's been 63 fucking pages, everyone's commented on him in some way

[Mathdino]

yes i am are you reading

[Mathdino]

i'm not going to answer questions that people can easily find in my ISO by ctrl+Fing the name in question

[Mathdino]

People are more often lynched for being right than killed for being right

[Mathdino]

Unless they're me
In which case they never get lynched
Unless they call 4/4 scum in 15p
In that case they get lynched by 8 townies

[Mathdino]

i would have more of a read if NSG actually decided to post

tinfoil theory is that NSG is purposefully not posting in this game for exactly that reason

i expect to die tonight.

[Mathdino]

do i have to respond to anything you post about me

it's just tedious at this rate

go metadive me or something idk