The Resistance #2 - 5P Game

[Irrelephant11]

Hello. Hmmm not sure on how I feel about you two being so gung-ho right off the bat. But also, round one is basically information-less. I'll wait for everyone to pop in before voting.

Also, I give the same warning to mafia games - don't expect more than a single post on weekends. Weekdays, though, I'm definitely here

Anyone here have any meta reads on each other that would influence this first vote? Who's a great liar, great town-tell-er, etc?

[Irrelephant11]

I mean, I've played the board game and I guess I agree? But also it feels unfair to hammer here with two missing players so like I said, I'll wait.

[Irrelephant11]

I'm gonna follow the town feels and go with door #2

VOTE: Mathdino, TheGoldenParadox

[Irrelephant11]

So I'm really pretty confident that BuJ/Ico has a scum and Math/TGP has a scum, based on the two scum probably not starting the game by saying "yay us two lets goooo" without having a daychat to agree to WIFOM the rest of us. Deciphering which is which is hard. BuJaber clearly wants to figure things out but I'm disagreeing with some of his conclusions? So that makes me lean toward bad feelings. But also Ico is just voting without much discussion. I think it's me, Math, and one of those two and I'll soon figure out which. Not voting until Ico and BuJ explain agreeing while scumreading each other and (more importantly) till TGP enters the conversation.

Yeah but with mafia there clues, associations, night actions.

If you could just imagine with me here.

What is the motivation for scum to vote yes for any 3 way mission they are not a part of?
If it's a success would you trust everyone in the mission?
Like a 3 way mission passing means you mechanically have to pick them again anyway for the next 3 man mission. So it just seems like you either get it right or you lose.

I guess we'll just have to play to the end and maybe I can see what happens. But really this reminds me a lot of the miss list game we played where there's a lot of wifom but even less info coz nobody dies and flips.

Anyway I want you and paradox to go again with me. Only way your mission goes is if icon and irrelephant vote with you. I can't see any reason why paradox would ever vote yes for a mission he isn't in.

VOTE: math, paradox and Buj

A) There's... definitely still clues, associations, and night actions. Scum know who the other is.
B) That's the definition of a scumslip, which also happens IRL. Could happen.
C) A three way mission passing

could

mean two scum went and failed to signal to each other. Picking up on in-game signaling seems possibly important here
D) Yeah, this game is mostly WIFOM that's what I enjoy about it

Also literally what is town about TGP

[Irrelephant11]

Ohhh gotcha, also, no. The point is to get three town points. I'm going on this mission as resistance, and any person you don't include in a mission you think of as spy - the only other viable choice being including both spies. Intentionally including just one person you think of as a spy will pretty much lose you the game, since there isn't enough time to ensure you definitely find the right one using PoE.

Also, you seem to be operating under the impression that the first mission says anything about anyone's alignment. Aside from how math looked towny in advance of the mission, the actual result of the first mission is basically a null tell for both the players who went. Yes, many players town read those two if they remain untested, but that's bad play. Of course spies pass that first mission, every time.

[Irrelephant11]

But what I'm saying is that the first mission is

literally null

.

We have the next four missions to figure out whatever we want. We do not have the previous mission to figure anything out, except for people's conversational tells.

Let's pretend for a minute that Ico and TGP are scum.

Math and TGP pass a mission.
Math, TGP, and you fail a mission.
Math and TGP pass a mission.

Like????
What has your strategy gained here, except putting you, the newcomer, in a bad light, and helping TGP get on every mission till the end?

So my suggestion:

First mission doesn't matter.
Second mission, play the three towniest players. A pass is

amazing

, because now scum HAVE to 1v1 round 3. A fail is fine-ish, because now you've very likely got two town players who have narrowed down their POVs to two 1v1s. Of course, the scum will also pretend they've got that POV, but that's the WIFOM of it all.

[Irrelephant11]

Also a second round mission pass is one of the best ways for town to win, period.

Still not sure which of BuJaber and Ico is resistance, and starting to wonder if maybe TGP really is resistance....

[Irrelephant11]

Gut is the game. Nobody flips, and there's never enough information to eliminate all incorrect possibilities. Round 5, we will be going by gut. Round 2, we are going by gut. You even supply reasons there for legitimate reads - are my many posts suggesting town or scum? Is our argument tvs or tvt (or, from other players' perspectives, svs)? This game is literally "what if mafia didn't have clear flips and you had to depend on reads way more??"

You still haven't explained to me how Dino + Paradox + _______ gives us more information than any other set if N1 is, in fact, always going to turn up a town point.

Without a guarantee of more information, then, resistance should always be trying to find a set that earns a town point - either all three town, or one town and two scum who can't coordinate.

From my POV, TGP is scummy because Math is not, and I've that said my current theory, shooting from the hip, is one scum in each D1 pair.

In 37 your last question may be one we never get answers to. There are 0 ways for town to guarantee getting enough information to win. Sometimes a single resistance member will have all the information there is, but they still have to come across as believable to their teammates.

[Irrelephant11]

Let's pretend for a minute that Ico and TGP are scum.

Math and TGP pass a mission.
Math, TGP, and you fail a mission.
Math and TGP pass a mission.

Like????
What has your strategy gained here, except putting you, the newcomer, in a bad light, and helping TGP get on every mission till the end?

Waiting on this answer.


One quick thought about putting up two scum as a strategy: While it doesn't guarantee a town point, it is easier to do than get all three town in a mission. There are 3/10 teams that include two spies, and only 1/10 that include no spies.

pedit: lol kinda yeah

[Irrelephant11]

I mean, I was more excited about the possibility of getting a resistance point by neither spy wanting to be double outed, or of finding a spy dropping breadcrumbs. The game gets much easier when we have the last three shots to get one point, or one player we can ignore.

I'm 95% ready to bet the game on this, you're the only one giving any sort of towntells so far. But I don't know if any potential third resistance member feels the same, which is sort of important to be able to

implement

any plans.

Also I will continue to wait for TGP to show up before voting.

What does your spyclaim thing mean? I don't understand.

[Irrelephant11]

Ohhh right right yes. I originally read what you wrote as "anyone speculating from here on out about who did what at night is a spy" which I was like no... But I agree, yes.

[Irrelephant11]

Fun, this game has developed

[Irrelephant11]

i get the sense that i'm gonna have to explain like every single thing i do lol

read between the linessss

Nah I gotchu.

You thought tgp was scum yet you didn't put him in your first vote today.

False. 42

And then you didn't put yourself in the mission when if you're town you could do that and still put 2 spies with you.

I mean anyone who's saying "let's make a team that has two scum" is never going to include themselves in their suggested team? It's the obvious converse to how anyone who says "let's make a team with no scum" has to include themselves.

This doesn't even need to say anything about reads, just clearing up these points for BuJ

[Irrelephant11]

elephant solve bujaber/iconeum alignments for me pls

Working on it. I disagree with many of BuJ's points, obviously (and I've played resistance IRL dozens if not hundreds of times too, we can all be experts - especially since you can just lie if you're spy), but I'm unclear on if his bad reasoning is intentionally bad or just incidentally bad. He's trying hard, which is town, but always ends up pushing in a direction that, from my POV, is scummy. Probably I'd say BuJ is spy?

Ico scum reads me though so that's gonna make working together real hard if we need to.

Where is TGP tho. One post does not an alignment make.

Indeed. The town core has been determined and scum are being cut from the mission.

lol.

[Irrelephant11]

In the scenario you describe yes I would look really bad but how will the spy among math/paradox win in that case if they faked a pass on mission 3? Mission 4 you pick them again. If it fails it likely points to math/paradox. Because what are the odds that the new guy in mission 2 and the new guy in mission 4 are the spies?

I ran the numbers.

Spoiler:

Ruling out the possibility of two scum on either of the first two missions (since it seems that's part of your point here), and finding every other situation where two players go on the first four missions (and in which missions 2 and 4 fail), the random likelihood that "the new guy in mission 2 and the new guy in mission 4 are the spies" is 1/4. This is a random number, so it doesn't include the fact that scum in the know can WIFOM this to death. Even if we could be sure that it pointed to math/paradox, and also could be sure that the player who hadn't gone on a mission was scum, that's still just a 50/50 shot. Including the 3/4 chance of being sure, it's a 37.75/62.25 shot at winning. Including the possibility two scum went on a mission somewhere, it's near null.

Compare to getting two scum on mission 2 passing the mission and giving a town point: 30/70 shot at randomly winning

on mission 3

; or two scum on mission 2 both failing the mission: 67/33 shot at winning by the end.

I will repeat that town cannot focus exclusively on getting information out of missions. "Let's send those three to narrow things down" usually only eliminates 1/10 possible townteams while giving scum a point. Gut is the game, and town points are the goal.

So irrelephant would you agree to me/you/tgp or do you prefer me/you/icon?

I've made it pretty clear that I'm townreading Math. Unless your question is who do I think the scum team is in which case out of these choices I'd say you and TGP.

Irrelephant, there has been strategy discussion between Math and Buj.
How do you read both of them based on that discussion?

Before you asked this I'd already expressed I find Math to be resistance and BuJ more likely to be spy than resistance. Is there a reason you're asking me to repeat this?

Also, for what it's worth, I promise to do a scum!Math read through before the game day is done.

[Irrelephant11]

Those points were meant for dino, he was last person to talk when I posted those. Sorry for the confusion.

2 things in response to you running the numbers:

A) like dino, you are not factoring in the odds of choosing 2 scum correctly after only one mission. And then the odds of them actually putting 2 sabotages/2 clears. 2 spies going in is very similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma. You may very well choose both scum for mission 2 and STILL end up with only 1 sabotage.

B) The actual process involved in trying to identify both spies now and after mission 4 is the same except that after mission 4 you have more to go on.
The difference is in the consequences. At mission 5 you get it wrong you lose or you insta win. At mission 2 you will be forced to question who to vote for at every following mission with no clear way of confirming anybody's alignment.

-Icon I wasn't the one scumreading tgp. I was just wondering if he makes sense as math's partner or if you do. Now I'm thinking it's just irrelephant.


VOTE: Buj, Icon, Paradox VOTE:

If it passes game over.

I was responding on Math's behalf.

A)Straight up lie. I have

literally

factored in those odds.

One quick thought about putting up two scum as a strategy: While it doesn't guarantee a town point, it is easier to do than get all three town in a mission. There are 3/10 teams that include two spies, and only 1/10 that include no spies.

B)I know. At this point you're just saying "there's more information later than there is now". Yeah. But you haven't proved that your route of choosing teams is better than mine. You've also argued that TGP and Math need to go on the second mission, and now your vote is not agreeing with that, with little explanation given for your change in strategy. Obviously your vote is what you think is the resistance team, but why the switch from "this is the way to clear people" to "let's just vote who I feel is resistance", which was my strategy that you disliked?

Your last sentence is a scumslip.

[Irrelephant11]

EBWOP sorry idk how I did that ignore the last post

Those points were meant for dino, he was last person to talk when I posted those. Sorry for the confusion.

2 things in response to you running the numbers:

A) like dino, you are not factoring in the odds of choosing 2 scum correctly after only one mission. And then the odds of them actually putting 2 sabotages/2 clears. 2 spies going in is very similar to the classic prisoner's dilemma. You may very well choose both scum for mission 2 and STILL end up with only 1 sabotage.

B) The actual process involved in trying to identify both spies now and after mission 4 is the same except that after mission 4 you have more to go on.
The difference is in the consequences. At mission 5 you get it wrong you lose or you insta win. At mission 2 you will be forced to question who to vote for at every following mission with no clear way of confirming anybody's alignment.

-Icon I wasn't the one scumreading tgp. I was just wondering if he makes sense as math's partner or if you do. Now I'm thinking it's just irrelephant.


VOTE: Buj, Icon, Paradox VOTE:

If it passes game over.

I was responding on Math's behalf.

A)Straight up lie. I have

literally

factored in those odds.

One quick thought about putting up two scum as a strategy: While it doesn't guarantee a town point, it is easier to do than get all three town in a mission. There are 3/10 teams that include two spies, and only 1/10 that include no spies.

B)I know. At this point you're just saying "there's more information later than there is now". Yeah. But you haven't proved that your route of choosing teams is better than mine. You've also argued that TGP and Math need to go on the second mission, and now your vote is not agreeing with that, with little explanation given for your change in strategy. Obviously your vote is what you think is the resistance team, but why the switch from "this is the way to clear people" to "let's just vote who I feel is resistance", which was my strategy that you disliked?

Your last sentence is a scumslip.

[Irrelephant11]

A) sorry I missed this post earlier. I only read the "ran the numbers" spoiler and that's what I was responding to.
3/10 to pick them.. what are the odds they only put 1 sabotage? Assuming equal chance that's 2/4 possible outcomes so it's actually only 1.5/10 to get the outcome you and math want. That is better than the 1/10 you are correct but considering that my position has been to choose math/paradox a 2nd time this is irrelevant. My opinion was that without additional info you have to pick them again regardless of how you read them.

B) I feel like I have. That was the point of my posts where I consider the different scenarios. I laid out how my strategy deals with each mission and in comparison how much your strategy relies on guess work at every turn. The problem is you can't seem to get it.

A) huh, it's almost like the math proves choosing math/paradox a second time might be a bad idea. weird.

B) Please quote me where you detail the reasoning behind your turn in strategy from "Math/Paradox must go again" to "VOTE: buj, Icon and paradox".

math pointed out earlier how the moment someone says something like "I will pass this mission" etc. they are crumbing to their partner how to handle the double-scum mission. I'm pointing out to dino (not really to you, since I'm 99.99% sure you're scum at this point) that you did just that, basically crumbing to whichever of ico/TGP for both of you to pass the mission.

[Irrelephant11]

Okay, okay, I'll help us cool down for a sec. I misread you're last "B)". My bad.

You were saying "I have shown how my strategy is better than yours"

not

"I have shown the development in my strategy from what I had been saying to the recent placement of my vote".

To which my new response is two parts:
-Please explain, in light of the numbers I ran, if and how you think your strategy of keeping the same two people over and over is better than trying to put 0/2 scum on the second mission.
-Please explain your vote, given your hardline stance that TGP/dino ought to go on mission 2.

[Irrelephant11]

Ohhhhhh wow there's actually a reason: TGP and Math are unlikely to be spies together.

Keeping them does give more information for later.

Hm.

I need to rethink, clearly.

idk about y'all but I'm having fun

[Irrelephant11]

No. Why do you think I'm scum? I still think math is town, BuJ is more likely scum than town, and you're still more likely town than TGP.

I almost want to go with TGP's vote because it's indirectly the strategy of betting the game on me and math but if I find it unlikely that TGP and math are the same alignment (which I still do) then this just seems like a bad scenario.

Me/Math/Ico makes sense to me.

[Irrelephant11]

Oh right we've all checked in

VOTE: Iconeum, Mathdino, Irrelephant11

[Irrelephant11]

I mean I still want to throw out there that your fav strategy is one where, if TGP is scum (or math, if I'm being theoretical), you don't "find out" till mission 4, at which point we've all narrowed it down to TGP/dino and1/2 other players, depending on POV. And by "find out" I mean "have a 3/4 chance of being right". Not to mention if you're scum you already know if TGP/math has a scum and your plan is auto-bad, because you'll always suggest untruths later that fit with your "step-by-step process".

[Irrelephant11]

Math is right here. The relationship between 1 and 2 means nothing if 1 means nothing. 1 means nothing. Ergo, the relationship between mission 1 and 2 means nothing.

On the other hand, I don't think this is BuJ's main point (if it is I'm not seeing argued very well), but it can be argued that two players who are definitely not scum together should go on missions 2 and 3. I would say it's true that Math and TGP aren't scum together. I don't agree with the argument still, though, because I

also

don't think TGP and Math are

town

together.

[Irrelephant11]

My read on BuJ is still bad. My personal perspective is BuJ is annoyed that two resistance found each other and is throwing maximum shade at us so as to pocket the third member.

Actually, we can maybe just go back to BuJaber, Iconeum, TGP at this point?

[Irrelephant11]

Well after Spyfall you're scum always forever. Nah jk I can't even imagine you on any scumteams so the game is yours if you're a spy

TGP/Ico seems weird to me as a team. I guess they could just be observing town self-destruct? But it seems unlikely. I think BuJ is the talkative scum here, and TGP is more likely his partner than Ico - again because of the first two posts of the game.

[Irrelephant11]

So sorry everyone - like I said at game start, weekends are hard for me to participate. Usually I can get in at least a post, and this weekend that just didn't happen.
Thanks so much for the extension.

@math please show me town BuJ? Also, I'll throw out there that both scum-BuJaber and scum-math seem more than capable of voting in a team with their partner.

[Irrelephant11]

Also, wait, math, you just said you see the argument for town BuJ (which I don't), and you've been saying all game you see me as resistance as well. Why is it more likely that your vote analysis has shown you who is town than your reads, especially given how many meaningless votes there have been?

I think it's time to go through the aforementioned "maybe math is spy" read through...

[Irrelephant11]

wowwwww that was rough. Honestly, the biggest problem I had was not being able to lean on the board game format of a leader. When everyone gets to vote for anything, it's much easier to read votes as math did. I played towny well, I thought, but lesson learned on keeping closer track of my own votes (also on bussing my partner too hard).

Great game math, TGP, Ico, you all did well. BuJ, I submit that you played a better game than I. I had fun in the short amount of time we had, but wow do I have a lot to improve on before playing another round.

[Irrelephant11]

I mean, maybe? I always saw math and Ico going again, so. Sorry to end it early!

[Irrelephant11]

I was trying to pocket more town, set up a you/Ico vs TGP/me/math perspective. It crashed when I had no choice but to suspect math

[Irrelephant11]

It's funny I was having a hard time actually deciphering if your strategy talk was good strategy. I just decided not to care and focus on making it sound like the

way

you said things was scummy, while arguing that other strategies are good too

[Irrelephant11]

Formal request for future Resistance games: include the leader mechanic.

Personally I think this version is overly townsided. Losing the leader mechanic reduces the amount of WIFOM scum can use, lets town do closeup vote analysis, and removes the ability for scum to gain points by repeatedly passing until scum is the leader and town

has

to let their team through or give spies a point (this is actually a key way I have won as scum in many IRL games). The lack of daychat and the ability to re-read in a forum already work in town's favor. Leader mechanic is one of the genius things about resistance's balance.